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1、 EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q2/2023)2 EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS Quarterly report(Q2/2023)A report produced for the European Travel Commission by Tourism Economics Brussels,July 2023 ETC Market Intelligence Report EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q2/2023)3 Copyright 2023 European Trav

2、el Commission EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q2/2023)All rights reserved.The contents of this report may be quoted,provided the source is given accurately and clearly.Distribution or reproduction in full is permitted for own or internal use only.While we encourage distribution via publicly access

3、ible websites,this should be done via a link to ETCs corporate website,referring visitors to the Research/Trends Watch section.The designations employed and the presentation of material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinions whatsoever on the part of the Executive Unit of th

4、e European Travel Commission.Data sources:This report includes data from the TourMIS database,STR,IATA,Eurocontrol,UNWTO,and Transparent.Economic analysis and forecasts are provided by Tourism Economics and are for interpretation by users according to their needs.Published by the European Travel Com

5、mission Rue du March aux Herbes,61,1000 Brussels,Belgium Website:www.etc-corporate.org Email: ISSN No:2034-9297 This report was compiled and edited by:Tourism Economics(an Oxford Economics Company)on behalf of the ETC Market Intelligence Group.Cover:Aerial view of An ancient stone bridge called Devi

6、ls bridge near the town of Ardino.Amazing Reflection of Devils Bridge in Arda river and Rhodopes mountain,Kardzhali Region,Bulgaria Image ID:1819430408 Copyright:Todor Stoyanov EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q2/2023)4 FOREWORD Europes tourism recovery is maintaining its momentum despite economic

7、headwinds,with one quarter of reporting destinations surpassing pre-pandemic levels of foreign arrivals based on year-to-date data.Inflation and increased travel costs are squeezing consumers wallets,however,travel spending is still prioritised against other discretionary spending.Holidaymakers cont

8、inue to be primarily driven by cost,which is reflected by recent data showing that more affordable destinations are among the best performers,notably Trkiye,Bulgaria,Montenegro and Serbia.Those allowing travel from Russia are among these destinations reporting a positive performance.Trends this summ

9、er are looking extraordinarily positive based on air ticket sales data from IATA,however,the air travel experience and connectivity still need to improve.Intra-European travel demand continues its strong position,mainly driven by the Netherlands,France,and Italy.Longer-haul,the US is the standout pe

10、rformer with a stronger dollar as the main driver,while markets in Asia&Pacific still have a long way to go regarding travel recovery.Europes tourism outlook for the remainder of the year will be for slower than expected growth due to high and persistent inflation and sluggish economic growth.Key qu

11、estions remain,such as the shape that revenge travel will adopt this summer.As travel projections are strong for the season,the threat and concerns about over-tourism increase.Its negative impacts on tourism sites,the environment and the lives of residents call for destinations to offer more alterna

12、tive options and implement strategies that ease the pressure on tourism hotspots.Tourism strategies that embrace travel dispersal will support destinations in addressing tourism massification while spreading the benefits of tourism to lesser-known areas.Tourism should be leveraged as a force for goo

13、d to balance economic growth with current social,economic and environmental needs to ensure a responsible and more sustainable future.The most recent edition of the European Tourism Trends&Prospects quarterly report comprehensively analyses key tourism and economic trends in Europe and relevant sour

14、ce markets.The latest report includes a special feature on emerging trends for the peak summer season supported by air passenger data and trends from IATA.This analysis provides a better understanding of the broader picture in terms of full recovery and the destinations and source markets driving tr

15、avel growth.Jennifer Iduh Head of Research&Insights European Travel Commission(ETC)EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q1/2023)5 TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY.6 1.TOURISM PERFORMANCE SUMMARY 2023.9 2.GLOBAL TOURISM FORECAST SUMMARY.13 3.RECENT INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE.14 AIR TRANSPORT.14 ACCOMMODATI

16、ON.17 4.SPECIAL FEATURE:A PREVIEW OF SUMMER 2023.20 5.KEY SOURCE MARKET PERFORMANCE.25 6.ORIGIN MARKET SHARE ANALYSIS.39 7.ECONOMIC OUTLOOK.51 APPENDIX 1.61 APPENDIX 2.62 EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q1/2023)6 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY BUOYANT TRAVEL ENTHUSIASM WILL DRIVE EUROPEAN TOURISM RECOVERY THIS

17、 SUMMER,DESPITE ECONOMIC WOES SLOWING 2023 GROWTH PROSPECTS In the first quarter of 2023,Europe has recovered to about 95%of 2019 levels of international tourist arrivals based on data from reporting destinations.Strong travel enthusiasm has supported this recovery despite stubborn inflation and hig

18、her living costs straining consumers wallets.Before the peak season,sunseekers will make no concessions on travel and price sensitivity will continue to benefit destinations offering more value for money.Europes tourism will most probably have to navigate the travel disruptions experienced last summ

19、er in terms of short-staffed airports and accommodation establishments,and soaring travel costs.Nevertheless,the EU has also demonstrated some economic resilience so far in 2023 with lower energy prices,encouraging employment rates,and gradually receding inflation1.However,risks to the tourism outlo

20、ok remain and are notably stemming from stubbornly high core inflation and uncertainty around the impact of Russias war in Ukraine.One in four reporting destinations surpassed pre-pandemic levels of foreign tourist arrivals,including value for money destinations such as Serbia(+27%),Bulgaria(+21%),M

21、ontenegro(+12%)and Trkiye(+9%).Poland also exceeded pre-pandemic levels by 4%based on data to March.This impressive performance could be attributable to the influx of journalists,official delegations,soldiers,and their families due to the war in Ukraine along with Ukrainian refugees staying at Polis

22、h accommodation establishments.At the other end of the spectrum,only 5 out of 27 destinations registered falls in foreign arrivals below 20%compared to 2019.These include Hungary(-20%),Germany(-21%),Finland(-22%),Lithuania(-28%)and Latvia(-32%).Foreign Visits Growth to European Destinations 2023 Yea

23、r-to-Date 1 https:/ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_23_2723 EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q2/2023)7 SUMMER 2023 IS POISED FOR ROBUST PASSENGER DEMAND BUT IS NOT DISRUPTION-FREE European international RPKs2 have continued a steady recovery,achieving 90.8%of 2019 levels in April.St

24、rong travel demand during the peak summer season reflects a buoyant recovery in European air ticket sales during May-September 2023,reaching 91%of pre-pandemic levels3.However,it remains to be seen whether airline capacity can meet demand this summer,although current schedules suggest this will be s

25、ufficient.At the same time,potential disruptions from aviation strikes,labour shortages and war-related airspace closures still pose great uncertainty for the sector.Recovery of summer air travel ticket sales,2023 THE US HAS PROVED TO BE THE STRONGEST LONG-HAUL SOURCE MARKET SO FAR IN 2023 US travel

26、lers taking advantage of favourable exchange rates4 should drive many European destinations recovery this summer.With continued high inflation and a potential recession weighing on American households,affordability will be a key factor in holidaymakers choice of travel destination within Europe.Most

27、 recent data shows that 52%of reporting destinations have surpassed pre-pandemic levels of US tourist arrivals.Southern Mediterranean destinations such as Portugal(+79%),Trkiye(+78%),and Montenegro(+43%)have reported substantial growth from this market.In Eastern Europe,Latvia(+135%)and Poland(+51%)

28、also recorded significant growth in US arrivals,both based on data to March.In the case of Latvia,growth could be connected to VFR travel from the Latvian diaspora living outside Europe,while journalists reporting on Russias war in Ukraine and an influx of US military personnel could explain Polands

29、 performance.A recent Forbes Advisor survey indicated that 87%of surveyed Americans expect to travel at least as much as they did in 2022,with one in two respondents expecting to travel even more in 20235.“Long-haul travel has been lagging during Europes tourism bounce back,but we are now seeing how

30、 it is gradually returning to regain market share this year.Nevertheless,the tourism industry has both a responsibility and an opportunity to protect the resources it depends on,including the natural environment,wildlife,and cultural heritage that bring travel experiences to life.Sustainability is 2

31、 Revenue Passenger Kilometres 3 https:/www.iata.org/en/iata-repository/publications/economic-reports/strong-ticket-sales-point-to-a-busy-summer-travel-season/4 Despite the US dollar weaking against the Euro in recent months 5 https:/ PacificEuropeNorth AmericaIndustry-wideSource:IATA S&E Economics,u

32、sing data from DDS for tickets purchased in Q1 of 2023 and 20192019 level,100%EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q2/2023)8 developing into a competitive advantage and one of the most important potential unique selling points of destinations.In the future,tourism competitiveness will directly depend o

33、n destinations progress in offering more sustainable and climate-friendly travel.”said Eduardo Santander,Executive Director of the European Travel Commission(ETC).US Visits and Overnights to Select Destinations Jennifer Iduh(ETC Executive Unit)With the contribution of the ETC Market Intelligence Com

34、mittee -40-20020406080LatviaPortugalTrkiyePolandSerbiaMontenegroSwedenLithuaniaMonacoCyprusSpainDenmarkMaltaSwitzerlandFinlandNorwayEstoniaBulgariaIcelandSlovakiaCroatiaAustriaSloveniaGreeceLuxembourgRomaniaGermanyCzech Rep.BelgiumHungaryArrivalsNightsSource:TourMIS*date varies(Jan-May)by destinatio

35、n2023 year-to-date*,%change relative to 2019 levelsLatvia,135.5%(A)EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q1/2023)9 1.TOURISM PERFORMANCE SUMMARY 2023 SUMMARY European destinations continue to benefit from rising international travel this year.The region recovered the bulk of its travel last year,benefit

36、ting from a strong and swift recovery in intra-regional travel.Following a strong start to the year,recent data among reporting destinations has become slightly softer,especially in terms of nights,now averaging 3%below 2019 levels.In contrast,arrivals data has been stable,just 5.8%below 2019 levels

37、 for this year so far.Household finances and discretionary spending will remain strained going into the peak travel season in Europe(June to August),but this should not derail the overall recovery.Destinations will see stronger demand from transatlantic travel going into the summer,but also increase

38、d travel from other long-haul markets across the Asia Pacific region.Foreign Visits and Overnights to Select Destinations -40-30-20-100102030SerbiaMontenegroBulgariaPortugalDenmarkTrkiyeCyprusMaltaCroatiaIcelandPolandNetherlandsSpainNorwayBelgiumGreeceSwedenAustriaLuxembourgRomaniaSloveniaMonacoSwit

39、zerlandSlovakiaItalyEstoniaHungaryFinlandGermanyCzech Rep.LithuaniaLatviaArrivalsNightsSource:TourMIS*date varies(Jan-May)by destination2023 year-to-date*,%change relative to 2019 levelsSerbia,61.0%(N)Montenegro,45.7%(N)In 2023 to date arrivals to European destinations are now just 5.8%below 2019 le

40、vels and nights 3%below,according to reporting destinations through the TourMIS platform.Compared to last quarter,recent data for arrivals have remained strong,while nights have come in slightly softer.Long-haul travel,which has been a missing piece of the recovery for European destinations should s

41、tart to regain market share this year.The US is already leading the way,with many tourists having already pre-booked and paid for trips to lock in the favourable exchange rate.Limited air travel from Russia to Europe continues to weigh on travel demand across most destinations in the region.Destinat

42、ions among the handful that still have flight routes to Russia are benefiting the most,such as Serbia and Trkiye.European air traffic has started to take a positive turn going into peak season with volumes edging closer to pre-pandemic levels in mid-June.Despite inflation continuing to weigh on disp

43、osable income,households are still willing to spend money to travel.But because of this,we expect more to become price conscious.This will benefit cheaper destinations such as Trkiye,Montenegro and Bulgaria and likely see them outperform more expensive options such as Monaco as we move into the peak

44、-season.EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q2/2023)10 Recent data up to May for reporting destinations have shown a slightly softer recovery in nights,however the recovery has become more broad-based.This quarter,36%of reporting destinations have seen nights exceed 2019 levels,compared to 33%last qua

45、rter.Markets more reliant on Russian travel including Finland,Latvia and Cyprus continue to feel the impact of the ongoing travel restrictions between many EU countries and Russia.Flights out of Russia are now only to a handful of destinations,with many of the countries reliant on this demand not in

