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1、 2023 dentsu|all rights reservedGlobalAd SpendForecastsDecember 2023ForewordA year of big media momentsWelcome to the December 2023 edition of the dentsu Global Ad Spend Forecasts,where dentsu investment analysts share the key ad spend trends and what they mean for brands for 2024 and beyond.In 2024

2、,advertisers will operate within a challenging macroeconomic background as global growth is projected to slow.Yet,it will be a year of big media moments,with global sports events,such as the Paris Olympics and Paralympics,and major local events,including the US presidential election,boosting investm

3、ents.In that context,we forecast global advertising to increase by 4.6%,outpacing the 2.9%economic growth.In 2024 we will see interesting developments for media across the board.It is expected to be the year when third-party cookies are finally deprecated after having been an inherent part of target

4、ing and measurement since the inception of digital advertising.It is the year when Amazon will truly enter the video ad segment with a new ad-supported plan by default for Prime Video,which holds promising prospects for closing the media loop.It is also a year when a barrage of franchise blockbuster

5、s is forecast to fuel cinema advertising momentum.In 2024,generative AI applications will become more concrete and scalable,opening exciting perspectives for channels like audio,where domestic podcasts could become global hits thanks to generative AI powered translation,but also contributing to new

6、threats for channels like print,with Made for Advertising websites.We hope this report will help you navigate the complex media landscape to drive business growth.Start with The Briefing for a digest of the direction of travel or delve right away into our Outlooks for more detailed insights.2Global

7、Ad Spend Forecasts|December 2023The Key Figures 4The Briefing 6Media Outlook 14Digital 15Television 17Print 18Out-of-Home 19Audio 20Cinema 21Market Outlook 23Americas 24Europe,Middle East,and Africa 25Asia-Pacific 26Industry Outlook 28Methodology 30References 31About dentsu 323Global Ad Spend Foreca

8、sts|May 2023ContentsGlobal Ad Spend Forecasts|December 20233Note for the reader:Ad spend in dentsu Global Ad Spend Forecasts is expressed in US dollars unless stated otherwise.Historical advertising spend figures have all been restated to constant October 2023 exchange rates.Full methodology is avai

9、lable on page 30.Global Ad Spend Forecasts|December 20234The Key FiguresAd Spend 2023Ad spend growth has been driven by media price inflation in 2023,with ad spend at constant prices actually declining by 0.7%(based on the top 12 markets that represent 86.7%of global spend).01The global advertising

10、market is expected to grow by$33.0 billion in 2024 to reach$752.8 billion,influenced by key media events including the US presidential election.02The pace of growth is expected to accelerate to 4.6%in 2024 at current prices but is revised down from our previous 4.7%forecast to account for the challe

11、nging economic outlook.03Growth is expected to remain above 4%for each quarter in 2024 and is forecast to peak at 5.5%in Q3 when major sports events will take place,including the Paris Olympics and Paralympics and UEFA Euro.04The Americas(46.9%share of global ad spend)is forecast to be the most dyna

12、mic region with 5.8%growth in 2024,followed by Asia-Pacific(32.0%share)with 4.0%growth,and EMEA(21.1%share)with 2.7%growth.05Two sectors are predicted to experience high growth in 2024:travel and transport(7.5%),with an anticipated rise in flight schedules,and pharmaceutical(7.4%),with increasing fo

13、cus on health post-pandemic.06Digital ad spend is forecast to pick up pace in 2024 to 6.5%(and exceed the 6.2%growth previously predicted)to reach$442.6 billion.It is projected to grow at a 6.3%three-year compound annual growth rate(CAGR)to 2026,when it is expected to capture more than 60%of the glo

14、bal ad spend for the first time.07TV ad spend returns to a forecast 2.9%growth in 2024.The market shows signs of stabilization with a 1.9%three-year CAGR,with strong 30.8%growth from connected TV.08Print ad spend is forecast to contract at a slower 2.6%three-year CAGR,out-of-home(OOH)exceeds expecta

15、tions with a 4.6%three-year CAGR,audio is forecast to grow by 1.5%three-year CAGR boosted by digital audio,and growth predictions for cinema have been revised up to a 3.9%three-year CAGR.09Global growth in advertising spend is forecast to continue at a 4.4%three-year CAGR,with the United States set

16、to become the first market to spend more than$1,000 per capita in 2026.10The Key Figures5Global Ad Spend Forecasts|December 2023The pace of advertising growth accelerates influenced by key media moments on the horizon.The BriefingAd Spend 2023Global Ad Spend Forecasts|December 20236According to the

17、International Monetary Funds(IMF)latest edition of the World Economic Outlook,1 the global economy will grow by 2.9%in 2024.This forecast is not only slower than the 3.0%growth predicted for 2023 but is also 0.1 percentage point lower than their previous 2024 forecast published in July 2023.The same

18、 report shows that growth projections vary significantly across the globe.2 In the advanced economies,growth projections decrease to 1.4%.North America has the highest forecasts of that group(Canada at 1.6%and the United States at 1.5%),thanks to robust private consumption and reduced exposure to th

19、e effect of the war in Ukraine on energy prices,while the United Kingdom brings up the rear with 0.6%.Emerging markets and developing economies are expected to grow at pace with 2023(4.0%),but the forecast for China has been revised down as the country faces a deep property sector crisis and underwh

20、elming consumption.The IMF also expects headline inflation to decline to 5.8%in 2024(-1.1 percentage point YOY).3 However,while interest rate increases have succeeded in slowing inflation in many markets,this has caused economic pain and belt tightening,restricting the amount of discretionary spendi

21、ng consumers are willing or able to afford.Shopping around for cheaper options is on the rise,as illustrated by US consumers increasingly looking for bargains during Amazon Prime Day.4 Additionally,the developing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East,and the consequences of climate patterns like

22、El Nio,create uncertainty around energy and food prices and thus headline inflation for 2024.The BriefingSlow growth for the global economy7Global Ad Spend Forecasts|December 2023A busy year for mediaIn this context,those in all economic sectors contemplate the growth prospects promised by the stell

