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1、Institute for Economics&Peace Analysing ecological threats,resilience&peace2023ECOLOGICALTHREATREPORTConflict&ClimateMegacities&MigrationEcological ThreatsResults&TrendsInstitute forEconomics&PeaceQuantifying Peace and its BenefitsThe Institute for Economics&Peace(IEP)is an independent,non-partisan,

2、non-profit think tank dedicated to shifting the worlds focus to peace as a positive,achievable,and tangible measure of human well-being and progress.IEP achieves its goals by developing new conceptual frameworks to define peacefulness;providing metrics for measuring peace;and uncovering the relation

3、ships between business,peace and prosperity as well as promoting a better understanding of the cultural,economic and political factors that create peace.IEP is headquartered in Sydney,with offices in New York,The Hague,Mexico City,Brussels and Harare.It works with a wide range of partners internatio

4、nally and collaborates with intergovernmental organisations on measuring and communicating the economic value of peace.For more information visit www.economicsandpeace.orgPlease cite this report as:Institute for Economics&Peace.Ecological Threat Report 2023:Analysing Ecological Threats,Resilience&Pe

5、ace,Sydney,November 2023.Available from:http:/visionofhumanity.org/resources(accessed Date Month Year).ECOLOGICAL THREAT REPORT 2023|1Appendix A:The ETR Indicator Sources,Definitions&Scoring Criteria 62Appendix B:ETR Domain Scores 64Appendix C 69Endnotes 70Introduction 46Megacities 49Ecological Chal

6、lenges to Cities 50The Link Between Conflict,Climate,and Ecological Threats 40Food Insecurity 23Focus Area:Food Insecurity and Local Livelihoods 25Water Risk 27Focus Area:Water Stress in Russia and Eurasia 29Natural Disasters 30Disasters and Resilience 32Focus Area:Disaster Relief Funding 33Demograp

7、hic Pressure 34Focus Area:The Youth Bulge 35Overview 8Methodology and Results 10Threat Severity 12Threats by Region 12Ecological Threats and Conflict 13Country Hotspots 14Hotspots:Shocks and Resilience 18Key Findings 4ContentsEcological Threats21Conflict,Climate and Ecological Threats39EXECUTIVE SUM

8、MARY2Results and Trends75PolicyRecommendations544Megacities and Migration45 2|ECOLOGICAL THREAT REPORT 2023EXECUTIVE SUMMARYThis is the fourth edition of the Ecological Threat Report(ETR),which analyses ecological threats in 221 independent states and territories.Produced by the Institute for Econom

9、ics&Peace(IEP),the report covers 3,594 sub-national areas which account for 99.99 per cent of the worlds population.The ETR assesses threats relating to food insecurity,water risk,natural disasters,and demographic pressure.The research takes a multi-faceted approach by analysing ecological threats a

10、t the national,subnational,and city level,while also assessing the threats against societal resilience and levels of peace.Comparing ecological threats against societal resilience enables IEP to identify the global regions,countries,and subnational areas most at risk of an ecological disaster,both n

11、ow and into the future.The key finding from the 2023 ETR is that without concerted international action,current levels of ecological degradation will substantially worsen,thereby intensifying a range of social issues,such as malnutrition and forced migration.Current conflicts will escalate and multi

12、ply as a result,creating further global insecurity.IEP estimates that by 2050,2.8 billion people will reside in countries facing severe ecological threats,compared to 1.8 billion in 2023,with 1.1 billion of these people living in countries with low societal resilience.A nexus of interrelated challen

13、ges sustain and feed off each other.Systemic effects compound,ensnaring countries in conflict traps that are difficult to escape.This nexus is explored in this report,highlighting both the significant impact of high population growth,ecological collapse,and weak societal resilience,and their relatio

14、nship to conflict.These are issues that need to be addressed systemically.Europe and North America are the only two regions where no countries currently face a severe ecological threat.Of the 221 independent states and territories covered in the ETR,66 face at least one severe ecological threat.Almo

15、st half of the countries in the ETR face at least one high level ecological threat,but not every region is equally affected.Ecological threats are considerably higher in sub-Saharan Africa than any other region.Almost all of the 103 sub-national areas that face severe threats across all four domains

16、 are in sub-Saharan Africa.Similarly,of the 30 hotspot countries which face severe ecological threats and have low levels of societal resilience,19 are in sub-Saharan Africa.The four most at risk countries are Ethiopia,Niger,Somalia and South Sudan.Food insecurity remains a major global issue.Global

17、 food prices have fluctuated significantly in recent years and are currently 33 per cent higher than they were in 2016.There are currently 42 countries facing severe food insecurity,and almost four billion people live in areas with high or severe food insecurity,with the majority in sub-Saharan Afri

18、ca.As many as five billion people could be living in areas with high or severe food insecurity by 2050.Water risk is also a significant ecological threat,and is getting worse.Approximately two billion people globally do not have regular access to safe drinking water.There are 77 countries where the

19、level of water risk is high or severe,meaning that over 20 per cent of the population live in areas without access to safe drinking water.There are now 25 countries where over 80 per cent of the renewable water supply is used,up from 17 just five years ago.While water risk is highest in sub-Saharan

20、Africa,it is also increasing in the Middle East and North Africa,Russia and Eurasia.The risk posed by natural disasters continues to increase.Over 1.8 billion people live in areas that face severe risk from natural disasters,and there is a strong chance that more than five per cent of the population

21、 will be severely impacted by a devastating natural hazard.There are 44 countries with both a high risk of natural disasters,and low resilience.The impact of extreme weather events is compounded when countries have low levels of resilience.The inability of many countries to deal with the impact of n

22、atural disasters has led to a greater need for disaster relief funding.In 2022,35 per cent of total funding from the UN Central Emergency Response Fund(CERF)was dedicated to providing aid in the aftermath of natural disasters,compared to just 17 per cent a decade ago.Increasing demographic pressure

23、compounds the risks caused by other ecological threats,as rapid population growth places increasing strain on public resources and societal resilience,particularly in areas already at risk and have low levels of peacefulness.Over 40 per cent of the subnational areas in the world are expected to reco

24、rd population growth of more than 20 per cent by 2050.Nearly half of this population growth will occur in countries with very low levels of peacefulness.The 40 least peaceful countries in the world will have an additional 1.3 billion people by 2050,at which point they will account for just under hal

25、f of the total world population.Sub-Saharan Africas population is predicted to rise to 2.2 billion or 60 per cent by 2050.The growth is so high that the total population of people aged 15 or under in the region is projected to be higher than the entire population of Europe.2|ECOLOGICAL THREAT REPORT

26、 2023Executive Summary ECOLOGICAL THREAT REPORT 2023|3Ecological threats increase the risk of conflict,both now and in the future.A 25 per cent increase in food insecurity,as measured by the ETR,increases the risk of conflict by 36 per cent.Additionally,the same increase in water risk and natural di

27、sasters increases the risk of conflict by 18 per cent and 21 per cent respectively.The impact on conflict risk is greatest in areas with a history of conflict,a lack of resilience,and weak institutions.Ecological threats have the greatest impact on conflict in regions like the Sahel,which face major

28、 deficiencies in governance and the rule of law,high levels of poverty,and high climate variability.These areas are especially prone to conflict in the aftermath of an ecological shock like a flood,drought,or other natural disaster,especially where long-term climate variation is an issue.The magnitu

29、de of this impact will increase as the long-term effects of climate change start to take hold.However,the impact of climate change on conflict should not be overstated.The exact mechanisms by which climate change will lead to increased conflict risk are not yet fully understood.Some conflicts which

30、have been attributed to climate change may have been the result of weak institutions and pre-existing conflict over resources.For example,recent analysis of conflict around Lake Chad has argued that political mismanagement of water resources,rather than changes in the lake itself,has played the bigg

31、er role in fuelling conflict.As intensifying ecological threats lead to more conflict,the risk of an increase in forced displacement rises.The number of forcibly displaced people in the world now stands at over 108 million.Between 2020 and 2023,22 per cent of refugees moved to countries with higher

32、average levels of water risk,and 18 per cent moved to countries with higher levels of food insecurity.A large majority of displaced people are likely to end up in cities.More than 60 per cent of refugees and 80 per cent of internally displaced people have moved to cities.The proportion of the world

33、living in urban areas is set to rise from 54 to 70 per cent by 2050.Much of this growth is happening in megacities,urban areas of more than ten million people.Many of the megacities that are growing rapidly will not be able to cope with the rising population.Megacities with low tax revenue will not

34、be able to build appropriate infrastructure,provide security,schooling or jobs.The increasing strain on city resources,will likely lead to an increase in pollution,urban unrest,and the number of people living in informal settlements.The two countries with the most megacities with high growth,low per

35、 capita income and low societal resilience are Nigeria and Democratic Republic of the Congo.Ecological threats,societal resilience and low levels of peacefulness will not be resolved without concerted international action.The 2023 ETR includes many policy recommendations aimed at supporting local co

36、mmunities to improve water capture,agricultural yields and resilience.Some of the key recommendations include:Building resilience in a way that is holistic and broadens the range of actors involved.International agencies need new integrated structures that operate systemically,combining health,food,

37、water,refugee relief,finance,agricultural,development and other functions.Empowering local communities.Community-led approaches to development and human security result in more effective programme design,easier implementation,and higher levels of sustainability.Many innovative programs build water r

38、esilience.Sand dams in Kenya,chlorine dispensers for safe water in Malawi and engineered wetlands in China provide examples of programs that build water resilience,cheaply and effectively.Farmer Managed Natural Regeneration(FMNR),has regenerated millions of hectares of degraded land in Africa and ha

39、s exceptional potential,due to the low cost of implementation and has the potential to improve the lives of tens,if not hundreds of millions of people.In summary,ecological threats will continue to create humanitarian emergencies,increase conflict and result in forced migration,unless there is a sus

40、tained effort to reverse the current trend.Ecological threats are becoming more pronounced and affect more people than ever.Building resilience to these threats will require substantial investment now and into the future.ECOLOGICAL THREAT REPORT 2023|3Executive SummaryIncreasing demographic pressure

41、 compounds the risks caused by other ecological threats,as rapid population growth places increasing strain on public resources and societal resilience,particularly in areas already at risk and have low levels of peacefulness.4|ECOLOGICAL THREAT REPORT 2023KEY FINDINGSSECTION 1:RESULTS AND TRENDS Of

42、 the 221 independent countries and territories in the ETR,66 face at least one severe ecological threat.Forty-five per cent of the countries covered in the ETR face either high or severe threat level.The number of people living in countries facing at least one severe threat will increase significant

