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1、Graduate employment outcomesMay 2024Analysis by Universities UKGRADUATE EMPLOYMENT OUTCOMES 2Despite evidence to the contrary,there is a continuing charge of poor quality courses-or that higher education provides little benefit to individuals some parts of the media and government.The Office for Stu

2、dents(OfS)acknowledges that 99%of students in England are on courses where employment outcomes satisfy requirements.There is a risk that an unevidenced focus on low quality despite the evidence will impact on the real benefits that higher education providers to individuals and local areas.Background

3、 Proportion of students with progression outcomes below quality thresholdsSource:Office for Students key performance measures 3To inform this debate,Universities UK(UUK)analysed a range of data sources looking at employment and earnings outcomes of graduates,how these change after time,and how they

4、compare to those non-graduates who could have gone to university but didnt.This analysis allows us to go beyond standard measures used by the regulator and government,that focus on outcomes 15 months after graduation.This includes use of official government data that links student and tax records,to

5、 track and compare the earnings of graduates and those non-graduates who could have attended university,over a period of 15 years.Our analysis focuses on:1.Earnings pathways for graduates and non-graduates 2.Patterns of employment outcomes for graduatesScope of analysisGRADUATE EMPLOYMENT OUTCOMES 4

6、The bulk of this analysis is based on data published by the Department of Education(DfE)on graduate outcomes,including:Longitudinal Education Outcomes(LEO):post-16 education and labour market activities and outcomes.This looks at the employment outcomes for those individuals who finished their GCSEs

7、 at a school in England.It provides data on average earnings over the 15-year period after finishing school,by a range of characteristics including whether someone studied a higher education qualification,and a range of individual characteristics.LEO Graduate and Postgraduate Outcomes.This looks at

8、employment and earnings outcomes for those who graduated with a first degree(level 6),level 7 or level 8 qualification,but a range of characteristics.All UUK analysis compares graduate outcomes against non-graduates who achieved a Level 3 qualification or above(ie levels 3-5).A full level 3 qualific

9、ation is two A-level passes or equivalent,while level 4 and 5 qualifications include Higher National Certificates(HNCs),Higher National Diplomas(HNDs)and equivalent qualifications.Individuals with these qualification are likely to have been able to progress to university but chose not to.The analysi

10、s does not compare graduate outcomes to the wider population,including those with level 2 as their highest qualification,where the gap in earnings is likely to be greater.Sources and methodologyGRADUATE EMPLOYMENT OUTCOMES Earnings pathways for graduates and non-graduates 6Graduates have higher leve

11、ls of employment across all regions in England by age 31,with the gap between graduates and non-graduates ranging from 4 to 8 percentage points.Non-graduates report higher levels of out of work benefits by age 31,with the gap ranging from 3 to 5 percentage points and London reporting the largest dif

12、ference.Graduates are more likely to be in employment and less likely to be on out of work benefits by age 31 than non-graduates who could have entered higher education15 years after KS4Employment(%)Out of work benefits(%)Further study(%)Region of school(region in which individuals went to school)Gr

13、aduates(%)Non graduates(%)Gap(pp)Graduates(%)Non graduates(%)Gap(pp)Graduates(%)Non graduates(%)Gap(pp)North East7062826-4810-2North West7063725-468-2Yorkshire and the Humber7163714-368-2London6558727-5660West Midland7164725-368-2South West6863514-267-1East Midlands7065514-368-1East of England706551

14、4-3550South East6864414-2560GRADUATE EMPLOYMENT OUTCOMES 7While graduates are in full-time study,non-graduates who could have entered HE on average earn 33,500 more.After graduation and upon entering the labour market,from age 23 to age 31:Average graduate earnings increase at a greater rate(72%vs 3

15、1%)Graduates on average earn 52,000 more over this period,more than making up the earlier difference.Graduate earnings increase at a faster rate after entering employment than non-graduates who could have entered higher education 3,56217,86330,7515,01417,19622,48205,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,000

16、35,00040,000171819202122232425262728293031Average earnings (annual)Years of ageGraduatesNon graduates(Achieving level 3 or above)Cumulative difference between graduates and non-graduates(years 7-15):51,958Cumulative difference between non-graduates and graduates(years 1-6):33,494Total earnings for g

