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1、Global Outlook for Air Transport A local sweet spotDecember 20232 Global Outlook for Air Transport A local sweet spotContentsGlobal Outlook for Air Transport A local sweet spot 31.Long-term trends are becoming less supportive 42.Air transportation is back,but the pace of growth will slow 10Air passe

2、nger traffic 10Air cargo traffic 143.Airline Financial Performance 16Overview 16Revenue development 18Capital providers 18Aircraft 19Labor 20Fuel 20Regions 21Risks 233 Global Outlook for Air Transport A local sweet spotGlobal Outlook for Air Transport A local sweet spotMain takeaways:The global long

3、-term trends that propelled the 20th centurys unparalleled economic achievements are if not in reverse,certainly becoming less supportive.Much of the 20th centurys success was enabled by the expanded use of fossil fuels.That economic model has passed its zenith.It will take a successful energy trans

4、ition to set the world on a new path towards sustained and sustainable growth and better economic outcomes for all.2023 has been a year when air transportation very nearly returned to its pre-pandemic pace of activity,and a year of renewed financial profitability for the industry.In many ways,2023 i

5、s likely to be a local sweet spot for the industry,as the same pace of growth and financial recovery is unlikely to be matched in 2024 and beyond.Industry-wide passenger traffic,measured in revenue passenger-kilometers(RPKs),grew by 40.1%year-on-year(YoY)through September 2023 and reached 92.9%of pr

6、e-pandemic levels.All regions,except Asia Pacific,are expected to reach or surpass their 2019 traffic levels in 2023.In the long run,global passenger traffic looks set to double by 2040.The cargo sector continued to face challenges in 2023,with a slowdown in demand due to macro-economic headwinds an

7、d a slowdown in global trade.Despite a decline in cargo tonne-kilometers(CTKs)from 2022 levels,signs of improvement emerged in the second half of 2023.Regional variations were observed,with Latin America achieving annual growth in CTKs,and North America and Africa surpassing their pre-Covid levels.O

8、verall industry CTKs are expected to remain below 2022 levels in 2023,with a forecast 4.5%growth in 2024.The industry is returning to profitability in 2023,only three years after the historic loss of nearly USD 140 billion in 2020.This is a stunning performance and a testimony to the industrys resil

9、ience,adaptability,and hard work.Total airline revenue is expected to reach 107%of 2019 earnings,with operating profits of USD 41 billion.The net profit forecast for the whole industry this year is USD 23.3 billion.While this is a positive development,the levels of profitability are far from being e

10、xceptional.For some perspective,nearly half this amount was realized by one single oil company in just the third quarter of this year,while a large technology company nearly matched our full-year industry profits in that single quarter.Air transportations net profit margin is a slim 2.6%in 2023,comp

11、ared to 11%and 22%for the companies just mentioned,respectively.Airlines profits in 2023 equate to USD 5.44 per passenger less than a cup of cold brew coffee in Geneva.While stunningly resilient,our industry is still lacking in robustness.Passengers around the world have clearly voted with their wal

12、lets,showing the world that they deem air transportation necessary,even in the face of record-high jet fuel prices in relation to crude oil prices.Passenger satisfaction is as high as 82%in a survey of 8,000 air travelers 1,and 91%say that air transportation is necessary 2.Our world needs to be conn

13、ected,and air transportation is a necessary and indispensable form of connectivity.The top line development in our industry shows how important air transportation is,and the industry has been able to meet expectations,bouncing back so rapidly from a near total halt.However,the industry remains the w

14、eakest link in the aviation value chain and the expected net profits also reveal its vulnerabilities.In the short term,airlines need to improve their profit margins and strengthen their balance sheets after the pandemic.In the longer term,ensuring air transportations access to renewable energy sourc

15、es will allow our industry to play its full part in creating a growing global economy that is sustainable,inclusive,and equitable.This semi-annual report takes a broad look at developments in the airline industry,the context in which it is operating,and the challenges it is facing.1 IATA 2023 Global

16、 Passenger Survey(GPS).2 IATA Passenger Trends and Insights 2023.The IATA passenger insights survey was conducted 26 April 26-3 May 2023 with a sample of 4,700 recent travelers.It covers 11 markets(Australia,Canada,Chile,France,Germany,India,Japan,Singapore,UAE,US,and UK).Sample size in each market

17、was 500 apart from Chile,Japan,Singapore and UAE where it was 300.This Is Motif Ltd prepared the questionnaire and analysis based on data collection and tabulation by Dynata http:/4 Global Outlook for Air Transport A local sweet spot1.Long-term trends are becoming less supportiveTaking the long view

18、,over up to 100 years,it must be said that the 20th century arguably delivered historys most stunning progress in terms of improved economic outcomes globally.The number of persons living in poverty fell dramatically and global income distribution became more equitable than ever before.This was poss

19、ible thanks to many factors,including the radical advances in transportation and communications which brought down the cost of transporting goods and services around the globe,and facilitated the dissemination of knowledge and ideas.In the wake of the Second World War,the rules-based international w

20、orld order that emerged along with enduring peace provided the backdrop against which cross-border activity could flourish.A further enabling trend was the spread of democracies around the world and the economic policies frequently associated with this phenomenon(Chart 1).From where we currently sta

21、nd in the 21st century,many of the favorable conditions that contributed to the past centurys success seem to be waning.Unhelpful long-term trends are not necessarily driving the business cycle,and economic performance can still both overwhelm and underwhelm at any given point in time.However,we wil

22、l be able to assess the business cycles oscillations with greater clarity if put into the context of the emerging structural trends.Political regimesWhile not an absolute determinant,economic growth is more likely to be sustained under democracy than under autocracy 3.The share of electoral and libe

23、ral democracies in all the worlds political regimes was as high as 54.3%in 2004,for instance.It then declined progressively to 50.5%in 2022.Closed and electoral autocracies made up the remaining 49.5%of the worlds political regimes.ConflictsThe Uppsala Conflict Data Program reports that 2022 saw the

24、 highest number of violent conflicts since the Second World War.State-based conflicts number 56,up from a 2010 low of 30.The global economic impact of violence was put at USD 14.4 trillion in 2020 by the Institute for Economics&Peace 4.Applying the observed increase in state-based conflicts to this

25、number,the cost is likely to have exceeded USD 15 trillion in 2022,or 15%of 2022 nominal world GDP.In addition to the cost inflicted upon warring nations,there is also the opportunity cost of military spending.World military spending rose to USD 2.2 trillion in 2022,adjusted for inflation,the highes

26、t level ever recorded in SIPRI data,and equivalent to 2.2%of global GDP 5.That is money that could have covered more than half of the estimated worldwide annual clean energy investments needed to deliver the energy transition,according to the International Energy Agency,not to mention the benefits i

27、t could have brought to schools,health systems,infrastructure,and many more productive areas 6.Chart 1:Political regimesSource:OWID based on Lhrmann et al.(2018)80%60%40%20%0%100%1900Closed autocraciesElectoral autocraciesElectoral democraciesLiberal democracies19201910193019401950197019901960198020