43、ly in the next 50 years.IEP estimates that by 2050,2.8 billion people will reside in countries facing severe ecological threats,compared to 1.8 billion in 2023.Most of the increase will be in sub-Saharan Africa.By 2050,sub-Saharan Africas population is predicted to rise to 2.2 billion,an increase of

44、 over 60 per cent,which will dramatically increase pressure on existing food and water supplies.A strong statistically significant relationship exists between increases in violence and ETR scores for food,water,natural disasters and population.There is no statistically significant relationship betwe

45、en militarisation and any of the ETR domains.The ETR also measures ecological threat at the subnational level,across 3,594 subnational administrative areas.Around 38 per cent of these areas are facing at least one severe ecological threat.There are 103 sub-national areas that face severe levels of e

46、cological threat in all four domains.217 million people live in these areas,almost all of them in sub-Saharan Africa.1.1 billion people live in 30 countries that face severe ecological threats and have extremely low societal resilience.These hotspot countries are clustered in three regions:sub-Sahar

47、an Africa,which has 19 countries with at least one hotspot area,the Middle East and North Africa(MENA)which has five countries with a hotspot area,and Asia-Pacific,which has two countries with a hotspot area.Four subnational areas in Ethiopia and Niger face extreme threats in all four domains.There

48、are 69 million people who live in these four areas.The four most at-risk countries are all in sub-Saharan Africa:Ethiopia,Niger,Somalia and South Sudan.Europe and North America are the only two regions where no countries face any severe or high ecological threats across any of the four domains.Count

49、ries with very low levels of Positive Peace have a fatality rate seven times higher than those with very high levels of Positive Peace after experiencing a natural disaster.Angola,DRC,Libya,Iraq and Timor Leste all have fossil fuel income that are more than 25 per cent of GDP.They all also face subs

50、tantial ecological threats and have low societal resilience.They are the countries most likely to face economic challenges from the green energy transition.These countries could face up to 60 per cent loss of their GDP between 2023 and 2040.SECTION 2:ECOLOGICAL THREATS Food Insecurity remains a majo

51、r issue globally.The Global Food Price Index is currently 33 per cent higher than in 2016,after successive increases of 35 per cent following COVID,and then a further 18 per cent following the Russian invasion of the Ukraine.42 countries face severe food insecurity.Surveys from these countries show

52、that more than 65 per cent of the population have been unable to afford food for their family at some point in the past year.More than one billion people in sub-Saharan Africa live with high or severe levels of food insecurity.This number is expected to increase to almost two billion by 2050.35 of t

53、he 52 countries and territories in sub-Saharan Africa suffer from extreme food insecurity.81 per cent of people suffering from extreme food insecurity globally live in sub-Saharan Africa.In sub-Saharan Africa 62 per cent of the population live in areas with high or severe levels of food insecurity.F

54、ood insecurity is more likely to occur in areas with small monoculture farms that depend on the sale of cash crops.Water security is a key driver of conflict,with water-related violent incidents exhibiting a threefold increase on average since 2000.Globally,there are 46 countries where the level of

55、water risk is severe,and a further 31 countries where the level of water risk is high.This is where more than 20 per cent of the population does not have access to clean drinking water.Two billion people live in areas without access to safe drinking water.The number of countries using more than 80 p

56、er cent of their renewable water supply for irrigation,livestock,industry,and domestic purposes has risen from 17 in 2019 to 25 in 2023.Most of these countries are located in sub-Saharan Africa and MENA.By 2040,MENA is projected to have the same water stress as sub-Saharan Africa.Water scarcity is e

57、xpected to worsen in numerous countries in the Russia and Eurasia region by 2040.This could have a significant impact on agriculture in the region.Over 1.8 billion people live in subnational areas at severe risk from natural disasters,defined as a strong chance that over five per cent of the populat

58、ion will be impacted by a devastating natural hazard.Key FindingsECOLOGICAL THREAT REPORT 2023|5KEY FINDINGS The impact of carbon-induced climate change is likely to accelerate over the next 80 years.Data on the relationship between climate change and conflict is limited but will increase in the com

59、ing decades.By contrast,the relationship between ecological threats and conflict is much clearer.The combination of seasonal and long-term climate changes,short-term ecological threats,a history of conflict,a lack of resilience and weak institutions leads to an increased risk of conflict.Shifts in E

60、TR scores are associated with increased risk of conflict.A shift in indicator scores of 25 per cent for food insecurity,natural disasters,and water risk increases the risk of conflict by 36 per cent,21 per cent,and 18 per cent respectively.Ecological threats have the biggest impact on conflict in re

61、gions like the Sahel,which face major deficiencies in governance and rule of law,high levels of poverty and short-term climatic variations.The primary way that ecological threats increase conflict is by increasing competition for resources.However,countries with high levels of resilience and strong

62、institutions are better able to deal with increased resource competition.Food insecurity is strongly linked to armed conflict.Areas of high food production are often also areas of significant conflict.Ecological shocks that damage livelihoods can increase opportunities for armed extremist groups to

63、recruit new members The transition zone in the Sahel accounts for 7.6 per cent of the total land mass,but just under 16 per cent of total deaths.A transition zone lies between arid landscapes and areas with adequate rainfall.Conflict over goods from the global commons like fisheries is increasingly

64、common as demand increases and effects of climate change affect ocean ecology.This is particularly acute during climatic extremes like El Nino events.Interstate conflict becomes more likely following rising temperatures or rainfall shocks,especially where states stand to lose from existing agreement

65、s on water sharing.The impact of climate change on conflict can be overstated compared to the impact of political instability.For example,recent analysis of lake Chad,has argued that political mismanagement of water resources has played the bigger role in fueling conflict.When countries lack resilie

66、nce,natural hazards,such as earthquakes or floods,are more likely to become natural disasters.There are 44 countries with both a high risk of natural disasters,and low resilience.These countries are home to more than four billion people.Thirty-five per cent of total funding from the UN Central Emerg

67、ency Response Fund(CERF)was dedicated to aiding in the aftermath of natural disasters in 2022,compared to just 17 per cent a decade ago.CERF pledged almost$200 million USD to aid 21 countries following a natural disaster in the first seven months of 2023,surpassing the yearly total for eight of the

68、past ten years.Demographic pressure poses a significant ecological threat in many regions of the world.Over 40 per cent of the subnational areas in the 2023 ETR are expected to record population growth of at least 20 per cent between now and 2050.The bulk of this population increase is likely to occ

69、ur in countries with low levels of peacefulness.Nearly half the population of the world is projected to be living in countries with very low levels of peacefulness,as measured by the GPI,by 2050.The 40 least peaceful countries will have an additional 1.3 billion people by 2050,at which point they wi

70、ll account for just under half of the total world population.Most countries in the world are transitioning to stable or contractionary population structures,as the number of young people relative to the number of old people continues to decline.Sub-Saharan Africa is still expected to increase its po

71、pulation by just under 62 per cent by 2050,from 1.3 billion to 2.2 billion people.Total youth population growth in sub-Saharan Africa is so high that the number of people aged 15 or under in the region is projected to be higher than the entire population of Europe by 2050.SECTION 3:CONFLICT,CLIMATE,

72、AND ECOLOGICAL THREATS Key Findings 6|ECOLOGICAL THREAT REPORT 2023KEY FINDINGSSECTION 4:MEGACITIES AND MIGRATION There are currently 33 megacities in the world,meaning cities with a population of ten million or more.By 2050,there are projected to be at least 50.The percentage of people globally liv

73、ing in urban areas is expected to grow from 54 per cent to 70 per cent by 2050.The number of people living in cities will grow by 2.5 billion by 2050.The three largest megacities in the world in 2050 are expected to be Mumbai,Delhi and Kinshasa with populations of 42,36,and 35 million respectively.M

74、ore than 60 per cent of the worlds current megacities are in low or very low peace countries.268 million people live in megacities with very low peace.There is a significant negative correlation between projected megacity growth,and their level of peacefulness.While the percentage of people living i

75、n informal settlements or slums has fallen in most low-income countries,it has increased in fragile and conflict affected situations(FCAS).Nearly 55 per cent of the urban population in FCAS areas live in informal settlements.Most of the countries with the biggest growth in cities do not have the fin

76、ancial resources to manage the growth,with per capita income being lowest in Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.Cities in these countries are less likely to be able to cope with the demand for services generated by such rapid population growth.Urban expansion can have a detrimental eff

77、ect on its surrounding areas.Total global cropland is forecast to shrink by 1.8 to 2.4 per cent by 2030 because of increasing urbanization.Most growth in urbanisation has exacerbated many existing environmental,social,political and economic issues,including higher concentrations of pollution,more pr

78、onounced socio-economic differences and overwhelming existing infrastructure.In 2019,the five most air polluted cities all had readings of more than 16 times the WHO recommended annual limit;Lahore recorded 25 times,Kabul 24 times,Hetian Shi 23 times,Hapur 22 times,and Agra 21.9 times.All five citie

79、s are in Asia.Of the 20 most polluted cities only three are not in India or China.Most of the worlds megacities are in countries with low levels of peacefulness.Of the 33 megacities 21 are in countries with low or very levels of peacefulness.Most of the worlds megacity growth will take place in Afri

80、ca and Asia.Eight of the ten largest megacities will be from these regions in 2050.Megacities in Africa face significant environmental challenges.Of the ten largest megacities in the region,nine are facing at least one severe ecological threat,other than population growth.Migration and displacement

81、will be major issues for megacities in the near future.The number of forcibly displaced people in the world now stands at over 108 million.Most refugees and displaced people move into cities.More than 60 per cent of all refugees and 80 per cent of internally displaced people move to cities.The ETR d

82、ata reveals that a significant portion of illegal crossings between 2020 and 2022 originated from countries facing severe food and climate insecurity.Key FindingsECOLOGICAL THREAT REPORT 2023|7RESULTS AND TRENDS|Section 1Results and Trends1 Of the 221 countries and territories in the ETR,66 face at

83、least one severe ecological threat.Forty-five per cent of the countries covered in the ETR face either high or severe threat level.The number of people living in countries facing at least one severe threat will increase significantly in the next 50 years.IEP estimates that by 2050,2.8 billion people

84、 will reside in countries facing severe ecological threats,compared to 1.8 billion in 2023.Much of this increase will be in sub-Saharan Africa.By 2050,sub-Saharan Africas population is predicted to rise to 2.2 billion,an increase of over 60 per cent,which will dramatically increase pressure on exist

85、ing food and water supplies.A statistically significant relationship exists between increases in violence and ETR scores for food,water,natural disasters and population.There is no statistically significant relationship between militarisation and any of the ETR domains.The ETR also measures ecologic

