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1、Climate Resilience for Energy Security in Southeast AsiaThe IEA examines the full spectrum of energy issues including oil,gas and coal supply and demand,renewable energy technologies,electricity markets,energy efficiency,access to energy,demand side management and much more.Through its work,the IEA

2、advocates policies that will enhance the reliability,affordability and sustainability of energy in its 31 member countries,13 association countries and beyond.This publication and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory,to the delimitation of

3、international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory,city or area.Source:IEA.International Energy Agency Website:www.iea.orgIEA member countries:AustraliaAustriaBelgiumCanadaCzech RepublicDenmarkEstoniaFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyJapanKoreaLithuaniaLuxembourgMexic

4、oNetherlandsNew ZealandNorwayPolandPortugalSlovak RepublicSpainSwedenSwitzerlandRepublic of TrkiyeUnited KingdomUnited StatesThe European Commission also participates in the work of the IEAIEA association countries:Argentina BrazilChinaEgyptIndiaIndonesiaKenyaMoroccoSenegalSingapore South Africa Tha

5、iland UkraineINTERNATIONAL ENERGYAGENCYClimate Resilience for Energy Security in Southeast Asia Abstract PAGE|3 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Abstract The increasing impact of climate change is putting energy security at risk in Southeast Asia.Heatwaves,floods,droughts,tropical cyclones and rises in sea levels pos

6、e challenges to the energy system,affecting everything from fuel extraction to electricity distribution.High temperatures impair the functionality of solar PV and natural gas-fired power plants,while heavy rainfall and flooding disrupt coal and mineral mining operations.Increasingly intense tropical

7、 cyclones endanger energy infrastructure,especially in coastal and cyclone-prone areas.A climate-resilient energy system is needed to overcome these issues.This report provides a comprehensive overview of climate hazards and their impacts on the energy sector until the end of the 21st century.It als

8、o identifies effective measures to enhance climate resilience in Southeast Asia which can lead to a resilient and secure energy future for the region.Climate Resilience for Energy Security in Southeast Asia Acknowledgements PAGE|4 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Acknowledgements,contributors and credits The report w

9、as prepared by the IEAs Tracking Sustainable Transitions Unit of the Directorate of Sustainability,Technology and Outlooks.The lead author was Jinsun Lim with major contributions from Lena Wiest,Lonore Lafargue and Shinichi Mizuno.Daniel Wetzel,Head of Sustainable Transitions Unit,provided overall g

10、uidance and review.Valuable comments and feedback were provided by IEA colleagues Alexandre Bizeul,Alexandra Hegarty,Craig Hart,Emi Bertoli,Jun Takashiro,Pablo Hevia-Koch,Shobhan Dhir,Tae-Yoon Kim,Toms de Oliveira Bredariol and Yasmina Abdelilah.Ranya Oualid and Vrinda Tiwari supported regional co-o

11、rdination.Reka Koczka provided essential administrative support.Many thanks to Chiara DAdamo,Carson Maconga,Benjamn Carvajal Ponce,Nikoo Tajdolat,previous IEA colleagues,who provided valuable support,especially on data analysis and research.Thanks to Astrid Dumond,Curtis Brainard,Therese Walsh,Liv G

12、aunt and Clara Vallois of the Communications and Digital Office for their roles in producing this report.Erin Crum edited the report.The authors would like to thank the many external experts who contributed to this report.Aishwarya Pillai,Amit Tripathi and Avinash Venkata(Coalition for Disaster Resi

13、lient Infrastructure);Roberta Boscolo(World Meteorological Organization);Selena Jihyun Lee(World Bank);and Madhurima Sarkar-Swaisgood(United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific)participated in the peer review,provided input and commented on the analysis.Their comments and

14、 suggestions were of great value.The individuals and organisations that contributed to this report are not responsible for any opinions or judgements it contains.All errors and omissions are solely the responsibility of the IEA.This report is supported by a voluntary contribution from the Government

15、 of Japan.Climate Resilience for Energy Security in Southeast Asia Executive summary PAGE|5 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Executive summary Climate changes impacts have already become more apparent in Southeast Asia.The region has seen a significant rise in land surface temperatures by 0.8C since the 1980s,accompa

16、nied by more frequent and intense heatwaves.Rising temperatures have altered precipitation patterns and increased flood risks beyond the world average.In addition,the region is experiencing intensified tropical cyclones,particularly affecting countries like Myanmar,the Philippines and Viet Nam.Clima

17、te impacts are set to worsen in Southeast Asia.Erratic precipitation patterns are projected to increase,with more intense and frequent heavy rainfalls.The temporal concentration of precipitation may lead to higher risks of floods.Projections indicate that mean temperatures are likely to continue to

18、rise,with extreme heat events potentially doubling under low-emissions scenarios and quadrupling under high-emissions scenarios by the end of the century.Projections also suggest that tropical cyclones continue to become more intense,posing risks to coastal and offshore energy infrastructure.Combine

19、d with more intense tropical cyclones,accelerated sea level rise could threaten coastal energy assets with an increasing number of storm surges and coastal flooding.The impacts of these climate hazards are pervasive across the entire energy value chain,from fuel extraction and processing to electric

20、ity generation and distribution.Increasing climate risks pose challenges to an energy system already strained by rising electricity demand,heavy reliance on imported fuels and issues of energy affordability.Therefore,climate impacts have implications for the safe,reliable and affordable operation of

21、 the regions energy system.Climate Resilience for Energy Security in Southeast Asia Executive summary PAGE|6 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Level of climate hazard and exposure by country in Southeast Asia Country Warming River flood Coastal flood Drought Tropical cyclone Brunei Darussalam 0.023 4.9 3.3 1.6 0 Cambo

22、dia 0.017 8.7 3.8 3.9 1.8 Indonesia 0.029 8.3 8.1 2.2 1.5 Lao PDR 0.041 8.2 0 2.4 1.4 Malaysia 0.027 6.8 6.4 2.8 0 Myanmar 0.032 8.8 8 0.6 5.8 Philippines 0.026 6.7 8.9 3.3 9.2 Singapore 0.021 0 1.9 0 0 Thailand 0.026 9.8 5.5 5.2 1.6 Viet Nam 0.032 9.9 9.6 3.4 5.9 World average 0.037 4.5 3.5 2.9 1.6

23、 Notes:Low exposure Medium exposure High exposure.Lao PDR=Lao Peoples Democratic Republic.The level of climate hazard and exposure for warming is extracted from the Weather,Climate and Energy Tracker for the period 2000 2023.If the slope of a linear regression line of temperatures is higher than 0.0

24、48C per year(+0.011C from the world average)in a certain country,the climate hazard level of the country is“high”.If the slope of a linear regression line of temperatures is lower than 0.026C per year(-0.011C from the world average)in a certain country,the climate hazard level of the country is“low”

25、.The world average was calculated based on the land temperature data from the NOAA National Centers for Environmental information,Climate at a Glance:Global Time Series,accessed on 16 May 2024.The levels of climate hazard and exposure for river flood,coastal flood,tropical cyclone and drought are as

26、sessed based on the indicators of the INFORM Risk Index for“River Flood”,“Coastal Flood”,“Tropical Cyclone”and“Drought”.The minimum value is given 0 on the scale,while the maximum value is given 10.A detailed methodology of the indicator is described on the INFORM Risk Index page.In this report,the

27、risk is defined as Low(0-2.99),Medium(3-6.99)and High(7-10).Sources:IEA(2024),Weather,Climate and Energy Tracker;INFORM(2021),INFORM Risk Index 2024.High temperatures and heatwaves have critical impacts on the power sector,notably on solar PV,gas-fired power plants and electricity networks.Higher te

28、mperatures may lead to less solar power generation by degrading generation efficiency and increasing the electrical resistance,while damaging cells and other materials.Similarly,natural gas-fired power plants can see a decrease in power generation due to a reduced air mass flow and increasing temper

29、ature of cooling water.Although the impacts of extreme heat are currently limited,solar PV and natural gas-fired power plants are projected to experience more frequent extreme heat events in the coming decades.Particularly in a high-emissions scenario,nearly 70%of solar PV and over 90%of natural gas

30、-fired power plants would see more than 20 hot days above 35C thresholds by 2100,presenting a notable increase from the current level.Electricity grids are also under increasing stress due to increasing extreme heat events.Overhead power lines can heat up,expand and sag while underground power cable

31、s could experience short circuits due to stresses on cable and joint Climate Resilience for Energy Security in Southeast Asia Executive summary PAGE|7 I EA.CC BY 4.0.insulating materials.Critical components such as transformers,inverters and substations are also at higher risk of failure from overhe

32、ating.Rapidly increasing electricity demand for cooling also adds strains to the grid.Heavy rainfalls and flooding disrupt coal and critical mineral mining operations.Coal,nickel and copper mines in flood-prone areas of Southeast Asia have already experienced operational halts and supply chain inter

33、ruptions due to inundation in mining pits and physical damage.If climate change is not mitigated on time,around 75%of coal mines,75%of copper mines and 30%of nickel mines in the region could see a more than 10%increase in heavy rainfall in the middle of this century compared with the pre-industrial

34、period.The changes in precipitation patterns also require building climate resilience of hydropower.Hydropower,which is a crucial part of the energy mix in countries such as Laos PDR and Viet Nam,is sensitive to changes in precipitation patterns.Increased annual and seasonal variability in precipita

35、tion may lead to a decrease in hydropower generation capacity factor,5%by 2100 compared with 1970-2010 in a low-emissions scenario or nearly 9%in a high-emissions scenario.Some Mekong River basin countries,which have already experienced electricity supply disruptions due to climate change,are projec

36、ted to have the largest drop.The intensification of tropical cyclones is another concern to energy security.Tropical cyclones can directly threaten the physical resilience of energy systems,inflicting damages to assets with severe winds,heavy rainfall,landslides and storm surges with the combination

37、 of sea level rise.In Southeast Asia,nearly half of the solar PV and hydropower installed capacities are situated in cyclone-prone areas,far exceeding the global level(15%).Over 40%of wind turbines and over 20%of electricity grids are also exposed to tropical cyclones.Some refineries located in coas

38、tal and cyclone-prone areas could face severe coastal floodings or storm surges as sea level rises and tropical cyclones intensify.Shifting the way energy infrastructure is planned and developed can help mitigate climate impacts,while also supporting energy transition and security.A climate-resilien

39、t energy system that can prepare for climate changes(“readiness”),adapt to and withstand the slow-onset changes in climate patterns(“robustness”),continue to operate under the immediate shocks from extreme weather events using alternative sources(“resourcefulness”),and restore the systems function a

40、fter climate-driven disruptions(“recovery”)is essential to deliver energy and climate goals.Actions for climate resilience could start with building a robust climate database,conducting scientific assessments and integrating climate resilience into energy policies.Despite notable progress in recent

