《國際能源署（IEA）：2024年全球氫能回顧報告（英文版）（295頁）.pdf》由會員分享，可在線閱讀，更多相關《國際能源署（IEA）：2024年全球氫能回顧報告（英文版）（295頁）.pdf（295頁珍藏版）》請在三個皮匠報告上搜索。

1、Global Hydrogen Review 2024The IEA examines the full spectrum of energy issues including oil,gas and coal supply and demand,renewable energy technologies,electricity markets,energy efficiency,access to energy,demand side management and much more.Through its work,the IEA advocates policies that will

2、enhance the reliability,affordability and sustainability of energy in its 31 member countries,13 association countries and beyond.This publication and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory,to the delimitation of international frontiers and b

3、oundaries and to the name of any territory,city or area.Source:IEA.International Energy Agency Website:www.iea.orgIEA member countries:AustraliaAustriaBelgiumCanadaCzech RepublicDenmarkEstoniaFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyJapanKoreaLithuaniaLuxembourgMexicoNetherlandsNew ZealandNorway

4、PolandPortugalSlovak RepublicSpainSwedenSwitzerlandRepublic of TrkiyeUnited KingdomUnited StatesThe European Commission also participates in the work of the IEAIEA association countries:Argentina BrazilChinaEgyptIndiaIndonesiaKenyaMoroccoSenegalSingapore South Africa Thailand UkraineINTERNATIONAL EN

5、ERGYAGENCYRevised version,October2024Information notice found at:www.iea.org/correctionsGlobal Hydrogen Review 2024 Abstract PAGE|3 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Abstract The Global Hydrogen Review is an annual publication by the International Energy Agency that tracks hydrogen production and demand worldwide,as w

6、ell as progress in critical areas such as infrastructure development,trade,policy,regulation,investments and innovation.The report is an output of the Clean Energy Ministerial Hydrogen Initiative and is intended to inform energy sector stakeholders on the status and future prospects of hydrogen.Focu

7、sing on hydrogens potential role in meeting international energy and climate goals,the Review aims to help decision makers fine-tune strategies to attract investment and facilitate deployment of hydrogen technologies at the same time as creating demand for hydrogen and hydrogen-based fuels.It compar

8、es real-world developments with the stated ambitions of government and industry.This years report has a special focus on Latin America and includes analysis on recent developments of low-emissions hydrogen projects in the region and how to unlock demand and move towards project implementation.In add

9、ition,the report assesses in detail the greenhouse gas emissions associated with different hydrogen supply chains.Global Hydrogen Review 2024 Acknowledgements PAGE|4 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Acknowledgements,contributors and credits The Global Hydrogen Review was prepared by the Energy Technology Policy(ETP)D

10、ivision of the Directorate of Sustainability,Technology and Outlooks(STO)of the International Energy Agency(IEA).The study was designed and directed by Timur Gl,Chief Energy Technology Officer.Uwe Remme(Head of the Hydrogen and Alternative Fuels Unit)and Jose Miguel Bermudez Menendez co-ordinated th

11、e analysis and production of the report.The principal IEA authors and contributors were(in alphabetical order):Giovanni Andrean(CCUS and geospatial analysis),Simon Bennett(lead on investment),Herib Blanco(lead on greenhouse gases and policies;Latin America),Sara Budinis(lead on CCUS),Jonghoon Chae(e

12、lectricity generation),Elizabeth Connelly(lead on transport),Chiara Delmastro(lead on buildings),Stavroula Evangelopoulou(production and data management),Mathilde Fajardy(CCUS),Alexandre Gouy(industry),Rafael Martinez Gordon(buildings),Shane McDonagh(transport),Megumi Kotani(policies),Francesco Pava

13、n(lead on production and trade),Amalia Pizarro(lead on Latin America and infrastructure;innovation),Richard Simon(lead on industry)and Deniz Ugur(investment).The development of this report benefitted from contributions provided by the following IEA colleagues:Yasmina Abdelilah,Ana Alcalde Bscones,Le

14、onardo Colina,Ilkka Hannula,Martin Kueppers,Gabriel Leiva,Quentin Minier,Pedro Nino de Carvalho,Jennifer Ortiz and Mirko Uliano.Valuable comments and feedback were provided by senior management and other colleagues within the IEA,in particular Laura Cozzi,Keisuke Sadamori,Tim Gould,Paolo Frankl,Denn

15、is Hesseling,Alessandro Blasi,and Araceli Fernandez Pales.With great appreciation,we thank Joerg Husar and Alejandra Bernal who provided essential support in the engagement with Latin America stakeholders.Lizzie Sayer edited the manuscript while Anna Kalista and Per-Anders Widell provided essential

16、support throughout the process.Special thanks go to Prof.Detlef Stolten and his team at Jlich Systems Analysis,Forschungszentrum Jlich(Heidi Heinrichs,Daniel Rosales,Christoph Winkler,Bernhard Wortmann)for their model analysis on hydrogen production costs and analytical input on water stress levels.

17、Global Hydrogen Review 2024 Acknowledgements PAGE|5 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Thanks also to the IEA Communications and Digital Office for their help in producing the report,particularly to Jethro Mullen,Curtis Brainard,Poeli Bojorquez,Jon Custer,Astrid Dumond,Merve Erdil,Liv Gaunt,Grace Gordon,Clara Vallois a

18、nd Wonjik Yang.The work benefitted from the financial support provided by the Governments of Canada and Japan.The following governments have also contributed to the report through their voluntary contribution to the CEM Hydrogen Initiative:Australia,Austria,Canada,Finland,Germany,the European Commis

19、sion,the Netherlands,Norway,the United Kingdom and the United States.Special thanks go to the following organisations and initiatives for their valuable contributions:Advanced Fuel Cells TCP,Hydrogen Council,Hydrogen TCP,and International Partnership for Hydrogen and Fuel Cells in the Economy(IPHE).

20、Peer reviewers provided essential feedback to improve the quality of the report.They include:Nawal Yousif Alhanaee,Maryam Mohammed Alshamsi and Abdalla Talal Alhammadi(Ministry of Energy and Infrastructure,United Arab Emirates);AbdulAziz Aliyu(GHG TCP);Laurent Antoni and No van Hulst(IPHE);Florian A

21、usfelder,Thomas Hild and Isabel Kundler(Dechema);Esteban Barrantes Vsquez(Ministry of Environment and Energy,Costa Rica);Fabian Barrera,Matthias Delteil,Matthias Deutsch and Leandro Janke(Agora Energiewende);Hamed Bashiri,Rob Black,Caroline Czach,Kathryn Gagnon,Amandeep Garcha,Ellen Handyside,Amir H

22、anifi,Oshada Mendis,Cassie Shang,Margaret Skwara,Phil Tomlinson and Nichole Warkotsch(Natural Resources Canada);Lionel Boillot(EU Clean Hydrogen Partnership);David Bolsman and Alfred Mosselaar(RVO,Netherlands);Paola Brunetto(Enel);Fitzgerald Cantero(OLADE);Florimar Ceballos and Roco Valero(Hydrogen

23、TCP);Ping Chen(Dalian Institute of Chemical Physics);Tudor Constantinescu(DG ENER,European Commission);Anne-Sophie Corbeau(Center on Global Energy Policy,Columbia University);Linda Dempsey(CF Industries);Luis Diazgranados and Wouter Vanhoudt(Hinicio);Robert Dickinson,Stuart Walsh and Changlong Wang(

24、Monash University);Joe Doleschal-Ridnell,Doris Fuji and Shirley Oliveira(BP);Robert Fischer(SWEA);Tudor Florea(Ministry of Ecological Transition,France);Alexandru Floristean(Hy24);Daniel Fraile(Hydrogen Europe);Matias Garca(Ministry of Energy,Chile);Eric C.Gaucher(Lavoisier H2 Ceoconsult);Dolf Giele

25、n,Carolina Lopez Rocha and Simona Sulikova(World Bank);Celine Le Goazigo(WBCSD);Jeffrey Goldmeer and Kanika Tayal(GE Vernova);Maria Jose Gonzalez and Martn Scarone(Ministry of Industry,Energy and Mines,Uruguay);Marine Gorner,Julian Hoelzen and Frdrique Rigal(Airbus);Patrick Graichen(Independent);Emi

26、le Herben(Yara);Stephan Herbst and Koichi Numata(Toyota);Yoshinari Hiki(ENEOS);Kenji Ishizawa(IHI Corporation);Steve James(Ministry of Business,Innovation&Employment,New Zealand);Nicolas Jensen(TES);Connor Kerr and TJ Kirk(Rocky Mountain Institute);Ilhan Kim(Ministry of Trade,Global Hydrogen Review

27、2024 Acknowledgements PAGE|6 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Industry and Energy,Korea);Yoshikazu Kobayashi(The Institute of Energy Economics,Japan);Leif Christian Krger(Thyssenkrupp Nucera);Thomas Kwan(Schneider Electric);Pierre Labou(France Hydrogne);Martin Lambert(Oxford Institute for Energy Studies);Wilco van de

28、r Lans(Port of Rotterdam Authority);Francisco Laveron(Iberdrola);Franz Lehner and Jan Stelter(NOW GmbH);Michael Leibrandt(Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action,Germany);Paul Lucchese and Julie Mougin(CEA);Alberto Di Lullo,Andrea Di Stefano and Andrea Pisano(Eni);Constanza Meneses(

29、H2LAC);Matteo Micheli and Andrea Triki(German Energy Agency);Susana Moreira(H2Global-HINT.Co);Patricia Naccache(Ministry of Mines and Energy of Brazil);Masashi Nagai(Chiyoda);Motohiko Nishimura(Kawasaki Heavy Industries);Mara Teresa Nonay Domingo(Enags);Ariel Prez(Hychico);Cdric Philibert(Independen

30、t);Andrew Purvis(World Steel Association);Carla Robledo and Douwe Roest(Ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate,the Netherlands);Agustn Rodrguez Riccio(Topsoe);Xavier Rousseau(Snam);Sunita Satyapal,Jacob Englander,Marc Melaina and Neha Rustagi(Department of Energy,United States);Sophie Sauerteig(De

31、partment for Energy Security and Net Zero,United Kingdom);Robert Schouwenaar(Shell);Guillaume De Smedt(Air Liquide);Michael Smith(Department of Climate Change,Energy,the Environment and Water,Australia);Matthijs Soede(DG R&I,European Commission);Urszula Szalkowska(Eco Engineers);Kenji Takahashi(JERA

32、);Andrei Tchouvelev(ISO);Denis Thomas(Accelera by Cummins);Tatiana Vilarinho Franco(Fortescue Future Industries);Marcel Weeda(TNO);Joe Williams(Green Hydrogen Organisation);Juan Camilo Zapata(Ministry of Mines and Energy,Colombia).Global Hydrogen Review 2024 Table of contents PAGE|7 I EA.CC BY 4.0.T

33、able of contents Executive summary.9 Recommendations.14 Global Hydrogen Review Summary Progress.16 Chapter 1.Introduction.17 Overview.17 The CEM Hydrogen Initiative.18 Chapter 2.Hydrogen demand.20 Highlights.20 Overview and outlook.21 Refining.28 Industry.32 Transport.37 Buildings.53 Electricity gen

34、eration.54 Chapter 3.Hydrogen production.59 Highlights.59 Overview and outlook.60 Electrolysis.66 Fossil fuels with CCUS.78 Comparison of different production routes.81 Emerging production routes.94 Hydrogen-based fuels and feedstock.99 Chapter 4.Trade and infrastructure.104 Highlights.104 Overview.