86、al threat at the subnational level,across 3,594 subnational administrative areas.Around 38 per cent of these areas are facing at least one severe ecological threat.There are 103 sub-national areas that face severe ecological threats in all four domains.217 million people live in these areas,almost a

87、ll of them in sub-Saharan Africa.1.1 billion people live in 30 countries that face severe ecological threats and have extremely low societal resilience.These hotspot countries are clustered in three regions:sub-Saharan Africa,which has 19 countries with at least one hotspot area,the Middle East and

88、North Africa(MENA)which has five countries with a hotspot area,and Asia-Pacific,which has two countries with a hotspot area.The four most at-risk countries are all in sub-Saharan Africa:Ethiopia,Niger,Somalia and South Sudan.Four subnational areas in Ethiopia and Niger face extreme threats in all fo

89、ur domains.There are 69 million people who live in these four areas.Europe and North America are the only two regions where no countries face any severe or high ecological threats across any of the four domains.Countries with very low levels of Positive Peace have a fatality rate seven times higher

90、than those with very high levels of Positive Peace after experiencing a natural disaster.Angola,DRC,Libya,Iraq and Timor Leste all have fossil fuel income that are more than 25 per cent of GDP.They all also face substantial ecological threats and have low societal resilience.They are the countries m

91、ost likely to face economic challenges from the green energy transition.These countries could face a loss of up to 60 per cent of their fossil fuel rents between 2023 and 2040.KEY FINDINGSSection 1|RESULTS AND TRENDS 8|ECOLOGICAL THREAT REPORT 2023OverviewThe Ecological Threat Report(ETR)is a compre

92、hensive,data-driven analysis covering 3,594 sub-national areas across 221 countries and territories.It covers 99.99 per cent of the worlds population and assesses threats relating to food insecurity,water risk,demographic pressures,and natural disasters.This report identifies countries that have the

93、 highest risk,both now and in the future,of suffering from major disasters due to the ecological threats they face,the lack of societal resilience,and other factors.These countries are also the most likely to suffer from conflict.The 2023 ETR aims to provide an impartial,data-driven foundation for t

94、he debate about ecological threats facing countries and sub-national areas and to inform the design of resilience-building policies and contingency plans.The world is facing many instances of instability related to ecological threats.In 2022,natural hazards resulted in 32.6 million people being disp

95、laced across 151 countries.1 Rapid population growth and food insecurity in regions,such as sub-Saharan Africa and parts of MENA have been stressors of socio-political instability for the past fifty years or more.Water scarcity and rapidly growing populations in the Lake Chad region are exacerbating

96、 preexisting political and social instabilities,in turn increasing stress on already scare resources.2 The clashes between Iran and Afghanistan regarding water distribution in the Helmand River and Hamun Lake escalated to conflict along the border in 2023,resulting in deaths on both sides is an exam

97、ple of this risk.3 While changes in methodology make it difficult to compare ETR scores across years,some similarities and patterns persist from year to year.Many of the same countries continue to face extremely severe ecological threats as in previous years,with Afghanistan,Mozambique,and Madagasca

98、r consistently ranking among the countries with the highest ecological threats.Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia are the regions with the highest ETR scores over time.The Sahel region faces numerous social,political and economic vulnerabilities and holds the worlds highest concentration of hotspot c

99、ountries.The region has high rates of conflict and terrorism.Seven of the ten countries within the Sahel are classified as“hotspots”,meaning they have low levels of resilience and face at least one severe ecological threat:Cameroon,Chad,Guinea,Mali,Mauritania,Niger and Nigeria.Many of these areas ar

100、e already experiencing armed conflict.The balance between human activity and the planets ecology is coming under increasing stress.As many as 1.8 billion people live in areas with limited access to clean drinking water.This figure is projected to rise to 2.8 billion by 2050.With the global populatio

101、n expected to grow by around one-quarter over the next 30 years,water shortages,food insecurity,and the severity of natural disasters are likely to substantially increase.Looking forward,climate change will likely act as a threat multiplier,potentially exacerbating competition,and tensions among gro

102、ups and countries with inadequate resources and low resilience.The number of natural hazards,including floods and droughts,has tripled over the last four decades and is likely to continue growing.4 The latest IPCC report projects more extreme fires and floods,and longer droughts.5 These ecological d

103、isasters lead to mass displacement as individuals search for basic security.For example,when unprecedented precipitation from Storm Daniel converged with inadequate maintenance of dams,catastrophic flooding occurred in Derna,Libya.It is estimated that the flood killed as many as 20,000 and displaced

104、 over 30,000 people,sweeping at least a quarter of the city into the Mediterranean Sea.6,7 With the global population continuing to increase,rising consumption expands humanitys ecological footprint.As a result,the effects of ecological catastrophes are set to become more pronounced.While mitigation

105、 strategies are available,they are substantially underfunded,and the damage will be irreversible.8 These ecological factors will interact,compounding the pressures on many countries.These challenges will have an adverse effect on existing social and political structures.Recent examples of forced mas

106、s migration show the impact of negative shocks often extend well beyond national and even continental boundaries.Drought in the Horn of Africa has displaced nearly two million in Ethiopia,South Sudan and Somalia,with nearly 200,000 people crossing borders into similarly drought-stricken areas in Ken

107、ya and Ethiopia.9 Additionally,record-breaking wildfires across Canada have also demonstrated the impact of ecological threats extending beyond borders.10 Smoke from the wildfires caused air quality alerts to be issued in the United States,particularly in Northeastern and Midwestern cities like New

108、York,Cincinnati,and Chicago,ultimately reaching 32 states.11 The 2023 ETR aims to help refine the debate on the linkages between ecological change and peacefulness.The ETR also underlines how societies can create resilience through building Positive Peace and using systems analysis approaches to bet

109、ter understand the dynamics of their societal and ecological systems,as described in Box 1.1.The balance between human activity and the planets ecology is coming under increasing stress.As many as 1.8 billion people live in areas with limited access to clean drinking water.This figure is projected t

110、o rise to 2.8 billion by 2050.ECOLOGICAL THREAT REPORT 2023|9RESULTS AND TRENDS|Section 1Positive Peace is defined as the attitudes,institutions and structures that create and sustain peaceful societies.It was first conceptualised in the 1960s and empirically derived by IEP in 2012 with the developm

111、ent of the Positive Peace Index(PPI).Positive Peace is the social,economic and governance factors that create highly functional societies,including peace and resilience.Positive Peace is also statistically connected to many other things considered important,including higher GDP growth,stronger measu

112、res of well-being,and better performance on the ecology and better developmental outcomes.Countries that perform well in Positive Peace tend to operate with higher levels of peace as measured by the GPI.They also tend to improve more rapidly than their peers in the GPI ranking.Research has shown tha

113、t a country that enjoys high levels of Positive Peace is more capable of shielding its population from the immediate impacts of adverse shocks,including droughts,floods and earthquakes;and recovers more quickly in their aftermath.Thus,Positive Peace is often seen as a gauge of socio-economic resilie

114、nce.Nations operate according to the principles of societal systems.This means social,economic and political developments mutually affect one another,and it is difficult,if not impossible,to identify unique causes of events and trends.Another feature of social systems is that their internal structur

115、e may change depending on the severity of a shock.If a system is hit by a weak shock,it can respond without changing its internal configuration.For example,if a country is impacted by a mild economic recession,authorities will just need to respond with palliative measures that will not alter the str

116、ucture of the economy or the fabric of society.BOX 1.1 An introduction to Positive Peace,Resilience and Systems ThinkingHowever,if a system is impacted by a high severity shock,or if the system has a low degree of resilience,the disruption may cause ruptures in the systems internal configuration.For

117、 example,there are many instances of nations that descended into a state of social disarray in 2020 and 2021 because of the COVID-19 pandemic and global recession.The Global Peace Index(GPI)2022 highlights that during the pandemic,global peace deteriorated.This period placed heightened stress on pre

118、-existing political and economic tensions in many countries.For example,Lebanon continues to grapple with deteriorating economic conditions and political instability triggering thousands of demonstrations nationwide.These events caused a reconfiguration of the political system.In Sri Lanka,violence

119、demonstrations erupted in early 2022 in response to daily power cuts and shortages of basics such as fuel,food and medicine,resulting in the eventual resignation of both the President and Prime Minister.The system adjusted by seeking IMF loans and debt forgiveness as well as citizens adjusting their

120、 purchases and daily routines.The threats assessed in the ETR can generate severe shocks to nations.A countrys ability to cope will depend on the severity of the shock and the levels of socio-economic resilience.In nations with low socio-economic resilience,the shocks can trigger tumultuous breakdow

121、ns in their internal structure.This can result in frayed international relations,growing risk of conflict,forced displacement of persons both internal and cross-border,and a fertile environment for recruitment into radical militant organisations.The concept of Positive Peace is discussed in more det

122、ail in the section Positive Peace and Hotspots below.A more in-depth exposition is found in the Positive Peace Report 2022(https:/www.visionofhumanity.org/).Section 1|RESULTS AND TRENDS 10|ECOLOGICAL THREAT REPORT 2023Methodology and ResultsThe ETR focuses on four categories of threat that are direc

123、tly related to drivers of conflict.These threats are classified by severity from Very Low to Severe.A country is defined as facing a severe threat if it exceeds one or more of the following thresholds:Food Insecurity:More than 65 per cent of the population could not afford food for their families in

124、 the past year.Natural Disasters:A higher than eight per cent chance of facing a natural disaster that negatively impacts more than five per cent of the population.Demographic Pressure:More than 70 per cent increase in population by 2050.Water Risk:More than 20 per cent of the population do not have

125、 access to clean drinking water.The ETR is calculated at the sub-national administrative level of a country,according to its relative threat level on four domains.A sub-national score is calculated as the maximum severity it faces across all four threats.For more details,see the methodology section

126、or the methodology at a glance in Box 1.2.FIGURE 1.1Ecological Threat Report scores,2023Sub-Saharan Africa is the region with the most severe ecological threats.Source:IEPMEASURING THE IMPACT OF ECOLOGICAL THREATS2023 ECOLOGICAL THREAT REPORTLowMediumHighSevereNot IncludedVery LowETR SCOREFigure 1.1

127、 highlights the severity of ecological threats faced by 3,594 sub-national areas,with areas in red facing at least one severe threat.It shows that the most vulnerable countries are clustered in certain geographical regions:sub-Saharan Africa,Middle East and North Africa(MENA),and South Asia.These re