41、decades,the inadequate quality of observation data and climate projections in the region Climate Resilience for Energy Security in Southeast Asia Executive summary PAGE|8 I EA.CC BY 4.0.remains a major bottleneck for climate resilience,while the energy sector climate resilience is often neglected in

42、 climate change adaptation and resilience policies.Mobilising private sector investment with public financing instruments,supportive policies and insurance is also required to support resilience measures to enhance robustness and resourcefulness.Deployment of energy-efficient technologies and nature

43、-based solutions contribute to coping with both slow-onset and extreme weather events,while addressing fundamental issues with long-term time horizons.Technical and structural improvements of energy infrastructure,diversification of energy sources,and innovative digital solutions can help address im

44、mediate impacts from extreme weather events while enabling fast recovery.Although adverse impacts of climate change are increasing in the region,they can be avoided or minimised by actions for climate resilience.Co-ordinated efforts from diverse stakeholders,including public and private sectors,regi

45、onal organisations,and international partners,could lead to a more resilient and secure future for the energy sector in Southeast Asia.Measures to build climate resilience for energy security in Southeast Asia Measure Readiness Robustness Resourcefulness Recovery Build robust climate data and conduc

46、t scientific assessments of climate risks and impacts Mainstream climate resilience into policies,regulations and guidelines Mobilise investment in climate resilience Promote energy efficiency to alleviate climate-related strain on energy systems Deploy nature-based solutions to reduce negative impa

47、cts of climate change Improve systems technically and physically to prevent and withstand damage Achieve technological and geographical diversification in energy supply Adopt innovative digital technologies for early warning and fast recovery Climate Resilience for Energy Security in Southeast Asia

48、Introduction PAGE|9 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Introduction Southeast Asia stands at the forefront of the climate crisis on energy security.Higher average temperatures and irregular precipitation patterns are making heatwaves,floods and droughts more frequent,while sea level rise and intensified tropical cyclon

49、es are becoming prevalent.The increasing impacts of climate change are altering the landscape of energy system and have profound implications for energy security in Southeast Asia.Southeast Asias energy system is already strained due to rapidly rising electricity demand,heavy reliance on imported fu

50、els and energy affordability.More frequent heavy rainfalls and floods add challenges to coal and critical mineral mining,while the temporal concentration of precipitation requires hydropower resilience.Rising temperatures and extreme heatwaves put stress on the electricity generation assets and netw

51、ork,reducing their efficiency.Intensification of tropical cyclones combined with sea level rise also raises concerns about energy assets in coastal areas and offshore.Building and strengthening climate resilience of energy systems is increasingly important due to the escalating climate change risks

52、to energy security.Climate resilience is the ability to anticipate,absorb,accommodate and recover from the effects of a potentially hazardous event related to climate change.A climate-resilient energy system is one that can prepare for changes in climate,adapt to and withstand the slow-onset changes

53、 in climate patterns,continue to operate under the immediate shocks from extreme weather events,and restore the systems function after climate-driven disruptions.This report,Climate Resilience for Energy Security in Southeast Asia,is designed to support building climate resilience and enhancing ener

54、gy security in the region.This report provides a comprehensive analysis of climate trends,their impacts on energy systems and strategic measures for enhancing resilience in the following key chapters.The first chapter provides an overview of historical trends and projections of four major climate ha

55、zards in the region focusing on four climate aspects:temperature,precipitation,wind and sea level rise.By comparing different greenhouse gas concentration trajectories,it aims to identify key climate hazards that would have strong impacts on the energy sectors resilience in Southeast Asia.The second

56、 chapter comprehensively assesses climate change impacts on each segment of the energy value chain,from fuels and minerals to electricity grids and Climate Resilience for Energy Security in Southeast Asia Introduction PAGE|10 I EA.CC BY 4.0.demand,comparing different climate scenarios.It highlights

57、how various climate hazards would affect each segment of energy systems.The third chapter outlines strategies and measures to enhance climate resilience of energy systems based on the conceptual framework of resilience.It identifies actions for each phase of climate resilience(readiness,robustness,r

58、esourcefulness and recovery),discussing the role of policy,investment and technologies in building climate resilience.Climate Resilience for Energy Security in Southeast Asia Trends and projections of climate change PAGE|11 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Trends and projections of climate change Southeast Asia,with

59、a tropical climate with high temperatures and humidity,is now grappling with heightened occurrences of extreme weather events due to climate change.Higher average temperatures and changing precipitation patterns are making heatwaves,floods and droughts more frequent,while an accelerated rise in sea

60、levels and intensified tropical cyclones are becoming prevalent.These shifts are altering the landscape of energy demand and supply,posing a significant risk to the regions energy security.This chapter focuses on four climate-driven hazards in the Southeast Asia region that affect energy supply and

61、demand:temperature,precipitation,wind and sea level rise.Each hazard is thoroughly examined,delving into historical trends and projected changes.This chapter presents projected changes comparing different trajectories of GHG concentrations so that the analysis can provide a comprehensive overview of

62、 climate change trends.The chapter aims to identify and highlight key hazards which would have the greatest impacts on the energy sectors resilience in Southeast Asia.Global trajectories of GHG concentrations The direction and intensity of future climate change depend on the trajectory of GHG concen

63、trations globally,largely determined by human activities.The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)Sixth Assessment Report defines five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSPs)that explore possible evolutions of human societies and their implications for the climate.They cover a wide range of fu

64、ture pathways,from a scenario in which GHG emissions decline drastically to net zero by 2050 and are negative in the second half of the century(SSP1-1.9)to a scenario in which emissions continue to rise sharply,doubling from todays levels by 2050 and more than tripling by 2100(SSP5-8.5).SSP1-1.9,whi

65、ch is the most similar to the IEAs Net Zero Emissions by 2050(NZE)Scenario,sets out a pathway of limiting global warming below 1.5C in 2100 relative to pre-industrial levels with limited overshoot.SSP1-2.6,which is close to the IEAs Announced Pledges Scenario(APS),implies net zero emissions in the s

66、econd half of the century and limits the temperature rise below 2C.SSP2-4.5,which is aligned most closely with the IEAs Stated Policy Scenario(STEPS),limits global warming below 3C.Climate Resilience for Energy Security in Southeast Asia Trends and projections of climate change PAGE|12 I EA.CC BY 4.

67、0.The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report describes that it is likely to be more difficult to adapt to climate change when the global temperature increase gets close to or exceeds the 1.5C threshold.Some adaptation measures will become less effective or ineffective above the 1.5C threshold because of the s

68、everity of the projected changes in the climate system.Emissions scenarios considered in the IPCCs Sixth Assessment Report Scenario Description Global warming estimate for 2100 SSP1-1.9 A very low-emissions reference scenario;implies net zero emissions by mid-century*Below 1.5C SSP1-2.6 A low-emissi

69、ons reference scenario;implies net zero emissions in the second half of the century*Below 2C SSP2-4.5 An intermediate scenario,in line with the upper end of aggregate nationally determined contribution(NDC)emissions levels by 2030*Below 3C SSP3-7.0 A high reference scenario with no additional climat

70、e policy.Emissions almost double by 2100 compared with todays levels Above 3C SSP5-8.5 An extremely high reference scenario with no additional climate policy.Emissions triple by 2100 compared with todays levels Above 4C *In the IEA World Energy Outlook 2022,the assumption of net zero emissions by mi

71、d-century of SSP1-1.9 is reflected in the IEA NZE Scenario,a normative scenario that sets out a pathway for the global energy sector to achieve net zero CO2 emissions by 2050.The NZE Scenario also meets key energy-related United Nations Sustainable Development Goals,in particular by achieving univer

72、sal energy access by 2030 and major improvements in air quality.*SSP1-2.6 is broadly in line with the IEA APS,another exploratory scenario that assumes that all climate commitments made by governments around the world,including NDCs and longer-term net zero targets,will be met in full and on time.*S

73、SP2-4.5 is broadly in line with the IEA STEPS,an exploratory scenario that reflects current policy settings and provides a benchmark to assess the potential achievements(and limitations)of recent developments in energy and climate policy.Source:Based on IPCC Sixth Assessment Report(2021).Temperature

74、 Extreme heat events would double in a low-emissions scenario and quadruple in a high-emissions scenario Southeast Asia has become hotter,with a land surface temperature increase from 25.02C in 1979-1988 to 25.76C in 2013-2022.Together with the increase in mean temperature,most of Southeast Asia has

75、 seen an increase in the number of warm nights(especially during El Nio periods1)and the intensity and frequency 1 Warm nights are defined by the IPCC as nights where the minimum temperature exceeds the 90th percentile,where the respective temperature distributions are generally defined with respect

76、 to the 1961-1990 reference period.Climate Resilience for Energy Security in Southeast Asia Trends and projections of climate change PAGE|13 I EA.CC BY 4.0.of heatwaves.In April and May 2023(when a La Nia phase ended and transitioned to El Nio),the Lao Peoples Democratic Republic(Lao PDR),Thailand a

77、nd Viet Nam experienced an unprecedented level of heatwaves,breaking the records of the hottest days in Thailand and Viet Nam.The heatwaves caused damage to energy infrastructure and electricity supply disruptions due to soaring electricity demand(e.g.22.5%rise in average electricity consumption in

78、Hanoi)and reduced water levels in hydropower dams.In Viet Nam,some cities had to cut power supply due to the failures in grids.The IPCC projects that Southeast Asia is likely to experience an increase in temperature and extreme heat events.Southeast Asia is projected to see around a 1.6C increase in

79、 mean surface temperature by the end of the century relative to pre-industrial levels under a low-emissions scenario(Below 2C)and around 3.3C increase in a high-emissions scenario(Above 3C).Although the increase in mean temperature of Southeast Asia is likely to be less than the global average tempe

80、rature increase in all scenarios,the region would be one of the most exposed to extreme heat events.Under a high-emissions scenario(Above 3C),Southeast Asia is projected to face 48 days of maximum land temperature above 35C,which is almost four times higher than the number of days of the pre-industr

81、ial period.Even under a low-emissions scenario(Below 2C),the region is likely to see 25 days of maximum land temperature over the thresholds of 35C,two times higher than that of the pre-industrial period.The increase in days with maximum temperature above 35C is especially pronounced along the Mekon

82、g River basin spanning across Myanmar,Thailand,Lao PDR,Viet Nam and Cambodia.Climate Resilience for Energy Security in Southeast Asia Trends and projections of climate change PAGE|14 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Change in days with maximum temperature above 35C,1850-1900,1981-2010 and 2081-2100 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Sour

83、ce:IEA analysis based on IPCC(2021),Working Group I Interactive Atlas.El Nio Southern Oscillation El Nio Southern Oscillation(ENSO)describes the climate phenomenon of periodic fluctuation in different phases of winds and sea surface temperatures over the tropical Pacific Ocean.ENSO is composed of th

