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1、REPORTCBRE RESEARCHSEPTEMBER 20232023 U.S.Real Estate Market Outlook Midyear ReviewIntelligent Investment2CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Intelligent Investment2023 Real Estate Market Outlook Midyear Review|U.S.ForewordJulie WhelanGlobal Head of Occupier Thought LeadershipHenry Chin,Ph.D.Global Head of

2、Investor Thought LeadershipWelcome to CBREs 2023 U.S.Real Estate Market Outlook Midyear Review,which evaluates how well we did with the forecasts we made at the beginning of the year.Given the resilient economy and persistent inflation,CBRE has pushed back the timing for a potential recession to lat

3、e 2023 into Q1 2024,one quarter later than our original forecast.We therefore have extended our forecast for a recovery in commercial real estate investment volume and stabilization in cap rates by roughly one to two quarters,pushing expected improvements into 2024.Investment volume is forecast to f

4、all by 37%year-over-year in 2023 and rise by 15%in 2024,while cap rate expansion will continue for the rest of 2023,albeit at a slower rate.The later-than-expected start to the recession has also pushed to late 2024 the likelihood of overall office vacancy peaking and average rent bottoming out.Cont

5、inued uncertainty regarding long-term hybrid working arrangements and the economic outlook are causing many tenants to delay leasing decisions.However,the number of tenants currently in the market suggests that leasing activity will eventually rebound once economic conditions stabilize,supporting th

6、e start of an office recovery.Industrial&logistics leasing has surpassed expectations,with total activity on course to reach 750 million sq.ft.by year-end.While higher-than-expected rent growth in emerging markets could push overall rent growth to just under 15%for the year,vacancy rates will increa

7、se more than initially expected as tenant requirements continue to lag new construction completions.Multifamily new construction and absorption levels have surpassed forecasts made at the beginning of the year.Our forecast for annual rent growth has been revised downward from initial expectations,pr

8、imarily due to lower CPI inflation expectations and a downgrade to our employment outlook.CBREs predictions for the retail market have proven largely accurate,although there have been some slight adjustments to rent growth forecasts as some markets have begun to experience negative absorption and ri

9、sing availability rates.Although continuing to improve,the pace of inbound international travel to the U.S.has not met our original forecast due to less-than-expected visitation from China and Japan.This has led CBRE to lower its full-year forecast for hotel RevPAR growth to 4.6%from 6%.We hope you

10、find this report insightful and informative.Please contact us if you would like to have a more in-depth conversation about CBREs forecasts or any aspect of this report.Economy014CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Intelligent Investment2023 Real Estate Market Outlook Midyear Review|U.S.Forecast made in Janu

11、ary 2023Midyear reviewCBRE expects a moderate recession in the U.S.from late 2023,extending into early 2024,with a mild increase in unemployment to around 5%.Nevertheless,higher interest rates will weigh on growth in the second half of 2023.Other headwinds include the restart of student loan payment

12、s,which will inevitably impact consumer spending as disposable income decreases and excess savings are drawn down.STEEP DOWNTURN NOT EXPECTEDAlthough we expect a recession later this year,we are not overly pessimistic.The U.S.consumer has low leverage and a relatively strong balance sheet.The digita

13、l economy and the reshoring of manufacturingparticularly semiconductor productionare two significant growth drivers.03The U.S.economy has proven more resilient than we expected at the beginning of the year.The federal funds rate is higher than we expected at a range of 5.25%to 5.5%and is likely to r

14、emain there for the rest of this year.We now believe rate decreases will start in 2024 and the federal funds rate will end the year at 4.5%to 4.75%.We also see the 10-year Treasury rate ending 2023 at 4.0%and 2024 at around 3.5%.PEAK INTEREST RATESThe Fed will continue to hike interest rates to curb

