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1、CITY FISCAL CONDITIONS2023About the National League of Cities The National League of Cities(NLC)is the voice of Americas cities,towns and villages,representing more than 200 million people.NLC works to strengthen local leadership,influence federal policy and drive innovative solutions.About the Cent

2、er for Research and DataNLCs Center for Research and Data provides research and analysis on key topics and trends important to cities.AuthorsFarhad Omeyr,PhD,Program Director,Center for Research and Data,National League of Cities.Ivonne Montes-Diaz,PhD,Senior Research Specialist,Center for Research

3、and Data,National League of Cities.Shuhan“Alice”Ai,Research Assistant,Center for Research and Data,National League of Cities.Acknowledgments The authors would like to thank Erica Grabowski,Program Manager,Research and Data,for her contributions to this report.The authors also gratefully acknowledge

4、the respondents to this years fiscal survey.The commitment of finance officers to the project is critical to its continued success.The authors wish to offer special thanks to Melissa Williams,Director of Marketing and Communications,and Karen Nava,Director of Visual Design,for their contributions.20

5、23 National League of Cities.All Rights Reserved.TABLE OF CONTENTForeword 4Introduction 7Fiscal Structure and the Economy 8Revenue and Spending Trends 10Tax Sources 14Perspectives on Ability to Meet Fiscal Needs 16Beyond 2023 20Appendices 22Endnotes 27PHILADELPHIA,PAFOREWORDThe past several years ha

6、ve been challenging for Americas cities,towns,and villages but also full of opportunities and achievements.Thanks to the timely and historic federal support in the American Rescue Plan Act(ARPA)and the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law(BIL)from which local governments continue to benefit,our cities are

7、making a strong and sustainable fiscal recovery from the recession brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic.Despite facing abnormally high levels of inflation during 2022,cities have seen their tax basis surge as post-pandemic economic activities picked up,property values rose,and unemployment rates drop

8、ped to historic lows.This has resulted in higher-than-expected sales,property,and income tax revenues,which have helped local governments balance their budgets and invest in critical public services,maintenance,and infrastructure.However,as we look ahead to the next fiscal year,our cities face some

9、uncertainties and challenges.With ARPA funding set to expire in 2026,the question remains whether cities will be able to fully maintain the investments made with their ARPA funds using their own sources of revenue.The National League of Cities,equipped with resources available to all members,stands

10、ready to help cities determine how they can ensure the investments they made through ARPA remain sustainable in the long term.Now in its 38th year,NLCs City Fiscal Conditions report aims to provide valuable insight and shed light on the state of municipal budgets today We believe that with sound fis

11、cal management,strategic planning,and continued state and federal support,despite potential bumps in the road,our cities,villages and towns will continue to thrive and prosper in the years to come.NLC will be there to support them every step along the way.CLARENCE E.ANTHONYCEO AND EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR

12、National League of CitiesINTRODUCTIONThe COVID-19 pandemic was a major shock for the economy and the public sector,especially for municipal governments that faced unprecedented challenges in delivering essential services and maintaining fiscal stability.However,thanks to timely and critical support

13、from the federal government,cities were able to overcome the worst effects of the COVID recession1 and recover some of their lost revenues and expenditures.Now,three years after the outbreak of the pandemic,cities are back on their feet,but they are not fully confident about their near-term future.O

14、ur survey analysis reveals that many cities are still very cautious in their budgeting and planning for the current and next fiscal year,as they anticipate potential risks and uncertainties in the post-COVID era.Our analysis of this years City Fiscal Conditions survey shows that Americas cities,vill

15、ages and towns have had a strong rebound in their fiscal health and budgets since the COVID recession,in part thanks to timely and critical infusion of funds from the federal government,overall health of the local economies and increased value of city taxes.Federal stimulus programs,such as the Coro

16、navirus Aid,Relief,and Economic Security(CARES)Act,the American Rescue Plan Act(ARPA)and the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law(BIL),continue to provide much-needed relief and support for cities to address pandemic-related costs and revenue losses,as well as opportunities to invest in infrastructure and