28、00201020223 Patrick A.Imam and Jonathan R.W.Temple,“Political Institutions and Output Collapses”,IMF Working Paper WP/23/36,February 2023.4 Institute for Economics&Peace,Business&Peace Report 2021:Peace:A Good Predictor of Economic Success,Sydney,May 2021.5 Nan Tian et.Al.,“Trends in world military

29、expenditure,2022”,SIPRI Fact Sheet,Stockholm International Peace Research Institute,April 2023.6“Net Zero by 2050”,IEA,May 2021.5 Global Outlook for Air Transport A local sweet spot1.Long-term trends are becoming less supportiveNavel gazingThese evolutions will as a rule promote more inward-looking

30、economic policies or force such behavior upon economies suffering conflict.Signs that this might be happening can be found in the decline in the real(inflation adjusted)world exports-to-GDP ratio(Chart 2).This ratio peaked at 103%in 2008 and fell back to 98%in 2022.World trade can of course slow for

31、 many reasons other than the direct impacts of political regimes and violent conflict.Trade fluctuates in response to changes in the composition of trade,slower GDP growth,the nature of trade regimes,and evolutions in global supply chains,for instance.These factors too though are themselves often in

32、fluenced by trends in political regimes and armed conflicts.It is noteworthy in this context that the IMF counts nearly 3000 new trade barriers imposed globally in 2022 a threefold increase from 1000 such measures taken in 2019 7.Turning from trade to capital,the flows of foreign direct investments(

33、FDI)have been on a downward trend since 2007 and declined by 24%in 2022 compared to 2021(Chart 3).Both mergers and acquisitions(M&A)and greenfield investment projects contribute to the weaker trend in this form of cross-border activity.Moreover,M&A activity is fairly concentrated in a handful of cou

34、ntries.Nearly half of total M&A activity in 2022 concerned only five advanced economies:the UK,the US,Australia,the Netherlands,and Sweden.Some of these developments have of course been influenced by the Covid pandemic.In the general trend towards more inward-looking economic policies,the pandemic d

35、isrupted supply chains and exacerbated the fragmentation that we can observe in both trade and cross-border investment.Chart 3:Global foreign direct investment flows,USD billion(left)and%of GDP(right)Source:OECD Global foreign direct investment flows20001500100050002500Percent of GDP(RHS)4.0%3.0%2.5

36、%3.5%2.0%1.5%0%4.5%200520092010200720082006201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022Percent of GDP(RHS)Chart 2:Real World Exports-to-GDP ratio,indexed(2015=100)Sources:WTO Stats and World Bank World Development Indicators Note:The ratio is the world export volume index over world GDP in const

37、ant 2015 US dollars index100%90%70%60%80%50%40%30%110%2008103%202298%19601980198519701975196519901995200020052010201520207“The High Cost of Global Economic Fragmentation”,IMF,August 2023.6 Global Outlook for Air Transport A local sweet spot1.Long-term trends are becoming less supportiveChart 4:Globa

38、l working age population,%of total population Source:OECD65%64%63%62%60%59%61%58%57%56%66%19501980197019601990200020102020Fewer of usSimultaneously,the world is seeing a declining rate of growth in the working-age population(Chart 4).The average global GDP growth rate since the 1970s,when the workin

39、g population hit a trough,has been around 3%.All other things being equal,a drop in the working-age population would point to a lower GDP growth rate going forward.Of course,other things are rarely equal,and technological progress,coupled with the drop in transportation costs which accelerated the d

40、issemination of new technologies,allowed output growth to outpace population growth since the 1970s.Total factor productivity,or the ratio of output over the combined inputs of capital and labor,as well as technology and innovation and the resulting impacts on efficiency,has flattened out since the

41、Global Financial Crisis and is weakening in mature economies(Chart 5).In this,we can see signs of the weaker investment and working population trends.Declining potential GDP growthAll this points to lower potential GDP growth.The US Congressional Budget Office estimates the US potential growth rate

42、at 1.8%at the end of 2023,down from 6%in 1952(Chart 6).The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace expects Chinas long-term growth rate too will be situated in the vicinity of 2%8.In the European Union,the potential growth rate is likely lower,at around 1.5%,while in Japan it is probably lower st

43、ill,at around 1%9.Globally,long-term growth might be just over 2%annually 10.That is most unfortunate because of the many challenges that lie ahead,and none of those are greater than that of climate change.Climate changeClimate change itself will likely weigh on the potential GDP growth rate.Worseni

44、ng climate conditions looks set to reduce the number of hours worked as well as the effectiveness of labor 11.Natural disasters will bring infrastructure costs in their wake.As many as 376 million persons have been forcibly displaced since 2008 because of climate events and natural disasters,with a

45、record 32.6 million people in 2022 alone,according to the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre.IEP,the Institute for Economics&Peace,predicts that 1.2 billion people could be displaced globally by 2050 due to climate change and natural disasters.The likely associated increased social tensions wil

46、l only reinforce the already discernable trends of more political and economic fragmentation,capping economic growth rates further.1051009511019951999200320072011201520192023Chart 5:Total factor productivity(index,1995=100)Source:Total economy database5%6%1%2%3%4%0%7%19505560657075808590952000051015

47、202520Chart 6:US real potential GDP growth rateSource:Federal Reserve Bank of St.Louis,US Congressional Budget Office8 Michael Pettis,“Can Chinas Long-Term Growth Rate Exceed 2-3%?”,Carnegie Endowment for International Peace,April 2023.9 Arsov and Watson,“Potential Growth in Advanced Economies”,Rese

48、rve Bank of Australia,December 2019.10“Falling Long-Term Growth Prospects:Trends,Expectations,and Policies”,World Bank,March 2023.11 Dasgupta et.Al.,“Effects of climate change on combined labour productivity and supply:an empirical,multi-model study”,The Lancet Planetary Health,July 2021.7 Global Ou

49、tlook for Air Transport A local sweet spot1.Long-term trends are becoming less supportiveRestricted policy spaceWith greater relevance to the current business cycle,this situation could have been mitigated by expansionary fiscal and monetary policies.The room for further fiscal expansion is limited

50、given that total global debt(household,corporate,and government)rose to a new record high of USD 307 trillion in the first half of 2023,according to the Institute of International Finance,bringing the global debt-to-GDP ratio to 336%12.General government debt has fallen somewhat in advanced economie

51、s,to 112%of GDP in 2022,from 123%in 2020,though still higher than the 104%of GDP recorded in 2019 13.In the US,the ratio was 121%in 2022,higher than in France,Spain,and Portugal,and only 23 percentage points lower than Italys 144%.The number of countries in debt distress in the world has doubled fro

52、m 2015 levels,a problem that could point to local,if not global,financial instability 14.Chinas room for fiscal expansion is also limited,not because of a high general government debt to GDP ratio,77%in 2022,but because total government debt is likely around 140%of GDP 15.Moreover,Chinas tax system

53、depends upon an investment-led growth model,reliant on property taxes,that is no longer delivering the necessary revenue.Tax reform should be addressed,but this would need to entail new taxes on households and consumers,in turn limiting a more consumption-led economic growth model.Given the global d

54、ebt burden,it is most likely that global taxation will continue to increase going forward.If global fiscal expansion is limited,it could have been possible to expect monetary policy to be more accommodative.However,the combination of tight labor markets and sticky prices is likely to keep nominal in

