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1、Spring 2024 Solar Industry UpdateDavid FeldmanJarett ZuboyKrysta Dummit,Solar Energy Technologies OfficeDana StrightMatthew HeineShayna Grossman,ORISEaFellowRobert MargolisMay 14,2024Photo by U.S.Department of Energya Oak Ridge Institute for Science and EducationNREL|2Global Solar Deployment1U.S.PV

2、Deployment2PV System Pricing3Global Manufacturing4Component Pricing5Market and Policy67U.S.PV ImportsAgendaNREL|3NREL|3Global Solar Deployment IEA reported that in 2023,407446 GWdc of PV was installed globally,bringing cumulative PV installs to 1.6 TWdc.China continues to dominate the global market,

3、representing 60%of 2023 installs,up 120%y/y.The rest of the world was up 30%y/y.The U.S.was the second-largest market in terms of cumulative and annual installations.Analysts project that cumulative global PV installations will reach 2 TWdc 5 TWdc by 2030 and 4 TWdc 15 TWdc by 2050.U.S.PV Deployment

4、In 2023,PV represented approximately 54%of new U.S.electric generation capacity,compared to 6%in 2010.Solar still represented only 11.2%of net summer capacity and 5.6%of annual generation in 2023.However,22 states generated more than 5%of their electricity from solar,with California leading the way

5、at 28.2%.EIA reported that the United States installed 26.3 GWac(32 GWdc)of PV in 2023,ending the year with 137.5 GWac of cumulative PV installations.SEIA,which has different definitions of“placed-in-service,”reported 40.3 GWdc of PV installed in 2023,186.5 GWdc cumulative.The United States installe

6、d approximately 26.0 GWh/8.8 GWac of energy storage onto the electric grid in 2023,up 34%y/y.PV System and Component PricingThe median system price of large-scale utility-owned PV systems in 2023 was$1.27/Wacrelatively flat since 2018.The median price for residential PV systems reported by EnergySag

7、e increased 6.3%y/y to$2.8/Wdcin-line with mid-2020 price levels.Global polysilicon spot prices fell 22%from mid-January($8.70/kg)to late April($6.76/kg),approaching the lowest nominal price seen over the past decade.The recent plunge in global module prices leveled off,staying around$0.11/Wdc in Q1

8、 2024.In Q4 2023,the average U.S.module price($0.31/Wdc)was down 5%q/q and down 22%y/y,but at a 140%premium over the global spot pricing.Global ManufacturingIn 2023,global PV shipments were approximately 564 GWan increase of 100%from 2022.In 2023,98%of PV shipments were mono c-Si technology,compared

9、 to 35%in 2015.N-type mono c-Si grew to 63%of global PV shipmentsup from 51%in 2022(and 5%in 2019).In 2023,the United States produced about 7 GW of PV modules.U.S.PV ImportsAccording to U.S.Census data,55.6 GWdc of modules and 3.7 GWdc of cells were imported in 2023,an increase of 87%y/y and 46%y/y,

10、respectively.In Q1 2024,PV module imports held relatively steady for the third straight quarter at 15.2 GWdc.Executive SummaryA list of acronyms and abbreviations is available at the end of the presentation.NREL|4AgendaGlobal Solar Deployment1U.S.PV Deployment2PV System Pricing3Global Manufacturing4

11、Component Pricing5Market and Policy67U.S.PV Imports IEA reported that in 2023,407446 GWdc of PV was installed globally,bringing cumulative PV installs to 1.6 TWdc.China continues to dominate the global market,representing 60%of 2023 installs,up 120%y/y.The rest of the world was up 30%y/y.The United

12、States was the second-largest market in terms of cumulative and annual installations.Analysts project that cumulative global PV installations will reach 2 TWdc 5 TWdc by 2030 and 4 TWdc 15 TWdc by 2050.NREL|5NREL|5Global Annual PV Capacity Additions by Country From 2014 to 2023,global PV capacity ad

13、ditions grew from 40 GWdc to between 407 GWdc and 446 GWdc.The spread in estimated global installations is due to uncertainty in Chinese reporting.In 2023,global PV installs increased 73%91%y/y.The total cumulative installed capacity for PV at the end of 2023 reached 1.6 TWdc.At least 29 countries i

14、nstalled more than 1 GWdc in 2023,and 19 countries have a cumulative capacity above 10 GWdc.China continues to dominate the global market,representing 60%of 2023 installs,up 120%y/y.The rest of the world was up 30%y/y.China was the last country to represent over half the global solar market,in 2017(

15、51%).Note:Chinas National Energy Administration reports values in Wac.Therefore,there is uncertainty in Wdc capacity due to differing assumptions on inverter loading ratio.The “upside”reflects a higher inverter loading ratio.Sources:IEA,Snapshot of Global PV Markets:2024;Trends in Photovoltaic Appli

16、cations 2023.0501001502002503003504004505002014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023PV Annual Installations(GWdc)Rest of WorldRest of EuropeGermanyUnited StatesIndiaJapanChinaNREL|6NREL|6Top PV MarketsIn 2023,several countries had very large growth years,with China,Germany,and Italy roughly

17、doubling 2022 installations.IEA reports that the large stockpile of PV modules increased further in 2023 to 150 GWdc.China has tried to absorb some of the overcapacity(thus the large installation year).However,the large increase in manufacturing capacity,the switch from PERC to TOPCon,and insufficie

18、nt demand have exacerbated the situation.Note:Chinas National Energy Administration reports values in Wac.Therefore,there is uncertainty in Wdc capacity due to differing assumptions on inverter loading ratio.The “upside”reflects a higher inverter loading ratio.Sources:IEA,Snapshot of Global PV Marke

19、ts:2024;Trends in Photovoltaic Applications 2023.66217095918238363530281651500100200300400500600700800Installations(GWdc)Cumulative PV Deployment,2023(1.6 TWdc)235.533.216.614.311.97.76.36.05.34.227.738.6050100150200250300Annual PV Deployment,2023(407 GWdc to 446 GWdc)China upsideNREL|7NREL|7Global

20、PV PenetrationThe United States,despite being a leading PV market,is below the global average and other leading markets in terms of PV generation as a percentage of total country electricity generation,with 6%.If California were a country,its PV contribution(28%)would be the highest.IEA estimates th

21、at in 2023,6%of global electricity generation came from PV.Source:IEA,Snapshot of Global PV Markets:2024.0%5%10%15%20%25%Percent of Annual Electricity GenerationNREL|8NREL|8Long-term Global ProjectionsNotes:P=projection.Colored bars represent base case projections for region/country-level estimates.

22、Error bars represent high and low global projections.Not all sources have data for all categories.EIA reports in GWac while BNEF and IEA report in GWdc.An ILR value of 1.25 was used to convert between GWac and GWdc.Sources:EIA,International Energy Outlook 2023;BNEF,New Energy Outlook 2023;IEA,World

23、Energy Outlook 2023EIAs Reference Case assumes current energy trends,existing laws and regulations,and select economic/technological changes.This is the most conservative estimate of those analyzed.EIA reference case projects over 5 TWdc of PV capacity by 2050 with the United States,China,and India

24、each having over 1 TWdc of cumulative capacity.BNEFs Economic Transition Scenario(ETS)is BNEFs baseline scenario of how the energy transition might evolve as a result of cost-based technological changes.BNEF ETS projects over 10 TWdc of PV capacity by 2050,with the U.S.,China,India,and Europe each h

25、aving over 1,000 GWdc of cumulative capacity.As of 2022,cumulative global PV capacity was about 1,200 GWdc.Analysts project that cumulative global PV installations will reach 2 TWdc 5 TWdc by 2030 and 4 TWdc 15 TWdc by 2050.Their results differ largely due to discrepancies in the projections of Chin

26、as future capacity.IEAs Stated Policies Scenario(STEPS)uses assumptions based on the latest policy settings,including energy,climate,and industrial policies.IEA STEPS projects over 12.5 GWdcof PV capacity by 2050,with the United States,Europe,China,and India each having over 1 TWdcof cumulative capa

27、city and China having over 6 TWdcof cumulative capacity.NREL|9NREL|9Chinese Generation Capacity Additions by SourceNote:Annual and cumulative solar values assume that Chinas National Energy Administration(NEA)reports distributed PV in direct-current terms and utility-scale PV in alternating-current

28、terms.NEA reported 120 GW of utility-scale PV and 96 GW of distributed PV for 2023.On this slide,ac/dc conversions assume a dc-to-ac ratio of 1.1 for distributed PV.We use IEA-reported total capacity for Wdc.Sources:China NEA(1/26/24,2/28/24,4/29/24);IEA,National Survey Report of PV Power Applicatio

29、ns in China,2021.In 2023,solar contributed 59%of new generation capacity in China(235 GWdc to 277 GWdc/207 GWac)and 20%of cumulative capacity(662 GWdc to 704 GWdc/585 GWac).The record for annual solar installed was broken for the third year in a row.In 2023,42%of new PV was distributed,58%was utilit

30、y scale.Wind and solar accounted for 80%of capacity installed in 2023,and together they have constituted the most capacity installed for 8 years running.Annual coal and gas additions rose 78%in 2023.In Q1 2024,China added 43.6 GWac of PV(21.9 GWac utility scale,21.6 GWac distributed).Renewable sourc

31、es continue to capture a larger share of Chinas growing electric capacity.In 2011,renewables made up 26%of 1.1 TWac of total capacity.In 2023,renewables made up 50%of 2.9 TWac of total capacity.15 34 51 42 29 47 52 82 207 968411112114212512512311119117818635301002003004002011 2012 2013 2014 2015 201

32、6 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Annual Capacity Additions(GWac)Solar acWindHydroOtherNuclearCoal and Gas41 75 126 168 197 244 296 378 585 1,063 1,147 1,258 1,379 1,521 1,652 1,777 1,900 2,011 2,200 2,373 2,545 2,895 05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5002011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2

33、020 2021 2022 2023Cumulative Capacity(GWac)Solar acWindHydroOtherNuclearCoal and GasNREL|10NREL|10Chinese Market UpdateNote:See slide 9 for installed capacity assumptions.Sources:BNEF,China Market Outlook 1H 2024:Renewables Rise in Headwinds,3/7/24;BNEF,Chinas New RPS Targets Wind and Solar Deployme

34、nt,9/15/23;China NEA(1/26/24,2/28/24);PVTech(04/22/24).China installed 120 GWac of utility-scale PV in 2023,a 275%increase from 32 GWac installed in 2022.Reasons for the surge included declining module prices and increasing construction of renewable energy“megabases”gigawatt-scale wind and solar pro

35、jects sited in remote areas.Provincial Renewable Portfolio Standard(RPS)targets were another driver.For most provinces,the target non-hydro electricity share was raised 1.2 percentage points for 2023 and 1.7 percentage points for 2024,which has spurred measures promoting wind and solar deployment in

36、 some provinces.For example,in 2023 Yunnan closed some of its RPS gap by increasing renewable energy compensation rates and facilitating land approval and interconnection for utility-scale projects.The 87 GWac of distributed PV installed in 2023 was 74%higher than the 50 GWac installed in 2022.Decli

37、ning PV equipment prices and high power prices drove demand.The rapid deployment has exposed potential constraints including grid-interconnection capacity and increasing curtailment.China deployed 20 GWac of energy storage in 2023,reaching a cumulative 31 GWac and achieving its 30-GWac goal 2 years

38、early.The growth has primarily been driven by provincial mandates.As of January 2024,26 provinces mandated storage with PV projects,with an average storage capacity requirement equivalent to 12%of the PV capacity.In Q1 2024,China installed 46 GWac of new PVa 36%increase from Q1 2023.NREL|11NREL|11Eu

39、ropean MarketSources:IEA,Snapshot of Global PV Markets:2024;Trends in Photovoltaic Applications 2023.;BNEF,1Q 2024 Global PV Market Outlook,2/19/24;EU Market Outlook for Solar Power 20232027-SolarPower EuropeIEA reports that the war in Ukraine and resulting reduced gas acquisitions increased the pri

40、ce of electricity,making PV more competitive.A large extent of growth in the EU residential sector stems from delayed 2022 projects.Slower growth in this sector is anticipated in 2024.UPV deployment declined in 2023 due to delayed auctions,higher grid fees,inflation,and permitting/grid-connection is

41、sues.Europes annual PV additions reached a record of nearly 61 GWdc in 2023,up 41%from 2022.In the EU,utility-scale PV made up 34%of new additions(down 6%from 2022),commercial and industrial PV made up 33%of new additions(up 4%from 2022),and residential PV made up 33%of new additions(up 2%from 2022)

42、.NREL|12NREL|12EU Manufacturing MarketIn the EU,polysilicon production decreased by 12%from 2022,cell production increased by 42%,module production increased by 59%,and inverter production increased by 14%.This year,REC Solar Norway shut down their operations.The only polysilicon manufacturer left i

43、n Europe is Wacker Chemie.They produce 60,000 MT/yr in Germany.Norwegian Crystals announced its bankruptcy in August 2023,leaving NorSun as the only ingot/wafer producer in Europe.NorSun temporarily suspended its operations in September 2023.Solar cell manufacturing in the EU has grown 0.6 GW from 2

44、022,with 7 active companies in this segment.There are 57 active module manufacturers in the EU.The EU recently adopted a ban on products made with forced labor(which may impact the EU solar supply chain by limiting imports from China).Member states will have to begin applying the regulation in 2027.