23、ar ascent of generative AI and advertising is no exception.As scalable generative AI-powered solutions for media emerge,making the most of this breakthrough technology across audience insights,media planning,and real-time optimizations will be a central ambition of advertisers in the next year.Seven

24、 out of ten(72%)respondents to the dentsu 2023 Global Media Client Survey5 now think leveraging the opportunities associated with artificial intelligence and machine learning will be important or very important in their 2024 marketing strategy.Yet,while our survey shows advertisers are five times mo

25、re likely to be enthusiastic than worried about the impact of generative AI on their companies,their attitudes are more equally balanced when it comes to the larger impact of the technology on society.With legislators across the world turning their attention to generative AI,2024 could bring more cl

26、arity around the rules of engagement for this technology.Generative AI is not the only technological change impacting the advertising landscape in 2024.The deprecation of third-party cookies in the leading web browser,Google Chrome,is set to finally happen in the second half of the year,6 after seve

27、ral postponements.A series of key events will attract large audiences and advertising budgets in 2024.It will be a big year for sports,with July being particularly busy with some of the most popular quadrennial events,such as the UEFA Euro,the CONMEBOL Copa Amrica,and the Paris Olympics,all unfoldin

28、g on top of major annual competitions like the Tour de France.The Olympics alone are forecast to have a considerable impact on ad spend,that we estimated at 200 million in France and$2 billion in the United States.There will be key elections during 2024 in many markets such as the United States and

29、Mexico for the Americas,the United Kingdom and South Africa for EMEA,and India and Indonesia for Asia-Pacific.Similarly to sports events,elections act as boosters for media investments across channels.In the United States alone,we forecast the 2024 presidential election to generate an extra$10.2 bil

30、lion in ad spend.Yet,amid rising societal polarization,elections could also create an unstable environment for brands to navigate.In our survey,more than three quarters(77%)of advertisers anticipate 2024 being at least as turbulent as 2023,with almost half(46%)anticipating 2024 being more turbulent.

31、Brand safety and suitability will be more critical than ever to protecting ad investments.The Briefing8Global Ad Spend Forecasts|December 20232024 ad spend outpaces previous year and economic growthOur latest forecast,covering 58 markets across the globe,is that advertising spend will expand by$33.0

32、 billion in 2024 to reach$752.8 billion.This represents a 4.6%growth year-over-year for the ad industry much faster than the pace seen in 2023(+2.7%vs.2022).Whilst the first quarter will be the slowest of the year(4.2%),growth is forecast to accelerate in the second quarter(4.9%)before peaking durin

33、g the third(5.5%),supported by major sports events.Two sectors in particular are forecast to grow at a much faster rate than the global average:pharmaceutical(7.4%),travel and transport(7.5%).As mentioned in the May 2023 edition of the dentsu Global Ad Spend Forecasts,media price inflation has had a

34、 significant influence on growth.Global advertising spend at constant prices actually decreased by 0.7%in 2023.Advertising spend is expected to grow across all regions.The Americas,the largest region in terms of ad spend,is forecast to overtake Asia-Pacific as the most dynamic with 5.8%growth in 202

35、4,which is significantly greater than the 2.5%growth it experienced in 2023.Advertising spend in the region is expected to accelerate the fastest until at least 2025(4.8%growth).Asia-Pacific is predicted to grow by 4.0%in 2024(+0.5 percentage point vs.2023),and EMEA by 2.7%growth(+0.8 percentage poi

36、nt vs.2023).All the twelve largest markets,*which represent 86.7%of global ad spend,are also forecast to grow in 2024,with India(9.0%),Brazil(8.1%),the US(5.8%)and China(4.7%)all exceeding global average growth.Of these twelve markets,India is this year again projected to be the fastest growing,reac

37、hing$12.3 billion in 2024.Digital is expected to continue to perform as the essential growth driver of the India ad market in 2024(25.0%growth YOY).The rapid growth of digital in India can be attributed to the improvements in infrastructure and the rising penetration of high-speed internet.FIGURE 1

38、AD SPEND REGIONAL OVERVIEW,2024FThe Briefing*Australia,Brazil,Canada,China,France,Germany,India,Italy,Japan,Spain,UK,US$353.1B5.8%55.9%growth YOY digital share of spend$158.7Bgrowth YOY digital share of spend2.7%56.6%$240.9Bgrowth YOY digital share of spend4.0%64.4%AmericasEMEAAsia-Pacific9Global Ad

39、 Spend Forecasts|December 2023The BriefingAd spend keeps up with GDPIn light of the challenging macroeconomic context and considering the ad spend boosters expected for 2024,it is interesting to ask whether ad spend will keep up with the economy.The answer is yes.In 2024,advertising spend is forecas

40、t to represent,on average,0.75%of the gross domestic product(GDP)of the countries we track,which is consistent with the average annual ad spend/GDP indicator observed in the last 20 years(0.70%).Focusing on the twelve biggest advertising markets across the world,advertisers in Japan(1.26%),the Unite

41、d Kingdom(1.23%)and the United States(1.13%)will spend much more than those in other markets relative to their GDP.While for the United States this situation is typical(1.12%average over the last two decades),the United Kingdom spending is much greater than their 0.89%20-year average,as is Japan spe

42、nding(0.94%20-year average).At the other end of the spectrum of the biggest advertising markets,we have Spain(0.40%),Italy(0.37%)and India(0.30%).Although these markets ad spend/GDP indicators are much less than the global average,they are not at odds with their 20-year averages(respectively 0.45%,0

43、.39%,0.24%)and are more reflective of a structural tendency to conservative ad spending,rather than a 2024 anomaly in investments.Despite the economic outlook,most of the 12 biggest advertising markets will spend more relative to their GDPs in 2024(vs.their 20-year average).FIGURE 2 ADVERTISING SPEN

44、D/GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT20-year average2024Methodological note:20-year average is calculated from 2005 to 2024.All Markets average is calculated on 53 Markets.Markets on Y-Axis are ranked from top to bottom based on absolute advertising spend in 2024.0.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.91Advertising spend/Gross

45、Domestic Product(%)1.11.21.3SpainItalyCanadaIndiaAustraliaBrazilFranceGermanyUnited KingdomJapanChinaUnited StatesTop 12 markets averageAll markets average1.410Global Ad Spend Forecasts|December 2023The BriefingAd pressure reaches new heightsIt is also important to account for demographics when cons

