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1、To Understand Climate Mobility,Follow the Water September 2024 By Torsten Kurth,Dean Muruven,Ann Balzarolo,Emma Clemens,Lamia Skalli,Julia Huysamer,Fhulu Netsianda,Professor Neil Stott,and Sophie Harbour1 TO UNDERSTAND CLIMATE MOBILITY,FOLLOW THE WATERTo Understand Climate Mobility,Follow the WaterT

2、he likely increase in droughts,floods,storms,wildfires,landslides,ocean levels,and other effects of climate change will dramatically affect the distribution and cleanliness of watereveryones need and rightand thus significantly alter the lives and movement of people across the globe.Changes in water

3、 patternsresulting in too much,too little,or too dirty waterwill profoundly affect agriculture(and thus food security),access to clean water,and land use in general.These effects,and their impact on social and political institutions,will lead to major changes in where people live and how they make a

4、 living,and may increase conflicts within and across country borders.In this report,we analyze the causes of water-related cli-mate mobility,quantify its likely effects,and offer a path forward for reducing the impact as much as possible.What Is Climate Mobility?Climate mobility is an umbrella term

5、for the voluntary or involuntary movement of people in response to alterations in their environment and living conditions primarily due to or associated with climate change.Climate mobility refers to both the voluntary movement and the involuntary movement(displacement)of millions of people in respo

6、nse to the impacts of climate changewhether or not proximately caused by the effects of waterand of the wide range of contingent sociopolitical and economic factors that will follow from such movement.Conversely,climate immobility refers to the inability or unwillingness of people to move because of

7、 various socio-political,economic,spiritual,and environmental factors.We use the term mobility rather than migration to describe these movements,in order to avoid the many(and often adverse)political implications of the latter term.Most climate mobility is caused by changes in water pat-terns,makes

8、it an especially challenging problemglobal in extent and yet frequently local in causes and effects.Although many different stakeholders with competing interests need to be involved in the effort to mitigate it,most have as yet been unwilling to address the problem head-on.(See“Water Is a Wicked Pro

9、blem.”)Climate mobility includes two kinds of geographical move-ment,aside from to immobility.People may move internal-ly,within a countrys borders,due to factors such a long-lasting local drought.Or they may move externally,across borders,although external movement accounts for only a small proport

10、ion of climate mobility,since climate hazards are often local in immediate impact.Water patterns shape and are shaped by human activity.As global warming causes temperatures to rise and vary around the world,changes in the amount,availability,and quality of water will be the primary pathway through

11、which we experience the economic,politi-cal,and social impacts of climate change.BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP +CAMBRIDGE PEACESHAPING AND CLIMATE LAB 2Like climate mobility,the global water crisis is a wicked problemone that is especially difficult to solve directly because of its complexity and multiple

12、 interdependencies,and because in the past our collective,well-meaning miti-gation efforts have all too often had unintended negative consequences.Still,recognizing the ten major shortcom-ings of water management and identifying“grains of hope”in our responses to them can help us achieve real advanc

13、-es in water reform and chart a smoother course forward.(See the exhibit.)Shortcoming#1.Water management is a challenge that many of us recognize as important but few of us act on.We hold more and more meetings and make lots of commit-ments,but these efforts have little meaningful impact.Key Stat:67

14、 The private sector followed through on just 67 of the more than 700 water-related commitments recorded during the 2023 UN Water Conference.Grain of Hope Companies appear to be considering water impacts more strongly,and more of them are taking tangible action in the form of corporate target setting

15、 and disclo-sure for water impacts(for example,the Science Based Targets Network and Taskforce on Nature-related Finan-cial Disclosures).Shortcoming#2.We fiddle at the margins,and as a result our actions do not match the scale of the problemor our lofty ambitions.We invest in the same small-scale so

16、lutions without tackling the systemic problems that would lead to lasting change.Key Stat:1.2%Less than 1.2%of people in Africa with inadequate water access gained access to water via handpumps distribut-ed by aid agencies between 2018 and 2021.That leaves more than 300 million people in the region

17、without access to safe drinking water.Grain of Hope Some regions have adopted systemic approaches to large-scale problems.In 2021,the World Food Program developed a systems approach to make the food supply in East Africa more robust against climate-related crises,enhancing the way food producers pre

18、dict and deal with these disasters.Water Is a Wicked ProblemSource:BCG analysis.The Ten Major Shortcomings of Global Water ManagementWater management is a challenge that many of us recognize as important but few of us act onAccess to water is a human right,but we allow water injustice to go largely

19、unpunishedWe dont treat water as a key element within the global commons,so we dont price it correctlyWe neglect the fact that water security is fundamental to energy security and food securityWe pursue inconsistent and fragmented action because our coordination along the water value chain is so lim

20、itedWe have forgotten how to think locally We fiddle at the margins,and as a result our actions do not match the scale of the problemor our lofty ambitionsWe approach water management problems predominantly with an engineering mindsetWe have forgotten where water comes fromits not the tap!We still t

21、ry to manage water with outdated solutions and infrastructure110987623453 TO UNDERSTAND CLIMATE MOBILITY,FOLLOW THE WATERShortcoming#3.We approach water management problems predominantly with an engineering mindset.Engineering solutions are failing us,and we seldom work with nature to solve the prob

22、lem.Key Stat:150,000 As of 2021,there were 150,000 economically obsolete dams in the EU,and only 240 of them were removed in 2021.Grain of Hope Governments are deploying nature-based solutions in some areas.For example,the government of Rwanda used them in launching urban rehabilitation plans to res

23、tore wetlands in Kigali to minimize the effects of flooding.Shortcoming#4.We have forgotten where water comes fromits not the tap!The engineered water cycle and the natural water cycle are intrinsically linked,but we treat them as if they were inde-pendent of each other.Key Stat:33 million Altogethe

24、r,33 million hectares of the worlds irrigated farmland10%of the totaluse nonrenewable groundwater.Grain of Hope A Greater Cape Town Water Fund initiative aims to re-store ecological infrastructure to improve water security in the Western Cape Water Supply System by rehabilitat-ing freshwater systems

25、.Shortcoming#5.We still try to manage water with outdated solutions and infrastructure.Promulgation of water security standards continues to lag in efforts to alleviate water challenges.We need to signifi-cantly enhance current solutions to improve their efficien-cy and effectiveness.Key Stat:1.8 bi

