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1、G lob a l Ma rke t OutlookS up p orte d b y:www.sola rp owe re urop e.orgF OCU S ON CHI NAF or S ola r P owe r 2024-20283F o r e wo r d Wel come to the Gl obal Mar k et Outl ook for Sol ar Power 2024-2028.F or a n e sta b lishe d se c tor like sola r,a p p roa c hing d oub le growth in one ye a r wa

2、 s simp ly not p a rt of a ny a na lysts sc rip t.But it ha p p e ne d in 2023.T he world d e p loye d 447 G W of ne w sola r P V c a p a c ity la st ye a r;a n inc re d ib le 87%more tha n 2022 a nd a c hie ving a growth ra te we ha ve nt se e n sinc e 2010,whe n the glob a l sola r ma rke t wa s o

3、nly 4%of tod a ys size.I n la st ye a rs G lob a l Ma rke t O utlook,we a c tua lly d id a ntic ip a te growth for se ve ra l re a sons,b ut not a s high a s wha t wa s a c hie ve d.At tha t time,a ve ry strong growth in glob a l ma nufa c turing c a p a c itie s wa s a lre a d y visib le,ma king p

4、rod uc ts a va ila b le a ga in a fte r the p re ssure s of the p a nd e mic a nd e ne rgy c risis.T his,of c ourse,a lso b rought ove rc a p a c ity e ffe c tive ly d oub ling sup p ly a ga inst d e ma nd.R e sulting p ric e d rop s trigge re d b y he fty c omp e tition from a ll the se ne w c a p

5、a c itie s wa s e xp e c te d a s we ll(though not a t the se ve rity the ind ustry e ve ntua lly e xp e rie nc e d).I n fa c t,our growth fore c a st for a ll glob a l ma rke ts c omb ine d,othe r tha n China,wa s ne a rly sp ot on we d e via te d only b y 3%a b solute.T he a c c ura c y a nd va lu

6、e of the a nnua l G lob a l Ma rke t O utlook for S ola r P owe r would not b e p ossib le without the ind ustry sta ke hold e rs a nd a ll na tiona l a nd re giona l sola r ind ustry a ssoc ia tions tha t p rovid e the ir inp ut a nd e xp e rtise e a c h ye a r.We would like to e xte nd our gra tit

7、ud e to those e xp e rts a nd the ir orga nisa tions in sup p orting our ma p p ing a nd mod e lling work,a nd p a rtic ula rly those from the 31 a nnua l G W-sc a le sola r ma rke ts tha t wrote in-d e p th fe a ture s of the ir home ma rke ts for this ye a rs e d ition(se e p.81).H owe ve r,the ma

8、 rke t tha t is c ontinua lly d iffic ult to a ntic ip a te re ma ins to b e China,the world s la rge st sola r ma rke t b y fa r,whic h b oome d b y 167%in a single ye a r.T his c ountry a lone wa s re sp onsib le for 57%of glob a l insta lle d c a p a c ity in 2023,a d d ing a qua rte r of a T W,b

9、 a sic a lly the sa me a mount tha t the e ntire world ha d d e p loye d in the p re vious ye a r.T he ma ssive p ric e c olla p se s of a round 50%for mod ule s in 2023 a lone trigge re d unfore se e n growth,d rive n b y p ric e e la stic ity on the d e ma nd sid e.T o b e tte r und e rsta nd sola

10、 r d e ve lop me nts in China,this ye a rs re p ort c ove rs the c ountry in a d e d ic a te d c ha p te r,p rovid e d b y the G lob a l S ola r Counc il a nd its p a rtne r the Chine se R e ne wa b le Ene rgy I nd ustrie s Assoc ia tion(CR EI A)(se e p.61).S o,wha ts in store for sola r this ye a r

11、 a nd b e yond?F or the sup p ly sid e,the P V ma nufa c turing ind ustry will c ontinue to suffe r from re c ord-low p ric e s a nd ove rc a p a c itie s how long will d e p e nd on the c onsolid a tion sp e e d in the se c tor.T he d e ma nd sid e will furthe r b e ne fit from low p rod uc t p ric

12、 e s tha t will sta y a ma in d rive r in a d iffic ult ma c ro-e c onomic e nvironme nt.We will se e the c lima te e me rge nc y c ontinuing to c a p ture gove rnme nts a tte ntion a nd e ne rgy se c urity re ma ining the ne w c omp e lling a rgume nt to inve st in sola r p owe r in a quic kly fra

13、gme nting world ord e r.F urthe r d rive n b y c ost imp rove me nts a nd the nume rous b e ne fits the te c hnology p rovid e s,we ha ve inc re a se d our most like ly outlook to 544 G W in 2024,b a se d on a 22%Y oY growth,a nd low two-d igit imp rove me nts to a n a nnua l ma rke t of 876 G W in

14、2028.We ha ve b e e n he a ring d oub ts from ma ny a na lysts if sola r c a n grow muc h b e yond tod a ys a nnua l insta lla tion le ve ls.While ob viously the re will b e a n e ve ntua l limit,we d ont fore se e this a ny time soon.Who would ha ve thought tha t only a ye a r a go tha t China woul

15、d insta ll ove r 250 G W la st ye a r?N ob od y!We should a lso re me mb e r,sola rs sha re in glob a l e le c tric ity ge ne ra tion wa s only a t 5.5%in 2023,China s insta lle d wa tt p e r c a p ita wa s 460 W/c,a nd MEA on a ve ra ge only 27 W/c,c omp a re d to 1,359 W/c in Austra lia the re s c

16、 le a rly quite some room to grow.F or the first time in our five-ye a r fore c a sting p e riod,our H igh S c e na rio is touc hing a n a nnua l T W d e p loyme nt ra te in 2028.While the P V ind ustry is re a d y for more,it now hinge s on p olic yma ke rs c re a ting the right le ga l fra me work

17、s to e na b le sola r in unfold ing its full p ote ntia l.T ha ts why,for the first time,this e d ition c onta ins p olic y re c omme nd a tions from sola rs glob a l ind ustry orga nisa tion,the G lob a l S ola r Counc il(se e p.57).T his inc lud e s a sks for se tting a mb itious na tiona l ta rge

18、 ts,a nd imme d ia te e fforts to unle a sh the fle xib ility re volution b y sc a ling up inve stme nts in b a tte ry stora ge,grid s,a nd e le c trific a tion.We a lso urge ntly ne e d d ive rsific a tion on b oth the sup p ly a nd d e ma nd sid e,a nd p le nty of fina nc ing.T o the se c tors gra

19、 tific a tion,the re c e nt I EA World Ene rgy I nve stme nt 2024 re p ort re ve a le d tha t inve stme nt in sola r surp a sse d a ll othe r ge ne ra tion te c hnologie s c omb ine d.H owe ve r,the re re ma ins se ve re d isp a rity in glob a l re ne wa b le inve stme nt flows.T wo third s of the w

20、orld s p op ula tion,living in e me rging a nd d e ve lop ing e c onomie s outsid e China,only re c e ive d 15%of glob a l inve stme nt.L a st ye a rs CO P sa w world le a d e rs c ommitting to trip le world re ne wa b le s b y 2030 to a c hie ve 11 T W,a nd this ye a rs CO P 29 must a c c ord ingly

21、 se t the fina nc e p la n for the tra nsition for the c ountrie s most in ne e d.T he c lima te c risis,a nd b re a c hing 1.5C wa rming,is b a rre lling towa rd us like a fre ight tra in.We hop e this ye a rs G lob a l Ma rke t O utlook sup p orts the sola r se c tor in b uild ing a ne w tra c k t

22、owa rd more susta ina b le a nd se c ure p rosp e rity for a ll.Enj oy r eadi ng our Gl obal Mar k et Outl ook.WALBURGA HEMETSBERGER CEO,S ola rP owe r Europ eMICHAEL SCHMELA Exe c utive Ad visor a nd Dire c tor of Ma rke t I nte llige nc e,S ola rP owe r Europ eSONIA DUNLOP CEO,G lob a l S ola r Co

23、unc il G lob a l Ma rke t Outlook F or S ola r P owe r 2024-20284P r o j e c t L e a d:Mic ha e l S c hme la,S ola rP owe r Europ e.P r o j e c t ma na ge r:R a ffa e le R ossi,S ola rP owe r Europ e.Ma r k e t i nte l l i ge nc e a nd i nte r na l c o-a uth o r s:Antonio Arrue b o,J ona tha n G orr

24、e ma ns,L e a h L e P nuizic,Christop he L its,R a ffa e le R ossi,&Mic ha e l S c hme la,S ola rP owe r Europ e.E xte r na l c o-a uth o r s:Ab d a lla h Alsha ma li,G lob a l S ola r Counc il(G S C);S te ve Blume,S ma rt Ene rgy Counc il(S EC);R od rigo L op e s S a ua ia&R a fa e l F ra nc isc o

25、Ma rque s,Bra zilia n P hotovolta ic S ola r Ene rgy Assoc ia tion(ABS OL AR);Da vid R a u,Chile a n S ola r Assoc ia tion(ACES OL);Chine se P hotovolta ic I nd ustry Assoc ia tion(CP I A);S ub ra hma nya m P ulip a ka&S hub ha ng P a re kh,N a tiona l S ola r Ene rgy F e d e ra tion of I nd ia (N S

26、 EF I);T a ke a ki Ma suka wa,J a p a n P hotovolta ic Ene rgy Assoc ia tion(J P EA);N e lson R.De lga d o Contre ra s,Me xic a n Assoc ia tion of S ola r Ene rgy(Asolme x);Wa qa s Moosa,P a kista n S ola r Assoc ia tion(P S A);T a nnishtha Da s&H ind e L ie p ma nnsohn,Mid d le Ea st S ola r I nd u

27、stry Assoc ia tion(MES I A);De We t T a lj a a rd,S outh Afric a n P V I nd ustry Assoc ia tion(S AP V I A);Donggun L im,K ore a N a tiona l U nive rsity of T ra nsp orta tion;Da vid S tic ke lb e rge r,S wissola r;S huY u Y a ng,I nd ustria l T e c hnology R e se a rc h I nstitute (I T R I)&Da nie

28、l L e e,T a iwa n P hotovolta ic I nd ustry Assoc ia tion(T P V I A);T urkish S ola r Ene rgy Assoc ia tion(G N DER);G a re th S imkins,S ola r Ene rgy U K;S ola r Ene rgy I nd ustrie s Assoc ia tion(S EI A).E xte r na l c o ntr i b uto r s:P V Austria (AT);P V-V la a nd e re n&EDO R A(BE);AP S T E(

29、BG);S olrn Asoc ia c e (CZ);BS W-S ola r(DE);Europ e a n Ene rgy,G re e n P owe r De nma rk&DP V A(DK);H EL AP CO(EL);U N EF (ES);S ER (F R);OI E(H R);MAN AP (H U);G EA-I L (I L);I S EA(I R);AN I E R innova b ili,Ele ttric it F utura&I ta lia S ola re (I T);L S EA(L T);H olla nd S ola r(N L);P S F&P

30、 V P ola nd (P L);AP R EN (P T);R P I A(R O);S ve nsk S ole ne rgi(S E);Z S F V (S I).S up p o r te d b y:I nte rsola r Europ e,G lob a l S ola r Counc il(G S C).P l e a s e c i te a s:S ola rP owe r Europ e (2024):Glo bal Market Outlo o k fo r So lar Po wer 2 02 4-2 02 8.F o r me d i a us e a nd q

31、ue r i e s:Be tha ny Me b a n,S ola rP owe r Europ e,b.me b a nsola rp owe urop e.org.D a te o f p ub l i c a ti o n:J une 2024.I S BN:9789464669169.T h a nk s to o ur s p o ns o r me mb e r s:D e s i gn:One he misp he re AB,S we d e n.c onta c tone he misp he re.se C o nta c t:infosola rp owe re ur

32、op e.org.Me th o d o l o gy:S ola rP owe r Europ e s five-ye a r fore c a st c onsists of L ow,Me d ium a nd H igh S c e na rios.T he Me d ium sc e na rio a ntic ip a te s the most like ly d e ve lop me nt give n the c urre nt sta te of p la y of the ma rke t.T he L ow S c e na rio fore c a st is b

33、a se d on the a ssump tion tha t p olic yma ke rs ha lt sola r sup p ort a nd othe r issue s a rise,inc lud ing inte re st ra te hike s a nd se ve re fina nc ia l c risis situa tions.Conve rse ly,the H igh S c e na rio fore c a sts the b e st op tima l c a se in whic h p olic y sup p ort,fina nc ia

34、l c ond itions a nd othe r fa c tors a re e nha nc e d.S e gme nta tion is b a se d on the following syste m size:R e sid e ntia l(10 kW);Comme rc ia l(250 kW);I nd ustria l(1000 kW,ground-mounte d).S ola rP owe r Europ e s me thod ology inc lud e s only grid-c onne c te d syste ms.I nsta lle d c a

35、p a c ity is a lwa ys e xp re sse d in DC,unle ss othe rwise sta te d.All figure s a re b a se d on S ola rP owe r Europ e s b e st knowle d ge a t the time of p ub lic a tion.D i s c l a i me r:T his re p ort ha s b e e n p re p a re d b y S ola rP owe r Europ e.I t is b e ing furnishe d to the re

36、c ip ie nts for ge ne ra l informa tion only.N othing in it should b e inte rp re te d a s a n offe r or re c omme nd a tion of a ny p rod uc ts,se rvic e s or fina nc ia l p rod uc ts.T his re p ort d oe s not c onstitute te c hnic a l,inve stme nt,le ga l,ta x or a ny othe r a d vic e.R e c ip ie

37、nts should c onsult with the ir own te c hnic a l,fina nc ia l,le ga l,ta x or othe r a d visors a s ne e d e d.T his re p ort is b a se d on sourc e s b e lie ve d to b e a c c ura te.H owe ve r,S ola rP owe r Europ e d oe s not wa rra nt the a c c ura c y or c omp le te ne ss of a ny informa tion

38、c onta ine d in this re p ort.S ola rP owe r Europ e a ssume s no ob liga tion to up d a te a ny informa tion c onta ine d he re in.S ola rP owe r Europ e will not b e he ld lia b le for a ny d ire c t or ind ire c t d a ma ge inc urre d b y the use of the informa tion p rovid e d a nd will not p ro

39、vid e a ny ind e mnitie s.U nle ss othe rwise sta te d,the c op yright a nd othe r inte lle c tua l p rop e rty rights of ma rke t inte llige nc e d a ta a nd re sourc e s p rovid e d a re owne d b y S ola rP owe r Europ e.T a b l e o f c o nte ntsF o r e wo r d 3 E xe c uti v e s umma r y 6 1 Gl o

40、b a l s o l a r ma r k e t 12 Update 2000-2023 17 Pr os pects 2024-2028 35 Segments 2023-2028 4 9 Sol ar outl ook to 2030 5 2 2 P o l i c y r e c o mme nd a ti o ns b y GS C 5 7 3 F o c us:C h i na s o l a r P V ma r k e t b y GS C 6 1 4 GW-s c a l e ma r k e ts 8 1Real-Time Solar Data and Power Mod

41、elingIndustry-leading accuracy.Proven reliability.Integration ready.Rely on SolarAnywhere accuracy and an enterprise-class API to scale your performance benchmarking and real-time monitoring.Visit to learn more and start a trial of SolarAnywhere SystemCheck real-time data.Real-Time Monitoring&Perfor

