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1、Gas Market Report,Q1-2024The IEA examines the full spectrum of energy issues including oil,gas and coal supply and demand,renewable energy technologies,electricity markets,energy efficiency,access to energy,demand side management and much more.Through its work,the IEA advocates policies that will en

2、hance the reliability,affordability and sustainability of energy in its 31 member countries,13 association countries and beyond.This publication and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory,to the delimitation of international frontiers and bou

3、ndaries and to the name of any territory,city or area.Source:IEA.International Energy Agency Website:www.iea.org IEA member countries:Australia Austria Belgium Canada Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Japan Korea LithuaniaLuxembourg Mexico Netherlands

4、 New Zealand Norway Poland Portugal Slovak Republic INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY Spain Sweden Switzerland Republic of TrkiyeUnited Kingdom United States The European Commission also participates in the work of the IEAIEA association countries:ArgentinaBrazilChinaEgyptIndiaIndonesiaKenyaMoroccoSenegal

5、SingaporeSouth AfricaThailandUkraine Gas Market Report,Q1-2024 PAGE|1 Abstract IEA.CC BY 4.0.Abstract Natural gas markets moved towards a gradual rebalancing in 2023,despite tighter supply fundamentals.Demand reductions in Europe and mature markets in Asia softened the impact of the gas supply shock

6、 of 2022.Prices came down significantly in 2023,although they remained well above their historical averages,both in Asia and Europe.Natural gas markets are expected to see a return to strong growth in 2024,primarily driven by the industrial and power sectors in fast-growing economies in Asia and gas

7、-rich countries in Africa and the Middle East.An expected return to average winter weather conditions,after an exceptionally mild 2023,is expected to support higher demand for space heating in the Northern Hemisphere.However,the continued expansion of renewables and improving nuclear availability ar

8、e likely to temper requirements for gas-fired power generation in mature markets.High inventory levels together with an improving supply outlook are providing gas markets with some reassurance for 2024.However,geopolitical tensions,rising shipping constraints,LNG project delays and adverse weather c

9、onditions could renew market tensions and fuel price volatility.Security of supply for natural gas remains a key aspect of energy policy making and the risks related to our outlook highlight the need to strengthen international co-operation,including in assessing and implementing flexibility options

10、 along gas and LNG value chains.This edition of the quarterly Gas Market Report by the International Energy Agency(IEA)provides a thorough review of market developments in 2023 and a short-term outlook for 2024.It also includes a special spotlight on greenhouse gas emissions along gas supply chains

11、that examines emissions reduction initiatives undertaken by the largest natural gas and LNG producers and consumers.As part of the IEAs Low-Emissions Gases Work Programme,the report includes a section on policy and market developments related to biomethane,low-emissions hydrogen and e-methane.Gas Ma

12、rket Report,Q1-2024 PAGE|2 Table of contents IEA.CC BY 4.0.Table of contents Executive summary.3 Key gas policies and market trends in 2023.7 Gas market update.22 Spotlight on GHG emissions along gas value chains.50 Low-emissions gases.66 Annex.78 Gas Market Report,Q1-2024 PAGE|3 Executive summary I

13、EA.CC BY 4.0.Executive summary Gas Market Report,Q1-2024 PAGE|4 Executive summary IEA.CC BY 4.0.Natural gas markets moved to rebalancing in 2023 and are expected to return to growth in 2024Following the gas supply shock of 2022,natural gas markets moved towards a gradual rebalancing in 2023 due to t

14、imely policy action,market forces and favourable weather conditions.Gas prices decreased significantly compared with their 2022 highs but remain well above their historical averages in Asia and Europe.Hub liquidity improved across all key markets amid higher trading activity.Despite this gradual reb

15、alancing,the market remained tight on the supply side,and prices continued to display high volatility.Natural gas markets are expected to return to growth in 2024,although the expansion of gas use will be capped in import markets by the limited increase in global LNG supply.Natural gas prices declin

16、ed steeply across all key markets in 2023 Asian spot LNG and European hub prices have more than halved since 2022 but remain more than double the averages between 2016-20.Gas supplies remained tight as the increase in global LNG production(+13 bcm)was not sufficient to offset the continued decline i

17、n Russian piped gas deliveries to Europe(-38 bcm).LNG production growth fell short of previous expectations due to a combination of project delays and feedgas supply issues.The United States accounted for 80%of additional LNG supply and became the worlds largest LNG exporter.The softening of market

18、conditions in 2023 was primarily driven by the demand side.The rapid expansion of renewables and improving nuclear availability weighed on natural gas demand in Europe and mature markets in Asia,driving prices lower.Mild winter weather conditions together with gas-saving measures also reduced gas us

19、e in the residential and commercial sectors.As such,global gas demand grew by an estimated 0.5%in 2023,which was not enough to make up the losses of 2022 when demand dropped by 1.5%.Demand growth was primarily supported by China,North America and the gas-rich markets in Africa and the Middle East.Ch

20、ina regained its position as the worlds largest LNG importer with natural gas demand increasing by 7%.In contrast,natural gas consumption in Europe fell by 7%to its lowest level since 1995.Security of supply concerns,affordability issues and emissions reduction efforts are setting the direction for

21、gas-related policies The global energy crisis triggered by Russias invasion of Ukraine put security of supply for natural gas at the forefront of energy policymaking.Policy measures and new regulations enacted in 2022 reinforced gas supply security in key import markets and were complemented by new

22、instruments in 2023.The European Union launched its Joint Gas Purchasing mechanism in April 2023.Four tendering rounds have been organised in 2023 and overall 45 bcm of gas demand was matched with supply via the AggregateEU Gas Market Report,Q1-2024 PAGE|5 Executive summary IEA.CC BY 4.0.platform(eq

23、uating to almost 15%of EU gas demand).Singapore announced in October 2023 plans to centralise natural gas procurement for the countrys power sector.Japans Ministry of Economy,Trade and Indusry launched the countrys Strategic Buffer LNG ahead of the 2023/24 winter season.In China,the National Energy

24、Administration released a draft version of the Natural Gas Utilization Policy,setting out the guiding principles for an“orderly growth in natural gas demand”in the coming years.Recognising the importance of international cooperation to achieve greenhouse gas reductions in gas supply chains,the IEA c

25、arried out a survey on the initiatives,policies and regulations enacted by the largest producers and consumers of both natural gas and LNG.The survey found that key natural gas exporters and importers reinforced their commitment to reduce emissions along gas supply chains,although further efforts ar

26、e needed to harmonise measurement,monitoring,reporting and verification mechanisms and incentivise the investments required to effectively reduce natural gas-related greenhouse gas emissions.Low-emissions gases benefit from strong policy momentum Low-emissions gases continued to benefit from a wide

27、range of policy initiatives in 2023.The European Union launched a new financing mechanism,the Hydrogen Bank,and a political agreement was reached on the hydrogen and decarbonised gas markets package.The United States published its National Clean Hydrogen Strategy and Roadmap and announced USD 7 bill

28、ion of federal support to launch seven Regional Clean Hydrogen Hubs.Japan published its Basic Hydrogen Strategy in June 2023,with the aim to scale-up domestic hydrogen demand to 3 Mt/yr by 2030.India published its National Green Hydrogen Mission and approved a first mandatory blending of compressed

29、biogas into domestic gas supply starting in 2025.Natural gas markets are expected to return to growth in 2024 Global gas demand is forecast to grow by 2.5%in 2024.Demand growth is expected to be concentrated in fast-growing markets in Asia Pacific and gas-rich countries in Africa and the Middle East

30、.The increase in gas demand will be supported by industry,as well as the residential and commercial sectors assuming a return to average winter weather conditions following mild seasonal weather in 2023.Gas-to-power demand is forecast to increase only marginally,as higher gas burn in the Asia Pacifi

31、c region,North America and the Middle East is expected to be partly offset by the continued reductions in Europe.Demand growth in key markets in Asia and Europe will be capped by the limited increase in global LNG supply,which is expected to grow by a mere 3.5%.However,this forecast comes with an un

32、usually wide range of uncertainty.Potential start-up delays at new liquefaction plants,a tense geopolitical context,worsening feedgas issues at specific legacy projects and risks related to shipping all represent downward risks to the current outlook,which could fuel price volatility through 2024.Ga

33、s Market Report,Q1-2024 PAGE|6 Executive summary IEA.CC BY 4.0.Global natural gas trade is expected to return to growth in 2024 IEA.CC BY 4.0.-100-80-60-40-200 20 40 60 80 100201920202021202220232024(forecast)Y-o-y change in bcmRussian piped gas to EuropeOther pipeline imports to EuropeRussian piped

34、 gas to ChinaCentral Asia to ChinaGlobal LNG supplyTotal y-o-y changeLNG floodCovid-yearpost-Covid recovery Gas supply shockGradual rebalancingReturn to growth Year-on-year change in key piped natural gas trade and global LNG supply,2019-2024 Gas Market Report,Q1-2024 PAGE|7 Key gas policies and mar

35、ket trends in 2023 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Key gas policies and market trends in 2023 Gas Market Report,Q1-2024 PAGE|8 Key gas policies and market trends in 2023 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Natural gas prices moderated significantly in 2023Following the all-time highs reached in 2022,natural gas prices moderated significan

36、tly across all key markets in 2023.The steep demand declines recorded in Europe and mature Asian markets provided downward pressure on gas prices.Correlation between Asian and European prices continued to be strong amid an increasingly globalised gas market.In Europe,TTF month-ahead prices declined

37、by almost 70%compared with 2022 to average USD 13/MBtu in 2023,still two and a half times higher than their five-year average during 2016-2020.The steep demand reductions,together with lower gas storage injection needs and healthy LNG inflows,softened natural gas prices despite the continued decline

38、 in Russian piped gas deliveries to the European Union(down by 60%y-o-y).Price volatility remained high,averaging over 100%in 2023,its highest level on record with the exception of 2022.Tight gas supplies,geopolitical tensions and unplanned outages fuelled price volatility throughout the year.The su

39、mmerwinter spread on TTF stood at USD 5/MBtu,more than five times higher than its ten-year average,reflecting the risk premium attached by market participants to winter contracts.Asian spot LNG prices followed a similar trajectory.Platts JKM prices declined by 60%compared with 2022 and averaged USD

40、14/MBtu more than the double their five-year average during 2016-2020.Improving LNG supply availability and lower competition for LNG from Europe softened prices.Price volatility moderated from an all-time high of 160%in 2022 to an average of 75%,remaining well above the 35%average displayed during

41、2016-2020.Similarly to the European market,heightened volatility reflected tight supply fundamentals,risks related to strikes at LNG plants,geopolitical tension and congestion on the Panama Canal in Q4.Platts JKM regained its premium over TTF in the second half of 2023.High European inventory levels

42、 and continued demand reductions drove TTF prices below Platts JKM,with the northeast Asian marker displaying a premium of USD 1.5/MBtu over European hub prices in the second half of 2023.This incentivised stronger LNG flows towards Asian markets ahead of the 2023/24 winter season.Despite the strong

43、 volatility displayed both on the Asian and European markets,the correlation between TTF and Platts JKM remained strong and averaged close to 0.9.This reflects the interconnected nature of regional import markets amid the growing share of destination-flexible LNG supplies.In the United States,Henry

44、Hub month-ahead prices fell by 60%compared with 2022 to average USD 2.7/MBtu aligned with their five-year average during 2016-2020.Strong domestic production together with milder winter temperatures moderated natural gas prices.Price volatility remained above average,supported by the higher share of