35、105 Status and outlook of hydrogen trade.105 Status and outlook of hydrogen infrastructure.113 Chapter 5.Investment,finance and innovation.135 Highlights.135 Investment in the hydrogen sector.136 Innovation in hydrogen technologies.150 Chapter 6.Policies.163 Highlights.163 Overview.164 Strategies an

36、d targets.166 Global Hydrogen Review 2024 Table of contents PAGE|8 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Demand creation.172 Mitigation of investment risks.178 Promotion of RD&D,innovation and knowledge-sharing.190 Certification,standards,regulations.194 Chapter 7.GHG emissions of hydrogen and its derivatives.203 Highligh

37、ts.203 Overview.204 System boundaries and scope of emissions.206 Emissions intensities of hydrogen production routes.208 Emissions intensities of ammonia production routes.215 Emissions intensities of(re)conversion and shipping of hydrogen carriers.216 Emissions intensity of carbon-containing hydrog

38、en-based fuels.223 Effect of temporal correlation on GHG emissions.230 Chapter 8.Latin America in focus.234 Highlights.234 Unlocking the potential of low-emissions hydrogen in Latin America and the Caribbean.235 Overview.237 Low-emissions hydrogen production.242 Low-emissions hydrogen demand.247 Mov

39、ing towards implementation.269 Annex.287 Explanatory notes.287 Abbreviations and acronyms.289 Global Hydrogen Review 2024 Executive summary PAGE|9 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Executive summary More projects and more final investment decisions,but setbacks persist Global hydrogen demand reached 97 Mt in 2023,an i

40、ncrease of 2.5%compared to 2022.Demand remains concentrated in refining and the chemical sector,and is principally covered by hydrogen produced from unabated fossil fuels.As in previous years,low-emissions hydrogen played only a marginal role,with production of less than 1 Mt in 2023.However,low-emi

41、ssions hydrogen production could reach 49 Mtpa by 2030 based on announced projects,almost 30%more than when the Global Hydrogen Review 2023 was released.This strong growth has been mostly driven by electrolysis projects,with announced electrolysis capacity amounting to almost 520 GW.The number of pr

42、ojects that have reached a final investment decision(FID)is also growing:Announced production that has taken FID doubled compared with last year to reach 3.4 Mtpa,representing a fivefold increase on todays production by 2030.This is split roughly evenly between electrolysis(1.9 Mtpa)and fossil fuels

43、 with carbon capture,utilisation and storage(CCUS)(1.5 Mtpa).Hydrogen production from fossil fuels with CCUS has gained ground over the past year although the total potential production from announced projects grew only marginally compared with last year,there were several FIDs for previously announ

44、ced large-scale projects,all of which are located in North America and Europe.As a result,the potential production in 2030 from projects using fossil fuels with CCUS that have taken FID more than doubled in the last year,from 0.6 Mtpa in September 2023 to 1.5 Mtpa today.Overall,this is noteworthy pr

45、ogress for a nascent sector,but most of the potential production is still in planning or at even earlier stages.For the full project pipeline to materialise,the sector would need to grow at an unprecedented compound annual growth rate of over 90%from 2024 until 2030,well above the growth experienced

46、 by solar PV during its fastest expansion phases.Several projects have faced delays and cancellations,which are putting at risk a significant part of the project pipeline.The main reasons include unclear demand signals,financing hurdles,delays to incentives,regulatory uncertainties,licensing and per

47、mitting issues and operational challenges.Global Hydrogen Review 2024 Executive summary PAGE|10 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Map of announced low-emissions hydrogen production projects,2024 Source:IEA Hydrogen Projects database(October 2024).China and electrolysers the sequel to solar PV and batteries?Announced e

48、lectrolyser capacity that has reached FID now stands at 20 GW globally,of which 6.5 GW reached FID over the last 12 months alone.China is strengthening its leadership,accounting for more than 40%of global FIDs in capacity terms over the same period.Chinas front-running position is backed by its stre

49、ngth in the mass manufacturing of clean energy technologies:it is home to 60%of global electrolyser manufacturing capacity.Chinas continued expansion of manufacturing capacity is expected to drive down electrolyser costs,as has occurred with solar PV and battery manufacturing in the past.Moreover,se

50、veral large Chinese manufacturers of solar panels have entered the business of manufacturing electrolysers,and today they account for around one-third of Chinas electrolyser manufacturing capacity.However,other regions are also stepping up efforts:in Europe,FIDs for electrolysis projects quadrupled

51、over the last year to reach more than 2 GW,while India has emerged as one of the key players thanks to a single FID for 1.3 GW.Global Hydrogen Review 2024 Executive summary PAGE|11 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Technology innovation is making headway,with signs pointing to accelerated progress in the near term Gov

52、ernment investment in hydrogen technology RD&D has been growing since 2016,and this effort is starting to bear fruit.To date,progress has occurred mostly on the supply side,and numerous technologies are either already commercially available or close to this point.Promising results are also being see

53、n for end-use technologies,with several applications in industry and electricity generation reaching demonstration stage,as well as significant progress in transport applications,particularly in the shipping sector.In addition,the number of patent applications leapt up 47%in 2022,with most of the gr

54、owth coming from technologies that are primarily motivated by climate change concerns.Increased activity around patenting suggests that additional public funding for R&D and growing confidence in future market opportunities,backed by supportive policies,are stimulating more new ideas and product des

55、igns with commercial potential.Low-emissions hydrogen will remain expensive in the short term,but costs are expected to fall significantly Low-emissions hydrogen is an emerging sector and,as such,there is uncertainty about costs.Todays electrolyser costs have been revised upwards for this report,bas

56、ed on newly available data from more advanced projects.The future cost evolution will depend on numerous factors,such as technology development,and particularly on the level and pace of deployment.With the deployment seen in the IEAs Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario(NZE Scenario),the cost of low-

57、emissions hydrogen production from renewable electricity falls to USD 2-9/kg H2 by 2030 half of todays value with the cost gap with unabated fossil-based production shrinking from USD 1.5-8/kg H2 today to USD 1-3/kg H2 by 2030.Deployment levels in the Stated Policies Scenario(which considers existin

58、g policies only)mean that the cost range would fall only around 30%.As natural gas prices fall in many regions,low-emissions hydrogen production from natural gas with CCUS is also set to experience cost reductions.Cost reductions will benefit all projects,but the impact on the competitiveness of ind

59、ividual projects will vary.For example,full development of the entire electrolyser project pipeline of almost 520 GW would achieve similar global cost reductions as in the NZE Scenario.In China,global deployment at such a level would mean that the vast majority of the production from its current ele

60、ctrolyser project pipeline(1 Mtpa)would be cheaper than hydrogen produced from unabated coal.Globally,by 2030,more than 5 Mtpa could be produced at a cost competitive with production from unabated fossil fuels,and up to 12 Mtpa with a cost premium of USD 1.5/kg H2.Global Hydrogen Review 2024 Executi

61、ve summary PAGE|12 I EA.CC BY 4.0.This cost gap will remain an important challenge in the short term for project developers,but for final products for which hydrogen is an intermediate feedstock,the impact is likely to be manageable in many cases.The cost premium of low-emissions hydrogen production

62、 decreases along the value chain,meaning that consumers often see only a modest price increase in final products.For example,using steel produced with renewable hydrogen today in the production of electric vehicles(EVs)would increase the total price of an EV by around 1%.Progress is being made in cr

63、eating demand for low-emissions hydrogen,but this still needs to scale up Efforts to stimulate demand for low-emissions hydrogen(and hydrogen-based fuels)are now gaining traction as governments begin implementing key policies(such as Carbon Contracts for Difference in Germany and the EU mandates in

64、aviation and shipping).These measures have also triggered action on the industry side,with a growing number of offtake agreements signed and the launch of tenders to purchase low-emissions hydrogen.However,the overall scale of these efforts remains inadequate for hydrogen to contribute to meeting cl

65、imate goals.Policies and targets for hydrogen demand set by governments add up to around 11 Mt in 2030,nearly 3 Mt lower than last year due to the downward revisions of some targets for hydrogen use in industry,transport and power generation.Yet the amount of low-emissions hydrogen production that h

66、as taken FID(3.4 Mtpa)or is already operational(0.7 Mtpa),at 4 Mtpa,is well below that level.The gap constitutes a call for action to industry and governments to facilitate offtake agreements that can help unlock investment on the supply side.At the same time,government policies and targets for dema

67、nd are well behind the production targets by governments(which add up to 43 Mtpa in 2030)and are even lower than the potential supply that could be achieved from announced projects(49 Mtpa).Policy measures are still insufficient to create the level of demand needed to scale up production to meet gov

68、ernment expectations.In addition,some more ambitious actions(like the EU targets in industry applications or the refining quotas in India)have not yet been translated into national legislation.Moreover,from the around USD 100 billion of policy support for low-emissions hydrogen adoption announced by

69、 governments over the past year,support on the supply side is 50%larger than on the demand side.Stronger government action will be needed to stimulate demand for low-emissions hydrogen as an essential requirement to underpin investments on the supply side.Industrial hubs,where low-emissions hydrogen

70、 could replace the existing large demand for hydrogen met today by unabated fossil fuels,remain an important untapped opportunity for governments to stimulate demand.Global Hydrogen Review 2024 Executive summary PAGE|13 I EA.CC BY 4.0.The next steps for certification and mutual recognition Governmen

71、ts are accelerating the development of regulations on the environmental attributes of low-emissions hydrogen,particularly regarding greenhouse gas(GHG)emissions.Clear and predictable regulations can strengthen certainty for long-term investments.Yet these frameworks,and the associated certification

72、schemes,remain unaligned across different regions,creating potential for market fragmentation.In response,at COP 28,37 governments committed to mutual recognition of national certification schemes,while Latin America launched“CertHiLAC”,a regional certification framework.In addition,the Internationa

73、l Organization for Standardization(ISO)has released a methodology for determining GHG emissions associated with hydrogen production,transport and conversion/reconversion.This will be the basis for a full standard expected by 2025 or 2026,which could serve as a common methodology to enable the mutual

74、 recognition of certificates.However,some questions related to the assessment of GHG emissions in hydrogen supply chains remain unresolved,such as how to account for emissions from the construction and manufacturing of production assets.In the case of fossil-based production,there is a need for bett

75、er data on upstream and midstream emissions of fossil fuel supply available in national inventories in order to ensure robust assessment of the GHG emissions associated with these production routes.Hydrogen can be an opportunity for Latin America in the new energy economy,but is facing challenges Th

76、is years report includes a special focus on Latin America and the Caribbean,following the launch of the IEAs Latin America Energy Outlook in 2023.Latin America is well-positioned to emerge as a major producer of low-emissions hydrogen,capitalising on its abundant natural and renewable energy resourc

77、es and largely decarbonised electricity mix.Based on announced projects,by 2030,Latin America could produce more than 7 Mtpa of hydrogen with a carbon intensity below 3 kg CO2-eq/kg H2(3-4 times lower than using unabated natural gas),in line with the requirements of several existing regulations arou

78、nd the world(e.g.the EU Taxonomy,Japans Hydrogen Society Promotion Act and the US Clean Hydrogen Production Standard).However,achieving this potential in full would require a significant increase in electricity generation capacity equivalent to 20%of the regions current power output and substantial