84、ree phases:a neutral phase,a warm phase(El Nio)and a cold phase(La Nia).El Nio,characterised by higher-than-average sea surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific and a weakening of the trade winds,typically has a warming influence on global temperatures.La Nia,which is characterised by be

85、low-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific and a strengthening of the Climate Resilience for Energy Security in Southeast Asia Trends and projections of climate change PAGE|15 I EA.CC BY 4.0.trade winds,has the opposite effect.Although ENSO has widespread impact

86、s around the world,the levels of impacts vary among countries and regions.There are ongoing scientific debates on the extent to which climate change affects ENSO cycles.Although the strength and frequency of intense El Nio and La Nia events have increased relative to the pre-industrial period,the IP

87、CC notes that the evidence attributing this increase to climate change is inconclusive.The latest studies using simulated models,however,suggest that ENSO variations have grown 10%more intense since 1960 due to anthropogenic climate change.The World Meteorological Organization also points out that c

88、limate change is likely to affect the impacts related to ENSO in terms of the intensity and frequency of extreme weather and climate events.ENSO has a substantial impact on Southeast Asia,affecting both temperature and precipitation.In most of the region,El Nio episodes are associated with reduced r

89、ainfall and prolonged droughts,followed by an increasing number of warm nights and higher maximum temperatures.In fact,the eight hottest Aprils in Southeast Asia between 1980 and 2016 coincided with El Nio years.During the 2023 El Nio,Indonesia experienced record-setting droughts,leading to forest f

90、ires and water shortages.The Philippines also experienced below-average rainfall.On the contrary,La Nia has the opposite impact on rainfall and temperature,causing heavy rains over Southeast Asian countries such as Indonesia,Malaysia and the Philippines.Precipitation Intense rainfall has increased i

91、n Southeast Asia,raising flooding risks Precipitation in Southeast Asia is largely determined by the regions monsoon systems,which are characterised by pronounced seasonal reversals of precipitation.The Southeast Asia monsoon starts in late May or early June and progresses towards the northeast,endi

92、ng in late September or early October.The rainy monsoon season between June and September contributes to more than 75%of the annual rainfall over much of the region.Countries such as Cambodia,Lao PDR,Myanmar,the Philippines,Thailand and Viet Nam are under the area of influence of the regions monsoon

93、 systems.Southeast Asia has witnessed an increase in heavy rainfall events2 across the region since the 1950s,while the total number of rainy days has declined.3 Those 2 Heavy rainfall is considered by the IPCC to be when the daily precipitation exceeds 100 mm,while moderate rainfall is when the dai

94、ly precipitation is between 5 mm and 100 mm.3 Days with 1 mm of rain Climate Resilience for Energy Security in Southeast Asia Trends and projections of climate change PAGE|16 I EA.CC BY 4.0.effects have been particularly notable in Thailand,Malaysia,Viet Nam,and the southern Philippines.In Thailand,

95、for instance,the average daily rainfall intensity increased by 0.24 mm to 0.73 mm per day per decade,while the average number of wet days decreased by 1.3 days to 5.9 days per decade from 1955 to 2014.Climate change is considered a major reason for the increase in rainfall intensity in Southeast Asi

96、a.A warmer temperature increases evaporation,allows air to hold more moisture in it,and thus leads to more frequent and intense rainfalls.The latest IPCC report says that human-induced climate change contributed to the increase in the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events since 1950.

97、Intensification of tropical cyclones is also increasing heavy precipitation events.Indeed,in Southeast Asia,rainfall associated with tropical cyclones has increased since 1950.Tropical cyclone-induced floods accounted for 24.6%of the occurrence of all floods between 1985 and 2018 and brought bigger

98、impacts than other types of floods in the Southeast Asian countries of Cambodia,Lao PDR,Myanmar,Thailand and Viet Nam.In addition,ENSO patterns contribute to heavy rainfalls in Southeast Asia.For instance,when Southeast Asia experienced a multi-year La Nia event from mid-2020 to early 2023,the amoun

99、t of precipitation over Southeast Asia significantly increased,particularly during the winter season.In 2021 during the La Nia episode,Singapore reached its second-wettest year since 1980,and Malaysia and the Philippines also had rainfall well above their historical averages.The increase in flooding

100、 risks with heavy rainfalls,intensification of tropical cyclones and ENSO effects has become a major concern in several parts of Southeast Asia.According to the INFORM Risk Index,a majority of Southeast Asian countries,including Viet Nam,Thailand,Myanmar,Cambodia,Indonesia,and Lao PDR are estimated

101、to have a high flooding risk.Climate Resilience for Energy Security in Southeast Asia Trends and projections of climate change PAGE|17 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Level of river flood risk for Southeast Asian countries,2024 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Notes:The level of climate hazard is assessed based on the indicator“River

102、flood”.The minimum value is given 0 on the scale,while the maximum value is given 10.A detailed methodology of the indicator is described on the INFORM Risk Index page.In this report,the risk is defined as Low(0-2.99),Medium(3-6.99)and High(7-10).Source:IEA analysis based on INFORM(2021),INFORM Risk

103、 Index 2024.Climate projections show that Southeast Asia is likely to experience more intense and frequent heavy rainfalls including tropical cyclone-related rainfall.Climate projections show that more intense rainfalls,indicated by the one-day maximum precipitation,are especially notable in the coa

104、stal regions of Myanmar,the Philippines and Viet Nam.Especially when crossing the threshold of 2C of warming,the region is likely to experience significantly different levels of changes in terms of heavy precipitation,run-off and flood risks.For instance,climate projections show that the increase in

105、 the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfalls would be more marked in higher-emissions scenarios,and the rate of tropical cyclone-related rainfall would increase more rapidly in a scenario over 4C arming(28%)than in a scenario of 1.5C warming(11%).Such increase in heavy rainfalls could lead to a n

106、otable increase of the total flood damage in river basins in Southeast Asia.Rapid urbanisation in the region could accelerate the increase of flood damage,given that the portion of urban land in a high-frequency flood zone is projected to expand to nearly 75%in Southeast Asia by 2030.Climate Resilie

107、nce for Energy Security in Southeast Asia Trends and projections of climate change PAGE|18 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Change in maximum one-day precipitation,1850-1900,1981-2010 and 2081-2100 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Source:IEA analysis based on IPCC(2021),Working Group I Interactive Atlas.Temporal concentration of precip

108、itation raises another issue droughts Since 1950,most Southeast Asian countries have experienced a reduction in the number of wet days while rainfall intensity has increased.It was a notable phenomenon given that global annual mean precipitation generally increased as global warming made air store m

109、ore water.The dominant cause of the observed decrease in Southeast Asian monsoon precipitation was anthropogenic aerosol forcing,which weakened the land-ocean thermal contrast,and thus inhibited the development of monsoons.As rainfalls have become more temporally concentrated,some parts of Southeast

110、 Asia have suffered from a temporary increase in aridity.The number of mean consecutive dry days in Southeast Asia increased from 25.8 in the pre-industrial period to 27.6 in 1995-2014.Climate Resilience for Energy Security in Southeast Asia Trends and projections of climate change PAGE|19 I EA.CC B

111、Y 4.0.The increase in dry days and decrease in wet days resulting from the temporal concentration of rainfall events has caused temporary droughts in some parts of Southeast Asia.In the Philippines,for example,droughts increased during the dry season over the period between 1951 and 2010,despite the

112、 growth in precipitation during the wet season.According to the INFORM Risk Index,Thailand,Cambodia,Viet Nam and the Philippines have a higher level of drought risk than the world average.Similarly,the Association of Southeast Asian Nations(ASEAN)reported that more than 70%of the Southeast Asian lan

113、d area was affected by droughts from 2015-2020.Level of drought risk for Southeast Asian countries,2024 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Notes:The level of climate hazard is assessed based on the indicator“Droughts”.The minimum value is given 0 on the scale,while the maximum value is given 10.A detailed methodology of

114、 the indicator is described on the INFORM Risk Index page.In this report,the risk is defined as Low(0-2.99),Medium(3-6.99)and High(7-10).Source:IEA analysis based on INFORM(2021),INFORM Risk Index 2024.During the years of El Nio events,the risk of droughts increases further in Southeast Asia.In 2016

115、,for instance,an El Nio episode contributed to a severe drought that resulted in the worst water crisis in 60 years in Indonesia,the Philippines and Thailand.When El Nio prevailed in 2018-2020,ASEAN reported that more than 200 million people were exposed to severe drought,representing around 30%of t

116、he regions population.Climate models show a high level of uncertainty in drought projections for Southeast Asia due to the counteracting factors of projected increases in overall precipitation and temperature.In addition,human activities such as reservoir operation and water abstraction could add di

117、fficulties in assessing drought projections due to their profound effect on river flow and drought impacts in Southeast Asia.Climate Resilience for Energy Security in Southeast Asia Trends and projections of climate change PAGE|20 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Wind Surface wind speed remains stable but tropical cy

118、clones are becoming more intense In Southeast Asia,mean surface wind speeds have been stable while global mean wind speed has weakened over most land areas with good observational coverage.Historical observations show that surface wind speed in Southeast Asia did not change significantly from 4.1 m/

119、s in the pre-industrial period(1850-1900)to 4.2 m/s between 1995 and 2014.Climate projections present that mean wind speed in the region would remain stable in all emissions scenarios,recording 4.1 m/s to 4.2 m/s average wind speeds across the century.Although the mean surface wind speeds remain sta

120、ble,Southeast Asia is highly exposed to high-speed winds such as tropical cyclones(which is also called typhoon in the region).Particularly,the Philippines,Viet Nam and Myanmar are considered to have the highest risks among Southeast Asian countries.Level of tropical cyclone risk for Southeast Asian

121、 countries,2024 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Notes:The level of climate hazard is assessed based on the indicator“Tropical cyclone”.The minimum value is given 0 on the scale,while the maximum value is given 10.A detailed methodology of the indicator is described on the INFORM Risk Index page.In this report,the ris

122、k is defined as Low(0-2.99),Medium(3-6.99)and High(7-10).Source:IEA analysis based on INFORM(2021),INFORM Risk Index 2024.Climate models show that tropical cyclones in Southeast Asia would decrease in frequency but increase in intensity.The proportion of intense tropical cyclones(Categories 3-5)and

123、cyclone-related heavy precipitation have increased over the past four decades.Global warming is considered as the source of the intensification of tropical cyclones as warmer ocean temperatures fuel the Climate Resilience for Energy Security in Southeast Asia Trends and projections of climate change

124、 PAGE|21 I EA.CC BY 4.0.intensification of tropical cyclones with more moisture in the air.If global warming continues,the proportion of intense tropical cyclones(Category 4-5)is likely to increase.The latest IPCC report projects that the proportion of intense cyclones is likely to increase by 10%in