45、 natural gas in power generation.Gas Market Report,Q1-2024 PAGE|9 Key gas policies and market trends in 2023 IEA.CC BY 4.0.albeit remaining well above historical averages in Asia and Europe IEA.CC BY 4.0.Note:TTF and Platts JKM average prices take 2016-20 as the reference period.Sources:IEA analysis

46、 based on CME Group(2023),Dutch TTF Natural Gas Month Futures Settlements;CME Group(2023),LNG Japan/Korea Marker(Platts)Futures Settlements;EIA(2023),Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price;ICIS(2023),ICIS LNG Edge;Powernext(2023),Spot Market Data.0 20 40 60 80 100Jan-2021Feb-2021Mar-2021Apr-2021May-2021Ju

47、n-2021Jul-2021Aug-2021Sep-2021Oct-2021Nov-2021Dec-2021Jan-2022Feb-2022Mar-2022Apr-2022May-2022Jun-2022Jul-2022Aug-2022Sep-2022Oct-2022Nov-2022Dec-2022Jan-2023Feb-2023Mar-2023Apr-2023May-2023Jun-2023Jul-2023Aug-2023Sep-2023Oct-2023Nov-2023Dec-2023USD/MBtuTTFPlatts JKMTTF average (2016-20)Platts JKM a

48、verage (2016-20)Key Asian and European natural gas prices,2021-2023 Gas Market Report,Q1-2024 PAGE|10 Key gas policies and market trends in 2023 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Heightened price volatility lingered into 2023 amid tight supply fundamentals IEA.CC BY 4.0.Sources:IEA analysis based on CME Group(2023),Dut

49、ch TTF Natural Gas Month Futures Settlements;CME Group(2023),LNG Japan/Korea Marker(Platts)Futures Settlements;EIA(2023),Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price;ICIS(2023),ICIS LNG Edge;Powernext(2023),Spot Market Data.0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%20132014201520162017201820192020202120222023TTFPlatts JKMH

50、enry HubAnnual average of historical price volatility across key gas markets,2013-2023 Gas Market Report,Q1-2024 PAGE|11 Key gas policies and market trends in 2023 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Hub liquidity improved across all key gas markets in 2023Natural gas hubs enable market participants to trade gas in open,

51、competitive gas markets.Trading is carried out either over the counter(OTC)or through exchanges.Traded products range from short-term contracts to products with a delivery horizon several years ahead(derivatives).Derivatives allow market participants to develop sophisticated risk management strategi

52、es.Hub liquidity ensures that demand from market participants is matched by supply in a time-and cost-efficient manner without causing significant price changes.Greater liquidity improves allocation efficiency,enhances supply security and enables price discovery.One metric used to assess liquidity i

53、s the churn rate,which measures how many times a unit of gas is exchanged before being delivered to end consumers.A churn rate above 10 usually indicates a liquid market.Hub liquidity declined across all key gas markets in 2022.The sharp increase in natural gas prices,accompanied by high volatility,

54、drove up margin requirements posted by central counterparties.1 This in turn increased the cost of holding positions and led to liquidity strains,especially in the case of market players with more limited financial capabilities.Margin calls moderated in 2023 on lower natural gas prices and softer vo

55、latility patterns,which led to a recovery in traded volumes and improved market liquidity.1 Central counterparties(CCPs)interpose themselves between the original counterparties to traded contracts and effectively bear the settlement risk of given transactions.CCPs require margins to cover the value

56、of risk from their participants outstanding transactions.In the United States gas volumes traded on Henry Hub fell by 5%in 2022 to their lowest level since 2015,while the churn rate fell to 40,its lowest level since at least 2012.The drop in gas prices throughout 2023 reduced trading costs and suppo

57、rted a 13%recovery in traded volumes,albeit remaining 3%below the average between 2017 and 2021.The churn rate rose by 11%to 44,standing 11%below the 2017-2021 five-year average.Following a steep decline of almost 20%in 2022,gas trading volumes in the European Union and the United Kingdom rose by cl

58、ose to 30%in 2023,reaching their highest level on record.This recovery was almost entirely led by the Dutch TTF,which saw its traded volumes rise by more than 40%compared to 2022.Consequently,its share of the total European gas trade rose from close to 75%in 2022 to just over 80%in 2023.The churn ra

59、te of the combined EU and UK gas markets rose by 45%y-o-y to an estimated 17,its highest level on record.In Asia,trade in ICE JKM derivatives fell by 40%in 2022.Lower trading costs supported a partial recovery of 15%in their traded volumes in 2023.The churn rate remained low in the JKM area,although

60、 it improved compared to 2022,rising to 3.5.Gas Market Report,Q1-2024 PAGE|12 Key gas policies and market trends in 2023 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Gas trading volumes and churn rates recovered in 2023 IEA.CC BY 4.0.*Northeast Asia=China,Japan and Korea.Sources:IEA analysis based on various sources,including CME

61、(2022),Volume and Open Interest;ICE(2022),Report Center;London Energy Brokers Association(2022),Monthly Volume Reports.Estimated traded volumes and churn rates across key natural gas markets,2019-2023 Gas Market Report,Q1-2024 PAGE|13 Key gas policies and market trends in 2023 IEA.CC BY 4.0.North Am

62、erica and the Middle East led the increase in LNG contracts in 2023LNG contracting continued to experience strong momentum in 2023.Total contracted LNG volumes reached around 90 bcm,standing 10%above their three-year average during 2020-2022.Post-FID projects accounted for 70%of the total volumes co

63、ntracted in 2023.The average duration of all LNG contracts signed in 2023 was around 15 years,highlighting the crucial role long-term contracts play in spreading investment risk between sellers and buyers.European importers increased their contracting activity following Russias invasion of Ukraine,a

64、lbeit their share of total contracts remains low when compared with Asian buyers.Destination flexibility remains a valued option,while pricing structures display a more diverse pattern,as market players pursue more sophisticated risk management strategies.From a suppliers perspective,this strong con

65、tracting activity was primarily supported by North America and the Middle East.In particular,the United States and Qatar have been driving this trend,accounting for 34%and 26%of all contracted volumes in 2023 respectively.Considering only post-FID projects,these countries share was 21%and 39%respect

66、ively.From a buyers perspective,the contracting landscape continued to be dominated by Asia,Europe and portfolio players.Asian buyers accounted for about 38%of the total volumes contracted in 2023,and approximately 40%of contracts signed with post-FID LNG projects.Europe accounted for 31%of the tota

67、l volumes contracted in 2023 and for 30%of the contracts signed with post-FID projects its highest share since at least 2016.This may indicate a preference to limit Europes exposure to the spot market and secure a greater share of LNG supply under long-term contractual structures.Contracts with dest

68、ination flexibility accounted for over 40%of the total volumes contracted in 2022 and 2023 a marked increase from an average of 23%in 2020 and 2021.Destination-fixed contracts are dominated by Asian buyers,with China alone accounting for around 40%of the total volumes contracted in 2023.In contrast,

69、destination-flexible volumes are primarily contracted by European buyers and portfolio players,with a share of 21%and 73%in 2023 respectively.Pricing mechanisms underpinning long-term LNG contracts are becoming more diverse and more complex.The volumes contracted under gas-to-gas indexed agreements

70、have been increasing in recent years.This trend continued into 2023,primarily supported by contracts tied to US-based LNG projects and indexed to Henry Hub.Contracts and heads of agreements signed in 2023 also included agreements indexed to TTF and JKM as well hybrid mechanisms,indicating a move tow

71、ards greater diversification in pricing mechanisms.Traditional oil-linked contracts remain favoured by Middle Eastern suppliers.Gas Market Report,Q1-2024 PAGE|14 Key gas policies and market trends in 2023 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Europes share of LNG contracting is on the rise Volume of contracts concluded in

72、each year split by exporting and importing source,2018-2023 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Notes:Contracted volumes used for the analysis are associated with confirmed export projects that have taken FID,except 2021,2022 and 2023,which include contracted volumes from pre-FID export projects.2023 represents volumes s

73、igned by the end of December 2023.Portfolio volumes are contracted by a market player who may source product from one or multiple regions to fulfil contractual obligations.Source:IEA analysis based on ICIS(2023),ICIS LNG Edge.Gas Market Report,Q1-2024 PAGE|15 Key gas policies and market trends in 20

74、23 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Supply security concerns remained a key driver behind gas policies in 2023The global energy crisis triggered by Russias invasion of Ukraine put natural gas supply security at the forefront of energy policymaking.Policy measures and new regulations enacted in 2022 reinforced gas supp

75、ly security in key import markets and were complemented by new instruments in 2023.The European Union launched its Joint Gas Purchasing mechanism,while Japan introduced the Strategy LNG Buffer system ahead of the 2023/24 winter season.Singapore announced plans to establish centralised gas procuremen

76、t for the power sector.India introduced a unified pipeline tariff system and is currently considering establishing a strategic natural gas reserve to enhance the resilience of its increasingly import-reliant gas market.China continued to expand its natural gas storage capacity and released new draft

77、 policy guidelines on the future of natural gas use,gas infrastructure development and supply security.The European Union launched its Joint Gas Purchasing mechanism The European Union adopted a regulation in December 2022 to enhance solidarity through the better co-ordination of gas purchases.The J

78、oint Gas Purchasing mechanism was launched in April 2023 with the aim of making use of the European Unions collective market power to negotiate better prices with international suppliers.The mechanism establishes a two-step system:Demand aggregation via the AggregateEU platform(participation is volu

79、ntary,except for volume requirements equivalent to 15%of gas storage filling needs or around 13.5 bcm).Joint purchasing:following the matching of demand with supply via the platform,companies can voluntarily conclude contracts with gas suppliers,either individually or jointly(through consortiums).Si

80、nce the launch of the mechanism,four tendering rounds were organised in 2023.Overall,almost 60 bcm of gas demand was aggregated from European companies in the first four rounds and close to 70 bcm of gas was offered by international suppliers.In total,45 bcm of gas demand was matched with supply via

81、 the AggregateEU platform(equating to almost 15%of EU gas demand).Commercial contracts are concluded outside the mechanism,and no information has been publicly disclosed on the actual contracted volumes or price levels(to ensure confidentiality).At the end of November 2023 the European Commission pr

82、oposed a 12-month prolongation of the three emergency measures introduced in 2022,including the Joint Gas Purchasing mechanism.At the end of December 2023 the European Council approved the Commissions proposals and adopted the prolongations.Gas Market Report,Q1-2024 PAGE|16 Key gas policies and mark

83、et trends in 2023 IEA.CC BY 4.0.AggregateEU matched over 40 bcm of gas demand and supply in 2023,equating to close to 15%of EU natural gas demand EA.CC BY 4.0.Sources:IEA analysis based on European Commission(2023),Joint gas purchasing to increase energy security for Europe(Factsheet);European Commi

84、ssion(2023),Remarks by Executive Vice-President efovi on the results of the third joint EU gas purchasing tender.0 20 40 60Supplier bidsOffersnot matchedAggregateddemandDemandnot matchedDemand matchedbcmRound 4Round 3Round 2Round 1Supplier bids,aggregated demand and matched demand via AggregateEU in

85、 2023 Gas Market Report,Q1-2024 PAGE|17 Key gas policies and market trends in 2023 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Singapore is set to centralise gas procurement for the power sector Singapore announced in October 2023 plans to centralise natural gas procurement for the countrys power sector in the wake of the global

86、 energy crisis and heightened market volatility.Gas and electricity supply security are closely interlinked in Singapore,with natural gas accounting for 95%of the countrys power generation mix.According to the assessment of Singapores Energy Market Authority(EMA),power generation companies(gencos)co