79、investments in enabling infrastructure,such as transmission lines.Many Latin American countries already have hydrogen strategies with a strong focus on export opportunities.However,these plans may need to be updated in light of uncertainty about the size of the global hydrogen market.At the global l

80、evel,there has been no growth in announced projects linked to trade of hydrogen and hydrogen-based fuels in the past year,suggesting that project developers Global Hydrogen Review 2024 Executive summary PAGE|14 I EA.CC BY 4.0.have instead focused on domestic opportunities.In the case of Latin Americ

81、a,these opportunities are mostly in refining and ammonia production,which offer immediate large-scale applications.In the case of ammonia,developing domestic production capacities would help to reduce import dependency for fertilisers in a region where agriculture makes a significant contribution to

82、 national gross domestic product.As the market develops,new applications in steel,shipping and aviation will emerge,together with the establishment of hydrogen hubs.These hubs can open an opportunity to scale up hydrogen use and production for domestic needs,while also providing the opportunity to e

83、xport hydrogen-based fuels,as well as materials produced with low-emissions hydrogen,such as hot briquetted iron,allowing countries that are today large exporters of iron ore,like Brazil,to develop new industrial capacities and scale up in the value chain.A phased approach to supply in the region,st

84、arting with smaller-scale projects,will help mitigate risks,reduce capital investment,and provide valuable experience for scaling up in the future.Infrastructure planning and development,especially in long-lead projects like power transmission,should begin immediately to support future hydrogen prod

85、uction.Recommendations Accelerate demand creation for low-emissions hydrogen by leveraging industrial hubs and public procurement Governments should take bolder action to stimulate demand for low-emissions hydrogen.The implementation of policies such as quotas,mandates and carbon contracts for diffe

86、rence has already started,but remains limited in geographical coverage and scale.Governments can capitalise on the opportunity offered by existing hydrogen users and high-value sectors such as steel,shipping and aviation,which are often co-located in industrial hubs.Pooling demand in these hubs can

87、create scale and reduce offtake risks for producers.Additionally,making use of public procurement for final products that consume low-emissions hydrogen in their production,and encouraging the development of markets where consumers are willing to pay small premiums for low-emissions hydrogen-based p

88、roducts,can help drive early adoption.Support project developers to scale up low-emissions hydrogen production and drive cost reductions Governments should provide targeted support to project developers in the scale-up phase to bridge the cost gap between low-emissions hydrogen and unabated fossil-b

89、ased hydrogen.Timely support is critical to unlock investment decisions,as experienced in Europe with a wave of FIDs after the confirmation of funding for Global Hydrogen Review 2024 Executive summary PAGE|15 I EA.CC BY 4.0.several large projects.Governments should also provide long-term visibility

90、over the level and form of support so developers have clarity over future business cases and can attract investors.While initial projects may require substantial financial backing,support levels will decrease as the sector matures and costs decline.In addition to grants and subsidies,governments can

91、 explore other policy options such as loan guarantees,export credit facilities,and public equity investments which can help to reduce investment risk and lower the cost of capital,which is crucial for these capital-intensive projects.Strengthen regulation and certification of environmental attribute

92、s for low-emissions hydrogen The release of the ISO methodology provides a standardised approach to assessing GHG emissions.It is now time for governments to implement clear regulations that set thresholds for acceptable emissions levels in hydrogen production.Ensuring regulatory consistency with th

93、e ISO methodology and forthcoming standards can facilitate global interoperability.However,in addition,governments should intensify efforts to assess and verify upstream emissions from fossil fuel supply,ensuring transparency by making this data accessible to market participants and the public.Ident

94、ify opportunities to start developing hydrogen infrastructure Governments should strengthen efforts to accelerate the development of hydrogen infrastructure to avoid further delays that risk slowing the scale-up of low-emissions hydrogen production and demand.Without timely infrastructure deployment

95、,the link between supply and demand cannot be established,hindering market growth and creating uncertainty for both producers and consumers.Immediate action can include early planning,a focus on repurposing existing natural gas pipelines and storage facilities to minimise cost,streamlining regulator

96、y frameworks to speed up permitting,and fostering cross-border co-operation on hydrogen networks.Public-private partnerships can also be leveraged to de-risk investments,ensuring that infrastructure keeps pace with hydrogen market development.Support emerging markets and developing economies(EMDEs)i

97、n expanding low-emissions hydrogen production and use EMDEs,particularly in regions such as Africa and Latin America,hold significant potential for low-cost,low-emissions hydrogen production.To unlock this potential,governments of advanced economies and multilateral development banks should provide

98、targeted support,including grants and concessional financing,to address key challenges such as access to financing,which is a major barrier for project developers in EMDEs.Developing these projects can help to cover domestic needs,reduce import dependencies and potentially enable the export of hydro

99、gen or hydrogen-based products like hot briquetted iron and fertilisers.Share of energy-related CO2 emisionsNumber of hydrogen strategies602330542024202320222021Policies2021202220242023Electrolyser installation Billion USD82%80%47%22%Investment0.30.62.97.0202120222024e20239132541Electrolyser manufac

100、turing capacityGW/yr4xgrowthsince 2021GHR 21GHR 22GHR 242030 NZEGHR 2320107155166179Announced electrolyser manufacturing capacity by 2030GW/yrTotalFIDElectrolyser installed capacityGW202120222024e20230.60.71.45.29xgrowthsince 2021Announced electrolyser projects by 2030GWTotalEarly stageFIDGHR 21GHR

101、22GHR 242030 NZEGHR 2390235420516558Low-emissions hydrogenMtpaRenewablesFossil fuels with CCUS202120222024e20230.60.70.71.0Low-emissions hydrogen production from announced projects by 2030MtpaRenewablesFossil fuels with CCUSFIDGHR 21GHR 22GHR 242030 NZEGHR 2359141028374917111050%growthsince 2021Prod

102、uctionGlobal Hydrogen Review Summary ProgressNote:2024e=Estimated based on announced projects.FID=Final Investment Decision.Global Hydrogen Review 2024 Chapter 1.Introduction PAGE|17 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Chapter 1.Introduction Overview The global energy sector is experiencing a profound transformation as

103、efforts to tackle climate change and bolster energy security drive the shift toward cleaner,more sustainable energy sources.In this evolving landscape,interest in low-emissions hydrogen has grown rapidly due to a combination of drivers.First,it is widely recognised as a key solution for decarbonisin

104、g sectors where emissions are hard to abate and other options are limited,such as in heavy industry,shipping and aviation.Second,the recent global energy crisis has further accelerated the push for low-emissions hydrogen,thanks to its potential to enhance energy security;as a consequence of the cris

105、is,governments have intensified their net zero emission commitments,integrating low-emissions hydrogen into their strategic plans.Third,several major economies have recently introduced new industrial policies in which hydrogen technologies are prominently featured.However,despite this progress,the a

106、doption of low-emissions hydrogen is yet to take off and there are still significant challenges to be overcome to fully realise its potential.This fourth edition of the IEA Global Hydrogen Review assesses the advances within the hydrogen sector in the past year,focusing on the critical role of low-e

107、missions hydrogen in the clean energy transition.By examining developments since the release of the Global Hydrogen Review 2023(in September 2023)and pinpointing areas that need further attention,the report aims to guide governments,industries,and other stakeholders on the steps needed to ensure tha

108、t hydrogen contributes effectively to a sustainable energy system.The report begins with an analysis of the current state of hydrogen use and production.While global hydrogen use is on the rise,it remains heavily concentrated in traditional applications like refining and the chemical industry,with m

109、ost production still based on unabated fossil fuels.Low-emissions hydrogen production has grown marginally over the past 2 years.Project developers are slowly starting to take investment decisions,although they are still facing significant barriers.The report also assesses the situation of trade and

110、 infrastructure development.Several shipments of low-emissions hydrogen-based fuels,particularly ammonia,occurred last year;however,overall traded volumes remain small,and most projects are still in the early stages of development.Activities to develop hydrogen infrastructure remain concentrated on

111、project announcements,with a very limited number of projects moving ahead to construction stage.The Global Hydrogen Global Hydrogen Review 2024 Chapter 1.Introduction PAGE|18 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Review also presents trends in investment and innovation in the hydrogen sector.Investment is growing,stimulat

112、ed mostly by policy action,but it is still well below the levels needed for a successful energy transition.Progress in the development of key technologies is starting to accelerate as a result of the growing efforts made by governments to support innovation in the last decade.The parts of the report

113、 devoted to tracking developments conclude with a policy chapter that summarises the main new policies adopted since the previous edition of the Global Hydrogen Review.Finally,this years Global Hydrogen Review includes two special focus chapters.The first presents an update of the analysis on the GH

114、G emissions of hydrogen production following the IEA report on this topic for the G7 in 2023.We have reassessed the different production routes with the framework established by the ISO Technical Specification 19870:2023 and have extended the analysis to cover the whole supply chain of hydrogen and

115、hydrogen-based fuels.The second special thematic chapter is a regional focus on Latin America and the Caribbean,assessing the best short-term opportunities for the region to develop supply chains for low-emissions hydrogen,hydrogen-based fuels and other hydrogen-based products.The CEM Hydrogen Initi

116、ative Developed under the Clean Energy Ministerial framework,the Hydrogen Initiative(H2I)is a voluntary multi-governmental initiative that aims to advance policies,programmes and projects that accelerate the commercialisation and deployment of hydrogen and fuel cell technologies across all areas of

117、the economy.The IEA serves as the H2I co-ordinator to support member governments as they develop activities aligned with the initiative.H2I currently comprises the following participating governments and intergovernmental entities:Australia,Austria,Brazil,Canada,Chile,the Peoples Republic of China(h

118、ereafter“China”),Costa Rica,the European Commission,Finland,Germany,India,Italy,Japan,the Netherlands,New Zealand,Norway,Portugal,the Republic of Korea(hereafter“Korea”),Saudi Arabia,South Africa,the United Arab Emirates,the United Kingdom and the United States.Canada,the European Commission,Japan,t

119、he Netherlands and the United States co-lead the initiative,while China and Italy are observers.H2I is also a platform to co-ordinate and facilitate co-operation among governments,other international initiatives and the industry sector.H2I has active partnerships with the Breakthrough Agenda,the Hyd

120、rogen Council,the International Partnership for Hydrogen and Fuel Cells in the Economy(IPHE),the International Renewable Energy Agency(IRENA),the Mission Innovation Clean Global Hydrogen Review 2024 Chapter 1.Introduction PAGE|19 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Hydrogen Mission,the World Economic Forum,the United Na

121、tions Industrial Development Organization(UNIDO),and the IEA Advanced Fuel Cells and Hydrogen Technology Collaboration Programmes(TCPs),all of which are part of the H2I Advisory Group and participate in various activities of the H2I.In addition,several industrial partners actively participate in the

122、 H2I Advisory Groups biannual meetings,including Ballard,Enel,Engie,Nel Hydrogen,the Port of Rotterdam Authority and thyssenkrupp nucera.Global Hydrogen Review 2024 Chapter 2.Hydrogen demand PAGE|20 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Chapter 2.Hydrogen demand Highlights Global hydrogen demand reached more than 97 Mt in

123、 2023 and could reach almost 100 Mt in 2024.However,this increase should be seen as a consequence of wider economic trends rather than the result of successful policy implementation.Hydrogen demand remains concentrated in refining and industry applications,where it has been used for decades.Its adop

