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1、June 2024Food Outlook BIANNUAL REPORT ON GLOBAL FOOD MARKETS 1101251401551702014-2016=1002024202320222021FAO Food Price IndexDNOSAJJMAMFJISSN 0251-1959 BIANNUAL REPORT ON GLOBAL FOOD MARKETS Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Rome,2024Food OutlookRequired citation:FAO.2024.Food

2、Outlook Biannual report on global food markets.Food Outlook,June 2024.Rome.https:/doi.org/10.4060/cd1158enThe designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Food and Agriculture Organization

3、of the United Nations(FAO)concerning the legal or development status of any country,territory,city or area or of its authorities,or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers,whether or not these have been patented,does n

4、ot imply that these have been endorsed or recommended by FAO in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned.ISSN 0251-1959 print E-ISSN 1560-8182 onlineISBN 978-92-5-138860-0 FAO,2024 Some rights reserved.This work is made available under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonComme

5、rcial-ShareAlike 3.0IGO licence(CCBY-NC-SA3.0IGO;https:/creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/igo/legalcode).Under the terms of this licence,this work may be copied,redistributed and adapted for non-commercial purposes,provided that the work is appropriately cited.In any use of this work,there s

6、hould be no suggestion that FAO endorses any specific organization,products or services.The use of the FAO logo is not permitted.If the work is adapted,then it must be licensed under the same or equivalent Creative Commons licence.If a translation of this work is created,it must include the followin

7、g disclaimer along with the required citation:“This translation was not created by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations(FAO).FAO is not responsible for the content or accuracy of this translation.The original Language edition shall be the authoritative edition.”Disputes arisin

8、g under the licence that cannot be settled amicably will be resolved by mediation and arbitration as described in Article 8 of the licence except as otherwise provided herein.The applicable mediation rules will be the mediation rules of the World Intellectual Property Organization http:/www.wipo.int

9、/amc/en/mediation/rules and any arbitration will be conducted in accordance with the Arbitration Rules of the United Nations Commission on International Trade Law(UNCITRAL).Third-party materials.Users wishing to reuse material from this work that is attributed to a third party,such as tables,figures

10、 or images,are responsible for determining whether permission is needed for that reuse and for obtaining permission from the copyright holder.The risk of claims resulting from infringement of any third-party-owned component in the work rests solely with the user.Sales,rights and licensing.FAO inform

11、ation products are available on the FAO website(www.fao.org/publications)and can be purchased through publications-salesfao.org.Requests for commercial use should be submitted via:www.fao.org/contact-us/licence-request.Queries regarding rights and licensing should be submitted to:copyrightfao.org.Ph

12、oto credits(left to right/top to bottom):Istock;Istock;iStock;Shutterstock;iStock;Shutterstock;iStock;iStock;iStock;Shutterstock;FAO;Shutterstock;iStock;Shutterstock;Shutterstock;iStockInternational rice prices have remained elevated amid lingering export curbs and strong purchases by some Asian cou

13、ntries.However,early prospects for 2024/25 point to world production reaching a fresh peak,which could revive rice utilization growth and push stockpiles to a record high.RICEThe outlook for global coarse grain markets points to another season of abundant supplies with stocks seen reaching their hig

14、hest level since 2017/18.International trade in coarse grains will likely decline in 2024/25,with anticipated smaller export availabilities in Brazil and Ukraine and weaker import demand from China.COARSE GRAINSImproved global supply prospects for the 2023/24 season led to significant declines in in

15、ternational sugar prices.Driven by lower sugar quotations,world sugar consumption is foreseen to expand above its recent trend.Global trade in sugar is anticipated to expand,amid ample export availabilities and a stronger global import demand.SUGARIn 2023/24,forecasts of record world outputs for oil

16、seeds and meals/cakes are expected to lead to a further stock accumulation in oilmeals,whereas an anticipated marginal increase in oils/fats production,amid below-potential palm oil outputs,could be outstripped by consumption growth,thus resulting in a somewhat tightening global supply-demand balanc

17、e for vegetable oils.OILCROPSGlobal meat production is forecast to expand marginally in 2024,driven by an increase in poultry meat production,notwithstanding possible negative impacts stemming from extreme weather events,the spread of animal diseases and thin profit margins.Meanwhile,global trade in

18、 meat will likely rebound as demand is expected to exceed domestic supplies in leading meat-importing countries.MEATGlobal wheat markets are expected to contract in 2024/25 as global wheat production,utilization,trade and stocks are all forecast to decline from their respective 2023/24 levels.Noneth

19、eless,ample supplies and lower demand for feed and other uses globally are likely to maintain a soft tone in wheat markets.WHEATIn 2024,stable landings from capture fisheries are expected to be complemented by an expanding aquaculture sector.Stifled overall demand,coupled with an increased supply of

20、 some aquaculture species,has caused a fall in prices for certain aquatic products.Overall,rising production costs and stagnant consumer spending remain challenging.FISHERIESWorld milk production is forecast at nearly 979 million tonnes in 2024,up 1.4 percent from 2023.Asia will continue to lead pro

21、duction growth,driven by rising dairy cow numbers and growing contributions of large-scale dairy farms.Meanwhile,global trade in dairy products is predicted to recover moderately despite subdued import demand foreseen for some leading importing countries.DAIRYFAOs latest forecasts point to increases

22、 in production and higher closing stocks across several basic foodstuffs.However,global food production systems remain vulnerable to shocks stemming from extreme weather events,geopolitical tensions,policy changes and developments in other markets,potentially tipping the delicate demand-supply balan

23、ces and impacting prices and world food security.HIGHLIGHTSSPECIAL FEATUREFocus on fertilizersFertilizers have been subject to economic,environmental,and geopolitical disruptors.In 2023,the reduction in energy prices spurred production and improved supply,which helped ease prices and fueled a robust

24、 rebound.The 2024/25 outlook for fertilizers suggests stability,but shocks to energy markets continue to pose risks.Dynamic effects of shocks to shipping costs on the food import billRecent restrictions and disruptions to maritime transportation have added pressure on international trade.The feature

25、 article analyses the dynamic effects of shocks to the shipping costs on the food import bill.The analysis distinguishes between modes of maritime transportation dry bulk and container and examines how these shocks affect net food-importing developing countries.vFocus on fertilizersp6511012514015517

26、02014-2016=1002024202320222021DNOSAJJMAMFJFAO Food Price Index p1261-9 MARKET SUMMARIES10-63Wheat 11Coarse grains 17Rice 25Oilcrops,oils and meals 31Sugar 39Meat and meat products 44Milk and milk products 51Fish and fishery products 57 MARKET ASSESSMENTS64-77Focus on fertilizers 65Dynamic effects of

27、 shocks to shipping costs on the food import bill 71 SPECIAL FEATURES92-129 STATISTICAL TABLES78-91Futures markets 79Ocean freight rates 83Global food import bill 86The FAO price indices 88 MARKET INDICATORSACKNOWLEDGEMENTSviDynamic effects of shocks to shipping costs on the food import billp71Globa

28、l food import billp86ShutterstockiStockFAOFOOD OUTLOOKJUNE 2024viACKNOWLEDGEMENTSThe Food Outlook report is a product of the FAO Markets and Trade Division of the Economic and Social Development stream.This report was prepared under the overall guidance of Boubaker Ben-Belhassen,Director and Monika

29、Tothova,Senior Economist.Market assessments were written by a team of economists,whose names appear under their respective market summary contributions.A contribution by the International Grains Council on ocean freight rates for the market indicators section is also gratefully acknowledged.The repo

30、rt benefited from research support from many staff,namely,David Bedford,Victoria Johnston,Emanuele Marocco,Grace Karumathy,Lavinia Lucarelli,Emanuele Mazzini,Marco Milo,Fabio Palmeri,Harout Dekermendjian and the Fisheries and Aquaculture Statistics Team and GLOBEFISH.Special thanks go to David Bedfo

31、rd and Lavinia Lucarelli for preparing the charts and statistical tables and to Elisa Miccinilli for her administrative support.Additionally,the team is grateful to Ettore Vecchione for the desktop publishing and Amber Paulen for her valuable editorial assistance.MARKETSUMMARIESMarket summaries1FOOD

32、 OUTLOOKJUNE 2024FAOs first forecast for the 2024/25 season points to an overall comfortable global supply-and-demand situation.Current prospects for world cereal production indicate an output of 2 846 million tonnes(including rice in milled equivalent),virtually on par with the record outturn in 20

33、23/24.Among the major cereals,global maize and wheat outputs are forecast to decline.The recent adverse weather conditions in the Black Sea region will likely result in a downgrade in world wheat production.1 By contrast,outputs of barley,rice and sorghum are all predicted to increase.World cereal t

34、otal utilization in 2024/25 is expected to increase by 0.5 percent to a new record high of 2 851 million tonnes.Global use of cereals for food consumption is predicted to expand the most,up 1.1 percent from 2023/24.This increase is foreseen to be led by rice(up 1.4 percent),followed by coarse grains

35、(up 1.2 percent)and wheat(up 0.8 percent).Global feed utilization of cereals is also forecast to increase,up 0.4 percent,driven by strong demand for coarse grains(especially maize and sorghum)for animal feed,while feed uses of wheat and rice are both forecast to contract.World cereal stocks will lik

36、ely increase by 1.5 percent(13.2 million tonnes)above their opening levels to a record 897 million tonnes,reflecting expectations of higher inventories of coarse grains(with increases for maize,barley and sorghum)and rice.By contrast,wheat stocks could decline to their lowest level since 2021/22.Wit

37、h utilization also forecast to rise in 2024/25,the global cereal stock-to-use ratio will likely remain close to its 2023/24 level,around 30.9 percent.Forecast at 481 million tonnes,world trade in cereals is predicted to decline by 1.3 percent from the 2023/24 level to 481 million tonnes in 2024/25.L

38、ower trade prospects for maize underlie most of this anticipated decline,with smaller decreases in wheat and barley trade also contributing to the contraction.By contrast,international rice trade is forecast to recover.In May 2024,the FAO Cereal Price Index averaged 118.7 points,down 8.2 percent fro

39、m its value one year earlier and 5.7 percent below its five-year average level for the same month.This decrease reflects sharp declines(both year on year and compared to average levels).in the world prices of wheat and coarse grains,which outweighed increases in rice prices compared to their values

40、last year and the five-year averages.1 This statement reflects changes that occurred after the closure of the database that this report is based on.CEREALSCEREAL GRAIN PRODUCTION,UTILIZATION AND STOCKS1 Rice in milled equivalent.2 Trade refers to exports based on a July/June marketing season for whe

41、at and coarse grains and on a January/December basis for rice.3 May not equal the difference between supply(defined as production plus opening stocks)and utilization due to differences in indivdual countries marketing years.4 Low-Income Food-Deficit countries marketing years.WORLD CEREAL MARKET AT A

42、 GLANCE112022/232023/24 estim.2024/25 fcastChange:2024/25 over 2023/24million tonnes%WORLD BALANCEProduction2 812.42 847.42 846.30.0Trade2 479.3 487.4 481.3-1.3Total utilization2 792.42 835.92 851.00.5Food1 184.91 200.11 213.31.1Feed1 043.51 063.81 068.20.4Other uses 564.0 572.1 569.5-0.5Ending stoc

43、ks3 872.0 884.0 897.21.5SUPPLY AND DEMAND INDICATORSPer caput food consumption:World(kg/yr)148.6 149.2 149.40.1LIFDC4(kg/yr)142.1 142.5 141.8-0.5World stocks-to-use ratio(%)30.731.030.9Major exporters stocks-to-disappearance ratio(%)21.021.421.4 FAO CEREAL PRICE INDEX(2014-2016=100)202220232024 Jan-