42、mance AssessmentSolar Resource Assessment&ProspectingIrradiance&Power ForecastingReal-time,weather-adjusted PV production estimates are critical for optimizing solar asset performance.Asset management and O&M teams are streamlining processes and reducing costs by integrating SolarAnywhere real-time

43、solar data into their monitoring platforms.Take advantage of the accuracy,reliability and accessibility offered by the SolarAnywhere API.Get started at: nowcast solar data to achieve operational excellence Highly-accurate,globally available real-time data,trailing 45 days through current hour Rich,s

44、olar-speci昀c data elements such as irradiance,albedo,snow depth and more Conduct site-speci昀c energy simulations using open-source models such as pvlib Fully documented,stable,modern API architecture that is proven to meet rigorous enterprise requirementsG lob a l Ma rke t Outlook F or S ola r P owe

45、 r 2024-20286In 2023,the wor l d gr i d-connected 4 4 7 GW of new s ol ar capaci ty,whi ch,once agai n,domi nated the newl y added gl obal power gener ati on capaci ty.Sol ar PV accounted for 7 8%out of 5 7 6 GW of new r enewabl e capaci ty added l as t year.Sol ar s s har e of new r enewabl e capac

46、i ty i ncr eas ed cons i der abl y,up 12 per centage poi nts fr om the 6 6%contr i buted i n 2022 and 22 per centage poi nts mor e than the 5 6%i n 2021.Thi s new r ecor d confi r ms s ol ar s r ol e as an es tabl i s hed and s ti l l r i s i ng l eader of the gl obal ener gy tr ans i ti on,i ns tal

47、 l i ng over thr ee ti mes mor e capaci ty than al l other r enewabl e technol ogi es combi ned.E xe c uti v e s umma r y300 MW fi s her y-s ol ar pl ant,Shandong,Chi na.HuaweiFIGURE 1 NET R ENEWABL E P OWER GENER AT I NG CAP ACI T Y I NS T AL L ED I N 2023 Hydro:7 GW,1.2%Wind:117 GW,20%Other RE:1 G

48、W,0.2%Biomass:4 GW,0.8%Solar:447 GW,78%576 GWSOURCES:GWEC(2024),I R EN A(2024),S ola rP owe r Europ e.S OL AR P OWER EU R OP E 2024T he 447 G W of ne w sola r c a p a c ity b roke a ny p re vious re c ord a nd fa r e xc e e d e d a ny sola r a na lysts e xp e c ta tions,ma rking a n e xtra ord ina r

49、y 87%growth ra te (se e F ig.2).T his c omp a re s to 2022s a d d ition of 239 G W a nd 46%ye a r-on-ye a r growth.T he surge in insta lle d sola r c a p a c ity c a n b e a ttrib ute d to se ve ra l ke y fa c tors.F irstly,a signific a nt inc re a se in glob a l P V ma nufa c turing c a p a c itie

50、s gre a tly imp rove d the a va ila b ility of sola r mod ule s following the sup p ly c ha in issue s e xp e rie nc e d d uring the p a nd e mic.T his c a p a c ity e xp a nsion re sulte d in ove rc a p a c itie s a nd se ve re p ric e d rop s for syste m c omp one nts ove r the c ourse of 2023,wit

51、h mod ule s va lue s fa lling b y a round 50%.I n a d d ition,the e ffe c ts of the 2022 glob a l e ne rgy c risis c ontinue d to stimula te d e ma nd a c ross va rious re gions.G ove rnme nts,ind ivid ua ls,a nd b usine sse s turne d to sola r p owe r a s a re lia b le a nd c ost-e ffe c tive solut

52、ion to high e ne rgy p ric e s,while a c c e le ra te d e le c trific a tion of the he a t a nd tra nsp ort se c tors a lso ga ine d muc h more a tte ntion.Ma ny ord e rs from 2021 a nd 2022 we re fina lly insta lle d in 2023,tha nks to the inc re a se d a va ila b ility of p rod uc ts a nd insta ll

53、e rs a t more a fford a b le p ric e s.G lob a l Ma rke t Outlook F or S ola r P owe r 2024-20287FIGURE 2 ANNU AL S OL AR P V I NS T AL L ED CAP ACI T Y 2000-20230GWEuropeAMERAPACChinaMEA20002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202318%46%44787%50100

54、150200250300350400450500 S OL AR P OWER EU R OP E 2024While the sc a le of 2023s growth wa s unp re c e d e nte d,it ne e d s to b e highlighte d tha t most of this glob a l ma rke t e xp a nsion wa s d rive n b y a nd in China.T he world s la rge st sola r p rod uc t sup p lie r a nd ma rke t for y

55、e a rs,China b roke a ny p re vious re c ord b y a d d ing a n inc re d ib le 253 G W of ne w sola r P V c a p a c ity in 2023,ma rking a 167%ye a r-on-ye a r growth ra te.Me a nwhile,the re st of the world insta lle d only 194 G W of ne w sola r P V,re fle c ting a 35%inc re a se from the 144 G W d

56、 e p loye d in 2022(F ig.3).I n othe r word s,without China s strong sola r inve stme nts in d e p loyme nt,the sola r se c tors growth would ha ve b e e n muc h more mod e st.Eight of the top 10 la rge st sola r ma rke ts e xp e rie nc e d growth in 2023,with only I nd ia a nd J a p a n e xp e rie

57、nc ing a d ownturn in the ir ma rke t.T he U nite d S ta te s got b a c k on tra c k a fte r a turb ule nt sola r b usine ss ye a r in 2022 a nd re c ord e d a 48%growth ra te in 2023,with 32.4 G W of sola r P V grid-c onne c te d.G e rma ny insta lle d 15 G W in 2023,ma rking a ne w re c ord for a

58、ny Europ e a n c ountry.T he p re vious re c ord wa s he ld b y I ta ly with 9.3 G W insta lle d long b a c k in 2011,d uring the first b oom p ha se of the Europ e a n sola r story.Comp rise d toge the r,the top 10 ma rke ts re p re se nte d 80%of the glob a l sola r P V ma rke t in 2023.E xe c uti

59、 v e s umma r y/c ontinue dG lob a l Ma rke t Outlook F or S ola r P owe r 2024-20288FIGURE 3 T OP 10 S OL AR P V MAR K ET S,2022-2023020406080100300200150250GW20232022ChinaUnited StatesNetherlandsJapanSpainIndiaAustraliaBrazilItalyGermany25332.415.415.012.58.96.25.25.14.921.910.97.417.48.46.52.54.0

60、4.194.7 S OL AR P OWER EU R OP E 2024We a ntic ip a te sub sta ntia l d e ma nd growth for sola r P V p owe r in the c oming ye a rs,d rive n b y furthe r c ost imp rove me nts,p rod uc t a va ila b ility,a nd the nume rous b e ne fits the te c hnology p rovid e s.Clima te e me rge nc y will c ontin

61、ue to c a p ture gove rnme nts a tte ntion,while e ne rgy se c urity will re ma in a c omp e lling a rgume nt to inve st in sola r p owe r in a quic kly fra gme nting world ord e r.F or 2024,our Me d ium S c e na rio fore c a sts a glob a l growth ra te of 22%to a ma rke t size of 544 GW,a p p roxim

62、a te ly 100 G W more tha n in 2023(se e F ig.4).As we ve se e n in re c e nt ye a rs,c urre nt glob a l ma rke t fore c a sting will d e p e nd la rge ly on ge tting China s sola r d e p loyme nt right d ue to its outsta nd ing p osition in the glob a l P V la nd sc a p e.With a na lysts se ve re ly

63、 und e r-e stima ting China s ma rke t e xp a nsion in the p a st,a nd se ve ra l re a sons sp e a king for furthe r growth,we e stima te d e p loyme nts of 299 G W,a ye a r-on-ye a r up tic k of 18%.Mod e lling va ria tions d e p e nd ing on p olic y a nd e c onomic d e ve lop me nts,our more op ti

64、mistic High S c e na rio p roj e c ts 45%a nnua l growth to 647 GW,while our L ow S c e na rio a ntic ip a te s only 3%growth to 461 G W in 2024.I n the mid-run,a nnua l glob a l ma rke t insta lla tions re a c h 614 GW in 2025 und e r the Me d ium S c e na rio,a 13%inc re a se from 544 GW in 2024,f

65、ollowe d b y a 12%inc re a se to 687 G W in 2026,12%to 773 G W in 2027,a nd 13%to 876 G W in 2028.G lob a l Ma rke t Outlook F or S ola r P owe r 2024-20289FIGURE 4 WOR L D ANNU AL S OL AR P V MAR K ET S CENAR I OS 2024-2028 2019202020212022202320242025202620272028447Historical dataLow ScenarioMediu

66、m ScenarioHigh ScenarioMedium Scenario02004006008001,0001,200GW64754413%12%12%13%22%6146877731,112876668461 S OL AR P OWER EU R OP E 2024G lob a l Ma rke t Outlook F or S ola r P owe r 2024-202810E xe c uti v e s umma r yAfte r surp a ssing the 1.6 T W le ve l in 2023,the glob a l sola r p owe r fle

67、 e t is on tra c k to e xc e e d 2 T W b y 2024(se e F ig.5).Our Me d ium S c e na rio e stima te s 2.2 T W in 2024,2.8 T W in 2025,3.5 T W in 2026,4.2 T W in 2027,a nd 5.1 T W in 2028 a fore c a st tha t is signific a ntly highe r tha n la st ye a rs Me d ium S c e na rio.L ooking b e yond our tra

68、d itiona l 5-ye a r fore c a st horizon to 2030 a s a signific a nt mile stone ye a r on the p a th to glob a l ne t ze ro a simp le e xtra p ola tion of our Me d ium S c e na rio 2024-2028 p roj e c ts 7.4 T W of sola r op e ra ting c a p a c ity world wid e,whic h is a b ove a ny of the most re c

69、e nt 2030 e stima te s of le a d ing sola r a na lysts.T he strong P V e xp a nsion in 2023 b rought a ne w re c ord numb e r of size a b le sola r ma rke ts.T he numb e r of G W-sc a le sola r ma rke ts c ountrie s insta lling a t le a st 1 G W inc re a se d from 28 in 2022 to 31 in 2023,14 of whic

70、 h a re loc a te d in the Europ e a n U nion.We e stima te this group to furthe r a ugme nt to 37 G W-sc a le ma rke ts in 2024 a nd 50 in 2025.With China s d omina nt sola r role furthe r inc re a sing to unknown he ights,we ha ve p ic ke d the c ountry a s this ye a rs foc us the me.T he c ha p te

71、 r wa s c ontrib ute d b y the G lob a l S ola r Counc il(G S C),whic h a lso p rovid e d a nothe r ne w a d d ition P olic y R e c omme nd a tions a d d re ssing the ke y c ha lle nge s for the glob a l sola r se c tor.FIGURE 5 WOR L D CUMUL AT I V E S OL AR P V MAR K ET S CENAR I OS 2024-202820192

72、0202021202220232024202520262027202801,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,000GW1,6242,2702,16721%22%25%28%33%2,7813,4694,2415,9205,1174,4212,085Historical dataLow ScenarioMedium ScenarioHigh ScenarioMedium Scenario S OL AR P OWER EU R OP E 2024G lob a l Ma rke t Outlook F or S ola r P owe r 2024-202812G l

73、 o b a l s o l a r ma r k e t1Quar zwer k e fl oati ng s ol ar par k i n cons tr ucti on,3 MW.Hal ter n am See,Ger many.BayWa r.e.Sol ar power domi nated once agai n the newl y added gl obal power gener ati on capaci ty i n 2023,cementi ng i ts s tatus as the fas tes t gr owi ng r enewabl e el ectr

74、i ci ty s our ce for the 19th year i n a r ow.Out of 5 7 6 GW of new r enewabl e(RES)capaci ty added l as t year,s ol ar PV accounted for 7 8%,connecti ng 4 4 7 GW to the gr i d(s ee Fi g.6).Sol ar s s har e of new r enewabl e capaci ty i ncr eas ed cons i der abl y,up 12 per centage poi nts fr om t

75、he 6 6%contr i buted i n 2022 and 22 per centage poi nts mor e than the 5 6%i n 2021.Thi s new r ecor d confi r ms s ol ar s r ol e as an es tabl i s hed and s ti l l r i s i ng l eader of the gl obal ener gy tr ans i ti on,i ns tal l i ng over thr ee ti mes mor e capaci ty than al l other r enewabl

76、 e technol ogi es combi ned.While the ove ra ll tre nd for re ne wa b le c a p a c ity a d d itions ha s b e e n c onsiste ntly up wa rd in re c e nt ye a rs,p ushe d b y the glob a l e ne rgy c risis,p olic y sup p ort,a nd te c hnology a nd c ost a d va nc e me nts,2023 b rought re c ord-b re a ki

77、ng growth p rima rily through d e ve lop me nts in the sola r a nd wind se gme nts.T ota l re ne wa b le c a p a c ity a d d itions a re 214 FIGURE 6 NET R ENEWABL E P OWER GENER AT I NG CAP ACI T Y I NS T AL L ED I N 2023 Hydro:7 GW,1.2%Wind:117 GW,20%Other RE:1 GW,0.2%Biomass:4 GW,0.8%Solar:447 GW

78、,78%576 GWSOURCES:GWEC(2024),I R EN A(2024),S ola rP owe r Europ e.S OL AR P OWER EU R OP E 2024G lob a l Ma rke t Outlook F or S ola r P owe r 2024-202813G W highe r tha n la st ye a r,a strong 59%inc re a se from 362 G W in 2022.N e xt to sola r P V s e xtra ord ina ry surge in 2023,the re ne wa b

79、 le s d rive wa s sup p orte d b y a re ne we d growth p ha se in the wind se c tor,j ump ing b y 50%to a re c ord 117 G W in 2023,up from 78 G W in 2022.T he e xc e p tiona l re ne wa b le s growth is re fle c te d b y re a c hing a nota b le mile stone:2023 ma rks the ye a r re ne wa b le s c limb

80、 e d to 30%,or ne a rly one third,of glob a l e le c tric ity ge ne ra tion.T he se e nc oura ging d e ve lop me nts must b e ke p t in p e rsp e c tive.S ola r p owe r still c ontrib ute s a minor sha re of tota l e le c tric ity d e ma nd,a c c ounting for only 5.5%of glob a l p owe r p rod uc tio

81、n in 2023,b ut inc re a sing from 4.5%in the p re vious ye a r(se e F ig.7).T hough still re la tive ly sma ll,we ob se rve a c le a r growth a c c e le ra tion sola rs sha re inc re a se d b y 1 p e rc e nta ge p oint in 2023,c omp a re d to 0.8 p e rc e nta ge p oints in 2022 a nd 0.5 b e twe e n

82、2020 a nd 2021.Comp a ra tive ly,a ll othe r re ne wa b le sourc e s c olle c tive ly p rovid e d 24.7%of the world s p owe r outp ut in 2023 a nd this re p re se nts a 3%d e c re a se from the 25.4%sha re in 2022.T he re a son for the re ne wa b le s re d uc e d outp ut c a n b e found in c lima te

83、 c ha nge hot te mp e ra ture s a nd d roughts troub le d op e ra tions of hyd rop owe r p la nts,whic h sa w the ir outp ut d e c line.N on-re ne wa b le sourc e s ma inta ine d the ir d omina nt p osition with a 69.8%sha re,going und e r the 70%ma rk for the first time,a s the ir sha re d e c re a