87、ntributed to the high electricity price volatility experienced in 2022 as they reduced their gas procurement volumes when natural gas prices were high.In addition,gencos were reluctant to sign long-term gas supply contracts with pricing mechanisms ensuring greater price stability due to the uncertai

88、nties facing natural gas in the long term.Against this background,Singapores Ministry of Trade and Industry and the EMA announced the establishment of a new entity(Gasco)in 2024.Gasco will centralise future procurement of natural gas for the power sector by aggregating gas demand from gencos.Initial

89、ly,Gasco will procure the incremental gas volumes needed for the power sector.Once implemented,centralised procurement will apply to all future gas demand from the power sector,including the renewal of gas contracts.Nevertheless,the centralised gas procurement system will not impact existing contrac

90、ts between gencos and their suppliers.Before the establishment of Gasco in 2024,EMA will launch a consultation with the industry.Japan launched the Security Buffer LNG system ahead of the 2023/24 winter season Japans Ministry of Economy,Trade and Industry(METI)launched the Strategic Buffer LNG(SBL)a

91、head of the 2023/24 winter season.Under this system,METI designates private operators with high LNG procurement capacity as companies authorised to handle SBL operations.In the event of a contingency that could hinder LNG supply,the government will instruct the designated companies to sell their LNG

92、 cargoes to utilities in Japan facing the risk of supply disruption.The government will compensate the designated operator for any losses caused by the instructed trade.JERA was designated as the first supplier under Japans SBL in November 2023.Under the SBL system,the company secured one LNG cargo

93、per month during Japans peak winter months over December 2023-February 2024.Looking ahead,Japan is considering expanding the system through the entire year and to quadruple the volumes held under the SBL to a minimum of 0.84 Mt/yr(or 1.1 bcm/yr)by the mid-2020s.Outside the framework of the SBL,JERA

94、and Koreas KOGAS signed a memorandum of understanding in April 2023 on closer co-operation in LNG trading,with the aim of enhancing stable energy supplies to Japan and Korea.Gas Market Report,Q1-2024 PAGE|18 Key gas policies and market trends in 2023 IEA.CC BY 4.0.India simplifies natural gas pipeli

95、ne tariffs and plans to build strategic gas storage India continued to advance gas market reforms in 2023.The country introduced a unified pipeline tariff system on 1 April,which could benefit consumers located far from domestic gas supply sources and/or LNG terminals.In addition to the market refor

96、ms,India is considering establishing strategic gas reserves to enhance gas supply security.Gas tariff reform to boost transparency and remote access The Petroleum and Natural Gas Regulatory Board(PNGRB)introduced the Unified Tariff(UFT)policy in April 2023 to create a single,consistent and fair tari

97、ff structure for natural gas transport across the country.The UFT policy will apply to a network of 21 pipelines,representing around 90%of pipelines in operation or under construction.The price of transporting gas consists of two components:The unified tariff is a fixed charge determined by the PNGR

98、B and based on the levelised cost of service of the entire pipeline network,and is revised periodically to reflect the changes in pipeline costs and utilisation.The zonal factor is variable and depends on the tariff zone.There are three tariff zones:the first up to 300 km from the gas entry point,2“

99、One Nation One Grid One Tariff”refers to the integration of the regional grids into a national grid and the ambition to increase the share of natural gas in the primary energy mix to 15%by 2030,from the current level of around 6%.the second between 300 km and 1 200 km and the third beyond 1 200 km.T

100、he zonal factors for the three zones are 0.25,0.5 and 1.0 respectively.The zonal tariff,corresponding to the fee paid by the shipper to the pipeline operator for the transport of gas,is calculated by multiplying the unified tariff by the zonal factor.The UFT policy aims to create a more stable,compe

101、titive and transparent pricing regime,which should benefit both gas supply and demand.It is expected to assist the government in achieving the“One Nation One Grid One Tariff”model.2 Gas storage could enhance Indias gas supply security India has no underground storage sites and limited LNG storage ca

102、pacity(1.5 bcm).In May 2023 the countrys Energy Transition Advisory Committee(ETAC)suggested the development of strategic gas storage to strengthen the countrys energy supply security and reduce price volatility.According to media reports,in November 2023 Indias government requested national oil and

103、 gas companies3 to prepare a feasibility study on the potential development of gas storage facilities with a capacity of 3-4 bcm.3 Oil and Natural Gas Corp.(ONGC),Oil India Limited and GAIL.Gas Market Report,Q1-2024 PAGE|19 Key gas policies and market trends in 2023 IEA.CC BY 4.0.By introducing a ne

104、w tariff structure,India aims to achieve a single gas market and encourage funding for gas infrastructure development IEA.CC BY 4.0.*Includes additional goods and services tax of INR 0.02/MBtu on settlement amount between pipeline entities.Note:GCV=gross calorific value.Source:IEA analysis based on

105、Petroleum and Natural Gas Regulatory Board Tariff Order,TO/2023-24/04,dated 27 June 2023 with effect from 1 July 2023.Unified gas pipeline tariff by zone,India,01 July 2023-31 March 2024 Gas Market Report,Q1-2024 PAGE|20 Key gas policies and market trends in 2023 IEA.CC BY 4.0.China refocuses its po

106、licy setting for“orderly growth in natural gas”In 2023 China continued natural gas pricing reforms and released draft policy guidelines on the future use of gas with a renewed focus on supply security.Past emphasis on ramping up the share and role of gas is now giving way to a more tempered approach

107、 of“orderly growth in natural gas demand”.While gas is still put forward as a bridge fuel in the Chinese economy,managing demand growth has gained importance.Among the key measures,policy reform has targeted city gas pricing.Under the new rules,distributors can more freely adjust retail tariffs in l

108、ine with sourcing costs,although local authorities still exercise a degree of control over pricing.Overall,these adjustments are expected to improve distributor balance sheets and to better communicate pricing signals to retail gas consumers,as had previously been done for industrial and commercial

109、consumers.In September 2023 Chinas National Energy Administration released a draft version of the Natural Gas Utilisation Policy,setting out the guiding principles for gas market development in the coming years.The previous version of the policy(published in 2012)accompanied a step change in Chinese

110、 gas demand particularly over the second half of that decade as coal-to-gas substitution measures took effect and overall energy demand grew.The draft policy redefines priority sectors for gas use,scaling back the deployment of gas in sectors that have been a source of supply tensions in the past.As

111、 such,more explicit rules are placed on coal-to-gas switching in residential and commercial heating,notably in areas requiring greater grid buildout or where gas affordability is an issue,avoiding a repeat of winter 2017/18 supply shortfalls.Natural gas for transport would now be focused on heavy go

112、ods and inter-city passenger transport.The draft policy also proposes less indiscriminate gas-fired power build-out,focusing resources on peak-shaving capacity and projects integrated with renewable developments,and sidelining projects in coal-dominated basins.In industry,segments meeting interrupti

113、bility requirements remain priority categories,and gas-based chemicals production(methanol)has been moved from“prohibited”status to“restricted”status,opening the door for deeper coal-to-gas substitution over time.Importantly,the draft policy also calls for the development of demand-side management a

114、nd the acceleration of import,storage and transport infrastructure deployment.This aligns with Chinas target to more than double the countrys gas and LNG storage capacity to 55-60 bcm by 2025.In December 2023 Chinas National Development and Reform Commission announced the simplification of gas trans

115、port tariffs.From January 2024 the reform sets up four regional transport rates to replace the 20 previously in place and is expected to foster improved transparency and flexibility in domestic gas trade.Gas Market Report,Q1-2024 PAGE|21 Key gas policies and market trends in 2023 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Natur

116、al gas storage development remains key to Chinas gas market growth strategy IEA.CC BY 4.0.Note:2025 target based on China National Energy Administration National 2021 Gas Storage Capacity Construction Implementation Plan.Sources:CEDIGAZ(2023),UGS Dataset;ICIS(2023),LNG Edge.Estimated natural gas sto

117、rage capacity in China,2015-2022,and target for 2025 Gas Market Report,Q1-2024 PAGE|22 Gas market update IEA.CC BY 4.0.Gas market update Gas Market Report,Q1-2024 PAGE|23 Gas market update IEA.CC BY 4.0.Global gas demand grew marginally in 2023 to remain below 2021 levels amid tight supplyGlobal gas

118、 demand grew by an estimated 0.5%(or 20 bcm)in 2023,not sufficient to recover the losses seen in 2022,when overall demand dropped by 1.5%(or 60 bcm).Gas supplies remained tight in 2023,as the increase in global LNG production(up 13 bcm)was not enough to offset the continued decline in Russian piped

119、gas deliveries to Europe(down 38 bcm).Global gas demand returned to growth in the second half of 2023,primarily supported by North America,the fast-growing markets of Asia,the Middle East and Africa.Industry emerged as the most important driver behind demand growth,followed by the power sector.Deman

120、d in the residential and commercial sectors declined amid milder winter weather conditions and energy-saving efforts.Natural gas consumption in North America grew by over 1%(or more than 10 bcm)in 2023,primarily driven by higher gas burn in the regions power sector.In the United States domestic natu

121、ral gas output rose by 4%(or 40 bcm)to reach an all-time high of 1 065 bcm.This strong growth in supply,together with mild winter weather,provided downward pressure on gas prices,which plummeted by 60%compared to 2023.Lower gas prices supported further coal-to-gas switching in the power sector and d

122、rove up the share of natural gas in the US power mix to an all-time high of 42%in 2023.Ample domestic gas supply enabled the United States to further increase its LNG exports(up by 10%)and to become the worlds largest LNG supplier in 2023.Natural gas demand in Central and South America declined marg

123、inally compared to 2022.Healthy hydro availability in Brazil depressed gas burn in the power sector,while a milder southern hemisphere winter weighed on space heating requirements in Argentina.Preliminary data indicate that gas demand returned to growth in H2 2023,supported by the industrial and pow

124、er sectors.Following a 1.5%decline in 2022,gas demand in the Asia Pacific region returned to growth in 2023,increasing by an estimated 2.5%.This was largely driven by China and India,while gas demand in the regions mature markets(Japan and Korea)continued to decline amid lower electricity consumptio

125、n and improving nuclear availability.Gas demand in China increased by an estimated 7%(or 26 bcm)on the back of higher gas use in the power and industrial sectors.China regained its position as the worlds largest LNG importer,with the countrys LNG inflows rising by 14%(or 12 bcm)in 2023 albeit remain

126、ing below the record levels reached in 2021.Gas consumption in emerging Asian markets displayed varied patterns in 2023,as lower domestic gas production and a still relatively high LNG price environment limited demand growth in the regions price-sensitive markets.Natural gas demand in OECD Europe fe

127、ll by 7%(or 35 bcm)in 2023 to its lowest level since 1995.The power sector alone accounted for 75%of the demand reduction as lower electricity consumption together with the continued expansion of renewables Gas Market Report,Q1-2024 PAGE|24 Gas market update IEA.CC BY 4.0.and improving nuclear avail

128、ability weighed on gas-fired power generation.Distribution network-related demand continued to decline amid lower gas use for space heating in the residential and commercial sectors.Non-weather-related factors contributed to the bulk of the demand reduction in these sectors.Natural gas use in indust

129、ry started to recover in H2 2023,albeit remaining well below its 2021 level.Following a surge of 60%in 2022,Europes LNG imports declined marginally in 2023,as lower gas demand and high storage levels eased the pull on LNG imports in H2 2023.In Eurasia natural gas demand rose by an estimated 1%compar