17、other long-term priorities.The economic recovery also has boosted city tax bases,especially property and sales taxes,which are the main sources of city revenues.However,high inflation levels in the last year eroded some of the value of city tax revenues.That said,cities cautious approach to budgetin

18、g has helped them maneuver through these fiscally uncertain times.Looking ahead,municipal governments remain vigilant about their approach to balancing their budgets,mostly due to budgetary pressures and costs associated with hiring and retaining their workforce and meeting infrastructure needs.Thei

19、r sense of caution only emphasizes the importance of continued federal support and intergovernmental fiscal help in forms similar to ARPA and BIL if our cities,villages and towns are to stay fiscally resilient and healthy.6NATIONAL LEAGUE OF CITIES7CITY FISCAL CONDITIONS 2023FISCAL STRUCTURE AND THE

20、 ECONOMYCities in the United States generate much of their revenue by designing their own tax and fee structures within limits imposed by their respective states.Consequently,cities fiscal structures vary across the country,with some relying heavily on property taxes and others primarily on sales ta

21、xes.Only a few cities approximately one in 10 rely on income or wage taxes.Each source of revenue responds to economic changes differently.Local property tax revenues are driven by the value of residential and commercial property,with property tax bills determined by local governments assessment of

22、property values.Because of assessment practices,property tax revenues typically reflect the value of a property anywhere from 18 months to several years prior,so they are less immediately responsive to economic changes than other types of taxes.While property tax revenues are considered a lagging in

23、dicator of economic changes,sales taxes are elastic or more responsive to economic changes and often better reflect economic shifts.This is because people tend to spend more on goods and services when consumer confidence is high,and vice versa.Like sales taxes,income taxes are also a more elastic so

24、urce of revenue.At the city level,income tax revenues are driven primarily by income and wages,rather than by capital gains(New York City is a notable exception).89NATIONAL LEAGUE OF CITIESCITY FISCAL CONDITIONS 2023REVENUE AND SPENDING TRENDSThis analysis includes final data for cities fiscal year

25、2022 revenues and expenditures and budgeted fiscal year 2023 revenues and expenditures.Specifically,fiscal year 2022 is the fiscal year for which finance officers have closed the books(and verified the final numbers).Fiscal year 2023 is the fiscal year that ended by June 30,2023,for most cities and

26、will end by December 31,2023,for others.We examine year-over-year growth of general fund expenditures and revenues,adjusted for inflation(in 2012 constant dollars),and include fiscal data over several years.Constant-dollar general fund revenues declined by 0.46 percent in fiscal year 2022 compared t

27、o fiscal year 2021,with cities anticipating a year-over-year decline of 2.41 percent for fiscal year 2023.This is mainly because both sales and income tax revenues are expected to stabilize after a period of strong growth that occurred when the economy rebounded following the fiscal shock of the COV

28、ID-19 pandemic.Interestingly,looking at nominal(not adjusted for inflation)figures,we can see that the average city experienced more than a 6-percent increase in its current(i.e.,unadjusted for inflation)general fund revenues.This was due not only to a healthy 2021 housing market(which significantly

29、 increased property tax receipts)and a rebound in the overall economy after the COVID-19 public health precautions were lifted(bringing sales tax receipts back to fiscal year 2019 levels)but also to a large influx of federal monies through ARPA.Several cities experienced noteworthy revenue expansion

30、,which can be attributed to a combination of factors.For instance,Detroit,MI,witnessed a remarkable 21-percent increase in revenue.This surge can be largely attributed to an increase in income tax collections.Philadelphia,PA,also experienced a substantial growth of 20 percent in revenue,with tax rev

31、enue increases and locally generated non-tax revenue contributing to the rise.Similarly,Albuquerque,NM,saw a revenue increase of 16 percent,primarily due to elevated sales tax receipts and a surge in property tax collections.CITYSPOTLIGHTSConstant dollar general fund revenues declined by 0.46%in FY2

32、022 compared to FY2021.In nominal dollars,the average city experienced more than a 6%increase in general fund revenues.1011NATIONAL LEAGUE OF CITIESCITY FISCAL CONDITIONS 2023Power BI DesktopFigure 1:General funds show marginal decline as cities rein in spending and implement responsible budgeting i