46、idering the bigger picture of ad investments.In 2024,advertisers will spend,on average,$139 per capita across the world.It is about 75%more than what they spent 20 years ago($80).Here again,the situation varies around the globe.Focusing back on the twelve largest advertising markets,the United State

47、s is the undisputed champion,with$940 spent per capita,almost 7 times more than the global average.We forecast that the$1,000 spent per capita ceiling will be broken in this market by 2026.We can also see stark differences between countries with similar profiles.For instance,the United Kingdom,which

48、 has comparable population size and GDP per capita to those of France,spends more than twice in advertising per capita than its neighbor across the Channel.Beyond showing that advertisers always spend more to attract audiences,the ad spend per capita indicator also shows the growing ad pressure face

49、d by audiences.This metric is not perfect,as it includes age groups of the population not targeted by advertising(e.g.,young children)and,with the effects of media price inflation,we cannot jump to the conclusion that audiences see 75%more ads now than twenty years ago simply because advertisers spe

50、nd 75%more.Yet,it gives an idea of the increasing ad pressure audiences are exposed to,especially in mature markets.This increasing advertising pressure per capita reinforces the idea that media practitioners must move past traditional media metrics and rally behind attention-based strategies if the

51、y are to stand out.This is a field dentsu has spearheaded since 2018 through the Attention Economy program and it has changed the way many clients now plan their media investments.Additionally,while advertising activities are not neutral for the planet,the increasing ad investments per capita should

52、 be a reminder that advertisers should embrace carbon media efficiency strategies amid the climate emergency we face.According to the dentsu 2023 Global Media Client Survey,almost one out of two(48%)companies are currently taking concrete steps to reduce the carbon impact of their media campaigns,us

53、ing solutions such as dentsus Media Carbon Calculator.FIGURE 3 ADVERTISING SPEND PER CAPITANever have advertisers spent this much per capita,with the US getting closer to the$1,000 per capita milestone.2024Methodological note:Population data from international Monetary Fund,World Economic Outlook Da

54、tabase,October 2023 Edition10009008007006005004003002001000BrazilIndiaChinaAll markets averageSpainItalyTop 12 markets averageFranceCanadaGermanyJapanAustraliaUnited KingdomUnited States97789139 139143167265275358434499643940Ad spend per capita($)11Global Ad Spend Forecasts|December 2023Digital capt

55、ures more spendDigital is expected to follow an upward trajectory to reach$442.6 billion in 2024,representing 58.8%of global advertising spend.The slowdown to single-digit growth first observed in 2023(6.3%)is forecast to continue in 2024(6.5%)and to become the norm over the next years(6.3%three-yea

56、r compound annual growth rate to 2026).Yet,digital is expected to continue to drive global ad spend growth and capture the vast majority of new ad dollars,an additional$27.1 billion spend,in 2024.In the digital space,retail media investments will accelerate the fastest with a 17.2%three-year CAGR,fo

57、llowed by paid social investments(12.3%three-year CAGR),especially in Asia-Pacific(21.0%three-year CAGR).Programmatic channels,that already account for more than 70%of digital ad spend,are also expected to continue growing by double-digits(10.2%three-year CAGR).Following two consecutive years of dec

58、lining ad spend,TV is predicted to return to growth(2.9%)and capture 23.0%of ad spend in 2024.Connected TV is forecast to experience a rapid 30.8%growth,almost twice as fast as 2023 growth(15.9%),as major video platforms launch or refine their ad offering.Other media are expected to account for an 1

59、8.2%share of advertising spend in 2024.All will grow(cinema by 6.4%,out-of-home by 4.4%,audio by 1.1%),barring print that will contract by 3.3%,yet at a slower rate than in 2023(-4.6%).The BriefingTo learn more about the key media trends that will shape 2024,download our latest report The Pace of Pr

60、ogress:dentsu 2024 Media Trends on Ad Spend Forecasts|December 2023The BriefingFIGURE 4 AD SPEND EVOLUTION BY CHANNEL,2022-2026F($B)The 0-50 portion of the y-axis is not to scale for better readability.Digital specifically references pure play digital platforms and does not include ad spending on th

61、e digital extensions of traditional media(e.g.,digial print)which are accounted within media channel totals(e.g.,digital print is accounted within print).5004504003503002502003015020100105004020222023f2024f2025f2026f390.9415.5470.0499.7175.5168.5173.5176.3178.450.548.246.645.444.635.335.636.036.637.

62、32.62.62.82.92.937.940.642.444.146.5DIGITALTELEVISIONPRINTOUT-OF-HOMEAUDIOCINEMA442.6Global growth in advertising spend is forecast to continue at 4.4%three-year CAGR to 2026.13Global Ad Spend Forecasts|December 2023Digital ad spend is predicted to grow at a single-digit rate,while television return

63、s to growth.Global Ad Spend Forecasts|December 202314Digital TelevisionAudio PrintOut-of-Home CinemaMedia OutlookDigital continues to be the leading medium in 2023 with a 57.7%share of global advertising spend($415.5 billion).We expect this share to increase by,on average,one percentage point each y

64、ear over the next three years to reach 61.1%in 2026.Our latest data also confirms our prediction from the previous edition of the dentsu Global Ad Spend Forecasts:after more than two decades of stellar year-on-year growth,global digital ad spend slowed to single-digit growth for the first time in 20

65、23.It is now forecast to increase by 6.3%in 2023 and 6.5%in 2024.Total display spend(including social and digital video)has grown by 6.4%in 2023 to reach$220.7 billion.It is forecast to grow by 6.9%in 2024,and by a 6.5%three-year CAGR to 2026.Paid social continues to be a main driver of digital grow

66、th due to expanding functionality of social platforms(including shopping capabilities)to meet a wider range of their audiences daily needs,the boom of video content on platforms such as TikTok,and the scale and spend optimization possibilities of large ecosystems like Meta.We expect a 13.5%growth fo

67、r social media in 2024,as it will be one of the most utilized media to support major sporting events.As investments grow(12.3%three-year CAGR),we expect brands to increasingly focus on brand safety.Retail media continues to be one of the fastest growing channels with a projected growth of 20.8%in 20

68、24 and a 17.2%three-year CAGR,with advertisers leveraging first-party purchase data to maximize return on investment.As a tried and tested direct response channel that continues to deliver favorable performance outcomes,paid search is an appealing medium amidst economic uncertainty.Search ad spend i

69、ncreased by 7.2%in 2023 to reach$147.5 billion more than a third of digital ad spend.The outlook for search remains strong with the emergence of new AI-powered solutions,and we forecast an above average 6.9%three-year CAGR.Spend also continues to shift to programmatic channels,which increased by 13.