26、llion Globally,1.8 billion people use pit latrines,which are notorious for contaminating groundwater and posing risks to livelihoods.Grain of Hope The Gates Foundation launched the“Reinvent the Toilet Challenge”and invested$200 million to support R&D into reinventing the toilet and achieving other g

27、round-breaking sanitation solutions.Shortcoming#6.We have forgotten how to think locally.We must treat water differently from CO2 and employ bottom-up solutions rather than pursuing top-down imperatives.Grain of Hope NGOs such as Water Aid have started implementing decentralized,high-tech water solu

28、tions such as solar water pumping in water-stressed areasincluding Ethio-pia and Mozambiquewhich are suited to local environ-ments and independent of government infrastructure or funding.Shortcoming#7.We pursue inconsistent and fragmented action because our coordination along the water value chain i

29、s so limited.Disjointed efforts to implement change and varying man-dates for funding and reporting on progress inhibit compre-hensive and coordinated action.Grain of Hope The World Wildlife Fund has assembled actors across sectoral boundaries to address the problem of water insecurity through the T

30、able Mountain Water Source Partnership in Cape Town,South Africa.Shortcoming#8.We neglect the fact that water security is fundamental to energy security and food security.Ensuring food security and energy security is impossible without water security,yet we treat water security as a given and manage

31、 all three in silos.Key Stat:72%The global agricultural industry uses 72%of the worlds freshwater supply.Grain of Hope Water and Energy for Food is an international initiative to provide financial and technical support and invest-ment facilitation for environmentally sustainable innova-tions that ai

32、m to improve energy and water efficiency in the agricultural sector.BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP +CAMBRIDGE PEACESHAPING AND CLIMATE LAB 4Shortcoming#9.We do not treat water as a key element within the global commons,so we dont price it correctly.Pricing mechanisms can align societal and corporate incen-

33、tives and help reduce the exploitation of water resources.Key Stat:200 times The price of water used by agriculture would increase by 200 times if the price reflected waters true cost.Grain of Hope The World Trade Organization has outlined an Interna-tional Water Pricing Protocol that would enable c

34、om-panies and governments to account for the full cost of water use in international trade.Shortcoming#10.Access to water is a human right,but we allow water injustice to go largely unpunished.Transgressors who violate human and environmental rights to water seldom face accountability for their acti

35、ons.Grain of Hope Stop Ecocide International,founded in 2017,works to criminalize ecocide in a similar manner to genocide,crimes against humanity,war crimes,and crimes of aggression.Of all the physical impacts of climate change,those involving water availability and quality will influence climate mo

36、bility the most.BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP +CAMBRIDGE PEACESHAPING AND CLIMATE LAB 6Depending on whether people move by choice or by neces-sity,and on how long their effort to relocate lasts,climate mobility can be divided into two main types:Movement is the voluntary movement of people and can be eith

37、er cyclicalmost often seasonalor long term.Voluntary movement usually occurs when people whose livelihoods are affected by climate events seek better economic opportunities in new locales.Displacement is the involuntary movement of people,either for short periods(typically less than a year)or lon-ge

38、r periods.Involuntary displacement may be triggered by sudden-onset,short-term events such as storms and floods or by longer-lasting changes in climate and weather patterns.Climate mobility doesnt always occur solely in response to the direct effects of climate change.Rather,it may occur in reaction

39、 to a wide range of complex,interdependent fac-tors that planners,policymakers,and other stakeholders must consider in total when analyzing the causes of cli-mate mobility and devising solutions for its adverse effects.Three major categories of factors are especially relevant:Economic Factors.A well

40、-functioning economy main-tains effective trade,sufficient employment to support livelihoods,fair and stable prices,and resilience to external shocks.These characteristics decrease the need for climate mobility.Sociopolitical Factors.Citizens in a robust,inclusive economy have confidence in their co

41、untrys institutions and governance.A strong economy and good gover-nance,in turn,rely on ecological stability.Cohesion between sociopolitical and ecological factors fosters greater resilience to climate change.Ecological Factors.A stable and resilient ecology priori-tizes and protects natural resour

42、ces and biodiversity.This relationship underpins such factors as food security and productive agriculture,which in turn promote a stable economy and a well-functioning sociopolitical sphere.If people and governments allow global warming to contin-ue unchecked,these three factors will fall more and m

43、ore out of balance,increasing the likelihood of climate mobili-ty.Failure to slow the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will likely result in higher global tempera-tures,disturbed weather patterns,and slower global eco-nomic growth,and significantly increase global displace-ments.(S

44、ee“Two Crises.”)Why Water MattersOf all the potential physical impacts of climate change,changes in the availability and quality of water will have the greatest effect on climate mobility.In this regard,six water-related natural hazards loom largest:droughts,floods,storms,wildfires,extreme hot and c

45、old temperatures,and landslides caused by storms and floods.In 2022,storms,floods,and droughts caused 99%of internal disaster-related displacements;from 2018 to 2022,flood-related displacements increased by 123%.(See Exhibit 1.)Disruptions in the natural water cycle can trigger crop failure,degrade

46、and erode of soil and surrounding land,damage infrastructure and property,and significantly change ecosystems.These effects,in turn,increase a popu-lations vulnerability to other climate impacts across socio-political,economic,and demographic spheres.Results may include loss of income sources and li

47、velihoods,financial losses due to ecosystem damage,food insecurity,competi-tion for water,and political conflict,all of which contribute to increased climate mobility.These effects are visible in a country-by-country analysis of climate-related internal displacements from 2014 to 2022.(See Exhibit 2

48、.)The most populous countries experienced the largest total internal displacement,but the greatest displacement relative to population occurred in sub-Saharan Africa and Asia.(See the Appendix for a description of the methodolo-gy we used to analyze water risk and resulting climate mobility.)Despite

49、 the increased negative impacts of water-driven climate mobility,countries have thus far made little prog-ress on improving water resource management to mitigate these impacts.As a result,the international communitys prospects for meeting the targets it set for 2030 in connec-tion with the UNs Susta

50、inable Development Goal#6,which calls for adequate clean water for all,are worsening.(See“Slow Progress Toward WASH Goals.”)The manner in which climate change disrupts water pat-terns and prompts people to relocate depends on whether the problem is too little water,too much water,or the available wa

