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1、simon-Joerg TritschlerMartin SlusarczykSantiago WochnerThe wild west of sales forecasting in pharmaceuticalsWhen expectation meets reality ContentsExecutive Summary 3Pharmaceutical companies in search of growth 4Sales forecasting:A cornerstone for decision-makers in pharma 6Comprehensive 5-year anal

2、ysis of sales forecast discrepancies 7Substantial deviations in pharma sales forecasts 8Exploring the drivers of forecast deviations beyond the numbers 10Insights for future growth in pharma 12Supplementary information(SI)13References 16Authors 173Executive SummaryThe pharmaceutical industry faces m

3、ajor challenges,as patent exclusivity for around 200 drugs will expire by 2030.The magnitude of these losses of exclusivity can affect up to 79 percent of a firms revenue,depending on the portfolio composition of the company in question.To sustain growth amidst declining R&D productivity,leading pha

4、rmaceutical companies are increasingly turning to inorganic growth strategies,such as licensing agreements,to replenish their pipelines.For example,between 2015 and 2021,72 percent of FDA-approved drugs were not developed in-house but were sourced via inorganic growth.But the success of such agreeme

5、nts depends on accurate due diligence assessments and forecasting.This raises a critical question about the accuracy of sales forecasts that influence business decisions in pharma,which our report examines.Our analysis of 50 US prescription drugs in the first five years after approval showed that th

6、e majority of sales forecasts were off by a large margin.Only 12 percent had a 25 percent margin of accuracy,while 30 out of 50 were off by a factor of two or more.Furthermore,we analyzed the 10 drugs with the largest deviations between forecasts and actual sales to identify the drivers leading to t

7、he substantial disparities between sales forecasts and actual sales figures.Pharmaceutical companies experience significant consequences because of unreliable sales forecasts.Accurate due diligence assessments and forecasting are paramount for companies navigating the complex landscape of innovation

8、 and growth.Our analysis emphasizes that companies should increasingly consider and invest into the following best practices for rigorous due diligence processes:Objectivized external market research with payers and prescribers to test hypotheses and minimize internal biases within the company Prici

9、ng and market access in light of the complex payer landscapes such as increasing US payer management,even in historically protected areas like oncology,and rising payer and HTA expectations in Europe Capabilities of the field force responsible for commercializing the asset Critical factors for disco

10、unted cash flows,most notably the evolution of the market landscape,market shares,and price over time4Pharmaceutical companies in search of growthThe pharmaceutical industry is in the midst of a monumental challenge,one that has the potential to revolutionize the industry as a whole.By 2030,nearly 2

11、00 drugs will lose their patent exclusivity(Dutton,2022).Among them are 69 blockbusters drugs,including Ibrance,Trulicity,and Keytruda(see Supplementary information SI 1).The loss of patents will impact almost all pharmaceutical companies,who may incur major financial losses.For individual companies

12、,these losses could result in losing a major share of their current business,requiring downsizing or a quick renewal of their clinical pipeline(Dutton,2022).As such,this patent-cliff is anticipated to be one of the steepest for the industry(Parrish,2023).It is time for pharmaceutical companies to re

13、plenish their portfolios to bring the next generation of drugs to market.Despite the need for new drugs,a trend of diminishing internal research and development(R&D)in the largest biopharma companies is evident.Recent findings show that between 2015 and 2021,just 28 percent of drugs that gained US F

14、ood and Drug Administration(FDA)approval were developed in-house.The other 72 percent have been externally sourced via mergers and acquisitions(M&A),licensing agreements,or other forms of collaboration(see Figure 1;Schuhmacher et al.,2023a).Origin of FDA-approved new drugs(total:138)filed by the top

15、-20 biopharma companies between 2015 and 2021(Schuhmacher et al.,2023a).Figure 1 Furthermore,analyses show that 70 percent of phase three assets come from small firms(annual revenues of less than USD 500 million)and not from major pharma com-panies(Oded and Frame,2021).Growing organically has become