124、tion in new applications where hydrogen should play a key role in the clean energy transition heavy industry,long-distance transport and energy storage accounts for less than 1%of global demand,despite 40%growth compared with 2022.Demand for low-emissions hydrogen grew almost 10%in 2023,but still ac

125、counts for less than 1 Mt.Government action has intensified recently,through implementation of mandates,incentive schemes and market development tools.This could boost demand to over 6 Mtpa by 2030,although this would equal around one-tenth of the needs of the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario(NZE

126、 Scenario).Industry is responding to these policy efforts and signing a growing number of offtake agreements.Moreover,these agreements are moving from Memoranda of Understanding to firm contractual arrangements.Chemical,refining and the shipping sectors present the largest amount of contracted deman

127、d,as well as the largest share of firm agreements.Industry is also making other efforts to facilitate uptake,such as tenders and co-operative initiatives for demand aggregation of hydrogen and hydrogen-based fuels and feedstocks.Several large-scale projects for the production of low-emissions hydrog

128、en for use in refining,chemicals production and steel manufacturing reached final investment decisions(FID)last year.The committed projects in these sectors could lead to a demand for 1.5 Mtpa of low-emissions hydrogen by 2030,3 times more than today.There are contrasting trends in different transpo

129、rt subsectors.In road transport,the market is slowing down,with the focus shifting from cars to heavy-duty vehicles.In shipping and aviation,the use of hydrogen and hydrogen-based fuels is gaining interest,especially where policy support is in place,though slow market penetration has led to the canc

130、ellation of some ambitious projects for the supply of these fuels.In the power sector,progress is particularly strong in Japan and Korea,where companies are moving forward with several major demonstrations,and the governments have established the first auctions for hydrogen and ammonia-based electri

131、city generation.Global Hydrogen Review 2024 Chapter 2.Hydrogen demand PAGE|21 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Overview and outlook Global hydrogen demand continued to grow in 2023 to reach a new high of more than 97 Mt,a 2.5%increase compared with 2022(Figure 2.1).Demand has been growing continuously for several dec

132、ades,with the exception of 2020,when the Covid-19 pandemic led to an economic slowdown.We estimate that growth will continue in 2024 and global hydrogen demand could reach close to 100 Mt.The regional distribution of demand remained largely unchanged from 2022:China was again the largest hydrogen us

133、er,accounting for nearly one-third of global demand(close to 28 Mt),more than double that of the second largest user,the United States,with 13 Mt(14%of global demand).Hydrogen demand grew modestly in all major regions,apart from in the Middle East,where growth was much steeper(more than 6%growth yea

134、r-on-year,due to an increase in demand in refining and methanol production)and India(more than 5%growth year-on-year due to larger demand in refining and the steel sector).Figure 2.1 Hydrogen demand by sector and by region,historical and in the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario,2019-2030 IEA.CC BY

135、 4.0.Notes:NZE=Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario.“Other”includes buildings and biofuels upgrading.2024e=estimate for 2024.The estimated value for 2024 is a projection based on trends observed until June 2024.Hydrogen demand reached 97 Mt in 2023 but remained highly concentrated in traditional appl

136、ications in industry and refining.Hydrogen demand remains concentrated in traditional applications(Box 2.1),namely refining,the chemical sector(ammonia and methanol production)and steel manufacturing(to produce iron via the direct reduced iron DRI route using fossil-based synthesis gas).This demand

137、is almost completely met with hydrogen produced from unabated fossil fuels.As in previous years,the growth in global hydrogen demand was not a result of policy support,but rather of global industry trends,and had no benefit in terms of mitigating climate change.On the contrary:China29%North America1

138、6%Middle East14%India9%Europe8%Rest of world24%Hydrogen use by region,20230 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160201920202021202220232024e2030NZEMtpa H2Hydrogen use by sector,2019-2030OtherPowerSynfuelsTransportRefiningIndustryNewTraditionalGlobal Hydrogen Review 2024 Chapter 2.Hydrogen demand PAGE|22 I EA.CC

139、 BY 4.0.CO2 emissions associated with hydrogen production and use increased to reach 920 Mt CO2,1 1.5%more than in 2022 and equivalent to the annual emissions of Indonesia and France combined.In the transition to a net zero emissions energy system,demand for hydrogen produced with unabated fossil fu

140、els will need to be replaced with demand for low-emissions hydrogen.Furthermore,use of low-emissions hydrogen will also need to expand to new applications in sectors in which emissions are hard to abate,such as heavy industry,long-distance transport,the production of hydrogen-based fuels or electric

141、ity generation and storage.Uptake of hydrogen in these new applications grew nearly 40%in 2023 compared with 2022,although they still account for less than 1%of global demand(and less than 0.1%if excluding biofuels upgrading).In the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario(NZE Scenario),hydrogen demand r

142、eaches close to 150 Mtpa by 2030,45%of which is low-emissions hydrogen.Almost 40%of global demand comes from new applications,meaning that demand in these new applications needs to grow more than 80-fold by 2030.Box 2.1 Reporting hydrogen demand in the Global Hydrogen Review In this report,demand in

143、cludes hydrogen that has been intentionally produced for utilisation,including more than 75 Mt H2 which is used as pure hydrogen in ammonia production and refining,and more than 20 Mt H2 which is mixed with carbon-containing gases in methanol production and steel manufacturing.It excludes around 30

144、Mt H2 which is present in residual gases from industrial processes(e.g.coke ovens and steam crackers),which is used for heat and electricity generation.This hydrogen is not deliberately produced for a specific application,rather its use is linked to the inherent presence of hydrogen in these residua

145、l streams.In addition,in this report we do not include estimations of historical use of small amounts of hydrogen in glassmaking,electronics and metal processing(which account for around 1 Mtpa).Traditional and new applications for hydrogen Beyond the existing applications for hydrogen in refining,t

146、he chemical industry,steel production,and other specialised applications,hydrogen can also be used in a wide range of new applications.Hydrogen has not yet been used at scale in these applications,but decarbonisation efforts are expected to drive up hydrogen use in some of these new applications,1 C

147、onsidering 0 kg CO2/kg H2 for hydrogen produced as a by-product in naphtha crackers and steam crackers.Considering a maximum of 10 kg CO2/kg H2 emissions would increase up to 1 070 Mt CO2.This includes direct emissions from hydrogen production and close to 300 Mt of CO2 utilised in the synthesis of

148、urea and methanol,the majority of which is later emitted.This excludes upstream and midstream emissions for fossil fuel supply.Global Hydrogen Review 2024 Chapter 2.Hydrogen demand PAGE|23 I EA.CC BY 4.0.particularly in sectors where emissions are hard to abate,and other low-emissions technologies a

149、re either unavailable or very difficult to implement.Tracking total hydrogen use alone is not sufficient to assess progress on hydrogen adoption,and particularly whether it is happening in the direction and at the pace required for hydrogen to play its role in the clean energy transition.The use of

150、hydrogen by application also needs to be tracked in order to assess uptake in new applications.For reporting purposes in the IEAs Global Hydrogen Review,we use two categories of applications for hydrogen:Traditional applications,including refining;feedstock to produce ammonia,methanol and other chem

151、icals;and as a reducing agent to produce DRI using fossil-based synthesis gas.This category also includes the use of hydrogen in electronics,glassmaking or metal processing,although these are not included in our tracking.Potential new applications,such as the use of hydrogen as a reducing agent in 1

152、00%-hydrogen DRI,long-distance transport,production of hydrogen-based fuels(such as ammonia or synthetic hydrocarbons),biofuels upgrading(e.g.hydrogenation of fats and oils),high-temperature heating in industry,and electricity storage and generation,as well as other applications in which hydrogen us

153、e is expected to be very small due to the existence of more efficient low-emissions alternatives.Demand creation for low-emissions hydrogen Demand for low-emissions hydrogen grew almost 10%in 2023 compared to 2022 but remains very low accounting for less than 1%of global demand.Low-emissions hydroge

154、n is more costly than hydrogen from unabated fossil fuels,which is preventing its adoption among most existing hydrogen users.This premium is also hindering its uptake in new applications in which low-emissions hydrogen could replace the direct use of fossil fuels.Without policy action that can help

155、 close the cost gap or stimulate market players to commit to using low-emissions hydrogen,demand will remain limited to small efforts from companies that have ambitious sustainability goals,or want to familiarise themselves with the technology through demonstration efforts before a larger market eme

156、rges.Against this backdrop,demand-side policies are now starting to attract more attention(see Chapter 6.Policies),following several years in which governments have prioritised the supply side.With the current policy landscape,demand for low-emissions hydrogen could grow ten-fold by 2030,reaching mo

157、re than 6 Mtpa.While this would represent significant progress compared with today,it is a far cry from the 65 Mtpa needed by 2030 in the NZE Scenario.Global Hydrogen Review 2024 Chapter 2.Hydrogen demand PAGE|24 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Figure 2.2 Low-emissions hydrogen demand by sector in 2023,and in the St

158、ated Policies Scenario and the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario,2030 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Notes:NZE=Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario.STEPS=Stated Policies Scenario.“Other”includes buildings and biofuels upgrading.Demand for low-emissions hydrogen could exceed 6 Mtpa by 2030 with current policy settin

159、gs,but would need to reach 65 Mtpa,across many applications,to align with the NZE Scenario.In the private sector,the number and size of offtake agreements between companies have grown in recent years.2 These offtake agreements are crucial for helping to derisk investment in projects to produce low-e

160、missions hydrogen.In 2023,companies signed agreements for more than 2 Mt of low-emissions hydrogen-equivalent per year(Mtpa H2-eq),3 of which nearly 40%is covered by firm agreements.4 The largest share of agreements(35%)was related to hydrogen trade projects without a disclosed final application,alt

161、hough all these agreements are still at the preliminary stage.The second largest share was linked to the chemical sector,accounting for almost one-fifth of the total offtake agreed,and almost half of the agreements are firm.The chemical sector is today the sector with the largest historical offtake

162、included in firm agreements:of the 1.7 Mtpa H2-eq that have been included in firm offtake agreements across all sectors since 2021,nearly 0.6 Mtpa H2-eq belong to the chemical sector.Notably,the NEOM project the largest electrolysis project in the world currently under construction can count on an o

163、fftake contract for its full production with Air Products.Other large projects in Canada and India that have very recently reached FID also have offtake agreements with the chemicals sector.2 This analysis excludes numerous small offtake agreements in the road transport sector,which altogether accou

164、nt for very small quantities at global level.As a reference,global demand for hydrogen in the transport sector in 2023 reached around 60 kt(see Transport),mostly produced from unabated fossil fuels.3 This includes agreements for offtake of hydrogen and hydrogen-based fuels.4 Firm agreements include

165、contractual arrangements with binding conditions for both suppliers and offtakers,whereas preliminary agreements include other type of non-binding deals,such as MoUs.0 10 20 30 40 50 60 702023Additional STEPSSTEPS 2030Additional NZENZE 2030Mtpa H2023STEPSNZEIndustryRefiningTransportSynfuelsPowerOthe

166、rDemand by sectorTotal demandGlobal Hydrogen Review 2024 Chapter 2.Hydrogen demand PAGE|25 I EA.CC BY 4.0.The refining and shipping sectors,despite having agreed smaller quantities than the chemical sector,both have larger shares of firm agreements.This suggests that traditional applications for hyd

167、rogen(ammonia production,methanol production and refining)are the best-placed to adopt low-emissions hydrogen in the near term,since they present a lower technology risk than new applications.Other sectors where there have been a significant number of offtake agreements are steel,electricity generat

