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1、EXECUTIVE SUMMARY17TH EDITION 2024 TECH TRENDS REPORTThe theme for our 2024 re-port is Supercycle.In eco-nomics,a“supercycle”refers to an extended period of booming demand,elevating the prices of commodities and assets to unprecedented heights.It stretches across years,even decades,and is driven by

2、substantial and sustained structural changes in the economy.We believe we have entered a technology supercycle.This wave of innovation is so potent and pervasive that it promises to reshape the very fabric of our existence,from the intricacies of global supply chains to the minu-tiae of daily habits

3、,from the corridors of power in global politics to the unspoken norms that govern our social interactions.Driving this seismic shift are the titans of technology and three of their inventions:artificial intelligence,bio-technology,and a burgeoning ecosystem of interconnect-ed wearable devices for pe

4、ople,pets,and objects.As they converge,these three macro tech segments will redefine our relationship with everything,from our pharmacists to our animals,from banks to our own bodies.Future Today Institutes analysis shows that every technologyAR/VR/XR,autonomous vehicles,low Earth orbit satellites,t

5、o name a fewconnects to the supercycle in some way.The ramifications are stark and undeniable.As this tech supercycle unfurls,there will be victors and vanquished,those who seize the reins of this epochal change,and those who are swallowed whole.For business leaders,investors,and policymakers,unders

6、tanding this tech supercycle is paramount.In this 17th edition of FTIs annual Tech Trends report,weve connected the supercycle to the nearly 700 trends weve developed.Our research is presented across 16 technology and industry-specific reports that reveal the current state of play and lists of influ

7、encers to watch,along with detailed examples and recommendations de-signed to help executives and their teams develop their strategic positioning.The trends span evolutionary ad-vancements in well-established technologies to ground-breaking developments at the forefront of technological and scientif

8、ic exploration.Youll see emerging epicenters of innovation and risk,along with a preview into their transformative effects across various industries.Weve visually represented the tech supercycle on the reports cover,which is an undulating image reminiscent of a storm radar.Vertical and horizontal li

9、nes mark the edges of each sections cover.When all 16 section cov-ers converge,the trends reveal a compounding effect as reverberating aftershocks influence every other area of technology and science,as well as all industries.Its the convergence that matters.In isolation,trends of-fer limited foresi

10、ght into the future.Instead,the interplay of these trends is what reveals long-term change.For that reason,organizations must not only remain vigilant in monitoring these evolving trends but also in cultivat-ing strategic foresightthe ability to anticipate future changes and plan for various scenari

11、os.Our world is changing at an unprecedented rate,and this supercycle has only just begun.Amy WebbChief Executive OfficerFuture Today InstituteTHE YEAR AHEAD:TECH SUPERCYCLE2 2024 Future Today Institute.All Rights Reserved.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY20243 2024 Future Today Institute.All Rights Reserved.Our 20

12、24 edition includes nearly 700 trends,which are published individually in 16 volumes and as one comprehensive report with all trends included.Download all sections of Future Today Institutes 2024 Tech Trends report at http:/ SUMMARY2024FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTES 2024 TECH TRENDS REPORT4 2024 Future Tod

13、ay Institute.All Rights Reserved.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY2024IMPACT OF TRENDS ON YOUR INDUSTRYLong-Term RelevanceNear-Term RelevanceAIGenerative AIBioengineeringGenerative BioComputingArchitectureAR/VR/XR&Synthetic MediaMetaverseWeb3InfrastructureMobilityRobots and DronesClimate and Green TechQuantumAgricu

14、ltureAutomotiveAviation and TravelConstruction,EngineeringConsumer Packaged GoodsEducationFinancial ServicesGovernment and PolicyHealth Care Systems and ServicesHospitalityMedia(Entertainment)Media(News)Pharmaceutical and Medical ProductsPublic and Social SectorsReal EstateRestaurantsRetailSpace and

15、 Aerospace DefenseSupply Chain and LogisticsTelecommunications5 2024 Future Today Institute.All Rights Reserved.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY20242024 TRENDSTrends are what we can know about today and are based on data and evidence.This years trend report covers hundreds of technology trends across various indus

16、tries and categories.6 2024 Future Today Institute.All Rights Reserved.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY2024ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCEWhile the hype continues,now is the time to prepare.AI is a transformative,general-purpose technology with the potential to influence entire economies and alter society.From multi-modal

17、 AI to self-improving agents and wearables with on-board assistants,the ecosystem is rapidly changing.While AI advancements promise to reshape our world,emerging trends highlight unprecedented risks,underscoring the need for preparedness,governance,and alignment.BIOENGINEERINGBrace for impact in thi

18、s breakthrough year.Recent breakthroughs have accelerated the convergence of biology,information systems,and advanced platforms,and attention has been focused on generative AI.Very soon,that focus will shift to generative biology,where AI models will lead to the creation of novel molecules,drugs,mat

19、erials,and living organisms.While biotech promises to reshape our world,it also requires preparedness and governance.WEB3Quiet developments and new regulations grow Web3.While the industry reeled from failures and bankruptcies over the last year,developers have continued to develop new capabilities

20、and features,moving ever closer to real-life practical applications for Web3.As regulations are on the horizon to be implemented in 2024,this could be a year of inflection,bringing Web3 from the experimental and theoretical to cold hard business cases.ENERGY&CLIMATEEmerging and tested tech comes tog

21、ether for progress.As the effects of climate change become more dire,governments are considering a more exotic set of tech-nologies to combat the situation.Solar geoengineering,ocean chemistry manipulation,and domed cities are all concepts that gained significant traction in 2023.Meanwhile,significa

22、nt gains have been made in en-abling infrastructure for renewable energy,focusing on smart grids,energy storage,and carbon tracking.METAVERSE&NEW REALITIESDevelopments indicate a possible inflection point.Apples new headset leverages AI to overlay digital onto reality,representing a pivot from fanta

23、sy metaverses to real-life applications that may signal maturity.Meanwhile,complementary features to enhance virtual experiences are being developed.Though device costs are an ongoing barrier,integrating AI and XR creates fundamental synergies,potentially marking the watershed moment the industry ha

24、s been waiting for.MOBILITY,ROBOTS&DRONESChallenges remain for electrification and autonomy.Consumers are adapting to electric and semi-autonomous vehicles and those that collect increasing data.At the same time,battery technology is increasing,enabling vehicles,robots,and drones to perform longer.T

25、he rise of these machines suggests a future where they supplement and replace human tasks,highlighting a shift towards a more efficient,increasingly monitored work environment.TRENDS7 2024 Future Today Institute.All Rights Reserved.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY2024COMPUTINGAI is transforming human-computer inte

26、raction.AI is changing what is possible in form factors,challenging underlying computing architecture.Researchers are pursuing energy-efficient architectures by reverse engineering the complex biological efficiencies of the human brain.As AI facilitates more intuitive communication,the technology co

27、uld blend more seamlessly into human experiences,with computing centered directly around people rather than devices.HEALTH CARE&MEDICINEThe barrier between digital and biological is vanishing.The merging of digital and biological worlds enables a whole new range of treatments,the most exciting being

28、 cells within our bodies that can produce medication in response to external stimuli.Conversely,cyberbio-malware creates new,existential threats to our health that we are unaware we need to protect ourselves against.Both developments have the potential to upend the pharmaceutical and healthcare indu

29、stry completely.BUILT ENVIRONMENTAutomation and data collection transform practices.In an industry used to following traditional practices,the past years have upended decade-old norms.Such shifts can provide critical solutions to new questions and signify a turning point that redefines industry stan

30、dards and operational efficiency.This pivotal moment underscores the need for strategic adaptation,heralding a reinvention phase in response to evolving demands and technological advancements.FINANCIAL SERVICES&INSURANCEModernization is slow,but consumers are ready to run.The financial services sect

31、or,dominated by legacy giants,is facing a critical juncture where embracing technology like open banking,digital identity,and blockchain is not just advantageous but imperative.This industry must shift from reactive to proactive,underscoring the importance of anticipation and preparedness in navigat

32、ing the future of the financial and insurance industries.NEWS&INFORMATIONThe news ecosystem hits an inflection point.Emerging technologies like generative AI are shaping the future of content creation,distribution,and mone-tization.New applications of AI are reshaping the media value change and forg

33、ing new consumer behaviors for information search and discovery.In the year ahead,the initial frenzy of ChatGPT prompt hacking and product launches based on large language models will fade,but the information ecosystem will never be the same.SPORTSAnalytics and customization are transforming sports.

34、Technology is enhancing the capabilities of managers,coaches,athletes,and fans.Teams and leagues are seeing progress in scouting,training,performance analytics,and rehabilitation thanks to tools like mixed reality,computer vision,and AI.Smarter stadiums offer unique,immersive experiences,driving eng

35、agement and revenue streams that support further improvements in a games quality and spectator experiences.TRENDS8 2024 Future Today Institute.All Rights Reserved.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY2024SPACESpace exploration is entering a new era.Defined by old geopolitical rifts and new spacefaring nations,this emer

36、ging era goes beyond past dynamics to involve a broader constellation of smaller nations and private enterprises,all enabled by the decreasing cost of space access.With lowered launch costs,zero gravity could unlock scientific discoveries previously impossible.The dream of a multi-planetary humanity

37、 stirs deep questions about our priorities.SUPPLY CHAIN&LOGISTICSReal-time data and instant everything shape new terrain.Regional instability,materials disruptions,manufacturing relocation,and labor tensions create hardship for businesses and manufacturers trying to bring their goods to consumers,wh

38、o are also becoming more demanding.As businesses strive to meet these demands,they will be compelled to rethink their strategies,technologies,and workflows,marking a pivotal moment in the report on industry trends.HOSPITALITY&RESTAURANTSTech-driven efficiency cant replace personalization.Contactless

39、 payments,immersive pre-experiences,augmentations that recognize a guests personalized needs upon entering the premise,and automated back-of-house functions offer opportunities for owners and operators to capitalize on that can provide elevated experiences and a reduction in overhead costsbut human

40、workers might hold these positions,driving an ongoing tension between efficiency and a personal touch.ENTERTAINMENTAIs impact on live entertainment is just beginning.Taylor Swifts concert film demonstrated that secondary live experiences resonate deeply.Add to that haptics,holographic transmission i

41、n real-time,and climate considerations that have consumers looking for local options,and a whole new world of performance experiences opens up.These developments create completely new ways to engage with content and opportunities for new business models.TRENDS9 2024 Future Today Institute.All Rights

42、 Reserved.GENERALCommoditization of General Purpose Models In the near future,expect the commoditization of general purpose models.LLMs are becoming widely accessible and integral to app development.As these models become ubiquitous and cost-effec-tive,akin to cloud services,their adoption will stan

43、-dardize across industries,diminishing their role as a competitive differentiator.Large Reasoning ModelVertically integrated solutions will garner a higher transactional value.Some companies will win by providing“a refined/value-added LLM product”to the end consumer and meeting the customer in desir

44、ed distribution channels,such as LLMs for health care,legal,finance,and architecture.Adoption of Natural Language Interfaces The evolution toward natural language interfaces will soon diminish the reliance on traditional graph-ic user interfaces.This shift will enable more intu-itive interactions wi