51、ter is too dirty.7 TO UNDERSTAND CLIMATE MOBILITY,FOLLOW THE WATERSources:IDMC Global Reports on Internal Displacement(20192023);BCG analysis.Note:Disaster types include only weather-related events;they exclude geophysical events such as earthquakes and volcanic eruptions.Sources:Internal Displaceme

52、nt Monitoring Centre;population by country from statistictimes(2024);BCG analysis.Note:Climate hazards include storms,floods,droughts,wildfires,and extreme temperatures,in line with the IDMCs disaster definitions;relative number of people displaced is calculated as a percentage of each countrys tota

53、l population.Exhibit 1-Storms,Floods,and Droughts Cause Almost All Internal Disaster-Related DisplacementsExhibit 2-Over the Past Decade,Southeast Asia,Central Africa,and the Americas Saw the Largest Numbers of Climate-Related Internal DisplacementsAnnual internal displacement,by disaster type,20182

54、022(millions displaced)201898101310121415119101211182430223211111111111113 million00.3%0.31%15%510%10%Internal displacements relative to population,20142022(%)Total internal displacements,20142022(millions)BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP +CAMBRIDGE PEACESHAPING AND CLIMATE LAB 8The effects of climate change

55、 in two very different placesSomalia and the many small island nations scattered across the worlds oceansillustrate the distinctions between the types of climate mobility.Human-caused climate change in Somalia has had a severe impact.Prolonged periods of drought have led to a 55%increase in the pric

56、e of basic foods and a 61%in-crease in the Integrated Food Security Phase Classifica-tions“crisis”level of food insecurity.Worsening social,political,and economic difficultiesincluding weak gover-nance and tensions between ethnic,regional,and religious groupshave led to prolonged conflict in the cou

57、ntry,exacerbated by terrorist groups that use water as a weap-on,destroy water infrastructure,block access to rivers and other water sources,and poison wells.As a result,more than 1.6 million people have been involuntarily displaced.Small island nations are experiencing very different im-pacts from

58、climate change.Many of them depend heavily on tourism,which is a form of voluntary short-term mobili-ty.But at the same time,they are extremely vulnerable to the effects of climate change,which can negatively impact tourism.For example,in the Maldives and the Seychelles,tourism accounts for 30%or mo

59、re of national GDP,but the combination of the low land elevation and rising sea level poses a serious threat to the islands livability of the is-lands.Among the potential harms are increased frequency of flooding,decreased attractiveness as a tourist destina-tion,and lower incomes.Two Crises9 TO UND

60、ERSTAND CLIMATE MOBILITY,FOLLOW THE WATERGoal#6 of the UNs Sustainable Development Goals reads,“Ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all.”However,progress toward providing 100%of the worlds population with access to a safely managed drinking system,a safely mana

61、ged sanitation service,and a handwashing facility with soap and water at homesometimes referred to as water,sanitation,and hygiene(WASH)has been slow.According to the UN,fully achieving this goal would require an annual investment of$114 billion from now through 2030,with the largest share going to

62、safe management of water for sanitation and safe access to clean water for personal use.Yet in 2021,for example,development assis-tance for water issues totaled just$8 billiona gap of$106 billion between actual investment and the investment needed that year.Slow Progress Toward WASH GoalsBOSTON CONS

63、ULTING GROUP +CAMBRIDGE PEACESHAPING AND CLIMATE LAB 10Too Little WaterPeople experience the effects of drought primarily through its influence on agriculture,in the form of crop yields,food prices,and other social,economic,and political conse-quences.In the period from 1979 to 2019,drought risk was

64、 largely concentrated in Europe,the Middle East,and Asia.(See Exhibit 3.)Nevertheless,the effects of drought are often local:Long-term drought in much of Mexico has lowered crop yields and driven up prices,notably in highly drought-sensitive primary crops such as beans and cornan effect exacerbated

65、environmentally by overuse of water and a decline in water quality.Analysts have estimated that a 10%reduction in crop yields in Mexico leads to a 2%increase in population emigration.The southwestern US experienced a particularly long and extensive drought from 1950 to 1960,with signif-icant impacts

66、 on the regions agriculture,population distribution,and economy.As a result,five of the regions seven states saw above-average rates of urbanization,accompanied by a major consolidation of individual smaller farms and ranches into much larger ones.The relationship between drought and displacement is

67、 clear in Ethiopia,where extended drought has adverse-ly affected agriculture and thus food prices,and led to massive internal displacement and famine.Every year as many as 5 million residents of Ethiopia have been forced to move.Sources:Aqueduct4.0;BCG analysis.1Based on drought score,cumulative dr

68、y days and maximum temperature.Exhibit 3-From 1979 to 2019,Drought Risk Was Highest in Eastern Europe,the Middle East,and AsiaDrought risk by country(19792019)Drought risk rank1208014011 TO UNDERSTAND CLIMATE MOBILITY,FOLLOW THE WATERToo Much WaterAll continents have experienced massive flooding in

69、the past,and they face an increasing risk of more such events as the planet warms.Flooding can occur as a result of short-term heavy rain that overwhelms the built environ-ment,or along rivers that cannot manage excessive rainfall or snowmelt,or along shorelines as a result of storm surg-es.As with

70、drought,the primary impact of flooding is on agriculture,but the size and extent of major floods can have other far-reaching economic and social effects.In recent decades,every inhabited region of the world has been affected by floods.(See Exhibit 4.)Yet flood events and their impacts are typically

71、more localized than drought events,and countries must manage them locally:In July 2021,after parts of the region endured more than 200 millimeters of rainfall over the course of four days,widespread flooding inflicted some 46 billion in eco-nomic damage and loss throughout Europe,most of it in Germa

72、ny,which endured losses of around 40 billion,and Belgium,close to 3 billion.In addition to its eco-nomic impact,the flooding displaced 16,000 people in Germany alone.In the past 11 years,two major typhoonsTyphoon Haiyan in 2013 and Typhoon Haima in 2016displaced millions of people throughout Southea

73、st Asia.Typhoon Haiyan forced more than 9 million people from their homes,and caused$1.8 billion in damage to the Phil-ippines alone.In fact,the Philippines has consistently been the nation hardest hit by flooding in the region;for example,of the 7.8 million people displaced in South East Asia in 20