168、ion and aviation,with shares of firm agreements ranging from 20-30%.However,offtake agreements in these sectors are much more regionally concentrated.Most of the offtake agreements in power generation have offtakers concentrated in Japan and Korea,boosted by government plans to use hydrogen and ammo

169、nia to decarbonise power generation,although the suppliers are distributed across Australia,the Middle East,North America and Southeast Asia.In the case of steel,almost all offtake agreements(both on the supply and offtake sides)are between European companies,which have for many years spearheaded te

170、chnology developments in the sector.Finally,in the case of aviation,offtakers are mostly from European companies,a trend that seems to have accelerated in response to the ReFuelEU Aviation mandates that entered into force in 2023,although suppliers include project developers in Europe and in North A

171、merica.Figure 2.3 Offtake agreements signed for low-emissions hydrogen and hydrogen-based fuels,2021-2024 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Notes:“Unknown”includes offtake agreements without a disclosed end use for hydrogen and hydrogen-based fuels.Only offtake agreements disclosing the amount agreed and stating that t

172、hey will take place before 2030 have been included.2024 data includes agreements until August.Announcements for hydrogen production and self-consumption are not included.Sources:IEA analysis based on announcements of offtake agreements for hydrogen and hydrogen-based fuels and data from Argus Media

173、Group,BloombergNEF and S&P Global.The number of offtake agreements for low-emissions hydrogen and hydrogen-based fuels is growing,with several large,firm agreements announced,albeit accounting for just 1.7 Mtpa.ChemicalsSteelOther industryRoad transportAviationShippingRefiningPowerOther/Unknown0%20%

174、40%60%80%100%0.000.250.500.751.001.251.50Share of firm agreements(%)Agreed volume(Mtpa H-eq)Cumulative agreements(2020-2024)0%15%30%45%0.000.501.001.502.002.503.00202120222023 2024*Mtpa H-eqYear of signingAnnual agreementsIndustryChemicalsSteelOtherTransportRoad transportAviationShippingOtherRefinin

175、gPowerOther/UnknownShare of firm agreementsIndustryTransportOtherGlobal Hydrogen Review 2024 Chapter 2.Hydrogen demand PAGE|26 I EA.CC BY 4.0.The recent trend for calls for tenders is also a sign of action in the private sector:in the past year,six companies5 have launched calls for tenders that tog

176、ether account for close to 1 Mtpa H2(Table 2.1).The largest tender was launched by TotalEnergies in September 2023,with the aim of decarbonising hydrogen used in its refining operations in Europe.The company recently reported that a large number of offers were received,though at a high average price

177、 of around EUR 8/kg H2(USD 9/kg H2).Table 2.1 Tenders for procuring low-emissions hydrogen and hydrogen-based fuels launched since September 2023 Company Sector Tendered volume Details and conditions TotalEnergies Refining 500 ktpa H2-Salzgitter AG Steel Up to 141 ktpa H2 Bidders must ensure that hy

178、drogen complies with the EU regulations for Renewable Fuels of Non-Biological Origin or are“low-carbon”according to the EU Taxonomy.Deliveries to start from 2027.thyssenkrupp Steel Europe AG Steel 143 ktpa H2 Three-phase process:request for information(February 2024),request for proposals(Q2 2024)an

179、d request for quotations(Q3 2024).10-year contracts for hydrogen delivered from 2028 via pipeline to its Duisburg plant.Solar Energy Corporation of India Fertiliser 750 ktpa ammonia(NH3)(135 ktpa H2)10-year contracts,with 3 years of government subsidies.Ammonia delivered to 11 pre-selected fertilise

180、r production sites in India.Stahl-Holding-Saar Steel 50 ktpa H2 Hydrogen delivered via the MosaHYc pipeline from 2027.National Highways Construction 1 ktpa H2 Aims to buy 5.9 kt of low-emissions hydrogen over 5 years from 2027.In addition to these initiatives,the private sector is also developing se

181、ctoral coalitions in which several companies join forces to aggregate demand for hydrogen-based fuels,thus distributing cost and risks among the members of coalition while sending larger demand signals that can facilitate scale-up on the supply side.In the aviation sector,efforts include the Sustain

182、able Aviation Buyers Alliance and the Qantas Sustainable Aviation Fuel Coalition(see Aviation for more details).In the maritime sector,the Zero Emission Maritime Buyers Alliance(ZEMBA,launched by the Cargo Owners for Zero Emission Vessels platform in 2023)announced in April 2024 the successful compl

183、etion of its first collective tender for zero-emissions shipping solutions.Although the winner of the first 5 Two of the tenders were launched by state-owned companies:the Solar Energy Corporation of India and National Highways.Global Hydrogen Review 2024 Chapter 2.Hydrogen demand PAGE|27 I EA.CC BY

184、 4.0.tender will use biomethane as shipping fuel,ZEMBA announced that subsequent tenders(the next is expected before the end of 2024)will focus on developing the market for hydrogen-based fuels.Also in shipping,in 2024 the Rocky Mountain Institute,the Mrsk Mc-Kinney Mller Center for Zero Carbon Ship

185、ping,the ZEMBA and Hapag-Lloyd are expected to launch a new pilot system for Maritime Book-and-Claim chain of custody.In the steel sector,in September 2023 RMI also launched a Sustainable Steel Buyers Platform to aggregate demand for low-emissions steel.Box 2.2 Co-ordinated efforts to facilitate mar

186、ket development The uncertainty surrounding demand for low-emissions hydrogen is a significant barrier to investment on the supply side.Similarly,offtakers face uncertainties about supplies being available when they plan to adopt low-emissions hydrogen.Furthermore,infrastructure developers require c

187、lear insights into potential flows of low-emissions hydrogen between producers and users in order to create viable deployment plans.Co-ordination among stakeholders can mitigate these uncertainties by de-risking offtake for suppliers,improving visibility of supply for users,and facilitating planning

188、 for infrastructure developers.Such co-ordination can,in turn,stimulate investment flows and accelerate the adoption of low-emissions hydrogen.To improve co-ordination,several stakeholders have launched match-making platforms that aim to facilitate market development in its early stages,connect prod

189、ucers with potential offtakers,assist infrastructure developers in planning,and enhance market transparency.Some platform developers also aim to facilitate price discovery.The European Commission pioneered this effort in 2021 with the Important Projects of Common European Interest(IPCEI)Hydrogen Mat

190、ch-making Procedure,with the aim of connecting stakeholders for the preparation of proposals for the IPCEI Hydrogen application,although this platform only operated for a short period of time until the proposals for IPCEI were presented in 2022.The first platform to have operated continuously was th

191、e H2 Matchmaker tool of the US Department of Energy(DoE),launched in 2022.This tool helps“clean”hydrogen producers,end users and other stakeholders across the hydrogen value chain including infrastructure developers;manufacturers;Engineering,Procurement and Construction companies;and researchers fin

192、d potential partners to build networks and develop comprehensive supply chain projects for low-emissions hydrogen production and use.The platform is now integrated with the Regional Clean Hydrogen Hubs Program,enabling stakeholders to share detailed information about their activities,forecasts and p

193、roject descriptions.Global Hydrogen Review 2024 Chapter 2.Hydrogen demand PAGE|28 I EA.CC BY 4.0.In the European Union,under the decarbonised gases and hydrogen package approved in April 2024,the European Commission has created a pilot mechanism to collect,process and provide access to information o

194、n the demand and supply of low-emissions hydrogen and its derivatives.This allows European offtakers to match with both European and non-European suppliers.It is expected to be operational from mid-2025,and to run for 5 years as part of the European Hydrogen Bank.Some European Gas Transmission Syste

195、m Operators have also launched their own platforms.For example,Gasunie introduced its Match&Connect service in May 2023,which helps market parties connect with potential customers,producers,or shippers of hydrogen via an online platform.Fluxys launched a request for information to collect data on po

196、tential hydrogen producers and demand in Belgium,informing its infrastructure planning.Unlike Gasunie,which does not play an active role in matching market parties,Fluxys is currently facilitating regional mutual exchanges among companies that participated in the request for information process,spec

197、ifically in Antwerp,Ghent,Hainaut,Lige and Limbourg.At the international level,the Clean Hydrogen Mission has also launched a match-making tool as part of its Hydrogen Valleys platform,to help stakeholders to connect with the hydrogen valleys featured.Also noteworthy are the activities of Hintco,a s

198、ubsidiary of the H2Global Foundation.While Hintco is not a match-making platform,it aims to improve market transparency by publishing information from the results of the H2Global mechanism auctions.This includes details on the companies that will be selling the hydrogen and hydrogen-based fuels,pric

199、es,and locations for production and delivery,as well as information on the companies that will buy the products,and at what price.Refining Hydrogen demand in refining reached 43 Mt in 2023,over 1 Mt more than the previous record from 2022.Growth in demand has been concentrated in China(+0.9 Mt)and t

200、he Middle East(+0.5 Mt),whereas demand in all the other major regions remained largely similar to 2022.Demand growth in China was a consequence of the turnaround in government policy with regards to restricting exports,and the lifting of pandemic-related measures,which led to record demand and recor

201、d high refinery runs at the start of the year.However,the United States still accounts for the largest share of demand and is still expected to process more crude than China through 2024,before being overtaken.Global Hydrogen Review 2024 Chapter 2.Hydrogen demand PAGE|29 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Figure 2.4 Hy

202、drogen use by region and source of hydrogen for refining,historical and in the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario,2019-2030 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Notes:NZE=Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario.Fossil w/o CCUS=fossil fuels without carbon capture,utilisation and storage;Fossil w CCUS=fossil fuels with carbon

203、capture,utilisation and storage.“Onsite”refers to the production of hydrogen inside refineries,including dedicated captive production and as a by-product of catalytic reformers.Hydrogen demand in refining reached another record high in 2023,but this trend is expected to reverse soon thanks to measur

204、es that could affect demand for oil products.As in previous years,hydrogen demand in refineries was mostly met by onsite production from unabated fossil fuels(45%)and by-production from different operations(more than 35%),such as naphtha catalytic reforming.The remainder(close to 20%)was externally

205、sourced as merchant hydrogen,6 and mostly produced from unabated fossil fuels.Although demand growth for refined oil products(and therefore for hydrogen in refining)is expected to slow down in the near future,it is not expected to fall enough to get on track with the NZE Scenario,in which global dem

206、and for hydrogen in refining drops to under 35 Mt by 2030.At the same time,the adoption of low-emissions hydrogen in refining is expected to accelerate.In 2023,demand for low-emissions hydrogen in refining reached almost 250 kt,just 4%more than in 2022.Practically all this growth came from the ramp-

207、up of the Yanchang Integrated Carbon Capture and Storage Demonstration project(which entered into operation in mid-2022)and Sinopecs Kuqa facility(which started partial operation in 2023),both in China.The Kuqa project is today the largest operational electrolysis plant(260 MW),but it has been exper

208、iencing operational challenges related to lower-than-expected efficiencies of the electrolysers supplied,and issues with their ability to handle power fluctuations 6 Merchant hydrogen refers to hydrogen that is purchased from external producers who then deliver hydrogen to the end users,normally by

209、trucking or using regional,privately owned hydrogen networks.In the case of refineries,merchant hydrogen is typically produced in plants very close to the refinery,and sometimes even in the same location,but in plants operated by another company,given that hydrogen is not a global commodity today.0

