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1、JLL Value and Risk AdvisoryYRD|August Yangtze River Delta Non-bondedGrade A Logistics Real EstateMarket OverviewQuarterly Report Q2 20242YRD Macroeconomic OverviewYRD Non-bonded Grade A Logistics Real Estate Market Overview01YRDMacroeconomicOverviewSource:National and Local Bureaus of Statistics,JLL

2、 Value&Risk AdvisoryJiangsuAnhuiZhejiangShanghaiPlanning Scope of the YRDCentral Area of the YRD3 3YRDs Share in ChinasTotal GDP,Q2 202424.0%YRDs Share in ChinasTotal Population,202316.8%YRDs Share in Chinas Import&Export Volume,Q2 202436.6%YRDs Share in Chinas TotalRetail Sales,Q2 202426.4%YRD Non-

3、bonded Grade A Logistics Real Estate Market OverviewYRD Macroeconomic OverviewRegional OverviewGrowth vs H1 2023Growth vs Q2 20234 4+4.3%+4.8%YRD Non-bonded Grade A Logistics Real Estate Market OverviewYRD Saw a Good Momentum ofEconomic Recovery in Q2YoY Nominal Growth,Q2 2024YoY Nominal Growth,H1 2

4、024YRDs GDP,2019 Q2 2024(Billion RMB)5,221 4,979 6,121 6,610 6,980 7,355 5,808 6,092 6,922 6,814 7,385 7,701 6,039 6,389 7,005 7,482 7,739 6,527 7,011 7,556 8,123 8,401 201920202021202220232024Q1Q2Q3Q4Source:National and Local Bureaus of Statistics,JLL Value&Risk AdvisoryYRD Macroeconomic Overview5

5、5+2.4%+3.5%YRDs Consumer Market RecoveryContinued in Q2YRD Non-bonded Grade A Logistics Real Estate Market OverviewYRDs Retail Sales,2019 Q2 2024(Billion RMB)2,169 1,819 2,743 2,787 2,960 3,097 2,138 2,376 2,805 2,559 2,982 3,053 2,187 2,503 2,641 2,795 2,868 2,414 2,829 2,958 2,977 3,152 2019202020

6、21202220232024Q1Q2Q3Q4Source:National and Local Bureaus of Statistics,JLL Value&Risk AdvisoryYRD Macroeconomic OverviewGrowth vs H1 2023Growth vs Q2 2023YoY Nominal Growth,Q2 2024YoY Nominal Growth,H1 20246 6+3.2%+3.7%YRDs Secondary Sector SawSubstantial Recovery in Q2Value Added of Secondary Sector

7、 of the YRD,2019 Q2 2024(Billion RMB)2,083 1,824 2,331 2,625 2,670 2,781 2,405 2,489 2,871 2,899 3,046 3,144 2,398 2,576 2,866 3,122 3,124 2,612 2,771 3,135 3,266 3,295 201920202021202220232024Q1Q2Q3Q4Source:National and Local Bureaus of Statistics,JLL Value&Risk AdvisoryYRD Macroeconomic OverviewYR

8、D Non-bonded Grade A Logistics Real Estate Market OverviewGrowth vs H1 2023Growth vs Q2 2023YoY Nominal Growth,Q2 2024YoY Nominal Growth,H1 20247 7+4.2%+5.5%YRDs Freight Traffic Growth Continued in Q2YRD Non-bonded Grade A Logistics Real Estate Market OverviewTotal Highways&Waterways Freight Traffic

9、 of the YRD,2019 Q2 2024(Million Tons)Source:National and Local Bureaus of Statistics,JLL Value&Risk AdvisoryYRD Macroeconomic OverviewGrowth vs H1 2023Growth vs Q2 2023YoY Nominal Growth,Q2 2024YoY Nominal Growth,H1 20242,219 1,945 2,444 2,523 2,563 2,746 2,723 2,853 3,054 2,718 3,123 3,252 2,705 2

10、,845 2,934 2,915 3,158 3,188 3,046 3,125 2,964 3,235 201920202021202220232024Q1Q2Q3Q427.1%42.1%LegendGDP(Billion RMB)&YoY Real GrowthImport&Export Volume(Billion RMB)&YoY Nominal GrowthRetail Sales(Billion RMB)&YoY Nominal Growth8Key Indicators of Provinces andMunicipality in YRD,H1 2024YRD Non-bond