74、21,5.7 million were displaced within the Philippines.Sources:Aqueduct4.0;BCG analysis.1Ranking by country of fluvial and coastal flooding risk with a 100-year return period.The rankings include a total of 162 countries.Exhibit 4-Every Inhabited Continent and Region Has Been Subject to Flooding over

75、the Past Several DecadesFlood risk by country(19792019)1Water risk rank12080140BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP +CAMBRIDGE PEACESHAPING AND CLIMATE LAB 12Water That Is Too DirtyClimate change and resulting storms,floods,and droughts can also harm water quality,which is already subject to degradation from by

76、non-climate-related factors such as poor water management and pollution.Ingesting and using poor-quality water can lead to acute,long-term health prob-lems,affect livelihoods,put food security at risk,and thus drive climate mobility.Poor water quality can also affect crop yields,increase the inciden

77、ce of disease in livestock,and contaminate crops,making them unfit for consumption.Floods can affect water quality by damaging infrastructure,contaminating water sources with sewage and chemicals,and increasing sedimentation,which clouds water and harms many forms of aquatic life.Droughts can worsen

78、 water quality through such mechanisms as washing exces-sive quantities of nutrients and salt into water bodies and reducing the flow of fresh water.In addition,droughts can impair the soils ability to filter pollutants,further contami-nating water sources.Two recent examples of water quality damage

79、 at the region-al level are illustrative:In 2022,two major cyclones struck Malawi,collapsing its water,sanitation,and hygiene infrastructure,and leading to an outbreak of cholera.And becausefor several socio-economic and political reasonsa migratory path-way between Malawi and South Africa already e

80、xisted,incidents of cholera rose dramatically in South Africa even though it was not directly affected by the storms.Sources of freshwater in Bangladeshs coastal regions face increased salinization as a result of declining fresh-water flows,more frequent storms,and rising sea levels.Because 35 milli

81、on people in Bangladesh are vulnerable to the effects of salinization,the risk of displacement there is significant.These various examples of the impact of drought,floods,and dirty water demonstrate the many complex interdepen-dencies that exist between climate mobility and sociopoliti-cal and econo

82、mic factors.As an example of the impact of water policy on economic growth,the Global Commission on Adaptation has estimated that GDP growth will decline significantly by 2050 in countries where water policy remains static in the face of global warming.In North Africa and South Asia,for example,the

83、commission estimates that continued water risk,if coupled with no change in water policy,will result in declines in GDP growth of 10%and 6%,respectively.In contrast,improved water policies and more efficient water use would improve the overall economic outlook to 2050.If the regions reallocated 25%o

84、f water to better uses through policy adaptation,projected GDP growth in North Africa would decline by just 6%and improve in South Asia by 2%.The BCG Water Impact Matrix provides a way to map the environmental,economic,and social impacts of various water challenges,including too little water,too muc

85、h water,and too dirty water.(See Exhibit 5.)Deep WatersThe potential for climate mobility depends largely on water abundance or scarcity,and water quality.For this reason,forecasting the likelihood of climate-change-related droughts,floods,and storms can provide a clearer picture of future patterns

86、of climate mobility.To that end,we have created models of climate-induced changes in water pat-terns and the resulting internal and external movement of people for three of the five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSPs)detailed climate scenarios developed by the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Cha

87、nge(IPCC)over two time periods:2020 to 2030 and 2020 to 2050.(See“Three Pathways Forward.”)Although the risk of floods,droughts,and storms rises over time across all three SSP scenarios,the degree of risk varies significantly by region.(See Exhibit 6.)13 TO UNDERSTAND CLIMATE MOBILITY,FOLLOW THE WAT

88、ERSource:BCG and WWF analysis.Note:Water challenges can be both acute(e.g.,flash droughts)and chronic(e.g.,long-term water scarcity);both are considered here.Sources:World Bank Group,Climate Change Knowledge Portal;BCG analysis.Note:The three scenarios tracked in this exhibit are“Taking the Green Ro

89、ad”(strong and ongoing climate change mitigation efforts),“Middle of the Road”(a mix of global climate policies and moderate technological advances),and“Taking the Highway”(little or no climate change mitigation effort).Statistical downscaling applied using historical climate measurements.Exhibit 5-

90、The BCG Water Impact Matrix Can Reveal a Regions Impending Challenges as Climate Change Affects Water PatternsExhibit 6-Water Risk In 2050 Will Vary Considerably Depending on Success in Slowing Climate ChangeToo littleToo muchToo dirtyRiskVery high riskHigh riskMedium riskLow riskVery low riskQuanti

91、tyChallengeImpactQualityEconomicEnvironmentalSocialHeavy precipitation days(more than 20mm of liquid water)Taking the Green RoadMiddle of the RoadTaking the HighwayChange(%)50050Dry days(less than 1mm of liquid water)Taking the Green RoadMiddle of the RoadTaking the HighwayChange(%)50050BOSTON CONSU

92、LTING GROUP +CAMBRIDGE PEACESHAPING AND CLIMATE LAB 14The IPCCs socio-economic pathways(SSPs)are scenarios used to project the possible future impacts of climate change on the basis of different socio-economic develop-ments.They help illuminate how global society,demo-graphics,and economics might ch

93、ange over the next cen-tury and how these changes might affect greenhouse gas emissions and climate change.We use three pathways as the basis for our analysis of the likely extent of climate mobility:SSP1-2.6:Taking the Green RoadSustainability.This scenario assumes strong and ongoing mitigation eff

94、orts to reduce greenhouse gases,an emphasis on sustainable development,and high levels of technical innovation.It emphasizes respect for environmental boundaries and improved management of the global commons.Additional benefits include lower resource energy intensity and improved education and healt

95、h.SSP2-4.5:Middle of the RoadBusiness as Usual.This scenario assumes a peak emissions year of 2040,a mix of global climate policies,and moderate technolog-ical advances.Development and income growth will be uneven,and the environment will continue to degrade,but some improvements in resource and ene

96、rgy intensi-ty will occur.SSP5-8.5:Taking the HighwayFossil-Fueled Devel-opment.This scenario assumes little or no effort toward emissions mitigation,high dependence on fossil fuels,and limited advances in and adoption of green technol-ogies.Technological process will be rapid,with consider-able dev

97、elopment of human capital.Population growth will be high,and reliance on new climate solutions such as geo-engineering will increase.Three Pathways ForwardIn every climate change scenario,the risk of both internal and external involuntary displacement will increase over the coming decades.BOSTON CON