44、MayChange:Jan/May 2024 over Jan/May 2023%155 131 115-2225046067088018002200260030002024/252022/232020/212018/192016/17million tonnesmillion tonnesfcastStocks(right axis)Production(left axis)Utilization(left axis)Market summaries2FOOD OUTLOOKJUNE 2024In 2024,global wheat production is expected to dec

45、rease marginally(0.1 percent)from the previous seasons level down to 787 million tonnes.Most of the downturn in output is expected to result from foreseen production declines in the European Union,Ukraine,Trkiye,the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and Morocco.The recent adverse

46、weather conditions in the Black Sea region will likely result in a downgrade in world wheat production.1Global wheat utilization in 2024/25 is expected to contract by 0.8 percent from the record level reached in 2023/24 to 794 million tonnes,falling marginally below the ten-year trend.While food con

47、sumption of wheat should continue to rise,supported by population growth,wheat feed use and other uses are forecast to fall by 3.8 percent and 5.0 percent,respectively,with the declines anticipated to be concentrated mostly in China and India.With global production forecast to fall short of utilizat

48、ion,world wheat stocks are likely to decrease from their opening levels by 1.6 percent to 307 million tonnes by the close of seasons in 2025.Although this would mark a second consecutive year-on-year decline,the world wheat stocks-to-use ratio forecast for 2024/25,which now stands at 38.0 percent,in

49、dicates an overall comfortable supply level.A significant drop expected in the European Unions inventories accounts for most of the forecast global drawdown,with smaller decreases foreseen in Kazakhstan and the Russian Federation.Helping to balance those declines,stocks should increase in China,Indi

50、a and the United States of America.The preliminary forecast for world trade in wheat in 2024/25(July/June)stands at 198 million tonnes,indicating a potential 1.2 percent contraction from the 2023/24 level.The decline mainly stems from anticipated lower imports by China and the European Union,along w

51、ith smaller export volumes expected from the Russian Federation,Ukraine and Trkiye.International wheat export prices continued a steady downward trend over the 2023/24 season,reflecting ample supplies and strong competition among exporters,especially from robust,competitively priced exports from the

52、 Russian Federation.With the 2024/25 season about to start,world wheat prices are below their levels of last year as well as their five-year average values.With expectations of falling global utilization and larger harvests in several major exporting countries,wheat markets will likely remain under

53、downward pressure in 2024/25.1 This statement reflects changes that occurred after the closure of the database that this report is based on.WHEATContact:Erin Collier Jonathan Pound(Production)WHEAT PRODUCTION,UTILIZATION AND STOCKSWORLD WHEAT MARKET AT A GLANCE1 Trade refers to exports based on a co

54、mmon July/June marketing season.2 May not equal the difference between supply(defined as production plus carryover stocks)and total utilization due to differences in individual country marketing years.3 Major exporters include Argentina,Australia,Canada,the European Union,Kazakhstan,the Russian Fede

55、ration,Ukraine and the UnitedStates of America.4 Derived from the International Grains Council(IGC)wheat index.2022/232023/24 estim.2024/25 fcastChange:2024/25 over 2023/24million tonnes%WORLD BALANCEProduction 806.0 787.7 786.7-0.1Trade1 201.7 200.4 198.0-1.2Total utilization 780.0 800.3 794.0-0.8F

56、ood 531.7 536.7 544.31.4Feed 150.3 152.4 162.06.3Other uses 89.9 90.9 93.93.3Ending stocks2 322.2 311.8 306.8-1.6SUPPLY AND DEMAND INDICATORSPer caput food consumption:World(kg/yr)67.3 67.7 67.6-0.1LIFDC(kg/yr)41.6 41.7 41.3-1.0World stocks-to-use ratio(%)40.339.338.0Major exporters stocks-to-disapp

57、earance ratio3(%)21.220.218.1 FAO WHEAT PRICE INDEX4(2014-2016=100)202220232024 Jan-MayChange:Jan/May 2024 over Jan/May 2023%165 127 109-21%10015020025030035060065070075080085024/2522/2320/2118/1916/17million tonnesmillion tonnesfcastStocks(right axis)Production(left axis)Utilization(left axis)Marke

58、t summaries3FOOD OUTLOOKJUNE 2024FAOs initial production forecast indicates a marginal(0.3 percent)decline in world production of coarse grains from the record 2023 level to 1 525 million tonnes in 2024.The decline stems from an anticipated 1.3 percent decrease in global maize production,led by fore

59、seen smaller outputs in Brazil and the United States of America.By contrast,world production of barley is seen rising by 3.6 percent,largely concentrated in the European Union,as is global sorghum production,by 4.1 percent,with most of the increase expected in Argentina and the United States.In 2024

60、/25,global trade in coarse grains is forecast to contract by 2.4 percent to 230 million tonnes,reflecting expected declines in maize and barley trade.Lower imports from China foreseen for both maize and barley are a major factor behind those declines.On the export side,expectations of smaller sales

61、from two of the four major exporters,Brazil and Ukraine(on the account of lower exportable maize surpluses),as well as from Paraguay and South Africa,are seen reducing global trade volumes.As regards exports of barley,reductions in sales from Australia,Kazakhstan and Ukraine are all forecast to cont

62、ribute to the decrease in global barley trade.World total utilization of coarse grains is forecast to reach a new record high of 1 526 million tonnes,representing a 1.0 percent increase from 2023/24.The year-on-year increase will be driven primarily by predicted growth in the feed use of maize and s

63、orghum,especially in China,Brazil,the Russian Federation and the United States.World stocks of coarse grains with the close of the seasons in 2025 will likely rise by 3.4 percent to 385 million tonnes,with expected increases in the stocks of all major coarse grains.Making up the bulk of the increase

64、,global maize stocks are predicted to rise by 3.5 percent,mostly on expectations of build-ups in the European Union and China,along with smaller increases in Brazil and the United States.If it materializes,the projected increase would lead to a higher world stocks-to-use ratio and a higher ratio of

65、major exporters closing stocks to their total disappearance,indicating a comfortable global supply situation again in 2024/25.The ample supplies outlook is expected to maintain a bearish tone in coarse grain markets in 2024/25.World coarse grain prices have already started the season at well below-a

66、verage levels.COARSE GRAINSContact:Erin Collier Jonathan Pound(Production)COARSE GRAIN PRODUCTION,UTILIZATION AND STOCKS1 Trade refers to exports based on a July/June marketing season for wheat and coarse grains and on a January/December marketing season for rice.2 May not equal the difference betwe

67、en supply(defined as productionn plus opening stocks)and utilization due to differences in indivdual countries marketing years.3 Low-Income Food-Deficit countries marketing years.WORLD COARSE GRAIN MARKET AT A GLANCE12022/232023/24 estim.2024/25 fcastChange:2024/25 over 2023/24million tonnes%WORLD B

68、ALANCEProduction1 480.81 529.61 524.6-0.3Trade1 224.7 235.6 229.9-2.4Total utilization1 487.01 510.71 525.61.0Food 225.4 229.2 232.01.2Feed 869.2 883.3 895.01.3Other uses 392.4 398.1 398.70.1Ending stocks2 353.9 372.5 385.33.4SUPPLY AND DEMAND INDICATORSPer caput food consumption:World(kg/yr)28.3 28

69、.5 28.60.4LIFDC4(kg/yr)72.1 72.6 72.0-0.8World stocks-to-use ratio(%)23.424.423.9Major exporters stocks-to-disap-pearance ratio3(%)12.713.114.2 FAO COARSE GRAIN PRICE INDEX(2014-2016=100)202220232024 Jan-MayChange:Jan/May 2024 over Jan/May 2023%169 134 108-0.2100175250325400950110012501400155024/252

70、3/2421/2219/2017/1815/16million tonnesmillion tonnesfcastStocks(right axis)Production(left axis)Utilization(left axis)Market summaries4FOOD OUTLOOKJUNE 2024Although much will still depend on how the northern hemispheres summer rains unfold,world rice production is tentatively forecast to expand by 0

71、.9 percent in 2024/25 to a fresh peak of 534.9 million tonnes,as attractive prices and government support are expected to continue to underpin plantings,while improved growing conditions following the dissipation of the El Nio phenomenon may revive yield growth.During 2024/25,world rice utilization

72、is likely to register its first tangible expansion in three seasons,reaching 531.4 million tonnes,as ample supplies could fuel growth in food use.Even so,production is anticipated to exceed total utilization,which should cause world rice stocks at the close of the 2024/25 marketing seasons to increa

73、se by a further 2.7 percent to a record high of 205.1 million tonnes.In contrast to previous seasons,however,accumulations are anticipated to be less concentrated and take place in both rice exporting and importing countries.In 2024,international trade in rice is forecast to decline for the second s

74、uccessive year to a four-year low of 51.4 million tonnes.On the import side,the reduction is expected to be led by lower purchases by African countries.Imports by Asian countries could instead stabilize at comparatively robust levels,while import demand is anticipated to grow in all other regions.On

75、 the export side,among rice exporters,India is seen accounting for much of the forecast trade decline,due to existing curbs on exports of Indian brokens and non-basmati white rice.Nevertheless,robust shipments of other qualities and varieties of rice and exceptions to export prohibitions should keep

76、 India the worlds largest rice supplier.Viet Nam is also predicted to ship less than in 2023,while the export outlook is positive namely for Pakistan,the United States of America and Thailand.Although the upward trend that international rice prices maintained for much of 2022 and 2023 has abated som

77、ewhat in recent months,rice export quotations remain elevated,as reflected by the FAO All Rice Price Index.At an average of 137.3 points in May 2024,the Index was 2.7 percent below its value at the close of 2023,but still 7.5 percent above its year-earlier level.RICEContact:Shirley MustafaRICE PRODU

78、CTION,UTILIZATION AND STOCKSWORLD RICE MARKET AT A GLANCE1 Calendar year exports(second year shown).2 May not equal the difference between supply(defined as production plus carryover stocks)and total utilization due to differences in individual country marketing years.3 Major exporters include India

79、,Pakistan,Thailand,the United States of America and Viet Nam.10012515017520022545047550052555024/2523/2421/2219/2017/1815/16million tonnes,milled eq.million tonnes,milled eq.fcastStocks(right axis)Production(left axis)Utilization(left axis)2022/232023/24 fcast2024/25 fcastChange:2024/25 over 2023/24

80、million tonnes,milled equivalent%WORLD BALANCEProduction525.6530.1534.90.9Trade152.951.453.43.7Total utilization525.3525.0531.41.2Food422.8426.6432.51.4Ending stocks2195.8199.7205.12.7SUPPLY AND DEMAND INDICATORSPer caput food consumption:World(kg/yr)53.053.053.30.5LIFDC(kg/yr)28.428.228.51.0World s

81、tocks-to-use ratio(%)37.337.638.2 Major exporters stocks-to-disappearance ratio3(%)29.231.031.9 FAO RICE PRICE INDEX(2014-2016=100)202220232024 Jan-MayChange:Jan/May 2024 over Jan/May 2023%10913213911.2Market summaries5FOOD OUTLOOKJUNE 2024Global oilseed production is forecast to continue expanding

82、in 2023/24(October/September),likely reaching a record high of 667.6 million tonnes.These gains primarily reflect expectations of higher soybean and sunflower seed outputs,more than offsetting lower production of rapeseed and other oilseeds.The anticipated soybean production growth is driven by a fa

83、vourable production outlook in South America,chiefly due to an increase of harvested areas,outweighing a smaller crop in the United States of America.World sunflower seed production is forecast to rebound from the reduced level registered in the previous season,underpinned by continued output expans

84、ion in the Russian Federation and a partial recovery in Ukraine amid the ongoing war.By contrast,global rapeseed production is set to decrease from the all-time high reached in 2022/23,mainly reflecting lower harvests in Australia and Canada caused by suboptimal moisture conditions.In 2023/24,world

85、output of oils/fats is expected to increase marginally amid stagnating palm oil outputs across major producing countries.At the same time,global consumption is forecast to expand by 2.0 percent from the previous season,supported by rising demand from the biofuel sector.With world utilization set to

