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1、 2023 Boston Consulting Group1 The automotive industry is on the cusp of a major transformation driven by significant advances inautomotive soware.Historically,this soware primarily served as an enabler for hardware sales.Today,the industry is entering a new era in which soware takes center stage,tr

2、ansforming vehiclesinto“computers on wheels”and becoming a distinct value pool.Where Will Soware Drive the AutoIndustry Next?OCTOBER 06,2023 By Alex Koster,Nikolaus Lang,Markus Hagenmaier,Sophie Hohler,and Johannes WahlREADING TIME:12 MIN 2023 Boston Consulting Group2What does the transformation mea

3、n for the auto industry?Aer delving into the market context andemerging revenue pools,we present our five core beliefs about this impending shi and explain why“co-opetition”is essential for success.Soware Is Emerging as a Distinct Value PoolThe overall automotive soware and electronics market,includ

4、ing the supplier and consumersegments,is projected to grow to nearly$660 billion by 2030,more than doubling todays size of$320billion.(See Exhibit 1.)The supplier segment will grow to$411 billion by 2030(8%CAGR)while theconsumer segment will reach$248 billion(16%CAGR).From 2023 to 2035,we expect the

5、 overall market to experience 12%annual growth,reaching$1.2trillion.Of this amount,the soware and electronics supplier market will account for$600 billion,representing 25%of the general automotive supplier market.The soware and electronics consumersegment,consisting of revenues from soware-based ser

6、vices marketed to end consumers,willaccount for$550 billion,representing 15%of the general automotive consumer market.Adisproportionate share of the market growth will come from applications and the smart mobilityecosystem.(See“Under the Hood of Soware-Defined Vehicles.”)A soware-defined vehiclethat

7、 is,one whose features and functions are primarilyenabled through soware and datahas six layers that work in harmony to enable thecustomer experience:Vehicle Platform.Core mechanical platforms,such as sensors and wiring,that takeinformation from signal input to initiate an action or response from th

8、e vehicle.Compute Platform.Control units,semiconductors,and communications andconnectivity infrastructure.In other words,the hardware that enables high-performance computing with minimum energy consumption.Soware Platform.The control center of the vehicle that orchestrates functions andoperations of

9、 the vehicle,consisting of the operating system and middleware.Data Platform.The information-gathering module that generates relevant vehicleUNDER THE HOOD OF SOFTWARE-DEFINED VEHICLES 2023 Boston Consulting Group3performance insights and predictions through uninterrupted data collection about thedr

10、iver,the automobile,and the use of AI and analytics,among other things.Applications.Intelligent features and functions that provide a more animated,compelling,connected,and even autonomous driving experience.Smart Mobility Ecosystem.The vehicle ecosystem that helps to interact seamlesslywith other t

11、raffic participants,intelligent traffic infrastructure,electric vehicle chargers,smart grids,and smart homes,to name a few possibilities.Source:World Economic ForumCore Beliefs About the Auto Sectors Transformation 2023 Boston Consulting Group4We have developed five core beliefs about the market and

12、 industry landscape that will emerge fromthis period of transformative growth.The insights arise from our market model,which was developedthrough in-depth discussions with various leading stakeholders in the automotive soware industry aswell as independent research on each of the soware layers.1.Con

13、sumer Monetization Will Grow to$248 Billion by 2030Monetizing consumers through features of the mobility ecosystem and consumer-facing applicationsoffers vast potential for automakers.This includes,for example,selling consumers subscriptions toadvanced driver assistance systems(ADAS).In general,we e

14、stimate that consumer monetization willgrow from$87 billion in 2023 to$248 billion in 2030.The applications layer will drive the lions share ofthe growth,contributing$209 billion to total revenue.The surge in consumer-generated revenue is primarily driven by two factors.First,the emergence ofadvance