33、n times of moderate fiscal uncertaintyPERCENTAGE(%)CHANGE IN EXPENDITURES AND REVENUES YEAR TO YEAR(1996-2023)-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%YearPercentage(%)Change19861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023

34、(budExpendituresRevenueSource:NLC analysis of data from the City Fiscal Conditions survey and annual financial reports2023(budgeted)At the time when many cities and towns put their 2023 budgets together(i.e.,during fiscal year 2022),many still believed that the United States(and global)economy would

35、 be headed toward another fiscal downturn.Therefore,and as the City Fiscal Conditions 2022 report revealed last year,cities prepared for a potential fiscal downturn by reining in their revenue and expenditure budget estimates.However,the recent economic outlook shows that the U.S.economy may instead

36、 be headed for a“soft landing”a gradual slowdown of growth without a sharp contraction in which city budgets may not be impacted as negatively as once believed.2 Compared to fiscal year 2021,constant-dollar average spending in fiscal year 2022 shows a modest 2.82 percent decline.Fiscal year 2023 spe

37、nding levels are still declining by an additional 0.68 percent over fiscal year 2022 figures.However,the decline is less significant than between 2021 and 2022,as many city governments tried to rein in their expenditure levels in anticipation of a potential slowdown of the economy.312NATIONAL LEAGUE

38、 OF CITIESPower BI DesktopFigure 2:Sales and income taxes grew in 2022,while property taxes show signs of growth in 2023PERCENTAGE(%)CHANGE IN TAX REVENUES FROM YEAR TO YEAR(1996-2023)-10%-5%0%5%10%YearPercentage(%)Change1996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201

39、520162017201820192020202120222023(budgPropertySalesIncomeSource:NLC analysis of data from the City Fiscal Conditions survey and annual financial reportsNote:More than 50%of the cities collect sales taxes.Only 10%of the sample collects income tax.2023(budgeted)TAX SOURCESThree principal general fund

40、revenue sources have been tracked for the annual City Fiscal Conditions report for over 28 years4.As Figure 2 demonstrates,the year-to-year changes in each of the three major sources of revenues property,sales and income reflect the changing elements of the underlying economic bases of the cities.Bo

41、th income and sales tax receipts increased,rather substantially,in 2022 over the previous fiscal year as businesses in many states continued revenue growth trends after the reopening of the economy and as unemployment rates steadily declined.5 Property tax collections,on the other hand,experienced n

42、egative growth(in 2012 constant dollars),despite a very strong housing market for most of fiscal years 2020 and 2021.While 2022 property tax values show a large,almost 4 percent increase(in nominal values)over 2021,high inflation rates during most of 2022 significantly deflated the constant value of

43、 tax receipts.The two revenue sources that respond immediately to changes in the underlying economy sales tax and income tax generally follow the business cycle and are considered elastic.As the economy slows,retail sales tax receipts and income tax revenue decline at the same time;as the economy gr

44、ows,sales and income taxes tend to increase.Property tax receipts,however,lag the underlying economys changes due to assessment practices as well as to the fact that property does not change hands frequently,requiring assessors to estimate the value of real estate property.Consequently,property tax

45、receipts today tend to reflect the value of property from one,two or three years in the past.(Please refer to Appendix B for a detailed discussion on lag between economic and city fiscal conditions.)As most cities expected the economy to go through a period of relative slowdown toward the latter hal

46、f of 2023 cities tempered their expectations and estimated all three major types of tax revenues rather conservatively in their 2023 budget projections.6 Fiscal year 2023 property tax receipts are expected to increase marginally by some 0.91 percent(year-over-year).Sales tax receipts in 2023 are exp

47、ected to experience a 3.14-percent year-over-year decline(after an extraordinarily strong FY 2022),while income tax revenues are expected to decline by 5.91 percent(adjusted for inflation).Three major sources of revenues property,sales and income reflect the changing elements of the underlying econo

48、mic bases of the cities.1415NATIONAL LEAGUE OF CITIESCITY FISCAL CONDITIONS 2023PERSPECTIVES ON ABILITY TO MEET FISCAL NEEDS Following a strong 2022 fiscal year in which average city taxes increased significantly over fiscal year 2021 nearly seven out of ten finance officers report being better able