46、cluded in this list.Recent data continues to show a significant weakness in Russian tourism in most destinations.However,Russian outbound travel has not stopped entirely just the destinations have changed as tourists have been restricted by tighter visa restrictions.Last quarters report found that R

47、ussian tourists have also played a significant role in the large number of arrivals to Serbia due to visa-free travel and cultural cohesion between the countries.Trkiye has also become one of the top destinations for many European and extra-European source markets,despite a more gentle outturn in re

48、cent months.Some of this is coming from an influx of Russian tourists due to the lack of choice in destinations.Furthermore,its favourable exchange rate has made it more affordable for all source markets relative to other holiday destinations.Montenegro has stood out as a popular destination within

49、Europe.One of the reasons for this is increased promotional activity recently by the National Tourism Organization of Montenegro in markets where there is a noticeable growth.This has contributed to arrivals and/or nights fully recovering back to where they were before the pandemic from France,India

50、,Brazil,UK and the Netherlands.On the other end of the scale,more than half of the weakest destinations are in Eastern Europe such as Lithuania,Czechia,Hungary and Slovakia.Travel sentiment for this area could still be somewhat affected by the war in Ukraine.European air traffic,total network manage

51、r area The recovery in air traffic volumes largely stalled for most of last year.But the tide looks to be turning in Q2 of this year,with data up until the middle of June showing recovery edging closer to pre-pandemic levels.This can be attributed to increased airline capacity across both European a

52、nd foreign airline carriers which will hit the market in time for the peak summer months and should allow demand growth.Examples of air carriers contributing to this are American Airlines who are planning to run additional routes to and from the UK and Lufthansa purchasing additional aircrafts.-63-6

53、6-64-64-62-52-36-30-29-26-22-22-30-31-25-19-15-15-13-12-13-11-12-12-13-13-13-9-8-7-70-60-50-40-30-20-100Jan-21Feb-21Mar-21Apr-21May-21Jun-21Jul-21Aug-21Sep-21Oct-21Nov-21Dec-21Jan-22Feb-22Mar-22Apr-22May-22Jun-22Jul-22Aug-22Sep-22Oct-22Nov-22Dec-22Jan-23Feb-23Mar-23Apr-23May-23Jun-23Source:Eurocontr

54、ol%vs 2019,7-day moving average EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q2/2023)11 This is not however representative of all destinations in Europe.Breaking down air traffic volumes to a country level,Croatia,Portugal and Serbia still continue to exceed pre-pandemic levels so far this year.In contrast,Ger

55、many joins a handful of Eastern European countries experiencing a poor recovery in air traffic with some of this due to industrial action.The weakness in countries such as Latvia and Slovenia can be attributed to the war in Ukraine,especially with no-fly zones and re-directed air routes.However,the

56、German outlook is surprising as it has continued to lag behind other European counties in terms of air recovery.Possible reasons for this are that there has been a shift to alternative forms of transport for domestic travel such as road and rail.In addition,the low-cost airline Ryanair has significa

57、ntly cut capacity in Germany,in favour of other European markets such as Austria.At a time where travellers are more price conscious,less availability of low-cost flights will impact travel demand.Real household disposable income across key source markets for Europe Inflation will continue to impact

58、 holiday affordability throughout this year,feeding through to travel demand and spend through weaker household disposable income.Despite inflation having peaked from the highs experienced in 2022 across all the markets above,prices will continue to rise for tourists because demand for flights is cu

59、rrently ahead of supply,despite carriers adding additional routes for the summer.Prices may rise even further because,as of February,the EU initially approved an update of the blocs carbon pricing rules on top of jet fuel prices which remain high.With some higher debt after the pandemic,airlines hav

60、e more limited capacity to absorb additional costs.The cost of flying is not the only factor for tourists when assessing affordability accommodation,attractions and food&drink are also factors to consider,which have also seen some higher prices consistent with wider inflation and the rising demand.R

61、ecent data up to May have generally shown that more affordable destinations are performing better,such as Bulgaria in Eastern Europe and Portugal in Western Europe.Prices will undoubtedly rise further during peak-season,and this may lead to an acceleration in this trend,with tourists becoming even m

62、ore price conscious.This will likely be to the detriment of more expensive destinations such as Monaco,Switzerland or Luxembourg.However,there does appear to be some willingness to pay as flight data points to growth despite fare increases and while these more expensive destinations should see slowe

63、r growth travel is not expected to fall.3,17,2-6,21,5-3,0-0,4-0,30,3-1,00,34,53,62,91,30,7-0,0-0,2-0,2-0,6-1,1-8-6-4-202468ChinaIndiaUnitedStatesBrazilSpainCanadaEurozoneFranceItalyGermany20222023Source:Oxford Economics%year EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q2/2023)12 Summary Performance,2023 YTD v

64、s.2019 Country%YTDto month%YTDto monthAustria-7.8%Jan-Apr-4.9%Jan-AprBelgium-1.1%Jan-Feb-1.1%Jan-FebBulgaria20.7%Jan-AprCroatia-7.3%Jan-May4.7%Jan-MayCyprus7.3%Jan-Apr3.4%Czech Rep.-17.2%Jan-Mar-19.5%Jan-MarDenmark12.8%Jan-AprEstonia-18.1%Jan-Apr-15.0%Jan-AprFinland-22.4%Jan-Apr-16.5%Jan-AprGermany-

65、20.7%Jan-Mar-16.6%Jan-MarGreece-3.3%Jan-Mar-Hungary-20.2%Jan-May-15.0%Jan-MayIceland-3.0%Jan-Apr4.6%Jan-AprItaly-10.9%Jan-Feb-12.2%Jan-FebLatvia-31.6%Jan-Mar-41.7%Jan-JanLithuania-28.1%Jan-Apr-26.3%Jan-AprLuxembourg-5.2%Jan-Apr-6.7%Jan-AprMalta6.3%Jan-Apr4.9%Jan-AprMonaco-8.9%Jan-Apr-13.8%Jan-AprMon

66、tenegro11.8%Jan-Apr45.7%Jan-AprNetherlands-12.2%Jan-Mar1.7%Jan-MarNorway-0.6%Jan-AprPoland3.8%Jan-Mar-1.6%Jan-MarPortugal13.6%Jan-Mar11.8%Jan-MarRomania-17.5%Jan-Apr-6.7%Jan-AprSerbia26.6%Jan-Apr61.0%Jan-AprSlovakia-10.4%Jan-Apr-18.1%Jan-AprSlovenia-9.1%Jan-Apr-7.5%Jan-AprSpain-1.9%Jan-Apr0.6%Jan-Ap

67、rSweden-4.3%Jan-AprSwitzerland-11.7%Jan-Mar-9.8%Jan-MarTrkiye9.1%Jan-AprInternational ArrivalsInternational NightsMeasures used for nights and arrivals vary by country.Available data as of 23.6.2023Source:TourMIS(http:/www.tourmis.info)(f)denotes forecast provided by member EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&P

68、ROSPECTS(Q2/2023)13 2.GLOBAL TOURISM FORECAST SUMMARY Tourism Economics global travel forecasts are shown on an inbound and outbound basis in the following table.These are the results of the Global Travel Service(GTS)model,which is updated in detail three times per year.Forecasts are consistent with

69、 Oxford Economics macroeconomic outlook according to estimated relationships between tourism and the wider economy.Full origin-destination country detail is available online to subscribers.GTS Visitor Growth Forecasts,%change year 2021202220232024202520212022202320242025data/estimate/forecastdefffde

70、fffWorld10.9%108.7%28.4%17.2%13.5%9.4%111.6%28.9%17.2%13.4%Americas22.1%92.6%22.1%12.8%7.7%23.1%102.2%22.6%10.6%8.2%North America21.2%94.6%21.4%12.8%7.8%26.9%100.3%22.8%9.9%7.9%Caribbean80.3%49.0%13.6%9.5%7.4%34.1%65.1%18.5%19.3%14.3%Central&South America-8.6%133.9%30.6%14.8%7.6%5.2%117.9%22.0%13.2%

71、8.9%Europe24.0%96.1%13.2%11.9%10.5%19.8%101.3%15.5%11.8%10.1%ETC+220.0%106.0%12.9%10.9%9.4%17.3%110.1%14.1%10.5%9.3%EU 2714.2%112.7%12.7%10.8%9.1%16.0%114.1%14.5%10.4%9.0%Non-EU69.3%44.1%15.6%16.8%16.2%36.8%52.3%20.9%18.9%14.9%Northern-4.2%181.4%15.7%8.9%8.2%3.2%198.5%18.1%9.5%7.2%Western-5.0%108.9%

72、8.1%14.1%8.3%17.0%92.0%11.5%11.0%9.1%Southern/Mediterranean59.4%92.5%13.0%8.9%7.8%23.5%119.9%14.3%9.5%9.7%Central/Eastern 30.4%38.8%22.5%20.3%24.4%35.9%51.5%21.5%16.3%13.9%-Central&Baltic11.7%102.0%20.1%9.4%15.4%26.1%76.2%15.3%11.2%11.5%Asia&the Pacific-63.4%323.7%129.2%43.5%26.7%-59.0%265.3%127.2%4

73、5.9%27.3%North East-45.7%98.8%275.4%61.5%30.3%-56.0%108.9%236.0%68.7%33.6%South East-88.1%1303.5%97.4%36.2%25.1%-76.7%754.9%93.2%27.2%20.4%South-30.2%232.6%41.5%16.2%21.2%-24.7%209.0%48.1%11.1%13.1%Oceania-43.0%239.5%59.4%19.4%16.8%-67.7%799.3%42.3%26.4%20.2%Africa14.8%88.5%41.6%16.7%16.1%9.2%83.5%3

74、9.9%12.5%14.0%Middle East18.8%159.8%36.8%8.1%9.6%49.9%138.2%25.2%8.1%9.6%*Inbound is based on the sum of the country overnight tourist arrivals and includes intra-regional flows*Outbound is based on the sum of visits to all destinationsThe geographies of Europe are defined as follows:Northern Europe

75、 is Denmark,Finland,Iceland,Ireland,Norway,Sweden,and the UK;Western Europe is Austria,Belgium,France,Germany,Luxembourg,Netherlands,and Switzerland;Central&Baltic Europe is Bulgaria,Czech Republic,Estonia,Hungary,Latvia,Lithuania,Moldova,Poland,Romania,and Slovakia;ETC+2 is all ETC members plus Swe

76、den,and the United KingdomSource:Tourism Economics based on GTS as of 25.06.2023Southern/Mediterranean Europe is Albania,Bosnia-Herzegovina,Croatia,Cyprus,Greece,Italy,Malta,Montenegro,North Macedonia,Portugal,Serbia,Slovenia,Central/Eastern Europe is Armenia,Azerbaijan,Belarus,Bulgaria,Czech Republ

77、ic,Estonia,Georgia,Hungary,Kazakhstan,Kyrgyzstan,Latvia,Lithuania,Moldova,Poland,Romania,Russian Federation,Slovakia,and Ukraine;Inbound*Outbound*EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q2/2023)14 3.RECENT INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE AIR TRANSPORT There has been a continuation of global air traffic recovery in 2

78、023 according to data for the first four months of the year.RPKs grew in April over the previous month across all geographies and moved closer to 2019 levels.Domestic traffic overall has now surpassed 2019 levels,indicating a full recovery in that market segment,while the international recovery tren

79、d has continued in all regions.Most notably,domestic traffic in China showed significant progress in this period,surpassing pre-pandemic levels Europe continued to outperform pre-pandemic levels in terms of domestic RPKs.However,all RPKs in Europe were 7.8%under 2019 levels because international RPK

80、s were still 9.2%below.Domestic air travel across Europe has been higher than 2019 levels throughout the year to date.The encouraging picture is supported by airport data.Passenger traffic at Europes airports returned to within 8%of 2019 levels in April,according to the airports association,ACI Euro

81、pe.Nearly half of Europes airports recovered to pre-pandemic volumes,skewed towards those serving low-cost carriers.Forward ticket sales for the peak summer period also appear to be strong.Ticket sales for the May to September period in Europe are at 91%of their 2019 level according to IATA S&E,usin