16、 increasingly challenging and has resulted in an industry shift toward the capitalization of external innovation through strategic transactions(Teramae et al.,2020).Currently,almost half of leading pharmaceutical companies need to compensate for negative R&D productivity through inorganic growth(Sch

17、uhmacher et al.,2023b).28%65%5%2%InternalExternalCollaborationOther5One emerging source for growth is licensing agreements.With an average cost of$375 million between 2020 and 2023,these agreements have substantial impact on both the sellers and buyers long-term success and future profit potential(S

18、imon-Kucher,2023a).Therefore,the progress of pharmaceutical companies in commercializing new drugs relies increasingly on inorganic growth.6Sales forecasting:A cornerstone for decision-makers in pharmaThe looming patent-cliff,coupled with diminishing internal drug development and a growing reliance

19、on inorganic growth,underscores the importance of sales forecasting.Businesses use sales forecasts to determine the overall deal value,including upfront payments,royalty sizes,and further commitments such as cost-sharing for R&D initiatives.When sales forecasts are overly optimistic,the buy-side ris

20、ks overpaying for an asset and the sell-side may encounter difficulties in finding buyers.Should the sales forecast underestimate actual sales,the buy-side may decide against purchasing a potentially vital asset for replenishing its pipeline,while the sell-side risks undervaluing the asset.In recent

21、 years,licensing agreements have become increasingly relevant,particularly in rapidly evolving areas such as antibody-drug conjugates(ADCs)within oncology research(Fu et al.,2022).This significance is underscored by the remarkable growth in the value of ADC-related licensing deals,which saw a 400 pe

22、rcent increase between 2017 and 2022 alone(GlobalData Healthcare,2023).Ultimately,sales forecasts serve as a tool across two key domains:portfolio strategy and asset-specific expenses.Portfolio strategy relies on the precision of forecasts to inform decisions about which therapeutic areas to pursue

23、and to guide go or no-go decisions(e.g.,for new clinical trials).Additionally,forecasts help assess the return of investment for inorganic growth strategies.Highly accurate forecasts are crucial for guiding the allocation of resources across brand-specific teams for asset-specific expenses,notably m

24、edical,marketing and sales,and market access.The interplay of these domains highlights the multifaceted influence that accurate sales forecasts have over the success of launched drugs.7Comprehensive 5-year analysis of sales forecast discrepancies To gain a comprehensive understanding of the forecast

25、 accuracies,we conducted an analysis centered on prescription drugs that obtained FDA approval between 2015 and 2017.We specifically assessed the cumulative sales of each asset during the first five years post-launch and compared them to actual sales.By analyzing cumulative sales data from the past

26、five years,we were able to carry out a meaningful assessment.Focusing on the recent timeframe of 2015 to 2022 allowed us to draw conclusions about the accuracy of present-day drug sales forecasting.We retrieved actual sales data from the annual reports of the companies under review.Sales forecasts w

27、ere obtained from GlobalData,a provider of data analysis services.This database contains consensus forecasts from investment banks and research companies(each sales forecast is informed by at least three different sources).It is important to note that the forecasts included in the analysis were made

28、 after the pivotal clinical trials for regulatory approval had been published.Therefore,any deviations of sales forecasts from actual sales must be attributed to market developments,which could have been(better)anticipated by forecasters,rather than by unforeseeable clinical trial outcomes.In total,

29、50 out of 146 drugs met the criteria for this analysis.Specifically,the analyzed sample provided a dataset of both actual sales and sales forecasts within the first five years following the drug launch,fulfilling the prerequisites for our investigation.The analyzed drugs encompass a diverse array of

30、 therapeutic areas,with oncology,infectious diseases,and central nervous system(CNS)being the most prominently represented.Twelve drugs were first-in-class agents,while the remaining 38 were follow-on drugs.Furthermore,13 of the included drugs are biologics,while the remaining 37 are small molecules

31、.Finally,the sample contains 34 drugs from big pharma companies(defined as pharmaceutical company with 2022 annual sales exceeding$15 billion)as well as 16 drugs from small-to mid-sized companies.The variety of drugs in this sample gives us a good representation of the current pharmaceutical market.

