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1、Megatrend 3Environment&ResourcesTrend Compendium 20502024 EditionThe Roland Berger Trend Compendium 2050 focuses on stable,long-term developments The Roland Berger Trend Compendium 2050 is a global trend study compiled by Roland Berger Institute(RBI),the think tank of Roland Berger.Our Trend Compend

2、ium 2050 describes the most important megatrends shaping the world between now and 2050 Our trend views are based on most recent studies,data and analyses.We critically examine the results for relevance,plausibility and reliability We deliberately use publicly available sources to make our analyses

3、verifiable To incorporate todays uncertainties into strategic planning,we recommend combining the megatrends of the Roland Berger Trend Compendium 2050 with the Roland Berger scenario planning approach2050Is it worth dealing with megatrends when globally impactful events such as the COVID-19 pandemi

4、c or the war in Ukraine are taking place?Of course!The coronavirus pandemic and the war in Ukraine have far-reaching consequences and deeply affect people,economies,and politics but neither event has derailed the megatrends analyzed herein such is the inherent nature of megatrends:climate change,soc

5、ietal aging,or technological innovations do not lose their momentum,their direction,or their importance.To cope with such challenges and to master resulting opportunities,our awareness and our understanding of megatrends is vital not least to develop sustainable answers.2Roland Berger|and covers six

6、 megatrends that shape the future development of our world to 20501People&Society2Politics&Governance3Environment&Resources4Economics&Business5Technology&Innovation6Health&CarePopulationGlobal RisksClimate Change&PollutionGlobal Trade&Value ChainsValue of InnovationGlobal Health ChallengesMigrationG

7、eopoliticsBiodiversityPower Shifts Frontier TechnologiesHealthcare of the FutureEducation&LaborFuture of DemocracyWaterEnergy TransformationHumans&MachinesCaregiving3Roland Berger|ValuesDebt ChallengeResources&Raw Materials4Environment&ResourcesAccelerating the mitigation of global climate change ef

8、fects is a must In the future,biodiversity,water,and resources&raw materials face critical issues2Bio-diversity1Climate Change&PollutionSubtrends of megatrend Environment&Resources3Water3.1Climate Change&PollutionBio-diversity3.2Water3.34Resources&Raw MaterialsResources&Raw Materials3.45To address t

9、he climate change challenge,it is necessaryto recognizethat humans have added a critical layer to the natural greenhouse effectSource:NOAA/Climate.gov;NRDC;Real Climate;Niwa;Roland BergerIllustration of the natural and anthropogenic greenhouse effect The greenhouse effect is a process that heats the

10、 Earths surface.When solar radiation reaches the Earth,some of it is re-radiated into space,while some is trapped by greenhouse gases in the atmosphere,warming the Earth The natural greenhouse effect,caused by water vapor and natural levels of carbon dioxide(CO2),methane,nitrous oxide,and ozone in t

11、he atmosphere,keeps the Earths temperature about 33 C warmer than otherwise(15 C average surface temperature instead of-18 C).Water vapor accounts for 36-85%of the overall greenhouse effect,depending on sky and regional conditions Human activities particularly activities such as the burning of fossi

12、l fuels(coal,oil,natural gas),agriculture,and land clearing at scale are increasing the concentration of greenhouse gases,in particular CO2,methane,and nitrous oxide.This is the anthropogenic greenhouse effect,causing an additional warming of the Earth of 1.35 C(2023)above the pre-industrial average

13、 Compared to the natural greenhouse effect,the anthropogenic greenhouse effect looks small.But it appeared very fast,so that Earths natural systems(e.g.ecosystems,ocean currents,jet stream,etc.)and civilization could not adapt at the same rateNatural greenhouse effect Natural+anthropogenic greenhous

14、e effect Re-radiated heat escaping into spaceLess re-radiated heat escaping into spaceAtmosphere incl.additional GHGsAtmosphere+33 C+33 CWarming caused by greenhouse effectsMore heat trapped by natural+anthropogenic greenhouse gasesSolar radiationHeat trapped by natural greenhouse gases+1.35 Cin 202

15、3 compared to the pre-industrial average(1850-1900)(+1.18 C in 2023 compared to the 20th-century average)Environment&Resources3.1Climate Change&PollutionBio-diversity3.2Water3.3Resources&Raw Materials3.462803003203403603804004204401880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

16、 2020CO2 levels and global temperatures have risen over the last century,with both trends persisting into this centuryCO2/Temperature increase nexusCO2 concentration in the atmosphere left scale,ppm and global temperature anomalies compared to the average global temperature in the 20th century right

17、 scale,C-0.6-0.4-0.20.00.20.40.60.81.01.2TemperatureCO2 concentration Since the 1880s,carbon dioxide(CO2)concen-tration in the atmosphere has increased significantly,rising even more rapidly within the past 60 years.Today,it is well above 400 parts per million(ppm)In parallel to the rise in CO2 conc

18、entration,the global average temperature increased by 1.18 C above the 20th century average(2023),which is 1.35 C above pre-industrial levels Globally,the ten most recent years(2014-2023)were the warmest on record,herein 2023 was the warmest May 2024 was the twelfth month in a row that was the warme

19、st for the respective month of the year.The average global temperature in the 12-month period between June 2023 and May 2024 exceeded pre-industrial levels by 1.63 C The graph only shows CO2 concentration.Other greenhouse gases(GHG)also contribute to the greenhouse effect and human-induced climate c

20、hange:besides CO2,methane(CH4)and nitrous oxide(N2O)also play an important role CO2s lifetime cannot be represented with a single value as some of the excess CO2 is absorbed quickly(e.g.by the ocean surface)while some will remain in the atmosphere for thousands of years;methane lasts about 12 years

21、and nitrous oxide around 109 yearsSource:NOAA;Climate Action Tracker;NASA;EU EEA;EPA;IPCC;Roland BergerEnvironment&Resources3.1Climate Change&PollutionBio-diversity3.2Water3.3Resources&Raw Materials3.47CO2 concentration the main GHG contributor has reached its highest level on record at an accelerat

22、ed rate 150200250300350400450800,000 BCE600,000 BCE400,000 BCE200,000 BCE2023Long-term atmospheric concentration of CO ppm The current concentration levels of CO2 in the atmosphere are the highest for at least 800,000 years.Such long-term trends in CO concentration can be measured through means of p

23、reserved air samples from ice cores Historic peak and trough cycles of CO2 con-centrations comprise intervals of ice ages(lower CO2 concentration)and warmer interglacial periods(higher CO2 concentration).During these cycles,CO2 concentrations did not exceed 300 ppm in the last 800,000 years but they

24、 are well above 400 ppm today Even if the global community achieves a decrease in carbon emissions,this will not have an immediate impact on lowering atmospheric concentrations because CO2 remains in the atmosphere for a long time until it is removed by natural processes,such as absorption through l

25、and vegetation,soils,and the ocean acting as so-called natural carbon sinks Natural absorption processes last from less than five years to thousands of years.Thus,even if CO2 emissions were completely stopped today,we would still be faced with higher CO2 concentrations for several hundred yearsSourc

26、e:Our World in Data;NOAA;SIO;Roland BergerEnvironment&Resources3.1Climate Change&PollutionBio-diversity3.2Water3.3Resources&Raw Materials3.48Climate change is a complex topic Analysis of human-made effects date back to the late 19thcenturyBackground information and frequently asked questions on clim

27、ate changeSource:NOAA;Roland BergerHow is the global temperature measured?If carbon dioxide hits a new high every year,why isnt every year hotter than the last?If the globe is still warming,then why are some locations not warming while others have experienced cooling?How do we know the build-up of c

28、arbon dioxide in the atmosphere is caused by humans?When was anthropogenic global warming mentioned the first time?Scientists measure global temperature by combining sea surface and land surface air temperatures,calculating temperature anomalies relative to a standard period.This method accounts for

29、 daily and seasonal variations across different regions,providing a consistent way to track Earths climate trendsEarths temperature doesnt rise instantly with each increase in carbon dioxide due to the oceans ability to absorb and store heat,causing a lag in warming.Over time,the correlation between

30、 higher CO2 and temperature is evident,but year-to-year variations occur due to natural climate patterns like El Nio and La Nia,volcanic activity,solar variability,and other factorsGlobal warming means an increase in Earths overall average temperature over extended periods,yet this warming is not ev

31、enly distributed.Variations in regional factors such as sunlight exposure,cloud cover,atmospheric circulation,and land surface characteristics can lead to some areas not warming or even experiencing cooling,despite the general upward trend in global temperatures.According to the latest data,Europe i

32、s the fastest warming continent in the worldThe surge in atmospheric CO2 levels is consistent with human activity,especially the burning of fossil fuels.The high and quick increase of atmospheric CO2 levels far exceeds natural rates.In addition,CO2 stemming from the burning of fossil fuels has a cha

33、racteristic isotopic fingerprint which can be detected in todays atmosphereIn 1896,Swedish chemist Svante Arrhenius estimated the extent to which increases in atmospheric CO2 are responsible for the Earths increasing surface temperature through natural as well as human-made greenhouse effects.In 197

34、5,geochemist Wallace Broker coined the term global warming.In 1988,NASA scientist James E.Hansen reported a clear cause and effect between excess CO2 and global warming.In the same year,the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)was formed to collect and evaluate evidence on climate changeEn

35、vironment&Resources3.1Climate Change&PollutionBio-diversity3.2Water3.3Resources&Raw Materials3.49CO2 leads GHG emissions,comprising nearly 75%in 2022 Sector breakdown highlights critical areas for emission reductionsGlobal GHG emissions 2022:57.4 Gt CO2eSector breakdown of global greenhouse gas emis

36、sions 20223)%Composition of global green-house gas emissions 20221)%CO22)73.8%Energy supply,combustionemissions25.8%Industry25.1%Agriculture andLULUCF CO217.9%Transport14.1%Energy supply,fuel production10.6%Buildings6.6%To make emissions from greenhouse gases(GHG)like CO2,methane(CH4),nitrous oxide(

37、N2O)and fluorinated gases comparable,scientists evaluate the Global Warming Potential(GWP),measuring the contribution to global warming of a specific mass of a GHG relative to the same mass of CO2 Over 100 years,the GWP of methane and nitrous oxide are nearly 30 and 273 times higher,respectively,tha

38、n the GWP of CO2 Due to the sheer mass of its emissions CO2 contributes nearly 3/4 to GHG emissions measured in CO2 equivalents(CO2e),followed by methane,nitrous oxide and fluorinated gases Energy supply(combustion emissions in the power sector and emissions from fossil fuel production)and industria

39、l combustion and processes are responsible for more than 60%of all GHG emissions.Some industries,like steel and cement producers,emit high amounts of CO2 Agriculture and land-use,land-use change(e.g.deforestation for farmland)and forestry,transport and buildings together emit almost 40%of GHGs The s

40、ector breakdown shows where the biggest levers are to decrease GHG emissions1)According to their Global Warming Potential;2)The bigger part(67.0%of total GHG emissions)of CO2 emissions is from burning fossil fuels;the smaller part(6.7%of total GHG emissions)stems from land use,land-use change,and fo