45、Sources:BNEF,1Q 2024 Global PV Market Outlook,2/19/24;EU Market Outlook for Solar Power 2023-2027,Solar Power Europe;About Us,RECOM Technologies,accessed 5/21/24;EU to support solar manufacturing in face of“very fragile situation”,PV Tech,3/4/24;European Parliament passes forced labour ban,PV Tech,4

46、/24/24.NREL|13NREL|13Brazil Market UpdateABSOLAR reported that Brazil installed around 12 GWac(17 GWdc)of PV this year(IEA reported 12 GWdc).This is more than Brazils entire cumulative capacity in 2020.Growth in deployment was driven by sub-5 MW solar systems,which are eligible for net-metering bene

47、fits.Small-scale solar faces headwinds from rising transmission tariffs(due to new 2022 net metering regulations),difficulty getting permits,competition with wholesale market,and import taxes on modules.In 2023,Brazil ended its import tax exemption for modules.The country now operates under a tariff

48、 rate quota(TRQ)system where the first 30 GW of imported modules are exempt and additional imports face tariffs.BNEF expects another 1719 GWdc of solar installations in 2024,with a possibility of a slowdown in the distributed sector due to the governments efforts to slow this market.Sources:BNEF,1Q

49、2024 Global PV Market Outlook,2/19/24;BNEF,Trend Newsletter,3/7/24;ABSOLAR-Brazilian Association of Photovoltaic Solar EnergyNREL|14NREL|14Indian Market UpdateSources:BNEF,1Q 2024 Global PV Market Outlook,2/19/24;BNEF,1H 2024 India Renewables Market Outlook,2/29/24;Mercom India Research,Q4&Annual 20

50、23 India Solar Market Update,12/23;Mercom Q1 2024 India Solar Market Update;Mercom(3/12/24);PV Magazine(2/15/24);IEA,Snapshot of Global PV Markets:2024;Trends in Photovoltaic Applications 2023.IEA reported that India added 16.6 GWdc of PV in 2023,down 11%from the record 18.6 GWdc installed in 2022.M

51、ost PV installs were centralized systems.BNEF reported that small-scale project deployment(mostly rooftop PV but also off-grid and agricultural PV)rose 35%from 2022 and made up about a third of new 2023 PV capacity.BNEF also reported that PV constituted 49%of total capacity added in 2023 and 17%of I

52、ndias cumulative capacity.BNEF reported that large project costs fell 27%between Q4 2022 and Q4 2023.Driven primarily by plummeting module prices,Q4 2023 saw Indias lowest-ever average project cost.Analysts expect the lower costs to spur increased deployment in 2024.At year end,105 GWac(140 GWdc)of

53、large projects were in the development pipeline.A new PV subsidy program may boost deployment of residential rooftop installations going forward.024681012141618202014201520162017201820192020202120222023Indias Annual PV Capacity Additions(GWdc)NREL|15NREL|15Indian Market Update U.S.trade policies,suc

54、h as the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act,favor Indian module imports.The U.S.market provides Indian manufacturers with higher profit margins compared with the Indian market.A Q4 2023 slowdown in exports may be linked to reduced U.S.demand and/or concerns from U.S.buyers about the quality of India

55、n modules.The bifacial share of exported modules rose.Mercom estimates Indias module/cell manufacturing capacity reached 64.5/5.8 GWdc in 2023,and Mercom projects 150+/75+GWdc by 2026far exceeding actual and projected domestic module deployment.PVTech estimates there was 29/5.4 GWdc of Indian module

56、/cell capacity at the end of 2023,producing a total of 12/1 GWdc of modules/cells in 2023.Indian module imports grew 41%,from 11.6 GWdc in 2022 to 16.3 GWdc in 2023.Most imports were from China as record-low prices made Chinese modules attractive despite a 40%tariff.Indias effort to balance domestic

57、 PV manufacturing with domestic deployment has produced a confusing array of trade barriers and exemptions,which remain in flux as of early 2024.00.511.522.533.544.520222023Module exports from India(GWdc)Exported elsewhereExported to the U.S.Sources:BNEF,1H 2024 India Renewables Market Outlook,2/29/

58、24;Mercom Clean Energy Insights(3/14/23,2/26/24);Mercom India Research,State of Solar PV Market in India 2024,Spring 2024;TaiyangNews(2/12/24);:PVTech Research.PV Manufacturing&Technology Quarterly Report-Release 32-February 2024.Indian Module Exports,20222023Indian module exports grew 230%,from 1.2

59、 GWdc in 2022 to 4.1 GWdc in 2023.About 97%of 2023 exports went to the United States.NREL|16NREL|16Global Off-Grid Solar MarketSource:Global Off-Grid Lighting Association,“Global Off-Grid Solar Market Report Semi-Annual Sales and Impact Data.”Global sales of solar energy kits reached their second hi

60、ghest level ever,though they fell from historical high sales in 2022.Most products were portable lanterns.However,there were also over 1 million solar home systems sold in 2023,and solar power appliances,such as fans,TVs,refrigerators,water pumps,and radios.An estimated 116 million people currently

61、benefit from improved access to energy through off-grid solar energy products.0123456789102011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Off-grid PV Product Shipped(millions of units)TotalROWIndiaRest of AfricaRest of East AfricaKenyaNREL|17NREL|17U.S.CSP Project Generation Performa

62、nce,20142023Source:EIA,Form 923.Over the past decade since the LPO-funded CSP plants came on-line,performance has generally been more consistent for the trough plants than those using tower technologies,particularly in 2023.Tonopah produced no electricity from March to July,and two of the three Ivan

63、pah towers produced no/little electricity for two to three months in the first half of 2023.Annual weather variation also caused some of the differences in annual production Absolute capacity factor is not necessarily the best metric for performance as plants can be designed and operated differently

64、.Tonopah now operates to sell power at night(though that would not explain producing no power during the sunniest part of the year).0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%Capacity FactorSolana(Trough+6hours storage)Genesis(Trough)Mojave(Trough)Ivanpah(Tower)Nevada Solar One(Trough)Tonopah(Tower+10 hoursstorage)SEGS

65、III-IX(Trough)NREL|18AgendaGlobal Solar Deployment1U.S.PV Deployment2PV System Pricing3Global Manufacturing4Component Pricing5Market and Policy67U.S.PV Imports In 2023,PV represented approximately 54%of new U.S.electric generation capacity,compared to 6%in 2010.In 2023,over 40 GWac of new installed

66、capacity was either from non-carbon emission sources or battery technologies3 GWac above the previous record level achieved in 2021.Solar still represented only 11.2%of net summer capacity and 5.6%of annual generation in 2023.However,22 states generated more than 5%of their electricity from solar,wi

67、th California leading the way at 28.2%.EIA reported that the United States installed 26.3 GWac(32 GWdc)of PV in 2023,ending the year with 137.5 GWac of cumulative PV installations.SEIA,which has different definitions of“placed-in-service,”reported 40.3 GWdc of PV installed in 2023 and 186.5 GWdc cum

68、ulative.The United States installed approximately 26.0 GWh/8.8 GWac of energy storage onto the electric grid in 2023,up 34%y/y.NREL|19NREL|1913%22.7%10%10%4.8%5.6%02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,00020142016201820202022Annual Generation(TWh)CoalNatural gasNuclearRenewablesHydroWindSolarOtherG

69、eothermalU.S.Generation,20142023Sources:U.S.Energy Information Administration(EIA),“Electricity Data Browser.”Accessed March 10,2024;and an Insight Climate News article(February 27,2024).In 2023,the United States generated 4,250 terawatt-hours(or 4.3 petawatt-hours)of electric power.Energy generatio

70、n from renewables continued its steady upward trend,as a result of increases in solar generation(and despite a drop in wind and hydro generation).Solar and wind generation together accounted for almost as much power as coal generation.Solar was on par with hydropower.The percentage of electricity ge

71、nerated by fossil fuels in the United States dropped from 67%in 2014 to 59%in 2023,while the percentage of electricity generated by renewable energy sources increased from 13%to 23%over the same period.In 2023,renewable energy facilities continued to produce more electricity than both nuclear and co

72、al sources,though utility-scale renewable energy generation fell y/y.Despite an increase in U.S.wind generation capacity,analysts attributed the drop in wind production to slow wind speeds in the mid-west in warm months.Hydropower production dropped due to low water levels caused by drought.NREL|20N

73、REL|202023 U.S.Generation and CapacitySources:EIA,“Electric Power Monthly”Tables 6.1,6.1A,February 2024,“Electricity Data Browser,”March 10,2024.Renewables are becoming an increasingly large part of the U.S.electric generation mix,representing 31%of capacity and 23%of generation in 2023.All non-carb

74、on energy sourcesincluding solar,wind,nuclear,hydropower,and geothermal-represented 39%of capacity and 41%of generation in 2023.Solar still represents a small but growing percentage of the U.S.electric generation mix.In 2023,solar represented 11.2%of net summer capacity and 5.6%of annual generation.

75、Capacity is not proportional to generation,as certain technologies(e.g.,natural gas)have lower capacity factors than others(e.g.,nuclear).Coal16%Natural gas42%Nuclear18%Hydro6%Wind10%UPV3.8%DPV1.7%CSP0.1%Geothermal0.4%Other1.9%2023 U.S.Generation(Total 4,252 TWh)Coal15%Natural gas(CC)24%Natural gas(

76、CT)11%Natural gas(Other)7%Nuclear8%Hydro6.5%Wind11.9%UPV7.3%DPV3.9%CSP0.1%Grid Batteries1.2%Distributed Batteries0%Geothermal0%Other5%2023 U.S.Generation Capacity(Total 1.2 TW)NREL|21NREL|2101020304050607080Capacity Additions(GWac)CoalHydroNatural GasNuclearPetroleumWindSolarBatteriesSolar at Histor

77、ic Level of Deployment2023 had the third highest level of new electricity generation on record,with solar,batteries,and wind leading the way.According to EIA,planned capacity in 2024 and 2025 would be the highest on record,though solar would still not exceed the 64 GWac of natural gas installed in 2

78、002.Sources:EIA.U.S installed capacity,Form 860.&Electric Power Monthly(March 2024).EIA,Energy Kids.Rapid coal&natural gas deployment 1960s1980sRapid hydro deployment 1910s1940sRapid nuclear deployment 1970s and 1980sRapid natural gas deployment 2000spresentRapid wind,solar,battery deployment 2000sp

79、resent1920:The FPC was established for licensing hydroelectric projects1921:Lakeside Power Plant in Wisconsin became the worlds first power plant to burn only pulverized coal.1930s:New Deal policies bring electricity to rural areas and regulate interstate electricity markets.1954:first nuclear plant

80、(Russia)starts generating electricity;Congress allows private ownership of nuclear reactors;Bell Labs invents first solar cell.1957:first U.S.nuclear plant1940s-60s:Dramatic increase in energy demand causes coal plants to be built.United States rapidly expands natural gas pipelines.NREL|22NREL|22New

81、 U.S.Capacity Additions,20142023Note:“Other”includes coal,geothermal,landfill gas,biomass,and petroleum.Sources:EIA,“Electric Power Monthly”Tables 6.1,6.2B,1.1,1.1A;Forms 860M&861M.April 2024.In 2023,PV represented approximately 53.5%of new U.S.electric generation capacity(37.5%UPV,16.0%DPV),compare

82、d to 6%in 2010.Wind represented 13%of added capacity and grid-scale batteries an additional 13%,for a total of 79%of capacity additions from those three technologies.Over 40 GWac of new installed capacity was either from non-carbon emission sources or battery technologies in 20233 GWac above the pre

83、vious record level achieved in 2021.2023 wind installations were half their record-level achieved in 2020,though still the third-leading technology installed.05101520253035404550U.S.Electric Capacity Additions(GWac)Natural gasOtherNuclearLand-based windGrid-scale batteriesNuclearDistributed PVUtilit