125、 a scenario of 1.5C warming and by 30%in a scenario over 4C warming,and Southeast Asia would not be an exception.Sea level rise The rate of sea level rise has accelerated,threatening the coastlines of Southeast Asia The increase in global temperatures has contributed to a rise in the global mean sea

126、 level.Since 1901,the global mean sea level has risen by 0.2 m.The rate of sea level rise accelerated from 1.3 mm per year on average from 1901-1971 to 1.9 mm from 1971-2006,and to 3.7 mm from 2006-2018.Glacial melt was the largest factor contributing to sea level rise,accounting for 40%of the rise

127、between 1901 and 2018,and thermal expansion of ocean is the second-largest factor,accounting for 38%of the annual global mean sea level rise.In 2023,global mean sea level reached a record high with a current annual rate of rise of 4.4 mm per year.Southeast Asia,which has a long coastline,could be af

128、fected by sea level rise and associated events(e.g.storm surges,coastal erosion and saltwater intrusion).Currently,77%of the regions population lives along the coastline and 60%of GDP comes from the region.The IPCC projects that sea level rise in the oceans around Southeast Asia could be higher by 0

129、.4 m to 0.7 m in 2081-2100 relative to the 1995-2014 period.If global warming and sea level rise are not mitigated on time,almost 90%of Viet Nams population,54%of Thailands population,24%of the Philippines population,and 21%of Indonesias population could be severely affected by sea level rise.At reg

130、ional level,229 million people and 39%of the population living in coastal areas are assessed to be vulnerable because they fall below the high tide line.Several Southeast Asian countries are taking action to prepare for significant sea level rise.In Viet Nam,Ho Chi Minh city developed a plan to erec

131、t extensive tidal defence against the rising level of tides.In Singapore,the government claims that the country needs to spend at least USD 72 billion to construct coastal defences and build other adaptation measures to sea level rise.Around the northern Philippines,sea level rise is more marked tha

132、n in other areas.In the Manila Bay area in the Philippines,sea levels increased by 14.4 mm per year from 1965 to 2022,roughly four times the yearly global average rate of 3.4 mm per year.The impacts of climate-induced sea level rise in Manila Bay are Climate Resilience for Energy Security in Southea

133、st Asia Trends and projections of climate change PAGE|22 I EA.CC BY 4.0.amplified by land subsidence through intensive groundwater pumping causing these rapid but highly localised developments.To reduce coastal hazards,the Philippines are mainly using grey and green infrastructure.The Philippines De

134、partment of Public Works and Highways has built and restored sea walls for protection,such as a 937 m long sea wall in Manila Bay.The Department of Environment and Natural Resources additionally targets the rehabilitation and conservation of mangroves for coastal protection.Sea level rise by climate

135、 scenario,2081-2100 relative to 1995-2014 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Note:Sea level rise(in metres)for 2081-2100 relative to 1995-2014 for scenarios Below 2C(top)and Above 3C(bottom).Sources:IEA analysis based on IPCC(2021),Working Group I Interactive Atlas.Climate Resilience for Energy Security in Southeast Asi

136、a Climate change impacts on energy supply PAGE|23 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Climate change impacts on energy supply The energy supply in Southeast Asia has substantially increased,supporting the expansion of the regions economic development and population growth.Between 2000 and 2020,Southeast Asias overall en

137、ergy supply increased by about 80%.The growth in energy supply is largely driven by fossil fuels,which more than doubled during the period.Renewable energy also recorded a notable growth of almost 2.5 times.In parallel with the energy supply growth,climate change impacts have also increased.Southeas

138、t Asia is one of the regions most affected by climate change,experiencing more frequent heatwaves,intense rainfalls,droughts,tropical cyclones and sea level rise.Such climate impacts are adding pressure on energy systems that are already straining to meet the demands of economic growth,energy securi

139、ty and social welfare.Fossil fuels,which are currently serving a dominating role in Southeast Asia,could be disrupted by floods,sea level rise and tropical cyclones.Heavy precipitation and associated floods can interrupt the mining of critical minerals,which are key elements for clean energy technol

140、ogy deployment.Total primary energy supply by fuel and by country in Southeast Asia,2000-2020 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Notes:EJ=exajoule;2020e=estimated values for 2020.Source:IEA(2022),Southeast Asia Energy Outlook 2022.Climate Resilience for Energy Security in Southeast Asia Climate change impacts on energy

141、supply PAGE|24 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Fossil fuels With economic development,urbanisation and population growth,fossil fuel demand is increasing in Southeast Asia.Coal recorded the largest growth in terms of its share in total energy supply between 2000 and 2020 from 8%to 26%.Demand for oil in Southeast Asi

142、a surged by more than 40%between 2000 and 2020 despite a reduction in its portion of the total energy supply from 40%to 32%.Natural gas consumption also increased by more than 80%between 2000 and 2020 and reached 162 bcm in 2021,although it maintained a 20%proportion of the overall energy mix.The us

143、e of natural gas in the economy is mostly driven by the electrical and industrial sectors.By 2030,fossil fuel demand is projected to increase in the region,driven by a growing population,rising standards of living and rapid urbanisation.If todays policy setting remains,coal,oil and gas demand is set

144、 to increase by more than 30%by 2030.With policies and measures to ensure sustainable development,coal demand is projected to decrease by 17%,while oil and gas demand would increase by 22%and 38%respectively,driven by the expansion of car fleets,use of oil use in petrochemical feedstock and increasi

145、ng gas demand for power generation.Heavy rainfalls and flood risks add challenges to coal production Coal provided a quarter of total primary energy supply in Southeast Asia in 2020.Nearly 90%of Southeast Asias coal production comes from Indonesia,the third-largest coal producer in the world.About h

146、alf of the coal produced in Southeast Asia is consumed within the region,with the rest being exported mainly to the Peoples Republic of China(hereafter“China”)and India.Policy efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from coal production have been made in Indonesia,with the international financing

147、 support of Just Energy Transition Partnerships.Coal production areas in Southeast Asia are projected to face notable challenges from climate change,such as more frequent heavy rainfalls.Nearly half of coal mines are projected to see over 10%increases in one-day maximum precipitation in 2041-2060 un

148、der a low-emissions scenario(Below 2C).If climate change is not mitigated,over 75%of coal mines are projected to see more than 10%increases in 2041-2060(Around 3C and Above 3C).The projected increase in exposure of coal mines to intense rainfalls can add concerns to coal production.If coal is soaked

149、 at mines or stockyards by excessive precipitation or floods,its quality declines.Heavy rainfall and floods can also suspend production,force operation at reduced capacity or cause physical damage to mines.For instance,a week of heavy rain in 2015 in northern Viet Nam,where most of the coal output o

150、f the country is produced,caused water run-off Climate Resilience for Energy Security in Southeast Asia Climate change impacts on energy supply PAGE|25 I EA.CC BY 4.0.from 16 open-pit coal mines.Thousands of tonnes of coal were swept away in the floods and two mines were completely submerged,accordi

151、ng to the Viet Nam National Coal and Mineral Industries Corporation.The floods also led to an ecological disaster from the potentially hazardous toxic slurry from coal mines.In Indonesia,heavy rains hit a major coal production site,Kalimantan,and caused flooding at several mines,raising the coal pri

152、ce in 2021.Some illegal coal mines were accused of aggravating flood risks by exacerbating deforestation.In order to reduce the flooding risk in coal production areas,some coal mining production sites are introducing resilience measures.In Viet Nam,for instance,restoration of trees and construction

153、of dykes and dams have been implemented to prevent soil and rock from being swept away during the floods.In addition,hundreds of households in Quang Ninh province were migrated to ensure their safety as the risk of floods and landslides in coal mining areas increased.Given that higher greenhouse gas

154、 emissions would lead to more intense precipitation,a transition towards low-emissions sources is an effective and fundamental solution.In the pathway towards sustainable energy development with clean energy technologies and universal energy access,Southeast Asias coal demand is expected to drop to

155、79 mtce in 2050 from 257 mtce in 2020.The reduced reliance on coal and diversification of energy sources would contribute to building a more resilient energy supply system by avoiding a further increase in emissions which can add flood risks to coal mines.Share of coal mines exposed to more intense

156、precipitation,2021-2100 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Note:The graphs show the share of coal mine production capacities exposed to the increase in intense precipitation,using the projected changes in one-day maximum precipitation,compared with the level of the pre-industrial period(1850-1900).Sources:IEA analysis b

157、ased on S&P Global(2021),Market Intelligence Platform(database)and IPCC(2021),Working Group I Interactive Atlas.Climate Resilience for Energy Security in Southeast Asia Climate change impacts on energy supply PAGE|26 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Coal mines exposed to more intense precipitation,1850-1900,1981-2010

158、 and 2081-2100 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Sources:IEA analysis based on S&P Global(2021),Market Intelligence Platform(database)and IPCC(2021),Working Group I Interactive Atlas.Refineries in coastal areas are exposed to increasing risks of coastal flooding and storm surges with sea level rise and intensification

159、of tropical cyclones Over 90%of the refining capacity of Southeast Asia is located in coastal areas exposed to coastal flooding and storm surges.Around 42%of the total refining capacity is located in low-elevation areas of below 10 m over the sea surface which storm surge may reach.The share of low-

160、elevated refineries in Southeast Asia is notably higher than that of the world,34%.Thus,Southeast Asian refineries are considered more exposed to the effects of sea level rise and intensification of tropical cyclones than others.Climate Resilience for Energy Security in Southeast Asia Climate change

161、 impacts on energy supply PAGE|27 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Sea level rise can raise a concern for coastal flooding and storm surges for refineries in low-lying areas.Sea level rise is one of the important drivers of coastal floods and higher storm surges,which can cause physical damage to refineries and lead

162、to temporary shutdowns.Although the sea level rise could be limited in a low-emissions scenario,in a high-emissions scenario over 80%of low-elevation refineries are projected to face a sea level rise of 0.2 m to 0.4 m in 2041-2060 and 0.4 m to 0.6 m in 2081-2100.Low-elevation refineries capacity exp

163、osed to sea level rise,2021-2100 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Note:The graph shows the exposure to sea level rise of refineries located in low-elevation areas(i.e.located at a level below 10 m),representing 42%of the total refining capacity,which is equivalent to 2 318 mb/d.The sea level rise is calculated relativ

164、e to 1995-2014.Sources:IEA analysis based on S&P Global(2021),Market Intelligence Platform(database)and IPCC(2021),Working Group I Interactive Atlas.Tropical cyclones,which are projected to intensify due to climate change,may add the risk of physical damage to refineries in coastal and offshore area

