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1、A business of Marsh McLennanPrivate Credits next actAnd why the barbell tolls for fixed income investing October,2024Huw van Steenis2 Oliver WymanKEY DEBATES2Why is asset-based lending in focus?3Will bank-private credit partnerships work?4How to position around the financial system reshaping?1The ne

2、xt wave of bank disintermediation?3 Oliver WymanKEY DEBATES2Why is asset-based lending in focus?3Will bank-private credit partnerships work?4How to position around the financial system reshaping?1The next wave of bank disintermediation?4 Oliver WymanHow many times,how many decades are we going to le

3、arn this lesson of borrowing overnight and lending long?Whether it was the 1970s,the 1980s and 90s.I expect more disintermediationMichael Milken,April 2023“5 Oliver WymanPRIVATE CREDIT HAS BOOMED AND FORECAST TO DOUBLEIN 4-5 YEARSPrivate credit AUM by strategy$TN,comingled funds only26%33%23%2014201

4、520162017201820192020202120222%17%13%18%49%Q3 23Venture Debt2000Special SituationsMezzanineDistressedDirect lending20072%17%0.20.40.50.60.60.10.81.01.21.51.710.7+13%+20%PEREInfra.+14%+7%+17%+21%+14%+20%CAGRs of other Private Markets funds1.1.7TN is only the tip of the iceberg we estimate that at lea

5、st 3TN AUM is deployed in private debt via SMAs and Direct Investments(not in Preqin data)|Source:Preqin,excludes Funds of Funds6 Oliver WymanCommercial paperCorporate lending RMBsHigh yieldCMBSCredit cardsAuto loansSub-prime RMBSSynthetic credit riskPrivate Credit 1.0Mid-marketLeveraged financePriv

6、ate Credit 2.0Specialty financeCRE1974 mid 1980s1980s mid 1990sMid 1990s 2000s2000s2008 20222022 presentUS BANK DISINTERMEDIATION HAS WORKED IN LONG WAVESSource:Private Credits Next Act,April 2024 by Huw van Steenis and colleagues,Oliver Wyman7 Oliver WymanWEVE SEEN 50+YEARS OF US BANK DISINTERMEDIA

7、TION,WITH SOME WAXING AND WANING FURTHER SHIFTS TO COME THOUGH DEPENDENT ON REGS AND CYCLEUS bank share of total outstanding lending volume to households and non-financial businesses%,1962-202319641966196819701972197419761978198019821984198619881990199219941996199820001962200420062008201020122014201

8、6201820202022202430%35%40%45%50%55%60%2002Source:Private Credits Next Act,April 2024 by Huw van Steenis and colleagues,Oliver Wyman.Data from Federal Reserve Board,FRED(Federal Reserve Bank of St.Louis),Oliver Wyman analysis8 Oliver WymanLESSONS FROM PREVIOUS WAVESTypically takes 2-3 years for weake

9、ned banks to recover from large interest rate shocksOutdated financial regulations often exacerbate interest rate shocks(e.g.Regulation Q)Financial product innovation is a key enabler for disintermediation(e.g.money market funds)Regulations aimed at addressing bank vulnerabilities can inadvertently

10、push lending elsewhereFor more see FT op-ed Is the boom in private credit losing steam?Huw van Steenis,Financial Times April 23,2024 9 Oliver WymanPRIVATE CREDITS SHARE OF LEVERAGE LENDING EXCEEDED 80%IN 2023 AS BANKS WERE ON THE BACK FOOT BUT THE GOLDEN MOMENT IS NOW BEHIND USShare of US LBO financ

11、ing%of deals,Q2 2020 Q2 2024Share of US non-LBOs financing%of deals,Q2 2020 Q2 20240%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Broadly syndicated loansPrivate credit20202021202220230%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Broadly syndicated loansPriva

12、te credit2020202120222023Source:PitchBook LCD,Oliver Wyman analysis2024202410 Oliver WymanLEADING BANKS ARE FIGHTING BACK HARDBroadly syndicated loans(BSL)and direct lending takeoutsQ1 2023 Q1 2024,$BN001012511910371Q 20232Q 20233Q 20234Q 20231Q 20242Q 2024Direct lending refinanced by BSLBSL refinan