86、exceed production,global ending stocks of oils/fats should decline slightly.International trade in vegetable oils could also contract modestly,following reduced import demand,particularly from Asia.Meanwhile,world production of meals/cakes is predicted to rise by 2.8 percent,which would surpass an a

87、nticipated recovery in global utilization,leading to a further accumulation in world oilmeal carry-over stocks.International trade in meals/cakes is also forecast to increase marginally,possibly hitting a fresh record due to improving feed demand from the livestock sector.As for the upcoming 2024/25

88、 season,very preliminary forecasts point to a further production expansion for oilseeds and its derived products.Growth of global supplies of meals/cakes is expected to outpace a foreseen moderate increase in consumption,which should lead to a further inventory replenishment.For oils/fats,a likely l

89、ess buoyant output growth,particularly in view of stagnating palm oil production prospects,could be overshadowed by a modest expansion in utilization,resulting in a contraction in global vegetable oil ending stocks.OILCROPSContact:Di YangFAO MONTHLY INTERNATIONAL PRICE INDICES FOR OILSEEDS,VEGETABLE

90、 OILS AND MEALS/CAKES(2014-2016=100)WORLD OILCROP AND PRODUCT MARKET AT A GLANCENote:Kindly refer to footnote 1 on page 31 and to table 2 on page 34 for further explanations regarding definitions and coverage.070140210280202420232022202120202019201820172016vegetable oilsmeals/cakesoilseeds2021/22202

91、2/23 estim.2023/24 fcastChange:2023/24 over 2022/23million tonnes%TOTAL OILCROPSProduction620.4650.6667.62.6OILS AND FATSProduction247.6256.5259.31.1Supply279.9290.3295.21.7Utilization245.3254.7259.92.0Trade126.9141.1136.5-3.3Global stocks-to-use ratio(%)13.814.113.6Major exporters stocks-to-disappe

92、arance ratio(%)10.99.39.8MEALS AND CAKESProduction159.0166.9171.52.8Supply187.9193.2198.62.8Utilization161.1162.4167.23.0Trade101.3107.9108.90.9Global stocks-to-use ratio(%)16.416.718.0Major exporters stocks-to-disappearance ratio(%)9.68.19.8FAO PRICE INDICES(Jan-Dec)(2014-2016=100)202220232024 Jan-

93、MayChange:Jan-May 2024 over Jan-May 2023%Oilseeds 158 128 115-13.8Meals/cakes 133 127 108-18.9Vegetable oils 188 126 127-3.7Market summaries6FOOD OUTLOOKJUNE 2024FAOs forecast for world sugar production in 2023/24(October/September)is pegged at 179.4 million tonnes,marking a slight uptick of 0.5 mil

94、lion tonnes,or 0.3 percent,from the previous seasons output.This new forecast is up from FAOs preliminary expectations mainly due to a larger-than-earlier anticipated output in Brazil,the worlds largest sugar producer and exporter.The bumper outturn in Brazil along with the anticipated rebounds in C

95、hina and the European Union are expected to more than offset the production declines foreseen in India and Thailand.Global sugar consumption is forecast to continue increasing in 2023/24,up 2.5 million tonnes,or 1.4 percent,from the previous season.Africa and Asia are expected to account for this gr

96、owth,along with an anticipated rebound in Europe from the previous seasons downturn.Despite the anticipated growth in global sugar consumption,the upward revision to the global production forecast should result in a global surplus of 1.9 million tonnes in 2023/24.In 2023/24,the forecast for the worl

97、d sugar trade stands at 63.3 million tonnes,which corresponds to a 1.0 percent increase from the estimated volume for 2022/23.The expansion is the result of an anticipated increase in exportable supplies in Brazil that will more than offset foreseen lower shipments from India and Thailand.On the imp

98、ort side,larger purchases by Asia and Africa are forecast to outweigh a likely sharp decline in Europe.In China,the largest international sugar buyer,imports are officially forecast to increase from last year,despite the rebound in domestic production.By contrast,sugar imports by the European Union

99、are set to drop markedly from last year on the back of higher domestic production.International sugar prices generally declined since reaching their 12-year highs in September 2023,and in May 2024,they dropped to their lowest value since January 2023.The price declines were mostly related to improve

100、d global supply prospects.Additionally,the good start of the new harvest season in Brazil has exerted further downward pressure on prices.The Brazilian real has generally weakened against the United States dollar since October 2023,encouraging exports and contributing to the lower world sugar prices

101、(expressed in United States dollar).SUGARContact:Elmamoun AmroukFabio PalmeriINTERNATIONAL SUGAR PRICES*WORLD SUGAR MARKET AT A GLANCE813182328DNOSAJJMAMFJ20232022202120202024US cents per lb.*As measured by the International Sugar Agreement(ISA)2021/222022/23 estim.2023/24 fcastChange:2023/24 over 2

102、022/23million tonnes%WORLD BALANCEProduction174.6178.8179.40.29Trade*62.462.763.30.97Total utilization173.8174.9177.41.43Ending stocks111.9115.6117.41.52SUPPLY AND DEMAND INDICATORSPer caput food consumption:World(kg/yr)22.022.022.10.55LIFDC(kg/yr)12.412.512.50.40World stocks-to-use ratio(%)64.466.1

103、66.20.09ISA DAILY PRICE AVERAGE(US cents/lb)202220232024 Jan-MayChange:Jan-May 2024 over Jan-May 2023%18.4923.4321.14-3.16%*Trade figures refer to exports.Market summaries7FOOD OUTLOOKJUNE 2024Global meat production in 2024 is forecast to expand marginally to 371 million tonnes(carcass weight equiva

104、lents).Output increases are anticipated in all the regions,except for Asia,most notably of pig meat in China.In 2024,the forecast expansion of global meat production is likely to be led by poultry meat,which is forecast to increase by 1.1 million tonnes,or 0.8 percent year on year,to 146 million ton

105、nes.This expansion will be driven primarily by a strong consumer demand for poultry meat due to its relative affordability coupled with the impact of relatively low feed costs on prices,notwithstanding risks stemming from highly pathogenic avian influenza(HPAI)outbreaks and high operational costs in

106、 the top producing countries.Global bovine and ovine meat outputs are also forecast to expand further in 2024,underpinned by ample supplies of slaughter-ready cattle;however,constrained consumer purchasing power due to subdued economic growth and relatively high bovine meat prices will likely limit

107、demand and impact production growth prospects.By contrast,global pig meat production is predicted to shrink by about 1.2 million tonnes or 0.9 percent from 2023.This reduction will be principally caused by an anticipated decline in China following the governments efforts to contain oversupply and su

108、stain domestic price stability by reducing the breeding sow numbers and adjusting the target of the national swine stock.World trade in meat and meat products is forecast to rebound after two consecutive years of contraction.The rebound will be principally driven by a solid import demand expected in

109、 all regions,especially in Northern America.However,this positive outlook could be affected by trade restrictions stemming from the spread of animal diseases,geopolitical factors and curbed consumer purchasing power.As measured by the FAO Meat Price Index,international meat prices increased moderate

110、ly from January to May this year despite a slowdown in the pace of price increase in recent months.Price increases were registered across bovine,poultry and pig meats,principally underpinned by a solid demand from leading importing countries,notwithstanding increased supplies from the major meat exp

111、orters.By contrast,international ovine meat prices declined,mainly due to ample exportable supplies in Oceania,the worlds largest supplier.MEAT AND MEAT PRODUCTSContact:Upali Galketi Aratchilage Emanuele MaroccoFAO INTERNATIONAL MEAT PRICE INDEX(2014-2016=100)WORLD MEAT MARKET AT A GLANCE20222023 es

112、tim.2024 fcastChange:2024 over 2023million tonnes(carcass weight equivalent)%WORLD BALANCEProduction 364.7 370.0 370.70.2Bovine meat 75.8 76.7 77.20.7Poultry meat 142.7 145.1 146.20.8Pig meat 122.8 124.5 123.3-0.9Ovine meat 16.8 17.1 17.30.8Trade 41.1 40.5 41.21.8Bovine meat 11.7 11.9 12.11.9Poultry

113、 meat 16.1 16.1 16.31.5Pig meat 10.7 9.8 10.12.5Ovine meat 1.1 1.2 1.33.5SUPPLY AND DEMAND INDICATORSPer caput food consumption:World(kg/year)45.5 45.845.5-0.7Trade-share of prod.(%)11.3 10.911.11.6FAO MEAT PRICE INDEX(2014-2016=100)202220232024 Jan-MayChange:Jan-May 2024 over Jan-May 2023%119 11511

114、4.0-0.7105110115120125130DNOSAJJMAMFJ2024202320222014-2016=100Market summaries8FOOD OUTLOOKJUNE 2024MILK AND MILK PRODUCTSContact:Upali Galketi Aratchilage FAO INTERNATIONAL DAIRY PRICE INDEX(2014-2016=100)WORLD DAIRY MARKET AT A GLANCE20222023 estim.2024 fcastChange:2024 over 2023million tonnes(mil

115、k equivalent)%WORLD BALANCETotal milk production 951.6 965.2 978.51.4Total trade 85.6 84.7 85.40.8SUPPLY AND DEMAND INDICATORSPer caput food consumption:World(kg/year)119.4 120.0 120.60.4Trade-share of prod.(%)9.0 8.8 8.7-0.5FAO DAIRY PRICE INDEX(2014-2016=100)202220232024 Jan-MayChange:Jan-May 2024

116、 over Jan-May 2023%150 124 123-8.4100120140160DNOSAJJMAMFJ202420222023Source:FAO.2014-2016=100World milk production is forecast to reach nearly 979 million tonnes in 2024,up 1.4 percent from 2023.Much of the expansion is expected to come from Asia led by India,China and Pakistan and will be driven p

117、rincipally by rising dairy cow numbers and growing contributions of more efficient large-scale dairy farms with higher milk yields.The forecast growth in global milk output assumes a relatively moderate worldwide impact of the emerging La Nia weather phenomenon,steady farm gate milk prices,and relat

118、ively lower feed costs stemming from easing grain prices,all of which should lead to improved profit margins in major milk-producing regions.Macroeconomic challenges,including currency fluctuations and subdued economic growth anticipated in some leading milk-producing regions,will likely constrain c

119、onsumer demand for dairy products and,ultimately,milk production growth.Global trade in dairy products is forecast to reach 85.3 million tonnes in 2024,rising by 0.8 percent year on year.Increases are expected to be notable in Mexico,the Philippines,Saudi Arabia,the United States of America,Algeria

120、and Japan and will be underpinned by demand recoveries partly induced by relatively lower international dairy prices and increased demand from the food services sector.Dairy imports by China are forecast to fall slightly,mainly reflecting rising domestic supplies.Australia,the United States,New Zeal

121、and,Argentina and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland will likely supply much of the anticipated increase in imports of dairy products,reflecting competitive prices and ample exportable availabilities.International dairy prices,as measured by the FAO Dairy Price Index,increased

122、by 6.2 percent from January to May this year,pushing the index value 3.5 percent above its value a year ago.During the five months,butter and cheese prices increased significantly,reflecting steady global import demand,coupled with improved retail and food services sales and somewhat tighter invento

123、ries in leading producing regions,especially the European Union.Meanwhile,whole milk powder prices increased moderately,as purchases by leading importers in the Near East and North Africa regions remained robust despite a slowdown in the pace of imports by China.By contrast,world prices of skim milk

124、 powder fell due to sluggish global import demand.Market summaries9FOOD OUTLOOKJUNE 2024In 2024,output from fisheries and aquaculture is set to increase by 4.2 million tonnes,or 2.2 percent,to 191 million tonnes.Aquaculture production is forecast to grow by 3.3 percent,reaching 100.8 million tonnes,

125、largely driven by a surge in farmed shrimp production and smaller gains in oysters and carp.Despite this growth,the sector continues to face challenges with low market prices and high production costs.Notwithstanding notable improvements in global economic conditions including lower inflation rates