41、restry(LULUCF GHG emissions);3)Sum is 100.1%due to roundingsSource:UNEP;European Commission;Roland BergerGlobal greenhouse gas emissionsEnvironment&Resources3.1Climate Change&PollutionBio-diversity3.2Water3.3Resources&Raw Materials3.4N2O(nitrous oxide)4.6%Fluorinated gases2.8%CH4(methane)18.8%10Comp

42、aring GHG emissions reveals national disparities and high carbon efficiency pathways for reducing emissionsRussiaUSChinaEU27WorldIndia18.017.911.08.16.82.8 According to the most recent data(2022)China is by far the biggest emitter of GHGs,followed by the US,India,EU27 and Russia.These economies acco

43、unt for 59%of all GHG emissions globally,showing their big lever for emission reductions The US and Europes(notably including the UK)historical CO2 emissions exceed those of China and other emerging and developing nations,underscoring debates on climate responsibility and the need for equitable trea

44、tment in global climate policies that reconcile past and present contributions The current per capita emissions reflect significant disparities,with Russia and the US registering high per capita emissions indicative of energy-intensive economies.In stark contrast,Indias per capita emissions are quit

45、e low,pointing to its developmental stage and population size The EU27 figures suggest a balance between industrial activity and energy efficiency.These variances emphasize the challenge of equitably addressing climate change,respecting each nations development pathway,and emission reduction potenti

46、al Emissions in relation to GDP show significant disparities as well,with the EU27 establishing high carbon efficiency at 0.18 t CO2e per GDP unit,while Russia and China exhibit less efficiency,indicating room for economic greeningPer capita emissions of GHG 2022 t CO2e/capita Per GDP emissions of G

47、HG 2022t CO2e/(USD GDP)RussiaChinaWorldIndiaUSEU270.640.610.390.390.280.18Share of GHG emissions1)%Cumulative share of CO2 emissions2)%China29%US11%India7%EU277%Russia5%Others41%US24%EU2717%China15%Russia7%India3%Canada2%Others24%202217502022GHG emissionsJapan4%UK4%Environment&Resources3.1Climate Ch

48、ange&PollutionBio-diversity3.2Water3.3Resources&Raw Materials3.41)GHG emissions from all anthropogenic activities except land use,land-use change,forestry and large-scale biomass burning;2)Historically,only data from CO2 emissions are availableSource:European commission;Global Carbon Budget(2023)wit

49、h major processing by Our World in Data;Roland Berger111,000 of the most CO2-intensive assets are responsible for nearly 20%of all global CO2 emissions A concrete lever for actionIndustries54%China20%Rest of World13%India10%US3%EuropeRegions In 2021,the 1,000 most CO2-intensive assets emitted 19.5%o

50、f all CO2 emissions worldwide Roland Bergers Global Carbon Restructuring Plan(GCRP)outlines the pathway for owners of the worlds major carbon emitters to enact substantial climate protection measures Power-related facilities,notably coal-based power plants,emerge as the primary culprits,emitting app

51、roximately 0.9 tons of CO2 per megawatt hour(MWh),double the emissions of gas-fueled power plants,highlighting the power sectors urgency of transitioning away from fossil fuels 54%of the 1,000 assets are in China,13%stem from India,10%from the US,only 3%from Europe Ownership of major carbon emitters

52、 is concentrated among a select group of companies,with 40 companies responsible for half of the emissions analyzed in the GCRP study Nearly half of these 40 companies are based in China(48%),with a fifth coming from the Rest of the World.The US,India,and Europe each account for just under 10%8.233.

53、81,000 most CO2-intensive assetsOther assetsTotal42.0 77%Power18%Iron&Steel4%Oil&gas1%Cement 1.5 C-2 C2-4 C4 CGlobal warming thresholds:Arctic winter sea iceCollapseEnvironment&Resources3.1Climate Change&PollutionBio-diversity3.2Water3.3Resources&Raw Materials3.418Is it worth undertaking the highest

54、 efforts to limit the temperature increase?There is a clear difference between the impact of a 1.5 C or a 2 C increaseScenarios:1.5 C global warming;2.0 C global warmingSpecies6%of insects,8%of plants and 4%of vertebrates will be affected18%of insects,16%of plants and 8%of vertebrates will be affect

55、edClimate riskExtreme weather events100%increase in flood risk170%increase in flood riskCoral bleaching1.5 C:70%of the worlds coral reefs are lost by 21002 C:Virtually all coral reefs are lost by 2100Water availability350 million city dwellers are exposed to severe drought by 2100140 million urban r

56、esidents are exposed to severe drought by 2100CostsLower economic growth at 2 C than at 1.5 C for many countries,esp.low-income countriesFoodEvery half degree of warming will steadily lead to lower yields and lower nutritional content in tropical regionsOceansLower risks to marine biodiversity,ecosy

57、stems and their ecological functions and services at 1.5 C compared to 2CPeople9%of the worlds population or 700 million people will be exposed to extreme heat waves at least once every 20 years28%of the worlds population or 2 billion people will be exposed to extreme heat waves at least once every

58、20 yearsArctic sea iceIce free summers in the Arctic at least once every 100 yearsIce free summers in the Arctic at least once every 10 yearsSea level rise10 cm higher at 2 C than at 1.5 C in 2100.This difference would expose up to 10 million more people to risksClimate risks:Impact of 1.5 C versus

59、2.0 C of global warmingSource:WWF;Roland BergerEnvironment&Resources3.1Climate Change&PollutionBio-diversity3.2Water3.3Resources&Raw Materials3.419If the temperature increase exceeds 2 C,cities will be faced with tough,new climate conditions Under the IPCC scenario RCP 4.5 it is more likely than not

60、 that global warming exceeds 2 C RCP 4.5 is one of two intermediate scenarios,i.e.between a stringent mitigation scenario(RCP 2.6)and a scenario with very high emissions(RCP 8.5)In RCP 4.5,CO2 emissions will peak around 2040 and then decline.In 2100,it will reach about 50%of 2050 levels.Methane(CH4)

61、emissions will stop increasing by 2050 It is expected that many plant and animal species will be unable to adapt to the effects of RCP 4.5Global impact on major cities(more than 1 m inhabitants)in 205077%Share of major cities being faced with striking shifts in their climate,e.g.in 2050Madrid will h

62、ave the climate of MarrakechLondon will have the climate of BarcelonaSan Francisco will have the climate of LisbonExample of climate extremes:Annual precipitation decrease mm and temperature increase C until 2050 in selected Asian cities22%Share of major cities shifting to a climate regime that does

63、 not currently exist on Earth1)Impact on cities,if global temperature increases above 2 C by 2100 1)The 22%are included in the 77%;2)In warmest month of the yearSource:Bastin et al;IPCC;Roland Berger5,93,93,12,21,31,76,26,14,1RangoonManilaJakartaHiroshimaTaipeiMacauTehranTashkentJaipur-162-155-196-2

64、68-178-111-17-4-5Annual precipitation decrease mmAverage temperature increase2)CHotter and drier climateDrier climateHotter climateEnvironment&Resources3.1Climate Change&PollutionBio-diversity3.2Water3.3Resources&Raw Materials3.420Mitigating climate change requires switching energy supply to renewab

65、les,electrification,increasing energy efficiency,and GHG capture/use/storage Energy supply Processes in industry,services,agriculture,other business sectors Transport Buildings Private households Four methods help to combat climate change:increased use of renewables,electrification of end-use-sector

66、s,higher energy efficiency,and greenhouse gas(GHG)capturing,usage and storage all lower the impact of GHG emissions Renewable forms of energy need to replace fossil-fuel based energy production.Sites can be central(e.g.hydro power,concentrated solar power or PV power plants)or decentral(like PV or s

67、olar thermal on rooftops)Electrification of end-use-sectors,e.g.by switching to electric vehicles or heat pumps,is a crucial measure to reduce the use of fossil fuels.To be carbon neutral,the power needs to be produced by renewables Increasing energy efficiency is necessary wherever energy is produc

68、ed and used.As outlined,power plants and certain industrial processes hold great reduction potential-but other sectors also need to improve their energy efficiency GHG capturing,usage and storage is needed whilst energy production and industrial processes emit GHGs Applying all four approaches in ta

69、ndem boosts overall effectiveness However,all four methods carry associated costs and require energy(e.g.for the production and installation of PV panels).Technological progress and scaling can lower costs as well as energy inputs In a system with emission certificates the certificate price will be

70、a crucial factor in the cost-benefit comparison of the four methods Hydro power Photovoltaics Concentrated solar power Solar thermal Wind power Bioenergy Geothermal energy(Nuclear energy)Renewable energy GHG capturing:industrial sources,direct air capturing GHG usage:e.g.fertilizers,oil recovery,syn

71、thetic fuels,chemicals,building aggregates GHG storage:e.g.in exhausted oil or gas fields,in saline formations,in unmineable coal seamsGreenhouse gas(GHG)capturing,usage and storageEnergy efficiencySource:IEA;Roland BergerReduce greenhouse gas emissions Buildings heating Industry,services,agricultur

72、e,other business sectors TransportElectrificationMethods to reduce greenhouse gas emissionsEnvironment&Resources3.1Climate Change&PollutionBio-diversity3.2Water3.3Resources&Raw Materials3.421Renewable energy sources are essential for the energy transition Fossil fuels emit up to 150 times more CO2e

73、than renewables15,1867,52410,9205452021Coal,peat,&shale oilNatural gasOilBiofuels&waste34,17537013014123714115630300Hard coalNatural gasWind,off-shoreWind,on-shoreSolar,rooftop,poly-SiSolar,rooftop,CIGS2)Hydro-powerNuclear1,000430801712117145202202050RenewablesTraditional use of biomassNuclearFossil

74、 fuels100100GHG mitigation potential of shifting to renewablesFossil fuels such as coal,peat,shale oil,oil and natural gas still are the main sources of energy and emit vast amounts of CO2 compared to renewablesRenewable energy sources such as solar,wind,hydropower,biofuels,and similar alternatives

75、play a pivotal role in reducing GHG emissionsRenewables produce up to 150 times less CO2e per kWh than fossil fuels-a promising alternative supporting energy transition ambitions of the international communityTo reach net zero emissions by 2050 the share of renewables of total energy supply must inc

76、rease from 11%in 2022 to 71%by 2050 While renewable electricity generation is already advanced,renewable energy sources will have to play a bigger role in transportation and heating1)CCS:Carbon Capture and Storage;2)Copper Indium Gallium Diselenide solar cells;3)IEA Net Zero Emissions by 2050 scenar

77、ioSource:IEA;IRENA;UNECE;Roland BergerTotal global GHG emissions from fuel combustion per fuel Mt CO2eLifecycle GHG emissions per kWh by energy sourcegr.CO2e per kWhTotal global energy supply according to the NZE scenario3)%Environment&Resources3.1Climate Change&PollutionBio-diversity3.2Water3.3Reso

78、urces&Raw Materials3.4excl.CCS1)22Electrification of end-use sectors requires replacing the use of fossil fuels with renewables in all areas of applicationElectricity generationBuildings heatIndustry heatRoad transport67%13%20%86%9%3%90%97%201061%10%29%83%11%5%89%95%202061%14%25%58%25%12%71%6%16%8%8

79、1%12%203084%15%45%15%28%12%40%13%25%21%38%10%17%35%204088%12%53%10%30%8%43%9%38%11%38%10%17%35%2050 Electrification of end-use sectors is a key measure to become carbon neutral by 2050.Examples are electric vehicles instead of those with an internal combustion engine,heat pumps instead of natural-ga