84、y-scale PVNREL|23NREL|23U.S.Generation Capacity Additions and Retirements by Source:20132023 and Planned 20242025Sources:EIA Form 860M/Preliminary Monthly Electric Generator Inventory(“Planned”and“Operating”)and EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook Table 7e,downloaded March 2024.EIA projects that the perce

85、ntage of U.S.electric capacity additions from solar will grow from 54%in 2023(31 GWac)to 63%in 2024(43 GWac)and 65%in 2025(42 GWac).Natural gas accounted for 18%of new capacity in 2023,though only 7%when subtracting retirements from additions.In 2024,there are projected to be more natural gas retire

86、ments than additions,rebounding slightly in 2025.2024 will mark the first time in a decade that simple-cycle,natural gas turbines additions will exceed combined-cycle capacity,due in part to natural gas switching from baseload generation to peak support because of the growing presence of renewables

87、on the grid.In the next two years,EIA projects that PV,storage,and wind will add 124 GWac of capacity in the United States,or 92%of additions.In contrast,EIA is projecting nearly 20 GW of retirements from coal,natural gas,and other fossil fuels in that time,or 89%of retirements.Since 2013,a nearly e

88、qual volume of coal has been retired as solar(UPV+DPV)has been added to the grid.Click here to interactively view these data on Tableau Public.NREL|24NREL|24U.S.Installation BreakdownAnnual:EIA(GWac)The United States installed 26.3 GWac of PV in 2023up 46%y/y.In 2023,utility-scale(18.4 GWac)and resi

89、dential(6.6 GWac)PV were up 34%and 27%,respectively,while C&I(1.3 GWac)PV was down 16%.Approximately 47%of U.S.PV capacity installed in 2023 was in Texas,Florida,and California.Despite a concentration of PV installations in the top three markets,diversification of growth continues across the United

90、States.34 states installed more than 100 MWac in 2023 and 16 states installed more than 500 MWac.Note:EIA reports values in Wac which is standard for utilities.The solar industry has traditionally reported in Wdc.Sources:EIA,“Electric Power Monthly,”forms EIA-023,EIA-826,and EIA-861(March 2023,April

91、 2022,February 2021,February 2019).Click here to interactively view these data on Tableau Public.2023 U.S.PV Installations by Region(26.3 GWac)Click here to interactively view these data on Tableau Public.NREL|25NREL|250510152025303540452010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 202

92、2 2023Annual PV Installed(GWdc)U.S.PV Installations by Market SegmentUtilityNonresidential PVResidential PVU.S.Installation BreakdownAnnual:SEIA(GWdc)SEIA reports that the United States installed 40.3 GWdc*of PV in 2023(186.5 GWdc cumulative)an annual increase of 76%y/y.30.2 GWdc UPV(+114%y/y),3.2 G

93、Wdc non-residential(+17%y/y),and 6.9 GWdc residential(+14%y/y).Q4 2023 installations totaled 19.6 GWdc.In 2023,56%of installed capacity occurred in California,Texas,and Florida.However,37 states and Puerto Rico,installed more than 100 MW.Texas produced more electricity from solar than coal in 2023.T

94、he reasons for overall 2023 growth varied by market segment:A huge surge in residential California installations in the first half of the year to take advantage of the expiring NEM 2.0 offset lower installation in H2 as well as declines in other states due to higher interest rates.Installations of l

95、arger,non-residential California projects continued to grow in H2 2023 from NEM 2.0 due to the longer development cycle.Community solar projects continued to face interconnection delays,but also expanded into new markets.Utility-scale PV installations grew in large part due to stabilization of modul

96、e supply chains and the subsequent installations of delayed projects.*Wood Mackenzie/SEIA differ from EIA in what is considered an“operational”project.Sources:Wood Mackenzie/SEIA:U.S.Solar Market Insight:Q2 2024.Unlike the previous slide,these values are in GWdcnot GWac.NREL|26NREL|26U.S.Installatio

97、n BreakdownQuarterly:EIA(GWac)In Q4 2023,the United Stated installed over 10 GWac of solar capacitya first.According to EIA data,40%of 2023 installed U.S.solar capacity occurred in Q4relatively consistent with previous years,though much greater in absolute terms.Utility-scale PV represented 83%of Q4

98、 2023 solar installationsits highest percentage ever.Residential installs fell in the second half of 2023the first time since 2017.Note:EIA reports values in Wac,which is standard for utilities.The solar industry has traditionally reported in Wdc.See the next slide for values reported in Wdc.Sources

99、:EIA,“Electric Power Monthly,”forms EIA-023,EIA-826,and EIA-861(November 2023,February 2022,February 2019).13.21.53.9Click here to interactively view these data on Tableau Public.NREL|27NREL|27U.S.Installation BreakdownQuarterly:SEIA(GWdc)Wood Mackenzie/SEIA reports a record 19.6 GWdc of PV installa

100、tions in Q4 2023 and 11.8 GWdc in Q1 2024an increase of 159%and 79%y/y,respectively.In Q1 2024,utility-scale installations were up 135%while residential PV was down 25%y/y.Nonresidential was flat.Sources:Wood Mackenzie/SEIA:U.S.Solar Market Insight:Q2 2024.Unlike the previous slide,these values are

101、in GWdcnot GWac.0510152025Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12019202020212022202324Quarterly PV Installed(GWdc)U.S.PV Installations by Market SegmentUtilityNonresidential PVResidential PVFlorida,Texas,and California represented 57%of Q1 installations,despite their resident

102、ial PV installations being down 21%51%.California16%Texas29%Southwest12%Florida8%Southeast11%Northeast9%Midwest9%Other7%Q1 2024 U.S.PV Installations by Region(11.8 GWdc)NREL|28NREL|28Solar Generation as a Percentageof Total Generation,2023In 2023,22 states generated more than 5%of their electricity

103、from solar,with California leading the way at 28.2%.Five states(California,Nevada,Massachusetts,Vermont,and Hawaii)generated more than 15%of their electricity using solar.Three other states generated more than 10%of their electricity using solar:Utah,Rhode Island,Arizona.Nationally,5.6%of electricit

104、y was generated from solar in 2023up from 4.8%in 2022.The roles of utility-scale and distributed solar vary by state.Southern and Western states rely more on utility-scale solar,while northern states and Hawaii rely more on distributed solar.Click here to interactively view these data on Tableau Pub

105、lic.NREL|29NREL|29Solar Generation as a Percentageof Total Generation,20142023 In 2014,solar produced approximately 0.7%of total U.S.electric generation.By 2023,solar grew to about 5.6%of electric generation.3.8%from utility-scale PV(UPV),a nearly 10-fold increase 1.8%from distributed PV(DPV),a 7-fo

106、ld increase 0.1%from concentrating solar power(CSP)2023 is the first year that solar has accounted for more than 5%of U.S.electricity generation.Note:EIA monthly data for 2023 are not final.Additionally,smaller utilities report information to EIA on a yearly basis.Therefore,a certain amount of solar

107、 data has not yet been reported.Source:U.S.Energy Information Administration,“Electricity Data Browser.”Accessed March 12,2024.Click here to interactively view these data on Tableau Public.NREL|30NREL|30Monthly U.S.Solar Generation,20142023 Total peak monthly U.S.solar generation increased by a fact

108、or of 8.8 from 2014 to 2023.U.S.electric generation in December 2023(during the low seasonal period of electric generation)was above the peak solar production in 2019(brown dashed line).In May 2023,solar produced 7.5%of all U.S.electricity production,and solar produced over 5%of all U.S.electricity

109、production from March through October of 2023.Utility-scale solar electricity production(including PV and CSP technologies)dropped by 51%from its summer peak(July 2023)to its winter low(December 2023),and DPV systems dropped 42%.The drop in production would likely be greater without continued solar

110、deployment throughout the year.Note:EIA monthly data for 2023 are not final.Additionally,smaller utilities report information to EIA on a yearly basis.Therefore,a certain amount of solar data have not yet been reported.U.S.Total”includes DPV generation.Sources:U.S.Energy Information Administration,M

111、onthly and annual electric power operations by state,sector,and energy source.Accessed March 12,2024.Click here to interactively view these data on Tableau Public.NREL|31NREL|31Solar Generation as a Percentageof Total Generation,20142023 From 2014 to 2023,leading solar deployment states greatly incr

112、eased solar electricity penetration.Rhode Island and Maine(purple and brown respectively)have seen substantial growth since 2019.In the past 5 years,5 states(MA,VT,UT,AZ,and RI)shifted over 10%of their electricity generation to solar sources.Some of the increase in Massachusetts percentage is due to

113、 a significant reduction in total electricity production in the state.The United States,as a whole,has a much lower level(5.6%)of solar generation,but it has still increased solar generation by about 723%since 2014.Note:EIA monthly data for 2023 are not final.Additionally,smaller utilities report in

114、formation to EIA on a yearly basis,and therefore a certain amount of solar data has not yet been reported.Net generation includes DPV generation.Net generation does not include imports and exports to and from each state.Therefore,the percentage of solar consumed in each state may vary from its perce

115、ntage of net generation.Source:U.S.Energy Information Administration(EIA),Monthly and annual electric power operations by state,sector,and energy source.Accessed March 12,2024.Click here to interactively view these data on Tableau Public.NREL|32NREL|3235,455 18,476 10,352 7,150 5,552 4,802 4,572 4,4

116、36 4,172 3,954 3,446 3,232 2,371 2,152 1,945 1,806 1,617 1,541 1,511 18,989 05,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000CaliforniaTexasFloridaNorth CarolinaArizonaNevadaNew YorkGeorgiaVirginiaMassachusettsNew JerseyColoradoIllinoisUtahSouth CarolinaWisconsinMarylandMinnesotaNew MexicoOthe

117、rCumulative PV Capacity Installed as of Dec.2023(MWac)ResidentialC&IUtility-scale4,996 4,714 2,594 1,121 1,068 861 828 791 737 730 701 680 562 558 541 518 342 298 263 3,416 01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,000TexasCaliforniaFloridaVirginiaColoradoWisconsinOhioNevadaArizonaPennsylvaniaIndianaNorth Carolin

118、aGeorgiaNew YorkArkansasIllinoisNew MexicoMaineSouth CarolinaOtherPV Capacity Installed in 2023(MWac)ResidentialC&IUtility-scaleU.S.Installation Breakdownby StateNote:EIA monthly data for 2023 are not final.Additionally,smaller utilities report information to EIA on a yearly basis.Therefore,a certai

119、n amount of solar data have not yet been reported.Arizonas C&I installations in 2023 were net negative.Sources:EIA,“Electric Power Monthly,”forms EIA-023,EIA-826,and EIA-861(February 2024,February 2023).At the end of 2023,there were 137.5 GWac of solar PV systems in the United States,of which 89.8 G

120、Wac were utility-scale PV,32.9 GWac were residential PV,and 14.8 GWac were C&I PV.In 2023,5 states installed 1 GWac(Texas,California,Florida,Virginia,and Colorado),and 7 installed 1 GWdc(+Ohio,Wisconsin).In comparison,29 countries installed 1 GWdc in 2023,according to IEA data,as noted on slide 5.NR

121、EL|33NREL|33Cumulative U.S.Installation Breakdown by StateNote:EIA monthly data for 2023 are not final.Additionally,smaller utilities report information to EIA on a yearly basis.Therefore,a certain amount of solar data have not yet been reported.Sources:EIA,“Electric Power Monthly,”forms EIA-023,EIA

122、-826,and EIA-861(February 2024,February 2023).At the end of 2023,the United States surpassed half of states(27)having 1 GWac installed cumulatively,with Indiana,Michigan,Ohio,Wisconsin,Arkansas,and Pennsylvania joining the ranks since 2022.The tally rises to 29 states,when looking at those which hav

123、e achieved the 1 GWdc distinction,with Maine,Rhode Island,Pennsylvania,Arkansas,and Ohio just crossing that threshold in 2023.0 200 MWac200 MWac 1 GWac1 GWac 2 GWac2 GWac 10 GWac10 GWac 35 GWac 35 GWac1 GWdc cumulative in 20231 GWac cumulative in 2023CumulativeNREL|34NREL|34Cumulative U.S.PV Capacit

124、y Per Capita(2023)Note:EIA monthly data for 2023 are not final.Additionally,smaller utilities report information to EIA on a yearly basis.Therefore,a certain amount of solar data have not yet been reported.Sources:EIA,“Electric Power Monthly,”forms EIA-023,EIA-826,and EIA-861(February 2024);United S

