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1、Balancing the Benefits of Biofuels THE ECONOMICS OF U.S.CROP-BASED FUEL PRODUCTIONJULY Stillwater Associates is a transportation fuels consulting firm specializing in mid-to downstream markets.We are fueling the futureof transportation energy with trusted industry experience.Our associates leverage

2、decades-long careers at major oil corporations and government agencies to help clients navigate challenges with the highest level of industry knowledge,market analysis,policy insight,and emerging technology strategies.Ourclients include government agencies,petroleum and renewable fuels companies,tra

3、de associations,technology developers,private equity firms and law firms.Contributing authors:Megan Boutwell,Mike Leister,Jim Mladenik,Leigh Noda,Dr.Adam Schubert,Kendra Seymour,and Gary Yowell.Stillwaters team was joined by Dr.Madhu Khanna,the ACES Distinguished Professor of Environmental Economics

4、 in the Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics and Alvin H.Baum Family Chair and Director of the Institute for Sustainability,Energy,and Environment,the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.Disclaimer:Stillwater Associates LLC prepared this report for the sole benefit of the Transpo

5、rtation Energy Institute and no other party.Stillwater Associates LLC conducted the analysis and prepared this report using reasonable care and skill in applying methods of analysis consistent with normal industry practice.All results are based on information available at the time of preparation.Cha

6、nges in factors upon which the report is based could affect the results.Forecasts are inherently uncertain because of events that cannot be foreseen,including the actions of governments,individuals,third parties,and competitors.Nothing contained in this report is intended as a recommendation in favo

7、r of or against any particular action or conclusion.Any particular action or conclusion based on this report shall be solely that of the Transportation Energy Institute.No implied warranty of merchantability shall apply,nor shall any implied warranty of fitness for any particular purpose.2024 Transp

8、ortation Energy Institute Disclaimer:The opinions and views expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the individuals on the Transportation Energy Institute Board of Directors and the Transportation Energy Institute Board of Advisors or any contributing organization to the Transp

9、ortation Energy Institute.Transportation Energy Institute makes no warranty,express or implied,nor does it assume any legal liability or responsibility for the use of the report or any product or process described in these materials.3TRANSPORTATION ENERGY INSTITUTE|BALANCING THE BENEFITS OF BIOFUELS

10、EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .05SECTION 1 BIOFUELS OVERVIEW .09 Types and Volumes of Biofuels Produced .11 Types of Feedstock Utilized .12 Volumes of Feedstock Utilized .15 Co-products of Biofuels Production .16SECTION 2 FEEDSTOCK PRODUCTION .18 Acreage Used for Production of Biofuel Feedstocks in the U.S.18 C

11、orn .20 Soybeans .20 Grain Sorghum .24 Canola .24 Summary .25 Total U.S.Agricultural Crop Acres .26 Feedstock Yields .29 Biofuel Yields from Feedstocks .33 Future Demands for Feedstocks and Acreage.36SECTION 3 BIOFUELS PRODUCTION .40 Ethanol Production Inputs .41 Biodiesel Production Inputs .42 Rene

12、wable Diesel Production Inputs .43SECTION 4 ANCILLARY COMMERCIAL PRODUCTS .45 Ethanol Co-products .45 Carbon Dioxide .45 Corn/Grain Sorghum Oil .46 Distillers Grains .46 Biodiesel Co-product.47 Renewable Diesel and SAF Co-products .47 Renewable Fuel Gas .48 Renewable Propane(Renewable Liquified Petr

13、oleum Gas).48 Renewable Naphtha .48 Paraffinic Waxes .48Contents4TRANSPORTATION ENERGY INSTITUTE|BALANCING THE BENEFITS OF BIOFUELSSECTION 5 PRODUCTION COSTS OF BIOFUELS.49 Feedstock Costs of Biofuels.49 Feedstock to Biofuel Conversion Costs .53 Per-Gallon Production Cost for Ethanol and Biodiesel .

14、54 Per-Gallon Production Cost for Renewable Diesel .57SECTION 6 EFFECT OF GOVERNMENT POLICIES ON PERFORMANCE OF BIOFUELS .59 Programs Improving Producers Environmental Impact .59 Cost-Benefit Associated with These Policies .66 Impact on Environment of Programs Implemented by Farmers and Biofuels Pro

15、ducers .70SECTION 7 FOOD VERSUS FUEL CONSIDERATIONS .72 Feedstocks Used for Both Food and Fuel .72 Implications of Expanded Production of Biofuel Feedstocks on Overall Agricultural Production .74 Effects of Biofuels on Agricultural Production and Prices .74 Foreseeable Scenarios that Could Meaningfu

16、lly Deplete Feedstock Supply .79 Impact of Increased Biofuels-Related Feedstock Production on the Relationship Between Each Biofuel and the Production of Feedstock for Food Production .79 Global Markets and Feedstock Competition .80 Conclusion .82SECTION 8 POLICY IMPACTS.83 Historical Policy Impacts

17、 .85 Feedstocks .85 Ethanol .85 Biodiesel and Renewable Diesel .87 Policy Conclusions .88CONCLUSIONS.89APENDIX,ACRONYMS&ABBREVIATIONS.91 Acronyms&Abbreviations .92 Appendix .93 4 45TRANSPORTATION ENERGY INSTITUTEExecutive SummaryBalancing the Benefits of Biofuels:The Economics of U.S.Crop-Based Fuel

18、 ProductionBiofuels possess great potential to contribute to a lower-carbon transportation sector,yet questions remain regarding the overall economic and environmental impact of the industry.While biofuels are produced from a wide range of feedstocks,those produced from crop-based feedstocks raise t

19、he most questions due to potential conflict with the use of those same crops for food and livestock feed.In this report,we evaluate the economics and impacts of crop-based biofuels production.In section 1,we provide an overview of the biofuels landscape in the U.S.at present.Ethanol,biodiesel(BD),an

20、d renewable diesel(RD)combined make up more than 99%of all U.S.production;hence,this report focuses on these primary biofuels.The market for sustainable aviation fuel(SAF)is in a nascent state as of this writing.We anticipate that with sufficient policy support,SAF will grow over the coming decades

21、and compete for the same feedstocks utilized for ethanol,BD,and RD.The magnitude of 1 The original RFS was established by the Energy Policy Act of 2005(PL 109-58),enacted on August 8,2005.The RFS was significantly expanded and modified into its current form(RFS2)by the Energy Independence and Securi

22、ty Act of 2007(PL 110-140),enwacted on December 19,2007.the policy incentives and associated rate of growth in SAF production is a public policy decision that we do not attempt to forecast in this report.The specific policy enactments will impact the extent to which this results in changing the util

23、ization of the feedstocks covered by this outlook versus simply increasing the demand for those same feedstocks.As these markets evolve,we expect the analysis laid out herein to evolve as well.Section 2 is dedicated to explaining the current landscape of feedstock production.The primary crop-based f

24、eedstocks used to produce ethanol,BD,RD,and SAF in the U.S.are corn,soybeans,and canola.While biofuel feedstock acreage jumped sharply between 2010(the first year of the current federal Renewable Fuel Standard RFS program)1 and 2011,since then,the acreage requirement has been relatively steady,betwe

25、en 40 and 47 million acres per year(average 44.3 million acres).Additionally,per-acre yields of each of the primary biofuels feedstocks have been growing steadily over time;the cumulative effect of these trends is that the supply of these feedstocks has grown more rapidly than the acreage dedicated

26、to these crops.Key factors contributing to this steady growth in yields are regular improvements in seeds as well as adoption of improved agronomic practices by the many individual farmers growing these crops.6TRANSPORTATION ENERGY INSTITUTE|BALANCING THE BENEFITS OF BIOFUELSBiofuel production effic

27、iency has also increased over the past decade.The U.S.Energy Information Administration(EIA)in their 2023 Annual Energy Outlook2 expects 2024 to be the near-term peak for U.S.ethanol,BD,and RD productionand therefore also for feedstock demandgiven the federal and state incentive programs in place in

28、 the fall of 2022.Considering potential regulations needed to implement the SAF Grand Challenge,3 low-carbon fuel(LCF)programs proposed in several state legislatures,and emerging international interest in decarbonizing marine transport,there is strong reason to believe that U.S.demand for biofuels c

29、ould keep growing well beyond 2024.The portion of the agriculture sector that produces feedstocks for biofuels also supplies the global food and feed market,which is much larger than the 2 EIA|Annual Energy Outlook 20233 U.S.Department of Energy|Sustainable Aviation Fuel Grand Challengebiofuel feeds

30、tock market.Figure ES-1 provides an overview of the flow of crop-based feed,food,and fuel production.Understanding the interdependent relationships of these markets is key to understanding the economics and impacts of the biofuels industry in the U.S.In section 3 we explain the inputs into biofuels

31、production,broken down into two primary components:feedstock production and feedstock conversion to biofuel.Feedstock costs account for the majority of the cost of producing biofuels,while conversion costs account for most of the remainder.Costs for transporting feedstocks to production plants and b

32、iofuels to market are also a factor,but they are small relative to feedstock production and conversion to biofuels.FIGURE ES-1.PROGRESSION OF FEED,FOOD,AND FUEL PRODUCTION FROM SOY,CANOLA,AND CORNSYSTEM WEIGHT BREAKDOWNSTotal Cost of OwnershipRicardo input to be used to define weight inputUTILITY DI

33、STRIBUTION NETWORKService connectionSupply infrastructureCharger equipmentMETERCONDUCTOR(BORING/TRENCHING)EV CHARGEREVPANELUTILITY PAD-MOUNTED TRANSFORMERSYSTEM LEVEL GHGBEVPowertrainRaw material to finished productGLOBAL FOOD&FEED MARKETSSoy&Canola MealSoy&Canola OilCorn GrainBIOFUELSPRODUCTIONPret

34、reatmentFermentation/ReactionPurificationINPUTSNatural GasElectricityCOMMODITY PRODUCTIONSeparationDryingCrushingTYPES OF BYPRODUCTS*Distillers Grains(ethanol)CO2(ethanol)Glycerin(BD)Renewable Propane(RD)Renewable Naphtha(RD)TYPES OFBIOFUELSEthanolBiodieselRenewable Diesel/Sustainable Aviation FuelD

35、ried Distillers Grains&SolubleBY-PRODUCTS*BIOFUELSINPUTSSoybeans,Canola,and Corn GrainsSoy&Canola OilCorn GrainINPUTSLandSeedFuelWaterFertilizerFARMINGPlantingGrowingHarvestingFuelElectricityWaterCatalyst&Chemicals/EnzymesReactants(Methanol,Hydrogen)*Also called ancillary commercial products7TRANSPO

36、RTATION ENERGY INSTITUTE|BALANCING THE BENEFITS OF BIOFUELSIn section 4 we cover the co-products(also referred to as by-products or ancillary commercial products)of each of the biofuels conversion processes.For ethanol,the co-products are carbon dioxide,corn or grain sorghum oil,and distillers grain

37、s.The primary co-product from the BD conversion process is crude glycerol.The co-products from the only currently commercialized refining process for production of RD and SAF are renewable fuel gas,renewable propane,and renewable naphtha.In section 5 we delve into the production costs of biofuels;th

38、ese can be broken into the feedstock production costs and feedstock conversion costs.The feedstock production costs can be viewed as the costs to produce the commodity grain or oil that is converted to biofuel.Biofuel feedstockscommodity grains and oilseedsare primarily produced as food and animal f

39、eed,and these food 4 Grain sorghum is not typically used as human food;its dominant use is as livestock feed.and feed markets are the drivers for pricing of these commodities.Thus,the cost of producing the feedstocks is not directly a cost of biofuels production,as the commodity price sets the cost

40、of feedstock to the biofuel industry.In section 6 we wade into the food versus fuel debate.Overall demand for food,both in the U.S.and globally,is set primarily by growth in population and secondarily by economic growth.How that overall food demand translates into demand for corn,grain sorghum,4 soy

41、beans,and canola will also be dependent on trends in food preferences(e.g.,preference for meat versus vegetables in the diet),which are difficult to predict and outside the scope of this report.The impact of the production of corn ethanol on food prices and indirect land use change was more signific

42、ant in the early years of the RFS than in the long run.These effects were exacerbated Per-acre yields of each of the primary biofuels feedstocks have been growing steadily over time;the cumulative effect of these trends is that the supply of these feedstocks has grown more rapidly than the acreage d

43、edicated to these crops.TRANSPORTATION ENERGY INSTITUTE|BALANCING THE BENEFITS OF BIOFUELS8TRANSPORTATION ENERGY INSTITUTE|BALANCING THE BENEFITS OF BIOFUELSby other factors,including low crop stocks,high energy prices,and growing overseas demand for food.Agricultural supply responded to higher pric