126、and a stronger-than-expected gross domestic product(GDP)growth in some countries consumer spending patterns in the United States of America and the European Union have remained notably restrained.This curtailment has been reflected in sluggish demand for many segments of the aquatic food market,with

127、 consumers favouring lower-priced seafood products.In 2024,the value of global trade in aquatic animal products is expected to decline by 1.0 percent,with major importers such as China,the European Union,the United States of America and Japan all seen registering a contraction in value from last yea

128、r.Meanwhile,trade volumes will likely remain largely flat,with a slight decline of 0.3 percent compared with the 2023 levels.FISH AND FISHERY PRODUCTSContact:William GriffinAudun LemAdrienne EggerFAO FISH PRICE INDEX(2014-2016=100)WORLD FISH MARKET AT A GLANCESource of the raw data for the FAO Fish

129、Price Index(see table below).20222023 estim.2024 fcastChange:2024 over 2023million tonnes(live weight)%WORLD BALANCEProduction 185.4 187.2 191.42.2 Capture fisheries 91.0 89.6 90.61.1 Aquaculture 94.4 97.6 100.83.3Trade value (exports USD billion)192.2 185.2 183.3-1.0Trade volume(live weight)70.0 68

130、.5 68.3-0.3Total utilization 185.4 187.2 191.42.2 Food 164.6 167.3 170.82.1 Feed 17.2 16.2 16.73.3 Other uses 3.6 3.7 3.82.8SUPPLY AND DEMAND INDICATORSPer caput food consumption:Food fish(kg/yr)20.7 20.8 21.0 1.2 From capture fisheries(kg/year)8.8 8.7 8.6-0.4 From aquaculture(kg/year)11.8 12.1 12.4

131、2.3FAO FISH PRICE INDEX(2014-2016=100)202220232024 Jan-MayChange:Jan-Apr 2024 over Jan-Apr 2023%119.0 117.3 118.7-3.62014-2016=100609012015020242023202220212020FAO fsh price indexCapture indexAquaculture indexSources:EUMOFA.2024.EUMOFA database of international prices.Accessed on 5 May 2024.https:/e

132、umofa.eu/international-prices;INFOFISH.2024.INFOFISH Trade News.Series 4/2024.Kuala Lumpur,INFOFISH.Issue 4/2024.https:/infofish.org/v4/media/attachments/2024/04/23/itn-4-2024.pdf;INFOPESCA.2024.Revista Infopesca Internacional.Series 71.Montevideo,INFOPESCA.https:/www.infopesca.org/content/revista-i

133、nfopesca-internacional-nro-71-0;Norwegian Directorate of Fisheries.2024.Directorate of Fisheries statistics bank.Accessed on 5 May 2024.https:/statistikkbanken.fiskeridir.no/PxWeb/pxweb/no/Fiskeridirektoratet/;and Danish Fisheries Agency.2024.Danish fishing auctions.Accessed on 5 May 2024.https:/fis

134、keristatistik.fiskeristyrelsen.dk/SASVisualAnalytics/?reportUri=%2Freports%2Freports%2F39dd5fbf-eb88-46bc-b1ab-793afd7d9fac&sso provided the raw data for the FAO Fish Price Index.MARKET ASSESSMENTSMARKET ASSESSMENTS11FOOD OUTLOOK JUNE 2024Figure 1.IGC Wheat Price IndexFigure 2.CBOT wheat futuresfor

135、SeptemberWHEATPRICESWeaker demand and strong export competition likely to weigh on international wheat pricesInternational wheat prices steadily declined over the 2023/24 season,and by May 2024 stood 9.0 percent below both their May 2023 values and their five-year average value.The main drivers behi

136、nd the general downward trend throughout the season were ample availability,competitively priced supplies from the Russian Federation,and strong competition among exporters especially between the Russian Federation and the European Union(of common wheat).Forecasts for the 2024/25 marketing year poin

137、t to lower global wheat utilization,weaker import demand,and larger harvests expected in many major exporting countries,which are all likely to sustain downward pressure on wheat prices in 2024/25.Similarly reflecting the ample supply outlook,wheat futures have also declined.The September Chicago Bo

138、ard of Trade(CBOT)soft red winter futures averaged USD 223/tonne in April,12.0 percent lower than in April 2023.More detailed analysis of the futures markets can be found in the Market Indicators section of this report.150210270330390450202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013201220112010200

139、920082007January 2000=100190230270310350MAMFJDNOSUSD per tonne2024 values2023 valuesiStockMarket assessments12FOOD OUTLOOKJUNE 2024Table 1.World wheat market at a glanceTable 2.Wheat production:leading producers*20222023 estim.2024fcastChange:2024 over 2023milliontonnes%China(Mainland)137.7136.6137.

140、70.8European Union134.3133.7128.1-4.2India107.7110.6112.01.3Russian Federation104.292.892.0-0.8United States of America44.949.350.62.5Australia40.526.029.513.6Canada34.332.034.68.3Pakistan26.228.228.51.1Ukraine20.722.520.0-11.0Trkiye19.822.020.0-9.1Argentina12.615.916.53.8United Kingdom of Great Bri

141、tain and Northern Ireland15.514.012.0-14.2Kazakhstan16.412.113.07.3Grand total715.0695.5694.5-0.1World806.0787.7786.7-0.1*Countries listed according to their position in global production(average 2021-2023).1 Trade refers to exports based on a common July/June marketing season.2 May not equal the di

142、fference between supply(defined as production plus carryover stocks)and total utilization due to differences in individual country marketing years.3 Major exporters include Argentina,Australia,Canada,the European Union,Kazakhstan,the Russian Federation,Ukraine and the UnitedStates of America.4 Deriv

143、ed from the International Grains Council(IGC)wheat index.PRODUCTIONGlobal wheat production to decrease marginally in 2024 In 2024,global wheat production is forecast to decrease marginally by 0.1 percent(0.9 million tonnes)to 786.7 million tonnes.The production outlook marks a small downgrade compar

144、ed to initial expectations from March,as adverse weather conditions in some main producing countries in the northern hemisphere led to a trimming of yield forecasts.In the southern hemisphere,firmer data indicated moderately smaller sown areas than preliminary estimates.In Europe,forecasts of reduce

145、d year-on-year wheat outputs are largely contributing to the stunted global production prospects in 2024.In the European Union,wheat production is forecast to fall to 128 million tonnes,4.2 percent down year on year.The foreseen decline is driven by a sizeable drop in winter sowings due to excessive

146、 rainfall in late 2023.Notwithstanding localized dryness earlier in the season in the southern and eastern parts of the European Union,generally conducive weather in March and April bolstered yield expectations,and the average wheat yield is forecast to surpass the previous five-year average.In the

147、United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland,excessive wetness curtailed wheat sowings,is impairing yield prospects and pushing the production forecast down to 12 million tonnes,14.0 percent below the output in 2023.Since the closure of data used in this report,yield outlooks have worsened i

148、n parts of the Russian Federation,as drier-than-average conditions were followed by a prolonged late season frost.This adverse weather is expected to drag yields below what is currently forecast in this report and is likely to push wheat production to a level lower than 90 million tonnes in 2024.The

149、 war in Ukraine continues to negatively impact the agriculture sector and as a result,wheat production is expected to fall by 11.0 percent to 20 million tonnes in 2024.In North America,wheat production is expected to increase.In the United States,generally beneficial weather conditions are foreseen

150、to lead to an upturn in yields and a fall in the abandonment rate,meaning a likely increase in the harvested area despite lower sowings.Currently,production is forecast at 50.6 million tonnes,up 2.5 percent from the previous years outturn.In Canada,plantings of the main spring crop are underway.Thin

151、ner profit margins are anticipated to cause a decline in the sown area,but a return to average yields should push production up to an above-average level of 34.6 million tonnes.At this level,the wheat output 2022/232023/24 estim.2024/25 fcastChange:2034/24 over 2023/23million tonnes%WORLD BALANCEPro

152、duction 806.0 787.7 786.7-0.1Trade1 201.7 200.4 198.0-1.2Total utilization 780.0 800.3 794.0-0.8Food 531.7 536.7 544.31.4Feed 150.3 152.4 162.06.3Other uses 89.9 90.9 93.93.3Ending stocks2 322.2 311.8 306.8-1.6SUPPLY AND DEMAND INDICATORSPer caput food consumption:World(kg/yr)67.3 67.7 67.6-0.1LIFDC

153、(kg/yr)41.6 41.7 41.3-1.0World stocks-to-use ratio(%)40.339.338.0Major exporters stocks-to-disappearance ratio3(%)21.220.218.1 FAO WHEAT PRICE INDEX4(2014-2016=100)202220232024 Jan-MayChange:Jan/May 2024 over Jan/May 2023%165 127 109-21%13FOOD OUTLOOK JUNE 2022would be 8.3 percent above the dry-weat

154、her-affected harvest of 2023.In Asia,conducive weather conditions and adequate water supplies for irrigation are bolstering production expectations.In India in 2024,the wheat outturn is anticipated to rise by 1.3 percent year on year to a new record of 112 million tonnes.Pakistan is forecast to gath

155、er an all-time high wheat crop of 28.5 million tonnes.This record is tied to remunerative prices that supported a larger wheat area and improved access to high-quality seeds.Production in China(mainland)is also foreseen to increase to 137.7 million tonnes due to large sowings and favourable yield pr

156、ospects.Amid broadly favourable weather conditions that have benefited crop development and replenished irrigation water supplies,wheat harvests are expected at average to above-average levels in most Near East Asian countries in 2024.Similarly,wheat production in Central Asia is predicted to expand

157、 year on year in 2024,buoyed by conducive weather conditions.In North Africa by contrast,substantial rainfall deficits and high temperatures have had a pronounced negative impact on wheat crop conditions in the western countries.In Morocco,production is forecast to fall by nearly 40.0 percent from l

158、ast year to a below-average level of 2.5 million tonnes.The output in Algeria is forecast close to the previous years drought-stricken harvest,while a small production upturn in eastern Tunisia is anticipated,following the multiyear low harvest in 2023.Egypts wheat crop is less affected by rainfall

159、conditions,as the crop is produced almost entirely under irrigation,and the 2024 harvest is expected to remain close to last years high level.In the southern hemisphere,early and tentative prospects point to moderate production upturns in Australia,Argentina and Brazil.In Australia,prevailing drynes

160、s in western provinces may see a pullback in sowings compared to initial intentions,but overall,the national wheat area is anticipated to rise moderately,with planting underway.El Nio-linked drier weather conditions adversely impacted the 2023 wheat cropping season,but more conducive rainfall condit

161、ions are anticipated from June.These conditions are foreseen to foster a recovery in yields.The upturn in crop productivity could push up the Australian wheat output to 29.5 million tonnes,representing a near 14 percent increase from last years reduced level.In Argentina in 2024,wheat production is

162、anticipated to increase because of an expansion in the area planted,decreasing input costs and optimal soil moisture levels.However,there are concerns over the impact of impending dry conditions on crop yields.In 2024,Brazils wheat output is also expected to increase to 9 million tonnes,resting on a

163、n expected recovery in yields following last years low.TRADEWheat trade to contract for a second season in 2024/25In 2024/25(July/June),world trade in wheat is expected to contract by 1.2 percent(2.4 million tonnes)from the 2023/24 level to 198 million tonnes,reaching its lowest level since 2021/22.