70、4%in 2023 to account for more than 70%of digital ad spend.Programmatic spend is expected to grow by a 10.2%three-year CAGR.Media OutlookFIGURE 5 DIGITAL SHARE OF ADVERTISING SPENDDigital Non-Digital58.8%41.2%15Global Ad Spend Forecasts|December 2023DigitalThe question of controlThe rapid sophisticat

71、ion of digital media leads to new challenges for marketers,from prioritization to measurement.This is perfectly illustrated by the growth of retail media,a media story of the decade.While Amazon alone has earned more than$12 billion in ad revenue in the third quarter of 2023,7 smaller players across

72、 the world still pose difficult challenges to advertisers,such as resourcing,organizational considerations,and true effectiveness in generating incremental sales.Ironically,at a time when data and AI are key topics,many advertisers must now operate with fewer data points than before,navigating dispa

73、rate privacy regulations,deprecating third-party cookies,and rising ad-blocking behaviors.As such,advertisers may feel as if they are losing control over their digital campaigns,but solutions are emerging to better manage digital media.For instance,although the shift to programmatic buying brings ef

74、ficiency,it also clouds transparency.In response,new programmatic marketplaces on trusted advertising platforms are being developed to bring a greater level of control over inventory supply.Initiatives such as the Dentsu Media Exchange(DMX)enable advertisers to select,classify,and better access inve

75、ntory,to ultimately focus their spend on a carefully selected pool of priority publishers offering quality advertising and content experiences.They also help advertisers avoid Made for Advertising websites(MFAs),an inefficient supply path producing unnecessary carbon emissions,while including leadin

76、g publishers in the DEI and sustainability spaces.Additionally,in light of increasing audience fragmentation and technological complexity,advertisers look for solutions to better manage media performance across channels.We see a resurgence of market mix modelling an econometrics technique where the

77、impact of a campaign is calculated through multiple inputs in conversations.Advertisers are increasingly adopting media carbon calculators to measure the carbon footprint of their campaigns across channels and formats,and to assess how it can be mitigated.They can also leverage new technology like D

78、entsu Optimise that takes live campaign spend and engagement data from multiple sources(e.g.,Google,IAS,and Double Verify)and adjusts bids on every ad impression based on up to 40 different variables,via custom bidding algorithms.As digital remains the largest advertising channel,we anticipate many

79、solutions will emerge in 2024 to help marketers navigate its increasing complexity and give them more control on their investments.Media OutlookCONSIDERATIONS FOR BRANDS 16Global Ad Spend Forecasts|December 2023Media OutlookTotal advertising spend on broadcast TV and connected TV(CTV)is forecast to

80、grow by 2.9%in 2024 to reach$173.5 billion.This growth will be driven by spend on the broadcast channels around key elections and global sporting events such as the Paris Olympics and Paralympics.It follows two consecutive years of declining spend(-0.4%in 2022 and-4.0%in 2023).The slight positive gr

81、owth trend and stabilization of TV spend will continue during the forecast period with a 1.9%three-year CAGR to 2026 as the proliferation of CTV offers,from free ad-supported streaming TV channels(e.g.,Pluto TV)to broadcaster and hybrid video-on-demand platforms(e.g.,Disney+),enables access to incre

82、mental audience supply.In the United States,the biggest advertising market,CTV spend grew at 16.1%year-on-year in 2023 and is forecast to grow at a 21.5%three-year CAGR.Its share of total TV spend reached 23.7%($17.4 billion)in 2023,and is forecast to increase to 29.3%in 2024.Globally,however,broadc

83、ast TV has continued to account for the lions share of TV advertising spend at$147.6 billion in 2023,as advertisers continue investing in this reach-driving and efficient medium.Total TV share of global spend is now steadying with a more marginal decline of half a percentage point each year from 23.

84、4%in 2023 to 21.8%in 2026 totaling$178.4 billion.The arrival of a new giantCTV growth provides new opportunities for advertisers to develop holistic approaches to video,brings more competition around premium content,and helps to counter media inflation.Amazon will add advertising to Prime Video in e

85、arly 20248 as a default for viewers in the United States,United Kingdom,Germany,and Canada,with others added later in the year.While streaming rivals including Netflix9 and Disney+10 have created separate ad-funded tiers,ads will appear in Prime Video unless users actively opt to pay more for an ad-

86、free alternative.This could give Amazon a TV advertising audience of more than 100 million from the start,assuming a large proportion of their 200 million Prime customers11 stick tothe advertising-supported default option,compared to the 15 million active users Netflix gathered in the first year of

87、its ad-supported plan.12 If Amazon can offer the same targeting as it does with the rest of its portfolio,such as shopping habits and consumer data,this will further cement Prime Video as a great advertising opportunity.Amazons entry into the market also means that all the major streamers now offer

88、ad-supported programming to at least part of their offerings.Amazons potential in this area is a good illustration of how TV is changing as it becomes digital,moving away from the traditional demographic targeting to the promise of one-to-one targeting that advertisers with the right data sets can u

89、se in other digital media.This includes closed loop attribution for campaigns,where marketers can see the business impact of their activity through their data providers.Advertisers still want to be able to make big spending commitments in TV to guarantee access to the best programming,but within the

90、se commitments they now also want the flexibility to buy programmatically for strategic elements of their buy.CONSIDERATIONS FOR BRANDS 17Global Ad Spend Forecasts|December 2023TelevisionAs a result of expanding digital audience habits,print(newspapers and magazines)advertising spend has been declin