55、terest rates relatively high for the foreseeable future.This is a departure from the unusual low-interest-rate era that followed the Global Financial Crisis and that closed with the US Federal Reserves first interest-rate hike in this cycle in March 2022.Real,inflation-adjusted,policy rates are stil

56、l low in most countries,given the relatively high rates of inflation,notably in the US and in Europe(Chart 7).Financial conditions have more room to ease in China,for instance,particularly given Chinas 0%inflation rate as of September 2023 16.However,all the trends discussed here point to structural

57、ly higher inflation than the three-decades-long low inflation environment the world experienced broadly since the 1990s.12“Global Debt Monitor”,IIF,September 2023.13“Fiscal Monitor”,IMF,October 2023.14“Debt Dynamics”,IMF Annual Report 2022.15 Quinn and Wright,“The Myth of Chinas Fiscal Space”,Rhodiu

58、m Group,August 2023.16 “Global Financial Stability Report:Financial and Climate Policies for a High-Interest-Rate Era”,IMF,October 2023.Policy Rate,US Federal ReserveUS Inflation RateImplied Real Interest Rate15%20%-5%0%5%10%-10%25%197019951975198019851990200020052010201520202023Chart 7:US nominal p

59、olicy-and real interest rates,and inflation(CPI)Source:MacroBond8 Global Outlook for Air Transport A local sweet spot1.Long-term trends are becoming less supportiveGoing greenAs uncertainty increases and the economic and political landscape becomes more fragmented,risk appetite will fall,and money w

60、ill flow to relatively safer havens.Unless the world loses faith in the US economy,and abstracting from fluctuations in the business cycle,the US dollar affectionately called“the greenback”is most likely to continue to be the worlds preferred safe-haven asset.This will tend to increase the value of

61、the US dollar versus most other currencies.Trade weighted and inflation adjusted,the US dollar is now around 25%stronger versus its trading partners currencies than in 2010(Chart 8).This too tends to have a dampening effect on global growth in most regions.1001201201304060708090503014020102011201220

62、13201920142015201620172018202020212022BrazilEuro AreaJapanTurkeyUnited KingdomUnited StatesSwitzerlandChart 8:Real Effective Exchange Rates(2010=100)Sources:BIS,Macrobond9 Global Outlook for Air Transport A local sweet spot1.Long-term trends are becoming less supportiveSet me free 17 In sum,the long

63、er-term and structural trends that we see in the global economy point to reduced cross-border activity,a lower GDP growth potential,and greater economic and political fragmentation.The associated more inward-looking economic policies will likely lead to structurally higher inflation and nominal inte

64、rest rates.Tax burdens are destined to grow because of the lack of economic growth and high debt obligations.Conflict and climate issues will heighten the appeal of safe-haven assets such as the US dollar.Such an outlook begs the question of whether the world will be able to deliver a successful ene

65、rgy transition and replace most of the fossil fuels used today with renewable fuels.Indeed,the IEAs estimate of USD 4 trillion per year of annual investments in renewable energy that such an outcome would necessitate looks vastly more challenging in a low-growth economy.Nevertheless,it is possible.T

66、echnological change could surprise on the upside and progress could come more rapidly than currently expected.Policies could become more supportive of the energy transition,and capital could reallocate more swiftly than anticipated.All stakeholders need to unite in the effort,including the oil and g

67、as sector.Today only the smallest of fractions of the oil and gas industrys recent unprecedented cash flow is allocated to clean energy technologies,while dividends and share buybacks have reached record highs(Chart 9).Yet it is precisely the energy transition that could reverse the unhelpful long-t

68、erm trends and propel the global economy into a new era of improved economic outcomes for all.A world set free of its energy constraint would be something utterly unprecedented.Abundant,sustainable,and cheap energy accessible to all would have a profound and transformational impact on politics and e

69、conomics in the world.To be sure,new challenges would arise.But the energy transition is the one overarching objective that all our world leaders,regulators,and all of us must pursue with single-minded focus,without compromise,and with unwavering persistence.17 The Supremes,“You Keep Me Hangin On”,1

70、967.Oil and gas capital expenditureLow-carbon capital expenditureDividends plus buybacks minus issuancesNet debt repaid80%60%40%20%0%100%200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022Chart 9:Distribution of cash spending by the oil and gas industrySource:World Energy Investment,2023,IE

71、A 202310 Global Outlook for Air Transport A local sweet spot2.Air transportation is back,but the pace of growth will slowAir passenger traffic Recent development and outlookGlobal demand for air travel remained strong in 2023,with the industry steadily approaching 2019 levels of passenger traffic.Fo

72、llowing a significant 64.9%YoY upturn in 2022,industry-wide passenger traffic,measured in revenue passenger-kilometers(RPKs),surged by 40.1%in the first nine months of 2023,compared to the same period in the previous year.This strong performance was reflected across all regions,with North American c

73、arriers leading the recovery,benefiting from an early reopening and robust domestic demand.The reopening of Chinese markets in January also played a pivotal role in accelerating global passenger traffic recovery in 2023,particularly reviving travel in the Asia Pacific region(Chart 10).The passenger

74、load factor(PLF),a measure of airline seating capacity utilization,has steadily improved since its low point in 2020,converging to pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2022.The global PLF reached 82.3%during the first nine months of 2023,which is broadly in line with the load factor achieved during the

75、 same period in 2019.This underscores the delicate balance between demand and capacity that airlines maintain as air travel recovers globally.During this period,airlines in Africa,the Middle East,and Latin America surpassed their respective pre-pandemic PLFs,indicating enhanced operational efficienc

76、y for the carriers in these regions(Chart11).Chart 10:RPKs per airline region of registration,year-to-date%annual change(January September)Sources:IATA Sustainability and Economics,IATA Monthly StatisticsYear-to-date growthYear-to-date growth vs 2019104.9%-15.8%44.4%-8.5%22.9%37.3%18.8%16.9%40.1%-5.

77、7%-3.2%-0.3%1.4%-7.1%Asia PacificAfricaEuropeMiddle EastLatin AmericaNorth AmericaIndustry20192022202372.0%85.5%82.7%85.1%82.9%70.9%80.4%81.5%83.1%77.8%73.2%84.3%82.9%84.7%82.3%82.0%69.5%79.9%76.7%74.2%80.3%Asia PacificAfricaEuropeMiddle EastLatin AmericaNorth AmericaIndustryChart 11:Passenger Load

78、Factor by airline region of registration,year-to-date%share of available seat-kilometers(ASKs)(January September)Sources:IATA Sustainability and Economics,IATA Monthly Statistics11 Global Outlook for Air Transport A local sweet spot2.Air transportation is back,but the pace of growth will slowPent-up

79、 passenger demand continued to boost domestic air travel in 2023,sustaining growth even after surpassing pre-pandemic levels in April.The recovery in domestic traffic was significantly helped by Chinas reopening,marking the end of its zero-Covid policy which had been in place for the previous three

80、years.As Chinas domestic market contributes over 25%to global domestic RPKs,the reopening had a substantial impact on restoring global domestic RPKs,which stood 5.0%above 2019 levels in September 2023(Chart 12).Despite the slower reopening of international markets,international RPKs also experienced