84、 se d b y 0.3 p e rc e nta ge p oints in 2023.T his me a ns growth in sola r a nd wind wa s so strong tha t it c ould c omp e nsa te for the d e c line in hyd rop owe r a nd forc e non-re ne wa b le sourc e s outp ut to a ne w re c ord low.FIGURE 7 S OL AR AND R ENEWABL E P OWER AS A S HAR E OF GL O

85、BAL P OWER 2018-2023 0102030405060708090%SolarOther RENon-RE10020182019202020212022202374.573.471.571.670.169.823.323.925.224.625.424.72.22.73.23.74.55.5SOURCE:Emb e r(2024).S OL AR P OWER EU R OP E 20241 G l o b a l s o l a r ma r k e t/c ontinue dG lob a l Ma rke t Outlook F or S ola r P owe r 202

86、4-202814inc re a se d b y 1.8%.I n a b solute te rms,sola r a d d e d twic e a s muc h ne w e le c tric ity in 2023 a s c oa l.S ola rs e xc e p tiona l suc c e ss ove r the la st d e c a d e,d rive n b y signific a nt c ost re d uc tions,p olic y sup p ort a nd p re ssure s from the e ne rgy c risi

87、s,is now d riving the tra nsition to a ne w c le a n e ne rgy e c onomy.Ac c ord ing to the I nte rna tiona l Ene rgy Age nc y(I EA),c le a n e ne rgy a d d e d a round 320 b illion U S D to the world e c onomy in 2023,re p re se nting 10%of glob a l G DP growth a nd c orre sp ond ing to the G DP of

88、 a c ountry like the Cze c h R e p ub lic.1 L ooking a t the c le a n e ne rgy ma nufa c turing se c tor in p a rtic ula r,sup p ortive fra me works a nd p olic ie s a c ross d iffe re nt re gions ha ve e na b le d signific a nt inve stme nt S ola rs tra c k re c ord d e monstra te s the c onsid e r

89、a b le sc a le of its ma rke t p ote ntia l,a nd a s it ma inta ins strong c ost le a d e rship we c a n e xp e c t it to c ontinue c a p turing a la rge r sha re tha n a ny othe r p owe r ge ne ra tion te c hnology.S p e a rhe a d ing the glob a l tra nsition to re ne wa b le s,sola r ge ne ra te d

90、 1,631 T Wh in 2023,up 23%from the 1,324 T Wh ge ne ra te d in 2022(F ig.8).Wind is the se c ond fa ste st growing te c hnology in te rms of glob a l p owe r ge ne ra tion,with a 9.8%growth ra te,while hyd rop owe r sa w a 2%d e c line.I n the me a ntime,e le c tric ity ge ne ra te d b y c oa l,the

91、most c a rb on-inte nsive sourc e of p owe r ge ne ra tion,gre w b y 1.4%,a nd fossil ga s-p owe re d e le c tric ity gre w slightly b y 0.8%,while othe r fossil ge ne ra tion d e c line d 7.5%,d rive n b y a fa ll in oil ge ne ra tion.N uc le a r e le c tric ity FIGURE 8 EL ECT R I CI T Y GENER AT

92、I ON GR OWT H R AT E F R OM 2021 T O 2022,BY T ECHNOL OGY Other fossilHydroOther renewablesGasCoalNuclearBioenergyWindSolar%0-5-1051015202523%9.8%3.1%1.8%1.4%0.8%0.0%-2.0%-7.5%SOURCE:Emb e r(2024).S OL AR P OWER EU R OP E 20241I EA(2024):Cle a n e ne rgy is b oosting e c onomic growth.G lob a l Ma r

93、ke t Outlook F or S ola r P owe r 2024-202815growth.I n 2023,200 b illion U S D wa s inve ste d in the c le a n e ne rgy ma nufa c turing se c tor glob a lly,40%of whic h(80 b illion U S D)we nt to sola r P V ma nufa c turing,a nd ove r 90%of this wa s inve ste d in China.Also the I nfla tion R e d

94、uc tion Ac t(I R A)in the U S,the G re e n De a l s F it for 55 p a c ka ge a nd the N e t Z e ro I nd ustry Ac t(N Z I A)in the EU,or the P rod uc tion L inke d I nc e ntive (P L I)in I nd ia ha ve e na b le d inve stme nt growth,or will d o so whe n imp le me nte d.2 T he strong inve stme nt a c t

95、ivity in the c le a n te c h se c tor c a n b e und e rstood in the c onte xt of the re c ove ry from the COV I D-19 p a nd e mic,a nd the re sp onse s to the glob a l e ne rgy c risis imme d ia te ly a nd re ga rd ing long-te rm ge ostra te gic c onsid e ra tions whic h p rovid e d a ma j or b oost

96、 to glob a l inve stme nts in re ne wa b le s,EV s,a nd b a tte rie s.Out of a n e stima te d 3 trillion U S D inve ste d in the e ne rgy se c tor in 2023,63%,or 1.9 trillion U S D,we nt to c le a n e ne rgy inve stme nts,a c c ord ing to the I EA.3 S p e c ific a lly the p owe r se c tor shows a n

97、inc re a sing tre nd towa rd s re ne wa b le p owe r inve stme nts,le d b y the sola r se c tor.I n 2023,inve stme nts in sola r P V ha ve surp a sse d a ll othe r ge ne ra tion te c hnologie s c omb ine d,a c c ord ing to the I EA(se e F ig 9).H owe ve r,this le ve l of inve stme nt ne e d s to inc

98、 re a se c onsid e ra b ly to a lign with a 1.5 C tra j e c tory.Annua l inve stme nts in re ne wa b le p owe r ge ne ra tion must re a c h 1.3 trillion U S D b y 2030,a c c ord ing to the G lob a l R e ne wa b le Allia nc e (G R A),the I nte rna tiona l R e ne wa b le Ene rgy Age nc y(I R EN A),a n

99、d COP 28.4 FIGURE 9 GL OBAL ANNU AL I NV ES T MENT I N S OL AR P V AND OT HER GENER AT I ON T ECHNOL OGI ES 2021-20240100200300400500600Billion USD2021202220232024eSolar PVOther251373480503388399413426NOTES:2024e =e stima te d va lue s for 2024.Othe r=e le c tric ity ge ne ra tion from a ll othe r t

100、e c hnologie s inc lud ing c oa l,oil,na tura l ga s,wind,hyd ro a nd nuc le a r.SOURCE:I EA(2024).S OL AR P OWER EU R OP E 20242I EA(2024):Ad va nc ing Cle a n T e c hnology Ma nufa c turing.3I EA(2023):World Ene rgy I nve stme nts 2024.4COP 28,I R EN A a nd G R A(2023):T rip ling re ne wa b le p o

101、we r a nd d oub ling e ne rgy e ffic ie nc y b y2030:Cruc ia l ste p s towa rd s 1.5 C.SOLARGIS MONITOR MONTHLY REPORTSRegularly assess(under)performance of your PV portfolioSee sample reports at: Struggling with ineffective solar measurements?Still guessing why your PV assets might be underperformi

102、ng?You dont need to.Now,you can work with reliable satellite-based model data that offers steady quality all around the world.Explore the bene昀ts of Solargis Monitor Monthly Reports.Identify unexpected underperformanceEasily calculate monthly or yearly performance ratio(PR).Separate technical failur

103、es from solar irradiance and weather variability.Receive vital solar and meteorological eventsWith detailed monthly PDF reports,you can analyze impact of GHI,GTI,and temperature on PV system peformance.In addition,precipitation gives insight on PV module cleanliness.Reduce time spent preparing repor

104、tsEquip your team with reliable data for effective communication with stakeholders or investors about the performance of their PV assets.Assess the impact of long-term climate trendsCompare monthly and annual summaries to long-term averages to see recent changes in the climate.Monthly and yearly dif

105、ference maps help visualize the impact across the entire portfolio.Solargis 2024G lob a l Ma rke t Outlook F or S ola r P owe r 2024-202817U p d a te 2000-2023 In 2023,the wor l d gr i d-connected 4 4 7 GW of new s ol ar capaci ty,far exceedi ng any s ol ar anal ys ts expectati ons and mar k i ng an

106、 extr aor di nar y 8 7%gr owth r ate(s ee Fi g.10).Thi s compar es to pr evi ous year s addi ti on of 239 GW and 4 6%year-on-year gr owth.T his unp re c e d e nte d surge in insta lle d c a p a c ity c a n b e a ttrib ute d to se ve ra l ke y fa c tors.F irstly,a ve ry strong inc re a se in glob a l

107、 P V ma nufa c turing c a p a c itie s gre a tly imp rove d a va ila b ility of sola r mod ule s a nd b a la nc e-of-syste m p rod uc ts a fte r the sup p ly c ha in issue s fa c e d a round the p a nd e mic.Ca p a c ity e xp a nsions,whic h ha ve b e e n a lso p a rt of te c hnology shift towa rd s

108、 T O P Con c e ll te c hnology,ha ve re sulte d in ove rc a p a c itie s tha t re a c he d le ve ls twic e a s la rge a s d e ma nd for c e rta in P V p rod uc ts,trigge ring he fty c omp e tition a mong sta ke hold e rs.P ric e s for sola r syste m c omp one nts d rop p e d sha rp ly,a nd mostly fo

109、r sola r mod ule s b y a round 50%ove r the c ourse of 2023.I n a d d ition to d e ma nd re a c ting e la stic a lly to d rop p ing p ric e s,the e ffe c ts of the 2022 glob a l e ne rgy c risis c ontinue d to trigge r d e ma nd in va rious re gions of the world.G ove rnme nts,ind ivid ua ls,b usine

110、 sse s we re looking to sola r p owe r a s a re lia b le a nd c ost-e ffe c tive solution to high e ne rgy p ric e s,while fa ste r e le c trific a tion of he a t a nd tra nsp ort se c tors wa s inc re a singly on the ra d a r.P e nd ing ord e r p ip e line s from 2021 a nd 2022 we re ofte n only in

111、sta lle d in 2023,whe n p rod uc ts a nd insta lle rs we re a va ila b le a nd more a fford a b le.All this c ome s on top of c lima te p rote c tion a c tivitie s tha t ha ve b e e n c ontinuing a round the world.FIGURE 10 ANNU AL S OL AR P V I NS T AL L ED CAP ACI T Y 2000-20230GWEuropeAMERAPACChi

112、naMEA20002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202318%46%44787%50100150200250300350400450500 S OL AR P OWER EU R OP E 2024T he c omb ina tion of the se fa c tors re sulte d in the highe st ye a r-on-ye a r growth sinc e the b e ginning of the mod e r

113、n sola r a ge.While the sc a le of 2023s growth wa s unp re c e d e nte d ind e e d,it is imp orta nt to highlight tha t most of this glob a l ma rke t e xp a nsion wa s d rive n b y China.T he world s la rge st sola r ma rke t for ye a rs,a nd a lso in 2022 with 95 G W a nnua lly insta lle d,China

114、b roke a ny p re vious re c ord b y a d d ing a n inc re d ib le 253 G W of ne w sola r P V c a p a c ity in 2023,ma rking a 167%ye a r-on-ye a r growth ra te.Me a nwhile,the re st of the world insta lle d only 194 G W of ne w sola r P V,re fle c ting a 34%inc re a se from the 145 G W d e p loye d i

115、n 2022(F ig.11).I n our p re vious G MO e d ition,p ub lishe d in J une 2023,we p roj e c te d a glob a l se c tor growth of 341 G W und e r our Me d ium S c e na rio,a ntic ip a ting a 42%ye a r-on-ye a r ma rke t inc re a se,one of the highe st growth e xp e c ta tions a mong a na lysts a t the ti

116、me.While the e stima te s we re a lmost right for the “re st of the world”,whic h insta lle d j ust 3%le ss tha n our 200 G W fore c a st,China fa r e xc e e d e d e xp e c ta tions,d e p loying 80%more sola r c a p a c ity tha n our 141 G W fore c a st,a nd e ve n 111%a b ove the 120 G W the Chine

117、se P V I nd ustry Assoc ia tion(CP I A)fore c a ste d in its op timistic sc e na rio la st ye a r.I n 2023,China insta lle d 6%more sola r P V c a p a c ity tha n the e ntire world d e p loye d in 2022.I n othe r word s,without China s strong sola r inve stme nts in d e p loyme nt,the sola r se c to

118、rs growth would ha ve b e e n muc h more mod e st.G lob a l Ma rke t Outlook F or S ola r P owe r 2024-202818FIGURE 11 ANNU AL S OL AR GR OWT H CHI NA V S.R ES T OF WOR L D 2021-2023050100150200250300GWChinaRest of the world202120212022202220232023167%19435%253 S OL AR P OWER EU R OP E 20241 G l o b

119、 a l s o l a r ma r k e t-U p d a te 2000-2023/c ontinue dG lob a l Ma rke t Outlook F or S ola r P owe r 2024-202819T o p 10 gl o b a l s o l a r ma r k e ts T he re a re only fe w c ha nge s in the c omp osition of the glob a l top 10 ma rke ts.While 7 c ountrie s ha ve move d up or d own the ra n

120、ks,the only ne w e ntra nt is I ta ly,re p la c ing a nothe r Europ e a n c ountry,P ola nd.Aga in,its China tha t le a ve s its ma rk within the top 10:the la rge st glob a l ma rke t insta lle d more tha n twic e the c a p a c ity of a ll the othe r nine c omb ine d (se e F ig.12).P la ying in a d

121、 iffe re nt le a gue,a lso d ue to its she e r size,China ha s furthe r c e me nte d its p osition a s the glob a l N o.1 sola r ma rke t(se e F ig.13).I t insta lle d a lmost e ight time s more P V c a p a c ity tha n the se c ond la rge st ma rke t,a nd ove r ha lf of the world s c a p a c ity a d

122、 d itions.Ove r the p a st thre e ye a rs,the Chine se ma rke t e xp e rie nc e d ste lla r growth,rising from 55 G W in 2021 to 95 G W in 2022(+72%),a nd 253 G W in 2023(+167%).L a st ye a r,a round 62 G W out of the 253 G W ne w c a p a c ity wa s grid-c onne c te d in De c e mb e r a lone.Contra

123、ry to 2021 a nd 2022,the utility-sc a le se c tor le ft the rooftop se gme nt b e hind a ga in,following the highe r imp a c t of re d uc e d p rod uc t p ric e s in this se gme nt.China d e p loye d 146 G W of utility-sc a le p roj e c ts,re p re se nting 58%of ne w insta lla tions in 2023,while ro

124、oftop s sola r a mounte d to 107 G W,e qua l to 42%of the tota l.T he c umula tive sola r P V c a p a c ity of China j ump e d to 656 G W b y e nd of 2023,a fte r ha ving c rosse d the 400 G W ma rk in 2022,a nd the 300 G W ma rk in 2021.F or more d e ta ils on China,se e the foc us c ha p te r a t

125、p.61 a nd CP I As ma rke t vie w a t p.84.T he Uni ted States e xp e rie nc e d its b e st ye a r for sola r P V so fa r,insta lling 32.4 G W in 2023,a signific a nt 48%b oost from 2022.T his j ump ma rks a re turn to the growth p a th,whic h wa s inte rrup te d in 2022 d ue to tra d e p rote c tion

