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1、Click here or press enter for the accessibility optimised version2024 PreviewClick here or press enter for the accessibility optimised versionForewordThe biopharma sector spent much of2023 wondering whether investorsentiment could get any worse.As newdepths were plumbed in October theanswer appeared

2、 to be yes.But there are reasons to believe that2024 will see better times,if onlybecause global interest rates,always thiscash hungry sectors Achilles heel,seemto have topped out.But the macro environment is precarious,and vulnerable to shocks.Few arepredicting a speedy,bump-free recovery.This repo

3、rt seeks to highlight the hints ofan upturn that many believe is alreadyunderway.It also finds signs of ongoingdifficult times for many in biopharma.Thiswill be particularly true for those groupsthat need to raise cash for projectsoutside of“A-list”therapy areas andmechanisms,or for early,unprovenap

4、proaches.These hot areas,for example metabolicconditions like obesity or antibody-drugconjugates in oncology,managed toattract huge financial support last year,even when the wider funding climate wasdire.The gravitational pull of validatedForewordUnless companies can tell a very convincing growthsto

5、ry,investors are refusing to put money to work.Thisis likely to remain true next year,for both the public andprivate biopharma sectors.and successful approaches is unlikely toabate next year,sucking cash towards afortunate few.Progress in treating obesity and relatedconditions will remain a big stor

6、y forbiopharma in 2024.The enormousvaluations currently boasted by Lilly andNovo Nordisk,this fields leaders,arebolstered by a belief that the incretindrug class will help promote radicalimprovements in the health of hugeswathes of the population.There are two themes to watch next yearin this area:f

7、irstly,whethermanufacturers manage to keep up withdemand,and secondly,their progress inconvincing payers that the benefits oftheir novel medicines are worth their highcosts.Follow-on projects from Lilly and Novoand others rank among the sectors mostvaluable pipeline assets,so emergingmetabolic data

8、will also be a big story fornext year.Pfizers stumble with its phase3 oral agent danuglipron shows this fieldis not immune to setbacks.This report also highlights other bighopes waiting in the wings.Could 2024finally see a late-stage breakthrough inpain,delivered by Vertex?Meanwhile,small developers

9、 feature heavily in the listof biggest potential drug launches,whichsignals nervous times for biotechinvestors,and perhaps rich times for dealbankers.Sections on IPOs and venture capitalshow how the financing wheels seemedto turn a little faster as 2023 went by,raising hopes for further acceleration

10、 nextyear.Elsewhere,the FDA,another bigsector preoccupation,is on track foranother strong year of approvals,according to Evaluate Omnium.These positive signals must be temperedby reality,however.While the financialmarkets remain jittery biopharma will beheld to a high standard,with only clearsuccess

11、es rewarded.This was true for both small and largedevelopers last year.Sanofi and Bayerboth suffered huge share price slumpsafter disappointing investors in 2023.Bigpharma trading like biotech is a sure signof poor sentiment.Unless companies can tell a veryconvincing growth story,investors arerefusi

12、ng to put money to work.This islikely to remain true next year,for boththe public and private biopharma sectors.There are two themes towatch next year in thisarea:firstly,whethermanufacturers manage tokeep up with demand,andsecondly,their progress inconvincing payers that thebenefits of their novelm

13、edicines are worth theirhigh costs.Click here or press enter for the accessibility optimised versionInnovationand RegulationWith Keytruda also featuring as one of the sectors fastest growing drugs,Bristol MyersSquibbs rival anti-PD-1 agent appearing in the top 10 sellers and a handful of othersimila

14、rly acting contenders also pulling in blockbuster sales,the success of thisimmuno-oncology mechanism is clear.Keytrudas claim on the top spot is not beyond debate,however.Novo Nordisk sellsOzempic,a type 2 diabetes medicine,under other brand names:Rybelsus,and inobesity Wegovy.All contain the same a

15、ctive ingredient,semaglutide,a GLP-1 agonistthat is forecast to generate more than$28bn in annual sales across all its brands nextyear.Massive expectations sit behind this metabolic drug class,for 2024 and beyond.Lilly isNovos biggest rival for now,thanks to the GIP/GLP-1 agonist tirzepatide,an agen

