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1、Plaudits and brickbatsBRICS+impactLONDON Economist Intelligence The Adelphi1-11 John Adam Street,London,WC2N 6HT United Kingdom Tel:+44(0)20 7576 8000 e-mail: GURUGRAM Economist Intelligence TEG India Pvt LtdSkootr Spaces,Unit No.1,12th Floor,Tower B,Building No.9DLF Cyber City,Phase IIIGurugram 122

2、002Haryana,IndiaTel:+91 124 6409486 e-mail:NEW YORK Economist Intelligence 900 Third Avenue16th FloorNew York,NY 10022United StatesTel:+1 212 541 0500e-mail:DUBAI Economist Intelligence PO Box No-450056,Office No-1301A Aurora Tower Dubai Media City Dubai,United Arab Emirates Tel:+971 4 4463 147 e-ma

3、il: HONG KONG Economist Intelligence 1301 Cityplaza Four 12 Taikoo Wan Road Taikoo Shing,Hong Kong Tel:+852 2585 3888 e-mail:Contact usFor more information on our solutions and how they can help your organisation,please visit .The world leader in global business intelligenceEIU offers deep insight a

4、nd analysis of the economic and political developments in the increasingly complex global environment;identifying opportunities,trends,and risks on a global and national scale.Formed in 1946,with more than 70 years of experience,it is ideally positioned to be a commentator,interpreter and forecaster

5、 on the phenomenon of globalisation as it gathers pace,enabling businesses,financial firms,educational institutions and governments to plan effectively for uncertain futures.Actionable insight to win in the worlds marketsThe worlds leading organisations rely on our subscription services for data,ana

6、lysis and forecasts that keep them informed about emerging issues around the world.We specialise in:Country analysisaccess detailed country-specific economic and political forecasts,as well as assessments of the business environments in different markets with EIU Viewpoint.Risk analysisour risk serv

7、ices identify actual and potential threats around the world to help our clients understand the implications for their organisations.Available products:Financial Risk and Operational Risk.Industry analysisfive-year forecasts,analysis of key themes and news analysis for six key industries in 60 major

8、economies.These forecasts are based on the latest data and in-depth analysis of industry trends,available via EIU Viewpoint.Speaker Bureaubook the experts behind the award-winning economic and political forecasts.Our team is available for presentations and panel moderation as well as boardroom brief

9、ings covering their specialisms.Explore Speaker Bureau for more speaker information.BRICS+IMPACT:PLAUDITS AND BRICKBATS The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 20231BRICS+impact:plaudits and brickbats South Africa hosted a productive three-day summit of the BRICS groupBrazil,Russia,India,China and S

10、outh Africaat the end of August,which enhanced the standing of the African powerhouse without unsettling key Western partners.The biggest policy announcement from the summit was an agreement to invite six new members to the blocArgentina,Egypt,Ethiopia,Iran,Saudi Arabia and the UAEwith their enrolme

11、nt set for January 2024.An expanded BRICS has impressive numbers in terms of its share of the global economy,international trade and the worlds population.However,its collective economic clout will be constrained by internal divisions and the lack of formal institutional structures.Concerns that the

12、 BRICS summit would adopt an anti-Western stance proved unfounded,and pre-summit talk of de-dollarisation made little headwayalthough there is clearly potential for settlement of more international transactions between BRICS partners in their local currencies.The summit theme”BRICS and Africa:Partne

13、rship for Mutually Accelerated Growth,Sustainable Development and Inclusive Multilateralism”put the focus on Africa and could help to create new trade,investment and financing opportunities for existing and new BRICS members.The latest annual summit of the five major emerging economies that make up

14、the so-called BRICS bloc was held in Johannesburg in late August.All national leaders were in attendance except the Russian president,Vladimir Putin,who sent his foreign minister instead,and the five states agreed to a major expansion of the bloc by inviting six new membersArgentina,Egypt,Ethiopia,I

15、ran,Saudi Arabia and the UAEto join in January 2024.With the exception of Argentina,we expect these countries to accept the invitation.The countries invited to join reflect the desire of individual BRICS members to bring allies into the club.Argentina is a logical inclusion and was Brazils pick,whil