13、ced by direct lendingSource:PitchBook LCD11 Oliver WymanKEY DEBATES2Why is asset-based lending in focus?3Will bank-private credit partnerships work?4How to position around the financial system reshaping?1The next wave of bank disintermediation?12 Oliver WymanEverything that is on a bank balance shee

14、t is private credit.Marc Rowan,Apollo,March 2024“13 Oliver WymanWE ESTIMATE THE US SPECIALTY FINANCE MARKET IS$5.5 TN,OF WHICH 1/3 SITS ON NON-BANK BALANCE SHEETSTotal size of US specialty finance market,split by ownership2023,USD34%12%54%Non-bank financingPublicly securitizedBank balancesheet5.5 TN

15、1.9 TN200-300 BNSpecialty finance by non-banksPrivate credit specialty financeSource:Private Credits Next Act,April 2024 by Huw van Steenis and colleagues,Oliver Wyman.Oliver Wyman analysis and estimates,aggregated from a range of sources including,but not limited to:Federal Reserve Board(Z1 tables,

16、G19,G20 and H8);Federal Reserve Bank of New York;Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas;Bureau of Transportation Statistics(BTS);Dealogic;2024 Conning,Inc.,Conning Esoteric ABS Strategy Fact Sheet used with permission;F;Structured Finance Association;Boeing(Commercial Aircraft Finance Market Outlook);Secure

17、d Finance Network;Equipment Leasing and Finance Association;Morgan Stanley Research;CACIB Research;company reports and disclosures.14 Oliver WymanOF THE$5.5 TN MARKET,NON-BANKS MOST PREDOMINANT IN FINANCING SPECIALISED HARD ASSETSUS specialty finance market,split by segment2023,USD TN45%non-bank fin

18、anceEstimated proportion of non-bank finance:AircraftBusiness vehiclesSolarTelco and data centersRail and containersFactoringOther equipment and softwareHard assetsSupply-chain financeConsumer automobilesReceivables,inventory,and other ABLCredit cardsCommercial financeConsumer loansConsumer finance0

19、.00.81.33.4Royalties and litigation financeSource:Private Credits Next Act,April 2024 by Huw van Steenis and colleagues,Oliver Wyman.Oliver Wyman analysis and estimates,aggregated from a range of sources including,but not limited to:Federal Reserve Board(Z1 tables,G19,G20 and H8);Federal Reserve Ban

20、k of New York;Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas;Bureau of Transportation Statistics(BTS);Dealogic;2024 Conning,Inc.,Conning Esoteric ABS Strategy Fact Sheet used with permission;F;Structured Finance Association;Boeing(Commercial Aircraft Finance Market Outlook);Secured Finance Network;Equipment Leasing

21、 and Finance Association;Morgan Stanley Research;CACIB Research;company reports and disclosures.ContractualCash flows15 Oliver WymanKEY DEBATES2Why is asset-based lending in focus?3Will bank-private credit partnerships work?4How to position around the financial system reshaping?1The next wave of ban

22、k disintermediation?16 Oliver WymanWhat we are seeing is the re-tranching of the banking system where banks parcel the riskiest slice to private credit,providing less risky lending themselves.Private credit could be the Ozempic to help banks on yet another diet.Huw van Steenis,FT OpEd April 2024“17

23、Oliver WymanDIRECT LENDING HAS BEEN THE PREFERRED FOCUS OF PARTNERSHIPS,HOWEVER THERE IS GROWING INTEREST IN SPECIALTY FINANCEStrategic focus of private credit partnerships1%split strategic focus2Private credit partnership announcements1 Count of partnerships2,split by strategic focus1133634Before 2

24、023H1 2023H2 2023H1 2024H2 20247047Direct lending and leveraged financeSpecialty finance67%24%10%Direct lendingAsset-backed financeLeveraged finance1.As of September 2024;2.Covering largest banks in North America and Europe by$BN assets 2023.Source:Private Credits Next Act,April 2024 by Huw van Stee