128、gions are also the least peaceful,as measured by the GPI.For a list of the 221 countries covered in the report please refer to Appendix B.ECOLOGICAL THREAT REPORT 2023|11RESULTS AND TRENDS|Section 1The Ecological Threat Report(ETR)was developed to identify countries at the highest risk of ecological

129、 threats.The ETR focuses on the problems of resource scarcity and natural disasters and their impact on peacefulness.The ecological threats included in the ETR are water risk,food risk,population growth and natural disasters.The ETR facilitates analysis of the impacts of ecological threats on peacef

130、ulness and the role of societal resilience in determining the ability to adapt and mitigate such risks.The ETR is a multi-indicator composite measure of risk,which is calculated in two steps.In the first step,all indicators are normalised on a one to five scale,with a higher score representing a hig

131、her threat level.This calculation is at the sub-national level.In the second step,the overall ETR score is calculated using the maximum of the individual ecological threats.BOX 1.2 Methodology at a glanceAt the national level,a countrys indicator score is the population weighted average of its sub-n

132、ational areas.Thus,for a country to have a severe score for a given indicator,all sub-national areas in the country must be facing a severe threat level for that indicator.A countrys overall ETR score is the maximum score of any its four indicators.Thus,if a country has at least one indicator score

133、of severe,its overall ETR score will be rated as severe.Some countries may have a small number of ecological threats,but these threats may be severe.When combined with low resilience,these are the countries most at risk and are further discussed in the Severe Threats,Positive Peace and Hotspot sub-s

134、ectionsSection 1|RESULTS AND TRENDS 12|ECOLOGICAL THREAT REPORT 2023THREAT SEVERITYFigure 1.2 displays the distribution of countries by the severity of the ecological threat they face.Of the 221 countries in the ETR,30 per cent have at least one severe ecological threat.These countries are home to a

135、n estimated 1.8 billion people or 22 per cent of the global population.By 2050,this figure is projected to rise to 2.8 billion people,with the largest overall increases occurring in Nigeria,Democratic Republic of the Congo,Tanzania and Ethiopia.While not all of the population of these countries will

136、 suffer from the direct impact of adverse ecological events,the indirect impact will be felt widely.This is especially the case if the countries are facing conflict,civil unrest,or poor governance.Displacement of persons and competition for food and water resources may cause the impact of the origin

137、al shock to transcend across national,and even continental boundaries.FIGURE 1.2Distribution of the ETR threats,percentage of countries,202345 per cent of the countries in the ETR are facing at least one severe or high ecological threat.Source:IEP CalculationsMedium,25%Low,10%Severe,30%Very Low,19%H

138、igh,15%THREATS BY REGIONThe level of ecological threat faced by countries is not uniform.There is considerable variation within regions.Europe and North America are the only two regions where no countries face a severe threat.Even in sub-Saharan Africa,the region with the highest overall average thr

139、eat level,there are countries facing only a medium level of ecological threat.Figure 1.3 shows the overall average score for each region in the 2023 ETR.North America and Europe are the two regions with the lowest average score,whereas South America,South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa are the regions

140、with the highest average score.Sub-Saharan Africa has the worst ETR score,with 49 of the 52 countries and territories in the region facing at least one severe ecological threat.By 2050,sub-Saharan Africas population is predicted to rise to 2.2 billion,an increase of over 60 per cent,which will incre

141、ase pressure on existing food and water supplies.Sub-Saharan Africa also has the highest proportion of its population suffering from food insecurity.Most countries across sub-Saharan Africa are dependent on rain-fed agriculture,making the region particularly vulnerable to changes in climatic conditi

142、ons,such as prolonged droughts and seasonal floods.12 Agriculture is the mainstay of most economies in the region,accounting for just over 17 per cent of value-added GDP,higher than in any other region.13 South Asia recorded the second highest ETR score.The region has the highest natural disasters s

143、core,with Bhutan being the only country in South Asia where the threat of natural disasters was rated very low.Natural disasters exacerbate other ecological threats,particularly resource scarcity.Moreover,rapid population growth and unplanned urbanisation coupled with environmental degradation and c

144、limate change have increased the regions exposure and risk to natural hazards,resulting in more frequent,intense,and increasingly costly disasters.FIGURE 1.3Average ETR score by region,2023Sub-Saharan African and South Asian countries have the highest average ETR score.Source:IEP Calculations ETR SC

145、ORE12354EuropeNorth AmericaCentral America and the CaribbeanRussia and EurasiaSouth America24%MENAAsia-PacificSouth Asiasub-Saharan AfricaHigher threatLower threatECOLOGICAL THREAT REPORT 2023|13RESULTS AND TRENDS|Section 1ECOLOGICAL THREATS AND CONFLICTThere is a strong correlation between ecologic

146、al threats and peacefulness.Table 1.1 displays the statistically significant correlations between the prevalence of ecological threats and the three GPI domains.The prevalence of all four ecological threats increases where countries are less peaceful in the Safety and Security and Ongoing Conflict d

147、omains.Militarisation is the only domain not strongly correlated to ecological threat.The strong relationship between peacefulness and ecological threats highlights that less peaceful countries have a higher prevalence of ecological threats,particularly food insecurity and water stress.The strongest

148、 relationship is between the prevalence of food security and Safety and Security,with a correlation coefficient of 0.69.This is followed by the relationship between water risk and Safety and Security,with a correlation coefficient of 0.59.These relationships would be expected as food insecurity and

149、water risk can be either an exacerbating factor or direct result of conflict,violence or political instability.South Asia recorded the second highest ETR score.The region has the highest natural disasters score,with Bhutan being the only country in South Asia where the threat of natural disasters wa

150、s rated very low.TABLE 1.1Correlation of ETR scores with GPI Domain Scores,2023There is a very strong correlation between food insecurity and water risk and peace.ETR IndicatorSafety and SecurityOngoing ConflictMilitarisationFood Insecurity0.690.450.06Water Stress0.590.36-0.01Natural Disasters0.390.

151、230.03Demographic Pressure0.490.420.14Source:IEPIncreased ecological threats from a changing climate will have security implications at the micro and macro levels.When local communities experience ecological shocks,they can then lead to political instability when the countrys levels of resilience ar

152、e low.For example,when a record-breaking drought in Kenyas rift valley limited access to land and water in the region,pre-existing conflict and grievances amongst herders and farmers were amplified,with conflict in the region resulting in 200 deaths in 2021.14 Similarly,in South Sudan,ongoing confli

153、ct and a multi-year drought drove unprecedented levels of food insecurity.15 Security can also be affected when mitigating actions taken by one community negatively affects another.This has been seen in the hydroelectric dams and irrigation systems.Examples include dams in Trkiye,China and Ethiopia

154、that restricted access to water in downstream countries.16 A consequence of natural disasters,water scarcity,food insecurity,and above-average temperature is that they cause migration and displacement.Individuals fleeing harm can add more pressure to areas that are not directly affected by the disas

155、ter.Migration can intensify competition over jobs,housing,and other resources.17 The relationship between conflict,ecological threat,and climatic changes are explored in more detail in Section 3 of this report.Section 1|RESULTS AND TRENDS 14|ECOLOGICAL THREAT REPORT 2023Countries have different leve

156、ls of capacity to respond to ecological threats due to the varying strength of their societal systems.This capacity to respond is captured in the Positive Peace Index(PPI)which measures resilience through the attitudes,institutions and structures of societies.These are the same factors that create c

157、apacity and adaptability.Countries that rank higher in PPI have stronger institutions and coping mechanisms,which means they are better prepared to deal with ecological threats.Conversely,countries with low levels of Positive Peace lack resilience,meaning that even moderate shocks may lead to confli

158、ct or disorderly re-arrangements in the structure of the economy and political system.Positive Peace is strongly correlated with higher levels of food security,water security and the ability to manage natural disasters.This is because countries with stronger socio-economic development are better org

159、anised,have more resources and higher social cohesion.They also have more effective disaster response FIGURE 1.4Calculating countries at risk of ecological threatsSource:IEPThe countries with the lowest levels of resilience.The countries with the highest catastrophic threats.30 countries overlap1.1

160、billion people at severe riskIEP estimates there are 1.1 billion people living in countries where societal resilience is unlikely to be sufficient to withstand the impact of their ecological threats.Country Hotspotsmechanisms,and their governance systems are more transparent,responsive,and adaptable

161、.IEPs hotspot analysis compares the countries and areas facing at least one severe threat with the PPI.A hotspot country is defined as one that is ranked in the bottom 30 countries on the PPI,and also facing at least one severe ecological threat.The hotspot countries are shown in the map in Figure 1

162、.4,and listed in detail in Box 1.3.ECOLOGICAL THREAT REPORT 2023|15RESULTS AND TRENDS|Section 1BOX 1.3 Hotspot Countries,2023The following countries are classified as hotspot countries.This means they face at least one severe ecological threat and are ranked amongst the 30 countries with the worst l

163、evels of Positive Peace.BurundiCameroonUgandaNigeriaDemocratic Republic of the CongoCentral African RepublicZimbabweNorth KoreaGuineaChadHaitiSyriaNigerEquatorial GuineaIraqTajikistanRepublic of the CongoEritreaLibyaVenezuelaSomaliaEthiopiaMaliYemenSouth SudanGuinea-BissauMauritaniaAfghanistanSudanM

164、yanmarBy 2050,sub-Saharan Africas population is predicted to rise to 2.2 billion,an increase of over 60 per cent,which will dramatically increase pressure on existing food and water supplies.KEY FINDINGS2.2 billion2.8 billionIEP estimates that by 2050,2.8 billion people will reside in countries faci

165、ng severe ecological threats,compared to 1.8 billion in 2023.Most of the increase will be in sub-Saharan Africa.45%Forty-five per cent of the countries covered in the ETR face either high or severe threat level.Section 1|RESULTS AND TRENDS 16|ECOLOGICAL THREAT REPORT 2023Ecological hotspots tend to

166、be clustered in certain geographical areas.Figure 1.6 displays the number of countries identified as a hotspot by region.At 19 countries,sub-Saharan Africa has the highest number of countries of any region,followed by MENA with five countries.This clustering is significant because ecological and hum

167、anitarian crises often spill over across international borders.This spillover effect occurs through population flows,cross-border conflict,and logistic links between countries.The relationship between peacefulness,food insecurity,water scarcity and population growth is complex.If multiple ecological

168、 threats occur simultaneously,they can converge and mutually reinforce,causing a multiplier effect.For example,a country may be exposed to water stress and dedicate resources to addressing this threat.However,the combination of water stress and a rapidly growing population may exacerbate food insecu

169、rity,causing other effects,such as higher inflation,unplanned migration or increases in crime.Multiple stressors are also more likely to lead to negative societal outcomes such as political instability,social unrest and violent conflict.In turn,this may cause more damage to physical infrastructure a

