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1、Semiconductor PracticeNew silicon carbide prospects emerge as market adapts to EV expansionRising electric-vehicle adoption is boosting demand for crucial silicon carbide power electronics components.How can semiconductor players,automotive OEMs,and others create value amid disruption?October 2023Th

2、is article is a collaborative effort by Albert Brothers,Ondrej Burkacky,Julia Dragon,Jo Kakarwada,Abhijit Mahindroo,Jwalit Patel,and Anupama Suryanarayanan,representing views from McKinseys Semiconductor Practice.The electric-vehicle(EV)market is estimated to grow at a 20 percent CAGR through 2030,w

3、hen sales of xEVs are estimated to reach 64 millionfour times the estimated EV sales volume in 2022.1 Ensuring the EV component supply is sufficient to meet this rapid rise in estimated demand is critical,and the supply of silicon carbide(SiC)merits special consideration.Our analysis shows that comp

4、ared to their silicon-based counterparts,2 SiC metal-oxide-semiconductor field-effect-transistors(MOSFETs)3 used in EV powertrains(primarily inverters,but also DC-DC converters and onboard chargers)4 provide higher switching frequency,thermal resistance,and breakdown voltage.These differences contri

5、bute to higher efficiency(extended vehicle range)and lower total system cost(reduced battery capacity and thermal management requirements)for the powertrain.These benefits are amplified at the higher voltages needed for battery electric vehicles(BEVs),which are expected to account for most EVs produ

6、ced by 2030.In this article,we will examine how SiC manufacturers,automotive OEMs,and others can seize the oppor-tunities inherent in the projected EV market growth urge to create value and gain competitive advantages.1 Based on data from the McKinsey Center for Future Mobility.2 That is,silicon ins

7、ulated-gate bipolar transistors(IGBTs).3 A MOSFET is an electronically controlled switch.4 An inverter is a device that converts DC power from the EV battery to AC supply for the EV motor.5 Excluding subsidies.With subsidies,TCO is already at parity between EVs and ICE vehicles.Extensive market grow

8、th projected for EVs and SiC by 2030Between 2018 and 2022,projections for EVs share of the global light-vehicle market in 2030 increased 3.8 times,from around 17 million to 64 million units(Exhibit 1).This growth has been fueled by the expectation that EVs will reach total cost of owner-ship(TCO)par

9、ity with internal-combustion vehicles(ICEs)in many countries by 2024 or 2025,5 as well as by the regulatory actions taken and invest ments made in EVs and charging infrastructure as part of the push to meet net-zero targets.The SiC device market,valued at around$2 billion today,is projected to reach

10、$11 billion to$14 billion in 2030,growing at an estimated 26 percent CAGR(Exhibit 2).Given the spike in EV sales and SiCs compelling suitability for inverters,70 percent of SiC demand is expected to come from EVs.China,where anticipated EV demand is highest,is projected to drive around 40 percent of

11、 the overall demand for SiC in EV production.Across EVs,the type of powertrainBEV,hybrid electric vehicle(HEV),plug-in hybrid electric vehicle(PHEV),400-volt,or 800-voltdetermines the Ensuring the EV component supply is sufficient to meet this rapid rise in estimated demand is critical,and the suppl

12、y of silicon carbide merits special consideration.2New silicon carbide prospects emerge as market adapts to EV expansionExhibit 1Global light-vehicle sales,million units(%share)Prior xEV1 market forecasts,million unitsNote:Figures may not sum,because of rounding.1xEV includes battery electric vehicl

13、es(BEVs),hybrid electric vehicles(HEVs),plug-in hybrid electric vehicles(PHEVs),and fuel-cell electric vehicles(FCEVs).2Internal-combustion engine.Source:McKinsey Center for Future MobilityThe push to achieve net-zero objectives has accelerated the pace of electric-vehicle adoption.McKinsey&Company2

14、02220252030829295Series 1Series 2Total203064xEV1ICE2Current projection2021 projection(42 million units)2020 projection(30 million units)2019 projection(20 million units)2018 projection(17 million units)16(19%)32(35%)64(67%)66(81%)60(65%)32(33%)2022 projection(58 million units)The SiC device market,v

