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1、The state of global insurance in 2024Photo by Tarek AlKarsah Kearney,DubaiBut its not only environmental pressures that are rocking the industry.Transformative forces related to political and economic turbulence,societal shifts,and the phenomenal pace of technology development have also combined to

2、upend the insurance landscape,putting portfolios and profitability under even more strain and leaving insurance leaders at a loss about which(figurative)fire to tackle first.In this sort of environment,traditional transformation approaches just arent going to cut it.The world is changing before our

3、very eyes,which means that being resilient to disruption is no longer enough.Instead,the insurer of the future will need to take a more regenerative approach in which continued,systemic transformation becomes the norm.In this paper,we discuss the major trends and uncertainties shaping insurance toda

4、y,outline how these are impacting the insurance value chain,and introduce our six golden rules for leaders as they set out to regenerate their own organizations.Six golden rules for regenerating the insurance business model.To say that insurance is at a tipping point would be an understatement.Sever

5、al mega trends are acting on the industry in four areas,with deep implications across the entire value chain.To meet the moment and ensure their businesses have a future,insurers must move beyond being resilient to disruption.Instead,whats required is the ability to stay nimble and deliver continued

6、,systemic transformationor,as we call it,regeneration.In this paper,we discuss the forces at play,anticipate whats coming down the line,and outline a way forward for leaders through this decade of uncertainty and beyond.On 30 October 2023,fire broke out in California.The Highland fire is not the wor

7、st to have struck the state by any means,but by the time it was contained,it had consumed 2,487 acres and forced more than 4,000 residents to flee their homes.The fire started just over a month after the state and wildfire insurance companies reached an agreement on issuing new policies in disaster-

8、prone areas across California.In exchange for bringing on policyholders from the states insurance plan of last resort,insurers will be able to use forward-looking catastrophe modeling when they set their rates,which consumer advocates have argued will lead to higher premiums.The insurance commission

9、ers office is currently developing regulations on how the new models can be used to set rates.With wildfires happening more frequently and causing more widespread damage,this type of balancing act is one that will start to become more familiar as climate change brings new extremes of heat,drought,an

10、d rainfall to countries around the world.Whats required is the ability to stay nimble and deliver continued,systemic transformationor,as we call it,regeneration.1The state of global insurance in 2024Source:Kearney analysisFigure 1Four major trends are shaping the insurance marketThe environmentPolit

11、ics andeconomicsSocietyTechnologyA pivotal race to climate change adaptationUncertainty on theclean energy pathA repetition of pandemics and other threats for healthStranded segmentsof societyProtracted stagnationGeopolitical tensions:a new cold war on the horizon?Privacy dilemmaAn aging populationM

12、igration flowsNew consumptionpatternsPost-truthbeyond politicsA post-digital worldSociety in searchof meaningExtremedigitalizationMobility electrification and self-drivingAn era of artificial intelligenceThe new age ofgenetic manipulationThe race for quantum computingCentral bank digital currencies

13、going mainstreamFour main sources of influence and uncertainty are set to cause long-term disruption in the insurance market(see figure 1):Insurers are stepping into a decade of uncertainty 2The state of global insurance in 2024Another factor casting a shadow over insurance firms strategies is the p

14、ossibility of the 360 disruption that future pandemics and other health threats might bring.Speaking at the Time 100 Summit in 2022,for example,Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates put the odds of another pandemic within 20 years at more than 50 percent.The situation has also spurred health service innov

15、ation in digital therapeutics,mental wellness,health tech,and telemedicine.Implications for insurers.The main challenge here is securing the technical balance in underwriting.As the need for coverage grows,spurred on by local regulators,this presents a big opportunity for insurers.However,the growin

16、g frequency,uncertainty,and severity of catastrophic events put overall business sustainability into question.New risk models are needed,as is a more tenable distribution of risk and value across insurers,re-insurers,and alternative risk transfer systems.New market opportunities are also emerging as

17、 client demands change,particularly regarding health services.This requires insurers to play a new role and evolve their traditional offerings in terms of both coverage and more pure service solutions.The environmentTwo major trends are affecting insurers from an environmental perspective.Beyond ext

18、reme weather events,changes in environmental conditions have kickstarted a pivotal race to climate change adaptation as businesses seek to maintain their competitiveness and resilience to disruption.Related to this,there is continued uncertainty on the path to clean energy.Along with presenting a ne

19、w risk profile in terms of new technologies,property,and infrastructure,it remains unclear how or when the transition will actually happen.Although global investment in renewables reached a record high of nearly$500 billion in 2022(see figure 2),this is less than a third of whats needed each year.In