16、e Egypt and EthiopiaAfricas third and second most populous countries respectivelywill give the continent a stronger voice and their inclusion was championed by South Africa.Saudi Arabia and the UAE will provide extra financial clout and are key oil producers,which were possibly Chinas and Indias res

17、pective choices,and Russia is likely to have been the main advocate for the inclusion of Iran.Pre-summit reports pointed to a larger number of new BRICS applicantsincluding Indonesia and Bangladeshbut not all confirmed their interest,and details of the selection process are murky.Further expansion s

18、eems probable in the future,depending on interim developments.BRICS+IMPACT:PLAUDITS AND BRICKBATS The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 20232Building economic cloutExpanding the bloc from five to 11 members will create a group of impressive economic size.An 11-member BRICS would take the blocs sha

19、re of the worlds population from 41%to 46%in 2024,its share of global GDP measured in US dollars adjusted by purchasing power parity(PPP)from 33%to 38%and its share of global goods exports from 20%to 23%.By contrast,the G7comprising the US,Canada,France,Germany,Italy,Japan and the UKwould still acco

20、unt for just 10%of the worlds population,29%of global GDP measured in PPP-adjusted US dollars and 29%of global goods exports.New members(2024)Applied formembershipMembersSource:EIU.BRICS share of global GDP and population,2023*PopulationGDP05101520ChinaIndiaBrazilRussiaSaudi ArabiaArgentinaUAESouth

21、AfricaEgyptIranEthiopia ChinaIndiaBrazilRussiaSaudi ArabiaArgentinaUAESouth AfricaEgyptIranEthiopiaGDP(US$bn)19,3743,7372,0812,0631,062641499399387368156Population(m)1425.71428.6216.4144.436.945.89.560.4112.789.2126.5GDP per head(US$)13,5892,6169,61614,28728,78013,99652,5266,6063,4344,1261,233EIU fo

22、recasts.*BRICS expansion,August 2023BRICS+IMPACT:PLAUDITS AND BRICKBATS The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 20233Crucially,adding new membersand specifically Iran,Saudi Arabia and the UAEwill elevate the BRICS share of global oil production from about 20%to 43%in 2024.Tension among partnersChina

23、 and Russia view the BRICS as a potential counterweight to the dominant position of Western countries,whose leadership is exercised through established global institutions such as the IMF,the World Bank and the UN Security Council.However,an expanded BRICS is unlikely to immediately threaten the exi

24、sting world order or herald the creation of an anti-Western bloc.Brazil and India are reluctant to swing an anti-Western cudgel,and BRICS members remain split over their response to the Russia-Ukraine war,illustrating the groups diverse opinions.Long-standing tensions between China and India remain

25、a major fault line,amplified by their rivalry for the leadership of the“Global South”a new term for developing countries and emerging markets.The expansion of BRICS will potentially boost its geopolitical influence,provided it can reconcile its internal tensions,but the group will become even more u

26、nwieldy.Adding six new countries(some with pre-existing tensions)risks generating more problems than solutions and will make it harder to reach consensus.The inclusion of Iran,a close Russian ally that is similarly subject to US economic sanctions,could be problematic,aggravated by Irans poor relati

27、ons with all three of the new Arab members.Adding to the strains,Egypt and Ethiopia remain at loggerheads over a large Ethiopian dam on the Upper Blue Nile.Lack of formal structuresThe BRICS will continue to be hampered by a dearth of formal structures,such as a secretariat or an expansive trade dea

28、l,which will constrain its direct economic influence.The Shanghai-based New Development Bank(NDB)was established by the five original BRICS members in 2015 and is already ahead on the expansion fronthaving admitted Bangladesh,Egypt and the UAEbut it remains very small compared with major development

29、 finance institutions.Whether the new BRICS members which are not already in the NDB(Argentina,Ethiopia,Iran and Saudi Arabia)will join the bank is BRICS share of global total(2024 forecasts)Source:EIU.BRICS-5BRICS-1101020304050PopulationGDP(US$PPP)Exports(goods)Oil production41%46%46%46%38%38%38%23