130、ed to 2022.The regions gas production dropped by around 3%(or close to 30 bcm),primarily due to lower gas output in Russia and Uzbekistan.Russias natural gas production declined by an estimated 5%(or over 30 bcm)amid lower piped gas exports to the European Union.In Uzbekistan,natural gas production

131、declined by close to 10%(or 5 bcm)in 2023 due to the continued deterioration of the upstream sector.In contrast,natural gas production grew by an estimated 7%(or 6 bcm)in Turkmenistan and rose by 6%(or 1.5 bcm)in Kazakhstan.Azeri gas output grew by 4%(or 1.5 bcm)in 2023,partly supported by higher pi

132、ped gas deliveries to the European Union.Natural gas demand in the Middle East expanded by an estimated 2%,supported by higher domestic production and driven by stronger gas use in the industrial and power sectors.In Iran natural gas consumption increased by around 3%,driven by the residential and c

133、ommercial sectors as well as stronger gas-to-power demand.In Saudi Arabia stronger gas burn in the power sector reduced oil-based power generation,which declined by an estimated 5%y-o-y in Q1-Q3 2023,leaving more space for natural gas.Omani gas consumption rose by 5%y-o-y in the first seven months o

134、f 2023 on the back of higher gas use in industry.Natural gas demand in Africa rose by an estimated 3%y-o-y in the first eleven months of 2023.This was primarily supported by stronger demand from the power sector.Global gas demand is forecast to grow by 2.5%(or 100 bcm)in 2024.We anticipate growth to

135、 be capped in import markets by the limited increase in global LNG supply,which is expected to expand by a mere 3.5%(or 18 bcm).The increase in gas demand is set to be supported by industry,as well as the residential and commercial sectors,assuming a return to average weather conditions after a mild

136、 winter in 2023.Gas demand in the Asia Pacific region is expected to expand by close to 4%compared to 2023,supported by industrial activity and higher gas use in the power sector.Gas consumption in North America is projected to grow by 1.5%and increase by a marginal 1%in Central and South America.In

137、 Europe natural gas demand is forecast to grow by 3%and remain almost 20%below its 2021 levels.While gas use in industry and for space heating is expected to recover,gas-fired generation is set to decline further.Gas demand in the gas-rich markets of Africa and the Middle East is forecast to increas

138、e by 3%.Eurasian gas demand is projected to grow by 2%amid higher demand in industry and the residential and commercial sectors.Gas Market Report,Q1-2024 PAGE|25 Gas market update IEA.CC BY 4.0.Gas demand returned to growth across all key markets in H2 2023,except Europe IEA.CC BY 4.0.*Bangladesh,Ch

139、ina,India,Indonesia,Japan,Korea,Malaysia,Pakistan,Philippines,Singapore and Thailand.-40-200 20 402023Q12023Q22023Q32023Q4Y-o-y change in bcmCentral and South AmericaEurasiaNorth AmericaAsia selected markets*OECD EuropeY-o-y change in bcmEstimated quarterly change in natural gas demand in key region

140、s,2022-2023 Gas Market Report,Q1-2024 PAGE|26 Gas market update IEA.CC BY 4.0.Industry and the power sector were the key drivers behind gas demand growth in 2023 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Estimated change in natural gas consumption by region and sector,2023 vs 2022 -50-40-30-20-100 10 20 30 40 50Central and Sou

141、th AmericaEuropeEurasiaAfricaMiddle EastAsia PacificNorth AmericaWorldbcmResidential and commercialPowerIndustryOther sectorsNet change Gas Market Report,Q1-2024 PAGE|27 Gas market update IEA.CC BY 4.0.North American gas demand continued to grow in 2023,driven by record gas burn for powerNatural gas

142、 consumption in North America grew by an estimated 1%(or more than 10 bcm)in 2023,primarily supported by record high gas burn in the US power sector.Milder weather conditions in Q1 and Q4 weighed on space heating requirements both in Canada and the United States,limiting the expansion of gas demand.

143、Gas demand in industry remained broadly flat amid a weak macro-economic environment.In the United States natural gas consumption increased by an estimated 0.8%(or around 7 bcm)in 2023.Demand in the residential and commercial sectors declined by more than 7%(or over 15 bcm)as lower heating degree day

144、s depressed space heating requirements across Q1 and Q4 2023.In contrast,gas burn in the power sector continued to expand and rose by 6.5%(or more than 20 bcm)compared to 2022.Consequently,the share of natural gas in power generation increased from 39%in 2022 to an all-time high of 42%in 2023.This s

145、trong growth was primarily supported by coal-to-gas switching dynamics.The steep decline in gas prices(down 60%y-o-y)increased the cost-competitiveness of gas-fired generation vis-vis coal-fired power plants,which saw their production plummet by 20%compared to 2022.Lower hydro availability provided

146、additional market space for gas-fired power plants,especially in the Northwest region.Natural gas demand in industry declined marginally compared with 2022 amid subdued economic activity.The US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)fell to 47 in 2023,its lowest annual average since 2009,indica

147、ting a contraction in manufacturing activity.In Canada natural gas demand increased by an estimated 1%(or 1 bcm),primarily supported by higher gas burn in the power sector.Similarly to the United States,milder weather conditions weighed on gas use in the residential and commercial sectors,which decl

148、ined by an estimated 9%in 2023 in the first ten months of 2023.Combined gas demand in the industrial and power sectors rose by close to 6%y-o-y during the same period of 2023,largely supported by stronger gas-fired generation at the expense of coal-fired power plants.In Mexico natural gas consumptio

149、n grew by an estimated 5%(or 4 bcm)in 2023 amid the continued expansion of gas-fired power generation.Higher gas demand was primarily met by stronger gas pipeline imports from the United States,which increased by an estimated 8%compared with 2022.Natural gas demand in North America is expected to in

150、crease by just over 1%in 2024.Our forecast assumes a return to average weather conditions,which would increase gas use in the residential and commercial sectors.In contrast,gas-to-power demand growth is forecast to moderate following the strong gains experienced during 2022-2023.The continued expans

151、ion of renewables is set to weigh on gas-fired generation.Gas demand in industry is expected to decline marginally in a weak macro-economic environment.Gas Market Report,Q1-2024 PAGE|28 Gas market update IEA.CC BY 4.0.US gas consumption increased in 2023 despite a decline in residential and commerci

152、al demand IEA.CC BY 4.0.Sources:IEA analysis based on EIA(2024),Natural Gas Consumption;Natural Gas Weekly Update.-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%-20-15-10-50 5 10 15 202021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q42023Q12023Q22023Q32023Q4Y-o-y change in%Y-o-y change in bcmResidential and commercialPowerInd

153、ustryOthersY-o-y changeEstimated quarterly change in gas demand,United States,2021-2023 Gas Market Report,Q1-2024 PAGE|29 Gas market update IEA.CC BY 4.0.Lower gas-fired generation in Brazil depressed gas demand in Central and South AmericaNatural gas consumption in Central and South America decline

154、d by an estimated 1.5%(or just over 1.5 bcm)y-o-y in Q1-Q3 2023,primarily due to lower gas-fired generation in Brazil amid healthy hydro availability.The demand reduction was entirely concentrated in H1 2023,while the regions gas consumption returned to growth in Q3,when it increased by 1%compared t

155、o the same period in the previous year.In Argentina the regions largest gas market natural gas consumption fell by 0.8%(or 0.25 bcm)in the first ten months of 2023.Gas demand in the residential and commercial sectors declined by 6%(or 0.7 bcm)y-o-y.Around 80%of this decline was during the southern h

156、emisphere winter season(April-September),when milder weather conditions weighed on space heating requirements.In contrast,gas demand in industry rose by 4.5%(or 0.45 bcm)y-o-y in Q1-Q3 2023.Gas burn in the power sector increased by 0.8%y-o-y during the same period,despite higher hydropower output.Na

157、tural gas consumption in Brazil fell by an estimated 9%(or more than 2 bcm)y-o-y in the first eleven months of 2023.Healthy hydro availability(up by 1%)and the continued expansion of wind and solar(together up by 45%)significantly reduced the call on gas-fired power plants.The decline in gas-fired g

158、eneration was largely concentrated during the periods of higher hydro availability(Q1 and August-October).In contrast,lower hydropower output during April and July led to a temporary increase in gas-fired generation,highlighting the back-up role played by gas-fired power plants in Brazils electricit

159、y system.As a consequence of lower gas demand,Brazil reduced its piped gas imports from Bolivia by 13%(or 0.7 bcm)y-o-y,while its LNG inflows dropped by 55%(or 1.5 bcm)y-o-y in the first eleven months of 2023.In Trinidad and Tobago natural gas consumption declined by 3%(or 0.3 bcm)y-o-y in Q1-Q3 202

160、3,amid lower gas burn in the power sector(down 2%)and reduced gas use in industry(down 3%).In Venezuela observed gas consumption remained close to 2022 levels in the first ten months of 2023.In Colombia gas demand rose by 4%(or 0.2 bcm)y-o-y in 2023,primarily supported by stronger gas-fired generati

161、on(up 20%)and higher gas use in the commercial sector(up 10%).Gas demand in industry declined by 3%y-o-y,largely offset by higher gas use in refining(up 7.5%).Gas demand grew strongly in Central America and the Caribbean markets,with their combined LNG imports surging by 35%in 2023.Our forecast expe

162、cts natural gas demand in Central and South America to increase by just 1%in 2024,after the declines recorded in the previous two years.While gas burn in the power sector is set to remain depressed amid the continuing expansion of renewables,the industrial sector is expected to provide room for natu

163、ral gas demand growth.Gas Market Report,Q1-2024 PAGE|30 Gas market update IEA.CC BY 4.0.Gas demand in Central and South America returned to growth in Q3 2023 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Sources:IEA analysis based on ANP(2024),Boletim Mensal da Produo de Petrleo e Gs Natural;BMC(2024),Informes Mensuales;Central Ba

164、nk of Trinidad and Tobago(2024),Statistics;CNE(2024),Generacin bruta SEN;ENARGAS(2024),Datos Abiertos;ICIS(2024),ICIS LNG Edge;IEA(2024),Monthly Gas Data Service;JODI(2024),Gas Database;MME(2024),Boletim Mensal de Acompanhamento da Industria de Gs Natural;OSINERG(2024),Reporte diario de la operacin

165、de los sistemas de transporte de gas natural.Monthly natural gas consumption,Central and South America,2022 and Q1-Q3 2023 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14JFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJAS20222023bcmArgentinaBrazilVenezuelaTrinidad and TobagoColombiaPeruChileOther Gas Market Report,Q1-2024 PAGE|31 Gas market update IEA.CC BY

166、 4.0.Natural gas demand in Asia returned to growth in 2023Following a drop of 1.5%in 2022,natural gas demand in the Asia Pacific region returned to growth in 2023 and increased by an estimated 2.5%,offsetting the losses of the previous year.This growth was largely concentrated in H2 2023 and primari

167、ly driven by China,India and certain emerging Asian markets.In contrast,natural gas demand remained depressed in the mature markets of the region(Japan and Korea),as improving nuclear availability reduced the call on gas-fired power plants.Asia is set to remain the main driver behind global gas dema

168、nd growth in 2024.The regions natural gas consumption is forecast to increase by 4%in 2024,accounting for almost 40%of incremental gas demand globally.In 2023 Chinas natural gas demand rose from the ashes of 2022,reinvigorated after the punishing effects of high global gas prices on the competitiven