125、tates Census Bureau(2024).Dave to update02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,600NevadaCaliforniaHawaiiRhode IslandArizonaNew MexicoNorth CarolinaMaineUtahTexasMassachusettsColoradoVermontVirginiaFloridaUS TotalGeorgiaNew JerseySouth CarolinaConnecticutArkansasOregonWisconsinPuerto RicoIdahoMinnesotaMarylan

126、dDCNew YorkIndianaDelawareMontanaIllinoisWyomingNewIowaMississippiOhioAlabamaPennsylvaniaLouisianaMichiganMissouriSouth DakotaTennesseeWashingtonKansasKentuckyOklahomaNebraskaAlaskaWest VirginiaCumulative PV Capacity Per Capita(Wac/person)Some large states that ranked high in total cumulative capaci

127、ty at the end of 2023,such as Texas(#2),Florida(#3)and New York(#6),are relatively lower in rankings when looking on a watts per capita basis.Texas drops to#10,Florida to#15,and New York to#28.Conversely,New Mexico,Nevada,and Hawaii,which ranked 22nd,25th and 30th in cumulative PV capacity,are 6th,1

128、st and 3rd on a PV watts per capita basis.NREL|35NREL|35U.S.PV Installation BreakdownAnnual:EIA(GWac)At the end of 2023,there were 137.5 GWac of cumulative PV installations.EIA reports that at the end of 2023,65%of U.S.installed PV capacity was from utility-scale PV systems.Despite representing only

129、 24%of installed U.S.PV capacity at the end of 2023,97%of PV systemsover 4.4 million systemswere residential applications.In 2023,the United States installed 893,000 PV systems,of which 880,000 were residential,13,000 were C&I,and 399 were utility-scale.Sources:EIA,“Electric Power Monthly,”forms EIA

130、-023,EIA-826,EIA-860,and EIA-861(April 2023).Residential32.9 C&I14.9 Utility-scale89.8 Cumulative U.S.PV Installations as of December 2023(137.5 GWac)Residential4,642,957 C&I140,400 Utility-scale6,197 Cumulative U.S.PV Installations as of December 2023(4.8 million systems)NREL|36NREL|36U.S.Residenti

131、al PV Penetration Since 2005 when Congress passed the investment tax credit,the number of annually installed residential PV systems has grown by approximately 36%per year,or over 250X.At the end of 2023,SEIA estimates there were approximately 4.7 million residential PV systems in the United States.S

132、till,only 3.3%of households own or lease a PV system(or 5.3%of households living in single-family detached structures).However,solar penetration varies by location.Hawaii,California,and Arizona have residential systems on an estimated 35%,23%,and 14%of households,respectively,living in single-family

133、 detached structures.Sources:Res.PV Installations:2000-2009,IREC 2010 Solar Market Trends Report;2010-2022,SEIA/Wood Mackenzie Solar Market Insight 2023 Year-in-Review;U.S.Households from U.S.Census Bureau.0500,0001,000,0001,500,0002,000,0002,500,0003,000,0003,500,0004,000,0004,500,0005,000,0000.0%0

134、.6%1.2%1.8%2.4%3.0%3.6%4.2%4.8%5.4%6.0%2005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023Cum.#of Res.PV Systems%of households with PVResidential PV systems (right axis)U.S.households(left axis)Single-family detached houses(left axis)NREL|37NREL|37U.S.TransmissionInterconnec

135、tion QueuesLBNL reports that substantial solar and storage capacity have been proposed in most regions of the United States.Over 12,000 large-scale projects representing 1.57 TWac of generator capacity(1.48 TW of which is zero-carbon and 1.09 TW is solar)and 1.03 TWac of storage are seeking intercon

136、nection.Annual interconnection requests have increased dramaticallyin terms of both number and capacitysince 2013;over 900 GWac was added in 2023 alone.Over half of solar and storage capacity in the queue is from hybrid projects.Only 13%of proposed solar projects(and 10%of solar+battery projects)ent

137、ering queues from 2000 to 2018 have reached commercial operations(compared to 19%for all technologies).The average time spent in queues has increased over time.The typical projects completed in 2022-2023 took 5 years from interconnection request to commercial operation.This compares to 3 years in 20

138、15 and less than 2 years in 2008.Proposed Interconnections by TechnologyInterconnection Requests by Year*Hybrid storage capacity is estimated using storage:generator ratios from projects that provide separate capacity data Source:LBNL,Queued Up:Characteristics of Power Plants Seeking Transmission In

139、terconnection,2024.NREL|38NREL|38EIA Reports Fewer Delays EIA reports that in 2023 developers delayed 19%of planned solar capacitya reduction from the high of 23%in 2022,though still above historical averages.According to EIA data,the percentage of total solar planned capacity with a postponed opera

140、tional date increased from 2021 to 2022,peaking in December 2022 at 33%.The rapid rise in delays between mid-2021 and late 2022 corresponded with constrained importation of PV modules into the United States,related to issues including policies that targeted Chinas alleged use of forced labor(WRO on

141、Hoshine,UFLPA),the AD/CVD circumvention investigation,and COVID-related supply chain disruptions.The impact of such issues eased by 2023,corresponding with increased module imports and reduced delays.Source:EIA“Today In Energy”(May 8,2024)NREL|39FERC issued final rule for Order#1920,two years in the

142、 making,which establishes a new long-term planning process to better anticipate and address regional grid needs and to encourage cooperation with states.Requires transmission providers to plan ahead at least 20 years,update regional transmission needs at least every 5 years,and determine how to pay

143、for them.The level of transmission investment has not been adequate to handle large changes to the grid,with transmission providers more focused on short-term needs.Order gives transmission providers opportunity to select cheaper,more efficient,long-term regional transmission facilities.Requires tra

144、nsmission providers to consider several alternative transmission technologies(e.g.,dynamic line ratings,advanced power flow control devices,advanced conductors,and transmission switching).Transmission projects which require multiple-state approval have had difficulties due to varying goals of,and be

145、nefits to,states(e.g.,different levels of use of projects,different renewable energy goals).Order permits but does not require transmission providers to use a State Agreement process,providing states a role in the process.FERC also issued Order#1977,which gives FERC authority to issue permits to con

146、struct a national corridor if states deny siting application(so long as they have made good faith effort to engage with landowners early and developed environmental justice plans).States are encouraged to work together because if they do not FERC and transmission owners can move ahead without state

147、permission.Analysts believe that more efforts are needed to properly build out transmission infrastructure,including low-cost access to loans(e.g.,loan guarantees,revolving loan funds).The final rule also does not establish renewable energy zones by transmission planners(as discussed in the NOPR)or

148、mandate grid-enhancing technologies.The order will also likely be challenged in court.Sources:Holland&Knight(05/15/24);Morgan Lewis(05/14/24);NYTimes(05/13/24);UtilityDive(05/15/24)FERC Issues Long-term Transmission Planning Rules NREL|40NREL|4005001,0001,5002,0002,5002015201620172018201920202021202

149、22023Community Solar Installed Capacity by Year of Interconnection(MWac)FLNYMAMNTXILARCOMDGAOther States+DCCommunity Solar Cumulative community solar capacity topped 7.2 GWacin 2023 with 9 states adding a total of 1.04 GWac of new interconnected capacity.The majority of new installations in 2023 wer

150、e in Florida(447 MWac)and New York(404 MWac).Florida Power&Lights SolarTogether program is the largest community solar program in the United States with 26 current utility-owned projects on-line and 18 planned projects(1341 MWac of planned community solar).New Yorks additions dropped by 7%from 2022.

151、Wood Mackenzie projects that market saturation and interconnection issues will challenge community solar projects long-term market viability.Wood Mackenzie projects 12 GW of growth through 2025 and an approximate doubling of cumulative community solar capacity over the next five years.Note:Community

152、 solar refers to any solar project or purchasing program,within a geographic area,in which the benefits flow to multiple customers such as individuals,businesses,nonprofits,and other groups.In most cases,customers benefit from energy generated by solar panels at an off-site array.Source:Wood Mackenz

153、ie,Community Solar Outlook H1 2024(February 2024).NREL Sharing the Sun Project List,accessed 4/22/24.SolarTogether,Florida Power&Light,accessed 5/7/24.+46%NREL|41NREL|41NREL-Tracked LMI Community Solar NREL tracked 253 MWac of LMI community solar installations,116 MWac of which was installed in 2023

154、.75%the projects were located in New York,New Jersey,and Florida.There are another 555 MWac of planned LMI community solar projects in the dataset,most of which are located in New York.The IRS announced in that in 2023 and 2024 it intends to allocate a combined 800 MWdc per year of Low-Income Commun

155、ities Bonus Credits to Low-Income Benefit Projects(which in general meet the definition of a LMI Community Solar project)These annual allocations go through at least 2032.Note:Community solar refers to any solar project or purchasing program,within a geographic area,in which the benefits flow to mul

156、tiple customers such as individuals,businesses,nonprofits,and other groups.In most cases,customers benefit from energy generated by solar panels at an off-site array.Note:Complete LMI community solar projects are energized projects,and pending projects are awarded or under construction.Projects that

157、 are wait-listed,under review,or withdrawn are not considered to be pending.Unless documented from the subscription and procurement reports like Colorado and District of Columbia,the remaining LMI capacity refers to a conservative calculation based on the community solar LMI carve-out rate by progra

158、m.Source:Wood Mackenzie,Community Solar Outlook H1 2024(February 2024).NREL Sharing the Sun Project List,accessed 4/22/24.Sharing the Sun:Community Solar Deployment and Subscriptions(as of June 2023),NREL.SolarTogether,Florida Power&Light,accessed 5/7/24.0100200300400500600LMI Community Solar Instal

159、led Capacity by Year of Interconnection(MWac)FLNYMANJDCILORCOMDOther StatesNREL|42NREL|42U.S.Off-Site CorporateSolar PPAsU.S.corporate solar contracts were down 14.5%in 2023 y/y,though the contracted capacity was 3.3 times larger than it was 5 years ago.The United States represented approximately 49

160、%of the global off-site corporate solar market in 2023,followed by Spain(9%)and India(6%).67%of the 2023 U.S.solar contracts were in the form of virtual PPAs,with the remainder coming mostly from green tariffs(12%).In addition to the 14.1 GW of U.S.solar PPAs in 2023,companies signed 3.2 GW of U.S.w

161、ind PPAs.Through 2023,the leading five U.S.offsite corporate solar offtakers were Amazon,Meta,Microsoft,Google,and Verizon,with a collective 40 GW of PPAs.In 2023 alone,Amazon signed 4.0 GW and Meta signed 2.8 GW of off-site U.S.solar PPAs.In May 2024,Microsoft signed the largest ever corporate PPA

162、for more than 10.5 GW of renewable energy(largely solar)in the United States and Europe.Sources:BloombergNEF,“Corporate PPA Deal Tracker,”as of April 29,2024.Microsoft announces largest-ever corporate procurement of renewable energy,PV Magazine,5/1/24.NREL|43NREL|43Bifacial Module Surge in Large Dis

163、tributed PV Systems The share of bifacial modules grew rapidly in California and New Yorks large distributed PV systems between 2020 and 2023.From 4%of capacity in 2020 to 29%of capacity in 2023 for systems 100500 kWdc.6%to 43%for systems 500 kWdc to 1 MWdc.6%to 53%for systems 15 MWdc.6%to 79%for sy

164、stems 5+MWdc.The bifacial module share remained at 5%or less for systems 2.5100 kWdc.Ground-mount and flat-roof nonresidential PV installations can provide bifacial energy gain,but typical sloped residential rooftop installations do not provide bifacial gain.Installers may use bifacial modules to av

165、oid tariff-related module costs.Bifacial modules were exempted from Section 201 tariffs starting in June 2019.These distributed generation data do not include utility-scale PV projects,which are the primary application for bifacial modules.Note:Bifacial modules are defined as having the term“bifacia

166、l”in the description field in the California Energy Commissions PV Module List.Sources:CA NEM database(3/31/24);Solar Electric Programs Reported by NYSERDA(3/31/24);Solar Power World(11/16/21);DOE,Solar Futures Study.Increasing distributed PV system sizeNREL|44NREL|4405101520253020162017201820192020

167、202120222023Energy Storage Installed(GWh)U.S.Energy Storage Installations by Market SegmentGrid-Scale(GWh)CCI(GWh)Residential(GWh)012345678910Energy Storage Installed(GW)Grid-Scale(GW)CCI(GW)Residential(GW)U.S.Energy Storage Installationsby Market Segment(Energy Storage Association)California repres

168、ented over half of all 2023 battery installed capacity,with the top nine states representing approximately 97%of the market.7 states installed more than 800 MWh of storage in 2023.The United States installed approximately 26.0 GWh(8.8 GWac)of energy storage onto the electric grid in 2023,+34%(+30%)y