16、t thatis also sold under different brand names in type 2 diabetes and obesity Mounjaro andZepbound respectively.As such,tirzepatides reach is also underemphasised in thisbrand name-based analysis.Growing Biopharmas Topline:DrugsMerck&Cos Keytruda is projected to be the worlds top-selling drug in 202

17、4,the second year in pole position for thewidely used monoclonal antibody.Top selling drugs in 2024Note:Forecasts include sales booked by all global marketing partners,where relevant.Elsewhere,the booming nature of the immunology space is demonstrated by vast andexpanding sales of brands like Dupixe

18、nt,Skyrizi and Rinvoq,sold for diseases includingasthma,psoriasis and rheumatoid arthritis.Mercks HPV vaccine,which protects againstcervical cancer,is projected to breach the$10bn mark in 2024,driven in part byballooning demand in developing regions.Finally,the arrival of Enhertu in the ranking of f

19、astest growing drugs reinforces hugeexcitement around antibody-drug conjugation.Impressive clinical activity has analystsforecasting big things for the Her2-targeted drug,which is marketed for breast andlung cancers.Biggest new sales generators:drugsNew sales is the difference between 2024 and 2023

20、sales.Source:Evaluate PharmaGrowing Pharmas Top Line:CompaniesPfizer and BioNTechs Comirnaty is the sectors only Covid contributor to make it into this 2024 analysis,although the vaccine is unlikely to feature in future years.Declining demand across Pfizers pandemic portfolio will rob the developer

21、of itsrevenue advantage over its big pharma peers next year,as well as its position as thesectors largest maker of prescription drugs.For now,Evaluate Pharmas consensus,derived from sellside analysts forecasts,hasRoche at the top of the table.Despite recent pipeline setbacks the Swiss pharmagiants e

22、xisting biologics franchise,lead by Ocrevus for MS,the anti-cancer agentTecentriq and Hemlibra for haemophilia,is enjoying huge demand.It also has the largestsuite of blockbuster agents among this peer group,with 17 Roche brands expected tobring in sales of more than$1bn next year.Changes from last

23、years report are also evident at the bottom of this table,with NovoNordisk knocking out GSK to claim a top 10 revenue position.Ballooning metabolicfranchises are bestowing industry-leading top-line growth rates on both the Danishfirm and its US rival Lilly.Biggest companies in 2024Note:New sales is

24、the difference between 2024 and 2023.The prospect of substantial future sales and earnings growth has prompted investors toreward Novo and Lilly enormous stock market valuations.Pfizer,by contrast,has beenpunished for its top-line contraction.A table ranking these developers on market capwould throw

25、 up a very different order,with Lilly way out in front.Elsewhere,AstraZeneca can thank clinical and commercial success across its broadoncology business for its expanding revenues.One plank of that,the ADC Enhertu,hashelped pull Daiichi into this analysis.And while GSK might rue dropping out the top

26、 10,it is not an ex-growth story.The UKgroups vaccine business has scored a handful of hits in the last few years,mostrecently in respiratory syncytial virus(RSV)with a stronger than expected launch ofArexvy.Its shingles jab,Shingrix,has also bounced back strongly after the Covid lull.Global new sal

27、es in 2024($bn)Source:Evaluate PharmaWaiting in the Wings:Biggest LaunchesA rare win in schizophrenia puts Karuna at the top of the table in terms of anticipated launches next year.Still,as we see from the table on the next page,this is a space in which setbacks cannot be ruled out:the FDAs rejectio

28、n of Sages schizophrenia project zuranolone was one of2023s biggest regulatory disappointments.Alzheimers disease will continue to be a hot topic next year.Lilly is waiting to find out whether the FDA is comfortable with donanemab,its rival offering to Eisais Leqembi,whichis already on the US market

29、.Elsewhere,Madrigal is hoping to win biopharmas first Nash approval,a disease area that has long disappointed.Moderna is striving to launch the third RSV vaccine;with GSK andPfizer already on the market,the young developer will have to fight hard for share,and make a name for itself outside of Covid