126、 le gisla tion imp a c ts tha t limite d imp orts.T he d e la ys c a use d b y the se tra d e a c tions we re p a rtly re solve d in 2023,a llowing for the re a lisa tion of p ostp one d p roj e c ts.T he ind ustry a lso FIGURE 12 T OP 10 S OL AR P V MAR K ET S 2023ChinaUnited States9%Brazil4%German

127、y 4%India 3%Italy 1%Australia 1%Netherlands,1%Japan2%Spain 2%71%of the 10 largest solar marketsNote:P e rc e nta ge ind ic a te s the sha re of a ggre ga te top 10 insta lle d c a p a c ity.S OL AR P OWER EU R OP E 2024b e ne fite d from the first full ye a r of the I R A,whic h ha s la rge ly imp r

128、ove d the e c onomic a ttra c tive ne ss of ma nufa c turing p roj e c ts b ut a lso sola r d e p loyme nt through a n e xte nsion of the inve stme nt ta x c re d it(I T C).I n Ca lifornia,the U S sta te with the la rge st op e ra ting P V c a p a c ity,ne w ne t-me te ring rule s(N EM 3.0),ta king

129、e ffe c t in Ap ril 2023,le d to a surge in re sid e ntia l insta lla tions in the first qua rte r,a fte r whic h d e ma nd d rop p e d d ra stic a lly.S till,the re sid e ntia l se gme nt gre w b y 13%ye a r-on-ye a r,a nd a ll ne w rooftop insta lla tions c omb ine d re a c he d 9.8 G W in 2023,a

130、21%inc re a se from 8.1 G W in 2022,while utility-sc a le insta lla tions soa re d to 22.6 G W,up 64%from 13.8 G W in 2022.Br azi l s sola r P V se c tor gre w signific a ntly in 2023 a nd insta lle d 15.4 G W,up 41%from 10.9 G W in 2022.Afte r e nte ring the top 10 for the first time on the 7th p o

131、sition in 2021,the c ountry p rogre sse d to ra nk 4 one ye a r la te r,a nd now b e longs to the thre e la rge st sola r ma rke ts in the world.T his strong growth wa s re c ord e d d e sp ite ma c roe c onomic c ha lle nge s,grid-c onne c tion issue s,a nd c ha nge s in the c ountrys a ttra c tive

132、 ne t-me te ring la w for syste ms up to 5 MW,whic h ha ve b e e n the fund a me nt of Bra zils imp re ssive sola r b oom.As of J a nua ry 2023,P V syste m op e ra tors must p a y fe e s for grid usa ge whe n fe e d ing in sola r p owe r.S till,d istrib ute d sola r a d d e d 10.3 G W,ne a rly the s

133、a me le ve l a s the ye a r b e fore.On the othe r ha nd,the c e ntra lise d sola r P V se gme nt a ugme nte d b y ne a rly 50%to 4.1 G W,mostly from c orp ora te P owe r P urc ha se Agre e me nts(P P As)in the unre gula te d ma rke t tha t offe rs more luc ra tive op p ortunitie s tha n the tra d i

134、tiona l gove rnme nt a uc tions.Bra zils tota l insta lle d sola r P V c a p a c ity surp a sse d 39.4 G W b y the e nd of 2023.1 G l o b a l s o l a r ma r k e t-U p d a te 2000-2023/c ontinue dG lob a l Ma rke t Outlook F or S ola r P owe r 2024-202820FIGURE 13 T OP 10 S OL AR P V MAR K ET S 2022-

135、2023020406080100300200150250GW20232022ChinaUnited StatesNetherlandsJapanSpainIndiaAustraliaBrazilItalyGermany25332.415.415.012.58.96.25.25.14.921.910.97.417.48.46.52.54.04.194.7 S OL AR P OWER EU R OP E 2024Ger many ga ine d two p ositions,la nd ing on the 4th sp ot of the world s la rge st sola r m

136、a rke ts a fte r d oub ling its a nnua l insta lle d c a p a c ity to 15 G W in 2023,from 7.4 G W in 2022.By the e nd of August 2023,the c ountry ha d a lre a d y a d d e d 9 G W of sola r c a p a c ity,me e ting the gove rnme nts ta rge t for the e ntire ye a r.G e rma nys a c hie ve me nt ma rks t

137、he first time a Europ e a n c ountry ha s surp a sse d the 10 G W ma rk in a nnua l insta lla tions,b re a king the 12-ye a r re c ord p re viously he ld b y I ta ly,whic h grid-c onne c te d 9.3 G W in 2011.T he re vision of the R e ne wa b le Ene rgy S ourc e s Ac t(EEG)in J uly 2022,whic h fully

138、took e ffe c t a t the b e ginning of 2023,ha s b e e n instrume nta l for G e rma ny to ge t on the roofs a nd ground its e xte nsive p roj e c t p ip e line tha t a rose from the 2022 e ne rgy p ric e c risis.K e y imp rove me nts inc lud e d inc re a se d fe e d-in ta riffs(F I T s)for ne w rooft

139、op syste ms,a ha lt to monthly re d uc tions in fe e d-in ra te s for ne w syste ms until the e nd of 2024,a nd a c ut of the na tiona l sa le s ta x(V AT)on P V syste ms a s of J a nua ry 2023.T he c urre nt G e rma n gove rnme nt ha s a c knowle d ge d the c ritic a l role of sola r e ne rgy,a imi

140、ng for re ne wa b le s to c omp rise 80%of e le c tric ity ge ne ra tion b y 2030 a nd 100%b y 2035,with a sp e c ific sola r P V c a p a c ity ta rge t of 215 G W b y 2030.Afte r strong growth in 2021 a nd 2022,it se e me d Indi as sola r P V se c tor wa s b a c k on a n up wa rd tra j e c tory.But

141、 the se c tor sa w signific a nt c ha nge s a nd c ha lle nge s re sulting in a 28%d e c line in ne w insta lla tions la st ye a r,with 12.5 G W a d d e d from J a nua ry to De c e mb e r 2023,c omp a re d to 17.4 G W in 2022.T his d ownturn c osts the c ountry two ra nks,fa lling to 5th p la c e in

142、 2023.T he ma rke t d e c line is a ttrib ute d to fe we r ne w te nd e rs issue d b e twe e n 2020 a nd 2022,whic h le d to a re d uc e d p ip e line of p roj e c ts to b e b uilt in 2023.I n a d d ition,c ha nge s in p olic y a nd re gula tory fra me works,suc h a s re visions of ta riffs a nd d u

143、tie s on imp orte d sola r mod ule s,c re a te d unc e rta inty We connect people,products and digital technology.130Our systems are installed in over 130 countries3232 GW of installed capacity worldwide2020 years of solarexperiencek2- Installation on all pitched and flat roofs Easier design and doc

144、umentation with digital toolsConnecting Strengththa t a ffe c te d p la nning a nd fina nc ia l via b ility of p roj e c ts,re sulting in d e la ys a nd e xte nsion of p roj e c t time line s.Also,the gove rnme nts p ush for inc re a se d use of d ome stic a lly ma d e sola r c omp one nts d id not

145、he lp a s ve ry limite d loc a l p rod uc tion c ould not me e t d e ve lop e rs ne e d s.T he issue s a re like ly te mp ora ry,a s c ha lle nge s a re b e ing a d d re sse d,a nd ove r 50 G W of re ne wa b le te nd e re d c a p a c ity wa s issue d in 2023.Within the top 5 ma rke ts,the sp re a d

146、b e twe e n China a nd its p e e rs ha s grown c onsid e ra b ly(se e F ig.14).China,whic h ha s ta ke n a n outsta nd ing role a lre a d y a s of 2016,p la ys in a n e ntire ly d iffe re nt le a gue.I n 2023,the#1 ma rke t wa s e ight time s la rge r tha n the#2,U S A,a nd 20 time s la rge r tha n

147、the#5,I nd ia.T ha ts signific a ntly more tha n la st ye a r,whe n the ma rke t size d iffe re nc e ha d a fa c tor of four a nd 11,re sp e c tive ly.Spai n,ra nking a s the se c ond la rge st Europ e a n ma rke t,se c ure d the 6th p osition glob a lly in ne wly insta lle d c a p a c ity,re a c hi

148、ng 8.9 G W.T his re p re se nts a mod e st 5%ye a r-on-ye a r growth,c ontra sting sha rp ly with the 76%surge shown in 2022.T he c ountry sa w a 53%d e c line in the re sid e ntia l se gme nt c omp a re d to the re c ord p e rforma nc e in 2022,p a rtia lly a ttrib ute d to d e la ye d sub sid y p

149、a yme nts ta rnishing p ub lic p e rc e p tion on rooftop P V.S imila rly,the c omme rc ia l a nd ind ustria l(C&I)se gme nt e xp e rie nc e d a d ownwa rd tre nd,d e c lining b y 22%,d e sp ite fa lling mod ule p ric e s.O n the c ontra ry,ground-mounte d P V c onfirme d its c e ntra l role in S p

150、a in s sola r la nd sc a p e.T he utility-sola r se gme nt wa s the only one to grow in 2023,with a nota b le up tic k of 25%.S p a nish sola r p a rks a re ofte n d e ve lop e d through P P As,und e rsc oring the c ountrys p osition a s a glob a l 1 G l o b a l s o l a r ma r k e t-U p d a te 2000-

151、2023/c ontinue dG lob a l Ma rke t Outlook F or S ola r P owe r 2024-202822FIGURE 14 T OP 5 S OL AR P V MAR K ET S 2010-2023 050100150200250300GW2010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202325332151513ChinaUnited StatesIndiaBrazilGermany S OL AR P OWER EU R OP E 2024G lob a l Ma rke t Out

152、look F or S ola r P owe r 2024-202823G lob a l Ma rke t Outlook F or S ola r P owe r 2021-2025le a d e r in sub sid y-fre e sola r e ne rgy.With a huge P V p roj e c t p ip e line e xisting,growth c ould ha ve b e e n muc h highe r if it we re not for grid c onne c tion issue s,a long with high inte

153、 re st ra te s,d e c lining whole sa le e le c tric ity p ric e s a nd d e c re a sing sola r c a p ture ra te s tha t ha ve ma d e suc c e ssful sola r p a rk d e ve lop me nts muc h ha rd e r in S p a in tha n in the p a st.Japan ma inta ine d its 7th p osition,d e sp ite a ma rgina l ma rke t d e

154、 c line.T he c ountry insta lle d 6.2 G W of sola r c a p a c ity in 2023,d own 4%from 6.5 G W in 2022.S inc e its p e a k ye a r in 2015,whe n it insta lle d 10.8 G W,J a p a n ha s b e e n on a d ownwa rd tre nd in sola r insta lla tions.T he d isc ontinua tion of F I T s for la rge-sc a le syste

155、ms in 2022 ma rke d a tra nsition p e riod,d uring whic h ne w b usine ss mod e ls re lia nt on P P As a nd third-p a rty owne rship ha ve sta rte d to ga in tra c tion.Antic ip a te d growth in the re sid e ntia l a nd C&I se gme nts is e xp e c te d to re ve rse this tre nd a nd stimula te insta l

156、la tions in the ne a r future.Ad d itiona lly,the c ountry c ond uc te d four round s of a uc tions for utility-sc a le p roj e c ts throughout 2023,a lloc a ting a tota l c a p a c ity of 300 MW.Ital y e me rge d a s one of the fa ste st-growing sola r ma rke ts in the EU in 2023,insta lling 5.2 G

157、W.T his ma rks a 111%inc re a se from the 2.5 G W insta lle d in 2022,whe n the c ountry re-e nte re d the giga wa tt sc a le for the first time sinc e 2013.As a re sult,I ta ly re j oine d the glob a l top 10 on the 8th p osition.T he e ne rgy c risis a nd the e nd of the gove rnme nts S up e rb on

158、us ta x inc e ntive sc he me p rop e lle d re sid e ntia l sola r,re sulting in a nota b le 79%growth in this se gme nt.Afte r c ond itions we re ma d e muc h le ss a ttra c tive for the S up e rb onus,I ta ly s sola r e xp a nsion ha s b e e n p rima rily ste e re d b y the C&I se gme nt,c ontrib u

159、ting a p p roxima te ly 46%of the insta lle d c a p a c ity in 2023.More ove r,sola r fa rms e xc e e d ing 1 MW e xp e rie nc e d a p e a k month in De c e mb e r 2023,with insta lla tions re a c hing 362 MW,signific a ntly surp a ssing the a ve ra ge monthly insta lla tion ra te of 72 MW from J a

160、nua ry to N ove mb e r.Aus tr al i a ha s c limb e d one sp ot to 9th p la c e a fte r insta lling 5.1 G W in 2023,a 28%inc re a se tha t wa s p rima rily a ttrib ute d to the strong p e rforma nc e of the rooftop se gme nt.Although it fa lls short of the c ountry s b e st p e rforma nc e of 5.9 G W

161、 a d d e d in 2021,d e ma nd for rooftop syste ms ha s re ma ine d b a sic a lly 100 MW,Guangdong Ener gy,Chi na.J inko S ola rste a d y sinc e 2022.U tility-sc a le p roj e c ts a c c ounte d for 1.9 G W,a nota b le imp rove me nt from 1.2 G W in 2022.As of De c e mb e r 2023,out of 56 re ne wa b l

162、e e ne rgy p roj e c ts und e r c onstruc tion,38 we re la rge-sc a le sola r p roj e c ts,a d e c re a se from 48 a t the sa me p oint in 2022.But the a mount of la rge-sc a le p roj e c ts c ommissione d is e xp e c te d to inc re a se tha nks to the Ca p a c ity I nve stme nt S c he me,whic h p r

163、ovid e s a na tiona l fra me work to foste r ne w inve stme nts in re ne wa b le c a p a c ity.The Nether l ands switc he d ra nks with Austra lia,d rop p ing from 9th to 10th p la c e d e sp ite 20%ma rke t growth to 4.9 G W.A rob ust rooftop ma rke t for ye a rs,the N e the rla nd s sola r se c to

164、r he a vily re lie d on a ne t-me te ring p olic y for the re sid e ntia l se c tor a nd a n a uc tion p rogra mme for la rge r rooftop a nd ground-mounte d syste ms.I n 2023,the re sid e ntia l rooftop ma rke t surge d b y 39%to 2.6 G W,d rive n b y re c ord le ve ls in re sp onse to the p re vious

165、 ye a r s e ne rgy c risis a nd unc e rta inty a b out the future of the ne t-me te ring sc he me.Although b oth the C&I a nd ground-mounte d sola r se c tors ga ine d sha re s,the y a re inc re a singly e nc ounte ring grid c onge stion issue s.Ad d itiona lly,la rge sola r p a rks a re fa c ing se

166、 ve re sp a c e c onstra ints,a nd ha ve b e e n le a d ing the loc a l ind ustry to e xp lore multifunc tiona l P V a p p lic a tions suc h a s Agri-P V,floa ting sola r,a nd sola r c a rp orts to a d d re ss the se c ha lle nge s.I n 2023,more tha n e ve r,the ma rke t wa s d omina te d b y China,

167、whic h a lone wa s re sp onsib le for 57%of the world s tota l a d d itions,up 17 p e rc e nta ge p oints from the 40%it p rovid e d in 2022(se e F ig.15).As a c onse que nc e of China s re c ord p e rforma nc e,a ll the othe r top 10 ma rke ts lost glob a l ma rke t sha re.T he sha re insta lle d i