15、d driver assistance technologies is promoting significant revenue growth(see belief#2).Second,the adoption of subscription models for consumer-facing applications may increase aconsumers lifetime value(particularly related to advanced driver assistance systems)by 1.5 to 2.0times compared to lump-sum

16、 or one-off business models.By 2030,we anticipate that subscriptions willbe the underlying business model for 30%to 60%of the consumer-facing applications sold,dependingon the region.In addition,OEMs will see a significant upside from the increased loyalty of customers,who tend tostick with a brand

17、once they adopt digital services and customized soware.Beyond robust revenuegrowth,the consumer segments attractiveness originates from the promise of double-digit margins forcertain soware-enabled services.To capitalize on the opportunities,automotive OEMs must adopt the practices thattelecommunica

18、tions and tech firms have honed over many years in delivering digital services,employing up-selling and cross-selling techniques,and resolving issues.They also must build technicalinfrastructure that can continuously update consumer-facing soware.This requires offering over-the-air updates via the h

19、ighest-performance computing platforms(see belief#4).2.Autonomous Vehicles Will Contribute$305 Billion to Soware andElectronics Revenues,the Largest Share of GrowthAssisted and autonomous driving technologies,oen hailed as the“holy grail”of the automotiveindustry,will promote significant market grow

20、th.ADAS and autonomous driving(AD)systemsrepresent the largest potential among all soware-related features.We estimate that by 2030 they willcontribute$305 billion in revenue along the entire soware and electronics stack,includingapplications,data,and the soware,compute,and vehicle platforms.Of this

21、 amount,the consumersegment will contribute$150 billion via the application layer.The supplier segment will contribute$155billion along the entire stack.2023 Boston Consulting Group5Players that quickly master high levels of ADAS/AD will enjoy disproportionate benefits from consumerrevenue.Autonomou

22、s vehicles with ADAS technology of Level 2+or higher are projected to constituteonly about one-fih of the vehicle parc in 2030;however,they are expected to account for roughly halfof ADAS/AD revenues in the consumer segment.(See Exhibit 2.)Autonomous driving will not only serve as a significant addi

23、tional revenue pool but also will be crucialto meeting customer requirements.There is high customer demand for autonomous vehicles60%ofmiddle-income individuals express a desire to own one.Meeting customer demand is particularlyimportant for premium OEMs,as more than 70%of high-income consumers indi

24、cate a preference forautonomous vehicles.3.Soware Platforms Will Account for 2%of the Market,RequiringScalability Across AutomakersWe project that the soware platform market will represent only 2%of the overall soware andelectronics automotive market by 2030.It will have a CAGR of 12%from 2023 throu

25、gh 2030,growing to$13 billion.The main contributor to this growth will be safety-critical soware,driven by the adoptionof ADAS/AD systems.While safety-critical soware currently accounts for only half of the market,it willaccount for 70%in 2030.(See Exhibit 3.)2023 Boston Consulting Group6There is a

26、paradox at play for soware platforms.This layer is among the most unstable parts of thestack,leading to millions of bugs and malfunctions in cars.Yet most OEMs still prefer to buildsoware platforms in-house,rather than using external solutions from specialized providers.In theseefforts,they rely hea

27、vily on open-source soware(the related investment is not visible in our marketforecast).In fact,many large suppliers and tech players have considered entering the market but aredeterred by the low current value.Industry participants should have a keen interest in developing a more sustainable,indust

28、ry-widesolution.Scaling solutions across multiple players necessitates collaboration and standard setting,potentially involving neutral parties.Developer ecosystems form around such highly scaled solutions,further enhancing the value of the soware platform through external innovations.These innovati

29、onsultimately generate value for end customers,reinforcing the platforms importance.Developing anindustry-scale platform and open sourcing could be the answer,but the challenge lies in identifying thebest party to do this:an OEM,supplier,tech firm,or consortium.4.Compute Platforms Will Be a$138 Bill