91、ing year-on-year since 2008.However,in recent years spend has stabilized.Following a 4.9%decline in 2022 and a 4.6%decline in 2023,print ad spend is forecast to contract at a slower 2.6%three-year CAGR to 2026.The medium is expected to continue to account for$46.6 billion in spend in 2024,a 6.2%shar

92、e of global advertising spend.As print publishers reinvent themselves focusing on digital platforms,events,and subscription models,digital revenues have already surpassed traditional print revenues in markets such as Australia,Spain,the United Kingdom,and the United States.The authority of the brand

93、,the convenience of digitalRising costs,including paper,printing,and distribution,are leading print titles to reduce pages,editions,or even remove news stand sales altogether.This will be the case of National Geographic in 2024,13 while still surviving as a strong brand across other media.Online and

94、 social media,in particular,are popular means of accessing press content over the physical print versions,especially with younger audiences.Yet,the publishing industry has a complicated relationship with online platforms.In June 2023,both Google14 and Meta15 stopped linking to news stories in Canada

95、,in response to the governments Bill C-18 insisting they pay official news organizations for giving users access to news.This type of legislation may inspire regulators in other markets,and may limit prominence of trusted news sources,rather than reduce usage of social media platforms in the short t

96、erm.16Overall,2024 looks promising for print,with major elections in many markets and global sports events likely to drive audiences to their favorite trusted sources.As Made for Advertising websites(MFAs)emerge,using clickbait and search optimization to gain traffic but not actually featuring quali

97、ty content,print brands remain trusted sources of information and entertainment for audiences,and a reliable core channel for sectors such as high-end fashion and luxury.Media OutlookCONSIDERATIONS FOR BRANDS 18Global Ad Spend Forecasts|December 2023PrintOut-of-home(OOH)is forecast to grow by 4.4%in

98、 2024 to reach$42.4 billion,representing 5.6%of global advertising spend.The medium is forecast to grow by a 4.6%three-year CAGR to 2026.Traditional OOH is healthy,growing by 6.9%in 2023 and 3.6%in 2024,and is expected to continue to account for the lions share of spend in OOH in 2024($35.3 billion)

99、,as it remains popular in specific sectors.Yet,digital OOH(DOOH)is where the channel will grow the fastest(8.5%in both 2023 and 2024).In markets such as Australia and the United Kingdom,DOOH has already overtaken traditional OOH spend to account for 68.1%and 64.6%share of OOH spend,respectively.Prog

100、rammatic DOOH is seeing huge growth and already represented 14.0%of DOOH spend in the United States in 2023,though there is still some way to go yet before programmatic buying becomes the dominant route to market.A successful digitizationCities are changing,with people adapting to different habits l

101、ike working from home,and mobility solutions like electric bikes,scooters,and charging points bringing new opportunities to advertisers.In this context,OOH continues to grow,as better use of data and measurement coupled with relative cost effectiveness in relation to other channels makes it an attra

102、ctive option for brands to reach audiences.The OOH space is digitizing,with major players adding more digital screens,including 3D capabilities,to their estates.Artificial intelligence and augmented reality are expected to play pivotal roles in the next few years in creating new avenues for the medi

103、um,such as the recent rise of CGI-generated virtual OOH placements on social channels.The rise of programmatic buying allows better syncing of digital campaigns across media and could be the lever helping OOH to take a greater percentage of global ad spend in the future.Marketers must understand how

104、 their OOH campaigns work as part of an omnichannel strategy,and how they work if the medium is used on its own.OOH has always been fertile ground for creativity and storytelling.The entertainment sector is greatly increasing its spend in the channel,where platforms like Netflix and Disney+can show

105、trailers to audiences outside the home without having to buy space on their competitors audio and video channels.Media OutlookCONSIDERATIONS FOR BRANDS 19Global Ad Spend Forecasts|December 2023Out-of-HomeAudioMedia OutlookFollowing 4.1%growth in 2022,total audio ad spend is expected to have increase

106、d slightly by 0.7%to reach$35.6 billion in 2023,accounting for a 4.9%share of global ad spend,which remains consistent with previous forecasts.Online listening options and podcasts are becoming more prevalent with investments shifting from traditional audio.Subsequently,traditional audio is projecte

107、d to have decreased by 0.8%in 2023,while online audio continued its robust growth with a 5.6%increase.Looking ahead,the total audio market is anticipated to grow by 1.1%in 2024 to$36.0 billion,maintaining a 4.8%share of global ad spend,and is forecast to grow by 1.5%three-year CAGR to 2026.New gener

108、ative AI perspectives Audio listening is driven by digital audio listening,especially among younger demographics,helped by the ubiquity of phones,apps,and headphones.Digital audio gives listeners access to an incredibly wide range of on-demand content,from music to news to podcasts,and has been show

109、n to deliver brand messages with a high level of attention17 potentially similar to online video and TV,but at a lower cost.There is also great potential from generative AI in the areas of content licensing and translation.Spotify recently partnered with several high-profile podcasters,including Mon

110、ica Padman and Lex Fridman,to translate their shows into additional languages,all in the original podcasters voice.18 This could allow existing podcast brands to become genuinely global,potentially opening the channel to much bigger advertising and partnership deals from a wider range of brands.Whil

111、e a lot of the focus in audio is about podcasting,there are opportunities in converting the significant reach and extensive amount of time spent with traditional radio into proportionate levels of ad spend.The industry should come together to improve performance measurement and capitalize on radios

112、high attentional levels(92%for thirty-second ads)and low attention cost per thousand impressions.CONSIDERATIONS FOR BRANDS 20Global Ad Spend Forecasts|December 2023Media OutlookCinema advertising spend is predicted to have reached$2.6 billion in 2023,up 2.0%year-on-year but still below 2019 levels($

113、3.4 billion),and its share of global ad spend is expected to remain steady at 0.4%.Growth predictions have been revised up to 6.4%for 2024(vs.5.5%previous forecast)and to 3.4%for 2025(vs.2.9%previous forecast)to reach$2.9 billion.An improving outlook2023 was a high-profile year for cinema,partly tha

114、nks to the simultaneous release of Barbie and Oppenheimer,aka Barbenheimer,in August,with both films ranking in the top three for the year based on worldwide revenues.19 The global box office is on the rise YOY,exceeding 2022s total by the end of September 2023.20 Yet,it is still forecast to be 18%b