81、 rapid expansion in2023,growing to a level that in September 2023 sits only 7%below the equivalent figure for 2019.As a result,total passenger traffic,including both domestic and international across the industry,was just 2.7%below the levels observed in September 2019(Chart 12).A complete recovery

82、appears imminent,contingent upon the restoration of international connectivity to and from the Asia Pacific region.Other factors,including the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East and their associated potential to restrict airspace and impact on international operations,will continue to influence the

83、 evolution of international traffic.Air passenger traffic across the regions has nearly returned to pre-pandemic levels.Globally,the number of air passengers is projected to recover fully to 2019 levels by the end of 2024(Chart 13).All regions are expected to reach their pre-pandemic passenger level

84、s by the end of 2023,except for Asia Pacific,where full recovery is anticipated in early 2024,as the gradual ramp-up of airline operations and the return of tourism are poised to drive further growth in this region.Chart 13:Regional passenger totals,%share of 2019 levels87%55%82%85%87%95%74%108%94%1

85、02%104%100%108%99%109%110%108%112%106%113%109%115%124%115%122%112%119%119%AfricaAsia-PacificEuropeMiddle EastNorth AmericaLatin America&CaribbeanWorld2022202320242025DomesticInternationalTotal-20%0%-80%-60%-40%-100%20%2020JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFeb

86、MarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSep202120222023Chart 12:Industry RPKs,%YoY change compared to 2019 levelsSources:IATA Sustainability and Economics,IATA Monthly Statistics Sources:IATA Sustainability and Economics,Tourism Economics (September 2023 release)Table 1:Air passenger f

87、orecast summarySources:IATA Sustainability and Economics,Tourism Economics (September 2023 release)RegionRecovery yearCAGR(2019-2040)Additional passengers by 2040,millionsAfrica20233.6%169.7Asia Pacific20244.5%2,536.8Europe20232.2%701.4Middle East20233.6%264.1North America20232.2%558.5Latin America&

88、Caribbean20232.8%304.0World20243.4%3,923.012 Global Outlook for Air Transport A local sweet spot2.Air transportation is back,but the pace of growth will slow86420109753120192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038203920402041UP:Air passenger demand benefits from m

89、ore favourable macroeconomic conditionsDOWN:Weaker macroeconomic conditions inflict lasting damageBaselineOver a longer horizon,the Asia Pacific region is likely to see the most rapid growth in passenger traffic among all regions.An annual increase of 4.5%in the number of passengers is forecast for

90、the region between 2019 and 2040,bringing the regional total to over 4 billion in 2040,at which point the region would make up more than half of global passenger demand(Table 1).India,in particular,is expected to contribute significantly to this growth,with a forecast annual passenger growth rate of

91、 6%over the same horizon,resulting in an additional half a billion air passengers per year over the next 20 years.At a global level,air passenger growth will continue to increase,but at a slower pace compared to that experienced during the past 3 years.Between 2023 and 2040,the number of air passeng

92、ers is forecast to increase by 4.2%annually.This would be a radical slowdown from the exceptional 36%annual growth rate seen over the past three years,as markets emerged from the depths of the Covid crisis.Having restored traffic to pre-pandemic levels,this deceleration will nevertheless allow the n

93、umber of industry-wide air passenger journeys to more than double from the 2019 level,to reach 7.8 billion by 2040.There is of course a considerable range of uncertainty around any such long-term forecast.On the upside,air passenger demand could benefit from more favorable macro-economic conditions

94、such as normalizing supply chains and lower inflation rates,allowing for an earlier unwinding of the current monetary policy tightening.Conversely,on the downside,risks prevail regarding the strength of the business cycle and the impact and extent of the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East.These cou

95、ld cap the available airspace and curtail growth in international traffic,especially on routes between Europe and Asia Pacific(Chart 14).Chart 14:Global air passenger journeys,billionSources:IATA Sustainability and Economics,Tourism Economics(September 2023 release)13 Global Outlook for Air Transpor

96、t A local sweet spot2.Air transportation is back,but the pace of growth will slowConnectivity and contribution to the wider economyAir transport is a necessary and important contributor to global economic development.The returning connectivity between countries and cities enabling the flow of goods,

97、people,capital,technology,and ideas,supports the global business cycle and helps mitigate the many mounting clouds on the horizon(Table 2).The Covid pandemic brought an abrupt and substantial decline in connectivity in 2020,with the number of unique city pairs falling by more than 28%and eliminating

98、 almost 6,000 routes.The recovery since that time has been more subdued,as travel restrictions were removed gradually and unequally around the world.Despite the observed recovery in the number of city pair routes,it is important to note that the frequency of service on those routes is slower to be r

99、estored to pre-pandemic levels,and the return of capacity will lag the recovery in the absolute number of city-pair connectionsChart 15:IATA Global Air Connectivity Index,Jan 2020 Sep 2023,2019=100Source:IATA Connectivity Index,using data from OAGDomesticInternational89.597.58010020406001202020JanFe

100、bMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSep202120222023Worldwide airline industry20192020202120222023e2024fUnique city pairs 21,736 15,621 16,846 19,665 21,985 22,976 compared to 201330%-10%-5%6%12%10%Real price,U

101、SD/RTK 2018USD 77.6 73.1 77.6 77.2 70.2 66.8 compared to 2013-31%-35%-31%-31%-38%-41%Value of trade carried,USD billion 6,482 5,961 7,570 8,486 8,052 8,025%change over year-2.7%-8.0%27.0%12.1%-5.1%-0.3%Table 2:The wider economic contribution of air transportSource:IATA Sustainability and EconomicsIA

102、TAs connectivity index measures scheduled passenger capacity weighted by the economic scale of destinations served(Chart 15).International connectivity has recovered to 89.5%of pre-pandemic levels and domestic connectivity to 97.5%,an increase of 12 percentage points compared to 2022.Connectivity ha

103、s been impacted by the restrictions related to flying to and from Russia.At the global level,the effect is limited but regionally and for specific trading partners and key markets,traffic has been disrupted in a more substantial manner.Overall and following the reopening of the Chinese market,the in

104、ternational recovery in air connectivity is expected to improve further in 2024.14 Global Outlook for Air Transport A local sweet spot2.Air transportation is back,but the pace of growth will slowFollowing a robust performance during the pandemic and especially in 2021,global air cargo demand faced c

105、onsiderable challenges in 2022,including a slowdown in global trade and economic growth,the war in Ukraine,high inflation in key markets,and elevated global oil prices,all of which exerted significant downward pressure on cargo markets.Industry-wide cargo tonne-kilometers(CTKs)started to contract in

106、 early 2022,and fell every month until the middle of 2023.Although trade and exports have remained sluggish,CTKs have managed to rebound since then,improving from the double-digit declines earlier this year to almost 2%YoY growth as of September(Chart 16).Cargo capacity,measured in available cargo t

107、onne kilometers(ACTKs),nevertheless expanded consistently since the beginning of 2023,driven mostly by the resurgence of Chart 17:Recovery trends in international air cargo traffic and capacity,total international cargo by business type,2019-2023 Q1-Q3Chart 16:Seasonally adjusted global ACTK and glo