15、alued at around$2 billion today,is projected to reach$11 billion to$14 billion in 2030,growing at an estimated 26 percent CAGR.3New silicon carbide prospects emerge as market adapts to EV expansionben efits and relative uptake of SiC.Because of their greater efficiency needs,800-volt BEV powertrains

16、 are most likely to use SiC-based inverters.6 According to our analysis,by 2030,BEVs are expected to account for 75 percent of EV production(up from 50 percent in 2022),while HEVs and PHEVs will make up the other 25 percent.Furthermore,we anticipate more than 50 percent market penetration for 800-vo

17、lt powertrains by 2030(up from less than 5 percent in 2022).Accordingly,we anticipate a significant tailwind for SiC devices in the coming decade.6 Based on data from the McKinsey Center for Future Mobility.Vertical integration:A compelling business model in the SiC market The current SiC market is

18、highly concentrated,with only a few end-to-end leaders.Indeed,the top two companies in the SiC wafer and device markets control around 60 to 65 percent of SiC market share(Exhibit 3).The market rewards vertical integration,as evidenced by the dominance of the mostly integrated leading players.Accord

19、ing to our analysis,vertical integration Exhibit 2Annual silicon carbide power device revenue,$billionCAGR,202230Note:Data is as of November 2022.1Other applications as a share of industrial and energy include power supplies(23%),industrial applications(14%),commercial vehicles(12%),uninterruptable

20、power supplies(12%),and military and aerospace(12%).2xEV includes battery electric vehicles(BEVs),hybrid electric vehicles(HEVs),plug-in hybrid electric vehicles(PHEVs),and fuel-cell electric vehicles(FCEVs).3Per annum.Source:McKinsey Center for Future Mobility,Current Trajectory ScenarioThe silicon

21、 carbide device market is estimated to grow at a CAGR of 26 percent between 2022 and 2030.McKinsey&Company2022202520272030Industrial and energy1xEV20.91.12.83.44.65.28.610.50.81.11.31.61.82.22.83.91.72.24.15.06.47.411.414.4+26%p.a.3+18%p.a.3+31%p.a.34New silicon carbide prospects emerge as market ad

22、apts to EV expansionin SiC wafer and device manufacturing can improve yield by five to ten percentage points and margins by ten to 15 percentage points,7 partly from lower yield loss and partly from eliminating margin stacking at each step in the process(Exhibit 4).Higher yields are achieved from be

23、tter control over design and faster yield ramps with closed-loop feedback between wafer and device manufacture.Strategically,vertically integrated manufacturers can also offer a stronger value proposition to automotive OEMs because of higher supply assurance,which is 7 Compared to a combination of p

24、ure-play providers across these segments of the value chain.noteworthy in light of recent supply chain challenges.Similarly,vertical integration also offers wafer players a hedge against commoditization,such as has occurred in the silicon market.Not surprisingly,several leading manufacturers have al

25、ready evolved toward vertical integration through M&A and partnerships.In particular,semiconductor device manufacturers have added upstream capacity in wafer materials manufacturing.This includes the STMicroelectronics acquisition of Norstel,Onsemis acquisition of GT Advanced Technologies Exhibit 3M

26、itsubishi Electric7Silicon carbide(SiC)wafer1:2022 revenue and market share2SiC device3:2022 revenue and market share4 Note:Figures do not sum to 100%,because of rounding.1Includes only fnished raw SiC wafers.2Revenues and market shares of Rohm Semiconductor,SK Siltron,TankeBlue,STMicroelectronics,a

27、nd Onsemi estimated based on 2021 market shares as a proxy.3Discretes and modules.4Revenues and market shares of Mitsubishi Electric estimated based on 2021 market shares as a proxy.5Approximate revenue equivalent for GT Advanced Technologies.6Market share for Norstel.7Fully integrated end to end,bu

28、t captive.Source:Power SiC 2023,Yole Group,August 2023;McKinsey analysisThe top two players served around 55 to 75 percent of device and wafer markets in 2022.McKinsey&Company$554 millionProduce both wafers and devices53%20%12%7%7%WolfspeedRohmSemiconductorSTMicroelectronics6 CoherentSK SiltronOnsem

29、i5OnsemiOthersTankeBlue$1,947 million36%18%15%14%10%2%3%STMicroelectronicsInfneonWolfspeedRohmSemiconductorOthers.09%.04%.02%5New silicon carbide prospects emerge as market adapts to EV expansion(GTAT),and the Rohm Semiconductor acquisition of SiCrystal.8 These and other acquisitions demonstrate con