15、 high inflation.The federal funds rate is projected to peak at around 5.0%in mid-2023,ending the steepest rate-hiking cycle in history.02CBRE now expects economic growth to slow in late 2023 with a moderate recession continuing into early 2024.As a result,CBRE has adjusted its 2023 GDP growth foreca

16、st upward to 2.0%and 2024 growth forecast downward to 0.7%.RECESSION AHEADSharply higher interest rates will weigh on the U.S.economy in 2023.Home prices and retail sales will decline and unemployment will rise.The U.S.dollars continued strength against other currencies will further squeeze corporat

17、e earnings and export sales,limiting business investment.As a result,CBRE expects a recession in 2023.01Economy5CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Intelligent Investment2023 Real Estate Market Outlook Midyear Review|U.S.ForecastFigure 1:Quarterly GDP Growth With Forecast(%)Source:CBRE Research,September 20

18、23.Figure 2:CBRE House View(January vs September Forecast)Source:CBRE Research,September 2023.Q3 2023Forecastin JanuaryQ3 2023Forecastin SeptemberQ4 2023Forecastin JanuaryQ4 2023Forecastin SeptemberGDP Growth(year-over-year)-0.10%2.30%0%1.50%Inflation Rate(year-over-year)4.40%3.30%4.10%2.90%Federal

19、Funds Rate(quarter end)5.00-5.25%5.25-5.50%5.00-5.25%5.25-5.50%Unemployment Rate(quarter end)4.50%3.70%4.70%3.88%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2020Q1 2021Q2 2021Q3 2021Q4 2021Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2022Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 2023Q4 2023Q1 2024Q2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024Q1

20、 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025Q4 2025Change YoYCapital Markets027CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Intelligent Investment2023 Real Estate Market Outlook Midyear Review|U.S.Forecast made in January 2023Midyear reviewEconomic resilience and higher interest rates have caused CBRE to lower its investment volume forecast

21、.A broad-based recovery that was expected to begin in late 2023 will now not begin until early 2024.Investment volume is forecast to decline by 37%year-over-year in 2023 and increase by 15%in 2024,as greater certainty around interest rates and the economic outlook supports stronger purchasing activi

22、ty.CAPITAL MARKETS CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE IN SECOND HALF OF YEARTightening financial conditions and the deteriorating economic outlook will weigh on commercial real estate investment in H1 2023.However,should interest rates stabilize,conditions may be conducive for a healthy recovery in H2 2023.CBRE

23、forecasts 2023 investment volume to decline by 15%from 2022 levels.03Amid continued resilience of the U.S.economy and the federal funds rate at a higher range than previously expected,cap rates have increased by approximately 125 bps for most property typesalbeit with wide variation by marketand clo

24、ser to 200 bps for office assets.Cap rate stabilization is expected by early 2024 for all property types except office,which will not stabilize until midyear.CAP RATE COMPRESSION EXPECTED IN H2 2023Despite a lack of comparative sales,anecdotal evidence suggests that cap rates for prime U.S.assets ac

25、ross most property types increased by 100 to 150 basis points(bps)in 2022.If the Fed continues to raise interest rates,cap rates are forecast to increase by another 25 to 50 bps.Cap rates will peak in Q2 2023 for most sectors,with those for offices peaking in Q3.Yields will compress in the second ha

26、lf of the year.02Investors have remained cautious in 2023,with investment volume down by 60%year-over-year in Q2.Uncertainty about interest rates and the economic outlook,along with tighter credit conditions,are the primary obstacles to increased deal flow.However,we expect that more stable conditio

27、ns toward year-end will lead to a pickup in investment activity.INVESTORS CAUTIOUS AMID INTEREST RATE UNCERTAINTYMore than half of the respondents to CBREs 2023 U.S.Investor Intentions Survey said they would decrease their purchasing activity in 2023 compared with 2022.Investors cited rising interes