108、bal CTK,billionsSource:IATA Connectivity Index,using data from OAGSources:IATA Sustainability and Economics,IATA Monthly StatisticsPreightersDedicated FreightersPassenger Belly250300350400200150100500500Milions45052%67%64%64%41%60%61%54%51%49%5%41%13%26%10%29%59%7%30%16%20%13%20%48%220.7195.7236.721

109、7425.3329.2370.5387.1311.9Cargo Tonne Kilometers(CTKs)20192020202120222023 Q1-Q3 Available Cargo Tonne Kilometers(ACTKs)20192020202120222023 Q1-Q3 15462%38%Global ACTKGlobal CTK4535251005550403020155199019931996199920022005200820112014201720232020passenger aircraft belly-hold capacity on internation

110、al routes.Consequently,global air cargo capacity surpassed the pre-Covid level in April 2023.As of September,industry wide ACTKs exceeded its pre-pandemic level by 4%(Chart17).Passenger aircraft belly-hold capacity as a share of total ACTKs has risen to 49%year-to-date(YTD)in 2023,from a low of 20%i

111、n 2020(Chart 17).Over the past two years,the capacity for international cargo transported in the belly space of passenger aircraft has risen markedly,nearly doubling its proportion relative to the diminishing role of dedicated cargo aircraft.In the meantime,the temporary conversion of passenger airc

112、raft to cargo carriers(termed“preighters”)has been phased out.The incoming capacity in the belly hold of passenger aircraft has caused a decrease in the cargo load factors(CLF)on international routes.The downward trajectory of CLFs will likely stabilize once passenger and cargo traffic levels realig

113、n with pre-pandemic norms.Air cargo traffic 15 Global Outlook for Air Transport A local sweet spot2.Air transportation is back,but the pace of growth will slowAmong the top five route areas,which represented 75%of international CTKs in 2019,three remained resilient through September 2023.The Asia Pa

114、cific-North America,Europe-North America,and Asia Pacific-Middle East route areas consistently maintained CTKs above their pre-pandemic levels in the first half of 2023.This sustained performance underscores their resilience in the face of broader market challenges.In contrast,reflecting the slowdow

115、n in regional economies as well as geopolitical conflicts,the Asia Pacific-Europe and the within Asia Pacific markets remained below their 2019 CTK levels throughout the January to September 2023 period(Chart 18).Chart 19:Year-to-date(Q1-Q3)2023 CTKs compared to the same period in 2022 and 2019Chart

116、 18:International CTKs by route area top 5 route areas(indexed,2019=100)Sources:IATA Sustainability and Economics,IATA Monthly StatisticsSources:IATA Sustainability and Economics,IATA Monthly StatisticsNotes:Rankings are based on the route area shares of 2019 international CTKs(%shares are provided

117、in parentheses)-10%-15%10%0%5%-5%Asia PacificAfricaEuropeMiddle EastLatin Americaand CaribbeanNorth AmericaIndustry-7.2%-13.7%-3.2%9.2%1.1%-2.4%-3.3%-1.9%-8.0%6.2%-3.1%-8.2%-5.3%-4.7%Q1-Q3 2023 vs.Q1-Q3 2022Q1-Q3 2023 vs.Q1-Q3 2019Asia Pacific-North America(Rank 1:26.5%)Asia Pacific-Europe(Rank 2:19

118、.0%)Europe-North America(Rank 3:14.9%)Within Asia Pacific(Rank 4:7.4%)Asia Pacific-Middle East(Rank 5:6.9%)6040180140160120100802020202120222023Industry CTKs fell short of the pre-Covid level by 4.7%(Chart19).Latin America is the only region to achieve growth in YTD CTKs compared to 2022,even though

119、 the regions cargo demand stands 2.4%below 2019 levels.Compared to 2019,the regions of North America and Africa were the only ones to see higher CTKs on a YTD basis in 2023.16 Global Outlook for Air Transport A local sweet spot3.Airline Financial PerformanceOverview Despite the rapid growth in passe

120、nger demand and the absence of travel restrictions,the aviation industry is still grappling with the aftermath of the pandemic,during which it recorded a historic loss of almost USD 140 billion.In the face of many challenges,including wars,oil price volatility,elevated interest rates,and staff short

121、ages,which all weigh on its financial performance,we nevertheless expect a return to profitability in 2023.This is a remarkable feat,realized in an equally remarkable short period of time.Data published since our mid-year financial forecast show a stronger than previously anticipated industry-wide f

122、inancial performance.The better-than-expected results have been seen most notably in North America,Europe and Asia Pacific.At the industry level,we currently estimate the overall net post-tax profit to reach USD 23.3 billion in 2023,with a slim operating profit margin of 4.5%(Chart 20).Further recov

123、ery in international travel in Asia Pacific underpins our expectations for 2024.At the global level,the industry is expected to generate a net profit of USD 25.7 billion next year,with a still modest 2.7%net profit margin.The key financial figures can be found in Table 3 below.02040-20-40-60-140-120

124、-100-80-1606005%10%-5%-10%-15%-35%-30%-25%-20%-40%15%US$bnEBIT marginNet post-tax profit2000200220042006200820102012201420162018202020222024fChart 20:Global airline profitabilitySources:IIATA Sustainability and Economics,The Airline AnalystChart 21:Global airline revenueSources:IATA Sustainability a

125、nd Economics,The Airline AnalystIndustry wide,total airline revenue is forecast to recover to around 107%of the pre-Covid level in 2023(Chart 21).Air passenger revenue will climb to around USD 642 billion and be partly offset by somewhat lower air cargo revenue,following the exceptional cargo revenu

126、es of the past couple of years.Even so,at around USD 135 billion it will still be some 34%higher than its pre-Covid level.2021:61%of 20192022:88%of 20192023:107%of 2019Cargo revenuePassenger+Other revenue60070080050010020030040009001000US$bn201520192018201720162020202120222023e2024f2024:115%of 20191

127、7 Global Outlook for Air Transport Highly Resilient,Less Robust3.Airline financial performance A global GDP growth rate of 3.0%this year and 2.9%in 2024,broadly in line with the long-run average rate of growth.Inflation pressures easing gradually throughout 2023 and 2024,following a peak in 2022.Rea

128、l interest rates,though now positive,should remain relatively low in a long-term perspective after many years of negative real interest rates.The USD is expected to hold its strength or strengthen further versus most other currencies.Labor markets are tight and unemployment rates will climb only slo

129、wly from the current low levels.An average crude oil price of around USD 85 per barrel in 2023 and USD 85-90 per barrel in 2024.The jet fuel crack spread is expected to narrow but stay above its long-term historical average.The passenger and fleet growth assumptions are consistent with the informati

130、on laid out in the sections above,and highly dependent on the continued strong recovery in the China market.The outlook also depends critically on the evolution of the wars in the Middle East and Eastern Europe,which we assume will not spread.The key assumptions underpinning our financial forecast i

131、nclude:Worldwide airline industry20192020202120222023e2024fSpend on air transport,USD billion 876 396 528 763 936 1 008%change over year3.6%-54.8%33.2%44.6%22.6%7.7%global GDP1.0%0.5%0.5%0.7%0.9%0.9%Real return fare,USD/pax(2018USD)315 216 231 284 288 283 compared to 2013-36%-56%-53%-42%-42%-43%Real

132、 freight rate,USD/kg1.792.773.493.732.532.00 compared to 2013-19%25%57%68%14%-10%RPKs,billion 8,688 2,974 3,623 5,974 8,271 9,082%change over year4.1%-65.8%21.8%64.9%38.4%9.8%CTKs,billion 254 229 272 250 241 252%change over year-3.2%-9.9%18.8%-8.1%-3.7%4.5%World GDP growth(real),%2.5%-3.5%6.3%3.5%3.