82、g data from DDS for tickets purchased in Q1 of 2023 and 2019.International air passenger growth,Europe North America was the best performing region in terms of international air passenger recovery and is the first global region to exceed 2019 levels in international RPK recovery in April.Although As

83、ia-Pacific RPKs remain 34.2%below 2019 levels,it is still a significant improvement on the last quarter and over 2022 activity a trend which is expected to continue.One anomaly is a stalling and part reversal in Africas recovery in recent months,as well as in the Middle East despite some reported st

84、rong inbound travel performance for many countries within the region.-100-80-60-40-200Jan-21Feb-21Mar-21Apr-21May-21Jun-21Jul-21Aug-21Sep-21Oct-21Nov-21Dec-21Jan-22Feb-22Mar-22Apr-22May-22Jun-22Jul-22Aug-22Sep-22Oct-22Nov-22Dec-22Jan-23Feb-23Mar-23Apr-23Total3mth mavSource:IATA%change on 2019,RPK EU

85、ROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q2/2023)15 International Monthly Air Passenger Growth Meanwhile,data from Eurocontrol show that,compared to 2019,European flight volumes were down just 9.5%in April 2023,representing a recovery in flight volumes relative to 2022.The last Quarterly Report suggested tha

86、t the plateau in this capacity measure was indicative of supply constraints hampering continued recovery.In March,flight volumes in Europe were also affected by some additional factors,including industrial action by the ATC air traffic controllers in France and very significant transport network str

87、ikes in Germany.Flight Volumes in European Network Area There remains considerable divergence between European countries in terms of how well they have recovered in terms of flight volumes.On a three-month rolling average basis,Greece has fallen out of the group of countries which have seen growth r

88、elative to the pre-pandemic period.However,Croatia,Portugal and Serbia which were all in positive territory relative to pre-pandemic levels in the last Quarterly Report have been joined by Cyprus as growth markets.Slovenia,Germany,Latvia and Finland are the weakest performing countries in the Euroco

89、ntrol area.The situation in Latvia is potentially being affected by its proximity to Ukraine and Belarus,even though the conflict is hundreds of kilometres away.However,there has been some recent improvement in flight volumes relative to the previous quarter.The outlook in Finland is also similarly

90、being affected by the war in Ukraine,more so than Latvia as it borders Russia.But almost all countries are still seeing improving flight volumes in data out to April.AfricaAsia/PacificEuropeLatin AmericaMiddle EastN.America-50%-45%-40%-35%-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%Jan-23Feb-23Mar-23Apr-23Source:IAT

91、A%change vs.2019,RPK-100-90-80-70-60-50-40-30-20-10010Total3MMASource EuroControl%change compared to same month 2019 EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q2/2023)16 Germany has consistently lagged other European countries in terms of air recovery.The situation is given context by having been identified

92、 by low-cost carrier,Ryanair,as one of only two markets(the other being Norway far smaller in market terms)where its flight numbers are still beneath 2019 levels.According to Cirium,Ryanairs planned German departures for 2023 fall more than 7,100 short of 2019(over 14%).In contrast,planned departure

93、s from Italy are up more than 30%.European air traffic by country,total flights arriving and departing Passenger load factors(PLF)have generally continued to increase as demand remains robust.In April,passenger load factors rose to 81.5%globally.Europe and North America had the highest international

94、 PLF levels at 83.3%and 84.0%respectively.In the Middle East passenger load factors have fallen back to 76.4%,making it the lagging region with the exception of Africa,where the same indicator also fell in April.Monthly passenger load factor In terms of industry finance,IATA expects airlines to show

95、 profits in 2023 for the first time since 2019,after the impact of Covid-19 in 2020 and 2021 and significantly elevated fuel prices over 2022.Although on a per passenger basis,the profit forecast is limited to$2.20,it is still a remarkable recovery,indicating the resilience of the sector and passeng

96、ers continued appetite for air travel.In the latest update of the global outlook produced by IATA and Oxford Economics(the Air Passenger Forecast database),air travel is still expected to double globally by 2040 with a 3.4%compound CyprusGreeceSerbiaPortugalMaltaCroatiaSpainIrelandItalyLuxembourgMon

97、tenegroBulgariaPolandRomaniaBelgiumNorwayHungaryFranceNetherlandsSwitzerlandLithuaniaDenmarkUKAustriaSlovakiaEstoniaCzech Rep.SwedenLatviaGermanyFinlandSloveniaTotal*-40-30-20-100102030405060latest rolling 3 month average vs.same period 2019pp improvement vs.previous rolling 3 month averageSource:Eu

98、rocontrol%change vs.2019,no.flightsAfricaAsia/PacificEuropeLatin AmericaMiddle EastN.America0102030405060708090Jan-23Feb-23Mar-23Apr-23Source:IATALoad factor,%ASKMonthly Passenger Load Factor EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q2/2023)17 average growth rate(CAGR).As a more mature market,Europes CAGR

99、is expected to be 2.1%,which still represents an addition of over 650 million passengers per annum by 2040 relative to pre-pandemic levels.Clear downside risks remain,including ongoing high energy prices,along with lingering high inflation and interest rates,some signs of weakening consumer confiden

100、ce and the challenge of the sectors transition to Net Zero by 2050,which could add significantly to prices.Specific additional challenges will also be faced in France,where a ban on domestic flights on routes under two-and-a-half hours by train came into force in May 2023.This new rule is part of an

101、 effort to reduce carbon emissions by 40%by 2030 but is likely only to affect around 12%of domestic flights since most domestic traffic is between Paris and the far South and connecting flights are also exempted.ACCOMMODATION Hotel performance data collected by STR reflects a continued slowdown in R

102、evPAR6 growth across Europe relative to the same period in 2022.Growth in the component metrics have become more balanced in more recent data for April and May,whereas before it was largely driven by occupancy growth.The latest data shows annual growth in RevPAR for Europe at 34.9%,occupancy growth

103、at 17.7%and ADR at 14.6%.Since last quarter,RevPAR,ADR and occupancy growth rates relative to the same period last year have all softened,with the exception of occupancy in the Middle East and Africa which has grown from 9.0%to 9.7%.Performance in the Asia-Pacific region continues to lead the way in

104、 terms of growth this year so far.Part of this is due to travel in the region coming from a lower base than other regions due to more prolonged travel restrictions.Elsewhere,growth in RevPAR across the Americas 13.3%and the Middle East/Africa 13.8%are very similar.Global hotel performance The strong

105、 growth in RevPAR across Europe so far this year is evident across all regions.Occupancy growth is the key driver across most regions with the exception of Eastern and Southern Europe.But 6 Revenue per available room 010203040506070Asia/PacificAmericasEuropeMiddle East/AfricaOccADR()RevPAR()Source:S

106、TRJan-May year-to-date,%change year ago EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q2/2023)18 Western Europe continues to be the fastest growing region,with RevPAR growing by 44.8%,driven by occupancy growth of 25.3%and ADR growth of 15.6%.RevPAR across Eastern Europe has strengthened in recent months,with g

107、rowth now 6.6%higher than for Europe as a whole and just behind the outturn for Western Europe.This improvement gives rise to optimism as the data in both periods reflects the uncertainty and tensions arising from the war in Ukraine.Northern Europe remains the weakest performing region in terms of R

108、evPAR,ADR and occupancy.However,recent data has come out slightly stronger,relative to last year,especially for occupancy rates 12.3%and RevPAR 23.5%.There has been little movement in ADR with growth remaining fairly similar to where it was last quarter.At a country level the outlook varies consider

109、ably,even for countries within the same region.Some Eastern European countries are outperforming the region in terms of both occupancy and RevPAR for example Czechia and Slovakia.These do not only outperform their region,but are also some of the highest across Europe in terms of growth relative to l

110、ast year.Elsewhere,occupancy rates and RevPAR are growing particularly strongly in Austria 40.8%and 64.4%and the Netherlands 34.8%and 61.6%.Trkiye stands out in terms of ADR with the strongest growth this year so far at 33%in EUR terms,likely driven by the booming luxury market.European hotel perfor

111、mance SHORT-TERM RENTALS Elevated rates remain the prevailing trend for short-term rentals in numerous European countries,and globally over Q2 of 2023.Average prices for a two-bedroom vacation rental now sit around$150 globally per night,compared to$116 in 2019.In terms of rural and urban demand,dem

112、and rates have stagnated since Q1,sustaining the gap between the two market types.As such,the share of reservations in urban areas remains around 10%-15%lower in 2023 compared to the first four months of 2019.Part of this demand has shifted towards vacation rentals in beach and lake areas,which has

113、increased up to 18%in April,from around 11%in 2019.Several major countries are witnessing consistently rising international travel.In June 2023,France exhibited a domestic share of guests of 52%,lower than the corresponding month in 2019.The decrease in the share of domestic guests is also an indica

114、tion of international travel picking up 05101520253035404550EuropeEastern EuropeNorthern EuropeSouthern EuropeWestern EuropeOccADR()RevPAR()Source:STRJan-May year-to-date,%change year ago EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q2/2023)19 heading into the peak summer season,as the share of domestic guests

115、 in France was still 69%in February of this year.In June 2023,France and Spain are seeing 3%and 4%growth respectively in international travel compared to the same period last year.In terms of variations in European reservations in Q2 2023,France,Italy,Spain and Great Britain all show positive trends

116、,exceeding 2019 levels.The European average on May 10,2020,stood at-71%,on May 8,2022,the rate was at 1%while most recently on May 7 2023,that European average stood at 25%,all demonstrating the positive trajectory.Variation in European reservations vs 2019 Scandinavian countries specifically,are al

117、l experiencing higher ADRs and occupancy on-the-books rates,ahead of this summer compared to 2022.On average,yearly summer demand has risen 7-9%in all of the countries examined.Sweden garnered the highest occupancy on-the-books rates,followed by Denmark,Norway,and Finland.On average,summer pricing f

118、or two-bedroom listings has also risen since last year in these countries.Denmark and Sweden see the highest growth in ADR,up by 18%and 15%respectively.Finland and Norway follow with a 6%and 4%increase.An analysis of Revenue Per Available Rental(RevPAR)over European markets(for markets of over 10,00

119、0+2-bedroom listings)showed that Italy,along with Great Britain,accounted for the most cities in the top 25 revenue-generating cities measured in Q1&Q2 of 2023.This insight shows that there has been a steady flow of visitors seeking accommodation in these locations.-120-100-80-60-40-20020406080Europ

120、eFranceItalySpainGreat BritainSource:TransparentRelative to 2019 EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q2/2023)20 4.SPECIAL FEATURE:A PREVIEW OF SUMMER 2023 SUMMARY As we enter the European high-season June-late August,schedules and bookings data are important indicators of whether summer 2023 will prov

121、e stronger than pre-pandemic levels,despite the inflationary environment squeezing consumers incomes.Travel decisions this summer will be price-driven for many consumers,with weaker economic conditions tied to rising inflation putting pressures on travellers budgets.Crucially,travellers are still pr

122、ioritising travel over material goods purchases,meaning that this summers bookings data looks strong,despite the challenges facing households.Capacity is also rising to allow this continued growth,in a change from the more constrained situation in 2022.Scheduled seats to and from Europe Intra-Europe

123、an travel trends are still strong following a bumper 2022,with European air travel capacity at 96%of pre-pandemic levels this summer.According to bookings data,international air ticket sales into or within Europe are at 90%of pre-pandemic levels,with domestic slightly trailing at 0%20%40%60%80%100%1

124、20%Source:IATA Sustainability&Economics,using OAG dataRelative to the same month in 2019September 2023:96%European flight scheduling is returning to its pre-pandemic highs of 2019,with planned seat capacity at 96%of pre-pandemic levels this summer.Traditional tourism destinations like France,Italy,S

125、pain and Portugal appear to have robust demand coming into the peak season according to booking data,despite significant price increases since last year.This summer may prove a particularly strong one for Eastern Europe,with the invasion of Ukraine changing travel patterns for Russian tourists and t

126、he lower prices enticing new visitors away from their more traditional travel destinations.Both transatlantic travel and the return in travel from the Asia Pacific region,specifically China,is a welcome relief for the long-haul travel market.Staff shortages may still drag on demand,though airlines h

127、ave had much more time to adjust to peak demand,which posed serious challenges last summer.EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q2/2023)21 82%.This is a divergence from previous trends where domestic travel led the recovery,as consumers begin to substitute domestic travel to further afield and confiden

128、ce in international travel returned.We may also see some domestic transport substitution,with domestic flight restrictions introduced(for example France)and increasing social awareness of the sustainability impacts of domestic flights changing consumer behaviour.Travel pathways are also evolving,wit

129、h Germany and Spain becoming popular destinations for Latin American travellers.Although some airlines have trimmed summer schedules over the past couple of months in anticipation of some lingering staff shortages,carriers have not been forced to cut on the same scale as last year.Airlines have over

130、 50,000 transatlantic flights into Europe scheduled from June to August this year,reaching the highest levels since 2018.However,increased scheduling has done little to bring down fares,with roundtrips up 35%from last year and 24%on pre-pandemic levels.Given that the summer schedules show much promi

131、se,staffing will be the potential constraining factor for the season.Staff shortages and resultant travel delays and cancellations across Europe dominated headlines over the summer in 2022.Airlines have focussed on ensuring staffing delivers in 2023,given that forward bookings for this summer show c

132、ontinued demand growth.Generally,post-pandemic labour markets have seen a structural tightening,particularly in advanced economies.Early retirement,alongside covid deaths,illness,and a shortage of manual labour,are all contributing factors.Although we expect this to unwind,the change will take time.