30、.AstraZeneca and Daiichi are bidding to push the ADC field forward once more with datopotamab,a Trop2-directed agent that has scored in lung and breast cancers.Confidentstatements from executives notwithstanding,the regulatory process will have to proceed without delay for this project to cross the

31、line in 2024.There is an outside chance thatanother Daiichi ADC,patritumab deruxtecan,licensed to Merck&Co in a huge 2023 deal,might also reach the market next year.BridgeBio represents a remarkable turnaround story from late 2021,when acoramidis failed the first part of its pivotal programme.Severa

32、l other small names feature here,ananalysis that is typically dominated by large developers better equipped for managing a launch.The valuations of Verona,Geron and ImmunityBio point to some confidence inthese groups ability to succeed.With investors tolerance for disappointment unlikely to improve

33、quickly next year,however,these are four names with much to prove.Biggest potential drug launches of 2024ProductCompaniesinvolvedDescriptionStatus2028esalesKarXTKarunaTherapeuticsM1/M4-muscarinic agonist for schizophreniaPDUFA September 26,2024$2.8bnDonanemabEli LillyAnti-amyloid MAb for Alzheimers

34、diseaseCompany expects to provide update on FDA approval in Q124(previouscomplete response letter)$2.2bnResmetiromMadrigalPharmaceuticalsTHR agonist for NASHPDUFA March 14,2024(priority review)$2.1bnSotaterceptMerck&CoActivin receptor 2a regulator for pulmonaryarterial hypertensionPDUFA March 26,202

35、4(priority review)$2.0bnDatopotamabDeruxtecanDaiichi Sankyo/AstrazenecaAnti-Trop2 ADC for lung and breast cancersPhase 3 reported in lung and breast;company is moving to filing in bothsettings in the US and Europe and hopes for 2024 decision$1.8bnAcoramidisBridgeBioPharmaTransthyretin(TTR)stabiliser

36、 forcardiomyopathyCompany intends to file with the FDA by YE23$1.0bnmRNA-1345ModernaRSV vaccineGlobal filings submitted(priority review voucher used in US);companyexpects to launch in 2024$913mAnktivaImmunityBioIL-15 superagonist plus BCG for BCG-unresponsive non-muscle-invasive bladdercancerPDUFA A

37、pril 23,2024(previous complete response letter)$878mPDE3/4 inhibitor for the mainenance of chronicOpen full table in browser:https:/evaluate.turtl.co/story/2024-preview-ebook/page/3/6Source:Evaluate PharmaWaiting in the Wings:Most Valuable R&DMetabolic disease developments are likely to continue dom

38、inating sector headlines in 2024,with Novo Nordiskand Lillys fight for share in diabetes and obesity a particular focus.Novo and Lilly are investing huge sums to ensure they remain market leaders and their follow-on projects are among biopharmas most valuable R&D assets.This table(next page)shows so

39、me of the sectors most highly valued research projects,ranked on net present value.Evaluate Omnium computes these NPVs from sellsideconsensus sales forecasts.Cagrisema is Novos fixed-dose combination of the novel amylin receptor agonist cagrilintide and semaglutide,the active ingredient in Ozempic a

40、nd Wegovy.A vast pivotalprogramme is likely to start reporting out in 2025.The first phase 3 data on Lillys tirzepatide follow-on,the oral GLP1-agonist orforglipron,should emerge the same year.Next year could also see the revival of Roches controversial Tigit project,should the long-awaited final re

41、adout from Skyscraper-01 impress.The trial,and tiragolumab itself,hadbeen largely written off after disappointing interim data,but a disclosure last year of what seemed to be an improving survival picture lifted hopes once again.Tigit blockade was for a while considered the next big blockbuster immu

42、no-oncology target,but its potential remains an open question.Several other developers are alsoploughing substantial sums into the mechanism,so the outcome will have wide repercussions.Elsewhere,data onJohnson&Johnsons nipocalimab will help determine whether Argenyx has competition looming in the hi