133、0%2.9%World trade growth,%0.3%-5.1%9.8%3.0%0.8%3.3%Aircraft departures,million 38.916.920.127.836.840.1%change over year2.1%-56.5%18.5%38.4%32.6%9.0%ASKs,%change over year3.3%-56.6%18.7%40.2%33.0%8.9%Passenger load factor,%ASK82.6%65.2%66.9%78.7%82.0%82.6%Cargo load factor,%AFTK46.8%53.8%56.1%49.9%4

134、3.2%43.9%Weight load factor,%ATK70.4%70.0%59.5%61.7%66.9%67.7%Breakeven load factor,%ATK66.4%66.4%76.7%67.0%65.8%64.6%Table 3:Key air finance figuresSource:IATA Sustainability and Economics18 Global Outlook for Air Transport Highly Resilient,Less Robust3.AirlinefinancialperformanceRevenue developmen

135、tIn dollar terms,passenger revenues are projected to reach USD 642 billion in 2023,a remarkable increase of 47%from 2022,and exceeding 2019 levels by 7%.Reflecting capacity constraints,including delays in aircraft deliveries worldwide,the passenger load factor will likely increase to 82%this year,br

136、inging about elevated yields across most markets.Passenger revenue growth is expected to slow markedly in 2024,to 12%,but from the much higher 2023 base.We anticipate still strong passenger demand,half of which will come from Asia Pacific.With capacity continuing to return in 2024,especially in Asia

137、 Pacific,growth in yields is set to decelerate.In 2023,cargo revenue is expected to decline by 35%YoY,driven by both lower demand and falling freight rates.North America and Europe are the regions particularly affected by lower demand.Cargo capacity is returning as more passenger aircraft re-enter s

138、ervice,while freight rates are impacted by competition from lower maritime cargo rates.We expect cargo revenue to continue to decline,and the split between passenger and cargo revenue to revert to the pre-pandemic shares of 88%and 12%respectively.The forecast increases in cargo demand(CTK)of 4.5%wil

139、l be fully offset by a further erosion of freight rates.Freight rates are nevertheless most likely to remain above the pre-pandemic levels.Capital providers Historically,the air transport industry has struggled to deliver the returns which equity investors expect to receive for risking their capital

140、.Put another way,the return on invested capital(ROIC)has typically been lower than the weighted average cost of capital(WACC)in the air transport industry.While this holds true for the industry as a whole,it is not necessarily the case in each region.In the four years prior to the pandemic,we estima

141、te that equity investors in Europe and North America did receive returns above the cost of capital,helping the industrys apparent move towards a more sustainable financial future.The pandemic changed all of that,plunging the industry into a record loss in 2020 and causing a significant deterioration

142、 across financial metrics including ROIC.Since that low point,we have seen a recovery in the industrys financial performance as well as in traffic volumes.With ROIC turning positive again in 2022 at just shy of the 2%mark,the metric is expected to continue to increase in 2023 and 2024 reaching 4.7%a

143、nd 4.9%respectively,again driven by the financial outcomes in North America and Europe in particular.At the same time,however,the cost of capital has increased in 2023 and is expected to remain elevated in 2024,as interest rates around the world have risen in response to the sharp inflationary impul

144、se.This has maintained a sizeable gap between ROIC and WACC.(Chart 22,Table 4).Worldwide airline industry20192020202120222023e2024fROIC,%invested capital(IC)5.8%-19.3%-8.0%2.0%4.7%4.9%EBIT margin,%revenue(rev)5.2%-28.8%-8.6%1.6%4.5%5.1%Net post-tax profits,USD billion 26.4-137.7-41.0-3.8 23.3 25.7%r

145、evenue3.1%-35.8%-8.0%-0.5%2.6%2.7%USD per passenger5.80-78.38-17.91-1.095.445.45Table 4:Summary of key financial metricsSource:IATA Sustainability and EconomicsChart 22:Return on capital invested in airlines globally,2008-2024f,%of invested capitalSource:IATA Sustainability and EconomicsReturn on ca

146、pital(ROIC)Cost of capital(WACC)-10%-15%-20%-25%15%10%0%5%-5%20082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024f19 Global Outlook for Air Transport Highly Resilient,Less Robust3.AirlinefinancialperformanceAircraftAircraft deliveries will increase in 2023 compared to 2022,albeit rem

147、ain below 2019 levels.The number of aircraft scheduled for delivery in 2023 has been revised lower,reflecting the ongoing supply chain issues that have created production delays.However,seeking to acquire more fuel-efficient and quieter equipment,airlines around the globe have continued to place lar

148、ge orders for new commercial jets.The number of new aircraft deliveries will reach 1,777 in 2024 and 2,075 in 2025 according to current schedules a record in the history of commercial aviation.The increase in demand for new airplanes is,unsurprisingly,driven by the three largest regional markets:Asi

149、a Pacific,Europe,and North America(Chart 23).The industrys orders are now more oriented towards narrowbody aircraft,a market trend that has persisted through and since the pandemic.The number of orders for regional aircraft and widebody jets has stagnated,while those for new generation narrowbody je

150、ts has increased over the past years(Chart 24).Chart 23:New aircraft deliveries by airline region of registration,2018-2025(scheduled and delivered)Chart 24:New aircraft deliveries by class,%share of totalSources:IATA Sustainability and Economics,Cirium Fleet AnalyzerSources:IATA Sustainability and

151、Economics,Cirium Fleet AnalyzerLatin AmericaNorth AmericaMiddle EastAsia-PacificAfricaEuropeIndustry total18132018201920202021202220252024202334932794435911124855131510285306140727270200314723180622335276844927410402235031411155386123830357354819445613723151847011799542177740647544160955892075Widebo

152、dy JetsRegional TurbopropsRegional JetsNarrowbody Jets67.0%7.8%5.2%20.0%201856.2%9.4%6.4%28.0%201963.2%12.4%2.5%22.0%202074.0%9.3%3.8%12.8%202175.8%7.8%2.8%13.5%202274.6%7.3%3.8%14.3%202474.1%6.9%4.1%15.0%202320 Global Outlook for Air Transport Highly Resilient,Less Robust3.Airlinefinancialperforman

153、ceLabor Global unemployment rates are generally at or around historically low levels.This is contributing to labor and skill shortages in many countries and across a broad spectrum of industries,including aviation.The time taken to recruit,train,undertake the necessary security checks and other requ