169、/y,as a result of high levels of residential deployment and grid-scale deployment.Half of all 2023 grid-scale deployment occurred in Q4.At the end of 2023,Wood Mackenzie reported 57.7 GWh(20.5 GWac)of U.S.energy storage.Note:Grid-scale refers to all projects deployed on the utility side of the meter

170、,regardless of size or ownership.CCI refers to community-scale,commercial and industrial.Source:Wood Mackenzie Power&Renewables and Energy Storage Association,U.S.Energy Storage Monitor:Q1 2024.NREL|45NREL|45U.S.Energy Storage Installationsby Market Segment(EIA)At the end of 2023,California represen

171、ted 52%of cumulative installed battery storage capacity,followed by Texas(22%).The top ten markets represented 95%of installed energy storage capacity.EIA reports that the United States installed approximately 7.2 GWac of energy storage onto the electric grid in 2023up 57%y/y as a result of high lev

172、els of deployment in all sectors.EIA reported a 23%increase in utility-scale,29%increase for C&I,and 30%increase for residential storage installations in 2023,y/y.Note:EIA reports no storage from Puerto Rico.Sources:EIA Form 860M.0.3 0.4 0.8 3.8 4.6 7.2 012345678201820192020202120222023Energy Storag

173、e Installed(GW)U.S.Energy Storage Installations by Market SegmentResidentialC&IUtility-scaleNREL|46NREL|46U.S.Energy Storage Installations by Market SegmentNote:“Grid-scale”refers to all projects deployed on the utility side of the meter,regardless of size or ownership;“CCI”refers to community-scale

174、,commercial,and industrial.Source:Wood Mackenzie Power&Renewables and Energy Storage Association,U.S.Energy Storage Monitor:Q1 2024.California represented over half of all 2023 battery installed capacity,with the top nine states representing approximately 97%of the market.7 states installed more tha

175、n 800 MWh of storage in 2023.California led in all market sectors in 2023,though Texas and Arizona installed large levels of grid-scale storage,New York and Massachusetts installed large levels of CCI,and Puerto Rico far outpaced every state,except California,in residential installs.Puerto Ricos Sol

176、ar Access Program opened in February.It will provide up to 30,000 low-income households with free solar and storage.Hawaii began its successor program to its Battery Bonus program;the incentives are significantly below previous levels.02468101214Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

177、Q3 Q420192020202120222023Energy Storage Installed(GWh)U.S.Energy Storage Installations by Market SegmentGrid-Scale(GWh)CCI(GWh)Residential(GWh)0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.5Energy Storage Installed(GW)Grid-Scale(GW)CCI(GW)Residential(GW)The United States installed approximately 12.4 GWh(4.2 GWac)of

178、energy storage onto the electric grid in Q4 2023its largest quarter on record by more than 6 GWh(2 GWac)as a result of record growth in the grid-scale and residential sectors.Long-duration storage is beginning to take off;Form Energy has a contract in California for a 5 MW/500 MWh system and in Wash

179、ington and Minnesota for 10 MW/1,000 MWh iron-air battery pilot systems.Dominion is also partnering with Enervenue for a 10-hour nickel-hydrogen chemistry non-lithium-ion storage system.NREL|47NREL|4705001,0001,5002,0002,5003,000Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4201920202021

180、20222023Energy Storage Installed(MW)U.S.Energy Storage Installations by Market SegmentResidentialC&IUtility-scaleU.S.Energy Storage Installationsby Market Segment(EIA)EIA reports that the United States installed approximately 2.5 GWac of energy storage onto the electric grid in Q4 of 2023up 107%y/y,

181、but down 11%q/q.Sources:EIA Form 860M,EIA Form 861M.California represented 45%of battery installations in 2023,followed by Texas(23%)and Arizona(12%).8 states installed more than 100 MW of storage in 2023.NREL|48NREL|48Residential1,488 MWC&I539 MWUtility-scale15,830 MWCumulative U.S.BESS Installatio

182、ns as of December 2023(17.9 GWac/44 GWh)(1,671 MWh)(42,000 MWh)U.S.BESS Installation BreakdownAnnual:EIA(GWac)At the end of 2023,EIA reports that there were 17.9 GWac(46 GWh)of cumulative U.S.battery energy storage installations.EIA reports that at the end of 2023,88%of U.S.installed battery energy

183、storage capacity was from utility-scale PV systems.Despite representing only 9%of installed U.S.battery energy storage capacity at the end of 2023,98%of battery systemsover 215,000 systemswere residential applications.Virtually all distributed BESS and most utility-scale BESS are co-located with PV.

184、In 2023,EIA reports that the U.S.installed 67,700 battery energy storage systems,of which 66,700 were residential,650 were C&I,and 122 were utility-scale.Sources:EIA,“Electric Power Monthly,”forms EIA-023,EIA-826,EIA-860,and EIA-861(April 2024).(2,021 MWh)Residential215,005 C&I3,528 Utility-scale573

185、 Cumulative U.S.BESS Installations as of December 2023(219,000 systems)NREL|49NREL|49Community Opposition:PV Developer PerspectivesSource:Wind and Solar Developer Survey,Lawrence Berkeley National Lab,Jan 2024.Opposition to solar and wind has become more prevalent and expensive to deal with than it

186、was 5 years ago.This trend is expected to continue.On average,community opposition is expected to delay solar projects by 11 months.Those surveyed identified the primary causes of community opposition for solar to be visual concerns,loss of agricultural land,community character,and residential prope

187、rty values.61%of solar developers agreed that if they expect substantial opposition in a given community,they would be unlikely to develop there.Developers also agreed that predicting opposition is difficult.LBNL conducted a survey of 123 utility-scale wind and solar project developers.Local ordinan

188、ces or zoning,grid interconnection,and community opposition are three leading causes of project cancellations for both wind and solar.Supply chain issues also are a key reason for solar project delays.75%of those surveyed believe that increased community engagement results in fewer project cancellat

189、ions.NREL|50NREL|50Community Opposition:Quantitative Policy TrendsSources:Inside how wind and solar energy are being restricted across the US,USA Today,2/4/24.How we tallied local bans,limits on renewable energy nationwide,USA Today,2/4/24.How misinformation about solar power hinders the fight again

190、st climate change,NPR,2/18/23.Inside the right-wing conspiracy to thwart the clean energy transition,Canary Media,3/15/24.2023 was the first time that the number of counties restricting utility-scale solar projects(61)almost equaled the number of counties adding their first solar farm(62).Impediment

191、s to clean energy deployment include:Outright bansMoratoriums(counties buying time to write new zoning laws)Height and setback regulations(especially problematic for wind)Noise limitsLimits on the amount of agricultural land that can be used for solarLocal governments refusing to sign agreements wit

192、h wind/solar developersLarge,organized opposition groups(such as Citizens for Responsible Solar and Committee for a Constructive Tomorrow)have initiated local campaigns against solar and have spread misleading claims to bolster opposition.NREL|51NREL|51Community Opposition:Counter-OppositionDespite

193、vocal opposition groups and restrictive local policies,polls show that most people,regardless of political affiliation,are comfortable living near a wind or solar farm.75%of those polled by the Washington Post/UMD said they were comfortable living near a field of solar panels.Some state governments

194、have laws that can override county-level clean energy bans(dark yellow on the map).Two states enacted override laws in 2023(red on the map):Illinois enacted a new law blocking any outright ban of wind or solar projects.The law also sets state siting parameters and prohibits counties from adopting mo

195、re restrictive limits.Michigan passed a clean energy package that gives the state public service commission final say over approval for large-scale wind and solar projects.Sources:July 13-23,2023,Washington Post-University of Maryland Climate Poll,The Washington Post,8/7/23.Some Midwest states look

196、to counter local opposition to wind and solar farm projects,KSUT Public Radio,3/14/24.Opposition to Renewable Energy Facilities in the United States,Columbia Law School Sabin Center for Climate Change Law,June 2024.NREL|52AgendaGlobal Solar Deployment1U.S.PV Deployment2PV System Pricing3Global Manuf

197、acturing4Component Pricing5Market and Policy67U.S.PV Imports The median system price of large-scale utility-owned PV systems in 2023 was$1.27/Wacrelatively flat since 2018.The median price for residential PV systems reported by EnergySage increased 6.3%y/y to$2.8/Wdcin-line with mid-2020 price level

198、s.From H1 2023 to H1 2024,the median reported distributed PV system price across Arizona,California,Massachusetts,and New York:Decreased 2%to$4.17/Wdc for systems 2.5 to 10 kW Decreased 8%to$3.46/Wdc for systems 10 to 100 kW Increased 4%to$2.61/Wdc for systems 100 to 500 kW Decreased 2%to$2.23/Wdc f

199、or systems 500 kW to 1 MW Increased 4%to$1.65/Wdc for systems 1 to 5 MW Decreased 8%to$1.14/Wdc for systems 5 MW+.NREL|53NREL|53Utility-Owned PV Pricing(5 MW)Note:Values represent a select dataset of utility-scale PV systems owned by 25 regulated utilities for 233 projects totaling 11.8 GWac install

200、ed from 2010 to 2023.Sources:FERC Form 1 filings from the following utilities:Alabama Power,Allete,Arizona Public Service,Avangrid,Dominion,DTE,Duke Energy,El Paso Electric,Entergy,Florida Power and Light,Georgia Power,Indiana Michigan Power,Kentucky Utilities,MidAmerican,Nevada Power,Pacific Gas an

201、d Electric,Public Service of New Mexico,Southern California Edison,Tampa Electric,Tucson Electric,United Illuminating,Union Electric,UNS Electric,Virginia Electric,and Wisconsin Public Service.The median system price of large-scale,utility-owned PV systems in 2023 was$1.27/Wacrelatively flat since 2

202、018.The lowest and highest reported prices in 2023 were$1.05/Wac and$2.35/Wac,respectively.Based on 2022 AC and DC system sizing for this dataset,the$1.27/Wac would translate into$0.99/Wdc.$0$1$2$3$4$5$6$7$8$9$102009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Installed Cost

203、($/Wac)Project Completion YearMedian(AC)Capacity-weighted Average(AC)Individual Projects(AC)Median(DC)Capacity-weighted Average(DC)Individual Projects(DC)NREL|54NREL|54Utility-Owned PV Pricing(5 MW)Project prices in the Southeast were,on average,lower than the rest of the country,with a capacity-wei

204、ghted average of$1.2/Wac in 2023,compared to$1.8/Wac in the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic and$1.6/Wac in the Southwest.10 MW100 MW$0.0$0.5$1.0$1.5$2.0$2.5$3.0$3.5$4.0$4.5$5.0Jul-09Apr-12Dec-14Sep-17Jun-20Mar-23Installed Cost($/Wac)Project Completion YearSouthwestSoutheastMidwestMid-AtlanticSizingNote:Val

205、ues represent a select data set of utility-scale PV systems owned by 25 regulated utilities for 233 projects totaling 11.8 GWac installed from 2010 to 2023.Sources:FERC Form 1 filings from the from the following utilities:Alabama Power,Allete,Arizona Public Service,Avangrid,Dominion,DTE,Duke Energy,

206、El Paso Electric,Entergy,Florida Power and Light,Georgia Power,Indiana Michigan Power,Kentucky Utilities,MidAmerican,Nevada Power,Pacific Gas and Electric,Public Service of New Mexico,Southern California Edison,Tampa Electric,Tucson Electric,United Illuminating,Union Electric,UNS Electric,Virginia E

207、lectric,and Wisconsin Public Service.NREL|55NREL|55$0$500$1,000$1,500$2,000$2,500$3,000May-16Sep-17Feb-19Jun-20Oct-21Mar-23Jul-24Project Completion YearInstalled Cost($/kWac)1-2 hrs2-3 hrs3-4 hrsUtility-Owned BESS Pricing(5 MW)There is a wide variety of reported pricing for utility-owned battery sto

208、rage systems,even accounting for differences in the hours of storage.In general,the price of 34 hour battery systems fell from$500600/kWh in 20182019 to$400$500/kWh in 20222023.10 MW100 MWNote:Values represent a select dataset of utility-scale PV systems owned by 8 regulated utilities for 21 project

209、s totaling 1.2 GWac installed from 2010 to 2023.Sources:FERC Form 1 filings from the from the following utilities:Arizona Public Service,Duke Energy-Indiana,Florida Power and Light,Nevada Power,Pacific Gas&Electric,Tampa Electric,Virginia Electric,and Wisconsin Public Service.$0$100$200$300$400$500$