133、The situation is improving,but some shortages are still likely to bite this year,as the supply of workers in the labour market is less reactive than demand.Security checks significantly increase the time taken to get workers on the ground versus other industries,as well as normal recruitment and tra

134、ining times,and as such,employment delays may constrain the ability of airlines to meet visitor demand.At the time of publication,France,the UK,Portugal,Italy,and Spain all have strikes scheduled for summer.Though some are likely to be reduced,and settlements will be reached,airlines are very wary a

135、fter the volume of disruption caused last summer.Airlines across Europe are calling on the European Commission to change legislation to mitigate the impact of strikes over the summer period.This includes extending both union and personal time required to inform employers of the intention to strike,e

136、nabling time to find alternative crew or flight plans.EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q2/2023)22 European air ticket sales Airline ticket sale patterns for the peak season appear to be returning to pre-pandemic norms.Typically,tickets for summer travel start being purchased up to a year in advance

137、 and as the season gets closer,the volume of tickets bought increases.This pattern is illustrated in the lines shown for 2018 and 2019.Over the period of the pandemic,international air ticket sales fell considerably,as travel restrictions significantly constrained travel demand.Moving from 2020 into

138、 2021,individuals cautiously resumed international travel,with the pre-pandemic traditional shape of increased air ticket sales in Q2 and Q3 returning.A strong recovery started in 2022,with the greatest volume of ticket sales in Q3 for summer travel returning.This year continues to show promise,with

139、 Q1 bookings back on par with pre-pandemic bookings volumes,which bodes well for the summer season,where the greatest volumes of ticket sales occur in Q2 and Q3.Favourite destinations for Europeans prior to the pandemic included the likes of Spain,Italy and France.These will remain popular,despite t

140、he price increases according to data reported by T.Island and coastal destinations have also proved increasingly popular once again,with the Canary Islands and Grecian Islands being the fastest-growing destinations.The drive for coastal holidays is also mirrored in Eastern Europe,where Trkiye and Cy

141、prus,traditional beach destinations,are seeing bumper summer bookings as well as in more emerging destinations like Albania and Montenegro.Looking at the year-to-date for international arrivals,relative to pre-pandemic levels,Serbia,Bulgaria,and Trkiye have been the strongest performers,all with int

142、ernational arrivals for the year to date well above pre-pandemic levels.Trkiye holds particularly strong appeal this year,as the weak Lira makes it a more affordable destination.This combined with rapidly expanding flight schedules makes the destinations more affordable than most.For all these count

143、ries,as called out in the previous special feature,the rapid recovery is largely due to the influx of Russian travellers,who face sanctions across much of the Western world due to Russias ongoing invasion of Ukraine.Given the uncertainty around the future of the conflict,it would be sensible to assu

144、me that Russian travellers will continue to have a small pool of destinations available to them over the summer months.As such,we can expect those destinations still willing to receive them to garner the benefits and outperform the average for Europe as a whole.010203040502016Q42017Q22017Q42018Q2201

145、8Q42019Q22019Q42020Q22020Q42021Q22021Q42022Q22022Q42023Q2201820192020202120222023Source:DDSMillions of international tickets EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q2/2023)23 Overnights by country Transatlantic travel has returned ahead of expectations,partly due to the strong US dollar and rapid growth

146、in ultra-low-cost carriers in the US,making European travel more widely available.Hopper,a US travel agent,cited that 37%of all searches from US-based travellers are for flights to Europe,a 9%increase on the same period in 2019.Bookings data tell the same story,with air passenger traffic between Eur

147、ope and the Americas being the first regional flight pair to surpass 2019 levels in April of this year.Allianz reports similar trends,with American visitor volumes 55%above the 2022 peak season,with London,Paris and Dublin being the top destinations.Transatlantic travellers are expected to make up a

148、 larger proportion of European travel than normal this summer.This will provide a welcome boost to destinations,as long-haul travellers tend to stay for longer,visit multiple destinations and spend more money than their intraregional counterparts.Chinas surprise return to travel in the close of 2022

149、 raises questions about when the normal pre-pandemic volumes of Chinese travellers will return.China was the largest source market for international tourism spending pre-pandemic and contributed the most to growth in travel spending from 2010 to 2019.Preferences shifted to long-haul travel over the

150、2010s for outbound Chinese travel.As such,the return of Chinese travel promises both volume and increased spending,as longer-haul travel tends to be more expensive.As China enters the second stage of post-reopening economic recovery and consumer spending slows,the latest PBOC survey(Q1 2023)shows so

151、me promise for tourism spend,with an increased number of urban residents stating the intention to spend more on travel.Much of Chinas outbound travel to long-haul markets pre-pandemic was in groups through organised tours when travelling for tourism purposes.As travel returns,tour group operators ar

152、e struggling to keep pace with the elastic tourism demand,and the Russian conflict is posing challenges for travel to Europe,with European carriers facing Russian airspace restrictions for Europe-China flights.70%80%90%100%110%120%BulgariaSerbiaTrkiyeEU AvgSource:Tourism EconomicsRelative to same mo

153、nth in 2019 EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q2/2023)24 European inbound regional source market mix The French and Dutch tourism organisations have launched campaigns to try to disperse travellers more equally across the country as concerns of over-crowding are once again prevalent.These destinatio

154、ns are placing a renewed focus on visitor value over volume as the summer approaches.In France,80%of visitors focus on just 20%of the country,with some sites introducing pre-booking systems and limiting visitor numbers and data shows that footfall does not correlate with the spend.Tourists will see

155、attractions but not necessarily spend to enter them or surrounding facilities,which when combined with increased costs means that the increased footfall is not providing proportional economic benefit.This peak season poses the first opportunity for such schemes to be tested and may prove crucial for

156、 tourism to remain socially sustainable for some of the most popular destinations across Europe.Destinations are combatting pressures on profits by reducing visitor volumes and upping prices,which,so far,there is some willingness amongst travellers to pay.This of course poses particular risk for mor

157、e expensive destinations such as Switzerland and Luxembourg,which may be deemed too expensive in the current economic climate.But overall,travel demand across the board still seems robust,and those able to afford more expensive holidays are likely to feel the pressure but to a lesser extent.14%8%6%6

158、%7%11%6%5%6%4%5%3%3%4%3%2%3%4%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%2019Q32022Q32023Q3Eastern EuropeNorth AmericaAPACMiddle EastAfricaLatin AmericaSource:OAG%of total flights,excluding Western Europe EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q2/2023)25 5.KEY SOURCE MARKET PERFORMANCE Trends discussed in this section in som

159、e cases relate to the period January to April 2023,although actual coverage varies by destination.For most countries,the latest available data point will be earlier than this.Further detailed monthly data for origin and destination,including absolute values,can be obtained from TourMIS(http:/tourmis

160、.info).SUMMARY KEY INTRA-EUROPEAN SOURCE MARKETS Intra-European travel has built on the overall positive start to the year,with the recovery continuing into Q2 of this year so far.Although recent data has been slightly softer in recent months,recovery from key source markets remains on an upward tra

161、jectory.Data for this year so far timing of data points vary among reporting countries shows recovery continuing in reported and nights,but on average trip volumes remain lower than in 2019.This is consistent with households experiencing a strain on their disposable income due to inflation.On averag

162、e,across arrivals and nights Dutch demand is recovering the fastest so far in 2023 among major source markets covered in the section(among smaller source markets,demand from Poland and Austria has also notably improved).Russia is among the weakest countries this year,as it was in the previous quarte

163、r due to heavily restricted travel to the EU as a consequence of Russias war in Ukraine.Arrivals across reporting European destinations are on average 5.8%below 2019 levels so far in 2023 based on data up to May(data points vary among reporting countries).For nights,the average across reporting coun

164、tries is 3%below 2019 levels.On average,latest trends are aligned with prior expectations for continued recovery.Montenegro is experiencing a strong recovery in tourism activity to date in 2023.This is driven by the increase in promotional activities of the National Tourism Organisation of Montenegr

165、o which has boosted its reputation and visibility as a top destination among many key source markets.Serbia is so far successful in diversifying their guest mix with airlines introducing new flights and new partnerships across source markets.This destination continues to perform strongly across most

166、 key source markets with travel volumes already exceeding 2019 levels for many markets.There are distinct trends for reporting destinations in the eastern half of the continent,driven by concerns over the ongoing war in Ukraine.The US is one of the strongest source markets this year.Many US travelle

167、rs have already locked-in the previously strong exchange rate which should ensure the recovery in many European destinations during the summer period despite a recession expected in the second half of 2023.Affordability is a key theme across most source markets for this year.Europe is experiencing h

168、igh levels of inflation,increasing costs for long-haul tourists.Travellers are still showing willingness to pay for experiences,but destinations which can provide value for money will benefit the most.EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q2/2023)26 German Visits and Overnights to Select Destinations Fo

169、r German tourism,44%of all reporting destinations showed growth in arrivals relative to 2019 for data in the first half of year to date.For all reporting destinations on average arrivals were 1.8%below pre-pandemic levels.Nights have performed stronger than arrivals so far this year,with 54%of all r

170、eporting destinations showing a rise relative to 2019,with average growth of nearly 2.4%.Serbia continues to lead the recovery as it was last quarter,with arrivals up 19.7%and nights by 48.7%with data for March and April remaining strong.This destination is known for having a comparatively lower cos

171、t of living,which could be a big draw to travellers from Germany who are facing high inflation and rising costs at home.Eastern European countries such as Latvia,Lithuania,Estonia,Romania and Hungary continued to underperform in terms of both German visits and nights,through to the end of Q1 and the

172、 start of Q2.This is a persistent trend and likely related to Russias ongoing war in Ukraine.The travel recovery in Germany continues to lag behind its Western European counterparts such as France and Italy,especially in terms of air travel.We expect to see some improvement throughout this year as a

173、 result of new routes being launched,these should provide support and boost German travel to destinations across the region.New routes include those to Belfast and Iceland.The outlook is more positive going into the medium term as Lufthansa has also placed an order for 22 Airbus and Boeing long-haul

174、 jets in March,increasing Germanys long-haul travel capacity.-45-35-25-15-551525354555SerbiaCroatiaBulgariaIcelandDenmarkCyprusFinlandMontenegroTrkiyeNorwayNetherlandsLuxembourgSloveniaCzech Rep.SwedenBelgiumPortugalSpainMaltaAustriaPolandMonacoSwitzerlandGreeceSlovakiaHungaryRomaniaEstoniaLithuania