98、SULTING GROUP +CAMBRIDGE PEACESHAPING AND CLIMATE LAB 16FloodsThe expected number of days with more than 20 millime-ters of precipitation serves as a proxy for the risk of flood-ing in 2050.Africa,Australia,the Middle East,and Central Europe are most at risk of increased flooding across all three sc

99、enarios.Not surprisingly,under the Take the High-way scenariothe scenario envisaging little or no effort to mitigate the worst effects of climate changeevery conti-nent will experience an increase in flood risk of more than 50%.These sharp increases in the risk of flooding globally demonstrate the u

100、rgency of the situation,and the need to increase adaptation and water management measures in many parts of the world.Droughts We measured drought risk in 2050 by the number of pro-jected dry days per year.Central Europe,Latin America,and Southeast Asia are at highest risk for increased dry days,lead

101、ing to more exposure to water scarcity and drought;but West,Central and Southern Africa are also at significant risk.In contrast to floods,droughts are slow-onset events that take place over larger areas,making them more likely to cause external displacement.Water Quality The fact that both floods a

102、nd droughts drive the quality of water in a given locality complicates attempts to assess likely future changes in water quality.Flooding adversely impacts water quality mainly by damaging regional water supply and sanitation infrastructure.Droughts,on the other hand,put stress on water flows and in

103、crease the concentration of pollutants,minerals,and salinity in water.Areas with high population growth and urbanization rates,such as Nairobi and Mumbai,are likely to experience declining water quality,especially in neighborhoods or districts where water treatment facilities cannot keep up with inc

104、reased demand,and where rapidly growing popula-tions create more demand for food,and thus for increased agricultural activities.Rising temperatures and the overall impact of climate change on regional ecosystems can also affect water quali-ty.Among other phenomena,algal blooms and other bio-logical

105、changes can degrade water quality and hinder an ecosystems capacity to filter water and support life.The Nordics and Central Asia are likely to experience extreme temperature changes,especially under the Take the High-way scenario,exacerbating both climate-related hazards and disruption of the natur

106、al water cycle,leading to de-graded water quality.Who Will Be Displaced?Even under the most positive climate change scenario Taking the Green Roadwe project that the risk of both internal and external involuntary displacement will increase over the coming decades.But how much,and where it increases

107、will vary considerably depending on the success of global efforts to mitigate and adapt to global warming.Internal DisplacementAlready,climate change,together with geopolitical upheav-als and other causes,has increased the internal displace-ment of large numbers of people.From 2014 to 2020,the numbe

108、r of people forced to move within their countries borders every year increased by 14%,to almost 24 million.Under the worst-case Taking the Highway scenario,that figure would increase by up to 3%by 2030 and up to 33%by 2050,meaning that close to 32 million people would be forced to move annually.(See

109、 Exhibit 7.)In all three scenarios,the largest percentage increases in water-driven internal displacement are projected to occur in Asia,Northern Africa,and South America.Surprisingly,the scenarios project a decrease in relative internal dis-placement across central Africa,perhaps because of the ava

110、ilability of rivers that people can tap into as a stable water resource.Indias relative displacement is likely to decrease as well,but that is due to comparison to high baseline levels of displacement in 2020.Overall,the Global South will likely be more vulnerable to climate-change-induced displacem

111、ent than the Global North.In absolute terms,however,the most populous countries will face the highest number of internal displace-ments.This group includes the US,China,and India,all of which face the risk of more than 1 million annual displace-ments by 2050 under both the Middle of the Road and the

112、 Take the Highway scenarios.Small changes in relative displacement can have large absolute effects in very popu-lous countrieseven if,like the US,they are developed countries with strong resilience measures.17 TO UNDERSTAND CLIMATE MOBILITY,FOLLOW THE WATERExternal DisplacementMore than 10 million p

113、eople had to leave their countries in 2020,capping an overall increase in external displacement outflow of 2%since 2010.Looking forward,we expect exter-nal displacement outflow due to climate-related changes in water patterns to increase by as much as 2.8%by 2050,suggesting that more than 11 million

114、 people would be forced out of their home countries under the most severe climate scenario.(See Exhibit 8.)As significant as that figure is,it is considerably less than the corresponding projections for internal displacement.And this is not surprising,since most water-related displacement occurs int

115、ernally because of the typically local extent and impact of water issues.The largest numbers of externally displaced people will leave the US,India,China,and Venezuelano surprise given their sheer size.But when weighted for total popula-tion,Europe,Western Asia,and Greenland face the highest rates o

116、f external displacement.Globally,external displace-ment is likely to extend across many regions,with a high percentage also coming from Central Africa,Latin America,and New Zealand.Indeed,the global spread of water-related external displacement disrupts the narrative that water-related mobility is c

117、hiefly a problem of the Global South.We expect external water-driven displacement to be highest in regions that permit relatively free movement of people across borders and in regions with numerous smaller coun-tries,such as the EU.Source:BCGX model output.Note:Model output:internal displacement rel

118、ative to population;we estimate the population displaced by multiplying the model output by total country population.Final results obtained on 199 countries(data complete).Exhibit 7-The Number of People Displaced Internally Each Year Because of Climate Hazards Could Increase by More Than 30%by 2050P

119、eople internally displaced annually(millions)2020Taking the Green RoadMiddle of the RoadTaking the HighwayScenario:2030205023.7823.4524.8826.4323.8427.2031.630.26%14.37%33.01%BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP +CAMBRIDGE PEACESHAPING AND CLIMATE LAB 18Three Interdependent SolutionsBecause the driving force beh

120、ind climate mobility is largely water risks exacerbated by climate change,mitigating those risks is essential to developing a resilient society that can limit displacement.But focusing on water alone will not effectively mitigate the problem of climate mobility,because such a focus ignores the inter

121、dependencies between water and various economic,political,and social factors.Conse-quently,effective solutions must also address how to im-prove social resiliencethe combination of economic,political,and social conditions that enable a society to alleviate the circumstances that force people to move

122、.Achieving this goal will entail satisfying three strategic priori-ties,each of which requires systemic implementation as part of an overall social justice approach to the challenge(see Exhibit 9):Strategic Priorities for Water Resilience.Solutions that focus on mitigating water risks Social-Ecologi