210、600$700$800$900May-16Sep-17Feb-19Jun-20Oct-21Mar-23Jul-24Project Completion YearInstalled Cost($/kWh)1-2 hrs2-3 hrs3-4 hrs10 MW100 MWNREL|56NREL|56U.S.Solar PPA Pricing(LevelTen)Source:LevelTen,PPA Price Index.LevelTen reports that the U.S.utility-scale PV PPA prices fell approximately 1%q/q,though

211、is still up 5%y/y.LevelTen reports that the fall in natural gas prices along with the oversupply of PV panels put downward pressure on PPA prices,allowing developers to reduce pricing.However,they report that lower pricing may be short-term due to continued high inflation rates,a delay in interest r

212、ate cuts,and potentially more stringent regulations on U.S.imports.LevelTen reported that California ISO was the lowest priced market in Q1 2024,due to several new projects under 50 MW.PJM continued to be one of the more expensive markets,due to higher-priced RECs,interconnection challenges,and ongo

213、ing reform in the capacity market.$0$10$20$30$40$50$60$70$80Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1201920202021202220232425th Percentile PPA Offer Price($/MWh)National average acrossmarketsNREL|57NREL|57Distributed PV System Pricing from Select StatesFrom H1 2023 to H1 2024(pa

214、rtial),the median reported standalone(no energy storage)distributed PV system pricein 2023(inflation-adjusted)dollarsacross Arizona,California,Massachusetts,and New York:Decreased 2%to$4.17/Wdc for systems 2.5 to 10 kW Decreased 8%to$3.46/Wdc for systems 10 to 100 kW Increased 4%to$2.61/Wdc for syst

215、ems 100 to 500 kW Decreased 2%to$2.23/Wdc for systems 500 kW to 1 MW Increased 4%to$1.65/Wdc for systems 1 to 5 MW Decreased 8%to$1.14/Wdc for systems 5 MW+.Adjusting for inflation reveals the generally decreasing distributed PV system price trends in real dollars over the past several years of econ

216、omic volatility.2024 MW data YTD:Arizona(45.5),California(442),Massachusetts(10.3),New York(137).Note:System prices above$10/W and below$0.75/W were removed from the dataset.The volatility in median system price among the largest systems is due to the relatively small number of systems deployed each

217、 year.Sources:Arizona Goes Solar(2/1/24);California Distributed Generation(3/31/24);Massachusetts Lists of Qualified Generation Units(2/22/2024);Solar Electric Programs Reported by NYSERDA(4/1/24).Click here to interactively view these data on Tableau Public.NREL|58NREL|58Distributed PV System Prici

218、ng from Select States,20232023 MW data:Arizona(297),California(2,480),Massachusetts(158),New York(748).Note:System prices above$10/W and below$0.75/W were removed from the dataset.Sources:Arizona Goes Solar(2/1/24);California Distributed Generation(3/31/24);Massachusetts Lists of Qualified Generatio

219、n Units(2/22/2024);Solar Electric Programs Reported by NYSERDA(4/1/24).Lines represent medians.Bars represent 80th and 20th percentiles.In addition to price differences based on system size,there is variation in the price of standalone(no energy storage)distributed PV systems between states and with

220、in individual markets.Dollar-per-watt prices generally decrease as system size increases.For systems of 2.510 kW,median price changes varied between 2022 and 2023:-5%in Arizona,-5%in California,-1%in Massachusetts,-1%in New York.Click here to interactively view these data on Tableau Public.NREL|59NR

221、EL|59Residential System Price Reported by EnergySageNote:Price based on winning quoted price.Source:EnergySage,Solar Market place Intel Report H1 2023 H2 2023.The median price for residential PV systems reported by EnergySage fell 1.8%y/yin-line with mid-2020 price levels.Some of the price decrease

222、may be explained by having the largest average system size on record11.3 kWdc allowing project to benefit from economies of scale.Residential system price varied by state.In H2 2023,the median price of a residential system in Indiana was 51%higher than the median price of a residential system in Flo

223、rida.Part of the price disparity between states may be due to differences in average system size(14.3 kW in Florida versus 12 kW in Indiana),though other factors also play a role.EnergySage reported that the most popular loan(with a 25-year term and a 3.99%interest rate)cost 47%higher than the cash

224、value of the PV system.$2.35$2.35$2.55$2.70$2.71$2.75$2.80$2.90$3.10$3.25$3.55$0.0$0.5$1.0$1.5$2.0$2.5$3.0$3.5$4.0FLTXNVCANCOHUSGACONYINPrice by State,H2 2023($/Wdc)3.803.743.653.503.353.183.103.063.002.932.892.852.752.672.682.772.852.902.80$0$1$2$3$4$5H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1

225、 H2 H1 H22014201520162017201820192020202120222023Median Gross Costs($/W)Price over timeNREL|60NREL|60$0.0$1.0$2.0$3.0$4.0$5.0$6.0$7.0201820192020202120222023201820192020202120222023SunrunSunPowerInstalled Cost(2023 USD/Wdc)InstallationSalesGeneral&administrativeNet valueSunrun and SunPower Cost and

226、Value,20182023Sources:Corporate filings.After falling in 2019,the prices of residential systems installed by national integrators Sunrun and SunPoweradjusted for inflationrose or stayed relatively flat.Recent increases in installation costs are due in part to increasing battery attachment.Increases

227、in sales costs also contributed to higher prices.General and administrative costs exhibited a generally decreasing trend across companies.Mostly systems leasesbars represent subscriber value including the net present value of contracted cash flows,tax credits,and other benefits,including an assumed

228、contract extensionMostly system salesbars represent system costs including a gross marginNREL|61NREL|61Large Residential InstallerCost and Value,Q1 2024Sources:Corporate filings.Large residential installer Sunrun reported a system value change of+15%y/y and+4%q/q in Q1 2024.Factors reported as suppo

229、rting higher system value and/or costs(for Sunrun and Sunnova*):Increasing electricity demand and retail rates High interest rates Increasing battery attachment rates(batteries add cost but can yield higher margins)Implementation of virtual power plant programsFactors reported as supporting lower PV

230、 system costs and/or higher margins:Investment Tax Credit adders Declining equipment prices Increased operating efficiency Increased use of SolarAPP+to reduce time and cost associated with permitting and interconnection*SunPower results for Q1 2024 were not available as of May 2024.$2.84$3.01$3.42$3

231、.43$3.63$1.29$1.10$1.06$1.15$1.33$0.17$0.15$0.15$0.21$0.241.61.61.41.731.570%10%20%30%40%50%60%$0.0$1.0$2.0$3.0$4.0$5.0$6.0$7.0$8.0Q1 23Q2 23Q3 23Q4 23Q1 24SunrunBattery Attachment RateInstalled Cost($/Wdc)InstallationSalesG&ANet Value or Gross MarginBattery Attachment RateMostly systems leasesbars

232、represent subscriber value including the net present value of contracted cash flows,tax credits,and other benefits,including an assumed contract extensionNREL|62NREL|62Residential PV+Storage Pricing in CaliforniaThe data are filtered to PV system sizes of 10 kWdc or smaller.Source:California Distrib

233、uted Generation(3/31/24).In 2023,residential PV-plus-storage systems in California had a median system price of$2,988/kWh,or$5,990/kWac($5,501/kWdc)comparable to 2022 prices when adjusted for inflation.Most of these systems offer 23 hours of storage.Units represent total system price divided by the

234、capacity of the battery(kWh)or the capacity of the PV system(kW).Lines represent medians.Bars represent 80th and 20th percentiles.Click here to interactively view these data on Tableau Public.NREL|63NREL|63Residential Storage Price Reported by EnergySageThe median price for residential energy storag

235、e reported by EnergySage fell 5.5%y/y.This is the first reported decrease in the median price of energy storage since EnergySage started reporting in 2020.EnergySage attributed the drop in price to a 19%decrease in quoted storage prices in California,where there has been a 45%storage attachment rate

236、 since NEM 3.0 went into effect.Nationally,25%of systems sold on the EnergySage platform in H2 2023 included a battery,compared to 10%in H1 2023.Residential storage system price varied by state.In H2 2023,the median price of a residential storage system in Illinois and Massachusetts were 36%higher t

237、han the median price of a residential storage system in California and Texas.In the EnergySage dataset,the median cost of a battery in the top ten states ranged from$11,000 to$17,000.Note:Price based on winning quoted price.Source:EnergySage,Solar Market place Intel Report H1 2023 H2 2023.$0$200$400

238、$600$800$1,000$1,200$1,400$1,600CATXAZFLNCUSNYGAPAILMAMedian Gross Costs($/kWh)Price by state,H2 2023$1,000$1,050$1,100$1,150$1,200$1,250$1,300$1,350$1,400H2H1H2H1H2H1H22020202120222023Median Gross Costs($/kWh)Price over timeNREL|64AgendaGlobal Solar Deployment1U.S.PV Deployment2PV System Pricing3Gl

239、obal Manufacturing4Component Pricing5Market and Policy67U.S.PV Imports In 2023,global PV shipments were approximately 564 GWan increase of 100%from 2022.In 2023,98%of PV shipments were mono c-Si technology,compared to 35%in 2015.N-type mono c-Si grew to 63%up from 51%in 2022(and 5%in 2019).In 2023,t

240、he average efficiency of modules installed in the United States was approximately 20.7%for c-Si and 18.6%for CdTe.In 2023,the United States produced about 7.2 GW of PV modules.Since IRAs passage,over 70 GW of manufacturing capacity has been added across the solar supply chain(from facilities announc

241、ed pre-and post-IRA),including more than 25 GW of new module capacity.NREL|65NREL|65Global Annual PV Shipmentsby Region*SPV Market Research reported that 2023 global PV shipments were approximately 564 GWan increase of 100%from 2022.88%of the increase came from China,with the remainder mostly coming

242、 from Southeast Asia,but also India and the United States.From 2004 to 2023:The U.S.-manufactured percentage of global PV shipments declined from about 13%to 0.9%.The Chinese-manufactured share of global PV shipments grew from 1%to 80%.Together the Malaysian-,Vietnamese-,and South Thai-manufactured

243、percentage of global PV shipments went from 0%to 17%.*Note:excludes inventory sales and outsourcingSource:Paula Mints.Photovoltaic Manufacturer Capacity,Shipments,Price&Revenues 2023/2024.SPV Market Research.Report SPV-Supply12.April 2024.0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%200420052006200720082009201020112012201

244、320142015201620172018201920202021202220230100200300400500600Percent of ShipmentsPV Module Shipments(GW)JapanEUU.S.Rest of AsiaVietnamMalaysiaTaiwanChinaU.S.ShareNREL|66NREL|66Global Annual PV Shipmentsby Technology*In 2023,98%of PV shipments were mono c-Si technology,compared to 35%in 2015.N-type mo

245、no c-Si grew to 63%up from 52%in 2022(and 5%in 2019).TopCon was the leading cell type in 2023,followed by Mono P PERC,Mono N PERC,and HJT.*Notes:excludes inventory sales and outsourcingSource:Paula Mints.Photovoltaic Manufacturer Capacity,Shipments,Price&Revenues 2022/2023.SPV Market Research.Report

246、 SPV-Supply12.April 2024.Global Annual PV Shipments by TechnologyPERC(P Mono)34%TOPCon(N Mono)52%HJT(NMono)3%Back Contact2%PERC(N Mono)7%CdTe2%Other*0%0%20%40%60%80%100%2014201520162017201820192020202120222023%of global PV shipments by technologyMulti c-SiMono c-Si(n-type)Mono c-Si(p-type)CdTeCIGS/C

247、IS*includes a-Si,CIS/CIGS,TOPCon(P Mono),and Multi PERC.NREL|67NREL|67Global Leading PV Manufacturers by Shipments Ranking2017GWdc2022GWdc2023GWdc1JA Solar6.5 Tongwei38.1 Tongwei65.52Canadian Solar5.4 JA Solar36.2 Jinko Solar60.23Zhongli Talesun5.0 Aiko30.7 LONGi58.44Jinko Solar4.9 LONGi29.2 Trina S

248、olar55.95Trina Solar4.8 Jinko Solar23.9 JA Solar51.26LONGi4.5 Canadian Solar16.8 Aiko Solar36.87Hanwha Q Cells4.2 Trina Solar14.5 Canadian Solar30.78Tongwei3.8 SolarSpace11.6 Astroenergy19.59Motech3.2 Zhongli Talesun9.8 Risen18.510Aiko3.1 First Solar9.1 Runergy17.0Total Above45.5220.0413.7Total Ship