30、fidence in the operational,financial,and strategic benefits of vertical integration.Transitioning to 8-inch wafers can offer price,margin,and market advantagesAccording to our analysis,a transition from the pro duction and use of six-inch wafers to eight-inch wafers is anticipated,with material upta

31、ke beginning around 2024 or 2025 and 50 percent 8 For more on the STMicroelectronicsNorstel acquisition,see“STMicroelectronics closes acquisition of silicon carbide wafer specialist Norstel AB,”STMicroelectronics,December 2,2019;for more on the OnsemiGTAT acquisition,see“Onsemi completes acquisition

32、 of GT Advanced Technologies,”Onsemi,November 1,2021;for more on the Rohm SemiconductorSiCrystal acquisition,see“History of SiCrystal,”SiCrystal,accessed September 5,2023.market pene tration reached by 2030.Once tech nological challenges are overcome,eight-inch wafers offer manufacturers gross margi

33、n benefits from reduced edge losses,a higher level of automation,and the ability to leverage depreciated assets from silicon manufacturing.Our analysis projects the gross margin benefit of this transition to be about five to ten percentage points,depending on the level of vertical integration.Volume

34、 production of eight-inch wafers in the United States is projected to begin in 2024 and 2025,when industry-leading manufacturers are Exhibit 46-inch silicon carbide MOSFET1:Relative cost comparison by value chain step($per wafer),20221Metal-oxide-semiconductor feld-efect-transistor.2Epitaxy yields r

35、epresentative of epitaxy providers and integrated device manufacturers.Leading epitaxy providers ofer a yield improvement over in-house epitaxy,even for integrated manufacturers.3Device fabrication includes dicing and probe test.4Average selling price.Source:SiC transistor comparison 2021,Yole Group

36、,December 2021;McKinsey analysisVertical integration in silicon carbide device manufacturing can help realize signifcant increases in margin and yield.McKinsey&CompanyNonintegrated device manufacturerFully integrated device manufacturerSubstrateEpitaxy2Device fabrication3Module packagingCostDevice m

37、arginASP4(distributor)Margin expansion from elimination of margin stacking and yield improvementCost of processYield lossMargins6New silicon carbide prospects emerge as market adapts to EV expansionslated to bring capacity online.9 Production of eight-inch wafers is expected to ramp rapidly thereaft

38、er,chiefly in response to demand and price pressures(especially from midtier-volume EV OEMs),as well as to cost savings realized by conversion to eight-inch SiC wafer fabrication.Our analysis shows that eight-inch wafer substrates are still relatively more expensive per square inch compared to six-i

39、nch wafers,due to lower yields.However,the gap is expected to close for leading manufacturers in the coming decade because of process yield improvement and novel wafering technologies.For instance,we find that,compared to the conventional wafering technique with multi-wire saws,laser-cutting techniq

40、ues have the poten tial to more than double the number of wafers produced from one monocrystalline boule.And advanced wafering techniques such as hydrogen splitting could further increase the output.9 McKinsey analysis based on announcements from SiC wafer and device manufacturers.Greater involvemen

41、t in the SiC value chain creates new priorities for automotive OEMsAcute supply chain challenges,geopolitical consid-erations,the transition to 800-volt vehicles,and the resulting increase in demand for SiC MOSFETs have all prompted recent expansions of OEM involvement in semiconductor and SiC sourc

42、ing.Given recent supply chain disruptions and the developing SiC landscape,with anticipated major technological innovations,automotive OEMs engage in multiple sourcing models for both SiC-based EV inverters and the underlying SiC chips(Exhibit 5).Our analysis shows that,as the industry matures,prefe

43、rences are likely to shift toward greater OEM involvement in sourcing SiC as well as designing inverters.This shift also manifests itself in a growing number of partnerships between SiC manufacturers and automotive OEMs.Exhibit 5OEM involvement in silicon carbide sourcing and component manufacturing

44、 will prompt changes across the power component value chain.McKinsey&CompanyDegree of OEM involvementIdentifed OEM procurement archetypePartial movement by OEM from archetype expectedInverter build archetypeSilicon carbide(SiC)sourcing archetypeOEM designs and builds inverterTier 1 buys SiC chipsOEM

