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1、Just Transition to Zero-emission Trucking in IndiaAugust 2024Copyright 2024 Climate Policy Initiative climatepolicyinitiative.org.All rights reserved.CPI welcomes the use of its material for noncommercial purposes,such as policy discussions or educational activities,under a Creative Commons Attribut

2、ion-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International(CC BY-NC-SA 4.0)License.For commercial use,please contact adminsfcpiglobal.org.AUTHORSArun Krishnan arun.krishnancpiglobal.org Manish Kumar manish.kumarcpiglobal.orgVivek Sen vivek.sencpiglobal.org ACKNOWLEDGEMENTSThis report is part of Climate Policy I

3、nitiatives(CPI)ongoing work on just transition,aimed at developing knowledge and understanding in the public domain,to support effective decision-making.The authors would like to thank our knowledge partner Shakti Sustainable Energy Foundation for their contribution.The authors would like to thank t

4、he pManifold team Rahul Bagdia,Abhansha Somvanshi and Abhishek for their assistance with the surveys.The authors would like to thank Sudharshan Sundaravaradhan for his contribution to the report.The authors would like to acknowledge and thank CPI India colleagues Krishna Kumar,Amandeep Singh and Saa

5、rthak Khurana for their inputs;Kirsty Taylor,Rob Kahn and Saumya Tiwari for editing and internal review;Elana Fortin and Denny Kosasih for layout and design;and Barbara Buchner for her advice and insightful inputs.Responsibility for the information and views set out in this publication lies with the

6、 authors.ABOUT CPIClimate Policy Initiative is an analysis and advisory organization with deep expertise in finance and policy.Our mission is to support governments,businesses,and financial institutions in driving economic growth while addressing climate change.CPI has seven offices worldwide in Bra

7、zil,India,Indonesia,South Africa,the United Kingdom,and the United States.Just Transition to Zero-emission Trucking in IndiaiiiDESCRIPTORSSECTORTransportationREGIONIndiaKEYWORDSTrucking,road logistics,zero-emission trucking,just transitionRELATED CPI WORKSJust Energy Transition:Economic Implications

8、 for Jharkhand(2018)Policy Brief:Policies and Enabling Environment to Drive Private Investments for Industrial Decarbonization in India(2023)RECOMMENDED CITATIONCPI 2024.Just Transition to Zero-emission Trucking in India.ivJust Transition to Zero-emission Trucking in India LIST OF ABBREVIATIONSAbbre

9、viationDefinitionACMAAutomobile Components Manufacturers Association of IndiaASDCAutomotive Skills Development CouncilBEVBattery electric vehicleCNGCompressed natural gasCPIClimate Policy InitiativeCSRCorporate social responsibilityDDU-GKYDeen Dayal Upadhyaya Grameen Kaushalya Yojana EVElectric vehi

10、cleFADAFederation of Automobile Dealers AssociationsFICCIFederation of Indian Chambers of Commerce&IndustryFYFinancial yearGoIGovernment of IndiaGVWGross vehicle weightHDVHeavy duty vehiclesICEInternal combustion engineIEAInternational Energy AgencyINRIndian RupeeJTFJust Transition FundLCVLight comm

11、ercial vehiclesMDVMedium duty vehiclesMHIMinistry of Heavy IndustryMoRTHMinistry of Road Transport and HighwaysMSDEMinistry of Skill Development and EntrepreneurshipNAPSNational Apprenticeship Promotion SchemeNSDCNational Skill Development CorporationOECDOrganisation for Economic Co-operation and De

12、velopmentOEMOriginal equipment manufacturerOMCOil marketing companyPMKVYPradhan Mantri Kaushal Vikas YojanaPPPPublic private partnershipSTTShort term trainingSIAMSociety of Indian Automobile ManufacturersUSDUS DollarZETZero-emission truckJust Transition to Zero-emission Trucking in IndiavCONTENTSInt

13、roduction 11.Current status of the trucking sector in India 31.1 Structure of the trucking industry in India 31.2 Employment in the trucking industry in India 62.Indias transition to electric trucking 82.1 Zero emission trucking in India 82.2 Forecast for zero emissions trucking in India 92.3 Evolut

14、ion of charging infrastructure for ZETs 122.4 Trucking clusters analysis 143.Implications of a just transition to ZETs 163.1 Components of a just transition 163.2 Effects of the transition on employment 173.3 Spatial reconfiguration due to industry 193.4 Effects on dealers and suppliers 203.5 Effect

15、s on governments and utilities 204.Interventions by the government to ensure a just transition 224.1 Reskilling of impacted stakeholders 224.2 Structuring a Just Transition Fund for India 275.Conclusion and next steps 30Annexures 31Annexure 1:Vehicle categorization 31Annexure 2:Trucking clusters and

16、 survey methodology 32Annexure 3:Methodology for ZET forecast 34Annexure 4:Estimate of the size of the proposed Just Transition Fund for India 38References 39viJust Transition to Zero-emission Trucking in IndiaLIST OF FIGURESFigure 1.Registered trucks in India(January 2024)3Figure 2.Structure of the

17、 trucking industry 4Figure 3.Truck ownership profile in India 5Figure 4.Sales volume of trucks(FY 2023)6Figure 5.Actual and projected sales of trucks in both fossil fuel and zero-emission categories 9Figure 6.Fuel-wise sales of trucks in 2023 10Figure 7.Projected ZET sales BAU Scenario 11Figure 8.Pr

18、ojected ZET sales Ambitious Scenario 12Figure 9.Map of trucking clusters in India and survey locations 14Figure 10.Components of a Just Transition Framework 16Figure 11.Range of battery electric trucks 20Figure 12.Skilling models and schemes based on nature of jobs 25Figure 13.Design of a Just Trans

19、ition Fund 27Figure A1.Survey methodology 32Figure A2.Historical and projected cost of Li-ion battery packs 35Figure A3.Diesel prices(INR/liter)35LIST OF TABLESTable 1.Job categories and impact on them due to the transition 7Table 2.List of parameters and metrics for a just transition to ZET 17Table

20、 3.Ratio of direct,indirect,and induced jobs in the survey locations 18Table A1.MoRTH categorization of trucks 31Table A2.Survey locations 32Table A3.Information gathered and output in the survey of direct jobs 33Table A4.Information gathered and output in the survey of establishments 33Table A5.The

21、 growth rate of sales in truck segments 36Table A6.Inputs for baseline ZET sales numbers 37Table A7.Cost of reskilling of indirect job holders 38Table A8.Quantum of loans for impacted induced job holders 38Just Transition to Zero-emission Trucking in IndiaviiEXECUTIVE SUMMARYThe road logistics indus

22、try in India handles 70%of domestic freight and is responsible for 4%of Indias energy-related CO2 emissions and 53%of particulate matter emissions(NITI Aayog,2022).Given that Indias truck fleet is projected to grow four-fold by 2050,reducing trucking emissions is critical to achieving the countrys N

23、ationally Determined Contribution and net-zero targets.Transitioning to green mobility is also critical from the perspective of public health given the contribution of the transport sector to emissions which impact human health and wellbeing.Of all the alternatives to internal combustion engine(ICE)

24、trucks,battery electric technology is emerging as the most feasible solution in terms of both cost and technological maturity.Transitioning to battery-electric zero-emission trucking(ZET)presents challenges,including the higher total cost of ownership of ZETs than traditional ICE trucks and limited

25、charging infrastructure.The sector is expected to grow gradually based on several factors including reduction in cost and favorable government policies.The trucking industry in India employs millions of people in direct,indirect,and induced jobs.It has created 8 million direct jobs and our analysis

26、shows that there are around 9.4 million indirect and 4 million induced jobs.Adoption of ZETs would lead to job losses for workers in ICE-related trades,both in the organized and unorganized sectors,and among induced job holders who work in trucking clusters.Conversely,it would also create new job op

27、portunities in emerging areas.The co-benefits of ZET adoption include a reduction in public health expenditure on ailments related to emissions and a better quality of life.Navigating this transition requires a nuanced approach.The shift to ZETs should be people-centric and not exacerbate existing i

28、nequalities.A comprehensive approach that addresses the social and economic dimensions of the industrys reconfiguration is crucial to ensure that stakeholders are not left behind.This includes not only drivers and fleet owners but also workers in manufacturing(auto companies and their suppliers),aft

29、ersales,and induced jobs(e.g.,service providers at fuel stations,truck rest stops,restaurants,and retail shops).Policy and financial interventions should address the needs of direct,indirect,and induced workers,who will require adequate training,reskilling,and job placement programs to facilitate a

30、smooth transition.Equity considerations should also extend to communities impacted by trucking activities,particularly those near major transportation corridors,which stand to bear a disproportionate burden of the transition to ZETs.By investing in workforce readiness and aligning related policies w

31、ith equity and social justice and strengthening them with transparent information on co-benefits and opportunities can help ensure a more just transition.A Just Transition Fund for India(JTFI)could be established under the Ministry of Skill Development and Entrepreneurship(MSDE)to fund such efforts.