154、irements before staff are“job-ready”continues to present challenges for the industry in 2023.Staff shortages resulted in significant disruption during the peak Northern Hemisphere summer period last year.While the situation started to stabilize this year,with notably fewer disruptions,tight labor ma

155、rkets and persistent inflation translate into upward pressure on wages.For air transport,we expect that the labor and skill shortages observed in 2023 will gradually dissipate next year.Nonetheless,wages will rise with the higher cost of living,and the industry will have to keep up with the employme

156、nt needs dictated by the strength of the demand for air transportation(Table 5).Fuel The outbreak of war in Europe in February 2022 caused a sharp increase in global oil prices.The price of jet fuel rose further still,exceeding USD 175 per barrel in the summer of 2022,causing the spread between jet

157、fuel and crude oil prices(jet crack spread)to climb above USD 60 per barrel.In 2023,crude oil prices again increased in the second half of the year but have so far remained below the levels of 2022.The main driver of this trend is the war in the MiddleEast,which poses a risk to the stability of oil

158、production and exports,as well as OPECs production curbs.We estimate the average crude oil price in 2023 at USD 85 per barrel and see the crack spread remaining high at USD 30.6 per barrel,reflecting the limited refining capacity allocated to jet fuel.According to our estimates,the aviation industry

159、 will consume between 450k and 500k tonnes of sustainable aviation fuel(SAF)at USD 2500 per tonne(or 2.8x jet fuel),which will add USD 756 million to the industry fuel bill in 2023.In 2024,we forecast that crude oil prices will remain high between USD 85-90 per barrel,depending on the evolution of t

160、he geopolitical situation in the Middle East,and the production decisions of OPEC.If it decides to increase its output targets to meet the growing demand,the price could drop.Clearly,a sharper decline in global GDP growth could also push the price lower.In our central scenario,the crack spread shoul

161、d narrow to 30%,down from 36%in 2023,equivalent to USD 26 per barrel(Table 6).The aviation industry will increase its use of SAF and carbon credits to reduce its carbon footprint.We estimate that SAF production could rise to 0.53%of airlines total fuel consumption in 2024,adding USD 2.4 billion to n

162、ext years fuel bill.In addition,the carbon offsetting and reduction scheme for international aviation(CORSIA)is a global market-based carbon offsetting mechanism designed to stabilize international aviation emissions.The CORSIA-related costs are estimated at USD 1 billion in 2024.These costs will ad

163、d more pressure to the already fragile profitability of the industry.Worldwide airline industry20192020202120222023e2024fFuel spend,USD billion190 80 105215271281%change over year6.8%-58.0%31.8%104.2%26.1%3.8%opex23.9%16.1%18.9%29.7%31.7%30.8%Fuel use,billion liters 359 196 236 292 357 377%change ov

164、er year1.0%-45.3%19.9%23.8%22.5%5.4%Fuel efficiency,fuel/100 ATK22.121.722.422.622.322.1%change over year-1.8%-1.8%3.2%1.2%-1.2%-1.2%Fuel price,USD/barrel79.746.677.8135.6115.5113.8%change over year-7.4%-41.5%67.0%74.3%-14.8%-1.5%spread over oil price22.6%11.6%10.1%35.0%36.0%30.0%Worldwide airline i

165、ndustry20192020202120222023e2024fLabour costs,USD billion 189 160 162 175 194 206%change over year3.5%-15.2%0.8%8.2%11.3%6.1%Employment,million 2.932.562.612.752.943.05%change over year0.3%-12.6%2.0%5.0%7.0%4.0%Productivity,ATK/employee 526,003 335,264 382,109 445,100 516,068 529,144%change over yea

166、r2.5%-36.3%14.0%16.5%15.9%2.5%Unit labour costs,USD/ATK 0.123 0.187 0.162 0.143 0.128 0.128%change over year0.6%52.2%-13.3%-11.6%-10.3%-0.5%Table 6:FuelTable 5:Key industry labor metricsSource:IATA Sustainability and Economics21 Global Outlook for Air Transport Highly Resilient,Less Robust3.Airlinef

167、inancialperformanceRegions The financial performance of all regions is expected to improve in 2023 compared to 2022,and to exceed our mid-year expectations.However,the regions have recovered at different speeds,according to their response to the Covid pandemic and its aftermath(Table 7).Based on the

168、 latest data available,we estimate that three regions will generate a net profit in 2023,led by North America.North America remains the standout region in terms of financial performance in air transportation.As the first market to return to profitability(in 2022),the North American carriers are expe

169、cted to build on this performance in 2023,and deliver a net profit of USD 14.3 billion,supported by a high passenger load factor and higher yields.Consumer spending has remained solid,despite cost-of-living pressures,and the demand for air travel is robust.We expect air passenger demand to exceed it

170、s pre-Covid level this year.In 2024 higher passenger demand(RPK growth of 6%)and elevated load factors remaining at 85%are expected to further strengthen revenue development and operating profitability.Europe is likely to end 2023 with a stronger than expected performance,notwithstanding the various

171、 capacity issues and supply side constraints the region faces.European carriers will likely deliver a net profit of around USD 7.7 billion in 2023.With strong demand for air travel set to continue in 2024,net profits should increase to around USD 7.9 billion,and a net profit margin of 3%in 2024.The

172、key risks to the regions performance relate to the tight labor market,the war in Ukraine and in the Middle East,as well as ongoing concerns about the economic outlook in some key countries inside and outside of this region.Asia Pacific shows remarkable revenue growth in 2023 and is expected to be re

173、sponsible for half of the worlds RPK growth this year.This is very much thanks to the gains seen in the domestic markets of China,India,and Australia,all recovering at a faster rate than the rest of the world currently.However,international travel in the region remains subdued,especially in China,wh

174、ere it is still 40%below the pre-Covid levels.This indicates that there is still a lot of pent-up demand for cross-border travel in the region,which will likely boost the future growth prospects regarding air transportation.Despite robust revenue growth,the region is expected to see a loss in 2023 o

175、f USD 0.1 billion,and return to profitability in the second half of 2024.Latin America has seen a steady improvement in financial performance since 2020 but is expected to generate a loss of around USD 0.6 billion in 2023.The performance of airlines across the region has been very mixed;some are per

176、forming strongly,while others find themselves in considerable financial difficulties including being in or coming out of chapter 11 proceedings.In part,this a consequence of the economic and social turmoil observed in the region.The trend of financial improvement is nevertheless clear,with the net p

177、rofit margin going from-11%in 2021 to an estimated-2%in 2023 and a forecast-1%in 2024.The Middle East is expected to deliver a strong financial performance in 2023,likely recording a net profit of around USD 2.6 billion,coupled with a 6%net profit margin.The Middle East carriers have been swift to r

178、ebuild their international networks and continue to operate important global hubs.The regions financial recovery is supported by still significant RPK growth that is likely to reach almost 35%in 2023.A net profit of around USD 3.1 billion at a 5%net profit margin is expected in 2024.Carriers based i

179、n Africa are expected to generate a loss of around USD 0.5 billion in 2023.Africa remains a difficult market in which to operate an airline,with economic,infrastructure,and connectivity challenges all impacting the industrys performance.Despite these challenges,there is robust demand for air travel.