28、t rates,a potential recession and limited credit availability as their greatest challenges in 2023.01Capital Markets8CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Intelligent Investment2023 Real Estate Market Outlook Midyear Review|U.S.Source:MSCI Real Assets,CBRE Research,Q2 2023.Figure 3:Americas Investment VolumeR

29、evised yield forecast Given a resilient economy and persistent inflation,CBRE has extended its forecast for a recovery in investment volume and stabilization in cap rates by roughly one to two quarters,pushing expected improvements into 2024.CBRE now projects cap rate expansion to continue through t

30、he end of 2023.However,we expect increases to slow for the rest of the year,with cap rates up 125 bps across property types and well over 200 bps for office.Cap rates are forecast to stabilize in early 2024 except for office assets,which should see continued expansion until the middle of next year.A

31、n interest rate cut is not expected until early 2024 and the 10-year Treasury rate will end 2023 at 4.0%before falling closer to 3.5%in late 2024.Key changes to forecast010020030040050060070080090020072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023F2024FUS$BillionsOffice0310CBRE RES

32、EARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Intelligent Investment2023 Real Estate Market Outlook Midyear Review|U.S.Forecast made in January 2023Midyear reviewAverage asking rent was unchanged in H1 2023 at$35.45 per sq.ft.Asking rents have remained stable as the demand for prime space has allowed landlords to keep face r

33、ents firm,while increasing concessions.Improvement in net-effective rents has slowed and been limited to top-tier properties.RENT GROWTHA continued flight-to-quality trend will drive rent growth for top-tier office buildings.However,elevated vacancies in older buildings,new space deliveries and incr

34、easing sublease space will put pressure on overall rent in 2023.04Negative net absorption and new supply pushed the overall office vacancy rate up by 90 basis points(bps)since year-end 2022 to 18.2%,a 30-year high.The vacancy rate for buildings constructed since 2010 was 14.4%in Q2 2023,which was 3.

35、8 percentage points below the overall vacancy rate.While 2023 is shaping up to be a banner year for office building conversions to other uses like residential,they account for less than 2%of total U.S.office inventory.VACANCYOlder buildings with outdated amenities will struggle to attract tenants,le

36、ading to obsolete space that will inflate the overall U.S.office vacancy rate over the long-term.While office conversion activity will rise over the next few years,it will represent only a small share of total U.S.office inventory due to feasibility issues.03Buildings constructed since 2010 continue

37、d to see positive absorption.Smaller leases prevailed:The average lease size in H1 2023 was 28%less than the H1 2018/19 average.Nashville had the most net absorption of any U.S.market in H1 2023 despite new construction deliveries adding 4%to its total office inventory over the past four quarters.De

38、mand in all other Sun Belt markets cooled amid economic uncertainty.DEMAND(NET ABSORPTION)Demand for prime office space,even if for smaller requirements,will remain strong.A smaller pool of tenants will be interested in older office buildings.Fast-growing and popular Sun Belt markets,including Austi

39、n,Dallas,Miami and Nashville,will remain in favor.02Construction deliveries totaled 14.7 million sq.ft.in H1 2023.For the full year,CBRE forecasts deliveries totaling 37.5 million sq.ft.,the lowest annual amount since 2014.Total office space under construction fell by 11%from year-end 2022 to 63 mil

40、lion sq.ft.,accounting for 1.4%of total inventory.The construction pipeline continues to shrink,reducing supply-side risk to vacancy.Vacancy rates for prime space will return to normal levels more quickly than for lesser-grade space.SUPPLYHigh availabilities will keep developers and construction len

41、ders on the sidelines in 2023.Less than 38 million sq.ft.of new space is slated for delivery in 2023,down by 27%from the five-year average.A thinning construction pipeline will reduce supply-side risks over the next few years,likely resulting in a shortage of prime office space in the long term.01Of

42、fice11CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Intelligent Investment2023 Real Estate Market Outlook Midyear Review|U.S.Source:CBRE Econometric Advisors,Q2 2023.CBRE has revised its expectation of a recession to early 2024 from late 2023.This outlook has in turn pushed to late 2024 the likelihood of the overall