11、ed Grade A Logistics Real Estate Market OverviewShanghai contributed 27.1%ofYRDs total import&export volumeAs the second-largest provincial economyin China,Jiangsu Province accounted for42.1%of YRD economyJiangsu2,683(+8.5%)6,333(+5.8%)2,418(+4.9%)397(+7.4%)2,397(+5.3%)1,200(+4.1%)Anhui2,098(+0.6%)2

12、,235(+4.8%)917(-2.3%)Shanghai2,565(+7.8%)4,092(+5.6%)1,616(+4.5%)ZhejiangSource:National and Local Bureaus of Statistics,JLL Value&Risk AdvisoryYRD Macroeconomic OverviewNet InflowNet OutflowOutbound migration to Beijing,Guangdong,Tianjin,Xinjiang,InnerMongolia,Hainan surpassed inboundmigration from

13、 the abovementioned 6 regions.92005-2010Inter-provincial Migration Patternof the Yangtze River Delta(YRD)Inbound migration from all otherprovincial-level regions surpassedoutbound migration.2015-2020Inter-provincial Migration Patternof the Yangtze River Delta(YRD)YRD Non-bonded Grade A Logistics Rea

14、l Estate Market OverviewOverall PopulationAttractiveness of YRD GrewContinuouslySource:National and Local Bureaus of Statistics,JLL Value&Risk AdvisoryYRD Macroeconomic OverviewBeijingBaodingLangfangTianjin28.00,35.00)1,200,2,000)21.00,28.00)900,1,200)14.00,21.00)600,900)7.00,14.00)300,600)0.00,7.00

15、)0,300)PRDJJJChengyuPopulation in 2023(Million)Retail Sales in 2023(Billion RMB)ZhaoqingHuizhouChengduNantong7.75(+0.65)422(+6.5%)Wuxi7.50(+0.56)357(+6.9%)Satellite CityTIer-3 City10Hefei9.85(+22.73)527(+5.0%)Nanjing9.55(+5.89)820(+4.7%)Suzhou12.96(+3.64)958(+6.4%)Shanghai24.87(+4.67)1,852(+12.6%)Ji

16、axing5.58(+5.94)251(+7.3%)Shaoxing5.39(+7.66)282(+9.1%)Hangzhou12.52(+11.80)767(+5.2%)Ningbo9.70(+8.21)521(+6.5%)LegendPopulation Size(Million)and YoY Change Rate in 2023Retail Sales(Billion RMB)and YoY Nominal Change Rate in 2023GuangzhouFoshanZhongshanJiangmenDongguanShenzhenYRD Non-bonded Grade A

17、 Logistics Real Estate Market OverviewPopulation Attractiveness ofYRD Continued to Grow in 2023TIer-1 CityTIer-2 CityMeishanSource:National and Local Bureaus of Statistics,JLL Value&Risk AdvisoryYRD Macroeconomic OverviewChongqing11YRD Non-bonded Grade A Logistics Real Estate Market Overview02YRDsLo

18、gisticsMarketThe scope of study of this section covers key logistics markets in YRD,namely Shanghai,Nanjing,Suzhou(incl.Kunshan,Taicang,Changshu,Zhangjiagang),Wuxi,Nantong,Hangzhou,Ningbo,Jiaxing,Shaoxing and Hefei.Stock DistributionNearly Half of YRDs Total Stockare Concentrated in Shanghai&Its Sat

19、ellite CitiesNon-bonded Grade A Logistics Stock Floor Area(Million sqm)Total stock in greater Shanghai markets(Shanghai,Jiaxing,Kunshan,Taicang,Changshu,Zhangjiagang)Share of greater Shanghaisstock in YRD total,Q2 202428.0049.2%Million sqmHefei4.3112Suzhou*is exclusive of Kunshan,Taicang,Changshu,Zh

20、angjiagang5.00,15.003.00,5.00)1.00,3.00)0.00,1.00)YRD Non-bonded Grade A Logistics Real Estate Market OverviewNanjing4.48Changzhou0.97Zhangjiagang0.71Nantong1.41Changshu2.33Taicang2.13Wuxi3.57 Kunshan4.49Hangzhou3.77Shaoxing1.60Jiaxing6.45Shanghai11.89Ningbo3.63Source:JLL Value and Risk AdvisoryYRDs