30、ion Market,with Assisted Drivingand Infotainment Promoting Centralized ArchitecturesWe estimate that the market for compute platforms will grow from$103 billion today to$138 billion by2030,a 4%CAGR.The main growth driver will,again,be the adoption of higher levels of ADAS/AD(L2+,L3,and L4).This mark

31、et will reach$27 billion in 2030,a 25%to 30%CAGR.The purchase of 2023 Boston Consulting Group7electric vehicles will also play a significant role,with a market size for electric powertrains of$31 billionin 2030.(See Exhibit 4.)Growth in the market size for compute programs will be accompanied by cha

32、nges to vehicles electricaland electronic(E/E)architecture.The auto industry will transition from electronic control units(ECUs)to domain control units(DCUs)and more centralized compute architectures over time.This shipromises several advantages:This transition will be in full swing by 2030,when we

33、expect DCUs to contribute 40%to 50%of themarket value.However,the application of DCUs across different domains will be uneven.Weanticipate that,as of 2030,DCUs will primarily support features for ADAS/AD and infotainmentReduced Complexity.The benefits extend to both the soware stack and vehicle hard

34、ware(suchas wiring).Lower Costs.Although the per-unit cost for zonal and central control units significantly surpassesthat of ECUs,the overall expenses are lower because fewer control units are required.Enhanced Computing Power.Centralized computing provides greater computationalcapabilities to supp

35、ort ongoing soware and application updates.As a result,it also facilitatesthe decoupling of soware from hardware,enabling faster development cycles.2023 Boston Consulting Group8together accounting for 80%to 90%of the DCU market.Subsequently,DCUs and more centralizedcomputation will be adopted for th

36、e powertrain,body,and chassis.As a result,while the overallcompute platform market may only see moderate growth,certain segments,such as DCUs andsystem-on-a-chip,will experience above-average growth and cannibalize other subsegments.These shis underscore that it is more important than ever for semic

37、onductor companies to be at theforefront of innovation.Recent strategic moves and collaborations focusing on the development ofchips for higher ADAS/AD levels highlight the need to be innovation leaders in this rapidly evolvinglandscape.5.Collaborating with Local Champions Is Essential to Tap into C

38、hinasMarket,Surpassing$200 Billion by 2030The growing need for customization in the automotive soware industry is leading to the emergence oflocal champions.This is particularly true in China,where region-specific soware solutions areincreasingly essential to meet unique customer preferences and spe

39、cific governmental requirements,such as those relating to data collection and sharing,high-definition map development,and ecosystemfeatures.Today,automotive soware spending per vehicle in China is significantly lower than in Westernmarkets.This is driven by two factors.First,adoption rates of key te

40、chnologies trail Europe and theUS.For example,40%of vehicles sold in China in 2023 are still not equipped with ADAS/ADtechnologies,compared with only 25%to 30%in Western markets.Second,prices in China are 55%to70%of European and US levels.As a result,the average consumer spending on automotive sowar

41、ein China today is less than$1,000 per new car sold.By 2030,the dynamics will change.Not only will China catch up with Western markets in terms ofADAS/AD adoption,but price levels will surge to 85%to 90%of those in Western markets.Although wewill continue to see lower adoption of subscription models

42、 in China,the overarching developments willresult in average consumer spending of more than$2,500 on automotive soware per new car sold.In 2030,the regional Chinese automotive market is expected to be worth more than$200 billion,accounting for more than 30%of global growth.(See Exhibit 5.)The consum

43、er and supplier marketswill generate revenues of$80 billion and$125 billion,respectively.Chinas global leadership in marketgrowth will result from the rapid rate of AD adoption,the high share of BEVs,and sales volumeexceeding 30 million cars.We expect robust growth to persist beyond 2030.The markets

44、 considerablesize will allow local players to reach a critical scale and form their own ecosystem within China,tosome extent independent from the rest of the world.2023 Boston Consulting Group9The most recent Shanghai auto show demonstrated that Chinese OEMs and their supplier ecosystemhave surpasse