43、office vacancy rate peaking and average rent bottoming out.Continued uncertainty about long-term hybrid working arrangements and concerns about the economic outlook are causing many tenants to delay leasing decisions.Although vacancy rates likely will remain structurally higher in many markets,activ

44、e tenants in the market suggest that leasing activity will eventually rebound and support the start of an office recovery once economic conditions stabilize.Key changes to forecastFigure 4:U.S.Office Net Absorption,Completions&Vacancy0%3%6%9%12%15%18%21%(40)(30)(20)(10)0102030Q2 2019Q4 2019Q2 2020Q4

45、 2020Q2 2021Q4 2021Q2 2022Q4 2022Q2 2023Q4 2023Q2 2024Q4 2024Q2 2025Q4 2025Q2 2026Q4 2026Q2 2027Q4 2027Q2 2028Net Absorption(L)Completions(L)Vacancy Rate(R)MSFVacancy RateIndustrial&Logistics 0413CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Intelligent Investment2023 Real Estate Market Outlook Midyear Review|U.S.For

46、ecast made in January 2023Midyear review The industrial market remains on course for double-digit rent growth this year.Average first year base rent grew by 16.6%in H1 2023.Rent growth has shifted away from the gateway markets of Los Angeles and Northern New Jersey to markets with strong population

47、growth like South Florida,Atlanta and Las Vegas and with well-established logistic hubs such as Philadelphia and Reno.DOUBLE-DIGIT RENT GROWTH TO CONTINUEContinued low vacancy rates and solid leasing activity will result in annual rent growth of between 12%and 15%in 2023.03 Leasing activity for bloc

48、ks of 300,000 sq.ft.or more fell by 29%year-over-year in Q2 2023 as Fortune 500 companies put expansion plans on hold until there is greater economic clarity.New supply exceeded 100 million sq.ft.for a fifth consecutive quarter in Q2 2023.A large amount of new supply consists of facilities totaling

49、more than 300,000 sq.ft.Leasing activity for blocks of more than 300,000 sq.ft.has seen the greatest slowdown,leading to an increase in vacancy rates.Although the overall vacancy rate ended Q2 2023 at 3.7%and could reach 4.5%by year-end,a reduction in construction starts will push the rate down by m

50、id-2024.AVAILABILITY TO REMAIN TIGHTDespite record construction completions,continued demand from large occupiers will ensure availability remains tight,leaving the vacancy rate in the 3.3%-to-3.6%range by year-end.Economic uncertainty and difficulties in securing construction financing will cause a

51、 sharp drop in construction starts,leading to even greater undersupply of space in late 2024.02 Leasing volume in H1 2023 totaled 372.7 million sq.ft.,putting total annual volume on course for 744 million sq.ft.Robust renewal activity has underpinned leasing volume this year,with 35%of all lease tra

52、nsactions in Q2 consisting of renewals.Companies are opting for renewals due to heightened economic uncertainty and as a way to attract and retain staff in what is still a very tight labor market.Leasing has been solid for smaller industrial facilities.Leases for units of 25,000 sq.ft.to 100,000 sq.

53、ft.are slightly lagging last years pace,while those for units of less than 25,000 sq.ft.are up year-over-year.A“NEW NORMAL”FOR LEASING ACTIVITYLeasing activity is expected to decline from 2021-2022s record and unsustainable pandemic-fueled pace.CBRE forecasts annual leasing activity to be well above

54、 the pre-pandemic average of 550 million sq.ft.,finishing 2023 at 725 million sq.ft.01Industrial&Logistics14CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Intelligent Investment2023 Real Estate Market Outlook Midyear Review|U.S.Source:CBRE Research,Q2 2023.Figure 5:U.S.Industrial Leasing Activity by Occupier TypeUpgra