20、 parallel,global disruptions in energy markets,from skyrocketing prices to supply chain challenges and geopolitical conflicts,have placed both clean energy goals and economic stability in question.Sources:ABC Company;Kearney analysisFigure 2Global investments in renewables are on the riseCapital exp

21、enditures for renewables($billion)2015Onshore wind2016201720182019202020212022195230250215240295360495Offshore windSolar photovoltaic40%7%53%47%11%42%39%14%47%46%8%46%49%9%42%48%8%44%50%43%39%56%5%7%3The state of global insurance in 2024SocietyChanging demographics,most notably from an aging populat

22、ion,are also leaving their mark.With the trend skewing older(almost 10 percent of the global population was aged 65 or above in 2020,compared with around 5 percent in 1960)and people living longer,businesses will have to cater for an older customer base and contribute to a broader rethink of social

23、support(see figure 3 on page 5).As political crises,climate change,poverty,and conflict continue to damage peoples lives,global migration has been steadily increasing.According to the World Development Report 2023,about 184 million people(2.3 percent of the worlds population)are living outside of th

24、eir country of nationality,resulting in demand for new types of insurance and a different employment mix.At the same time,insurers have a variety of new consumption patterns and preferences to wrangle with:In light of rising prices and inflation,a general disinclination to buy has combined with a gr

25、owing interest in secondhand goods,meaning the market is set to expand at a compound annual growth rate(CAGR)of 13.6 percent until 2031.A search for meaning has endowed the public with more care for social responsibility and the environment as well as the promises of the companies they deal with.Pol

26、itics and economicsIn terms of political and economic influences,a plethora of economic crises have intensified global poverty and inequality in recent years.These stranded sections of society are not insignificant:for instance,about 9 percent of working people in Europe now live below the poverty l

27、ine,while low-skilled workers face additional difficulties due to other trends including outsourcing,automation,and lack of job security.Elsewhere,ongoing economic stagnation has caused growth to slow to an expected 2.9 percent in 2024.Coupled with rising inflation,this has tightened monetary polici

28、es,making it more difficult for businesses to remain competitive.Other global influences causing continuing uncertainty include geopolitical tensions such as the RussiaUkraine and IsraelHamas wars,which are prompting superpowers to define political blocs and expand their national self-sufficiency.Wh

29、ile companies might benefit from local investment,they must equally navigate new risks.Finally,the rise of digitalization has brought about a privacy dilemma as governments prioritize data protection and cybersecurity.In fact,71 percent of countries have data privacy legislation in place,and this is

30、 expected to expand,which will affect businesses around the world.Implications for insurers.Maintaining growth and profitability is the primary issue for insurance firms.The immediate impact of inflation on the cost of claims is far outstripping the rate at which average premiums are adapting,while

31、consumer and business spend rates remain low.In parallel,rising interest rates have driven solvency capital requirements down,creating competition with alternative investment solutions such as government bonds,raising the cost of capital for life businesses.Elsewhere,geopolitical tensions and data r

32、equirements and regulations have increased the complexity of providing cover,meaning more specialized solutions and services to support large corporations and small and medium-size enterprises(SMEs)as they navigate an environment characterized by uncertainty.4The state of global insurance in 2024Sou

33、rces:United Nations;Kearney analysisFigure 3In 2020,almost 10 percent of the world population was 65 or olderGlobal population age 65 and above 1960196519701975198019851990199520002005201020209.6%5.0%2015Implications for insurers.Insurers will need to find new ways.The customer base is rapidly evolv

34、ing,and traditional offerings arent able to cover certain segments,such as the elderly,because of high complexity in risk underwriting.Its a similar situation with global migration,which is introducing unfamiliar needs and risk profiles,while the advent of synthetic media has raised the likelihood o

35、f more fraudulent activity along with stronger international regulations and requirements to manage this.In our post-digital world,where electronic tools,systems,devices,and resources are so embedded that consumers have come to expect them as standard,in-person connections still count.In fact,severa

36、l studies have found that younger insurance customers prefer human interaction,particularly for complex products.Last but not least,synthetic media is advancing,which has opened up the potential for deepfakes and artificial intelligence(AI)to fabricate scenarios,events,documents,and even identities,

37、which companies will have to defend themselves against.5The state of global insurance in 20241 Passenger cars and light commercial vehicles up to 3.5 tons2 Including plug-in hybrid electric,full hybrid,and mild hybrid vehicles3 Battery electric vehicles,including fuel cellSources:S&P September 2023,