32、Capitalized using government budgetary support and other sources,such a fund could leverage existing government schemes,including the Pradhan Mantri Kaushal Vikas Yojana for skilling and the Pradhan Mantri MUDRA Yojana for loans.This fund could finance the multi-pronged approach required for a just

33、transition to ZETs.JTFI-supported programs could reskill workers for the new ZET landscape.Additionally,it could provide loans and grants to ensure that those who cannot be reskilled for jobs in this industry have opportunities to develop alternative livelihoods.Such efforts can help India achieve i

34、ts environmental goals while protecting the livelihoods of its trucking industry workforce.Just Transition to Zero-emission Trucking in India1INTRODUCTIONTrucking in India is,as in most countries,dominated by internal combustion engine(ICE)vehicles,whose emissions contribute to climate change and re

35、duce air quality.In 2021,the transport sector accounted for 12%of Indias energy-related CO2 emissions(IEA,2023).Within the transport sector,trucks accounted for close to 4%of Indias total energy-related CO2 emissions.Trucks also accounted for 53%of Indias particulate matter emissions(NITI Aayog,2022

36、).Indias commercial road traffic is set to grow substantially,leading to increased emissions if cleaner trucking models are not adopted.Roads are used to transport 70%of Indias freight,and the number of trucks in the country is expected to quadruple from four million in 2022 to 17 million in 2050(NI

37、TI Aayog,2022).This,in turn,will quadruple the road freight industrys oil demand,which already accounts for 25%of Indias oil imports(ibid).Substituting ICE trucks with zero-emission alternatives in India has the potential to avoid 3.8 gigatons of cumulative carbon emissions by 2050.This reduction wo

38、uld be equivalent to Indias entire current annual greenhouse gas(GHG)emissions(WEF,2023).Zero emission trucks(ZETs)eliminate tailpipe emissions by replacing ICEs with battery electric or hydrogen fuel cells.These technologies show the most abatement potential and technological maturity among availab

39、le alternatives to ICEs(Advanced Propsulsion Centre UK,2023).Given that battery electric trucks have a lower total cost of ownership(TCO)than hydrogen fuel-cell trucks,they are a more attractive option for Indian fleet owners(ICCT,2023).Battery electric trucks are,therefore,the most promising ZET te

40、chnology to replace ICEs in the medium term in India.Aside from supporting climate change mitigation,ZETs can have various health and economic benefits.Switching to ZETs could avoid 838 billion liters of diesel consumption by 2050,reducing Indias fossil fuel dependence and strengthening the resilien

41、ce of the nations energy system(Arora,Lata,&Steiner,2023).Reduced emissions also improve air quality and public health.Government regulations and policies can help to accelerate the adoption of ZETs.While manufacturers are developing ZET models for commercial launch and end-users are keen to use thi

42、s technology to limit scope 3 emissions,fleet owners are reluctant to embrace ZETs unless they achieve TCO-parity with ICE trucks,with widely available charging infrastructure.This is unlikely within this decade without sustained government investment in the research and development of ZETs,concessi

43、onal lending for fleet owners acquisition of ZETs,subsidies for manufacturing,funding for upskilling of workers,and the installation of charging infrastructure.The adoption of ZETs is expected to create new jobs in manufacturing,maintenance,and charging infrastructure development(NITI Aayog,2021).Th

44、e transport sector contributes about 6%to Indias GDP(Raghuram,2015)and the trucking industry directly employs eight million people as drivers(British Safety Council,2022),with many more employed in indirect and induced jobs.However,growth in new jobs in the industry may be offset by job displacement

45、 in fossil-fuel-related trades.The formal sector has better mechanisms to weather this transition than the informal sector.These considerations have implications for workforce skilling and government funding of the transition.2Just Transition to Zero-emission Trucking in IndiaBeyond the environmenta

46、l imperative,the transition to ZETs presents an opportunity for socio-economic transformation.Most studies on ZETs to date focus on its techno-commercial implications,with only a few addressing its just transition elements.This report attempts to fill this gap by examining the impact of the transiti

47、on on various stakeholders especially those working in indirect and induced jobs in the trucking industry.The report projects the expected electric truck sales in India to provide a basis for understanding the resource requirement for engendering a just transition.Trucking clusters were surveyed to

48、determine the ratio of direct,indirect,and induced jobs in the sector.From this data,the total employment in the sector is determined,which provides a basis for projecting the funding and skilling needs for a just transition in the sector.This report then provides recommendations on skilling and fin

49、ancing interventions that the government could implement to make the transition to ZETs just.This includes establishing a Just Transition Fund for India which can be housed under the MSDE.The fund can be used for both the reskilling of impacted workers and the provision of loans for induced job hold

50、ers who are forced to seek alternative livelihoods due to the transition.Just Transition to Zero-emission Trucking in India31.CURRENT STATUS OF THE TRUCKING SECTOR IN INDIA The road logistics sector in India is expected to grow at a compounded annual growth rate(CAGR)of 8%to reach USD 330 billion by

51、 2025(C.H.Robinson,2024).Road logistics in India is heavily reliant on diesel trucks,of which heavy and medium-duty trucks constitute a fleet of about 7 million vehicles(MoRTH,2023)(Figure 1).A rapid transition to a greener trucking fleet will boost Indias alignment with Paris Agreement goals and In

52、dias target of reaching net zero by 2070.This section of the report examines the current industry structure and the nature of employment within it.Figure 1.Registered trucks in India(January 2024)Registered Trucks(in millions)HDV-5.68MDV-0.85LCV-9.9560%5%35%Source:Vahan Dashboard,Ministry of Road Tr

53、ansport and Highways1.1 STRUCTURE OF THE TRUCKING INDUSTRY IN INDIAIndias trucking industry has multiple actors,as shown in Figure 2.While most logistics service providers(LSPs)own some trucks,they tend to remain asset-light and move cargo almost entirely through third parties(Raghuram,2015).They ar

54、e directly served by small fleet owners(SFOs)and their brokers/agents.These core stakeholders are supported by four groups:manufacturers,truck bodybuilders,drivers,and fuel suppliers.All these actors are embedded in an ecosystem of support services,the government,and regulatory bodies(Raghuram,2015)

55、.4Just Transition to Zero-emission Trucking in IndiaFigure 2.Structure of the trucking industryCustomersTrucking CompaniesBrokers/AgentsRTO,Tax Administrators,Trafc Police,Road Development Authorities,Centre(MORTH)and StatesFinancing,Insurance,Maintenance and Repair,Food and Stay,IT Services and Ass

56、ociationsManufacturersTruck Body BuildersDriversFuel SuppliersGovernment and Regulatory BodiesSupport ServicesTangible ElementsCore ActorsPure Truck OwnersSource:(Raghuram,2015)Limited regulation and low barriers to entry have led to a crowded and fragmented freight market,with numerous SFOs and uns

57、killed drivers.SFOs,which comprise over 75%of the market,own fewer than five trucks(NITI Aayog,2022).Only about 10%of Indias truck fleet is owned by operators with more than 20 trucks(Raghuram,2015)(Figure 3).Just Transition to Zero-emission Trucking in India5Figure 3.Truck ownership profile in Indi

58、aMore than 20 trucks6 to 20 trucks1 to 5 trucks75%15%10%Source:IISD,2013Brokers or agents connect logistics companies to SFOs matching demand with the fragmented supply.They support consignors(customers)directly or help to connect SFOs to LSPs.Since LSPs have limited means of assessing an SFOs perfo

59、rmance,the broker helps to determine the reliability of the SFO(Raghuram,2015).This allows the LSPs to remain asset-light while managing demand for their services.Brokers also play an important role in obtaining business for truck operators.SFOs lack market information on consignors,creating challen

60、ges in securing adequate loads to fully utilize their assets.Estimates indicate that trucks can be idle for 25%to 30%of the time due to inefficient demand/supply matching(Deloitte,2020).In addition,only about 30%of truckstypically those owned by large fleet operators(LFOs)have long-term annual contr

61、acts with consignors,which have escalation clauses that allow the pass-through of incremental costs(CRISIL,2018).SFOs do not have the funds or information to obtain such contracts and,therefore,depend on brokers,who decide freight rates and charge high commissions(IISD,2013).The truck manufacturing

62、industry is another key stakeholder in the ZET transition.India is the fifth-largest market globally for trucks(C.H.Robinson,2024).A diverse range of manufacturers cater to various segments,including light commercial vehicles(LCVs)for last-mile connectivity,medium duty vehicles(MDVs)for regional hau

