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1、Gas Market Report,Q3-2024The IEA examines the full spectrum of energy issues including oil,gas and coal supply and demand,renewable energy technologies,electricity markets,energy efficiency,access to energy,demand side management and much more.Through its work,the IEA advocates policies that will en

2、hance the reliability,affordability and sustainability of energy in its 31 member countries,13 association countries and beyond.This publication and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory,to the delimitation of international frontiers and bou

3、ndaries and to the name of any territory,city or area.IEA member countries:Australia Austria Belgium Canada Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Japan Korea LithuaniaLuxembourg Mexico Netherlands New Zealand Norway Poland Portugal Slovak Republic INTERNA

4、TIONAL ENERGY AGENCY Spain Sweden Switzerland Republic of TrkiyeUnited Kingdom United States The European Commission also participates in the work of the IEAIEA association countries:ArgentinaBrazilChinaEgyptIndiaIndonesiaKenyaMoroccoSenegalSingaporeSouth AfricaThailandUkraineSource:IEA.Internationa

5、l Energy Agency Website:www.iea.org Revised version,July 2024 Information notice found at:www.iea.org/correctionsPAGE|3 Abstract IEA.CC BY 4.0.Gas Market Report,Q3-2024 AbstractNatural gas markets moved to more pronounced growth in the first half of 2024,with initial estimates indicating that global

6、 gas demand increased at a rate well above its historical average during this period.Demand growth is primarily supported by higher gas use in industry and is increasingly concentrated in Asia,where both China and India returned to double-digit growth rates in the first half of 2024.Despite this str

7、ong growth,the outlook for gas demand remains fragile.Global LNG production underperformed in the second quarter of 2024,while geopolitical tensions are fuelling price volatility.Natural gas prices increased across all key markets in the second quarter of 2024,reflecting tighter market fundamentals.

8、For the full year of 2024,natural gas demand is forecast to increase by 2.5%in 2024,primarily driven by fast-growing Asian markets.Geopolitical instability represents the greatest risk to the short-term outlook.LNG trade has practically halted across the Red Sea since the start of the year,while Rus

9、sia is increasingly targeting energy infrastructure in Ukraine,including underground gas storage facilities.In this context,security of supply for natural gas remains a key aspect of energy policy making and the risks related to our outlook highlight the need to strengthen international co-operation

10、,including in assessing and implementing flexibility options along gas and LNG value chains.This edition of the quarterly Gas Market Report by the International Energy Agency(IEA)provides a thorough review of market developments over the first half of 2024 and a short-term outlook for the remainder

11、of 2024.As part of the IEAs Low-Emissions Gases Work Programme,the report includes a section dedicated to the medium-term outlook for biomethane,low-emissions hydrogen and e-methane.Gas Market Report,Q3-2024 PAGE|4 Table of contents IEA.CC BY 4.0.Table of contentsExecutive summary.5 Gas market updat

12、e.11 Medium-term outlook for low-emissions gases.43 Annex.55 Gas Market Report,Q3-2024 PAGE|5 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Executive summary Executive summary Gas Market Report,Q3-2024 PAGE|6 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Executive summary Global gas markets returned to growth in the first half of 2024,but outlook remains fragile

13、 Following the natural gas supply shock of 2022 and a gradual rebalancing in 2023,gas markets moved to more pronounced growth in the first half of 2024.Initial estimates indicate that global gas demand increased by 3%year-on-year(y-o-y)during this period,well above the historical 2%average growth ra

14、te between 2010 and 2020.Despite this strong growth,the recovery remains fragile.Global LNG production underperformed in the second quarter,while geopolitical tensions are fuelling price volatility.During the first quarter of 2024,gas prices dropped to levels last seen before the global energy crisi

15、s,however prices have increased across all key markets in recent months,reflecting tighter supply-demand fundamentals.Gas demand growth is expected to moderate in the second half of 2024.For the full year of 2024,global gas demand is forecast to increase by 2.5%,primarily driven by fast-growing Asia

16、n markets.Asia was the driving force behind global gas demand growth in the first half of 2024 Preliminary data suggest that global natural gas demand increased by 3%in the first half of 2024.However,70%of this demand growth was concentrated in the first quarter.LNG supply declined year-on-year in t

17、he second quarter,creating upward pressure on gas prices across key import markets,which in turn weighed on demand growth.Asia accounted for around 60%of the increase in global gas demand in the first half of 2024,with demand in both China and India increasing by just over 10%y-o-y.Higher gas use in

18、 industry contributed to almost 65%of global demand growth in the first half of 2024.This was primarily supported by the economic expansion of fast-growing Asian markets.Gas use in the power sector grew by a more moderate 2%y-o-y,as the strong gains in North America,fast-growing Asian markets and Eu

19、rasia were partially offset by lower gas-fired power generation in Europe.Gas demand in the residential and commercial sectors grew by 1%y-o-y amid unseasonably warm temperatures in the first quarter.Global LNG supply decreased in the second quarter its first contraction since the Covid lockdowns in

20、 2020 Global LNG supply growth remained lacklustre in the first half of 2024,increasing by a mere 2%,or around 6 bcm,year-on-year.This growth was entirely concentrated in the first quarter as LNG production rose by a robust 4.5%(or 6.5 bcm).By contrast,LNG output fell by 0.5%,or 0.5 bcm,y-o-y in the

21、 second quarter of 2024.This represents the first y-o-y quarterly decline since 2020,when Covid-induced lockdowns drastically reduced LNG demand and led to widespread cargo cancellations.In the second quarter of 2024,the decline in LNG production was largely driven by a combination of feed gas suppl

22、y issues and unexpected outages.Gas Market Report,Q3-2024 PAGE|7 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Executive summary Year-on-year growth in LNG supply is expected to accelerate during the second half of 2024,with new liquefaction capacity coming online.The United States is set to provide the lions share of new export c

23、apacity this year as existing plants expand and new plants start operating.This includes the expansion of Freeport LNG,the ramp-up of Plaquemines LNG Phase 1 over the summer,and the expected start-up of Corpus Christi Stage 3 near the end of 2024.The Tortue FLNG plant off the coast of West Africa is

24、 due to come online in the fourth quarter.Natural gas prices increased across all key markets in the second quarter The contraction in LNG supply combined with strong Asian demand growth tightened the global gas balance in the second quarter.Moreover,uncertainties re-emerged around Russian piped gas

25、 supplies to Europe,which fuelled additional price volatility.Consequently,gas prices rose across key Asian and European markets,rising above their 2023 levels by June 2024.In the United States,Henry Hub prices recovered from their multi-decade lows,rising by almost 70%between March and June.Product

26、ion cuts by upstream players,a strong increase in gas-fired power generation and higher gas exports all provided upward support to gas prices.Natural gas demand growth is expected to slow in the second half of 2024 Global gas demand growth is expected to fall below 2%y-o-y in the second half of 2024

27、.In part,the easing reflects the gradual recovery in demand,which was already underway in the second half of 2023.For the full year of 2024,global gas demand is forecast to grow by 2.5%,or just over 100 bcm.We expect the limited increase in global LNG supply to restrain growth in import markets.Indu

28、stry emerges as the most important driving force behind global demand,as gas use in the power sector is forecast to increase only marginally.This is because growth in fast-growing Asian markets and in gas-rich countries in Africa,the Middle East and North America is expected to be partially offset b

29、y declines in Europe.Low-emissions gas supply is expected to more than double by 2027 The deployment of low-emissions gases is expected to accelerate over the medium term.Our current forecast sees the supply of low-emissions gases more than doubling by 2027,translating into an increase of almost 16

30、bcm in absolute terms.This represents a significant upward revision compared with our medium-term outlook last year and reflects growing policy support for low-emissions gases.Europe and North America are set to drive this expansion,contributing over 70%of the overall growth.Nevertheless,further eff

31、orts are required to unleash the full potential of low-emissions gases and reach the ambitious targets set by governments.Besides Europe and North America,a number of emerging low-emissions gas producers are expected to scale up their output,including Brazil,China and India.Gas Market Report,Q3-2024

32、 PAGE|8 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Executive summary Global gas trade growth tightened in Q2 2024 amid lower LNG supply availability IEA.CC BY 4.0.-30-20-100 10 20 302023Q12023Q22023Q32023Q42024Q12024Q2Y-o-y change in bcmRussian piped gas to EuropeOther pipeline imports to EuropePipeline imports to ChinaGlobal L

33、NG supplyTotal y-o-y changeEstimated year-on-year change in key piped natural gas trade and global LNG supply by quarter,2023 2024 Gas Market Report,Q3-2024 PAGE|9 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Executive summary Natural gas prices strengthened across all key markets in Q2 2024 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Evolution of key regiona

34、l natural gas prices since 1 January 2024 -50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%02-Jan-2413-Jan-2424-Jan-2404-Feb-2415-Feb-2426-Feb-2408-Mar-2419-Mar-2430-Mar-2410-Apr-2421-Apr-2402-May-2413-May-2424-May-2404-Jun-2415-Jun-2426-Jun-24%change since 1 January 2024TTF-EuropePlatts JKM-AsiaHenry Hub-Unite

35、d States Gas Market Report,Q3-2024 PAGE|10 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Executive summary The supply of low-emissions gases is expected to more than double by 2027 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Estimated supply of low-emissions gases by type,in 2023 Forecast supply of low-emissions gases by type,in 2027 10 bcm-eq 25 bcm-eq Gas Ma

36、rket Report,Q3-2024 PAGE|11 Gas market update IEA.CC BY 4.0.Gas market update Gas Market Report,Q3-2024 PAGE|12 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Gas market update Global gas demand returned to more pronounced growth in H1 2024Following the contraction in 2022 and a gradual rebalancing in 2023,global gas markets return

37、ed to more pronounced growth in H1 2024 amid a lower price environment and improving supply fundamentals.Around 70%of this demand growth was concentrated in Q1.The slowing of LNG supply growth in Q2 provided upward pressure on gas prices across key import markets,which in turn weighed on gas demand

38、growth rates.Preliminary data suggest that natural gas demand increased by 3%(or 50 bcm)in H1 2024 in the markets covered by this IEA gas market update.1 Asia alone accounted for around 60%of incremental gas demand,primarily driven by the Peoples Republic of China(hereafter“China”)and India.Demand g

39、rowth was largely supported by higher gas use in industry,contributing almost 65%of the demand growth in H1 2024.Combined industrial gas consumption in China,Europe,India and the United States accounting for around half of the global amount increased by an impressive 6%(or near 20 bcm)y-o-y.Gas-to-p

40、ower demand grew by a more moderate 2%y-o-y,as the strong gains in North America,the fast-growing Asian markets and Eurasia were partially offset by lower gas-fired power generation in Europe.Gas demand in the residential and commercial sectors grew by a mere 1%y-o-y as an unseasonably 1 Asia Pacifi

41、c,Central and South America,Eurasia,Europe and North America.warm Q1 weighed on space heating requirements in Europe and North America.In North America natural gas demand rose by an estimated 2%(or 10 bcm)y-o-y in H1 2024.While residential and commercial demand declined amid unseasonably mild weathe

42、r conditions in Q1,these losses were more than offset by robust growth in gas-fired power generation across all markets of the region.Faced with multi-decade low gas prices during the FebruaryApril period,US upstream players optimised their dry gas output to balance the market,which led to a 1.5%y-o

43、-y decline in US gas production in Q2 2024.Lower dry gas output combined with strong gas-fired power generation and higher exports supported a recovery in natural gas prices in Q2.In Central and South America gas demand grew by an estimated 3%y-o-y,supported by higher gas use in the power and indust

44、rial sectors.This relatively strong demand growth increased the regions net LNG imports by close to 25%(or 1.3 bcm)y-o-y in H1 2024.Natural gas demand in Asia increased by an estimated 8%y-o-y(or over 30 bcm)in H1 2024.China continues to drive the regions gas demand growth,with the countrys gas cons