45、 buys SiC chips OEM builds their own SiC chipsOEM designs inverter;tier 1 buildsTier 1 designs and builds inverterX1342Complete movement by OEM from archetype expected567New silicon carbide prospects emerge as market adapts to EV expansionOEMs have engaged in numerous partnerships but few exclusive

46、agreementsPartnerships between SiC manufacturers and OEMs range from long-term supply agreements to strategic and development partnershipsand even to co-investments and joint venture agreements in manufacturing facilities.Our analysis of public announcements10 from 18 automotive OEMs representing mo

47、re than 75 percent of 2030 BEV volume found that 12 OEMs(representing more than 60 percent of 2030 BEV volume)have already announced two or more partnerships with SiC manufacturers.Five OEMs(representing around 15 percent of BEV volume)have announced one partnership,while only one OEM(representing a

48、round 2 percent of BEV volume)has not announced a partnership with a SiC manufacturer.While this analysis is limited to announced partnerships,there is a clear trend toward automotive OEMs diversifying 10 As of April 19,2023.and securing their supply chain with nonexclusive partnerships(Exhibit 6).T

49、his high level of OEM involvement indicates that incumbent and prospective SiC manufacturers that develop deep relationships with OEMs and have automotive-specific device capabilities will be best positioned to participate in the growth of this sector.SiC manufacturers seeking to ensure share of wal

50、let may wish to secure partnerships early,given barriers to demonstrating technical proficiency and assuring access to supply.This is particularly pertinent in light of the long-term nature of many supplierOEM relationships.Furthermore,less-established SiC manufacturers may need to build early partn

51、erships with OEMs to achieve a proof of concept and demonstrate assurance of supply to be designed into automotive platforms.Our analysis shows that OEMs are likely to be open to multiple Exhibit 6Number of announced silicon carbide(SiC)partnerships across automotive OEMsSeveral supply partnerships

52、between OEMs and silicon carbide manufacturers have been announced,but few are exclusive.McKinsey&Company5751Three or more SiC partnersOne SiC partnerNo SiC partnersTwo SiC partnersThere is a clear trend toward automotive OEMs diversifying and securing their supply chain with nonexclusive partnershi

53、ps.8New silicon carbide prospects emerge as market adapts to EV expansionpartnerships with less-established manufacturers to create new avenues of assured supply.Chinese OEMs signal increased local sourcing,but leaders have yet to emergeChina is expected to remain the largest SiC market through 2030

54、(Exhibit 7),with growth driven by consumer demand and supported by popular incentives,such as EVs exemption from license plate quotas.According to McKinsey research and analysis,this market is approximately one-third Chinese OEMs and two-thirds foreign OEMs in China,a mix that is expected to shift t

55、oward Chinese OEMs and approach a more even split by 2030.Currently,non-Chinese SiC manufacturers supply 80 percent of the wafer market in China and more than 95 percent of the device market.However,our analysis shows that Chinese OEMs are increasingly seeking local supply sources due to geopolitica

56、l and supply assurance considerations.Given sufficient capacity and technological performance,Chinese OEMs are expected to broadly shift procurement to local suppliers,from what is currently approximately 15 percent to around 60 percent by 2030(Exhibit 8).This shift to local procurement in China is

57、expected to be enabled by a rise in Chinese players across the whole SiC value chainfrom equipment supply,to wafer and device manufacture,to system integration.Chinese equipment suppliers already cover all major SiC fabrication steps and have announced invest-ments to ramp up capacity through 2027.H

58、owever,clear supply leaders have yet to emerge in the Chinese ecosystem.How stakeholders can make the most of the SiC demand surgeThe accelerating adoption of EVs and the increas-ingly vital role of SiC in the growing EV market denotes fundamental implications for players across Exhibit 7Silicon car

59、bide(SiC)inverter volume,millionSiC power device market for electric vehicles,$billion1Per annum.Source:McKinsey Center for Future Mobility,Current Trajectory Scenario;Yole Group component teardown tracks;McKinsey analysisChina is expected to remain the largest market for silicon carbide through 203