17、raduates(years 1-15):270,474Total earnings for non-graduates(years 1-15):252,010GRADUATE EMPLOYMENT OUTCOMES 8After graduating and entering the labour market,from age 23 to 31:Graduates from the most deprived backgrounds(those who received free school meals)on average see their earnings grow by 75%c

18、ompared to 26%for non-graduates from the same background,who could have studied at university but chose not to.Over this period,graduates from deprived backgrounds end up earning 41,400 more than non-graduates,more than making up the initial head start of those who chose to go into employment rather

19、 than university.This graduate premium is also evident for those from the most deprived backgrounds 3,94014,83125,9795,15514,92718,86605,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,000123456789101112131415Average earnings (annual)Years after key stage 4(full tax years)Graduates-Eligible for FSMNon graduates

20、-Achieving level 3 or above-Eligible for FSMCumulative difference between graduates and non-graduates(years 8-15):41,372Cumulative difference between non-graduates and graduates(years 1-7):24,471Total earnings for graduates(years 1-15):234,720Total earnings for non-graduates(years 1-15):217,819GRADU

21、ATE EMPLOYMENT OUTCOMES 9This earnings gap between graduates and non graduates expands significantly over an individuals working life GRADUATE EMPLOYMENT OUTCOMES Beyond age 30,evidence shows the gap in earnings between graduates and non-graduates continues to diverge substantially.Median earnings o

22、f male graduates grow strongly and outstrip those of non-graduates.The IFS predict that for male graduates who were aged 30 in 2016,earnings rise by 15k to age 40,compared with a just 5k for non-graduate men.Median earnings growth for female graduates is moderate,but still higher than that of non-gr

23、aduates.The IFS predict earnings for female graduates who were aged 30 in 2016,rise by around 5k to age 40,compared with no growth for non-graduate women.10Between ages 17 and 22,average earnings of non-graduates are higher across all regions of England as they enter the workforce while graduates ar

24、e in full-time study.From 23 years of age onwards,average earnings of graduates progressively overtake those of non-graduates.By age 31,on average graduates earn around a third more(32-37%)than non-graduates who could have gone to university across all regions of England.Graduate earnings overtake t

25、hose of non-graduates who could have entered higher education soon after they leave university The earnings premium of graduates compared to non-graduates(achieving level 3 or above)by region of school attended and years after finishing GCSEsNorth East North WestYorkshire and The HumberEast Midlands

26、West MidlandsEast of England LondonSouth EastSouth West17-29%-32%-33%-32%-29%-27%-24%-25%-29%18-40%-45%-47%-48%-44%-48%-39%-44%-45%19-52%-56%-58%-60%-57%-65%-56%-64%-63%20-57%-61%-63%-65%-62%-70%-63%-70%-70%21-48%-50%-52%-54%-52%-58%-56%-60%-61%22-19%-20%-20%-20%-20%-22%-30%-26%-29%233%3%3%4%5%4%3%4

27、%0%2414%15%15%16%17%16%16%17%15%2521%23%23%22%24%22%23%23%23%2626%27%27%27%29%25%25%27%28%2729%31%31%30%33%28%27%30%31%2833%33%33%33%35%30%29%32%33%2934%35%35%34%36%32%30%34%35%3034%35%35%36%36%33%32%35%36%3135%36%35%37%36%32%34%35%35%Years of ageLine shows typical age of graduation and entry into l

28、abour market for university graduates on a three-year first degree GRADUATE EMPLOYMENT OUTCOMES There are further substantial lifetime returns from going to university 430k110k20%85%The difference in lifetime earnings between graduates and non-graduates is 430k for men and 260k for women.The gross a

29、verage lifetime earnings gain from undergraduate degrees is substantial for both men and women The gain to the exchequer of individuals attending HE is 110k per student for men and 30k per student for women.Financing undergraduate degrees is expensive for the taxpayer,but it is more than counterbala

30、nced by increased tax revenuesSource:Institute for Fiscal Studies,The impact of undergraduate degrees on lifetime earnings,February 2020-figures have been calculated/estimated using the tax and student loan system as of 2019 Overall,IFS expect 85%of women and 75%of men to achieve positive net lifeti