25、nis and colleagues,Oliver Wyman.Data sourced from bank financials,industry press,Oliver Wyman analysis.Updated with latest H2 2024 data.At least 14 partnerships in the 12 months to Sept 2024(vs.2 in the prior year)18 Oliver WymanNorth America and European private credit partnerships1Number of partne

26、rships for the largest 25 banks by geography2Number of credit partnerships1Number of partnerships,split by geography29(28%)3(12%)1(4%)14(56%)North America 6(20%)2(8%)1(4%)16(68%)EuropeOrigination partnershipPortfolio saleOrigination partnership&portfolio saleNo partnerships12(67%)5(33%)North America

27、9(70%)3(30%)Europe1712Origination partnershipPortfolio sale17 OF THE LARGEST BANKS IN NORTH AMERICA&EUROPE HAVE AGREED ORIGINATION PARTNERSHIPS1.As of September 2024;2.Largest banks in North America and Europe by$BN assets 2023.Source:Private Credits Next Act,April 2024 by Huw van Steenis and collea

28、gues,Oliver Wyman.Data sourced from bank financials,industry press,Oliver Wyman analysis.Updated with latest H2 2024 data.19 Oliver WymanKEY DEBATES2Why is asset-based lending in focus?3Will bank-private credit partnerships work?4How to position around the financial system reshaping?1The next wave o

29、f bank disintermediation?20 Oliver WymanWe used to talk about equity having more of a barbell effect.I think were starting to see that here in the bond market.Larry Fink,BlackRock Chairman&CEO,Q2 Earnings Call July 2024“21 Oliver WymanSource:The Asset Management Barbell,Huw van Steenis,Bruce Hamilto

30、n,2004;Morgan Stanley Research.THE BARBELL TOLLS FOR FIXED INCOME -AS IT HAS FOR EQUITIES OVER THE LAST 20 YEARS22 Oliver WymanA YEAR OF RECORDS IN FIXED INCOME INVESTING Investors have poured$187bn into US fixed income ETFs this year to August according to Morningstar,50%higher than this time last

31、yearAres raised the largest private credit fund in history at$34bn14 major banks have formed partnerships with private credit firms to distribute their loans in the last year vs 2 the year before23 Oliver WymanAT ONE END:THE BARBELL EFFECT ACCELERATED IN FIXED INCOME FUNDS FROM THE FIRST FED RATE RI

32、SE IN 2021Cumulative fixed income flows into US ETFs and mutual funds2020 H1 2024,USD BN01,0005001,5002,000YE 2017YE 2018YE 2019YE 2020YE 2021YE 2022YE 2023Aug-24ETFs and passive MFsActive MFsAssets in US bond ETFs as a share of total assets in US FI ETFs and MFs2017 July 2024,%14%15%16%17%18%19%20%

33、21%22%23%24%25%26%27%28%0%1%29%15%YE 201716%20%YE 202021%YE 202125%YE 202227%YE 202328%Aug-2418%YE 2019YE 2018Bond ETF as share accelerated on Fed first hike as investment paradigm shiftedBond mutual funds saw redemptions on Fed first hike as investment paradigm shiftedSource:Morningstar|Note:Exclud

34、es fund of funds and feeders24 Oliver WymanACTIVELY MANAGED BOND ETFS HAVE CAPTURED A GROWING SHARE OF ETF BOND FLOWS LIKELY TO MORE THAN DOUBLE IN 2024 ON 2023US active bond ETF net flows20117 July 2024,$BNYE 2017YE 2018YE 2019YE 2020YE 2021YE 2022YE 2023Jul-2448.89.920.721.125.227.59.229.28%23%15%

35、13%15%6%15%33%XX%Share of total US ETF bond flowsSource:Morningstar|Note:Excludes funds of funds and feeders25 Oliver WymanIN PART AS ACTIVE FIXED INCOME ETFS AT LEAST A THIRD CHEAPER THAN MUTUAL FUNDSMedian net expense ratio Bond ETFs vs.mutual fundsMedian net expense ratio Active fixed income ETFs