175、LatviaArrivalsNightsSource:TourMIS*date varies(Jan-May)by destination2023 year-to-date*,%change relative to 2019Lithuania,-54.7%(N)EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q2/2023)27 French Visits and Overnights to Select Destinations The recovery in French demand largely mirrors that of Germany,with 43%of

176、 reporting destinations showing a rise in arrivals so far this year and an average recovery of around 4.1%above pre-pandemic levels.French travellers are also spending longer in these destinations,with the recovery in nights averaging 5.7%above 2019 levels so far this year.Air traffic strikes have h

177、ad some impact in Q1,but they are also going to further feed into Q2 with strikes having taken place in early June causing additional cancellations.The French Civil Aviation Authority advises airlines to cancel up to 30%of all flights on strike days,having a significant impact on travel volumes over

178、 this period.In contrast to the previous quarter,Montenegro is now ahead of all other destinations in terms of recovery,with arrivals up 118.3%and nights 72.8%.The promotional activities of the National Tourism Organization of Montenegro have intensified and is part of the reason for this recovery i

179、n French travel.Cyprus has maintained its dominant position as a popular destination for French tourists,as it was in the previous quarter.However recent data shows that it has slightly softened the magnitude of its recovery.Travel to Greece is also up strongly in 2023 to date,with growth also repor

180、ted by other Mediterranean destinations which points to continued strong performance leading up to the summer months when these destinations are favoured.Although recent months data indicates a minor improvement in the recovery in arrivals to Eastern European destinations,Hungary,Slovakia,Czechia an

181、d Poland continue to lag behind.For these,the decline in arrivals ranges is well below the average across all reporting destinations.Travel sentiment from all source markets for this region,is likely to be affected by increased uncertainty stemming from the Russias ongoing war in Ukraine.-45-35-25-1

182、5-55152535455565MontenegroCyprusGreeceLithuaniaMaltaIcelandSerbiaNorwayFinlandDenmarkPortugalTrkiyeNetherlandsSpainEstoniaSwedenBulgariaSloveniaLuxembourgSwitzerlandMonacoCroatiaBelgiumLatviaAustriaPolandRomaniaGermanyCzech Rep.SlovakiaHungaryArrivalsNightsSource:TourMIS*date varies(Jan-May)by desti

183、nation2023 year-to-date*,%change relative to 2019Montenegro,118.3%(A),72.8%(N)Cyprus,82.0%(A),82.6%(N)Greece,69.0%(A)EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q2/2023)28 Italian Visits and Overnights to Select Destinations Across all reporting destinations,arrivals from Italy were on average-4.4%below 2019

184、levels(down from 0.4%last quarter)and nights were at 1.9%(down from 4.5%last quarter)for the year to date.Icelands recovery has remained strong,with arrivals and nights up 54.4%and 56.9%on 2019 levels respectively,marking an improvement in arrivals and a slightly softer outlook in nights relative to

185、 last quarter.Iceland is a popular destination around the winter period due to its landscape and view of the northern lights,this is likely to have been a reason driving up Italian demand across this period.It is likely that as the climate improves through spring into summer,that more warmer destina

186、tions popular with Italian tourists such as Spain and Trkiye will see a stronger rise in Italian tourists.Arrivals into Trkiye are already up 19.8%on 2019 levels as of this year so far which bodes well going into the summer,especially as the Lira/Euro exchange rate remains competitive.While in Spain

187、,overnights have just about surpassed 2019 levels by 2%.The recovery in Germany as a destination for Italian tourists has persistently lagged behind at a similar scale to Eastern European destinations affected by the war.It is possible that the slow recovery in German aviation is a driver of this,es

188、pecially towards the start of the year while the industry struggled with significant industrial action.-35-155254565IcelandFinlandMaltaBulgariaTrkiyePortugalSerbiaEstoniaSwedenRomaniaCyprusLatviaSpainBelgiumDenmarkNorwayCzech Rep.NetherlandsSwitzerlandCroatiaHungaryMonacoAustriaLuxembourgSloveniaPol

189、andMontenegroGermanyLithuaniaSlovakiaArrivalsNightsSource:TourMIS*date varies(Jan-May)by destination2023 year-to-date*,%change year relative to 2019 EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q2/2023)29 British Visits and Overnights to Select Destinations For British tourists,the recovery so far remains mute

190、d,with just 30%of all reporting destinations showing growth relative to 2019 for data in the first half of 2023 in either arrivals or nights.Out of the reporting destinations above,arrivals were on average-6.0%below pre-pandemic levels and slightly lower at-7.5%for nights.It is not a coincidence tha

191、t both the top destinations for growth in arrivals from Britain are also two of the most affordable destinations in Europe,Trkiye and Montenegro,with Trkiye benefitting from its favourable exchange rate against sterling.Value for money will be a bigger factor for British tourists this year than it w

192、ill be for other countries within Europe as it is predicated the UK will have one of the highest levels of inflation within Western Europe this year.This trend is already visible in the off-peak travel season,but when prices start to rise higher in peak-summer season(late June-August),it is likely t

193、hat this trend will intensify.The recovery in Croatia has taken a turn during April and May,with the current figures for British arrivals and nights now below 2019 levels,which is a stark contrast to last quarter where Croatia demonstrated a very strong start to the year relative to other destinatio

194、ns.The reason could also be cost-driven as the official low season ended in late March.The destinations with the weakest recovery so far includes Slovakia,Slovenia and Monaco.It is likely that Monaco,will continue to lag in the recovery as prices rise into the summer months,with most of the recovery

195、 driven by luxury travellers.Germany is also lagging,potentially due to more limited air capacity.British tourists will face higher costs travelling to Europe due to rising inflation,but they will not face the additional cost of obtaining an ETIAS visa until next year.This is to allow airports time

196、to put processes in place at border security to minimise disruptions.-50-40-30-20-1001020304050MontenegroTrkiyeSerbiaPortugalIcelandDenmarkPolandNorwayLatviaGreeceCyprusSpainSwitzerlandBulgariaRomaniaBelgiumAustriaEstoniaFinlandCroatiaCzech Rep.NetherlandsSwedenMaltaHungaryLuxembourgLithuaniaGermany

197、SloveniaSlovakiaMonacoArrivalsNightsSource:TourMIS*date varies(Jan-May)by destination2023 year-to-date*,%change relative to 2019 levelsTrkiye,58.6%(A)Montenegro,127.2%(A),124.1%(N)EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q2/2023)30 Dutch Visits and Overnights to Select Destinations The recovery in Dutch ar

198、rivals and nights has softened since last quarter,with 58%and 52%of destinations reporting a rise in arrivals and nights on 2019 levels respectively,suggesting a softer end to Q1 and start of Q2 for Dutch travel demand.However,there was an improvement at a top level in the volume of nights,up to 11.

199、2%above pre-pandemic levels,compared to 7.1%the last quarter.Montenegro saw the largest improvement across all reporting destinations,in percentage terms having been the weakest performing last quarter to now reporting arrivals growth of 55.3%and 155.6%in nights following a strong outturn from Febru

200、ary to April.Like Italians,Dutch travellers seem to have responded positively to enhanced marketing efforts by the countrys National Tourism Organization as well as seeing it as an affordable European holiday destination.Like many other European markets,the recovery in Dutch travel to Monaco continu

201、es to lag elsewhere in Europe(despite around a 10ppt improvement on the previous quarter)and some Eastern European destinations close to the ongoing war in Ukraine(Latvia and Hungary).Monaco is one of the more expensive destinations to visit in the region and its slow recovery highlights the impact

202、of falling disposable income across households because of high inflation,which suggests that destinations with more budget-friendly offerings will do better this year.This could explain the stronger recovery in Iceland and Luxembourg towards the start of this year,as these destinations tend to be ch

203、eaper to visit in the winter and early spring months.Additional intra-European flights are set to be in place for the summer to support the rise in Dutch travel across the region with airlines such as EasyJet and Ryanair providing these additional flights.With sustainable travel becoming more preval

204、ent for destinations and tourists,the new European Sleeper train provides an extra form of transport for Dutch tourists looking to travel to Belgium or Germany.-35-155254565MontenegroIcelandLuxembourgSerbiaNorwayBelgiumSwedenLithuaniaFinlandCyprusSpainPolandPortugalDenmarkBulgariaAustriaCroatiaTrkiy

205、eSloveniaMaltaGermanySlovakiaSwitzerlandRomaniaEstoniaCzech Rep.MonacoHungaryLatviaArrivalsNightsSource:TourMIS*date varies(Jan-May)by destination2023 year-to-date*,%change relative to 2019 levelsMontenegro,155.6%(N)EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q2/2023)31 Russian Visits and Overnights to Select

206、 Destinations The recovery in Russian arrivals to Europe remains the weakest across all source markets in the first half of this year so far.Out of the reporting destinations,arrivals and nights are down 53.9%and 57.8%below 2019 levels according to data up to May data points among reporting destinat

207、ions vary.Russian tourists continue to have fewer holiday options as the summer period approaches,due to airspace ban between Russia and many European countries.There are still only a handful of routes flying out from Russia to Europe from both St.Petersburg and Moscow International airports7.These

208、will limit tourist arrivals to just those destinations.However,Georgia has announced that from June,Georgian Airways is set to start transit flights8 allowing Russians to access more European destinations and by-pass current airspace restrictions.This will pose an upside risk to the recovery across

209、destinations which have still significantly lag behind 2019 levels,including Italy,France,Austria and Cyprus.Destinations which Russians are able to fly to are seeing the strongest recovery so far,including Serbia,Trkiye,and Montenegro.These are all currently reporting arrivals and/or nights growth

210、ahead of 2019 levels for this year so far.Trkiye has been a popular destination since the start of the war,especially for Russians pre-emptively fleeing conscription.This may increase since a new legislation was passed earlier this year that bans men from leaving the country if they receive digital

211、military summons.7 https:/ and https:/ 8 https:/ -100-80-60-40-20020406080SerbiaTrkiyeMontenegroBulgariaPortugalCroatiaRomaniaMonacoSloveniaIcelandSwitzerlandNorwayCyprusDenmarkSlovakiaGermanyBelgiumGreecePolandAustriaHungaryCzech Rep.LithuaniaEstoniaFinlandSwedenMaltaLatviaArrivalsNightsSource:Tour

212、MIS*date varies(Jan-May)by destination2023 year-to-date*,%change relative to 2019 levelsSerbia,260.4%(A),367.0%(N)EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q2/2023)32 NON-EUROPEAN SOURCE MARKETS US Visits and Overnights to Select Destinations The US is one of the strongest source markets so far this year,wi

213、th tourists benefitting from a favourable exchange rate.But with an impending recession and household incomes continuing to be squeezed across other source markets,lower cost and more affordable destinations will continue to take a larger share of this market.Of all reporting destinations,52%showed

214、arrivals growth above 2019 levels across January-May dates vary among these destinations,which rises to 70%when looking at nights alone.This suggests that US arrivals to Europe are continuing to recover,and trips are lasting longer,and multi-country trips may also be a factor.Despite the US dollar w

215、eakening against the Euro in recent months,Europe remains a popular long-haul destination for American tourists.Several trips for this year are expected to be pre-paid to lock-in favourable exchange rates.So,any recent movements in the US$/Euro exchange rate are unlikely to significantly impact dema

216、nd.The main thing that will be impacted as a result of currency fluctuations is how much US travellers spend in Europe.Affordability is a bigger factor in long-haul travel decisions getting closer to peak time for those that have not already pre-booked and paid for travel.The oncoming recession may

217、increase consumers propensity to save and lead them to change travel plans to more short-and medium-haul destinations.More affordable destinations such as Trkiye,Montenegro and Serbia may benefit more than others,adding to the strength in their recovery in 2023 so far.Latvia,like last quarter keeps

218、the top spot in terms of percentage growth across all reporting destinations,with data up to March showing arrivals at 135.5%above 2019 levels.A possible reason for this is that the US has some of the largest diaspora of Latvians outside of Europe and a lot of travel includes visiting friends and re

219、latives.Elsewhere,Poland also stands out as another Eastern European destinations being popular for Americans.However,it is possible that the influx could be an effect of the war including journalists and official delegations,especially as Poland is one of the closest NATO members to the crisis.This