44、es by increasing productivity,inducing more double-cropping,and changing the mix of crops;U.S.crop acres have decreased over time,but acres dedicated to corn and soy have become a larger share of the mix.The mix of livestock products demanded over time has also changed.In the long run,the demand and

45、 supply of agricultural commodities tends to be more elastic,and this has helped mitigate the food versus fuel effects.In section 7,we highlight the impacts of policy on the feedstock and biofuels sectors.A combination of factorsincluding the RFS,tax credits,the methyl tert-butyl ether(MTBE)ban,and

46、oil priceshave contributed to the expansion in biofuel production in the U.S.,while LCF programs have resulted in increased demand for these fuels and a decrease in the carbon intensity(CI)of transportation fuel in their jurisdictions.Such policies have resulted in very large shares of corn and soyb

47、eans used in the fuel production process also yielding food and livestock feed.Several broad conclusions can be drawn from this review.Section 8 offers a few conclusions and key findings from this analysis.We find that there is significant potential to lower the CI of corn ethanol by adopting climat

48、e-smart practices for crop production,such as increasing the efficiency of nitrogen fertilizer use,reducing use of fossil energy for crop production,and increasing soil carbon sequestration.Positive environmental opportunities could be supported if policies to address climate change could take into

49、consideration environmental impacts across agencies and sectors,just as those factors are considered in the transportation sector.In order to incentivize continued carbon reductions in the agricultural side of the equation,for example,regulators might consider establishing a mechanism for biofuel pr

50、oducers to earn credit from improved feedstock production processes that will increase the climate change and environmental benefits of biofuels.Government policies that supplement existing policies could be helpful.These might include conservation programs as well as pricing carbon and nitrate emis

51、sions to create incentives for the agricultural industry to adopt new technologies that increase productivity while lowering environmental impacts.By creating consistent and growing demand,state LCF programs and the federal RFS and clean fuels provisions in the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 can al

52、so help drive increased efficiencies in the cultivation of renewable feedstocks and in the production of renewable fuels from those feedstocks.To successfully drive renewable fuel production and adoption,however,these programs must reduce the costs of feedstock and fuel production to the point at wh

53、ich the market can afford their use.TRANSPORTATION ENERGY INSTITUTE|BALANCING THE BENEFITS OF BIOFUELS9The primary biofuels produced in the U.S.are ethanol,biodiesel(BD),renewable diesel(RD),renewable natural gas,renewable jet fuel(also known as sustainable aviation fuel SAF),and renewable naphtha(R

54、N).5 Of these,ethanol,BD,and RD combined make up more than 99%of all U.S.production;hence,this report focuses on those primary biofuels.The feedstocks and production process for current commercial SAF production closely parallel those required for RD;therefore,most observations about RD production h

55、erein can also be applied to SAF.5 EIA|Biofuels ExplainedTRANSPORTATION ENERGY INSTITUTE|BALANCING THE BENEFITS OF BIOFUELSSECTION 1.Biofuels OverviewTRANSPORTATION ENERGY INSTITUTE|BALANCING THE BENEFITS OF BIOFUELS10The primary crop-based feedstocks used to produce ethanol,BD,and RD in the U.S.are

56、 corn to produce ethanol,and soybeans and canola for BD and RD.In addition to soybean and canola oil,fats,oils,and greases(FOG)including tallow,used cooking oils,and white and yellow greasesare used as feedstock for BD and RD.Feedstocks for RD production are predominately FOG and inedible corn oil f

57、rom ethanol production.The portion of the agriculture sector that produces feedstocks for biofuels also supplies the global food and feed market,which is much larger than the biofuel feedstock market.Figure 1 provides an overview of the flow of crop-based feed,food,and fuel production.Understanding

58、the interdependent relationships of these markets is key to understanding the economics and impacts of the biofuels industry in the U.S.We will expand upon the concepts presented in Figure 1 in each of the sections that follow.FIGURE 1.PROGRESSION OF FEED,FOOD,AND FUEL PRODUCTION FROM SOY,CANOLA,AND

59、 CORNSYSTEM WEIGHT BREAKDOWNSTotal Cost of OwnershipRicardo input to be used to define weight inputUTILITY DISTRIBUTION NETWORKService connectionSupply infrastructureCharger equipmentMETERCONDUCTOR(BORING/TRENCHING)EV CHARGEREVPANELUTILITY PAD-MOUNTED TRANSFORMERSYSTEM LEVEL GHGBEVPowertrainRaw mate

60、rial to finished productGLOBAL FOOD&FEED MARKETSSoy&Canola MealSoy&Canola OilCorn GrainBIOFUELSPRODUCTIONPretreatmentFermentation/ReactionPurificationINPUTSNatural GasElectricityCOMMODITY PRODUCTIONSeparationDryingCrushingTYPES OF BYPRODUCTS*Distillers Grains(ethanol)CO2(ethanol)Glycerin(BD)Renewabl

61、e Propane(RD)Renewable Naphtha(RD)TYPES OFBIOFUELSEthanolBiodieselRenewable Diesel/Sustainable Aviation FuelDried Distillers Grains&SolubleBY-PRODUCTS*BIOFUELSINPUTSSoy&Canola OilCorn GrainFuelElectricityWaterCatalyst&Chemicals/EnzymesReactants(Methanol,Hydrogen)Soybeans,Canola,and Corn GrainsINPUTS

62、LandSeedFuelWaterFertilizerFARMINGPlantingGrowingHarvesting*Also called ancillary commercial productsTRANSPORTATION ENERGY INSTITUTE|BALANCING THE BENEFITS OF BIOFUELS112010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022Million gallons$54,568$69,262200,000 MILES(average US electricity mix)19,000 MI

63、LES(states with low carbon electricity)20082010200920112014201320152012201620172018 Efficient ICE vehicleDiesel ICEDiesel hybrid(4.8 kWh)Diesel PHEV(38 kWh)BEV(345 kWh)Diesel ICEDiesel PHEV(38 kWh)BEV(Optare)(92 kWh)BEV(Wrightbus)(150 kWh)BEV(BYD)(324 kWh)26.629.232.835.839.441.439.941.241.311%05,00

64、010,00015,0001.1 TYPES AND VOLUMES OF BIOFUELS PRODUCEDBased on information supplied by the U.S.Department of Agriculture(USDA),Figure 2 displays the volumes of biofuels and SAF used to comply with the federal Renewable Fuel Standard(RFS).Ethanol makes up over 79%of the volume in 2022,while BD and R

65、D are each slightly over 10%.SAF is only about 0.1%of the volume produced.In the incomplete 2023 data not graphed,ethanol,BD,and RD made up about 75%,11%,and 14%of the volume,respectively,indicating the continued growth in RD production.FIGURE 2.U.S.BIOFUELS PRODUCTION(20102022)Source:USDA|Quick Sta

66、tsEthanolBDRDSAF11TRANSPORTATION ENERGY INSTITUTE|BALANCING THE BENEFITS OF BIOFUELS121.2 TYPES OF FEEDSTOCK UTILIZEDThe amounts of feedstocks used to produce these biofuels are depicted in Figures 3,4,and 5.As can be seen,the three primary crop-based feedstocks are corn for ethanol,and soybeans and

67、 canola for BD and RD.Figure 3 shows ethanol production volume by feedstock between 2010 and 2022.Over the past 12 years,corn has been the feedstock used to produce about 98%of all ethanol in the U.S.A decade ago,sugarcane ethanol from Brazil made up 3%4%of ethanol used in the U.S.,but in recent yea

68、rs sugarcane and sorghum combined have been used for less than 1%of ethanol production.TRANSPORTATION ENERGY INSTITUTE|BALANCING THE BENEFITS OF BIOFUELS2010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022Ethanol volumes,million gallons DIESEL POOLGASOLINE POOL$54,568$69,262200,000 MILES(average US

69、electricity mix)19,000 MILES(states with low carbon electricity)20082010200920112014201320152012201620172018 Efficient ICE vehicleDiesel ICEDiesel hybrid(4.8 kWh)Diesel PHEV(38 kWh)BEV(345 kWh)Diesel ICEDiesel PHEV(38 kWh)BEV(Optare)(92 kWh)BEV(Wrightbus)(150 kWh)BEV(BYD)(324 kWh)26.629.232.835.839.

70、441.439.941.241.311%05,00010,00015,000CornSorghumFIGURE 3.U.S.ETHANOL PRODUCTION VOLUMES BY FEEDSTOCK(20102022)Sugar CaneNot ListedSource:USDA|Quick StatsTRANSPORTATION ENERGY INSTITUTE|BALANCING THE BENEFITS OF BIOFUELS13Figure 4 shows BD production volume by feedstock between 2010 and 2022.Soybean

71、 oil has consistently been the most common feedstock used,accounting for more than 50%of BD production since 2016.FOG6 made up the largest fraction of BD feedstocks used in 2010,but its volume peaked in 2013,after which RD facilities began attracting increased FOG volumes.By 2022,FOG made up just 8.

72、5%of the feedstock used in BD production in the U.S.Canola oil is now the second largest feedstock used for BD production,at just under 14%of the total in 2022,and corn oil was used to produce 5%of the BD in that same year.Other common types of feedstocks used include cottonseed and palm oils.6 Per

73、EIA,FOG includes animal fats from meat processing plants,used/recycled cooking oil,and yellow grease from restaurants.2010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022BD volumes,million gallons$54,568$69,262200,000 MILES(average US electricity mix)19,000 MILES(states with low carbon electricity)2

74、0082010200920112014201320152012201620172018 Efficient ICE vehicleDiesel ICEDiesel hybrid(4.8 kWh)Diesel PHEV(38 kWh)BEV(345 kWh)Diesel ICEDiesel PHEV(38 kWh)BEV(Optare)(92 kWh)BEV(Wrightbus)(150 kWh)BEV(BYD)(324 kWh)26.629.232.835.839.441.439.941.241.311%05001,0001,5002,0002,500Soybean OilCanola Oil

75、FIGURE 4.U.S.BD PRODUCTION VOLUMES BY FEEDSTOCK(20102022)Oils/Fats/GreasesCorn OilAll othersSource:USDA|Quick StatsTRANSPORTATION ENERGY INSTITUTE|BALANCING THE BENEFITS OF BIOFUELS14Figure 5 shows RD production volume by feedstock between 2010 and 2022.As can be seen,RD production growth has been s

76、trong over the past decade and has accelerated since 2019.Unlike BD,RD meets the ASTM D975 specification for petroleum diesel(i.e.,the two fuels are both predominantly hydrocarbons with similar bulk properties),so it is considered a drop-in fuel and can be blended,transported,and even co-processed w

77、ith petroleum diesel.RDs drop-in status enables much larger volumes to be blended in markets such as California that provide greater incentives to blend renewable fuels to reduce greenhouse gas(GHG)emissions from transportation fuels.The increase in RD production facilities has resulted in competiti

78、on with BD producers for feedstocks,which has caused BD production to decline since 2016(Figure 4).FOG is the most common feedstock used to produce RD due to its low lifecycle carbon intensity(CI)as assessed under low-carbon fuel(LCF)programs in California,Oregon,and Washington;this low CI score inc

79、reases the value of the RD.The“all others”feedstocks lumped together in Figure 5 include canola,corn,cottonseed,and palm oils.7 With the growth in RD production,these other feedstocks are used to fill the new production facilities when FOG supply falls short.This trend will continue as additional RD

80、 facilities come online over the next year.7 Palm oilderived fuels are specifically excluded from Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 incentive programs.State LCF programs do not prohibit palm but assign it a CI high enough to strongly discourage its use.The RFS does not prohibit palm,but palm BD only q

81、ualifies for D6 renewable identification numbers.Additionally,the less-favorable cold-flow properties of palm-based BD and RD make it a technically less-desirable feedstock,particularly in colder weather.2010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022RD volumes,million gallons DIESEL POOLGASOLI

82、NE POOL$54,568$69,262200,000 MILES(average US electricity mix)19,000 MILES(states with low carbon electricity)20082010200920112014201320152012201620172018 Efficient ICE vehicleDiesel ICEDiesel hybrid(4.8 kWh)Diesel PHEV(38 kWh)BEV(345 kWh)Diesel ICEDiesel PHEV(38 kWh)BEV(Optare)(92 kWh)BEV(Wrightbus