43、ghly valued FcRn space.And finally,Vertex will startreporting data Phase III from its pain project VX-548.Progress here would represent the first breakthrough with a novel mechanism in decades,and the valuation of this asset islikely to soar if encourage efficacy and safety emerges.Biopharmas valuab

44、le R&D projectsProjectCompaniesinvolvedDescriptionNet presentvalueCagrisemaNovo NordiskFixed-dose combination(amylin analogue+GLP-1 analogue)for type 2 diabetes and obesity.Pivotal programmereadout from 2025.$30.2bnOrforglipronEli LillyOral GLP-1 receptor agonist for type 2 diabetes and obesity.Pivo

45、tal programme readout from 2025.$13.0bnVanzacaftorVertexPharmaceuticalsCFTR regulator for cystic fibrosis;part of a new triplet therapy due to yield phase 3 data in early 2024.$10.7bnTiragolumabRocheAnti-Tigit Mab for lung and other cancers;pivotal readouts due from Q124$5.2bnAficamtenCytokineticsCa

46、rdiac myosin inhibitor for hypertrophic cardiomyopathy;in two phase 3 trials due to read out in late 2023 and2025$4.6bnCamizestrantAstraZenecaOral SERD for breast cancer;pivotal programme recruiting with data due from 2024.$4.5bnGiredestrantRocheOral SERD for breast cancer;pivotal programme due to y

47、ield data in 2025.$3.8bnEvobrutinibMerck KGaABTK inhibitor for MS;pivotal data due in 2024$3.6bnNipocalimabJohnson&JohnsonFcRn antagonist in broad autoimmune development programme;phase 3 data in myasthenia gravis due in 2024$3.6bnVX-548VertexPharmaceuticalsNav1.8 channel blocker for pain;phase 3 da

48、ta in acute pain due early 2024,neuropathic pain late 2023.$3.4bnSource:Evaluate OmniumThe Regulatory EnvironmentAnother healthy crop of approvals is on the cards in 2024,according to Evaluate Omnium,which identifies 65 novelprojects with a high probability of receiving a green light from the influe

49、ntial US regulator next year.Such an outcome would help dispel concerns in some quarters about a tightening up atthe FDA.In particular,the agencys use of advisory committee meetings will be closely watchednext year.The regulator has consulted considerably fewer of these panels of outsideexperts in t

50、he last few years,research has shown.Meanwhile,Robert Califf,FDAcommissioner since early 2022,has mooted certain changes in format.Most notably,hesuggested moving away from the use of voting questions.The pandemic presumably played a role in the drop in the number of adcoms beingheld.Some committees

51、 chose not to meet virtually and perhaps activity has yet toreturn to pre-Covid levels.But these hearings allow early insight into the FDAsthoughts around applications,and their absence would make more approval decisionsharder to call.With the biotech sector likely to struggle with jittery markets n

52、ext year,any increase in unpredictability at the FDA would be a further negative.Tracking US approvals:another strong year?Note:Count includes novel therapeutics approved by both CDER andCBER.Source:FDA and Evaluate PharmaElsewhere,the agencys clamp down on accelerated approvals is likely to continu

53、e nextyear.The number of these swift green lights fell below the 10-year average in 2022 and2023.This route,which allows breakthrough drugs to be launched earlier in thedevelopment cycle,is now only worth attempting if plans to generate confirmatorydata are well advanced.FDA tightens up on accelerat

54、ed approvalsNote:2023 count to end September.2020 inflated by 16 acceleratedapplications by Merck&Co for alternative Keytruda dosing regimes.Source:FDAClick here or press enter for the accessibility optimised versionDigital HealthContribution from GalenGrowthThe Digital Health ecosystem finds itself

55、at a pivotal juncture,navigating atransition from exaggerated expectationsto pragmatic realities following theexuberance in the period running up toand including 2021.This sector,now overa decade old,has burgeoned into athriving domain of diverse Digital Healthventures,boasting a staggering 10,000+p