115、elow the 2019 total at the end of the year.21 This is despite increased ticket prices,meaning actual audiences for cinema advertising are likely more than 20%down from pre-pandemic numbers.We have yet to see whether there has been a structural change in behavior with fewer people going to the movies

116、 in the age of streaming platforms,or whether,in time,audiences will flock in greater numbers than before.The 2024 slate looks likely to continue the growth seen in 2023,with many new titles in strong existing franchises,including new Kung Fu Panda,Dune,Ghostbusters and Deadpool movies.CONSIDERATION

117、S FOR BRANDS 21Global Ad Spend Forecasts|December 2023CinemaMedia Outlook 20222023f2024f2025f2026fTotal advertising spend($B)*701.1719.8752.8784.6818.4YOY Growth(%)8.12.74.64.24.3Digital($B)*390.9415.5442.6470.0499.7Share of total spend(%)55.857.758.859.961.1YOY growth(%)14.86.36.56.26.3Total Displa

118、y($B)*207.4220.7235.9250.7266.6Share of digital spend(%)53.153.153.353.353.4YOY growth(%)15.36.46.96.36.3Paid Search($B)*137.5147.5157.8168.5180.2Share of digital spend(%)35.235.535.735.936.1YOY growth(%)15.07.27.06.86.9Classified($B)*20.120.120.320.821.3Share of digital spend(%)5.14.84.64.44.3YOY g

119、rowth(%)10.0-0.11.12.12.9Television($B)175.5168.5173.5176.3178.4Share of total spend(%)25.023.423.022.521.8YOY growth(%)-0.4-4.02.91.61.2Print($B)50.548.246.645.444.6Share of total spend(%)7.26.76.25.85.5YOY growth(%)-4.9-4.6-3.3-2.6-1.8Newspapers($B)29.728.427.526.926.5Share of total spend(%)4.24.0

120、3.73.43.2YOY growth(%)-5.2-4.2-3.2-2.2-1.6Magazines($B)20.819.819.118.518.1Share of total spend(%)3.02.72.52.42.2YOY growth(%)-4.5-5.0-3.4-3.1-2.2Out-of-Home($B)37.940.642.444.146.5Share of total spend(%)5.45.65.65.65.7YOY growth(%)11.47.24.44.25.3Audio($B)35.335.636.036.637.3Share of total spend(%)

121、5.04.94.84.74.6YOY growth(%)4.10.71.11.71.8Cinema($B)2.62.62.82.92.9Share of total spend(%)0.40.40.40.40.4YOY growth(%)32.42.06.43.42.1*For total display,paid search,and classified,the figures are based on the markets where the breakdown of digital spend is available.Therefore,the combined spend of

122、total display,paid search,and classified may differ from the total digital spend.Total advertising spend includes“Other”which is not itemized in this tableFIGURE 6 AD SPEND PER MEDIA,2022-2026F22Global Ad Spend Forecasts|December 2023Market OutlookAmericasEMEAAsia-PacificThe Americas region is expec

123、ted to overtake Asia-Pacific as the most dynamic region.Global Ad Spend Forecasts|December 202323Following 2.5%growth in 2023,advertising spend in the Americas is projected to accelerate to 5.8%in 2024,exceeding the 4.6%global average to account for a substantial$353.1 billion.TV is notably expected

124、 to have a strong 2024 with 6.8%growth,accounting for 26.2%share of spend.Nearly all of the$19.5 billion additional spend in 2024 is predicted to come from the United States($17.3 billion)and Brazil($1.2 billion).Of the top spending markets,Brazil is forecast to grow at 8.1%in 2024,with US at 5.8%an

125、d Canada at 3.6%.The outlook for 2025 is growth at 4.8%to$370.0 billion,with the Americas forecast to account for a growing share of global advertising spend(from 46.4%in 2023 to 47.2%by 2025).United StatesAfter a challenging 2023 ad market,the US ad spend forecasts have been revised up from 5.4%to

126、5.8%in 2024,up$17.3 billion to a total of$316.4 billion.Political advertising for the presidential election will help drive spend($10.2 billion in incremental ad spend up from$9.0 billion in 2020),and the Super Bowl remains in demand as an avenue for brands launching new products.Retail media remain

127、s one of the fastest growing channels(21.2%growth)as more retail media networks enter the marketplace and additional capabilities and partnerships develop,such as social integrations.AI is a driving force behind the 9.4%growth in paid search,with the emergence of new AI-powered solutions introducing

128、 new opportunities for advertisers to extend reach and personalize ad experiences.The rise of connected TV(32.2%growth)continues to be a major trend as viewership explodes,and ad spend growth is forecast to reach more than a third of TV spend in 2025.Following a 2024 ad market that will optimistical

129、ly see budgets return,the US ad market is predicted to rebalance with 4.4%growth in 2025.BrazilThe ad market in Brazil is projected to reach$15.7 billion in 2024,growing 8.1%year-on-year,driven by various sectors including automotive,beverages,and pharmaceutical.TV ad spend is anticipated to grow by

130、 9.0%to reach$7.6 billion in 2024.It will remain the leading medium,capturing an increased market share from 47.8%to 48.2%.Meanwhile,digital ad spend will account for 36.3%of the total spend,reflecting accelerated digitization facilitated by initiatives promoting digital inclusion,rising accessibili

131、ty of the internet and smartphones,and advertisers increasing digital investment since the pandemic.With the Paris Olympics and Paralympics taking place in 2024,competition in sports broadcasting between broadcast TV and streaming platforms is expected to intensify,accompanied by an increase in the

132、overall audience.Looking ahead,the Brazilian market is forecast to grow by 12.9%in 2025 to reach$17.7 billion.Market Outlook24Global Ad Spend Forecasts|December 2023AmericasEMEA advertising spend is forecast to grow moderately by 2.7%to reach$158.7 billion in 2024.While expected growth is lower than

133、 the 4.6%global average,it is faster than in 2023(1.9%),thanks to UEFA Euro and Paris Olympics and Paralympics.Digital will be a key growth driver and is predicted to account for 56.6%of spend(vs.58.8%globally).More than half of the$4.2 billion year-over-year additional spend comes from the United K