83、)(150 kWh)BEV(BYD)(324 kWh)26.629.232.835.839.441.439.941.241.311%05001,0001,5002,000Source:USDA|Quick StatsSoybean OilOils/Fats/GreasesFIGURE 5.U.S.RD PRODUCTION VOLUMES BY FEEDSTOCK(20102022)All OthersTRANSPORTATION ENERGY INSTITUTE|BALANCING THE BENEFITS OF BIOFUELS151.3 VOLUMES OF FEEDSTOCK UTIL

84、IZEDFeedstock usage in the production of ethanol is explained using USDA statistics.8 In 2022,U.S.production of ethanol was 15.3 billion gallons from 5.15 billion bushels of corn,which means that 2.95 gallons of ethanol were produced per bushel of corn(approximately 105 gallons per ton).These data a

85、lso show that 37.6%of the corn produced in the U.S.was used to produce ethanol,and ethanol made up 10.2%of all fuel used in gasoline vehicles in 2022.The other most common sources of ethanol production are various feedstocks from the production of sugar.One ton of molasses(a by-product of sugarcane

86、and sugar beet processing)yields about 69.4 gallons of ethanol,one ton of raw sugar yields 135.4 gallons,and one ton of refined sugar yields about 141 gallons of ethanol.9 8 USDA|U.S.Bioenergy Statistics,July 20239 Maria Gerveni et al.|Renewable diesel and biodiesel feedstock trends over 2011202210

87、Maria Gerveni et al.|Renewable diesel and biodiesel feedstock trends over 20112022Feedstock consumption in the production of BD and RD is detailed by FarmDoc Daily.10 For BD,7.55 pounds of soybean oil or 7.5 pounds of trap grease is used to produce one gallon(approximately 265267 gallons per ton).Fo

88、r RD,an average of 8.125 pounds of feedstock is used to produce one gallon(approximately 246 gallons per ton).Figure 6 presents annual estimates of implied total feedstock usage from 2011 through 2022 for RD and BD production,and Figure 7 shows the quantity of feedstocks used to produce BD and RD ov

89、er the same time frame.As can be seen,there is a notable increase in the use of two of the lowest-carbon feedstocks(yellow grease and tallow)in 2021 and 2022;these feedstocks were diverted from other uses because of the value added to the products by Californias Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS)progra

90、m.LOREM IPSUM201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022Billion pounds201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022Billion poundsDIESEL POOLGASOLINE POOL$54,568$69,262200,000 MILES(average US electricity mix)19,000 MILES(states with low carbon electricity)200820102009201120142013201520122016

91、20172018 Efficient ICE vehicleDiesel ICEDiesel hybrid(4.8 kWh)Diesel PHEV(38 kWh)BEV(345 kWh)Diesel ICEDiesel PHEV(38 kWh)BEV(Optare)(92 kWh)BEV(Wrightbus)(150 kWh)BEV(BYD)(324 kWh)26.629.232.835.839.441.439.941.241.311%0300600900120015000510152025201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022Bill

92、ion pounds201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022Billion poundsDIESEL POOLGASOLINE POOL26.629.232.835.839.441.439.941.241.311%0300600900120015000510152025Source:EIASource:EIABiodieselSoybean OilCanola OilRenewable dieselYellow greaseTallowFIGURE 6.IMPLIED FEEDSTOCK USAGE TO PRODUCE U.S.RD A

93、ND BD(20112022)FIGURE 7.FEEDSTOCK USED TO PRODUCE U.S.RD AND BD(20112022)Corn oilAll otherTRANSPORTATION ENERGY INSTITUTE|BALANCING THE BENEFITS OF BIOFUELS161.4 CO-PRODUCTS OF BIOFUELS PRODUCTIONThe production of biofuels results in co-productsalso referred to as by-products or ancillary commercial

94、 productsthat can be used in other applications.The primary co-products from ethanol production include distillers grains,11 oil,and carbon dioxide(CO2),each of which can be captured as listed in Figure 8.The non-food-grade corn oil produced at dry mill ethanol plants is primarily utilized as a feed

95、stock for BD and RD production.Most distillers grains are consumed by cattle(74%),while the rest is fed to swine(18%)and poultry(7%).In addition to distillers grains,corn gluten feed and corn gluten meal12 are other co-products sold into the meat production industry.The quantities of these co-produc

96、ts since 2000 are shown in Figure 9.13 In the absence of corn ethanol production,replacing the protein contributed by the 35.1 million metric tons of dried distillers grains with solubles(DDGS)demand in the U.S.in 202214 would require growing 15 million additional acres of soybeans and 5 million add

97、itional acres of corn(based on average U.S.soybean yields of 49.5 bushels per acre and corn yields of 173.3 bushels per acre in 2022).15 11 Distillers grains contain all the protein and fiber content of the corn kernel that remain after the cornstarch is converted to ethanol and the oil is separated

98、 out as a separately marketed product.As a concentrated source of protein and fiber,distillers grains represent a high-value feedstock,particularly for ruminant species such as cattle.12 Corn gluten feed and corn gluten meal are co-products produced at wet mill ethanol plants.Similar to dried distil

99、lers grains with solubles,they concentrate the protein and fiber from the corn kernel,while the starch is converted to ethanol and the oil is recovered for food use.13 Renewable Fuels Association|Ethanol Co-products14 USDA|U.S.Bioenergy Statistics,January 202415 USDA|Quick StatsFIGURE 8.CO-PRODUCTS

100、FROM ETHANOL PRODUCTION SYSTEM WEIGHT BREAKDOWNSTotal Cost of OwnershipRicardo input to be used to define weight inputUTILITY DISTRIBUTION NETWORKService connectionSupply infrastructureCharger equipmentMETERCONDUCTOR(BORING/TRENCHING)EV CHARGEREVPANELUTILITY PAD-MOUNTED TRANSFORMERSYSTEM LEVEL GHGBE

101、VPowertrainRaw material to finished productON AVERAGE,1 BUSHELOF CORN(56 POUNDS)PROCESSED BY A DRY MILLETHANOLBIOREFINERYPRODUCES:2.9GALLONS14.8POUNDS0.9POUNDS16POUNDSDENATUREDFUEL ETHANOLDISTILLERS GRAINS ANIMAL FEED(10%moisture)DISTILLERS CORNOILCAPTURED BIOGENIC CARBON DIOXIDE*In 2023,ethanol bio

102、refineries captured roughly 2.6 million tons of CO2,which was utilized for dry ice production,ICEVHEVBEVRaw material tofinished productPowertrain manufacturing and assemblyVehicle manufacturing and assemblyUTILITY INCENTIVEPOWERTRAINUtility/contribution in aid of constructionHost site/third-party in

103、vestmentUtility incentive paymentsIncreasing vehicle sizeINPUTSLandSeedFuelWaterFertilizerFARMINGPlantingGrowingHarvestingSource:Renewable Fuels Association|Ethanol Co-Products*Approximately 30%of U.S.dry mills capture CO2 from fermentation.TRANSPORTATION ENERGY INSTITUTE|BALANCING THE BENEFITS OF B

104、IOFUELS17The primary co-product from BD production is glycerin,of which about 10 pounds is produced for every 100 pounds(or 13.6 gallons)of BD.Glycerin is a sugar commonly used in the manufacture of pharmaceuticals and cosmetics.16RD can be produced by many different technologies,but by far the most

105、 prominent is the traditional hydrotreating process used in petroleum refineries.The predominant co-products from RD production are renewable propane,renewable butane,RN,and SAF.When these co-products are used for transportation in locations that have LCF programs,they generate credits with signific

106、ant value.However,with the exception of SAF,not many vehicles can operate on these fuels;hence,RD producers often use these co-products for energy in the production plant to lower the CI of their primary RD product.17SAF can remain in the finished RD product but can also be separated from it via fra

107、ctionation so that it can be used to fuel jet airplanes.Most SAF today is not separated from RD because it has more value replacing diesel than jet fuel,but this is beginning to change as some jurisdictions are implementing substantial tax credits to support the decarbonization of air travel.16 U.S.

108、Department of Energy,Alternative Fuels Data Center|Biodiesel Production and Distribution17 Per the Alternative Fuels Data Center,other SAF production pathways include several via Fischer-Tropsch processes,microbial conversion processes,and conversion of alcohols.FIGURE 9.ANIMAL FEEDSTOCK CO-PRODUCTS

109、 FROM U.S.ETHANOL PRODUCTION(20002021)2000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021*Thousand metric tonsDIESEL POOLGASOLINE POOL$54,568$69,262200,000 MILES(average US electricity mix)19,000 MILES(states with low carbon electricity)20082010200920112014201320

110、152012201620172018 Efficient ICE vehicleDiesel ICEDiesel hybrid(4.8 kWh)Diesel PHEV(38 kWh)BEV(345 kWh)Diesel ICEDiesel PHEV(38 kWh)BEV(Optare)(92 kWh)BEV(Wrightbus)(150 kWh)BEV(BYD)(324 kWh)26.629.232.835.839.441.439.941.241.311%45,00040,00035,00030,00025,00020,00015,00010,0005,0000Source:Renewable

111、 Fuels Association;USDA Note:All co-products converted to 10 percent moisture basis.*EstimatedDistillers grainsCorn gluten feedAll Corn gluten mealTRANSPORTATION ENERGY INSTITUTE|BALANCING THE BENEFITS OF BIOFUELS182.1 ACREAGE USED FOR PRODUCTION OF BIOFUEL FEEDSTOCKS IN THE U.S.A large share of bio

112、fuels produced in the U.S.use agricultural cropsprimarily corn(used for ethanol)and soybeans and canola(both used for BD,RD,and SAF)as feedstocks.For this report,the quantities of each of these feedstocks is estimated from U.S.Environmental Protection Agency(EPA)Moderated Transaction System data on

113、the annual generation of RFS credits(known as renewable identification 18 EPA|RINs Generated Transactions,Feedstock Summary Report19 Calculated from U.S.Bioenergy Statistics,published quarterly by USDA Economic Research Service.20 USDA|Quick Stats21 These data,obtained from the January 2024 edition

114、of USDAs quarterly U.S.Bioenergy Statistics report,rely on data from the U.S.Energy Information Administration.numbers,or RINs)by feedstock18 and USDA data on annual ethanol yields from corn.19 The acreage required to produce these crops is estimated based on annual yield data as published by USDA.2

115、0 Each of these feedstocks has unique attributes,summarized in the subsections that follow.As the crop acreage allocations covered in this report rely on EPAs data on RIN generation,we first compare that data for BD and RD with USDAs data on annual supply(production plus imports)of these fuels.21 SE

116、CTION 2.Feedstock ProductionTRANSPORTATION ENERGY INSTITUTE|BALANCING THE BENEFITS OF BIOFUELSTRANSPORTATION ENERGY INSTITUTE|BALANCING THE BENEFITS OF BIOFUELS19Figure 10 compares these two data sources.For BD data,the two sources appear to track very well,especially since 2014.For RD data,however,

117、the EPA data consistently shows larger volumes than the USDA data;this difference appears to have narrowed since 2020.Stillwater believes that the EPA data represents an accurate(potentially conservative for RD)source for estimating crop acreage requirements for production of these fuels.20102011201

118、22013201420152016201720182019202020212022Million gallons 26.629.232.835.839.441.439.941.241.311%050001000150020002500Biodiesel Production+ImportsRenewable Diesel Production+Imports$54,568$69,262200,000 MILES(average US electricity mix)19,000 MILES(states with low carbon electricity)19,000 MILES(stat

119、es with low carbon electricity)2010200920112014201320152012201620172018 Efficient ICE vehicleSources:USDA;EPA;Stillwater analysisFIGURE 10.COMPARISON OF EPA AND USDA DATA FOR U.S.SUPPLY OF BD AND RD(20102022)EPA BDEPA RDUSDA EPA BDUSDA EPA RD19TRANSPORTATION ENERGY INSTITUTE|BALANCING THE BENEFITS O

120、F BIOFUELS202.1.1 CORNAbout 98%of all U.S.fuel-grade ethanol production is derived from corn grain.Growth in overall U.S.corn acreage has been slower than implied by the growth in U.S.ethanol production.Growing demand for U.S.corn has led to steady improvements in agricultural practices and seeds;as

121、 a result,per-acre yields of corn have grown steadily,from 152.6 bushels22 per acre in 2010 to 173.3 bushels per acre in 2022;similarly,the yield of ethanol per bushel of corn has grown from 2.76 gallons per bushel in 2010 to 2.96 gallons per bushel in 2023.In addition,the distillers grains co-produ

122、ct of corn ethanol,amounting to about 19 pounds for every 56-pound bushel of corn used for ethanol production,is utilized as a high-protein animal feed,displacing 22 One bushel of corn is 56 pounds.23 Other major BD feedstocks are canola oil,tallow,distillers corn oil,and used cooking oil.corn,soybe