45、umption rising by 11%(or 17 bcm)y-o-y amid higher gas use across all end-use sectors.Lower natural gas prices continued to stimulate gas demand in India,with gas use in industry rising by over 20%y-o-y in the first Gas Market Report,Q3-2024 PAGE|13 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Gas market update five months of 2024

46、.Combined natural gas demand increased by an estimated 3%y-o-y in Japan and Korea in the first four months of 2024.Natural gas consumption in OECD Europe fell by 3.5%(or 9 bcm)y-o-y in H1 2024.The power sector remained the most important driver behind lower gas demand,as the strong expansion of rene

47、wables together with improving nuclear availability reduced the call on gas-fired power plants.Mild winter weather limited gas demand in the residential and commercial sectors in Q1.Conversely,gas use in the industrial sector continued to recover,supported by the lower price environment,albeit remai

48、ning well below its pre-crisis levels.In Eurasia natural gas demand rose by an estimated 5%y-o-y in H1 2024.A colder winter supported higher space heating requirements,while lower nuclear availability in the Russian Federation(hereafter“Russia”)increased the call on gas-fired power plants.Russias na

49、tural gas production increased by near 8%(or 22 bcm)y-o-y in the first five months of 2024.This growth was partly driven by stronger piped gas exports,including to China,Europe and Central Asia,as well as higher LNG production and rising domestic demand.Natural gas production displayed varying patte

50、rns in Central Asia.First estimates indicate that the region increased its piped gas deliveries to China,primarily driven by higher output in Turkmenistan.In Azerbaijan sales gas production grew by 4%(or 0.6 bcm)y-o-y in the first five months of 2024,supported both by higher domestic demand and stro

51、nger exports.Global gas demand is forecast to grow by 2.5%(or just over 100 bcm)in 2024.We anticipate growth to be capped in import markets by the limited increase in global LNG supply,which is expected to expand by a mere 3%(or 15 bcm).Industry and energy own use is expected to account for over 55%

52、of incremental gas demand in 2024.This is partly supported by continued economic expansion in fast-growing Asian markets,as well as recovery in Europes industrial gas demand.Following an unseasonably mild northern hemisphere winter,natural gas demand in the residential and commercial sectors is expe

53、cted to increase by 2.4%in 2024,assuming average weather conditions in Q4.Gas-to-power demand is forecast to increase only marginally,as higher gas burn in the fast-growing Asian markets,and the gas-rich countries of Africa,the Middle East and North America,is partially offset by the projected decli

54、nes in Europe.Gas demand in the Asia Pacific region is expected to expand by close to 5%in 2024 compared with 2023 and account for nearly 45%of incremental gas demand.Growth in Asia is largely supported by industrial activity and higher gas use in the power sector.Gas demand is forecast to increase

55、by 1%in North America and by 2%in Central and South America.In Europe natural gas demand is forecast to remain broadly flat,standing 20%below its 2021 levels.While Europes gas use in industry and for space heating is projected to recover,gas-fired generation is set to decline further.Combined gas de

56、mand in the gas-rich markets of Africa and the Middle East is forecast to increase by 3%.Similarly,Eurasian gas demand is projected to grow by 3%amid higher demand in industry and the residential and commercial sectors.Gas Market Report,Q4-2023 PAGE|14 Gas market update IEA.CC BY 4.0.Asia accounted

57、for around 60%of incremental gas demand in H1 2024 IEA.CC BY 4.0.*Bangladesh,China,India,Indonesia,Japan,Korea,Malaysia,Pakistan,Philippines,Singapore and Thailand.-8%-4%0%4%8%-30-20-100 10 20 30Asia*North AmericaEurasiaEuropeCentral and SouthAmericaY-o-y change in%Y-o-y change in bcmResidential and

58、 commercialPowerIndustryY-o-y changeEstimated y-o-y change in natural gas demand in key regions,H1 2024 vs H1 2023 Gas Market Report,Q4-2023 PAGE|15 Gas market update IEA.CC BY 4.0.Strong growth in industry drives incremental gas demand in 2024 IEA.CC BY 4.0.-200 20 40 60 80 100EuropeCentral and Sou

59、th AmericaAfricaNorth AmericaMiddle EastEurasiaAsia PacificWorldbcmResidential and commercialPowerIndustryOther sectorsNet changeForecast change in natural gas consumption by region and sector,2024 vs 2023 Gas Market Report,Q3-2024 PAGE|16 Gas market update IEA.CC BY 4.0.North American gas demand in

60、creased by an estimated 2%in the first half of 2024Natural gas consumption in North America rose by an estimated 2%(or 10 bcm)y-o-y in the first half of 2024.While residential and commercial demand continued to decline amid unseasonably mild weather conditions in Q1 both in Canada and the United Sta

61、tes,these losses were more than offset by robust growth in gas-fired power generation across all markets of the region.In the United States natural gas consumption increased by an estimated 1.5%(or 7 bcm)y-o-y in H1 2024,with growth primarily driven by the power sector.Natural gas demand in the resi

62、dential and commercial sectors fell by around 2.5%(or 3 bcm)y-o-y during the same period.While Storm Heather boosted space heating demand in January,milder weather conditions during February-May moderated gas use in the residential and commercial sectors.Overall,heating degree days were down by 2%y-

63、o-y during the first five months of 2024,which naturally weighed on space heating requirements.In addition,heating intensity in the residential and commercial sectors marginally declined,which suggests that non-weather related factors(including energy efficiency and electrification of heat)might hav

64、e also contributed to the lower gas use in buildings.In contrast,gas burn in the power sector continued its robust expansion and rose by 6%(or 9 bcm)y-o-y in H1 2024.This strong growth was primarily supported by higher electricity consumption,which grew by an estimated 4%y-o-y.Higher cooling degree

65、days contributed to stronger electricity demand,especially during the May-June period.The continued increase in gas-fired power generation provided upward pressure on gas prices,with Henry Hub averaging 17%above its 2023 levels in June.Natural gas demand in industry increased by an estimated 0.5%(or

66、 0.6 bcm)y-o-y in H1 2024,albeit remaining below its 2022 levels.In Canada natural gas consumption increased by an estimated 4%(or 3 bcm)y-o-y in H1 2024.Similarly to the United States,unseasonably mild weather conditions weighed on gas use in the residential and commercial sectors,which declined by

67、 10%y-o-y in the first four months of 2024.Combined gas demand in the industrial and power sectors rose by a strong 12%y-o-y during the same period,largely supported by stronger gas-fired generation at the expense of coal-fired power output.In Mexico natural gas consumption grew by an estimated 2%(o

68、r 1 bcm)y-o-y in H1 2024,amid the continued expansion of gas-fired power generation.Higher gas demand in Mexico supported stronger piped gas imports from the United States(up by almost 10%y-o-y in H1 2024).Following a mild Q1,natural gas demand in North America is forecast to increase by 1%in 2024.T

69、he power sector is expected to drive this growth,amid higher electricity demand.Gas demand in industry is expected to remain broadly flat amid a weak macro-economic environment.Gas Market Report,Q3-2024 PAGE|17 Gas market update IEA.CC BY 4.0.primarily fuelled by strong gas burn in the US power sect

70、or IEA.CC BY 4.0.Sources:IEA analysis based on EIA(2024),Natural Gas Consumption;Natural Gas Weekly Update.-8%-4%0%4%8%-30-20-100 10 20 302020H12020H22021H12021H22022H12022H22023H12023H22024H1Y-o-y change in%Y-o-y change in bcmResidential and commercialPowerIndustryOthersY-o-y changeEstimated y-o-y

71、change in semi-annual natural gas demand,United States,2021-2024 Gas Market Report,Q3-2024 PAGE|18 Gas market update IEA.CC BY 4.0.Strong gas-fired power generation drives demand growth in Central and South AmericaFollowing a decline of 1%in 2022,natural gas consumption in Central and South America

72、remained broadly flat in 2023.Preliminary data for H1 2024 indicate that the regions natural gas consumption increased by 3%y-o-y,primarily supported by higher gas use in the power and industrial sectors.This relatively strong demand growth increased the regions net LNG imports by around 25%(or 1.3

73、bcm)y-o-y in the first half of 2024.In Argentina the regions largest gas market natural gas consumption increased by 5.5%(or 0.65 bcm)y-o-y in the first four months of 2024,primarily supported by stronger gas burn in the power sector.Natural gas use in industry fell by 2%(or 0.1 bcm)y-o-y.In contras

74、t,gas-to-power demand increased by a strong 13%(or 0.6 bcm),while natural gas consumption in the residential and commercial sectors rose by 7.5%(or 0.15 bcm)y-o-y in the first four months of 2024.Higher natural gas demand was met by the robust growth in the countrys shale gas production,which increa

75、sed by 17%(or 1.4 bcm)y-o-y in the first five months of the year,primarily driven by higher output from the Vaca Muerta deposits.In contrast,natural gas output from conventional fields continued to decline and dropped by 11%(or 1 bcm)y-o-y during the same period of 2024.Natural gas consumption in Br

76、azil increased by an estimated 2%(or 0.3 bcm)in the first half of 2024.Sizzling heatwaves increased cooling demand,which in turn supported a strong increase in electricity consumption,up by an estimated 6%y-o-y in H1 2024.This strong demand growth was only partly met by higher hydro,wind and solar p

77、ower output,with the remaining gap bridged by gas-fired power plants.Gas-to-power demand surged by an estimated 6%y-o-y in H1 2024.In the wake of stronger gas demand,Brazils LNG inflows almost tripled compared to H1 2023,rising to near 1.5 bcm.In contrast,piped gas imports from Bolivia dropped by 4%

78、(or 0.1 bcm)y-o-y.In Trinidad and Tobago natural gas consumption rose by an estimated 1%y-o-y in Q1 2024,while in Venezuela observed natural gas consumption grew by 13%(or 0.65 bcm)y-o-y in the first four months of 2024.In Colombia natural gas consumption rose by 17%(or 0.8 bcm)y-o-y in H1 2024,almo

79、st entirely driven by the power sector.Lower hydro availability and sizzling heatwaves led to a surge in gas-to-power demand,which increased by an impressive 97%(or 0.8 bcm).Colombias LNG imports increased more than fivefold compared with H1 2023.Natural gas use continued to expand in Central Americ

80、a and the markets of the Caribbean Sea.Their combined LNG imports rose by more than 6%y-o-y in H1 2024.This forecast expects natural gas demand in Central and South America to increase by 2%in 2024.A hot and dry summer supporting stronger gas-fired power generation and higher usage in the industrial

81、 sector are expected to support gas demand growth.Gas Market Report,Q3-2024 PAGE|19 Gas market update IEA.CC BY 4.0.with the regions gas consumption rising by an estimated 3%in H1 2024 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Sources:IEA analysis based on ANP(2024),Boletim Mensal da Produo de Petrleo e Gs Natural;BMC(2024),In

82、formes Mensuales;Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago(2024),Statistics;CNE(2024),Generacin bruta SEN;ENARGAS(2024),Datos Abiertos;ICIS(2024),ICIS LNG Edge;IEA(2024),Monthly Gas Data Service;JODI(2024),Gas Database;MME(2024),Boletim Mensal de Acompanhamento da Industria de Gs Natural;OSINERG(2024),Rep

83、orte diario de la operacin de los sistemas de transporte de gas natural.-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%-2-10 1 22023Q12023Q22023Q32023Q42024Q12024Q2Y-o-y change in%Y-o-y change in bcmArgentinaBrazilColombiaOthersTotalY-o-y changeY-o-y change in quarterly natural gas demand,Central and South America,Q1 2023-Q2 202

84、4 Gas Market Report,Q3-2024 PAGE|20 Gas market update IEA.CC BY 4.0.Asias natural gas demand grew by an estimated 8%in H1 2024Following the contraction in 2022,Asias natural gas demand returned to growth in 2023.This trend continued into H1 2024,with preliminary data suggesting that the regions natu