21、 Logistics MarketSuzhou*5.12Average Rent(RMB/sqm/day)and QoQ Change,Q2 2024Overall rent level of YRD in Q2registered QoQ drop of 0.6%9 out of 15 key logistics marketsin YRD registered QoQ drop1.199/15CitiesRMB/sqm/dayChangzhou1.02+0.8%Nantong0.80-1.9%Ningbo1.07-0.5%Hangzhou1.20-1.3%Hefei0.90+0.5%Sha

22、nghai1.62+0.5%Jiaxing1.06-0.1%Suzhou*1.29-0.2%13Nanjing0.98-1.0%Shaoxing1.00+2.7%Kunshan1.300.0%Taicang1.24+0.3%1.50,2.001.20,1.50)1.00,1.20)0.00,1.00)Wuxi1.06-0.8%YRD Non-bonded Grade A Logistics Real Estate Market OverviewRentThe Majority of YRD Cities Registered QoQ Drop in Q2Suzhou*is exclusive

23、of Kunshan,Taicang,Changshu,ZhangjiagangSource:JLL Value and Risk AdvisoryYRDs Logistics MarketZhangjiagang0.99-3.4%Changshu1.03-1.4%Overall occupancy level ofYRD decreased by 1.3 pp QoQ9 out of 15 key logistics marketsin YRD registered QoQ drop-1.3pp9/15Average Occupancy Rate and QoQ Change,Q2 2024

24、Changzhou76.9%+1.4ppShaoxing74.5%-0.6ppHangzhou81.9%-1.2ppJiaxing74.4%+1.4pp14Hefei92.1%-0.5ppTaicang68.4%+4.5ppChangshu62.3%+4.7ppZhangjiagang51.0%+1.3ppNingbo83.4%-0.6ppShanghai75.2%-4.1ppWuxi85.1%-4.5pp90.0%,100.0%80.0%,90.0%)70.0%,80.0%)0.0%,70.0%)YRD Non-bonded Grade A Logistics Real Estate Mar

25、ket OverviewOccupancy60%of YRD Cities Occupancy Level Dropped QoQ in Q2CitiesSuzhou*is exclusive of Kunshan,Taicang,Changshu,ZhangjiagangSource:JLL Value and Risk AdvisoryYRDs Logistics MarketNantong77.9%+9.0ppNanjing81.1%+5.7ppKunshan78.7%-3.3ppSuzhou*73.2%-9.1ppLogistics Market Key Transactions15Y

26、RD Non-bonded Grade A Logistics Real Estate Market OverviewSource:JLL Value and Risk AdvisoryYRDs Logistics MarketDateNameLocationNo.of AssetsGFA(sqm)Volume of Transaction(RMB mn)SellerBuyerCap RateFebruary2024Gaw CapitalPortfolio3 logistics parktransactionsJiangmen,Xian6495,2152,000Gaw CapitalPinga

27、n6.00%-6.50%November2023ESR LogisticsPortfolio 6 logisticspark transactionsDongguan,Langfang,Xuzhou,Suzhou,Jiaxing6331,4002,300ESRTaikang5.00%-5.50%October2023Deppon LogisticsPortfolio 4 logisticspark transactionsXian,Huaian,Xiamen,Qingdao4219,119940DepponCDHInvestments6.00%March2023Portfolio of hig

28、hqualitylogisticsindustrial assets inthe YRDYRDN/A450,0002,300Overseaswell-knowndevelopmentcompanyGaolu6.00%+February2023NWS acquires a 90%stake in SuzhouIndustrial ParkSuzhou175,000Leasable Area513ZhongjiNWSN/AJuly2022ESR GIC PrimeLogistics andIndustrial PortfolioDongguan,Wuhan,Changsha,Chongqing,N

29、anjing,Wuxi,Shenyang,Tianjin9873,000BalanceSheet4,900ESRGIC/ESR JV5.30%-5.80%June2022SC CapitalMorganStanley PortfolioNantong,Taicang,Jiaxing3210,770850SC CapitalMorganStanley5.30%May2022Goodman NWSLogistics PortfolioChengdu,Wuhan6531,0002,290GoodmanNWS5.50%-6.00%May2022DongbaiLinkLogistics Portfoli