31、me returns from going to university Even accounting for student loans and taxes,the earnings premium is 130k for men and 100k for women-a gain in net lifetime earnings of 20%for both men and women.Patterns of graduate employment outcomes13Graduate outcomes across Higher Education Institutions(HEIs),

32、Further Education Colleges(FECs)and Alternative Providers(APs),also vary:Graduates from HEIs are more likely to be in sustained employment or further study.Five years after graduation this is 3 percentage points higher in HEIs than FECs and 6.5 pp higher than APs.Five years after graduation,graduate

33、s from HEIs on average earn 6,200 more per year than those from APs and 8,000 more than those from FECs.There are also differences in earnings based on the type of provider that someone studies for their degreeSustained employment,further study or both(%)Total median earnings()Provider typeOne year

34、after graduationThree years after graduationFive years after graduationTen years after graduationOne year after graduationThree years after graduationFive years after graduationTen years after graduationHigher Education Institutions(HEIs)87.087.987.084.321,900 25,900 29,200 33,200 Further Education

35、Colleges(FECs)81.984.183.782.016,800 19,000 21,200 23,700 Alternative Providers(APs)78.879.480.5-16,800 20,100 23,000-GRADUATE EMPLOYMENT OUTCOMES 14There is a sustained gap in the employment/further study rate between graduates from a free school meals(FSM)background,and those that arent(around 5%o

36、ne,three and five years after graduation).The earnings of graduates from a free school meals background increases by 38%compared to 40%for non-FSM in the first 5 years after graduation.The gap in earnings between graduates with FSM and non-FSM increases,from 1,900 to 2,900,in the first 5 years after

37、 graduation.Underlying factors related to social economic status(associated with eligibility for FSM)impact both employment/further study and earningsSustained employment,further study or both(%)Total median earnings()Graduate characteristicOne year after graduationThree years after graduationFive y

38、ears after graduationTen years after graduationOne year after graduationThree years after graduationFive years after graduationTen years after graduationFSM83.184.483.8-19,00023,40026,300-non-FSM87.789.588.8-20,80025,20029,200-Not known85.586.185.2-23,00028,10033,600-GRADUATE EMPLOYMENT OUTCOMES 15F

39、or first degree graduates,earnings grow progressively over time across all regions(based on the region a graduate lives in).The largest increase is seen in London,where earnings 10 years after graduation are 76%higher than 1 year after graduation.On average,graduate earnings are just under 30,000 ac

40、ross all regions of the UK 10 years after graduation,and above 40,000 in LondonAverage graduate earnings increase over time across all regions 05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00045,000NorthEastNorthWestYorkshireand theHumberEastMidlandsWestMidlandsEast ofEnglandLondonSouthEastSouthWestS

41、cotlandWalesNorthernIrelandMedian earnings Region where graduate livesOne year after graduationThree years after graduationFive years after graduationTen years after graduationGRADUATE EMPLOYMENT OUTCOMES 16Non graduates earn more than their graduate counterparts across all ethnic groups in the firs

42、t 5 years after KS4.10 and 15 years after KS4,graduate earnings are increasingly larger than non graduates across all ethnic groups.The difference in earnings between graduates and non graduates who could have entered HE(ie achieving level 3 or above)by ethnic groups increases over timeAt age 21At a

43、ge 26At age 31GraduatesNon graduatesGraduate premiumGraduatesNon graduatesGraduate premiumGraduatesNon graduatesGraduate premiumBritish Asian Bangladeshi6,87111,157-38%23,53517,63233%27,39520,68632%British Asian Indian6,54211,287-42%26,58919,63635%32,51523,66737%British Asian Pakistani6,58810,480-37

44、%21,72916,37333%25,26917,32846%British Black African6,4268,322-23%23,22417,59032%28,68621,65332%British Black Caribbean6,97510,985-37%21,62817,45124%26,02219,85831%British Chinese5,9259,659-39%26,71818,74343%32,85222,22048%White British7,17315,513-54%24,78419,76825%29,96722,47233%White Non-British6,45115,051-57%25,86320,64125%31,99723,16038%British Mixed White Asian6,17213,953-56%26,09319,75632%NANANAMixed White Black African6,76313,030-48%24,25919,34125%NANANAMixed White Black Caribbean7,21713,641-47%23,22618,87323%NANANAGRADUATE EMPLOYMENT OUTCOMES