63、l,and heavy-duty vehicles(HDVs)for long-haul and construction(Figure 4).Indias domestic sales of HDVs grew at a CAGR of 7%between FY 2014 and FY 2023.Four Indian original equipment manufacturers(OEMs)account for nearly all their sales.These companies have also been expanding exports to international

64、 markets including Africa,the Middle East,and Southeast Asia.6Just Transition to Zero-emission Trucking in IndiaFigure 4.Sales volume of trucks(FY 2023)9,772 48,333 103,480 159,008 OthersVolvo Eicher-CVAshok LeylandTata MotorsHDV Sales(FY 23)52,052 65,654 199,682 240,499 OthersAshok LeylandTata Moto

65、rsMahindra&MahindraLCV-Sales(FY 23)Source:Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers The Indian government has implemented regulations to improve vehicle safety,emissions standards,and fuel efficiency.The implementation of Bharat Stage VI(BS-VI)emission norms has significantly impacted the industry

66、by pushing manufacturers to develop cleaner and more efficient trucks.Some have started producing electric trucks and buses,with a focus on last-mile delivery and urban transportation.The truck manufacturing industry in India is expected to continue growing as the economy develops and road logistics

67、 demand increases.The transition to cleaner and more efficient vehicles,including electric trucks,is likely to shape the industrys future.1.2 EMPLOYMENT IN THE TRUCKING INDUSTRY IN INDIAIndias growing transportation and logistics sectors are increasing demand for truck drivers,warehouse personnel,an

68、d cargo handlers,providing essential employment to semi-skilled and unskilled laborers.Jobs created by the trucking industry can be classified as direct,indirect,and induced jobs.Direct jobs are those directly connected to the core activities of transporting goods and managing the logistics of truck

69、ing operations(Table 1).These include truck drivers and assistants,fleet owners,and other personnel employed by trucking companies.Truck drivers often associate themselves with specific fleet owners.Their salaries consist of a fixed component,with an additional variable component that is typically t

70、ied to the distance driven.In a recent survey,truck drivers in India reported a median direct monthly income of INR 17,000(USD 205)1(PPHF,2022).An additional variable component comes from achieving fuel optimization(approximately INR 1,500 to 2,000 per trip)among other sources;22.6%of truck drivers

71、reported having to supplement their wages with an alternative source of income.Indirect jobs encompass roles upstream and downstream of the trucking industry(Table 1).Upstream indirect jobs relate to the manufacture of trucks and their components,while downstream indirect jobs are in aftersales serv

72、ice and fuel stations.1 A conversion rate of USD 1=INR 83 has been used.Just Transition to Zero-emission Trucking in India7The automotive ecosystem has many independent service stations.However,in India,not all have well-qualified staff,which will make servicing EV powertrain systems challenging.Res

73、killing mechanics is crucial to ensure the continuity of this service business,although the impact in the short to medium term may not be significant due to the considerable number of ICE vehicles that still need to be serviced as the transition gets underway.Induced jobs are roles created because o

74、f economic activity generated by the trucking sector(Table 1).These are typically found in localities surrounding clusters where trucking companies and their employees purchase goods and services.They include jobs in local restaurants,hotels,retail stores,and other businesses that benefit from the i

75、ncreased economic activity brought about by the presence of the trucking industry.Table 1.Job categories and impact on them due to the transitionJob TypeDefinitionImpact of the Transition to ZETDirect JobsJobs directly tied to the core activities of trucking,including truck drivers,assistants,fleet

76、owners,and other company personnel.Truck Drivers:may face changes in income due to differences in ZET operation and maintenance(compared to ICE trucks).May need to supplement wages with alternative income sources.Fleet Owners:may need to adapt their business models and invest in ZET infrastructure.I

77、ndirect JobsUpstream indirect jobs-truck and component manufacturing;Downstream indirect jobs-aftersales service and fuel stations.Manufacturing:shifts in demand from ICE to ZET will impact employment in truck manufacturing and related industries.Aftersales Service:mechanics and service personnel wi

78、ll need to upskill for ZET maintenance.Fuel Stations:will need to diversify services beyond fossil fuels.Induced JobsJobs which arise from economic activity around the trucking sector,such as local businesses benefiting from trucking-related spending.Truck-stop businesses:restaurants,hotels,retail s

79、tores,etc.,in trucking clusters will see changes in customer base and demand based on ZET adoption.Source:CPI analysisAnother classification of workers in the trucking value chain is based on whether they are covered by the Employees State Insurance Corporation pension scheme.Jobs covered by this sc

80、heme are classified as formal and others as informal.Formal sector workers,such as employees of manufacturing firms and authorized service stations,have better opportunities for reskilling and redeployment within their companies or elsewhere in the industry.This is not the case for millions of infor

81、mal workers,such as mechanics and workers at truck lay-bys.Such roles are largely semi-skilled or unskilled and financing will be needed to help these workers secure alternative livelihoods if they are impacted by the transition to ZET.8Just Transition to Zero-emission Trucking in India2.INDIAS TRAN

82、SITION TO ELECTRIC TRUCKING 2.1 ZERO EMISSION TRUCKING IN INDIAWhile Indias electric vehicle(EV)market is growing,driven by government policy and incentives,ZETs have not yet been as widely adopted as passenger EVs.There has been selective adoption of commercial EVs in the LCV segment.Short-haul tru

83、cks have predictable daily ranges and payloads,return-to-base operations,reliable and dedicated parking,and lend themselves to innovative business models(ICCT,2023).However,there is hesitance to purchase ZETs for long-haul,open-ended trucking operations.Consignors are interested in having LSPs deplo

84、y ZETs to reduce their scope 3 emissions,but fleet operators are not yet adopting them.A lack of financing options,opacity concerning end-of-life value,the lack of a secondary market,and concerns about limited charging infrastructure for long-distance operations have hindered the uptake of M/HDVs,in

85、 particular.While ZETs offer lower operating costs than ICEs across various freight categories in India,higher upfront costs have kept the TCO for ZETs above that of ICEs.Recent technological advances promise to reduce the cost of batteries,but a trade-off exists between truck weight and range-per-c

86、harge,creating a payload penalty for ZETs.Balancing the payload capacity with range will be crucial for successful adoption(Abhyankar,et al.,2022).Achieving the ZET transition in the M/HDV segment requires a holistic approach,with financial innovation,policy changes,and technological advancements as

87、 essential enablers.The Indian government is promoting ZETs to help meet the countrys ambitious emission reduction targets.In 2020,NITI Aayog and the OECDs International Transport Forum jointly launched the five-year Decarbonizing Transport in Emerging Economies project,which aims to aid India in de

88、veloping a pathway towards a low-carbon transport system through modeling tools and policy scenarios.In 2022,NITI Aayog launched the Electric Freight Accelerator for Sustainable Transport(e-FAST),a platform to foster public-private collaboration on large-scale freight electrification.This initiative

89、 has brought on board 16 manufacturers and LSPs who have signaled a collective demand for 7,750 ZETs by 2030.To meet this demand,policy and regulatory efforts will be required to establish market certainty,create scalable pilot support,develop infrastructure,and create financing platforms to attract

90、 private investment.The office of Indias Principal Scientific Advisor has also developed the Technical Roadmap for Deployment of Zero-Emission Trucking in India in consultation with experts from various sectors(NITI Aayog,2023).This document presents a five-year strategy outlining timelines,budgets,

91、and collaborative efforts to facilitate the ZET transition.It highlights priority trucking routes for ZET deployment and the commencement of pilot programs involving 60-70 electric trucks.Further government intervention is required to explore contextual factors,including road conditions,traffic patt

92、erns,and climate,which directly affect the performance of ZETs.Just Transition to Zero-emission Trucking in India9Investigating the energy consumption of ZETs under local conditions is essential to understanding how they perform during routine operations in Indian roads.The evolution of long-distanc

93、e ZETs will also require electrifying open-ended routes.The National Highways Authority of India and other government and private stakeholders will need to cooperate to develop land parcels and land use models across the highway network to develop truck rest stops integrated with charging stations.2

94、.2 FORECAST FOR ZERO EMISSIONS TRUCKING IN INDIAGrowth in Indias truck market is projected to continue,with a slight concentration on LCVs.In FY 2023,approximately 0.95 million trucks were sold,following a slight dip due to factors including the COVID-19 pandemic,the transition to BS-VI emission sta

95、ndards,and adjustments in axle load norms.Sales of trucks are expected to increase to 1.2 million units by 2030 and to 1.7 million units by 2040(Figure 5).The LCV segment leads truck sales,due to the expansion of industries like e-commerce,construction,and logistics,as well as increasing demand for

96、fuel-efficient vehicles.Figure 5.Actual and projected sales of trucks in both fossil fuel and zero-emission categoriesFY15ACTUALPROJECTEDFY17FY19FY21FY23FY25FY27FY29FY31FY33FY35FY37FY390200,000400,000600,000800,0001,000,0001,200,0001,400,0001,600,0001,800,0002,000,000HDVLCVMDVNumber of trucks soldSo