168、n a ll othe r c ountrie s a lso d e c re a se d,b y 5 p e rc e nta ge p oints to 20%.A p ositive d e ve lop me nt is a furthe r inc re a sing numb e r of c ountrie s re a c hing a nnua l G W ma rke t size:in 2023,31 c ountrie s c rosse d the thre shold,c omp a re d to 28 the ye a r b e fore.De ta il

169、s on the se ma rke ts c a n b e found in Cha p te r 4,whe re na tiona l ind ustry a ssoc ia tions a c tive in the sola r se c tor p rovid e a na lysis on the ir home ma rke ts(se e p.81).1 G l o b a l s o l a r ma r k e t-U p d a te 2000-2023/c ontinue dG lob a l Ma rke t Outlook F or S ola r P owe

170、r 2024-202824FIGURE 15 T OP 10 COUNT R I ES S OL AR S HAR E 2023Italy:1%Japan:1%Spain:2%India:3%Germany:3%United States:7%Netherlands:1%Australia:1%Rest of World:20%Brazil:4%China:57%447 GW S OL AR P OWER EU R OP E 2024G lob a l Ma rke t Outlook F or S ola r P owe r 2024-202825R e gi o na l U p d a

171、te I n 2023,no re gion othe r tha n Asia-P a c ific (inc l.China)ma na ge d to inc re a se its ma rke t sha re.I f China is looke d a t se p a ra te ly,a ll othe r re gions lost ma rke t sha re s,showing how muc h the c ountry d omina te s the sola r world.China a c c ounte d for more tha n ha lf of

172、 2023 a nnua l insta lla tions,a ma ssive 57%of the glob a l sha re unse e n b e fore,a nd up from 40%in 2022 a nd 33%in 2021.A simila r though slightly lowe r le ve l of d omina nc e ha s b e e n se e n only onc e b e fore,in 2017,whe n China surp risingly insta lle d 54 G W e qua l to 52%of the gl

173、ob a l ma rke t sha re.Afte rwa rd s,it sta rte d a ma rke t tra nsition p roj e c t a wa y from F I T s to a uc tions a nd othe r p olic y fra me works,whic h re sulte d in ne w insta lla tions fa lling sha rp ly for two ye a rs a nd re c ove re d to ne w re c ord le ve ls only in 2021.H owe ve r,i

174、n 2017,the glob a l sola r ma rke t wa s j ust ove r 100 G W,now its more tha n four time s la rge r,ye t China hold s a n e ve n gre a te r sha re tha n e ve r b e fore.I n Eur ope,the sola r ma rke t c ontinue d its strong p e rforma nc e,inc re a sing a nnua l insta lle d c a p a c itie s sub sta

175、 ntia lly c omp a re d to the a lre a d y e xc e p tiona l growth ye a rs a round the p a nd e mic.Afte r growth ra te s of 34%in 2021 a nd 45%in 2022,the re gion e xp e rie nc e d a 51%ye a r-on-ye a r ma rke t b oost to 70.1 G W in 2023,whic h me a nt a 16%c ontrib ution to the glob a l ma rke t.A

176、lthough it lost 3 p e rc e nta ge p oints in glob a l ma rke t sha re,Europ e ha s ove rta ke n Asia-P a c ific e xc l.China a nd the Ame ric a s,e nd ing 2023 a s the se c ond la rge st sola r re gion,one p la c e up from the third ra nk in 2022,a nd the fourth p osition in 2021.Within Europ e,G e

177、rma ny ha s ta ke n ove r the le a d a ga in,a fte r S p a in wa s not a b le to re p lic a te its strong growth from 2022.Be sid e s e sta b lishe d sola r ma rke ts I ta ly(5.2 G W),the N e the rla nd s(4.9 G W),P ola nd (4.6 G W)a nd F ra nc e (3.2 G W),se ve ra l othe r Europ e a n c ountrie s h

178、a ve p a sse d the a nnua l G W-ma rke t thre shold.T his inc lud e s FIGURE 16 ANNU AL S OL AR P V I NS T AL L ED CAP ACI T Y S HAR ES 2017-20230102030405060708090%EuropeAMERAPACChinaMEA10020192020202120222023201820171.7%3.0%5.7%2.4%2.8%3.5%3.3%52%43%26%35%33%40%57%23%27%31%27%24%20%11%13%16%18%19%

179、20%17%13%9%11%20%17%19%19%16%S OL AR P OWER EU R OP E 2024T rkiye (2.7 G W)a nd Austria (2.7 G W),whic h b oth e xc e e d e d the 2 G W ma rk for the first time with imp re ssive growth ra te s of 69%a nd 166%re sp e c tive ly.T rkiye wa s the la rge st Europ e a n non-EU ma rke t,while the U nite d

180、 K ingd om a nd S witze rla nd a lso c ontinue d the ir up wa rd tre nd,insta lling 1.8 G W a nd 1.5 G W re sp e c tive ly.T he Europ e a n U nion re giste re d 50%growth la st ye a r,with 26 out of 27 Me mb e r S ta te s insta lling more sola r tha n the ye a r b e fore;the only e xc e p tion wa s

181、De nma rk.Most of the Europ e a n c ontine nts sola r d e p loyme nt la st ye a r took p la c e in the EU whe re 60.9 G W wa s d e p loye d;tha ts e qua l to 87%ma rke t sha re,a nd 0.5 p e rc e nta ge p oint le ss tha n the ye a r b e fore.T he 13%sha re of non-EU c ountrie s in 2023 is b a se d on

182、 9.3 G W of ne w P V c a p a c ity.T he Amer i cas c limb e d one sp ot in the re giona l ra nkings to third p la c e,c a p turing 13%of the glob a l ma rke t sha re.T he re gion insta lle d 58.8 G W in 2023,a 43%inc re a se from 41.0 G W a d d e d in 2022.But the c ontine nt re ma ins he a vily d e

183、 p e nd e nt on a fe w ke y ma rke ts,with the U nite d S ta te s le a d ing the sola r wa y.I n 2023,the U nite d S ta te s inc re a se d its re giona l d omina nc e,a c c ounting for 55%of the c ontine nts ne w insta lla tions,up b y 2 p e rc e nta ge p oints from 2022.T he only othe r ma rke t wi

184、th a two-d igit GW ma rke t is Bra zil,whose sha re d e c re a se d b y 1 p e rc e nta ge p oint to 26%.T he Ame ric a s third ra nk is sha re d b y Chile a nd Me xic o.Both ma rke ts a d d e d 1.6 G W b ut fa c e d op p osite d e ve lop me nts la st ye a r.U nlike Chile,whe re sola r a c tivitie s

185、slightly c ontra c te d from 1.8 G W to 1.7 G W d ue to c onge stion p rob le ms in the tra nsmission line s,Me xic o fa c e d 40%d e ma nd growth d e sp ite gove rnme nt p olic ie s tha t ha ve hind e re d inve stme nts in re ne wa b le s while foc using on fossil fue ls.Me xic os sola r ma rke t i

186、s still re igne d b y utility-sc a le sola r,b ut the rooftop se gme nt is ge tting c lose now a t a 44%sha re,a fte r it logge d a nothe r re c ord in 2023.T oge the r,the U S,Bra zil,Chile a nd Me xic o a c c ounte d for 86%of the Ame ric a s 2023 sola r a d d itions,simila r to the 87%sha re the

187、four owne d in 2022.I f Europ e a nd the Ame ric a s b oth inc re a se d b y one p la c e in the ra nking,it is p a rtly d ue to the signific a nt ma rke t sha re d e c line of the As i a-Paci fi c r egi on(excl.Chi na).I n 2023,the re gions sha re d rop p e d from 20%in 2022 to 11%in 2023,the la rg

188、e st d e c re a se a mong a ll re gions,whic h me a nt a p lunge from the se c ond to the fourth p osition.L ittle growth of 2%to 50.2 G W in 2023,from 48.9 G W in 2022 wa s not e nough to ke e p up with the othe r re gions.Only Austra lia a nd T a iwa n showe d nota b le growth ra te s the one b y

189、28%to 5.1 G W,the othe r b y 32%to 2.7 G W;b ut e ve n the se we re signific a ntly lowe r tha n the glob a l a ve ra ge of 84%.All othe r ma j or Asia n sola r na tions d isa p p ointe d.I nd ia s a nnua l insta lla tions e ve n p lumme te d b y 28%to 12.5 G W in 2023,from 17.4 G W the ye a r b e f

190、ore.T his 1 G l o b a l s o l a r ma r k e t-U p d a te 2000-2023/c ontinue d4 7 7 k W,Matos i nhos,Por tugal.Gre e nvoltG lob a l Ma rke t Outlook F or S ola r P owe r 2024-202826G lob a l Ma rke t Outlook F or S ola r P owe r 2024-202827d ownturn is a ttrib ute d to a la c k of utility-sc a le d e

191、 ve lop me nt d ue to p roj e c t d e la ys,a uc tioning shorta ge s,re gula tory hurd le s,a nd sp e c ula tive b e ha viour on d e c lining mod ule p ric e s.Also J a p a ns ma rke t slowe d b y 4%to 6.2 G W.Onc e a sola r p ione e r,the J a p a ne se ma rke t ha s b e e n sta gna ting for se ve r

192、a l ye a rs a fte r p olic y ma ke rs sla she d fe e d-in ta riffs b ut fa ile d to p rovid e a fra me work tha t e na b le s growth like in othe r forme r F I T ma rke ts.Although S outh K ore a is home to one of the fe w suc c e ssful non-Chine se c e ll/mod ule ma ke rs,the c urre nt p olitic a l

193、 e lite se e ms to ha ve a b a nd one d a ny sola r a mb itions;p olitic a l sup p ort ha s shifte d from re ne wa b le e ne rgy towa rd s nuc le a r.At 2.9 G W,the ma rke t wa s only 64%of the 4.7 G W tha t wa s insta lle d in 2020.N one of the othe r high-p ote ntia l sola r ma rke ts in tha t re

194、gion,like T ha ila nd,Ma la ysia,P hilip p ine s,a nd I nd one sia,re a c he d the G W-le ve l in 2023.T he Mi ddl e Eas t and Afr i ca(MEA)re gion e xp e rie nc e d signific a nt sola r growth of 78%in 2023,a d d ing 14.8 G W.T his b roke the p re vious re c ord se t in 2022,whe n 8.3 G W of c a p

195、a c ity wa s insta lle d.T hre e MEA c ountrie s re a c he d the G W-le ve l in 2023,c omp a re d to two in 2022.S outh Afric a ma inta ine d its top p osition a fte r insta lling 3.2 G W,whic h me a nt a 142%growth ra te.R e gula tory re forms in 2022 ha ve e na b le d unma tc he d growth in the p

196、riva te utility-sc a le sola r se gme nt,while e ne rgy se c urity issue s ha ve d rive n d e ma nd for re sid e ntia l sola r P V a nd b a tte ry stora ge syste ms.Cha ra c te rise d ma inly b y a fe w ve ry la rge P V p roj e c ts,the U nite d Ara b Emira te s(U AE)e nte re d G W te rritory for th

197、e first time sinc e 2019.I t insta lle d 3.1 G W,ma inly b a se d on the fina lisa tion of the 2 G W Al Dha fra S ola r P owe r P roj e c t ne a r Ab u Dha b i.T he third G W-ma rke t in MEA wa s S a ud i Ara b ia,whic h p a sse d tha t thre shold for the first time e ve r,a fte r 1.9 G W wa s grid-

198、c onne c te d,la rge ly from the initia l p ha se of the 1.5 G W S ud a ir S ola r P roj e c t in S a ud i Ara b ia.I sra e l re ma ine d the fourth-la rge st sola r na tion in the re gion,e ve n though d e p loyme nt d e c re a se d b y 20%to 824 MW,d own from 1 G W in 2022.Ove ra ll,MEAs glob a l

199、ma rke t sha re slightly fe ll to 3.3%in 2023,from 3.5%in 2022.In s ummar y,2023 was a s tel l ar year for s ol ar ener gy,wi th a mas s i ve 8 7%mar k et gr owth that no s ol ar anal ys t pr edi cted one year ago.A glob a l growth ra te a t tha t sc a le wa s ob se rve d the la st time in 2010 the

200、n a t 107%,b ut the ma rke t wa s only 17 G W la rge a nd 26 time s sma lle r tha n tod a y.T wo p rima ry fa c tors c ontrib ute d to this surge in insta lla tions.T he sha rp inc re a se in ma nufa c turing c a p a c itie s in China ha s re a c he d unp re c e d e nte d le ve ls,e xc e e d ing the

201、 T W-le ve l from wa fe r to mod ule s,a nd sup p lying p le nty of low-c ost a nd a ttra c tive ly p ric e d p rod uc t to the re st of the world.T his signific a ntly imp a c te d mod ule p ric e s,whic h d rop p e d b y ha lf,ma king sola r e ne rgy more a fford a b le tha n e ve r.S e c ond,the

202、linge ring e ffe c ts of the e ne rgy c risis d rove ord e rs in 2021 a nd 2022 to unma tc he d le ve ls,with p roj e c t re a lisa tions c ontinuing in 2023.While the ma nufa c turing inc re a se a nd the ind uc e d p ric e e ffe c ts will like ly ke e p influe nc ing the ma rke t in 2024,the imme

203、d ia te imp a c t of the e ne rgy p ric e c risis on insta lla tion le ve ls is d iminishing.H owe ve r,the c risis und e nia b ly le ft a ma rk a mongst house hold s,b usine sse s,a nd p olic yma ke rs,a nd highlighte d the ne e d for e ne rgy se c urity a nd a fa ste r d e ve lop me nt of re ne wa

204、 b le s.N one the le ss,the unp re c e d e nte d ma rke t growth should not hid e its ske wne ss.T he glob a l sola r P V ma rke t ha s ne ve r b e e n a s d e p e nd e nt on a single c ountry a s it wa s in 2023.More tha n e ve ry se c ond sola r mod ule wa s insta lle d in China.T he c ountrys a n

205、nua l ma rke t gre w 72%in 2022 a nd a sta gge ring 167%in 2023,while the re st of the world e xp e rie nc e d a 32%growth in b oth ye a rs.At the sa me time,a b out e ight P V mod ule s out of te n a re ma nufa c ture d in China,whic h re ta ins the strong ma j ority of glob a l P V p rod uc tion c

206、 a p a c itie s.As the e ne rgy c risis d ra ma tic a lly highlighte d,re lying on a single sup p ly sourc e is not susta ina b le.A ma rke t c ontra c tion in China would ine vita b ly le a d to a glob a l ma rke t c ontra c tion unle ss othe r re gions a c c e le ra te the ir d e p loyme nt of re

207、ne wa b le e ne rgy.I n the sa me ve in,a d ownturn in China s P V ma nufa c turing a c tivitie s or glob a l e xp ort a c c e ssib ility would slow d own the e ne rgy tra nsition of othe r c ountrie s.While 2023 ma rke d a historic ye a r for sola r P V growth,the future of the ma rke t hinge s on

208、c ontinue d glob a l e fforts to d ive rsify ma nufa c turing c a p a c itie s a nd a c c e le ra te re ne wa b le e ne rgy d e p loyme nt outsid e China.T he le ssons le a rne d from the re c e nt e ne rgy c risis e mp ha sise the imp orta nc e of a d ive rsifie d e ne rgy sup p ly.S imila rly,sup

209、p ly c ha in c onstra ints following the p a nd e mic a nd e ne rgy c risis unve ile d vulne ra b ilitie s in highly c onc e ntra te d ma nufa c turing.T he ye a r 2023 wa s the hotte st on re c ord,the world c a n simp ly not a fford a ny d isrup tion in re ne wa b le e ne rgy sup p ly c ha in,a s