56、rivate entities,each exhibiting varyingdegrees of innovation and promise.However,this flourishing landscape ispresently weathering a challengingfunding drought.Recent data reveals thatless than 40%of Digital Health venturesmanaged to secure funding in the past 18months,marking a significant decline

57、ininvestor appetite See chart:FundingStrength.The realm of mergers and acquisitions(M&A)has witnessed a notabledeceleration,while initial public offerings(IPOs)and Special Purpose AcquisitionCompany(SPAC)activities remain scant,especially evident in Europe where theabsence of recorded IPOs furtherun

58、derscores the industrys subdued state.See chart:Global Digital Health VentureExit History.The narrative of this evolving sector hasbeen punctuated by high-profileshutdowns,exemplified by PearTherapeutics(US),Olive.ai(US),andBabylon(UK).These entities,despite substantialfunding and lofty valuations,f

59、altered dueto unrealistic growth assumptions,setting a precedent likely to be echoedby similar shutdowns in 2024.Generative AI aka GenAi also emerged asthe focal point for Digital Health in 2023,capturing the collective attention ofindustry players,investors,innovators,2023 A Digital Health Ecosyste

60、mat a Critical Inflexion Pointand media alike.Its ascent in sectors,such as biopharma and health systems,demonstrates its dominance as the yearshottest topic in Digital Health innovation.See chart on next page:Share ofBiopharma Digital Health venture partnersusing AI/Machine Learning andGenerative A

61、IThe pronounced pain points within thehealthcare value chain have assumed apivotal role in shaping priorities and focuswithin the Digital Health domain.Thisshift has drawn intensified commitmentsfrom pharmaceutical companies,increasingly investing in Digital Healthinnovation within their researchend

62、eavours.Concurrently,health systemsare redoubling their efforts in leveragingDigital Health innovation to enhancehealthcare delivery,to address theirgrowing capacity and productivity issues.In summary,the Digital Health ecosystemstands at a critical juncture as it enters2024,recalibrating its trajec

63、tory amidfunding challenges,notable setbacks,anda much-needed focused emphasis onaddressing core healthcare challenges.The industrys resilience and adaptabilitywill be tested as it navigates thistransition from hype to pragmaticinnovation,setting the stage for adynamic and potentially transformative

64、future.Julien de Salaberry,CEO,GalenGrowthThe pronounced painpoints within thehealthcare value chainhave assumed a pivotalrole in shaping prioritiesand focus within thePercentage of Growth Stage ventures which have raisedfunding in the last 18 monthsNote:Includes only ventures with publicly displaye

65、d funding events,dataas per December 5,2023.Global Digital Health Venture Exit HistoryShare of Biopharma Digital Health venture partnersusing AI/Machine Learning and Generative AI2024 Digital Health TurnsThe Corner StrongerThe forecast for the initial half of 2024 inthe Digital Health sphere resembl

66、es acontinuation of the trends witnessed inthe preceding year.The landscaperemains ensnared within the array ofgeopolitical uncertainties,with theimpending US general election adding anew layer of complexity to theecosystems narrative.However,optimism emerges on the horizon as thelatter half of the

67、year witnesses a pivotalturning point for the Digital Health sector.Amidst this landscape of continuedvolatility,the industry is steadfastlysteering towards a trajectory of becominga faster,better,and more robustecosystem.Regulations andreimbursement frameworks are graduallytaking shape,catalysed by

68、 a HealthSystem crisis exacerbated by HealthcareProviders sluggish adoption of DigitalHealth innovations.The resultant pushfrom payors to craft Digital Healthreimbursement frameworks such as DiGa(Germany)and PECAN(France)stands asa barometer to this evolving paradigm.Within Digital Health Ventures,t

69、heimpending expiration of funding runwaysfor many entities looms large,promptingvaluations to hit their nadir.Emphasisnow squarely rests on forging pathwaysto profitability,augmenting effortstowards robust proof points such asclinical evidence.The landscape is ripe forcontinued consolidation,marked

70、by aconfluence of M&A activities andbusiness shutdowns.The ideal focusshifts towards constructing Digital HealthPlatforms that offer value-addition,seamless interoperability,and holisticsolutions over disparate point solutions.Biopharma will focus increasingly onDigital Health innovation in drug Res