123、an meal,and other grains in livestock feed rations.Corn acreage required to supply fuel-grade ethanol production in the U.S.has increased from 15.9 million acres in 2010 to 27.8 million acres in 2022;even with this large increase in corn demand for ethanol,corn production available for all other use

124、s declined by only 4.4%over this period.2.1.2 SOYBEANSSoybean oil,derived from crushing whole soybeans to produce about 20%soybean oil and 80%soybean meal,is the largest single feedstock utilized for BD and RD production and represents about 35%40%of total U.S.production of these fuels.23 Per-acre y

125、ields of soybeans have steadily grown from 43.5 20TRANSPORTATION ENERGY INSTITUTE|BALANCING THE BENEFITS OF BIOFUELS21bushels per acre in 2010 to 49.5 bushels per acre in 2022.24The soybean meal co-product is a major source of high-protein animal feed and,historically,has been the primary source of

126、value for growing soybeans.Soybean acreage required to supply the soybean oil used for U.S.BD and RD production has increased from 1.3 million acres in 2010 to 15.9 million acres in 2022.Over this period,all non-biofuel uses of U.S.soybean oil production also increased by 2.3%;about 75%of this overa

127、ll demand increase was supplied by increased U.S.soybean oil production,with the remainder coming from reduced U.S.soybean oil exports.One often-cited concern with the growth of U.S.biofuel demand is that it would divert soybean oil from export markets,thereby resulting in the need 24 One bushel of

128、soybeans is 60 pounds.to increase soybean cultivation in other markets,driving undesirable changes in land use.While nearly all soybean oil demand in the U.S.is supplied from domestic production,the most recent estimates from USDA for the 2023/24 marketing year project the U.S.to be a small net impo

129、rter of soybean oil.Figure 11 shows the annual U.S.soybean oil supply and demand balance since the 2009/10 marketing year.It can be seen that U.S.exports(the downward green bars)decreased in the 2011/12 marketing year,held relatively stable through the 2021/22 marketing year,and are now expected to

130、nearly disappear in 2022/23 and 2023/24.This trend occurs even as U.S.soybean oil production has grown by an average 2.3%per year over the same time period.LOREM IPSUM2009/102010/112011/122012/132013/142014/152015/162016/172017/182018/192019/202020/212021/222022/23 EST2023/24 PROJMillion metric tons

131、DIESEL POOLGASOLINE POOLU.S.MARKETING YEAR(SEPT 1-AUG 31)$54,568$69,262200,000 MILES(average US electricity mix)19,000 MILES(states with low carbon electricity)20082010200920112014201320152012201620172018 Efficient ICE vehicleDiesel ICEDiesel hybrid(4.8 kWh)Diesel PHEV(38 kWh)BEV(345 kWh)Diesel ICED

132、iesel PHEV(38 kWh)BEV(Optare)(92 kWh)BEV(Wrightbus)(150 kWh)BEV(BYD)(324 kWh)11%03691215-3Source:USDA WASDE;Stillwater analysisProductionImportsFIGURE 11.ANNUAL U.S.SOYBEAN OIL SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCEExportsImplied demandNet supplyTRANSPORTATION ENERGY INSTITUTE|BALANCING THE BENEFITS OF BIOFUELS22A m

133、ore complete picture of U.S.soybean oil exports,however,also requires consideration of U.S.exports of whole soybeans,because the purchasers of those soybeans,like their U.S.counterparts,go on to crush nearly all those soybeans to produce soybean meal and soybean oil.Figure 12 places this into perspe

134、ctive,comparing annual U.S.soybean oil exports to the oil content(20%by weight)of U.S.exports of whole soybeans.It can be seen that far more soybean oil is derived from U.S.exports of whole soybeans than from U.S.exports of soybean oil and that the growth in U.S.whole soybean exports roughly compens

135、ates for reduced U.S.soybean oil exports since the start of the RFS.LOREM IPSUM2009/102010/112011/122012/132013/142014/152015/162016/172017/182018/192019/202020/212021/222022/23 EST2023/24 PROJMillion metric tonsDIESEL POOLGASOLINE POOLU.S.MARKETING YEAR(SEPT 1-AUG 31)$54,568$69,262200,000 MILES(ave

136、rage US electricity mix)19,000 MILES(states with low carbon electricity)20082010200920112014201320152012201620172018 Efficient ICE vehicleDiesel ICEDiesel hybrid(4.8 kWh)Diesel PHEV(38 kWh)BEV(345 kWh)Diesel ICEDiesel PHEV(38 kWh)BEV(Optare)(92 kWh)BEV(Wrightbus)(150 kWh)BEV(BYD)(324 kWh)11%03691215

137、Source:USDA WASDE;Stillwater analysisSoybean oil exports(mMT)Oil content of soybean exports(mMT)FIGURE 12.U.S.MARKETING YEAR EXPORTS OF SOYBEAN OIL AND THE OIL CONTENT OF EXPORTED WHOLE SOYBEANS22TRANSPORTATION ENERGY INSTITUTE|BALANCING THE BENEFITS OF BIOFUELS23Additional perspective on U.S.soybea

138、n oil exports is provided by looking at overall global trade in soybean oil,which has grown by an average of 1.7%per year since the 2009/10 marketing year.As can be seen in Figure 13,the U.S.share of this growing trade has diminished as other exportersnotably Brazil and the EUhave rapidly grown thei

139、r soybean oil exports,and Argentina continues to account for 40%50%of annual global trade.The implications of reduced U.S.soybean oil exports are further complicated by the fact that soybean oil is just one of the major vegetable oils(together with canola/rapeseed oil,sunflower oil,palm oil,and seve

140、ral other lower-volume oils)used in the human food supply.These different oils are near substitutes for many food applications and,thus,a full understanding of supply and demand factors needs to encompass all these oils,a task beyond the scope of this report.Importantly,all these vegetable oils,with

141、 the exception of palm oil,are by-products of crops grown primarily for their high-protein meals.As oil palms are grown exclusively for their oil,they are the default crop for closing any global supply-demand imbalances.The largest producers of palm oil are Malaysia and Indonesia,and a major environ

142、mental concern is that growth in palm oil production requires cultivation of rainforest and peat lands in those countries,a conversion that is seen as releasing large volumes of sequestered carbon and placing endangered species at risk of habitat loss.Accordingly,diversion of soybean oil from food t

143、o biofuel usage raises concerns about that soybean oil being replaced in the food supply by increased production of palm oil.The main counterpoint to that concern is that,to date,diversion of U.S.soybean oil production to biofuels applications has been largely addressed by the expanding productivity

144、 of global soybean growers,largely on existing croplands.2009/102010/112011/122012/132013/142014/152015/162016/172017/182018/192019/202020/212021/222022/23 EST2023/24 PROJGlobal soybean oil trade(million MT)U.S.share of global tradeU.S.MARKETING YEAR(SEPT 1-AUG 31)036912150%4%8%12%16%20%24%28%Source

145、:USDA WASDE;Stillwater analysisU.S.ArgentinaFIGURE 13.MAJOR GLOBAL SOYBEAN OIL EXPORTERS AND U.S.MARKET SHAREBrazilEUOtherImplied demandTRANSPORTATION ENERGY INSTITUTE|BALANCING THE BENEFITS OF BIOFUELS242.1.3 GRAIN SORGHUMGrain sorghum(also known as milo)is used as feedstock for less than 1%of all

146、U.S.fuel-grade ethanol production;the amount varies from year to year depending on the relative economics of processing grain sorghum as an alternative to corn at ethanol plants located in sorghum-growing regions of the U.S.25 This usage represents about 10%20%of the grain sorghum crop,with the rema

147、inder of the crop being primarily used as livestock feed in the U.S.and export markets.As is the case with corn ethanol,production of sorghum ethanol produces a high-protein distillers grains product that is a valuable livestock feed,offsetting demand for corn,soybean meal,and other grains.2.1.4 CAN

148、OLACanola oil,derived from crushing whole canola seeds to produce about 44%canola oil and 56%canola meal,is the second largest crop-based feedstock utilized for BD and RD production but represents only about 6%9%of total U.S.production of these fuels.26 Per-acre yields of canola have grown from 1,71

149、1 pounds(28.5 bushels)27 per acre in 2010 to 1,762 pounds(29.4 bushels)per acre in 2022.The canola meal co-product is a significant source of high-protein animal feed.Acreage required to supply the canola oil used for U.S.BD and RD production has increased from 52 thousand acres in 2010 to 2.5 milli

150、on acres in 2022.While EPA has approved the use of canola oil as a feedstock for BD for some time,its use as a feedstock for RD was only approved in December 2022.28 With this new approval,canola oil is expected to find increasing use in the rapidly growing RD segment.25 U.S.grain ethanol plants typ

151、ically draw all their feedstocks from within a 25-to 50-mile radius of the plant.In 2023,grain sorghum was grown in Colorado,Kansas,Nebraska,Oklahoma,South Dakota,and Texas.26 Other major BD feedstocks are canola oil,tallow,distillers corn oil,and used cooking oil.27 One bushel of canola is 60 pound

152、s.28 EPA|Canola Oil Pathways Final RulemakingTRANSPORTATION ENERGY INSTITUTE|BALANCING THE BENEFITS OF BIOFUELS252.1.5 SUMMARYThe annual gross estimated acres of these four crops(prior to adjustment for co-production of distillers grains from corn and grain sorghum and of meal from soybeans and cano

153、la)required to supply U.S.biofuels production since 2010 is presented in Figure 14.While it may be observed that biofuel feedstock acreage jumped sharply between 2010(the first year of the RFS229 program)and 2011,since then,the acreage requirement has been relatively steady,between 40 and 47 million

154、 acres per year(average 44.3 million acres).As a large portion of these gross feedstock volumes are returned to feed markets as meal(soybean and canola)or distillers grains(corn and grain sorghum),Figure 15 adjusts the volumes in Figure 14 to reflect the net acreage attributable to actual biofuel pr

155、oduction.Importantly,this net acreage calculation shows that acreage dedicated to biofuel production peaked at 28 million acres in 2012 and has held relatively steady between 22 and 25 million acres since then.29 The original RFS program was established by the Energy Policy Act of 2005.It was extens

156、ively amended and expanded by the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 to establish what is often referred to as RFS2.Colloquially,the term“RFS”is used to refer to both the original and the expanded programs.LOREM IPSUM2010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022DIESEL POOLGASOLINE P

157、OOLMillions of acres01020304050$54,568$69,262200,000 MILES(average US electricity mix)19,000 MILES(states with low carbon electricity)20082010200920112014201320152012201620172018 Efficient ICE vehicleDiesel ICEDiesel hybrid(4.8 kWh)Diesel PHEV(38 kWh)BEV(345 kWh)Diesel ICEDiesel PHEV(38 kWh)BEV(Opta

158、re)(92 kWh)BEV(Wrightbus)(150 kWh)BEV(BYD)(324 kWh)26.629.232.835.839.441.439.941.241.311%Sources:USDA;Stillwater analysisCanolaGrain sorghumSoybeansFIGURE 15.U.S.CROP NET ACREAGE USED FOR BIOFUEL PRODUCTION(20102022)CornLOREM IPSUM2010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022Millions of acre

159、s$54,568$69,262200,000 MILES(average US electricity mix)19,000 MILES(states with low carbon electricity)20082010200920112014201320152012201620172018 Efficient ICE vehicleDiesel ICEDiesel hybrid(4.8 kWh)Diesel PHEV(38 kWh)BEV(345 kWh)Diesel ICEDiesel PHEV(38 kWh)BEV(Optare)(92 kWh)BEV(Wrightbus)(150

160、kWh)BEV(BYD)(324 kWh)26.629.232.835.839.441.439.941.241.311%01020304050Sources:USDA;Stillwater analysisCanolaGrain sorghumSoybeansFIGURE 14.U.S.CROP GROSS ACREAGE USED FOR BIOFUEL PRODUCTION(20102022)CornTRANSPORTATION ENERGY INSTITUTE|BALANCING THE BENEFITS OF BIOFUELS262.2 TOTAL U.S.AGRICULTURAL C

161、ROP ACRESUSDA reports U.S.crop acreage by crop with a report issued annually in June.30 For purposes of this analysis we review USDAs annual acreage reports from June 2000 through June 2023;this time frame can be divided into the pre-RFS period(20002007)and the RFS period(20082023).31 These data for

162、 the three major row crops(wheat,corn,and soybeans),hay,and all other crops are presented as stacked columns in Figure 16,with U.S.Energy Information Administration(EIA)data on U.S.annual fuel-grade ethanol production32 overlayed as a black line.Data on the disposition of U.S.crops is obtained from