49、 to meet their financial needs in FY 2023 than in 2022(please refer to Appendix A for a discussion on the survey collection and analysis).Of course,timely federal interventions in the form of ARPA funds which provided direct Asked about factors that had the most positive impacts on cities ability to

50、 balance their 2023 budgets,16%percent of respondents reported federal aid as having positive impact.Power BI DesktopFigure 3:Value of city taxes most positively affects city budgets while prices,inflation,and costs have the most negative impactPERCENTAGE(%)OF CITIES INDICATING A POSITIVE OR NEGATIV

51、E EFFECT ON BUDGETS FOR FY20230%5%10%15%20%25%30%Percentage(%)of Total ResponsesValue of city tax baseHealth of local economyAmount of federal aid to cityAmount of state aid to cityPopulation(number of people in the city)Federal mandates/requirementsHuman/social service needsCost of employee/retiree

52、 pensionsState mandates/requirementsOil pricesCost of employee/retiree health benefitsPublic safety needsEmployee wages and salariesInfrastructure needsPrices,inflation,costsFactors Affecting FY2023 Budgets30%21%16%12%10%1%1%1%2%2%2%1%3%2%2%2%1%2%3%3%4%4%6%8%16%19%25%PositiveNegativeSource:City Fisc

53、al Conditions Survey(2023)financial support to cities general operations coupled with a strong rebounding of the economy contributed to the overall positive fiscal outlook reflected in city finance officers sentiment.In fact,our survey finds that the value of city taxes,health of the local economy a

54、nd amount of federal aid to cities were the factors city finance officers most commonly identified as having the most significant positive impacts on city budgets.1617NATIONAL LEAGUE OF CITIESCITY FISCAL CONDITIONS 2023Despite a positive outlook for the fiscal year 2023,only about 50 percent of the

55、same group of finance officers reported optimism(in balancing budgets)for fiscal year 2024.This is likely because many governments remain cautious due to the near-term period of fiscal uncertainty.Relatedly,many municipal governments have tempered their expectations for tax revenues in their 2023 op

56、erating budgets(compared to large tax levels collected in fiscal year 2022).Finance officers report that prices,inflation and costs,infrastructure needs,and employee wages and salaries as among the factors having negative impacts on city budgets.These factors,along with fiscal caution due to a momen

57、tarily volatile national economy,have created a fiscal gap for many cities,forcing them to make difficult choices between raising taxes,cutting spending or borrowing money.The rising prices of goods and services have eroded the purchasing power of city revenues and increased the costs of providing p

58、ublic services.The aging and deteriorating infrastructure of many cities requires significant investments for maintenance and upgrades,but the available funding sources are limited and often insufficient(a fact that underscores the significance of federal transfers such as the BIL).Finally,contractu

59、al obligations to city employees,as well as employee expectations,have put pressure on city budgets.Power BI DesktopSource:City Fiscal Conditions Survey(2007-2023)Note:See Appendix Table 1 for data from 1990-2023 Figure 4:Cities remain cautious about their ability to balance their 2024 budgetsPERCEN

60、TAGE(%)IF CITIES BETTER OR LESS ABLE TO BALANCE BUDGET COMPARED TO LAST YEAR0%50%100%Year2007 2008 20092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320240%50%100%Better Able To Balance Budget Less Able To Balance BudgetPercentage(%)of Responding Cities19CITY FISCAL CONDITIONS 2023BEYOND 20

61、23Overall,both sales tax and income tax revenues have rebounded sharply for cities across the nation as early as 2021,while the rebound in property tax revenues lagged and only starting to increase again in 2023.As the country began to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic and states lifted“lockdown”or

62、ders in 2021,cities experienced a strong recovery in their economic activities and tax collections.This reflects recovery from a time when many businesses had to close or reduce their operations,leading to unprecedented declines in retail sales and wages.These losses had a direct and immediate effec