123、cal Bridges.Solutions that can improve both water resilience and social resilience Strategic Priorities for Social Resilience.Solutions that can specifically improve social resilienceSource:BCGX model output.Note:Model output:cumulative migration outflow over five years range from bilateral internat

124、ional migration flow estimates updated and refined by sex;Guy J.Abel and Joel E.Cohen.Final results obtained on 199 countries(data complete).Exhibit 8-Annual External Displacement Could Increase by 3%by 2050Taking the Green RoadMiddle of the RoadTaking the HighwayPeople externally displaced annually

125、(millions)20202030205010.7110.8210.8310.8310.9811.0111.022.54%2.77%2.85%Scenario:19 TO UNDERSTAND CLIMATE MOBILITY,FOLLOW THE WATERStrategic Priorities for Water Resilience Mitigating the impact of changes in water patterns on cli-mate mobility isnt simply a matter of trying to reduce the extent of

126、flooding or counter the immediate physical im-pacts of storms and droughts.Building levees and engineer-ing massive irrigation projects are stopgap measures that do little to promote true water resilience.Instead,long-term solutions must work toward strengthen-ing natural resilience to the increasin

127、g impacts of changing water patterns and managing available water differently,with the help of a range of promising new technologies.Embrace nature-based solutions(NbS).The NbS cate-gory encompasses a variety of actions intended to restore,protect,and sustainably manage natural or modified eco-syste

128、ms while also addressing societal challenges and providing benefits to human well-being and biodiversity.Because nature-based solutions aim to solve societal challenges and benefit human well-being,they are general-ly inclusive solutions.(See Exhibit 10.)In contrast to engineered water projects,NbS

129、projects use the power of nature to adapt in the face of water-related events.For example,restoring the natural buffering capacity of mangrove swamps and wetlands can reduce the impact of storm surges and floods,and rebuilding floodplains along rivers can improve flood risk management by enhancing f

130、loodwater storage and conveyance.NbS can also lower the risk of harmful climate-change-induced water patterns by mitigating the process of global warming itself.Reforestation projects and conservation of existing forests can help absorb excess water while increasing carbon intake and storage.Source:

131、BCG analysis.Exhibit 9-Prioritizing Both Social Approaches and Ecological Approaches Is Critical to Creating Resilient SocietiesCreate resilient societiesthrough regenerative social andecological approachesSystemic-level interventions that integrate social justice approachesStrategic priorities forw

132、ater resilienceSocial-ecological bridgesStrategic priorities forsocial resilienceHarness the power offit-for-purpose technologyPromote local action that utilizes indigenous and local community knowledgeCreate flexibleinstitutions.that build trust by developing fit-for-purpose policy and laws for a c

133、hanging climateReimagine financingand donor frameworksStimulate social extrapreneurshipClose the gap betweenacademics and practitionersManage water as part of the commons through enhanced valuation,pricing,and water allocationBuild infrastructure that works with nature to increase resilience and res

134、tore ecosystemsBOSTON CONSULTING GROUP +CAMBRIDGE PEACESHAPING AND CLIMATE LAB 20In addition to reducing the direct causes of climate mobili-ty,NbS can improve social resilience by helping provide the means to sustain and diversify livelihoods.For example,sustainable management of natural resources

135、such as forests provides multiple streams of income for communi-ties,including the use of local labor to plant trees and restore and maintain habitats.Enhancing the natural water cycle through reforestation of watersheds increases the amount of water available for agriculture,thereby increas-ing foo

136、d security.Maintaining the health of natural sys-tems can also help preserve a communitys cultural and spiritual ties to its surrounding ecosystem,and improve social resilience when planners integrate and co-develop NbS efforts with local communities,using local knowledge.Treat water as part of the

137、commons.Like the open,communal pasturelands of old,the commons refers to any shared but limited resourcesuch as wildlife,biodiversity,and even airthat is accessible to all members of a com-munity or society.Water is a perfect example.Safe and usable water should be accessible to all,and accordingly

138、the UN has declared water access a human right;but water is limited,and exploitation or pollution of water by some users can restrict or deny access to the resource by others.The solution is to manage water as a commonly held resource rather than as a commodity to be exploited for private profit.In

139、doing so,those responsible for water management can benefit from using a local or regional lensalthough global targets can also foster transbound-ary or regional collaboration.Managing water as a common resource requires implement-ing socially equitable water pricing to ensure that all mem-bers of t

140、he community have access to it and to avoid water exploitation,even if this means exercising some degree of price discrimination based on capacity and volume.Accounting for the true value of water ensures that it will be appreciated properly and allocated fairly,and discourag-es its overextraction b

141、y industry or agriculture.Innovative,socially equitable pricing structures tailored to their con-texts already exist,but they must be implemented in order to build trust in governance structures.Focus on fit-for-purpose technology.Various digital tools and platforms can enhance the efficiency,produc

142、tivi-ty,and innovation of resilience and adaptation solutions across the water value chain.These include sourcing and distribution technologies,such as water storage and streamflow forecasting,real-time water quality monitoring,cost-effective desalination,and digital leak detection and monitoring;pr

143、ecision irrigation and farming techniques and connected water meters to monitor usage;and cost-efficient wastewater processing and reclamation.Source:Adapted from the WWF report Waterways to Resilience(2021).Exhibit 10-In Many Cases,Nature-Based Solutions Can Build Resilience Better Than Engineered

144、Water Solutions CanRisk-based engineering approachesResilient,nature-based systemsWater management proceeds from a risk-based perspective,as planners reactively try to reduce the risk of extreme water hazards.Water systems are at the core of engineered water solutions,reducing biodiversity and under

145、mining ecosystems and sustainable development.Planners transition to a proactive,opportunity-driven and resilience-based perspective,combining nature-based solutions and engineered water infrastructureThey prioritize development of nature-based water systems to address societal challenges for people

146、,businesses,and the planetDevelop increasingly large ditches andlevees to reduce the risk of flooding,therebydegrading local ecosystems.Provide required room for theriver,decreasing the risk offlooding and rechargingunderground water suppliesDevelop natural sponges,reducingthe risk of flooding and i

147、ncreasingbiodiversity 21 TO UNDERSTAND CLIMATE MOBILITY,FOLLOW THE WATERStrategic Priorities for Social ResilienceImproving water resilience alone will not solve the chal-lenge of water-related climate mobility.Boosting social resilience is key to ensuring that gains in water resilience are long-las