210、5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45201920202021202220232030NZEMtpa HUse by regionNorth AmericaChinaMiddle EastEuropeIndiaOther AsiaRest of worldGlobal 2030 NZE0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45201920202021202220232030NZESource of hydrogen Onsite-by-productOnsite-fossil w/o CCUSOnsite-fossil w CCUSOnsite-electricityM

211、erchantGlobal Hydrogen Review 2024 Chapter 2.Hydrogen demand PAGE|30 I EA.CC BY 4.0.from the renewable electricity generation assets.7 This has limited its production,and it is not expected to operate at full capacity until 2025.Elsewhere,since the start of 2024,one 10 MW electrolysis(able to produc

212、e around 1.5 ktpa H2)project has started operation,in Hungary,and some others currently under construction are expected to become operational before the end of the year.However,these additions are not expected to have a significant impact on the use of low-emissions hydrogen in refineries this year,

213、with demand potentially reaching 260 kt.At the time of writing,projects for low-emissions hydrogen for refineries accounting for a total production of more than 220 ktpa have already reached FID or are currently under construction.Since the Global Hydrogen Review 2023(GHR 2023),a handful of large pr

214、ojects for the production of low-emissions hydrogen for refineries have reached FID:Two 100 MW electrolysis projects,one from GALP at the Sines refinery(Portugal)and another from Shell at its refinery in Rheinland(Germany),each able to produce up to 15 ktpa of renewable hydrogen.The first phase of B

215、Ps HyVal project at Castellon(Spain),with a capacity of 25 MW(able to produce close to 4 ktpa H2).This could be extended up to 2 GW in the future.Two projects,one from Air Liquide and one from Air Products,for the production of around 100 kt of hydrogen from natural gas with CCUS(both retrofitting e

216、xisting hydrogen production units)linked to the Porthos carbon capture and storage(CCS)project in Rotterdam.Shells Polaris project,with an undisclosed hydrogen production capacity,which will capture 650 kt of CO2 from the Scotford refinery and chemicals complex(Canada).If all the announced projects

217、for the production of low-emissions hydrogen for use in refineries are realised on time(according to their original development plans),1.6 Mtpa of low-emissions hydrogen could be used in refining activities by 2030(close to 1.5 Mtpa if projects at very early stages of development are excluded).This

218、would meet around one-quarter of the need in the NZE Scenario.Europe dominates the pipeline of announced projects,followed by North America.The majority of projects have not yet reached FID,but the adoption of targets for the use of renewable hydrogen in the EU Renewable Energy Directive(which are n

219、ow in the process of being transposed to national legislation),is expected to bring about more FIDs in the region in the near future.For example,the Dutch government is working on a scheme to award tradable certificates to fuel suppliers that adopt hydrogen that complies with the renewable fuels of

220、non-biological origin(RFNBO)regulation in refineries from 2026.Elsewhere,India has also taken first steps towards adopting low-emissions hydrogen in refining,with state-owned oil 7 Chinas World-Leading Green Hydrogen Project Faces Slow Ramp Up,Bloomberg New Energy Finance,3 January 2024;Green Hydrog

221、en Production Technology Faces a Reality Test,Bloomberg New Energy Finance,17 January 2024.Global Hydrogen Review 2024 Chapter 2.Hydrogen demand PAGE|31 I EA.CC BY panies having opened tenders to build,own and operate low-emissions hydrogen production in plants in the Panipat and Numaligarh refineri

222、es.Figure 2.5 Onsite production of low-emissions hydrogen for refining by technology,region and status,historical and from announced projects,compared to the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario,2021-2030 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Notes:CCUS=carbon capture,utilisation and storage;FID=final investment decision;GH

223、R 2023=Global Hydrogen Review 2023;NZE=Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario.2024 values are estimates considering projects that have at least taken FID and are expected to be operational during 2024.Only planned projects with a disclosed start year of operation are included.FID includes projects that

224、 are operational,under construction or that have reached FID.GHR 2023 shows the estimated production of low-emissions hydrogen from projects that were included in the IEA Hydrogen Production Projects Database as of August 2023.Source:IEA Hydrogen Production Projects Database(October 2024).Based on a

225、nnounced projects,1.6 Mtpa of low-emissions hydrogen could be produced in refineries by 2030,an amount that is little changed from last year.In addition to traditional oil refineries,biorefineries are attracting growing interest due to the decarbonisation potential of biofuels.Some projects under de

226、velopment are already considering the use of low-emissions hydrogen for upgrading these biofuels.Two plants,one in Canada(using renewable hydrogen)and one in France(using hydrogen from fossil fuels with CCUS),are expected to start operating in 2025-2026.In addition,in May 2024,OMV Petrom took an FID

227、 on a facility for the production of hydrotreated vegetable oils in its Petrobrazi refinery(Romania),which includes a 55 MW electrolysis plant to be operational from 2028.If all announced projects are realised according to their original development plants,close to 500 ktpa of low-emissions hydrogen

228、 could be used in the production of biofuels by 2030.Finally,hydrogen and hydrogen-based fuels can also play a role in reducing emissions from high-temperature processes in refineries.Essar has completed the installation of a first-of-a-kind furnace able to operate with pure hydrogen in its Stanlow

229、refinery(United Kingdom),although it will operate with natural gas until 0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.5ByregionBystatusNZE202120222023 2024e2030Mtpa HElectrolysisNorth AmericaEuropeChinaOtherGHR23By region:0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.5ByregionBystatusNZE202120222023 2024e2030Fossil fuels with CCUS2023FIDFeasib

230、iliyEarly stageBy status:Global Hydrogen Review 2024 Chapter 2.Hydrogen demand PAGE|32 I EA.CC BY 4.0.low-emissions hydrogen from the HyNet project can be supplied(expected in 2027).In addition,in March 2024,Idemitsu demonstrated for the first time the use of ammonia as a combustion fuel in a commer

231、cial naphtha cracking furnace at its Tokuyama complex(Japan),displacing 20%of fossil fuel consumption in the furnace.Industry Global hydrogen demand in industry reached 54 Mt in 2023,an increase of almost 2%year-on-year.About 60%of this demand was for ammonia production,30%for methanol and 10%for DR

232、I in the iron and steel subsector the same sectoral distribution as in previous years(Figure 2.6).The majority of hydrogen used in industry is produced from unabated fossil fuels in the same facilities where it is later used.Carbon capture is a common practice in some industry subsectors,although mo

233、st of the 140 Mtpa of CO2 captured is used for other industrial applications(such as urea production)and ends up being released,with only a handful of projects storing CO2 underground.As a result,hydrogen production in industry was responsible for around 680 Mt of direct CO2 emissions in 2023,up 0.6

234、%from 2022,approximately equal to the total CO2 emissions of Trkiye.Figure 2.6 Hydrogen use in industry by subsector and source of hydrogen,historical and in the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario,2020-2030 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Notes:Fossil w CCS=fossil fuels with carbon capture and storage;Fossil w CCU=f

235、ossil fuels with carbon capture and use;Fossil w/o CCUS=fossil fuels without carbon capture,utilisation and storage;NZE=Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario.Ammonia and methanol exclude fuel applications.Other includes dedicated hydrogen production for high-temperature heat applications.Source:IEA an

236、alysis based on data from Argus Media Group,International Fertilizer Association,World Steel Association.Hydrogen use in industry increased in 2023 to reach 54 Mt,mostly in ammonia,methanol and steel production.0 20 40 60 8020202021202220232030NZEMt hydrogenProduction by technologyOnsite-fossil w/o

237、CCUSOnsite-fossil w CCUOnsite-fossil w CCSOnsite-electricityMerchantOnsite-other0%25%50%75%100%0 20 40 60 8020202021202220232030NZEMt H2Demand by sectorAmmoniaMethanolSteelOtherShare of low emissionsGlobal Hydrogen Review 2024 Chapter 2.Hydrogen demand PAGE|33 I EA.CC BY 4.0.The increase in global h

238、ydrogen demand in industry was mainly driven by use in ammonia production,with global demand rising by 2.2%,and by DRI,with 4.8%growth.China remains the main consumer of hydrogen in industrial applications,accounting for 34%of global industrial use,followed by the Middle East(15%),North America(10%)

239、,India(9%)and Europe(6%).The Middle East is currently seeing some of the fastest growth in demand in industry,with a 4%increase in 2023.This is mainly driven by methanol production(up 8%in 2023),especially in Iran(+20%),which is investing in methanol production to satisfy the needs of the chemical i

240、ndustry and the transportation sector.Two projects are due to start production by the end of 2024,Dena Petrochemical and Siraf Energy,each adding 1.6 Mt of capacity.On the basis of projects that are relatively committed and those already in construction,Iran could add a further 5 Mt of fossil-based

241、methanol production capacity in the next 5 years accounting for a large share of global production,which currently stands at around 115 Mt.In Europe,the 10%growth in hydrogen demand in industry in 2023 must be seen in the context of a 30%fall in demand in 2022,when ammonia production dropped by one-

242、third as a result of the energy crisis triggered by Russias invasion of Ukraine.Ammonia production picked up in 2023 as energy prices stabilised,growing by 10%,but remains far below pre-invasion levels.As a result,Europes hydrogen demand in industry in 2023 was 25%lower than in 2021.In the NZE Scena

243、rio,hydrogen use in industry grows to 70 Mtpa by 2030.Meeting this need would require close to a 4%annual increase in production,compared to just 1.3%over the past 4 years.Furthermore,about one-quarter of industrial hydrogen demand needs to be satisfied by low-emissions hydrogen by 2030,which would

244、require most new capacity additions to be low-emissions,as well as retrofits to some existing stock.Beyond traditional applications in the chemical and steel sectors,hydrogen use also increases in new industrial applications.For example,by 2030 in the NZE Scenario,hydrogen DRI and high-temperature h

245、eating together account for around 15%of global hydrogen demand in industry.Low-emissions hydrogen production in industrial plants in 2023 was about 280 kt,almost the same level as in 2022.More than 90%of this capacity relies on fossil fuels with CCUS,with installations spread across North America,t

246、he Middle East and China.In 2024,production is expected to grow to 370 kt on the basis of planned capacity additions.There has been relatively significant progress in the production of hydrogen from electrolysis since the publication of the GHR 2023,with over 1 GW of electrolyser capacity likely to

247、commence production in 2024.As much as two-thirds of this capacity is in China,and of this,more than 90%is for the production of ammonia.Outside of China,Yaras Porsgrunn plant(Norway),Global Hydrogen Review 2024 Chapter 2.Hydrogen demand PAGE|34 I EA.CC BY 4.0.CFs Donaldsonville plant(United States)

248、and the Unigel project(Brazil)are the largest projects producing low-emissions hydrogen coming online in 2024.The near-term outlook for low-emissions hydrogen production in industry continues to improve:Together,projects already under construction or which have taken an FID would be able to produce

249、more than 750 ktpa by 2030.The vast majority are concentrated in China and Europe(with around 45%and 30%respectively).In addition,there has been an increase in projects for methanol production,particularly in China,though it is likely that this is for use as an alternative fuel(for example in shippi

250、ng)rather than for industrial use.Nevertheless,despite this improving outlook,some projects planning to produce DRI using low-emissions hydrogen are reporting that availability of hydrogen is limited,and that support to improve affordability is insufficient,which might delay their planned switch to