163、USDAs World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates(WASDE)report,published monthly.33 30 USDA|Acreage Report,June 30,202331 The legislation establishing the RFS2 program was enacted in December 2007,so the crops planted in the spring of 2008 represent the first annual cycle during which farmers wer

164、e considering RFS2 demands in their planting decisions.32 EIA|Petroleum&Other Liquids Report,Oxygenate Production33 USDA|World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023Acres planted(millions)U.S.ethanol an

165、d biodiesel production(million gal)050010015020025030035005,00010,00015,00011%Source:USDA WASDE;Stillwater analysisCornSoyFIGURE 16.ANNUAL U.S.CROP ACREAGE AND FUEL-GRADE ETHANOL PRODUCTION(20002023)WheatHayAll OtherEthanol Production(RHS)Biodiesel Production(RHS)TRANSPORTATION ENERGY INSTITUTE|BALA

166、NCING THE BENEFITS OF BIOFUELS27Some key observations concerning these data:It is necessary to look at long-term trends in crop acreage,as there is significant year-to-year variation due to factors such as inventory levels,weather,and anticipated domestic and international market demands.Total U.S.c

167、rop acreage has generally been on a decline,largely due to steadily increasing per-acre yields of key crops.The largest acreage between 2000 and 2023 was 328 million acres planted in 2000,with a low of 303 million acres planted in 2019.The average over these years is 319 million acres,with the pre-R

168、FS2 years averaging 322 million acres and the post-RFS2 years averaging 318 million acres.While total acreage has been declining,the mix of agricultural demand is dynamic,with some acres being permanently removed from agriculture each year due to development for other uses and some new acreage comin

169、g into agriculture each year.Importantly,RFS regulations limit crop-based feedstocks to those grown on existing agricultural land as of December 19,2007.34 As this period has seen increases in domestic non-biofuel demands and increased exports of agricultural products,the conversion of new acres to

170、crop production cannot simply be attributed to biofuel feedstock demands alone.35 Since 2007,the U.S.government has reduced crop land in the Conservation Reserve Program(CRP)by approximately 14 million acres.Much of this land has been put back into production for a variety of crops,including biofuel

171、 feedstocks.34 40 CFR 80.140135 For purposes of enforcement,EPA requires that U.S.crops used as biofuel feedstock be grown on compliant land.For the retrospective analyses done for the Third Triennial Report to Congress covering the environmental impacts of biofuels,EPA determined that 56%of the inc

172、rease in corn and soy acres came from land previously used for other crops,13%from pastureland,20%from noncultivated cropland,and 11%from Conservation Reserve Program acres.The report does not attempt to attribute increased corn and soy acres to biofuels use versus other demands.In making these dete

173、rminations,EPA relied on data from USDA and the U.S.Geological Survey.Corn acreage has increased since the start of RFS2,from an average of 81 million acres for 20002007 to an average of nearly 91 million acres since 2008.Notably,this increase of nearly 10 million acres is less than the 12 million a

174、cres required to support increased ethanol production while growing U.S.corn exports and holding corn grain availability constant.Soybean acreage has also increased since the start of RFS2,from an average of nearly 73 million acres for 20002007 to an average of slightly less than 82 million acres si

175、nce 2008.More than half of this increase has been used to supply a doubling of U.S.soybean exports since 2000,while domestic crushing of soybeans for soybean oil production has grown by over 50%,with all the increase utilized as biofuel feedstock,while other uses,including use as food,has remained n

176、early flat.About 60%of the increase in corn and soybean acreage came from reduced wheat acreage,with domestic use and exports of U.S.wheat production declining slightly.The other 40%of the increase in corn and soybean acreage came from reduced hay acreage,as growing production of distillers grains a

177、nd soybean meal was increasingly used in domestic and export livestock feed markets.U.S.fuel-grade ethanol production grew rapidly from 6.2 billion gallons in 2007 to 13.9 billion gallons in 2011,before growth began to slow with saturation of the U.S.gasoline market.Production continued to grow at a

178、 slower pace to a record of 16.2 billion gallons in 2018,largely driven by growing demand in export markets.Production was 15.4 billion gallons in 2022.TRANSPORTATION ENERGY INSTITUTE|BALANCING THE BENEFITS OF BIOFUELS28The largest acreage between 2000 and 2023 was 328 million acres planted in 2000,

179、with a low of 303 million acres planted in 2019.The average over these years is 319 million acres,with the pre-RFS2 years averaging 322 million acres and the post-RFS2 years averaging 318 million acres.TRANSPORTATION ENERGY INSTITUTE|BALANCING THE BENEFITS OF BIOFUELSTRANSPORTATION ENERGY INSTITUTE|

180、BALANCING THE BENEFITS OF BIOFUELS292.3 FEEDSTOCK YIELDSThe per-acre yields of each of the four biofuel feedstocks covered in section 2.1 have been growing steadily over time;the cumulative effect of these trends is that the supply of these feedstocks has grown more rapidly than the acreage dedicate

181、d to these crops.Key factors contributing to this steady growth in yields are regular improvements in seeds as well as adoption of improved agronomic practices by the many individual farmers growing these crops.While the underlying trend in yields for each of these crops is upward,the annual data,as

182、 shown in Figure 17,varies significantly from year to year.In Figure 17 the solid lines with markers are the annual yields reported by USDA,36 and the dashed lines represent the long-term yield trend for each crop.These data are also tabulated in Table 1.36 USDA|Quick StatsThe yearly yield variabili

183、ty is due to weather conditions(variation in temperature and rainfall patterns from year to year and storm events)and differences in the geographic mix of the land used to grow these crops.An additional factor can be changes in the cost of fertilizers and other inputs,which,in combination with antic

184、ipated crop prices,may influence the extent to which these treatments are used to enhance yields.Importantly,planting of sorghum and canola is much more geographically concentrated than that of corn and soybeans;as a result,local weather conditions result in greater variability in the yield trends f

185、or sorghum and canola.Figures 1821 present production by county for corn,sorghum,and soybeans in 2022 and for canola in 2018 as reported by USDA.20002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022Yields(bushels per acre)$54,568$69,262200,000 MILES(average US

186、electricity mix)19,000 MILES(states with low carbon electricity)20082010200920112014201320152012201620172018 Efficient ICE vehicleDiesel ICEDiesel hybrid(4.8 kWh)Diesel PHEV(38 kWh)BEV(345 kWh)Diesel ICEDiesel PHEV(38 kWh)BEV(Optare)(92 kWh)BEV(Wrightbus)(150 kWh)BEV(BYD)(324 kWh)26.629.232.835.839.

187、441.439.941.241.311%050100150200FIGURE 17.ANNUAL YIELDS FOR MAJOR U.S.BIOFUEL FEEDSTOCKS(20002022)Sources:USDA;Stillwater analysisCornLinear(Corn)SorghumLinear(Sorghum)SoybeansLinear(Soybeans)CanolaLinear(Canola)TRANSPORTATION ENERGY INSTITUTE|BALANCING THE BENEFITS OF BIOFUELS30TABLE 1.ANNUAL YIELD

188、S FOR MAJOR U.S.BIOFUEL FEEDSTOCKS(20002022)YEARCORN(bu/ac)GRAIN SORGHUM(bu/ac)SOYBEANS(bu/ac)CANOLA(bu/ac)2000136.960.938.122.22001138.259.939.622.92002129.350.638.020.02003142.252.733.923.62004160.369.642.227.02005147.968.543.123.72006149.156.142.922.82007150.773.241.720.62008153.365.139.724.42009

189、164.469.444.030.22010152.671.943.528.52011146.854.042.024.72012123.149.640.023.22013158.159.644.029.02014171.067.647.526.82015168.476.048.028.02016174.677.951.930.42017176.671.749.325.42018176.472.150.631.02019167.573.047.429.72020171.473.251.032.22021176.769.051.721.72022173.341.149.529.4Sources:US

190、DA;Stillwater analysis Units:bushels/acre(bu/ac)30TRANSPORTATION ENERGY INSTITUTE|BALANCING THE BENEFITS OF BIOFUELS31Source:USDA,National Agricultural Statistics ServiceSource:USDA,National Agricultural Statistics Service BushelsNot Estimated 1,000,0001,000,0004,999,999 5,000,0009,999,999 10,000,00

191、019,999,999 20,000,00029,999,999 30,000,000+BushelsNot Estimated 250,000250,000499,999 500,000999,999 1,000,0001,999,999 2,000,0002,999,999 3,000,000+FIGURE 18.U.S.CORN PRODUCTION BY COUNTY(2022)FIGURE 19.U.S.SORGHUM PRODUCTION BY COUNTY(2022)BushelsNot Estimated 1,000,0001,000,0004,999,999 5,000,00

192、09,999,999 10,000,00019,999,999 20,000,00029,999,999 30,000,000+BushelsNot Estimated 250,000250,000499,999 500,000999,999 1,000,0001,999,999 2,000,0002,999,999 3,000,000+TRANSPORTATION ENERGY INSTITUTE|BALANCING THE BENEFITS OF BIOFUELS32Source:USDA,National Agricultural Statistics ServiceSource:USD

193、A,National Agricultural Statistics Service%Percentage value indicates percent of national production.BushelsNot Estimated 250,000250,000749,999 750,0001,999,999 2,000,0003,999,999 4,000,0007,999,999 8,000,000+PoundsNot Estimated 10,000,00010,000,00024,999,999 25,000,00099,999,999 100,000,000159,999,

194、999 160,000,000+FIGURE 20.U.S.SOYBEAN PRODUCTION BY COUNTY(2022)FIGURE 21.U.S.CANOLA PRODUCTION BY COUNTY(2018)BushelsNot Estimated 250,000250,000749,999 750,0001,999,999 2,000,0003,999,999 4,000,0007,999,999 8,000,000+PoundsNot Estimated 10,000,00010,000,00024,999,999 25,000,00099,999,999 100,000,0

195、00159,999,999 160,000,000+$North Dakota96%Production 5-year average1,000 kg(2015-2019)TRANSPORTATION ENERGY INSTITUTE|BALANCING THE BENEFITS OF BIOFUELS332.4 BIOFUEL YIELDS FROM FEEDSTOCKSBased on USDA data,the efficiency of U.S.ethanol plants at converting corn into ethanol has increased steadily s

196、ince at least 2010.These increases are attributable to improvements in ethanol plant designs and operating practices developed through experience as well as regular improvements in the efficiency of the enzymes used to access the starch contained in the corn feedstock and convert it to fermentable s

197、ugars.As seen in Figure 22,the observed yields at U.S.corn ethanol plants have grown from 2.76 gallons of ethanol per bushel of corn in 2010 to 2.96 gallons per bushel in 2023.This steady rate of improvement,0.016 gallons per bushel per year as indicated by the dashed line,directly improves the CI o

198、f ethanol,as fewer inputs are required for each gallon produced.This trend shows no sign of leveling off but will ultimately be constrained by a theoretical maximum of about 3.0 gallons per bushel set by the starch content of the corn.37 As BD production employs a diverse mix of feed-stocks includin

199、g soybean oil,canola oil,distillers37 Based on 56 pounds per bushel of corn and a 62%by weight starch content(Penn State|Composition of Corn and Yield of Ethanol from Corn).This limit does not consider the ability to produce incremental ethanol from conversion of the corn kernel fiber,a technology w

200、hich is slowly gaining use in the U.S.38 ISU|Historical Biofuel Operating Margins corn oil,inedible tallow,and used cooking oil(UCO),and this mix varies depending on competing supply-demand and economic factors,there is not a comparable historical dataset on the evolution of BD yields and conversion

201、 efficiencies.Iowa State University(ISU)maintains a historical model for soybean oil BD production via the continuous flow process used at larger-scale plants and estimates an average yield of 1 gallon of BD(and 1.04 pounds of glycerin)produced from 7.6 pounds of soybean oil.38 The 2022 Greenhouse G

202、ases,Regulated Emissions,and Energy Use in Transportation(GREET)model estimates that Honeywell UOPs RD process yields 1 pound of RD for every 1.26 pounds of vegetable oil feed.y=0.016x-28.969R=0.98120102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023U.S.average corn ethanol yield(gallons per bus

203、hel)$54,568$69,262200,000 MILES(average US electricity mix)19,000 MILES(states with low carbon electricity)20082010200920112014201320152012201620172018 Efficient ICE vehicleDiesel ICEDiesel hybrid(4.8 kWh)Diesel PHEV(38 kWh)BEV(345 kWh)Diesel ICEDiesel PHEV(38 kWh)BEV(Optare)(92 kWh)BEV(Wrightbus)(1