148、ting and that the benefits are shared through-out communities.Gaining these benefits requires creating flexible institutions,developing policies to manage climate change,and promoting action at the local level.Create flexible institutions.Changes in water patterns are unpredictable,and could become

149、even more so as the planet continues to warm.In response,public institutions must respond more dynamically and flexibly to a changing climate and to sudden water-related events that could trigger climate mobility.This entails reviewing policies and regulations regularly to detect and mitigate unnece

150、ssary bureaucracy and unduly stringent regulations that could hamper a rapid response as conditions change in both the short and the long term,or that could slow the implementation of new social or techno-logical solutions.Reducing bureaucratic hurdles,in particu-lar,can facilitate the development o

151、f market-based solu-tions.Likewise,considering technologically innovative solutions to water problems,rather than viewing water management exclusively through the traditional engineering lens,can encourage more investment in private sector R&D.Develop fit-for-purpose policies.Given the uncertain but

152、 dramatic impacts of a changing climate,policies must be fit-for-purpose to respond consistently and effectively.That means designing them to avoid situations in which solutions have conflicting goals,such as subsidies that prioritize economic gains over environmental and social needs.It also means

153、ensuring that they are adaptable,arise out of collaborative development with all stakeholder groups,and actively promote R&D and innovation.Starting from a climate justice perspective can facilitate the devel-opment of fit-for-purpose policies.To avoid conflicts and ensure effectiveness,policymakers

154、 could avoid policy and organizational fragmentation across climate mobility,development,natural resource manage-ment,and water services,and they could ensure consistent policy implementation in light of mandates of all institution-al actors.Finally,they could explicitly integrate climate mobility i

155、ssues into all relevant policy frameworks.Promote local action.The adverse effects of water-related disasters are typically very localized,so reducing their impact on climate mobility requires understanding,guid-ance,and action at the local level.To maximize local input,policymakers could embrace lo

156、cal forms of governance that integrate indigenous and community knowledge across planning,policy,and infrastructure implementa-tions.Local and informal community governance can be integrated into formal governance structures,and mea-sures to promote innovation and resilience can consider historical

157、indigenous solutions and seek to integrate them into modern practices and technology,leading to greater trust and broader local uptake of initiatives and solutions.Social-Ecological BridgesThis category of solutions,which includes remedies applicable to increasing water resilience and to boosting so

158、cial resilience,aims to encourage collaboration by all stakeholders.Close the gap between academics and practitioners.Research and new knowledge should end up in the hands of those on the ground who are responsible for delivering results.But researchers and practitioners who are directly involved in

159、 water-related action and policy often speak a different language and have different methods and goals.Collaboration and practitioner-informed research is neces-sary to improve communication between the two groups.To that end,academics could craft their findings and re-sults to maximize their practi

160、cal applicability,and practi-tioners could offer guidance to academics regarding re-search priorities that are most likely to enhance impact in the field.An explicitly community-centric approach that promotes collaboration between academics and practi-tioners from the community is essential to ident

161、ifying and meeting specific community needs.Stimulate social extrapreneurship.Complex problems demand a multisectoral approach.To that end,the concept of social extrapreneurship has evolved to encourage collab-oration beyond and between company and industry boundaries,as a“coalition of doers”engaged

162、 in a partner-ship that does more than simply coordinate different sets of activities.BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP +CAMBRIDGE PEACESHAPING AND CLIMATE LAB 22Reimagine financing and donor frameworks.Innova-tive financing mechanisms will be necessary to fund the new technologies and NbS actions needed to l

163、imit the impact of water-related issues on climate mobility,since traditional modes of finance may not be applicable.The effort will require a combination of financial instruments,including loans,grants,banking products,government guarantees,and alternatives such as biodiversity and carbon credits.A

164、ggregated financing mechanisms will be necessary to drive impact at the scale needed.In addition the financing must reach local,community-based institutions to improve agency,build trust,and deliver local impact,while avoiding unintended conse-quences such as microfinancing programs pushing com-muni

165、ties into debt.Getting this aspect of planning right will require mandates that provide the flexibility needed to deliver adequate financing to those who need it.Finally,climate financing must be patient enough to allow for payoffs that may not occur until years in the future,and it must be oriented

166、 to the needs of those executing the projects,not just to the financial outcome of the funded projects.Taking ActionTo achieve these solutions,actors across the public and private sectors,financial institutions,NGOs,academia,and civil society could consider taking a number of key actions,which will

167、require collaboration across all sectors.Public Sector ActorsGovernments can strive to strengthen the legal and policy frameworks needed to integrate NbS into national policy and to accelerate their implementation.At the local level,systemic,community-centric policy frameworks and fund-ing instrumen

168、ts will be necessary to further solutions,including the implementation of equitable water pricing reform.Governments can also work across borders to form regional macro-level policy frameworks that support ground-level action.Private Sector ActorsCompanies in the private sphere could consider invest

169、ing in new adaptation and resilience technologies to de-risk investments in NbS.As water issues gain in importance,companies could integrate water into their business strate-gy,with specific targets for its use and programs for report-ing progress against the targets.Companies that depend heavily on

170、 water could prioritize water-focused R&D,set science-based targets for its use,and disclose its water-re-lated risks.Financial Institutions.Banks and international financial institutions could work with governments,the private sector,and local communities to develop new fit-for-purpose financing in

171、struments tailored to the specific needs of NbS and water resilience-related technologies.Nongovernmental Organizations.NGOs can take ad-vantage of on-the-ground learning and experience to pro-vide guidance on key areas of academic research and then implement the systemic solutions developed in coll

172、abora-tion with academics and community practitioners.They can work through existing local and traditional governance structures to maintain community engagement,and coor-dinate their donor networks to aggregate and channel financing to the most effective water-related solutions,reaching those who n

173、eed it most.Academics.Academics can conduct localized research,in collaboration with other actors,to steer and inform their work,such as by helping to guide governments in selecting the most effective and appropriate form of water price differentiation for a given region.By highlighting local and in

174、digenous knowledge as a credible and important re-source,they can help promote community-centric ap-proaches to solving water problems.Civil Society and Communities.Local communities could actively engage in policymaking as co-developers policy and potential solutions that reflect their particular n

175、eeds,using local community governance structures.Local and indigenous knowledge is an invaluable resource,and local communities can gather and share it with other social extrapreneurs.Common Problems Require Common SolutionsNo one anywhere in the world is truly safe from changes in water patterns as