220、 seems more plausible as other Eastern European countries(such as Hungary and Romania)are also geographically close to Ukraine and Russia but remain well below the average across reporting destinations.-40-20020406080LatviaPortugalTrkiyePolandSerbiaMontenegroSwedenLithuaniaMonacoCyprusSpainDenmarkMa

221、ltaSwitzerlandFinlandNorwayEstoniaBulgariaIcelandSlovakiaCroatiaAustriaSloveniaGreeceLuxembourgRomaniaGermanyCzech Rep.BelgiumHungaryArrivalsNightsSource:TourMIS*date varies(Jan-May)by destination2023 year-to-date*,%change relative to 2019 levelsLatvia,135.5%(A)EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q2/2

222、023)33 Chinese Visits and Overnights to Select Destinations Despite international travel being a possibility for Chinese tourists from January this year,the average recovery across reporting countries has worsened since last quarter for both arrivals and nights.The average for Chinese arrivals has f

223、allen from-63.4%to-65.6%this quarter and nights from-54%to-56.9%over the same period.There could have been some trade off with immediate travel once borders were reopened to more short-to medium-haul destinations,especially around the Lunar New Year within the first quarter of the year,and likely fo

224、cussed on VFR travel rather than an immediate return to other forms of leisure or business travel.Recent research by the ETC in June reported that“73%of surveyed Chinese expressed eagerness to travel to Europe in the following months9”,confirming there is still an appetite for Chinese travel to the

225、region,despite few signs of an immediate return.There is still hesitancy for those who do not plan to travel with reasons including possibly changing restrictions.However,as conditions become more stable this is likely to become less of a reason as time goes on.Visa and passport issuance backlogs ha

226、ve also reportedly eased over this period.Montenegro and Serbia continue to be the only two destinations reporting an improvement in growth for nights so far this year.Since last quarter the recovery in Chinese arrivals to Montenegro have moved into negative territory,25.6%below 2019 levels.Elsewher

227、e there has been very little change in the rankings for the strongest and weakest performing destinations in Europe.Another reason in the research above regarding those who do not plan to travel is related to documentation and this may be a factor in the stronger recovery in Serbia.Since 2017 Serbia

228、 has offered visa-free entry to Chinese passport holders.Tourism Economics expects that Chinese arrivals into Europe will significantly improve this year,but only reaching 40%of 2019 levels by the end of 2023.This outlook is however slightly more optimistic than in the previous quarter.9 https:/etc-

229、corporate.org/uploads/2023/05/ETC_Long-Haul-Travel-Barometer-2_2023.pdf -100-80-60-40-200204060SerbiaMontenegroMaltaRomaniaSpainLatviaPolandEstoniaHungaryIcelandMonacoPortugalTrkiyeSloveniaBelgiumLithuaniaDenmarkGermanySwedenCroatiaNorwaySlovakiaSwitzerlandFinlandAustriaCzech Rep.ArrivalsNightsSourc

230、e:TourMIS*date varies(Jan-May)by destination2023 year-to-date*,%change relative to 2019 EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q2/2023)34 Japanese Visits and Overnights to Select Destinations The outlook for Japanese demand to travel to Europe has remained relatively subdued.The average across reporting

231、countries for arrivals and nights has weakened marginally since last quarter,with arrivals averaging 65%below 2019 levels(down 1.1%)and nights averaging 55.6%below 2019 levels(down 0.8%).Serbia also remains the sole destination with at least one metric exceeding 2019 levels,however,even this has sof

232、tened since last quarter due to a weaker outturn in March and April.Nevertheless,Air Serbia has been proactive in adding routes and improving partnerships with other airlines,a factor which may have made Serbia stand out as a destination for Japanese tourists.The slower overall recovery in Japanese

233、demand has been confirmed by recent research by the ETC which reported that the“Japanese market continues to show the lowest willingness to travel overseas”out of the top long-haul source markets to Europe(China,Brazil,Australia,Canada,US and Japan).For a quarter of those surveyed,the unwillingness

234、is directly stemming from Russias war in Ukraine,despite many destinations in Europe being a fair distance away from the conflict.However,all of this may not be the war itself,but the effects of the war such as longer flight times to avoid the no-fly zone over Russia and Ukraine.Routes from Finland

235、to Asia are disproportionately affected with flights to Asia increasing by between one and a half to nearly four hours.These diversions increase fuel usage and costs for airlines which is likely to have been reflected in the consumer prices.-100-80-60-40-2002040SerbiaIcelandRomaniaTrkiyeMontenegroPo

236、landSlovakiaSwitzerlandGermanySloveniaBelgiumDenmarkSpainSwedenMonacoHungaryFinlandCzech Rep.PortugalNorwayAustriaEstoniaCroatiaLatviaLithuaniaArrivalsNightsSource:TourMIS*date varies(Jan-May)by destination2023 year-to-date*,%change relative to 2019Serbia,86.3%(N)EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q2

237、/2023)35 Indian Visits and Overnights to Select Destinations For Indian tourism,37%of all reporting destinations showed growth in arrivals relative to 2019 so far this year.Out of these destinations,on average arrivals were 4.5%above pre-pandemic levels(up from-1.7%last quarter).Nights have performe

238、d less well than arrivals so far this year,with just 25%of all reporting destinations showing a rise relative to 2019,with average growth of 3.1%(up from-2.7%last quarter).Serbia remains the fastest recovering destination in terms of growth in nights.Travel was previously facilitated by a loophole i

239、n the travel requirements of other countries which allowed vaccinated travellers with a negative Covid-19 test to stay in Serbia visa-free,and this has continued to have generate momentum through this year.Southern&Mediterranean destinations,Montenegro,Spain and Portugal make up the other top perfor

240、ming destinations so far this year for increases in Indian tourists.Arrivals to Spain and Montenegro are strong at 110.3%and 171.2%above 2019 levels respectively.Portugal is slightly weaker at 32.7%but this is stronger than Serbia.The weakest performing destinations continue to be concentrated in th

241、e Nordics and Eastern Europe,in particular Sweden,Latvia and Norway.Some of this could be due to hesitancy of travelling too close to the conflict in Ukraine but also because of the no-fly zone over Russia and Ukraine.This has had an impact on routes which have crossed these countries such as New De

242、lhi to Oslo.-80-60-40-20020406080SerbiaMontenegroSpainPortugalPolandFinlandTrkiyeIcelandMonacoSwitzerlandGermanyCroatiaRomaniaAustriaHungaryCzech Rep.SlovakiaDenmarkBelgiumNorwayLatviaSwedenArrivalsNightsSource:TourMIS*date varies(Jan-May)by destination2023 year-to-date*,%change relative to 2019Serb

243、ia,265.0%(N)Montenegro,171.2%(A),176.9(N)Spain,110.3%(A)Latvia,-93.1%(N)EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q2/2023)36 Canadian Visits and Overnights to Select Destinations So far this year,only 23%of reporting destinations have registered an increase in arrivals from Canada and 30%for nights.This rep

244、resents a softer outlook compared to last quarter,even in terms of the average across all reporting markets,with Canadian arrivals now averaging-14.6%(from-8.6%last quarter)below 2019 levels and nights-1.5%(from 19.4%last quarter)below.The top five destinations in terms of growth for Canadian touris

245、ts remain the same as last quarter:Serbia,Poland,Portugal,Trkiye and Spain.Trkiye has been benefiting from a strong Canadian dollar relative to the Turkish lira,increasing its affordability as a long-haul destination in Europe.There is a similar trend emerging in Serbia and Poland,the recovery in ar

246、rivals is better than average but not significant,however nights spent in both countries is markedly higher than 2019 levels.It is possible that,like the US,Poland is a popular base for journalists and delegates(along with their families)reporting on the crisis the longevity of the war could explain

247、 the rapid recovery in nights spent.Canada has stationed engineers in Poland for training support to Ukrainian troops which only strengthens this possibility.Latvia and Lithuania continue to lag most other destinations,especially in terms of arrivals,down 80.8%and 59.5%respectively over 2019 levels

248、so far this year.Proximity to Russia and Belarus is likely generating some hesitancy from Canadian tourists when choosing destinations to visit.-60-40-20020406080SerbiaPolandPortugalTrkiyeSpainFinlandSwitzerlandMontenegroMonacoAustriaNorwaySlovakiaSwedenCyprusIcelandRomaniaSloveniaHungaryGermanyCroa

249、tiaDenmarkBelgiumCzech Rep.LatviaLithuaniaArrivalsNightsSource:TourMIS*date varies(Jan-May)by destination2023 year-to-date*,%change relative to 2019Serbia,154.9%(N)Latvia,-80.8%(A)EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q2/2023)37 Australian Visits and Overnights to Select Destinations Eight reporting des

250、tinations(up from six last quarter)have registered increases in either Australian arrivals or nights so far in 2023 compared to 2019.Despite a softening in demand in recent months,Monaco continues to lead the way with nights up 108.7%and arrivals up 37.1%relative to 2019.This seems increasingly driv

251、en by the upmarket/luxury travel segment as Monaco is one of the most expensive destinations in the region and household consumption remains strained in Australia due to high interest rates and inflation.Eastern European destinations closer to the war in Ukraine such as Lithuania,Slovakia,Slovenia a

252、nd Latvia continue to underperform and lag behind many other destinations in the region.There is likely to be some continued hesitancy among travellers until conditions improve.The cost for Australians to travel to Europe will remain elevated.Airfares are high,reflecting fuel costs,and tourism-relat

253、ed services such as hotels are trying to recover some pandemic-induced losses.Destinations that provide value for money are favoured for more mass tourism,such as Trkiye,Montenegro and Serbia which have all had a positive start to the year with above average recoveries.Brazilian Visits and Overnight

254、s to Select Destinations Out of all reporting destinations,44%have recorded growth in at least one travel metric from Brazil for this year so far,down from 50%last quarter.Nights are performing better than arrivals with 43%of destinations reporting growth above 2019 levels,compared to just 30%for ar

255、rivals.-50-40-30-20-100102030405060MonacoMontenegroSpainTrkiyeSerbiaCyprusSwitzerlandPortugalAustriaDenmarkHungaryCzech Rep.FinlandNorwayLatviaGermanyPolandSloveniaCroatiaIcelandMaltaBelgiumSwedenRomaniaSlovakiaLithuaniaArrivalsNightsSource:TourMIS*date varies(Jan-May)by destination2023 year-to-date

256、*,%change relative to 2019Monaco,108.7%(N)Lithuania,-58.5%(A),-69.9%(N)-50-30-1010305070MontenegroSerbiaLatviaMonacoSwitzerlandNorwayFinlandIcelandDenmarkSwedenPortugalSloveniaSpainCroatiaRomaniaAustriaBelgiumTrkiyeLithuaniaGermanyPolandHungaryCzech Rep.SlovakiaArrivalsNightsSource:TourMIS*date vari

257、es(Jan-May)by destination2023 year-to-date*,%change relative to 2019Serbia,71.3%(N)Montenegro,134.3%(A),144.6%(N)EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q2/2023)38 But the recovery across destinations is largely skewed toward just a few,including Montenegro,Serbia and Latvia.Out of these,the recovery in b

258、oth arrivals and nights spent in Montenegro have improved markedly on last quarter where they were both below 2019 levels.Now they have reported growth in excess of 130%for both metrics.This is possibly down to a combination of the marketing effort of the National Tourism Organisation as well as bei

259、ng one of the cheaper destinations in Europe.Despite inflationary conditions starting to ease in Brazil,affordability remains a big concern for Brazilian tourists.Research by the ETC has found that among those not intending to travel between May and August 2023,“53%mentioned their financial situatio

260、n as a primary obstacle”.Tough financial conditions at home as well as rising inflation among tourism-related services across Europe has and are likely to continue to weigh on the recovery,especially for more expensive destinations.The weakest performing destinations continue to be concentrated in E

261、astern Europe,including Hungary,Slovakia,Czechia and Poland.All four destinations are close to or border Ukraine which could be a contributing factor to their underperformance relative to the rest of the region.EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q2/2023)39 6.ORIGIN MARKET SHARE ANALYSIS Based on Tour

