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1、Market-Moving Trends to Watch in H2 2024Whats Inside1 Introduction2 CHAPTER 1 Red Sea Crisis4 CHAPTER 2 Chinese Imports6 CHAPTER 3 CHIPS Act8 CHAPTER 4 Obesity Drugs10 CHAPTER 5 Reshoring 12 CHAPTER 6 Russia-Ukraine War 14 CHAPTER 7 Green Energy 16 CHAPTER 8 Generative AIIntroductionAs businesses,su

2、pply chains,and consumer behavior prepare for the unpredictable months ahead,it can feel impossible to identify the most pressing topics C-suite leaders should concern themselves with.Today,its imperative to not only determine where the market is heading,but implement research methods that will help

3、 you get ahead of it.For example,generative AI(genAI)is revolutionizing industries by changing the way business is conducted in the most fundamental ways.Our 2023 State of Generative AI&Market Intelligence report found that 65%of professionals currently use AI in their research,and a whopping 80%exp

4、ect to increase their reliance on this technology in the next 12 months.2024 forced most corporations to realize that opportunities are often short-lived,as volatility and technological transformation have made it even more challenging for professionals to make decisions.If a company doesnt move fas

5、t enough or finds information a day too late,the chance to make an informed decision could be forever lost.Likewise,traditional market intelligence is filled with friction and inefficiency,and is typically conducted in highly reactive ways.Companies need a way to stay smarter,agile,and continuously

6、informed about their industries and the world at large.With the power of our award-winning research platform,weve combed through thousands of corporate earnings call transcripts,interviews from our expert call library,research documents,and more(all found within our vast content universe)to identify

7、 the top 10 key market-moving trends to keep an eye on for 2024 H2.1CHAPTER 1Red Sea Crisis544TOTAL DOCUMENTS49.37%90D CHANGESuez Canal30 OCT 2330 JAN 2429 APR 242550751001251002003004005002,179TOTAL DOCUMENTS41.15%90D CHANGERed Sea30 OCT 2330 JAN 2429 APR 242The Yemeni militia attacks in the Red Se

8、a area have forced companies reliant on the shortest Asia-EU route to seek alternative shipping options,leading to costly detours around Africa and spikes in spot rates.The disruption is compounded by drought-related restrictions at the Panama Canal,another shipping choke point.“How it might end?It

9、requires a political solution.As of now,the shipping companies have tried but I dont see any shipping company able to bend the political needle in their favor.Its almost 260 days since the Red Sea crisis broke out and it looks like companies are on their own.There is not necessarily a lack of politi

10、cal intent to solve this in favor of the companies.”Former VP|July 2024|Expert Transcript Call“So we have contracted container rates,of course,like most folks do.And so far with us,its been a week-to-week kind of thing where some weeks we will get the containers we need at the contracted rate,so the

11、res no adverse effect.Some weeks,were not.And the spot rates have definitely gone up.The shipping companies are playing games on all of this again.Of course,there are some big factors with the Suez Canal,et cetera.Were looking very hard at a surcharge.”Bassett Furniture Industries,Inc.|Q2 2024 Earni

12、ngs Call 3CHAPTER 2Chinese Imports12,072TOTAL DOCUMENTS38.94%90D CHANGETensions2505007501000125030 OCT 2330 JAN 2429 APR 249,681TOTAL DOCUMENTS91.54%90D CHANGETariffs30 OCT 2330 JAN 2429 APR 2425050075010004Theres been a persistent increase of transcripts mentioning“tensions”in regards to global pro

13、tectionist and similar policies taking hold.As tensions between the Western world and China escalate due to tech rivalry and spying allegations,we have also noticed mentions of“tariffs,”as well as increased volatility in the stock prices of companies with exposure to Chinese exports.“And then on the

14、 flip side,geopolitics are an important factor in terms of where youre sourcing your products from.Many consumer goods were being made in Asia and China used,which was a pretty big factor.But since 2018 and 19,when Trump was the President of the US with all these tariff talks,there has been a lot of