30、oChangshu,Jiaxing3192,144947DongbaiGroupLink5.10%-5.50%Shanghai&Suzhou*Non-bondedGrade A LogisticsSub-markets,Q2 2024Average Rent(RMB/sqm/day)16Average Occupancy RateWuzhongWujiangQingpuJinshanFengxianPudongHuqiuXiangchengJiadingPutuoBaoshanMinhangGusu1.00,5.000.50,1.00)0.00,0.50)1.80,2.101.50,1.80)

31、1.20,1.50)0.00,1.20)HuqiuWuzhongXiangchengGusuWujiangJiadingQingpuBaoshanMinhangSongjiangFengxianPudong90.0%,100.0%80.0%,90.0%)70.0%,80.0%)0.0%,70.0%)Non-bonded Grade A Stock(Million sqm.)YRD Non-bonded Grade A Logistics Real Estate Market OverviewSongjiangHuqiuXiangchengWujiangJinshanQingpuBaoshanP

32、utuoMinhangSongjiangFengxianPudongSuzhou*is exclusive of Kunshan,Taicang,Changshu,ZhangjiagangSource:JLL Value and Risk AdvisoryYRDs Logistics MarketPutuoJinshanWuzhongGusuJiading17Average Rent(RMB/sqm/day)Average Occupancy RateNon-bonded Grade A Stock(Million sqm.)QiantangLinpingYuhangYuhangLinping

33、Qiantang1.00,2.000.50,1.00)0.00,0.50)1.50,2.001.20,1.50)1.00,1.20)0.00,1.00)90.0%,100.0%80.0%,90.0%)70.0%,80.0%)0.0%,70.0%)YRD Non-bonded Grade A Logistics Real Estate Market OverviewHangzhou Non-bonded Grade A LogisticsSub-markets,Q2 2024QiantangLinpingYuhangSource:JLL Value and Risk AdvisoryYRDs L

34、ogistics MarketNon-bonded Grade A Stock(Million sqm.)Average Rent(RMB/sqm/day)JiangningPukouLuheQixiaLishuiPukouJiangningLuheLishui181.00,3.000.50,1.00)0.00,0.50)1.50,2.001.20,1.50)1.00,1.20)0.00,1.00)90.0%,100.0%80.0%,90.0%)70.0%,80.0%)0.0%,70.0%)QixiaAverage Occupancy RateYRD Non-bonded Grade A Lo

35、gistics Real Estate Market OverviewNanjing Non-bonded Grade A LogisticsSub-markets,Q2 2024PukouJiangningLuheLishuiQixiaSource:JLL Value and Risk AdvisoryYRDs Logistics MarketAverage Rent(RMB/sqm/day)19Average Occupancy RateNon-bonded Grade A Stock(Million sqm.)BaoheChangfengFeidongFeixiShushan1.00,2

36、.000.50,1.00)0.00,0.50)FeixiBaoheFeidongChangfengShushan1.50,2.001.20,1.50)1.00,1.20)0.00,1.00)90.0%,100.0%80.0%,90.0%)70.0%,80.0%)0.0%,70.0%)YRD Non-bonded Grade A Logistics Real Estate Market OverviewHefei Non-bonded Grade A LogisticsSub-markets,Q2 2024Source:JLL Value and Risk AdvisoryYRDs Logist

37、ics MarketBaoheChangfengFeidongFeixiShushan20Average Rent(RMB/sqm/day)Average Occupancy RateFenghuaJiangbeiBeilunJiangbeiCixiYuyaoFenghuaCixiYuyaoBeilunNon-bonded Grade A Stock(Million sqm.)100.00,500.0050.00,100.00)0.00,50.00)1.50,2.001.20,1.50)1.00,1.20)0.00,1.00)90.0%,100.0%80.0%,90.0%)70.0%,80.0

38、%)0.0%,70.0%)YRD Non-bonded Grade A Logistics Real Estate Market OverviewNingbo Non-bonded Grade A LogisticsSub-markets,Q2 2024Source:JLL Value and Risk AdvisoryYRDs Logistics MarketBeilunJiangbeiCixiYuyaoFenghua03Summary&OutlookMacro1 1 The YRD has seen strong economic recovery in Q2 2024,with vari