165、s.Tropical cyclones are considered the main driver of coastal floods and storm surges together with sea level rise,and around 10%of refineries in Southeast Asia are located in tropical cyclone-prone areas.In 2019,for instance,tropical storm Pabuk led to a temporary shutdown of oil and gas production

166、 in the Gulf of Thailand,although the storm was comparatively weaker than normal tropical cyclones.Given that Thailands refinery capacities are concentrated in the Gulf of Thailand,where tropical cyclones and storms occasionally pass,the intensification of tropical cyclones may require more resilien

167、ce measures for refineries.To cope with the adverse impacts of tropical cyclones,some countries have already assessed tropical cyclones impacts on oil production and transportation.For instance,the Petroleum Authority of Thailand assessed the potential reduction Climate Resilience for Energy Securit

168、y in Southeast Asia Climate change impacts on energy supply PAGE|28 I EA.CC BY 4.0.of oil supply due to natural disasters,including tropical cyclones,and Malaysia developed a multi-hazard early warning system.Share of refinery capacity exposed to tropical cyclones IEA.CC BY 4.0.Note:The wind speed c

169、ategories are divided according to the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale,a 1 to 5 rating based on a hurricanes maximum sustained wind speed.To be classified as a hurricane,a tropical cyclone must have a wind speed of at least 119 km/h,after which it falls into Category 1.Hurricanes rated Category

170、3 and higher(177 km/h)are known as major hurricanes.Sources:IEA analysis based on S&P Global(2021),Market Intelligence Platform(database)and UNDRR(2015),Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction.Climate change impacts on shipping Shipping and ports of Southeast Asia serve an important role

171、 in global and regional trade and transportation,including fossil fuels.The region has more than 500 international seaports,and more than one-third of global shipping passes through Southeast Asian waters.They also play an important role in international travel,transferring 5.3 million international

172、 sea passengers per year(as of 2018).However,shipping is exposed to climate change impacts.Rising sea levels are likely to require more protection and management for ports,channels and coastal infrastructure against higher water levels,tides and storm surges.Moreover,intensified tropical cyclones an

173、d heavy rainfalls could disrupt shipping and port operation.In December 2021,for instance,heavy rainfall and flooding severely damaged Klang seaport,the second-largest port in Southeast Asia,and delayed port and logistics operations.In Viet Nam,due to tropical cyclone Noru,the Dung Quat oil refinery

174、,which was in Norus path,temporarily suspended crude oil imports and fuel exports in 2022.Such climate-driven disruptions to shipping and port operation may lead to higher energy consumption.Climate impacts can cause port congestion,shipping with Climate Resilience for Energy Security in Southeast A

175、sia Climate change impacts on energy supply PAGE|29 I EA.CC BY 4.0.alternative routes or substitution to more energy-intensive transport(such as aircraft and road transport)and consequently reduce energy efficiency for shipping.In 2021,container ships heading to China had to take alternative routes

176、because Typhoon Kompasu scattered ships out of Hong Kong and Shenzhen.Vessel congestion rates in Southeast Asian ports jumped by 22%above normal in Singapore,and by 30%in Malaysias Tanjung Pelepas,resulting in energy and economic losses.Critical minerals Critical minerals are fundamental to clean en

177、ergy transitions and energy security.Global demand for critical minerals linked to clean energy technologies is set to rise sharply,spurred by growth in renewables,EVs,battery storage and electricity networks.Under current policy settings,the IEA Stated Policies Scenario(STEPS),mineral demand for cl

178、ean energy technologies doubles by 2030.In the IEA Announced Pledges Scenario(APS),global demand for critical minerals is even higher,and it almost triples in the IEA Net Zero Emissions by 2050(NZE)Scenario by 2030.Southeast Asia plays a significant role in supply for nickel,tin,rare earth,copper an

179、d other critical minerals.Indonesia and the Philippines are the two largest nickel ore producers in the world.Indonesia and Myanmar are the second-and third-largest tin producers.Myanmar accounts for around 10%of global rare earth elements production.The mining sector has historically been an import

180、ant contributor to the economy in Southeast Asia,although investment in mineral exploration has declined in recent years.If the region can develop domestic value chains for multiple industries,the market size from mining and refining production of nickel,copper,rare earth elements(REEs),cobalt and l

181、ithium in Southeast Asia could more than double to nearly USD 154 billion by 2040.Climate Resilience for Energy Security in Southeast Asia Climate change impacts on energy supply PAGE|30 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Market size of mining and refining production in Southeast Asia,2023-2040 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Note:The m

182、arket value is calculated by multiplying Southeast Asias production volume in the base case in each year with todays market price for final products.The base case includes production from existing assets and those under construction,along with projects that have a high chance of moving ahead as they

183、 have obtained all necessary permits,secured financing,and/or established offtake contracts.Source:IEA(2024),Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2024.However,increasing climate risks,particularly related to water-related hazards,are becoming a concern to critical minerals mining.Critical minerals extra

184、ction and processing are generally water-intensive.Although Southeast Asia is likely to see an overall increase in total precipitation,the geographical and temporal concentration of precipitation may halt mining operations and damage mining facilities.Increasing floods and heavy rainfalls in the reg

185、ion could become a concern to the global nickel supply in the long term Nickel is a vital raw material in the production of stainless steel and batteries that are widely used in renewable energy deployment.The expansion of clean energy technologies drove the rapid growth in global demand for nickel

186、by 30%between 2018 and 2023,and doubled the nickel market size.In the NZE Scenario,the demand for nickel is projected to double from the 2023 level.Southeast Asia is delivering a dominant role in nickel supply today.Indonesia and the Philippines represent nearly two-thirds of the global output of mi

187、ned nickel,which has significantly increased from around 40%in 2018.Indonesia alone accounts for around 40%of global output of refined nickel,which jumped from around 13%in 2018.Southeast Asian share in nickel production is expected to Climate Resilience for Energy Security in Southeast Asia Climate

188、 change impacts on energy supply PAGE|31 I EA.CC BY 4.0.continue increasing in the coming years.By 2040,Indonesia could account for nearly 75%of mined nickel production and 60%of refined nickel production.Production trends for mined and refined nickel,2020-2023 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Note:Refining includes f

189、inal refined products and sulphate production.Source:IEA(2024),Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2024.Climate change could become an emerging threat to nickel production in Southeast Asia by increasing the risk of flooding if resilience measures are not in place.Most of the nickel mines in Southeast

190、Asia are projected to see more frequent heavy rainfall events and a wetter climate.Although the level of exposure of nickel mines is projected to be comparatively low until 2041-2060,changes in precipitation are likely to become more visible around the end of the 21st century.One-third of nickel min

191、es in Southeast Asia are likely to see a more than 10%increase in one-day maximum precipitation by 2100 compared with the pre-industrial period in a low-emissions scenario.If climate change is not mitigated on time,almost all nickel mines in the region would see over 10%increases or more(in Around 3

192、C scenario and Above 3C scenario).The escalating risks of pluvial floods due to heavy rainfalls could be a long-term threat to reliable supply of nickel,which is already occasionally experiencing disruptions associated with extreme weather events.Indeed,heavy rainfall in 2019 led to floods on the In

193、donesian island of Sulawesi,a major hub for nickel mining,and caused several mines to shut down for weeks.Nickel prices worldwide jumped to two-week highs on fears of further supply disruptions.In August 2020 and in September 2023 heavy rain caused flooding that briefly shut down the Weda Bay smelte

194、r complex,one of the main nickel processing hubs in Indonesia.Moreover,the increasing intensity and frequency of heavy rainfalls are raising concerns about the run-off of toxic waste and pollution from nickel mines,as well as siltation of streams.Climate Resilience for Energy Security in Southeast A

195、sia Climate change impacts on energy supply PAGE|32 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Share of nickel production exposed to more intense precipitation,2021-2100 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Note:The graphs show the share of nickel mine production capacities exposed to the increase in intense precipitation,using the projected changes

196、 in one-day maximum precipitation,compared with the level of the pre-industrial period(1850-1900).Sources:IEA analysis based on S&P Global(2021),Market Intelligence Platform(database)and IPCC(2021),Working Group I Interactive Atlas.Climate Resilience for Energy Security in Southeast Asia Climate cha

197、nge impacts on energy supply PAGE|33 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Nickel production exposed to more intense precipitation,1850-1900,1981-2010 and 2081-2100 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Sources:IEA analysis based on S&P Global(2021),Market Intelligence Platform(database)and IPCC(2021),Working Group I Interactive Atlas.Copper min

198、es in Southeast Asia are exposed to more frequent intense precipitation Copper is used extensively in electricity networks,and it is an essential component for low-emissions power generation technologies such as solar PV modules,wind turbines and batteries.Global copper production is projected to se

199、e the largest increase of any critical mineral in terms of absolute volume by 2030.As copper production increases,the role of Southeast Asia becomes more important.Currently,Indonesia,Myanmar and the Philippines collectively account for around 5%of global production.Climate Resilience for Energy Sec

200、urity in Southeast Asia Climate change impacts on energy supply PAGE|34 I EA.CC BY 4.0.However,climate change poses an increasing risk to copper production,causing a majority of the copper mines in Southeast Asia to be more exposed to intense rainfalls and associated disasters such as floods and lan

201、dslides.Operations at Grasberg mine,the biggest copper mine in Indonesia and second-largest in the world,for instance,were suspended for more than two weeks after heavy rainfalls and landslides in February 2023.Although almost all components of the energy supply chain are projected to see more adver

202、se impacts of climate change with high emissions,the difference between low-and high-emissions pathways is especially notable for copper production.While changes in one-day maximum precipitation are likely to be less than 20%in a low-emissions scenario(Below 2C)until the end of the century,almost 70

203、%of copper mines in the region could experience more than a 40%increase in a high-emissions scenario(Above 3C).Share of copper production exposed to more intense precipitation,2021-2100 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Note:The graphs show the share of copper mine production capacities exposed to the increase in inten

204、se precipitation,using the projected changes in one-day maximum precipitation,compared with the level of the pre-industrial period(1850-1900).Sources:IEA analysis based on S&P Global(2021),Market Intelligence Platform(database)and IPCC(2021),Working Group I Interactive Atlas.Climate Resilience for E

205、nergy Security in Southeast Asia Climate change impacts on energy supply PAGE|35 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Copper production exposed to more intense precipitation,1850-1900,1981-2010 and 2081-2100 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Sources:IEA analysis based on S&P Global(2021),Market Intelligence Platform(database)and IPCC(2021),

206、Working Group I Interactive Atlas.Climate change impacts on bioenergy Modern bioenergy*increased its share in the energy mix of Southeast Asia,as a key part of energy transitions.While the share of traditional use of biomass*in Southeast Asias primary energy supply in 2020 was halved from what it wa