251、using 100%hydrogen.The most noteworthy developments since the release of the GHR 2023 are:AM Green took FID for a 1.3 GW electrolysis project(India)able to produce around 1 Mtpa of ammonia for manufacturing nitrogen fertilisers.This project has been certified by CertifHy to be compliant with the EU

252、regulation for RFNBOs.Shanghai Electric-Taonan Wind Power with Biomass for Green Methanol8(China)started construction of its plant to produce 250 kt of methanol per year using electrolytic hydrogen.The Hy4Chem-EI project(Germany)is beginning construction of a 54 MW electrolysis project,with an estim

253、ated production capacity of around 8 ktpa H2 for the chemicals industry.Yaras green fertiliser project at Porsgrunn,Herya(Norway)began operations in May 2024,using a 24 MW electrolyser to produce hydrogen for use in ammonia production.Project Oshivela(Namibia)began construction in late 2023 and is e

254、xpected to come online from Q4 2024.The project initially aims to produce 15 kt of DRI per year using hydrogen from a 12 MW electrolyser(with an estimated production capacity of up to 2 ktpa H2),with future scale-up to 1 Mtpa of DRI capacity.This is one of the first African projects aiming to use lo

255、w-emissions hydrogen to have moved beyond feasibility studies.The Hygenco JSL plant opened in early 2024 and is Indias first steel plant using hydrogen from electrolysis and renewable electricity for the annealing process.Many additional projects have been announced in the past year.If all projects

256、come to fruition,low-emissions hydrogen production from fossil fuels with CCUS could reach 1.5 Mtpa by 2030,and production from electrolysis could reach 4.8 Mtpa by 2030(2.6 Mtpa if projects at very early stages of development are 8 4 green methanol production projects began construction this year i

257、n China,China Hydrogen Bulletin,29 April 2024.Global Hydrogen Review 2024 Chapter 2.Hydrogen demand PAGE|35 I EA.CC BY 4.0.excluded)(Figure 2.7).This is a noteworthy increase,but this growth is occurring from a very low base,and the combined 6.2 Mt of low-emissions hydrogen represents only 60%of wha

258、t is required under the NZE Scenario.Some of the newly announced projects include:FertigHys first plant(France),which aims to produce 500 ktpa of nitrogen-based fertilisers from electrolytic hydrogen.The Cormorant Clean Energy Project(United States),which will capture 1.4 Mtpa CO2 from ammonia produ

259、ction.Waaree Odisha(India),which plans to produce 1.2 Mtpa of ammonia based on renewable hydrogen.Zijin Mining Renewable energy project(Serbia),which aims to produce 30 ktpa of hydrogen for use at a copper mine and smelter.Figure 2.7 Onsite production of low-emissions hydrogen for industry applicati

260、ons by technology and status,historical and from announced projects,2021-2030 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Notes:GHR-23=Global Hydrogen Review 2023;FID=Final investment decision;NZE=Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario.2024e values are estimates considering projects that have at least taken FID and are expected to

261、be operational during 2024.Source:IEA Hydrogen Production Projects(October 2024).Announced projects for the onsite production of low-emissions hydrogen in industry can reach 6.2 Mtpa by 2030,meeting 60%of needs in the NZE Scenario.Nonetheless,to align with the NZE Scenario,the onsite production of l

262、ow-emissions hydrogen from electrolysis using renewable electricity,and from fossil fuels with CCUS in the industry sector,needs to reach 7.4 Mtpa and 2.7 Mtpa of hydrogen,respectively,nearly double the production potential of the current project pipeline(and almost tripling it if projects at very e

263、arly stages of development are excluded).012345678BysectorBystatusNZE202120222023 2024e2030Mt HFossil fuels with CCUS2023FIDFeasibilityEarly stageBy status:012345678BysectorBystatusNZE202120222023 2024e2030Mt HElectrolysisAmmoniaMethanolSteelOtherGHR-23By sector:Global Hydrogen Review 2024 Chapter 2

264、.Hydrogen demand PAGE|36 I EA.CC BY 4.0.In addition to hydrogen produced onsite in industrial facilities,a significant number of projects aim to produce merchant hydrogen for delivery to industrial consumers.Merchant hydrogen projects can have certain advantages,such as producers partnering with mul

265、tiple industrial clients to spread risk,but transport infrastructure is required.We estimate that these projects could supply an additional 0.8 Mtpa of hydrogen to industrial consumers by 2030(0.7 Mt if projects at very early stages of development are excluded).Some key merchant hydrogen projects th

266、at have been announced are the Baytown project(United States),Sinopecs Ordos development(China),Project Catalina(Spain),the HyDeal project(Spain)and the Actis-Fortescue project(Oman).However,the realisation of these projects depends on their ability to secure offtakers for all their potential produc

267、tion(which in turn depends on their ability to reduce current production costs),and on the prospects for new or reused infrastructure to transport hydrogen to end users.These challenges have already led some of these projects to revise their originally announced plans.Use of hydrogen for heating app

268、lications in industry Putting the world on a pathway consistent with net zero emissions by 2050 will require new technologies that are still at the R&D phase today,such as for the use of hydrogen for high-temperature heating in industry,which is currently being investigated across new use cases in R

269、&D projects.Notably,several projects have recently been started(Table 2.2)with the aim of demonstrating the use of hydrogen in specialised process heating equipment and extending existing experience to industries outside of the chemical and steel sectors that are not used to working with hydrogen.Ta

270、ble 2.2 Selected applications of hydrogen and hydrogen-based fuels in industry and associated research and demonstration projects Application Research and demonstration projects Hydrogen in industrial Boilers While hydrogen has been used in industrial boilers for many years,this has generally been i

271、n specialised industries with significant experience using and handling hydrogen,like the chlor-alkali industry.Projects are ongoing in the food and drink industry,such as WhiskHy in Scotland,and in the paper industry,such as KCA in Australia.Ammonia in industrial boilers Ammonia,a key hydrogen deri

272、vative and hydrogen carrier,could provide heat to low-temperature heating in industrial boilers in place of natural gas.The UK-based“Amburn”project aims to demonstrate a megawatt scale ammonia-fed steam boiler system at a customer site.Global Hydrogen Review 2024 Chapter 2.Hydrogen demand PAGE|37 I

273、EA.CC BY 4.0.Application Research and demonstration projects Hydrogen in alumina calcination Natural gas could be replaced with hydrogen as a fuel for the high-temperature calcination process in alumina refining.In 2023 an AUD 111.1 million(Australian dollars)demonstration project was funded by Aust

274、ralian Renewable Energy Agency,using a 2.5 MW onsite electrolyser and retrofitting one of the calciners in a refinery to use a hydrogen burner.Hydrogen in glass furnaces Hydrogen could be used in glass furnaces,potentially in combination with electricity and other fuel sources.In Germany,Saint-Gobai

275、n is using hydrogen to replace more than 30%of the fossil fuels used in flat glass production.Ardagh Group is also replacing 20%of the natural gas with hydrogen for the production of some glass bottles,and Schott has recently produced optical glass using 100%hydrogen.Blended firing of hydrogen in di

276、rect fired equipment Hydrogen is already used in some cases as an additive to enhance combustion properties,and could be used as part of a low-emissions fuel mix in many sectors.For example,trials in the United Kingdom have investigated hydrogen as a partial replacement for fossil fuels in cement ki

277、lns and asphalt production.100%firing of hydrogen in direct fired equipment Hydrogen is also being tested as a“full”replacement fuel in some pieces of equipment,in some cases using oxyfuel combustion technology.In 2023,Tokyo Gas and building materials manufacturer Lixil tested hydrogen instead of na

278、tural gas for the heat treatment of aluminium products.Findings suggested there was no effect on the quality of aluminium products.In Europe,the HyTecHeat,HyINHeat and H2Glass projects that started in 2023 are looking to develop hydrogen-fired high-temperature furnaces,and in the United States an al

279、uminium casting and rolling facility is planning to test hydrogen firing.Transport Road transport The use of hydrogen as a means of decarbonising9 road transport continues to expand,increasing more quickly in 2023(by around 55%)than in 2022(around 40%)10 due,in particular,to growth in heavy fuel cel

280、l trucks and buses in China.In spite of this,hydrogen demand in road transport reached just 60 kt in 2023(less than 0.1%of global demand).9 For decarbonisation,the hydrogen used must be low-emissions,although today hydrogen demand in transport is met with a variety of sources,including unabated foss

281、il fuels.10 The estimate of year-on-year hydrogen demand growth shown in the GHR 2023(45%)has been revised due to adjustments to historic values for average fuel efficiency and mileage.Global Hydrogen Review 2024 Chapter 2.Hydrogen demand PAGE|38 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Figure 2.8 Hydrogen consumption in roa

282、d transport by vehicle segment and region,2021-2023 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Notes:RoW=Rest of World;US=United States.Commercial vehicles include light commercial vehicles and medium-and heavy-duty trucks.Assumptions on annual mileage and fuel economy come from the IEA Global Energy and Climate Model.Hydrogen

283、use in road transport increased by around 55%in 2023,with heavy-duty vehicles accounting for almost 85%of this growth.In China,fuel cell electric vehicle(FCEV)deployment has focused on heavy-duty vehicles,which have relatively high mileages,meaning that in 2023,consumption of hydrogen for road trans

284、port grew almost twice as fast as in the United States,and over three times as fast as in Europe.In Korea and Japan,the light-duty vehicle segment continues to be a focus for FCEVs,although growth in this segment is slowing down,and hydrogen use in road transport in these countries reached only arou

285、nd 7 kt combined in 2023.Growth in fuel cell passenger car stock slowed significantly in the past year,falling from more than 35%in 2022 to just under 15%in 2023,with slow sales continuing into the first half of 2024.In contrast,healthier sales in fuel cell buses and trucks increased the stock by 25

286、%and more than 50%,respectively,between 2022 and 2023.The total stock of FCEVs across all road modes,as of the end of June 2024,stands at around 93 000.11 11 For comparison,there were over 40 million battery electric and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles(excluding two-and three-wheelers)at the end of

287、 2023,as described in the Global Electric Vehicle Outlook 2024.10203040506070202120222023ktpa HCarsBusesCommercial vehicles202120222023ChinaKoreaUSEuropeJapanRoWGlobal Hydrogen Review 2024 Chapter 2.Hydrogen demand PAGE|39 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Figure 2.9 Fuel cell electric vehicle stock by segment and reg

288、ion,2019-2024 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Notes:RoW=Rest of World;US=United States.Commercial vehicles include light commercial vehicles(LCV),medium freight trucks and heavy freight trucks.Includes data until June 2024.Sources:IEA analysis based on data from Advanced Fuel Cells Technology Collaboration Programme;

289、Hydrogen Fuel Cell Partnership;Korea,Ministry of Land,Infrastructure,and Transport;International Partnership for Hydrogen and Fuel Cells in the Economy;and Clean Energy Ministerial Hydrogen Initiative country surveys.Growth in FCEVs was strongest in the truck segment for the second year in a row.Car

290、s and vans Korea,the United States12 and Japan continue to lead deployment of fuel cell cars,with over 50%,more than 25%,and over 10%,respectively,of the global stock.However,sales have slowed across all regions,and global stock increased by just 15%between 2022 and 2023,13 and by less than 5%from t

291、he end of 2023 to June 2024.Despite this slowdown,Honda have released a fuel cell version of their best-selling CR-V in California,competing with the Toyota Mirai and Hyundai Nexo.In China,sales of passenger cars are increasing,with sales of the Maxus Euniq 7 and Hongqi H5 reaching over 500 and 150