15、 transition from China to many other regions,whether its Latin America,Mexico or the rest of Asia like Vietnam,Cambodia,et cetera.“Scancom Plc|March 2024|Shareholder/Analyst Call“You would think that maybe Western foundries and IDMs might not be comfortable having Chinese tools for very critical par

16、ts of the manufacturing process because if tensions increase,potentially,China could disable those tools and really render the fabs incapable of producing those chiplets.”Industry Expert|June 2024|Expert Call 5CHAPTER 3CHIPS ActSince the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic,semiconductor stockpiles have b

17、een dangerously low for international manufacturers,causing massive delays in supply chain production.To lift pressure off of Taiwan and stabilize manufacturing demands,Congress introduced the CHIPS(Creating Helpful Incentives to Produce Semiconductors)and Science of Act of 2022.This$52.7 billion bi

18、partisan agreement incentivizes domestic chip manufacturing,technology research and development while offering a new 25%tax credit for companies that invest in semiconductor manufacturing equipment or manufacturing facilities in the US.476TOTAL DOCUMENTS186.76%90D CHANGECHIPS Act30 OCT 2330 JAN 2429

19、 APR 241020304050606“There are many new fabs that are being built,and not all of them are necessarily associated with the CHIPS Act money.So thats why also in the past,we said that when it comes to 2025,more than half of the shipments will come from these fabs,but that will include new fabs being co

20、nstructed in Taiwan.So more than 50%of our shipments for 2025,we expect to go to new fabs.”ASML Holding N.V.|Q2 2024 Earnings Call “In particular,the Inflation Reduction Act has just resulted in a pretty substantial build-out of EV manufacturing,battery storage manufacturing.The CHIPS Act has done t

21、he same on the semiconductor manufacturing end.Policies have been around for quite some time,but the recent acceleration,I believe,is because of the IRA,IIJA,CHIPS Act,and then just industrial policy being something thats heavily discussed in the political spectrum.”Industry Expert|June 2024|Expert

22、Call 7CHAPTER 4Obesity DrugsWeekly US prescriptions of Novos Wegovy obesity treatment increased 450%YoY during 2Q23 and are dwarfing weekly prescriptions posted by the companys previous-generation Saxenda obesity drug.Suffice it to say the market opportunity for obesity drugs is substantial,as Morga

23、n Stanley projected the global obesity market to reach$77 billion in 2030.Competition is brewing,setting the stage for a landscape that will rapidly evolve in 2024 and beyond.637TOTAL DOCUMENTS118.49%90D CHANGEObesity Drugs30 OCT 2330 JAN 2429 APR 242040608“But recognize that in the future,the prima

24、ry market for using obesity drugs is going to be long-term treatment.Its going to be maintenance.And the shift we believe well see is going to be on how much weight loss do you experience over a year to how much weight loss do you manage and maintain over the course of several years?And do you maint

25、ain it safely without the side effects of that weight loss?And we think,regarding that and our cardiac profile,that were really in a superb position.”Altimmune,Inc|May 2024|Conference Transcript“The other opportunity,I think,is if the government really,in earnest,starts paying for obesity drugs,payi

26、ng for weight loss drugs.Historically,they have not paid for weight loss drugs.It has been self-pay.The GLP-1s is a little bit of an exception.I think that the government has started to pay for some specific indications.”Former VP,AMGN|July 2024|Expert Call 9CHAPTER 5ReshoringWith so much geopolitic

27、al unrest at play in todays economy,establishing stable supply chains starts with reshoring.This strategy brings production and manufacturing“back home,”i.e.returning it to the country in which the company was first established.According to Deloitte,American manufacturers will reshore nearly 350,000

28、 jobs in 2022a 25%increase compared to the previous year.“The manufactured product sector continues to develop as we see ongoing reshoring and measuring,particularly in the US.Material handling remains a little soft as does mining and quarrying is still very much my belief that derisking of supply c

29、hains is a top priority for many industrial groups.”Renold Plc|July 2024|Earnings Call637TOTAL DOCUMENTS37.43%90D CHANGEReshoring30 OCT 2330 JAN 2429 APR 242040608010“A lot of these reshoring trends have been occurring over the last decade or so,but as the US has just prioritized industrial policy a