180、Underpinned by this demand,the industry will continue to move towards profitability following the Covid disruption,though we still foresee a modest loss in 2024.22 Global Outlook for Air Transport Highly Resilient,Less Robust3.Airline financial performanceTable 7:Regional financial performance World

181、wide airline industry20192020202120222023e2024fAfricaNet post-tax profit,USD billion-0.3-1.8-1.1-0.8-0.5-0.4 Per passenger,USD-2.7-58.0-24.7-10.2-5.1-4.5%revenues-1.8%-29.9%-14.6%-7.1%-3.4%-2.7%RPK growth,%4.7%-68.2%17.0%84.8%40.1%7.3%ASK growth,%4.5%-62.1%18.5%51.5%38.4%9.4%Load factor,%ATK59.6%51.

182、4%53.3%62.2%63.7%63.0%Breakeven load factor,%ATK55.6%60.1%57.0%64.2%63.9%62.9%Asia/PacificNet post-tax profit,USD billion 4.9 -44.8-13.7-13.6-0.1 1.1 Per passenger,USD 2.9 -59.3-17.4-13.9-0.1 0.6%revenues1.9%-39.6%-10.4%-8.7%-0.1%0.5%RPK growth,%4.7%-62.0%-12.8%31.9%98.1%13.5%ASK growth,%4.4%-53.8%-

183、6.1%15.6%77.9%10.6%Load factor,%ATK72.3%63.8%63.3%65.6%66.9%69.0%Breakeven load factor,%ATK69.6%85.5%70.9%71.4%67.1%67.0%Middle EastNet post-tax profit,USD billion-1.5-9.6-4.9 1.4 2.6 3.1 Per passenger,USD-6.8-142.0-59.8 7.1 11.2 13.3%revenues-2.7%-35.1%-15.0%2.6%4.3%4.8%RPK growth,%2.3%-72.1%8.5%14

184、4.6%34.6%6.3%ASK growth,%-3.3%-61.7%21.2%67.2%28.0%10.7%Load factor,%ATK63.5%54.7%54.9%62.9%62.9%63.4%Breakeven load factor,%ATK67.7%68.3%61.5%59.7%59.1%59.6%Latin AmericaNet post-tax profit,USD billion-0.7-11.9-7.0-3.9-0.6-0.4 Per passenger,USD-2.2-131.4-52.6-17.5-2.5-1.1%revenues-1.8%-73.7%-31.9%-

185、10.7%-1.5%-0.8%RPK growth,%4.2%-62.5%40.5%62.9%16.3%7.4%ASK growth,%2.9%-58.9%37.3%54.4%14.4%7.8%Load factor,%ATK69.2%64.4%66.6%68.8%68.3%69.1%Breakeven load factor,%ATK65.3%82.6%72.6%71.7%68.4%68.7%North AmericaNet post-tax profit,USD billion 17.4 -35.1-2.3 9.1 14.3 14.4 Per passenger,USD 17.0 -84.

186、7-3.2 8.9 12.5 13.5%revenues6.6%-25.2%-1.1%3.0%4.2%4.0%RPK growth,%4.0%-65.1%74.6%45.6%16.0%6.3%ASK growth,%4.4%-51.0%41.1%28.7%14.6%6.0%Load factor,%ATK66.0%52.1%59.2%64.0%64.8%65.2%Breakeven load factor,%ATK57.8%66.3%62.7%60.1%60.2%60.8%EuropeNet post-tax profit,USD billion 6.5 -34.5-12.1 4.1 7.7

187、7.9 Per passenger,USD 5.42-85.96-22.8 4.18 6.86 6.39%revenues3.1%-41.7%-11.0%2.3%3.5%3.3%RPK growth,%4.2%-69.5%27.5%101.7%22.3%10.5%ASK growth,%3.5%-62.3%29.8%69.9%18.4%8.8%Load factor,%ATK74.9%65.2%66.2%73.6%74.6%76.1%Breakeven load factor,%ATK71.3%82.8%72.1%70.6%69.8%71.5%Source:IATA Sustainabilit

188、y and Economics23 Global Outlook for Air Transport Highly Resilient,Less Robust3.AirlinefinancialperformanceRisks Although the airline industry should see further growth in passenger demand in 2024,it will also have to deal with the uncertainties arising from economic and geopolitical factors.With n

189、et profits of just USD 23 billion and a net margin of 2.6%,resulting from revenues of USD 896 billion and USD 855 billion in expenses in 2023,the industrys profitability is fragile and could be affected(positively or negatively)by many factors:Despite easing inflation,low unemployment rates,and cons

190、umers desire to travel in 2023,the risk of a sharper economic slowdown has not disappeared.Interest rates remain high in response to persistent inflation and tight labor markets.Developments in China are a particular risk to the global business cycle.Should unemployment rise significantly,the indust

191、rys outlook could shift negatively.As much as 20%of the European airspace is closed due to the war in Ukraine.The main effect of this regrettable situation has been seen on the routes flown,rather than on global traffic numbers.Much of the affected traffic has been rerouted via Turkey and the Middle

192、 East,for example.A currently unanticipated peace could deliver the potential for cost improvements with lower oil prices and efficiencies from the removal or easing of airspace restrictions.The war in the Middle East has pushed oil prices higher again,and OPEC countries output decisions will also i

193、nfluence future prices.Clearly,any escalation in these conflicts could produce a radically different scenario for the world and for global aviation.Supply chain issues continue to impact global trade and business.Airlines have been directly impacted by delays in the delivery of aircraft parts and of

194、 aircraft,limiting capacity expansion and fleet renewal.On the regulatory front,the industry could face rising costs of compliance,and additional costs pertaining to passenger rights regimes,regional environment initiatives,and accessibility requirements.The airline industry is expected to experienc

195、e slower growth in 2024 as global traffic should finally reach the pre-pandemic level,ending a high-growth recovery phase.Industry profitability will still be fragile,and airlines will have to navigate the uncertainties arising from economic and geopolitical factors,supply chain issues,and regulator

196、y costs to progress towards improved financial health.That financial health is not only a question of profitability,but also of balance sheet strength.Although pandemic-era public support for airlines is being repaid(and has been already in a number of cases),airlines are still left with more debt t

197、han prior to the crisis.This comes at a time when costs are rising and challenges are mounting,none more impactful than that of the changing climate.Air transportation is an industry with remarkable resilience,able to bounce back swiftly from even a near total cessation of activities.The world,the t

198、ransportation sector,and the aviation value chain,all have an interest in an air transportation industry that is not only resilient but also robust and able to withstand various shocks without falling over in the first place.This is so because our collective economic outcomes depend on the free flow

199、 of goods and persons a flow in which air transportation plays an indispensable and important role.Terms and Conditions for the use of this IATA Economics Report and its contents can be found at:www.iata.org/economics-terms.By using this IATA Economics Report and its contents in any manner,you agree

200、 that the IATA Economics Report Terms and Conditions apply to you and agree to abide by them.If you do not accept these Terms and Conditions,do not use this report.www.iata.org/economicsInternational Air Transport Association 800 Place Victoria,PO Box 113 Montreal,Quebec,Canada H4Z 1M1 Tel+1(514)874 0202iata.org