30、%43%5%33%5%19%4%20%23%BRICS+IMPACT:PLAUDITS AND BRICKBATS The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 20234uncertain.The lack of institutions underpinning the BRICS makes it hard to take co-ordinated action,such as devising new payment conduits or using different trading currencies.De-dollarisation a di

31、stant prospectAn expanded BRICS has given fresh momentum to the debate surrounding potential de-dollarisation of the global financial system.China,Russia and Brazil are the main proponents of dislodging the US dollar from its leading role in facilitating international trade and investment,but are ma

32、king little headway.According to the Bank of International Settlements,the US dollar is involved in almost 90%of foreign-exchange transactions and 85%of transactions in spot,forward and swap markets,and about half of all global trade is reportedly denominated in US dollars.The direction of travel co

33、uld well be the emergence of a multipolar world,where the US dollar has dominance in the Americas,the euro in Europe and the Chinese renminbi in Asia.However,this outcome would take decades to materialise,during which time the US dollar will continue to be the world reserve currency.The dominant mar

34、ket share of the US dollar in international financial transactions and the fact that so many people trust and covet its reliability,especially in times of crisis,would take a long time to erode.A declaration released at the end of the BRICS summit in Johannesburg made no mention of a common BRICS cu

35、rrency and instead focused on bilateral clearing,stressing the importance of“encouraging the use of local currencies in international trade and financial transactions between BRICS as well as between their trading partners”.In addition,the declaration encouraged the“strengthening of correspondent ba

36、nking networks between the BRICS countries and enabling settlements in local currencies”.The BRICS members will continue to push for modest transactions in local currencies between counterparts.Energy products hold a special place in the international system,and the expanded BRICS membership will co

37、ntrol 40-50%of the worlds oil supply.The ambitions of BRICS members to de-dollarise would receive a major boost should Saudi Arabia and the UAE agree to switch to non-dollar National stakes in New Development Bank(US$bn unless otherwise indicated)Subscribed capital%of totalBrazil10.019.0Russia10.019

38、.0India10.019.0China10.019.0South Africa10.019.0Bangladesh0.91.8Egypt1.22.3UAE0.61.1Note.NDB has the initial authorised capital of US$100bn,which is divided into 1m shares that have a par value of US$100,000 each.NDBs founding members made an initial subscription of 500,000 shares totalling US$50bn,

39、which include 100,000 shares corresponding to a paid-in capital of US$10bn and 400,000 shares corresponding to a callable capital of US$40bn.Source:New Development Bank.BRICS+IMPACT:PLAUDITS AND BRICKBATS The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 20235currencies for its oil tradespecifically selling o

40、il to China in renminbi and to India in rupees,which are by far the regions two largest buyer markets.However,both Saudi Arabia and the UAE have so far resisted pressure to make the switch;they appear reluctant to further destabilise relations with the US,and undermine the security guarantees they r

41、eceive from the US,or unsettle their own economies,which are closely tied to the petrodollar system,and currency pegs to the greenback.In the case of Iran,there will be no shift as sanctions mean that current buyers of its energy products already pay in non-dollar currencies.China,the largest buyer

42、of Iranian oil,is reportedly paying in renminbi.Whats in it for the members?Africa:The summit theme put the focus on Africa,but the practical impact will be small,especially in economic terms.Adding Ethiopia,where the African Union(AU)is headquartered,and Egyptwhich represents both Africa and the Ar

43、ab worldhas symbolic importance,but their bilateral relations are hostile and both face severe economic challenges.BRICS membership is unlikely to generate much extra economic benefit for either country beyond the existing support coming from other multilateral and bilateral agencies.In economic ter

44、ms,the ongoing construction of the African Continental Free-Trade Area(AfCFTA)is the main priority for most AU members,relegating BRICS to being a sideshow.One benefit of BRICS membership is the potential for bilateral deals,aided by networking at the annual summits and the preceding BRICS Business