36、 vs.active mutual funds0.29%0.63%Bond ETFsBond Mutual Funds0.40%0.65%Active FI ETFsActive FI MFsSource:SSGA26 Oliver WymanPrivate credit fundraising2013 H1 2024,USD BNNet credit strategy flows for selected asset managers1H1 2019 LTM H1 2024 LTM2,$BN747110812513013615119323422120570702013201420152016

37、201720182019202020212022202320241400%195H119 LTM146712104H120 LTM381350108H121 LTM6758342915H122 LTM41783893H123 LTM5468596634H124 LTM223812013522819031995131526213811+27%BlackstoneApolloAresBrookfieldCarlyleKKR1.Blackstone,Apollo,Ares,Brookfield,Carlyle,KKR;2.Last twelve months|Note 1:Does not incl

38、ude 2Q19 LTM for Brookfield,credit flows not available prior to acquisition of Oaktree;Note 2:In-year flows exclude acquisitions;Note 3:Estimates for KKR from 2019-2022,extrapolated assuming annual growth rates in line with peers|Source:Preqin,company annual reports and presentationsFUNDRAISING IN P

39、RIVATE CREDITHAS SLOWED DUE TO PRIVATE MARKET INDIGESTION-BUT THE LARGEST PLAYERS CONTINUE TO GROW FASTER SINCE FIRST FED RATE HIKE27 Oliver WymanFIXED INCOME NNM FOR LARGEST ALTERNATIVE PLAYERS IS ROBUST AND FAR HIGHER THAN TRADITIONAL LISTED PLAYERSCredit strategy NNM as a share of total credit AU

40、M for selected asset managers1,H1 2019 LTM H1 2024 LTM2,%NNM growth in credit strategies for selected managers12 months to H1 2024,%1.Blackstone,Apollo,Ares,Brookfield,Carlyle,KKR;2.Last twelve months|Note 1:Does not include 2Q19 LTM for Brookfield,credit flows not available prior to acquisition of

41、Oaktree;Note 2:In-year flows exclude acquisitions;Note 3:Estimates KKR for 2019-2022,extrapolated assuming annual growth rates in line with peers|Source:Company annual reports and presentations20%21%16%23%14%21%H119H120H121H122H123H12440%23%22%19%17%15%1%BrookfieldCarlyleAresBlackstoneKKRApolloGloba

42、l long-only AMs28 Oliver WymanKKR and Capital InternationalBlackrock and Partners Group Apollo and State Street Global Investors THERE IS A CAMBRIAN EXPLOSION OF INNOVATION IN HYBRID FUNDS SIGNIFICANT BETS ON THE MAINSTREAMING OF FIXED INCOMEto create the first public-private private credit fundto c

43、reate first blended US private markets fund to create first hybrid ETF fund(with up to 15%private credit)29 Oliver WymanRevenue growth projections by product$BN,2003-202762%39%33%32%26%11%10%10%10%26%34%35%41%15%15%15%15%5%3%2%20035%3%20215%3%20225%3%2023E5%3%2027E base case130430440460530-590Hedge

44、fundPrivate marketsSolutionsCore ActivePassiveMoney market28%across HFs and PMs*FURTHERPOLARISATION OFRISK AND FEE BUDGETS TOWARDS PRIVATE MARKETS LIKELYSource:Oliver Wyman and Morgan Stanley Research|*No split between Hedge Funds and Private markets in 2003 sample30 Oliver Wyman1.Multiple calculate

45、d with equal weight excluding outliers/zeros;2.Listed Alternative Asset Managers includes Brookfield Asset Management,Bridge Investment Group,TPG,Apollo Global Management,Ares Management Corporation,Blackstone,KKR&Co.,Blue Owl Capital,The Carlyle Group,Hamilton Lane;3.Listed Traditional Asset Manage