97、urce:FADA,CPI analysis10Just Transition to Zero-emission Trucking in IndiaZETs have yet to see widespread adoption in Indias truck segment,which is predominantly powered by diesel due to its higher power output and widespread availability of both engines and fuel.Sales of compressed natural gas truc

98、ks grew initially but declined after the revised gas pricing formula came into effect in 2022.The sale of ZETs as a percentage of total truck sales is highest in the HDV segment,with 0.71%of new registrations in 2023,followed by LCV(0.16%)and MDV(0.07%).This can be attributed to the low base of HDV

99、sales overall(Figure 6).Figure 6.Fuel-wise sales of trucks in 2023MDVHDV0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%DieselElectricPetrolPetrol/CNGZET shareShare of ZETs in total sales%of total salesLCV0.16%0.07%0.71%0%0.1%0.2%0.3%0.4%0.5%0.6%0.7%0.8%Source:FADAJust Transition to Zero-emission Trucking in India

100、11Major Indian commercial vehicle OEMs,and some startups,have started producing ZETs or announced plans to do so.However,they face the challenge of importing powertrain and battery pack components,which are not manufactured indigenously.The reskilling of manufacturing and maintenance personnel must

101、focus on these components and other evolving technologies.Prominent truck manufacturers in India have also initiated the journey to adopt ZETs.For example,Tata Motors,which holds a substantial market share,has committed to achieving net-zero emissions for its trucks by 2045.CPI analysis indicates th

102、at annual ZET sales will reach 0.04 to 0.09 million units by 2030 and around 0.27 to 0.38 million units by 2040(Figure 7 and Figure 8).This is based on CPIs projection of annual commercial ZET sales in India using a proprietary model based on public and proprietary datasets,insights from expert inte

103、rviews,and in-house expertise(see Annexure 3 for details).The two scenarios modeled are:1)business-as-usual(BAU)with no major policies to increase ZET penetration;and 2)an ambitious scenario with sector-specific policies aligned with the governments net-zero and climate targets.Figure 7.Projected ZE

104、T sales BAU ScenarioFY24FY26FY28FY30FY32FY34FY36FY38FY40050,000100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000LCVMDVHDVNumber of ZETs soldSource:CPI analysis12Just Transition to Zero-emission Trucking in IndiaFigure 8.Projected ZET sales Ambitious ScenarioFY24FY26FY28FY30FY32FY34FY36FY38FY40050,000100,000150,00

105、0200,000250,000300,000350,000400,000LCVMDVHDVNumber of ZETs sold Source:CPI analysisThe growth potential of ZETs in India is limited by several factors.Government policies and initiatives will be significant in determining their penetration,as observed by the difference in outcomes of the two scenar

106、ios.ZET growth is also linked to the development of other technologies,such as flex-fuels,which can work on existing ICE engine platforms.Given that the weight of trucks limits their range,LCVs can run on lighter battery packs than M/HDVs.This is reflected in our projections,which show that by the y

107、ear 2040,almost 22%to 28%of the LCV fleet in India will be electrified,compared to only 7%to 12%of the HDV fleet.ZET adoption also depends on the parallel development of a charging network,especially on highways serving M/HDVs.2.3 EVOLUTION OF CHARGING INFRASTRUCTURE FOR ZETSInfrastructure for ZETs

108、primarily relates to the charging ecosystem.A transition is happening in various countries,including India,from charging infrastructure designed for passenger EVs to higher-capacity applications such as electric buses and electric M/HDVs.The beachhead model of truck electrification proposed by the D

109、rive to Zero initiative projects that predictable delivery routes will be among the first to be electrified(Drive to Zero,2020).Preparation for this is ongoing,with several companies entering the last-mile connectivity Just Transition to Zero-emission Trucking in India13space using LCVs.Most new ent

110、rants in this market are vertically integrated with their charging infrastructure,whether they own or lease their fleets.However,it will be more challenging to electrify the long-haul open-ended routes of M/HDVs.Lessons may be learned from China,which is leading in ZET adoption globally,accounting f

111、or 86%of sales in 2022,with over 50,000 units sold(IEA,2023).This reflects Chinas strategy to shift its EV focus to trucks,enabled by battery-swapping technology(see Box 1.)In comparison,Indias sales of ZET in FY 2023 numbered less than 5,000.Box 1.Battery swapping as a driver of truck electrificati

112、onSwapping batteries can be the most efficient charging method for M/HDVs as it reduces idle time and enhances distance covered in a day.Battery swapping could also help to disperse charging demand,easing the strain on power grids at peak times.Battery swapping takes a few minutes compared to 40 min

113、utes for DC fast charging for an electric truck.It also reduces the spatial requirements of charging stations.For example,Indias first battery-swapping station for public buses in Ahmedabad can charge 12 batteries simultaneously.Established by Ashok Leyland and Sun Mobility,this station allows drive

114、rs to make one 3-to-4-minute battery swap per trip.The frequency of swaps enables reduced battery size,which in turn maximizes bus space,allowing more passengers to be accommodated.Battery swapping is a key reason for Chinas success in the electric truck market.The national and local governments hav

115、e promoted battery swapping since 2020.In 2022,almost half of electric trucks sold in China were equipped with swap-capable batteries(Hongyang Cui,Yihao Xie,and Tianlin Niu,2023).As of February 2024,the Government of India has set up 12,146 public EV charging stations across the country but has not

116、commenced the development of rapid charging stations for trucks(PIB).Given the slow pace and low numbers of high-capacity charging stations being set up by the government,the private sector could play an enabling role.In addition,it is important to note that trucking can be fully zero-emission only

117、when the charging infrastructure is powered purely by renewable sources.The weighted average emission factor for Indias power sector as of December 2023 was 0.716 kgCO2/kWh(Central Electricity Authority,2023).In comparison,a similar data point available for a country in the European Union,namely Pol

118、and,suggests that the grid GHG emissions of Poland were 0.600 kgCO2e/kWh(ICCT,2023).Hence,the emissions intensity of the power sector in India must be reduced in tandem with the growth of ZETs to fully reduce trucking sector emissions.Fuel stations will be impacted by the transition to ZETs.The Indi

119、an fuel retail market is organized and consolidated,with fuel stations catering to vehicles ranging from two-wheelers to heavy trucks.The industry operates primarily through retail outlets owned by government oil marketing companies(OMCs),which may be operated by either the OMC or a dealer.The OMC m

120、ay also lease fuel stations to another company which then has them operated by a dealer(HPCL,2024).The expansion of CNG vehicles has introduced another business model called the dealer-owned,dealer-operated model.Adani Gas,for instance,has launched over 300 dealer-owned 14Just Transition to Zero-emi

121、ssion Trucking in Indiaand-operated CNG stations,which allows dealers to own and manage stations,with oversight of critical infrastructure by Adani Gas(Adani Gas,2022).Given that the projected uptake of ZETs will be gradual over the next decade,fuel stations have an opportunity to evolve into chargi

122、ng stations or diversify into other businesses.OMCs are taking the lead in this by setting up charging facilities at fuel stations across India.2.4 TRUCKING CLUSTERS ANALYSISTrucking clusters in India were analyzed to understand indirect and induced employment due to the trucking sector.Unlike in de

123、veloped economies,there are no organized sector truck stop companies in India.Our survey indicated that trucks cluster around sites including rest stops,agricultural mandis(wholesale markets),ports,inland container depots,industrial estates,special economic zones,weighbridges,and warehouses.A mappin

124、g of these clusters was done to understand their spread across the country.A cross-section of these clusters was then considered for a survey on the indirect and induced jobs likely to be impacted by the ZET transition(Figure 9).The surveyed trucks include LCVs,MDVs,and HDVs,which carry a range of c

125、argo types,including containers,bulk cargo,agriculture commodities,and break-bulk cargo for last-mile delivery.Annexure 2 summarizes further details about this survey.Figure 9.Map of trucking clusters in India and survey locationsICD TughlaqabadKoyambedu MarketJNPTHaldia PortD Devraj Urs TruckTermin

126、al YeshavntapuraJagatpur Truck TerminalMadhavaram Truck TerminalAzadpur MandiMIHANSanjay Gandhi Transport NagarUse-categoriesICDAgri MandiPortTruck terminalTruck terminal+truck building cluster10Number of trucking clusters3,500Source:CPI analysisJust Transition to Zero-emission Trucking in India15Tw

127、o trends will impact indirect and induced jobs in trucking clusters:technological advances and sector formalization.Long-distance electric trucks will need charging points at regular intervals on highways to operate.During this period of rapid technological evolution,the range of batteries and the u

128、se of charging points will reconfigure trucking clusters.Charging point operators(CPOs)incur fixed costs,including land leases,capex for charging stations,maintenance expenses,and salaries.In addition,CPOs must be close to high-capacity power lines to receive adequate voltage.To ensure a return on i