55、ded Leasing activity could reach 750 million sq.ft.by year-end due to a pickup in activity from large users.This could result in stronger demand for larger spaces in Q4 2023.Higher-than-expected rent growth in emerging markets could push annual rent growth to just under 15%by year-end.Downgraded Wit

56、h tenant requirements continuing to lag new construction completions,vacancy rates will increase more than initially expected.However,any oversupply will be confined to larger facilities,which will be gradually absorbed over the course of 2024 as new construction levels decline.Economic uncertainty

57、is weighing on demand from third-party logistics companies(3PLs).CBREs initial forecast was for 3PL market share to reach close to 40%in 2023 but we now project it will decline as food&beverage and auto-related users expand.Key changes to forecastH1 2023 Lease Transactions 100,000 sq.ft.&Above H1 20

58、22 Lease Transactions 100,000 sq.ft.&Above Occupier TypeSF Transacted Market ShareOccupier TypeSF Transacted Market ShareThird-Party Logistics 75,444,21231.40%Third-Party Logistics 113,624,08935.90%General Retail&Wholesale 56,121,11023.30%General Retail&Wholesale 86,628,91827.40%Food&Beverage 24,600

59、,92410.20%Food&Beverage22,645,6197.20%Automobiles,Tires&Parts 20,848,8878.70%Manufacturing 21,106,8346.70%Manufacturing 19,284,8148.00%E-Commerce Only20,297,0346.40%Building Materials&Construction17,246,7337.20%Building Materials&Construction 19,241,4526.10%E-Commerce Only9,754,0694.10%Automobiles,T

60、ires&Parts15,185,0084.80%Undisclosed9,467,5723.90%Medical 9,703,1293.10%Medical7,991,9322.60%Undisclosed8,163,5302.60%Total239,992,045100%Total316,595,613100%Multifamily 0516CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Intelligent Investment2023 Real Estate Market Outlook Midyear Review|U.S.Forecast made in January

61、2023Midyear reviewCBRE has reduced its full-year rent growth forecast to 2.2%for the following three reasons:A lowering of our CPI inflation expectations to 3.7%from 4.0%for the year,which will have a one-for-one downward effect on nominal rent growth projections.A downgrade to our employment outloo

62、k.Significant deviations from earlier expectations in quarterly data for numerous markets.RENT GROWTHCBRE expects above-average effective rent growth of 3.5%in 2023 and 2.3%in 2024.04An economic downturn that will persist well into H1 2024 and the completion of an additional 100,000 units of new sup

63、ply in 2023 will cause the vacancy rate to peak at 5.4%in Q2 2024.Supply and demand dynamics will then rebalance and vacancy will drift back down toward its long-run equilibrium rate of 5.0%by Q2 2025.VACANCYCBRE expects a rise in the vacancy rate due to a robust supply pipeline and an economic slow

64、down causing less demand.The vacancy rate is forecast to climb by 60 bps to 5.2%at year-end.03Absorption totaled 71,000 units in H1 2023,almost double our initial expectations.CBREs updated outlook is for annual absorption of 307,000 units this year,up from our earlier expectation of 228,000 units.T

65、his forecast is based on the nearly 40,000 more units absorbed than initially expected in H1 2023 and an upward revision combined with a later-than-expected economic downturn in late 2023.DEMAND(NET ABSORPTION)Absorption of 228,000 units is expected in 2023,lagging the delivery of 350,000 units.02Co

66、nstruction deliveries totaled 152,000 units in H1 2023,slightly more than initially forecast.CBRE now projects annual completions totaling 450,000 units this year.SUPPLYCBRE expects 350,000 units to be completed in 2023141,000 in H1 and 210,000 in H2,based on data from Dodge Data&Analytics.01Multifa

67、mily17CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Intelligent Investment2023 Real Estate Market Outlook Midyear Review|U.S.UpgradeDowngradeSource:CBRE Research,CBRE Econometric Advisors,August 2023.Figure 6:Multifamily Rent Growth Forecast Upgraded The urban hubs of Chicago and New York have some of the largest upw