45、th computers,using everyday language.This transition may also influence device form factors,potentially leading to an increase in wearables and the development of AI-specific devic-es and operating systems centered around LLMs.AUTOMATION AI Assistants Transform Coding LandscapeAI coding assistants,s

46、uch as GitHubs Copilot and Metas Code Llama,are transforming software development with advanced autocomplete func-tions and innovative debugging tools,offering both premium and free solutions to enhance coding efficiency and creativity.Expect to see more im-provements to these tools and more tools t

47、o launch in this space.AI Integration in Health Care and Life Sciences Generative AI will lead to breakthroughs in pro-teins,antibodies,and drugs.Specialized models will continue to accelerate discovery in biology and chemistry,sparking more practical applications and boosting investment.REGULATION

48、AND GEOPOLITICS US Strategy on AI and China Relations The US is expected to intensify efforts to get allies to limit their collaborations with China in AI de-velopment,following President Bidens enhanced export restrictions on semiconductors.With the Netherlands aligning with US requests,further dem

49、ands on allies to adopt similar stances aim to curb Chinas AI advancements.Europe Begins Regulating AIThe European Commission will open its European AI Office,which will oversee the development and use of safe artificial intelligence(within Europe,at least)and assist with the implementation of the A

50、I Act.The office will enforce general purpose AI rules,monitor compliance,and attempt to become a hub for international cooperation on AI governance.Challenges in US Chip Manufacturing Expansion The US moves to onshore chip fabrication will expe-rience growing pains associated with higher labor cost

51、s compared to Taiwan.This shift may lead to increased expenses in constructing fabs and pro-ducing domestically made chips,surpassing initial estimates outlined in the CHIPS Act.ENTERPRISE Talent Shift in AI Industry Expect a significant talent crunch as top innova-tors depart major tech giants like

52、 Google,OpenAI,and Meta to launch their own ventures,ranging from conversational agents to AI-first biotech firms,signaling a broad diversification and special-ization within the AI sector.Consolidation in 2024 Consolidation will persist this year,building on moves like Microsofts 2023 increased inv

53、estment in OpenAI for Bing,aimed at capturing market share from Google search.Similar strategies by major tech companies are anticipated throughout 2024.Increased Enterprise Adoption of AI The current macroeconomic environment is driving leaders to view AI as essential for growth,antici-pating incre

54、ased enterprise adoption despite the potential for making some job categories obsolete.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY2024LIKELY NEAR TERM DEVELOPMENTS ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE10 2024 Future Today Institute.All Rights Reserved.BRIDGING THE WEB DIVIDE Many of the technological limitations of blockchain have been re

55、solved or reduced,but adoption is the next hurdle for blockchain technology and crypto markets.Many forces are driv-ing and limiting adoption today,and the speed of adoption will depend on the intersection and final outcomes of these forces.Even in the depth of the bear market,the industry is seeing

56、 very promising signs of interest and adoption from traditional industry players.However,major roadblockslike regulationpersist,and these factors are largely out of the hands of the crypto industry.Enshrined Account AbstractionAccount abstraction is a proposed upgrade to Ethereum that,when implement

57、ed,will provide flexibility in account setup via smart contracts.This will give users easier routes to maintain self-custody of tokens,more akin to account management in Web2.Verifying AI Output AI models are sowing online discord.Deep-fakes and misinformation are major issues for political election

58、s and online interaction.Zero-knowledge cryptography could enable verifiable online content and remove distrust behind content consumed online.Globally Successful Web3 GameThe video game industry is years into the creation of top titles that have blockchain built into the core of the gameplay.The si

59、milarities of these games to titles gamers are familiar with,combined with new ways to play,should attract crypto natives and Web2 gamers.Tokenized Asset Network Adoption Traditional global financial players are working on private blockchains to facilitate the trans-fer of tokenized financial assets

60、,which are quicker to transfer and settle,and which help companies avoid the regulatory and security concerns of public networks.US Regulators Forced to DecideSEC investigation and regulation of crypto assets is causing pressure to mount.Major decisions around the SECs regulatory scope,classificatio

61、n of securities,and legality of de-centralized finance are coming to a head,which could shift the entire crypto market.Crypto Double Down in Africa In sub-Saharan Africa,crypto is more than a“nice-to-have”;its a financial necessity.A mix of financial instability and demographics in this region have

62、led to the quiet adoption of crypto payments,which will lead to a greater industry focus in the region.11 MACRO SOURCES OF DISRUPTIONTechnologyGovernmentMedia&TelecomPublic HealthInfrastructureDemographicsEducationEconomyEnvironmentGeopoliticsWealth DistributionEXECUTIVE SUMMARY2024LIKELY NEAR TERM

63、DEVELOPMENTS WEB311 2024 Future Today Institute.All Rights Reserved.THE FOUNDATIONS OF THE METAVERSEAs virtual experiences become more embedded into daily life,we can expect growing pains.Regulators must balance guidelines that ensure integrity without restricting an nascent industry.Tapid advances

64、precipitate more seamless,intuitive user experiences.Hands-free environments feel within reach as inno-vations like gesture control tech remove friction.Past the hype,enterprise use cas-es will gain traction,and efficiency gains will drive adoption beyond novelty appeal.Generative AI will further ac

65、celerate pro-liferation by enabling amateur creators to construct fully realized 3D worlds without coding skills.With increased adoption,interoperability will rise as a priority.Metaverse technology has perpetually searched for a wide audienceif it fails to reach the mainstream consumer,indus-trial

66、use cases may take over.Medical,industrial,or civic metaverses may be the first to find product-market fit.Their focused nature could lend itself more readily to creating utility and value.Completely Hands-Free ExperienceAs delivery routes and last-mile deliveries continue to increase in speed and c

67、omplexity,automation will let logistics companies cre-ate an intricate web of delivery offerings that can be unique to each customer.Extended Reality Gets Serious With workers continuing to grow in scarcity,virtual agents will take over back-of-house work in the warehouse.These virtual agents will s

68、oon be able to oversee themselves and their cobot workers,reducing the need for human intervention.Metaverse-Tailored OfferingsAs climate change continues to be a disrup-tion,logistics providers will explore how they can insure against extreme weather events.These costs could be passed along to con-

69、sumers who choose goods from more volatile regions.Metaverse World Building for All Increased automation and use of virtual agents raise the need for workers to to know how to manage new tech-enabled work and tasks.This upskilling could be done through remote learning and working opportunities.Regul

70、ators Target Virtual TradingWith manufacturing locations moving closer to the consumer and e-commerce increasing,manufacturers need to consider how to create products in the exact spot as their consumers.Consumer Push for InteroperabilityGlobal conflicts,combined with consumers and businesses wary o

71、f supporting govern-ments with values antithetical to their own will increase demand for verification of supply chains.Granular data collection and transmis-sion will enable this shift in transparency.11 MACRO SOURCES OF DISRUPTIONTechnologyGovernmentMedia&TelecomPublic HealthInfrastructureDemograph

72、icsEducationEconomyEnvironmentGeopoliticsWealth DistributionEXECUTIVE SUMMARY2024LIKELY NEAR TERM DEVELOPMENTS METAVERSE&NEW REALITIES12 2024 Future Today Institute.All Rights Reserved.RAPID ACCELERATIONThe rapid integration of artificial intelli-gence into bioengineering is catalyzing unprecedented

73、 innovation.The near future will see significant changes to traditional industries such as meat,dairy,textiles,and pharmaceuticals,while advancements should pave the way for sustainable solutions in carbon capture,plastics recycling,and biodiversity en-hancement.Near-term breakthroughs in healthcare

74、 will lead to cataclysmic,long-term disruption.Leaders should deepen their understanding of bioengineerings vast potential and associated risks,en-abling them to spearhead innovation in products and services,streamline pro-cesses,improve materials,and achieve cost efficiencies.This convergence also

75、opens up new avenues for collaboration,allowing companies to explore untapped markets and forge strategic partnerships that can drive forward their competitive edge.CRISPRs Emerging Economic ImpactThe size of the global market for CRISPR technologies and their associated products is projected to exc

76、eed$4 billion by mid-decade.In the US alone,CRISPR could contribute$19 billion to GDP by 2032.GMO Misinformation A new GMO backlash looms as public mis-information persists,with many unaware that the latest GMOs aim to boost produce and grains with enhanced nutrients,not just modify them for conveni

77、ence or yield.Life Extension BacklashLife extension breakthroughs promise longer lives for some,yet they will strain social ser-vices,pensions,and other support systems for the elderly,challenging our preparedness for an aging population.Supply Chain Disruption In the next year,new materials poised

78、to im-prove shippings environmental footprint may disrupt traditional supply and cold chain op-erations dependent on outdated tech,posing significant threats to established companies.Regulatory PressuresFederal Trade Commission actions spark fears of stifled innovation due to limits on scaling thera

79、pies via acquisitions,while the US Inflation Reduction Act ushers in a harsh-er pricing climate,impacting the biopharma industrys future reimbursement strategies for innovations.Stark Health DivideBiotech will revolutionize health care with novel drug therapies,yet their inaccessibility to developin

80、g economies risks creating a stark health divide,exacerbating global health inequalities.11 MACRO SOURCES OF DISRUPTIONTechnologyGovernmentMedia&TelecomPublic HealthInfrastructureDemographicsEducationEconomyEnvironmentGeopoliticsWealth DistributionEXECUTIVE SUMMARY2024LIKELY NEAR TERM DEVELOPMENTS B

81、IOENGINEERING13 2024 Future Today Institute.All Rights Reserved.CHANGE IS THE NEW NORMALTwo opposing forces will make the corporate landscape highly volatile and unpredictable.On the one hand,active regulatory bodies,scaling of renewable energy production,and increased investment in innovation that

82、aims to solve the remaining bottlenecks will require and empower corporations to integrate sustain-ability in ways not imaginable just a few years ago.On the other hand,economic headwinds in the form of heavy inflation and a looming reces-sion might lead consumers to priori-tize affordability over s

83、ustainability,and escalating geopolitical tensions could strain the supply chain,in-crease the price of raw materials,and hinder collaboration in researchslowing down innovation.Price Beats EthicsAs inflation soars and the fear of a recession festers,consumers might put affordability above climate c

84、onsiderations,at least when it comes to their wallets.This will put additional strain on business owners,as they determine how to adjust for climate demands.Shifts in MobilityMore and more people,at least in Europe,are committing to not use air travel.The resulting smaller spheres of mobility could

85、lead to an increasing need for companies to have local hubs,especially as the terms of remote work are still being negotiated.Rethinking Supply ChainsGovernments are expanding their require-ments for reliable and consistent reporting of direct and indirect emissions(scope 1,2,and 3),putting pressure

86、 on corporations to curate their vendor networks and on the vendors to ensure their operations are still profitable under increased standards.From Early Bird to Night OwlExcessive heat impacts daily lives around the globe,forcing people to stay indoors during the day and only leave their houses in t

87、he eve-ning.As these heat phases expand,industries dependent on peoples physical presence will have to rethink operations as habits and tim-ing of activities shift.Accountability ChangesThe resolution of a number of upcoming court cases will begin to determine govern-ment and corporate responsibilit