80、s powered heating,and industrial machines powered by electricity instead of fossil fuels To be carbon neutral,the power needs to be produced by renewables.Thus,todays global energy mix needs to undergo drastic changes across various fields of applications On a global scale,renewable energy technolog

81、ies are pivotal to lowering emissions:Hydropower has been a leading low-emission energy source over many decades;the expansion of wind and solar power will triple renewable power generation by 2030 and provide an eightfold boost by 2050 in the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 roadmap Its accomplishment wi

82、ll require annual additions of wind and solar capacity to be five times higher between 2020 and 2050 than the average of the years 2018-2020 Energy use from renewables differs:Direct renewables guarantee a use of energy without the need to transformation into a further form of energy(e.g.biofuels fo

83、r road transport).The indirect use of renewables,however,requires the initial energy form to be transformed into another,as is the case in electric vehicles powered by renewablesOther low carbon1)Direct renewablesIndirect renewablesFuel shares in total energy use in selected applications in IEAs Net

84、 Zero Emissions by 2050 scenario%1)Other lowcarbon refers to nuclear power,facilities equipped with CCUS(carbon capture,usage&storage),and lowcarbon hydrogen and hydrogenbased fuelsSource:IEA;Roland BergerFossil fuels without CCUSEnvironment&Resources3.1Climate Change&PollutionBio-diversity3.2Water3

85、.3Resources&Raw Materials3.423 Energy efficiency is a key measure for curbing energy demand in IEAs Net Zero Emissions by 2050 scenario Collectively,energy efficiency,electrification,behavioral shifts,and digitalization contribute to shaping global energy intensity-the amount of energy needed to gen

86、erate a unit of GDP,a key measure of the economys energy efficiency Significant progress has been made in this area over the past 30 years.In 1990,7 MJ were needed to produce 1 USD of GDP globally.By 2020,this figure has decreased to 4.6 MJ.To reach the net zero target,this number needs to be reduce

87、d further,to just 3.1 MJ by 2030 Most efficiency initiatives yield cost savings for consumers,reducing energy expenses and mitigating the impacts of unexpected energy price surges,for example as witnessed following Russias invasion of Ukraine To achieve the ambitious 1.5 C Paris target,energy effici

88、ency needs to be increased in all areas such as households(e.g.by power-saving air conditioners or refrigerators),transportation(e.g.by reducing fuel consumption of vehicles),and industry(e.g.,by more efficient production processes)Energy efficiency provides some of the fastest and most cost-effecti

89、ve CO2 mitigation options,lowering energy bills and improving energy security2345678910199020002010202020307.04.63.73.1WorldStated policies scenarioNet zero emissions scenarioGlobal energy intensity measured in terms of primary energy and GDP MJ per 2017 USD PPP2021-projectionKey milestones in energ

90、y efficiency to achieve net zero10070-30%10060-40%10084-16%202220303.63.4-6%Unit electricity consumption of new air conditionersIndex,2022=100Unit electricity consumption of refrigerators Index,2022=100Fuel consumption of new trucks Index,2022=100Energy intensity of clinker production GJ/tEnergy eff

91、iciency requirementsSource:IEA;Roland BergerEnvironment&Resources3.1Climate Change&PollutionBio-diversity3.2Water3.3Resources&Raw Materials3.424Whilst greenhouse gases continue to be emitted,their removal from the atmosphere is vital Usage and storage options of GHGs differ widelySelected methods of

92、 CO2 removal from the atmosphereSource:IEA;Geomar;WEF;MIT;Roland BergerArtificial upwellingCarbon storage in the costal zoneAfforestation/reforestationAlkalinizationCO2 storage in sandstoneCarbon storageEnhanced weatheringCO2 fixation as carbonates in basaltic crustBioenergy with Carbon Capture and

93、Storage(BECCS)Enhanced weatheringDirect-Air-Capture and Carbon Storage(DACCS)Biochar Greenhouse gas capturing,usage and storage is a crucial method to fight climate change.In contrast to the increased use of renewables and a higher energy efficiency,the target here is not to reduce GHG emissions,but

94、 to lower their impact As CO2 has the highest share of GHG emissions,efforts focus on carbon(dioxide)capturing,usage and storage.It can be captured from industrial sources and then used or stored(CCUS,Carbon Capture,Usage and Storage)or be captured from the air and then stored(DACCS,Direct Air Captu

95、re and Carbon Storage)CO2 usage includes applications as enhanced oil recovery and the transformation into products like urea(for fertilizers),synthetic fuels,chemicals,and building aggregates Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage(BECCS)involves capturing and storing CO2 from processes where bio

96、mass is converted into fuels or directly burned to generate energy If not used,CO2 can be stored in different places underground Biochar carbon removal uses heating without oxygen(pyrolysis)to transform biomass into biochar which can store CO2 for extended periods Enhanced weathering is a method to

97、store CO2 in rock material and spread it out across extensive land areas,beaches or the sea surface Plants are natural CO2 stores.Afforestation/reforestation on land or at coastal zones contribute to the removal of CO2 from the atmosphere As the ocean is a major player in mitigating climate change a

98、bsorbing about 25%of human-made CO2 emissions-there are several options to enhance the binding of atmospheric CO2,e.g.the increasing of the alkalinity of seawater(e.g.by inserting rock powder)to enhance the oceans CO2 uptake from the atmosphere or artificially upwelling of deep,nutrient-rich water t

99、o increase the binding of atmospheric CO2 in algal biomassEnvironment&Resources3.1Climate Change&PollutionBio-diversity3.2Water3.3Resources&Raw Materials3.425Climate finance surges to USD 1.3 trillion in 2019/2020,yet a seven-fold increase by 2030 is crucial to align with Paris Agreement objectives

100、The Climate Policy Initiatives(CPI)Global Landscape of Climate Finance 2023 report synthesizes data from diverse scenarios to estimate the range of investments required to meet international climate goals As of 2021/2022,average annual climate finance has nearly doubled since 2019/2020,reaching arou

101、nd USD 1.3 trillion,with projections indicating a need to increase annual climate finance to USD 9 trillion by 2030 and over USD 10 trillion from 2031 to 2050 to meet the objectives of the Paris Agreement Climate finance is categorized into two main types:mitigation finance,which focuses on reducing

102、 emissions to slow climate change,and adaptation finance,aimed at helping communities cope with its effects.Mitigation finance is growing,particularly in renewable energy and transporta-tion.Adaptation finance though increasing-remains insufficient,with a heavy reliance on public funds and less priv

103、ate sector involvement The distribution of climate finance remains uneven,being heavily concentrated in certain geographies and sectors.There is a pressing need for strategic initiatives to leverage private finance in underfunded areas and to support climate-vulnerable and high-emission countries in

104、 their transition to low-carbon economiesGlobal tracked climate finance and estimated annual needs through 2050 USD bnSource:CPI;Roland BergerClimate financeRange of estimated needsNeeds in the average scenario13,00012,00010,00011,0009,0008,0007,0006,0005,0004,0003,0002,0001,0002011/122021/222030205

105、01,265012,0128,9765,9059,44110,76912,227Environment&Resources3.1Climate Change&PollutionBio-diversity3.2Water3.3Resources&Raw Materials3.426The cost of inaction would turn out to be much higher than the financing required to fight the impacts of climate change Source:CPI;Roland Berger The projected

106、social and economic costs of global warming will far exceed the costs of the transition.Meanwhile,the cost of inaction is mounting Increasing climate investments to the levels required by 2050(USD 266 trillion cumulatively),will result in a significant reduction in social and economic losses by 2100

107、:USD 1,266 trillion lower compared to a business-as-usual(BAU)scenario The estimated losses are based on direct economic impacts of increased(extreme)weather-related and other uninsurable damages,increased production costs,productivity losses,and health costs.Likely to be vastly under-estimated thes

108、e figures do not capture capital losses caused by stranded assets,losses of nature and biodiversity,or increased conflict and human migration While the data and methods for estimating future losses are still rudimentary,they paint a picture that illustrates the economic imperative to invest now,whil

109、e highlighting the immense opportunities for businesses to pursue increasingly low-carbon and climate resilient pathsCumulative climate finance needs vs losses 2025-2100 under 1.5 C and BAU scenarios USD trillion2661.5 C scenario(2025-2050)1.5 C scenario(2025-2100)BAU scenario(2025-2100)1,0621,2662,

110、328Climate finance needsLosses due to climate changeAvoided losses under a 1.5 C scenarioEnvironment&Resources3.1Climate Change&PollutionBio-diversity3.2Water3.3Resources&Raw Materials3.427Pollution,a significant environmental threat,contributes to approximately 8.3 million deaths globallyIndiaChina

111、NigeriaIndonesiaPakistanBangladeshUSRussiaEthiopiaBrazilRest of World2,3301,8702792332242081971191111102,61920152):90%of pollution related deaths occur in low-and middle-income countries20152):Premature deaths due to pollution account for almost 16%of all deaths worldwide20152):Pollution costs the g

112、lobal economy 6.2%of economic output Pollution is considered the worlds most ubiquitous environmental threat to human health but also to other living organisms Pollution takes on many forms and combinations,such as land and water pollution Certain types of pollution are more easily recognizable than

113、 others,depending on severity:Air pollution in urban areas can be seen as smog,yet rural areas can also suffer from bad air due to farming practices;light pollution can be seen from outer space;water pollution can manifest as debris swept up at coastal areas Some types,such as air or noise pollution

114、 can be measured by a handful of parameters,while others,such as water pollution,face an abundance of metrics,from a growing number of relatively novel pollutants such as microplastics or pharmaceutical products(hormones,antibiotics)Estimated number of premature pollution-related deaths per year,201

115、91)0001)Fatalities after exposure to toxic air,water,land,and chemical pollution;2)Most recent data availableSource:Global Alliance on Health&Pollution;Roland BergerEnvironment&Resources3.1Climate Change&PollutionBio-diversity3.2Water3.3Resources&Raw Materials3.428Pollutants harm the environment and

116、 the health of all living species Targeted reduction and mitigation efforts are vitalPollution reduction and mitigation approaches Ban(more)harmful pollutants Set tighter pollution limits across all types of pollution Implement emission-free/lower emission energy production and industrial processes

117、Switch to circularity approaches and durable,more sustainable products Inform and improve better land use,waste,and light management practicesSelected originsExamplesIndustry and household waste,mines,agri-culture,natural/chemical/nuclear catastrophes Vehicles,aviation,industrial/construction/mining

118、 activities,leisure pursuitsFuel combustion for energy production/transportation,heating,non-exhaust vehicle emissions,natural/chemical/nuclear catastrophes Industry and house-hold sewage,mines,vehicles&vessels,agricultural runoff,spillages,fracking,natural oil seeps,natural/nuclear/chemical catastr

119、ophes Public and private infrastructure,vehicles,industrial and leisure activitiesOld rocket stages,discarded satellites,lost equipment,collisions or orbit explosions caused by surface launched missiles or remaining energy sources like fuels or batteriesLiquid,solid or sludge waste(open dump or land