204、50 kWh)BEV(BYD)(324 kWh)26.629.232.835.839.441.439.941.241.311%2.53.0FIGURE 22.AVERAGE ETHANOL YIELD AT U.S.CORN ETHANOL PLANTS(20102023)Sources:USDA;Stillwater analysisTRANSPORTATION ENERGY INSTITUTE|BALANCING THE BENEFITS OF BIOFUELS34USDA tracks the yield of soybean oil from soybeans crushed in t

205、he U.S.on a market-year basis.As shown in Figure 23,recovery of soybean oil from soybeans has generally grown from 11.30 pounds per bushel in the 2000/01 market year to a projected 11.75 pounds per bushel in the 2023/24 market year to date.While the trend line shows yield increasing by an average of

206、 0.021 pounds per bushel per year,there is substantial year-to-year variation;this is attributable to the oil content of seeds varying somewhat based on growing conditions that can vary each year.While soybeans have historically been grown for the meal,with the oil being a lower-value by-product,39

207、the strong growth in biofuels demand has started to shift the balance to an extent that the soybean oil is becoming the more valuable product;as this trend continues,seed companies will continue to focus on developing soybean varieties with higher oil contents.In addition to increasing oil yield thr

208、ough genetics,farmers and industry are actively seeking to increase biomass availability through the growth and harvest of winter annual oilseeds.These crops,which are generally from the Brassicaceae family,include pennycress,camelina,carinata,and winter 39 In fact,the biodiesel industry was initial

209、ly developed in order to create an outlet for excess soybean oil.canola.Each of these four crops has the potential to yield a significant additional amount of oil per acre when grown over winter between traditional corn and soybeans.Each of these crops is at its own stage of commercialization and wi

210、ll likely be targeted in different regions of the country.As of this writing,these volumes are negligible.RD has not been produced at scale via hydrogenation of oils for as long as ethanol and BD,so advances in the technology continue to be developed.These advances seek to increase yields of valuabl

211、e productsRD and SAFwhile shifting production away from less valuable co-productsrenewable propane,renewable butane,and RN.Since changing operating conditions to maximize SAF production over RD production generally increases the output of these lighter co-products,new catalysts are being developed t

212、o reduce this tendency.The data on these new technologies are generally kept confidential by their providers.For this report,we utilize yields of RD based on the Honeywell UOP process as reported in the 2022 GREET model.y=0.021x+11.249R=0.5532000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 20

213、07/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 Soybean oil yield from soybean crushing(pounds per bushel)$54,568$69,262200,000 MILES(average US electricity mix)19,000 MILES(states with low carbon electricity)20082

214、010200920112014201320152012201620172018 Efficient ICE vehicleDiesel ICEDiesel hybrid(4.8 kWh)Diesel PHEV(38 kWh)BEV(345 kWh)Diesel ICEDiesel PHEV(38 kWh)BEV(Optare)(92 kWh)BEV(Wrightbus)(150 kWh)BEV(BYD)(324 kWh)26.629.232.835.839.441.439.941.241.311%1012FIGURE 23.AVERAGE SOYBEAN OIL YIELDS FROM U.S

215、.SOYBEAN CRUSHING(2000/012023/24 PROJ)Sources:USDA;Stillwater analysisTRANSPORTATION ENERGY INSTITUTE|BALANCING THE BENEFITS OF BIOFUELS35To enable comparison of the acreage requirements to produce ethanol(from corn and grain sorghum)and BD and RD(from soybeans and canola),the gallons of fuel produc

216、ed from each acre of crop,based on 2022 yields as reported by USDA,are summarized in Table 2.TABLE 2.GALLON PER ACRE YIELDS OF ETHANOL,BD,AND RD(2022)PRODUCTFEEDSTOCKPounds of Feedstock per Gallon of Product2022 Yield,Bushels per AcreGallons of Fuel per AcreEthanolCorn19.0173.3510.7EthanolSorghum19.

217、041.1121.1BiodieselSoybeans38.649.576.9BiodieselCanola17.329.4102.0Renewable DieselSoybeans41.649.571.3Renewable DieselCanola18.629.494.7Sources:USDA;GREET 2022;Stillwater analysisTRANSPORTATION ENERGY INSTITUTE|BALANCING THE BENEFITS OF BIOFUELSTRANSPORTATION ENERGY INSTITUTE|BALANCING THE BENEFITS

218、 OF BIOFUELS362.5 FUTURE DEMANDS FOR FEEDSTOCKS AND ACREAGEOur assessment of future demands for biofuel feedstocks and acreage is derived from the domestic production outlooks for ethanol,BD,and RD contained in the Reference case of the EIAs 2023 Annual Energy Outlook(AEO).40 This assessment is base

219、d on enacted laws and regulations as of the fall of 2022,when EIAs analysis was done.It includes a preliminary view of the impacts of the IRA;41 it does not include proposed light-duty and heavy-duty vehicle GHG emission and fuel economy standards proposed by the Biden administration in 2023.The pro

220、jected decline in BD and RD volumes between 2027 and 2028 is due to the expiration of the clean fuel production credit(CFPC,also known as the 45Z credit for the relevant section of the U.S.tax code);if Congress extends this credit(as was repeatedly done for the biomass-based diesel blenders tax cred

221、it BTC throughout its history),this drop-off would be postponed or potentially eliminated.Those impacts,and a more refined view of the IRA incorporating evolving guidance from the Internal Revenue Service(IRS),will be factors in the 2025 AEO,which is expected to be published in March 2025.42 Table 3

222、 summarizes EIAs outlook for domestic production of ethanol,BD,and RD.40 EIA|Annual Energy Outlook(AEO)Table 11:Petroleum and Other Liquids Supply and Disposition41 Including the expiration of the clean fuels production credit(45Z)after 2027.42 EIA is not producing an AEO for 2024 as they are in the

223、 midst of a major update to the models they use for this work.Table 3 shows that EIA expects 2024 to be the peak for U.S.ethanol,BD,and RD production given the current federal and state incentive programs.Unless new programs can rapidly increase the demand for ethanol via E85 and E15,the increase of

224、 new gasoline fuel economy standards and the decrease in the production of flex-fueled vehicles(FFVs)will result in the gradual reduction in the U.S.demand for ethanol.As U.S.production of corn and ethanol becomes more efficient,less corn grown on fewer acres will be required to satisfy domestic dem

225、and for current ethanol applications.The longer-term outlook for U.S.ethanol production depends on whether or not demand for ethanol as a feedstock for production of SAF via the Alcohol-to-Jet process becomes material.This,together with competing demands for U.S.crop acreage will determine overall U

226、.S.corn production and export levels.The situation for BD and RD will be similar to ethanol,with a gradual reduction in the demand for both through 2035.Since BD and RD use the same feedstocks,and there is no surplus in feedstock availability,state LCF regulations will play a large role in determini

227、ng how these feedstocks are divided between the two alternative diesel fuels.TABLE 3.EIA OUTLOOK FOR DOMESTIC BIOFUELS PRODUCTION,MILLION GALLONS(20222035)FUEL20222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035Ethanol15,00814,72415,77615,66415,62715,60615,69915,59215,51115,44215,42115,35515,352

228、15,461Biodiesel1,6401,4451,5991,4701,4431,4671,0921,1611,2281,2671,2601,2811,2581,232Renewable Diesel2,0812,4862,5332,4462,4512,4542,0502,0362,0532,0842,1612,1712,2182,269Biodiesel17.329.429.429.429.429.429.429.429.429.429.429.429.4102.0Sources:EIA;Stillwater analysisTRANSPORTATION ENERGY INSTITUTE|

229、BALANCING THE BENEFITS OF BIOFUELS37To estimate the amount of corn and grain sorghum acreage needed to enable this volume of domestic ethanol production,we first assume that 99%of future production will be derived from corn grain and 1%from grain sorghum.43 The efficiency of conversion of corn and s

230、orghum to ethanol is based on an extrapolation of the historical trend shown in Figure 22,up to a limit of 3 gallons per bushel first achieved in 2026.Per-acre yields for corn and grain sorghum are assumed to continue to grow in line with the historical trends illustrated in Figure 22.Utilizing thes

231、e inputs suggests that the gross acreage requirements peak at just below 30 million acres in 2024 and then slowly decline as shown in Figure 24.This trend is driven by relatively stable to declining volumetric demand for ethanol and increasing ethanol yields per bushel of corn and grain sorghum,comb

232、ined with increasing agricultural yields of these feedstocks.43 Thus,we assume that domestic ethanol production from corn fiber,wheat,or other feedstocks remains a negligible portion of the mix.This is conservative as it will slightly overstate the corresponding demand for corn and grain sorghum acr

233、eage.LOREM IPSUM2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035Millions of acresDIESEL POOLGASOLINE POOLU.S.MARKETING YEAR(SEPT 1-AUG 31)$54,568$69,262200,000 MILES(average US electricity mix)19,000 MILES(states with low carbon electricity)20082010200920112014201320152012201620

234、172018 Efficient ICE vehicleDiesel ICEDiesel hybrid(4.8 kWh)Diesel PHEV(38 kWh)BEV(345 kWh)Diesel ICEDiesel PHEV(38 kWh)BEV(Optare)(92 kWh)BEV(Wrightbus)(150 kWh)BEV(BYD)(324 kWh)11%051015202530Sources:EIA;USDA;Stillwater analysisCorn acresGrain sorghum acresFIGURE 24.PROJECTED U.S.ETHANOL GROSS FEE

235、DSTOCK ACREAGE REQUIREMENTS(20222035)TRANSPORTATION ENERGY INSTITUTE|BALANCING THE BENEFITS OF BIOFUELS38Key factors that could influence this outlook include:Domestic gasoline demandThis will be impacted by trends in vehicle miles traveled,the pace at which the domestic vehicle fleet transitions to

236、 electric vehicles,and the pace of vehicle turnover to vehicles with higher fuel economy.Adoption of higher ethanol blendsEIAs outlook assumes that retail gasoline sales are predominantly E10 for this period.A more rapid transition to E15,potentially enabled by removal of existing summertime Reid va

237、por pressure constraints on E15,would enable a significant increase in ethanol demand.Potential use of ethanol as a feedstock for SAF productionEthanol is a potential feedstock for production of SAF via the alcohol-to-jet(ATJ)process.Commercialization of this technology depends on SAF-specific gover

238、nment incentives,SAF plant investments,and choices that the IRS has yet to make on the methodology for determining the CI of SAF produced from corn ethanol via the ATJ process.Our current outlook assumes that ATJ demand does not become significant before 2035.To estimate the future demand for soybea

239、n and canola acreage required for EIAs projected production of BD and RD,we need to take into account that,unlike the case for ethanol(where nearly all production comes from corn and grain sorghum),the mix of feedstocks for BD and RD production is more diverse and variable.Thus,we consider two poten

240、tial demand scenarios for soybeans and canola:one in which soybean oil and canola oil remain at the same share of combined BD and RD feedstock as in recent history(32.5%for soybean oil,6.8%for canola oil)and another in which soybean oil and canola oil combined(83%soybean oil,17%canola oil)serve as t

241、he marginal feedstock for all increases and decreases in projected BD and RD production.To translate the projected feedstock demands to the required crop acreage,it is assumed that BD and RD yields per pound of feedstock remain constant throughout this time frame,and per-acre yields of soybeans and

242、canola increase in line with historical trends.This results in the two bands shown in Figure 25.Projected GrossCanola Acres for Biofuels ProductionProjected GrossSoybean Acres for Biofuels Production2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035Millions of acresDIESEL POOLGASO

243、LINE POOLU.S.MARKETING YEAR(SEPT 1-AUG 31)BTCCFPNO BLEND CREDIT$54,568$69,262200,000 MILES(average US electricity mix)19,000 MILES(states with low carbon electricity)20082010200920112014201320152012201620172018 Efficient ICE vehicleDiesel ICEDiesel hybrid(4.8 kWh)Diesel PHEV(38 kWh)BEV(345 kWh)Diese

244、l ICEDiesel PHEV(38 kWh)BEV(Optare)(92 kWh)BEV(Wrightbus)(150 kWh)BEV(BYD)(324 kWh)11%051010202525Sources:EIA;USDA;Stillwater analysisFIGURE 25.PROJECTED U.S.BD AND RD GROSS FEEDSTOCK ACREAGE REQUIREMENTS(20222035)TRANSPORTATION ENERGY INSTITUTE|BALANCING THE BENEFITS OF BIOFUELS39Key factors that c

245、ould influence this outlook include:The future of federal biofuel blending creditsIn formulating their outlook for biofuels demand in the 2023 AEO,the basis for this analysis,EIA assumed current law as of the fall of 2022.This means that the BTC ends after 2024 and is replaced with the CFPC for 2025