129、nvestment,CPOs need to have a minimum number of charging guns and a minimum utilization level.To defray their high fixed costs,they should also seek parallel revenue streams by offering services such as retail,boarding,lodging,EV maintenance and repair,and advertising.In parallel,truckers seeking to

130、 minimize idle time due to charging will value access to retail,boarding,and lodging at charging stations,especially on long-distance routes.This could further consolidate and formalize truck stops across the highway network.This formalization and relocation of truck stops will cause job losses in s

131、ome locations and gains in others.Some existing clusters will stop being patronized,leading to unemployment or a need for worker reskilling.While fuel stations and related businesses will be impacted,the projected slow uptake of ZETs over the next decade gives them time to evolve into charging stati

132、ons or to diversify into other businesses.Informal service providers will lose business and revenue,impacting induced and informal jobs.Understanding the nature of this job displacement will be key for deploying policies and financial interventions for making this transition just.16Just Transition t

133、o Zero-emission Trucking in India3.IMPLICATIONS OF A JUST TRANSITION TO ZETSOur analysis shows that there are currently about 9.4 million indirect jobs and about 4 million induced jobs in the trucking industry in India.A shift to ZETs creates a need for extensive reskilling of this indirect workforc

134、e currently employed in the ICE vehicle value chain.It also requires financing alternative livelihoods for induced job holders who cannot be reskilled for new roles.A just transition framework must consider multi-dimensional and interconnected aspects of the transition to ensure an optimal outcome f

135、or all stakeholders who stand to lose out due to the transition.3.1 COMPONENTS OF A JUST TRANSITIONFigure 10 shows a Just Transition Framework across four dimensions:recognition,procedural,distributional,and restorative justice(European Environmental Agency,2024).Figure 10.Components of a Just Trans

136、ition FrameworkRecognition JusticeRecognizes that some communities and individuals might be impacted due to the green transition;identifies such individuals and groupsProcedural JusticeHighlights the right to a fair process,and for diferent stakeholders to take part equitably in decision makingDistr

137、ibutional JusticeConcerns the equitable distribution of burdens and benefits of energy and environmental decisionsRestorative JusticePrimarily aims to repair the harm done to individuals,instead of focusing on punishing the ofender Source:(European Environment Agency,2024)Context-specific solutions

138、are required to meet the needs of different stakeholders across different geographies.This framework should therefore be customized to meet the needs of those likely to be impacted by the transition to ZETs,by identifying relevant parameters and metrics for each pillar,as outlined in Table 2.Section

139、 4 of this report proposes solutions for engendering a just transition in this sector by focusing on skilling and financing alternative livelihoods both of which have elements of all these components of a just transition.Just Transition to Zero-emission Trucking in India17Table 2.List of parameters

140、and metrics for a just transition to ZETJustice dimensionParameterMetricRecognitionIdentifying stakeholders affected by the transition(individuals and groups covering regions,social groups,gender,age,etc.)Have all the stakeholders direct and indirect-been identified?Has the distribution of jobs(dire

141、ct,indirect,and induced)by job role,gender,and sub-sector been identified?Have the incentives(for skilling)required for different stakeholders for ZET been identified?Stakeholder-wise quantitative and qualitative impact measurement What is the extent of the impact of this transition on job roles?Wha

142、t is the number of jobs lost/gained categorized by job role?How many new job roles are created?ProceduralProcedural fairness in identifying the concerns of different stakeholders regarding the choices made for the transition Have all impacted stakeholder groups been consulted by the government in a

143、structured manner?What are the grievance redressal pathways available to them?Is access to skilling or financial assistance for different stakeholders easy?DistributionalFairness in engaging with stakeholders during the transition How easy are grievance redressal pathways to access?Has an assessment

144、 been made to determine the cost or burden of transition on the stakeholders?How is the burden of the differential impact of the transition on diverse stakeholder groups distributed?RestorativeMainstreaming of affected stakeholders with a well-defined roadmap Have the reskilling and upskilling optio

145、ns for stakeholders been identified?Have the affected stakeholders been included in the mainstreaming strategy?Fairness in financial inclusion of affected stakeholders during the transition Has the cost or compensation to manage the negative impact of the transition on livelihoods of different stake

146、holders been estimated?Is the estimated cost or compensation sufficient to restore their livelihoods?Source:CPI AnalysisJust transition concerns need to be foregrounded to formulate optimal implementation strategies and a related monitoring mechanism as the transition progresses.Synchronized efforts

147、 by the government and private sector are required to strengthen partnerships and alliances to ensure that the transition is just at all levels.3.2 EFFECTS OF THE TRANSITION ON EMPLOYMENTAs identified in Section 1.1,key entities in the trucking industry include trucking companies,brokers,and fleet o

148、wners.These are,in turn,serviced by truck manufacturers,truck bodybuilders,drivers,and fuel suppliers,forming an ecosystem that includes support services,government bodies,and regulatory entities.SFOs lack the certainty of long-term contracts and mostly attach their fleets to trucking companies that

149、 interface with customers and manage their logistics.This semi-formal arrangement is untenable for ZETs;long-term financing is required for ZETs,which is only available to companies with reliable income afforded by long-term contracts.18Just Transition to Zero-emission Trucking in IndiaIn addition,t

150、he typical tenor of a truck loan in India of up to 60 months may be inadequate for ZETs,given that secondary capex is required to replace batteries in the middle of the vehicles lifetime.Hence,longer tenor loans or refinancing of existing loans are required.CPIs survey conducted for this study found

151、 that there are 0.7 indirect downstream informal jobs for every direct job in Indias trucking industry(see Table 3).Given that there are 8 million truck drivers in the country(British Safety Council,2022)2,there are around 5.6 million related indirect jobs in fuel stations and unorganized sector mec

152、hanics.Table 3.Ratio of direct,indirect,and induced jobs in the survey locationsTotal number of direct jobs across the survey sites19,170Total number of indirect(downstream informal)jobs across the survey sites12,509Ratio of indirect(downstream informal)jobs to direct jobs0.7Total number of induced

153、jobs across the survey sites9,513Ratio of induced jobs to direct jobs0.5Source:CPI and pManifold analysisIndirect formal jobs,such as those in OEMs and formal aftermarket service,will also be impacted by the transition.We calculate that there are 3.8 million upstream indirect jobs in manufacturing,s

154、ales,and service of trucks.3 Adding the upstream and downstream indirect jobs in the trucking industry,the total indirect jobs in the trucking industry are around 9.4 million.Many of these,especially those related to ICE powertrain and electronics,will be impacted by the ZET transition.However,these

155、 workers are largely in the formal sector and can be reskilled to work in the ZET value chain.The most vulnerable among indirect workers are the informal sector service mechanics,who are spread across India.OEMs may limit access to ZET software and electronic components,as well as related expertise,

156、to authorized dealers and service stations due to safety and intellectual property considerations.This will impact informal sector mechanics who require access to skilling in the new technologies to survive the transition to ZET.The unregistered,small-scale activities that define the informal sector

157、 pose challenges in skills enhancement.This sectors structure restricts access to official training and opportunities for improving skills,complicating structured skilling initiatives compared to the organized sector.Induced jobs in the trucking industry will be the most vulnerable in the transition

158、 to ZETs.Our survey indicates that there are about 0.5 induced jobs for every direct job in the sector,translating to 4 million jobs across India.Since these jobs do not require any specific skills or 2 There are multiple estimates of the number of truck drivers in India.The estimate used in this re

159、port is based on figures from the British Safety Council.3 The overall value of Indias automotive industry,including light,medium,and heavy-duty vehicles,is USD 90 billion,with 19 million direct and indirect jobs(PIB,2023).The value of M/HDV trucks market in India in 2021 was USD 11.2 billion(Resear

160、ch and Markets,2022).For LCVs,assuming an average price of INR 1 million per LCV and with 0.57 million registrations in FY 2023(FADA),translates to annual sales of USD 6.8 billion1.Hence,the total LCV,MDV and HDV sales per annum totals USD 18 billion.Taking the number of workers in proportion to the

161、 market size gives 3.8 million workers engaged in truck manufacturing,aftermarket sales and service.Just Transition to Zero-emission Trucking in India19educational attainment,they are held by the most vulnerable sections of society.Depending on how the sector formalizes,almost all induced jobs may b

162、e under threat especially those in informal truck rest stops across Indias highway network.Financing alternative livelihood creation via financial support mechanisms such as MUDRA loans,which are aimed at micro and small-scale entrepreneurs,provide a possible path for the impacted induced job holder

163、s to find alternative livelihoods.3.3 SPATIAL RECONFIGURATION DUE TO INDUSTRY The clustering of ZETs around charging stations rather than informal truck rest stops will impact jobs in informal truck stops across the Indian highway network.Over time,electric charging will formalize truck stops and th