169、ess of the fuel in the energy mix.Gas demand in China is estimated to have grown by 7%or approximately 26 bcm in 2023,principally driven by a recovery in industrial activity as Covid-related restrictions eased and global gas prices declined steadily throughout the year.The industrial sector accounte

170、d for approximately 40%of the countrys total natural gas demand growth,buoyed by lower gas prices.Heavy and energy-intensive industry,sensitive to fuel prices,partially reversed the fuel switching away from gas that took place in 2022,while improving economic prospects also drove up overall energy d

171、emand in the sector.Lower gas prices,together with subdued hydro availability in H1 2023,supported stronger gas burn in the power sector,which recorded an increase of more than 6%y-o-y.Despite this growth,gas-to-power demand in 2023 remained slightly below pre-crisis levels given sustained competiti

172、on from coal and the continuing expansion of wind and solar power generation.Residential and commercial gas consumption grew by approximately 8%in 2023,up from 2022 growth levels.Total Chinese gas demand growth is expected to ease slightly to 6%in 2024 as the recovery effect tapers and incremental g

173、as demand increasingly relies on fundamentals and policy positioning.Gas demand in industry will continue to drive incremental volumes,but lower economic growth prospects compared to pre-crisis levels mean that the increase in the sectors gas demand is expected to moderate to 6%.Electricity demand g

174、rowth lifts power sector gas burn by more than 6%and the effects of an expanding gas distribution grid helps keep residential and commercial demand growing at close to 6%in 2024.In Japan natural gas consumption fell by approximately 8%in the first ten months of 2023,primarily due to lower gas burn i

175、n the power sector.Gas-fired power generation declined by about 10%y-o-y in the first nine months of 2023 due to a combination of factors.Milder weather conditions together with energy saving gains reduced electricity consumption,which declined by around 3%y-o-y in the first ten months of 2023.In ad

176、dition,nuclear power output increased by an impressive 50%y-o-y in 2023,which together with Gas Market Report,Q1-2024 PAGE|32 Gas market update IEA.CC BY 4.0.higher renewable power generation reduced the call on gas-fired power plants.According to METI data,city gas sales to the industrial sector dr

177、opped by close to 10%y-o-y in the first ten months of 2023.Gas demand in the commercial and residential sectors fell by 6%y-o-y during the same period,amid milder weather conditions.After the steep demand drop recorded in 2023,this forecast expects natural gas demand to decline only marginally in 20

178、24.While electricity consumption may recover,the restart of nuclear power plants and increased renewable power generation will continue to weigh on gas-to-power demand.Koreas gas consumption fell by an estimated 3%in the first ten months of 2023.Similarly to Japan,higher nuclear availability and str

179、onger renewable power generation depressed gas burn in the power sector,which dropped by 2%y-o-y in the first ten months of 2023.Gas demand in the city gas sector declined by close to 10%y-o-y amid milder weather conditions.Koreas gas demand is forecast to decrease by 2%in 2024,as gas-fired power ge

180、neration continues to decline amid stronger renewable power output and improving nuclear availability.While gas demand in the industrial,commercial and residential sectors is expected to recover,it is more than offset by the declines in the power sector.Following the 7%y-o-y decline observed in 2022

181、,Indias primary gas supply rose by 5%y-o-y in 2023,according to the Petroleum Planning&Analysis Cell.Gas demand growth is primarily driven by the petrochemical,power generation,refinery and industrial sectors.Natural gas demand in India is expected to increase by 6%in 2024,mainly supported by higher

182、 gas use in industry(including in the fertiliser sector)and stronger gas burn in the power sector amid the development of its national pipeline grid and city gas infrastructure.Emerging Asias gas consumption increased by an estimated 2.5%y-o-y in the first eleven months of 2023,as lower LNG prices s

183、upported demand growth in the regions price-sensitive end-use sectors.Natural gas demand in Thailand grew by 6%(or 2.5 bcm)y-o-y.This was entirely driven by higher gas burn in the power sector,increasing by more than 12%y-o-y in the first eleven months of 2023.In contrast,gas use in industry continu

184、ed to decline and fell by 3%y-o-y.Gas demand in Bangladesh declined by an estimated 1%y-o-y in the first ten months of 2023,as the increase in LNG imports(up by close to 20%)was not sufficient to offset the declines recorded in domestic natural gas production.The country continued to face rotating p

185、ower cuts amid inadequate gas supplies.Gas demand in Pakistan fell by an estimated 1.5%y-o-y in Q1-Q3 2023.Similarly to Bangladesh,lower domestic gas production(down by 4%)was not offset by higher LNG imports(up by 7%),perpetuating a tight gas supplydemand balance and rotating power cuts.Indonesias

186、gas demand grew by a strong 10%(or 3.5 bcm)y-o-y in the first eleven months of 2023,primarily supported by the power and industrial sectors.In Malaysia natural gas demand declined by an estimated 1%as lower gas production tightened gas supplies into the domestic market.Natural gas demand in emerging

187、 Asia is forecast to increase by close to 4%in 2024,primarily supported by the power and industrial sectors.Gas Market Report,Q1-2024 PAGE|33 Gas market update IEA.CC BY 4.0.China drove Asias natural gas demand recovery in 2023 IEA.CC BY 4.0.*Others comprises Indonesia,Malaysia,the Philippines,Singa

188、pore and Thailand.Sources:IEA analysis based on ICIS(2024),ICIS LNG Edge;CQPGX(2024),Nanbin Observation;JODI(2024),Gas World Database;PPAC(2024),Gas Consumption;EPPO(2023),Energy Statistics;Korea Energy Economics Institute(2023),Monthly Energy Statistics;Ministry of Economy,Trade and Industry of Jap

189、an(2023),METI Statistics.-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%-25-20-15-10-50 5 10 15 20 252021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q42023Q12023Q22023Q32023Q4Y-o-y change in%Y-o-y change in bcmChinaJapanKoreaIndiaOthers*TotalY-o-y changeEstimated quarterly change in gas demand,selected Asian markets,2021-2023

190、Gas Market Report,Q1-2024 PAGE|34 Gas market update IEA.CC BY 4.0.European natural gas consumption dropped in 2023 to its lowest level since 1995Natural gas demand in OECD Europe fell by 7%(or 35 bcm)in 2023 to its lowest level since 1995.The decline was almost entirely concentrated in Q1-Q3 2023,wh

191、ile gas consumption remained just below its 2022 levels in Q4.The power sector alone accounted for 75%of the demand reduction,as lower electricity demand together with the continued expansion of renewables and improving nuclear availability weighed on gas-fired power generation.Distribution network-

192、related demand fell by an estimated 7%(or over 10 bcm)in 2023,with the decline almost entirely concentrated in Q1.Preliminary data suggest that distribution network-related demand remained close to its 2022 levels in Q4.Our analysis indicates that non-weather-related factors contributed to the major

193、ity the demand reduction in the residential and commercial sectors in 2023 They include efficiency gains,administrated gas-saving measures,fuel switching,deployment of heat pumps,behavioural changes and rising affordability issues.Consequently,the heating intensity(gas use per heating degree day)fur

194、ther declined in 2023,potentially indicating that the non-weather-related factors weighing on residential and commercial gas demand may persist beyond 2022.Gas-to-power demand declined by over 15%(or more than 25 bcm)in 2023.This steep reduction was driven by a combination of factors.Electricity con

195、sumption declined by an estimated 3%(or 90 TWh)in 2023,amid subdued activity in energy-intensive industries,energy efficiency gains and behavioural changes.Stronger renewable power output(up by 8%)and improving nuclear availability in France(up by 15%)further reduced the call on gas-fired power plan

196、ts.Natural gas consumption in industry increased marginally in 2023,as the declines recorded in the first half of the year(down 6%y-o-y)were more than offset by the increase in H2 2023.The continued decline in natural gas prices supported a moderate recovery in industrial sector gas demand,which ros

197、e by over 10%y-o-y in H2 2023,albeit remaining almost 15%below its H2 2021 levels.Preliminary data indicate that industrial sector gas consumption in H2 2023 rose by 15%y-o-y in Belgium,4%in Italy,10%in the Netherlands and by over 15%in Spain.Our forecast expects natural gas demand in OECD Europe to

198、 increase by a moderate 3%in 2024,as the decline in gas-to-power demand is offset by higher gas use in the residential,commercial and industrial sectors.Gas burn in the power sector is forecast to drop by close to 10%amid the rapid expansion of renewables and improving nuclear availability in France

199、.An assumed return to average weather conditions is expected to increase gas demand in the residential and commercial sectors.Gas use in industry is forecast to continue its recovery,although fragile and largely dependent on the evolution of prices.Gas Market Report,Q1-2024 PAGE|35 Gas market update

200、 IEA.CC BY 4.0.as lower gas burn in the power sector continued to weigh on demand IEA.CC BY 4.0.Sources:IEA analysis based on Enagas(2023),Natural Gas Demand;ENTSOG(2023),Transparency Platform;EPIAS(2023),Transparency Platform;Trading Hub Europe(2023),Aggregated consumption.-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10

201、%15%20%25%-35-28-21-14-70 7 14 21 28 352021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q42023Q12023Q22023Q32023Q4Y-o-y change in%Y-o-y change in bcmResidential and commercialPowerIndustryY-o-y changeEstimated quarterly change in gas demand,OECD Europe,2021-2023 Gas Market Report,Q1-2024 PAGE|36 Gas ma

202、rket update IEA.CC BY 4.0.US natural gas production rose to a record high in 2023US dry natural gas production continued on its established growth path in 2023.From already record levels in 2022,production increased by a further 4 Bcf/day(4%)to reach an annual average of around 103 Bcf/d.However,pro

203、duction growth showed signs of easing throughout the year as monthly year-on-year growth slowed from February onwards.Keeping in line with multi-year trends,the Permian and Haynesville Basins were again the main growth drivers in 2023,accounting for around three-quarters of the incremental productio

204、n volumes brought to market in the year.A year-on-year increase of more than 40%in the average Haynesville rig count in 2022 encouraged in part by a spike in domestic natural gas spot prices in that year helped drive an estimate 12%production growth in 2023.In the Permian Basin where gas output is m

205、ostly associated production supply grew by approximately 8%over the same period,aided by high oil prices and a sustained oil rig count throughout 2022.Combined,these two basins added more than 10 Tcf of incremental production in 2023.The Appalachian Basins gas production plateau extended into 2023,e

206、ven registering a slight decline for the second year in a row.While it remains the largest single source of US natural gas output,growth has tailed off since early 2019 onward as production volumes have met takeaway capacity constraints.Building interstate pipelines necessary to transport additional

207、 Appalachian production to demand areas has proven increasingly difficult in recent years,as growing legal challenges against projects have raised costs and delayed project timelines.Furthermore,lower seasonal demand in the autumn months kept regional prices low,scaling back production incentives.As

208、 a result,Appalachian natural gas production is estimated to have fallen by about 1%in 2023.US gas production is set to continue growing in 2024,albeit at a slower rate than in 2023 as clement weather,above-average storage levels and liquefaction project delays temper the positive effects of takeawa

209、y pipeline developments in key production basins.Commercial start of the Mountain Valley Pipeline(MVP),delayed from late 2023 to the first quarter of 2024,should add 20 bcm of takeaway capacity from the Appalachian Basin to demand centres further south.However,transmission constraints further downst

210、ream could slow the ramp-up in MVP utilisation,weakening the debottlenecking effect on Appalachian production.We expect Permian and Haynesville production to continue to lead growth,aided notably by the completion of two Permian pipeline expansion projects in September and December 2023(Whistler Pip