85、ral gas consumption rose by an impressive 8%(or over 30 bcm)y-o-y and accounted for around 60%of global incremental gas demand over this period.This strong growth was primarily supported by China and India,both of which displayed double-digit growth rates.Economic expansion continued to drive strong

86、 growth in industrial gas demand,which alone accounted for over 40%of the regions incremental gas demand in H1 2024.Sizzling heatwaves drove up cooling demand in Q2,which in turn increased the call on gas-fired power plants.Asias strong demand growth supported higher LNG imports,which rose by 12%(or

87、 20 bcm)y-o-y in H1 2024.The Chinese economy emerged from the 2023/24 winter on a more bullish trajectory than previously expected,buoying gas demand to double-digit growth over the initial months of the year and setting full-year 2024 gas demand on track to grow faster than in 2023.Total Chinese na

88、tural gas consumption in Q1 2024 was up by approximately 11%y-o-y,driven by both fundamental and weather-related factors.In early 2023 Chinese gas demand was still partially emerging from the lingering effects of Covid-related lockdowns.Although industrial activity was on a recovery path,related gas

89、 consumption remained broadly flat compared to the previous years levels.One year later,with the recovery effect well under way and fundamental growth adding to demand dynamics,industrial sector gas demand in Q1 2024 was up by about 8%y-o-y.The city gas sector also contributed significantly to early

90、 2024 gas demand growth.Heating demand remained relatively strong through to the end of winter,reflecting both slightly colder weather in key provinces and greater penetration of gas heating in China.Road transport also supported the city gas segment,helped by the steep expansion of LNG truck sales

91、in 2023 that has extended into 2024.With more LNG-powered trucks on the road and improving price differentials between trucked LNG and diesel after the peak winter period,LNG demand in road transport was strong and growing in the early months of 2024.Overall thermal power generation was up year-on-y

92、ear in early 2024 as electricity demand grew across all sectors again aided in part by the recovery effect and hydro production remained well below average levels as a result of drought conditions during 2023.Although coal reaped a large part of these thermal power gains,gas-fired power generation w

93、as up by nearly 18%y-o-y in Q1.However,spring rains in the south of the country(where most hydro generation is concentrated)started early and were above average,helping boost hydro reservoirs and production levels in Q2.Combined with a renewables boost from record capacity additions in 2023,this cou

94、ld partially ease thermal generation growth during the summer months.Gas Market Report,Q3-2024 PAGE|21 Gas market update IEA.CC BY 4.0.Chinese gas supply has kept up the pace on all fronts since the start of the year.Domestic production growth over the first five months of the year,although slightly

95、 lower than in previous years,remained high at around 5%y-o-y.Total pipeline gas imports grew by around 17%over the same period,as imports from Central Asia were back to normal levels after a weak Q1 2023,and imports from Russia stepped up to levels consistent with an annual contractual level of 30

96、bcm in 2024(up from slightly less than 23 bcm delivered in 2023).Chinese LNG imports were up by a striking 18%(or 8 bcm)y-o-y in H1 2024,with growth reaching above 25%y-o-y in certain months.While the low spot LNG price environment favoured a degree of increased spot purchases,most of this upside wa

97、s enabled by new long-term contracts coming into effect this year.Looking ahead,China is set to import a record amount of LNG in 2024,surpassing its 2021 high point.Strong growth in early 2024 and upward revisions to full-year economic forecasts suggest that Chinese gas demand growth could reach 8%i

98、n 2024,about 1 percentage point higher than in 2023 up from previous expectations of a 1 percentage point decline in growth.Industry remains a key driver in the outlook,although conflicting manufacturing activity indicators in Q2 and uncertain expectations for the construction sector and overall ind

99、ustrial activity growth remain potential downside risks to the outlook.Residential and commercial gas demand growth is expected to remain on par with the 2023 trajectory at around 8%,while power sector gas burn is likely to keep growing at over 6%,benefiting from power demand growth.Japans gas deman

100、d in the first four months of 2024 increased by 1%compared with the same period in 2023.Gas consumption was lower in January than the same period in 2023 due to mild weather.Conversely,gas demand saw an increase in March,particularly in the residential and commercial sectors,due to cold weather.Comp

101、ared with 2023,total residential and commercial demand in March 2024 was 5%higher.While nuclear power generation increased by 16%y-o-y in the first three months of 2024,gas-fired power generation increased by 4%y-o-y.In March gas-fired power generation increased by around 20%y-o-y.For the full year

102、2024,Japans natural gas demand is expected to decrease by 1%,driven by the power generation sector given increasing nuclear availability and renewable power generation.Further nuclear power plants are in the process of restarting,such as Onawaga 2,which is projected to restart in 2024.Industrial dem

103、and is assumed to be marginally lower than in 2023.While showing a temporary upward trend in March,residential and commercial demand is assumed to remain broadly flat for the full year.Koreas gas demand increased by 6%year-on-year in Q1 2024.Cold weather in March was one of the factors increasing ga

104、s demand,although mild temperatures in January and February reduced gas demand in the residential and commercial sectors.A Gas Market Report,Q3-2024 PAGE|22 Gas market update IEA.CC BY 4.0.new nuclear power plant,Shin Hanul 2,started commercial operation in April,potentially reducing gas demand in t

105、he power generation sector.Total natural gas demand in Korea is projected to decrease by 2%year-on-year in 2024.The main reason is the decline in the power generation sector.It is assumed that additional nuclear and renewable power generation will reduce gas-fired power generation.Conversely,industr

106、ial demand is expected to increase compared to last year.Residential and commercial demand is assumed to remain at the same low level as in 2023.The increase in industrial demand is not expected to offset the decline in the power generation sector and total gas consumption is assumed to decrease.Acc

107、ording to the Petroleum Planning&Analysis Cell,Indias primary gas supply(including net domestic production and LNG imports)rose by an estimated 10%y-o-y during the first five months of 2024,continuing the recovery trend that began in 2023(with a 7%increase for 2023 as a whole).This increase in suppl

108、y was supported by an estimated 8%growth in domestic production,and above all thanks to an estimated 11%surge in LNG imports for the first five months of 2024.Over the first five months of 2024,the fertiliser sector maintained its dominant share of 28%of Indian demand,followed by city gas(20%),power

109、 generation(14%)and refining(9%).Gas demand increased by 21%y-o-y over this period.In absolute terms,the sectors that contributed most to the increase were refineries,the power sector and city gas distribution.As with other countries in South Asia,India experienced extreme heat and record temperatur

110、es in April and May,resulting in increased electricity consumption for cooling and placing a considerable stress on the power supply infrastructure.Although the proportion of natural gas in the Indian electricity mix is relatively low(2-3%),the countrys gas-fired power generation has increased signi

111、ficantly in recent months.According to data from Grid India,the amount of gas-fired power generated in April and May was more than double that of the same period last year.In addition to the high demand for cooling during the heatwave,this was also partly due to the invocation of an emergency clause

112、 to force the operation of idle gas-fired power plants.The objective of this clause was to avoid power cuts during the 43-day federal elections that ended on 28 May.Indias LNG imports reached a new record of 3.3 bcm in May,up 23%m-o-m,with equivalent contributions from spot and contract purchases.Wh

113、ile Indias LNG imports have largely been met by Qatar(representing 45%of total LNG imports in the five first months of 2024),the y-o-y supply increase originated mainly from Angola and the United States.Current LNG import facilities in India have a combined capacity of about 65 bcm per year.Indias e

114、ighth LNG import facility,the Chhara LNG terminal,has been built by Hindustan Petroleum Gas Market Report,Q3-2024 PAGE|23 Gas market update IEA.CC BY 4.0.Corporation Limited,a unit of state-owned ONGC,and will add another 7 bcm per year to the countrys regasification capacity.The terminals commissio

115、ning has been postponed until the fourth quarter of 2024 due to delays in the completion of the pipeline and the onset of the monsoon season.For the full year of 2024,Indias natural gas demand is expected to increase by 8.5%,primarily driven by higher gas use in the power sector and in industry.LNG

116、imports into India are expected to increase by 17%in 2024.Emerging Asias gas consumption increased by an estimated 6%y-o-y in H1 2024,as lower LNG prices continued to support demand growth in the regions price-sensitive end-use sectors.Natural gas consumption in Thailand grew by an impressive 9%(or

117、1.2 bcm)y-o-y in the first four months of 2024.This was primarily driven by soaring gas-to-power demand,which rose by over 15%(or 1.2 bcm)y-o-y during the same period.Industrial gas demand remained broadly flat,while gas use in the transport sector declined by 15%(or 0.1 bcm)y-o-y.Combined natural g

118、as demand in Bangladesh and Pakistan increased by an estimated 1%y-o-y in H1 2024.The strong increase in LNG imports(up by 14%y-o-y)was sufficient to offset the decline in domestic production and met demand growth primarily in the industrial sector.Indonesias gas demand grew by near 5%(or 0.6 bcm)y-

119、o-y in the first four months of 2024,primarily driven by the power and industrial sectors.In Malaysia natural gas demand increased by an estimated 14%(or 1.8 bcm)y-o-y in the first four months of 2024,supported by strong y-o-y growth of 10%in domestic production during this period.Natural gas demand

120、 in emerging Asia is forecast to increase by close to 4%in 2024,primarily driven by the power and industrial sectors.Gas Market Report,Q3-2024 PAGE|24 Gas market update IEA.CC BY 4.0.China and India drove Asias gas demand growth in H1 2024 IEA.CC BY 4.0.*Others comprise Bangladesh,Indonesia,Malaysia

121、,Pakistan,the Philippines,Singapore and Thailand.Sources:IEA analysis based on ICIS(2024),ICIS LNG Edge;CQPGX(2024),Nanbin Observation;JODI(2024),Gas World Database;PPAC(2024),Gas Consumption;EPPO(2024),Energy Statistics;Korea Energy Economics Institute(2024),Monthly Energy Statistics;Ministry of Ec

122、onomy,Trade and Industry of Japan(2024),METI Statistics.-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%-40-30-20-100 10 20 30 402020H12020H22021H12021H22022H12022H22023H12023H22024H1Y-o-y change in%Y-o-y change in bcmChinaJapanKoreaIndiaOthers*Y-o-y changeEstimated y-o-y change in semi-annual natural gas demand,Asia,2021-202

123、4 Gas Market Report,Q3-2024 PAGE|25 Gas market update IEA.CC BY 4.0.European natural gas demand continued to decline in H1 2024 Natural gas consumption in OECD Europe fell by 3.5%(or 9 bcm)y-o-y in H1 2024.The power sector remained the most important driver behind lower gas demand,as the strong expa

124、nsion of renewables together with improving nuclear availability reduced the call on gas-fired power plants both in Q1 and Q2.Mild winter weather limited gas demand in the residential and commercial sectors in Q1.In contrast,gas use in the industrial sector continued to recover,supported by the lowe

125、r price environment.Distribution network-related demand fell by an estimated 4%(or 4 bcm)y-o-y in H1 2024,with 70%of the decline concentrated in Q1.Heating degree days declined by 8%y-o-y in Q1 2024,which naturally weighed on space heating requirements in buildings.Preliminary data suggest that heat

126、ing intensity(gas use per heating degree day)increased marginally compared with 2023.This potentially indicates that the gas-saving measures undertaken in the previous two years are gradually wearing off and highlights the importance of doubling down on energy efficiency efforts.Gas-to-power demand

127、plummeted by 19%(or near 13 bcm)y-o-y in H1 2024.In the European Union the share of natural gas in total power generation fell to 12%in April 2024 its lowest share in at least eight years.The steep decline in gas-fired power output was primarily driven by a strong increase in renewable electricity g