164、eir related workforce.While formal roles will increase alongside a decrease in related informal ones,a net loss in jobs is expected due to higher efficiencies in the formal sector.Figure 11 shows the range of several trucks produced across the world as of 2023(CALSTART,2023).The median range for com

165、mercially available ZETs globally stands at slightly above 402 km per charge.However,models that are commercially available in India have a range of 110 km to 180 km per charge(JMK Research&Analytics,2024).Our survey found that HDVs in some use-categories in India travel up to 460 km per day,meaning

166、 that they would need to recharge multiple times every day.The data for battery energy density is clustered around 200 kWh for HDVs and around 100 kWh for M/LCVs.4 An estimate predicts that the energy density of batteries could increase by 50%between 2024 to 2030(S&P Global,2018),which would increas

167、e the range of ZETs given the same battery payload.India must expand its charging network and raise battery charge densities for locally manufactured trucks to global standards to take advantage of such technological advancement.4 The definitions of heavy-duty trucks,medium duty trucks and cargo van

168、s shown in the figure are those given by CALSTART.20Just Transition to Zero-emission Trucking in IndiaFigure 11.Range of battery electric trucksAll Range,Battery Electric(kWh)Energy Capacity and Payload501 001 50200250300350400450500550600650700750800850Range(km)501 001 50200250300350400450500Range(

169、mi)02004006008001 000Energy Capacity forScaniaTeslaVolvoLionNikolaBYDLionQuantronVolvoMackLionLionFarizonShacmanBlue ArcBYDOrtenJACFotonFeidiDesignwerkLiebherrPVIVolvoBattle MotorsMedianMedianMedianMedianMedianMedianVehicle TypeHD TruckMD TruckMD Step VanCargo VanOtherTruck Payload440200004000064000

170、Select Payload UnitkglbsBattery Electric(kWh)Source:(CALSTART,2023)3.4 EFFECTS ON DEALERS AND SUPPLIERSDealerships,which are responsible for vehicle sales and services,also manage local product promotion and last-mile delivery.Dealerships,which are well-equipped to handle sales and services for ICE

171、trucks,will have to update their knowledge and skills for ZETs.This will particularly affect the services aspect of the business,which will involve handling software,electronic hardware,and battery-related issues.Like truck manufacturers,dealerships must invest in training to minimize the impacts of

172、 this transition.Auto component suppliers who support OEMs in research,development,and manufacturing currently focus on ICE components and must adapt to ZETs by diversifying into electric powertrain components,which requires significant changes in approach and business models.While the transition po

173、ses challenges for OEMs,it also presents opportunities for their partners in the supply chain.3.5 EFFECTS ON GOVERNMENTS AND UTILITIESShifting Indias transportation energy demand from petrol and diesel to the more diverse sources that power the countrys electricity grid will make the economy less vu

174、lnerable to oil-related geopolitical risk and oil price shocks.It would also help reduce foreign exchange outflow given that India imported around 85%of its crude oil(212.5 million tonnes)and 19 million metric tonnes of liquefied natural gas in FY 2023(Petroleum Planning&Analysis Cell,2024).As the c

175、ommercial vehicle fleet increasingly transitions to ZETs,the economic benefits of this shift will grow over time.Indias OMCs have the potential to establish battery-charging or swapping stations at fuel stations to augment their current operations.Just Transition to Zero-emission Trucking in India21

176、A reduction in tax revenue of up to 15%is predicted if EVs capture 30%of sales by 2030(CEEW,2020).The government requires a long-term strategy to raise resources,diversify revenue sources and reduce dependence on fossil fuel taxes.Power distribution companies(DISCOMs)are in a unique position to both

177、 leverage and drive this transition.Given the high voltage requirements of ZET charging stations,DISCOMs can play a key role in the deployment of charging stations through various DISCOM-centric business models.The government can play an enabling role in promoting ZETs by allowing DISCOMs to pass th

178、rough charging infrastructure costs.22Just Transition to Zero-emission Trucking in India4.INTERVENTIONS BY THE GOVERNMENT TO ENSURE A JUST TRANSITIONThe twin government interventions for a just transition to ZETs are skilling support and financing support.Jobs in the organized sector and some indire

179、ct jobs in the unorganized sector require skilling support to switch from ICE to ZET manufacturing,maintenance,and repair.Induced jobs in the unorganized sector require financing support in the form of grants or low-cost debt to switch livelihoods.The key challenge for policymakers in effecting a ju

180、st transition is in the unorganized sector and for induced jobs.While stakeholders in these jobs will be the most impacted by the transition,their geographical dispersal and the lack of data on them makes it challenging for policymakers to support them effectively.This section explores the twin appr

181、oaches to making the transition just and provides recommendations for the same.A Just Transition Fund for India is proposed for funding reskilling initiatives and for financing alternative livelihoods for engendering a just transition.4.1 RESKILLING OF IMPACTED STAKEHOLDERS The transition from ICE t

182、rucks to ZETs has the potential to exacerbate existing socio-economic challenges unless the principles of just transition are firmly incorporated,given the potential for job losses across the trucking industrys value chain.Reskilling and upskilling for a just transition will require leveraging India

183、s skill development ecosystem.It is crucial to take stock of the skill set of workers in the existing value chain and the skills required for the ensuing ZET value chain.A gap analysis is fundamental to formulating appropriate strategies for skilling and reskilling.In addition,improving skills withi

184、n the informal sector involves addressing challenges such as access to affordable training,ensuring that training programs align with the needs of the informal economy,and overcoming societal and structural barriers that prevent participation in these initiatives.Adequate skilling and access to capi

185、tal can provide significant opportunities.It can enable informal sector workers to leverage entrepreneurial opportunities related to ZET battery swapping,waste management,and recycling.With the right support,retail shops and restaurants near trucking clusters can leverage the opportunity to become p

186、otential battery charging facilities.Just Transition to Zero-emission Trucking in India23SKILL DEVELOPMENT FRAMEWORK AND TRAINING MODELSAs outlined in Section 3,there are about 8 million direct jobs,9.4 million indirect jobs and 4 million induced jobs in the trucking industry.Many of these indirect

187、jobs,especially those associated with the ICE powertrain and electronics,will be impacted by the transition to ZETs.However,these are largely formal sector jobs and their workers can be reskilled to work in the ZET value chain.Box 2 highlights an example of how the organized sector can enable skilli

188、ng in a structured manner.Box 2.Case study-addressing the skill gap in the formal sectorAequs Private Limited is a specialized contract manufacturer operating across the automotive,aerospace,and consumer goods sectors.The aerospace industry has exacting quality requirements that demand a highly skil

189、led workforce.To address this,Aequs takes a structured skilling approach that combines classroom and practical training to quickly train skilled aerospace technicians.Aequss Industrial Knowledge Centre provides a structured 30-month training program for fresh engineering graduates.The program is tai

190、lored to enhance technical,behavioral,and leadership skills.It includes rigorous instructor-led training and practical,on-the-job learning,ensuring employees master current technologies and processes.Regular skill assessments help refine this training to keep it relevant to industry needs(Aequs,2023

191、).Aequs faced several challenges in integrating academic curricula with practical training.Firstly,aligning classroom theory with the specific technical skills required in aerospace manufacturing operations is complex,requiring constant curriculum updates.Secondly,logistical coordination between edu

192、cational programs and manufacturing schedules is critical to ensure seamless training without disrupting production.Lastly,maintaining quality training that meets industry-specific standards demands ongoing updates and evaluation of content and pedagogy to ensure a productive,agile feedback loop.Aeq

193、us has partnered with Medhavi Skills University and the National Skill Development Corporation(NSDC)to create an innovative Learn&Earn model,integrating academic studies with practical training.This is designed to provide students with real-world experience at the manufacturing facilities of Aequs,w

194、hile they complete their academic courses in aerospace manufacturing technology,supported by apprenticeship modules from NSDC.Source:media reports and company websiteThe most vulnerable workers will be those in indirect jobs such as informal sector service mechanics.Box 3 highlights how skilling can

195、 be provided for informal sector participants by highlighting the case of skilling CNG technicians in Delhi.24Just Transition to Zero-emission Trucking in IndiaBox 3.Case study-addressing the skill gap in the informal sector In response to increasing pollution from diesel-based transport,Delhi pione

196、ered the transition to CNG for public transportation.This not only improved air quality but also spurred a new labor market focused on CNG technology.The shift to CNG vehicles caused an acute shortage of mechanics trained in the technology.This skill gap was highlighted by several adverse incidents,

197、including fires in CNG buses due to inadequate maintenance.The existing training infrastructure struggled to keep pace with demand,compounded by the inadequacies in the quality of informal training centers.The approach to bridging this skill gap was multipronged.Initially,vehicle manufacturers assum