170、nd further deplete already scarce resources,thus creating further food insecurity and water stress.The interplay between ecological threats and socio-economic dynamics may lead a country into a vicious cycle of progressively greater adversity.FIGURE 1.5ETR hotspots,202330 countries have subnational

171、areas that are identified as combining a severe level of ecological threat with extremely low societal resilience as measured by the PPI.Source:IEP CalculationsCOMBINING CATASTROPHIC THREATS AND LOW LEVELS OF RESILIENCENATIONAL HOTSPOTS HotspotsECOLOGICAL THREAT REPORT 2023|17RESULTS AND TRENDS|Sect

172、ion 1FIGURE 1.6Number of hotspot countries by region,2023Sub-Saharan Africa has the highest number of countries identified as hotspots.NUMBER OF COUNTRIES51015200sub-Saharan AfricaMENASouthAmerica Central America and the Caribbean Asia-PacificRussia and Eurasia South Asia Source:IEP CalculationsSect

173、ion 1|RESULTS AND TRENDS 18|ECOLOGICAL THREAT REPORT 2023There are four sub-national areas that face severe threats in all domains and are all located in two sub-Saharan African countries,Ethiopia and Niger.These are the areas that need the most urgent attention,with both suffering from high levels

174、of conflict(refer to Table 1.2).Almost 69 million people living in these areas are exposed to a severe level of water scarcity,food insecurity,demographic pressure,and natural disaster threat.HOTSPOTS:SHOCKS AND RESILIENCE Shocks can be classified as sudden substantial inputs into a system.If large

175、enough,they will overwhelm the internal structures of the system,causing them to change or even collapse.The resulting system from the shock may be a better system or worse depending on the resilience of the system and the strength of the shock.The COVID-19 pandemic,for instance,was a shock to socie

176、ty because a new input contagion affected how individuals,groups,governments,and businesses operated.This affected the economic,political and health systems of countries.Some shocks can be internally generated and are the result of a societal systems own dynamics.These are known as endogenous shocks

177、.Examples of endogenous shocks are political revolutions,civil unrest or economic crises.Exogenous shocks have causes and TABLE 1.2Subnational areas facing severe ecological threat in all domainsCountryRegionSub-national AreasLocationDescription2023 PopulationEthiopiasub-Saharan AfricaOromia Central

178、Largest region in Ethiopia by population and area.48,258,195Nigersub-Saharan AfricaMaradiSouthMost populous region in Niger.7,106,950Nigersub-Saharan AfricaZinderSouthSecond most populous region in Niger.6,673,394Ethiopiasub-Saharan AfricaSomaliEastSecond largest region in Ethiopia by area.6,532,213

179、Source:IEPFigure 1.7 displays the vicious cycle for changes in resource scarcity and peacefulness.FIGURE 1.7The vicious cycle of increasing resource scarcityIncreased stress on resources can lead to deteriorations in peacefulness in a vicious cycle.Source:IEPResource scarcityBreakdown of capacity to

180、 deal with ecological threatsFewer resources per personDeteriorating peacefulnessIncreasing political instability,social unrest and violent conflicttriggers that lie outside the social system,such as some types of natural disasters,invasions or pandemics.Shocks are often amplified by stressors facto

181、rs not necessarily related to the shock itself,but which reduce the ability of a social system to cope and recover.Resilience is a social systems ability to minimise the effect of a shock and recover in its aftermath.When faced with a shock,systems will first attempt to limit the direct impact on th

182、eir sub-systems.This is known as coping capacity and has been defined by the UN as“the ability of people,organizations and systems,using available skills and resources,to manage adverse conditions,risk or disasters.”18 High levels of resilience mean national systems have superior coping capacity in

183、terms of physical infrastructure,regulatory frameworks,economic strength and diversification,emergency preparedness and response systems.In addition,they also have superior capacity to rebuild their socio-economic systems in the aftermath of the shocks.For small to moderate shocks,the social system

184、will limit the negative repercussions on the population and the economy,while the recovery will lead to a return to pre-shock levels of wellbeing.However,if the shock is severe enough,a system may reconfigure its internal structure.This may mean that the resulting structure is less stable and contai

185、ns less capacity.This can mean that the next shock will have a more destabilising impact on the system,thereby causing a vicious cycle where a weakened societal system creates a higher likelihood of future shocks.The concept of resilience is illustrated in Figure 1.8.In contrast,a highly resilient s

186、ystem struck by a shock can reconfigure to become a more resilient system and more capable of dealing with future shocks.The 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake(GEJE)and tsunami set off a chain of direct and indirect impacts felt at the societal and economic level in Japan but also at the international

187、 level,affecting global supply chains.While the GEJE was undoubtedly ruinous,losses were reduced due to Japans disaster risk management strategies,such as earthquake warning systems.19 Since 2011,Japan has reconfigured its internal structure to strengthen its resilience to low probability,high impac

188、t threats by creating resilience policies that emphasize the holistic and continuous approach to resilience that should be engaged with even during times of stability.20 Positive Peace is an effective predictor of socio-economic resilience for countries and regions,as discussed in previous IEP resea

189、rch.This is because societies that operate with high levels of Positive Peace tend to:ECOLOGICAL THREAT REPORT 2023|19RESULTS AND TRENDS|Section 1 be more effective in protecting lives and livelihoods from the impact of natural disasters;recover more rapidly from economic crises;adjust more easily a

190、nd quickly to technological,business and social disruption;and promote the peaceful resolution of grievances and disputes between citizens and groups.These shocks occur with broadly the same frequency across countries with all levels of peace.However,countries with very low levels of Positive Peace

191、have a fatality rate seven times higher than those with very high levels of Positive Peace.This happens because the Pillars of Positive Peace work in systemic ways to enhance a countrys coping capacity.Sound Business Environment guarantees enough resources and infrastructure assets to treat people a

192、ffected by the disaster and repair physical damage.Equitable Distribution of Resources means that all individuals,groups and demographics have access to protective infrastructure,equipment and services.A Well-Functioning Government allocates resources efficiently and transparently to groups or areas

193、 where they are most needed,and so on.A socio-economic system comprises multiple sub-systems.These can be geographic,such as households,cities or areas,or notional such as a nations education system or its judiciary.When it first manifests,a shock may impact only some of a nations sub-systems direct

194、ly.In time,however,the interconnectivity between sub-systems re-transmits the ramifications of the shock throughout the nation.This pattern is illustrated in Figure 1.9.The Japanese tsunami of 2011 offers one example of a shock transmission through sub-systems.In its direct impact,the disaster cause

195、d death and destruction in the north-eastern coast of the country.Subsequently,damaged nuclear power plants in the FIGURE 1.9The direct and indirect impact of system shocksSource:IEPSocial system made up of interconnected sub-systemsA shock impacts a number of sub-systemsImpact cascades through syst

196、emShockIndirectImpactsA shock impacts system components in different ways.After the initial impact,the shock cascades through the system.FIGURE 1.8Shocks and resilienceResilience is the ability to protect the population by limiting the primary impacts of a shock and restoring the system,sometimes to

197、 higher levels of wellbeing.Source:IEPEcologicalThreatResilienceOutcomeCopingCapacityAbility toRecoverPreservesOld Internal StructureReconfigures Internal Structurelevel of wellbeing;new structure and normsPre-shock level of wellbeing;same structure and normsLimits Direct ImpactLimits Direct ImpactC

198、atastrophicLow IntensitySection 1|RESULTS AND TRENDS 20|ECOLOGICAL THREAT REPORT 2023region contaminated crops and water supplies with radiation,affecting health and food production sub-systems in surrounding areas.22Another example is the 2010 earthquake in Haiti,which caused severe loss of life an

199、d widespread destruction.After the immediate impact,the country experienced a breakdown of its law-and-order infrastructure contributing to civil unrest and looting.23Thus,the more severe threats a country faces,coupled with weak resilience,the more fragile a country will likely be.ECOLOGICAL THREAT

200、 AND THE GREEN TRANSITIONEfforts to keep global temperatures below a 1.5-degree Celsius increase require a massive shift from fossil fuels to zero carbon emissions energy sources.This shift is essential for global emission goals to be reached but could be challenging for countries that are heavily d

201、ependent on fossil fuel revenues.Presently,40 countries rely heavily on these revenues.The United Nations Development Programme believes these nations could face losses of over 60 per cent of their current GDP between 2023-2040 under a net-zero 2050 scenario,a loss of rents that is equivalent to ove

202、r 120 per cent of current GDP.24 This potential loss,coupled with limited opportunities for economic diversification and ecological threats,might lead to significant social and economic disruptions.Figure 1.10 shows the relationship between the ETR,high oil dependence,and GDP per capita,which is a p

203、roxy for low capacity to transition away from oil dependency.Most countries that are dependent on fossil fuel rents also have low GDP per capita,and the majority of these countries face high or severe levels of ecological threat.Fossil fuels account for more than 40 per cent of GDP in Iraq and Timor

204、-Leste.They both have low GDP per capita and face at least one high to severe-level ecological threat,which will make shifting away from this dependency very difficult.This transition trap occurs across the globe,with some countries in the Americas,Africa,MENA,South Asia,and Asia-Pacific among the m

205、ost dependent and ecologically threatened.Some,like South Sudan and Libya,are already unstable.Others,like Angola,Iran,Azerbaijan,and Chad have histories of tension and conflict.Economic downturns could spark more issues.All of these states face at least one high level ecological threat,indicating t

206、hat theyre already feeling environmental pressures.As climate change worsens,these threats will only grow,and their ability to cope might be limited.By contrast,countries have the capacity to become energy superpowers either through the direct production and transmission of zero emissions electricit

207、y or via extraction of critical minerals and resources required to build the green energy transition infrastructure.This economic boom,in theory,presents an opportunity for countries that possess increasingly vital minerals including nickel,cobalt,lithium and copper,the value of which is projected t

208、o soar in the following decades.The presence of particularly rare minerals or availability of reserves in a small number of states has the potential to set off new scrambles for resources and associated geopolitical competition.The Democratic Republic of Congo,for example,produces 70 per cent of the

209、 worlds cobalt,a critical mineral for current electric battery storage technology that is considered key to the electrification of vehicles.25 As the fifth least peaceful country in the 2023 Global Peace Index,and a country that has faced ongoing conflict over existing resources of critical minerals

210、,there are significant questions as to whether the DRC can avoid future resource curses.FIGURE 1.10Fossil fuel rents(%of GDP)vs GDP per capita and ETR level Almost every country with low GDP per capita and high fossil fuel rents as a%of GDP faces at least a medium level of ecological threat.Source:W