128、eneration,which grew by more than 15%(or 105 TWh)y-o-y in H1 2024 on the back of higher wind,solar and hydropower output.In addition,improving nuclear availability(up by 2%)further weighed on overall fossil-fuelled power generation,which declined by close to 19%y-o-y in H1 2024.Without the strong in

129、crease in renewable power output,Europes gas balance would have been significantly tighter in H1 2024 and could have fuelled more price volatility across European gas hubs.Natural gas consumption in industry continued to recover in H1 2024,benefiting from the lower price environment.Preliminary data

130、 indicate that gas use in industry increased by around 10%(or 8 bcm)y-o-y in H1 2024,albeit remaining 10%below its 2021 levels.Estimated industrial gas consumption increased by 18%in the Netherlands,12%y-o-y in Belgium,4%in Spain and 1.5%in Italy in H1 2024.This forecast expects natural gas demand i

131、n OECD Europe to remain close to last years levels in 2024,as higher gas use in buildings and industry is almost entirely offset by lower gas-fired power generation.Gas burn in the power sector is forecast to drop by more than 10%amid the rapid expansion of renewables and improving nuclear availabil

132、ity in France.Gas demand in the residential and commercial sectors is expected to increase marginally compared with 2023 following a mild Q1.Gas use in industry is forecast to continue its recovery,although it is largely dependent on the evolution of prices and remains well below its pre-crisis leve

133、ls.Gas Market Report,Q3-2024 PAGE|26 Gas market update IEA.CC BY 4.0.primarily driven by plummeting gas burn in the power sector IEA.CC BY 4.0.Sources:IEA analysis based on Enagas(2024),Natural Gas Demand;ENTSOG(2024),Transparency Platform;EPIAS(2024),Transparency Platform;Trading Hub Europe(2024),A

134、ggregated consumption.-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%-40-30-20-100 10 20 30 402020H12020H22021H12021H22022H12022H22023H12023H22024H1Y-o-y change in%Y-o-y change in bcmResidential and commercialPowerIndustryY-o-y changeEstimated y-o-y change in semi-annual natural gas demand,OECD Europe,2021-2024

135、 Gas Market Report,Q3-2024 PAGE|27 Gas market update IEA.CC BY 4.0.US production lifted by associated gas in H1 2024,but the rest of 2024 is set for slight declineUS dry natural gas production dynamics during H1 2024 went hand-in-hand with significant gas price variations,rounding out a transition f

136、rom continuous growth to more stable output levels.This trend is set to continue for the rest of 2024 as upstream players adjust to the pricing context and the US market sets itself up for the next cycle of LNG export growth in the second half of the decade.In early 2024 dry gas production slipped c

137、onsiderably from the peak monthly levels reached in late 2023,responding to weaker market fundamentals namely modest weather-related domestic demand and month-on-month declines in LNG exports due to key plant outages and the resulting steep price slide.As Henry Hub spot prices fell from an average o

138、f nearly USD 3.20/MBtu in January 2024 to under USD 1.50/MBtu in March 2024,upstream activity eased as some producers announced CAPEX cuts.Although down by 2.5%from Q4 2023 levels,Q1 2024 dry gas production was still approximately 2.9%higher y-o-y,notably thanks to much stronger February production

139、following shorter-lived weather-induced production outages than in recent years.Robust oil production also kept associated gas production up,notably in the Permian Basin where gas production growth was close to 15%y-o-y in Q1,compensating for most of the losses in other shale plays.In May 2024 Henry

140、 Hub spot prices rose steeply,gaining around 30%in just one month.Nevertheless,overall Q2 2024 gas production fell quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year as upstream activity took time to react given remaining bearish market factors.Above-average storage fill levels,the closing of the heating season,an

141、d a 16%y-o-y drop in Mays US LNG exports(following outages at key plants)contributed to keeping demand-side pressures at bay through the spring months.Taken together,these elements helped keep production gains in check over the first half of the year.Total production growth in H1 2024 reached just 1

142、%y-o-y,far lower than the 5-6%growth rates experienced over the same period in the previous two years.In H2 2024 we expect US gas production dynamics to face an inflection point.While production trended down from early Q1 to late Q2,output is set to slightly recover over H2 2024,while staying down y

143、ear-on-year over the period.Although associated gas production in the Permian Basin is likely to continue driving the upward trend over H2 2024,a more favourable domestic gas price environment should also support non-associated production.Domestic demand growth although modest and LNG project start-

144、ups in H2 2024 are expected to support the transition to a more dynamic market environment.Nevertheless,gas production over the second half of the year is set to remain approximately 1%down from record H2 2023 levels,leaving the full-year 2024 gas production outlook broadly flat on 2023 levels.Gas M

145、arket Report,Q3-2024 PAGE|28 Gas market update IEA.CC BY 4.0.US dry gas production growth turned negative in Q2 2024 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Note:June includes estimated data.Sources:IEA analysis based on EIA(2024),Natural Gas Data,Natural Gas Weekly Update.Y-o-y change in monthly dry gas production,United St

146、ates,2022-2024 Gas Market Report,Q3-2024 PAGE|29 Gas market update IEA.CC BY 4.0.Eurasian natural gas production is set to increase in 2024Eurasias natural gas production declined by an estimated 13%(or 130 bcm)between 2021 and 2023.This steep decline was primarily driven by Russia and its collapsin

147、g piped gas deliveries to Europe,and to a lesser extent by deteriorating upstream deliverability in Uzbekistan.Preliminary data indicate that the regions gas output started to recover in H1 2024,increasing by 6%(or 25 bcm)y-o-y,supported by a combination of stronger domestic demand and higher export

148、s.Russias natural gas production plummeted by 15%(or 125 bcm)between 2021 and 2023.Lower piped gas exports to Europe accounted for around 95%of this steep decline.Gazprom,as Russias monopoly pipeline exporter,bore the brunt of this steep reduction in output.The companys gas production fell by 30%(or

149、 155 bcm)between 2021 and 2023,while both Novatek and Rosneft increased their production levels.First data suggest that Russias natural gas production grew by over 7%y-o-y in H1 2024.Almost 40%of this growth was supported by stronger exports,both via pipeline and in the form of LNG.Russias piped gas

150、 exports to China via Power of Siberia grew by an estimated 35%y-o-y in H1 2024,with total deliveries for the full year expected to reach over 30 bcm.Piped supplies to Europe rose by over 5%y-o-y in H1 2024,supported by higher deliveries both to the European Union and to Trkiye.In addition,Russia in

151、creased its piped gas exports to Uzbekistan,supplying the country with around 9 mcm/d starting from 1 October 2023.Russias LNG output increased by close to 10%(or 2 bcm)y-o-y in H1 2024,with Asia accounting for almost half of total Russian LNG exports.Gas deliveries to the domestic market increased

152、by an estimated 5.5%(or near 15 bcm)y-o-y.This was partly supported by a colder-than-average Q1,which drove up space heating requirements,and stronger thermal power generation(up by 2%y-o-y in the first five months of 2024).Natural gas production displayed varying patterns across Central Asian count

153、ries.First estimates indicate that the region increased its piped gas deliveries to China,primarily driven by higher output in Turkmenistan.In contrast,natural gas production in Uzbekistan declined by 5%(or 1 bcm)y-o-y in the first five months of 2024,reflecting the deteriorating upstream deliverabi

154、lity in the country.This trend is expected to increase the countrys reliance on imports(including from Russia)in the future.In Kazakhstan estimated sales gas production grew by 4%(or 0.5 bcm)y-o-y during January-May 2024.In Azerbaijan sales gas production grew by 4%(or 0.6 bcm)y-o-y in the first fiv

155、e months of 2024.This was partly supported by higher deliveries to Europe,which increased by 4%(0.4 bcm)y-o-y during the same period of the year.This forecast expects Eurasias gas production to increase by 4%in 2024,albeit remaining 10%below its 2021 levels.Russia is projected to account for the bul

156、k of growth in 2024,with higher gas production supported both by domestic demand and exports.Gas Market Report,Q3-2024 PAGE|30 Gas market update IEA.CC BY 4.0.Russias natural gas production grew by an estimated 7%in H1 2024,driven both by stronger exports and higher domestic demand IEA.CC BY 4.0.Sou

157、rces:IEA analysis based on various sources,including ENTSOG(2024),Transparency Platform;Eurostat(2024),Energy Statistics;ICIS(2024),LNG Edge.Estimated y-o-y change in natural gas production,exports and deliveries to the domestic market,Russia,H1 2024 vs H1 2023 0 5 10 15 20 25Domestic production Pip

158、ed exports to ChinaPiped exports toEuropePiped exports toCentral Asia andBelarusLNG exportsDeliveries to thedomestic marketY-o-y change in bcm Gas Market Report,Q3-2024 PAGE|31 Gas market update IEA.CC BY 4.0.Europes primary natural gas supply tightened in H1 2024OECD Europes primary natural gas sup

159、ply fell by an estimated 6%(or almost 15 bcm)y-o-y in H1 2024,as lower gas demand and high storage levels reduced the call on LNG imports while the regions domestic production continued to decline.Europes LNG imports declined by nearly 20%(or just over 17 bcm)y-o-y in H1 2024.The continued decline i

160、n demand,together with high inventory levels and stronger piped gas deliveries,kept European hub prices below Asian spot LNG prices in H1 2024.Platts JKM averaged almost USD 1/MBtu above TTF in the first half of the year,which incentivised flexible LNG cargoes to flow towards Asia instead of Europe.

161、Consequently,the share of LNG in Europes total primary gas supply fell from 39%in H1 2023 to 33%during the same period of 2024.Nevertheless,LNG retained its position as Europes dominant source of primary gas supply and continued to act as a baseload.LNG flows from the United States declined less ste

162、eply(down by 15%y-o-y)than from other sources.This further reinforced the position of the United States as Europes largest LNG supplier,accounting for nearly half of Europes LNG imports in H1 2024.Russian LNG inflows rose by 9%y-o-y and remain highly concentrated.Belgium,France and Spain accounted f

163、or more than 85%of Europes total LNG imports from Russia in H1 2024.Norways piped gas deliveries to the rest of Europe increased by nearly 10%(or 5 bcm)y-o-y compared to H1 2023 amid lower maintenance works.Non-Norwegian domestic production fell by around 6.5%(or 2 bcm)y-o-y in the first five months

164、 of 2024.This decline was primarily driven by Netherlands and the United Kingdom,as the closure of the Groningen field and the continued fall in output from ageing North Sea gas fields weighed on production levels.In Denmark the Tyra gas field started to flow first gas at the end of Q1 2024,and is e

165、xpected to ramp up to full production in Q4.In Trkiye natural gas production rose by 290%(or 0.55 bcm)y-o-y in the first five months of 2024,primarily supported by the gradual ramp-up of the Sakarya gas field.Russias piped gas supplies to Europe increased by an estimated 7%(or 1.5 bcm)y-o-y in H1 20

166、24,albeit remaining 75%below their 2021 levels.Deliveries to the European Union increased by over 10%(or more than 1 bcm).Exports to Trkiye rose by 2.5%y-o-y in the first five months of 2024.Despite this increase,the share of Russian piped gas in Europes gas demand remained below 10%in H1 2024.Pipel

167、ine gas deliveries from North Africa and Azerbaijan remained close to last years levels in H1 2024.This forecast foresees Russian piped gas supplies to OECD Europe increasing by more than 5%in 2024 compared with 2023,although their profile remains a major uncertainty.LNG imports are expected to decl

168、ine by almost 10%amid high inventory levels,weak demand and stronger piped gas deliveries.Gas Market Report,Q3-2024 PAGE|32 Gas market update IEA.CC BY 4.0.with the regions LNG imports plummeting by nearly 20%IEA.CC BY 4.0.Sources:IEA analysis based on ENTSOG(2024),Transparency Platform;Eurostat(202