198、ed the responsibility of maintaining the new CNG fleets under long-term contracts.This provided a temporary solution but underscored the need for reskilling a larger workforce across the value chain.Enhancements in formal training programs within companies and the introduction of public-private part

199、nerships for training informal sector workers were pivotal in ensuring that the transition was supported by a capable and well-trained workforce.To address the growing need for skilled CNG technicians,a combination of formal and informal training methods has been employed.Industrial Training Institu

200、tes in the National Capital Region have adapted their curricula to include specialized training for CNG mechanics.However,the traditional entry requirements based on formal education attainment have proven an entry barrier for many mechanics.Adjusting these criteria to value practical skills and exp

201、erience over formal education could make the training more accessible and relevant for informal sector workers.Source:media reports and stakeholder consultationsBroadly,there are three skilling models available to help address the skill gap-government-sponsored,market-led,and private sector-led(Figu

202、re 12).Skilling programs funded by central and state governments can be led through bodies like National Skill Development Corporation(NSDC)and State Skill Development Missions.Market-led programs are demand-driven and are offered for a fee to interested candidates and organizations.Private sector-l

203、ed programs include those run by OEMs themselves for their workforce or those programs which are funded under corporate social responsibility(CSR)by the company.Just Transition to Zero-emission Trucking in India25Figure 12.Skilling models and schemes based on nature of jobsPMKVY STT&RPLPMKVY STT;NAP

204、S;DDU-GKYFee-based trainingCSR;OJTCSR;OJTMarket-ledPrivate sectorGovernment-sponsoredDDU-GKY;Skilling programs ofered by other sector skill councils-Tourism&Hospitality and Retail sector.Direct(Truck drivers,assistants&fleet owners)Indirect(manufacturing jobs,service jobs and fuel stations)Induced(l

205、ocal restaurants,hotels,retail stores,etc.)Source:Media reports and government websitesGOVERNMENT-SPONSORED SKILLINGGovernment-sponsored programs play an important role where training providers cater to people who cannot otherwise afford the skilling programs.Existing programs can be leveraged to pr

206、ovide training for the ZET transition.The Pradhan Mantri Kaushal Vikas Yojana(PMKVY)aims to enable Indian youth to acquire industry-relevant skills,thereby facilitating formal employment.The National Apprenticeship Promotion Scheme(NAPS)promotes apprenticeships supported by financial incentives and

207、technological and advocacy support.The Logistics Sector Skill Council(LSC)has introduced apprenticeship-embedded higher education programs,which provide a combination of academic study and practical apprenticeship opportunities under the NAPS.Deen Dayal Upadhyay Grameen Kaushal Yojana(DDU-GKY)offers

208、 placement-linked skilling programs in rural areas.The socially inclusive design of DDU-GKY ensures a focus on socially disadvantaged groups.This can enhance the technical skills of informal sector mechanics in ZET across the length and breadth of India.Incentivizing skilled mechanics in the informa

209、l sector to become instructors and mentors can aid in expanding the reach of such training programs.The erstwhile Skill Development Initiative Scheme(SDIS)of the Government of India was one of the first vocational training programs to involve the private sector.Under the SDIS,private players and sma

210、ll garages were offered financial incentives to provide hands-on training to informal sector workers(MSDE,n.d.).Small garages proficient in EV technology and operating in the informal sector can be recognized and incentivized to become training centers for EV mechanics in the informal sector.This wo

211、uld expand the number of training touchpoints for informal sector workers.26Just Transition to Zero-emission Trucking in IndiaMARKET-LED SKILLING The NSDC has launched a scheme for market-led,fee-based skilling to create an enabling ecosystem for skilling through private sector entities under variou

212、s models.It has incentivized private players through funded partnerships(equity,loans,and grants)and non-funded partnerships(leveraging the brand name of the NSDC).Since the scheme is linked to market-based incentives,it may not be the most effective for skilling informal sector mechanics at scale.H

213、owever,it can be leveraged depending on circumstances for training indirect formal sector job holders.PRIVATE SECTOR-LED SKILLINGSkill development programs can also be spearheaded by OEMs and component manufacturers,thereby training unorganized sector mechanics to be certified service technicians.Fo

214、r example,Hero Electric partnered with ReadyAssist,a roadside assistance company,to train and upskill 20,000 mechanics in servicing electric two-wheelers(Hero Electric,2022).The effective implementation of such programs requires a collaborative approach involving many stakeholders.Public-private par

215、tnership(PPP)models can leverage the expertise and resources of both the private sector and the government to address reskilling needs effectively.An example of a PPP model in skilling is that of Maruti Suzuki,the industry leader in the passenger car market,which has established the International Au

216、tomotive Centre for Excellence as a joint venture with the Government of Gujarat.This center caters to the skill development of students who have completed schooling or who study in Industrial Training Institutes.It also offers a bachelors program in transportation and mobility.Another example of PP

217、P is that of Ashok Leyland and the Government of Uttarakhand who have signed a memorandum of understanding to facilitate apprenticeships for 1,000 people for three years fostering skill development(Ashok Leyland,2024).The Automotive Skill Development Council(ASDC)can function as a vital cog in the j

218、ust transition process,supported by industry bodies including the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers(SIAM),Automobile Component Manufacturers Association of India(ACMA),and FADA.The ASDC has taken steps to meet the evolving demands of the EV industry by launching programs to train technician

219、s as EV service technicians in partnership with Livguard Batteries(ASDC,2023).The ASDC has also collaborated with Deutsche Gesellschaft fr Internationale Zusammenarbeit to develop a short-term training program for EV technicians (ASDC,2024).It is important to consider these training initiatives in t

220、he broader context of the trucking industry,which is largely unorganized.This presents challenges and opportunities in implementing comprehensive training and upskilling programs .The opportunities include improving competitiveness of the industry by using this transition as a pivot for investing mo

221、re in skilling,building a broader ecosystem of skilling and connecting multiple initiatives by varied stakeholders.However,certain stakeholders in the ZET transition have requirements that cannot be met by skilling.Expansion of skilling and support for those stakeholder groups whose needs cannot be

222、met by skilling will require funding.The government can create a Just Transition Fund for India to meet these objectives.Just Transition to Zero-emission Trucking in India274.2 STRUCTURING A JUST TRANSITION FUND FOR INDIASkilling initiatives for engendering a just transition require funding.Induced

223、job holders who have a marginal existence in trucking clusters will require financial support in the form of grants or low-cost loans to transition to alternative livelihoods.The policy response for such funding needs would be for the government to capitalize a fund to engender a just transition.A d

224、esign for a Just Transition Fund for India(JTFI)is provided in Figure 13.The proposed fund would focus both on skilling and financial support for impacted stakeholders.The Ministry of Skill Development and Entrepreneurship is ideally positioned to administer the fund,which can be deployed under the

225、existing schemes of the government.A broad estimate of the size of the fund is INR 254 billion(USD 3.1 billion)1(see Annexure 4).It could be capitalized via the central government budget but could be open to fundraising from other sources such as CSR funds,as well as from multilateral development ba

226、nks,development finance institutions,and development agencies.The fund allocation would support relevant government schemes which can then reach the ultimate beneficiaries.A steering committee comprising the MSDE and other relevant ministries could oversee the fund from a sectoral and just transitio

227、n perspective to ensure optimal allocation.This committee would also monitor key performance indicators of the fund to ensure that its just transition objectives are met.The co-benefits of the transition such as its effects on health,society and the environment can also be monitored.The design also

228、provides flexibility for the funds to be allocated for relevant government schemes and to modify allocation when those schemes are terminated or modified.Figure 13.Design of a Just Transition FundJust Transition Fund for IndiaGovernment budgetary allocationMDB fundingOther sources of fundingSchemes

229、which focus on social benefitsAdministered by MSDE,supervised by a steering committee comprising relevant ministriesSchemes which focus on skillingGrantsSource:CPI analysis28Just Transition to Zero-emission Trucking in IndiaGlobally,there are examples of funds dedicated to a just transition.Box 4 ex

230、plains the structure of one such fund the EU Just Transition Fund which has been structured to incorporate multiple sources of funding and address the just transition needs of multiple stakeholders and industries.Box 4.The EU Just Transition FundConsidering the EUs commitment to achieving net zero G

231、HG emissions by 2050,the EU Just Transition Mechanism seeks to alleviate socio-economic impacts in regions reliant on carbon-intensive industries by promoting economic diversification and revitalization.The Mechanism has three pillars:the Just Transition Fund(JTF),Invest EU,and the Public Sector Loa

232、n Facility,with an overall financial package of at least EUR 100 billion from 2021 to 2027(European Commission,2020)Just Transition MechanismTo support and finance people and countries in the EU facing challenges due to the greentransitionPILLAR 1Just Transition Fundwill mobilizeinvestments in SMEs,