210、a ny slowd own in d e p loyme nt of re ne wa b le e ne rgy is a slowd own in our glob a l fight a ga inst c lima te c ha nge.C umul a ti v e s o l a r i ns ta l l a ti o ns unti l 2023 T he glob a l c umula tive insta lle d c a p a c ity of sola r P V syste ms re a c he d 1,624 G W b y the e nd of 2

211、023,up 38%from 1,177 G W a ye a r e a rlie r,whe n the sola r fle e t re c ord e d 26%growth(F ig.17).G lob a l on-grid P V c a p a c ity is 38 time s la rge r tha n the 41.4 G W op e ra ting a t the e nd of 2010.I mp orta nt insta lla tion mile stone s of the world s sola r e volution inc lud e:re

212、a c hing the first G W b e fore 2000,surp a ssing the 10 G W le ve l in 2008 a nd c limb ing up to 100 G W four ye a rs la te r in 2012.I t took a nothe r six ye a rs until 2018 to e xc e e d 500 G W,a nd j ust four more ye a rs for the ma rke t to d oub le to the T W le ve l in 2022.I n 2023,sola r

213、 P V a lso b e c a me the re ne wa b le e ne rgy te c hnology with the la rge st c a p a c ity d e p loye d world wid e,surp a ssing hyd rop owe r.1 G l o b a l s o l a r ma r k e t-U p d a te 2000-2023/c ontinue dG lob a l Ma rke t Outlook F or S ola r P owe r 2024-202828FIGURE 17 T OT AL S OL AR P

214、 V I NS T AL L ED CAP ACI T Y 2000-20230GWEuropeAMERAPACChinaMEA20002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202321%26%1,62438%2004006008001,0001,2001,4001,6001,800 S OL AR P OWER EU R OP E 2024G lob a l Ma rke t Outlook F or S ola r P owe r 2024-202829

215、I n the la st fe w ye a rs,the re gions c umula tive ma rke t sha re s re ma ine d re la tive ly sta b le,a s the tota l insta lle d P V fle e t ha d re a c he d a le ve l tha t ma ke s it ve ry d iffic ult for a nnua l insta lla tion fluc tua tions to ha ve a nota b le imp a c t.But the world s la

216、rge st ma rke t Chi nas e xp losive growth in 2023 wa s so outsta nd ing tha t its tota l insta lle d c a p a c ity sha re rose to 40%,from 34%in 2022(se e F ig.18).Comb ine d,APAC i ncl udi ng Chi na now a c c ounts for 61%of tota l sola r P V insta lla tions,a d d ing up to ne a rly 1 T W to b e e

217、 xa c t,995 G W,a highe r sha re tha n in a ny of the la st six ye a rs.Without China,AP AC lost more ma rke t sha re s tha n a ny othe r re gion 4 p e rc e nta ge p oints d own to 21%.Eur opes glob a l ma rke t sha re slightly d e c re a se d b y 1 p e rc e nta ge p oint to 20%d e sp ite signific a

218、 nt sola r growth in most of its ma rke ts.I n te rms of tota l op e ra ting sola r c a p a c ity,Europ e ma inta ine d its p osition a s the se c ond-la rge st re gion in 2023.T he re c ord a d d ition of 70.2 G W stre ngthe ne d Europ e s se c ond p la c e with a c umula tive P V c a p a c ity of

219、322 G W.With a tota l insta lle d P V c a p a c ity of 258 G W,the Amer i cas ke p t its third p la c e in the re giona l ra nking in 2023,b ut lost 1%of glob a l sha re to re a c h 16%.Although MEA e xp e rie nc e d sub sta ntia l growth of 45%a fte r insta lling 48.1 G W,it d id ne ithe r a ffe c

220、t its ove ra ll sola r p ositioning a s the sma lle st glob a l sola r re gion nor its ove ra ll ma rke t sha re of 3%.FIGURE 18 T OT AL S OL AR P V I NS T AL L ED CAP ACI T Y S HAR ES 2017-20230102030405060708090%EuropeAMERAPACChinaMEA10020192020202120222023201820171.7%2.0%2.7%2.6%2.7%2.8%3%32%34%3

221、2%33%33%34%40%24%25%26%26%26%25%21%15%15%16%16%17%17%16%28%24%24%22%22%21%20%S OL AR P OWER EU R OP E 2024T he top 5 s ol ar nati ons ha ve nt se e n a ny c ha nge s in the ir 2023 ra nkings c omp a re d to the p re vious ye a r.U nsurp risingly,China is le a d ing the glob a l le a d e r with a tot

222、a l sola r p owe r fle e t of 656 G W,c ontrolling 40%of the world s sola r c a p a c ity a t the e nd of 2023(F ig.19).T he Uni ted States he ld ste a d y its se c ond p la c e with 173 G W,a lthough its ma rke t sha re fe ll b y 1 p e rc e nta ge p oint to 11%.J a p a n ma inta ine d the third sp

223、ot,p rob a b ly for the la st time,a fte r its sha re ha s b e e n d wind ling for ye a rs,this time b y 1 p e rc e nta ge p oint to 6%,b a se d on a n op e ra tiona l c a p a c ity of 90.4 G W.While I nd ia a t 90.1 G W a nd G e rma ny a t 83.0 G W ke p t the ir fourth a nd fifth sp ots,d e sp ite

224、losing 1%ma rke t sha re ye a r-on-ye a r,b oth might ta ke ove r J a p a n in 2024.F or the mome nt,I nd ia hold s 6%a nd G e rma ny 5%of the tota l insta lle d glob a l c a p a c ity re sp e c tive ly.Altoge the r,the top 5 la rge st ma rke ts op e ra te d 67%of the glob a l sola r fle e t in 2023

225、,a slight inc re a se from 66%in 2022.T he ir c umula tive c a p a c ity surp a sse d the 1 T W le ve l,re a c hing 1,092 G W b y the e nd of 2023,c omp a re d to 774 G W one ye a r p rior.T he re we re no c ha nge s a mong the glob a l top 5 sola r p owe r fle e t op e ra tors a nd its ve ry unlike

226、 ly a ny othe r na tion will e nte r soon.Bra zil,in sixth p la c e,owns le ss tha n ha lf of G e rma nys tota l sola r P V c a p a c ity.Within the lowe r ha lf of the top 10,Bra zil imp rove d b y four p ositions to#6 with 39.4 G W,while Austra lia move d d own two sp ots to#8 with 36.1 G W insta

227、lle d.S p a in is now ra nke d 7th with 36.3 G W,I ta ly on the 9th p osition with 29.8 G W,a nd S outh K ore a c lose s the top 10,op e ra ting a sola r fle e t of 27.3 G W.G lob a l Ma rke t Outlook F or S ola r P owe r 2024-2028301 G l o b a l s o l a r ma r k e t-U p d a te 2000-2023/c ontinue d

228、FIGURE 19 T OP 10 S OL AR P V MAR K ET S T OT AL I NS T AL L ED S HAR ES 2023Italy:2%Japan:6%Spain:2%India:6%Germany:5%United States:11%South Korea:1%Australia:2%Rest of World:22%Brazil:2%China:40%1,624 GW S OL AR P OWER EU R OP E 2024S o l a r wa tt p e r c a p i ta Ana lysing the sola r ma rke t o

229、n a wa tt-p e r-c a p ita b a sis p rovid e s va lua b le insights on the d e ve lop me nt p ote ntia l of c ountrie s b e yond the ir a b solute insta lle d c a p a c itie s.N e xt to China,G e rma ny sta nd s out in the sola r world its Europ e s la rge st ma rke t,a mong the top 5 glob a l sola r

230、 p owe r op e ra tors,a nd a top 3 ma rke t in te rms of wa tt-p e r-c a p ita insta lla tions.I ts a n e xa mp le for c ountrie s whe re a growth e nvironme nt ha s b e e n c re a te d through sup p ortive p olic y fra me works a nd a mb itious ta rge ts.I t is a like ly c ontrib uting re a son to

231、why se ve n of the glob a l top 10 ma rke ts with the highe st sola r p e r c a p ita ra te s a re Europ e a n,a nd a ll b ut Austra lia,J a p a n a nd the U nite d Ara b Emira te s a re b a se d in the Europ e a n U nion.I n the EU,re ne wa b le s ha ve b e e n high on the a ge nd a for ye a rs,a n

232、d d uring the e ne rgy c risis,it ha s e mb ra c e d sola r a s a ke y te c hnology to stre ngthe n e ne rgy se c urity.T he top 5 ma rke ts with the la rge st insta lle d P V c a p a c ity p e r inha b ita nt sa w fe w c ha nge s,the top 3 e ve n re ma ine d the sa me (se e F ig.20).End of 2023,Aus

233、tra lia le d with 1,359 W/c a p ita,followe d c lose ly b y the N e the rla nd s with 1,299 W/c a p ita,a nd G e rma ny with 996 W/c a p ita.L ike in 2022,only two c ountrie s in the world e xc e e d e d the 1 kW/c a p ita thre shold in 2023.Austra lia re a c he d this mile stone in 2021 a nd wa s j

234、 oine d b y the N e the rla nd s in 2022.De nma rk shifte d d own one ra nk to the 5th sp ot with 828 W/c a p ita b e c a use of a la c klustre sola r p e rforma nc e in 2023.Be lgium c limb e d one ra nk to e nte r the top 4 ma rke ts with 846 W/c a p ita.J a p a n ha s fa lle n to the e ighth p la

235、 c e,b e ing p a sse d b y b oth Estonia a nd S p a in.I t is te lling tha t the world s la rge st ma rke t China is only ra nke d 12th,d e sp ite its glob a l ma rke t d omina nc e,a nd the glob a l#2,U nite d S ta te s on the 26th p la c e whe n it c ome s to insta lle d sola r p e r c a p ita.I n

236、d ia,the world s most p op ula te d c ountry,is only on the 74th p osition c le a rly showing how muc h furthe r growth p ote ntia l the re is for sola r.FIGURE 20 WOR L D T OP 10 COUNT R I ES S OL AR CAP ACI T Y P ER CAP I T A 2023AustraliaBelgiumSpainLegendDenmarkJapanEstoniaUnited ArabEmiratesNet

237、herlandsGermany1st6th8th5th7th10th2nd1,359(1,179)Watt/capita825(603)Watt/capita735(681)Watt/capitaWatt/capitain 2023828(709)Watt/capita846(684)Watt/capita764(576)Watt/capita708(388)Watt/capita1,299(1,026)Watt/capita996(816)Watt/capitaAustria9th719(421)Watt/capita4th3rd(Watt/capita)in 2022 S OL AR P

238、OWER EU R OP E 2024G lob a l Ma rke t Outlook F or S ola r P owe r 2024-2028311 G l o b a l s o l a r ma r k e t-U p d a te 2000-2023/c ontinue dG lob a l Ma rke t Outlook F or S ola r P owe r 2024-202832F rom a n a nnua l a d d ition p e rsp e c tive,the wa tt-p e r-c a p ita me tric top ra nking l

239、ooks ve ry d iffe re nt tha n the tota ls(se e F ig.21).T his top 10 list c onta ins six d iffe re nt c ountrie s a nd the top thre e d o not a p p e a r in the 2023 Wa tt/c a p ita ra nking(China,U S a nd Bra zil).T he Europ e a n d omina nc e is e ve n more p ronounc e d with e ight out of the top

240、 10 c oming from the EU.T he U nite d Ara b Emira te s se c ure d the top sp ot with 323 W/c a p ita a d d e d in a ye a r.T he c ountry showe d imme nse growth rising from a me re 54 W/c a p ita in 2022 to the first p la c e in one ye a r,b e c a use of its la rge-sc a le P V p la nt d e ve lop me

241、nt in 2023.Austria a nd the N e the rla nd s followe d with 299 a nd 276 W/c a p ita a d d e d.While Austria c limb e d thre e sp ots in the ra nking,the N e the rla nd s is no longe r the top p e rforme r,shifting d own two sp ots.L ithua nia,S love nia c omp le te the top five a nd Estonia follows

242、 on the sixth sp ot,p roving the c a se for strong d e ve lop me nt in Ea ste rn Europ e a n ma rke ts.F ina lly,Austra lia,S p a in,S we d e n a nd G e rma ny c omp le te the list,with a ll b ut S we d e n b e ing a top 10 ma rke t a s we ll.FIGURE 21 WOR L D T OP 10 COUNT R I ES I N ANNU AL S OL A

243、R CAP ACI T Y P ER CAP I T A ADDI T I ONS 2023050100150200250300350W/capita increaseUAEAustriaGermanyAustraliaEstoniaSloveniaSwedenNetherlandsSpainLithuania20232022 S OL AR P OWER EU R OP E 2024G lob a l Ma rke t Outlook F or S ola r P owe r 2022-202633G lob a l Ma rke t Outlook F or S ola r P owe r

244、 2022-2026A c omp a rison of the d iffe re nt ra nkings of this c ha p te r shows only G e rma ny,S p a in a nd Austra lia b e ing liste d in a ll four top 10 ra nkings(se e F ig.22).T he strong d iffe re nc e b e twe e n the U nite d Ara b Emira te s in the a nnua l a nd c umula tive W/c a p ita ra

245、 nkings,shows how re la tive ly la rge the re c e nt d e ve lop me nts of utility-sc a le sola r ha ve b e e n.All thre e ma j or sola r re gions e xc e e d e d the glob a l a ve ra ge of 202 W/c a p ita b y e nd of 2023.Europ e le d with 382 W/c a p ita,followe d b y the Ame ric a s with 248 W/c a

246、p ita,a nd AP AC inc lud ing China with 226 W/c a p ita (se e F ig.23).I n c ontra st,the Mid d le Ea st a nd Afric a re gion la gge d d ra ma tic a lly b e hind,re a c hing only 27 W/c a p ita.Consid e ring the re gion s p op ula tion of ne a rly 1.8 b illion p e op le a nd on the one ha nd the e c

247、 onomic p owe r of some Ara b c ountrie s a nd on the othe r the low e le c trific a tion ra te s in ma ny Afric a n na tions,the re is e normous p ote ntia l for sola r growth.L ooking a t the sp e e d of P V d e p loyme nt in W/c a p ita te rms,AP AC le d with a 43%growth ra te,inc re a sing from

248、193 to 226 W/c a p ita b e twe e n 2022 a nd 2023.T he Mid d le Ea st a nd Afric a re gion c a me se c ond with a 41%growth ra te,rising from 19 to 27 W/c a p ita,while Ame ric a s a nd Europ e show simila r growth ra te s,with 29%a nd 28%,re sp e c tive ly.T he d istrib ution of sola r d e p loyme

249、nt on a wa tt-p e r-c a p ita me tric va rie s wid e ly for the d iffe re nt re gions.Europ e d e monstra te s the most he te roge nous d istrib ution with 45%of the c ountrie s a b ove the re gions a ve ra ge,a nd the le a d e rs signific a ntly.I n the Ame ric a s a ll b ut two c ountrie s U S a n

250、d Chile we re b e low the re gions a ve ra ge e nd of la st ye a r.I n AP AC,whe re 55%of the glob a l p op ula tion live s a nd whic h op e ra te s ne a rly two third s of the world s sola r fle e t,the b ulk of the c ountrie s re ma ine d b e low the re gions a ve ra ge a nd only five we re a b ov