169、4),Energy Statistics;Gas Transmission System Operator of Ukraine(2024),Transparency Platform;ICIS LNG Edge;JODI(2024),Gas World Database.-20-100 10 20Norway-pipeline flowsRussia-pipeline flowsOthers-pipeline flowsLNGY-o-y change in bcmUnited StatesOthersY-o-y change in natural gas imports and delive

170、ries from Norway,OECD Europe,H1 2024 vs H1 2023 Gas Market Report,Q3-2024 PAGE|33 Gas market update IEA.CC BY 4.0.LNG supply growth was hit by outages in H1 2024,but is set to accelerate in H2 2024LNG market dynamics in H1 2024 demonstrated the uncertainty underlying the global gas balance in the ru

171、n-up to the next wave of liquefaction capacity expected in the second half of the decade.While LNG supply grew by about 4.5%in Q1 2024,Q2 supply fell marginally y-o-y the first quarterly drop since the Covid period as a result of targeted underperformance,reducing H1 2024 growth to 2.3%.Demand-side

172、trends,however,proved to be more constant than supply-side movements,as Europes pull on LNG continued to ease in Q2 2024 and Asia confirmed its import growth path.The Asia Pacific region was the largest contributor to year-on-year LNG export growth during H1 2024,with incremental volumes spread acro

173、ss nearly all exporting markets in the region.Brunei and Malaysia two markets facing a degree of uncertainty around feedgas availability both increased their exports year-on-year during the period.Indonesian exports returned to growth in Q2,after falling by 11%y-o-y in Q1 due to planned and unplanne

174、d works at Tangguh LNG(the countrys largest liquefaction project).This led to 8%growth for the whole of H1 2024.In total,APAC exports grew by 2.6%(or 2.4 bcm)over the first half of the year.At the individual market scale,two countries delivered the largest incremental gains in H1 2024,together accou

175、nting for nearly 70%of net y-o-y incremental LNG supply:the United States and Russia.US LNG supply leaped in Q1 notably with the return of Freeport LNG but then declined by nearly 3%year-on-year in Q2 as operational issues continued to plague the Freeport facility on top of planned debottlenecking w

176、orks.US LNG exports in May fell by 16%as a result of this underperformance,before returning to growth in June.Despite these outages,US LNG supply was up 4%(or 2.4 bcm)y-o-y in H1 2024.Russian LNG exports were up 9%(or 2 bcm)y-o-y in H1 2024 and broadly on a par with recent monthly maximum levels for

177、 the period(except at the tail end of Q2 as Sakhalin 2 maintenance kept the plants output below 2023 levels).The countrys largest facility Yamal LNG was the primary growth driver,although small-scale projects also contributed to export gains.Middle Eastern LNG supply was up by 1.8%(or 1.2 bcm),thank

178、s primarily to a boost in exports from the United Arab Emirates,the regions smallest producer.At a regional scale,Africa was the only continent to see a decline in exports,hinging on a drastic fall in Egyptian supply.Declining gas production and relatively robust domestic demand led to load-shedding

179、,industrial curtailments and,ultimately,a steep cutback in LNG exports,even as pipeline gas imports from Israel improved substantially in Q1.In H1 2024 Egypts LNG exports fell by 75%(or 3 bcm)y-o-y as the country loaded fewer than 10 cargoes.Simultaneously,Egypt also turned to LNG imports through th

180、e Aqaba FLNG terminal in Jordan made available to Egypt thanks to a 2023 bilateral agreement taking in four cargoes in Q2 2024.Gas Market Report,Q3-2024 PAGE|34 Gas market update IEA.CC BY 4.0.However,bearish dynamics in Egypt were partially offset,notably by export growth in H1 from Mozambique(up b

181、y 48%y-o-y),with the ramp-up from Coral South FLNG,and Algeria(up by 5%y-o-y),as output from new upstream projects helped support stronger exports and lower LNG spot prices led to increased buying interest from European players.Upside from Nigeria(up by 3%y-o-y)was more modest as June exports fell s

182、ignificantly,undoing the effects of positive feedgas dynamics earlier in the year.In total,African LNG exports fell by about 6%y-o-y(or 2 bcm)in H1 2024.On the import side,regional dynamics were somewhat more stable and clear-cut,with the continuation of high-level trends that had been in place duri

183、ng much of 2023.European LNG imports fell by 19%y-o-y(or 17 bcm)in H1 2024,with the downward trend accelerating in the spring months.The United Kingdom,Spain and Trkiye were the largest downside markets,taking in 58%,23%and 30%less LNG year-on-year,respectively.In the United Kingdom alone,this meant

184、 8 bcm less imports during H1 2024,as high electricity imports and wind generation squeezed power sector gas burn.The reduction in LNG imports was less pronounced in the European Union,reaching only around 9%in H1.As with Spain,a number of Mediterranean and Northwest European markets took in less LN

185、G.Northern Europe was the only sub-region to take in slightly more LNG.This was largely due to a six-month shutdown of the damaged Balticconnector pipeline(early October 2023 to late April 2024)leading Finland to grow its LNG imports,as well as to a Q1 y-o-y jump in German imports.Conversely,Asia Pa

186、cific pulled in the vast majority of released and new volumes,accounting for 90%of the gross upside at a regional level.All Asian markets netted LNG import growth in H1 2024,including Japan and Korea.China remained the single largest growth market globally,with an 18%(or 8 bcm)y-o-y increase in H1 2

187、024,setting the country on a trajectory to noticeably surpass its 2021 annual LNG import record.India,the second-largest upside market globally,proved reactive to the low LNG spot price environment in H1 2024,taking in 31%(or 4 bcm)more LNG y-o-y.Favourable prices also boosted spot buying in a numbe

188、r of smaller emerging Asian importers.Imports into Thailand and Singapore both grew by over 1 bcm y-o-y,with imports into the Philippines and Pakistan each growing by just under 1 bcm significant y-o-y proportional increments.In total,small and emerging Asian market LNG imports grew by about 26%(or

189、4 bcm)y-o-y.In Korea milder weather particularly in February pulled LNG imports down in Q1.However,a subsequent y-o-y increase in imports in Q2 saw H1 2024 imports grow by about 2.5%y-o-y.Similar dynamics were at play in Japan,with lower Q1 imports being offset by y-o-y growth in Q2 as warm weather

190、drove power sector gas burn.As a result,in H1 2024 its LNG imports were up by 1.4%(or about 0.6 bcm).Outside Asia,Colombia and Brazil were high growth markets as drought conditions worsened hydro output and drove up power sector gas burn.Together,these two markets took in an extra 2 bcm of LNG,equat

191、ing to nearly 300%growth year-on-year.Gas Market Report,Q3-2024 PAGE|35 Gas market update IEA.CC BY 4.0.Year-on-year LNG market growth is expected to accelerate slightly during the second half of 2024,thanks to a combination of new capacity coming online and stable operations in a number of smaller

192、and medium-size exporting markets.On the demand side,Asias pull on the market is set to remain strong,but with less potential for some markets in the region to realise the same double-digit growth as in the first half of the year.Likewise,bearish dynamics in Europe are likely to be less severe than

193、in H1 2024,as low benchmark summer demand and normal weather assumptions later in the year limit the LNG import downside potential.The United States is set to provide the lions share of new export capacity this year,with a mix of expansions at existing plants and new plants coming online.Part of the

194、 extended outages at Freeport LNG in Q2 2024 were linked to debottlenecking works,aiming to increase liquefaction capacity by about 10%.The results should be felt over the second half of the year as the project returns to normal utilisation rates.In late April 2024 Venture Global announced that LNG

195、production at its 18 bcm Plaquemines LNG Phase 1 project would start in mid-2024 as part of its commissioning process,ahead of previous market expectations for later in the year.Similarly,the Stage 3 expansion at Corpus Christi is now expected to achieve first gas by the end of the year,also ahead o

196、f schedule.Outside the United States,the Tortue FLNG plant off the coast of Senegal and Mauritania is expected to come online in Q4 2024,later than originally planned.Tango FLNG,while of much smaller scale,is also expected to ramp up over the second half of the year,having started operations in Q1 2

197、024.A number of existing projects will also support the supply side,including in Nigeria,where utilisation rates are expected to remain higher year-on-year;in Mozambique,where Coral South production is expected to stabilise after a ramp-up period in 2023;and Indonesia,with the ramp-up of Tangguh Tra

198、in 3.In Asia,China continues to drive y-o-y global import growth,but this is likely to be at lower rates than in H1 2024.Still,full-year Chinese LNG imports are set to surpass their 2021 high point,reaching around 109 bcm in 2024.Accompanying this growth,the country is expected to add an impressive

199、45 bcm/yr of regasification capacity in 2024,an increase of about 30%y-o-y.In India continued spot buying during the rest of the year is set to push 2024 imports to within striking distance of the 2020 record high of approximately 37 bcm.Smaller Asian markets,including Bangladesh,Pakistan,Singapore

200、and Thailand,are set for double-digit import growth this year.In total,emerging Asian gas markets are set to grow by around 17%y-o-y,adding over 8 bcm of LNG demand.Europe,in contrast,is expected to pare back its LNG imports by close to 10%y-o-y,although the vast majority of this decline has already

201、 happened in the first half of the year.Globally,we expect the LNG market to grow by just under 3%y-o-y,or about 15 bcm,representing a notable acceleration on 2023 dynamics.Gas Market Report,Q3-2024 PAGE|36 Gas market update IEA.CC BY 4.0.Europe continues to reduce its LNG intake as Asia absorbs bot

202、h relinquished and new volumes IEA.CC BY 4.0.Sources:IEA analysis based on ICIS(2024),ICIS LNG Edge.Y-o-y change in LNG imports and exports by region,2024 vs 2023 Gas Market Report,Q3-2024 PAGE|37 Gas market update IEA.CC BY 4.0.Qatars LNG fleet expansion programme saw major deals in H1 2024 Since 2

203、022 Qatar has signed a series of time charter party(TCP)agreements for the long-term charter and operation of LNG carriers.These agreements form part of a historic LNG fleet expansion programme designed to support the planned expansion of LNG production capacity from the North Field in Qatar and Gol

204、den Pass in the United States,while also meeting long-term fleet replacement requirements.This ambitious undertaking represents the largest shipbuilding and leasing initiative in the history of the LNG industry.The first half of 2024 witnessed the conclusion of significant agreements.In March 2024 Q

205、atar signed long-term TCP agreements with four international shipowners for the operation of 19 new,ultra-modern conventional-sized LNG vessels.These 19 LNG vessels will be built by South Korean shipyards and will have a capacity of 174 000 m3 of LNG each,equipped with the latest LNG propulsion and

206、shipping technologies to achieve optimal fuel efficiency,boil-off gas management and low carbon emissions.This marked the conclusion of the conventional-sized vessels portion of the expansion programme,bringing the total number of conventional LNG vessels for which Qatar has signed TCP agreements fo

207、r the forthcoming years to 104.In April 2024 Qatar and China State Shipbuilding Corporation placed an order for 18 of the worlds largest LNG carriers,QC-Max class LNG vessels with a capacity of 271 000 m3 of LNG in five tanks,for a total value of nearly USD 6 billion.This is possibly the largest sin

208、gle LNG vessel order and one of the largest ever placed in the LNG shipbuilding industry.Eight of these 18 QC-Max size LNG vessels are due to be delivered in 2028 and 2029,while the other ten are to be delivered in 2030 and 2031.In the mid-2000s Qatar opened the door to giant LNG carriers,with the i

209、ntroduction of Qflex(with a capacity of 210 000 m3 of LNG)and Qmax(266 000 m3 of LNG),which were well above the standard 150 000 m3 vessels at the time.Liquefaction terminals in Qatar were specifically designed to accommodate these large carriers,with the benefit of their size being lower energy req

210、uirements due to economies of scale on engine efficiency.Qatar has formulated a transition strategy from the deployment of large LNG vessels to that of more standardised vessels.The objective is to achieve full market coverage for LNG by 2030,with no limitations due to port compatibility constraints