30、nd trying to bring back onshore businesses,industries,and sectors that were offshored in the 90s,whether that is automobile,steel,semiconductor manufacturing,what have you,I think those trends are only going to continue.What I think has happened as of recently is that the Inflation Reduction Act and

31、 the IIJA,both and the shock of the 2020 pandemic,all pull forward a lot of the onshoring policies,incentives,and the build-out of some of these facilities in the US.”Industry Expert|June 2024|Expert Call11CHAPTER 6Russia-Ukraine WarWhile Russia invaded Ukraine nearly two years ago,Putin continues t

32、o wage a destructive war(United Nations estimates that 90%of Ukraine could“freefall into poverty”due to the ongoing conflict).Initial support for President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his efforts to protect the country was amplewith the US sending$107 billion in aid.However,with an upcoming election,whe

33、re presidential candidate Donald Trump has voiced a pro-Putin stance,and warfare has sprouted between Israel and Gaza,financial backing for Ukraine may waver.Both Russia and Ukraine are major producers and exporters of essential commodities.19,199TOTAL DOCUMENTS56.36%90D CHANGEUkraine30 OCT 2330 JAN

34、 2429 APR 2450010001500200012“As we mentioned,we were down in Germany because we had lost a significant customer,but also our European joint ventures overall are feeling a bit of economic pressure based on the ongoing war with Ukraine and the externality thats causing,for example,higher energy price

35、s in Europe.”Northern Technologies International Corp.|Q3 2024|Earnings Call“One of the things thats really rocked the industry outside of COVID was the Ukraine and Russia conflict that has had an impact on the titanium marketplace.The worlds largest melter of titanium actually was a company based i

36、n Russia which is the one exception to my comment about them wanting to deal with US-based companies.”Former Sr.Director,ATI|June 2024|Expert Call13CHAPTER 8Green Energy As societal concerns about climate change climb,interest in ESG investing grows,and new global crises destabilize supply chains,st

37、akeholders and private equity firms are funneling capital into potential energy solutions.Geopolitical events have only reminded nations around the world that some sources of fossil fuel are unreliable and that renewable energy initiatives are becoming business-as-usual.Today,countries are transitio

38、ning their infrastructures to rely on clean energy,reducing their carbon footprint,and becoming self-sufficient in fulfilling their energy demands.4,629TOTAL DOCUMENTS11.38%90D CHANGEGreen Energy30 OCT 2330 JAN 2429 APR 2410020030040050060014“In recent years,there has been a notable shift towards gr

39、een energy as evidenced by the implementation of comprehensive regulatory frameworks in the EU and the USA.However,there are still areas such as green hydrogen and CCS,which require further agreement and development in terms of regulatory guidelines to facilitate their growth and integration into th

40、e energy sector.”OMV Aktiengesellschaft|June 2024|Analyst/Investor Day Transcript“If Biden stays in office,hes been historically generous to green energy but mainly surrounding EV.My educated prediction is that in terms of taxes,it may be better if Biden was not reelected,but I do know for a fact th

41、at if he is reelected,money for the green energy industry will continue to flow.”Industry Expert|July 2024|Expert Call15CHAPTER 8Generative AIToday,generative artificial intelligence has been integrated into nearly every industry,ranging from healthcare to banking,retail,and even manufacturing.The f

42、ast adoption of genAI across sectors is due in part to its applications,which now span core functions in marketing and sales,product development,engineering,supply chain and operations,and support departments like IT,legal,talent acquisition and HR,strategy,and finance.“More importantly,we believe t

43、he opportunity around generative AI for our business is expansive and its going to materially impact all parts of our organization.”Elevance Health,Inc.|Q2 2024|Earnings Call2004006006,337TOTAL DOCUMENTS88.02%90D CHANGEGenerative AI30 OCT 2330 JAN 2429 APR 2416“Generative AI is the leading edge righ

44、t now.If youre not partnering with somebody,building your own,doing something about security,doing something about being able to deploy it on a business side,then I dont think youre up to date.”Former Competitor,HPE|July 2024|Expert Call17About AlphaSense The worlds most sophisticated companies rely

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