164、In general,the predicted decline in trade reflects weaker import demand from China(mainland)and the European Union,along with smaller exports from Trkiye and the Black Sea exporters.The largest anticipated decline in wheat imports,at the regional level,is anticipated in Europe.The regions wheat impo

165、rts are forecast to fall by 26.0 percent in 2024/25 from their 2023/24 level.The prediction solely rests on an anticipated 4.1-million-tonne drop in imports by the European Union(largely of common wheat).Following two consecutive seasons of large purchases,wheat imports by the European Union are lik

166、ely to return closer to average levels in 2024/25 due to lower anticipated domestic feed demand as well as a decline in exportable supplies in Ukraine,which is typically its main source of imports.In Asia,the highest importing region in the world constituting more than half of global wheat imports,a

167、ggregate wheat imports are forecast to remain near their 2023/24 level of approximately 104 million tonnes.China(mainland)is expected to reduce its purchases by 1.7 million tonnes on account of higher production and reduced demand for feed use of wheat,as its Figure 3.Wheat production in major wheat

168、 producers032649612816020242023202220212020China(mainland)Indiamillion tonnes estim.fcastRussian Fed.United States European UnionWheatMarket assessments14FOOD OUTLOOKJUNE 2024price advantage over other feed grains has diminished.Lower imports in 2024/25 are also forecast for several other countries

169、in the region,including Saudi Arabia,Uzbekistan,and Viet Nam.Balancing those anticipated declines,larger purchases are anticipated for India,the Islamic Republic of Iran,and Trkiye in 2024/25.For India,wheat imports are foreseen at 1.5 million tonnes,significantly higher year on year.Sustained local

170、 demand and low inventories have pushed up domestic prices and will likely prompt increased purchases from international markets with comparatively low prices.In Trkiye,lower domestic production following a year of high exports is behind the anticipated increase in imports,which are partially destin

171、ed for processing and re-exporting.Similarly in Latin America and the Caribbean,wheat imports in 2024/25 are forecast to remain near their 2023/24 level of 22 million tonnes.Wheat imports by Brazil and Mexico,the regions largest and second largest wheat importers respectively,are both forecast to be

172、 on par with last years levels.By contrast,import demand from Africa is expected to grow with purchases forecast to rise by 2.2 percent to a record 55.6 million tonnes.Making up the bulk of that increase,imports by Morocco could increase by 19.0 percent to compensate for an expected reduced domestic

173、 production.In 2024/25 Egypt,the regions leading wheat importer,may also slightly increase its wheat imports given its tight stock levels following elevated exports in 2023/24.Turning to export prospects for 2024/25,the anticipated decline in exports mostly reflects smaller sales from the Black Sea

174、region and Trkiye.The largest decline in exports is expected from Ukraine,where exports could fall by almost 3 million tonnes to below 14 million tonnes,which would be their lowest volume in ten years,as trade prospects align to the declining production levels.Following a record export season in 202

175、3/24,in 2024/25 the Russian Federation is also predicted to export less(down 2 million tonnes)due to a slightly smaller harvest and strong competition from other major exporters.However,at 49.5 million tonnes,the Russian Federations exports would still be at their second highest level,and the countr

176、y would maintain its position as the top wheat exporter in the world.Wheat exports from Trkiye are also forecast to come down from their record level in 2023/24 as durum sales may slide with competition from Canada.Yet exports are still forecast to remain elevated at 6 million tonnes,their second hi

177、ghest level,with sales of wheat flour expected to remain strong.Exports by all other major wheat exporters,including Argentina,Australia,Canada,the European Union,and United States,are all predicted to increase above their respective 2023/24 levels.The biggest increases in exports are forecast in Au

178、stralia,Canada,and the United States,where there are prospects for higher supplies due to better harvests than last season.In Argentina,a larger output is also expected to support an increase in wheat exports.Wheat exports(largely consisting of common wheat)by the European Union are seen remaining n

179、ear their five-year-average levels,pointing to a marginal increase in 2024/25,with tighter domestic supplies expected to limit sales despite potentially less competition from Black Sea exporters.Competition for market share among exporters is set to remain strong in 2024/25,with export surpluses in

180、major exporting countries of the Black Sea region expected to fall,thus opening the door for other major exporters to increase their sales.UTILIZATIONWheat utilization to decline in 2024/25Global wheat utilization in 2024/25 is forecast to contract by 0.8 percent(6.3 million tonnes)from the 2023/24

181、record level,reaching 794 million tonnes.The decline stems from an anticipated fall in global feed use(by 3.8 percent,or 6.1 million tonnes)and other use(by 5.0 percent,or 4.7 million tonnes)of wheat,while food consumption is seen continuing to grow(by 0.8 percent,or 4.5 million tonnes).Most of the

182、projected decrease of feed use is expected in China(mainland),where the price advantage relative to maize and rice of using wheat for feed has diminished.In the European Union and the Russian Federation,the worlds largest and third largest markets for feed wheat,feed use is predicted to remain near

183、last seasons levels.The bulk of the decline in other uses of wheat which Figure 4.Wheat exports from the Black Sea0204060802024/252023/242022/23average2019/20-2021/22010203040million tonnespercentRussian Federation estim.fcastGlobal share of wheat exports from the common independent states(right axi

184、s)UkraineKazakhstan15FOOD OUTLOOK JUNE 2024includes the industrial sector,seed and postharvest losses is in India due to reduced spoilage of government-held stocks and high domestic prices that incentivize food consumption rather than other uses.By contrast,world food consumption is forecast to cont

185、inue to increase.The average global per capita wheat consumption is expected to remain broadly steady at around 67.6 kg/annum.In terms of total regional wheat for human consumption,however,Africa and Asia are forecast to continue to lead in annual growth,albeit at slower rates than the previous seas

186、on in line with slower population growth.STOCKS Wheat inventories to tighten in 2024/25World wheat stocks are forecast to fall for a second consecutive season,declining to 307 million tonnes,down 1.6 percent(5 million tonnes)below their opening levels.The anticipated year-on-year decline in global w

187、heat inventories largely reflects a drawdown of stocks in the European Union.Lower production in the European Union,coupled with expectations of smaller imports,is predicted to drive wheat stocks down in the bloc by 42.0 percent to their lowest level since 2020/21(assuming export levels remain near

188、last seasons).Wheat inventories are also expected to tighten sharply(by 65.0 percent)in Kazakhstan following two consecutive seasons of high export levels.Smaller drawdowns anticipated in several other countries,including Algeria,the Russian Federation,Trkiye,Ukraine,and Uzbekistan,are also expected

189、 to contribute to the forecast global decline.By contrast,and helping to limit the fall in global inventories,a rise in wheat stocks is foreseen in China Figure 6.Wheat imports:top 10 wheat importers03691215 Egypt2024/25 fcast2021/22-2023/24 averagemillion tonnesIndonesiaTrkiyeChina(mainland)Morocco

190、the PhilippinesAlgeriaBangladeshNigeriaEuropeanUnionFigure 5.Wheat exports:top 10 wheat exporters01020304050EuropeanUnion2024/25fcast2021/22-2023/24 averagemillion tonnesRussianFed.AustraliaArgentinaCanadaBrazilTrkiyeUnitedStatesUkraineKazakhstanWheatFigure 7.Global wheat utilization0200400600800202

191、4/252023/242022/232021/222020/21million tonnesFood useFeed useOther usesestim.fcastFigure 8.Wheat stocks of major exporters018365472902024/252022/232019/202015/162011/122007/080612182430million tonnespercentRussianFed.Stocks-to-disappearance ratio of major exportersfcastEuropean UnionAustraliaUnited

192、 StatesUkraineCanadaArgentinaKazakhstanMarket assessments16FOOD OUTLOOKJUNE 2022(mainland),India,and the United States.In China(mainland),reduced feed use of wheat,on top of higher production,is predicted to increase stocks.The forecast increase in stocks in the United States is attributed to a rise

193、 in production.An anticipated increase in stocks in India would represent a slight recovery from a sharp drawdown in 2023/24 on account of high consumption.In 2024/25,based on current forecasts,the world wheat stocks-to-use ratio would stand at 38.0 percent,down from the 2023/24 level of 39.3 percen

194、t and below the recent elevated five-year-average level of 38.7,but still this ratio represents a very comfortable supply level.The ratio of the major wheat exporters closing stocks to disappearance(defined as domestic utilization plus exports)is considered to be a better measure of global availabil

195、ities and is expected to decrease for a second consecutive season,from 20.2 percent in 2023/24 to 18.1 percent in 2024/25.This decrease reflects a forecast decline in the stocks of most major exporters,including most notably the European Union,as well as in Kazakhstan,the Russian Federation,and Ukra

196、ine.Figure 10.Wheat stocks and ratios0701402102803502024/252023/242022/232021/222020/2101020304050million tonnespercentMajor exportersRest of the worldChina(mainland)World Stocks-to-use ratioStocks-to-disappearance ratio of Major Exportersestim.fcastFigure 9.Wheat stocks of top importers034681021361

197、702024/252021/222019/202017/182015/162013/142011/122009/102007/08million tonnesIndonesiafcastEgyptTrkiyeChina(mainland)Iran(Islamic Rep.of)BangladeshBrazilAlgeria17FOOD OUTLOOK JUNE 2022Figure 2.CBOT maize December futuresFigure 1.Maize export price(US No.2 yellow,Gulf)COARSE GRAINS*1402052703354002

198、023/242021/222022/23USD per tonneJMAMFJDNOSAJ160185210235260MAMFJDUSD per tonne2023 values2024 valuesPRICESInternational coarse grain prices seen remaining below average levels In 2023,the record global coarse grain production was behind the overall decline in international coarse grain prices over

199、the 2023/24 season.In May 2024,prices averaged 16.0 percent below both their May 2023 value and their five-year average levels.With maize production increasing the most among the major coarse grains,leading to a build-up of global maize stocks,world maize prices exhibited the sharpest descent in 202

200、3/24,falling by 19.0 percent over the season.Ample supplies and robust maize exports,from Brazil in particular,underscored the decline in global maize prices.Expectations for continued ample global maize supplies going into the 2024/25 season,based on good production prospects for maize harvests in

201、major exporters in both the southern Shutterstock*Coarse grains include maize,barley,sorghum,millet,rye,oats and NES(not elsewhere specified).Market assessments18FOOD OUTLOOKJUNE 2024Figure 3.Major maize producers08016024032040020242023202220212020million tonnes estim.fcastUnitedStatesChina(mainland

202、)BrazilEuropeanUnionand the northern hemispheres,have also contributed to the downward pressure on maize markets.In line with maize market trends,international prices of barley and sorghum also declined in 2023/24.By May 2024,world barley and sorghum prices reached 5.0 percent and falling 17.0 perce

203、nt below their respective one-year-earlier values.The current ample export availabilities and expectations for another season of abundant supplies ahead is reflected in the Chicago Board of Trade(CBOT)maize futures for delivery in December 2024,which is the benchmark delivery month for the new Unite

204、d States crop.The CBOT averaged USD 185 per tonne in April,down 15.0 percent from the previous years level.A more detailed analysis of the futures markets can be found in the Market Indicators section of this Food Outlook report.PRODUCTIONGlobal coarse grain production is pegged to fall marginally b

205、elow the 2023 recordGlobal coarse grain production is pegged at 1525 million tonnes in 2024,marginally down from the record high of 2023.The primary driver behind this decline is the reduced production prospects for maize that largely reflect acreage contractions in the United States and Brazil and

206、yield downturns in Southern African countries.A large proportion of the global production decline is concentrated in Northern America,specifically in the United States,where a cutback in maize plantings,amid softer prices and better profit margins for alternative crops including soybean,is underlyin

207、g expectations of a 3.0 percent decrease in production in 2024 from the record high of 2023.An anticipated increase in yields is forecast to limit the year-on-year decrease,and consequently the maize outturn is pegged at an above average level of 377.5 million tonnes.In Canada,maize production is fo

208、recast at 14.9 million tonnes,virtually on par with last years above-average outturn,owing to large plantings that are expected to compensate for lower yields.In Europe,maize production in the European Union is seen rebounding to 69.3 million tonnes,which would put this years outturn above the five-

209、year average.Larger plantings underlie this outlook,and notable acreage increases are expected in France and Poland in 2024.Further contributing to the favourable production outlook,the blocs average maize yield is also anticipated to increase.In Ukraine,primarily driven by the effects of the war,ma