211、eline and Permian Highway Pipeline expansions,respectively).However,the delay in bringing online the first train of the Golden Pass liquefaction project from 2024 to 2025 is set to soften production growth in southern basins close to the coast.Overall,US dry gas production growth is set to slow to b

212、elow 2%in 2024.Gas Market Report,Q4-2023 PAGE|37 Gas market update IEA.CC BY 4.0.The Permian and Haynesville continue to drive US gas production growth IEA.CC BY 4.0.Note:November and December 2023 include estimated data.Sources:IEA analysis based on EIA(2023),Natural Gas Data;Natural Gas Weekly Upd

213、ate.Y-o-y change in monthly US dry gas production,2022-2023 Gas Market Report,Q1-2024 PAGE|38 Gas market update IEA.CC BY 4.0.Europes pull on LNG softened in H2 2023 amid lower gas demand and high inventoriesOECD Europes primary natural gas supply declined by 12%(or 60 bcm)in 2023,amid the regions c

214、ontinued decline in gas demand and lower storage injection needs.The share of LNG in the total primary gas supply rose to a record high of 37%in 2023,while the share of Russian piped gas continued to shrink,dropping to around 10%.Following a surge of 60%in 2022,Europes LNG imports declined marginall

215、y in 2023,as lower gas demand and high storage levels eased the pull on LNG imports.Europes LNG imports grew by a strong 8%(or 6.5 bcm)y-o-y in H1 2023,before recordin g a drop of 10%(or 9 bcm)y-o-y in H2.Subdued demand together with high inventory levels pushed European hub prices below Asian spot

216、LNG prices during H2 2023:Platts JKM had an average premium of USD 2/MBtu over TTF,which encouraged flexible LNG cargoes to favour Asian markets instead of Europe.Despite lower LNG inflows,the share of LNG in Europes primary gas supply rose from 33%in 2022 to a new high of 37%in 2023 a share compara

217、ble to Russias piped gas before its invasion of Ukraine.LNG inflows from the United States rose by 7.5%(or 5.5 bcm).This further reinforced the position of the United States as Europes largest LNG supplier,with its share of total LNG imports rising from 43%in 2022 to 47%in 2023.Hence,US LNG accounte

218、d for more than 15%of Europes natural gas demand in 2023.Norways piped gas deliveries to the rest of Europe declined by 7%(or 8.5 bcm)2023 amid a higher level of planned maintenance and unplanned outages.Norwegian pipeline supplies to the European Union fell by 4%,while exports to the United Kingdom

219、 dropped by 17%.Non-Norwegian domestic production fell by an estimated 12%(or 9.5 bcm)y-o-y in the first eleven months of 2023.The Netherlands alone accounted for around 60%of the overall decline.The countrys natural gas output dropped by 35%in 2023,amid the closure of the Groningen field and the co

220、ntinued production declines from small fields.Russias piped gas supplies to Europe almost halved in 2023,totalling at an estimated 45 bcm their lowest level since the early 1970s.Deliveries to the European Union fell by more than 60%(or 38 bcm).Exports to Trkiye stayed close to their 2022 levels in

221、the first eleven months of 2023.Pipeline gas deliveries from North Africa dropped by 2%(or 0.5 bcm),amid lower supplies to Iberia.Gas flows from Azerbaijan via the Trans Adriatic pipeline stayed near their 2022 levels in 2023.Our forecast assumes that Russian piped gas supplies to OECD Europe remain

222、 close to their 2023 levels in 2024,albeit their profile remains a major uncertainty.LNG imports are expected to increase marginally in 2024 amid higher natural gas demand and a continued reduction in non-Norwegian domestic production.Gas Market Report,Q1-2024 PAGE|39 Gas market update IEA.CC BY 4.0

223、.LNG accounted for a record 37%of Europes primary gas supply in 2023 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Sources:IEA analysis based on ENTSOG(2023),Transparency Platform;Eurostat(2023),Energy Statistics;Gas Transmission System Operator of Ukraine(2023),Transparency Platform;ICIS LNG Edge;JODI(2023),Gas World Database.0 5

224、0 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450Total primary supplyOther piped gasNorth African piped gasRussian piped gasNon-Norwegiandomestic productionNorwegian piped gasLNGbcm37%24%16%10%7%6%OECD Europes primary natural gas supply by source,2023 Gas Market Report,Q4-2023 PAGE|40 Gas market update IEA.CC BY 4.

225、0.LNG supply growth remained well below its historic average in 2023,with uncertainty clouding the 2024 outlook Global LNG trade expanded by 2%y-o-y(or 12 bcm)in 2023.This is the lowest growth rate since 2014,barring the exceptional contraction in 2020.Growth was driven primarily by the United State

226、s on the supply side,which accounted for 87%of incremental global LNG volumes.The Asia Pacific region led LNG demand growth,accounting for virtually all incremental imports.From a supply perspective,the top three LNG exporters,well-established since 2019,remained the same.In 2023 the United States m

227、oved to take first place for the very first time,exporting 116 bcm,surpassing both Australia and Qatar,tied at 106 bcm.Together,these three exporters accounted for more than 60%of global LNG supply.Supply growth in 2023 was primarily driven by the United States and Africa.The United States recorded

228、a remarkable 10%(10 bcm)y-o-y increase in LNG exports,despite no major new liquefaction plant starting operations in 2023.Growth was driven by the restart of Freeport LNG and the continued commissioning of Calcasieu Pass.In Africa,Algerian LNG exports saw a y-o-y increase of 26%,or nearly 4 bcm,targ

229、eting the European Union and Trkiye,and Mozambique added 3.6 bcm of supply as Coral South FLNG ramped up exports after starting its commercial operations in late 2022.In Europe,Norway increased its LNG production by 2 bcm y-o-y thanks to steady LNG production since the restart of the Hammerfest LNG

230、plant in June 2022.However,these increases were partially offset by declines in other countries.Egypts exports more than halved,falling by 5 bcm y-o-y due to a decline in domestic gas production,a sudden drop in piped gas imports from Israel in the fourth quarter and rising domestic demand.Nigerias

231、exports were down by 8%,or nearly 2 bcm y-o-y,due to ongoing security and feedgas supply issues.For the first time ever(except in 2020),Russian LNG exports decreased,falling by 5%or 2 bcm y-o-y,mainly due to extended summer maintenance at the Sakhalin-2 plant and,to a lesser extent,at Yamal LNG.Qata

232、ri exports fell by 1%,or 1 bcm y-o-y.From a demand perspective,China regained its position as the worlds largest LNG importer in 2023,ahead of Japan and Korea.The Asia Pacific region returned to growth in 2023,with overall LNG imports increasing by 4%(or 14 bcm)y-o-y.This was primarily driven by Chi

233、na(up by 14%or 11.5 bcm),Thailand(up by 40%or 4 bcm)and India(up by 11%or 3 bcm).The expansion of economic activity,together with stronger gas burn in the power sector,supported higher LNG imports in these countries.In contrast,LNG imports declined sharply in the mature markets of Asia,principally J

234、apan(down by 8%or 7.5 bcm)and Korea(down by 3%or 2 bcm)y-o-y,as improving nuclear availability and lower electricity demand Gas Market Report,Q4-2023 PAGE|41 Gas market update IEA.CC BY 4.0.weighed on gas-fired power generation.Thanks to the significant drop in Platts JKM prices from the beginning o

235、f 2023,South Asian buyers returned to the spot markets via tenders,notably in a context of high electricity demand as a result of heatwaves affecting the region in spring and summer 2023.Bangladesh and Pakistan saw their LNG imports increase by 20%and 5%respectively,translating into a combined incre

236、ase in LNG imports of 1.6 bcm compared to 2022.European LNG import growth was muted in 2023,falling by 1.5%or 2.5 bcm amid persistently low demand and reduced storage injection needs compared to 2022.Trends differed markedly by month and by country.LNG inflows grew by 8%y-o-y in the first half of th

237、e year,which was more than offset by a 10%y-o-y decline in the second half.Likewise,while the Netherlands,Germany,Italy and Finland increased their LNG imports by more than 15 bcm compared to 2022,this was mostly offset by decreases recorded in France,the United Kingdom and Spain.LNG imports into Ce

238、ntral and South America increased by 10%(or 1.5 bcm)y-o-y in 2023 despite Brazils LNG imports dropping by 61%(or 1.8 bcm)y-o-y,as healthy hydro availability weighed on gas burn in the power sector.For 2024 we forecast global LNG trade to increase by around 3.5%(or 18 bcm).Africa is expected to accou

239、nt for almost a third of additional LNG supply.This is supported by the planned start-up of Greater Tortue Ahmeyim FLNG(off the coast of Mauritania and Senegal)in Q1 2024 and higher production from legacy liquefaction plants.Around a quarter of incremental LNG supply is expected to come from the Uni

240、ted States and Mexico,less than in our previous forecasts following the announced postponement of Golden Pass Train 1 to 2025.Demand growth is set to be largely driven by Asia.Chinas LNG imports are expected to increase by more than 10%from 2023 levels,growing by a similar amount to last year.We exp

241、ect India to increase its LNG imports in 2024 by 7%,fuelled by demand from the power and fertiliser sectors,as the country plans to stop importing urea by 2025.Bangladesh and Pakistan are expected to import more LNG in 2024 due to the combination of rapidly declining domestic gas production and the

242、commissioning of new gas-fired power plants.Europes LNG imports are expected to grow year-on-year,slightly surpassing the 2022 high.It is important to highlight the high level of uncertainty that clouds estimates for both LNG production and consumption levels,and also the potential impacts of the Pa

243、nama and Suez Canal transit issues.Potential start-up delays at new liquefaction plants,a tense geopolitical context and worsening feedgas issues at certain legacy projects all represent downward risks to the present outlook.Simultaneously,adverse weather conditions(including a colder-than-average w

244、inter and lower hydro availability)could contribute to tighter market conditions and price volatility.Gas Market Report,Q1-2024 PAGE|42 Gas market update IEA.CC BY 4.0.LNG demand growth was largely driven by the Asia Pacific region in 2023 LNG imports and exports by region,2015-2023 IEA.CC BY 4.0.So

245、urce:IEA analysis based on ICIS(2023),ICIS LNG Edge.-800-600-400-2000200400600800201520162017201820192020202120222023bcmAfricaAsia PacificCentral and South AmericaEurasiaEuropeMiddle EastNorth AmericaIMPORTSEXPORTS Gas Market Report,Q1-2024 PAGE|43 Gas market update IEA.CC BY 4.0.Panama Canal conges

246、tion to slow USAsia LNG trade,while LNG ships face security risks in the Middle East Due to a severe drought,the Panama Canal Authority(PCA)introduced draught restrictions several times in 2023 for vessels such as LNG carriers using the Neopanamax locks.These measures are part of water conservation

247、efforts that began in early January.The Gatun Lake reservoir,which supplies water to the canal,has been experiencing a rapid decline in its water level and reached a record low last summer.Drought is set to be exacerbated by the El Nio weather pattern until at least spring 2024.While these restricti

248、ons do not directly affect LNG trade,they may lead to increased traffic congestion and potential delays.Under normal conditions,the expected waiting time for LNG tankers transiting through the Panama Canal is two to three days.However,waiting times increased in 2023,rising to an average of 15 days a

249、s of mid-December for unreserved slots.LNG tankers can receive a slot to transit the Panama Canal through the Transit Reservation Booking System,either by booking in advance or by participating in an auction for available slots.The transit fee for an LNG carrier with a cargo capacity of 170 000 m3 w