88、y for climate change.If verdicts fall on the side of holding institutions responsible,we could see funda-mental changes in how climate is addressed.Climate UpskillingWith climate regulation expanding and evolv-ing,and climate technology innovation accel-erating(thanks to AI)and scaling,companies nee

89、d to make sure they have the necessary know-how in-house to understand and moni-tor relevant developments.11 MACRO SOURCES OF DISRUPTIONTechnologyGovernmentMedia&TelecomPublic HealthInfrastructureDemographicsEducationEconomyEnvironmentGeopoliticsWealth DistributionEXECUTIVE SUMMARY2024LIKELY NEAR TE

90、RM DEVELOPMENTS ENERGY&CLIMATE14 2024 Future Today Institute.All Rights Reserved.MORE CERTAINTY IN COMPLEX SYSTEMSIn the immediate future,a wave of transformative development is poised to reshape our world across various domains.From the continued integra-tion of connectivity in automobilesfueling a

91、dvanced driver assistance systems and enriched in-car expe-riencesto the pressing challenges facing our electrical grids as we pivot toward an all-electric future and the changing regulatory landscapes im-pacting drones and autonomous sys-tems,these developments underscore the dynamic nature of tech

92、nological progress.They collectively signify an era of both challenge and opportunity,where adaptability and forward-think-ing will be key to navigating the dis-ruptive forces of technology.Continued ConnectednessAutomobiles are only becoming more con-nected.This will impact advanced driver assistan

93、ce systems as well as infotainment within the cabin.Automobiles will be less isolating as drivers and passengers seam-lessly expand how they connect to their lives outside the car.Challenges to the Grid As we idealistically transition to an all-elec-tric future,many have speculated our elec-trical g

94、rids will not be able to handle this adjustment.Others are more optimistic.In time,we will have more certainty.Supply Chain Disruptions PersistEven as the supply of vehicles and chips for robotics stabilizes,manufacturers and sellers should still brace for continued supply chain disruptions.Addition

95、ally,chip nationalism and other geopolitical factors will also threat-en supplies of goods.Viability of Drone Traffic Management The escalating use of drones and eVTOLs has necessitated advanced traffic management solutions.As various regions have put mea-sures in place,the viability of ubiquitous d

96、rone use will be determined in the short term.New Modalities for RoboticsResearchers have developed many innovative modalities for robotics and drones,seeking inspiration from various sources.This innova-tion will continue,with unexpected inspiration from nature or animals,and some systems will inco

97、rporate several different modalities in their designs.Clarity on RobotaxisRobotaxis have been the source of much con-troversy,as different companies have tested their systems with varying success.The near future will shed light on long-term feasibility,especially as regulations shift to account for

98、recent events and developments.11 MACRO SOURCES OF DISRUPTIONTechnologyGovernmentMedia&TelecomPublic HealthInfrastructureDemographicsEducationEconomyEnvironmentGeopoliticsWealth DistributionEXECUTIVE SUMMARY2024LIKELY NEAR TERM DEVELOPMENTS MOBILITY,ROBOTICS&DRONES15AI,ARCHITECTURE&ALLEGIANCEGeopoli

99、tical tensions are accelerating some key computing developments.Expect semiconductor talent shortages as nations adjust how they manage skills for self-reliance.Also expect the rush to prepare for“Q-Day”to become more urgent as countries race toward quantum advantage.We will see more companies boast

100、 quantum-resistant cryptography as a value proposition.And as countries become more wary of supply chain dis-ruptions,more inputs will be brought in-house.As nations do this,RISC-V adoption may increase.Technological developments in AI are also driving near term developments.To power AI,companies ar

101、e rethinking computing architectures using inspiration from the human brain and existing gaming devices.AI will soon flip the script on human-com-puter interaction;rather than users learning to operate computers,AI allows computers to learn to interact on human terms.With AI,the computer will adapt

102、to the personnot the other way around.Research and Debates on OIExpect a surge in organoid intelligence research.Organoids may be the key to AIs efficient boost,but the convergence of AI and OI may stir ethical debates.Semiconductor Skills Shortage Anticipate a talent crunch in the semicon-ductor se

103、ctor as countries aim to internalize production.This skill gap will necessitate refocusing,driving universities and commu-nities to prioritize these skills.Chip FreedomExpect a rise in RISC-V adopters as it trans-forms the chip industry.Offering freedom from costly licenses,RISC-V enables custom,app

104、lication-driven hardware,making chip design more accessible,thereby lowering the entry barrier.Surge in Q-Day PreppersBusinesses will prepare more seriously for“Q-Day”when quantum computers can break internet encryption protocols.As China and the US both achieve breakthroughs to-ward quantum advanta

105、ge,expect a surge in investments in this domain.The New BYOD Policy:Gaming Devices AI requirements will spur non-gamers toward powerful gaming devices,prompting demand for enterprise software integration.This signals a new wave of bring-your-own-de-vice hardwarepowerful yet portable.Expect increased

106、 enterprise application integration with such devices.11 MACRO SOURCES OF DISRUPTIONTechnologyGovernmentMedia&TelecomPublic HealthInfrastructureDemographicsEducationEconomyEnvironmentGeopoliticsWealth DistributionAI-Driven Form FactorsExpect an emergence of new form factors driven by AI,that diverge

107、 from the conventional laptop,keyboard,and mouse setup,as AI facil-itates more intuitive communication methods.We might also see a surge in specialized de-vices designed for specific AI applications,like dedicated translation gadgets or AI-enhanced cameras.2024 Future Today Institute.All Rights Rese

108、rved.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY2024LIKELY NEAR TERM DEVELOPMENTS COMPUTING16CLIENTS HAVE NEW REQUIREMENTS EXPECTATIONSIntegrated data and the output from models that use that data are becom-ing more of a requirement,allowing for greater manipulation and under-standing in the preconstruction and documentation

109、 phases.Clients will continue to want proof that a project will perform financially,and to interact and engage with that data on a more routine basis.More regions and mu-nicipalities will also want plans that extend beyond the structure itself,including options for what to do with the materials once

110、 the life cycle of the project is complete,as well as plans for how to convert entire blocks or just rooftops into functional spaces.The upfront planning process will become even more important as technology will more clearly show what should be prioritized,such as a road to be fixed or a new sewer

111、system to be installed.Deconstruction Plans Become Required Many areas already have deconstruction requirements,aiming to reduce waste heading to a landfill.These types of requirements will likely only continue to increase,which will change permit and construction planning.Cities Organize Themselves

112、Urban planning and development requires long-term strategy and planning,which can be complicated by sudden societal shifts and needs.AI and digital twins will be able to help accommodate for these shifts,increasing the chances of automated planning directing where developments should take place next

113、.Immersive Design Leads to Spatial RelevancyAs the world becomes more immersed in technology,screens and devices are continuing to shrink.This means that spaces will need to accommodate for more immersive experiences in their design.Built Environment Develops Data Markets With a vast pool of human-c

114、entric data,the built environment is sitting on untapped revenue streams of information that could benefit many business sectors.Past client contracts may prevent this from occurring,but newly developed contracts would allow firms to sell this data.Jurisdictions and Developers Require Second-Life De

115、signs Just as deconstruction will likely be regulated,so will adaptive reuse projects that address housing shortages.New mixed-use zoning or urban zoning developments will likely enable this change.Smart Green Infrastructure Combats Eco-AnxietyThe urgency of climate change could lead to an increase

116、in eco-friendly infrastructure that allows for power sharing and carbon-free transportation.These updates could bring resilience to areas where people worry about being displaced due to climate change.11 MACRO SOURCES OF DISRUPTIONTechnologyGovernmentMedia&TelecomPublic HealthInfrastructureDemograph

117、icsEducationEconomyEnvironmentGeopoliticsWealth Distribution 2024 Future Today Institute.All Rights Reserved.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY2024LIKELY NEAR TERM DEVELOPMENTS BUILT ENVIRONMENT17THE PACE OF CHANGE ACCELERATESJournalists are accustomed to the breakneck pace of change:Adjusting to rapid developments

118、has been the watchword of media organizations for more than a decade.The year ahead will test whether news leaders have learned to search for disruption or whether theyve gotten complacent.Barriers to creating compelling con-tent will fall.The operating assump-tions that let many digital publishers

119、thrive on reach will crumble.There will be a race to derive value from existing content,either by licensing it to tech companies or building pub-lisher-owned LLMs.New categories of devices will demand new publishing formats.Successful news organi-zations will triage these competing threats to find o

120、pportunity;too many publishers will do nothing and find their relevance diminished.Evolution in copyright lawGenerative AI tools have outstripped set-tled law.Expect to see litigation challenging whether crawling content to train a large language model constitutes fair use.The im-pacts of that legal

121、 wrangling could be com-pounded by new laws or regulations.Subscription fatigueThe conversion to a subscription economy is happening in news but also in retail,gaming,automobiles,and more.All those programs are competing for a finite share of consumer spending,so publishers need to ensure they are e

122、ssential to remain competitive.New modes of search and discoveryGenerations Z and Alpha have different con-sumption patterns than older generations.These differences are especially stark when looking at how younger users find news.Pub-lishers need to tailor their strategies to reach those potential

123、consumers.Fragmented information accessNot everyone can afford a news subscription.As paywalls at premier publishers get tighter,essential reporting may not reach the com-munities that need to see it.This is of par-ticular concern for the 2024 US presidential election.New European regulationsThe EUs

124、 Digital Services Act,in effect since August,introduced substantial changes to the regulatory framework for tech platforms.Its obligations may shift how platforms op-erate,just as a Canadian law caused Meta to drop news from its platform last year.Easier content creationExpect to see a new suite of

125、productivity tools aimed at transforming the creative process.Those tools will have a culturaland eco-nomicimpact as they lower the barriers to publishing text,photos,and videos.Legacy creators will struggle to adapt.11 MACRO SOURCES OF DISRUPTIONTechnologyGovernmentMedia&TelecomPublic HealthInfrast

126、ructureDemographicsEducationEconomyEnvironmentGeopoliticsWealth Distribution 2024 Future Today Institute.All Rights Reserved.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY2024LIKELY NEAR TERM DEVELOPMENTS NEWS&INFORMATION18CHALLENGES FROM ALL SIDESThe health care system is battling with increased needs for services,a rise in co

127、sts,disruption of sup-ply chains because of geopolitical tensions,and an uptick in diseases based on worsening climate condi-tions.Technology is coming to the rescue but can only accomplish so much:A fractured data landscape,lack of infrastructure,and a lack of data ownership and sharing regula-tion

128、 make timely solutions unrealis-tic.On the other hand,increasingly sophisticated patients,thanks to powerful sensors on smart devices,are actively taking charge of their own health.As higher expectations for quality care rise by such patients,medical professionals need to deliver an all-encompassing

129、,holistic ap-proach to their services.Rising Consumer ExpectationsConsumers have increased access to infor-mation about their health,which will affect their expectations of routine examinations.Professional insights must exceed and incorporate the information available to the consumer directly,or se