63、t on the tax revenues of cities that rely on sales tax or income tax(or both)to fund their general operations.Over the last 18 months,consumers have regained their confidence and spending power,while employers have increased their hiring and wage levels.Fiscal year 2022,and to some extent 2023,was a

64、 challenging but rewarding one for many U.S.cities.According to this years City Fiscal Conditions survey data,2022 city tax revenues increased significantly in nominal terms(not adjusted for inflation),despite the high inflation rates that eroded some of the gains.This reflects the resilience and ad

65、aptability of local economies in coping with unprecedented shocks,as well as the importance of federal support(in the form of ARPA)in helping cities,villages and towns in times of fiscal hardship.Although high inflation rates eroded some of the purchasing power of these revenues in 2021 and 2022 lea

66、ding many cities to be prudent and conservative in their budget planning in anticipation of a possible downturn in the national economy by late 2023 the Federal Reserves market interventions7 helped to stabilize price levels and curb the inflationary spiral.As a result,cities can expect to see more

67、real growth in their tax revenues in the coming years,which will enable them to fund their public services and infrastructure projects more effectively.Moreover,the cautious budgeting approach adopted by many cities in 2023 may prove to be beneficial in the long run,as they have built up some fiscal

68、 reserves and avoided excessive spending.This approach allows for optimism in the fiscal health of our cities,towns and villages despite the nearing decrease in federal allocations such as ARPA.The latest estimations also show that the U.S.economy may avoid another recession and instead achieve a“so

69、ft landing.”This scenario would be favorable for cities,as it would reduce the risk of revenue shortfalls and fiscal stress.In conclusion,while cities,villages and towns faced difficulties in last couple of years due to the COVID-19 pandemic,they have shown resilience and adaptability in managing th

70、eir finances,and they should be able to look forward to a more optimistic and stable economic environment in 2023 and beyond.2021NATIONAL LEAGUE OF CITIESCITY FISCAL CONDITIONS 2023APPENDICES Appendix A:About the SurveyThe NLC City Fiscal Conditions survey is a national survey of finance officers in

71、 U.S.cities conducted annually in June and July.Surveys are emailed to city finance officers from cities with various populations sizes(shown in table A1 below).Officers are asked to give their assessments of their cities fiscal conditions and given approximately 11 weeks to respond.The survey also

72、requests budget and finance data from all but 200 of the nations large cities;data for those cities were collected directly from online city budget documents.8 For 2023,we collected data from a total of 820 unique cities.Data collected for 287 cities(35 percent of the entire sample)come from Annual

73、Comprehensive Financial Reports(ACFRs)and budget documents.Data for the other 533 cities(65 percent of the total sample)come from the survey.Therefore,the data allow for generalizations about the fiscal conditions in cities such as these.Details about population size and geographic region are shown

74、in Tables A1 and A2 below.Table A1:Sample by city populationPopulationPercentage(%)of Cities inSample300,000+10%100,000-299,99919%50,000-99,99918%10,000-49,99916%10,00038%Source:City Fiscal Conditions Survey(2023)Table A2:Sample by regionRegionPercentage(%)of Cities inSampleMidwest31%Northeast8%Sout

75、h32%West28%Source:City Fiscal Conditions Survey(2023)Much of the statistical data presented here must also be understood within the context of cross-state variations in tax authority,functional responsibilities and accounting systems.The number and scope of governmental functions influence both reve

76、nues and expenditures.For example,many Northeastern cities are responsible for funding not only general government functions but also public education.Additionally,some cities are required by their states to assume more social welfare responsibilities or traditional county functions.9Cities also var

77、y according to their revenue-generating authority.Certain states notably Kentucky,Michigan,Ohio and Pennsylvania allow their cities to tax earnings and wages.Meanwhile,several cities such as those in Colorado,Louisiana,New Mexico and Oklahoma depend heavily on sales tax revenues.Moreover,state laws

78、vary in how they require cities to account for funds.10When we report on fiscal data such as general fund revenues and expenditures,we are referring to all responding cities aggregated fiscal data.Therefore,the data are influenced by relatively larger cities that have more substantial budgets and th