250、as estimated at USD 0.6-0.7 million for bookings made in advance.The PCA has set up an auction system that allows shippers to apply for priority passage.This system allocates scarce capacity in a market-based way,which brings certain risks for shippers,including:Increased costs:This auction system c

251、onsiderably increases the cost of transporting LNG through the canal.In total,for all commodities combined,shippers paid more than USD 235 million in auction fees from January to mid-November 2023 to bypass the Panama Canals congestion,a 20%increase y-o-y.These fees are paid in addition to the usual

252、 tolls,with a record amount for a single ship of close to USD 4 million paid in November 2023.Unpredictability:The auction system introduces a level of unpredictability into the shipping process.The fees for expedited passage are set by market dynamics and can vary significantly.In principle,alterna

253、tive routes,while longer,provide certainty in scheduling and avoid delays due to congestion on the Panama Canal.For instance,from the US Gulf of Mexico,the journey to Japan via the Suez Canal takes a little over a month,and Africas Cape of Good Hope route is about 40 days,compared to just over 20 da

254、ys via the Panama Canal.In 2023 the number of US LNG cargoes passing through the Panama Canal declined sharply,particularly in Q2(down 16%y-o-y),in favour of alternative routes via the Suez Canal or the Cape of Good Hope.Persistent congestion and diversions could lead to Gas Market Report,Q1-2024 PA

255、GE|44 Gas market update IEA.CC BY 4.0.longer journeys,a shortage of available vessels and,consequently,higher shipping rates.In October 2023,to encourage shippers to use its route rather than the Panama Canal,the Suez Canal Authority(SCA)implemented a staggered discount system for LNG tankers sailin

256、g from the US Gulf of Mexico to ports east of Egypt,with reductions on canal tolls ranging from 30%for destinations west of Kochi in India,to 70%for Singapore and beyond.However,Suez Canal transit fees for LNG carriers will be subject to a 15%increase in 2024.The escalation of regional conflict,whic

257、h began with the war between Israel and Hamas in October 2023,could significantly affect LNG flows in the Middle East.Qatar,which alone accounted for 20%of global LNG supplies in 2023,and the United Arab Emirates primarily transport their LNG production through the Strait of Hormuz.Consequently,any

258、disruption to this route could have major implications for global LNG markets.Furthermore,due to the rising number of attacks in the Bab al-Mandab Strait between Yemen and Djibouti,an increasing number of LNG ships are altering their Middle East transit routes.These attacks have heightened maritime

259、security risks and driven up regional insurance costs.Shipping data indicate that eastbound flows via the Suez Canal accounted for 4%(or 21 bcm)of global LNG trade in 2023.US deliveries to markets in Asia and the Middle East accounted for more than half of the total eastward transit flows via the Su

260、ez Canal.Markets in Asia can be reached via the Panama Canal or via the Cape of Good Hope.The duration of US LNG shipments to western India would increase by around five days if delivered via the Cape of Good Hope versus the Suez Canal.Stopping transit through the Suez Canal would increase shipping

261、distances and add upward pressure to spot LNG charter rates.In 2023,nearly 4%of global LNG trade(or 20 bcm)flowed westward through the Suez Canal.Over 90%of this was delivered from Qatar to Europe.All LNG deliveries from Qatar to Europe transited via the Suez Canal as this is the shortest trading ro

262、ute.Following Qatar Energys decision to halt sending its LNG ships through the Red Sea in January 2024,Qatari LNG supplies have been reaching Europe via the Cape of Good Hope,doubling shipping time compared with transit through the Suez Canal.This could also put upward pressure on spot LNG charter r

263、ates and ultimately translate into higher LNG supply costs.Spot LNG charter rates in Q4 2023 were at their lowest since 2020,with Atlantic freight rates for tri-fuel diesel electric(TFDE)and two-stroke propulsion down by 50%y-o-y.The tightening of intra-basin price spreads,together with the commissi

264、oning of new LNG carriers,weighed on spot LNG charter rates in 2023.However,the LNG shipping market could tighten as winter progresses in the northern hemisphere,particularly in the event of cold spells,as LNG vessel utilisation is expected to increase,with ships taking longer routes to deliver carg

265、oes to Asia.Gas Market Report,Q1-2024 PAGE|45 Gas market update IEA.CC BY 4.0.Despite congestion in the Panama Canal and security risks in the Middle East,LNG spot freight rates for Q4 2023 remain at a three-year low IEA.CC BY 4.0.Note:This graph shows freight prices for steam vessels(older ships),T

266、FDE(more modern tri-fuel diesel electric)and two-stroke(the most modern)vessels,for prompt deliveries(up to 90 days charter with delivery within 40 days),for both the Atlantic and Pacific basins.Source:IEA analysis based on ICIS(2023),LNG Edge.050 000100 000150 000200 000250 000300 000350 000400 000

267、450 000JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecQ1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q42020202120222023USD/dayAverage of Atlantic prompt steam(APS)Average of Pacific prompt steam(PPS)Average of Atlantic p

268、rompt TFDE(APT)Average of Pacific prompt TFDE(PPT)Average of Atlantic prompt Two-Stroke(APTS)Average of Pacific prompt Two-Stroke(PPTS)Atlantic and Pacific spot LNG freight rates,2020-2023 Gas Market Report,Q1-2024 PAGE|46 Gas market update IEA.CC BY 4.0.A softer winter market:Natural gas prices rem

269、ained well below their 2021-22 highs in Q4 2023Natural gas prices rose across all key markets in Q4 2023 compared to the previous quarter as the start of the Northern Hemisphere winter tightened supplydemand fundamentals.However,high storage levels and improving supply dynamics kept natural gas pric

270、es well below the Q4 average in 2021 and 2022.In Europe,TTF spot prices rose by 20%on the quarter to an average of just below USD 13/MBtu in Q4 2023,amid higher seasonal gas demand.But continued year-on-year demand reductions together with high inventory levels and healthy LNG supply kept European h

271、ub prices 55%and 60%below the Q4 averages displayed in 2022 and 2021 respectively.While TTF prices fell significantly on the year,they remained almost 120%above their 2016-2020 Q4 averages.All-time high storage levels limited short-term price variability.Volatility on TTF month-ahead prices averaged

272、 80%in Q4 2023 around 25%below the volatility displayed during the same period of the previous year.TTFs premium over NBP narrowed to below USD 0.2/MBtu in Q4 2023 from almost USD 5/MBtu during the same period a year earlier.This in turn reduced the incentive for piped gas flows from the United King

273、dom towards continental Europe,declining from 4.5 bcm in Q4 2022 to 1.5 bcm in Q4 2023.In Asia,Platts JKM prices followed a similar trajectory and rose by over 20%on the quarter to an average of USD 15/MBtu in Q4 2023,albeit 50%lower than during the same period of the previous year.Lower competition

274、 with Europe for spot LNG cargoes,together with high storage levels across northeast Asian markets and higher nuclear availability in Japan,kept Platts JKM well below its average levels in Q4 2022.Asian spot LNG prices recovered their premium over European hub prices at the end of May 2023.Platts JK

275、M averaged USD 2/MBtu above TTF month-ahead prices in H2 2023.The re-emergence of the JKM premium above TTF drove LNG cargoes away from Europe.While Asias LNG imports grew by 7%y-o-y in H2,Europes declined by 10%.In the United States,Henry Hub prices increased by 5%on the quarter to average USD 2.7/

276、MBtu in Q4 2023,their lowest Q4 levels since 2020.Continued growth in domestic natural gas production,together with lower space heating demand amid a mild Q4 and high inventory levels,pushed Henry Hub 50%below its average in Q4 2023.According to forward curves as of mid-January 2024,TTF is expected

277、to average 20%below its 2023 levels in 2024,at around USD 10/MBtu.Forward curves suggest that Asian spot LNG prices will retain their premium over European hub prices in 2024,with JKM averaging USD 1/MBtu above TTF.This should provide an incentive for higher LNG flows into the Asian markets.Based on

278、 forward curves,Henry Hub prices in the United States are set to increase by 15%amid tighter market fundamentals,with an average close to USD 3/MBtu.Gas Market Report,Q1-2024 PAGE|47 Gas market update IEA.CC BY 4.0.Asian spot LNG prices are expected to retain their premium over TTF in 2024 IEA.CC BY

279、 4.0.Note:Future prices are based on forward curves as of the end of September 2023 and do not represent a price forecast.Sources:IEA analysis based on CME Group(2023),Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures Quotes,Dutch TTF Natural Gas Month Futures Settlements,LNG Japan/Korea Marker(Platts)Futures Settlemen

280、ts;EIA(2023),Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price;Powernext(2023),Spot Market Data;S&P Global(2023),Platts Connect.0 20 40 60Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4202220232024USD/MBtuTTFHenry HubPlatts JKMMain spot and forward natural gas prices,2020-2023 Gas Market Report,Q1-2024 PAGE|48 Gas market update IEA.CC BY

281、4.0.Natural gas storage continued to temper security of supply risks in 2023Levels of natural gas storage remained above average throughout 2023 and closed the year at or near the top of the five-year range in all three key regions.High inventory levels provide a safety buffer to demand centres,redu

282、cing supply risks from any unfavourable weather or potential supply disruptions during winter 2023/24.In the European Union subdued winter demand,together with ample pipeline and LNG imports,kept storage withdrawals almost 40%below their five-year average during the 2022/23 heating season.Consequent

283、ly,EU storage sites opened the 2023 gas summer 55%full,standing 65%(or 23 bcm)above their five-year average on 1 April.Storage injections fell 22%(or 12 bcm)below their five-year average in Q2-Q3 2023 amid lower primary gas supply.While slower injection rates moderated the EU storage surplus,invento

284、ry levels still stood 12%(or 10 bcm)above their five-year average on 1 October 2023.EU traders also injected 2 bcm of natural gas into Ukraines gas storage facilities before the start of the 2023/24 winter season.Lower EU gas demand in the first part of the winter kept storage withdrawals 21%(or 4 b

285、cm)below their five-year average.Consequently,EU storage sites closed 2023 86%full,with inventory levels standing 19%(or 15 bcm)above their five-year average.However,the risk of late-winter cold spells and unexpected supply constraints still looms in a relatively tight market.As such,end-of-winter f

286、ill levels in 2024 will be key in swaying market sentiment for the rest of the year.In the United States storage levels also remained well above five-year average levels in 2023,contrasting with a below-average year in 2022 as a result of strong withdrawals in first quarter of that year.Relatively w

287、eak heating demand during Q1 2023 and healthy domestic production helped reduce storage draw,pushing end-of-winter storage levels towards the top of the recent historical range.Despite year-on-year demand growth in all subsequent months of 2023,ample supply helped drive strong injections,pushing the

288、 maximum fill level ahead of winter up to around 90%of working storage capacity,or 6 bcm above the five-year average.After starting later than usual in the heating season,storage withdrawals picked up in late November and December but remained below average.Storage levels ended the year at the top o

289、f the five-year range.US storage sites closed 2023 82%full,with inventory levels standing 13%(or 11 bcm)above their five-year average.LNG storage levels in Japan and Korea entered 2023 at historical highs following a strong filling campaign in 2022.While stockpiles remained flat in Q1,lower LNG impo

290、rts in the summer months pulled LNG stocks below 2022 levels(notably in Japan).However,combined LNG stocks in the two countries rose to 18%above the five-year average by end-November,thanks to stable volumes in Korea and strong stockbuild in Japan.Declared LNG stocks held by Japans largest power uti

291、lities stood at 2.7 Mt(or 3.6 bcm)at the end of December 2023 30%above their five-year average.Gas Market Report,Q1-2024 PAGE|49 Gas market update IEA.CC BY 4.0.Storage inventories remained above average across key markets throughout 2023 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Sources:IEA analysis based on EIA(2023),Weekly