251、e,inc lud ing Austra lia,a c le a r outlie r whe re a b out e ve ry third house hold use s sola r P V tod a y.FIGURE 22 COUNT R Y R ANK I NG 2023 S OL AR P OWER EU R OP E 2024AN N U AL AD D I T I ONC U MU L AT I V E C AP AC I T YANNU AL WAT T P E R C AP I T AC U MU L AT I V E WAT T P E R C AP I T A1

252、.Chi na Chi na Uni ted Ar ab Emi r ates Aus tr al i a 2.Uni ted States Uni ted States Aus tr i a Nether l ands 3.Br azi l Japan Nether l ands Ger many 4.Ger many Indi a Li thuani a Bel gi um 5.Indi a Ger many Sl oveni a Denmar k 6.Spai n Br azi l Es toni a Es toni a 7.Japan Spai n Aus tr al i a Spai

253、 n 8.Ital y Aus tr al i a Spai n Japan 9.Aus tr al i a Ital y Sweden Aus tr i a 10.Nether l ands South Kor ea Ger many Uni ted Ar ab Emi r ates 1 G l o b a l s o l a r ma r k e t-U p d a te 2000-2023/c ontinue dG lob a l Ma rke t Outlook F or S ola r P owe r 2024-202834FIGURE 23 WAT T P ER CAP I T A

254、 ACR OS S R EGI ONS 2013-20230W/capita201320132013201320142014201420142015201520152015201620162016201620172017201720172018201820182018201920192019201920202020202020202021202120212021202220222022202220232023202320231,4001,2001,000800600400200EuropeAMERAPACMEA20238224822627Europe averageAMER averageWo

255、rld averageAPAC averageMEA averageNetherlandsUnited StatesAustraliaIsraelGermanyChileJapanUnited Arab Emirates S OL AR P OWER EU R OP E 2024 G lob a l Ma rke t Outlook F or S ola r P owe r 2024-202835P r o s p e c ts 2024-2028 F o r e c a s t 2024 I n the b e ginning of 2024,the sola r P V se c tor

256、found itse lf in a ve ry d iffe re nt p osition tha n one ye a r e a rlie r.T he e ne rgy c risis wa s ove r a nd p owe r p ric e s ha d ra p id ly a d va nc e d on a p a th towa rd s the muc h lowe r le ve ls se e n in e a rly 2021.G iga ntic growth on the sola r d e ma nd sid e me t p rod uc tion

257、c a p a c itie s tha t e xp a nd e d e ve n fa ste r,a nd to le ve ls unse e n b e fore.T he I EA e stima te s tha t China c ould ha ve p rod uc e d 800 G W,a nd not j ust 560 G W,if e xisting c a p a c ity we re utilise d a t 85%inste a d of a round 50%.5 N o wond e r P V p rod uc ts a c ross the v

258、a lue c ha in a nd most syste m c omp one nts ha ve b e e n und e r strong p ric e p re ssure.At the sta rt of 2024,Chine se sola r silic on c ost a round 70%le ss tha n a ye a r b e fore,while fa c tory-ga te mod ule p ric e s d rop p e d b y 50%ye a r-on-ye a r;a d ownwa rd tre nd tha t ha ve not

259、c ome to ha lt in the first five months of 2024 b y our e d itoria l d e a d line e nd of Ma y,p ric e s for silic on ha d tumb le d a nothe r 40%a nd for mod ule s b y 10-15%,d e p e nd ing on te c hnology.Wha ts b a d for the ma nufa c turing ind ustry turns out to b e a b oon for the d ownstre a

260、m se c tor low p rod uc t p ric e s will sta y a ma in d rive r in a n e nvironme nt of c ontinuous high inte re st ra te s a nd ve ry mod e st e c onomic growth p roj e c tions for ma j or we ste rn sola r ma rke ts,a nd d e te riora ting c ond itions in China,Bra zil or I nd ia,a c c ord ing to th

261、e I MF s Ap ril World Ec onomic Outlook.6 Amid the se c ha lle nging c irc umsta nc e s,the glob a l sola r ma rke t is e xp e c te d to c ontinue growing in 2024,though a t a muc h lowe r ra te tha n in 2023.O ur Me d ium S c e na rio fore c a sts a glob a l growth ra te of 22%to a ma rke t size of

262、 544 G W,a p p roxima te ly 100 G W more 5I EA(2024):Ad va nc ing Cle a n T e c hnology Ma nufa c turing.6I MF (2024):World Ec onomic Outlook.FIGURE 24 ANNU AL S OL AR P V MAR K ET S CENAR I OS 2023-2024 0100200300400500600447700GW20232024HistoricalLow ScenarioMedium ScenarioHigh Scenario4615446473%

263、22%45%S OL AR P OWER EU R OP E 2024tha n in 2023(se e F ig.24).As we ve se e n in re c e nt ye a rs,c urre nt glob a l ma rke t fore c a sting will d e p e nd la rge ly on ge tting China s sola r d e p loyme nt right d ue to its outsta nd ing p osition in the glob a l P V la nd sc a p e.China re a c

264、 he d ne w he ights in 2023 d ue to a signific a nt inc re a se in P V mod ule sup p ly a nd a sha rp d e c re a se in mod ule p ric e s.I n 2024,p rod uc tion c a p a c ity will still inc re a se b ut not a t the e xc e p tiona l ra te witne sse d in the p a st two ye a rs.S imila rly,mod ule p ric

265、 e s a re not e xp e c te d to d e c re a se a s ste e p ly a s the y d id from la te 2022 to la te 2023.China a c hie ve d ne w re c ord s in 2023 a nd ra ise d the b a r for sola r;2024 is e xp e c te d to c ontinue a long simila r line s,b ut without the sa me ground b re a king a d va nc e me nt

266、s.I n our L ow S c e na rio for 2024,we p roj e c t a ma rke t size of 461 G W,re p re se nting a mod e st 3%growth from 2023 le ve ls.T his ve ry slow growth is b a se d a mong othe rs on a ssump tions tha t d e ma nd for sola r P V in se ve ra l re gions ma y not inc re a se a s ra p id ly a s a n

267、tic ip a te d following the e ne rgy c risis.T ra d e d isp ute s a nd p rote c tive me a sure s a ga inst c he a p imp orte d mod ule s ob se rve d in the U nite d S ta te s a nd I nd ia b oil up a nd e xte nd p ote ntia lly to the EU.I nte re st ra te s will not d e c re a se,loc a l c onflic ts a

268、 ggra va te a nd d e p re ss e c onomie s.China c ould limit sola r se c tor growth a s its p owe r ne tworks a nd its e ne rgy se c tor inc re a singly fa c e issue s with the ma ssive volume s of va ria b le sola r p owe r syste ms fe e d ing into the grid.Our more op timistic H igh S c e na rio,o

269、n the othe r ha nd,p roj e c ts 45%a nnua l growth to a ma rke t volume of 647 G W in 2024.T he sc e na rio is b a se d on the following a ssump tions:p olic y ma ke rs,b usine sse s a nd ind ivid ua ls ha ve le a rne d the ir le ssons from the e ne rgy c risis,with ke y ma rke ts c ontinuing to imp

270、 le me nt stra te gic d e c isions in line with re ne wa b le e ne rgy c ommitme nts ma d e in 2022-2023.A c ontinuous ove rsup p ly will furthe r p rovid e ve ry low-p ric e mod ule s,inve rte rs a nd b a tte rie s furthe r unloc king p ric e-e la stic d e ma nd,igniting strong growth in e me rging

271、 a nd ne w ma rke ts.China will not limit growth of its sola r ma rke t in a stra te gic move to sup p ort its d ome stic sola r ind ustry a t a time the c ountry fa c e s low e c onomic growth ra te s a nd Chine se ma nufa c ture rs a re c onfronte d with tra d e b a rrie rs in va rious inte rna ti

272、ona l ma rke ts.R e gi o na l d e v e l o p me nts 2024 T he As i a-Paci fi c re gion will c ontinue to b e d omina te d b y its two la rge st ma rke ts,China a nd I nd ia.T oge the r,b oth will a c c ount for 84%of the re gion s insta lle d c a p a c ity in 2024,a c c ord ing to our Me d ium S c e

273、na rio.Comp a re d to 2023,I nd ia s ma rke t sha re is e xp e c te d to inc re a se slightly from 4%to 5%,while China s sha re will re a c h 79%of AP ACs d e p loyme nt,d own from 83%in 2023.Afte r the imp re ssive growth re giste re d in 2023,Chi nas ma rke t is e xp e c te d to slow d own in 2024

274、,re a c hing a ma rke t size of 299 G W with a n 18%a nnua l inc re a se.F or the first time sinc e 2021,this growth ra te is lowe r tha n the e xp e c te d glob a l ma rke t growth of 22%,a lthough the a b solute volume s a re so la rge tha t the fore c a ste d le ve l of insta lla tions still a c

275、c ounts for 55%of world wid e a d d itions,only 2 p e rc e nta ge p oints le ss tha n in 2023.T he H igh S c e na rio se e s the Chine se ma rke t growing b y 41%ye a r-on-ye a r to re a c h 356 G W in 2024.H owe ve r,our Me d ium S c e na rio fore c a st is a lre a d y op timistic c omp a re d to o

276、the r a na lysts.CP I A e stima te s a ma rke t size b e twe e n 190 a nd 220 G WAC.Assuming a 1.3 DC/AC ra tio,this p la c e s the ir highe st e stima te a t 286 G W,whic h is b e low our Me d ium S c e na rio for 2024.Our up b e a t fore c a st is d rive n b y the signific a nt p ip e line of util

277、ity-sc a le p roj e c ts,fue lle d b y d e c lining c osts of P V syste m c omp one nts,a nd strong ma rke t d e ve lop me nts in the first months of the ye a r.F rom J a nua ry to Ap ril 2024,China insta lle d a round 60 G WAC,25%more tha n in the sa me p e riod 2023.2024 will a lso b e the ye a r

278、whe n China a c hie ve s its 2030 N a tiona l De te rmine d Contrib ution(N DC)ta rge t of 1.2 T W wind a nd sola r c a p a c ity 6 ye a rs in a d va nc e,a nd j ust a nothe r e xa mp le of China ove rshooting its sola r ta rge ts.F or more insights on the Chine se ma rke t,se e our foc us c ha p te

279、 r a t p.61 a nd the CP I A a rtic le a t p.84.I n APAC wi thout Chi na,I nd ia a c c ounte d for a qua rte r of a ll insta lle d c a p a c ity in 2023 a nd is e xp e c te d to susta in a simila r 24%ma rke t sha re in 2024.Afte r the ma rke t c ontra c tion oc c urre d in 2023,we e xp e c t a re b

280、ound in 2024 with 19 G W a nd a 51%growth.T his a ligns with the gove rnme nts a mb itions sinc e 2022 to re a c h 280 G W b y 2030.Ac hie ving this ta rge t would re quire the a nnua l ma rke t to grow ra p id ly,a ve ra ging ove r 27 G W p e r ye a r b e twe e n 2024 a nd 2030.T his growth is a ls

281、o me a nt to sup p ort loc a l ma nufa c turing of sola r P V,fund e d und e r the gove rnme nts P L I sc he me.Consid e ring I nd ia s va st a nd la rge ly unta p p e d 1 G l o b a l s o l a r ma r k e t-P rosp e c ts 2024-2028/c ontinue dG lob a l Ma rke t Outlook F or S ola r P owe r 2024-202836G

282、 lob a l Ma rke t Outlook F or S ola r P owe r 2024-202837sola r p ote ntia l a nd the a va ila b ility of stoc kp ile d p rod uc ts a he a d of the re-introd uc e d loc a l c onte nt me a sure s for mod ule s,b rid ging the ga p until la rge volume s of d ome stic a lly p rod uc e d p rod uc ts b e

283、 c ome a va ila b le,our H igh S c e na rio p roj e c ts a n inc re a se to ove r 24 G W insta lle d in 2024.Diffe re nt d e ve lop me nts a re e xp e c te d a c ross most Asia-P a c ific G W ma rke ts in 2024.J a p a n is p roj e c te d to grow b y 7%to a 6.7 G W ma rke t,d e monstra ting re ma rka

284、 b le re silie nc e und e r le ss fa voura b le ma rke t c ond itions.Austra lia is e xp e c te d to inc re a se b y 22%to re a c h 6.2 G W,while T a iwa n is se t to re a c h 3 G W with a 10%growth ra te.P a kista n will c ontinue its growth tra j e c tory with a 12%inc re a se in 2024,re a c hing

285、1.4 G W.Ma la ysia is e stima te d to a c hie ve the G W sc a le in 2024 with a 22%growth.Ad d itiona lly,two c ountrie s a re a ntic ip a te d to surge from a b out 100 MW to the G W-le ve l in 2024:the P hilip p ine s,with a e ight-fold growth to 1.5 G W,a nd U zb e kista n,with a nine-fold inc re

286、 a se to 1.2 G W,highlighting the d yna mism in the AP AC ma rke t.On the c ontra ry,S outh K ore a s p olitic a l shift towa rd s infle xib le nuc le a r e ne rgy a nd a ma ssive re d uc tion of its re ne wa b le ta rge t ha ve ne ga tive ly imp a c te d its sola r ma rke t.T he ma rke t is e xp e

287、c te d to furthe r p rogre ss on its d ownturn p a th,b y 16%in 2024,re a c hing 2.5 G W.APAC i ncl udi ng Chi na will d omina te glob a l d e ma nd e ve n more in 2024,a s we e xp e c t 2%growth to a glob a l sha re of 70%(se e F ig.25).But this is like ly not to b e a ttrib ute d to China s ma rke

288、 t sha re,whic h is e xp e c te d to d rop slightly from 57%to 55%in 2024.Without China,the re gions sha re is p roj e c te d to inc re a se b y 4 p e rc e nta ge p oints,from 11%to 15%.FIGURE 25 R EGI ONAL S HAR ES OF GL OBAL S OL AR MAR K ET 2022-2024 0102030405060708090%ChinaAPAC without ChinaEur

289、opeAMERMEA10020232024202240%57%55%20%11%15%17%13%13%19%16%14%3%3%3%S OL AR P OWER EU R OP E 2024Europ e s ma rke t is p roj e c te d to e xp e rie nc e c ontinuous growth in 2024.Afte r it a d d e d 70.1 G W in 2023,Europ e is e xp e c te d to a d d 77 G W in 2024,a 10%a nnua l ma rke t inc re a se.