211、orld Bank;IEP CalculationsVery LowEcological Threat LevelLowMediumHighSevereGDP PER CAPITA(USD,THOUSANDS)FOSSIL FULE RENTS(%GDP)Timor-LesteLibyaIraqRepublic of the CongoEquatorial GuineaAngolaIranAzerbaijanGabonCabo VerdeKazakhstanChadSouth Sudan0204060403020100ECOLOGICAL THREAT REPORT 2023|21ECOLOG

212、ICAL THREATS|Section 2 Food Insecurity remains a major issue globally.The Global Food Price Index is currently 33 per cent higher than in 2016,after successive increases of 35 per cent following COVID,and then a further 18 per cent following the Russian invasion of Ukraine.42 countries face severe f

213、ood insecurity.Surveys from these countries show that more than 65 per cent of the population have been unable to afford food for their family at some point in the past year.More than one billion people in sub-Saharan Africa live with high or severe levels of food insecurity.This number is expected

214、to increase to almost two billion by 2050.35 of the 52 countries and territories in sub-Saharan Africa suffer from extreme food insecurity.81 per cent of people suffering from extreme food insecurity globally live in sub-Saharan Africa.In sub-Saharan Africa 62 per cent of the population live in area

215、s with severe levels of food insecurity.Food insecurity is more likely to occur in areas with small monoculture farms that depend on the sale of cash crops.Water risk is a key driver of conflict,with water-related violent incidents exhibiting a threefold increase on average since 2000.Globally,there

216、 are 46 countries where the level of water risk is severe,and a further 31 countries where the level of water risk is high.This is where more than 20 per cent of the population does not have access to clean drinking water.Two billion people live in areas without access to safe drinking water.The num

217、ber of countries using more than 80 per cent of their water supply for irrigation,livestock,industry,and domestic purposes has risen from 17 in 2019 to 25 in 2023.Most of these countries are located in sub-Saharan Africa and MENA.By 2040,MENA is projected to have the same water stress as sub-Saharan

218、 Africa.Water scarcity is expected to worsen in numerous countries in the Russia and Eurasia region by 2040.This could have a significant impact on agriculture in the region.Over 1.8 billion people live in subnational areas at severe risk from natural disasters,there is a strong chance that over fiv

219、e per cent of the population will be impacted by a devastating natural hazard.When countries lack resilience,natural hazards,such as earthquakes or floods,are more likely to become natural disasters.There are 44 countries with both a high risk of natural disasters,and low resilience.These countries

220、are home to more than four billion people.KEY FINDINGSEcological Threats2Section 2|ECOLOGICAL THREATS 22|ECOLOGICAL THREAT REPORT 2023 Thirty-five per cent of total funding from the UN Central Emergency Response Fund(CERF)was dedicated to aiding in the aftermath of natural disasters in 2022,compared

221、 to just 17 per cent a decade ago.CERF pledged almost US$200 million to aid 21 countries following a natural disaster in the first seven months of 2023,surpassing the yearly total for eight of the past ten years.Demographic pressure poses a significant ecological threat in many regions of the world.

222、Over 40 per cent of the subnational areas in the 2023 ETR are expected to record population growth of at least 20 per cent between now and 2050.The bulk of this population increase is likely to occur in countries with low levels of peacefulness.Nearly half the population of the world is projected to

223、 be living in countries with very low levels of peacefulness,as measured by the GPI,by 2050.The 40 least peaceful countries will have an additional 1.3 billion people by 2050,at which point they will account for just under half of the total world population.Most countries in the world are transition

224、ing to stable or contractionary population structures,as the number of young people relative to the number of old people continues to decline.Sub-Saharan Africa is still expected to increase its population by just under 62 per cent by 2050,from 1.3 billion to 2.2 billion people.Total youth populatio

225、n growth in sub-Saharan Africa is so high that the number of people aged 15 or under in the region is projected to be higher than the entire population of Europe by 2050.ECOLOGICAL THREAT REPORT 2023|23ECOLOGICAL THREATS|Section 2 Food InsecurityThis section analyses global and local patterns of foo

226、d insecurity and their relationship to conflict and environmental shocks.Figure 2.1 shows the distribution of food insecurity at the subnational level across the world.The ETR identifies 42 countries as facing severe food insecurity.Surveys from these countries show that more than 65 per cent of the

227、 population have been unable to afford food for their family at some point in the past year.1 When large proportions of a countrys population lack food security,economic development and societal cohesion are adversely affected.2 Sudden shocks not only disrupt the accessibility of food,they can also

228、create knock-on effects that result in heightened political instability,increase of violence,more civil unrest,large levels of forced migration and a higher likelihood of civil conflict.Food shortages and water scarcity are interrelated,with a lack of water often leading to food shortages.To be food

229、 secure,people must have access to sufficient nutritional food that meets their basic preferences,dietary needs,and enough food to achieve an active and healthy life.Within the context of the ETR,food security comprises two elements:availability and accessibility.Food availability requires that a su

230、fficient amount of food that is of appropriate quality be supplied,whether through domestic production,imports or aid.Food accessibility requires that legal,political,economic and social arrangements provide people with the ability to acquire food.If either of these elements is lacking,food security

231、 is compromised.FOOD INSECURITY BY REGIONThere is significant variation in food insecurity by region,as shown in Figure 2.2.In sub-Saharan Africa,IEP estimates that 62 per cent of the population live in areas with severe levels of food insecurity.FIGURE 2.1Subnational food insecurity domain scores,2

232、023Source:UNDESALowMediumHighSevereVery LowVALUESource:WPP;IEP CalculationsMILLIONS2050202305001,0001,500Central America and The Caribbean South AsiaMENAsub-Saharan Africa Asia-PacificFIGURE 2.2Projected population living in extreme food insecurity by region,2023 and 2050By 2050,1.4 billion people a

233、re projected to be living in severe food insecure areas of sub-Saharan Africa.Section 2|ECOLOGICAL THREATS 24|ECOLOGICAL THREAT REPORT 2023The MENA region has the second highest number of people living with extreme food insecurity,equal to 15 per cent of the total population of the region or 87 mill

234、ion people.Most of these people live in either Sudan or Yemen;both countries are affected by conflict.The population in the affected areas in MENA is projected to grow by over 128 million by 2050.South Asia is the region with the third largest number of people living in extreme food insecurity.Almos

235、t nine per cent of the regions population live in subnational areas with extreme food insecurity,or 175 million people in total.The population of these areas is expected to reach 212 million by 2050.Most of those affected live in western India or Afghanistan.FOOD INSECURITY AND GLOBAL STABILITYMany

236、countries rely on food imports for food security,which means they depend heavily on international trade routes and supply chains.As such,major international events can impact the food security of many nations.Figure 2.3 shows the trend of the FAO Food Price Index for the period between 1992 and 2023

237、,along with major global events over the period.After the 2007 Global Financial Crisis,food prices rose by up to 40 per cent in the following 12 months.In the two years following the WHOs declaration of the COVID-19 pandemic,global food prices rose by 35 per cent.In the month after the Russian invas

238、ion of Ukraine,the Food Price Index rose by another 18 per cent,and as of July 2023 it remains 25 per cent higher than pre-pandemic levels.3FIGURE 2.3Food Price Indices increase in times of international crisis.Source:FAO;IEP Calculations 1501309070110501992199720022007201220172022Global Financial C

239、risisCOVID-19 Pandemic Russia-Ukraine WarMonthly Food Price Indices(20142016=100),19922023 FOOD PRICE INDEX(20142016=100)ECOLOGICAL THREAT REPORT 2023|25ECOLOGICAL THREATS|Section 2 FOCUS AREA:FOOD INSECURITY AND LOCAL LIVELIHOODSFood insecurity is caused by many factors including variability of sea

240、sonal rains,poverty,lack of adequate infrastructure to harvest water,poor governance,lack of security and ongoing conflict.Food insecurity is rare in highly economically developed countries with effective institutions.Most of the sub-Saharan African region experiences high levels of food insecurity,

241、with seasonal and changing ecological conditions exacerbated by ongoing conflict.Food insecurity can also contribute to ongoing conflict,acting as both a cause and effect of violence in the region.The relationship between conflict and food insecurity is complex,with potential pathways shaped by a ra

242、nge of factors in a dynamic system.To help break down this complexity,Figure 2.4 depicts some of the main relationships,including the impact of environmental shocks like extreme weather and natural hazards.Food insecurity can be a potential impact of conflict when damage to agricultural land and tra

243、nsport links reduce output and distribution.On the other hand,it can also be a contributing cause of conflict.Food insecurity associated with extreme weather events can exacerbate conflict by increasing the willingness of local populations to fight for control of land and resources.4 Whether and how

244、 these effects materialise depends on the effectiveness of the governing institutions,strength of the infrastructure and a range of other factors.A more detailed breakdown of the relationship between food insecurity and conflict is presented in Section 3 of this report.Cameroon is a compelling case

245、study for food insecurity,as it exhibits all the major climatic conditions on the African continent and contains varying levels of both ecological threat and ongoing conflict at a subnational level.The consequences of these threats for resident populations depend upon the socioeconomic characteristi

246、cs of the local areas.Patterns of food insecurity in Cameroon demonstrate the types of local economies that are most affected by the interaction of ecological threat and conflict in sub-Saharan Africa.FIGURE 2.4Relationship between food insecurity and conflict Source:IEPReduced outputInflation&reduc

247、ed trade/sales incomeFood insecurityConflictCompetition for land&resourcesDamage to transport links&infrastructureDamage to arable land&pasturesReduced access to marketsNatural hazardsFood insecurity can be a potential factor or contributing cause of conflict.FIGURE 2.5Location and ecological zones

248、of CameroonSource:FAOThe territory of Cameroon includes all the major climatic zones of the African continent.EquatorialSemi-AridHumidAridSub-HumidTropical Highland HumidTropical Highland Sub-HumidSection 2|ECOLOGICAL THREATS 26|ECOLOGICAL THREAT REPORT 2023As shown in Figure 2.5,Cameroon straddles

249、West and Central Africa.Cameroon encompasses all the key climatic zones found in Africa,featuring a mix of savannahs,mountains,forests,deserts,and transitional regions.This diverse landscape allows for different farming practices across the country.Being close to cities and international markets als

250、o affects the occupations of the local population.These areas,with their unique climate and economy,are livelihood zones where people have similar ways to earn and face similar food insecurity risks.5 Most livelihood zones in Cameroon are based on agropastoral farming systems,where the main sources