68、ard revisions to rent growth forecasts now that the COVID pandemic has ebbed and new supply was limited over the past year.Downgraded Many Sun Belt markets such as Austin and Phoenix,which had annual rent growth of more than 20%in 2021,now have a supply-and-demand imbalance that is weighing negative

69、ly on fundamentals.For most of these markets,CBRE now anticipates modestly negative rent growth for most of 2024,with a steady rebound beginning in 2025/2026 before settling into a stable long-run average.Although San Francisco has not had a wave of new supply,the combined impact of tech industry cu

70、tbacks,workers moving out of the city and the relatively slow return to the office have caused rent growth to lag well below initial expectations.Many West Coast markets have also seen a slow return of residents as their higher cost of living is a large barrier to reentry,further straining rent affo

71、rdability.Key changes to forecast-5-3-11357ChicagoNew YorkMinneapolisNewarkMiamiSan DiegoBostonWashington,DCHoustonDallasPhiladelphiaSum of MarketsDenverOrlandoOrange CountyDetroitSeattleLos AngelesTampaAtlantaAustinSan FranciscoPhoenixChange YoY(%)2023YE(Feb Forecast)2023YE(Aug Forecast)Q2 2023 Act

72、ualRetail 0619CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Intelligent Investment2023 Real Estate Market Outlook Midyear Review|U.S.Forecast made in January 2023Midyear review Retail spending was more than expected,up by 3.2%in H1 2023 compared with the same period a year ago as the U.S.economy remained resilient.We

73、 expect a further 3.3%increase in H2.Unemployment is low,wage growth is high and households have solid debt-to-income ratios.New retail construction remains relatively low,totaling less than 12 million sq.ft.in H1 2023.The resumption of student loan payments in October 2023 could lower consumer spen

74、ding beginning in Q4.RETAIL SPACE PRODUCTIVITY WILL REMAIN STRONG IN 2023Retail sales per sq.ft.,which rose sharply over the past five years,are expected to slow in 2023 before rising again the following year.Continued supply side constraints will limit expansion by retail occupiers,who prefer to wa

75、it for prime space rather than invest in lesser trade areas,especially as development costs remain inflated.Retail real estate fundamentals should remain resilient despite economic challenges next year.03 Our initial forecast for m-commerce growth is inconclusive as Q2 sales data is not yet availabl

76、e.However,e-commerces share of total retail has returned to its steady growth rate from pre-pandemic levels.Based on U.S.Census Bureau data,CBRE estimates that e-commerces share of total retail is 20.8%.Retailers continue to design stores to align with the rise in retail app use and mobile devices.Q

77、uick-service restaurant designs are including separate counters and/or multiple drive-thrus to accommodate third-party app delivery.Other innovative retailers have dispensed with traditional check-out counters in favor of store associates equipped with point-of-sale mobile devices.MOBILE COMMERCE TO

78、 EXPANDRetail sales transacted through mobile devices,known as m-commerce,are expected to account for 47%of all e-commerce sales in 2023,rising to 58%by 2027.According to Forrester,“digitally influenced”retail sales,where consumers research products online but buy or pick up in stores,will represent

79、 62%of total retail sales in 2023 and 70%by 2027.02 Retail fundamentals remain strong despite sustained headwinds.A slowdown in retail expansions,combined with key retail closures such as Bed Bath&Beyond,Tuesday Morning,Christmas Tree Shops and others,might have turned absorption negative in years p

80、ast.However,retail availability remains extremely tight,standing at a record-low 4.8%.The lack of new construction has helped balance supply and demand,with forecasts suggesting that current high levels of occupancy will continue.LACK OF NEW SUPPLY WILL BOOST RETAIL SECTOR FUNDAMENTALSThe rebound in