39、ous economic indicators taking up a significant percentage in Chinas national total.The overall GDP growth rate in the YRD region was on par with the national average.In addition,YRDs international trading sector experienced robust growth in Q2,with its share of total value of goods imports and expo

40、rts in the national total further increased.The growth rates of imports and exports in Zhejiang,Jiangsu,and Anhui provinces all significantly exceeded the national average in H1,injecting strong momentum into the economic development of the YRD region.4 4InvestmentIn Q2 2024,Chinas logistics real es

41、tate leasing market continues to face the risk of a downward trend.In such market environment,investors have maintained a cautious attitude towards en-bloc logistics real estate investments in Chinas logistics real estate,and no notable en-bloc transactions were recorded in Chinas logistics real est

42、ate investment market in Q2 2024.Nevertheless,as one of the most dynamic regions of Chinas economy,the YRD region continues to maintain strong appeal for investors.As the supply and demand balance in the YRD market gradually stabilizes,it is expected that the logistics investment market in the regio

43、n will gradually recover.Investors are advised to pay close attention to market dynamics and seek logistics real estate investment opportunities with potential for value appreciation.2 2DemandYRDs total retail sales of consumer goods accounted for 26.4%of the national total in Q2,marking a substanti

44、al increase of 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous quarter,reinforcing the regions position as a critical engine of Chinas economy.The steady growth in total retail sales of consumer goods reflects the continued release of consumer market demand.As the consumer market expands,the demand f

45、or logistics has also increased,particularly in the e-commerce and FMCG sectors.At the same time,some tier-2 cities in the YRD region,such as Hefei and Ningbo,also showed a strong growth momentum in the consumer market.The development of consumer markets in these cities has not only driven demand fo

46、r local logistics real estate but has also provided new growth opportunities for logistics services.Leasing PerformanceDue to relatively weak market demand in Shanghai and its surrounding areas,coupled with a significant increase in new supply compared to the previous quarter,YRDs occupancy rate con

47、tinued to decline in Q2,remaining below 80%.Simultaneously,9 out of the 15 key logistics markets in YRD registered QoQ rent declines,with the overall rent level in the region recording a 0.6%QoQ decrease.The pressure on leasing absorption across the YRD region persisted during the quarter.3 321Summa

48、ry&OutlookYRD Non-bonded Grade A Logistics Real Estate Market OverviewBusiness contactMain authorGreater ChinaSylvia LauManaging DirectorValue and Risk AdvisoryGreater CNorth ChinaEcho LiSenior DEast China Arnold GaoSenior DSouth ChinaTracy Song Senior DSigrid Zhou Director Hans HanSenior Analyst Ia

49、n XuSenior Analyst ChinaGeorge XiongHead of Value and Risk AdvisoryCWest ChinaJames LiangSenior DGBAWendy Chan Growth D22YRD Non-bonded Grade A Logistics Real Estate Market OverviewJLL Offices in Greater ChinaBeijing8/FChina Life Finance CentreNo.23 Zhenzhi Rd,Chaoyang District Beijing 100026tel+86

50、10 5922 1300Chengdu29/FTower 1,Chengdu International Finance Square 1 Hongxing Road Section 3Chengdu 610021,Sichuantel+86 28 6680 5000fax+86 28 6680 5096Chongqing45/FChongqing World Financial Center No.188 Minzu Road,Yuzhong District Chongqing 400010tel+86 23 6370 8588fax+86 23 6370 8598GuangzhouRoo

51、m 2801-03Guangzhou CTF Finance Centre No.6 Zhujiang East RoadZhujiang New Town,Tianhe District Guangzhou 510623,Guangdongtel+86 20 2338 8088fax+86 20 2338 8118HangzhouUnit 802T2,Raffles City Hangzhou No.228 Xinye Road,Shangcheng District Hangzhou 310000,Zhejiangtel+86 571 8196 5988fax+86 571 8196 59

52、66NanjingRoom 2201Deji Plaza Office Tower18 Zhongshan RoadNanjing 210018,Jiangsutel+86 25 8966 0660fax+86 25 8966 0663QingdaoUnit 2308Tower A,COSCO Plaza61 Hong Kong Middle Road,Shinan DistrictQingdao 266071,Shandongtel+86 532 8446 8816fax+86 532 8579 5801Shanghai22/FHKRI Centre One,HKRI Taikoo Hui

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