262、ism Economics Global Travel Service(GTS)model,the following charts and analysis show Europes evolving market position in absolute and percentage terms for selected source markets.Data in these charts and tables relate to reported arrivals in all destinations as a comparable measure of outbound trave

263、l for the calculation of market share.For example,US outbound figures featured in the analysis are larger than reported departures in national statistics as long-haul trips often involve travel to multiple destinations.In 2014,US data reporting shows 11.9 million departures to Europe while the sum o

264、f European arrivals from the US was 23.4 million.Thus,each US trip to Europe involved a visit to two destinations on average.The geographies of Europe are defined as follows:Northern Europe is Denmark,Finland,Iceland,Ireland,Norway,Sweden,and the UK;Western Europe is Austria,Belgium,France,Germany,L

265、uxembourg,Netherlands,and Switzerland;Southern/Mediterranean Europe is Albania,Bosnia-Herzegovina,Croatia,Cyprus,North Macedonia,Greece,Italy,Malta,Montenegro,Portugal,Serbia,Slovenia,Spain,and Trkiye;Central/Eastern Europe is Armenia,Azerbaijan,Belarus,Bulgaria,Czech Republic,Estonia,Georgia,Hungar

266、y,Kazakhstan,Kyrgyzstan,Latvia,Lithuania,Moldova,Poland,Romania,Russian Federation,Slovakia,and Ukraine.EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q2/2023)40 United States Market Share Summary United States Long Haul*Outbound Travel Europes Share of American Market Total outbound travel103,656-8.8%52.5%-8.4%

267、-Long haul53,82351.9%12.4%79.7%61.2%-20.6%59.9%Short haul49,83348.1%4.3%23.2%38.8%9.9%40.1%Travel to Europe28,28927.3%9.8%59.5%28.5%-11.2%28.2%European Union6,1115.9%42.8%493.7%22.9%-73.6%20.5%Northern Europe8,1557.9%7.0%40.3%7.2%-4.3%7.5%Western Europe8,7748.5%9.8%59.4%8.8%-19.1%9.6%Southern Europe

268、8,6358.3%10.7%65.9%9.1%-1.8%7.8%Central/Eastern Europe2,7252.6%14.5%96.8%3.4%-26.1%3.3%*Shows cumulative change over the relevant time period indicated.2017-22 includes COVID-19 pandemic related declines.*Shares are expressed as%of total outbound travelSource:Tourism Economics2022Growth(2022-27)Grow

269、th(2017-22)000sShare*Annual averageCumulative growth*Share 2027*Cumulative growth*Share 2017*010.00020.00030.00040.00050.00060.00070.00080.00090.00020132014201520162017201820192020202120222023Rest of Long HaulCentral/Eastern EuropeSouthern EuropeWestern Europe*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals t

270、o destinations outside North AmericaSource:Tourism EconomicsVisits,000s201220142016201820202022202420260%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%Northern EuropeWestern EuropeSouthern EuropeCentral/Eastern Europe*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside North AmericaSource:Tourism Economics%share

271、 of long haul*market EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q2/2023)41 Canada Market Share Summary Canada Long Haul*Outbound Travel Europes Share of Canadian Market Total outbound travel24,444-14.3%94.7%-33.1%-Long haul8,47534.7%17.4%123.0%39.7%-39.8%38.5%Short haul15,96965.3%12.4%79.6%60.3%-28.9%61.5%Tr

272、avel to Europe4,29217.6%11.3%70.6%15.4%-26.0%15.9%European Union1,4205.8%35.3%352.8%13.5%-69.9%12.9%Northern Europe1,1964.9%6.5%37.1%3.4%-13.3%3.8%Western Europe1,4185.8%10.2%62.2%4.8%-20.4%4.9%Southern Europe1,4876.1%15.8%108.3%6.5%-36.6%6.4%Central/Eastern Europe1910.8%8.3%49.0%0.6%-34.1%0.8%*Show

273、s cumulative change over the relevant time period indicated.2017-22 includes COVID-19 pandemic related declines.*Shares are expressed as%of total outbound travelSource:Tourism Economics000sShare*Annual averageCumulative growth*Share 2027*Cumulative growth*Share 2017*Growth(2017-22)2022Growth(2022-27

274、)02.0004.0006.0008.00010.00012.00014.00016.00018.00020132014201520162017201820192020202120222023Rest of Long HaulCentral/Eastern EuropeSouthern EuropeWestern EuropeNorthern Europe*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside North AmericaSource:Tourism EconomicsVisits,000s2012201420

275、16201820202022202420260%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%20%Northern EuropeWestern EuropeSouthern EuropeCentral/Eastern Europe*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside North AmericaSource:Tourism Economics%share of long haul*market EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q2/2023)42 Mexico Marke

276、t Share Summary Mexico Long Haul*Outbound Travel Europes Share of Mexican Market Total outbound travel14,838-12.0%76.4%-30.8%-Long haul1,97813.3%13.0%84.1%13.9%-40.0%15.4%Short haul12,86086.7%11.9%75.2%86.1%-29.1%84.6%Travel to Europe1,1888.0%10.8%66.9%7.6%-33.2%8.3%European Union4653.1%26.7%226.2%5

277、.8%-64.1%6.0%Northern Europe1661.1%3.0%15.9%0.7%-17.3%0.9%Western Europe4603.1%10.2%62.3%2.9%-39.0%3.5%Southern Europe4863.3%12.7%81.4%3.4%-22.9%2.9%Central/Eastern Europe760.5%16.3%112.8%0.6%-60.5%0.9%*Shows cumulative change over the relevant time period indicated.2017-22 includes COVID-19 pandemi

278、c related declines.*Shares are expressed as%of total outbound travelSource:Tourism Economics000sShare*Annual averageCumulative growth*Share 2027*Cumulative growth*Share 2017*2022Growth(2022-27)Growth(2017-22)05001.0001.5002.0002.5003.0003.5004.00020132014201520162017201820192020202120222023Rest of L

279、ong HaulCentral/Eastern EuropeSouthern EuropeWestern EuropeNorthern Europe*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside North AmericaSource:Tourism EconomicsVisits,000s201220142016201820202022202420260%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%Northern EuropeWestern EuropeSouthern EuropeCentral/Eastern E

280、urope*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside North AmericaSource:Tourism Economics%share of long haul*market EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q2/2023)43 Argentina Market Share Summary Argentina Long Haul*Outbound Travel Europes Share of Argentine Market Total outbound travel5

281、,832-8.7%52.0%-58.3%-Long haul2,05335.2%9.0%53.8%35.6%-45.7%27.0%Short haul3,77964.8%8.6%51.1%64.4%-63.0%73.0%Travel to Europe95316.3%8.3%48.6%16.0%-41.7%11.7%European Union3195.5%25.9%216.7%11.4%-65.9%6.7%Northern Europe831.4%10.6%65.4%1.5%-51.5%1.2%Western Europe320.5%17.0%118.8%0.8%-55.9%0.5%Sout

282、hern Europe81213.9%6.4%36.1%12.5%-34.4%8.9%Central/Eastern Europe260.4%31.9%299.4%1.2%-82.8%1.1%*Shows cumulative change over the relevant time period indicated.2017-22 includes COVID-19 pandemic related declines.*Shares are expressed as%of total outbound travelSource:Tourism EconomicsShare 2017*202

283、2Growth(2022-27)Growth(2017-22)000sShare*Annual averageCumulative growth*Share 2027*Cumulative growth*05001.0001.5002.0002.5003.0003.5004.0004.50020132014201520162017201820192020202120222023Rest of Long HaulCentral/Eastern EuropeSouthern EuropeWestern EuropeNorthern Europe*Long haul defined as touri

284、st arrivals to destinations outside South AmericaSource:Tourism EconomicsVisits,000s201220142016201820202022202420260%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%Northern EuropeWestern EuropeSouthern EuropeCentral/Eastern Europe*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside South AmericaSource:Tourism

285、 Economics%share of long haul*market EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q2/2023)44 Brazil Market Share Summary Brazil Long Haul*Outbound Travel Europes Share of Brazilian Market Total outbound travel6,545-14.4%95.7%-39.1%-Long haul4,77372.9%13.7%89.9%70.8%-38.0%71.6%Short haul1,77127.1%16.1%111.1%29.

286、2%-41.9%28.4%Travel to Europe2,72541.6%13.2%85.6%39.5%-37.0%40.2%European Union95314.6%32.5%307.9%30.3%-73.4%33.4%Northern Europe2754.2%5.9%33.0%2.9%-22.7%3.3%Western Europe79112.1%14.0%92.6%11.9%-47.0%13.9%Southern Europe1,47122.5%13.6%88.8%21.7%-29.9%19.5%Central/Eastern Europe1882.9%15.7%107.8%3.

287、1%-49.8%3.5%*Shows cumulative change over the relevant time period indicated.2017-22 includes COVID-19 pandemic related declines.*Shares are expressed as%of total outbound travelSource:Tourism Economics000sShare*Annual averageCumulative growth*Share 2027*Cumulative growth*Share 2017*Growth(2017-22)2

288、022Growth(2022-27)01.0002.0003.0004.0005.0006.0007.0008.0009.00010.00020132014201520162017201820192020202120222023Rest of Long HaulCentral/Eastern EuropeSouthern EuropeWestern EuropeNorthern Europe*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside South AmericaSource:Tourism EconomicsVis

289、its,000s201220142016201820202022202420260%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%Northern EuropeWestern EuropeSouthern EuropeCentral/Eastern Europe*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside South AmericaSource:Tourism Economics%share of long haul*market EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q2/2023)45

290、India Market Share Summary India Long Haul*Outbound Travel Europes Share of Indian Market Total outbound travel13,003-17.1%120.1%-30.1%-Long haul12,22194.0%17.1%120.0%93.9%-29.5%93.2%Short haul7826.0%17.3%121.9%6.1%-38.4%6.8%Travel to Europe2,35818.1%15.1%101.6%16.6%-26.3%17.2%European Union7255.6%2

291、2.4%175.2%7.0%-45.1%7.1%Northern Europe5564.3%11.6%73.4%3.4%-24.6%4.0%Western Europe6224.8%14.1%93.2%4.2%-31.3%4.9%Southern Europe3452.7%10.7%66.5%2.0%16.5%1.6%Central/Eastern Europe8366.4%19.3%141.2%7.0%-33.7%6.8%*Shows cumulative change over the relevant time period indicated.2017-22 includes COVI

292、D-19 pandemic related declines.*Shares are expressed as%of total outbound travelSource:Tourism EconomicsShare 2017*2022Growth(2022-27)Growth(2017-22)000sShare*Annual averageCumulative growth*Share 2027*Cumulative growth*05.00010.00015.00020.00025.00020132014201520162017201820192020202120222023Rest o

293、f Long HaulCentral/Eastern EuropeSouthern EuropeWestern EuropeNorthern Europe*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside South AsiaSource:Tourism EconomicsVisits,000s201220142016201820202022202420260%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%10%Northern EuropeWestern EuropeSouthern EuropeCentral/Eastern

294、Europe*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside South AsiaSource:Tourism Economics%share of long haul*market EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q2/2023)46 China Market Share Summary China Long Haul*Outbound Travel Europes Share of Chinese Market Total outbound travel9,750-69.5%12

295、98.9%-89.5%-Long haul6,24264.0%63.3%1060.2%53.1%-87.1%51.9%Short haul3,50836.0%78.7%1723.7%46.9%-92.1%48.1%Travel to Europe2,18222.4%50.4%669.8%12.3%-84.1%14.7%European Union2,34224.0%30.2%274.2%6.4%-64.8%7.2%Northern Europe1581.6%69.9%1315.4%1.6%-90.5%1.8%Western Europe7467.7%53.8%759.5%4.7%-86.9%6

296、.1%Southern Europe2472.5%39.2%422.1%0.9%-72.6%1.0%Central/Eastern Europe1,03010.6%46.1%565.2%5.0%-81.1%5.8%*Shows cumulative change over the relevant time period indicated.2017-22 includes COVID-19 pandemic related declines.*Shares are expressed as%of total outbound travelSource:Tourism Economics000