249、ped93.9283.1564.0From 2017 to 2023,shipments from the top 10 PV manufacturers grew from 46 GW to 414 GW,with some companies shipping more than 60 GW annually.Approximately half of 2023 shipments came from the top five companies.*Notes:excludes inventory sales and outsourcingSource:Paula Mints.Photov

250、oltaic Manufacturer Capacity,Shipments,Price&Revenues 2022/2023.SPV Market Research.Report SPV-Supply12.April 2024.NREL|68NREL|68PV Module Efficiency Improvements From 2010 to 2023,the weighted average efficiency of installed modules increased:From 14.8%to 20.7%for crystalline-silicon technologies(i

251、n California and New York).From 11.0%to 18.6%for cadmium telluride(CdTe)(in the United States).Efficiency increases occurred through incremental improvements in given technologies as well as changes in technology market share.For example,in the mid-2010s,the share of higher-efficiency monocrystallin

252、e-silicon modules overtook the share of lower-efficiency multicrystalline-silicon modules,contributing to the continual rise of average crystalline-silicon module efficiency.Sources:CdTe:First Solar Investor Relations,average module efficiency produced.c-Si:California Distributed Generation(3/31/24)

253、;Solar Electric Programs Reported by NYSERDA(3/31/24).Click here to interactively view these data on Tableau Public.NREL|69NREL|69Silicon Module Market Share and Efficiency Projections Projections from the International Technology Roadmap for Photovoltaics(ITRPV)show n-type and tandem module technol

254、ogies replacing p-type passivated emitter and rear contact(PERC)technology globally over the next decade.TOPCon grows most rapidly,peaking at 62%of market share in 2026.Interdigitated back contact(IBC)and silicon heterojunction(SHJ)combined reach a 20%share in 2026,surpassing PERC.Silicon-based tand

255、em cells enter the market in 2028 and reach a 10%share in 2034.The projected technology transition is much faster in the 2024 ITRPV than in the 2023 ITRPV,e.g.,PERC still has 50%market share in 2026 in the older projection vs.18%in the newer.Module efficiencies are projected to rise for all technolo

256、gies.Tandem efficiency grows fastest,gaining 3 percentage points between 2028 and 2034 and reaching 29.9%.TOPCon,SHJ,and IBC all gain 2 percentage points between 2023 and 2034,reaching 23.8%,24.4%,and 24.7%,respectively.Source:International Technology Roadmap for Photovoltaics(ITRPV),15th Edition,Ke

257、y Findings and Selected Report Presentation,March 2024.20%22%24%26%28%30%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%202320242025202620272028202920302031203220332034Module EfficiencyGlobal Market SharePERC(p-type)shareTOPCon(n-type)shareSHJ(n-type)shareIBC(p-and n-type)shareTandem(Si-based)sharePERC(p-type)mod

258、ule eff.TOPCon(n-type)module eff.SHJ(n-type)module eff.IBC(n-type)module eff.Tandem module eff.TandemIBCSHJTOPConPERCNREL|70NREL|70Increased PV Module and System Lifetimes The expected lifetimes of PV modules and systems increased dramatically over the past several decades.Typical module performance

259、 warranties increased from 1 year in 1977 to 2530 years in 2019.Module performance warranties guarantee a percentage of original power remaining(typically 80%90%)after a specified number of years.Average lifetimes for utility-scale PV systems expected by U.S.solar industry professionals increased fr

260、om 21.5 years in 2007 to 32.5 years in 2019.Systems are now generally expected to outlast module performance warranties by at least several years.Typical module performance warranties are derived from product specifications as analyzed by two separate research groups(Jordan et al.2022,Peters et al.2

261、021);the literature averages represent the averages of values from those two sources for each given year,while the higher values between the two sources are the maximums and the lower values the minimums.Expected utility-scale project lifetimes are derived from a survey of solar industry professiona

262、ls and documents,resulting in 19 data points(LBNL 2020).Sources:Jordan et al.,“Photovoltaics module reliability for the terawatt age,”Progress in Energy,2022;Peters et al.,“The value of stability in photovoltaics,”Joule,2021;LBNL,Benchmarking Utility-Scale PV Operational Expenses and Project Lifetim

263、es:Results from a Survey of U.S.Solar Industry Professionals,2020.NREL|71NREL|71Silicon Module Warranty and Degradation Projections Projections from the ITRPV show improvements in expected crystalline-silicon module reliability over the next decade.Performance warranties rise from 25 years in 2023 t

264、o 30 years in 2026.Initial degradation after the first year of module operation falls from 2.0%in 2023 to 1.0%in 2026.Annual degradation during the module warranty period declines slightly from 0.45%in 2023 to 0.38%in 2034.Source:International Technology Roadmap for Photovoltaics(ITRPV),15th Edition

265、,Key Findings and Selected Report Presentation,March 2024.0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%222324252627282930312023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034DegradationWarranty(years)Performance warrantyFirst-year degradationAnnual degradation during performance warrantyNREL|72NREL|72-10%10%30%5

266、0%70%90%201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320132014201520162017201820192020202120222023201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320132014201520162017201820192020202120222023PolysiliconWaferCells/Module

267、sInvertersIntegratorsYieldcoMedian Gross Margin of Surveyed CompaniesGross MarginAcross Supply ChainSources:Company figures from public filings and .Error bars represent high and low values of surveyed companies.Companies surveyed are Polysilicon:GCL Poly,REC Silicon,Wacker Chemie,Ferroglobe,Xinte,D

268、aqo;Wafers:ReneSola,Wafer Works Corp,SAS,Danen Technology Group,Green Energy Technology Inc;Zhonghuan,Hoyuan Green Energy Co.,Ltd.;Cells/Modules:First Solar,JA Solar,LONGi,Tongwei,Trina Solar,Canadian Solar,Risen,Aiko,Jinko Solar,DMEGC;Inverters:SolarEdge,Enphase,SMA Solar,Advanced Energy Industries

269、;Integrators:Real Goods Solar,SolarCity,Vivint Solar,Sunrun,SunPower,Sunworks,Emeren,Isun,SPI,Enlight Renewable Energy,Sunnova;IPP/Yieldco:Brookfield Renewable Partners,Algonquin Power&Utilities Corp,Clearwater Energy,Nextera Energy Partners,Northland Power,Pattern Energy,Terraform Power,TransAlta R

270、enewables.In 2023,gross margins contracted for polysilicon and wafer producers and kept fairly even for other parts of the PV supply chain,despite falling prices.Many companies have vertically integrated to hedge against major price changes.NREL|73NREL|73-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%201320142015201

271、620172018201920202021202220232013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320132014201520162017201820192020202120222023201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320132014201520162017201820192020202120222023PolysiliconWaferCells/ModulesInvertersIntegratorsYi

272、eldcoMedian Operating Margin of Surveyed CompaniesOperating MarginAcross Supply Chain In 2023,solar companies,on average,maintained operational profitability,with the exception of integrators.However,financing costs are in addition to operational activities and so companies may need higher margins t

273、o attract new investors into the space.Sources:Company figures from public filings and .Error bars represent high and low values of surveyed companies.Companies surveyed are Polysilicon:GCL Poly,REC Silicon,Wacker Chemie,Ferroglobe,Xinte,Daqo;Wafers:ReneSola,Wafer Works Corp,SAS,Danen Technology Gro

274、up,Green Energy Technology Inc,Zhonghuan,Hoyuan Green Energy Co.,Ltd.;Cells/Modules:First Solar,JA Solar,LONGi,Tongwei,Trina Solar,Canadian Solar,Risen,Aiko,Jinko Solar,DMEGC;Inverters:SolarEdge,Enphase,SMA Solar,Advanced Energy Industries;Integrators:Real Goods Solar,SolarCity,Vivint Solar,Sunrun,S

275、unPower,Sunworks,Emeren,Isun,SPI,Enlight Renewable Energy,Sunnova;IPP/Yieldco:Brookfield Renewable Partners,Algonquin Power&Utilities Corp,Clearwater Energy,Nextera Energy Partners,Northland Power,Pattern Energy,Terraform Power,TransAlta Renewables.NREL|74NREL|74PV Manufacturers Margins PV manufactu

276、rers,on average,experienced their third straight quarter of margin declines in Q1 2024,as falling prices and softer than expected demand cut into profits.Despite the declines,most large manufacturers have remained profitable through Q1 2024.First Solars gross margin remained above 40%,and its operat

277、ing margin remained above 30%for the third straight quarter.Lines represent the median,with error bars representing 80th and 20th percentiles for the following companies in Q4 2023:Canadian Solar,First Solar,JA Solar,Jinko Solar,LONGi,Maxeon,Motech Industries,REC Silicon,Renesola,Risen,Shanghai Aiko

278、,Shanghai Aerospace,Tongwei,Trina Solar,and United Renewable Energy.Note:Gross margin=revenue minus cost of goods sold(i.e.,the money a company retains after incurring the direct costs associated with producing the goods or services it sells);operating margin=gross margin minus overhead and operatin

279、g expenses(i.e.,the money a company retains before taxes and financing expenses).Sources:Company figures based on public filings and .-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q12019202020212022202324Marginsgross marginoperating marginNREL|75NREL|75U.S.PV ManufacturingThe

280、 Inflation Reduction Act(IRA)provides incentives to produce domestic polysilicon,wafers,cells,and modules.PVTech reports that at the end of 2023 PV modules and polysilicon were the only products in production.The U.S.produced approximately 7.2 GW of PV modules(4.4 GW CdTe,2.7 GW c-Si)in 2023,up 44%y

281、/y.Most of that increase came from CdTe production.PV production is up 9X since 2018.In addition to IRA,manufacturers have attributed the increase in production to the reduction in the corporate tax rate in 2017,the imposition of the Section 201 tariffs in 2018,the AD/CVD anti-circumvention case in

282、2021,as well as other supply chain disruptions to imported PV modules.Polysilicon for PV increased 5%in 2023 compared to a 2%increase for semiconductor use.Source:PVTech Research.PV Manufacturing&Technology Quarterly Report-Release 32,February 2024.01020304050600.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.020142

283、01520162017201820192020202120222023Annual Production(thousands MT)Annual Production(GW)Wafersc-Si Cellsc-Si ModulesThin-film ModulesPolysilicon(PV)Polysilicon(semi)NREL|76NREL|76U.S.Solar&Storage Investments Through 2023 U.S.solar&storage investments hit records in 2023:Solar manufacturing:$5.1 bill

284、ion(+470%from 2022)Battery(vehicle and stationary)manufacturing:$33.9 billion(+240%)Large-scale solar deployment:$35.4 billion(+45%)Large-scale storage deployment:$17.0 billion(+71%)Distributed electricity and storage deployment:$21.6 billion(+18%)Solar and storage investments announced in 2023 were

285、 also large,although some were below levels announced in 2022:Solar manufacturing:$12.5 billion(+210%from 2022)Battery(vehicle and stationary)manufacturing:$39.8 billion(-42%)Large-scale solar deployment:$44.8 billion(-4%)Large-scale storage deployment:$34.6 billion(+50%)According to the analyst rep

286、ort,investments in large-scale solar,storage,and wind*deployment must accelerate to reduce emissions as projected under the Inflation Reduction Act.*Wind deployment investments declined each year from 2021 to 2023.05101520253035Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q42

287、01820192020202120222023Investment(billion 2022 USD)U.S.Solar and Storage InvestmentsSolar ManufacturingSolar Large-Scale DeploymentBattery ManufacturingStorage Large-Scale DeploymentDistributed Electricity and Storage DeploymentInflation Reduction ActSolarStorageDERsInfrastructure Investment and Job

288、s ActSources:Rhodium Group&MIT Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research,Clean Investment Monitor:Q4 2023 Update,2/24;Clean Investment in 2023:Assessing Progress in Electricity and Transport,2/24.Domestic Manufacturing GrowthSources:U.S.Census Bureau USA Trade Online and internal DOE track

289、ing of public announcements.*Not all announcements include facility locations,job,operating capacity,or investment numbers.Since IRAs passage,over 70 GW of manufacturing capacity has been added across the solar supply chain(from facilities announced pre-and post-IRA),including more than 25 GW of new

290、 module capacity.*Several large facilities have become operational in the last year:Qcells:Module expansions in Georgia are online,bringing total nameplate capacity to 8.4 GW.First Solar:Module expansion in Ohio is online,bringing total nameplate capacity to 6.3 GW.Canadian Solar:A 5 GW module facil

291、ity in Texas has begun shipping modules to customers.Illuminate USA(LONGi/Invenergy):A 5 GW module facility in Ohio has produced panels for testing.REC Silicon:Re-start of 6 GW of polysilicon production in Washington was successful.Nextracker,Array Technologies,and GameChange Solar have all signific