251、of household income include the sale of both livestock and crops.Cattle farming is most common in the semi-arid plains and high plateaus,while small animal stocks,such as poultry,sheep and goats are more common in forested areas.6 The main crop staples vary based on local geographies and access to w

252、ater,but maize is the most common grain,an important export,and the primary source of animal feed.Figure 2.6 maps maize-growing livelihood zones against the administrative areas with lower or higher levels of food insecurity.Most of the areas with lower levels of food insecurity are also zones where

253、 maize is locally produced.This is particularly true in the humid areas of the south where there are two annual growing seasons for grains,so grains are less susceptible to variations in rainfall patterns.In these parts of Cameroon,most livelihood zones with low maize production experience higher le

254、vels of food insecurity.In the central and northern parts of the country,there are several regions that experience high levels of food insecurity despite local production of maize and alternative staples such as sorghum.Even though staple food production is relatively high in these areas,household l

255、ivelihoods are directly or indirectly affected by ongoing conflict.The far northern region,bordering Nigeria,experiences attacks by the Nigerian-based Islamist militant group Boko Haram and its splinter organisation Islamic State West Africa(ISWA).Areas in the countrys west are affected by conflicts

256、 involving Anglophone Ambazonian separatist groups in the aftermath of long-term territorial disputes with Nigeria.These conflicts are not driven by food insecurity,but rather they contribute to it by damaging agricultural land and disrupting food harvesting and distribution.The central and eastern

257、regions bordering the Central African Republic have relatively lower levels of conflict,but they are indirectly affected because they have received a high number of displaced persons from conflicts across the border.The increase in population contributes to food insecurity by putting pressure on foo

258、d prices and compounding the effect of late rains on the single growing season in this part of the country.7 The livelihood zones most affected by food insecurity are more reliant on cross-border trade and cash crops such as coffee and cocoa as a source of income.Figure 2.7 maps cross-border trading

259、 zones,and livelihood zones that rely on the sale of cash crops against food insecurity levels.Areas dependent on cash crops are particularly vulnerable to food insecurity.In Cameroon,95 per cent of cocoa farms are smallholdings with limited adaptive technology and low crop diversity,and in cocoa-pr

260、oducing areas 90 per cent of households are dependent upon the crop as a source of income.This means that extreme weather events,pests and disease have significant impacts on household livelihoods.The conflict-affected border zones in the north and west of Cameroon are also the parts of the country

261、where households are most reliant on cross-border trade.The presence of conflict affects trade by reducing the availability of agricultural products.It also means that trading routes become more dangerous and reducing mass transport and roads are less likely to be maintained.The resulting inflationa

262、ry pressures on staples and reduced income from cash crops decreases household purchasing power,contributing to food insecurity.9 Conflict-related economic FIGURE 2.6Maize production,food insecurity and conflict in Cameroon,2022 Source:FEWS NET;ACLED;IEPThe areas of Cameroon least affected by food i

263、nsecurity are maize-growing livelihood zones.Maize productionFood insecurity10Conflict fatalities100200FIGURE 2.7Food insecurity,trade,and cash crops in CameroonSource:FEWS NET;IEP The areas of Cameroon most affected by food insecurity are more reliant on cross-border trade and cash crops.Cash crops

264、Food insecurityCross-border tradeECOLOGICAL THREAT REPORT 2023|27ECOLOGICAL THREATS|Section 2 Water Riskinstability also affects food insecurity in the urban livelihood zones of Yaound,the capital,and Douala,the main port.Figure 2.8 shows that in the southern region,which experiences two wet seasons

265、,there are notable low levels of conflict and violent events involving farmer or pastoralist groups.The concentration of agro-pastoral conflict in zones with one wet season can be related to the longer periods between rainfall.When the rains fail,droughts become more severe,leading to conflict over

266、resources.High population growth in Cameroon is another contributing factor,with the most stressed regions being the conflict-affected regions of the north.The level of cultivation is also lower in the forested south and there are fewer large livestock like cattle that can damage cropland,reducing t

267、he likelihood of tensions between farmers and pastoralists.10 Almost all agro-pastoral conflict occurs in areas that are also affected by terrorist or separatist violence.The presence of other types of violence,including terrorism,can intensify conflict between farmers and herders.Violence limits ac

268、cess to land and water sources,forcing pastoralists to encroach on more distant farming communities.11 Outside of the conflict-affected regions of the north and west,there is little agro-pastoral conflict in areas that experience either one or two wet seasons.FIGURE 2.9Subnational water risk domain

269、scores,2023Source:World Resources Institute23451VALUEFIGURE 2.8Rainfall zones and conflict events by type,20182022Source:FEWS NET;ACLED;IEPOutside of the conflict-affected regions of the north and west,there are similar levels of conflict in areas which experience either one or two wet seasons.Two w

270、et seasonsOne wet seasonConflict typeUnconfirmed/otherTerroristAgro-pastoralSeparatistSection 2|ECOLOGICAL THREATS 28|ECOLOGICAL THREAT REPORT 2023Water risk is one of the most significant ecological threats the world is currently facing.Two billion people globally live in areas that lack access to

271、safe drinking water while 3.6 billion lack access to safe sanitation.12 Water stress impedes economic development and food production,which further compromises the health and well-being of the population.It can also lead to social tension,conflict and displacement.In the ETR,water risk is measured b

272、y looking at the percentage of the population of the subnational areas that has access to clean drinking water.Figure 2.9 shows the distribution of water risk globally at the subnational level.There are 46 countries where the level of water risk is severe,and a further 31 countries where the level o

273、f water risk is high.Water risk has the greatest impact in sub-Saharan Africa,South Asia,and Latin America.While most sub-Saharan countries face extreme water stress,some also contend with internal water disparities.For example,in South Africa,eight of the nine provinces suffer from high or severe w

274、ater risk,as described in Box 2.1.However,the Gauteng province,home to both the nations capital,Pretoria and its largest city,Johannesburg,has low levels of water risk.In 2019,Cape Town faced the prospect of its residents having no access to water.In order to conserve freshwater for critical service

275、s,the taps were to be switched off on Day Zero,as the six city dams reached a storage level of 13.5 per cent.Thankfully,rains arrived just prior to the shutdown.However,it remains a reminder of Cape Towns water insecurity.Cape Towns predicament rose out of a prolonged drought.Additionally,the citys

276、water infrastructure had not been maintained and was in poor condition.Without efficient policies,the predicament is likely to occur again.BOX 2.1Cape Town and Day Zero13FIGURE 2.10Number of countries with municipalities projected to be severely water stressed by 2040 By 2040,MENA is projected to ha

277、ve the same level of water stress as sub-Saharan Africa.Source:WRI;IEP Calculations0510EuropeNorth AmericaCentral America and the CaribbeanRussia and EurasiaSouth AmericaMENAAsia-PacificSouth Asiasub-Saharan AfricaNumber of countries with municipalities that are projected to have severe increases in

278、 water stress by 2040Water stress is caused by both physical and economic factors.Physical scarcity arises when ecological conditions limit water availability,posing challenges in meeting demands for agriculture,household use and industry.This shortage often stems from insufficient rainfall,seasonal

279、 variability in rainfall or occurrences of floods and droughts.In contrast,economic scarcity emerges due to insufficient water management and infrastructure,despite potentially available water resources.This category is influenced by factors such as excessive groundwater extraction,outdated distribu

280、tion systems and population growth surpassing available water management capacity.18The threat posed by water risk is expected to keep rising over the next quarter of a century.According to estimates by the World Resources Institute,25 countries currently utilise over 80 per cent of their renewable

281、water supply to cater irrigation,livestock,industry and domestic needs,compared to 17 countries just three years earlier.14 Most of these countries are in sub-Saharan Africa or the MENA region.Figure 2.10 shows that these two regions will have the highest number of subnational areas facing severe wa

282、ter stress by 2040.Europe is the region with the next highest level of projected exposure.In Europe,approximately 75 per cent of total water extraction originates from rivers and reservoirs,while the remaining 25 per cent is derived from groundwater sources.15 The region is experiencing a growing pr

283、evalence of droughts and water scarcity,affecting roughly 20 per cent of its land area and impacting 30 per cent of its population annually.16 Southern and south-western European countries,such as Spain,Portugal and Italy,face particularly concerning trends.Here,water stress is driven by the demands

284、 of agriculture,public water supply and tourism,with pronounced peaks during the summer season.These challenges are exacerbated by excessive groundwater extraction,as intensified droughts force deeper water sourcing,especially in agriculture,industry and urban settings,to counter reduced rainfall an

285、d rising temperatures.Investments in water-use efficiency are anticipated to stabilise water usage in wealthier countries in Europe and North America.However,the water resources entwined within global trade,especially originating from lower-middle-income countries to their high-income counterparts,s

286、tand as a substantial factor in the increasing water stress experienced by low and lower-middle-income nations.17ECOLOGICAL THREAT REPORT 2023|29ECOLOGICAL THREATS|Section 2 FIGURE 2.11Water stress ETR domain for Russia and EurasiaEight out of twelve countries in the region currently face high or ve

287、ry high level of water risk.Source:IEPFOCUS AREA:WATER STRESS IN RUSSIA AND EURASIAAzerbaijan,Moldova and Tajikistan face the highest levels of water risk in the region.Every subnational area in Tajikistan is currently facing severe water risk.Almost half of the population does not have access to a

288、safely managed water supply,the lowest level of any country in Central Asia.23 Tajikistan has a history of internal instability.It fell into civil war between 19921995,shortly after gaining independence.Initially triggered by regional groups from the Garm and Gorno-Badakhshan areas rebelling against

289、 the newly-formed government under President Rahmon Nabiyev,the conflict led to an estimated 50,000 to 100,000 casualties and displaced between 600,000 and one million individuals,both internally and into Afghanistan.24 Water scarcity is projected to increase in Tajikistan and its neighbouring count

290、ries in central Asia:the Kyrgyz Republic,Uzbekistan,and Kazakhstan.These countries heavily rely on agriculture,which is a significant contributor to their GDP.For instance,agriculture accounted for 12 per cent of Kyrgyzstans GDP in 2022,five per cent in Kazakhstan,24 per cent in Uzbekistan,and 22 pe

291、r cent in Tajikistan.25 As shown in Figure 2.12,approximately 90 per cent of water consumption in these countries is allocated for agricultural purposes.Very HighHighMediumLowWater Stress ETRFIGURE 2.12Water consumption by sector,Russia and Eurasia Region,2019 Over 90%of water consumption in Turkmen