210、ize production is forecast to decrease to 27.5 million tonnes in 2024,10.0 percent lower year on year and a well below-average level.Comparatively lower profit margins for maize are also incentivizing Ukrainian farmers to switch to alternative crops,mainly oilseeds.Maize production in the Russian Fe

211、deration is forecast to remain unchanged year on year at 15 million tonnes.In South America,maize production in Brazil is forecast to decline by 15.0 percent to 111.6 million tonnes,albeit remaining above the five-year average.The year-on-year decrease reflects,almost equally,a cutback in plantings,

212、driven by lower prices,and reduced yields,particularly on account of less-than-favourable weather conditions in the main producing southern and central-western areas.Contrastingly,maize production in Argentina is anticipated to recover to a near-average level of 56 million tonnes in 2024,potentially

213、 up one-third compared to the 2023 outturn.This positive outlook reflects an upswing in plantings,as well as a likely increase in yields following to the lows of 2023;however,yield prospects have been cut back recently due to the widespread outbreak of maize stunt disease toward the end of the seaso

214、n.In Africa,widespread drought conditions in Southern Africa have sharply cut maize production prospects in 2024.In South Africa,the continents principal maize producer,El Nio-linked drought conditions have dragged down yield prospects,and as a result the maize harvest is forecast to decrease to a b

215、elow-average level of 14 million tonnes.Disaggregated by crop type,white maize has been more affected(it is produced in far fewer countries than the globally dominant yellow maize crop),and production of this crop is forecast to fall by 25.0 percent year on year,driving the overall decline in 2024.S

216、ubstantial rainfall deficits and elevated temperatures have also affected neighbouring countries,and consequently steep decreases in maize production are forecast in Zambia and Zimbabwe.19FOOD OUTLOOK JUNE 2024Coarse grainsTable 1.World coarse grain market at a glanceTable 2.Coarse grain production:

217、leading producers*Countries listed according to their position in global production(average 2021-2023).20222023 estim.2024fcastChange:2024 over 2023milliontonnes%United States of America356.7403.2392.1-2.8China(Mainland)287.0298.4301.61.1European Union134.8138.5152.910.4Brazil117.8138.1118.2-14.4Arg

218、entina67.048.964.131.1India56.853.856.24.4Russian Federation47.843.243.1-0.3Ukraine34.838.034.2-10.2Mexico32.431.429.8-5.0Canada30.627.228.65.2Ethiopia22.822.822.90.3Indonesia23.623.023.20.9Nigeria21.819.120.99.7Australia19.115.215.62.8South Africa16.617.014.5-14.7Trkiye18.019.316.4-14.9Pakistan11.5

219、10.811.01.8Other countries181.9181.5179.2-1.3World1,480.81,529.61,524.6-0.31 Trade refers to exports based on a common July/June marketing season.2 May not equal the difference between supply(defined as production plus carryover stocks)and total utilization due to differences in individual country m

220、arketing years.3 Low-Income Food-Deficit countries.4 Major exporters include Argentina,Australia,Brazil,Canada,the European Union,the Russian Federation,Ukraine and the UnitedStates of America.In Asia,maize production in China(mainland),the worlds leading producer,is forecast to rise to 288 million

221、tonnes,marginally up year on year.The increase is due to an acreage expansion amid remunerative crop prices.Elsewhere in Asia,maize harvests are forecast at comparable levels to the preceding year.Global barley production is forecast at 148.9 million tonnes in 2024,up 3.6 percent from the previous y

222、ears output.The anticipated upturn is underpinned by good production prospects in the European Union,supported by an acreage increase concentrated in Eastern Europe and higher yields,which are expected to bounce back to near-average levels after the reduced levels in 2023.Barley harvests are also se

223、en rising in Australia and Canada and rest on likely yield recoveries from the lows of 2023.These expected production upturns are anticipated to more than offset sizeable production declines in Morocco,Trkiye and Ukraine.World production of sorghum is pegged at 60.7 million tonnes in 2024,4.1 percen

224、t higher than the outturn in 2023.The increase reflects an expectation of larger outputs in Argentina and the United States,underpinned by good yield prospects.TRADEWorld trade in coarse grains likely to contract in 2024/25 Pegged at 230 million tonnes,FAOs first forecast for world trade in coarse g

225、rains in 2024/25(July/June)points to a 2.4 percent decrease from the 2023/24 level.The decrease stems from anticipated declines in trade of maize and barley,while sorghum trade is seen rising.Leading the decline,global maize trade in 2024/25(July/June)is forecast to drop by 2.7 percent from 2023/24,

226、reaching 184 million tonnes.This would mark the first contraction in global maize trade since 2021/22.The main driver behind the decline is weaker import demand from Asia(down 7.0 percent),the worlds top importing region,bringing the regional import forecast to 94 million tonnes.In particular a redu

227、ction of purchases is anticipated by China(mainland).Larger domestic production and rising stocks are forecast to reduce Chinas import demand from last seasons high level of 28.5 million tonnes to 20 million tonnes in 2024/25,albeit still an elevated level as a result of high domestic maize prices.T

228、his decline is slightly offset by small increases in imports elsewhere in the region,including Trkiye,Saudi Arabia,India,and Bangladesh.In Latin America and the Caribbean,maize imports by Mexico could remain near last seasons level of 2022/232023/24 estim.2024/25 fcastChange:2024/25 over 2023/24mill

229、ion tonnes%WORLD BALANCEProduction1 480.81 529.61 524.6-0.3Trade1 224.7 235.6 229.9-2.4Total utilization1 487.01 510.71 525.61.0Food 225.4 229.2 232.01.2Feed 869.2 883.3 895.01.3Other uses 392.4 398.1 398.70.1Ending stocks2 353.9 372.5 385.33.4SUPPLY AND DEMAND INDICATORSPer caput food consumption:W

230、orld(kg/yr)28.3 28.5 28.60.4LIFDC3(kg/yr)72.1 72.6 72.0-0.8World stocks-to-use ratio(%)23.424.423.9Major exporters stocks-to-disappearance ratio4(%)12.713.114.2 FAO COARSE GRAIN PRICE INDEX(2014-2016=100)202220232024 Jan-MayChange:Jan/May 2024 over Jan/May 2023%169 134 108-0.2Market assessments20FOO

231、D OUTLOOKJUNE 2024Figure 5.Coarse grain exports:major exportersFigure 4.Global trade of coarse grains by type010203040506070802023/24(estimate)2024/25(forecast)million tonnes UnitedStatesEuropean UnionCanadaBrazilUkraineArgentinaAustraliaRussianFederation20 million tonnes.At this level,Mexico could

232、reclaim its position as one of the worlds largest importers,tied with China(mainland),for the first time since 2017/18.For the region,aggregate maize imports are forecast to remain in line with 2023/24 levels,with smaller purchases by Colombia,Dominican Republic,and Uruguay balanced by bigger import

233、s by Brazil and Chile.In Europe,maize imports are also seen remaining generally stable.The European Union is forecast to maintain its spot as one of the worlds top three importers with purchases near 17 million tonnes,remaining on par with last seasons level as higher domestic production is seen lim

234、iting import demand growth.In Africa,maize imports are likely to increase by 12.0 percent in 2024/25,reaching 23 million tonnes and approaching the record registered in 2020/21.The largest year-on-year increases in maize imports are expected in Malawi,Zambia,and Zimbabwe,where maize is the primary s

235、taple food.Smaller increases are also foreseen in Egypt,Morocco,and Mozambique.On the export side,reductions in maize exports from Brazil,Ukraine,and Paraguay are predicted to outweigh larger anticipated sales by Argentina and the United States.The biggest year-on-year fall in exports is forecast fo

236、r Brazil as a result of lower domestic production.With Brazils sales expected to fall by 24.0 percent to 40 million tonnes in 2024/25,Brazil would relinquish its position as the worlds leading exporter,which it has held for the past two seasons.In 2024/25,maize exports from Ukraine are forecast to d

237、ecrease by 10 percent to 22 million tonnes,its lowest volume since 2017/18.This decrease reflects tighter supplies and logistical disruptions due to the war.Smaller maize shipments from Paraguay(after surging in 2023/24)and South Africa will also contribute to the decline in trade in 2024/25,althoug

238、h these two countries are not major maize exporters but important regional suppliers.By contrast,a sharp recovery in exports is forecast for Argentina(up 31.0 percent,to 40 million tonnes)following two seasons of limited sales.An increase in sales is also predicted for the United States(up 11.0 perc

239、ent,to 55.5 million tonnes),which is likely to reclaim its position as the leading maize exporter in the world.World trade in barley(excluding malt)is also anticipated to contract in 2024/25,down 2.4 percent from the 2023/24 level to 32 million tonnes.The main driver behind the decline is weaker imp

240、ort demand from China(mainland),where purchases could fall by 14 percent on account of smaller exportable surpluses in Australia,its main supplier,and cheaper international maize supplies to meet feed demands.Regarding exports,in addition to an anticipated fall in Australias sales,Ukraine and Kazakh

241、stan are also seen reducing their shipments from their levels last season.By contrast,global trade in sorghum is forecast to increase for a second consecutive season in 2024/25,reaching 10 million tonnes,up 6.4 percent from 2023/24.The predicted increase mainly reflects slightly bigger purchases fro

242、m China(mainland)and the European Union and larger sales by Argentina and the United States due to bigger harvests.1001301601902202502024/252023/242022/232021/222020/21million tonnesMaizeBarleySorghumestim.fcastOther coarse grains21FOOD OUTLOOK JUNE 2024Coarse grainsFigure 6.Maize exports:top 10 mai

243、ze exporters01224364860United States2024/252021/22-2023/24 averagemillion tonnesBrazilArgentinaTrkiyeRussianFederationParaguayUkraineSouthAfricaEuropeanUnionCanadaFigure 7.Maize imports:top 10 maize importers0510152025China(mainland)2024/252021/22-2023/24 averagemillion tonnesMexicoJapanEgyptViet Na

244、mColombiaAlgeriaRep.of KoreaIran(IslamicRep.of)EuropeanUnionFigure 8.Sorghum exports:top 5 sorghum exporters024682024/252021/22-2023/24 averagemillion tonnesUnitedStatesArgentinaAustraliaEthiopiaUkraineFigure 9.Sorghum imports:top 5 sorghum importers02468102024/252021/22-2023/24 averagemillion tonne

245、sChina(mainland)MexicoJapanSudanKenyaFigure 10.Barley exports:top 10 barley exporters024682024/252021/22-2023/24 averagemillion tonnesRussianFederationAustraliaKazakhstanUruguayUnitedKingdomCanadaEuropeanUnionArgentinaUkraineTrkiyeFigure 11.Barley imports:top 10 barley importers024681012China(mainla

246、nd)2024/252021/22-2023/24 averagemillion tonnesSaudiArabiaMoroccoLibyaJordanTrkiyeTunisiaJapanIran(IslamicRep.of)EuropeanUnionMarket assessments22FOOD OUTLOOKJUNE 2024UTILIZATIONTotal utilization of coarse grains to expand in 2024/25World utilization of coarse grains in 2024/25 is forecast to reach

247、1526 million tonnes,1.0percent higher than in 2023/24 and marking a new record.Among the major coarse grains,maize utilization is projected to rise by 1.1 percent to 1224 million tonnes,and sorghum utilization is set to reach nearly 62 million tonnes,4.1 percent above the 2023/24 level.By contrast,t

248、otal utilization of barley is projected to remain near its 2023/24 level of 148 million tonnes.Making up the majority of the expected increase in utilization,feed use of coarse grains in 2024/25 is foreseen to increase by 1.3 percent to 895 million tonnes.Feed use of maize alone is anticipated to su