60、0.McKinsey&Company17.713.69.27.0Average selling price,$Greater China375Europe400North America 450North AmericaRest of world300Rest of worldEuropeGreater China20%p.a.130%p.a.120%p.a.120%p.a.1CAGR,2022303.23.82.53.12.02.41.01.29New silicon carbide prospects emerge as market adapts to EV expansionthe S

61、iC value chain.While there is no paramount strategy to lead with increased market share or value creation,some considerations are imperative for players to position themselves for primacy in the shifting SiC market.Automotive OEMs and tier-one suppliersWell-positioned automotive OEMs and tier-one su

62、ppliers will have EV and SiC adoption and timing plans that are aligned with the market and their peers.As OEM and tier-one partnerships are formed early in the development process,SiC inverter and semiconductor supply chain strategies tailored to internal capabilities and growth strategyfor example

63、,co-development partnerships with SiC device manufacturers versus more straightforward supply agreementsare highly advantageous in securing and maintaining partnerships.With advancements in technology such as trench topologies for transistors and hybrid Si-SiC inverter designs and continued shifts i

64、n the value chain,designing a holistic sourcing strategy that takes uncertainty into account will similarly serve OEMs and tier-one suppliers well.Semiconductor component manufacturersDefining a SiC growth and investment strategy that keeps pace with the growing opportunity for SiC across the EV and

65、 other markets is central to any well-situated semiconductor component manufacturers outlook.Access to the market with appropriately defined partnerships with automotive OEMs and tier-one suppliers is likewise vital,as is continued investment in technology development,capacity ramp-up execution,and

66、cost degressionparticularly in light of a transition to eight-inch wafers.Players will continue to shape and be shaped by build-buy-partner decisions across the manufacturing value chain,including those related to substrate,epitaxy,and devices.Prospective investors in SiCIdeally,a SiC investment the

67、sis incorporates an assessment of reinvestments and time to maturity that is aligned with the market,value chain,and technology dynamics.It is important for investors to consider which players are likely to emerge as leaders as the market matures,whether announced capacities are likely to come onlin

68、e as scheduled,Exhibit 8Web Exhibit of Expected silicon carbide device share of wallet procured locally within China,%Chinese OEMs are expected to increasingly prefer sourcing silicon carbide locally,from 15 percent in 2022 to 60 percent by 2030.McKinsey&Company202220301560Series 120222030515Chinese

69、Type of OEMForeign(in China)10New silicon carbide prospects emerge as market adapts to EV expansionCopyright 2023 McKinsey&Company.All rights reserved.Albert Brothers is a consultant in McKinseys New York office;Ondrej Burkacky is a senior partner in the Munich office;Julia Dragon is an associate pa

70、rtner in the Frankfurt office;Jo Kakarwada is a consultant in the Carolinas office;Abhijit Mahindroo is a senior partner in the Southern California office;Jwalit Patel is an associate partner in the Dallas office;and Anupama Suryanarayanan is an associate partner in the Silicon Valley office.The aut

71、hors wish to thank Michael Guggenheimer,Zachary Salyer,Dennis Schwedhelm,Brandon Strecker,Andreas Tschiesner,and members of the McKinsey Center for Future Mobility team for their contributions to this article.Scan Download PersonalizeFind more content like this on the McKinsey Insights Appand whethe

72、r there are opportunities to disrupt and create substantial value with strategically chosen investments.GovernmentsIncentives or ecosystem enablers can help governments support local demand for SiC for use in EVs and other applications.International frameworks that support the value chain and safegu

73、ard national interests could help support a global supply chain while fulfilling demands for localization and supply resiliency.The adoption of EVs represents a significant opportunity for players in the silicon carbide value chain.Competitive gains will likely be realized by those companies that at

74、tend to trends and opportunities in the SiC ecosystem and quickly build key capabilities and partnerships to support their growth ambitions.The SiC value chain is dynamic and has a high degree of uncertainty.There have been significant shifts in the demand environment:changes in inverter design and

75、the MOSFET need per inverter;the continued acceleration of EV demand;the value chain,including emerging players in China and investments in the SiC value chain by nontraditional players such as automotive OEMs;regulatory postures;and technology,including the rise of new wafering techniques improving yield.In this environment,all market participants gain strategic advantages from monitoring developments on an ongoing basis and building flexibility into their plans.11New silicon carbide prospects emerge as market adapts to EV expansion