130、rvices will be viewed as superfluous.Fighting MisinformationSocial platforms have rolled back their COVID-19 content moderation policies and reduced staff in monitoring departments in recent rounds of layoffs.The increased amounts of AI-generated content will con-tinue to challenge sharing accurate

131、health communication.New Stakeholder EcosystemsWhen health care moves to the sphere of the consumer,through smart devices or medi-cal services administered in the home,new service needs that mimic those typically pro-vided in a hospital arise.These can be digital(data analysis)or physical(food deliv

132、ery,care,etc.).Decreased Access,Quality in CareHealth care systems are struggling to provide sufficient care,especially in rural regions.Tele-medicine offers potential support,but these areas often lack the required digital infrastruc-ture and medical personnel allowed to reach them.Novel Health Thr

133、eatsAs the effects of climate change worsen,disease patterns will change globally:Respi-ratory illnesses will increase in areas exposed to smoke from wildfires,or vector-borne diseases will emerge in regions with rising temperatures.Fight for Patient DataSensors from consumer-facing smart devices ar

134、e becoming more precise and increasing the type of biological information they can collect.Health care providers need to ensure that they can access that data to provide adequate ser-vices to their patients.11 MACRO SOURCES OF DISRUPTIONTechnologyGovernmentMedia&TelecomPublic HealthInfrastructureDem

135、ographicsEducationEconomyEnvironmentGeopoliticsWealth Distribution 2024 Future Today Institute.All Rights Reserved.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY2024LIKELY NEAR TERM DEVELOPMENTS HEALTH CARE&MEDICINE19ACTION IS THE VERB FOR 2024 Financial institutions and insurance providers have spent years experi-menting,ponde

136、ring,and investigat-ing new and influential technologies.To a great extent,the volatile market of the last several years created the optimal environment for thinking rather than doing.But 2024 will be different:New AI standards,scaled CBDCs,and forthcoming stablecoin regulations mark this year as a

137、year of action.If financial institutions and insurance providers leverage this opportunity to make real progress on their technological investment,2024 could be an inflection point for the industry.Inflation(Should)Remain SteadyCurrent views suggest inflation will remain steady this year after cooli

138、ng in late 2023.While Fed rate cuts will help maintain sta-bility,rising housing and rental costs at the beginning of 2024 have put upward pressure on inflation,making it a space to watch.AI Standards DevelopmentTop tech firms are participating in a joint effort led by the US Department of Commerce

139、to create standards around the safe use of AI.While not purely FI-focused,the outcomes will likely inform how banks and insurance companies use the tech.US Election OutcomesIn addition to the presidential election,several senate seats are up for grabs in 2024 that could determine key outcomes in ban

140、king regulation over the next several years,particularly in Ohio,Montana,and California.US Stablecoin RegulationThe Clarity for Payment Stablecoins Act of 2023 was passed by the House Financial Services Committee in 2023 in July,leaving many hopeful that the official legislation will pass sometime i

141、n 2024.The bill would regulate stablecoins like other financial institutions.CBDC LaunchesSeveral countries,including India,Brazil,and Singapore,have planned to launch CBDCs in 2024.While the scale and maturity of the efforts vary,2024 should serve as a proving ground for whether CBDCs work in the w

142、ild.Technology InvestmentA recent survey showed that 92%of banks plan to increase technology spending in 2024.This investment will likely focus on data and AI,leading to strategic hires in specific areas of expertise.Hopefully,these investments will be practical and not experimental.11 MACRO SOURCES

143、 OF DISRUPTIONTechnologyGovernmentMedia&TelecomPublic HealthInfrastructureDemographicsEducationEconomyEnvironmentGeopoliticsWealth Distribution 2024 Future Today Institute.All Rights Reserved.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY2024LIKELY NEAR TERM DEVELOPMENTS FINANCIAL SERVICES&INSURANCE20SPORTS:COMPLEX AND DYNAMICT

144、he sports industry is poised for a major transformation in 2024,with a host of exciting challenges and inno-vations on the horizon that will have a profound impact on the way fans engage with sports,creating bespoke and immersive experiences like never before.However,alongside these tech-nological a

145、dvancements lie a range of business and political obstacles that must be overcome,putting the efficiency of decision-making mecha-nisms to the test.11 MACRO SOURCES OF DISRUPTIONTechnologyGovernmentMedia&TelecomPublic HealthInfrastructureDemographicsEducationEconomyEnvironmentGeopoliticsWealth Distr

146、ibutionMore Immersive Experiences Sports teams already use mobile devices to provide augmented experiences and activa-tions for in-person events,and now this capa-bility will occur in homes.Spatial computing allows for more 3Dt renderings of a game as if you were there.Broadcasting Rights Lead to Tu

147、rmoilAs live sports broadcasting contracts become more expensive,streaming platforms and tech companies will make more competitive bids to expand their user base.However,over-paying for negotiating rights could lead to long-term financial impacts,putting stream-ing platforms in significant financial

148、 trouble.Olympics Serve as a Protest PlatformThe Olympics have always served as a geopo-litical platform,but the 2024 Games could be exploited in unprecedented ways.Considering the Israel-Hamas war and Jewish populations in France,along with Ukrainians aversion for Rus-sia,the Olympics will likely s

149、erve as a venue of protest unlike what weve witnessed in the past.Increased Web3 AdoptionThis year will reveal the true usefulness of Web3 technologies such as using blockchain for creating consolidated golden records,digi-tal fan passports,and dynamic ticketing,and highlight how these novel approac

150、hes will im-pact the fan experience.As teams and leagues work out the issues and take advantage of Web3,more organizations are likely to adopt it.Influence Expands from the Middle EastGolf has felt the impact of Saudi Arabias sov-ereign wealth fund through the merger of the PGA Tour and LIV.Likewise

151、,Qatar has leveraged its sovereign wealth fund to impact soccer clubs FC Barcelona and Paris Saint-Germain.These nations will expand their control with in-creased economic investment in sports includ-ing soccer,boxing,cricket,and even basketball.Automated Game Management Expands Technologies for man

152、aging games and match-es,such as electronic line calling in tennis,automatic balls and strikes systems in base-ball,and semiautomated offside technology for soccer,are creating fairness and minimiz-ing human error.More leagues will be pres-sured to adopt similar technologies,especially as the stakes

153、 increase from sports betting.2024 Future Today Institute.All Rights Reserved.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY2024LIKELY NEAR TERM DEVELOPMENTS SPORTS21UNLOCKING POTENTIAL IN SPACEWhen it comes to space explora-tion,there are never any guarantees.Missions are often delayed,and the complex nature of space travel of

154、-ten results in the failed execution of even properly laid plans.A wave of transformative developments will make our space-based futures look brighter,however.Based on near term developments and milestones,we will have more certainty on the viability of certain technologies such as asteroid mining,i

155、n-situ resource utilization,and space-based manufacturing.We will achieve new breakthroughs,plac-ing humans in new environments.Ad-ditionally,we will unlock new myster-ies and potentially learn more about our origins.Space Manufacturing Takes OffWith significant interest from government or-ganizatio

156、ns such as NASA,combined with the engineering know-how of startups like Red-wire and Varda,the industry will soon know the viability of manufacturing in space and the true benefits of working in microgravity.Humans on the MoonNASAs Artemis program has its sights on sending humans back to the moon an

157、d plans to do so by 2025.This along with the recent flurry of lunar activity,including Indias unmanned Chandrayaan-3 landing,expect humans to be there again soon.Asteroid Mining ViabilityAsteroid mining in and of itself will not be a near term development.However,we should know more about its viabil

158、ity as startups like AstroForge have reestablished their interest in the activity and have insightful missions planned.ISRU on the Moon As a demonstration of oxygen production on Mars by NASAs MOXIE has shown,in-situ resource utilization(ISRU)is crucial for space exploration.In due time,a demonstrat

159、ion of oxygen or water production will take place on the moon.New Discoveries by the JWSTSince its successful deployment in space,the James Webb Space Telescope has continued to uncover new revelations and inspiration.The JWST will continue to discover more about space,potentially giving us new clue

160、s about our origins.Affordable re-entryExpect a rise in companies focused on cost-effective return vehicles and methods to retrieve goods manufactured in space.If viable,this point-to-point space delivery and off-Earth industry promises immense expan-sion for commercial interests.11 MACRO SOURCES OF

161、 DISRUPTIONTechnologyGovernmentMedia&TelecomPublic HealthInfrastructureDemographicsEducationEconomyEnvironmentGeopoliticsWealth Distribution 2024 Future Today Institute.All Rights Reserved.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY2024LIKELY NEAR TERM DEVELOPMENTS SPACE22POTENTIAL DISRUPTIONS CONTINUE TO LOOMWhile many cust

162、omers need stability to know if they should move forward with taking a trip,stability is not assured,which is normal.However,new tensions are arising that could further disrupt the market and in-dustry.Much of these disruptions are due to customers demanding more personalization,which creates more w

163、ork for businesses.Thats especially difficult when these new technolo-gies are increasingly vital to remain competitive,but the labor force lacks the skills needed to implement them.These shifts to the market also offer opportunities to increase services and provide new touch points.Labor TensionsAs

164、 technology adoption increases,service unions could begin to feel pressure to block developments they feel would replace their members.Examples include the outcome of the recent SAG-AFTRA strike.Power StabilityWith climate change continuing to disrupt energy infrastructure,hotels and restau-rants wi

165、ll need to prioritize improvements to remain stable for customers.This will be a challenge as the construction industry is also dealing with a labor shortage.AI AvatarsBrand representatives can curate their interactions based on a consumers preferences and response to targeted media.Booking interact

166、ions will be more friendly as a result,and dining experiences feel more personal.These nuanced relationships will transcend short-term brand mascots.Delivery Everywhere Convenience will continue to win out.Delivery has returned to pre-pandemic levels,but now consumers expect to be able to get items

167、not just at home but wherever they are at any given time.This will require new tracking methods and omnichannel delivery methods.Dark DiningAs space becomes a premium,store footprints will continue to shrink,creating fewer positions for human workers and more for robots.This can increase market pres

168、ence,but will require greater upfront investments and market research.Technology UpskillingCurrent hospitality education institutions may need to add courses on technology and how to use it within the industry.QSRs will face challenges if they depend on employees lacking technological skills,necessi

169、tating upskilling cycles to train them to use new in-store technology.11 MACRO SOURCES OF DISRUPTIONTechnologyGovernmentMedia&TelecomPublic HealthInfrastructureDemographicsEducationEconomyEnvironmentGeopoliticsWealth Distribution 2024 Future Today Institute.All Rights Reserved.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY2024L

170、IKELY NEAR TERM DEVELOPMENTS HOSPITALITY&RESTAURANTS23ON-DEMAND DRIVES INSTANTANEOUS PROCESSESChangewhether from consumer de-mands,new technologies,or global shiftsis the one a constant in the supply chain and logistics industries.Its what leads to new offerings and services,such as the industries n

171、eed to respond to the increasing expectations for on-demand and instantaneous deliveries,commu-nication,production,and reports.Inno-vations in tracking and tracing goods,automation,and expedited and near-shored manufacturing are happening,but attention is still needed to address the shortages in cap