32、8Substantial deviations in pharma sales forecastsThe data analysis shows that both substantial underestimations and overestimations of sales are common:26 out of 50 forecasts underestimate actual sales while 24 overestimate them.Importantly,only 12 percent of forecasts are within a range of+/-25 per

33、cent of actual sales.Substantial deviations,often twofold or greater,are commonplace.For 14(28 percent)drugs,sales were underestimated by a factor greater than two,while for 16(32 percent)drugs,sales were overestimated by more than double.This underscores the significant divergence between sales for

34、ecasts and actual sales.Bridging this first analysis with the previously outlined importance of sales forecasts for decision-making and the continuously increasing relevance for external growth,two questions arise:1)Which are the key drivers for forecasts missing actual sales by a factor of two or m

35、ore in 60 percent of cases?2)What impact does the lack of forecast precision have on the growth strategies of pharmaceutical companies?An analysis of key subsets of drugs has been conducted to shed additional light on sales forecasting accuracy.Table 1 shows the share of forecasts that lie within+/-

36、25 percent of actual sales for three different subsets of drugs.There are only minor differences in the oncology vs.non-oncology and first-class vs.follow-on subsets.However,the analysis of big pharma vs.small/medium-sized pharmaceutical companies shows significant differences in sales forecasting a

37、ccuracy.Forecasts for drugs made by big Comparison of cumulated forecasted sales vs.cumulated actual sales in the first five years following market launch in the US.Simon-Kucher analysis,2023b(Database utilized:GlobalData).Figure 2 4(8%)10(20%)8(16%)4(8%)2(4%)4(8%)2(4%)16(32%)048121620100%Number of

38、consensus forecastsPercentage difference of forecasted vs.actual cumulative sales(first 5 years)UNDERESTIMATESOVERESTIMATESSales=Forecast(0%difference)Forecasts for 32%of analyzed drugs were at least 100%above actual sales(cumulative over 5Y)9pharma firms are typically more accurate than those for s

39、maller firms.This may be explained by their greater experience of launching drugs,more established operations,and a larger sales force.This stability may also empower forecasters to predict the development of a drug more accurately.Nevertheless,even for the largest companies in the sector,the propor

40、tion of accurate forecasts is less than one in five.Analysis of forecasting accuracy in subsets of the analyzed sample of 50 drugs.Simon-Kucher analysis,2023b(Database utilized:GlobalData).Share of accurate forecasts*(%of forecasts within+/-25%of actual sales)Oncology vs.non-oncologyOncology(17%)vs.

41、non-oncology(13%)First-in-class vs.follow-onFirst-in-class(17%)vs.follow-on(13%)Big pharma vs.small/mediumBig pharma(18%)vs.small/medium(6%)*Accurate forecasts are defined as forecasts which have a maximum deviation of+/-25%of actual sales.Table 110Exploring the drivers of forecast deviations beyond

42、 the numbersWhat are the underlying factors responsible for the substantial disparities between sales forecasts and actual sales figures?To address this,we delved into the five largest forecast outliers for both overestimations and underestimations(see Supplementary information SI 2 and SI 3).We rev

43、iewed retrospective analyst and medical expert statements,as well as annual reports of the respective companies,focusing exclusively on forecasts provided after the pivotal clinical trials had been published.This approach again effectively accounts for the inherent uncertainty of clinical trial outc

44、omes,attributing most forecast inaccuracies to market developments influenced by the launching pharmaceutical companys accurate forecasts.Drivers of forecast overestimationLower-than-expected sales figures can be attributed to pricing and market access,as well as marketing strategies and salesforce

45、effectiveness.Experts and annual reports suggest the limited understanding of pricing dynamics had a significant impact on the launch success of small-and mid-sized companies.This may be due to inaccurate primary research or challenges in grasping the complex US payer dynamics,which may have contrib