246、 through 2027,and there are no CFPC blending credits for BD or RD after 2027.This results in a small reduction in projected demands in 2025 and a larger reduction for 2028 onward.If Congress elects to extend the CFPC past 2027 or establishes an alternative,EIAs demand outlook for these fuels would b

247、e expected to increase;the extent of any increase depends on the nature of any future federal incentives.Future demand for liquid diesel fuelIf the U.S.diesel fleet transitions to other fuels more quickly than projected by EIA,demand for RD and BD may be expected to decrease somewhat.Availability of

248、 other potential feedstocksThe bands shown in Figure 25 assume a mix of available feedstocks similar to that in recent history.If alternative feedstocks become commercially available at competitive costs,this could reduce demand for soybean oil and canola oil as biofuel feedstocks.Potential new feed

249、stocks include cover crops such as camelina,pennycress,and carinata.Additionally,potential breakthroughs in the cost of non-lipid RD pathways such as Fischer-Tropsch(FT)could make alternative feedstocks such as forestry waste and municipal solid waste viable competitors.Development of demand for SAF

250、Currently,nearly all production of SAF is from the same feedstocks as BD and RD.Hence,any near-term growth in domestic SAF production is most likely to come at the expense of feedstock availability for BD and RD.Potential breakthroughs in the development of ATJ or FT technologies could offset this f

251、actor.39TRANSPORTATION ENERGY INSTITUTE|BALANCING THE BENEFITS OF BIOFUELS40In this section,we look at the inputs into biofuels production broken down into two primary components:feedstock production and feedstock conversion to biofuel.For the three biofuelsethanol,BD,and RDsimilarities in the stage

252、s of production can be presented in a generalized flow.The production can be broken into three stages,with generalized inputs for each step.Figure 1 at the beginning of this report shows the steps and their inputs.The first step is farming to produce the crop that becomes biofuel feedstock.The secon

253、d step is feedstock production,which prepares the crop so it becomes feedstock.The last step is the conversion of the feedstock to biofuels and by-products.The production of crop-based renewable fuels arches over two industries:agriculture and the smaller biofuels industry.As illustrated in Figure 1

254、,the portion of the agriculture sector that produces biofuel feedstocks also supplies the global food and feed market,which is much larger than the biofuel feedstock market.To properly describe the inputs and costs of biofuels production,this section breaks the topic into two componentsthe inputs in

255、to feedstock production(i.e.,the agricultural sector producing the biofuel feedstocks)and the feedstock conversion to biofuels(i.e.,biofuels production).We outline these inputs for each fuel type.SECTION 3.Biofuels Production TRANSPORTATION ENERGY INSTITUTE|BALANCING THE BENEFITS OF BIOFUELSTRANSPOR

256、TATION ENERGY INSTITUTE|BALANCING THE BENEFITS OF BIOFUELS413.1 ETHANOL PRODUCTION INPUTSThe utilities required to produce ethanol include electricity,steam,and cooling water;the quantities of each range significantly within the literature reporting on this subject.Typical utilities usage can be est

257、imated by using the GREET model,published annually by Argonne National Laboratory.44 It covers required inputs and emission factors for a wide range of fuel and vehicle technologies,with a focus on the current state of technology as practiced in the U.S.This model is updated annually based on extens

258、ive review of industry data,with the 2022 model being the most current version as of this writing.There are many other published studies on this topic,most of which are done on a one-off basis in different years;as a result,they have different assumptions of crop yields,agricultural input requiremen

259、ts,process technologies,and allocation of inputs between the biofuel and co-products.For this report,we focus on the GREET model,as it is widely respected in the industry and regularly updated.Table 4 summarizes the water,electricity,and natural gas inputs requiredas reported in the 2022 GREET model

260、for production of corn ethanol at a dry mill plant with corn oil co-production;this is the dominant technology currently in use for ethanol production in the U.S.These inputs are split between those required to produce corn and transport it 44 GREET modelto the ethanol plant(corn production)and thos

261、e required to convert the corn to ethanol and co-products and transport the product to market(ethanol production).Corn production WaterIn most of the U.S.corn belt,water is primarily supplied from rainfall.Irrigation is used in drier areas or during drough Natural gasNatural gas is primarily used as

262、 an input to produce fertilizers and herbicides.Additionally,natural gas and propane are utilized as needed to dry corn when weather conditions force the crop to be harvested before it naturally dries to the 15%maximum moisture content required for long-term storage.PetroleumFuel,predominantly diese

263、l,is needed to power agricultural equipment used to prepare the field for planting,plant the crop,operate irrigation equipment where needed,spread fertilizer,and harvest the crop.Ethanol production WaterWater is primarily utilized as part of the fermentation media,for production of steam used for pr

264、ocess heating,and for process cooling.Most U.S.plants operate at or near zero water dis-charge(i.e.,water brought into the plant is recycled repeatedly so that freshwater input is limited to that required to replace evaporative losses).TABLE 4.INPUT REQUIREMENTS FOR ONE GALLON OF ETHANOL VIA U.S.DRY

265、 MILL CORN ETHANOL PLANTS WITH CORN OIL CO-PRODUCTIONINPUTUNITSCORN PRODUCTIONETHANOL PRODUCTIONTOTALWATERgallons/gallon28.33.331.6ELECTRICITYkWh/gallonn/a0.630.63ENZYMES$/gallonn/a0.0340.034NATURAL GAS*BTU/gallon5,426*22,38627,812*PETROLEUMDGE/gallon0.0270.0080.035Sources:GREET model;Stillwater ana

266、lysis*Includes natural gas used to produce fertilizersTRANSPORTATION ENERGY INSTITUTE|BALANCING THE BENEFITS OF BIOFUELS42 ElectricityElectricity is primarily used to provide power to the mill and to the centrifuges used to separate the distillers grains from the ethanol-water mix produced in the fe

267、rmenters and to drive the various pumps required to move liquid streams through the plant.Plants recovering corn oil typically have an additional electric-powered centrifuge to separate corn oil from the thin stillage.(The GREET model assumes a grid average mix of primary energy for power generation

268、.)Natural gasNatural gas is primarily used to produce steam required for process heating and to dry the distillers grains co-product.The drying of distillers grains represents about 30%of natural gas consumption at plants that produce dried distillers grains.The replacement of molecular sieve dryers

269、(required to produce anhydrous ethanol)with membrane dryers,a technology upgrade that is becoming increasingly common in the industry,offers further reductions in natural gas usage.EnzymesTwo enzymes,alpha-amylase and glucoamylase,are used to catalyze conversion of the starch molecules in the corn i

270、nto sugar molecules that can be fermented to ethanol.3.2 BIODIESEL PRODUCTION INPUTSTable 5 summarizes the inputs required for growing soybeans and for BD production from soybean oil at U.S.plants.Unlike ethanol,where nearly all production comes from a single feedstock(corn),U.S.BD producers use a m

271、ix of feedstocks(primarily soybean oil,canola oil,inedible tallow,distillers corn oil,and UCO).This mix can vary significantly among individual producers and over time based on local availability and short-term economics.As input requirements vary significantly between feedstocks,both for feedstock

272、production and conversion to BD,the GREET model reports input requirements for individual feedstocks.As soybean oil is the most commonly used feedstock,we report the GREET model values based on soybean oil.Soybean oil productionThis includes inputs required both to grow soybeans and to extract the s

273、oybean oil at a crushing plant,with soy meal as a co-product.WaterWater consumption is primarily to grow the soybeans.In most soybean-producing regions of the U.S.,the water is primarily derived from rainfall,with irrigation used only when required by drought.Natural gasNatural gas is required to pr

274、oduce fertilizer and herbicides and to produce a portion of the electricity required for crushing the soybeans to extract the oil.(The GREET model assumes a grid average mix of primary energy for power generation.)PetroleumFuel,predominantly diesel,is needed to power agricultural equipment used to p

275、repare the field for planting,plant the crop,operate irrigation equipment where needed,spread fertilizer,and harvest the crop.Soy biodiesel production WaterWater consumption is primarily for washing stages in the process to separate the BD product from excess methanol reactant and the co-product gly

276、cerin.Water is recycled in the process to minimize freshwater demand.TRANSPORTATION ENERGY INSTITUTE|BALANCING THE BENEFITS OF BIOFUELS43Natural gasNatural gas is used to produce methanol,which is consumed in the production of BD,and to produce power.MethanolMethanol reacts with the triglyceride mol

277、ecules in the soybean oil to convert them to the mix of methyl esters in BD.Similar to Table 5,Table 6 summarizes the inputs required for growing canola and for BD production from canola oil at U.S.plants.3.3 RENEWABLE DIESEL PRODUCTION INPUTSTable 7 summarizes the inputs required for growing soybea

278、ns and for RD production at U.S.plants.Unlike ethanol,where nearly all production comes from a single feedstock(corn),U.S.RD producers use a mix of feedstocks(primarily soybean oil,canola oil,inedible tallow,distillers corn oil,and UCO),as shown in Figure 7.This mix can vary significantly among indi

279、vidual producers and over time based on local availability and short-term economics.As input requirements vary significantly between feedstocks,both for feedstock production and conversion to RD,the GREET model reports input requirements for individual feedstocks.As soybean oil is the most commonly

280、used feedstock,we report the GREET model values based on soybean oil.Soybean oil productionThis includes inputs required both to grow soybeans and to extract the soybean oil at a crushing plant.WaterWater consumption is primarily to grow the soybeans.In most soybean-producing regions of the U.S.the

281、water is primarily derived from rainfall,with irrigation used only when required by drought.Natural gasNatural gas is required to produce fertilizer and herbicides and to produce a portion of the electricity required for crushing the soybeans to extract the oil.(The GREET model assumes a grid averag

282、e mix of primary energy for power generation.)TABLE 5.INPUT REQUIREMENTS FOR U.S.SOYBEAN OIL BD PRODUCTIONTABLE 6.INPUT REQUIREMENTS FOR U.S.CANOLA OIL BD PRODUCTIONINPUTUNITS SOYBEAN OIL PRODUCTIONSOY BIODIESEL PRODUCTIONTOTALWATERgallons/gallon74.10.774.8NATURAL GAS*BTU/gallon1,779*18,186*19,965*M

283、ETHANOLlbs/gallonn/a0.710.71PETROLEUMDGE/gallon0.0230.0100.033INPUTUNITSCANOLA OIL PRODUCTIONCANOLA BD PRODUCTIONTOTALWATERgallons/gallon1.790.492.28NATURAL GAS*BTU/gallon10,600*19,200*29,700*METHANOLlbs/gallonn/a0.710.71PETROLEUMDGE/gallon0.0320.0100.042Sources:GREET model;ISU Biodiesel Profitabili

284、ty model;Stillwater analysis*Includes natural gas used to produce methanol and fertilizersSources:GREET model;ISU Biodiesel Profitability model;Stillwater analysis*Includes natural gas used to produce methanol and fertilizers.TRANSPORTATION ENERGY INSTITUTE|BALANCING THE BENEFITS OF BIOFUELS44Petrol

285、eumFuel,predominantly diesel,is needed to power agricultural equipment used to prepare the field for planting,plant the crop,operate irrigation equipment where needed,spread fertilizer,and harvest the crop.Soy renewable diesel production WaterWater consumption is primarily for steam generated to pro

286、vide process heat.Water is recycled in the process to minimize freshwater demand.Natural gasNatural gas is used to produce hydrogen,which is consumed in the production of RD,as fuel for process heaters,and for production of power.HydrogenHydrogen is reacted with the feedstock to convert it into RD a

287、nd co-products.Similar to Table 7,Table 8 summarizes the inputs required for growing canola and for RD production from canola oil at U.S.plants.We have excluded here any analysis of sorghum and sugarcane feedstocks,as sorghum is not produced in material quantities in the U.S.nor is it used as a prim

288、ary feedstock for biofuels,and the amount of sugarcane used for ethanol production in the U.S.is so small as to be irrelevant.Most of the sugarcane ethanol used in the U.S.was produced in Brazil.As the focus of this paper is on U.S.production,we will not expand on sugarcane or sorghum inputs.TABLE 7

289、.INPUT REQUIREMENTS FOR U.S.SOYBEAN OIL RD PRODUCTIONTABLE 8.INPUT REQUIREMENTS FOR U.S.CANOLA OIL RD PRODUCTIONINPUTUNITSSOYBEAN OIL PRODUCTIONSOY RD PRODUCTIONTOTALWATERGallons/gallon77.01.178.1NATURAL GAS*BTU/gallon1,847*22,510*24,357*HYDROGENSCF/gallonn/a1500250015002500PETROLEUMDGE/gallon0.0240