81、 brick-and-mortar retail sales is expected to continue in 2023.Although high inflation,rising interest rates and labor shortages will remain headwinds,high construction costs and tight availability should ensure that retail fundamentals remain stable.01Retail20CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Intelligent

82、 Investment2023 Real Estate Market Outlook Midyear Review|U.S.UpgradeDowngradeNote:Primary retail markets,which includes those with most supply of neighborhood,community&strip centers,plus Manhattan and San Francisco.Source:CBRE Econometric Advisors,Q2 2023.Figure 7:Retail Rent ForecastOverall,more

83、markets have been downgraded than upgraded.This is because some markets have begun to experience negative absorption and rising availability rates.U.S.retail assets remain strong,however,with even the downgraded markets forecast to have strong rent growth.Upgraded The rent growth outlook for San Fra

84、ncisco has been upgraded after strong gains in Q2 2023 as the market continues its recovery.Miamis strong performance is being driven by a significant amount of new apartment and condo construction along with a tight availability rate.Houston leads U.S.markets in new retail construction year-to-date

85、 and has the most existing supply.Downgraded While Manhattan and Los Angeles have seen the largest downgrades,both remain among the top markets in terms of forecast asking rent growth,partly due to the strength of their high-street districts.Phoenix recorded the second-highest net absorption of any

86、market in Q2 2023.Although CBRE has lowered its asking rent forecast,the city remains a strong retail market.Sluggish rent growth in Q2 2023 has led to the reevaluation of asking rents for Boston.Key changes to forecast012345678San FranciscoMiamiHoustonDenverPhiladelphiaChicagoWashington,DCAtlantaDa

87、llasSan DiegoBostonPhoenixSeattleLos AngelesManhattanChange YoY(%)2023YE(Feb Forecast)2023YE(Aug Forecast)Q2 2023 ActualHotels 0722CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Intelligent Investment2023 Real Estate Market Outlook Midyear Review|U.S.Forecast made in January 2023Midyear reviewHotel revenue growth was

88、positive but decelerated in H1 2023 and gross operating profit margins declined by 2.1 percentage points.We expect ADR growth to moderate further to 1.9%in H2 2023.This slower growth,coupled with stubbornly high wage growth of 5.5%,means margins likely will continue to fall,impacting hotel profitabi

89、lity.MARGINS WILL BE UNDER PRESSURE IN 2023A combination of moderating average daily rate(ADR)gains,higher-than-national-average wage growth,rising insurance premiums,labor shortages and other operating expenses will result in lower margins in 2023.03Group and business travel increased by 7%and 17%y

90、ear-over-year in H1 2023,respectively,both reaching 96%of 2019s levels.We expect the continued improvement in group and business travel to boost hotel demand in H2 2023 and H1 2024.RESURGENCE OF GROUP AND BUSINESS TRAVELThe steady return of group and business travel should support further demand gro

91、wth in 2023.Group and business room night bookings were at 93%and 87%of pre-pandemic 2019 levels last year.02The gap between U.S.inbound(+9%)and outbound(-22%)international travelers widened in H1 2023 compared with pre-pandemic H1 2019.Although continuing to improve,the pace of inbound internationa

92、l travel has been slower than expected due to less-than-expected visitation from China and Japan.Through July,inbound visitation from China and Japan was just 41%of 2019s levels.As a result,we have lowered our 2023 expectation for RevPAR growth to 4.6%from 6%.RETURN OF INTERNATIONAL TRAVELEasing of

93、travel restrictions in China and Japan should boost U.S.hotel demand in 2023.Inbound international visitation in 2022 was 71%of 2019s level;however,inbound international travel from Japan and China was just 27%of 2019s level,leaving sizeable upside potential in the new year.01Hotels23CBRE RESEARCH 2