207、s in 2010 to about 5%(1.5 EJ),modern bioenergy recorded a more than 50%increase accounting for over 7%(about 2.3 EJ).The share of modern bioenergy is expected to grow further until 2050 to near 5 EJ by 2050*to meet climate and sustainable development goals,replacing fossil fuels in transport,industr

208、y,clean cooking and Climate Resilience for Energy Security in Southeast Asia Climate change impacts on energy supply PAGE|36 I EA.CC BY 4.0.power generation.In this path,modern bioenergy would provide 15%of total final energy consumption by 2050,with power generation using solid modern bioenergy gro

209、wing from 40 TWh in 2020 to 200 TWh by 2050,and advanced biofuel use reaching about 800 PJ by 2050.Several countries in the region are already playing a leading role in global bioenergy production with robust industries and policies.Indonesia produces 8.1 billion litres of biodiesel each year,making

210、 it the third-largest biofuel producer in the world,while Malaysia produces 1.5 billion litres of biodiesel,exporting together 500 million litres annually.Climate change which alters the precipitation patterns may affect the production of biomass in the region,although its net effects would vary by

211、country,by crop and by adaptation measures taken by producers.Experts estimate that increased levels of CO2 in the atmosphere would lead to improved vegetation growth and productivity,but increasing heat and changing precipitation patterns may constrain the production of biomass in at least some cou

212、ntries in Southeast Asia.For instance,palm oil production in Indonesia and Malaysia is likely to suffer from the projected increase in droughts,floods,wildfires and sea levels,despite the overall increase in total precipitation.Among others,prolonged droughts are already posing challenges to palm oi

213、l production by lowering palm yields and raising prices,as seen in the cases of Indonesia and Malaysia in 2015,2019 and 2023.Other Southeast Asian countries including Cambodia,Thailand,the Philippines and Viet Nam are also facing issues related to droughts,which threaten consistently high crop yield

214、s,reduce photosynthesis and change the chemical composition of crops.In 2016,for example,a drought in Viet Nams Central Highland region led to a 60%decline in crop production.*Modern bioenergy comprises solid bioenergy mostly derived from organic waste sources,such as forestry residues or municipal

215、solid waste,liquid biofuels,and biogas and biomethane.*Traditional use of biomass refers to the use of solid biomass with basic technologies,such as a threestone fire or basic improved cookstoves,often with no or poorly operating chimneys.*Includes all solid bioenergy products,except the traditional

216、 use of biomass.Power sector Over the past two decades,power generation has almost tripled in Southeast Asia.Urbanisation has been one of the key drivers of the increase in electricity consumption,with the buildings sector seeing the largest increase,notably due to air conditioning and ownership of

217、appliances such as refrigerators.This growth was mainly supported by coal-fired power generation,which was multiplied by six,accounting for 43%of power generation in 2022.Natural gas and renewables provided the rest of the electricity generation,with natural gas covering 29%and renewables 27%.Climat

218、e Resilience for Energy Security in Southeast Asia Climate change impacts on energy supply PAGE|37 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Electricity generation and consumption in Southeast Asia is likely to grow rapidly in all scenarios,while growing climate change impacts put strains on the power system.Rising temperatur

219、es,changing precipitation patterns,sea level rise and shifting wind speeds are raising new questions about the intersection between climate change impacts and the power system.They are likely to affect every aspect of the power system from the potential,efficiency and reliability of power generation

220、 to the physical resilience of energy infrastructure.Given that extreme weather events(e.g.floods,droughts,heatwaves,tropical cyclones)are projected to become more frequent and intense as climate change continues,a comprehensive understanding of climate impacts is crucial to ensure electricity secur

221、ity.Rising temperatures and heatwaves affect solar PV and gas power plants,and reducing emissions is key Climate change leads to increased global mean surface temperature,4 which impacts precipitation,winds,sea level rise,and extreme weather events.Average temperatures in Southeast Asia have risen e

222、very decade since 1960.The average land surface temperature in the region increased from 25.02C in 1979-1988 to 25.76C in 2013-2022.The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)projects that Southeast Asia are likely to continue experiencing an increase in annual mean surface temperature by ar

223、ound 1.6C until the end of the century relative to pre-industrial levels under the Below 2C scenario and by around 3.3C in the Above 3C scenario.The changes in ambient temperatures could directly affect energy systems,notably through changing seasonal lengths and the increasing frequency and intensi

224、ty of extreme heatwaves.Power generation from solar PV is subject to weather and climate conditions.Solar PV relies on irradiance and is affected by heat.Although potential changes in solar radiation due to climate change could be minor,the negative impacts of extreme heat are growing.Higher tempera

225、tures lead to a lower voltage and less solar power generation,as most solar PV works best in cool,sunny weather around 25C.Moreover,solar power generation efficiency degrades as the surface temperature of solar PV panels increases generally from-0.3%to-0.5%per degree above 25C.Extreme heat can also

226、increase the electrical resistance of the circuits and damage cells and other materials,while adding heat stress to inverters.In Southeast Asia,solar PV is rapidly growing.In 2022,solar PV generated 45 TWh,which accounts for 4%of total installed capacity in the Association for Southeast Asian Nation

227、s(ASEAN).Viet Nam,Thailand and Malaysia have the largest installed solar PV capacity in 2022 and the future growth is likely to be led by Thailand and 4 Average temperature at the surface of land and ocean areas.Climate Resilience for Energy Security in Southeast Asia Climate change impacts on energ

228、y supply PAGE|38 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Myanmar.The IEAs Sustainable Development Scenario(SDS)5 estimates the power generation of solar PV in the region would reach 163 TWh by 2030 and 732 TWh by 2050.However,rising temperatures due to climate change are likely to challenge electricity generation using sola

229、r PV in the region.Although most installed solar PV capacity in Southeast Asia is located in places with annual mean temperatures of 25C-30C suitable for solar PV generation they are projected to experience more frequent extreme heat events in the coming decades.Particularly in a high-emissions scen

230、ario,around two-thirds of solar PV would see more than 20 days of maximum temperature above 35C in 2081-2100,presenting a notable increase from the current level.Moreover,climate models show that around 20%of solar PV might see over 80 days of 35C thresholds by 2100 in the same scenario.Share of sol

231、ar PV exposed to heatwaves,2021-2100 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Note:The graphs show the share of solar PV installed capacities for each level of temperature rise and extreme heat using the number of days with maximum temperature above 35C.Sources:IEA analysis based on Global Energy Monitor(2022),Global Solar Po

232、wer Tracker and IPCC(2021),Working Group I Interactive Atlas.Increasing temperatures could also decrease electricity generation from natural gas power plants.According to the Southeast Asia Energy Outlook 2022,natural gas consumption surged by over 80%between 2000 and 2020,consistently holding a 20%

233、share of the energy mix.Natural gas power plants are generally affected by changes in ambient temperatures since their performance depends on the air mass flow entering the gas turbine compressor.The air mass flow is determined by the density of the air,which decreases when ambient temperature 5 The

234、 SDS delivers on the Paris Agreement goal to limit the temperature to“well below 2C”,alongside the goals on energy access and air pollution.This scenario is consistent with Southeast Asias current announced climate aspirations.Climate Resilience for Energy Security in Southeast Asia Climate change i

235、mpacts on energy supply PAGE|39 I EA.CC BY 4.0.increases.Thus,high ambient temperature negatively affects the performance of natural gas power plants by 0.3-1.0%per degree increase.For instance,Muara Karang natural gas power plants in Indonesia reported a 0.6%decrease in the power output of the open

236、-cycle gas turbine plant with every 1C rise in ambient air temperature above 16C.Rising temperature of cooling water also has negative impacts on generation efficiency,although the impact is marginal compared with the impact of a warmer ambient temperature.A study on the Muara Tawar combined-cycle p

237、ower plant in Indonesia discovered that power output could decrease by around 0.17%for each 1C increase in the temperature of the cooling water drawn from nearby seawater.Climate models project that annual mean temperatures are likely to continue increasing with more frequent extreme heat events.In

238、all scenarios,over 30%of gas power plants are projected to experience more than 40 days of maximum temperature above 35C in 2021-2040.In 2081-2100,the number could jump notably to over 80 days in the Around 3C scenario and over 100 days in Above 3C,while there would be minor changes in Below 2C.Shar

239、e of gas power plants exposed to heatwaves,2021-2100 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Note:The graphs show the share of gas power plants installed capacities for each level of temperature rise and extreme heat using the number of days with maximum temperature above 35C.Sources:IEA analysis based on S&P Global(2021),Ma

240、rket Intelligence Platform(database)and IPCC(2021),Working Group I Interactive Atlas.The analysis shows that limiting the global temperature increase is critically important for the resilient operation of solar PV and natural gas power plants.Climate models warn that both power technologies would be

241、 more exposed to extreme heat if climate change is not mitigated,and the negative climate impacts would be significant given Climate Resilience for Energy Security in Southeast Asia Climate change impacts on energy supply PAGE|40 I EA.CC BY 4.0.that they are sensitive to extreme heat.Solar PV is pro

242、jected to experience 15 days more above 35C thresholds in a low-emissions scenario(Below 2C)by the end of this century compared with the pre-industrial period,and the number could jump to 35 days in a high-emissions scenario(Above 3C).The difference is even more marked with natural gas power plants.

243、They are projected to face 18 extreme heat days more in a low-emissions scenario(Below 2C),and 48 days in a high-emissions scenario(Above 3C).To cope with the increasing heat stress,innovative technologies are increasingly adopted to curtail the adverse impacts on solar PV and natural gas power plan

244、ts.For solar PV,active cooling technologies are increasingly applied,shifting from traditional passive cooling systems based on natural convection.More solar PV projects are considering using cooling methods based on water,enhanced phase change materials,heat pipes and sink cooling.Some natural gas

245、plants use inlet air cooling technologies to reduce ambient air temperature before air enters.Solar PV and natural gas plants exposed to extreme heat compared with the pre-industrial period by climate scenario IEA.CC BY 4.0.Note:The graphs show changes in the number of days with maximum temperature

246、above 35C by 2100 compared with the pre-industrial period(1850-1900).Sources:IEA analysis based on Global Energy Monitor(2022),Global Solar Power Tracker,S&P Global(2021),Market Intelligence Platform(database)and IPCC(2021),Working Group I Interactive Atlas.0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 502021-2040204

247、1-20602061-20802081-2100Changes in the number of days exposed to extreme heatSolar PV Below 2C Around 3C Above 3C0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 502021-20402041-20602061-20802081-2100Climate Resilience for Energy Security in Southeast Asia Climate change impacts on energy supply PAGE|41 I EA.CC BY 4.0.E

248、xtreme heat puts stress on the electricity network,increasing the need for more investment in power grid enhancement Higher ambient temperatures reduce not only power generation efficiency but also transmission and distribution efficiency.Overhead power lines can heat up,expand and sag.Underground p