290、.0110.035INPUTUNITSCANOLA OIL PRODUCTIONCANOLA BIODIESEL PRODUCTIONTOTALWATERGallons/gallon1.860.872.28NATURAL GAS*BTU/gallon11,000*23,500*34,500*HYDROGENSCF/gallonn/a1500250015002500PETROLEUMDGE/gallon0.0330.0110.045Sources:GREET;Stillwater analysis*Includes natural gas used to produce hydrogen and

291、 fertilizers.Sources:GREET;Stillwater analysis*Includes natural gas used to produce hydrogen and fertilizers.TRANSPORTATION ENERGY INSTITUTE|BALANCING THE BENEFITS OF BIOFUELS45SECTION 4.Ancillary Commercial ProductsAs is common with most chemical processes,the production of ethanol,BD,RD,and SAF is

292、 accompanied by the production of co-products or by-products.45 More background on these ancillary products is provided in this section.4.1 ETHANOL CO-PRODUCTSThe major components of a kernel of corn,grain46 sorghum,or other grain are starch,protein,fiber,oil,and water.The fermentation process conve

293、rts the starch to ethanol and CO2,with about 6.3 pounds of CO2 being produced for each gallon of ethanol.Corn and grain sorghum contain 3%6%oil;most grain ethanol plants in the U.S.recover a portion of that oil,typically between 0.6 and 1.2 pounds per bushel of grain.47 The rest of the corn kernel,i

294、ncluding all the protein and fiber,unrecovered oil,and unconverted starch,is recovered out of the fermentation process as wet distillers grains with 45 The distinction between the terms“co-product”and“by-product”is somewhat arbitrary.“Co-product”is commonly used to denote those ancillary products th

295、at materially contribute to the overall value of the production process,whereas“by-product”is generally used for ancillary products of lesser or negative value.46 E.g.,wheat,barley,and rye.47 One bushel of corn or grain sorghum is 56 pounds with a maximum 15%moisture content.48 26 U.S.Code 45Q-Credi

296、t for Carbon Oxide Sequestrationsolubles(WDGS);this is a slurry containing about 70%water.We discuss the disposition of these co-products in the subsections that follow.4.1.1 CARBON DIOXIDEThe CO2 stream coming off ethanol fermenters is very pure.Many grain ethanol plants include equipment to captur

297、e this gas for sale as either food-grade(used in carbonated beverages including beer)or industrial grade(used for,e.g.,dry ice and fire extinguishers)CO2.This usage is limited by the demand for CO2 in the vicinity of the ethanol plant as long-distance transport of CO2 is relatively costly.A few etha

298、nol plants currently capture this CO2 and inject it into permanent storage wells to lower the CI of their ethanol production and qualify for federal 45Q tax credits.48 The increased value of 45Q tax credits with passage of the IRA and the increasing value of CI reductions in states with LCF regulati

299、ons is expected to increase this practice.Currently,the RFS does not incentivize carbon capture and storage practices.TRANSPORTATION ENERGY INSTITUTE|BALANCING THE BENEFITS OF BIOFUELS46An overview of the mix of products from processing a bushel of corn at a U.S.dry mill ethanol plant in 2022 is pre

300、sented in Figure 26.49 The large majority of U.S.grain ethanol production occurs at dry mill plants,relatively low-capital facilities optimized for fuel-grade ethanol production.There are also several wet mill plants in operation;these plants are considerably more capital-intensive and are designed

301、to maximize total value from the mix of products from the corn kernel;the corn oil produced at these facilities is food grade and not approved for use as a biofuel feedstock.4.1.2 CORN/GRAIN SORGHUM OIL The practice of recovering non-food-grade corn or grain sorghum oil at dry mill ethanol plants49

302、began about 15 years ago and has grown to be very common practice due to growth in demand for this product as a feedstock for BD and RD production.It also has some use as animal feed.The technology for oil recovery has steadily improved,allowing a growing proportion of the oil content of the grain t

303、o be recovered.As this is a non-food-grade product,its value is dependent upon demand for this oil as a BD/RD/SAF feedstock.Accordingly,changes in any of the federal and state regulations and incentives driving demand for these fuels directly impact the economics of recovery of the oil from the dist

304、illers grains.4.1.3 DISTILLERS GRAINSA slurry containing all parts of the grain kernel other than the starch and recovered oil is produced in the grain ethanol production process.This slurry,known as WDGS,contains about 70%water and can either be sold to local feedlots or dried for sale in more remo

305、te markets.Given that the WDGS quickly rots,New York 6%New Jersey 4%Illinois 3%Pennsylvania 3%Michigan 3%Ohio 3%Washington 3%Georgia 2%North Carolina 2%Massachusetts 2%Arizona 2%Virginia 2%0%More than 25 years21 to 25 years16 to 20 years11 to 15 years6 to 10 years0 to 5 yearsCorn Oil1%0.8 lbs2030 PL

306、UG-IN VIO FORECAST BY STATEEthanol35%19.4 lbs/2.95 galCarbon Dioxide33%17 lbsDDGS31%17 lbsFIGURE 26.AVERAGE PRODUCT MIX(BY WEIGHT)FROM U.S.DRY MILL ETHANOL PLANTS(2022)Sources:USDA;Stillwater analysis46TRANSPORTATION ENERGY INSTITUTE|BALANCING THE BENEFITS OF BIOFUELS47it must be consumed within two

307、 to three days in order to be marketable;thus,its commercial value is limited to feedlots located within a short drive of the ethanol plant.As most ethanol plants do not have sufficient demand for WDGS in the immediate vicinity,they dry the WDGS to less than 10%moisture in order to produce a high-pr

308、otein product known as DDGS,which can be stored for longer periods.50 Production of DDGS requires the use of natural-gas-fired dryers;the natural gas consumed in these dryers represents approximately one-third of the natural gas demand at a dry mill ethanol plant.This natural gas demand is a key dif

309、ferentiator of CI between dry mill ethanol plants;plants that are able to place most of their distillers grains as WDGS earn a significantly lower(more favorable)CI for their ethanol production,and this represents an additional source of value.Future growth of state LCF programs beyond California,Or

310、egon,and Washington may,therefore,encourage more ethanol producers to work on securing local WDGS demand in order to reduce their CIs.Production of distillers grains displaces demand for soy meal,corn grain,and other grains as livestock feed.4.2 BIODIESEL CO-PRODUCTBD is produced by reacting the lip

311、id feedstock(one of the many types of fats,oils,and greases)with methanol to produce BD and crude glycerol.51 Approximately 10 pounds of crude glycerol is produced for each 100 pounds of BD.The crude glycerol contains residual moisture and other impurities that must be removed in order to produce a

312、commodity-grade glycerol.Some BD producers refine their crude glycerol prior to sale,while others sell the crude product to third parties for the required purification.50 DDGS is sufficiently stable that it is commonly sold to markets around the globe.51 Also known as glycerin.Once refined,glycerol

313、has a wide range of markets,including use as a moisturizer,humectant,and lubricant in a variety of personal care products;a sweetener and preservative in food products;and a component used to adjust the taste and smoothness of oral medications such as cough medicines.The growth of glycerol volumes p

314、roduced as a co-product of BD manufacture has largely displaced manufacture of glycerol via petrochemical processes.Accordingly,petrochemical production of glycerol would likely need to increase if BD production were to decline.4.3 RENEWABLE DIESEL AND SAF CO-PRODUCTSThe large majority of RD and SAF

315、 currently being supplied to the U.S.market is derived from hydrotreatment of lipid feedstocks,sometimes referred to as the hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids(HEFA)process.Additional processes currently being developed for commercialization of these fuels include gasification of waste feedstocks

316、combined with an FT process to produce a range of hydrocarbons that may then undergo further processing to optimize the product mix(both RD and SAF)and the ATJ process,which can convert ethanol or isobutanol to,primarily,SAF.A number of other processes are currently in various stages of technologica

317、l development with no clear timeline for commercialization.A common feature of the HEFA,FT,and ATJ processes is that they all produce mixtures of paraffins and isoparaffins that can,to some extent,be optimized to maximize yield of the desired RD or SAF products.In addition to the desired product,the

318、y co-produce renewable fuel gas,renewable propane,RN,and,in the case of the FT process,paraffinic waxes.We discuss the disposition of these co-products in the subsections that follow.TRANSPORTATION ENERGY INSTITUTE|BALANCING THE BENEFITS OF BIOFUELS484.3.1 RENEWABLE FUEL GASRenewable fuel gas result

319、s from cracking reactions that occur as part of both the primary reaction and additional processing to optimize the product mix.The primary use of this fuel gas is to displace demand for pipeline natural gas that would otherwise be required to produce hydrogen or provide heat and steam utilized with

320、in the plant.As a co-product,renewable fuel gas reduces the plants cost for purchase of natural gas.This displacement of natural gas purchases also lowers the CI assigned to the primary products,thereby increasing their value in states with LCF programs and across the country,given the CFPC provisio

321、n of the IRA.4.3.2 RENEWABLE PROPANE(RENEWABLE LIQUIFIED PETROLEUM GAS)The HEFA process converts the glycerin backbone of FOG feedstocks to propane.This propane can be utilized internally in the same manner as renewable fuel gas.Alternatively,it can be separated and sold as a direct substitute for f

322、ossil propane,particularly where there are local markets that provide value for the renewable attribute of this product.The two primary uses for propane are as a heating fuel,particularly in areas where pipeline natural gas is not readily available,and as a petrochemical feedstock.A much smaller use

323、 of propane is for transportation fuel in specially designed vehicles;as a transportation fuel,renewable propane is eligible for RFS RINs(1.1 D5 RINs per gallon)and LCF and CFPC credits where applicable.Due to the limited market size and relatively high cost to segregate and transport renewable prop

324、ane,most product is either consumed within the production plant or commingled with fossil propane.4.3.3 RENEWABLE NAPHTHAThe paraffinic naphtha produced in these processes is most valuable when used as a component of transportation fuel,as it is eligible for RFS RINs and LCF and CFPC credits where a

325、pplicable.While it can be used as a component of gasoline,it has undesirably high vapor pressure and an undesirably low octane value.Many refineries have the ability to isomerize RN;this process increases the octane but also results in an increase in its already high vapor pressure.In California,RN

326、has found use as the required hydrocarbon component of E85;the 85%ethanol has very high octane and low vapor pressure,which can offset those properties of the RN.The other market for paraffinic naphtha is as a petrochemical feedstock;this market typically,however,does not value the renewable attribu

327、te.4.3.4 PARAFFINIC WAXESFT processes produce a high percentage of paraffinic waxes.Most of this wax then undergoes further processing to maximize the yield of RD or SAF.There is,however,a limited market for the waxes;they are used in moisture,grease,and odor barriers in paper and cardboard packagin

328、g used for food;cosmetics;candles;hot-melt adhesives;and wood panels used in construction.TRANSPORTATION ENERGY INSTITUTE|BALANCING THE BENEFITS OF BIOFUELS49In this section,we discuss the total cost to produce biofuels from crop-based feedstocks.In the prior sections,inputs have been broken into tw

329、o categories:feedstock production inputs and inputs required for the conversion of feedstocks to biofuels(i.e.,biofuels production).Crop-based biofuel feedstocks have markets that are independent of biofuels and are traded domestically as well as globally primarily for food and animal feed.Therefore

330、,the cost of the feedstock that will be converted to biofuel is not the total cost to the feedstock producers but the value set by the commodity markets,which are driven by the primary food and feed markets for these feedstocks.Thus,the true cost of biofuels production is not the sum of the feedstoc

331、k production and conversion costs but the value of the feedstock in the commodity market plus the cost to convert to biofuels.Broadly speaking,feedstock cost accounts for the majority of the cost of producing biofuels,while conversion costs account for the remainder.5.1 FEEDSTOCK COSTS OF BIOFUELS T

332、he primary feedstock for ethanol is corn,and the most widely used feedstock for BD and RD is soybean oil.Soybeans are crushed to produce soybean meal and soybean oil;thus,soybean oil prices are a function of soybean prices.Since fuel production is not the primary use for any of the biofuel feedstock

333、s,the commodity prices are reflective of the U.S.and SECTION 5.Production Costs of BiofuelsTRANSPORTATION ENERGY INSTITUTE|BALANCING THE BENEFITS OF BIOFUELSTRANSPORTATION ENERGY INSTITUTE|BALANCING THE BENEFITS OF BIOFUELS50world markets for corn and soybeans in their primary use cases as food and feed.The U.S.produces both soybeans and corn in excess of domestic needs and participates in a robus