94、023 CBRE,INC.Intelligent Investment2023 Real Estate Market Outlook Midyear Review|U.S.Source:CBRE Hotels Research,Kalibri Labs,Q2 2023.Figure 8:2023 RevPAR by Market,Current vs.Original ForecastsRevPAR Forecast Upgrades We have raised our earlier 2023 RevPAR growth forecasts by an average of 1.9 per

95、centage points for roughly one-third of the markets we track.We expect East Coast urban markets like Washington,D.C.and New York,as well as some smaller drive-to markets,will outperform.RevPAR Forecast Downgrades Markets that outperformed early in the recovery are experiencing declining RevPAR as tr

96、avel patterns have started to normalize.As a result,we have tempered our expectations for growth in markets like Miami,Austin and Saint Petersburg.As a result of the slower-than-expected recovery of visitors from Asia and the continued impact of remote work,CBRE Hotels Research expects that West Coa

97、st markets will continue to lag 2019 RevPAR levels through 2023.We have lowered our RevPAR growth forecasts for nearly 70%of the top 65 U.S.hotel markets by an average of 3 percentage points.Key changes to forecast050100150200250300Washington DCLong IslandAlbanyNewarkLouisvilleNew YorkHoustonTampaRa

98、leighKansas CityMemphisSalt Lake CityNashvilleCharlestonVirginia BeachHartfordRichmondDallasCoachella ValleyJacksonvilleOmahaCincinnatiAtlantaWest Palm BeachFort LauderdaleSavannahBaltimoreBostonColumbiaFort WorthOklahoma CityDenverColumbusCharlottePortlandSacramentoPhiladelphiaPhoenixPittsburghClev

99、elandHawaiiOrlandoSeattleSan DiegoAlbuquerqueChicagoAnaheimBirminghamDetroitMilwaukeeTucsonSaint LouisMinneapolisDaytonSan AntonioSaint PetersburgLos AngelesSan JoseAustinMiamiOaklandIndianapolisSan BernardinoSan FranciscoNew OrleansRevPar($)RevPAR Forecast UpgradesRevPAR Forecast DowngradesOriginal

100、 2023 RevPAR Forecast Copyright 2023.All rights reserved.This report has been prepared in good faith,based on CBREs current anecdotal and evidence based views of the commercial real estate market.Although CBRE believes its views reflect market conditions on the date of this presentation,they are sub

101、ject to significant uncertainties and contingencies,many of which are beyond CBREs control.In addition,many of CBREs views are opinion and/or projections based on CBREs subjective analyses of current market circumstances.Other firms may have different opinions,projections and analyses,and actual mar

102、ket conditions in the future may cause CBREs current views to later be incorrect.CBRE has no obligation to update its views herein if its opinions,projections,analyses or market circumstances later change.Nothing in this report should be construed as an indicator of the future performance of CBREs s

103、ecurities or of the performance of any other companys securities.You should not purchase or sell securitiesof CBRE or any other companybased on the views herein.CBRE disclaims all liability for securities purchased or sold based on information herein,and by viewing this report,you waive all claims a

104、gainst CBRE as well as against CBREs affiliates,officers,directors,employees,agents,advisers and representatives arising out of the accuracy,completeness,adequacy or your use of the information herein.ContactsResearchCapital Markets Leadership Darin Mellott Head of U.S.Capital Markets RJames Breeze

105、Global Head of Industrial Research Jessica MorinHead of U.S.Office Research Matt VanceHead of U.S.Multifamily RRichard Barkham,Ph.DGlobal Head of RHenry Chin,Ph.D.Global Head of Investor Thought LeadershipHead of Research,Asia PJulie WhelanGlobal Head of Occupier Thought LBrandon Isner Head of U.S.Retail RRachael RothmanHead of Hotels Research&Data Analytics Carsten RaaumAssociate Director,U.S.Capital Markets RChris Ludeman Global PresidentCapital MManish Kashyap Global PresidentAdvisory&Transaction SAdvisory&Transaction Services Leadership