134、ingdom($1.5 billion),Germany($0.5 billion),and France($0.4 billion).Of the top five spending markets,the UK and Italy are projecting above the regions average growth in 2024 at 3.5%and 3.1%respectively with France at 2.4%,Germany 1.8%and Spain 1.8%.Looking ahead,EMEAs advertising spend is expected t

135、o grow by 2.7%to account for$163.1 billion in 2025.United KingdomFollowing 1.4%growth in 2023(down on our previous forecast),the UK ad market is predicted to grow by 3.5%in 2024(in line with our previous prediction).OOH and Digital are both expected to grow at 4.0%in 2024,with digital accounting for

136、 more than 70%of ad spend and OOH set to exceed 2019 spend levels for the first time.Cinema continues its recovery from 2020 with 10.0%growth forecast,whilst audio is predicted to grow by 2.2%a reflection of stable listening figures and price inflation.TV and print,after declining the most in 2023(-

137、7.0%and-3.6%respectively),bounce back with modest 2.0%growth for TV and 0.7%for print(including online formats).Growth of 2.8%is expected in 2025 when the UK ad market is projected to reach$45.1 billion.ItalyAdvertising activity was stronger than expected in 2023,with growth revised up to 2.8%.In 20

138、24,the market is forecast to expand by 3.1%as UEFA Euro in Germany and the Olympics and Paralympics in Paris,both in a favorable time zone,are expected to drive growth for TV,digital,and paid social.Broadcast TV closed H1 2023 growing by 0.5%with greater stability in audience and spend but was impac

139、ted in H2 by the comparison with the FIFA World Cup the previous year.In 2024,TV is expected to grow at an increased 3.8%rate to account for the leading share of spend(44.5%),thanks to strong growth of connected TV(16.7%)and broadcaster video-on-demand(26.6%).The digital extensions of traditional me

140、dia continue to grow at double digits,including digital OOH(20.0%)and digital audio(23.1%).We predict 1.5%growth in 2025 as the rise of digital formats compensates for the decline in traditional media.Market Outlook25Global Ad Spend Forecasts|December 2023EMEAAdvertising spend in Asia-Pacific is for

141、ecast to gain momentum in 2024 and grow by 4.0%,to account for$240.9 billion,following 3.5%growth in 2023.Digital continues to be a key driver of growth,expanding at mid-high single digits,7.3%in 2023 and a forecast 7.4%in 2024.Digital represents a growing share of spend approaching two thirds of th

142、e regions total at 62.4%in 2023 and 64.4%in 2024.OOH has also seen notable growth in the region,with a share of spend at 7.7%(vs.5.6%globally).In 2024,the majority of the$9.3 billion of additional spend is expected to come from China($5.6 billion),Japan($1.3 billion),India($1.0 billion)and Australia

143、($0.3 billion).Of the top spending markets,India and China are forecast to grow faster than the regions average growth rate at 9.0%and 4.7%,respectively.Asia-Pacific is forecast to grow at 4.4%in 2025 to reach$251.5 billion and a 32.1%share of global ad spend.ChinaAs the largest advertising market i

144、n Asia-Pacific,China accounts for 51.9%of the advertising spend in the region.The market is forecast to reach$125.1 billion in 2024,indicating a 4.7%year-on-year growth,slightly less than the 5.2%forecast in May 2023.The steady growth pattern has become the norm during the recovery phase after the t

145、hree-year zero-COVID policy,however the market is adopting a more cautious and measured approach towards media investment than initially anticipated.A balanced quarterly increase in ad spend is expected throughout the year.Digital spend is anticipated to remain high in 2024,accounting for 80.0%of th

146、e total spend and experiencing a 7.7%year-on-year growth.Social media platforms are projected to expand rapidly at 26.0%,remaining a significant driving force of digital growth.Looking ahead,the Chinese ad market is estimated to grow by 4.4%in 2025,reaching a total of$130.6 billion.JapanAs the third

147、 largest ad market,Japan is set to maintain its steady growth trajectory in 2024,2.5%reaching$53.4 billion,with digital commanding a 45.8%share of total ad spend.The segments projected growth rate of 5.2%is largely driven by search,video,and social advertising,the latter fueled by the proliferation

148、of video ads.TV,the second largest medium with a 23.5%market share,is expecting gradual recovery after a period of decline,maintaining stability(-0.2%)in 2024 and showing potential for growth from 2025 onwards.Additionally,OOH is anticipated to grow due to post-pandemic recovery,with new formats lik

149、e 3D OOH and large digital OOH being explored.Looking ahead,the Japanese ad market is projected to expand further by 3.6%,reaching$55.3 billion in 2025.Market Outlook26Global Ad Spend Forecasts|December 2023Asia-PacificMarket Outlook 20222023f2024f2025f2026fGLOBAL($B)701.1 719.8 752.8784.6 818.4 YOY

150、 growth(%)8.1 2.7 4.6 4.2 4.3AMERICAS($B)325.6333.6 353.1370.0 389.6YOY growth(%)12.72.5 5.84.85.3 North America($B)303.1309.8327.5341.8357.9YOY growth(%)12.62.25.7 4.4 4.7United States($B)292.8 299.2316.4330.3 346.0YOY growth(%)12.9 2.2 5.84.44.7Canada($B)10.3 10.711.011.511.9YOY growth(%)5.23.53.6

151、3.93.7Latin America($B)*22.423.825.728.331.7YOY growth(%)13.36.17.910.112.1Brazil($B)13.714.515.717.720.5YOY growth(%)16.46.08.112.915.3EMEA($B)151.7154.6 158.7 163.1167.3YOY growth(%)4.81.9 2.72.72.6Western Europe($B)135.2 137.4141.0144.4148.1YOY growth(%)5.21.62.62.42.6United Kingdom($B)41.8 42.44

152、3.945.146.3YOY growth(%)9.1 1.43.52.82.8Germany($B)29.2 29.429.930.631.2YOY growth(%)-0.20.61.82.02.0France($B)16.717.017.417.918.3 YOY growth(%)6.52.12.42.52.5Italy($B)7.98.18.48.58.9YOY growth(%)1.52.83.11.54.8Spain($B)6.46.66.76.86.9YOY growth(%)3.72.31.82.11.4Central and Eastern Europe($B)*7.17.