211、.At a global level,the number of active standard-sized LNG carriers(over 30 000 m3 of LNG)at the end of 2023 was over 700,according to the latest GIIGNL 2024 report.By 2026 the global fleet of LNG carriers is forecast to grow by 40%and exceed more than 1 000 vessels,propelled by the addition of clos

212、e to 300 newbuilds on order.Gas Market Report,Q3-2024 PAGE|38 Gas market update IEA.CC BY 4.0.Qatars LNG carrier fleet is expected to reach over 120 modern vessels by 2030 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Source:IEA analysis based on Qatars public announcements.54691220 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180201020202030QC Ma

213、x(271 000 m3)Qmax(266 000 m3)Qflex(210 000-215 000 m3)Conventional(135 000-170 000 m3)ForecastEstimated number of chartered LNG carriers in Qatars fleet by year Gas Market Report,Q3-2024 PAGE|39 Gas market update IEA.CC BY 4.0.Natural gas prices recorded strong gains across all key markets in Q2 202

214、4Natural gas prices strengthened across all key markets in Q2 2024 compared to the previous quarter.Tighter supplydemand fundamentals together with geopolitical uncertainties provided upward pressure on spot prices.Lower LNG supply combined with strong Asian demand growth tightened the global gas ba

215、lance,while uncertainties re-emerged around Russian piped gas supplies to Europe.In Europe TTF spot prices rose by 15%on the quarter to an average of USD 10/MBtu in Q2 2024 more than double their Q2 averages for the 2016-2020 period.Lower LNG inflows(down by almost 20%y-o-y),unplanned outages in Nor

216、way and renewed uncertainties around Russian piped gas flows all provided upward pressure on prices.On 20 May OMV notified market participants that its Russian piped gas imports could be halted for legal reasons.TTF month-ahead prices rose by near 15%to above USD 11/MBtu in the days following the an

217、nouncement their highest price level since late December 2023.Unplanned outages in Norway fuelled additional short-term price variability in early June.Historic volatility on TTF month-ahead prices averaged 53%in Q2 2024,remaining almost 50%above the Q2 average volatility displayed in the 2011-2021

218、period.This relatively high level of volatility reflects a still tight global gas balance and the markets nervousness amid geopolitical tensions.In Asia Platts JKM prices followed a similar trajectory and rose by 20%on the quarter to an average of USD 11/MBtu in Q2 2024 more than double their Q2 ave

219、rages in the 2016-2020 period.Strong demand growth,sizzling heatwaves and weak LNG supply growth provided upward pressure on Asian spot prices.The JKM premium over TTF more than doubled from USD 0.6/MBtu in Q1 to USD 1.3/MBtu in Q2 2024,driving LNG cargoes away from Europe.While Asias LNG imports gr

220、ew by 13%y-o-y,Europes declined by more than 25%y-o-y in Q2 2024.In the United States Henry Hub prices recovered from their multi-decade lows,rising by 70%from an average of USD 1.50/MBtu in March to USD 2.50/MBtu in June.Production cuts by upstream players combined with a strong increase in gas-fir

221、ed power generation and higher exports(both piped and LNG)provided upward support to gas prices.On average,Henry Hub prices stood at USD 2.10/MBtu in Q2,close to their 2023 levels.Forward curves as of the beginning of July 2024 suggest that TTF is set to average 20%below its 2023 levels in 2024 at a

222、round USD 10.5/MBtu.According to forward curves,Asian spot LNG prices retain their premium over European hub prices in 2024,with JKM averaging USD 1/MBtu above TTF.This should support higher LNG flows towards the Asian markets.Based on forward curves,Henry Hub prices in the United States are set to

223、remain close to their 2023 levels and average USD 2.40/MBtu in 2024.Gas Market Report,Q3-2024 PAGE|40 Gas market update IEA.CC BY 4.0.Asian spot LNG prices are expected to retain their premium over TTF in H2 2024 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Note:Future prices are based on forward curves as of the beginning of Jul

224、y and do not represent a price forecast.Sources:IEA analysis based on CME Group(2024),Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures Quotes,Dutch TTF Natural Gas Month Futures Settlements,LNG Japan/Korea Marker(Platts)Futures Settlements;EIA(2024),Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price;Powernext(2024),Spot Market Data;S&P

225、 Global(2024),Platts Connect.0 20 40 60Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4202220232024USD/MBtuTTFHenry HubPlatts JKMMain spot and forward natural gas prices,2022-2024 Gas Market Report,Q3-2024 PAGE|41 Gas market update IEA.CC BY 4.0.Soft demand and stable supply set storage inventories on a robust filling traj

226、ectory in 2024Natural gas storage levels in key markets emerged from winter 2023/24 well above recent average levels,particularly in the United States and Europe where end-of-winter stocks were above the five-year historical range.Given the favourable start to the filling season,storage injections w

227、ere below average in Q2 2024,and injection requirements are expected to remain below 2023 levels during the rest of the year.EU underground gas storage levels closed the winter at a record high,approximately 45%(or 19 bcm)higher than the five-year average and 6%(or 3.5 bcm)above 2023 levels the prev

228、ious end-of-March high point.By mid-April low demand and stable supply stretched the year-on-year storage surplus to about 6 bcm.However,injections dipped as a result of a late-April cold spell,and subsequently remained below 2023 rates until the tail end of Q2.Over the entire quarter,20 bcm was inj

229、ected into storage sites,about 14%(or 3 bcm)less than in 2023.By early July EU storage levels were tracking broadly on a par with last years levels,still 16%above the five-year average and in a robust position to reach the 90%fill target by the start of the heating season.Ukrainian gas storage sites

230、 ended the winter with about 27%less gas in store than in 2023,although subsequent injections had reduced the gap to 15%by late May.Still,Q2 injections were lower y-o-y,leaving a 1 bcm y-o-y gap by early July.Ukraines underground gas storage facilities could offer 10 bcm of capacity to European mark

231、et players over the upcoming winter.This leaves sizeable space for potential injections till the filling seasons end.In the United States storage fill also ended Q1 well above the five-year range.Volumes in store at the end of March were more than 20%above 2023 levels and 40%up on the five-year aver

232、age.While Q2 injections were lower y-o-y,storage fill remained above the five-year range.With only 18 bcm of injections in the rest of the filling season 30%less than last year US storage would achieve the 90%fill level reached ahead of winter 2023/24.However,injection rates are likely to act as a b

233、alancing factor for the US market in case of supply-or demand-side fluctuations.In the second half of 2024,gas production is expected to taper off y-o-y and LNG project start-ups to boost LNG exports a greater impact from either factor could act to slow injections for the rest of the filling season.

234、Combined LNG stocks in Japan and Korea closed 15%above the five-year average in March,but were 10%down on the 2023 multi-year end-of-winter high.Despite Korean LNG imports dropping y-o-y in Q1 2024,lower demand helped keep LNG stocks high and relatively flat over the period.In Japan LNG stocks start

235、ed the year toward the top of the five-year range,but had slid to the five-year average by the end of the winter on sustained heating demand.Higher LNG imports y-o-y over the spring months helped stocks regain an upward trajectory by the start of Q2.Gas Market Report,Q3-2024 PAGE|42 Gas market updat

236、e IEA.CC BY 4.0.Storage levels have tracked above recent averages and are likely to remain so ahead of winter IEA.CC BY 4.0.Sources:IEA analysis based on EIA(2024),Weekly Working Gas in Underground Storage;GIE(2024),AGSI+Database;IEA(2024),Monthly Gas Data Service;JODI(2024),Gas World Database.US un

237、derground storage inventories EU underground storage inventories Japan and Korea LNG stock iti Gas Market Report,Q3-2024 PAGE|43 Medium-term outlook for low-emissions gases IEA.CC BY 4.0.Medium-term outlook for low-emissions gases Gas Market Report,Q3-2024 PAGE|44 Medium-term outlook for low-emissio

238、ns gases IEA.CC BY 4.0.In the fast lane:The supply of low-emissions gases is set to more than double by 2027Low-emissions gases(including biomethane,low-emissions hydrogen2 and e-methane3)can play a crucial role in decarbonising gas supply chains and the broader energy system.Recognising their growi

239、ng importance,the International Energy Agency has developed a Low-emission Gases Work Programme to closely track market developments in this sphere and facilitate dialogue between emerging producers and consumers.This section provides a medium-term outlook for low-emissions gases.The deployment of l

240、ow-emissions gases is expected to accelerate over the medium term.The current forecast projects the supply of low-emissions gases to more than double by 2027,translating into an increase of almost 16 bcm in absolute terms.This represents a significant upward revision compared to last years medium-te

241、rm outlook and is reflective of growing policy support for low-emissions gases.Europe and North America are set to drive this expansion and to contribute over 70%of the overall growth.The development of low-emissions gases in these markets benefits from a wide range of policies,increasingly sophisti

242、cated subsidy schemes and well-developed interconnected gas networks.Nevertheless,further efforts are required to unleash the full potential of low-emissions gases and reach the ambitious targets set by governments.Besides Europe and North America,a number of emerging-market low-emissions gas produc

243、ers are expected to scale up their output,including Brazil,China and India.Biomethane production is projected to double(an increase of 8 bcm)between 2023 and 2027,and to account for just over half of the total increase in low-emissions gases during this period.Europe and North America are set to rem

244、ain the key drivers of this growth,scaling up their biomethane output by close to 85%(or 6.5 bcm)over the period.In addition,Brazil and India are emerging as important biomethane producers,with growth supported by subsidy schemes and demand-focused policy initiatives.Low-emissions hydrogen productio

245、n is projected to grow at an average rate of almost 50%per year between 2023 and 2027,translating into an incremental supply of 7 bcmeq by 2027.As with biomethane,Europe and North America are set to drive this growth,accounting for around 65%of the total increase.In contrast,e-methane developments a

246、re expected to remain limited over the medium term outlook.Given that e-methane is still in the early phase of development,international co-operation between producers and consumers is required to facilitate demonstration projects and develop viable business models.2 Low-emissions hydrogen includes

247、hydrogen produced via electrolysis where the electricity is generated from a low-emissions source(renewables or nuclear),biomass or fossil fuels with CCUS.3 E-methane refers to synthetic methane produced from electrolytic hydrogen.The definition of low-emissions synthetic methane used by the IEA for

248、 analytical purposes in its reports considers that any carbon inputs,e.g.from CO2,are not from fossil fuels or process emissions.Beyond this definition,a commercial proposition for carbon-neutral e-methane could consider the use of CO2 captured at industrial or power plants and offset through carbon

249、 credits(similar to the commercial offers of carbon-neutral LNG).Gas Market Report,Q3-2024 PAGE|45 Medium-term outlook for low-emission gases IEA.CC BY 4.0.Biomethane and hydrogen drive the growth in low-emissions gases over the medium term IEA.CC BY 4.0.0 4 8 12 16 20 24 282023BiomethaneLow-emissio

250、nshydrogenE-methane2027bcmBiomethaneLow-emissions hydrogenE-methaneEstimated low-emissions gas supply in 2022 and expected increase in production to 2027 Gas Market Report,Q3-2024 PAGE|46 Medium-term outlook for low-emission gases IEA.CC BY 4.0.Biomethane is set for rapid expansion in the medium ter

251、m amid growing policy supportGlobal biomethane4 production more than doubled between 2018 and 2022,reaching just over 7 bcm.This strong growth was largely driven by Europe and North America,accounting for more than 90%of incremental biomethane supply during this period.Preliminary data indicate that

252、 this rapid expansion continued in 2023,with global biomethane output rising by nearly 15%(or 1 bcm)y-o-y to over 8 bcm.Biomethane production is projected to double between 2023 and 2027,primarily supported by projects undertaken in Europe,North America and Brazil.Global biomethane output is expecte

253、d to rise to a range between 15-16 bcm by 2027.This represents a significant upward revision compared to our previous medium-term outlook and is reflective of the growing policy support behind biomethane in key growth markets.United States The United States became the worlds largest renewable natura