38、expert interviews,Kearneys“More futures in the mobility ahead”for Futurmotive;Kearney analysisOnly internal combustion enginesHybrid2Battery electric vehicles320232025f2030f2035fGlobal share of electric vehicles production1Figure 4By 2030,almost half of global vehicle production is expected to be fu

39、lly electric14%20%66%48%25%18%21%61%47%28%28%24%TechnologyWe have already highlighted how digital tools are influencing privacy and security concerns,but more broadly,we are now looking at an era of extreme digitalization,in which new worlds are being shaped by immersive realities such as the metave

40、rse,which is predicted to be worth more than$1.3 trillion by 2030.This will have sweeping consequences for companies commercial and operating models and how they do business.Mobility is set to be fundamentally altered as the shift to electrification and self-driving continues.For example,47 percent

41、of vehicles produced globally in 2030 are expected to be fully electric(see figure 4).As such,vehicles will be more expensive to buy and maintain,requiring new competencies and a shift in focus when it comes to critical spare parts,such as batteries.Coming back to AI,along with helping to automate a

42、nd optimize many business processes,new breakthroughs in this area include generative models such as ChatGPT,which can produce content and carry out human-like conversations,leading to supersonic adoption rates.Ownership and the ethical use of customer data are already becoming contested as a result

43、.6The state of global insurance in 2024Of course,advances in technology are ripe with uncertainty for all organizations.However,for insurers,the race for quantum computing,which is expected to be a$6.53 billion market by 2030,could result in extraordinary efficiency gains,thanks to the technologys a

44、bility to perform complex calculations at speeds far beyond traditional computers,and enable crucial real-time decisions.New advances in genetic manipulation are redefining the landscape for human health,agriculture,high technology,the environment,and beyond.For human health,the implications are str

45、iking,from curing or eradicating diseases to developing new vaccines.For instance,recent clinical trials based on CRISPR,the highly precise genetic editing technology,are underway in several areas,including efforts to cure cancer,blindness,AIDS,cystic fibrosis,and a range of blood disorders.The last

46、 great uncertainty for insurers concerns digital currencies.These are now hitting the mainstream,with 80 percent of central banks acknowledging their potential to reduce costs and make payments more transparent.Implications for insurers.Effective integration and effective partnerships are the keys t

47、o success when it comes to new technologies,which hold great potential to supercharge insurers organizational structures,processes,and ways of working,making them more efficient in their day-to-day operations.They offer a broad sweep of enhancements across many areas,including risk assessment,underw

48、riting,claims processing and adjustment,fraud detection,and even customer engagement,assuming mature chatbots and virtual assistants can convince consumers they have enough of the human touch.AI also heralds a new era of personalized insurance models,with vast data lakes enabling faster,more accurat

49、e pricing,risk assessments,and claims resolution.Both traditional businesses such as healthcare,where genetic innovations have opened up new possibilities in underwriting,and more innovative entrants,such as cybersecurity,are expected to benefit significantly from these developments.Finally,tech dis

50、ruption is also creating a new ecosystem of partners and competitors,encompassing insurtech and start-ups,big digital players,and organizations across sectors that are leveraging their digital capabilities and customer relationships.This is shifting the competitive landscape in a new direction,and i

51、nsurers will have to findand defendtheir place within it.In short,taking all of these developments into consideration,the world looks very different to insurers than it did even a few years agoand it will continue to change even more dramatically over the coming decade.Many of the issues we have dis

52、cussed are making insurance coverage more necessary for individuals and businesses,just as they become riskier and more expensive for insurers to provide.But equally,others offer the chance to develop innovative new products that meet developing needs and transform how insurance is provided.7The sta

53、te of global insurance in 2024Source:Kearney analysisFigure 5Insurers face five major challenges across the value chainGrowth and profitability in economic and environmental uncertaintyThe need to build and respond to more complex operations and regulations while enabling organizations and processes

54、 to integrate new technologiesA new ecosystem of partners and competitors changing how the insurance business operatesOpportunities to develop new markets,products,services,and business models Higher expectations and standards in customer care and corporate social responsibilityFive challenges,one b

55、ig opportunity Looking at where these changes will make themselves felt,we can see significant impacts across every link in the insurance value chain.In summary,we see five major sources of both challenge and opportunity(see figure 5).But the biggest opportunity of all will be using these developmen

56、ts as a springboard to shape the insurance model of the futurebecause the strongest,healthiest businesses will be those that move to regenerative ways of thinking,ensuring survival and success during the next decade of uncertainty and beyond.8The state of global insurance in 2024Rethinking the value

57、 chain Weve looked at the major influences and developments heralding this crucial shift.But the truth is that without practical action,there is no transformation.It can be hard to know where to start when the challenge youre facing is this big,hairy,and audacious.But in our experience,it starts wit