79、at deliver services to a preponderance of the nations residents.11When we report on non-fiscal data such as finance officers assessments of their cities ability to meet fiscal needs,or factors they perceive as affecting their budgets we refer to the percentage of officers responding in a particular

80、way.Each citys response to these questions is weighed equally,regardless of population size,as our analysis is at the city level,not the population level.2223NATIONAL LEAGUE OF CITIESCITY FISCAL CONDITIONS 2023Appendix B:The Lag between Economic and City Fiscal ConditionsIn economic terms,“lag”refer

81、s to the amount of time between economic conditions changing and those conditions having an impact on city revenue collections.In general,cities experience the impacts of changing economic conditions quite early.However,because most fiscal reporting occurs on an annual basis,those impacts are genera

82、lly not immediately evident.HOW LONG IS THE LAG?The lag can last anywhere from 18 months to several years and is largely related to the timing of property tax collections.Because property tax bills are calculated based on property assessments from a previous year,dips in real estate assessed values

83、rarely occur simultaneously with economic downturns.Sales and income tax revenues also exhibit lags due to various collection and administrative issues,but such lags typically do not last for more than a few months.For example,Figure 1 shows year-to-year changes in city general fund revenues and exp

84、enditures.It includes markers for the official U.S.recessions that began in 1991,2001,2007 and 2019 with low points,or“troughs,”occurring in March 1991,November 2001,June 2009 and April 2020,respectively.When we overlay data from NLCs annual surveys,12 we find that the low points for city revenues a

85、nd expenditures lag about two years behind the onset of recessions.For instance,the low point for the 1991 recession occurred in 1993,approximately two years after the recessions trough(the recession took place between March 1991 and March 1993).Additionally,during the 2001 recession,the low point o

86、ccurred in 2003,approximately 18 months after the recession trough(that recession lasted from November 2001 to April 2003).It should be noted,however,that because the annual NLC City Fiscal Conditions survey is conducted at slightly different times each year,there is some degree of error in the leng

87、ths of these lags.For instance,had the survey been conducted in November 1992 rather than in April 1993,we might have seen the effects of changing economic conditions earlier.Nevertheless,the evidence suggests that it takes 18-24 months for the effects of changing economic conditions to become evide

88、nt in city budgets.Appendix C:Data TablesTable C1:Year-over-year change ingeneral fund revenues andexpendituresPercentage(%)change in revenues andexpenditures(1986-2023)YearRevenuesExpenditures19864.18%3.78%19870.34%-0.11%19883.57%1.97%19890.70%-0.32%1990-0.37%1.88%1991-0.73%0.58%19920.07%-0.48%1993

89、0.60%-0.72%19940.99%0.59%19951.31%1.58%19962.91%3.92%19971.48%1.42%19982.21%1.38%19990.17%1.15%20001.01%0.80%2001-0.51%2.03%20020.01%3.10%2003-0.66%-1.14%2004-1.00%-0.44%20051.61%0.06%20061.85%1.89%2007-0.41%2.45%2008-1.12%0.43%2009-2.42%0.83%2010-4.68%-5.28%2011-1.94%-3.64%2012-1.97%-1.29%20130.44%

90、-0.18%20140.81%1.12%20153.91%3.76%20163.47%3.04%20171.25%2.16%20180.62%1.95%20193.50%0.62%2020-0.97%1.34%2021-0.60%0.61%2022-4.16%-2.85%2023(Estimate)-2.41%-0.68%Source:NLC analysis of data from the City Fiscal Conditionssurvey and annual financial reportsTable C2:Year-over-year change insales,incom

91、e and property taxreceiptsPercentage(%)change in tax revenue(1996-2023)YearIncomePropertySales1996-0.20%1.20%3.50%19970.90%1.70%3.10%19983.80%1.20%5.70%1999-0.35%0.25%1.15%2000-0.39%0.61%2.51%2001-0.91%1.29%-6.01%2002-4.88%4.72%-3.08%2003-3.62%1.58%-2.12%2004-2.77%2.83%0.53%2005-0.48%2.92%1.22%20062

92、.97%4.67%3.67%2007-3.05%5.75%-0.85%2008-2.19%1.73%-2.19%20091.38%4.32%-6.49%2010-1.91%-2.86%-9.34%2011-2.14%-3.54%1.96%20123.36%-1.49%5.16%20131.95%-2.80%2.29%2014-2.12%1.98%2.68%20156.01%3.96%5.68%20164.56%5.11%3.26%20171.30%2.60%1.80%20180.84%1.83%0.22%20192.75%4.84%4.99%20201.39%-0.67%4.66%20215.