172、ital and talent.Proper investment to meet the gaps through technology will be expensive,and could create a burden many smaller companies cannot bear unless they create a clear strategic roadmap.With talent droughts occuring in all three they will have to keep competing for talent and seek out work-e

173、rs willing to be upskilled.Personalized Delivery Gets AutomatedAs delivery routes and last-mile deliveries continue to increase in speed and complexity,automation will let logistics companies cre-ate an intricate web of delivery offerings that can be unique to each customer.Virtual Agents Take Over

174、With workers continuing to grow in scarcity,virtual agents will take over back-of-house work in the warehouse.These virtual agents will soon be able to oversee themselves and their cobot workers,reducing the need for human intervention.Climate Insurance for ProtectionAs climate change continues to b

175、e a disrup-tion,logistics providers will explore how they can insure against extreme weather events.These costs could be passed along to con-sumers who choose goods from more volatile regions.Combating a Skills Drought Increased automation and use of virtual agents raise the need for workers to to k

176、now how to manage new tech-enabled work and tasks.This upskilling could be done through remote learning and working opportunities.Instant Manufacturing Meets DemandsWith manufacturing locations moving closer to the consumer and e-commerce increasing,manufacturers need to consider how to create produ

177、cts in the exact spot as their consum-ers.Verification Based on ValuesGlobal conflicts,combined with consumers and businesses wary of supporting govern-ments with values antithetical to their own will increase demand for verification of supply chains.Granular data collection and transmis-sion will e

178、nable this shift in transparency.11 MACRO SOURCES OF DISRUPTIONTechnologyGovernmentMedia&TelecomPublic HealthInfrastructureDemographicsEducationEconomyEnvironmentGeopoliticsWealth Distribution 2024 Future Today Institute.All Rights Reserved.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY2024LIKELY NEAR TERM DEVELOPMENTS SUPPLY C

179、HAIN&LOGISTICS24TIGHTENING THE BELTAfter the golden age of content,all signs are now pointing toward effi-ciency measures.Fears of a recession,inflation,a widening wealth gap,and geopolitical instability have many people holding on to their financial re-sources.And thats especially true in the enter

180、tainment industry,as prob-lems with the streaming business model,increased production costs based on the new union contracts,and fractured audiences create an en-vironment of extreme frugality.Tech-nology looks like a knight in shining armor,promising to increase produc-tion speeds and reduce costs

181、without decreasing qualityif it is incorpo-rated ethically and sustainably.After the unions negotiated contractual guardrails,those goals may be easier to achieve.Lower Production BudgetsAs studios work toward making their stream-ing services profitable,new lean processes will walk the line between

182、providing enough content variety to avoid subscription fall-off and actually making money.Engaging Broader DemographicsThe aging population in Europe,Asia,and to a lesser degree the US,requires strategizing about what topics will make people over age 60 tune in.On the other end of the spectrum,Gen Z

183、 requires special enticement to watch long instead of short-form content.Sustainability PracticesGone are the days when entertainment companies just have to take their direct emissions into account.Theyll also have to consider reducing fan and production travel emissions,recycling,and using sustaina

184、ble materials when planning and executing con-tent.Overpresent CelebritiesDigital celebrities,both those with human counterparts and those without,allow anytime access for fans but run the risk of eradicating the defining feature of celebrity:scarcity.Live-ish ExperiencesAs people have less disposab

185、le income,they will seek alternative entertainment options.Local pubs broadcasting a game or smaller,local live venues might be more attractive experiences than stadium concerts.Copyright ChaosMicrosoft launched its Copilot Copyright Commitment,assuming users legal copyright risks when using the com

186、panys AI Copilot.However,as long as there is no clear regula-tion,the use of many AI tools will continue to carry substantial legal risk.11 MACRO SOURCES OF DISRUPTIONTechnologyGovernmentMedia&TelecomPublic HealthInfrastructureDemographicsEducationEconomyEnvironmentGeopoliticsWealth Distribution 202

187、4 Future Today Institute.All Rights Reserved.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY2024LIKELY NEAR TERM DEVELOPMENTS ENTERTAINMENT25 2024 Future Today Institute.All Rights Reserved.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY20242024 UNCERTAINTIESUncertainties represent what we cannot knowand identifying them can reduce the risk of blind spots do

188、wn the road.In this years report,we highlight five top uncertainties that will shape 2024.26 2024 Future Today Institute.All Rights Reserved.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY2024UNCERTAINTIESHow quickly will AI revolutionize business,and in what ways?What global challenges will bioengineering be able to address?How

189、 will countries and businesses commit to decarbonization?How will humans prioritize their work environments in the future,and what will these preferred workplaces look like?In the context of increasing protectionism and geopolitical tensions,what is the future of the global chip manufacturing indust

190、ry?JUMP TO UNCERTANTITY 1JUMP TO UNCERTANTITY 2JUMP TO UNCERTANTITY 3JUMP TO UNCERTANTITY 4JUMP TO UNCERTANTITY 5010203040501How quickly will AI revolutionize business,and in what ways?27 2024 Future Today Institute.All Rights Reserved.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY202428 2024 Future Today Institute.All Rights R

191、eserved.UNCERTAINTIESEXECUTIVE SUMMARY2024How quickly will AI revolutionize business,and in what ways?Stratification Scales by Function or TaskStratification by IndustryAI Scales Up for ConsumersEfficiency Optimization in the Back OfficeBolstered Productivity and PerformanceCautious Scaling in Compl

192、ex IndustriesAgile Scaling in Less-Regulated IndustriesAI Serves as a Creative PlaygroundA Revolutionary Consumer-Facing AssistantGET THE DETAILSGET THE DETAILSGET THE DETAILSSCENARIO 1SCENARIO 229 2024 Future Today Institute.All Rights Reserved.UNCERTAINTIESEXECUTIVE SUMMARY2024Stratification Scale

193、s by Function or Task AI scales along two distinct trajectories:by function or by task.Functional scaling involves embedding AI into key business operations,like accounting or IT,to enhance productivity.Conversely,task-based scaling increases efficiency for routine activities like email,leading to w

194、orkforce streamlining.Both offer unique advantages for leaders,who must choose between broad operational transformation or targeted task refinement.Efficiency Optimization in the Back Office AI emerges as a linchpin,enhancing efficiency for back-office operations like calendaring and leading to a ca

195、scade of broader organizational and cultural shifts.But there are human capital implications:As AI takes root,the workforce gradually contracts.With efficiency gains,companies reconsider budgets,diverting funds from labor to tech.This shift fosters a culture of innovation,as employees are reassigned

196、 to more strategic,creative,or complex tasks that AI cant easily replicate.But it also will require companies to reevaluate talent strategies,prioritize adaptability and technical proficiency,and expand HR departments to include upskilling programs and change management.Bolstered Productivity and Pe

197、rformanceIntegrating AI into the business ecosystem results in meaningful workforce reduction,as the tech can tackle work that previously required multiple humans.Management adapts to overseeing hybrid teams of humans and AI,fostering collaboration and redefining performance metrics.Money previously

198、 allocated for salaries and benefits is redirected toward technology investment,research,and development,potentially driving further innovation.Ultimately,AI leads to more informed decision-making,risk assessment,and predictive analytics,and businesses tailor their AI solutions to specific departmen

199、tal needs to gain competitive advantages.1.HOW QUICKLY WILL AI REVOLUTIONIZE BUSINESS,AND IN WHAT WAYS?NEXT SCENARIO|THREATS&OPPORTUNITITES|STRATEGIC QUESTIONS|RETURN TO UNCERTAINTIESSCENARIO 1SCENARIO 230 2024 Future Today Institute.All Rights Reserved.UNCERTAINTIESEXECUTIVE SUMMARY2024Stratificati

200、on by Industry As AI matures,its scalability pivots around industry-specific applications.The speed with which AI scales across certain industries is a function of technological receptivity and reflects the regulatory landscapes that govern them.Business leaders must carefully measure tradeoffs betw

201、een these two challenges,calibrating their AI integration strategies to align with industry characteristics and regulatory confines.Cautious Scaling in Complex Industries Sectors like financial services and health care stand to gain improved productivity and efficiencies as AI leaders by processing

202、vast data streams and achieving decision-making acumen beyond human speed.However,lagging regulatory updates temper this progress.Slower to replace the nuanced judgment of human experts with AI systems,businesses take a more deliberate scaling strategy.They invest in AI R&D to create more sophistica

203、ted models built on equitable data training.Their cautious approach extends to data privacy and security,as they implement strong measures to safeguard sensitive information.Agile Scaling in Less-Regulated IndustriesIndustries less encumbered by compliance hurdlessuch as consumer packaged goods and

204、retailare quick to capitalize on AIs potential.It becomes a dynamic catalyst for innovation,enabling rapid ideation and deployment of new products and services.AIs ability to analyze vast amounts of data in real-time is leveraged to personalize customer experiences,from tailored product recommendati

205、ons to enhanced service interactions.It also creates supply chain resilience by predicting demand,optimizing inventory,and identifying potential disruptions.1.HOW QUICKLY WILL AI REVOLUTIONIZE BUSINESS,AND IN WHAT WAYS?NEXT SCENARIO|THREATS&OPPORTUNITITES|STRATEGIC QUESTIONS|RETURN TO UNCERTAINTIESS

206、CENARIO 1SCENARIO 231 2024 Future Today Institute.All Rights Reserved.UNCERTAINTIESEXECUTIVE SUMMARY2024AI Scales Up for ConsumersTwo primary use cases of AI alter everyday life.The first is through creative and experimental applications that introduce a sense of play and innovation to regular activ

207、ities.They are reshaping entertainment,social media,and online engagement by providing novel,personalized experiences.The second sees AI as a practical assistant,seamlessly integrating into daily routines to manage tasks,offer recommendations,and streamline decisions.This form of AI is becoming a de

208、pendable extension of personal efficiency.These manifestations of AI highlight its versatility and growing significance in shaping consumer behavior.AI Serves as a Creative Playground For consumers,AI is more about novelty and entertainment than utility.Students integrate generative AI into their pr

209、ojects,pushing the boundaries of creativity and academic exploration.Social media enthusiasts use it to embellish their online personas and captivate their followers.Consumers now expect more interactive and personalized digital experiences across all platforms,influencing a shift in how products an

210、d services are designed and marketed.At the same time,the digital divide is more pronounced as a broader segment of the population becomes adept at navigating and manipulating digital environments and tools.A Revolutionary Consumer-Facing Assistant The AI assistant transcends its fledgling origins t

211、o become an essential element of daily life.It simplifies complex tasks and executes functions with a level of access and autonomy that mirrors human assistance.Consumers find tangible ease in their routines as AI assistants manage calendars,make informed purchases,and even anticipate needs before t

212、hey arise.The downside:The role of AI in decision-making processes raises ethical questions,especially if these systems begin to influence areas like personal relationships,employment opportunities,and even legal decisions.1.HOW QUICKLY WILL AI REVOLUTIONIZE BUSINESS,AND IN WHAT WAYS?THREATS&OPPORTU