58、h rethinking the value chain.Risk management and underwritingUnderwriting gets a makeover.As risks from various sources proliferate,such as those associated with threats to health,inflation,and international trade,insurers will need a new approach that goes across multiple lines of business.Better u

59、nderwriting capabilities will also be needed,particularly for SMEs,which have specific needs and different risk profiles compared with larger companies and also lack the organizational solutions to manage risk.Meanwhile,niche businesses such as surety and credit risk are expected to grow,as rising i

60、nternational economic and political uncertainties threaten contractual obligations and insured parties ability to pay.This will require a more sophisticated underwriting approach that uses a broader data set.Coinsurance and reinsurance consolidate their role of stabilizing forces.As interconnected e

61、conomies face more uncertainty from the double whammy of competing geopolitical forces and more frequent catastrophic events,coinsurance and reinsurance will come into their own as a way to spread the responsibility for insurance expenditure and risk.As such,they will become a competitive element fo

62、r risk underwriting.Technology takes center stage.Large datasets,analytics,and new data sources(for example,satellite imagery)will become more important in risk underwriting to sustain insurance firms profitability,while quantum computing will supercharge analytical models and how data is managed.9T

63、he state of global insurance in 2024The offering modelCore protection needs evolve.The ability to provide modular products covering basic components will be essential to targeting and retaining lower-spend customers with particular needs.Core protection,such as income support for employees,freelance

64、rs,and micro-companies,along with access to critical services such as healthcare,will assume more prominence,with the focus across products and services fixed on living and aging well.Finding new solutions to cover the aging populationwith a mix of traditional products and pure serviceswill be cruci

65、al to stay relevant in the new setup of the population.Flexibility pushes core offerings.For retail and SME customers,being able to guarantee flexible payment methods,installments,and financing will become even more important.Consequently,embedding insurance solutions into the purchase experience of

66、 other services,such as long-term vehicle rentals,will become more prominent,supporting a brand new“insurance as a service”value proposition.Fast-moving tech accelerates new service development.With telehealth and remote diagnosis becoming the norm and new innovative diagnostic and treatment options

67、 such as genetic manipulation emerging,health insurance will be pushed into a whole new realm.Additionally,services based on real-time data collection will become more widespread and integrated with offerings for business customers across multiple sectors.Examples include agriculture and shipping,wh

68、ere analytics can help predict issues before they arise,shed light on and mitigate risks such as weather patterns or maintenance cycles,and enhance underwriting and claims processes.Insurtech will play a significant role in tech-based offering models by enabling new customer experiences.ESG becomes

69、an advantage.With all eyes on environmental,social,and governance(ESG)concerns,the floor is open for insurers to introduce new and improved products related to environmental damage and social issues,such as those that support parents if a child falls ill and the parents are unable to work,and those

70、providing welfare coverage for families with same-sex,same-gender,or LGBTQ+parents,which is currently not available in several countries.Claims and operationsNew technologies transform operations.As weve discussed,as quantum computing evolves,methods for processing claims and preventing fraud will b

71、enefit from new capabilities such as image analysis,while operational efficiency is enhanced overall.Other innovations include embedding value-added services into policies,such as using IoT water monitoring capabilities to optimize agriculture,which will support real-time claim processing in multipl

72、e business settings.Insurtech solutions will also boost automation and efficiencies across this area.Collaboration moves to a whole new level.In the new insurance world,theres no room for silos.Instead,operational models will be built around collaboration,bringing in everyone the process touches,whe

73、ther its a motor repair shop,glazier,health professional,or someone elseall the way from policy design to reporting and reviews.Security is an entry-level requirement.As weve alluded to,cyber threats are only going to become more sophisticated,meaning insurance companies and their assets will need t

74、o keep upping the ante on data protection and privacy.10The state of global insurance in 2024Sales and distributionPayers become consulting partners.As risks and uncertainties snowball,insurers will go from holding the purse strings to taking a more consultative approach that spans the full risk spe

75、ctrum across multiple lines of business.AI and automation will support this shift by improving the digital customer experience across all channels,enabling insurers to maintain customer relationships more efficiently.Omnichannel,simplified.Many customers want the human touch.But sometimes,digital ca

76、n do better.For standard queries and information,insurers will move away from human interaction and embrace more digital,self-serve experiences.The(remote)human touch will be added to some online purchasing and service interactions,while in-person,physical contact will be reserved for the most impor

77、tant and sensitive situations.As time goes on,insurtech solutions such as these will become more integrated with the entire omnichannel approach.Theres a lot going on,to put it mildly.And its obvious that as the insurance ecosystem transforms,the role of the insurerand the system itselfwill take a n