120、fill),microplastics in sewage sludge used as fertilizer,pesticides,herbicides,heavy metalsTraffic noise,flight paths,heavy machinery,music and video streaming,concertsFine dust,sulfur dioxide,carbon monoxide,nitrogen oxides,ozone,chemicals vapors,pollen,radioactive air pollutantsWaste(esp.plastics)a

121、nd sewage,bacteria,oil,chemicals,fertilizer,pesticides,herbicides,tire abrasions,metals,drugsOver-illumination of streets/places/build-ings/industrial plants and facilitiesHuman generated space junk such as pieces of spacecraft or defunct satellites,tiny flecks of paint of old spacecraft99 out of 10

122、0 people breathe air that exceeds WHO air pollution guidelines Air pollution is responsible for 1 in 8 deaths worldwideGlobally,33%of waste is still openly dumped and approx.40%goes to landfillsIn middle-and high-income countries,1 of 2 young people(aged 12-35 years)listen to unsafe levels of soundT

123、he Great Pacific Ocean Garbage Patch contains 1.8 trillion pieces of plastic in an area of 1.6 million km2 3x the size of France83%of the worlds population live under light-polluted skiesSpace debris is travelling at about 7 times the speed of a bullet,posing a massive threat to operating spacecraft

124、 and satellitesAir pollutionLand pollutionNoise pollutionLight pollutionWater pollutionSpace pollutionSource:LiveScience;WHO;WWF;Ocean Cleanup;World Bank;National Geographic;International Journal of Science and Research;NASA;ESA;Roland BergerEnvironment&Resources3.1Climate Change&PollutionBio-divers

125、ity3.2Water3.3Resources&Raw Materials3.429Air pollution is causing fewer deaths today than in 1990 However,economic costs remain significant Air pollution refers to the prevalence of chemicals or compounds in the air that are not normally present and that degrade air quality,or cause adverse changes

126、 in quality of life(e.g.damage to the ozone layer or global warming)Although air pollution is displaying an improvement in terms of steadily declining numbers of attributable deaths,air pollution still shortens lives more than any other external cause by 2.2 years(global average per person)Around 99

127、%of the worlds population breathe air that exceeds WHO guideline limits regarding selected air pollutants Total costs of air pollution on a global scale are estimated at around 3.3%of global GDP,accounting for disabilities from chronic diseases,asthma,preterm births,sick leaves,and deaths28128197503

128、2164106271411IndiaChinaBrazilGermanyUS-42%-62%-72%-72%-67%Age-standardized deaths/100,000 population attributable to air pollutionEconomic costs of air pollution as a share of GDP,2018%ChinaIndiaGermanyUSBrazil6.65.43.53.00.8Source:State of Global Air;CREA;WHO;Roland Berger19902019Environment&Resour

129、ces3.1Climate Change&PollutionBio-diversity3.2Water3.3Resources&Raw Materials3.430194,5173,377,650,46,23,03,10,880,157,226,622,62,21,50,70,3NigeriaIndiaBangladeshSouth AfricaBrazilMexicoUAETrkiyeChinaOECD21.41.66.80.3Number of deaths per 100,000 population from unsafe water sources,selected countrie

130、sCan the economic cost of bad water quality be determined?Polluted water harms economies:Studies found,that in regions where BOD is high,GDP growth is lowered by up to 1/3Biochemical oxygen demand1)Nitrates are lethal for babies;nitrates increase childhood stunting by 11-19%and decrease adult earnin

131、gs by 1-2%Oxidized nitrogenSalts degrades land.Due to saline water,enough food is lost each year to feed 170 million people,equivalent to the population size of BangladeshSalinityWater pollution as a cause of death has decreased significantly in developing countries-A positive development supporting

132、 people and economies1)Biochemical oxygen demand(BOD)represents the amount of oxygen consumed by bacteria and other microorganisms while they decompose organic matter under aerobic(oxygen is present)conditions at a specified temperatureSource:IHME;World Bank;Roland Berger19992019Environment&Resource

133、s3.1Climate Change&PollutionBio-diversity3.2Water3.3Resources&Raw Materials3.431Even if we stopped emitting plastics into the ocean today,plastic particles would persist in our surface waters for many decades1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.00.84.02.52.

134、72.31.5Macroplastic emissions growthMacroplastic emissions stagnateMacroplastics emissions stopMicroplastic emissions growthMicroplastic emissions stagnateMicroplastics emissions stop Past assumptions postulated that plastics in the ocean have a short lifespan,quickly degrade into microplastics,and

135、sink to greater depths however,this is incorrect Macroplastics can persist even for decades even if we were to stop emitting plastic waste into the ocean today,macroplastics would persist in our surface waters for many decades to come By 2050,there could be more plastic in the ocean than fish(by wei

136、ght)In fact,this is partly because there is a massive legacy of plastics buried along our shorelines which could re-surface and be transported to nearshore regions The level of microplastics in the oceans will increase under any scenario as the existing larger plastics continue to degrade.Any additi

137、onal plastic waste acts as a further contribution Amount of micro-and macroplastics in the surface ocean&scenarios1,2)m tonsForecast for different scenariosHow to break the plastic wave?Breaking the plastic wave could3)save government cost of up to USD 70 billion save costs to corporates of up to US

138、D 1.3 trillion generate 1 million new jobs reduce GHG emissions by 500 million tons of CO2e We must stop plastic waste entering our waterways as a matter of urgency:Most of the plastic that pollutes the oceans is due to poor waste management practices particularly in low-to-middle income countries E

139、fforts must also be focused on recapturing and removing existing plastics from our offshore waters and from shorelines1)Macroplastics are defined as buoyant plastic materials 0.5 cm in diameter,microplastics are buoyant plastic materials 10 cm1,000,000 1 cm-10 cm130,000,000 1 mm 1 cm Environment&Res

140、ources3.1Climate Change&PollutionBio-diversity3.2Water3.3Resources&Raw Materials3.438Biodiversity has rightly become as important as climate change It is essential to our life and can be explored at three interdependent levels In recent years,the topic of biodiversity,a term first coined in 1985,has

141、 gained the same importance as climate change a view long overdue as biodiversity is essential for all life on Earth While biodiversity is commonly understood as the diversity of species,including animals,plants,fungi,and bacteria that are living on Earth,there are three distinct levels of biodivers

142、ity that interact with each other Genetic diversity is the variety of genes within a species.Each species is made up of individuals that have their own genetic composition.This means a species may have different populations with different genetic variability Species diversity is the variety of speci

143、es within a habitat or a region.Some habitats,such as rainforests,have many species.Others,especially polluted or depleted habitats,have fewer.Species are grouped into families according to shared characteristics Ecosystem diversity is the variety of ecosystems in a place.An ecosystem is a community

144、 of organisms and their physical environment interacting together.The area covered by an ecosystem can vary greatly,from large forests to lakes and ponds Countries with very high levels of biodiversity are described as megadiverse.Twelve of these megadiverse countries,including e.g.Ecuador,Madagasca

145、r,and Australia,contain around 75%of our Earths biodiversity Interaction between species and natural events are key to maintaining biodiversity.Ecosystems and species adapt to disturbances that occur on a regular basis,with some of them relying on disturbances such as floods and fires for replenishm

146、ent and reproductionBiodiversity levelsGenetic diversitySpecies diversityEcosystem diversitySource:The Australian Museum;LSE;Roland BergerEnvironment&Resources3.1Climate Change&PollutionBio-diversity3.2Water3.3Resources&Raw Materials3.439Ecosystems comprise our ambient environment The surface of the

147、 Earth is a series of connected ecosystems An ecosystem is the systematic interaction of a set of living(biotic,i.e.animals,plants,and other tiny organisms)and non-living(abiotic,i.e.rocks)components of an area engaging within a particular habitat;a habitat is specific to a species or population of

148、organisms its main components are shelter,water,food,and space Covering around 71%of the planets surface area,aquatic ecosystems are the Earths biggest ecosystem:Aquatic ecosystems broadly comprise marine(saltwater)ecosystems like the ocean,coral reefs,and mangroves,and freshwater environments such

149、as rivers,freshwater lakes,estuaries,and wetlands Terrestrial ecosystems cover the remainder(around 29%):Key categories of terrestrial ecosystems include forests,grasslands,and deserts Any number of ecosystems and habitats make up a biome:A biome covers a wider physical area than an ecosystem or hab

150、itat and has a relatively large geographical zone defined mainly by its climate(precipitation and temperature).The same biome(e.g.tundra,tropical rainforest)may reoccur in several other locations around the world that share similar conditions.Because biomes are largely shaped by climate,if the clima

151、te changes so does the biome Ecosystems differ enormously depending on a range of factors other than climate,namely underlying geology,soil status,nutrients,plant and animal life,hydrology,and many more all prone to human-made activity and manipulationGrasslandDesertTypes of ecosystemsNaturalArtific

152、ial/Man-madeTerrestrialAquaticForestFresh waterMarineClassification of ecosystemsSource:National Geographic;Dasgupta Review;Roland BergerEnvironment&Resources3.1Climate Change&PollutionBio-diversity3.2Water3.3Resources&Raw Materials3.440Spiritual and religious connectionsBenefits from the landEcosys

153、tem services are the benefits humans derive from nature Over half of the worlds GDP is dependent on natures services Over half of the worlds GDP is moderately to highly dependent on ecosystem services and biodiversity,such as pollination,soil health,water quality and provision of natural resources.W

154、orld Economic Forum Ecosystem services are understood as the benefits people obtain from nature the direct and indirect contributions provided for human wellbeing and quality of life Ecosystem services can be categorized into provisioning,regulating,cultural,and supporting services.While some are mo

155、re tangible,others are complex to quantify and are only experienced indirectly Provisioning services are tangible goods that can be directly used for consumption or the production of other goods.They include the delivery of food,fresh water,wood,fuel,fiber,and medicine Regulating services,like carbo

156、n sequestration,pollination,and erosion control support ecosystem stability and lead to benefits such as climate regulation and flood management Cultural services benefit peoples wellbeing through opportunities for recreation,ecotourism,and education Finally,supporting services are more ambiguous bu

157、t form the basis for the other types of services.They support the functioning of ecosystems through nutrient and water cycling,habitat provision,and the formation of healthy soils Humanity depends on natural capital assets and ecosystem services:WEF research shows that USD 44 trillion of economic va

158、lue generation more than half of total global GDP(2019)is moderately or highly dependent on nature and its services,and thus directly exposed to risks from nature lossSediment stabilizationBenefits from the seaTerrestrial and aquatic ecosystem services Illustrative Source:Nature Agency Scotland;WEF;

159、Roland BergerEnvironment&Resources3.1Climate Change&PollutionBio-diversity3.2Water3.3Resources&Raw Materials3.441 Due to multiple direct and indirect pressures and despite long-standing local,national,and international environmental protection efforts ecosystems are under threat worldwide,with the r

160、ate of change in direct and indirect drivers differing among regions and countries Indirect drivers affecting ecosystems arise from societal behaviors and values that influence global production and consumption patterns,population dynamics,and technological progress Chief causes are land and sea use

161、 changes and(over)exploitation,pollution,invasive alien species,and climate change These five direct stressors result from an array of underlying causes across major sectors which are,in turn,linked to and driven by human population dynamics,societal behaviors,production and consumption patterns,res

162、ource use,and governance At least a quarter of the global land area is managed by indigenous and local communities.While generally declining less rapidly in these areas,nature managed by these communities is under increasing pressure due to resource extraction,commodity production,and new transport