249、ower cables could experience short circuits due to the combination of extreme heat and droughts,as persistent high temperatures stress cable and joint insulating materials.Critical components such as transformers,inverters and substations are also at higher risk of failure from overheating.Furthermo

250、re,a warmer temperature combined with increasing aridity could augment wildfire risks to electricity grids.For instance,forest fires triggered by sweltering temperatures in central Viet Nam in June 2019 put at risk a power transmission line and prompted a power cut.The state-run Viet Nam Electricity

251、 Group reported power shortages in the northern and central parts of the country due to the forest fires while electrical loads rapidly increased with heat.Climate models show that electricity networks are likely to face more heat-related stress in the long term.In the near term(2021-2040),around on

252、e-third of the electricity network would be subject to over 20 days of above 35C maximum temperature in all scenarios.If climate change is not mitigated,the share would jump significantly to over 80%by 2100 in a high-emissions scenario(Above 3C).A quarter of the global electricity network is project

253、ed to see over 80 days of extreme heat over the 35C threshold.The increasing heat stress requires more investment for power grid enhancement.Upgrades,modernisation and maintenance of electricity networks can limit losses.Smart and advanced digital technologies provide options to reduce the stress an

254、d risks to electricity grids,enabling network operators to manage potential disruptions remotely and on time.Furthermore,connections to distributed energy sources and batteries can provide backup power when electricity network disruption occurs due to extreme heat.Regional integration requires the s

255、caling up of investment in electricity grids,including in interconnections between countries.Grid investment may need to rise from around USD 10 billion in 2022 to USD 20 billion to USD 40 billion in 2050.Climate Resilience for Energy Security in Southeast Asia Climate change impacts on energy suppl

256、y PAGE|42 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Share of electricity grids exposed to heatwaves,2021-2100 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Note:The graphs show the share of electricity grids installed capacities for each level of temperature rise and extreme heat using the number of days with maximum temperature above 35C.Sources:IEA analys

257、is based on OpenStreetMap and IPCC(2021),Working Group I Interactive Atlas.Climate change impacts on electricity demand for cooling Electricity demand in Southeast Asia is increasing rapidly.Electricity demand in the ASEAN countries is among the fastest-increasing globally,rising by more than 6%per

258、year on average over the last 20 years.The increase is mainly driven by population and economic growth.Southeast Asia is home to nearly 9%of the worlds population and accounts for 6%of global GDP.Collective GDP of Southeast Asian countries has nearly tripled since 2000.Climate change may increase el

259、ectricity demand further on top of the projected rise in Southeast Asia.Rising global temperatures can increase electricity usage during peak hours in summer months due to increased cooling needs in buildings.Since the 1980s,the regional mean temperature increased with a higher frequency of warm nig

260、hts and heatwaves.The number of cooling degree days,which indicates the sum of the excess temperatures above a threshold for cooling,increased from around 1 200 in 1850-1900 to around 1 350 in 1981-2010.The combination of escalating temperatures and economic growth in Southeast Asia has led to a lar

261、ge increase in air conditioner and appliance use in the region,making space cooling one of the fastest-growing electricity-consuming end uses in Southeast Asia.Its energy consumption is expected to more than triple by 2040.Consequently,in the past two decades,the buildings sector has seen the larges

262、t increase in electricity consumption among all sectors and as of 2022,accounted Climate Resilience for Energy Security in Southeast Asia Climate change impacts on energy supply PAGE|43 I EA.CC BY 4.0.directly and indirectly for 22%of final energy consumed and for 54%of electricity consumption in So

263、utheast Asia.Residential space cooling units per household and energy use in Southeast Asia in the Stated Policies Scenario,2000-2050 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Note:Projections starting in 2023.With rising temperatures,the electricity demand for cooling will continue to increase.The regional average cooling deg

264、ree days is projected to reach around 2 100 in 2080-2100 under a low-emissions scenario(Below 2C)and nearly 3 000 in a high-emissions scenario(Above 3C).Climate models warn that the number of days above a maximum temperature of 35C may increase by two to five times in Southeast Asia compared with th

265、e pre-industrial period.Although only 18%of households in Southeast Asia had air conditioning in 2019,around 60%of households in Southeast Asia are projected to have access to space cooling by 2040 in the IEA STEPS.By then,the average household could own almost two air conditioning units.This increa

266、se may lead to a large growth in electricity demand and can pose risks to the electricity system.Some Southeast Asian countries are projected to experience more strains than others.Countries with low air conditioning ownership rates(less than 10%as of 2017),such as Cambodia,Indonesia,Lao Peoples Dem

267、ocratic Republic(PDR),Myanmar,the Philippines and Viet Nam,are projected to see a greater increase in air conditioner use in coming decades.The rapidly growing air conditioner use further escalates peak electricity demand in countries where electricity demand is already reaching its peak during the

268、hottest months of summer.Increasing peak electricity demand can pose a serious risk of disruption to the electricity system.In Viet Nam,for instance,soaring peak electricity demand combined with severe heatwaves led to power cuts in May 2023.In northern Viet Nam,where more than 32%of national GDP co

269、mes from,0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.50 5001 0001 5002 0002 5002000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2022 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050Units per householdEnergy in PJEnergy fromresidentialspace coolingResidentialspace coolingClimate Resilience for Energy Security in Southeast Asia Climate change impacts on energy sup

270、ply PAGE|44 I EA.CC BY 4.0.soaring demand combined with decreased hydropower output caused frequent power outages which lasted as long as 26 hours.Increasing annual and seasonal variability in precipitation requires building climate resilience for hydropower Hydropower plays a pivotal role as the la

271、rgest renewable energy source for electricity in Southeast Asia.It accounts for nearly 15%of total electricity generation.The installed hydropower capacity is expected to grow in order to meet the regions growing electricity demand and electricity export opportunities.Hydropower is likely to provide

272、 the most seasonal flexibility in the coming decades,supporting the integration of variable renewable energies.Under the IEAs SDS,hydropower generation is projected to be more than quadrupled in 2050 compared with todays level in Southeast Asia,although its share may decrease.While hydropowers role

273、expands,the impacts of climate change are also growing.Although hydropower dams can help mitigate extreme weather impacts,hydropowers dependence on hydrological conditions implies its vulnerability to climate change.Changes in rainfall patterns and prolonged droughts directly affect water availabili

274、ty for hydropower generation,although the magnitude of their impacts may vary depending on types of hydropower plants.Generally,run-of-river and impoundment hydropower plants tend to be more sensitive to changes in precipitation patterns,while pumped storage hydropower plants tend to be less depende

275、nt on precipitation thanks to their closed-loop operation between two reservoirs.More frequent floods resulting from heavy rainfalls,glacier melt and tropical cyclones may interrupt hydropower operation,and physically damage plants with landslides,sediments and debris.Climate change is projected to

276、affect hydropower generation in Southeast Asia,increasing annual and seasonal variabilities in precipitation and run-off.In all climate scenarios(Below 2C,Around 3C and Above 3C),over half of hydropower installed capacity in Southeast Asia is projected to see a more than 10%increase in one-day maxim

277、um precipitation in 2041-2060 compared with the pre-industrial period.If climate change is not mitigated(Around 3C and Above 3C),40-65%of hydropower installed capacity may experience a 20-40%increase in one-day maximum precipitation in 2081-2100.Climate Resilience for Energy Security in Southeast As

278、ia Climate change impacts on energy supply PAGE|45 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Share of hydropower plants exposed to more intense precipitation,2021-2100 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Note:The graphs show the share of hydropower installed capacities exposed to the increase in intense precipitation,using the projected changes in

279、 one-day maximum precipitation,compared with the level of the pre-industrial period(1850-1900).Sources:IEA analysis based on S&P Global(2021),Market Intelligence Platform(database)and IPCC(2021),Working Group I Interactive Atlas.Temporal concentration of precipitation,with more frequent intense rain

280、falls,raises a concern about hydropower generation.Generally,hydropower generation output can be maximised with consistent water flow year-round aligned with design capacity.However,the temporally concentrated rainfalls with fewer wet days may lead to a decrease in hydropower capacity factor.Accordi

281、ng to IEA analysis based on the IPCC climate models and hydrological models,the hydropower capacity factor in Southeast Asia is projected to fall by around 5%in a low-emissions scenario(Below 2C)by 2100 compared with 1970-2010.In a high-emissions scenario(Above 3C),the hydropower capacity factor may

282、 decline by nearly 9%.The decrease could be more marked in Mekong River basin(e.g.Cambodia,Lao PDR,Myanmar,Thailand and Viet Nam)than other Southeast Asian countries.Some Mekong River basin countries have already experienced electricity supply disruptions due to negative climate impacts on water ava

283、ilability for hydropower generation.In June 2023,reduced water levels in hydropower dams combined with a sharp rise in electricity demand due to extreme heat resulted in power cuts for 26 hours in Viet Nam.Similarly,Cambodia faced a nationwide power shortage in 2019 that was largely attributed to lo

284、w reservoir levels caused by a prolonged drought.Climate Resilience for Energy Security in Southeast Asia Climate change impacts on energy supply PAGE|46 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Changes in hydropower capacity factor in Southeast Asia by country,2021-2100 relative to 1970-2010 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Note:The assessmen

285、t is based on 12 different combinations of general circulation and global hydrological models.Green and purple boxes indicate the range of 67%of modelling results and red dots indicate the average of all modelling results.Governments have several policy options available to minimise the impacts of c

286、limate change on hydropower generation.Governments can build climate resilience by mainstreaming climate change consideration into their decision-making process:mandating assessments of climate change impacts on potential plant sites,incorporating resilience standards into construction codes and est

287、ablishing emergency response plans.Hydropower operators can enhance climate resilience by identifying climate risks of hydropower projects,modernising vulnerable hydropower plants and adopting more flexible operating regimes in response to variabilities.Infrastructure enhancements such as incorporat

288、ing smart technologies,increasing reservoir and spillway capacity,and introducing landslide protection also contribute to greater resilience.Furthermore,international co-operation can play a key role in enhancing climate resilience.Global and regional collaboration is essential for accurate climate

289、projections and data collection.In Southeast Asia,interconnected power networks across different river basins are being explored as a solution to address variabilities in water availability.Cross-border co-operation in water resource Capacity factor change(%)-5.3-7.4-7.2-7.7-40-30-20-10010202021-206

290、02061-21002021-20602061-2100Below 2C Above 3CIndonesia-6.3-4.7-10.1-10.7-40-30-20-10010202021-20602061-21002021-20602061-2100Below 2C Above 3CLao PDR-0.2-2.4-3.1-5.1-40-30-20-10010202021-20602061-21002021-20602061-2100Below 2C Above 3CMalaysia-6.1-3.9-10.0-6.3-40-30-20-10010202021-20602061-21002021-