292、Working Gas in Underground Storage;GIE(2023),AGSI+Database;IEA(2023),Monthly Gas Data Service.US underground inventories EU underground inventories Japan and Korea LNG inventories Gas Market Report,Q1-2024 PAGE|50 Spotlight on GHG emissions IEA.CC BY 4.0.Spotlight on GHG emissions along gas value ch

293、ains Gas Market Report,Q1-2024 PAGE|51 Spotlight on GHG emissions IEA.CC BY 4.0.Cutting GHG emissions along gas value chains is crucial to reach net zeroThis section provides an overview of the GHG emissions reduction initiatives(policies and regulations)being undertaken by key gas and LNG producers

294、 and importers.It is a result of a survey carried out among the members of the IEA Task Force on Gas and Clean Fuels Market Monitoring and Supply Security(TFFS).Notably the data from different countries often vary due to the diverse scopes and methodologies applied,highlighting an urgent need for a

295、consistent,universally accepted framework for reporting GHG emissions,a framework that is currently under development.GHG emissions from natural gas-related operations(production,processing and transport)totalled 1.7 Gt CO2-eq in 2022,equating to around 5%of global energy-related GHG emissions.Metha

296、ne emissions,both upstream and downstream,accounted for around two-thirds of the total GHG emissions stemming from gas and LNG supply chains.The energy needs of the various processes associated with the extraction and processing of natural gas accounted for over 15%of the total GHG emissions,while t

297、he share from transport(both via pipeline and in the form of LNG)was around 10%.Vented CO2 contributed approximately a further 8%.As highlighted by the IEAs Oil and Gas Industry in Net Zero Transitions report,the scope 1 and 2 emissions intensity of natural gas averages 10 t CO2-eq/m3.However,emissi

298、ons intensity varies significantly,from less than 8 t CO2-eq/m3 for the best performers to 24t CO2-eq/m3 for the worst.Reducing emissions will require effort across the entire value chain.Halving the emissions intensity of scope 1 and 2 oil and gas-related operations would require USD 600 billion of

299、 investment between 2022 and 2030.Upstream and downstream methane emissions could be reduced by around 75%via measures such as leak detection,repair programmes and installing emissions control devices.Around 40%of methane emissions from oil and gas operations could be avoided at zero net cost.CCUS-b

300、ased solutions can reduce carbon emissions associated with the production of natural gas by capturing and storing reservoir CO2 during the processing of raw gas.The emissions intensity of natural gas transported via pipeline can be reduced through the mitigation of methane leaks and the electrificat

301、ion of compressor stations.In the case of LNG,the use of electric drives instead of gas turbines to power the liquefaction compressors can significantly improve the environmental performance of an LNG plant,provided that the electricity originates from low-emissions sources.In addition,CCUS-based so

302、lutions can be applied directly at the liquefaction plant level.Furthermore,the emissions intensity of LNG shipping can be improved via better fuel efficiency standards,enhanced boil-off management systems and the optimisation of shipping routes.Gas Market Report,Q1-2024 PAGE|52 Spotlight on GHG emi

303、ssions IEA.CC BY 4.0.International co-operation is key to reducing GHG emissions along gas value chainsInternational co-operation,together with publicprivate partnerships,will be central to facilitating and fast-tracking the reduction of GHG emissions stemming from gas and LNG supply chains.This sho

304、uld include establishing commonly agreed measurement,monitoring,reporting and verification(MMRV)mechanisms,sharing best practices on technologies that effectively reduce emission intensities and channelling financial flows towards projects that enable GHG emission reductions.In November 2021 the Glo

305、bal Methane Pledge(GMP)was launched at the 26th UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties(COP26).Over 150 countries,representing a little over 50%of global methane emissions,have joined the GMP,thereby committing to a collective goal of reducing global anthropogenic methane emissions by at least 3

306、0%compared to their 2020 levels by 2030.It is estimated that delivering the GMP would have a similar impact on global warming as switching the entire global transport sector to net zero emission technologies.The International Methane Emissions Observatory(IMEO)was launched at the G20 Leaders Summit

307、in 2021,with a focus on emissions from the fossil fuel industry.IMEO relies on data from the satellite-based Methane Alert and Response System(MARS),from industry reporting through the Oil and Gas Methane Partnership 2.0(OGMP 2.0),and from national inventories.Companies participating in OGMP 2.0 acc

308、ount for over 37%of the worlds oil and gas production and more than 70%of LNG flows.Methane emissions were in the spotlight at COP28 held in December 2023.The Oil and Gas Decarbonisation Charter(OGDC)was signed by 50 oil and gas companies(with national oil companies accounting for over 60%of signato

309、ries)who pledge to align with net zero by 2050,zero-out methane emissions and eliminate routine flaring by 2030.The World Bank launched the Global Flaring and Methane Reduction Partnership at COP28,backed by USD 255 million.The trust fund will be focused on helping developing countries cut CO2 and m

310、ethane emissions generated by the oil and gas industry.The GMP was joined by six new countries,including Turkmenistan,which has one of the highest GHG emission intensities among gas suppliers.The IEA provides country-level information on sources of methane emissions through its Global Methane Tracke

311、r,with a detailed view of abatement options and policy solutions for the oil and gas sector.The reduction of GHG emissions from gas value chains is part of the work programme of the IEAs TFFS,which provides a platform for data and information exchange among its members and facilitates the sharing of

312、 best practices related to GHG emissions reductions.Gas Market Report,Q1-2024 PAGE|53 Spotlight on GHG emissions IEA.CC BY 4.0.Upstream and downstream4 methane emissions account for two-thirds of total GHG emissions along gas and LNG value chains IEA.CC BY 4.0.Note:One tonne of methane is taken to b

313、e equivalent to 30 tonnes of CO2 based on a 100-year global warming potential.Source:IEA(2023),The Oil and Gas Industry in Net Zero Transitions.4 Upstream refers to exploration and production of natural gas,midstream is the transportation and storage of natural gas,and downstream refers to the conve

314、rsion of natural gas into finished products.Breakdown of global GHG emissions from natural gas supply,2022 0 200 400 600 8001 0001 2001 4001 6001 800UpstreammethaneDownstreammethaneEnergyneedsTransportVentedCO2TotalGHG emissionsMt CO2-eq Gas Market Report,Q1-2024 PAGE|54 Spotlight on GHG emissions I

315、EA.CC BY 4.0.The United States deployed new policy measures to reduce GHG emissionsThe United States became the worlds largest LNG exporter in 2023,just seven years after the first cargo left the Sabine Pass LNG terminal in Louisiana.US LNG exports totalled 118 bcm in 2023 and are expected to expand

316、 by close to 50%by 2026.As reported by the US Environmental Protection Agency(EPA),GHG emissions at LNG plant level rose more than tenfold from just 1.4 Mt CO2-eq in 2016 to 16.1 Mt CO2-eq in 2022,implying a plant-level emission intensity of around 0.1 t CO2-eq/t LNG in 2022.The United States has im

317、plemented several policies and regulations to control and reduce GHG emissions from its gas supply chains:Through the Inflation Reduction Act(IRA)and Bipartisan Infrastructure Law(BIL)the EPA is providing up to USD 1.55 billion in financial and technical assistance to reduce methane emissions in the

318、 oil and gas sector.BIL provides nearly USD 5 billion to plug tens of thousands of orphaned oil and gas wells,which are significant methane emitters.In December 2023 the EPA issued a final rule to reduce methane emissions and other harmful air pollution from oil and natural gas operations.It include

319、s New Source Performance Standards to reduce methane and smog-forming volatile organic compounds from new,modified and reconstructed sources,and emissions guidelines that set procedures for states to follow as they develop plans to limit methane from existing sources.In addition,the final rule inclu

320、des a Super Emitter Program that will utilise third-party expertise in remote sensing to detect large methane releases or leaks known as“super emitters”,which recent studies have indicated account for almost half of methane emissions from the oil and gas sector.The US government leads and/or partici

321、pates in numerous international initiatives aimed at reducing GHG emissions along gas supply chains.The United States provides technical assistance for methane measurement and mitigation through the EPA Global Methane Initiative,the Climate and Clean Air Coalition,the UN Environment Programmes Inter

322、national Methane Emissions Observatory,the World Bank Global Gas Flaring Reduction Partnership and the Commercial Law Development Program.In April 2023 President Biden launched the Methane Finance Sprint,aiming to raise at least USD 200 million of funding by COP28.This funding target should now be e

323、xceeded thanks to contributions from the United States and other countries.While there is no federal definition or standard for“responsibly sourced”natural gas(RSG)in the United States,there are several initiatives at state level and within the industry to promote its production,use and certificatio

324、n.Industry surveys show that almost 30%of US gas production in 2022 was certified for its performance against certain environmental,social and governance metrics.Gas Market Report,Q1-2024 PAGE|55 Spotlight on GHG emissions IEA.CC BY 4.0.GHG emissions from US LNG production have risen more than tenfo

325、ld since 2016 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Note:Data as reported by the US EPA.Source:IEA analysis based on US Environmental Protection Agency(2023),Facility Level Information on GreenHouse gases Tool(FLIGHT).0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 162016201720182019202020212022Mt CO2-eqSabine PassCorpus Christi LNGFreeport LNGCameron

326、 LNGCove PointElba Island LNGCalcasieu PassGHG emissions from US LNG production at LNG plant level,2016-2022 Gas Market Report,Q1-2024 PAGE|56 Spotlight on GHG emissions IEA.CC BY 4.0.Australia is tightening GHG emissions regulations to meet its 2050 net zero targetAustralias LNG production has grow

327、n strongly over the past decade,from just above 30 bcm in 2012 to 108 bcm in 2023,making it the worlds third-largest LNG exporter behind the United States and Qatar.GHG emissions from LNG production have increased by almost 50%since the financial year(FY)2016/17 to reach 36 Mt CO2-eq.in FY 2021/22.5

328、 Given Australias LNG production of about 83 mtpa(or 113 bcm)in FY 2021-22,the estimated emission intensity at the facility level is approximately 0.4 t CO2-eq/t LNG.Australia has taken regulatory steps to enhance data transparency and reduce emissions from its gas production and LNG export plants.T

329、he National Greenhouse and Energy Reporting(NGER)scheme is a legislative framework that has been in operation for over a decade in Australia.It requires companies to report GHG emissions,and energy production and consumption annually.The NGER scheme data cover approximately 60%of GHG emissions in th

330、e national inventory,and 80%of energy consumption.This includes all Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change combustion and fugitive emission sources from gas supply chains within Australias territorial boundary,and the scheme is compliant with reporting obligations under the United Nations Framewo

331、rk Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC)and the Paris 5 Based on data from the Australian Clean Energy Regulator(CER).CER is an independent authority,enforces laws to curb GHG emissions and boost clean energy,manages various Agreement.Key features of the NGER scheme include:(1)legislated thresholds f

332、or companies to report emissions and energy data;(2)a framework for measurement,reporting and verification of emissions and energy data;(3)a requirement for the release of enterprise-level emissions and energy data for public access.The Safeguard Mechanism,established in 2016 and reformed in 2023,is

333、 a policy that aims to gradually reduce the GHG emissions of Australias largest emitters(scope 1 emissions over 100 000 t CO2-eq)and help the country meet its international climate commitments.It requires these facilities to keep their net emissions below an emissions limit(called baseline)set by the Clean Energy Regulator.Baselines are adjusted according to production levels so that they increase