297、sShare*Annual averageCumulative growth*Share 2027*Cumulative growth*Share 2017*Growth(2017-22)2022Growth(2022-27)010.00020.00030.00040.00050.00060.00020132014201520162017201820192020202120222023Rest of Long HaulCentral/Eastern EuropeSouthern EuropeWestern EuropeNorthern Europe*Long haul defined as t

298、ourist arrivals to destinations outside Northeast AsiaSource:Tourism EconomicsVisits,000s201220142016201820202022202420260%5%10%15%20%25%30%Northern EuropeWestern EuropeSouthern EuropeCentral/Eastern Europe*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside Northeast AsiaSource:Tourism Ec

299、onomics%share of long haul*market EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q2/2023)47 Japan Market Share Summary Japan Long Haul*Outbound Travel Europes Share of Japanese Market Total outbound travel3,587-55.6%811.3%-84.3%-Long haul2,91781.3%48.4%618.6%64.1%-80.5%65.4%Short haul66918.7%77.3%1651.2%35.9%-91

300、.5%34.6%Travel to Europe1,09330.5%41.1%458.7%18.7%-75.6%19.6%European Union75821.1%42.7%491.3%13.7%-82.2%18.7%Northern Europe1985.5%34.8%345.4%2.7%-76.2%3.6%Western Europe3509.8%46.9%583.2%7.3%-79.6%7.5%Southern Europe36810.3%36.9%380.6%5.4%-70.5%5.5%Central/Eastern Europe1774.9%43.2%501.3%3.3%-73.9

301、%3.0%*Shows cumulative change over the relevant time period indicated.2017-22 includes COVID-19 pandemic related declines.*Shares are expressed as%of total outbound travelSource:Tourism EconomicsShare 2017*2022Growth(2022-27)Growth(2017-22)000sShare*Annual averageCumulative growth*Share 2027*Cumulat

302、ive growth*02.0004.0006.0008.00010.00012.00014.00016.00018.00020132014201520162017201820192020202120222023Rest of Long HaulCentral/Eastern EuropeSouthern EuropeWestern EuropeNorthern Europe*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside Northeast AsiaSource:Tourism EconomicsVisits,000

303、s201220142016201820202022202420260%5%10%15%20%25%Northern EuropeWestern EuropeSouthern EuropeCentral/Eastern Europe*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside Northeast AsiaSource:Tourism Economics%share of long haul*market EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q2/2023)48 Australia Ma

304、rket Share Summary Australia Long Haul*Outbound Travel Europes Share of Australian Market Total outbound travel7,327-27.3%234.8%-56.7%-Long haul6,98995.4%27.5%236.4%95.8%-57.1%96.2%Short haul3384.6%24.8%202.6%4.2%-47.5%3.8%Travel to Europe2,68936.7%21.9%169.0%29.5%-49.8%31.6%European Union7149.8%51.

305、1%687.1%22.9%-84.3%26.9%Northern Europe95013.0%13.5%88.7%7.3%-38.7%9.1%Western Europe73610.0%19.7%146.2%7.4%-48.3%8.4%Southern Europe86411.8%28.7%253.1%12.4%-54.2%11.1%Central/Eastern Europe1411.9%32.9%314.4%2.4%-71.8%2.9%*Shows cumulative change over the relevant time period indicated.2017-22 inclu

306、des COVID-19 pandemic related declines.*Shares are expressed as%of total outbound travelSource:Tourism Economics000sShare*Annual averageCumulative growth*Share 2027*Cumulative growth*Share 2017*2022Growth(2022-27)Growth(2017-22)02.0004.0006.0008.00010.00012.00014.00016.00018.00020.000201320142015201

307、62017201820192020202120222023Rest of Long HaulCentral/Eastern EuropeSouthern EuropeWestern EuropeNorthern Europe*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside OceaniaSource:Tourism EconomicsVisits,000s201220142016201820202022202420260%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%Northern EuropeWestern Europe

308、Southern EuropeCentral/Eastern Europe*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside OceaniaSource:Tourism Economics%share of long haul*market EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q2/2023)49 Russia Market Share Summary Russia Long Haul*Outbound Travel Europes Share of Russian Market Tota

309、l outbound travel13,236-20.3%152.4%-49.6%-Long haul2,96822.4%20.8%156.7%22.8%-52.2%23.6%Short haul10,26877.6%20.2%151.1%77.2%-48.9%76.4%Travel to Europe10,26877.6%20.2%151.1%77.2%-48.9%76.4%European Union2,20916.7%24.0%193.1%19.4%-72.9%31.0%Northern Europe2501.9%31.5%293.9%3.0%-77.5%4.2%Western Euro

310、pe4953.7%26.4%222.3%4.8%-68.9%6.0%Southern Europe6,36148.1%15.2%103.1%38.7%-28.5%33.9%Central/Eastern Europe3,16223.9%26.6%225.4%30.8%-62.7%32.3%*Shows cumulative change over the relevant time period indicated.2017-22 includes COVID-19 pandemic related declines.*Shares are expressed as%of total outb

311、ound travelSource:Tourism Economics000sShare*Annual averageCumulative growth*Share 2027*Cumulative growth*Share 2017*2022Growth(2022-27)Growth(2017-22)05.00010.00015.00020.00025.00030.00035.00040.00045.00020132014201520162017201820192020202120222023Rest of WorldCentral/Eastern EuropeSouthern EuropeW

312、estern EuropeNorthern Europe*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to all destinations Source:Tourism EconomicsVisits,000s201220142016201820202022202420260%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%Northern EuropeWestern EuropeSouthern EuropeCentral/Eastern Europe*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to all destination

313、s Source:Tourism Economics%share of long haul*market EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q2/2023)50 United Arab Emirates Market Share Summary United Arab Emirates Long Haul*Outbound Travel Europes Share of Emirati Market Total outbound travel4,110-10.3%63.0%-13.5%-Long haul1,82844.5%7.6%44.6%39.4%-24.

314、6%66.9%Short haul2,28255.5%12.2%77.7%60.6%90.6%33.1%Travel to Europe1,38033.6%5.6%31.5%27.1%-18.0%46.5%European Union2856.9%28.2%246.2%14.7%-65.4%22.8%Northern Europe3899.5%9.9%60.2%9.3%-11.2%12.1%Western Europe3989.7%2.7%14.1%6.8%-7.9%11.9%Southern Europe2385.8%-4.4%-20.0%2.8%20.3%5.5%Central/Easte

315、rn Europe3558.6%9.1%54.2%8.2%-42.2%17.0%*Shows cumulative change over the relevant time period indicated.2017-22 includes COVID-19 pandemic related declines.*Shares are expressed as%of total outbound travelSource:Tourism Economics000sShare*Annual averageCumulative growth*Share 2027*Cumulative growth

316、*Share 2017*Growth(2017-22)2022Growth(2022-27)05001.0001.5002.0002.5003.00020132014201520162017201820192020202120222023Rest of Long HaulCentral/Eastern EuropeSouthern EuropeWestern EuropeNorthern Europe*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside Middle EastSource:Tourism Economics

317、Visits,000s201220142016201820202022202420260%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%Northern EuropeWestern EuropeSouthern EuropeCentral/Eastern Europe*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside Middle East Source:Tourism Economics%share of long haul*market EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q2/202

318、3)51 7.ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Assessing recent tourism data and industry performance is a useful way of directly monitoring the key trends for travel demand across Europe.This can be complemented by looking at key trends and relationships in macroeconomic performance in Europes key source markets,which ca

319、n provide further insight into likely tourism developments throughout the year.The linkages between macroeconomics and tourism performance can be very informative.For example,strong GDP or consumer spending growth is an indication of rising prosperity with people more likely to travel abroad.It is a

320、lso an indication of rising business activity and therefore stronger business travel.Movements in exchange rates against the euro can be equally important as it can influence choice of destination.For example,if the euro appreciated(gained value)against the US dollar,the Eurozone would become a more

321、 expensive destination and therefore potentially less attractive for US visitors.Conversely,depreciation(lost value)of the euro against the US dollar would make the Eurozone a relatively cheaper destination and therefore more attractive to US travellers.Disclaimer:the opinions expressed in the forth

322、coming section Economic Outlook are those of Oxford Economics(“we,us,our”).They do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of ETC or its members.OVERVIEW Recent activity data suggest that world GDP growth in Q2 is likely to have eased only modestly after a strong Q1.Most notably,the ongoing str

323、ength of the US labour market and consumer spending have prompted us to raise our expectation for Q2s growth rate and scale back the size of the anticipated US recession in H2.As a result,weve raised our forecast for US GDP growth in 2023 to 1.3%.Due to the continued resilience of global growth,as w

324、ell as lingering concerns within central banks about the pace at which underlying inflation pressures will ease,we have also shifted some of our policy rate forecasts.We have removed two rate cuts by the Fed in 2024 and now expect a total of six cuts next year.Meanwhile,recent UK CPI inflation has b

325、een higher than expected,leading us to expect two further rate hikes by the Bank of England this year and for rates to remain at their 5%peak throughout 2024.We now see rates in the UK at the end of 2024 being 1.5ppts higher than our forecast from a month ago.But on the whole,in the absence of a maj

326、or downturn,we expect policy rates cuts by the major advanced economy central banks generally to be off the table until next year.We still expect inflation in the eurozone will drop more sharply than in the US and UK,and see headline CPI inflation in the currency bloc remaining persistently below 2%

327、in 2024.As a result,we expect the ECB will cut rates by a total of 175bps next year a slightly smaller reduction than envisaged a month ago but a more aggressive cutting cycle than the Fed is expected to deliver.With policy rates likely to remain higher for longer,we have reduced the pace of world G

328、DP growth in 2024 slightly and see calendar year growth slowing for a third consecutive year.Growth is expected to pick up in 2025 to around 3%,as the impact of policy rate cuts seeps through to the real economy.But this would only return growth back to around the average rate of the 2010s.Overall,w

329、e have upgraded our world GDP growth forecast for 2023 to 2.2%to reflect ongoing economic resilience.Given stronger growth and lingering concerns about sustained high inflation,we EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q2/2023)52 expect policy rates to remain higher for longer.This is likely to temper gr

330、owth in 2024 and beyond,leading us to nudge down our forecast for world GDP growth during 2024.Summary of economic outlook,%change*UK4.1%5.3%4.1%0.9%9.1%0.4%-0.1%4.2%-2.0%7.1%France2.5%2.2%7.1%0.0%5.2%0.5%0.1%7.0%0.0%5.2%Germany1.9%4.9%5.3%0.0%6.9%-0.4%-0.9%5.5%0.0%5.2%Netherlands4.5%6.5%3.5%0.0%10.

331、0%0.7%1.9%3.7%0.0%4.2%Italy3.8%4.6%8.1%0.0%8.2%1.2%0.9%7.9%0.0%5.9%Spain5.5%4.4%12.9%0.0%8.4%2.3%0.8%12.7%0.0%3.4%Russia-2.1%-1.4%3.9%20.1%13.7%0.7%2.2%3.5%-13.5%4.8%US2.1%2.7%3.6%12.3%8.0%1.3%1.9%3.9%-2.6%4.4%Canada3.4%4.8%5.3%8.3%6.8%0.6%1.6%5.4%-7.0%3.7%Brazil3.0%4.3%9.3%17.5%9.3%1.8%1.1%8.6%-0.4

332、%5.0%China3.0%0.1%3.6%7.8%2.0%5.5%9.3%3.5%-5.6%1.4%Japan1.0%2.0%2.6%-5.9%2.5%0.7%1.6%2.6%-5.6%2.8%India6.7%8.1%7.6%5.7%6.7%5.6%1.8%7.9%-7.5%5.4%Source:Tourism Economics based on GEM as of 07.06.2023*Unless otherwise specified*Percentage point change*Exchange rates measured against the euro.A positiv

333、e change indicates stronger local currency against the euro and therefore a positive impact on outbound tourism demand.A negative change indicates weaker local currency against the euro and therefore a negative impact on outbound tourism demand.CountryGDPConsum-ptionUnemploy-ment*Exchange rate*Unemploy-ment*Exchange rate*Inflation20222023InflationGDPConsum-ption EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS&PROSPECTS(Q