291、20602061-2100Below 2C Above 3CMyanmarCapacity factor change(%)-3.5-5.4-5.4-5.9-40-30-20-10010202021-20602061-21002021-20602061-2100Below 2C Above 3CPhilippines-9.3-8.7-13.9-14.8-40-30-20-10010202021-20602061-21002021-20602061-2100Below 2C Above 3CThailand-6.9-5.1-9.8-10.4-40-30-20-10010202021-206020

292、61-21002021-20602061-2100Below 2C Above 3CViet Nam-8.6-7.6-10.3-10.4-40-30-20-10010202021-20602061-21002021-20602061-2100Below 2C Above 3CCambodiaClimate Resilience for Energy Security in Southeast Asia Climate change impacts on energy supply PAGE|47 I EA.CC BY 4.0.management further supports the de

293、velopment of climate resilience.Through proactive measures and co-operative efforts,hydropower can become more resilient in the face of climate change.Intensification of tropical cyclones necessitates meticulous planning for renewable power plants and grids Climate models and studies project that tr

294、opical cyclones in Southeast Asia could become more destructive with higher wind speed,longer duration and farther travel distances.Over the past four decades,Southeast Asia experienced the intensification of tropical cyclones,resulting in significant damage.Projections suggest a 10-20%rise in the p

295、roportion of intense cyclones over the 21st century,and the increase would be the most notable in Cambodia,Viet Nam and the Philippines.These projections underscore the urgency for bolstering resilience against tropical cyclones.The intensification of tropical cyclones directly threatens physical re

296、silience of power systems,inflicting damages to assets with severe winds,heavy rainfall,landslides and storm surges.While all energy technologies face risks from tropical cyclones,certain clean energy technologies,including hydropower,solar PV,wind power and electricity grids,are particularly vulner

297、able.Hydropower plants may experience interruptions due to increased sediment,floating debris and torrential streamflow,which impair equipment,threaten dam security and cut generation output.Similarly,inadequately attached solar panels could be dislocated by severe winds,while flying objects pose a

298、threat of damage to panels and equipment.Wind power plants,typically programmed to shut down beyond specific wind speed thresholds(around 20 m/s to 25 m/s),experience significant reductions in power output during cyclones.Moreover,severe wind can damage transmission and distribution lines,poles,and

299、transformers,mainly by toppling trees and branches.In Southeast Asia,the intensification of tropical cyclones has a direct impact on the physical resilience of the electricity system due to its high level of exposure.Nearly half of the hydropower and solar PV installed capacities are situated in cyc

300、lone-prone areas,far exceeding the global average,15%.Furthermore,14%of the hydropower and 17%of the solar PV are installed in the areas where intense tropical cyclones(above Category 3)traversed before.Similarly,43%of wind turbines are located in tropical cyclone-prone areas,while 19%of them are ex

301、posed to the risk of intense tropical cyclones.22%of electricity grids in Southeast Asia are facing a threat of tropical cyclones,while only 11%of the worlds electricity networks are exposed to tropical cyclones.Climate Resilience for Energy Security in Southeast Asia Climate change impacts on energ

302、y supply PAGE|48 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Share of power plants and electricity grids exposed to tropical cyclones IEA.CC BY 4.0.Note:A tropical cyclone is a strong,cyclonic-scale disturbance that has one-minute average surface winds beyond 32 m/s.It is called a hurricane,typhoon or cyclone,depending on geogr

303、aphic location.In this graph,tropical cyclones were categorised according to the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale,a 1 to 5 rating based on a hurricanes maximum sustained wind speed.In general,tropical cyclones at Category 3 and higher(177 km/h)are known as intense tropical cyclones.Sources:IEA an

304、alysis based on S&P Global(2021),Market Intelligence Platform(database),Global Energy Monitor(2022),Global Solar Power Tracker and Global Wind Power Tracker,UNDRR(2015),Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction and OpenStreetMap.Tropical cyclones have already caused substantial physical da

305、mage to power generation assets and grids in Southeast Asia.The 420 MW Xe Pian Xe Namnoy Dam in Lao PDR collapsed when it was 90%complete due to the passage of tropical cyclone Son-Tinh and the summer monsoon in July 2018.Typhoon Odette in 2021 led to an extensive outage at the Visayas and Mindanao

306、islands of the Philippines,leaving over 3 million people without electricity for days by toppling poles and transmission towers.Typhoon Damrey in 2017 caused an electricity cut in Viet Nam,with the collapse of electricity poles due to heavy rainfall and strong winds.Typhoon Haiyan in 2013 made landf

307、all in the Philippines,destroying stations,transmission towers and distribution substations and cutting electricity to millions of people.Given the projected increase in intense tropical cyclones,meticulous planning for renewable power plants and grids is imperative.Mapping cyclone-prone areas can g

308、uide the siting of new renewable energy projects to avoid high levels of exposure and bolster resilience against potential cyclone impacts.Strengthening construction codes to ensure climate resilience of power plants will enhance preparedness against cyclone-related damages.For instance,the Philippi

309、nes and Viet Nam already established their building codes to address severe wind loads on buildings.Climate Resilience for Energy Security in Southeast Asia Climate change impacts on energy supply PAGE|49 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Furthermore,enhancing the resilience of power plants and grids through resilient

310、 designs is crucial.Hydropower plants can enhance their resilience against tropical cyclones by increasing dam height,enhancing reservoir capacity,modifying canals or tunnels,building upstream sediment control facilities,increasing flood fences to protect power stations,strengthening banks,and modif

311、ying the spillway capacities to flush silted reservoirs.Solar power plants could become more resilient with better attachments and advanced sensors to minimise physical damage from tropical cyclones.Wind power plants can enhance their resilience with stronger towers,customised rotor sizes and reinfo

312、rced foundations which can help to cope with the intensification of tropical cyclones.There are also attempts to develop cyclone-proof wind turbines using vertical axis wind turbines with a pilot project in the Philippines.Electricity grids can be also fortified with underground lines,replacing conc

313、rete and wooden poles with galvanised steel poles,installing battery storage solutions,and upgrading towers as well as insulators.In some places,designing strongly meshed networks,which include redundant lines as backups in case of failure in the main line,helps avoid loss of load and enhance resili

314、ence to tropical cyclones.Climate Resilience for Energy Security in Southeast Asia Measures to build climate resilience for energy security PAGE|50 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Measures to build climate resilience for energy security Enhancing climate resilience requires actions from all stakeholders.Energy suppl

315、iers,consumers and authorities are key actors,while science communities,international organisations,civil society and businesses in other sectors are all involved.This chapter provides a non-exhaustive overview of measures that can improve the overall resilience of the energy system to climate impac

316、ts,looking at supply,demand and cross-cutting actions from energy authorities.These measures can be applicable to various stages of climate resilience:readiness,robustness,resourcefulness and recovery(see Figure and Table below).Readiness is the ability to assess,anticipate and prepare for changes i

317、n climate in advance.Robustness is the ability of an energy system to withstand the gradual,long-term changes in climate patterns and continue operation.Resourcefulness is the ability to continue operation during immediate shocks,such as extreme weather events,using alternative resources.Recovery is

318、 the ability to restore the systems function after an interruption resulting from climate hazards.Climate Resilience for Energy Security in Southeast Asia Measures to build climate resilience for energy security PAGE|51 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Conceptual framework of energy sector climate resilience IEA.CC B

319、Y 4.0.Measures to build climate resilience for energy security in Southeast Asia Measure Readiness Robustness Resourcefulness Recovery Build robust climate data and conduct scientific assessments of climate risks and impacts Mainstream climate resilience into policies,regulations and guidelines Mobi

320、lise investment in climate resilience Promote energy efficiency to alleviate climate-related strain on energy systems Deploy nature-based solutions to reduce negative impacts of climate change Improve systems technically and physically to prevent and withstand damage Achieve technological and geogra

321、phical diversification in energy supply Adopt innovative digital technologies for early warning and fast recovery Climate Resilience for Energy Security in Southeast Asia Measures to build climate resilience for energy security PAGE|52 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Climate resilience requires robust climate data a

322、nd scientific assessments Although climate risk and impact assessments are crucial to building resilient energy systems,the assessments for the energy sector are largely lacking in the region.Robust and comprehensive data are prerequisites for scientific climate risk and impact assessments.According

323、 to the State of Climate Change Report,by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations(ASEAN),the inadequate quality of observation data and climate projections in the region is a major bottleneck for conducting climate risk and impact assessments.Energy authorities and governments can additionally su

324、pport such activities by providing high-quality observation data and projections.For instance,Singapores Centre for Climate Research produced detailed climate projections,building upon Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)data and using dynamical downscaling.It includes downscaled informat

325、ion on observed and future changes in climate variables,at precision levels up to 2 km for Singapore and 8 km for all Southeast Asia.It aims to form the basis of climate adaptation planning in Singapore for key sectors,including energy,enabling precise and downscaled assessments.Similarly,Malaysia d

326、eveloped the Malaysian Adaptation Index(MAIN),which summarises the level of climate risks and readiness of each Malaysian state facing climate change impacts.It provides local-level analyses of future climate risks.The aim is to help stakeholders make smart decisions regarding future climate-related

327、 disruptions.After building robust data,accessibility to the data is essential for its application.All stakeholders such as energy suppliers and authorities need access to climate data so that they can conduct climate risk and impact assessments for their specific project sites.In order to support a

328、ccessibility to climate data,the IEA is providing climate and weather information which are relevant to energy supply and demand through its online platform,Weather,Climate and Energy Tracker.All users of this platform can access open data sources for yearly,monthly and daily observation of climate.

329、The Copernicus Interactive Climate Atlas provides global and regional in-depth assessment of past,current and future trends for key climate variables(e.g.temperature,wind and precipitation).Similarly,the World Meteorological Organizations Energy and Meteorological Portal provides assessments of clim

330、ate change risks on renewable energy systems.Governments are also improving data accessibility.Singapore is sharing downscaled data over Southeast Asia with international organisations including the Food and Agriculture Organization and the scientific community.Building upon the scientific and acces

331、sible data,customising climate risk and impact assessments considering the characteristics of the energy sector is needed.In order to conduct climate risk and impact assessments for the energy sector,general climate information should be translated and analysed in a specific Climate Resilience for E

332、nergy Security in Southeast Asia Measures to build climate resilience for energy security PAGE|53 I EA.CC BY 4.0.context.Some initiatives have started to support the energy sectors assessments of climate impacts.For instance,the Lao Peoples Democratic Republic(PDR)worked in collaboration with the Un

333、ited States Agency for International Development to assess the vulnerability of its power sector in the face of climate-and non-climate-related natural hazards as well as human and technological hazards.The report then lists 17 vulnerabilities associated with climate hazards,such as the lack of compliance with design codes,proposing short-,medium-and long-term steps the power sector can follow to