163、and energy infrastructureMultiple pressures affect the state of ecosystems and their species Drivers of pressures on ecosystem servicesSource:WWF;IPBES;Roland Berger Indirect driversInstitutions&governance Demographic&socioculturalEconomic&technologicalConflicts&epidemicsDirect drivers Invasive alie

164、n species Land/sea use changeClimate change Direct exploitationPollutionEcosystemservicesRegulating services Provisioning servicesCultural services Supporting services Biodiversity impact TerrestrialFreshwaterMarine Environment&Resources3.1Climate Change&PollutionBio-diversity3.2Water3.3Resources&Ra

165、w Materials3.442Changes in land and sea use and direct exploitation account for more than 50%of the global impact on ecosystems Direct drivers(natural and anthropogenic)are drivers that unequivocally influence biodiversity and ecosystem processes Natural drivers cannot be influenced by human activit

166、y;these include,for example,volcanic eruptions,earthquakes,tsunamis,and tropical cyclones Anthropogenic drivers,resulting from human decisions and activity,include habitat conversion,e.g.degradation of land and aquatic habitats,deforestation and afforestation,exploitation of wild populations,climate

167、 change,pollution of soil,water and air,and species introductions.Some of these drivers,such as pollution,can have negative impacts on nature;others,as in the case of habitat restoration,or the introduction of a natural enemy to combat invasive species,can have positive effects According to the Inte

168、rgovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services(IPBES),land-and sea-use change and direct exploitation account for more than 50%of the global impact on land and aquatic ecosystems but each driver is dominant in certain ecosystem contextsOthersInvasive alien speciesPollut

169、ionDirect exploitationLand/sea use changeClimate changeTerrestrialFreshwaterMarine100%80%60%40%20%0%Relative global impact of direct drivers on ecosystems1)1)The color bands represent the relative global impact of direct drivers on terrestrial,marine,and freshwater nature,as estimated from a global

170、systematic review of studies published since 2005Source:IPBES;Roland BergerEnvironment&Resources3.1Climate Change&PollutionBio-diversity3.2Water3.3Resources&Raw Materials3.443Across ecosystems,human activity continues to severely erode the worlds ecological foundations Human actions have already sev

171、erely altered around 3/4 of the land surface and 2/3 of the ocean area.IPBESTerrestrial ecosystemsMore than 85%of wetlands have been lost32%of the worlds forest area has been destroyed1/3 of the worlds topsoil has been degradedThe Amazon has lost 17%of its size in the past 50 yearsIllustrative findi

172、ngs on ecosystem damageSource:WEF;IPBES;Roland BergerAquatic ecosystems50%of the worlds coral reef system has been destroyedMore than 55%of ocean area is covered by industrial fishing33%of fish stocks are overfishedSeagrass meadows decreased in extent by over 10%per decadeEnvironment&Resources3.1Cli

173、mate Change&PollutionBio-diversity3.2Water3.3Resources&Raw Materials3.444Our land areas are highly modified:Almost 60%of the Earths terrestrial area is under moderate to intense pressure Based on data from recent surveys,less than half(41.6%)of the Earths surface was intact or wilderness,i.e.with a

174、human footprint below the threshold to being highly modified(4)meaning it was assessed as being ecologically intact However,this includes mostly wilderness(24%).Other ecologically intact areas(17%)include areas with low density transitory human populations,for example,as well as low intensity grazin

175、g pastures The remaining area(59%)with a human footprint of 4 was under moderate or intense human pressure and is therefore regarded as highly modified This highly modified area encompasses over half the area of 11 of Earths 14 biomes The 4 threshold has been found to be robust from a species conser

176、vation perspective because,once surpassed,species extinction risk increases dramatically,and several ecosystem processes are altered 24%17%59%World131.663%Africa21%18%61%Asia20%25%56%Central and South America28%3%69%19%46%5%48%North America33%24%18%44%Oceania27.549.521.07.918.78.0EuropeWildernessInt

177、actHighly modifiedShare of anthropogenic disturbances and total surface on continents1)%,m km21)Human Footprint:Study uses a human footprint threshold of 25%)of the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide(CO2)and around 93%of the added heat arising from human-driven changes to the atmosphere Ocean

178、 economy value:Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic,OECD projected a doubling of the ocean economy from 2010 to 2030,to reach USD 3 trillion and employ 40 million people The ocean economy spans multiple sectors including oil and gas,fishing,aquaculture,shipping,ports,tourism,offshore wind energy,and marin

179、e biotechnology and is growing rapidly Global value added and jobs in the ocean economy in 2030 constant 2010 USD20102030Maritime and coastal tourismOffshore oil and gasPort activitiesMaritime equipmentFish processingOffshore windWater transportShipbuilding and repairIndustrial capture fisheriesIndu

180、strial marine aquaculture3907775046361934731683007926632308311858103214741120102030Overview of industry-specific value added in the ocean economy constant 2010 USD bnGVA1.5 trillion3 trillion2.0Jobs31 million40 million1.3Source:OECD;EarthSky;Ocean-Climate;Roland BergerEnvironment&Resources3.1Climate

181、 Change&PollutionBio-diversity3.2Water3.3Resources&Raw Materials3.449Freshwater ecosystems are key to biodiversity and human wellbeing,but their declining health poses a threat Source:UNEP;New Zealand Ministry for the Environment;Conservation International;WWF;ZSL;Roland BergerHealthy ecosystemUnhea

182、lthy ecosystemIntroduced species can take over and the number and range of species present goes downUnstable riverbanks,poor riverside vegetation,and in-stream barriers increase sediment and decrease habitat and biodiversityPollutants harm life and interfere with natural processes.Excess nutrients a

183、llow weeds to growTaking too much water causes low water levels and low flows that can harm habitat and biodiversityNot enough carbon or nutrient absorbed.This leads to algal blooms,poor water quality,and low biodiversityExcess sedimentSupports lifeWater quantityWater qualityPhysical habitatAquatic

184、lifeEcological processesNatural flowsUnnatural flowsFilter and store nutrientsNatural riverbanksHigh biodiversityHarms lifeIncreased run-offLow biodiversity Freshwater ecosystems can include rivers,streams,lakes wetlands,estuaries,and underground aquifers Despite covering less than 1%of the Earths t

185、otal surface,these ecosystems are critical for biodiversity as they provide habitat for one third of all vertebrate species,including 40%of all fish species Freshwater ecosystems are under immense pressure:resource extraction,power generation as well as pollution from plastic,chemicals and waste hav

186、e led to high levels of degradation.There has been an average decline of 35%in the area of natural inland wetlands since 1970 with a total loss of 87%since 1700 The connectivity of freshwater ecosystems has also suffered,particularly from barriers to migration routes like dams and reservoirs.Only 37

187、%of rivers longer than 1,000 km remain free-flowing over their entire length.This poses a threat to the survival of fish species that need to migrate to feed and breed Freshwater ecosystem health can be assessed along five categories:the state of aquatic life,habitat condition including connections

188、to groundwater,physical and chemical measures of water quality,water quantity including variability of flow levels and connections to different water bodies,and the ecological processes the interactions between species and their habitat Comprehensively assessing ecosystem health remains a challenge

189、and measuring components varies according to the type of ecosystem.A proposed measurement approach is the Freshwater Health Index(FHI)Environment&Resources3.1Climate Change&PollutionBio-diversity3.2Water3.3Resources&Raw Materials3.450The diversity of species living on Earth is enormous,with many spe

190、cies yet to be discovered The diversity of species in the three major kingdoms of life animals,plants,and fungi showcases the remarkable variety of life forms that exist on Earth.As more species are being discovered and described,many,especially among fungi and invertebrates,are still not known to u

191、s Estimates suggest that animals exhibit a wide range of species richness,with global numbers ranging from 3 to 30 million species.In contrast,plants are estimated to have a more constrained diversity,with approximately 450,000 to 500,000 known species Fungi,on the other hand,indicate high estimates

192、,ranging from 0.5 up to 19.4 million species,highlighting the vast number of unknown fungal diversity.This wide range is primarily due to specific challenges associated with documenting fungal diversity such as their taxonomic complexity but also the fact that fungi have historically been under-rese

193、arched Over time,our knowledge of species diversity has advanced significantly,driven by interdisciplinary collaboration,technological innovations,and a growing recognition of the importance of biodiversity conservationInvertebratesFungiPlantsVertebrates8.5 m1,480,3512.5 m172,946450,000425,03580,500

194、74,962Estimated number of species and number of described species1)1)The numbers of described species should be used with caution as these are not always up to date for all taxonomic groupsSource:Niskanen et al.;IUCN;Roland Bergerxxx:Estimatedxxx:DescribedEnvironment&Resources3.1Climate Change&Pollu

195、tionBio-diversity3.2Water3.3Resources&Raw Materials3.451USD 235-577 billion p.a.USD 1 trillionUSD 15.2 billion p.a.Sustainable biodiversity is a must have for our planet and for our economy More than half of global GDP is dependent on nature Methods to quantify the economic value of biodiversity are

196、 highly complex yet important as biodiversity is under extreme pressure worldwide,with one million animal and plant species threatened with extinction according to UN estimates WEF research shows that USD 44 trillion of economic value generation more than half of the worlds total GDP(2019)is moderat

197、ely or highly dependent on nature and its services and is therefore directly exposed to risks from nature lossThree illustrative examples More than 75%of global food crops are dependent on insect pollinators,thus contributing 35%of global food production.According to the Intergovernmental Science-Po

198、licy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services(IPBES)the annual value of global crop output at risk due to pollinator loss is estimated at USD 235-577 billion Great whales sequester 33 tons of CO2 on average over their lifetime.Together with other economic effects such as fishery enhancement,e

199、cotourism,and phytoplankton productivity(capturing 37 billion tons CO2 p.a.),the IMF estimates the average value of a great whale at more than USD 2 million and the value for the current stock of great whales at over USD 1 trillion Antarctic krill in the Antarctic Peninsula and Scotia Sea region del

200、iver carbon sequestration services with an estimated(lower bound)value of USD 15.2 billion annuallyEconomic value of selected speciesSource:UN/IPBES;WEF;IMF;WWF;Roland BergerEnvironment&Resources3.1Climate Change&PollutionBio-diversity3.2Water3.3Resources&Raw Materials3.452Biodiversity is essential

201、for medical research Natural products are a core part of drug discovery Plants are ingredients for both traditional as well as modern medicines.For example,Taxol,a compound used in chemotherapy drugs was originally discovered in the bark of a certain type of yew tree,while a compound used in aspirin

202、 originated from the bark of the willow tree Roughly 70%of all cancer drugs are natural or bioinspired and chemicals originally discovered in plants are also used to treat Alzheimers,malaria or Parkinsons Overall,more than 40%of pharmaceutical formulations are derived from nature Interdisciplinary r

203、esearch on medicinal plants conceptualizes plants and humans as symbiotic partners,integrates traditional knowledge and disciplines such as evolutionary ecology to foster innovation This approach to medicinal research allows for discovery of new therapeutic compounds and applications of medicinal pl

204、ants,emphasizes protecting plant diversity and the responsible use of plant resources,and recognizes the value of indigenous and traditional knowledgeAll flowering plant families420Flowering plant families with medicinal plants2198178454335Fabaceae1)Asteraceae2)Lamiaceae3)Apiaceae4)Rosaceae5)Floweri