46、uted to suboptimal product launches.The analyzed sample shows that mispricing led to post-launch price corrections,which included giving large discounts over time.Additionally,our analysis reveals that drugs with overestimated sales mostly launched in highly competitive markets,especially with major

47、 players as key competitors,potentially intensifying pricing pressure.Post-launch,the competition for underperforming drugs often intensified,sometimes with new players entering the market with both branded drugs and generic alternatives.Given that forecasts are expected to incorporate pricing dynam

48、ics and market developments(such as the evolving competitive landscape),the question emerges as to why forecasts of underperforming drugs failed to meet expectations.One further notable common factor that may have contributed to less than expected revenues was the relative inexperience,particularly

49、within small-and mid-sized companies,in launching drugs.It is worth highlighting that four out of the top five underperforming drugs were launched by manufacturers that launched an asset for the first time in the companys history.Alongside relative inexperience,these companies have 11comparatively s

50、mall marketing and sales units,which makes them less effective com-pared to larger competitors.Ultimately,the smaller field force may translate into a decreased momentum for market penetration as well as a limited ability to effectively position the product with medical professionals and to mitigate

51、 potential medical concerns.Drivers of forecast underestimationWithin the subset of pharmaceuticals that substantially outperformed their initial sales forecasts,a comparable pattern emerged.It featured pricing strategies deemed“surprising”or“clever”by analysts,by clinical superiority,as well as by

52、experienced and large marketing and salesforce teams.The overperformers succeeded in pricing by evaluating the competitive landscape,understanding key asset value drivers,and considering how these impact payer and prescriber decision-making.Moreover,overperformers faced lower market and payer-induce

53、d price pressures compared with drugs that did not meet sales expectations.The forecasts were again not able to draw a realistic picture of the competitive landscape and market environment(e.g.,overall market growth),thus failing to reflect a drugs potential.Four of the five underestimated drugs ana

54、lyzed were launched in large indications with a large hypothetical sales potential.This may indicate that forecasters generally adjust their projections to mean or historic values to avoid mistakes.Finally,overperformers displayed a stronger marketing and salesforce,a factor that may not have been s

55、ufficiently accounted for in sales forecasts.12Insights for future growth in pharma The impending loss of patent exclusivity for many drugs in the coming years,along with the diminishing output from internal R&D,are certain realities in the pharmaceutical industry.In response,leading manufacturers a

56、re shifting their focus toward inorganic growth:alongside M&A,licensing agreements are increasingly gaining in importance.Since acquisitions as well as licensing agreements require large investments,accurate sales forecasting is critical.Executives can only make decisions about the appropriate deal

57、terms with accurate forecasts,including detailed price and volume information,at hand.However,our analysis has identified substantial deviations in sales forecasts that undermine the utility of these as a tool for decision-making.The majority of analyzed forecasts deviate by a factor of greater than

58、 two vs.actual sales figures.To improve forecast quality,we suggest a greater reliance on objective,external primary prescriber and payer research to critically validate assumptions and to avoid biases.This research is relevant both independently,to understand underlying pricing and(current and futu

59、re)usage dimensions,as well as in combination,to comprehend how payer allowed access influences physician prescribing under payer restrictions.From analyzing analogs and our own experience,we observe a lack of focus on payer access/restrictions and how it affects prescription volumes.This is further

60、 evidenced by increasing US payer management,even in historically protected therapeutic areas like oncology,and rising reimbursement restrictions in European markets.13DrugMA-holderYear of first approval(US)Loss of exclusivity(expected year,US*)Revenues in 2022 (US,in million USD)BenlystaGlaxoSmithK

61、line201120251,170DescovyGilead201620251,631EntrestoNovartis201520252,354ProliaAmgen201020252,465XeljanzPfizer201220251,129YervoyBristol Myers Squibb201120251,304XareltoJohnson&Johnson 201120252,473EliquisBristol Myers Squibb/Pfizer201220267,786KadcylaRoche20132026859SolirisAstraZeneca200720272,180Ey