153、27.37.37.4YOY growth(%)7.21.60.80.50.9Asia-Pacific($B)223.8231.6240.9251.5261.5YOY growth(%)4.23.54.04.44.0China($B)113.9119.5125.1130.6135.7YOY growth(%)1.54.94.74.43.9Japan($B)51.052.153.455.356.8YOY growth(%)4.42.22.53.62.6Australia($B)13.013.113.413.714.0YOY growth(%)8.80.52.32.32.4India($B)10.4

154、11.312.313.615.2 YOY growth(%)18.28.69.010.711.3FIGURE 7 AD SPEND PER REGION AND TOP 12 MARKETS,20222026F*In this December 2023 edition of the dentsu Global Ad Spend Forecasts,Argentina and Turkey ad spend figures are adjusted for inflation due to the high inflation in market.27Global Ad Spend Forec

155、asts|December 2023Travel and transport and pharmaceutical are forecast to be the fastest growing sectors in 2024.Global Ad Spend Forecasts|December 202328Industry OutlookIndustry OutlookAUTOMOTIVE16.62.63.6FIGURE 8 AD SPEND INDUSTRY OVERVIEW,2022-2024FYear-on-Year%growth at current pricesBased on ma

156、rkets Australia,Brazil,Canada,China,France,Germany,India,Italy,Japan,Spain,UK,US20222023f2024fTECHNOLOGY7.40.57.1BEVERAGES5.06.37.2FOOD5.87.39.7PHARMACEUTICAL16.59.5RETAIL-2.66.57.511.57.5TRAVEL AND TRANSPORT47.3FINANCE4.76.9TELECOMMUNICATION-0.63.4MEDIA AND ENTERTAINMENT1.44.610.0GOV,SOCIAL,POLITIC

157、AL,ORGANISATION7.65.510.4COSMETICS AND PERSONAL CARE4.97.1-1.57.4-3.6-4.229Global Ad Spend Forecasts|December 2023Advertising expenditure forecasts are compiled from data collated from dentsu agencies until the second half of October 2023 and based on local market expertise.Dentsu uses a bottom-up a

158、pproach,with forecasts provided for 58 markets covering the Americas,Europe,Middle East,and Africa,and Asia-Pacific by medium:digital,television,print,out-of-home,audio,and cinema.Digital specifically references pure play digital platforms and does not include ad spending on the digital extensions o

159、f traditional media(e.g.,digital print)which are accounted within media channel totals(e.g.,digital print is accounted within print).The advertising spend figures are provided net of negotiated discounts and with agency commission deducted,in current prices and in local currency.Global and regional

160、figures are centrally converted into US dollars at the October 2023 average exchange rate.The forecasts are produced biannually with actual figures for the previous year and latest forecasts for the current and following years all restated at constant exchange rates.This report is protected by copyr

161、ight and all rights are reserved.This report,either in whole or part,may not be reproduced or transmitted,whether by photocopying or storing in any medium of electronic means,without the written permission of the copyright owner.Every precaution has been taken to ensure the contents of this report a

162、re accurate at the time of publication,but dentsu does not guarantee nor can it be held liable for its accuracy.This report has been produced to give dentsus view and should not be relied upon or taken as giving advice.MethodologyGlobal Ad Spend Forecasts|December 202330References1 International Mon

163、etary Fund,Navigating Global Divergences,October 20232 International Monetary Fund,Navigating Global Divergences,October 2023 3 International Monetary Fund,Navigating Global Divergences,October 20234 Adobe Analytics:Prime Day drove record U.S.online spending,bolstered by deep discounts,July 20235 de

164、ntsu,dentsu 2023 Global Media Client Survey,September 20236 Google,The Privacy Sandbox,The next stages of Privacy Sandbox:General availability and supporting scaled testing,May 20237 Amazon,A Announces Third Quarter Results,October 20238 Amazon,An Update on Prime Video,September 20239 Netflix,Netfli

165、x Starting From$6.99 a Month,October 202210 The Walt Disney Company,Ad-Supported Disney+Plan Now Available In The U.S.With More Than 100 Advertisers Across All Major Categories At Launch,December 202211 Amazon,2021 Letter to Shareholders,April 202212 Netflix,One Year Into Netflix Ads,November 202313

166、 AP News,National Geographic will end newsstand sales of magazine next year,focus on subscriptions,digital,June 202314 Google,An update on Canadas Bill C-18 and our Search and News products,June 202315 Meta,Changes to News Availability on Our Platforms in Canada,June 202316 Reuters,Exclusive:Metas C

167、anada news ban fails to dent Facebook usage,August 202317 dentsu,Dentsu Partners With Six Top Audio Destinations To Measure Attention In Advertising In First-Of-Its-Kind Study With Lumen Research,August 202318 Spotify,Spotifys AI Voice Translation Pilot Means Your Favorite Podcasters Might Be Heard

168、in Your Native Language,September 202319 Box Office Mojo by IMDBPro,retrieved October 10,20 Gower Street Analytics,September Fall:Lowest Grossing Month of 2023 Closes Best Quarter of the Decade at the Global Box Office,October 202321 Gower Street Analytics,Gower Street Analytics Increases 2023 Globa

169、l Box Office Projection to$34.5 Billion,September 202331Global Ad Spend Forecasts|December 2023About dentsu Dentsu is the network designed for whats next,helping clients predict and plan for disruptive future opportunities in the sustainable economy.Taking a people-centered approach to business tran

170、sformation,dentsu combines Japanese innovation with a diverse,global perspective to drive client growth and to shape Lead authors:Dan Calladine Head of Media Futures,Media,dentsuAurlien Loyer Global Thought Leadership Director,Media,dentsuFor further information about this report please contact:DATA INQUIRIES:Lin LiuResearch Director,Media,PRESS INQUIRIES:John MayneHead of Global External Communications,dentsu 32 2023 dentsu|all rights reservedGlobalAd SpendForecastsDecember 2023