45、Forums.During the recent BRICS summit,for example,China granted funding and equipment worth R567m(US$30m)to alleviate South Africas electricity crisis.In addition,the two countries signed agreements on infrastructure,agriculture and education.South Africa is particularly keen to address its large tr

46、ade deficit with Chinawith imports(US$22.5bn)being almost twice the size of exports(US$11.6bn)in 2022by boosting sales of value-added products.However,China is typically cautious about opening its market.BRICS membership will potentially have some geopolitical benefits,by providing a conduit for Afr

47、ican countries,as well as India,to press for reform of the UN Security Council,although China and Russiapermanent veto-wielding memberswill be cautious about losing influence if the number of South African goods trade(%of total;2022)Sources:South African Revenue Service;EIU.Imports from Exports to C

48、hinaIndiaUAESaudi ArabiaBrazilOther BRICSBRICSEU+UK0510152025303540201738272497544201011BRICS+IMPACT:PLAUDITS AND BRICKBATS The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 20236permanent members rises.Another potential benefit is Chinas role as a peacemaker,illustrated by a Chinese-brokered reconciliation b

49、etween Saudi Arabia and Iran in March.China may similarly attempt to reduce tensions between Egypt and Ethiopia.Russia,unlike China,is playing a more disruptive role in Africa,mainly in the Sahel,by deploying the Wagner Group(a private mercenary force),although the death of the Wagner boss,Yevgeny P

50、rigozhin,and some of his fellow commanders in a plane crash in Russia on August 23rd could herald a downturn in the groups fortunes on the continent.Middle East:The expansion of BRICS to include Saudi Arabia and the UAE will support efforts to rebalance their international relations between east and

51、 west.For Saudi Arabia and the UAE,the forum could provide another avenue through which to deepen bilateral ties with the worlds biggest emerging economies,thereby indirectly supporting inward investment and trade.However,gains will be marginal given the expanded group will lack formal economic stru

52、ctures.Adding the Middle Eastern members means that the group would include three of the worlds largest oil producers,but this has no practical import as Saudi Arabia and the UAE will be no more willing to tailor production and export policies to the needs of the BRICS than to those of the West.BRIC

53、S membership is a strategic foreign policy victory for Iran and could in future give the country a greater international voice if the group develops more political coherence.In Irans eyes BRICS accession demonstrates the failure of Western efforts to make the country an international pariah over its

54、 nuclear escalation,support for Russias war in Ukraine and domestic repression.However,the unwillingness of most BRICS countries to risk breaching strict US trade and financial sanctions on Iran,and the blocs lack of formal economic structures,will severely limit the economic gains.Asia:In recent ye

55、ars,the BRICS group has remained hostage to differences between its Asian members,China and India.Both these countries seek to wield their clout and emerge as leaders of the developing world,although China far exceeds Indias influence in this regard.Indias challenge will be to balance its position,g

56、iven its rising co-operation with Western countries and its invested approach in group like the Quad(an informal diplomatic bloc that,in addition to India,also includes the US,Australia and Japan).It will use its growing economy and robust bilateral relations with most of the newly included countrie

57、s to ensure its voice within the BRICS group as a leader of emerging economies remains relevant and potent,while trying to ensure the bloc does not become anti-Western.Beyond geopolitics,we expect some economic benefits of the expansion for its Asian members.The inclusion of Saudi Arabia and the UAE

58、 puts major oil producers in the same room as major oil consumers(principally China and India).Although decisions related to petroleum will remain confined to OPEC,the BRICS+forum may give oil-importing countries a platform to air their views.Attempts to push the Indian rupee as a trading currency w

59、ithin the group will have little success.Indias goal will be to ensure that any new additions to the BRICS group are restricted to members with which its bilateral relations are soundit is likely to be strongly opposed to future membership for Pakistan.It will also emphasise the need for uniform gui

60、delines and complete consensus in future inclusions.As India-China relations will remain strained over the longer term,there is a continuing risk of even a larger group facing policy deadlocks.Europe:Russia will use BRICS to platform its anti-Western geopolitical agenda and will remain a vocal suppo