45、d Western ecosystems in speed,quality,price,and functionality.Chinese start-up OEMsare innovating with dramatically faster cycles due to their capabilities in E/E architectures andsoware.They are likely to win a significant share globally soon.This may intensify geopoliticaltensions and dependencies

46、.For Western ecosystem participants,these developments underscore theurgency to understand their own strengths,collaborate in strategic partnerships,and find points ofjoint opportunity.The collaboration between Ford and Chinese technology company Baidu is an earlyexample of such a strategic partners

47、hip.Success in the Evolving Market Requires“Co-opetition”The market values forecasted by our analyses underscore that no player can single-handedly conquerthe soware and electronics market.The various challengessuch as inadequate technologicalcapabilities,lack of scale,limited access to end customer

48、s,and local market differencesare tooformidable.Each of our five core beliefs is implicated.For example,to capture consumer revenue,OEMs and big tech players must combine capabilities and assets,such as end-customer access orexperience in developing and deploying consumer-facing technologies.2023 Bo

49、ston Consulting Group10Consequently,the industry is set to witness a surge in new partnerships and supplier deals,includingcollaborations between auto and tech companies,and between tech firms themselves.As theircapabilities gain importance,we expect to see emerging tech players capture significant

50、parts of themarket.In 2030,up to$350 billion will be at stake,with traditional auto players and emerging techplayers all seeking their share.In this context,companies will gain a competitive advantage by jointlycreating offers that combine their capabilities and assets.This approach requires a blend

51、 ofcompetition and cooperation,hence the term“co-opetition.”For more insights into how new partnerships will reshape the industry,please see our joint publicationwith the World Economic Forum,“Rewriting the Rules of Soware-Defined Vehicles.”We anticipate that the market for automotive soware and ele

52、ctronics will soar to$660 billion in 2030,more than twice its current size.The adoption of customer-facing technologies will contribute$248billion in consumer revenue.Strong market growth in China will generate more than$100 billion innew revenue.To realize the opportunities,auto industry participan

53、ts will need to combine theircapabilities.Each participant brings strengths that are essential for competing in the new landscape,yet no player possesses the full set of necessary capabilities.The path to success thus requires acollaborative approach in which players join forces and collectively mon

54、etize soware.The winnersmantra is clear:“Co-opetition is the new competition.”2023 Boston Consulting Group11AuthorsAlex KosterMANAGING DIRECTOR&SENIOR PARTNERZurichNikolaus LangMANAGING DIRECTOR&SENIOR PARTNER;GLOBAL LEADER,GLOBAL ADVANTAGEPRACTICEMunichMarkus HagenmaierASSOCIATE DIRECTORViennaSophi

55、e HohlerPROJECT LEADERMunichJohannes WahlASSOCIATEMunichABOUT BOSTON CONSULTING GROUPBoston Consulting Group partners with leaders in business and society to tackle their most importantchallenges and capture their greatest opportunities.BCG was the pioneer in business strategy when it wasfounded in

56、1963.Today,we work closely with clients to embrace a transformational approach aimed atbenefiting all stakeholdersempowering organizations to grow,build sustainable competitive advantage,and drive positive societal impact.Our diverse,global teams bring deep industry and functional expertise and a ra

57、nge of perspectives thatquestion the status quo and spark change.BCG delivers solutions through leading-edge managementconsulting,technology and design,and corporate and digital ventures.We work in a uniquely collaborative 2023 Boston Consulting Group12model across the firm and throughout all levels

58、 of the client organization,fueled by the goal of helping ourclients thrive and enabling them to make the world a better place.Boston Consulting Group 2023.All rights reserved.For information or permission to reprint,please contact BCG at .To find the latestBCG content and register to receive e-alerts on this topic or others,please visit .Follow BostonConsulting Group on Facebook and Twitter.