292、istan,Azerbaijan,Uzbekistan and the Kyrgyz Republic is related to agriculture.Source:World Bank;IEP Calculations OtherHouseholdIndustryAgriculture5075100025%SHARETurkmenistanKyrgystanUzbekistanAzerbaijanArmeniaTajikistanKazakhstanUkraineGeorgiaBelarusRussiaMoldovaSection 2|ECOLOGICAL THREATS 30|ECOL

293、OGICAL THREAT REPORT 2023The connection between water,energy and agriculture in the region is a major concern.This involves managing water,setting up agreements and working together to share water fairly.A clear example of these problems is the Aral Sea.It used to be the fourth-largest lake in the w

294、orld,but since the 1960s,it has been drying up and becoming saltier.This happened mainly because water that should have gone to the Aral Sea was diverted for farming in Kazakhstan,Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan instead.26 The surge in water intensive cotton production has further heightened water deman

295、d.As a result,the Aral sea shrunk by 65 per cent between 1960 and 2022.27 Access to water in the region is distributed along the banks of the two main rivers,the Amu Darya and the Syr Darya.Originating in the mountainous regions of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan,these rivers travel through Kazakhstan,Tur

296、kmenistan and Uzbekistan before reaching the Aral Sea.In Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan,substantial water reserves are stored in mountain glaciers.In contrast,Kazakhstan,Turkmenistan,and Uzbekistan possess vast oil and gas deposits.28 There are several rivers in Turkmenistan,but most flow in from neighbo

297、uring countries.In Kazakhstan,surface water resources are characterised by notable disparities,marked by significant seasonal fluctuations.29 Within the region,upstream nations Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan prioritise water utilisation for hydropower generation through their hydropower plants.In contras

298、t,downstream countries Kazakhstan,Turkmenistan,and Uzbekistan primarily allocate water resources for agricultural endeavours,encompassing food Natural DisastersFIGURE 2.13Natural disasters domain scores at the subnational level,2023 ETRSource:IEP CalculationsLowMediumHighSevereVery LowVALUEand cotto

299、n production.30 The downstream nations are seeking more water to sustain their expanding agricultural sectors and growing populations,whereas the upstream countries aim to exert greater control over their resources.They aspire to harness more water for both electricity generation and agriculture.31

300、This dynamic and the pressure on water resources greatly increases the likelihood of water-related disputes,especially in the Ferghana region of Central Asia,where Tajikistan,Kyrgyzstan,and Uzbekistan share a common border alongside shared water bodies.32 This complexity is further compounded by the

301、 shared management of approximately 40 water channels by Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.In addition,Tajikistan predominantly relies on irrigation,with over 90 per cent of its agricultural land being irrigated rather than rainfed.33 An example of these tensions occurred in 2021 when a deadly border confli

302、ct between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan erupted due to a water dispute centred around control of a canal and pumping site along the Isfara River among local residents.This conflict resulted in at least 31 fatalities,numerous injuries,and the evacuation of 10,000 individuals.Subsequently,in September 20

303、22,another dispute escalated over roads,land and water resources,resulting in a death toll of 94 people and more than 100 injured.35 In the past decade alone there have been 150 disputes along the shared Kyrgyzstani-Tajikistani border,leading to casualties on both sides.36 A World Bank report releas

304、ed in 2021 estimated that water availability and crop productivity would generate climate migration hotspots in the region by 2050.37ECOLOGICAL THREAT REPORT 2023|31ECOLOGICAL THREATS|Section 2 Natural hazards are defined as extreme natural events that lead to more than ten people being killed or mo

305、re than 100 people being strongly affected.There are many kinds of natural hazards such as floods,storms,cyclones,earthquakes,and epidemics,and these events are not necessarily mutually exclusive.A severe storm or cyclone may in turn result in flooding,and so on.When a natural hazard has a very stro

306、ng negative impact on a society,it becomes a natural disaster.Natural hazards are defined as environmental events that have the potential to impact societies,for example,floods,earthquakes and wildfires.A natural disaster is the negative impact following the occurrence of a natural hazard,especially

307、 if a society is low in resilience.For example,a natural disaster may occur after a natural hazard such as a severe storm if the community impacted has no resources or capability to recover from the physical,environmental and economic damage caused by the storm.If a natural hazard affects more than

308、five per cent of the population it is considered a natural disaster in the ETR.BOX 2.2Natural hazards and natural disastersThe risk of natural disaster may be high even if an area has not had a recent experience of that kind of event.For example,areas in flood plains or situated along geological fau

309、lt lines may be at high risks from floods or earthquakes,even if it has been many years since a major event,and the risk of an event may even increase over time.Therefore,the natural disasters indicator in the ETR uses a probabilistic model to determine the risk of a natural disaster occurring.This

310、model calculates the likelihood of a natural hazard occurring that would severely impact more than five per cent of the population in a subnational region.If the chance of such an event is higher than the maximum threshold,then the risk is deemed severe.Figure 2.14 shows the distribution of natural

311、disaster risk by subnational area around the world.FIGURE 2.14Distribution of subnational scores on the natural disaster domain Eleven per cent of subnational areas globally face extremely high risk from natural disaster.Source:IEP Calculations4473721,956409410Extremely HighHighMediumLowExtremely Lo

312、wClusters of subnational areas in East Africa,Southern Africa,and Southeast Asia are at severe risk of natural disasters.In contrast,across most of Europe,the risk of natural disasters falls into the very low category,primarily due to their coping capacity and societal resilience.Figure 2.14 shows t

313、he distribution of scores on the Natural Disasters domain.Over 1.8 billion people live in subnational regions that have severe risk of natural disasters,recording the maximum score of five on the domain.On average,the risk of natural disasters is highest in South Asian and Asia-Pacific countries.Eur

314、opean countries are at the least risk of natural disasters,with all subnational areas in the region recording a less than 1.4 per cent chance of a natural disaster occurring in a single year.42 countries are facing extreme food insecurity.Surveys from these countries show that more than 65 per cent

315、of the population have been unable to afford food for their family at some point in the past year.KEY FINDINGS65%Globally,there are 46 countries where the level of water risk is severe,and a further 31 countries where the level of water risk is high.This is where more than 20 per cent of the populat

316、ion does not have access to clean drinking water.The number of countries using more than 80 per cent of their renewable water supply for irrigation,livestock,industry,and domestic purposes has risen from 17 in 2019 to 25 in 2023.80%Section 2|ECOLOGICAL THREATS 32|ECOLOGICAL THREAT REPORT 2023FIGURE

317、2.15The country disaster loopExtreme climate event hits low resilience countryLack of Social Protection System and Poor Resilience leads to extensive damageSociety cant repair the damage fast enough,which means it is ill-prepared for the next extreme natural hazard event,creating a disasterDISASTERS

318、 AND RESILIENCEIn July 2023,UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres cautioned that the era of global boiling had commenced.He highlighted that rising temperatures had already caused significant damage and urged leaders to take action to prevent further increases in the number of catastrophic disasters

319、.38 A disaster is a serious disruption of a society or system due to hazardous events interacting with exposure,vulnerability,societal resilience and capacity.Disasters result in environment,societal,and economic losses and impacts which may surpass the communitys coping capacity requiring external

320、assistance.39 Most often,disasters materialise following a significant natural hazard such as a storm,drought,flood or earthquake.However,disasters occur only when a lack of resilience allows systems to be overwhelmed following a major natural hazard.Figure 2.15 illustrates the country disaster loop

321、 following natural hazards.An example of this loop is seen in the aftermath of the 2010 earthquake in Haiti,which led to widespread devastation.The event triggered a downward spiral leading to social chaos and the breakdown of law and order.In contrast,Japan managed the aftermath of the 2011 tsunami

322、 and nuclear plant meltdown adeptly,containing the damage,addressing destruction and orchestrating an effective economic recovery.This divergence in immediate impact and subsequent consequences can be attributed to the substantial difference in resilience levels between the two nations.Haiti,ranked

323、146th on the Positive Peace Index,exhibited markedly low resilience,while Japan was among the top 20 Positive Peace countries globally.This exemplifies the role of Positive Peace as a measure of resilience,shielding populations from disasters worst effects and facilitating post-disaster socio-econom

324、ic restoration.Figure 2.16 shows the relationship between the Positive Peace Index,a measure of resilience and a countrys susceptibility to natural disasters.While most countries,irrespective of their resilience level,face a low risk of natural hazards,44 countries exhibit both high disaster risk an

325、d low resilience.This means that they are unlikely to be able to cope following an extreme event,creating the risk of a serious disaster.These countries are home to over four billion people.The full list of these countries is given in Appendix C.FIGURE 2.16Positive Peace Index score vs natural disas

326、ter score Of the 221 countries in the ETR,44 have both low levels of resilience and a high risk of natural disasters.Source:IEP CalculationsPOSITIVE PEACE INDEXNATURAL DISASTER RISK3211234554Low Risk/Low ResilienceHigh Risk/Low ResilienceHigh Risk/High ResilienceLow Risk/High ResilienceECOLOGICAL TH

327、REAT REPORT 2023|33ECOLOGICAL THREATS|Section 2 FOCUS AREA:DISASTER RELIEF FUNDINGThe rising impact of natural disasters can be seen by looking at the distribution of emergency relief from the UN Central Emergency Respond Fund(CERF).CERF funding can go towards relief from conflict and displacement i

328、ssues,health emergencies,natural hazards and various other types of disaster.Figure 2.17 shows the distribution of funding by emergency type since 2006.The percentage of CERF fundings over the last three years pledged for assistance following a natural disaster is at the highest level since 2006,whe

329、n the fund was established.It has increased from 17 per cent of total funding in 2013 to 35 per cent in 2022.Even during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020,the same proportion of funding was allocated to natural hazards and health emergencies,highlighting the significant threat to stability

330、 posed by natural disasters.CERF has approved applications for over US$196 million in the first seven months of 2023 to assist 21 countries following a natural disaster.This is higher than the total annual value for natural disaster funding for eight of the last ten years.The highest allocation of U

331、S$40 million was allotted to Syria to provide aid following the 7.8 magnitude earthquake of February 2023.40 Sub-Saharan African nations have received the largest share of CERF natural disaster funding every year since the organisations establishment in 2006.Between January and July 2023,almost US$1

332、07 million was allotted to sub-Saharan African countries,with most of the funding directed to drought relief in Ethiopia and Somalia.Sub-Saharan Africa is also the region with the lowest level of Positive Peace,with Somalia recording one of the lowest levels of Positive Peace globally.Europe has als

333、o experienced an extreme level of drought in the last year,with many parts of the western Mediterranean seeing persistently low rainfall and exceptionally high temperatures for more than a year.41 Despite this,no European country has been allotted any financial assistance from CERF to aid in drought relief.Europe also records the second highest level of Positive Peace of any region in the world,hi