292、units,respectively,though China remains unusual in that the car segment makes up the smallest share of the hydrogen fleet.BMW has been piloting their fuel cell car prototype in Japan,the United States and Europe,and is planning to begin mass producing fuel cell cars in 2028.The taxi business continu

293、es to be an interesting use case,given the advantages of faster refuelling and longer ranges compared to battery electric vehicles,with the French FCEV taxi operator Hype expanding into Brussels.These advantages are also seen as having strong potential for decarbonising the delivery business.Interes

294、t from original equipment manufacturers(OEMs)in the van segment was also seen with Stellantis reaffirming their commitment to produce fuel cell vans in 12 Fuel cell electric vehicles in the United States are concentrated in the state of California.13 For comparison,the stock of electric cars and van

295、s increased by around 50%from 2022 to 2023.10203040506070809010020192020202120222023 Jun-24Thousand vehiclesCarsTrucksBusesVans20192020202120222023Jun-24KoreaChinaUSJapanEuropeRoWGlobal Hydrogen Review 2024 Chapter 2.Hydrogen demand PAGE|40 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Europe,while Sweden is now offering subsidie

296、s for fuel cell vans.The number of fuel cell vans on Chinese roads is over four times that of cars,and accounts for over 90%of the global total,further demonstrating the focus on commercial vehicles.Nevertheless,fuel cell vans made up less than 0.5%of the combined sales and just 0.2%of the combined

297、stock of plug-in hybrid,battery electric,and fuel cell vans globally in 2023.Trucks Trucks are the fastest-growing sector for fuel cell vehicles,with the stock increasing by over 50%in 2023,more than twice as fast as buses,and three times faster than cars.As of June 2024,the global stock stands at m

298、ore than 12 000,but as in 2022 around 95%of these are in China.Nevertheless,this should not hide the substantial growth seen in both the United States and Europe,albeit from a lower base.By the end of 2022 there were around 135 fuel cell trucks in Europe,but that had increased to around 350 as of Ju

299、ne 2024.In the United States,over the same period,fuel cell trucks increased from just 10 to around 170.The share of trucks in the global FCEV fleet has therefore risen from less than 9%in 2021 to almost 13%as of June 2024.Commercial trials to prove the technology and gather data on performance in d

300、ifferent use cases are being undertaken around the world,including in the United Kingdom,New Zealand and Saudi Arabia.There have also been new commitments to the technology in the United States,for example through orders for Nikolas fuel cell truck,which officially entered the market last year,with

301、35 units delivered in 2023.An order has been placed for a further 100 trucks in 2025,contributing to the growing hydrogen hub at the Port of Los Angeles,as well as another 50 trucks ordered by a haulier that deemed battery electric trucks insufficient for their needs after an almost 2-year-long tria

302、l.Despite this positive news,Nikola still faces considerable headwinds,having incurred losses of almost USD 1 billion in 2023.Another fuel cell truck maker from the United States,Hyzon,have halted their operations in Europe and Australia,in part due to having accumulated losses of over USD 275 milli

303、on.This decision can,at least in part,be attributed to lower-than-expected demand following the cancellation of purchase announcements,such as by Glasgow City Council(United Kingdom).Innovations to fuel cell trucking are still being made,such as through a hydrogen-electric hybrid system in which the

304、 fuel cell acts as a range extender,thereby making the powertrain technology suitable for a larger share of duty cycles.Elsewhere,Daimler and Linde have jointly developed a novel liquefied hydrogen refuelling process aimed at providing ranges of more than 1 000 km,14 which is now being deployed in G

305、ermany.The two companies also aim to support the 14 The average range of fuel cell heavy-duty trucks in the Global Drive to Zero ZETI tool database is around 600 km.Global Hydrogen Review 2024 Chapter 2.Hydrogen demand PAGE|41 I EA.CC BY 4.0.establishment of a common refuelling standard for liquid r

306、efuelling,to enable commercial use of the technology.The use of hydrogen combustion engines in trucks may also support emissions reductions compared to conventional diesel trucks.MAN is due to launch such trucks in 2025,and Volvo Trucks will begin testing in 2026.This technology may have a particula

307、r role to play in the medium term,while fuel cells continue to face challenges such as high costs,lower durability in difficult operating conditions,15 and uncertainty around the availability of skilled technicians and spare parts.Model availability is an important factor in increasing deployment of

308、 fuel cell trucks,particularly in the short to medium term,so as to offer customers choice and options suited to their needs,and model options are expanding around the world(Figure 2.10).However,given that China has the highest sales of trucks,but a smaller number of models available than North Amer

309、ica,it is also clear that policy and not just model availability is influencing uptake.Europe has fewer models available than North America or China,though new additions are being announced,such as by Symbio(expected in late 2024).Partnerships between Honda and Isuzu,and Quantron and Ford,are also e

310、xpected to add to model availability in the coming years.Retrofitting of existing trucks,where the diesel engine is replaced with an electric fuel cell powertrain,can also increase vehicle availability.H2X Global,who specialise in retrofitting,have announced the development of both a smaller 3.5 t t

311、ruck as well as trucks in the range of 16 t to 44 t in 2024.15 Internal combustion engines are more tolerant of environmental contaminants such as dust,can operate with lower fuel purity,and withstand operational vibration better than the fuel cell powertrains currently available.Global Hydrogen Rev

312、iew 2024 Chapter 2.Hydrogen demand PAGE|42 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Figure 2.10 Fuel cell electric vehicle models by original equipment manufacturer headquarters,type of vehicle,and release date,2022-2024 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Notes:MD=medium-duty;HD=heavy-duty.This figure is based on a continuously updated inventory

313、 and may not be fully comprehensive due to new model announcements and small manufacturers not yet captured in the database.Values for 2022 include models released between 2016 and 2022 inclusive.The database contains coaches,school buses,shuttle buses,and transit buses,categorised here as“Bus”,whic

314、h refers to those with more than 25 seats.“MD truck”includes medium-duty(MD)trucks,MD step vans,and cargo vans with a gross vehicle weight(GVW)of greater than 3.5 t but less than 15 t.“HD truck”includes all freight trucks with a GVW of greater than 15 t.“Specialised truck”includes garbage trucks,con

315、crete mixers,and other specialised mobile commercial trucks.Buses with 25 seats or fewer and light commercial vehicles,which have a GVW of less than 3.5 t,are excluded from this analysis.Vehicles of the same model that appear more than once in the database,but with small variations in specifications

316、,such as power,payload or seating,are counted as one model.Source:IEA analysis based on the Global Drive to Zero ZETI tool database.North American producers offer the widest range of trucks,while Chinese manufacturers lead in the bus sector,with Europe lagging behind in terms of heavy-duty fuel cell

317、 vehicle offering.Buses Fuel cell bus stock increased by almost 25%in 2023 compared to 2022.China again accounted for the majority of new additions,deploying over 75%of the more than 1 500 fuel cell buses added in 2023,thereby constituting a similar share of the global stock of more than 9 100 fuel

318、cell buses as of June 2024.In terms of year-on-year stock growth,Europe and Japan have similar rates to China,between 20%and 25%,while Korea experienced an annual growth rate of 130%.Similarly to trucks,fuel cell buses continue to be trialled,often alongside battery electric models.Many European cit

319、ies have taken delivery of or placed orders for fuel cell buses,such as Barcelona(Spain),Bologna(Italy),Cottbus and Oberberg(Germany),Paris(France)and Wabrzych(Poland).Several German cities that already have fuel cell buses in operation,such as Frankfurt and Cologne,among others,have opted to expand

320、 their fleets.In Duisburg(Germany),a previous 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35202220232024202220232024202220232024202220232024ChinaNorth AmericaEuropeRest of worldNumber of fuel cell models availableBusMD truckHD truckSpecialised truckGlobal Hydrogen Review 2024 Chapter 2.Hydrogen demand PAGE|43 I EA.CC BY 4.0

321、.decision to use battery electric was reversed in favour of fuel cell buses,with cost being cited as a deciding factor.The city of Cheonan,Korea,will deploy 350 fuel cell buses and the necessary refuelling infrastructure by 2027,through a partnership with SK E&S,expanding on the Incheon fleet announ

322、ced last year.Both will be supplied by SK E&Ss plant which liquefies by-product hydrogen for use in transport.However,there have also been several high-profile incidences of cities ending trials or retiring existing fleets,citing issues of reliability and cost.Examples include Montpellier and Pau in

323、 France,Carinthia in Austria,and Wiesbaden in Germany.Key to the increasing sales of fuel cell buses is sufficient availability.In Europe,companies such as Solaris and Wrightbus are expanding production.In Korea,Hyundai has expanded its capacity from 500 to 3 000 units per year in order to keep pace

324、 with deployment.In North America,NFI Group are signing fuel cell supply agreements to capitalise on emerging demand.However,by far the largest range of models(and variations thereof)are being produced by a relatively small number of Chinese OEMs,in order to supply both their large domestic market a

325、nd growing overseas markets,such as Australia.Hydrogen retrofits also have a role to play,as demonstrated by Green Corp,who are installing their technology in 50 coaches in France,in a segment often deemed difficult to electrify.Finally,the continued introduction of hydrogen range extenders for buse

326、s can enable the decarbonisation of routes currently deemed unsuitable for battery electric buses,and demonstrates the potential to combine the two technologies.Hydrogen refuelling stations There are now close to 1 200 hydrogen refuelling stations(HRS)16 in operation globally,but the overall total g

327、rew only marginally in the past year,as the number of new HRS being opened was partially offset by station closures around the world(see Box 2.3),and older HRS were upgraded or replaced(Figure 2.11).As in 2022,China had the largest number of stations in 2023,at over 400,followed by Europe,with 280,K

328、orea at 180,and Japan with over 170.This pattern is reflected by stock growth from 2022 to date,with China adding more than 100 new stations,followed by Europe with over 45 additions and almost 60 in Korea.Over the past few years the stock of operating HRS in Japan has remained relatively constant a

329、nd the country is now providing subsidies for the maintenance of ageing HRS,to continue to meet customer expectations.Korea has provided large subsidies to existing station owners to deal with the increasing cost of hydrogen in the country.In the United States,there were around 90 HRS in June 2024,b

330、ut stock fell as 16 As of June 2024.This includes only HRS for road mobility applications and excludes refuelling points for non-road applications,such as forklifts.There is higher level of uncertainty around HRS stock and additions in 2024 than in previous years due to the number of closures and di

331、fferences in when various sources publish their figures.Global Hydrogen Review 2024 Chapter 2.Hydrogen demand PAGE|44 I EA.CC BY 4.0.low as 55 in 2023,with many stations being closed or temporarily out of service,although some new stations were added.In the majority of the regions examined(see Figur

332、e 2.11)the ratio of FCEVs to HRS has remained steady in recent years.During periods of relatively high vehicle sales Korea has maintained a ratio of less than around 200 vehicles per HRS,in particular thanks to building around 50 HRS in 2022.The United States is a notable exception,where a number of

333、 station closures in California(where FCEV stock is concentrated)led to significant issues for customers in 2023,though many of these stations have since reopened or been replaced,as explored in Box 2.3.Figure 2.11 Hydrogen refuelling stations by region and ratio of fuel cell electric vehicles to refuelling stations,2020-2024 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Notes:FCEV=fuel cell electric vehicle;RoW=rest of world.Th