176、 a result of climate change.Floods,droughts,and storms can affect anyone at any time,and their likely increase in frequency and severity will only heighten the risk.Although the immediate causes of water issues may be local,their effects can be far-reaching,in the form of pollution,food insecurity,a

177、nd rising sea levelsall of which can lead to further displacement.In short,climate mobility is everyones problem.And the only way to mitigate its causes and effects is through wider cross-sector collaboration to develop,fund,and carry out the solutions needed.Wider cross-sector collaboration is esse

178、ntial to develop,fund,and carry out solutions to mitigate the causes and effects of climate mobility.BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP +CAMBRIDGE PEACESHAPING AND CLIMATE LAB 24Appendix:Methodology A key goal of this report is to identify high-risk countries where water risk(too much,too little,or too dirty)i

179、s signifi-cant and where we project high levels of internal and external mobility.The methodology included two steps.First,we used historical data to find areas of high correla-tion between mobility and water risks.Second,we used machine learning tools to predict areas of future water risk,in order

180、to identify where mobility is likely to be highest.Step 1:Historical Correlation MappingWe began by mapping country-by-country flood,drought,and water quality risks based on an aggregate score that we derived from the BCG Water Matrix.We used this ag-gregate score to determine which countries are at

181、 high risk overall.Flood risk combines both riverine and coastal flood risk.We computed drought risk on the basis of the World Resources Institutes Aqueduct drought risk exposure index.We measured water quality by aggregating waste-water quality metrics and coastal eutrophication potential measureme

182、nts.We correlated our findings with historical internal and external mobility data from 2014 to 2022.We measured internal mobility at a country level,based on computations of actual and relative internal displacements by climate hazards,in line with the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centres disas

183、ter definitions(storms,floods,droughts,wildfires,and extreme temperatures).We based our calcu-lations of external mobility on actual and relative country-level outflows from 2014 to 2022.Step 2:Predictive MappingTo predict future climate mobility related to changes in water patterns,we applied a Ran

184、dom Forest machine learning approach,using three IPCC scenarios:Taking the Green Road,Middle of the Road,and Taking the Highway.(See“Three Pathways Forward.”)We considered both climate and socio-economic factors in analyzing internal and external displacement.From this analysis,we com-piled internal

185、 and external displacement results at a coun-try level,making relevant assumptions to correct for any limitations of the data sets.Although the report incorpo-rates modeling,it does not aim to advance a deterministic account of future climate mobility.25 TO UNDERSTAND CLIMATE MOBILITY,FOLLOW THE WAT

186、ERAbout the Authors Torsten Kurth is a managing director and senior partner in the Berlin office of Boston Consulting Group.You may contact him by email at .Ann Balzarolo is a lead data scientist in BCGs Sydney office.You may contact her by email at .Lamia Skalli is a data scientist in BCGs Casablan

187、ca office.You may contact her by email at .Fhulu Netsianda is a business analyst in BCGs Johannesburg office.You may contact her by email at .Sophie Harbour is a PhD student in the University of Cambridge Department of Politics and International Studies.You may contact her by email at seh220cam.ac.u

188、k.Dean Muruven is an associate director in the firms Johannesburg office.You may contact him by email at .Emma Clemens is a consultant in the firms Johannesburg office.You may contact her by email at .Julia Huysamer is an associate in the firms Johannesburg office.You may contact her by email at .Pr

189、ofessor Neil Stott is Management Practice Professor of Social Innovation at Cambridge Judge Business School(CJBS),at the University of Cambridge.You may contact him by email at n.stottjbs.cam.ac.uk.For Further ContactIf you would like to discuss this report,please contact the authors.Acknowledgments

190、The authors would like to thank Selda Dagistanli,Jarrod Pendlebury,Lucy Caines,Peter Waring,Samantha Murphy,Nicole Helwig,Tiril Rahn,Janet Rogan,David Durand-Delacre,Aline van Driessche,Kenza Tazi,Dr.Robert Rouse,Daniella Bostrom,Richard Lee,and Sibi Lawson-Marriott for their contributions.Cambridge

191、 Peaceshaping and Climate LabAt the University of Cambridges Peaceshaping and Climate Lab,we aim to stimulate versatile research,facilitate effective knowledge transfer and support informed practitioner action.The Lab fosters an interdisciplinary space which prioritises bridge-building and collabora

192、tive action to address the overlaps in climate change and human conflict.We explore cutting edge research and coordinate partnerships within and beyond academia in order to support the work of the wider peaceshaping community.We take a proactive approach,encouraging the pursuit of opportunities for

193、resilience building and adaption that prevent the need to rely on outdated and inadequate reactive policy and action.Our activities are guided by the belief that inclusive social innovation,which is suited to and inspired by local knowledge,will ensure that societies are equipped to deal with climat

194、e shifts across a variety of contexts.The Cambridge Peaceshaping and Climate Lab is part of the Cambridge Centre for Social Innovation.We nurture research opportunities by refining our understanding of social innovation and implementing approaches to address social,cultural,economic,and environmenta

195、l challenges and opportunities.A central tenet of the Centre is to bring academics and practitioners together to enhance understanding of,and the impact of social innovation.Our core aim is to facilitate meaningful real-world impact.Boston Consulting Group 2024.All rights reserved.9/24 For informati

196、on or permission to reprint,please contact BCG at .To find the latest BCG content and register to receive e-alerts on this topic or others,please visit .Follow Boston Consulting Group on Facebook and X(formerly known as Twitter).Boston Consulting GroupBoston Consulting Group partners with leaders in

197、 business and society to tackle their most important challenges and capture their greatest opportunities.BCG was the pioneer in business strategy when it was founded in 1963.Today,we work closely with clients to embrace a transformational approach aimed at benefiting all stakeholdersempowering organ

198、izations to grow,build sustainable competitive advantage,and drive positive societal impact.Our diverse,global teams bring deep industry and functional expertise and a range of perspectives that question the status quo and spark change.BCG delivers solutions through leading-edge management consultin

199、g,technology and design,and corporate and digital ventures.We work in a uniquely collaborative model across the firm and throughout all levels of the client organization,fueled by the goal of helping our clients thrive and enabling them to make the world a better place.27 TO UNDERSTAND CLIMATE MOBILITY,FOLLOW THE WATER