205、ng plant families with the most medicinal genera Flowering plant families with medicinal plants and with the most medicinal generaSelected examples for each family:1)Chickpea,clover,liquorice;2)Artichoke,echinacea,sunflower;3)Mint,rosemary,sage;4)Anise,cumin,fennel;5)Almond,blackberry,rose Source:Da

206、vis and Choisy;WEF;WHO;Roland BergerEnvironment&Resources3.1Climate Change&PollutionBio-diversity3.2Water3.3Resources&Raw Materials3.453Biodiversity is declining:So far,more than one third of terrestrial species have been lostTerrestrial mean species abundance loss 2020 and 2050 for selected regions

207、 and countries1)%loss compared to pristine ecosystem-35%-40%-22%-35%-66%-71%-37%-41%-43%-46%WorldNorth AmericaEuropeBrazilChina33%15%1%19%11%2%17%3%2010-203039%26%12%11%11%1%0%0%2030-2050Relative share of pressures to additional terres-trial biodiversity loss 2010-2030 and 2030-20501)%Climate change

208、ForestryBioenergyInfrastructure,encroachment,fragmentationFormer land useNitrogenFood cropPasture20202050Terrestrial species abundance and biodiversity loss1)According to the Baseline scenario of the OECD,which includes steady GDP growth and a strong ongoing use of fossil fuelsSource:OECD;Roland Ber

209、gerEnvironment&Resources3.1Climate Change&PollutionBio-diversity3.2Water3.3Resources&Raw Materials3.454Over the past two decades the number of species classified as threatened has more than tripled122126283436374170BirdsReptilesMammalsCrustaceans(sel.)ConifersReef coralsSharks&raysAmphibiansCycadsSh

210、are of threatened species in selected categories 20231)%The Red List published by the International Union for Conservation of Nature(IUCN)is the most acknowledged source of information on the global status and development of species and their threat of extinction It categorizes species into seven ma

211、in categories ranging from least concern(LC)to extinct(EX),considering factors such as their geographic area,the population size,and the rate of decline.Species categorized as threatened have reached a high risk of extinction in the wild,while species categorized as near threatened are likely to bec

212、ome endangered in the near future As of 2023,more than 44,000 species are threatened with extinction,meaning that 28%of all assessed species are under threat Notably,the number of assessed species increased even more rapidly,meaning that the share of threatened species has decreased over time The nu

213、mber of species in each category can fluctuate because species are continuously being reassessed and moved between categoriesNumber of assessed and threatened species 2003-20231)157.19044.016020.00040.00060.00080.000100.000120.000140.000160.00020002005201020152020202522,42412,2591)Threatened species

214、 comprise those being assessed as critically endangered,endangered or vulnerableSource:IUCN;Roland BergerAssessedThreatenedEnvironment&Resources3.1Climate Change&PollutionBio-diversity3.2Water3.3Resources&Raw Materials3.455Biodiversity Intactness Index is an indicator of biodiversity loss under huma

215、n pressures Improvements necessitate a sustainability lens Biodiversity intactness is defined as the modeled average abundance of originally present(i.e.pre-modern times)species,relative to their abundance in an intact ecosystem after land use change or human impacts.The Biodiversity Intactness Inde

216、x3)(BII)estimates how much of an areas natural biodiversity remains At country level,the BII can be used to show how terrestrial biodiversity has fared under pressures from humanity nationally The BII concept also helps to demonstrate plausible improvement to 2050 under sustainability development as

217、pects(sustainable scenario)or not,as is the case in the middle-of-the road scenario The middle-of-the road scenario of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways4)(SSPs)assumes that there is no marked shift in social,economic and technological trends and institutions only make slow progress in achieving sust

218、ainable development goals.In the sustainable development scenario,the world gradually shifts toward a more sustainable path and there is increasing commitment to achieving sustainable development goals The underlying database is the largest and most geographically and taxonomically representative of

219、 spatial comparisons of bio-diversity collated to date including around 54,000 species of birds,mammals,plants,fungi and insects across 26,000 locations All major organizations concerned with environmental issues(e.g.UN,CBD,IPBES)have adopted the BII as a core ecological indicator90%Safe limit:Thres

220、hold for areas to have enough biodiversity to be a resilient and functioning ecosystemBiodiversity Intactness Index(BII)of selected countries in 20201)0-100%;BII changes to 2050 under a middle-of-the-road scenario(SSP2)and a sustainable scenario(SSP1)percentage points(PP)1)Based on the middle-of-the

221、-road scenario;2)Based on the sustainable development scenario;3)Developed by the Natural History Museum PREDICTS-project;4)SSPs are projected socioeconomic developments used in climate change scenarios(see Riahi et al.,2017)Source:Natural History Museum;Riahi et al.;Roland BergerEnvironment&Resourc

222、es3.1Climate Change&PollutionBio-diversity3.2Water3.3Resources&Raw Materials3.456Global abundance of wildlife populations has steeply declined A bad sign for biodiversity and ecosystem health The Living Planet Index(LPI)aims to track changes in the relative abundance of wildlife species populations

223、and includes over 30,000 terrestrial,freshwater and marine vertebrate populations representing 5,230 species Trends in relative abundance provide a snapshot of changes within an ecosystem and can act as early warning indicators of overall ecosystem health.Additionally,population trends respond relat

224、ively quickly to successful conservation and policy efforts On the global level,the Index shows an average 69%decline in monitored populations since 1970.The decline was most drastic in Latin America and the Caribbean where there was an average decline of 94%across studied population.This can partia

225、lly be explained by the intensification of agricultural activity and deforestation as well as the existence of many highly specialized species that are sensitive to changes In Europe and Central Asia,the state of wildlife populations temporarily improved,reaching a peak in the early 1990s.Since then

226、,a decline followed-as in all other regions Like the Red List,the LPI is dynamic and since the last report in 2020,838 species and 11,011 populations were added to the dataset3445826803102040608010012014019701975198019851990199520002005201020152020AfricaAsia PacificEurope and Central AsiaLatin Ameri

227、ca and the CaribbeanNorth AmericaWorldLiving Planet Index by region 1970-20181)1970=100 1)Change in the relative abundance of wildlife species 1970-2018 Source:WWF;ZSL;Roland BergerEnvironment&Resources3.1Climate Change&PollutionBio-diversity3.2Water3.3Resources&Raw Materials3.457The introduction of

228、 invasive species has been one of the main drivers of biodiversity lossesCategorization of species by invasive behaviorBiological invasion processSource:IPBES;Roland BergerNative speciesA species within its natural range,including shifting its range,without human involvement Alien speciesA species w

229、hose presence in a region is attributable to human activities that have enabled it to overcome the barriers that define its natural rangeEstablished alien speciesA subset of alien species that have produced a viable self-sustaining population Invasive alien speciesA subset of established alien speci

230、es that spread and have a negative impact on biodiversity,local ecosystems,and species TransportHuman activities move a species through introduction pathways beyond barriers that define its natural rangeIntroductionArrival at a new location outside of its natural range through human activitiesEstabl

231、ishmentProduction of a viable,self-sustaining populationSpreadDispersal and/or movement in a new region or range There are different pathways by which humans transport species from one location to another.Historically,invasive species were often introduced on purpose for their perceived benefits as

232、pets,in agriculture or horticulture.For example,35%of alien freshwater fish in the Mediterranean Basin have arisen from aquaculture Pathways for the unintentional introduction of invasive species often are the contamination of traded goods and stowaways in ballast,water,and sediments.More recently,t

233、he online trade in animals and plants has contributed to the spread of invasive species Some factors both cause changes to nature and facilitate biological invasion:climate change,pollution and the fragmentation of ecosystems through human activity can drive species beyond their natural range Common

234、ly known invasive species are the red fox,the Pacific oyster,the giant African land snail,the red imported fire ant and the lantana On islands,invasive alien species are a major cause of biodiversity loss.Islands,and particularly remote islands with high endemism,are more susceptible to impacts from

235、 invasive alien species In its 2023 Assessment on Invasive Alien Species,the IBPES records an unprecedented rise in the number of alien species in the last decades,with 37%of all known alien species having been reported since 1970.The faster spread of invasive alien species within countries can main

236、ly be attributed to direct drivers such as changes in land and sea use,with transport and utility infrastructure facilitating their spreadEnvironment&Resources3.1Climate Change&PollutionBio-diversity3.2Water3.3Resources&Raw Materials3.458Across the world,invasive alien species are a major cause of e

237、xtinction and economic losses Invasive alien species have adverse impacts on nature,its contributions to people,and the quality of life.They adversely impact good quality of life in 85%of cases,mainly by impacting material and immaterial assets and health Many species have negative cross-cutting imp

238、acts:16%of invasive alien species adversely impact both nature and natures contributions to people Invasive species have played a role in 60%of recorded global extinctions,90%of which have occurred on islands.218 invasive alien species alone have caused 1,215 local extinctions of native species,with

239、 vertebrates causing the most extinctions(50.9%)The economic costs caused by biological invasions have increased fourfold every decade since 1970.The estimated global annual economic cost in 2019 was USD 423 billion The management of invasive species can range from measures for prevention and early

240、detection to containment and eradication but also emphasizes fostering public understandingSelected examples of damage caused by invasive alien species Source:IPBES;Roland BergerCumulative documented costs of biological invasions 1970-2017 USD bnNo data110100European shore crab,North AmericaHas deci

241、mated commercial shellfish beds in New England and CanadaChytrid fungus,Central AmericaHas contributed to severs global declined of amphibians,including global extinctionsJapanese knotweed,Central and Northern EuropeReduces abundance and species richness of native plant and soil-inhabiting speciesBr

242、own tree snake,GuamHas caused the local extinction of most resident populations of Guams 25 bird speciesBuffle grass,AustraliaRestricts access to culturally important sites,making it difficult to transmit tradi-tional knowledgeNile perch,Lake VictoriaHas caused the global extinction of many endemic

243、cichlid fish speciesLittle fire ant,tropical AfricaHas caused local extinctions of forst floor and leaf-chewing invertebratesBranched pipe coral,South AmericaOvergrows native corals,causing community-wide mortalities and local extinctionsEnvironment&Resources3.1Climate Change&PollutionBio-diversity3

244、.2Water3.3Resources&Raw Materials3.459Genetic diversity is the foundation of biodiversity It describes the genetic variability within and across populations of species Genetic diversity describes the level of genetic variability within a population and across populations.It is the foundation of the

245、three levels of biodiversity,supporting and complementing species and ecosystems diversity Genetic diversity can be observed both at the population and the individual level,comprising two components,richness and evenness:richness relates to the number of genetic variants in a population while evenne

246、ss expresses the probability that two randomly drawn alleles(DNA sequences at a given genomic location)from a sample are different Genetic diversity is one of the four genetic essential biodiversity variables determining genetic composition,a measure of within-species diversity.The others include ge

247、netic differentiation(divergence in genetic composition between multiple populations of the same species),inbreeding(level of diversity within individuals),and effective population size(change of genetic diversity due to random change in the frequency of an existing gene variant in the next generati

248、on)Genetic diversity provides resilience against abrupt changes and allows species and ecosystems to adapt to changing climates,environments,and other challenges,such as diseases.Ultimately,genetic variation allows species to develop into distinct and new lineages Genetic diversity within and across