71、earchEmphasis now squarelyrests on forging pathwaysto profitability,augmentingefforts towards robustproof points such asclinical evidence.and Development productivity,as it facesa significant patent cliff and pipelinedrought.Health Systems will focus onDigital Health innovation to increasecapacity a

72、nd improve productivity,as itfaces growing demand,labour shortageand labour costs.The alarming situation inthe UK with an NHS waitlist exceeding 8million people(12%of the population)leading 40+%of UK citizens to self-diagnose as they cannot accesshealthcare services,is reflective of thestatus of man

73、y other health systems andunderscores the urgency fortransformative healthcare solutions.Investors,faced with a constrained valuechain characterised by diminished exitsand an acute dearth of IPOs,grapple withthe challenge of seeking better returnsamid a higher cost of capital environment.Valuations,

74、which are finding a bottom,will have a cascading effect on follow-onrounds and multiples on invested capital(MOIC).The venture capital sector,overcrowded due to an influx of newplayers facilitated by easy access tocapital,confronts an inevitableconsolidation.This shakeout will howevercreate opportun

75、ities,and reshape thelandscape,shifting away from short-term,pump-and-exit strategies towardssustainable venture-building approaches.Despite these multifaceted challenges,2024 holds promise for discerninginvestor organisations and forward-thinking entities within the Digital Healthsector.Click here

76、or press enter for the accessibility optimised versionMoney,Markets andM&AStock Market PerformanceA bounce back in closely followed biotech stock indices in the final weeks of 2023 has raised hopes for a sustainedrecovery next year.The XBI,an exchange traded fund that tracks a large group of Nasdaq-

77、listedbiotechnology groups,surged 25%through November and early December,afterplunging to an almost seven-year low in late October.The upturn came as a huge relief to investors who,throughout the summer and intoautumn,had witnessed biotech substantially underperform other high-risk industries.Howeve

78、r,few expect to see a dramatic U-turn in the negative sentiment that haspervaded biotech in 2023.Any recovery is likely to be slow,with bumps along the way,investors believe.Interest rates and inflation might be moving in more favourabledirections,but the worlds post-pandemic economies remain vulner

79、able to shocks,andthat never provides a strong backdrop for biotech.Political events in the US are always influential on sentiment toward the pharma sector,and investors will be watching two of these themes next year.Firstly,the presidentialelection,and secondly the progress of several lawsuits that

80、 are challenging the InflationReduction Act.Alleging unconstitutionality,companies including Merck&Co andBristol Myers Squibb are seeking to stymie the IRA,while warning about the actsnegative impacts.Biotech UnderperformsNote:This chart shows the relative performance of three equal weightedexchange

81、 traded funds that track US listed companies.XBI includesbiotech stocks from across the market cap spectrum.XLV includespharmaceutical companies,healthcare equipment and medtech.RSPincludes all stocks in the S&P 500.Source:Yahoo Finance.One major complaint is that small molecules will attract less i

82、nvestment than biologics,because of certain patent advantages.This has yet to show up in one measure of early-stage capital allocation,shown in the second graph here.This tracks the technologiesbeing pursued by recent IPOs,which could arguably be seen as a proxy for venturefunding flows.Tracking the

83、 impact of the IRA:IPOs by companytechnologyNote:IPOs of pure-play drug developers on Western exchanges only.Source:Evaluate Pharma.IPOsThe IPO market is an important measure of the biopharma sectors health,and there are reasons to believe that certainvital signs here are improving.One,for instance,

84、is the return of crossover investors public investors that helpgroups float by backing large,late private financing rounds.They were largely absentfrom the IPO market throughout the downturn.Most of 2023s biggest flotations,including Acelyrin,Cargo Therapeutics and RayzeBio,featured crossover invest

85、ors.All operate in hot fields inflammatory disease,Car-T andradiopharmaceuticals respectively.That said,the failure of Acelyrins lead project fourmonths after the group floated,and the resulting share price crash,was not great newsfor a sector trying to tempt back more of these cash-rich investors.M

86、etabolic disease researcher Carmot had also received substantial crossover backing,though Roche swooped in with a$2.7bn buyout weeks before its late 2023 IPO.Thisshows how these investors are limiting their support to relatively“safe”bets for now,the Acelyrin blow-up notwithstanding.On the up?Annual

87、 biopharma IPOsNote:IPOs of pure-play drug developers on Western exchanges only.2023to end-November.Source:Evaluate Pharma.It seems likely that 2024 will see this trend continue,with the IPO scene dominated bylarge,well supported offerings.Relatively de-risked mechanisms or projects will befavoured.