254、l gas(RNG)producer in 2019 and has since then solidified its position.The countrys biomethane output has more than doubled since 2019 and rose to over 2.5 bcm in 2023.First data indicate that this strong growth continued in the first five months of 2024,with RNG 4 Alternatively referred to as renewa

255、ble natural gas(RNG).Recognising the regional diversity of biomethane applications and quality,this analysis also includes compressed bio-gas(CBG)in the case of India and bio-natural gas(BNG)in the case of China.production rising by 20%compared with the same period last year.Overall,more than 330 bi

256、omethane plants are operational in North America,165 are under construction and another 320 are at other stages of development.Feedstock supply remains dominated by municipal solid waste,accounting for 72%of the feedstock mix,followed by agricultural and food waste(24%)and wastewater(5%).The transpo

257、rt sector remains the single most important driver behind the rapid expansion of biomethane in the United States.The use of RNG in the US transport system increased by 92%during 2019-2023.In 2023 biomethane met almost 80%of all on-road fuel used in natural gas vehicles.In turn,the transport sector a

258、ccounts for nearly 90%of total biomethane use in the United States.RNG in the United States is set to benefit from more stringent fuel standard requirements.In June 2023 the Environmental Protection Agency established biofuel volume requirements and standards for cellulosic biofuel(which primarily a

259、pply to biomethane)for 2023-2025 as part of the Renewable Fuel Standard program.The new rule increases volume targets for cellulosic biofuel by 25%in 2023,29%in 2024 and 33%in 2025.RNG in the United States is also set to benefit from the Inflation Reduction Act and is expected to expand by 90%during

260、 2023-2027 to over 5 bcm.Gas Market Report,Q3-2024 PAGE|47 Medium-term outlook for low-emission gases IEA.CC BY 4.0.The transport sector is a key driver behind biomethane growth in the United States IEA.CC BY 4.0.Source:IEA analysis based on RNG Coalition(2024),2023 On-Road Renewable Natural Gas Use

261、 Report.RNG used as a transport fuel,United States,2014-2023 0 1 22014201520162017201820192020202120222023bcmGas Market Report,Q3-2024 PAGE|48 Medium-term outlook for low-emission gases IEA.CC BY 4.0.Europe In Europe biomethane production expanded almost sevenfold during 2012-2022,reaching around 4

262、bcm.Preliminary data suggest that biomethane output grew by just over 10%to almost 4.5 bcm in 2023.Latest surveys indicate that around 80%of biomethane plants have grid injection capability,with close to 60%of them connected to a gas distribution grid.Feedstock supply is increasingly dominated by ag

263、ricultural residues.Their share rose from around 20%in 2015 to account for over 40%of the feedstock mix in 2022.Meanwhile,the share of energy crops declined from 50%to 28%during the same period.Biomethane production in Germany Europes largest biomethane producer remained broadly flat at just over 1

264、bcm in 2023,while Denmark and France together contributed around 65%of the incremental biomethane supply amid effective policy support.Growth has been particularly strong in France,where biomethane output increased by more than 60%y-o-y and reached over 0.8 bcm.In the first half of 2024,Frances biom

265、ethane output rose by 30%,solidifying its position as Europes second-largest producer.The countrys draft Energy and Climate Strategy foresees Frances biomethane output reaching 44 TWh(around 4 bcm)by 2030.Considering the strong policy support,France is expected to become Europes largest biomethane p

266、roducer in 2025 and lead production growth over the medium term.In Denmark biomethane output rose by an estimated 15%in 2023 to just over 0.8 bcm.Consequently,the share of biomethane in Denmarks total natural gas supply increased from 32%in 2022 to a record 38%in 2023.Initial data indicate that biom

267、ethane production growth slowed in H1 2024,rising by 5%y-o-y compared with the same period last year.Denmark has set the ambition of using 100%green gas by 2030“at the latest”.This indicates that Denmarks biomethane production is set to grow over the medium term,benefiting from the countrys large ag

268、ricultural sector.Biomethane is gaining significant policy momentum in other European countries as well.In Italy the National Recovery and Resilience Plan is aiming to increase the countrys biomethane production to 2.3-2.5 bcm by 2026 from only around 0.3 bcm in 2022.In August 2022 the European Comm

269、ission approved a EUR 4.5 billion scheme to support biomethane projects in Italy.The scheme provides EUR 1.7 billion in grants to cover up to 40%of biomethane project construction costs.An additional EUR 2.8 billion is dedicated to paying feed-in-tariffs for producers over a period of 15 years.In th

270、e Netherlands biomethane production grew by a strong 22%in 2023 to reach 0.28 bcm.The country is aiming to increase its biomethane consumption to 2 bcm by 2030.From 2025 onwards,gas suppliers will be subject to a blending obligation;up to 20%of gas delivered to buildings will need to comprise biomet

271、hane by 2030.This is expected to increase domestic biomethane production to approximately 1.6 bcm/yr by 2030.Gas Market Report,Q3-2024 PAGE|49 Medium-term outlook for low-emission gases IEA.CC BY 4.0.In the Czech Republic a scheme backed by EUR 2.4 billion will support the construction and operation

272、 of biomethane production plants.The support scheme was approved by the European Commission in October 2023 and will run until the end of 2025.It is expected to ramp up biomethane output to close to 0.34 bcm/yr.In Ireland the countrys Climate Action Plan set a target of producing 5.7 TWh/yr(or 0.5 b

273、cm/yr)of biomethane by 2030.Ukraines first biomethane plant was connected to the gas network in April 2023.In March 2024 the Ukrainian parliament adopted changes to legislation to allow the export of domestically produced biomethane.The country plans to open 10 new facilities with a capacity of 1.5

274、million m/yr in 2024-2025.Overall,Europes biomethane production is expected to expand by over 85%between 2023 and 2027,with overall output reaching 8.5 bcm by the end of the forecast period.France,Italy,Denmark and the Netherlands are expected to account for over 80%of this growth.Considering recent

275、 policy developments and new subsidy schemes,the medium-term outlook for biomethane developments in Europe has been significantly revised upwards.Nevertheless,more policy support will be required to put the European Union on track to reach its 35 bcm/yr biomethane production target by 2030.Other gro

276、wth markets Considering Brazils vast agricultural sector,the country has significant biogas and biomethane production potential.Brazils biogas output has more than doubled since 2019.In 2023 the country had over 1 360 biogas plants in operation with a capacity of 4.15 bcm.Over 55%of the biogas produ

277、ced was used for power generation and 37%was upgraded into biomethane.According to the latest data,only six biomethane plants have been authorised to produce and inject biomethane into the countrys gas network while 21 biomethane plants are in the process of seeking regulatory approval.Brazils Ten-Y

278、ear Energy Expansion Plan 2032 foresees the countrys biomethane production reaching 3.5 bcm by 2032.Based on projects under development,RNG output is expected to more than quadruple from its 2022 level,rising to near 1 bcm/yr by 2027 and making Brazil the sixth-largest biomethane producer in the wor

279、ld.In China bio-natural gas(BNG)production stood at around 0.3 bcm in 2022 and is expected to continue to expand over the medium term at an impressive rate of 25%per year between 2023 and 2027,although falling short of the governments previous production target of 10 bcm by 2025.In November 2023 the

280、 government of India approved mandatory blending of compressed bio-gas(CBG)into the domestic gas supply destined for the city gas distribution sector.The mandate has been set at 1%of total compressed natural gas and domestic piped natural gas consumption from 2025,and rises gradually to 5%from 2028/

281、29.The new policy is expected to unlock USD 4.5 billion of investment into CBG by 2028/29 and facilitate the development of 750 projects.Gas Market Report,Q3-2024 PAGE|50 Medium-term outlook for low-emission gases IEA.CC BY 4.0.Global biomethane production is expected to double between 2023 and 2027

282、 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Sources:IEA analysis based on Argonne National Laboratory(2024),Renewable Natural Gas Database;Biogas Partner(2024),Biogaspartner Einspeiseatlas Deutschland;Cedigaz(2024),Global Biomethane Database;Energinet(2024),Energi Data Service;ODRE(2024),Production Quotidienne Consolide de Biom

283、thane sur le Rseau de Transport et de Distribution par Oprateur.Biomethane production by region,2023-2027 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 162023EuropeNorth AmericaOthers2027bcmEuropeEuropeNorth AmericaNorth AmericaOthersOthersGas Market Report,Q3-2024 PAGE|51 Medium-term outlook for low-emission gases IEA.CC BY

284、4.0.Low-emissions hydrogen production is set to increase fivefold in the medium termThe low-emissions hydrogen project pipeline is progressively gaining momentum,setting global supply on track to grow fivefold by 2027.However,after three years of broadly flat low-emissions hydrogen production,the ga

285、p to meet medium-term targets in certain regions remains significant.Following near-zero y-o-y production growth in 2022,initial data show that global incremental low-emissions hydrogen supply was marginal in 2023,keeping total production below 1 Mt.At the same time,total global hydrogen production

286、grew by approximately 3%,keeping the low-emissions share of global supply to less than 1%.Despite electrolytic hydrogen production growing by close to 40%in 2023(from a very low base),abated fossil fuel-based hydrogen production still accounted for the vast majority of low-emissions hydrogen supply

287、driven by 15 large-scale hydrogen production facilities equipped with CCUS technology.Currently,North America continues to be the largest supplier of low-emissions hydrogen,making up more than 70%of the global market.Looking to the medium term,however,both the regional and technology pattern of low-

288、emissions hydrogen production are set to evolve considerably.The IEA Hydrogen Projects Database collates announced projects worldwide,highlighting the growing drive behind low-emissions hydrogen supply.Tallying existing projects across different stages of development from concept phase to operationa

289、l status global low-emissions hydrogen production could reach nearly 16 Mt(53 bcmeq)per year by 2027.However,less than one-fifth of this potential production is linked to projects that are operational,under construction or have taken FID.Global low-emissions hydrogen supply is expected to reach just

290、 over 3 Mt(9 bcmeq)per year by 2027,still representing a fivefold increase on current levels.North Americas share of total production is set to slide to 45%as production grows significantly in both China and Europe.Together,these three geographical blocks are set to account for about 85%of global lo

291、w-emissions hydrogen supply.Accelerated electrolyser capacity growth and a wider geographical base than for abated fossil-based hydrogen help electrolytic hydrogen reach new heights in the medium term.By 2027 water electrolysis is expected to account for about 90%and 65%of low-emissions hydrogen pro

292、duction in China and Europe,respectively(compared to only 10%in North America).With an increasing share of hydrogen production based outside North America which has access to a deep natural gas resource base and is developing CCS infrastructure and hubs the share of electrolysis in global low-emissi

293、ons hydrogen supply is expected to surpass 40%by 2027.Despite a growing project pipeline,a production target gap persists,notably in the European Union,where electrolysis-based production of 0.3 Mt in 2027 trails the Fit for 55 ambition of 5.4Mt/yr for 2030.Still,further projects are expected to be

294、announced and to come online by 2030.Gas Market Report,Q3-2024 PAGE|52 Medium-term outlook for low-emission gases IEA.CC BY 4.0.Despite a growing project pipeline,only a small share of projects are at mature planning stages IEA.CC BY 4.0.Notes:“Mature”comprises projects that are operating,under cons

295、truction,or that have reached FID;“Early stage”comprises projects that remain in the very early planning phases,such as those for which only a co-operation agreement among stakeholders has been announced;and“Feasibility”comprises projects between these two categories.The IEA Global Hydrogen Review(p

296、ublication of the 2024 report is expected in October 2024)will provide final 2023 data and an update on the low-emissions hydrogen project pipeline.Source:IEA(2024),Hydrogen Production and Infrastructure Projects(database).Potential low-emissions hydrogen production by current project status,2027 Ex