78、ew shape.So what exactly will change?As the insurance ecosystem transforms,the role of the insurerand the system itselfwill take a new shape.11The state of global insurance in 2024Resyncing the ecosystem All these big changes in the traditional insurance value chain will also push insurers to go fro

79、m standalone players to ecosystem orchestrators.As the landscape becomes more complex,the ability to work across an increasingly large set of stakeholders and partners will push some out in front as they pursue new,integrated solutions.Equally,the ecosystem orchestrators of the future will excel at

80、vertical integration with pure service providers in key lines of business.This will enable them to make inroads in areas such as telehealth and disease prevention,sharpen their competitive edge with standout products and services,and target groups that could otherwise be excluded from insurance cove

81、rage,such as the elderly and people on low incomes.So now we know what the drivers of change are and where they are likely to show up in the insurance ecosystem.But how can leaders harness them for future growth?Big changes in the traditional value chain will push insurers from standalone players to

82、 ecosystem orchestrators.12The state of global insurance in 2024Source:Kearney analysisFigure 6Six moves can transform the insurance industryKearneys six golden rulesfor regenerationApply your peripheral vision.Concentrate on your strengths.Bring everyone with you.Understand what you can influencean

83、d what you cant.Get real.Stay on top of developments.Six golden rules for regeneration Nobody is saying this will be easy.But in our long history of consulting,what weve consistently excelled at is helping organizations move from ambition to action,creating lasting impact.This is no exception,so her

84、e are our six golden rules for regenerating the insurance business model(see figure 6).Apply your peripheral vision.To be an ecosystem orchestrator,you need to deeply understand the ecosystem.Pursue external perspectivesacross geographies,industries,generations,and more.Bring your partners and other

85、 players inside the tent.And discover what you can achieve together.13The state of global insurance in 2024Concentrate on your strengths.This is the time to zero in on what you do best as you create opportunities for growth.Dont be shy,and dont shy away from the fact that you wont be number one acro

86、ss the board.Spotlight what shines.Bring everyone with you.Develop this journey with your leadership team to define one common vision.Then,share it with the wider organization and ecosystem to make sure everyone understands and is on the same page.Understand what you can influenceand what you cant.B

87、e 100 percent clear on where you can capitalize,what you can defend,what you can mitigate on your ownand where youll need help from others.Get real.This is all about facts.Not conjecture,not opinion,and not pet theories.Develop a deep understanding of whats going on,where trends are heading,and how

88、theyre likely to impact you and your customers.Then create scenarios that plan for multiple eventualities and give you room for maneuver.Stay on top of developments.Things are moving fast,which requires constant attention.Dont let up:monitor the indicators that matter as if theyre going out of fashi

89、on,even if theres nothing you need to do right now.Stay vigilant,keep everyone informed,and know when to jump into action.This is the time to zero in on what you do best as you create opportunities for growth.14The state of global insurance in 2024The future starts here As trusted advisors to some o

90、f the worlds leading insurance companies,we know whats happening across this industry and how things work on the inside.From visioning and big ideas to design and implementation,weve got your back.For almost a century,weve also advised organizations on how best to adapt,integrate,and migrate to new

91、systemssolving their most complex business challenges and transforming the way they approach the next big problem.Now,were primed to help insurers take on their biggest transformation challenge so far.Antonio SerrapicaPartner,Milan Mukund BhatnagarPartner,Dubai Simon KentPartner,London Robert Bustos

92、-McNeilPartner,Sydney robert.bustos-The authors thank Alessandro Affaticati,Nigel Andrade,Clement Bovet,Daniel Dadoun,Monti Daryani,Piyush Dubey,Ola Engebretsen,Alberic Fischer,Waqas Khan,Pierpaolo Petti,Alexander Tamminga,and Christiaan Teeuwen for their valuable contributions.Authors15The state of

93、 global insurance in 2024For more information,permission to reprint or translate this work,and all other correspondence,please email .A.T.Kearney Korea LLC is a separate and independent legal entity operating under the Kearney name in Korea.A.T.Kearney operates in India as A.T.Kearney Limited(Branch

94、 Office),a branch office of A.T.Kearney Limited,a company organized under the laws of England and Wales.2024,A.T.Kearney,Inc.All rights reserved.Kearney is a leading global management consulting firm.For nearly 100 years,we have been a trusted advisor to C-suites,government bodies,and nonprofit organizations.Our people make us who we are.Driven to be the difference between a big idea and making it happen,we work alongside our clients to regenerate their businesses to create a future that works for