249、rpass its 2023/24 level by 1.5 percent and to reach 729 million tonnes.Feed use of sorghum follows and is predicted to increase by 7.3 percent to 24 million tonnes.China(mainland)is forecast to lead the increase in both feed use of maize and sorghum,with higher maize production and,consequentially,l

250、ower maize prices forecast to encourage using maize instead of wheat to produce feed,and larger imports of sorghum are predicted to go towards feed use.Feed use of maize is also forecast to increase in Brazil(up 3.7 percent)and the Russian Federation(up 31.8 percent),both supported by large domestic

251、 supplies,along with strong demand from the livestock sector in Brazil.Smaller increases in maize feed use are also anticipated in India(5.0 percent)and the United States(0.9 percent),which is also predicted to contribute to the rise in sorghum feed use(up 40.0 percent)owing to larger domestic suppl

252、ies.Forecast at 232 million tonnes,world food consumption of coarse grains in 2024/25 is set to exceed the 2023/24 level by 1.2 percent,which would maintain its share of total utilization at 15.0percent.Regionally,the bulk of the expected increase in food consumption of coarse grains is in Africa(la

253、rgely of maize),the region with the largest food consumption of coarse grains,followed by Asia(maize,barley,and sorghum).Within coarse grains,maize consumption is expected to increase by 1.1 percent in 2024/25 to 150 million tonnes.Food consumption of barley is forecast to increase in 2024/25 by 3.6

254、 percent,and food use of sorghum is projected to rise by 1.6 percent to 28.6 million tonnes.At 399 million tonnes,industrial use of coarse grains in 2024/25 is forecast only fractionally(0.1 percent)above the 2023/24 level.Increases in industrial use of maize(mostly in Brazil)and sorghum(almost excl

255、usively in the United States)are offset by a forecast decline in industrial use of barley(largely in Australia).STOCKSWorld inventories of coarse grains predicted to rise in 2024/25FAOs first forecast for world stocks of coarse grains at the close of the seasons in 2025 stands at 385 million tonnes,

256、pointing to a likely 3.4 percent increase above their opening levels and representing the highest level since 2017/18.Consequently,the world stocks-to-use ratio of coarse grains is set to rise slightly from 24.4 percent in 2023/24 to 24.8 percent in 2024/25,reaching its highest level since 2018/19.M

257、oreover,the ratio of major exporters closing stocks to their total disappearance defined as domestic utilization plus exports and considered a better indicator of global availabilities from a trade perspective is set to increase from 13.0 percent in 2023/24 to 14.4 percent in 2024/25,which would be

258、the highest level since 2017/18.Accounting for the bulk of the anticipated increase in coarse grain stocks,global maize stocks are forecast to rise by 3.5 percent above their opening levels,reaching 325 million tonnes.The largest buildup is predicted in the European Union(up 37.0 percent above openi

259、ng levels)and is supported by expectations of higher production and a third consecutive season of large imports.In China(mainland),high opening stocks,larger domestic production and an elevated level of imports for a fifth consecutive season are predicted to boost maize inventories by 2.1 percent ab

260、ove their opening levels.Maize inventories are also seen increasing in the United States(up 4.0 percent above their opening levels and reaching their highest level since 2018/19),and in Brazil(up 12.5 percent)Figure 12.Top 10 coarse grain importers010203040502023/24(estimate)2024/25(forecast)million

261、 tonnes Iran(IslamicRepublic of)Republic ofKoreaEgyptEuropean UnionViet NamJapanColombiaSaudi ArabiaMexicoChina(mainland)23FOOD OUTLOOK JUNE 2024Coarse grainsFigure 13.Maize exports from the Black Sea07142128352024/52023/242022/23average 2019/20-2021/220714212835million tonnespercentRussian Federati

262、on estim.fcastGlobal share of maize exports from the common independent states(right axis)UkraineKazakhstanFigure 14.Global coarse grain utilization0320640960128016002024/252023/242022/232021/222020/21million tonnesFeed useFood useOther usesestim.fcastFigure 15.Global barley and maize consumptionBar

263、ley feed useMaize feed use01462924385847302024/252023/242022/232021/222020/21million tonnesMaize other useBarley other useestim.fcastFigure 16.Maize stocks for major exporters018365472902024/252021/222019/202017/182015/162013/142011/122009/102007/080612182430million tonnespercentArgentinaStocks-to-d

264、isappearance ratio of major exportersfcastUnited StatesBrazilUkraineFigure 18.Coarse grain stocks and ratios0801602403204002024/252023/242022/232021/222020/21101418222630million tonnespercentMajor exportersRest of the worldChina(mainland)World Stocks-to-use ratioStocks-to-disappearance ratio of majo

265、r exportersestim.fcastFigure 17.Maize stocks for top importers0501001502002502024/252022/232019/202017/182015/162013/142011/122009/102007/08million tonnesfcastMexicoJapanChina(mainland)Republic ofKoreaViet NamEuropean UnionEgyptIran(Islamic Republic of)Market assessments24FOOD OUTLOOKJUNE 2024thanks

266、 to a third consecutive bumper harvest.Among other major coarse grains,both global barley and sorghum inventories are forecast to increase by 3.5 percent above their opening levels to 30.4 million tonnes and 7.4 million tonnes,respectively.Most of the predicted increase in global barley inventories

267、is in the European Union,while higher sorghum inventories are mostly seen in Argentina,Brazil,and the United States.2016/172017/182018/192019/202020/212021/222022/232023/24 estim.2024/25(fcast)Maize production384 778371 096363 787344 651357 818381 469346 739389 694377 461Ethanol use132 695137 978142

268、 373136 607127 716135 133131 476138 435138 435Yearly change(%)0.54.03.2-4.0-6.55.8-2.75.30.0As of production(%)34.537.239.139.635.735.437.935.536.7Table 3.Maize use for ethanol(excluding non-fuel)in the UnitedStates Source:WASDE-USDA 12 May 2023 and FAO estimates.25FOOD OUTLOOK JUNE 2024Figure 1.FAO

269、 All Rice Price Index RICEFigure 2.FAO Rice Price Indices7090110130150170MayJanSepMayJanSepMayJanSepMayJan2014-2016=100Indica IndexAromatic IndexGlutinous Index202320212022Japonica Index2024INTERNATIONAL PRICES Despite some declines in recent months,international prices remain elevatedThe strength t

270、hat dominated international rice markets for much of 2022 and 2023 has abated somewhat in recent months.According to the FAO All Rice Price Index,international prices have declined by 2.7 percent since the close of 2023,while remaining 7.5 percent above their year-earlier level.Indica quotations hav

271、e driven price movements in recent months,easing under the influence of new crop arrivals,low demand from African buyers,and the weakness of the Thai baht and Vietnamese dong against the United States dollar.Yet,Indica quotations remain 15.0 percent more expansive than in May 2023.Their strength ref

272、lects the underpinning provided by large purchases by Southeast Asian buyers,most notably Indonesia,as well as the lingering effects of Indias rice export restrictions in the international market.This is notwithstanding the sizeable exceptions to the export bans on Indica white rice and brokens appr

273、oved by the 90102114126138150DecNovOctSepAugJulJunMayAprMarFebJan20242023202120202014-2016=1002022FAOMarket assessments26FOOD OUTLOOKJUNE 2024Figure 3.Global paddy production and area5005606206807408002024-252023-242021-232019-202017-182015-16135142149156163170million tonnesmillion haProduction(left

274、 axis)Area(right axis)fcastGovernment of India since the bans were put in place.Sentiment has been less resilient in other market segments,where lacklustre demand and,in the case of Japonica prices,easing drought disruptions have exerted downward pressure on prices.This has kept glutinous quotations

275、 well below their 2019 peaks,while lowering aromatic and Japonica quotations 11.5 and 29.6 percent below their respective May 2023 levels.PRODUCTION Rice production to hit a record high in 2024/25Although much will still depend on how the northern hemispheres summer rains unfold,world rice productio

276、n is forecast to expand by 0.9 percent in 2024/25 to reach a fresh peak of 534.9 million tonnes(milled basis).A combination of area expansions and yield improvements are expected to sustain this growth,as attractive paddy prices at the onset of the season could keep plantings at the record extension

277、 attained in 2023/24,if not advance them further,while improved growing conditions following the dissipation of the El Nio phenomenon may revive yield growth.Asia is expected to account for much of the production expansion envisaged for 2024/25,with an aggregate harvest of 478.9 million tonnes,up 0.

278、6 percent from 2023/24.Within the region,Bangladesh,India,and the Philippines are all seen gathering record crops on the back of improved growing conditions and strong government support.Nevertheless,area expansions in response to attractive prices are also anticipated to bolster production in Cambo

279、dia,Nepal,and Pakistan.In Pakistan,shifts away from cotton cultivation are forecast to facilitate this growth,as are efforts to revive spring paddy cultivation in Nepal.In the case of China(mainland),a 0.6 percent annual expansion to 142.3 million tonnes is expected to be sustained by yield improvem

280、ents,while firm paddy prices relative to competing crops,such as maize,stabilize area under paddy following three successive seasons of cutbacks.Easing drought constraints could also enable output to recover in Iraq,the Islamic Republic of Iran and Trkiye.The outlook is less positive elsewhere in th

281、e region.In Thailand,prospects of a full upturn are tempered by possible planting delays stemming from early season dryness,as well as uncertainties surrounding announced reforms to government support programmes.In the Republic of Korea,production is forecast to contract,as producer participation in

282、 the states diversion scheme could increase following hikes in incentives for farmers who substitute table rice with floury rice and bean cultivation.In Myanmar,an anticipated production fall comes amid forecasts of an increased likelihood of below normal rains this season,which could aggravate chal

283、lenges posed by an escalation of conflict,as well as fuel and energy shortages.Smaller crops are also forecast to be harvested in Malaysia,Timor-Leste,Viet Nam and especially in Indonesia,where the season is more advanced and where main-crop development was beset by unseasonable dryness associated w

284、ith El Nio conditions.This is even if efforts are ongoing in Indonesia to mitigate falls by bolstering offseason production via hikes in fertilizer subsidies and through auxiliary irrigation.Africa appears to be headed towards its third successive production expansion,with 28.4 million tonnes foreca

285、st to be gathered across the continent in 2024/25,up 4.0 percent year-on-year and a record high.Despite some flooding problems,the United Republic of Tanzania could see attractive local prices and abundant rainfall lift output to 2.9 million tonnes.In Western Africa,Benin,Burkina Faso,Guinea,Mali,Se

286、negal,Sierra Leone,and Togo could also harvest more,a reflection of the high prices prevailing in many of these countries,expectations of broadly positive rainfall performance,and sustained government support to the sector.The latter includes the continuance of input assistance programmes that were

287、announced by many of them,and in the case of Senegal,an intensification of existing measures,such as cuts in subsidized fertilizer prices,alongside steps to ease sector liquidity constraints.In Burkina Faso and Sierra Leone,the season also looks set to unfold under the framework of newly launched pr

288、ogrammes:the Offensive Agropastorale et Halieutique 2023-2025 in Burkina Faso that seeks to achieve full self-sufficiency in rice by boosting paddy output to 1million tonnes;and the Feed Salone Rice27FOOD OUTLOOK JUNE 2024Table 1.World rice market at a glanceTable 2.Rice Production:leading producers

289、*2022/232023/24 2024/25 fcastChange:2024/25 over 2023/24milliontonnes,milled equivalent China(mainland)142.8141.5142.30.6%India135.8135.3136.71.0%Bangladesh38.539.039.51.2%Indonesia35.134.633.7-2.4%Viet Nam27.728.227.8-1.4%Thailand22.321.621.81.2%Myanmar16.817.116.7-2.0%Philippines13.113.013.32.8%Pa

290、kistan7.39.910.12.7%Brazil7.36.87.02.2%Japan7.37.27.20.5%Cambodia7.07.77.91.8%United States of America5.16.97.00.9%Nigeria5.25.35.3-0.6%Egypt3.64.04.0-0.5%World 525.6530.1534.90.9%*Countries listed according to their position in global production(average of 2021/22-2023/24).1 Calendar year exports(s

291、econd year shown).2 May not equal the difference between supply(defined as production plus carryover stocks)and total utilization due to differences in individual country marketing years.3 Major exporters include India,Pakistan,Thailand,the UnitedStates of America and Viet Nam.2022/232023/24 fcast20

292、24/25 fcastChange:2024/25 over 2023/24milliontonnes,milled equivalent%WORLD BALANCEProduction525.6530.1534.90.9Trade 152.951.453.43.7Total utilization525.3525.0531.41.2Food422.8426.6432.51.4Ending stocks2195.8199.7205.12.7SUPPLY AND DEMAND INDICATORSPer caput food consumption:World(kg/yr)53.053.053.