46、rs includes T.Rowe Price Group,Janus Henderson,Invesco,Affiliated Managers Group,Franklin Resources,Federated Hermes,Cohen&Steers,Artisan Partners Asset Management,SEI Investments Company|Source:Capital IQ,Data to September 30,2024Forward Price/Earnings NTM of listed US independent investment manage

47、rs1Jan 2010 Sep 2024,monthly20102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420250246810121416182022242628ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENT FIRMS NOW TRADE TWICE THE P/E OF TRADITIONAL ASSET MANAGERS,REFLECTING GROWTH EXPECTATIONSTraditional firms derated from 16x to 13x forward P/E from 2010-24,whi

48、lst alternative firms rerated from 12x to 24x S&P 500BlackRockListed Alternative Asset Managers2Listed Traditional Asset Managers331 Oliver WymanALTS FIRMS NOW REPRESENT 2/3 OF MARKET CAP OF US LISTED INVESTMENT FIRMSThe market cap of large listed asset managers have lost share from 54%at the start

49、of 2010 to 12%in September 2024,while alternative asset managers have increased share from 4%to 64%in the same periodShare of market capitalisation of listed US independent investment managers1%,Jan 2010 Sep 20240%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%Listed Traditional Asset Managers2BlackRockListed Alter

50、native Asset Managers32010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320241.Share among selected peerset;2.Listed Traditional Asset Managers includes T.Rowe Price Group,Janus Henderson,Invesco,Affiliated Managers Group,Franklin Resources,Federated Hermes,Cohen&Steers,Artisan Partners Asset M

51、anagement,SEI Investments Company;3.Listed Alternative Asset Managers includes Brookfield Asset Management,Bridge Investment Group,TPG,Apollo Global Management,Ares Management Corporation,Blackstone,KKR&Co.,Blue Owl Capital,The Carlyle Group,Hamilton LaneSource:Capital IQ,Data to September 30,202432

52、 Oliver WymanBULL AND BEAR POINTS IN OUR CONVERSATIONSA case for optimismBut several headwindsSea change in allocations to credit after 15 years of zero or negative ratesAs cost of capital falls,relevant for even more investment grade assets on banks balance sheetsThird,banks around the world are un

53、der pressure to diet into a range of new regulations.Innovation on hybrid funds and new clients e.g.wealthy Private credit boomed with ultra low rates and banks on back foot.Asset raising in private credit slowed given private market indigestionGreater regulatory scrutiny on private credit could imp

54、ede growth Worst case of Basel endgame averted and now more moderate capital increase expected33 Oliver WymanANY QUESTIONS?34 Oliver WymanFURTHER READINGPrivate credit boom will trigger a new squeezeHistory can instruct us on the fallout from SVBs collapseInto the Great UnknownQUALIFICATIONS,ASSUMPT

55、IONS,AND LIMITING CONDITIONSThis report is for the exclusive use of the Oliver Wyman client named herein.This report is not intended for general circulation or publication,nor is it to be reproduced,quoted,or distributed for any purpose without the prior written permission of Oliver Wyman.There are

56、no third-party beneficiaries with respect to this report,and Oliver Wyman does not accept any liability to any third party.Information furnished by others,upon which all or portions of this report are based,is believed to be reliable but has not been independently verified,unless otherwise expressly

57、 indicated.Public information and industry and statistical data are from sources we deem to be reliable;however,we make no representation as to the accuracy or completeness of such information.The findings contained in this report may contain predictions based on current data and historical trends.A

58、ny such predictions are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties.Oliver Wyman accepts no responsibility for actual results or future events.The opinions expressed in this report are valid only for the purpose stated herein and as of the date of this report.No obligation is assumed to revise this

59、report to reflect changes,events,or conditions,which occur subsequent to the date hereof.All decisions in connection with the implementation or use of advice or recommendations contained in this report are the sole responsibility of the client.This report does not represent investment advice nor does it provide an opinion regarding the fairness of any transaction to any and all parties.In addition,this report does not represent legal,medical,accounting,safety,or other specialized advice.For any such advice,Oliver Wyman recommends seeking and obtaining advice from a qualified professional.