249、 populations supports ecosystem functions and contributes vital resources to society(e.g.mangroves that serve both to protect coastal habitats and as nurseries for fish),and other services,such as carbon captureThree levels of biological organization and their respective genetic essential biodiversi

250、ty variables1)1)The species level corresponds to the combined genetic diversity of the species.The population level pie charts reflect the relative population sizes and the proportion of genotypes in each population(i.e.population genetic structure resulting from gene flow and migration);the smalles

251、t circles represent unique individuals with the colors depicting their genotypesSource:Hoban et al.;Roland BergerSpecies Differentiation Number of genetic units Distance of genetic unitsPopulations Diversity Richness Heterozygosity Inbreeding Effective population sizeIndividuals Diversity Heterozygo

252、sity InbreedingGenetic compositionMating systemGene flow/migrationPopulation sizeEnvironment&Resources3.1Climate Change&PollutionBio-diversity3.2Water3.3Resources&Raw Materials3.460Genetic diversity increases chances of survival Small populations are at risk of extinction Low levels of genetic diver

253、sity can be caused by genetic bottlenecks,arising mainly in small and isolated populations following events that drastically reduce the size of the local population.Causes include human activity(culling,selective breeding,pollution)or natural events such as natural disasters and famines In the case

254、of the American bison,a combination of commercial hunting and the spread of diseases from cattle almost led to its extinction.Later,conservation efforts in parks and reserves and the reintroduction into the wild led to a rise in Bison numbers A key instrument in combating extinction and increasing t

255、he chance of long-term survival of species is maintaining the variation of genetic material:Conservation genetics aims to characterize and advance the preservation of biodiversity by applying genetic principles and methods Experiments show that genetically diverse populations have lower extinction r

256、ates,and that the injection of new genetic variants has the potential to boost the fitness of threatened species.But examples of highly successful species that lack such genetic variation are often invasive species,with short reproduction cycles and a lack of natural predators and competitors Domest

257、icated species such as dogs often display a high degree of morphological diversity.However,only a small fraction of all genes determine looks.Overall,selective breeding and small population size have unintentionally increased the numbers of harmful genetic variants within dogs The study of genetic d

258、iversity has led to new strategies to prevent extinctions such as genetic rescue-the introduction of new genetic material into a population or the translocation of individuals from different populations.An example of the former is the Przewalskis horse.By cloning individuals using a cryopreserved ce

259、ll line,researchers were able to reintroduce genetic variation that was lost from the living gene pool18301884201940 m32531,0001)Excluding commercial herdsSource:FAO;University of Melbourne;phys.org;Kardos;Revive&Restore;Marsden et al.;Roland BergerGenetic bottleneck as seen in the American bison po

260、pulation(estimate)1)Environment&Resources3.1Climate Change&PollutionBio-diversity3.2Water3.3Resources&Raw Materials3.461The loss of crop diversity has wide-ranging implications for global food security Genetic diversity is a key element in dealing with varying production environments.Crop diversity

261、directly impacts food security and agricultural sustainability,with the genetic composition contributing to crop resilience and productivity Crop genetic erosion refers to the gradual loss of genetic diversity within crop species,including traditional landraces(local cultivars),modern cultivars,and

262、wild relatives Common drivers of crop genetic erosion are the displacement of traditional landraces by high-yielding modern cultivars,shifts in agricultural practices that alter natural habitats,and ecological conditions.Furthermore,market dynamics and development processes can lead to the abandonme

263、nt of commercially unviable cultivars and the displacement of traditional crop varieties.Lastly,crop diversity is lost because there is limited access to quality seeds and a lack of support for local seed saving practices This process can be illustrated by the replacement of maize landraces with mod

264、ern cultivars in the US corn belt-a transition leading to the displacement of unique alleles and traits that were characteristic to the locally well-adapted crop population The decrease in crop diversity reduces the resilience of crops to pests,diseases,and changing environmental conditions.One of t

265、he factors causing the Irish po-tato famine was a lack of genetic diversity due to Lumper potato monocultures A more modern example is the Cavendish banana which currently dominates world markets:each banana plant is genetically identical to the previous generation making it highly susceptible to di

266、sease.In fact,its predecessor,Gros Michel,was wiped out by a fungus in the 1950s.Now,a new strain is threatening existing banana plantations in South America Due to its global importance,maintaining the genetic diversity of seeds,cultivated plants,and farmed/domesticated as well as related wild spec

267、ies is part of the UN sustainable development goal to end hungerChange in number of crop varieties in the US,1903-19831)Changed its name in 2001 to the National Center for Genetic Resources PreservationSource:Khoury et al.;Gro Intelligence;RBGK;Roland BergerOver a century agoIn 1903 commercial seed

268、houses offered hundreds of varieties,as shown in this sampling of ten crops80 years laterBy 1983 few hundreds of those varieties were found in the National Seed Storage Laboratory1)CucumberBeetCabbageSweet cornLettuceMuskmelonPeasRadishSquashTomato17281236272527407916Environment&Resources3.1Climate

269、Change&PollutionBio-diversity3.2Water3.3Resources&Raw Materials3.4622021G7 leaders 2030 Nature CompactEnvironmental protection has been on the global agenda for decades Efforts are intensifying to halt and revert nature loss2019G7 Metz Charter on Biodiversity2021Dasgupta Review The Economics of Biod

270、iversity;COP15 meeting(part 1)for the Convention on Biological Diversity CBD 2015UN Sustainable Development Goals 2030,including multiple environmental goals20212030UN Decade of Ecosystem Restoration2022COP15 meeting(part 2)Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework(GBF)is adopted.Progress evalu

271、ation to take place at COP16 in Cali,Columbia in October 20242023UN Agreement on Biodiversity beyond national jurisdiction(BBNJ,High Seas Treaty)covering marine biodiversity in international waters Timeline of major environmental and biodiversity milestones1)Proposed by a select group of internation

272、ally renowned scientists and ecology experts Source:Roland Berger2010First report of the Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity(TEEB)initiative;UN International Year of Biodiversity;Aichi Biodiversity Targets 2011-20202007G8 environment ministers+5 main newly industrialized countries meet in Potsd

273、am 2005Group on Earth Observations(GEO)/Biodiversity Observation Network nature data network2001Millennium Summit&global Millennium Ecosystems Assessment 2004,findings presented in 20051995World Business Council for Sustainable Development WBCSD1948International Union for the Conservation of Nature

274、IUCN 1961WWF 1969Green-peace 1972UN conference on Human Environment Stockholm UNEP founded 1992UN Rio Earth Summit1993Convention on Biological Diversity(CBD)treaty 2020UN Biodiversity Summit,70 world leaders pledge to reverse nature loss by 2030;EU 2030 Biodiversity Strategy(as part of Green Deal);N

275、ature-positive to 2030 Global goal for nature1)2012IPBES(Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services);latest global assessment published in 20192000The UNs Millennium Development Goals to 2015 incl.goal 7:Environmental sustainabilityEnvironment&Resources3.1Climat

276、e Change&PollutionBio-diversity3.2Water3.3Resources&Raw Materials3.463The GBF also features 23 targets to achieve by 2030,including1.Effective conservation and management of at least 30%of the worlds land,coastal areas and oceans.Currently,17%of land and 8%of marine areas are under protection2.Resto

277、ration of 30%of terrestrial and marine ecosystems3.Reduce to near zero the loss of areas of high biodiversity importance and high ecological integrity4.Halving global food waste5.Phasing out or reforming subsidies that harm biodiversity by at least USD 500 bn per year,while scaling up positive incen

278、tives for biodiversity conservation and sustainable use6.Mobilizing at least USD 200 bn per year from public and private sources for biodiversity-related funding7.Raising international financial flows from developed to developing countries to at least USD 30 bn per year8.Requiring transnational comp

279、anies and financial institutions to monitor,assess and transparently disclose risks and impacts on biodiversity via operations,portfolios,supply and value chainsAnd others The 2023 Global Biodiversity Framework agreed at COP15 is guiding global concerted action on nature to 2030 Biodiversity is now

280、treated as an important standalone issue,not simply as an afterthought of climate change and pollution In 2022,COP15 ended with a major agreement on biodiversity.The Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework(KMGBF)includes ambitious goals not only for the tackling of biodiversity loss but also

281、plans to restore ecosystems and protect the rights of indigenous peoples.Overall,it includes 4 main goals and 23 individual targets.The most well-known is the 30 x30 goal,aiming to put 30%of land and sea ecosystems under protection by 2030 a mere 6 years from now These ambitions add specific commitm

282、ents to the UN Sus-tainable Development Goals for 2030,i.e.goals 14 and 15,on Life below Water and Life on Land The next biodiversity conference,COP16,is scheduled to take place in October 2024 in Colombia The Kunming-Montreal GBF agreement:4 goals,23 targets to 20301)Least Developed CountriesSource

283、:UNEP;Roland BergerHalting human-induced extinction of threatened species and reducing the rate of extinction of all species tenfold by 20501Sustainable use and management of biodiversity to ensure natures contribution to people are valued,maintained and enhanced 2Fair distribution of the benefits f

284、rom the utilization of genetic resources and digital sequence information on genetic resources3Accessibility of adequate means of implementing the GBF to all parties,particularly LDC1)and Small Island Developing States4Environment&Resources3.1Climate Change&PollutionBio-diversity3.2Water3.3Resources

285、&Raw Materials3.464With 50%of global GDP dependent on nature,strategies to maintain and restore biodiversity are crucial for future prosperityRestore degraded ecosystems at land and seaIncrease organic farming and biodiversity-rich landscape features on agricultural landHalting and reversing the dec

286、line of pollinatorsReducing the use and risk of pesticides by 50%by 2030Planting 3 billion trees by 2030 The EU 2030 Biodiversity Strategy-introduced in May 2020,and embedded in the EU Green Deal-contains long-term commitments and action plans that aim to build societies resilience to future threads

287、 such as the impacts of climate change,forest fires,food insecurity,and disease outbreaks while protecting wildlife and fighting illegal wildlife trade Parts of the plan were later also adopted in the 2022 COP 15 biodiversity commitments,for example the so-called 30 x30 goal This framework is accomp

288、anied by various other approaches such as rewilding efforts and nature restoration targets2The EU 2030 biodiversity strategy provides an exemplary framework focused on two approachesSource:European Commission;Roland BergerRestoring at least 25,000 km of EU rivers to a free-flowing stateEstablish pro

289、tected areasof land in Europe by 2030of sea in Europe by 2030130%30%Environment&Resources3.1Climate Change&PollutionBio-diversity3.2Water3.3Resources&Raw Materials3.465The Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework(GBF),agreed at the 15th meeting of the Conference of Parties(COP15)to the UN Conv

290、ention on Biological Diversity(CBD)in December 2022,has addressed key biodiversity funding issues at the global level by targeting two areas The reduction of harmful subsidies:progressively phase out or reform by 2030 subsidies that harm biodiversity by at least USD 500 billion p.a.,while scaling up

291、 positive incentives for biodiversitys conservation and sustainable use(Target 18)The mobilization of resources and effectiveness of funding flows:by 2030,at least USD 200 billion p.a.in domestic and international biodiversity-related funding from all sources(public and private);to raise internation