62、leaRegeneron201120276,265IbrancePfizer201520273,370TrulicityEli Lilly201420275,689TysabriBiogen200420271,123XtandiPfizer/Astellas Pharma201220272,525ImbruvicaAbbVie201320283,426KeytrudaMerck&Co.2014202812,686OpdivoBristol Myers Squibb201420284,812OtezlaAmgen201420281,886CosentyxNovartis201520292,770

63、JardianceEli Lilly201420291,195*Loss of exclusivity dates are estimated based on available data on key patent expirations.Changes may occur in both the short-and long-term due to various factors.Excerpt of top-selling drugs facing loss of exclusivity in the US from 2025 to 2029.(Orange Book(FDA),com

64、pany filings,and GlobalData).Supplementary information 1(SI 1)14Company typeTherapeutic areaRoute of administrationKey drivers for inaccurate forecasting*Small/medium ToxicologySubcutaneous Launch in a highly competitive environment characterized by significant payer utilization management which mig

65、ht have not been appropriately considered.Competition emerged both from existing branded products and from upcoming generic alternatives.Market authorization(MA)-holder mispriced the drug leading to unfavorable formulary tiering and hence low uptake which was corrected post-launch(by giving large di

66、scounts).Big pharmaOncologyOral The MA-holder did not conduct a robust physician demand study,such as a semi-quantitative assessment with prescribers to scrutinize prescribing tendencies.Subsequently,the MA-holder faced challenges in addressing healthcare professionals concerns about prevalent side

67、effects.Small/mediumHormonal disordersOral The MA-holder,undertaking its first product launch,encountered challenges due to a lack of experience and resources(e.g.,by not having an established salesforce).The product launched entered a market characterized by intense competition,with larger manufact

68、urers possessing significantly more resources,as highlighted in the MA-holders annual report.These resources were considered crucial for a successful product launch.Coverage was less extensive than analysts had forecasted.Main reasons were that the products medical characteristics offered no benefit

69、 over the standard of care as well as challenges in market acceptance due to cost concerns.The launch of similar branded and generic products just months after MA further limited the scope of coverage.Ultimately,the product positioned itself in lower coverage tiers than forecasted by analysts.Small/

70、mediumOncologyOral Forecasts did not sufficiently account for future competitor entries,as a substantially larger competitor launched a comparable drug shortly after the MA-holder.Substantial parts of the salesforce were only hired after FDA approval(as it was the first approved drug in the companys

71、 history),which negatively impacted uptake speed and resilience against competitors.Small/mediumEar,nose,throat disordersIntranasal The MA-holder conducted the companys first ever product launch.The resulting lack of experience might have been a disadvantage compared to competitors.The anticipated p

72、ricing power of te MA-holder,as forecasted by analysts,did not materialize in the market.Pre-launch research conducted with payers highlighted the criticality of competitive pricing for uptake,which does not align with the MA-holders expected price-premium.The product was ultimately launched in Tier

73、 3(vs.forecasted Tier-4)reimbursement,which had substantial pricing implications.The unexpected placement resulted in the product being used after the available generics and ultimately required a co-payment from patients.Both affected the products uptake.*Information to identify the key drivers for

74、inaccuracies in forecasts was derived from analyst and medical expert statements,annual reports and Simon-Kucher internal knowledge.Analysis results of top-5 sales forecasts overestimating actual sales,based on the analyzed sample of 50 drugs.Simon-Kucher analysis,2023c.Supplementary information 2(S

75、I 2)15Company typeTherapeutic areaRoute of administrationKey drivers for inaccurate forecasting*Big pharmaInfectious diseasesIntramuscular Forecasts did not sufficiently capture the complexities of the market and medical landscape.Key factors underestimated may have included the rapid growth rate of