93、32%-5.22%8.73%2022-5.91%0.91%-3.14%2023(Estimate)1.39%-0.67%4.66%Source:NLC analysis of data from the City Fiscal Conditionssurvey and annual financial reports2425NATIONAL LEAGUE OF CITIESCITY FISCAL CONDITIONS 2023Appendix C:Data Tables(continued)Table C3:Percentage(%)of citiesbetter or less able t

94、o balance theirbudgets compared to the year priorYearBetter AbleLess Able199033%67%199121%79%199222%78%199334%66%199454%46%199558%42%199665%35%199768%32%199869%31%199975%25%200073%27%200156%44%200245%55%200319%81%200437%63%200563%37%200665%35%200770%30%200836%64%200912%88%201013%87%201143%57%201257%

95、43%201372%28%201480%20%201582%18%201681%19%201769%31%201873%27%201976%24%202022%78%202165%35%202289%11%202369%31%202450%50%Source:City Fiscal Conditions Survey(1990-2023)ENDNOTES1 The COVID-19 recession officially started in February 2020 and ended in April 2020,making it one of the shortest and dee

96、pest global recessions in history.2 Morgan Stanley Research believes that the US economy can achieve a“soft landing,”which means slowing economic growth while avoiding a recession.See Zentner,E.(2023,May 24).Soft Landing:U.S.Fed Economic Outlook 2023.Morgan Stanley Research.https:/ also Carlsson-Szl

97、ezak,P.,Swartz,P.,&Reeves,M.(2023,July 21).What Happens After the U.S.Economys Soft Landing?Harvard Business Review;and El-Erian,M.(2023,August 24).A US growth-inflation“soft landing”is vital to solving the global economy puzzle.The Guardian.3 In terms of expenditures,46 of the cities surveyed menti

98、oned Public Safety as the item with the biggest change between fiscal year 2021 and fiscal year 2022.Twenty-nine cities indicated referenced expenditures on General Government as the item with the biggest change,with high inflation rate in fiscal year 2022 as the main driver of the increase.Other ci

99、ties saw increases in expenditure in Culture,Parks and Recreation,as the demand for leisure increased;public libraries,zoos,golf camps and pools reopened;and public lands and parks incurred additional expenditures.4 While general fund revenues and expenditures have been tracked for 38 years,differen

100、t revenue sources(property,sales,and income taxes)have been tracked for 28 years,as part of the City Fiscal Conditions annual report.5 Based on analysis of 287 city budgets and Annual Comprehensive Financial Reports(ACFRs)for fiscal years 2021,2022 and 2023.6 In 2023 budget estimates.7 Cranston,M.(2

101、022,March 17).Fed hikes rates,signals aggressive turn against inflation.The Australian Financial Review.https:/ Fiscal data for the larger 200 cities in the sample are collected manually(and double checked)in order to ensure the accuracy of the data.This is mainly because the estimated average in th

102、e analysis are weighted averages and any inaccuracies in the data entered for these larger 200 cities could significantly impact the estimated figures.9 Analysis based on the examination of 287 ACFRs and city budgets document over a time frame of 27 years(1996-2023).10 Based on the analysis of 287 A

103、CFRs and city budgets.11 This is largely because the unit of analysis in City Fiscal Conditions analysis is“city budgets”and not“per capita dollars.”12 Including both the data collected through the annual survey of governments as well as the data collected from publicly available data from ACFRs and

104、 budget documents.2627NATIONAL LEAGUE OF CITIESCITY FISCAL CONDITIONS 2023NLC is a strategic partnerfor local leaders and municipal staffserving communities large and small.JOIN OUR NETWORKand get access to timely resources,proven best practices,andconnections to peer networks.Visit www.nlc.org/membership to learn more.