292、al financial flows from developed to developing countries to at least USD 20 billion p.a.by 2025,and to at least USD 30 billion p.a.by 2030(Target 19)Less than 1%of annual global GDP could close the USD 711 billion per year biodiversity funding gap thus conserving the planets environmentGlobal biodi

293、versity conservation financing in 2019Global biodiversity conservation financing needs by 2030Bio-diversity financing gapUSD 711 bnUpper limitLower limitMean In 2019,the total global annual flow of funds toward biodiversity protection amounted to approx.USD 124-143 billion p.a.Meanwhile,annual gover

294、nment expenditure on activities harmful to biodiversity in the form of agricultural,forestry,and fisheries subsidies USD 274-542 billion p.a.in 2019 is two to four times higher than annual capital flows toward biodiversity conservationCurrent biodiversity financing flows To halt the decline in globa

295、l biodiversity requires USD 722-967 billion p.a.in spending between now and 2030 This leaves an estimated global biodiversity financing gap of USD 598-824 billion p.a.(average:USD 711 billion p.a.)equal to under 1%of annual global GDPFuture biodiversity spending needs133.5844.5722967124143Global bio

296、diversity conservation financing vs.global biodiversity conservation needs USD bnSource:Paulson Institute/Cornell/Nature Conservancy;UN COP15;Roland BergerEnvironment&Resources3.1Climate Change&PollutionBio-diversity3.2Water3.3Resources&Raw Materials3.466Tackling biodiversity loss and climate change

297、 is an investment that could yield over USD 10 trillion in business opportunities annuallyAnnualized investment required 2020-2030 to scale the transition USD trillion,annual business opportunities USD trillion,and additional jobs by 2030 m Combatting climate change by decarbonizing the economy is i

298、mportant but other direct drivers of biodiversity loss must also be tackled According to estimates from the World Economic Forum(WEF),three economic systems are responsible for nearly 80%of nature loss,namely energy and extractive sectors,infrastructure and the built environment,and food,land and oc

299、ean use Transforming these large systems along 15 transitional actions is necessary not just for natures sake but to meet the growing demands of business stakeholders to lead in a nature-conscious manner It is expected that such a transformed,nature-positive economy can unlock USD 10 trillion of ann

300、ual business opportunities and create 395 million jobs by 203010.13.53.03.619111787395Annualized investment 2020-2030Annual business opportunities by 2030Additional jobs by 20300.42.70.81.4Energy and extractivesInfrastructure and the built environmentFood,land and ocean useSource:WEF;Roland BergerEn

301、ergy and extractivesCircular and resource efficient modelsNature-positive metals and minerals extractionSustainable materials supply chainsNature-positive energy transitionInfrastructure and the built environmentDensification of the urban environmentNature-positive build environment designPlanet-com

302、patible urban utilitiesNature as infrastructureNature-positive connecting infrastructureFood,land and ocean useEcosystem restoration and avoided expansionProductive and regenerative agricultureHealthy and productive oceanSustainable management of forestsPlanet-compatible consumptionTransparent and s

303、ustainable supply chains15 transitional actions across 3 socio-economic systems to tackle biodiversity loss and climate changeEnvironment&Resources3.1Climate Change&PollutionBio-diversity3.2Water3.3Resources&Raw Materials3.467Progress is underway:Global networks are being built Rewilding is a more r

304、ecent strategy aimed at boosting biodiversity Protect the best rewild the rest:The Global Rewilding Alliance,brings together 100+organizations from over 70 countries,now also in partnership with the UN and its agenda of the Decade on Ecosystem Restoration to 2030 The work of the alliance is based on

305、 four pillars:making the point for rewilding by gathering scientific evidence,influencing policy by advocating for rewilding as key nature-based solution,building networks by connecting organizations with local communities,and inspiring communities by educating and raising awareness Let nature lead:

306、All rewilding is also restoration,but not all restoration is rewilding rewilding aims for resilience in nature,ultimately without human intervention.A newer approach to increase biodiversity without clearly defined end goals and metrics Restoration,on the other hand,refers to a wide spectrum of acti

307、vities such as reforestation,erosion control,removal of non-native species,etc.all efforts often requiring regular human intervention Work at natures scale:Initiatives include efforts to reintroduce wolves to Yellowstone,jaguars to the marshlands of Argentina,and beavers to the British Isles;restore

308、 free-roaming bison herds on the Great Plains of North America and parts of Europe;restore tigers to the forests of India;designate new marine national parks in the South Atlantic Ocean;bring back missing megafauna to wildlife conservancies in southern Africa;replenish the Scottish forests,and many

309、moreTo restore stability to our planet,we must restore its biodiversity,the very thing that weve removed,its the only way out of this crisis weve created we must rewild the world.Sir David Attenborough35 partners in North AmericaGlobal Rewilding Alliance Terrestrial&Marine(177 partners and growing)1

310、9 partners in Latin America38 partners in Europe24 partners in Africa24 partners in Asia12 partners in Oceania+12 global organizations2 partners in the Middle EastSince 2020,the Global Rewilding Alliance is partnered with the UNs Decade of Ecosystem Restoration to 2030Source:Global Rewilding Allianc

311、e;Roland BergerEnvironment&Resources3.1Climate Change&PollutionBio-diversity3.2Water3.3Resources&Raw Materials3.468Impressive success stories underline the importance of rewilding and other approaches to improve biodiversityRecently successful projects in rewilding and wildlife conservationLarge Car

312、nivore Monitoring informs policyWildlife Conversation TrustThe Large Carnivore Monitoring Project in Central India preserves biodiversity through a five-year commitment,protecting 8,778 km2 of forestland 70 km elephant proof fence protects elephants&humansPeace Parks FoundationHuman-wildlife conflic

313、t has since reduced by over 90%at Vwaza Marsh Wildlife Reserve in MalawiGlobal amphibian assessmentRe:wildLasting 8 years and engaging 1,000 experts,Re:wild assessed 8,000+amphibian species,providing valuable insight for future conservationPeninsula Mitre protection lawRewilding ArgentinaA successfu

314、l 30-year effort has achieved legislation to protect the Peninsula Mitre and its surrounding sea an essential carbon sink GBP 400,619 to rewilding projectsRewilding BritainThe Rewilding Innovation Fund continues to support initiatives that promote biodiversity and rewilding across the UKFriend of th

315、e ParksRewilding ChileThe Friends of the Parks Program fosters environmental education,local identity,and economic development around Chiles national parksCinereous vulture milestoneRewilding EuropeThe release of 14 cinereous vultures in 2022 and another 13 in 2023,contributes to reinforcing the nat

316、ural cycle of life and biodiversityVirtual fencing reduces wildlife roadkillGreat Eastern Ranges&WWF-AustraliaA virtual fence(using technology rather than physical fences)along the New South Wales South Coast has drastically reduced wildlife roadkill from 5 kangaroos and wallabies a week to 5 in 8 m

317、onthsSource:Global Rewilding Alliance;Roland BergerEnvironment&Resources3.1Climate Change&PollutionBio-diversity3.2Water3.3Resources&Raw Materials3.469Environment&Resources3%Fresh water3.1Climate Change&PollutionBio-diversity3.2Water3.3As a vital component of life,fresh water continues to be a scarc

318、e resource globally Fresh drinking water is a precious good In an era marked by exceptional global challenges and changing raw material needs,one resource stands at the forefront of sustainability and resilience fresh water As a critical component of Earths ecosystem,the availability and management

319、of freshwater resources have become central to the well-being of our planet and its inhabitants Despite covering around 70%of the Earths surface,only a very small fraction of water is fresh water and suitable for human consumption The scarcity of this vital resource poses a significant challenge as

320、the worlds population continues to grow,and climate change disrupts traditional weather patterns,exacerbating droughts and water stress Presently,a quarter of the global population lacks access to safe drinking water,posing a significant health hazard.Effects of unsafe water result in over a million

321、 deaths annually97%Salt water69%Glaciers&polar ice capsof fresh waterGround waterof fresh water30%Available as drinking waterof fresh water1%Facts around global water supply Source:USGS;UNESCO;World Bank;National Geographic;Roland BergerResources&Raw Materials3.470Millions of people still lack acces

322、s to safely managed drinking water,although the situation has improved in recent decades926871674517947975776831Europe and Northern AmericaEastern and South-Eastern AsiaLatin America and the CaribbeanNorthern Africa and Western AsiaCentral and Southern AsiaSub-Saharan Africa20002022 Despite universa

323、l access to safe drinking water being a fundamental necessity and a human right,millions of individuals worldwide still lack access The WHO defines safely managed drinking water as drinking water from an improved source1),that is located on premises,available when needed,and free from fecal and prio

324、rity chemical contamination While there have been advances in recent decades across all regions,the situation remains precarious in Sub-Saharan Africa,where less than a third of the population has access to safely managed drinking water.Globally,2.2 billion people continue to lack access to safely m

325、anaged water services,including 1.5 billion with only basic services(improved source,collection time 30 minutes),292 million with limited access(improved source,collection time 30 minutes),296 million relying on unimproved sources(unprotected dug well or spring),and 115 million obtaining drinking wa

326、ter directly from rivers,lakes,and other surface water sourcesShare of the population using safely managed drinking water services,2022%1)Improved sources include piped water,boreholes or tube wells,protected dug wells,protected springs,rainwater,and packaged or delivered waterSource:WHO/UNICEF;Rola

327、nd Berger+14pp.+23pp.+10pp.+4pp.+11pp.+2pp.85%or more70%-85%55%-70%40%-55%Less than 40%No dataEnvironment&Resources3.1Climate Change&PollutionBio-diversity3.2Water3.3Resources&Raw Materials3.471Globally,safely managed sanitation is also still in a poor state,particularly in low-income countries Safe

328、 sanitation systems are essential for safeguarding public health and socioeconomic advancement.Hence,sanitation has been acknowledged as a distinct right and is included as a Sustainable Development Goal(SDG)However,despite its importance,approximately 40%of the global population lack access to safe

329、ly managed sanitation facilities due to various obstacles,including availability,affordability,and cultural norms This poses a significant health hazard,as unsafe sanitation contributes to hundreds of thousands of deaths annually.Unsafe sanitation is a major risk factor for infectious diseases such

330、as cholera,diarrhea,dysentery,hepatitis A,typhoid,and polio.Additio-nally,it exacerbates malnutrition and is particularly detrimental to childhood growth and development Although advances have been made,progress has been insufficiently slow.A significant portion of the global population still lacks

331、access to safely managed sanitation,highlighting the urgent need for continued efforts to address this critical issue916057482483324251137121337635591601High-income countries1Upper-middle-income countriesWorldLower-middle-income countriesLow-income countries using safely managed sanitation services

332、using only basic sanitation services,improved sanitation facilities which are not shared using limited sanitation services,improved sanitation facilities which are shared using unimproved sanitation facilities practicing open defecationShare of the population using different forms of sanitation,2022

333、%Source:WHO/UNICEF;Roland BergerShare of population Environment&Resources3.1Climate Change&PollutionBio-diversity3.2Water3.3Resources&Raw Materials3.472As the water cycle is influenced by climate change,rising global warming is expected to make water management more challengingSource:FAO;World Bank;Roland Berger Water is constantly in motion.It exists in the atmosphere,on land,in oceans,and underg