213、NITITES|STRATEGIC QUESTIONS|RETURN TO UNCERTAINTIESTHREATS1 Workforce disruption As AI takes on more responsibilities,companies must manage job losses and reskill employees to avoid negative backlash.2 Regulatory non-compliance Strict governance in regulated sectors can curb AI innovation/adoption i

214、f transparency,accountability,and ethical standards are not upheld.3 Data privacy issues As AI leverages increasing amounts of consumer data,rising public concern around data privacy may warrant increased regulation and standards around data use.OPPORTUNITIES1 Increased productivity and efficiency A

215、I implementation in back-office and core business functions can result in exponential productivity gains,superior efficiency,and cost reductions.2 Enhanced data-driven decision-making AI will provide business leaders with previously inaccessible insights,predictive analytics,and risk assessments to

216、inform strategy and planning.3 Competitive differentiation Customized enterprise AI solutions present opportunities to develop proprietary platforms,hyper-specialized tools,and new business models that distinguish an organization.32 2024 Future Today Institute.All Rights Reserved.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY20

217、241.HOW QUICKLY WILL AI REVOLUTIONIZE BUSINESS,AND IN WHAT WAYS?OPPORTUNITIES&THREATSSTRATEGIC QUESTIONS|RETURN TO UNCERTAINTIES33 2024 Future Today Institute.All Rights Reserved.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY20241.HOW QUICKLY WILL AI REVOLUTIONIZE BUSINESS,AND IN WHAT WAYS?Are you mainly focused on leveraging A

218、I in your organization for functional efficiency,task-based productivity gains,or both?What are you doing to build those strategies?How will third-party AI assistants change consumer expectations of your products and services?How might emerging AI systems create a compounding effect for your busines

219、s?Is there a part of your business that could be vastly improved or optimized if a component or compound could be altered slightly?How might your offerings need to shift as consumer and business buyer expectations evolve?Do you have the data governance foundations and AI accountability measures to c

220、omply with existing and emerging regulations?14253STRATEGIC QUESTIONS02What global challenges will bioengineering be able to address?34 2024 Future Today Institute.All Rights Reserved.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY202435 2024 Future Today Institute.All Rights Reserved.UNCERTAINTIESEXECUTIVE SUMMARY2024What globa

221、l challenges will bioengineering be able to address?Better LivingInfrastructure ResilienceSecuring Agricultural InfrastructureSubscribe or DieWidening Societal GapSelf-Sustaining Highways (The End to Infrastructure Bills?)World War FoodCommunity-Focused FoodGET THE DETAILSGET THE DETAILSGET THE DETA

222、ILSThe Never Retiring Workforce 36 2024 Future Today Institute.All Rights Reserved.UNCERTAINTIESEXECUTIVE SUMMARY2024Better Living Bioengineering initiatives and research present a change in our approach to health care and even aging.Researchers use generative biology to create new therapeutic compo

223、unds and test the viability of gene editing.That work results in better drugs,personalized treatments,engineered tissues,and alternatives to one-size-fits-some medicine.Experiments are underway to alter genetics to cure ailments and diseases,with success already being achieved in hearing loss revers

224、al and sickle cell treatment.Scientists leverage animal alternatives as they work to enhance limb,organ,and joint regenerative capabilities.Subscribe or DieHealth care shifts from reactively treating sickness and diseases to proactively addressing potential health issues before they emerge.With the

225、goal of making up for any future lost“reactive”revenues,the largest health care systems use M&A to join the bioengineering landscape as facility providers and treatment hubs.People subscribe to bio-based services,which they must use to continue getting access to health-promoting and anti-aging solut

226、ions.Big Bio creates the ultimate subscription package:Continue paying,or face an untimely alternative.The Never Retiring Workforce Economic conditions have not drastically improved for Millennials and Gen Z,who cannot afford to retire.Thanks to preventative medicine,genetic surgeries,and new therap

227、ies,the life expectancy of Americans spiked from 77 to 115 years.Many older individuals feel physically and mentally capable of working indefinitely,while younger generations face a bottleneck in career advancement.The implications are profound,and not just in the US.HR professionals and labor econo

228、mists prompt a reevaluation of career trajectories,retirement planning,and intergenerational equity,hoping to stave off a collapse.SCENARIO 1SCENARIO 22.WHAT GLOBAL CHALLENGES WILL BIOENGINEERING BE ABLE TO ADDRESS?NEXT SCENARIO|THREATS&OPPORTUNITITES|STRATEGIC QUESTIONS|RETURN TO UNCERTAINTIESSCENA

229、RIO 1SCENARIO 237 2024 Future Today Institute.All Rights Reserved.UNCERTAINTIESEXECUTIVE SUMMARY2024Infrastructure ResilienceOur infrastructure is no longer crumbling and fragile.By creating new compounds and modifying existing ones,bioengineering significantly enhances construction materials streng

230、th,durability,and flexibility while reducing reliance on harmful chemicals and petroleum-based compounds.Compounds that self-heal extend the lifespan of infrastructure by autonomously repairing damage.New materials,designed with generative biology,result in“living”buildings engineered with sustainab

231、le,organic materials.Widening Societal GapAs bioengineering technologies mature and scale,the demand for traditional construction and maintenance services wanes.Construction firms that dont adapt struggle,and those specializing in bioengineered solutionsthrive.While new homes are increasingly constr

232、ucted with these innovative materials,integrating them into existing homes proves financially prohibitive for many homeowners.A two-tier infrastructure landscape emerges,where newer developments boast remarkable resilience and sustainability features,and older constructions lag.Self-Sustaining Highw

233、ays(The End to Infrastructure Bills?)Bioengineering introduces advanced materials for highways and bridges that incorporate microorganisms,which produce substances to naturally repair damages,thereby enhancing durability and slashing maintenance expenses.These innovations adapt to fluctuating enviro

234、nmental conditions,offering better resistance against extreme weather patterns and contributing to infrastructure longevity.Some highway infrastructures mend themselves and reduce CO2 levels,while bridges utilize embedded sensors for ongoing health monitoring,ensuring safety and operational efficien

235、cy.2.WHAT GLOBAL CHALLENGES WILL BIOENGINEERING BE ABLE TO ADDRESS?NEXT SCENARIO|THREATS&OPPORTUNITITES|STRATEGIC QUESTIONS|RETURN TO UNCERTAINTIESSCENARIO 1SCENARIO 238 2024 Future Today Institute.All Rights Reserved.UNCERTAINTIESEXECUTIVE SUMMARY2024Securing Agricultural InfrastructureBioengineeri

236、ng addresses the global food security challenge by revolutionizing how and where we grow our food.Improved crop yields enable food cultivation in diverse and previously inhospitable locations.Bioengineering also offers solutions to the most pressing agricultural challenges,such as developing famine

237、and disease-resistant crops,engineering drought-tolerant plants that thrive on less water,and reducing reliance on chemical fertilizers and pesticides by creating all-natural pest resistances.Crops now withstand shifting weather patterns,while soil health is improved.World War Food Wealthier nations

238、,foreseeing the vulnerabilities of relying on traditional agriculture,heavily invested in synthetic biology and food synthesis technologies to produce engineered foods customized for nutritional content.This shift has created a new divide in the global economy,with disparities in food production cap

239、abilities.Agrarian countries,dependent on their exports of traditional crops,face widespread unemployment and social unrest.They retaliate through cyber sabotage and proxy conflicts,attempting to disrupt their wealthier counterparts engineered food supply chains.Community-Focused FoodGenetic modific

240、ation and environmental adaptation have revolutionized agriculture.Crops flourish in deserts and on urban rooftops,making food production sustainable and accessible.The urban heat island effect is reduced,and fresh produce and cultured proteins are available at local shops.Suburban and rural communi

241、ties have embraced cooperative farms growing bioengineered crops resistant to various adversities,enhancing local biodiversity and fostering shared responsibilities and benefits.Commercial farming has shifted toward sustainability,with genetically engineered crops achieving faster growth and higher

242、yields,leading to reduced land use,shorter supply chains,and less reliance on imports.Food is grown closer to where it is consumed,leveraging advanced technologies to create a resilient,efficient,and eco-friendly food system.2.WHAT GLOBAL CHALLENGES WILL BIOENGINEERING BE ABLE TO ADDRESS?THREATS&OPP

243、ORTUNITITES|STRATEGIC QUESTIONS|RETURN TO UNCERTAINTIESTHREATS1 Genetic Privacy and Discrimination Risks A rise in bioengineering raises concerns over genetic data privacy.Theres a risk that insurers,employers,or third parties could misuse individuals genetic data,leading to new forms of discriminat

244、ion.2 Automation In Employment Integrating bioengineering in various industries may lead to significant job displacement.Traditional agriculture,construction,and health care roles could be transformed or made obsolete by automated processes.3 Geopolitical Conflict The strategic advantage gained thro

245、ugh bioengineering capabilities could become a source of global tension.Leading nations may exert influence over others,leading to new forms of dependency and inequalities.OPPORTUNITIES1 Adapting to the Never-Retiring Workforce The increase in life expectancy will drive shifting career dynamics,allo

246、wing businesses to develop new career paths,flexible working conditions,and retirement plans that accommodate an aging but active workforce.2 Bridging the Gap in Health Access Advancements in bioengineering offer unprecedented opportunities to address health inequities globally through more cost-eff

247、ective production of pharmaceuticals.3 Improved Food Access Synthetic biology revolutionizes global food strategy by boosting crop resilience,enhancing nutrition,producing sustainable ingredients,developing alternative proteins,and reducing waste,leading to more resilient food systems.39 2024 Future

248、 Today Institute.All Rights Reserved.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY20242.WHAT GLOBAL CHALLENGES WILL BIOENGINEERING BE ABLE TO ADDRESS?OPPORTUNITIES&THREATSSTRATEGIC QUESTIONS|RETURN TO UNCERTAINTIES40 2024 Future Today Institute.All Rights Reserved.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY20242.WHAT GLOBAL CHALLENGES WILL BIOENGINEERI

249、NG BE ABLE TO ADDRESS?How can synthetic biology be used to solve previously unsolvable problems in your product R&D pipeline?How do you plan to manage intellectual property rights and protect innovations in the field of synthetic biology,and what challenges do you foresee in this area?What skills an

250、d talent do you need to leverage synthetic biology in your business effectively,and how do you plan to acquire them?How will your customers and the market respond to products or services developed through synthetic biology?What impacts do you anticipate synthetic biology will have on your supply cha

251、in and procurement strategies?14253STRATEGIC QUESTIONS03How will countries and businesses commit to decarbonization?41 2024 Future Today Institute.All Rights Reserved.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY202442 2024 Future Today Institute.All Rights Reserved.UNCERTAINTIESEXECUTIVE SUMMARY2024How will countries and busi

252、nesses commit to decarbonization?Blue EconomyAn Expanded Environmental Support EcosystemInclusive,Multifaceted Environmental ProtectionSustainable Growth and InnovationGrid OptimizationEnvironmental Efforts StagnateHolistic Benefits Are RealizedOver-regulation and Complexity DominateGET THE DETAILSG