297、pected low-emissions hydrogen production by region and market,2027 Gas Market Report,Q3-2024 PAGE|53 Medium-term outlook for low-emission gases IEA.CC BY 4.0.Some e-methane projects aim to start operating or take FID within the next three years E-methane is produced by combining low-emissions hydrog

298、en with carbon resources.It has the potential to contribute to the decarbonisation of gas networks without the need to retrofit existing gas infrastructure such as LNG receiving terminals,LNG tankers,gas pipelines and consumer gas equipment.E-methane could contribute to a smooth transition to carbon

299、 neutrality and limit the social costs associated with its introduction.Projects to produce e-methane are planned in the United States,Europe,Australia and other countries around the world.Japan has a target for e-methane to comprise 1%of the gas supply in existing networks by 2030,increasing to 90%

300、by 2050,and Japanese companies are collaborating with global companies to progress production plans.Several e-methane production projects aim to start operating or take investment decisions within the next three years.TotalEnergies and Tree Energy Solutions are planning to produce 100 000-200 000 to

301、nnes of e-methane annually in the United States and aim to reach FID in 2024.The e-methane is to be produced using hydrogen from a 1 GW electrolyser powered by wind and solar energy,and biogenic CO2.Tokyo Gas,Osaka Gas,Toho Gas,Mitsubishi Corporation and Sempra Infrastructure have a plan to produce

302、e-methane in the United States,aiming to reach FID in 2025 and start to export to Japan in 2030.In Wallonia,Belgium,the Columbus project aims to produce e-methane by using the CO2 released during the lime production process and combining it with hydrogen produced using a 100 MW electrolysis unit pow

303、ered by renewable electricity.In Finland,Nordic Ren-Gas has six planned plants in its portfolio,the construction of the first plant in Tampere targeted to start in 2024,with the production of e-methane in 2027.Santos aims to produce e-methane in Australia with Japanese companies and start to export

304、it in 2030.In addition,Osaka Gas,Marubeni and PERU LNG announced a joint study agreement to commence preliminary front-end engineering design for a project to produce e-methane in Peru by 2030.The establishment of CO2 accounting rules is key to accelerating the global deployment of e-methane.When a

305、country imports e-methane from another country,international CO2 accounting rules are important.In August 2023 the US-Japan CCUS/Carbon Recycling Working Group noted the importance of encouraging consensus building among the public and private sectors so that international transactions of carbon rec

306、ycled fuels(e-fuel,e-methane,etc.)can be treated as carbon neutral.The outcome document of the Japan-US Clean Energy and Energy Security Initiative in March 2024 mentioned that for e-methane,Japanese companies have signed letters of intent with US companies to avoid CO2 double counting.Gas Market Re

307、port,Q3-2024 PAGE|54 Medium-term outlook for low-emission gases IEA.CC BY 4.0.Global e-methane output could potentially grow by 2030 Potential output volumes of the key planned e-methane projects by country of production IEA.CC BY 4.0.Notes:This graph represents the potential e-methane production vo

308、lumes of the key planned projects,including the volumes of pre-FID projects.Source:IEA analysis based on various public announcements.0.00.51.01.5United StatesFinlandAustraliaPeruBelgiumTotalbcm/yr Gas Market Report,Q3-2024 PAGE|55 Annex IEA.CC BY 4.0.Annex Gas Market Report,Q3-2024 PAGE|56 Annex IE

309、A.CC BY 4.0.Summary table World natural gas consumption and production by region and key country(bcm)Consumption Production 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Africa 161 169 170 176 181 240 260 251 253 255 Asia Pacific 834 891 877 902 948 622 648 660 670 686 of which China 325 367 364

310、 391 422 189 205 216 230 242 Central and South America 142 153 150 149 152 150 148 151 149 150 Eurasia 585 649 622 631 650 866 960 865 830 864 of which Russia 461 516 487 495 510 692 762 672 638 675 Europe 576 609 524 488 487 230 222 230 215 220 Middle East 546 562 580 592 610 670 692 715 725 750 No

311、rth America 1 079 1 091 1 144 1 157 1 172 1 145 1 172 1 240 1 285 1 275 of which United States 868 874 919 928 937 954 984 1 021 1 061 1 060 World 3 923 4 124 4 067 4 095 4 199 3 923 4 105 4 112 4 127 4 200 Gas Market Report,Q3-2024 PAGE|57 Annex IEA.CC BY 4.0.Regional and country groupingsAfrica Al

312、geria,Angola,Benin,Botswana,Cameroon,Congo,Democratic Republic of the Congo,Cte dIvoire,Egypt,Eritrea,Ethiopia,Gabon,Ghana,Kenya,Libya,Morocco,Mozambique,Namibia,Nigeria,Senegal,South Africa,Sudan,United Republic of Tanzania,Togo,Tunisia,Zambia,Zimbabwe and other countries and territories.1 Asia Pac

313、ific Australia,Bangladesh,Brunei Darussalam,Cambodia,Chinese Taipei,India,Indonesia,Japan,Korea,the Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea,Malaysia,Mongolia,Myanmar,Nepal,New Zealand,Pakistan,the Peoples Republic of China,2 the Philippines,Singapore,Sri Lanka,Thailand,Viet Nam and other countries and

314、territories.3 Central and Argentina,Bolivia,Brazil,Chile,Colombia,Costa Rica,South America Cuba,the Dominican Republic,Ecuador,El Salvador,Guatemala,Haiti,Honduras,Jamaica,Netherlands Antilles,Nicaragua,Panama,Paraguay,Peru,Trinidad and Tobago,Uruguay,Venezuela and other countries and territories.4

315、Eurasia Armenia,Azerbaijan,Georgia,Kazakhstan,Kyrgyzstan,the Russian Federation,Tajikistan,Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.Europe Albania,Austria,Belarus,Belgium,Bosnia and Herzegovina,Bulgaria,Croatia,Cyprus,5,6 the Czech Republic,Denmark,Estonia,Finland,the Former Yugoslav Republic of North Macedonia,

316、France,Germany,Gibraltar,Greece,Hungary,Iceland,Ireland,Italy,Kosovo,7 Latvia,Lithuania,Luxembourg,Malta,the Republic of Moldova,Montenegro,the Netherlands,Norway,Poland,Portugal,Romania,Serbia,the Slovak Republic,Slovenia,Spain,Sweden,Switzerland,Republic of Trkiye,Ukraine and the United Kingdom.Eu

317、ropean Union Austria,Belgium,Bulgaria,Croatia,Cyprus,5,6 the Czech Republic,Denmark,Estonia,Finland,France,Germany,Greece,Hungary,Ireland,Italy,Latvia,Lithuania,Luxembourg,Malta,the Netherlands,Poland,Portugal,Romania,the Slovak Republic,Slovenia,Spain and Sweden.Middle East Bahrain,the Islamic Repu

318、blic of Iran,Iraq,Israel,8 Jordan,Kuwait,Lebanon,Oman,Qatar,Saudi Arabia,the Syrian Arab Republic,the United Arab Emirates and Yemen.North Africa Algeria,Egypt,Libya,Morocco and Tunisia.North America Canada,Mexico and the United States.1 Individual data are not available and are estimated in aggrega

319、te for:Burkina Faso,Burundi,Cape Verde,the Central African Republic,Chad,Comoros,Djibouti,Equatorial Guinea,Gambia,Guinea,Guinea-Bissau,Lesotho,Liberia,Madagascar,Malawi,Mali,Mauritania,Mauritius,Niger,Reunion,Rwanda,Sao Tome and Principe,Seychelles,Sierra Leone,Somalia,Swaziland and Uganda.2 Includ

320、ing Hong Kong.3 Individual data are not available and are estimated in aggregate for:Afghanistan,Bhutan,Cook Islands,Fiji,French Polynesia,Kiribati,the Lao Peoples Democratic Republic,Macau(China),Maldives,New Caledonia,Palau,Papua New Guinea,Samoa,Solomon Islands,Timor-Leste,Tonga and Vanuatu.4 Ind

321、ividual data are not available and are estimated in aggregate for:Antigua and Barbuda,Aruba,Bahamas,Barbados,Belize,Bermuda,British Virgin Islands,Cayman Islands,Dominica,Falkland Islands(Malvinas),French Guyana,Grenada,Guadeloupe,Guyana,Martinique,Montserrat,St Kitts and Nevis,St Lucia,St Vincent a

322、nd the Grenadines,Suriname and Turks and Caicos Islands.5 Note by the Republic of Trkiye.The information in this document with reference to“Cyprus”relates to the southern part of the Island.There is no single authority representing both Turkish and Greek Cypriot people on the Island.The Republic of

323、Trkiye recognises the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus(TRNC).Until a lasting and equitable solution is found within the context of the United Nations,The Republic of Trkiye shall preserve its position concerning the“Cyprus issue”.6.Note by all the European Union Member States of the OECD and the

324、European Union The Republic of Cyprus is recognised by all members of the United Nations with the exception of Trkiye.The information in this document relates to the area under the effective control of the Government of the Republic of Cyprus.7 The designation is without prejudice to positions on st

325、atus,and is in line with the United Nations Security Council Resolution 1244/99 and the Advisory Opinion of the International Court of Justice on Kosovos declaration of Independence.8 The statistical data for Israel are supplied by and under the responsibility of the relevant Israeli authorities.The

326、 use of such data by the OECD and/or the IEA is without prejudice to the status of the Golan Heights,East Jerusalem and Israeli settlements in the West Bank under the terms of international law.Gas Market Report,Q3-2024 PAGE|58 Annex IEA.CC BY 4.0.Abbreviations and acronymsANP National Petroleum Age

327、ncy(Brazil)BMC Colombian Mercantile Exchange(Colombia)CAPEX capital expenditure CBG compressed biogas CCUS Carbon Capture,Utilisation and Storage CME Chicago Mercantile Exchange(United States)CNE National Energy Commission(Chile)CO2 carbon dioxide CQPGX Chongqing Petroleum Exchange(the Peoples Repub

328、lic of China)EIA Energy Information Administration(United States)ENARGAS National Gas Regulatory Entity(Argentina)ENTSOG European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas EPIAS Energy Markets Operations Inc.(Republic of Trkiye)EPPO Energy Policy and Planning Office(Thailand)EU European Union

329、 EUR Euro FID final investment decision FSRU floating storage and regasification unit GHGs greenhouse gases GIE Gas Infrastructure Europe HH Henry Hub HoA Head of Agreement IEA International Energy Agency ICE Intercontinental Exchange ICIS Independent Chemical Information Services IEA International

330、Energy Agency JKM Japan Korea Marker JODI Joint Oil Data Initiative JPY Japanese yen LEGWP Low-Emission Gases Work Programme LNG liquefied natural gas METI Ministry of Economy,Trade and Industry(Japan)MoU Memorandum of Understanding MME Ministry of Mines and Energy(Brazil)NBP National Balancing Poin

331、t(United Kingdom)NDRC National Development and Reform Commission(the Peoples Republic of China)OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development ONS National Electric System Operator(Brazil)OSINERG Energy Regulatory Commission(Peru)PPAC Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell(India)RNG renewa

332、ble natural gas TCP time charter party SMR steam methane reforming SPA Sales and Purchase Agreement TFFS Task Force on Gas and Clean Fuels Market Monitoring and Supply and Security TTF Title Transfer Facility(the Netherlands)USD United States dollar y-o-y year-on-year Gas Market Report,Q3-2024 PAGE|

333、59 Annex IEA.CC BY 4.0.Units of measure bcf billion cubic feet bcf/d billion cubic feet per day bcm billion cubic metres bcmeq billion cubic metre equivalent bcm/yr billion cubic metres per year GJ gigajoule GW gigawatt kWh kilowatt hour MBtu million British thermal units Mt million tonnes Mt/yr million tonnes per year m3/hr cubic metres per hour TWh terawatt hour t/yr tonnes per year Gas Market R