76、 the overall market in which the product was launched,the drugs superiority over the standard of care,and the significant influence of a strong recommendation from the Center for Disease Control and Prevention(CDC).The MA-holder employed an aggressive marketing strategy and effectively utilized its

77、resources to establish a favorably positioning with pharmacies to guarantee a broad availability of the product.Big pharmaImmunologySubcutaneous Forecasts did not sufficiently include the substantial price premium the MA-holder was able to achieve resulting from strong clinical outcomes in projectio

78、ns.The MA-holder was able to gain market share vs.lower-priced competitors despite the employed price premium.Key reason for this gain in market share was a superiority vs.standard of care(SoC)shown in a reduced administration frequency combined with higher efficacy which was perceived as very advan

79、tageous by payers and healthcare professionals.Big pharmaImmunologyOral Following a delay in regulatory approval,sales forecasts were slashed by about 50%.This adjustment might have given undue weight to the delay,leading to a forecast that substantially misaligned with the eventual market performan

80、ce.The disproportionate focus on the delayed launch in the revised forecasts may have been the result of a limited understanding of launch-timing-dynamics.This included the misinterpretation of the competitive landscape,where one major player entered the market approximately one year after the MA-ho

81、lder and another failed to obtain FDA approval.Big pharmaDermatologySubcutaneous Forecasts were imprecise with regard to the competitive environment,as the MA-holders drug significantly outperformed competitors from a clinical outcomes perspective.Price-volume trade-offs were not correctly anticipat

82、ed.The MA-holders product was considered to be favorably priced relative to comparators.This not only resulted in advantages in the targeted severe patient population,but also extended to moderate cases,as the price was considered advantageous in this subpopulation as well.Big pharmaRespiratorySubcu

83、taneous Forecasts significantly underestimated price potential,as price comparators were incorrectly chosen.The MA-holder launched its product with a substantial price premium vs.the forecasted price.Forecasts might have underestimated the MA-holders strong foothold and experience in the products ma

84、rket,especially as medical experts projected the high importance of relationships with prescribers in the targeted indication.*Information to identify the key drivers for inaccuracies in forecasts was derived from analyst and medical expert statements,annual reports and Simon-Kucher internal knowled

85、ge.Analysis results of top-5 sales forecasts underestimating actual sales,based on the analyzed sample of 50 drugs.Simon-Kucher analysis,2023c.Supplementary information 3(SI 3)16ReferencesA.Schuhmacher,M.Hinder,A.Dodel,O.Gassmann and D.Hartl(2023a).Investigating the origins of recent pharmaceutical

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90、https:/ 30th,2023).Simon-Kucher(2023a).Average value and median of licensing agreements(n=487 deals;2020-2023).Calculated with the GlobalData Pharmaceutical Database.Available at:https:/ required(Accessed:November 15th,2023).Simon-Kucher(2023b).Actual sales and sales forecast data(n=146 drugs;2015-2

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92、g.Analysis conducted with analyst and medical statement(public and from GlobalData),company filings,and Simon-Kucher internal knowledge(Information retrieved:November 20th 23rd).U.S.Food and Drug Administration.(2023).Approved Drug Products with Therapeutic Equivalence Evaluations(Orange Book).Avail

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94、.17AuthorsJoerg TritschlerPartnerOffice ZurichTel.:+41 44 55680 02 Mobile:+41 78 9 78 78 15joerg.tritschlersimon-Martin SlusarczykDirectorOffice ZurichTel.:+41 44 226 5040 Mobile:+41 763 238941martin.slusarczyksimon-Santiago WochnerAssociate Consultant,Student University of St.Gallen,SwitzerlandOffice ZurichTel.:+41 44 226 5040santiago.wochnersimon-Discover more on simon-Follow us on 2024 Simon,Kucher&Partners Strategy&Marketing Consultants AG.All rights reserved.Zurich officeGlrnischstrasse 8 8002 Zurich,SwitzerlandTel.+41 44 22650 40zurichsimon-