290、H owe ve r,d ue to China s d omina nc e,the c ontine nts ma rke t sha re will shrink b y 2 p e rc e nta ge p oints to 14%.T he EU is d riving sola r growth through its G re e n De a l a nd R EP owe rEU initia tive s,a iming for c a rb on ne utra lity b y 2050.T he inva sion of U kra ine b y R ussia

291、ha s c re a te d mome ntum for se ve ra l Europ e a n c ountrie s to p rioritise low-c ost a nd ve rsa tile sola r p owe r a s a me a ns to re d uc e d e p e nd e nc e on R ussia n ga s a nd imp rove e ne rgy se c urity.T od a y,p owe r p ric e s a re ge tting c lose to p re-e ne rgy c risis le ve l

292、s,a nd the re d uc tion of ga s d e p e nd e nc y is no longe r the ma in d rive r.I nste a d,e na b ling re gula tory fra me works a nd a p rofita b le b usine ss c a se for sola r P V ne e d to susta in ma rke t growth,whic h,a t 5%in the EU-27 for 2024,will b e muc h lowe r tha n in the re c e nt

293、“e me rge nc y”time s.Within the EU-27,19 out of 27 ma rke ts a re p roj e c te d to insta ll more sola r c a p a c ity tha n the ye a r b e fore,in c ontra st to the 26 ma rke ts tha t gre w ye a r-on-ye a r in 2023.G e rma nys d omina nc e is e xp e c te d to c ontinue with a 7%ma rke t growth to

294、16.1 G W,d e monstra ting its ma turity a fte r the 104%j ump to 15 G W in 2023.S p a in a nd I ta ly a re e stima te d to re ma in in se c ond a nd third p ositions re sp e c tive ly,with the S p a nish ma rke t p roj e c te d to d e c re a se b y 12%in 2024 a nd the I ta lia n ma rke t to inc re a

295、 se b y 13%.T he I ta lia n ma rke t p rove s re silie nt,with a n inc re a se e xp e c te d d e sp ite the lowe ring of re sid e ntia l inc e ntive s,while S p a in shows signs of d e c line in b oth utility-a nd re sid e ntia l sc a le,a fte r sola r re a c he d a 17%sha re in the e le c tric ity

296、mix in 2023.F urthe r d e ta ils on the EU-27 ma rke t a s a whole a re p rovid e d on p.87.Among non-EU c ountrie s,T rkiye is e xp e c te d to ma inta in its signific a nt ma rke t growth,insta lling 2.7 G W in 2023(+69%)a nd p roj e c te d to insta ll 4.6 G W in 2024(+68%).T his unp re c e d e nt

297、e d growth p a c e is a lso d rive n b y the gove rnme nts inc re a se d a mb ition to sup p ort its loc a l sola r ma nufa c turing ind ustry.T he re c e nt re la xa tion of rule s surround ing unlic e nc e d insta lla tions ha s c re a te d a ne w wa ve of insta lla tions in e a rly 2024 b y e na

298、b ling a b e tte r b usine ss c a se for se lf-c onsump tion insta lla tions.T he U nite d K ingd om is se t to re a c h 2.4 G W in 2024(+33%),c e me nting its p osition a s the se c ond-la rge st non-EU ma rke t.I n third p la c e,rooftop-d rive n S witze rla nd is a ntic ip a te d to a d d 1.9 G W

299、 in 2024,a 23%a nnua l growth.O ve ra ll,Europ e s sola r ma rke t is p oise d for growth,d rive n b y le gisla tive initia tive s a nd e ne rgy tra nsition p la ns tha t will d rive furthe r e le c trific a tion,grid c a p a c ity,a nd fle xib ility me a sure s.De sp ite fa c ing c ha lle nge s suc

300、 h a s re gula tory insta b ility a nd grid c onge stion,Europ e will re ma in a n imp orta nt ma rke t on the glob a l sola r ma p in 2024 a nd b e yond.T his is e sp e c ia lly true for inte rna tiona l ma nufa c ture rs,who find it e a sie r to e xp ort the ir sola r p rod uc ts to this re gion c

301、 omp a re d to othe r la rge ma rke ts.1 G l o b a l s o l a r ma r k e t-P rosp e c ts 2024-2028/c ontinue dG lob a l Ma rke t Outlook F or S ola r P owe r 2024-202838Res i denti al PV i n Ger many.Enp a lG lob a l Ma rke t Outlook F or S ola r P owe r 2024-202839T he Amer i cas ma rke t sha re wil

302、l re ma in sta b le a t 13%in 2024,a llowing the c ontine nt to ma inta in its p osition a s the third la rge st re gion for sola r insta lla tions,with a tota l of 70.3 G W.T his ma rke t sha re c lose ly a ligns with Europ e s,a s the Ame ric a s will se e a strong inc re a se of 11.5 G W in a b s

303、olute insta lla tions(se e F ig.26).T he p rima ry d rive r b e hind sola r d e p loyme nt in the Ame ric a s is the U nite d S ta te s,whic h is e xp e c te d to hold a 59%sha re in 2024,up from 55%in 2023.T he August 2022 p a sse d I R A d e monstra te s the Bid e n Ad ministra tions stra te gy to

304、 tra nsform the U S into a glob a l c le a n e ne rgy p owe rhouse.T he I T C a nd re c e nt inte rc onne c tion re forms a re ma j or d rive rs of sola r growth,b oth on the insta lla tion a nd ma nufa c turing sid e.Bolste re d b y the I R A,signific a nt inve stme nts in ne w fa c torie s ha ve b

305、 e e n a nnounc e d b y b oth d ome stic c omp a nie s a nd sola r te c hnology le a d e rs from a b roa d.De sp ite a numb e r of c ha lle nge s,inc lud ing inc re a sing P V c osts,tra d e te nsions,the re form of ne t me te ring in Ca lifornia,a nd the up c oming p re sid e ntia l e le c tion,the

306、 U nite d S ta te s re ma ins one of the most a ttra c tive loc a tions for sola r inve stme nts tod a y.Our Me d ium S c e na rio p re d ic ts a 27%growth in sola r c a p a c ity to 41.3 G W this ye a r.I n Bra zil,the se c ond most imp orta nt ma rke t in the Ame ric a s,the outlook for this ye a

307、r a p p e a rs some wha t le ss p romising tha n la st ye a r,whic h showe d e xc e p tiona l growth.I n 2024,the le ss fa voura b le inve stme nt e nvironme nt a nd the 2023 c ha nge in ne t-me te ring le gisla tion a re se t to imp a c t the ma rke t,whic h we e xp e c t to d e c re a se 4%to 14.9

308、 G W.Chile a nd Me xic o sha re d the fourth p la c e in the Ame ric a s in 2023,with 1.7 G W insta lle d e a c h.While Chile s ma rke t d e c re a se d b y 10%from 1.8 G W,Me xic o s FIGURE 26 R EGI ONAL P V DEV EL OP MENT S 2023-2024 0501001502002503003502998077701725350705915GWChinaAPACwithout Ch

309、inaEuropeAMERMEA20232024 S OL AR P OWER EU R OP E 2024ma rke t inc re a se d b y 40%from 1.2 G W,d e sp ite the c ha lle nging p olitic a l e nvironme nt for re ne wa b le e ne rgy d e p loyme nt.H owe ve r,the c ond itions of 2023 d o not a p p ly to 2024,a nd a n 18%ma rke t d e c line to 1.4 G W

310、c a n b e e xp e c te d in Me xic o.O n the othe r ha nd,Chile is se t to re ga in p a c e,with a n 8%growth re a c hing 1.8 G W in 2024,a lthough the la c k of tra nsmission line s still p ose a ma j or c ha lle nge for mid-te rm sola r ma rke t growth.T he inc re a se in insta lla tions in 2023 re

311、 sulte d in a sta b le ma rke t sha re for the Mid d le Ea st a nd Afric a a t 3%.T he situa tion is e xp e c te d to b e simila r this ye a r.With the a d d ition of 17.1 G W,the re gion is p roj e c te d to e xp e rie nc e a 15%a nnua l growth.T he ma in c ontrib utor is S outh Afric a,whic h,for

312、the se c ond ye a r in a row,ma y a d d more tha n one-fifth of a ll MEA insta lle d c a p a c ity,re a c hing 3.5 G W.U nlike la st ye a r,this c a p a c ity is not ma tc he d b y the U nite d Ara b Emira te s,whic h will no longe r b e a mong the thre e G W-size d ma rke ts.I n 2024,the U AE is e

313、xp e c te d to a c c ount for 5%of the insta lle d c a p a c ity(0.8 G W),c omp a re d to 21%in 2023(3.1 G W),simp ly b e c a use no ma j or P V p owe r p la nt p roj e c ts a re e xp e c te d to b e grid-c onne c te d this ye a r.Be sid e s S outh Afric a,S a ud i Ara b ia is p roj e c te d to b e

314、the othe r G W-size d ma rke t in 2024.Afte r growing 400%in 2023 to a le ve l of 1.9 G W,in 2024 the ma rke t is e xp e c te d to d e c line b y 20%,whic h me a ns still G W-sc a le a t 1.5 G W.De sp ite this,ma ny sma lle r ma rke ts in the re gion,a ll with ve ry fa voura b le irra d ia tion c on

315、d itions,a re inc re a singly re c ognising the c ost a d va nta ge s,b usine ss op p ortunitie s,a nd e ne rgy se c urity p ote ntia l of sola r p owe r,le a d ing to a n up surge in sola r a c tivitie s throughout the a re a.As suc h,47 out of 63 a na lyse d ma rke ts a re fore c a ste d to e xp e

316、 rie nc e p ositive ma rke t growth,c omp a re d to 39 in 2023.G l o b a l s o l a r ma r k e t d e v e l o p me nts 2025-2028 We a ntic ip a te sub sta ntia l d e ma nd growth for sola r P V p owe r in the ye a rs 2025-2028,d rive n b y furthe r c ost imp rove me nts,p rod uc t a va ila b ility,a n

317、d the nume rous b e ne fits the te c hnology p rovid e s.Clima te e me rge nc y will c ontinue to c a p ture gove rnme nts a tte ntion,while e ne rgy se c urity will re ma in a c omp e lling a rgume nt to inve st in sola r p owe r in a quic kly fra gme nting world ord e r.At CO P 28 in De c e mb e r

318、 2023,p olic y le a d e rs c ommitte d to trip ling glob a l re ne wa b le e ne rgy c a p a c ity to a t le a st 11 T W b y 2030 a nd d oub ling the a nnua l ra te of e ne rgy e ffic ie nc y imp rove me nts from 2%to 4%.Ac c ord ing to the I R EN A,this ta rge t e qua ls to a round 5.5 T W sola r c

319、a p a c ity,a nd highlights sub sta ntia l growth op p ortunitie s for sola r P V,whic h is e xp e c te d to c ontrib ute signific a ntly(se e F ig.34 for a n ove rvie w of P V c umula tive c a p a c ity sc e na rios b y 2030).As the p le d ge inc lud e s only fe w d e ta ils a b out the re quire d

320、infra struc ture,e ne rgy stora ge or sola r ta rge ts,it re ma ins ha rd to j ud ge its a c tua l imp a c t,p a rtic ula rly in d e ve lop ing c ountrie s.N one the le ss,it c re a te s c e rta inty a b out the future glob a l sola r ma rke t d e ma nd,a nd a growing tre nd is a ll we c a n se e in

321、 the ne a r-te rm horizon.T he re a l que stion is the inc lina tion of tha t growth c urve.1 G l o b a l s o l a r ma r k e t-P rosp e c ts 2024-2028/c ontinue dG lob a l Ma rke t Outlook F or S ola r P owe r 2024-202840107 MW,Por t Augus ta,Aus tr al i a.I b e rd rolaG lob a l Ma rke t Outlook F o

322、r S ola r P owe r 2024-202841Comp a re d to our p re vious G lob a l Ma rke t Outlook,a ggre ga te a nnua l sola r a d d itions b e twe e n 2025 a nd 2027 ha ve b e e n inc re a se d from 1.6 T W to 2.1 T W.At the sa me time,a nnua l growth ra te s ha ve b e e n lowe re d,re fle c ting our a sse ssm

323、e nt tha t the surge in 2023 c ould ha ve b e e n the b e ginning of a nothe r ma rke t d e ve lop me nt p ha se a fte r a n e xtra ord ina ry growth p e riod fue lle d b y p ost-p a nd e mic p rod uc t a va ila b ility a nd the e ne rgy c risis.We e xp e c t slightly lowe r growth ra te s in the ra

324、 nge of 12-13%b e twe e n 2025 a nd 2028,c omp a re d to p re viously fore c a ste d 15-16%in the p e riod 2025-2027.Our Me d ium S c e na rio p roj e c ts the glob a l ma rke t to re a c h 614 G W in 2025,a 13%inc re a se from 544 G W in 2024(F ig.27).L ooking forwa rd,the Me d ium S c e na rio a n

325、tic ip a te s 12%inc re a se to 687 G W in 2026,12%to 773 G W in 2027,a nd 13%to 876 G W in 2028.I n the H igh S c e na rio,highe r a d op tion of sola r a c ross most re gions le a d s to a nnua l growth ra te s of 15-16%,lifting a nnua l a d d itions b e yond the 1 T W le ve l a lre a d y b y 2028

326、.T his sc e na rio is b a se d on simila r c onsid e ra tions a s for 2024.We a ssume tha t e ne rgy ma rke t d e signs a re quic kly a d a p te d to the ne e d s of re ne wa b le s,a nd grid infra struc ture,stora ge a nd fle xib ility solutions will b e d e p loye d ra p id ly to limit c urta ilme

327、 nt a nd fa lling c a p ture ra te s of sola r p owe r.O n the c ontra ry,our L ow S c e na rio a ssume s tha t ne c e ssa ry p olic y fra me works a nd infra struc ture up gra d e s c ontinue to la g b e hind,while c ha nge s to le ss p rogre ssive gove rnme nts,a nd c ulmina ting tra d e issue s n

328、e ga tive ly imp a c t sola r e xp a nsion.S uc h a sc e na rio tra nsla te s into lowe r growth ra te s of 8-10%to re a c h a nnua l insta lla tions of 668 G W in 2028,40%le ss tha n in the H igh S c e na rio,a nd 24%le ss tha n our Me d ium S c e na rio.FIGURE 27 WOR L D ANNU AL S OL AR P V MAR K

329、ET S CENAR I OS 2024-2028 2019202020212022202320242025202620272028447Historical dataLow ScenarioMedium ScenarioHigh ScenarioMedium Scenario02004006008001,0001,200GW64754413%12%12%13%22%6146877731,112876668461 S OL AR P OWER EU R OP E 202457%in 2023,Chi nas sha re is p roj e c te d to p rogre ssive l

330、y d e c line to 55%in 2024,50%in 2026,a nd 48%b y 2028.We ha d fore c a ste d tha t tre nd e a rlie r a nd a lthough China p rove d us wrong se ve ra l time s,we b e lie ve tha t tod a ys ve ry low c a p e x ne e d s for syste ms p a ire d with a ttra c tive L COEs will c re a te a strong mome ntum

331、for e me rging a nd ne w ma rke ts.Our la te st ma rke t sha re e xp e c ta tions for China ove r the c oming ye a rs a re 14 to 15 p e rc e nta ge p oints highe r tha n in la st ye a rs G MO.De sp ite the Europ e a n U nion s 2030 sola r ta rge ts a nd se ve ra l p olic y fra me work imp rove me nt

332、s for the te c hnology,sola r in Eur ope is a ntic ip a te d to grow slightly slowe r tha n in othe r re gions.I t will lose 2%ma rke t sha re,from 16%in 2023 to 14%b y 2027 a nd 2028,signific a ntly b e low the 19%we ha d a ssume d e a rlie r for 2027.Afte r surp a ssing the 1.6 T W le ve l in 2023

333、,the glob a l sola r p owe r fle e t is on tra c k to e xc e e d 2 T W b y 2024(se e F ig.28).Our Me d ium S c e na rio e stima te s the following mile stone s:2.2 T W in 2024,2.8 T W in 2025,3.5 T W in 2026,4.2 T W in 2027,a nd 5.1 T W in 2028 numb e rs tha t a re a ll signific a ntly highe r tha n fore c a ste d in la st ye a rs G MO(se e Box 1 a t p.78).U nd e r op tima l c ond itions,tota l gl