253、ET THE DETAILSGET THE DETAILSExploitation and Environmental Degradation43 2024 Future Today Institute.All Rights Reserved.UNCERTAINTIESEXECUTIVE SUMMARY2024Blue Economy The blue economy,which promotes the sustainable use of ocean resources,plays an increasingly important role in countries sustainabi

254、lity efforts by harnessing the oceans economic growth while ensuring marine environmental health.This approach includes sustainable fisheries,renewable marine energy,and eco-friendly tourism,all aimed at preserving ocean ecosystems and promoting economic resilience.Sustainable Growth and Innovation

255、Marine technology breakthroughs vastly improve sustainable fishing,ocean-based renewable energy efficiency(like wave and tidal power),and ocean cleanup efforts,significantly reducing marine pollution.Concurrently,robust international agreements are instrumental in the effective management of marine

256、resources.These agreements introduce strict regulations to prevent overfishing and protect marine habitats from destruction.Because of these combined efforts,the health of the marine ecosystem improves.Exploitation and Environmental DegradationInadequate global governance fuels overfishing,unregulat

257、ed marine development,and pollution,drastically diminishing ocean resources.Wealthier nations disproportionately deplete these resources,leaving smaller coastal communities to bear the brunt of environmental harm and resource scarcity.Ignoring sustainable methods leads to a sharp decline in biodiver

258、sity,undermining the blue economys growth,affecting worldwide food security,and disrupting climate balance.These effects are most acutely felt by small coastal communities reliant on the ocean for survival.SCENARIO 1SCENARIO 23.HOW WILL COUNTRIES AND BUSINESSES COMMIT TO DECARBONIZATION?NEXT SCENARI

259、O|THREATS&OPPORTUNITITES|STRATEGIC QUESTIONS|RETURN TO UNCERTAINTIESSCENARIO 1SCENARIO 244 2024 Future Today Institute.All Rights Reserved.UNCERTAINTIESEXECUTIVE SUMMARY2024An Expanded Environmental Support EcosystemCountries expand their environmental efforts beyond a narrow focus on renewable ener

260、gy to include broader ecosystem support.This involves enhancing infrastructure such as power grids and EV charging networks,implementing environmental,social,and governance(ESG)policies,and bringing greater transparency to carbon trading schemes.The aim is to take a more holistic approach to sustain

261、ing healthy ecosystems while still continuing the transition toward clean energy.Grid Optimization Energy grids have been upgraded through deployment of advanced energy storage systems,such as large-scale batteries and pumped hydro facilities.We now store excess renewable energy.There is widespread

262、adoption of highly efficient electric heat pumps for heating and cooling to reduce energy use and curb emissions.New ESG policies include transparency for CO2 trading schemes.Businesses supporting optimized grid initiatives benefit from reduced energy costs thanks to improved stability and more ener

263、gy-efficient technologies.These businesses also tap into emerging renewable energy markets,creating new revenue streams.Those leading the transition to sustainable power grids have a first-mover advantage.Environmental Efforts StagnatePersistent power outages and insufficient electric vehicle infras

264、tructure disrupt economic activities,causing a dip in productivity and risking job losses.Since ESG regulations vary across regions,compliance is difficult.This leads to higher operational expenses and hampered economic expansion.A lack of transparency in carbon trading markets breeds investor skept

265、icism,obstructing the development of green finance.3.HOW WILL COUNTRIES AND BUSINESSES COMMIT TO DECARBONIZATION?NEXT SCENARIO|THREATS&OPPORTUNITITES|STRATEGIC QUESTIONS|RETURN TO UNCERTAINTIESSCENARIO 1SCENARIO 245 2024 Future Today Institute.All Rights Reserved.UNCERTAINTIESEXECUTIVE SUMMARY2024In

266、clusive,Multifaceted Environmental ProtectionThe concept of environmental protection has evolved to become more inclusive.Countries and businesses now recognize that it encompasses efforts to mitigate climate change and initiatives for biodiversity conservation and the promotion of humane working co

267、nditions.This broader approach integrates ecological sustainability with social responsibility,reflecting a more holistic understanding of our interconnected world.Holistic Benefits Are Realized Nations prioritize the conservation of diverse ecosystems,leading to increased ecotourism,research opport

268、unities,and sustainable resource management.Responding to labor group advocacy,businesses adopt fair labor practices,including raising wages and prioritizing safer work environments.Companies embrace comprehensive sustainability strategies that integrate ecological,social,and economic considerations

269、,leading to significant reductions in resource waste and improved financial resilience.These strategies are effective because they strike a balance between environmental consciousness and business viability,aligning with consumer preferences for environmentally responsible goods and services.Over-re

270、gulation and Complexity DominateExpanded environmental protection efforts bring complex and often competing regulations to the forefront,and governments have to wrestle with noncompliance and enforcement challenges.Businesses face exorbitant costs navigating this convoluted regulatory landscape,stif

271、ling innovation and hindering economic growth.The high cost of transitioning to environmentally friendly legislation poses barriers to entry for smaller businesses,reducing market competition.In striving to meet a multitude of environmental goals,overemphasis on specific areas like biodiversity cons

272、ervation diverts finite resources from urgent climate mitigation needs,impeding overall sustainability progress.3.HOW WILL COUNTRIES AND BUSINESSES COMMIT TO DECARBONIZATION?THREATS&OPPORTUNITITES|STRATEGIC QUESTIONS|RETURN TO UNCERTAINTIESTHREATS1 Compliance Complexity Diverse and changing ESG regu

273、lations across regions can complicate compliance efforts,increasing operational costs and reducing competitiveness.2 Technological Obsolescence Rapid advancements in energy technologies could render existing products and services obsolete,posing a threat to businesses unable to innovate quickly.3 Im

274、plementation Costs The costs associated with adopting comprehensive sustainability strategies could be significant,particularly for small and medium-sized enterprises(SMEs).OPPORTUNITIES1 Short-Term Gains Businesses prioritizing short-term economic gains over sustainability may benefit from lower co

275、mpliance and operational costs in the short term but could find themselves ill-prepared over the mid-term as new technologies and regulations begin to scale.2 New Revenue Streams Companies in the energy storage,electric heat pumps,and renewable energy sectors could tap into new revenue streams as th

276、eir technologies and services become increasingly in demand.3 Comprehensive Sustainability Companies that adopt and integrate broad sustainability strategies can appeal to a wider customer base,reduce waste,and improve operational efficiencies.46 2024 Future Today Institute.All Rights Reserved.EXECU

277、TIVE SUMMARY20243.HOW WILL COUNTRIES AND BUSINESSES COMMIT TO DECARBONIZATION?OPPORTUNITIES&THREATSSTRATEGIC QUESTIONS|RETURN TO UNCERTAINTIES47 2024 Future Today Institute.All Rights Reserved.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY20243.HOW WILL COUNTRIES AND BUSINESSES COMMIT TO DECARBONIZATION?How is your business lev

278、eraging technological advancements in marine technology to promote sustainable growth within the blue economy?What measures are in place to navigate the complexity of expanded environmental regulations without stifling innovation or economic performance?How is your business diversifying its operatio

279、ns or supply chains to ensure resilience and sustained growth?How is your business preparing to align with new ESG policies,and what investments are being made to upgrade or support the infrastructure for renewable energy and grid optimization?What strategies are in place to adapt to and comply with

280、 international marine resource management agreements,such as in your supply chain practices?14253STRATEGIC QUESTIONS04How will humans prioritize their work environments in the future,and what will these preferred workplaces look like?48 2024 Future Today Institute.All Rights Reserved.EXECUTIVE SUMMA

281、RY202449 2024 Future Today Institute.All Rights Reserved.UNCERTAINTIESEXECUTIVE SUMMARY2024How will humans prioritize their work environments in the future,and what will these preferred workplaces look like?Work Is Task-DependentPurpose-Driven LocationsDecentralized Work CommunitiesSmart Workspaces

282、Empower TalentAI Agents Manage LogisticsPersonalized Coworking EcosystemsDivision in Urban AreasGET THE DETAILSGET THE DETAILSGET THE DETAILSReskilling for Task-Based WorkEnabled by Smart Workspaces and AI AgentsSCENARIO 1SCENARIO 250 2024 Future Today Institute.All Rights Reserved.UNCERTAINTIESEXEC

283、UTIVE SUMMARY2024Work Is Task-Dependent Companies emphasize skill-focused tasks over traditional role-based assignments.This approach opens up opportunities for both fixed-location and remote workers,breaking down previous barriers in talent pools.Consequently,employees have the flexibility to work

284、from home or community-based locations.Decentralized Work CommunitiesThe social elements and team structures of traditional offices diminish in importance.Without defined roles anchoring them together,employees perform their individual tasks remotely.Workers split time between truly remote work and

285、convening in smaller satellite workspaces when they want a sense of community.Employees enjoy the flexibility to simultaneously hold multiple“careers,”contributing varied tasks to an ecosystem of employers rather than being siloed at any single organization.Reskilling for Task-Based WorkEnsuring the

286、 right skills for each job is a priority.Sensitive to the high search costs for new talent,companies are interested in retaining and training existing employees to meet evolving task needs.Traditional offices are nimble learning centers focused on immersive training for current staff.This cultivated

287、 talent pipeline of cross-functional employees,versed in specific on-demand abilities,replaces siloed departments.Companies equip their workforce with precise capabilities rather than seeking elusive candidate fits.4.HOW WILL HUMANS PRIORITIZE THEIR WORK ENVIRONMENTS IN THE FUTURE,AND WHAT WILL THES

288、E PREFERRED WORKPLACES LOOK LIKE?NEXT SCENARIO|THREATS&OPPORTUNITITES|STRATEGIC QUESTIONS|RETURN TO UNCERTAINTIESSCENARIO 1SCENARIO 24.HOW WILL HUMANS PRIORITIZE THEIR WORK ENVIRONMENTS IN THE FUTURE,AND WHAT WILL THESE PREFERRED WORKPLACES LOOK LIKE?51 2024 Future Today Institute.All Rights Reserve

289、d.UNCERTAINTIESEXECUTIVE SUMMARY2024Enabled by Smart Workspaces and AI AgentsWorkflows are enabled by fluid,personalized environments that empower productivity with human and artificial partners working in concert.People are free to perform,augmented by supportive spaces that travel with them.Smart

290、Workspaces Empower TalentOffices function as intelligent computing zones.Spatial computing and natural language processing enable embodied interaction.Employees tasks and projects surface on walls and tables as they enter a room.Workers can literally get a grasp on their work by manipulating 3D proj

291、ections by hand.Voice commands replace typing for nimble modification.Employees gain sensory proximity to their work.Previously abstract digital files are now tangible in augmented environments that both feel familiar and unleash workspace innovation.AI Agents Manage LogisticsSpecialized AI agents h

292、andle distinct tasks.A product manager AI agent could aid market analysis,prioritize features,and develop business cases.Meanwhile,a developer agent would focus on automating code generation and detecting bugs.Each persons AI agent coordinates to remove logistical burdens.Christinas assistant tracks

293、 that she prefers morning meetings.Jeffs assistant knows he favors early afternoons.By sharing insights into their humans constraints,the assistants identify 11 a.m.as the optimal meeting time.Because the assistants dynamically adjust activities based on their humans context,they enable new flexibil