292、antly expanded domestic production of trackers/tracker components.Click here to interactively view a map of active solar manufacturers.Domestic Manufacturing AnnouncementsSources:U.S.Census Bureau USA Trade Online and internal DOE tracking of public announcements.*Not all announcements include facil

293、ity locations,job,operating capacity,or investment numbers.Along with openings,there has also been recent news of cancellations including CubicPV scrapping their wafer plans,REC Silicon stopping production of polysilicon in MT,and Enphase closing its facility in WI.Despite the headwinds noted by the

294、se companies(including surging construction costs,high energy prices,and collapsing solar component costs),recent announcements continue to span the different supply chain steps,including:PV modules:Boviet Solar(2 GW),Energate(0.5 GW),Imperial Star Solar(1.5 GW),Phono Solar(1 GW),Solar Depot,SolarLi

295、nk(2 GW),and Toenergy(0.5 GW).PV cells:Boway Alloy(2 GW TOPCon)Inverters:EnteligentWafers:NexWafe(6 GW)Solar Glass:Solarcycle(5.5 GW)Trackers:GameChange(11 GW),BCI Steel(4 GW)Other components:CorningSince IRAs passage(taking into account the cancellations),over 300 GW of manufacturing capacity has b

296、een announced across the solar supply chain,representing more than 29,000 potential jobs and more than$15 billion in announced investments across 97 new facilities or expansions.*Click here to interactively view a map of manufacturing announcements.NREL|79AgendaGlobal Solar Deployment1U.S.PV Deploym

297、ent2PV System Pricing3Global Manufacturing4Market and Policy5Component Pricing67U.S.PV Imports Global polysilicon spot prices fell 22%from mid-January($8.70/kg)to late April($6.76/kg),approaching the lowest nominal price seen over the past decade.The recent plunge in global module prices leveled off

298、,staying around$0.11/Wdc in Q1 2024.In Q4 2023,the average U.S.module price($0.31/Wdc)was down 5%q/q and down 22%y/y,but at a 140%premium over the global spot price for monofacial monocrystalline silicon modules.NREL|80NREL|80PV Value Chain Global Spot PricingSources:BloombergNEF,Solar Supply Chain

299、Index(4/2/24);PV Magazine(3/29/24).Global polysilicon spot prices fell 22%from mid-January($8.70/kg)to late April($6.76/kg),approaching the lowest nominal price seen over the past decade.Global polysilicon production continued to rise,mostly due to production in China.According to the China Silicon

300、Industry Association,China supplied enough polysilicon production in March 2024 to produce 85 GWdc of modules(equivalent to 1 TWdc/year).During the same period,global prices decreased for wafers(18%)and cells(8%).Reversing a historical trend,n-type wafers sold at a discount to p-type wafers on a per

301、-piece basis.The premium for TOPCon cells over PERC was$0.01/W,and Chinese cell manufacturers are increasingly transitioning to TOPCon production.The recent plunge in global module prices leveled off,staying around$0.11/Wdc.Strong European demand anticipated in Q2 2024 may be helping to stabilize pr

302、ices.$0$5$10$15$20$25$30$35$40$45$0.00$0.05$0.10$0.15$0.20$0.25$0.30Jan-20Apr-20Jul-20Oct-20Jan-21Apr-21Jul-21Oct-21Jan-22Apr-22Jul-22Oct-22Jan-23Apr-23Jul-23Oct-23Jan-24Apr-24Average Polysilicon Spot Price($/kg)Average Wafer,Cell,and Module Spot Price($/Wdc)Cells,mono($/Wdc)Monofacial modules,mono(

303、$/Wdc)Bifacial modules,mono($/Wdc)Wafers,mono M10($/Wdc)Polysilicon($/kg)Monofacial modulesCellsWafersBifacial modulesPolysilicon(right axis)NREL|81NREL|81Module Prices:Global Versus United StatesSource:BloombergNEF,Solar Supply Chain Index(4/2/24);EIA,Monthly Solar Photovoltaic Module Shipments Rep

304、ort(4/30/24);Wood Mackenzie&SEIA,US Solar Market Insight:2023 Year in Review(3/24).In Q4 2023,the average U.S.module price($0.31/Wdc)was down 5%q/q and down 22%y/y,but at a 140%premium over the global spot price for monofacial monocrystalline silicon modules.The price difference between U.S.modules

305、and global modules increased every quarter in 2023,reaching$0.18/Wdc in Q4.Global module prices plummeted in 2023.The world-leading module price premium in the U.S.has been maintained by tariffs on Chinese modules as well as module detainment under the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act(UFLPA).Analy

306、sts report that the recent reductions in U.S.PV prices have been caused in part by shrinking UFLPA detainment periods and increased module supply due to a surge in imports before the antidumping and countervailing duty(AD/CVD)waiver expires in June 2024.$0.00$0.05$0.10$0.15$0.20$0.25$0.30$0.35$0.40$

307、0.45Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q42020202120222023PV Module Price($/Wdc)U.S.average module valueGlobal spot price,monofacial monocrystalline modulesNREL|82NREL|82$0.00$0.05$0.10$0.15$0.20$0.25$0.30$0.35$0.40$0.45Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1202020212022202324Cal

308、culated U.S.Module Nominal PriceImported Module Value/WattEffective 201 Tariff RateImported Cell Value/Watt$0.20$0.25$0.30$0.35$0.40$0.45$0.50$0.55JANMARMAYJULSEPNOVJANMARMAYJULSEPNOVJANMARMAYJULSEPNOVJANMAR2021202220232024c-Si Module Price(Mar 2024 US$/W)Modules Price by CountryMalaysiaVietnamThail

309、andCambodiaSouth KoreaTotalCalculated U.S.Module PricingThese module price declines were observed across all countries of import.However,prices declined most steeply for modules from South Korea.Current prices are still well within historical ranges,even when adjusted for inflation.Note:The tariff r

310、ate was adjusted by the capacity subject to the tariffs.Manual corrections were made to three values due to suspected data entry errors for HTS code 8541430010:Cambodia(February 2022),Malaysia(June 2020),and Vietnam(July 2019).Several GW of imports from India entered under the HTS code for thin-film

311、 modules in 2022/2023,but are believed to be c-Si based on news reports.Sources:Imports by HTS code:8541460015(2018-2021)/8541430010(2022-)and 8541460035(2018-2021)/8541430080(2022-),Second Quantity(watts)from the U.S.Census Bureau USA Trade Online tool and corrections page as of 5/6/24.Based on the

312、 reported value and capacity of imported PV modules and cells,the average price of a PV module and cell in the United States fell over the course of 2023 to$0.31/Wdc and$0.14/Wdc,respectively.In Q1 2024,U.S.module prices fell further to$0.29/Wdc while cell prices rose to$0.15/Wdc NREL|83NREL|83PV Ex

313、perience CurveThis solar PV experience curve,known as Swansons Law,displays the relationship,in logarithmic form,between the average selling price of a PV module and the cumulative global shipments of PV modules.For every doubling of cumulative PV shipments from 1976 to 2023,there has been on averag

314、e a 23%reduction in PV module price.Historically,due in large part to undersupply and oversupply conditions,pricing has deviated from the experience curve.Source:SPV Market Research.Report SPV-Supply12 April 2024.0.11101001,00001101001,00010,000100,0001,000,000 10,000,000Module ASP(2023$/W)Cumulativ

315、e Global Shipments(MW)NREL|84AgendaGlobal Solar Deployment1U.S.PV Deployment2PV System Pricing3Global Manufacturing4Component Pricing5Market and Policy67U.S.PV Imports The waiver of AD/CVD anti-circumvention tariffs on Southeast Asianmanufactured cells and modules that use Chinese wafers and other C

316、hinese products ends in June,and products must be installed by December.The White House announced in May that it would work to strictly enforce this.New AD/CVD case filed on all Southeast Asianmanufactured cells and modules.Preliminary determination expected in July,with final to come in October.How

317、ever,this could be delayed.Section 301 Tariffs updated to increase tariffs on Chinese PV,battery,and steel products,with exceptions for PV manufacturing equipment.The White House indicated that it would remove the bifacial exemption from Section 201 duties and may increase the 5 GW tariff rate quota

318、 for cells by an additional 7.5 GW to help domestic module assembly.NREL|85010203040502023c-Si Module Imports(GWdc)MalaysiaVietnamThailandCambodiaSouth KoreaIndiaChinaRest of AsiaN.AmericaROW0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.02023Imported c-Si Cells(GWdc)U.S.Cell+Module Imports by RegionIndonesiaThe morator

319、ium on AD/CVD anti-circumvention tariffs on Southeast Asianmanufactured cells and modules that use Chinese wafers and other Chinese products ends June 6th.Products must be installed by December 3rd to avoid the tariffs.The White House announced in May that it would work to strictly enforce this.Not

320、all Southeast Asian manufacturers were found to be circumventing.A separate AD/CVD case was filed on all Southeast Asianmanufactured cells and modules,alleging that imports from Cambodia,Malaysia,Thailand,and Vietnam are injuring the U.S.solar industry.An investigation is sought.A preliminary determ

321、ination is expected in July,with final to come in October.However,this could be delayed.The Alliance filing the case includes First Solar,Qcells,Convalt Energy,Meyer Burger,Mission Solar,REC Silicon,and Swift Solar.AD/CVD investigations can cause volatility in the U.S.solar market by pitting domesti

322、c PV cell and module manufacturers against the rest of the U.S.industry,making imported modules and cells more expensive,which can reduce PV installations.AD/CVD findings last for 5 years.But assessed duties can fluctuate significantly,are assessed annually,and have the potential to change retroacti

323、vely.Sources:First Solar,Qcells and others launch AD/CVD petition to DOC(pv-tech.org);New AD/CVD petition filed against solar cells and panels from Southeast Asia();Department of Commerce Issues Final Determination of Circumvention Inquiries of Solar Cells and Modules from China|U.S.Department of Co

324、mmerceThose four countries accounted for 62%of total imported cells and 74%of total imported modules into the United States in 2023.74%62%AD/CVD Tariffs on Southeast Asian Modules and CellsNREL|86NREL|86Other News Affecting Domestic ManufacturingSection 201 Tariff:The White House indicated in May th

325、at it would remove the bifacial exemption from Section 201 duties and may increase the 5 GW tariff rate quota for cells by an additional 7.5 GW to help domestic module assembly.Importers with pre-existing contracts for bifacial solar modules will have 90 days to certify those contracts to continue u

326、sing the exclusion.The Administration also announced it will monitor the level of imported solar cells used to manufacture panels in the United States and will work to raise the quota by 7.5 GW if imports approach the current tariff-rate quota level under Section 201.Section 301 Tariffs were updated

327、 to increase tariffs on Chinese PV,battery,and steel products.Announcement indicated that there would be an exception on PV manufacturing equipment.Domestic Content Bonus:The IRS just released updated guidance intended to make it easier to use the Domestic Content Bonus within the ITC and PTC tax cr

328、edits for electric generating assets.It includes a cost table based on NREL analyses,which taxpayers can elect to use in lieu of collecting proprietary cost data from vendors.Taxpayers can also treat the cost tables as exhaustive if they elect to use the safe harbor;without the safe harbor table,tax

329、payers may have to assess other manufactured products within a facility.On February 28,twelve U.S.senators wrote a letter to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and IRS Commissioner Danny Werfel asking them to include wafers and polysilicon in the equation when calculating whether or not a solar system

330、qualifies for the ITC/PTC domestic content bonus.They argue that the current domestic content bonus guidance does not sufficiently incentivize domestic manufacturing of these key supply chain components.The new guidance does not address this issue.NREL|87Production Linked Production Linked Incentive

331、IncentiveDuration:Duration:5 yearsCost:Cost:2.92b USDDescription:Description:Tranche 1 550m USD given to 3 bidders for setting up fully integrated PV manufacturingTranche 2 2.37b USD given to 11 bidders for setting up fully/partially integrated PV manufacturingDemandDemand-side incentives?side incen

332、tives?Yes,the Approved List of Models+ManufacturersTax Incentives via Budget Tax Incentives via Budget 20232023Duration:Duration:11 yearsCost:Cost:8.2b USD*Description:Description:30%refundable tax credit for investments in new machinery and equipment for clean technologies manufacturing or critical

333、 minerals processingDemandDemand-side incentives?side incentives?NoInternational Solar Manufacturing IncentivesInflation Reduction ActInflation Reduction ActDuration:Duration:11 years+Cost:Cost:370b USD(41b USD for manufacturing)*Description:Description:45X variable,per-unit tax credit for domestic manufacturers48C 30%tax credit on upfront costs of investment in a manufacturing facilityDemandDeman