293、30.5LIFDC(kg/yr)28.428.228.51.0World stocks-to-use ratio(%)37.337.638.2 Major exporters stocks-to-disappearance ratio3(%)29.231.031.9 FAO RICE PRICE INDEX(2014-2016=100)202220232024 Jan-MayChange:Jan/May 2024 over Jan/May 2023%10913213911.2programme of Sierra Leone that targets to nearly double yiel

294、ds and bring more areas under paddy cultivation.In the case of Cte dIvoire and Ghana,harvest results are still seen positive overall,given strong planting incentives prevailing at the onset of the season.This positive growth conditions could return yields in these countries to more normal levels rel

295、ative to the exceptional results of last season.Conversely,forecasts of below average rains dim expectations for Liberia,while,in the case of Nigeria,the production outlook is dampened by hikes in input costs and difficulties marketing produce following reductions in milling operations caused by hik

296、es in energy costs.Adverse weather conditions associated with the El Nio event are likewise anticipated to depress output in Mozambique and Zambia,while also slowing growth in Madagascar.Meanwhile,in Egypt,expectations of further output growth are tempered by increased competition with animal feed c

297、rops,as well as sustained state efforts to curb plantings to preserve scarce water resources.These factors could keep output somewhat below the 2023/24 result.Countries located in Latin America and the Caribbean are anticipated to harvest 18 million tonnes in 2024/25,a still below-normal harvest des

298、pite being 1.9 percent above the poor 2023/24 result.The downcast outlook primarily mirrors weather-related challenges in South America,where main crop harvests were just concluded.In Brazil,Paraguay and Uruguay,producers capacity to respond to high prices through area expansions was limited or alto

299、gether precluded by short water supplies and/or planting delays caused by El Nio-induced rains.Flooding problems aggravated losses,leading to expectations of output in Brazil remaining at its second lowest in 26 years,while harvests in Paraguay and Uruguay slide by 10.012.0 percent year-on-year.Unse

300、asonable dryness and high temperatures also impaired crops in the Plurinational State of Bolivia,Colombia,and Suriname,while Argentina could harvest its largest crop in three years amid comparatively fewer weather-induced losses.The season has unfolded more favourably in Guyana,Peru,and the Bolivari

301、an Republic of Venezuela,where positive margins combined with sufficient water supplies for irrigation could further underpin expansions.In Central America and the Caribbean,the season has only just begun.The transition towards El Nio neutral conditions would generally bode well for crops in the sub

302、-region.Still,much will depend on how the Atlantic hurricane season unfolds,as it could bring above-normal storm activity if the La Nia phenomenon soon emerges,as presaged by climate forecasting centres.Barring major setbacks,however,improved growing conditions and strong government support could su

303、stain recoveries in the Market assessments28FOOD OUTLOOKJUNE 2024Figure 6.Global rice trade and FAO All Rice Price Index Figure 4.Rice imports by regionFigure 5.Rice exports by origin051015202024202320222021202020192018201720162015million tonnes,milled eq.fcastAfricaFar EastNear East AsiaOthersLatin

304、 America&C.05101520 20232024 forecastmillion tonnes,milled eq.IndiaPakistanThailandUnited StatesViet NamOthers0153045600306090120150202420232021201920172015*January-May average for 2024million tonnes,milled eq.2014-2016=100Exports(left axis)FAO All Rice Price Index(right axis)*fcastDominican Republi

305、c and Panama,with output also seen expanding in Mexico and Nicaragua.Within the sub-region,however,serious concerns surround the persistent and acute constraints in access to basic inputs faced by producers in Cuba and Haiti.These have caused output in both countries to succumb in recent years and,i

306、n the case of Haiti,have been aggravated by an escalation of violence.In Northern America,the 2024/25 crop in the United States could exceed the already good 2023/24 outcome by 0.9 percent to reach 7 million tonnes,as high Indica prices prompt producers to expand plantings of long-grain varieties,in

307、cluding by cutting back on Japonica cultivation.In Australia,Oceanias largest rice producer,ample water supplies for irrigation and generally conducive weather are also seen sustaining a 9.3 percent annual output recovery to 370000tonnes.Production in Europe is similarly poised to normalize followin

308、g three successive seasons of below-normal results.Indeed,output in the European Union could rise by 14.0 percent year on year to 1.5 million tonnes,as abundant spring rains eased water supply constraints in Spain and Italy,the two largest EU producers.This is even if the wet spring conditions also

309、delayed Italian plantings,possibly dampening yield potential.In the Russian Federation,a 6.0 percent annual output expansion to a four-year high of 754000tonnes is expected to be sustained by prospects of favourable returns and furthered by government support under the aegis of a recently announced

310、target to nearly double rice production in three to six years.INTERNATIONAL TRADE World rice trade to fall to a four-year low in 2024International trade in rice is forecast to contract for the second successive year in 2024(January-December),passing from an estimated 52.9 million tonnes in 2023 to 5

311、1.4 million tonnes this year.If confirmed,this volume would represent a four-year trade low and,from a regional perspective,would be largely imputable to expected import cuts in Africa.Aggregate deliveries to the region,which normally accounts for close to a third of global imports,are seen 8.6 perc

312、ent below their already reduced 2023 level at an eight-year low of 15.4 million tonnes.The contraction would be consistent with the positive harvest results attained on the continent,which coupled with strong imports in 2023 could enable Guinea,Kenya,Mali,Senegal,South Africa,the United Republic of

313、Tanzania,and Togo to buy less.Amid persistent cost pressures stemming from weak local currencies,elevated international prices and,in some cases,also higher 29FOOD OUTLOOK JUNE 2024transport and insurance costs,Nigeria,as well as Egypt,Ethiopia,Ghana,Madagascar and Sierra Leone,could also slash purc

314、hases or keep them at comparatively reduced levels.This could offset import increases envisaged,namely,for Burkina Faso,Cameroon,and Cte dIvoire.Conversely,at a total of 25.3 million tonnes,aggregate imports by Asia are forecast to remain close to their overall abundant level of 2023,mainly because

315、production setbacks and/or depleted inventories could lift purchases by Far Eastern countries such as Malaysia,Nepal,the Philippines,and Timor-Leste.This could add to a second successive year of substantial purchases by Indonesia,where the government has continued to rely on imports to refurbish pub

316、lic stockpiles and service market interventions.Improved availabilities of fully broken supplies for non-food industrial uses coupled with demand for fragrant varieties are also envisaged to raise purchases by China(mainland)somewhat.However,at a forecast 3.1 million tonnes,Chinese imports would rem

317、ain well below 2021 and 2022 levels,amid expectations of lingering low demand for brokens for use in animal feed.In the Asian Near East,purchases by the Islamic Republic of Iran are forecast to accelerate in 2024,as rice imports become re-eligible for the preferential exchange rate availed by the go

318、vernment,while ample stockpiles from strong 2023 purchases could lower imports by Iraq,Trkiye,and Saudi Arabia.In the rest of the world,demand for fragrant varieties is seen underpinning purchases by the European Union and the United States.Aggregate imports by Latin America and the Caribbean also a

319、ppear poised for an 8.3 percent annual increase to 4.8 million tonnes,as production setbacks could expand imports mainly by Colombia,Mexico,Peru,and Brazil,with purchases by Brazil further bolstered by import duty suspensions and government imports seeking to contain local prices and refurbish state

320、 stockpiles.Among rice exporters,India is seen shouldering much of the forecast trade decline of 2024,given existing export prohibitions on Indian brokens and non-basmati white rice.Yet,with close to 15.4 million tonnes of shipments in 2024,India is still envisaged to remain the worlds largest rice

321、exporter due to exceptions to the export bans that were passed by the Government of India on food security grounds,still competitive parboiled pricing,and robust basmati demand.Export prospects are downcast for Viet Nam,which could see its competitive edge in the Indica market curtailed by output sh

322、ortfalls,in the context of still tepid glutinous demand from China and increased Japonica export competition.Tight exportable supplies are also expected to curtail shipments by Brazil,Paraguay,and Uruguay.Despite some increases relative to 2023 lows,Myanmars shipments are also seen at a below potent

323、ial level of 2.1 million tonnes due to profitability hurdles posed by rules on foreign exchange conversion of export earnings.Meanwhile,shipments by Thailand could remain close to the strong 2023 level,at 8.6 million tonnes sustained by demand from Asian markets,more competitively priced fragrant su

324、pplies,and forays into the Latin American market.A bumper 2023/24 crop and reduced competition in the whole-grain Indica and broken segments are also expected to lift shipments by Pakistan to a peak of 4.9 million tonnes.Deliveries by the United States are also forecast to rise to a five-year high o

325、f 3.1 million tonnes,amid strong demand from traditional Latin American outlets.Export prospects are also positive for Cambodia,owing to strong cross-border demand from Viet Nam for domestic consumption and re-export,with Argentina,Australia,China(mainland),and Guyana also seen shipping more than in

326、 2023.UTILIZATION Ample supplies to revive growth in world rice utilizationAmid ample supply prospects,world rice utilization is forecast to expand by 1.2 percent in 2024/25 to 531.4 million tonnes(milled basis).If confirmed,this level would represent a fresh historical peak and mark the first tangi

327、ble expansion in world rice uses to take place in three seasons.Food intake is envisaged to fuel this growth,absorbing 432.5 million tonnes,or 5.9 million tonnes more than in 2023/24.Taking expected population growth into account,this would result in a 0.5 percent annual increase in global per capit

328、a food intake to 53.3 kg.This forecast increase mirrors prospects of intake expansions in all regions,including in Africa and Latin America and the Caribbean,where intake has fallen for three successive seasons.On the other hand,non-food uses of rice are predicted to stagnate at around 98.9 million

329、tonnes,as price-led reductions in China(mainland)could drive feed uses further down.This could largely offset expected increases in volumes absorbed by post-harvest losses,used as seeds or for non-food industrial purposes.STOCKS Rice stocks to cross the 200 million tonne markWorld rice stocks at the

330、 close of 2024/25 seasons are predicted to expand by 2.7 percent to a record high of 205.1 million tonnes.This expansion would be sufficient to cover 4.6 months of anticipated world uses and to raise the global stocks-to-use ratio from 37.6 points in RiceMarket assessments30FOOD OUTLOOKJUNE 2024Figu

331、re 8.Stocks held by the five major rice exporters and stocks-to-disappearance ratio013263952652024/252022/232020/212018/192016/170714212835million tonnespercentIndiaViet NamThailandStocks-to-disappearance ratio(right axis)fcastPakistanUnited States 2023/24 to 38.2 points in 2024/25.As in previous se

332、asons,world reserves are expected to remain highly influenced by developments in China(mainland)and India,which,combined,are estimated to normally account for over 70 percent of global stocks.In China(mainland),subdued local demand and a comparatively timid pace of exports could boost reserves by 2.

333、8 percent to 101.8 million tonnes.In India,stocks could reach a high of 49.7 million tonnes,as government reserves could expand further due to large carry-ins and likely continued large purchases from the domestic market as enforcement of its producer price support policy.Nevertheless,aside from China(mainland),various traditional importing countries could end their respective seasons with larger