61、rter of closer economic and political engagement.In practice,however,the role of Russia will be muted,especially as more members are admitted to the group,leading to a rearrangement of BRICS+IMPACT:PLAUDITS AND BRICKBATS The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 20237the weights.The absence of Mr Puti

62、n from the summit as a result of the warrant for his arrest by the International Criminal Court(ICC)highlighted the limits of Russias power projection.Nevertheless,Russia will continue to advocate for increasing de-dollarisation of intra-BRICS trade and will use Saudi Arabias and the UAEs joining as

63、 another avenue for influencing global oil price and supply dynamics outside of OPEC.Explicit support for Russia in its invasion of Ukraine from BRICS members and applicants alike remains highly unlikely.For the rest of Europe,the impact of the BRICS expansion will be limited and will not alter the

64、continents current foreign policy direction.Belarus and Kazakhstan,which have applied for membership,could potentially be accepted,but other countries in the region,such as Turkey,are unlikely to apply or join and most will remain firmly in the Western camp.Latin America:Brazils president,Luiz Incio

65、 Lula da Silva,was initially reluctant to facilitate Chinas drive to expand the BRICS club and(unsuccessfully)tried to condition his agreement on getting China to back Brazils long-term aspiration to secure a permanent seat on the UN Security Council.Although an expanded BRICS group amplifies the Gl

66、obal Souths chorus in geopolitics,Brazils own voice will be dialled down somewhat by the inclusion of the new members compared with its current position as one of the founding five.Getting to choose another South American country(Lula nominated Argentina)could help to offset this.However,it seems un

67、likely that Argentina will end up joining after its October legislative and presidential elections.Argentinas ruling partys presidential candidate,Sergio Massa(who wants to join the BRICS),trails two frontrunners in the pollsJavier Milei,a maverick libertarian,and Patricia Bullrich of the centre-rig

68、ht Juntos por el Cambio.The latter do not want to join on ideological grounds.Mr Milei has said that he will not join a group with“communists”and would seek close ties with the US and Israel,and Ms Bullrich rejects joining because of Irans inclusion(Argentina has identified Iran as being behind a 19

69、94 terrorist suicide-bombing of a Jewish community building in Buenos Aires that killed 85 people).It seems very unlikely,but we do not rule out a U-turn once they are in power(more possible under Ms Bullrich than under Mr Milei)given that a BRICS ticket would give Argentinas crisis-hit economy acce

70、ss to some desperately needed finance.The president of Mexico(Latin Americas second-largest economy),Andrs Manuel Lpez Obrador,who is in power until November 2024,has said that he does not want to apply for BRICS membership,preferring to cement ties with its North American partners as well as across

71、 Latin America.The presidents stance is in line with Mexicos long tradition of non-interference in the affairs of other countries,with the BRICS group regarded as being too politically driven(and anti-Western)for Mexicos comfort.This means that the next president is unlikely to seek membership eithe

72、r.Even so,Mexico is open to trading with the world,with dozens of free-trade agreements in place,but economic ties with the US will remain crucial as“nearshoring”advances.What next?The addition of new members will give the BRICS group a timely boost,but the bloc faces an array of thorny problems.Key

73、 hurdles are Chinas reduced economic dynamism,the uncertain outcome and duration of the Russia-Ukraine war and entrenched US-China rivalry in the political,economic and military spheres.Another key challenge,especially for African and Latin American markets,is harnessing the benefits of Chinese enga

74、gement while avoiding the risk of Chinese domination.BRICS+IMPACT:PLAUDITS AND BRICKBATS The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 20238Expansion will bolster the BRICS geopolitical significanceprovided the group can reconcile its internal tensionsand its combined economic muscle,but the direct econom

75、ic impact will be small.The BRICS group is unlikely to become a solid geopolitical and economic construction,regardless of how many bricks are added to the wall.The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 20239EIU Viewpoint:Country Analysis Preparing you for whats aheadUnderstand a countrys political,po

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