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1、41.FOREWORDTerence Chiu Commissioner,Hong Kong Export Credit Insurance Corporation Assessing and managing risks is becoming more crucial for Hong Kong exporters amid increasing geopolitical complexity and volatility in global trade.This inaugural HKECIC D&B Export Credit Risk Index report delves int

2、o the key markets and product categories for Hong Kong exporters.This comprehensive risk index is compiled from a bundle of economic,insolvency,and payment data and aims at providing insights and support to Hong Kong exporters in strengthening their risk management.HKECIC has always been committed t

3、o supporting Hong Kong exporters in exploring new overseas markets,lowering trading risk,and reducing operating costs.The launch of HKECIC D&B Export Credit Risk Index is a good demonstration of HKECICs continuous effort in encouraging and supporting export trade.In an uncertain year for Hong Kong e

4、xporters,our business community has shown remarkable resilience.This report,tailored for Hong Kong exporters,provides nuanced insights into the post-epidemic landscapes of 5 key global markets and offers clarity in navigating complex global dynamics.Dun&Bradstreet(D&B)remains unwavering in our commi

5、tment to support the Hong Kong economy,particularly SMEs.Beyond delivering data-driven solutions,we stand as a reliable partner,assisting businesses in navigating uncertainties,fostering resilience,and making smarter decisions.Andrew WuGeneral Manager,Dun&Bradstreet China1?（?）?Credit Environment:Ris

6、ks and Opportunities Business insolvencies rose 38%in the 12-month period to the end of July compared with the same period in 2022-construction,retail trade and accommodation,and food services recorded the largest increases.Inflation and increased debt servicing costs eroded consumers purchasing pow

7、er,making it challenging for some consumers to make timely debt repayments.This in turn can contribute to a rise in consumer credit delinquency.Following a period of weakness since mid-July,the Canadian dollar started to gain strength against the US dollar in September and is expected to appreciate

8、gradually from mid-2024 as safe-haven currency demand for the US dollar recedes and the interest-rate differential between the two countries stabilises.Key Takeaways Be aware that business failures are at elevated levels and remain a significant risk,consider taking credit insurance cover to mitigat

9、e credit risk.Prepare for a potential housing market slowdown amid higher mortgage rates;consider the effect of higher interest rates on highly indebted households and businesses.Given the long-term disruption to supply chains,supplier and vendor due diligence is crucial.Tighten payment terms for co

10、unterparties with weak financial profiles.Supply Environment:Risks and Opportunities On the upside,weak growth should relieve price pressures.Producer prices rose 1.3%m/m in August,the first monthly increase since October 2022.Higher prices for refined petrol products(+10.6%),led the increase off th

11、e back of stronger global crude oil prices.The number of employees on payrolls changed little in July(+4,900)compared with the increase in June (+65,900);job vacancies declined 43,100 to 701,000,continuing the gradual downward trend since the same time in 2022.The Canadian government is introducing

12、new policy and regulatory measures intended to both strengthen domestic supply chains and protect those supply chains from overreliance on offshore sources.Key Takeaways Expect supply chain bottlenecks to continue abating slowly but to pose challenges for businesses in the short term.Make supply cha

13、ins more resilient by identifying alternative sources and reconsidering strategies to minimize vulnerability to sudden disruptions to help mitigate risks.Monitor closely on the regulatory change and assess its impact on Canadian counterparties.Market Environment:Risks and Opportunities The United St

14、ates-Mexico-Canada Agreement(USMCA)is a mutually beneficial agreement for North American workers,farmers,ranchers,and businesses.The agreement creates more balanced,reciprocal trade,and promotes economic growth in North America.A slowdown in housing and consumer spending due to rising interest rates

15、 will lead to sluggish economic growth in 2023 and early 2024.The retail and fast-food sector has to factor in growing regulatory and consumer focus on sustainability.Canada banned the manufacture and import of single-use plastics that are often used in carrier bags,takeout containers and straws fro

16、m end-2022,and sales of these items will be banned from end-2023.Key Takeaways Factor the impacts of solid wage growth and continued elevating core inflation in 2023 into business planning for 2024.Rising interest rates have contributed to a sharp rise in business insolvencies,threatening market potential.Expect the services sector,led by hospitality and travel sectors,to maintain strong activity and drive up economic growth in the warmer months.?（?）?11?（?）?（?）?19?（?）?23?