294、ity:Workers can perform efficiently wherever they happen to be.NEXT SCENARIO|THREATS&OPPORTUNITITES|STRATEGIC QUESTIONS|RETURN TO UNCERTAINTIESSCENARIO 1SCENARIO 24.HOW WILL HUMANS PRIORITIZE THEIR WORK ENVIRONMENTS IN THE FUTURE,AND WHAT WILL THESE PREFERRED WORKPLACES LOOK LIKE?52 2024 Future Toda

295、y Institute.All Rights Reserved.UNCERTAINTIESEXECUTIVE SUMMARY2024Purpose-Driven LocationsWorkers want transparency and a seat at the table to make company decisions.Labor unions and employees continue to push for greater autonomy and new benefit packages and locations.Companies join together to off

296、er a complex of potential work environments,creating stability in some urban regions.Personalized Coworking Ecosystems Employees have access to coworking ecosystems that cater to their lifestyles.For health buffs,wellness hubs provide gyms,cold plunges,and saunas.Parents join family-friendly sites w

297、ith childcare and nursing spaces.Rather than isolated offices,companies cluster in amenity-rich locales to give workers choices.Workers evaluate these full experience packages when considering job opportunities.Companies differentiate with tailored sites while still coming together in broader mixed-

298、use developments.Competing businesses may not share ecosystems,but complementary industries do,recognizing the potential for expanded talent recruitment and retention.Division in Urban AreasThe urban centers of cities are becoming patchworks of utilitarian spaces that lack the vibrancy and interconn

299、ectedness of traditional urban life.As offices emptied out due to employee cynicism,businesses turned their properties into lab spaces,vertical farms,and storage.Socio-economic divides are deep,as these spaces do not address communal needs,only corporate interests.Once vibrant downtowns focus on eff

300、iciency and production versus community connection.Manufacturers are using the empty spaces to fill warehouses and production sites closer to their consumers.Malls and other shopping facilities that moved out of downtown now compete with these manufacturing centers.THREATS&OPPORTUNITITES|STRATEGIC Q

301、UESTIONS|RETURN TO UNCERTAINTIESTHREATS1 Ethical Challenges with AI Integration Integrating AI agents into the workforce introduces cultural and ethical challenges,including dependency on technology,potential job displacement concerns,and ethical considerations around AI decision-making.2 Overdepend

302、ence on Technology Heavy reliance on smart workspaces and AI for operational efficiency could lead to overdependence on technology,making companies vulnerable to tech failures,outages,or obsolescence.3 Fraud Risk As decentralized work scales alongside increasingly sophisticated AI,various forms of d

303、eepfakes could present a security risk to remote working environments,necessitating businesses to improve their cybersecurity preparedness.OPPORTUNITIES1 Talent Ecosystem Development Companies and industries can develop talent ecosystems that foster cross-pollination of skills and ideas by creating

304、networks of complementary businesses and coworking spaces that enhance talent satisfaction and retention.2 Urban Redevelopment and Repurposing Municipalities and businesses will need advice on repurposing urban spaces that have lost their traditional vibrancy due to shifts in work patterns.3 Purpose

305、-Driven Workspace Solutions Companies may create purpose-driven locations and co-working ecosystems that align with their employees values and lifestyle preferences.This could involve strategic planning for the use of corporate real estate to support community engagement,wellness,and collaboration.5

306、3 2024 Future Today Institute.All Rights Reserved.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY20244.HOW WILL HUMANS PRIORITIZE THEIR WORK ENVIRONMENTS IN THE FUTURE,AND WHAT WILL THESE PREFERRED WORKPLACES LOOK LIKE?OPPORTUNITIES&THREATSSTRATEGIC QUESTIONS|RETURN TO UNCERTAINTIES54 2024 Future Today Institute.All Rights Reser

307、ved.How can we develop a continuous learning and development ecosystem to ensure our workforce remains adaptable and skilled for future tasks?How can we use new and emerging technologies to foster innovation and creativity in a predominantly remote or hybrid workforce?How can we leverage data and an

308、alytics to improve remote work productivity and employee engagement while respecting privacy and autonomy?What do we need to reevaluate or adjust in order to remain competitive in attracting and retaining top talent as the workspace evolves?In what ways can we leverage smart workspaces and AI agents

309、 to enhance productivity without compromising security,privacy,and employee well-being?14253EXECUTIVE SUMMARY20244.HOW WILL HUMANS PRIORITIZE THEIR WORK ENVIRONMENTS IN THE FUTURE,AND WHAT WILL THESE PREFERRED WORKPLACES LOOK LIKE?STRATEGIC QUESTIONS05In the context of increasing protectionism and g

310、eopolitical tensions,what is the future of the global chip manufacturing industry?55 2024 Future Today Institute.All Rights Reserved.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY202456 2024 Future Today Institute.All Rights Reserved.UNCERTAINTIESEXECUTIVE SUMMARY2024In the context of increasing protectionism and geopolitical t

311、ensions,what is the future of the global chip manufacturing industry?Chip Imports and Exports Are Increasingly RestrictedProtectionist Policies Result in a Skills GapThe Cost of Data Centers RiseThe US DominatesChina RalliesIn-House Production and Training Ramp UpOpen Borders for Chip Industry Growt

312、hTech Companies as New Energy ProvidersThe End User PaysGET THE DETAILSGET THE DETAILSGET THE DETAILSSCENARIO 1SCENARIO 257 2024 Future Today Institute.All Rights Reserved.UNCERTAINTIESEXECUTIVE SUMMARY2024Chip Imports and Exports Are Increasingly Restricted The industry continues its pivot toward s

313、trategic autonomy.Defensively,the US is onshoring chip production to prevent supply chain disruptions like those during the Covid semiconductor shortage.Offensively,the US is strategically preventing exports to get a leg up in the AI race against China.Meanwhile,independent companies,like OpenAI,wan

314、t to create new types of chips that wont run afoul of government regulations.The US Dominates The US tightens enforcement of chip exports to prevent adversaries from attaining US chips and manufacturing equipment.US allies are required to do the same.Technologies like geotracking prevent leaks in ex

315、port controls,thereby more effectively curbing US technologies from getting to China and Russia.This challenges those countries reliance on foreign chips,pressuring their big tech to innovate with less sophisticated resources.Since China is a major player in the consumer electronics market,the restr

316、ictions lead to higher prices and limited availability of various consumer goods worldwide.China RalliesUS-led export controls do not prevent China and other adversaries from acquiring powerful chips from companies like Nvidia.Black markets emerge for such chips,and IP espionage efforts ramp up.With

317、 these powerful chips,Chinas AI rivals US AI companies in capabilities.There is a bifurcation of“Eastern AI”and“Western AI.”China also continues to dominate global legacy chip production.Legacy chips underpin everything from microwaves to military weapons systems.China boxes out foreign competitors

318、through dumping,rendering the US dependent on China,at least for legacy chips.5.IN THE CONTEXT OF INCREASING PROTECTIONISM AND GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS,WHAT IS THE FUTURE OF THE GLOBAL CHIP MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY?NEXT SCENARIO|THREATS&OPPORTUNITITES|STRATEGIC QUESTIONS|RETURN TO UNCERTAINTIESSCENARIO 1

319、SCENARIO 258 2024 Future Today Institute.All Rights Reserved.UNCERTAINTIESEXECUTIVE SUMMARY2024Protectionist Policies Result in a Skills Gap The expertise required for chip design and production,previously outsourced affordably,is now lacking domestically.As a result,manufacturing chips domestically

320、 has become a costly endeavor.This has sparked intense competition among companies to attract and acquire talent specialized in chip design and manufacturing.In-House Production and Training Ramp Up Semiconductor companies are bringing chip production in-house and cultivating essential skills intern

321、ally.They also in-source skills training by reaching out to high school students,offering a direct path into the burgeoning US chip industry.This new model positions the semiconductor sector as a realm of new blue-collar workers.By providing in-house training and certification,these companies offer

322、young talent a debt-free alternative to college education,enabling them to start earning immediately while learning specialized skills.Open Borders for Chip Industry GrowthProgress in opening new fabrication plants,funded by the US Chips Act,has been slower than anticipated.The fabs hosts,including

323、cities in Texas,Ohio,and Florida,worry about becoming modern equivalents of Detroitwhere initial high investments wont yield long-term benefits.States traditionally resistant to open immigration policies are shifting their stance,and the US is responding with expedited visas for skilled workers,part

324、icularly from Taiwan,leading to a notable brain drain in the island nation and increased tensions with China.5.IN THE CONTEXT OF INCREASING PROTECTIONISM AND GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS,WHAT IS THE FUTURE OF THE GLOBAL CHIP MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY?NEXT SCENARIO|THREATS&OPPORTUNITITES|STRATEGIC QUESTIONS|RE

325、TURN TO UNCERTAINTIESSCENARIO 1SCENARIO 259 2024 Future Today Institute.All Rights Reserved.UNCERTAINTIESEXECUTIVE SUMMARY2024The Cost of Data Centers Rise As AI-driven workloads intensify,the operational costs of data centers are escalating.The increased demand for processing power and energy to su

326、pport complex AI tasks significantly drives up the expenses associated with maintaining and running these facilities.Tech Companies as New Energy Providers Tech companies are venturing into producing alternative,cost-effective energy sources like small modular reactors and geothermal power.This move

327、 is not just about affordability;it represents a leap in overcoming long-standing negative perceptions of nuclear energy and its historical barriers of high costs and lengthy construction times.The implications are profound,and not just for the energy sector:Apartment buildings will be powered,coole

328、d,and lit efficiently by Amazon,and entire neighborhoods receive clean,cost-effective energy from Google or Microsoft.The End User PaysData center efficiency advancements have reached a plateau,compelling the industry to focus on expansion to meet increasing workload demands.Providers can try to sta

329、y in densely populated areas that offer skilled labor availability and robust fiber networks,but theyll have to deal with increasing restrictions amid concerns that data centers exacerbate energy shortages.Or they could venture into less ideal locations lacking infrastructure and requiring substanti

330、al capital investment.Either option presents an increased cost of digital services for consumers and a significant ripple effect across the economy.5.IN THE CONTEXT OF INCREASING PROTECTIONISM AND GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS,WHAT IS THE FUTURE OF THE GLOBAL CHIP MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY?THREATS&OPPORTUNITIT

331、ES|STRATEGIC QUESTIONS|RETURN TO UNCERTAINTIESTHREATS1 Big tech gets bolder Utilities could become disintermediated by tech companies,who find a competitive advantage in bundling energy with other services.2 Regulatory disruption Changes in trade policies and regulations in key markets could affect

332、access to critical chip technologies and materials.3 Tech transfer Intellectual property and sensitive technology become entangled in technology transfer regulations,especially in countries involved in geopolitical tensions.OPPORTUNITIES1 Cultivate partner and supplier relationships Businesses will

333、need to develop new partners,manufacturers,and markets so they have first mover advantage if geopolitical tensions rise unchecked,impacting access to key components and markets.2 Get local Companies may Invest in local or regional production capabilities to reduce dependence on global markets,increasing customization capabilities and time to market.3 Fund alternatives Technology firms must invest