88、It is notable that only two sub-$50m IPOs happened in 2023.Many venture firms are known to be in urgent need of liquidity.And with a huge bolusof IPO-ready developers waiting in the wings,pent up pressure could quickly push thewindow open,as soon as glimmers of demand emerge.Still,investor enthusias

89、m is likely to remain low for smaller offerings that involve earlystage or unvalidated science.The financing climate is likely to remain tough next yearfor those on the fringes of the sector.Venture FundingSector venture funding has been falling since 2021s pandemic peak,and 2023 is likely to see an

90、nual totals drop again.Evaluates latest report on sector financing showed a dip in venture cash raised in thethird quarter of 2023 on the second quarter,and the final three months of the yearstend to be the quietest.There are reasons to believe that 2024 could see an uptick,however.Should IPOsrecove

91、r,the return of crossover funds and the large rounds that they back could swellthe total venture pot.There are also signs that venture firms are becoming more comfortable taking on newinvestments.The first graph here shows that in the second half of 2022 almost 80%ofventure cash raised went to previ

92、ously supported portfolio companies,the highestproportion in at least five years.In 2023,that proportion has started to return towardsmore typical levels.%of venture rounds where company had prior fundingNote:All data concerns venture cash raised by developers of therapeutics;medtech and diagnostics

93、 excluded.2023 to mid-November.Then again,there are other measures that suggest that life for many young start-ups islikely to remain tough for some time.Backers are forcing their portfolio companies tomake their money last as long as possible,with the second chart here showing theaverage time betwe

94、en fundraisings hitting a five year high in 2023.It should not be forgotten that the bigger picture here is encouraging.The volume ofprivate money being raised each year,by both biotech-focused venture funds and theirportfolio companies,remains at historically healthy levels.But with much of the cas

95、hflowing towards“safer”ideas,next year could see capital further concentrated intofewer hands.Mean time to last funding roundM&ABiopharma dealmaking picked up in 2023 versus 2022,and further acceleration is expected next year.Annual takeover spend reached$127bn by mid-November 2023,Evaluate Pharmaca

96、lculates,a number that excludes a handful of notable December deals.These include Abbvies$10.1bn bid for the ADC developer Immunogen,underscoringthis technologys popularity.Elsewhere,Roches new chief executive continued to makegood on his pledge to restock the groups pipeline,buying obesity play Car

97、mot for$2.7bn up front,weeks after splashing out$7.1bn on Roivants inflammatory boweldisease asset.These deals show that the sectors largest developers are willing to pay handsomely fordesired assets,particularly those perceived to be relatively de-risked.This stance isunlikely to change in the comi

98、ng years,given the substantial firepower at these firmsdisposal.Annual announced M&A dealsNote:Biopharma targets only,excludes sectors like medtech or consumerhealth.2023 to mid-November.Source:Evaluate Pharma.This picture of healthy deal flow also suggests that the US Federal Trade Commissionsattem

99、pts to clamp down on sector consolidation has not had the desired effect.True,many believe that the anti-trust watchdogs overtures are forcing management teamsto think more carefully before launching a move,as well as extending buyout timelines.Another huge M&A driver is patent expiry,a theme that i

100、s likely to build as the decadeprogresses.2024 is relatively quiet on this front,with only a handful of notable expiries.These include Bristol Myers leukaemia blockbuster Sprycel and Johnson&Johnsonsrheumatoid arthritis agent Simponi.Click here or press enter for the accessibility optimised versionC

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