233、R&D,environmentalrehabilitation,clean energy,up/reskilling of workers,and transformation of existing carbon-intensive installations when theseinvestments lead to substantial emission cuts and job losses.EUR 7.5 billionunder the EUs 2021-27 budget supplemented by national co-financing EUR 10 billionf

234、rom the European Recovery Instrument Voluntary contributions by member states fromtheirEuropean Regional Development Fund&European Social Fund Plus allocationsPILLAR 2InvestEU Fund the EUs EUR 26.2 Bn budget guarantee program-will provide budgetary guarantee to financial institutions for a wide rang

235、e of infrastructureprojects.TheInvestEU Advisory Hub will provide technical assistance for projects under pillars 2 and 3 of the JTM.PILLAR 3Public Sector Loan facilitycombines EUR 1.5 Bn grants from the EUbudget andEUR 10 Bn loansfrom the EuropeanInvestment Bank to mobilize public investments.The J

236、TF strives to ensure a socially fair and equitable clean energy transition(Leppnen&Liefferink,2022).The JTF,initiated in 2021,will remain operational until 2027 with a total budget of EUR 17.5 billion.It encompasses 15 activities,including backing sustainable investments in technology and enterprise

237、s such as support for microenterprises,sustainable tourism,low-emission district heating,and energy storage technologies.It also supports socio-cultural projects addressing energy poverty,culture,education,and community building(EPRC,2021).The fund also aims to mitigate the socio-economic costs asso

238、ciated with the energy transition by focusing on environmental restoration,upskilling,and reskilling,and fostering job creation.This includes targeted programs and job-search assistance for affected workers in emerging sectors.The fund is expected to mobilize nearly EUR 30 billion in investments(WRI

239、,2021).Just Transition to Zero-emission Trucking in India29The allocation to member states is based on five socio-economic criteria,including industrial GHG emissions,employment in industries located in regions with low carbon intensity,employment in coal and lignite mining,peat production,and oil s

240、hale and oil sands production(EPRC,2021).The EU budgetary spending on the JTF will be complemented by national co-financing.(European Commission,2021).The JTF plays a pivotal role in the European Green Deal and represents a significant step towards addressing the socio-economic challenges of transit

241、ioning to a low-carbon economy.The proposed JTFI could cover the reskilling needs of the formal and informal sectors in the trucking industry by providing grants to relevant government schemes(e.g.,the PMKVY)and departments(such as the ASDC).Mechanisms can be evolved for ring-fencing funding to ensu

242、re that it is used primarily to engender a just transition in the trucking sector.For those highly vulnerable stakeholders who cannot benefit from reskilling(induced jobs which are primarily in the informal sector),the fund could provide grants to various government schemes such as the MUDRA loan sc

243、heme.The ultimate beneficiaries could receive funds in the form of grants or concessional loans.In the case of the latter,the grants from the fund can be blended with other sources of debt to achieve concessional interest rates.30Just Transition to Zero-emission Trucking in India5.CONCLUSION AND NEX

244、T STEPSFor effecting a just transition to ZETs,both skilling,and financing are critical to ensure adequate skills in the labor force and the development of alternative livelihoods.This report quantifies the implications of a just transition to zero-emission trucking in India.It lays the groundwork f

245、or calculating socio-economic costs and investment requirements for engendering a just transition in line with Indias climate related targets.The next step for enabling a just transition in this sector could be to identify impacted stakeholders and understand their needs in greater detail.This can b

246、e followed by the design of targeted policy responses,financial instruments and other mechanisms to address their needs and to enable co-benefits.Obtaining stakeholder feedback can help get their buy-in by helping them recognize the benefits of such interventions in the face of the challenges they f

247、ace due to the transition.Pilot programs can be conducted to help refine the design of these interventions.The just transition financing facility can then be designed to act as a conduit for the flow of finance for a just transition.Just Transition to Zero-emission Trucking in India31ANNEXURESANNEXU

248、RE 1:VEHICLE CATEGORIZATIONThere are multiple methods of categorizing trucks including the Ministry of Road Transport and Highways(MoRTH)and Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers(SIAM)classifications.Commercial vehicles,as categorized by MoRTH,are divided into two main groups:transport and non-

249、transport.Transport vehicles,primarily designed for commercial purposes,encompass freight vehicles like multi-axle/articulated vehicles,trucks,lorries,and light commercial vehicles.Vehicles such as tractors and trailers are in the non-transport category,despite their use in transporting goods such a

250、s construction materials and agricultural produce.Within the transport vehicle category,multi-axle/articulated vehicles,trucks,and lorries are further classified as medium or heavy commercial vehicles(M/HDVs)based on their tonnage and gross vehicle weight(GVW).Category N encompasses all power-driven

251、 vehicles with at least four wheels used for the carriage of goods.These vehicle categories are laid out in Table A1 below.Table A1.MoRTH categorization of trucksSegmentGVW range,in tonnesCategoryPrefixesLCVGVW 3.5N1N1AMDV3.5 GVW 7.5N2N2A7.5 GVW 12N2N2BHDV12 GVW 18.5N3 2 Axle RigidN3A18.5 GVW 28N3 M

252、ulti Axle RigidN3B28 GVW 49N3 Multi Axle RigidN3C30 GVW 55N3 TractorN3DSource:AIS-017(Part 6)/D5 Apr 2019 and MoRTHGlobally,there is no universal definition of truck categories.In the EU,distinctions like N2(vehicles weighing more than 3.5 tons)and N3(vehicles weighing more than 16 tons)are employed

253、,while China commonly classifies vehicles as light-duty(3.5-7.5 tons),medium-duty(7.5-12 tons),and heavy-duty(more than 12 tons)(GIZ,2020).In this report,the MoRTH segment categorization is followed.32Just Transition to Zero-emission Trucking in IndiaANNEXURE 2:TRUCKING CLUSTERS AND SURVEY METHODOLO

254、GYA survey was conducted at 10 major trucking clusters across India,as listed in Table A2.The survey sites include five types of use cases:inland container depot(ICD),port,agri mandi(wholesale market),truck terminal,and transport nagar.Table A2.Survey locations#SITELOCATIONUSE-CATEGORY1ICD Tughlaqab

255、adDelhiICD2MIHANNagpurICD3Azadpur MandiDelhiAgri Mandi4Koyambedu MarketChennaiAgri Mandi5JNPTMumbaiPort6Haldia PortKolkataPort7D Devraj Urs Truck Terminal YeshavntapuraBengaluruTruck terminal8Jagatpur Truck TerminalCuttackTruck terminal9Madhavaram Truck TerminalChennaiTruck terminal10Sanjay Gandhi T

256、ransport NagarDelhiTruck Terminal+Truck Building ClusterThe survey methodology is summarized in Figure A1.First,a reconnaissance survey was conducted at sites to map sampled locations.These include off-and on-street truck parking areas and establishments(e.g.,warehouses,workshops,restaurants,shops,s

257、treet vendors,etc.)where drivers spend money either to get truck-related work done or for personal consumption(e.g.,food,clothes,water,tea,sweets,medicine).Figure A1.Survey methodologyDirect jobsIndirect+induced jobsFinalization of questionnaireMapping of sample capturing spotsReconnaissance surveyI

258、nception of workUse case locations surveyEstimated total number of trucks in a dayNumber of direct jobs(drivers+helpers)No.of workers in establishments(indirect,induced)Ratio of direct jobs to indirect jobsRatio of direct jobs to induced jobsAverage waiting timeTotal tonnage handled per dayTruck ope

259、rator detailsTruck detailsTruck operation detailsEstablishment typeWorkers in establishmentsIncome of workersSite visit for surveyTrucking Survey QuestionnaireJust Transition to Zero-emission Trucking in India33QUESTIONNAIRE DESIGNThe trucking survey questionnaire was prepared in two sections to enc

260、ompass three categories of employment:direct,indirect,and induced.An extensive literature review was conducted on these employment types to establish precise definitions for the project.Direct Jobs(for drivers):The direct jobs survey includes questions for drivers on details of their truck operator,

261、truck,and its operations(Table A3).Table A3.Information gathered and output in the survey of direct jobsS.No.Input received from surveyOutput 1Gross Vehicle Weight of truckTruck GVW(tonnes)2Daily distance covered by truckAverage km covered per day(by truck type)3Salary of driver Average income of dr

262、iver(INR per month)4Salary of helper Average income of helper(INR per month)5Waiting hoursTypical time of stay at locationIndirect and induced jobs(for establishments):The establishment survey includes questions on establishment type,enterprise sub-category,scale of establishment,skill and range of

263、education level of workers,workers in establishments,income of workers and estimated number of establishments at the activity location.This provided the outputs shown in Table A4.Table A4.Information gathered and output in the survey of establishmentsS.No.Input received from survey Output 1Enterpris

264、e sub-categoryEstablishments activities description2Estimated number of establishments at the activity locationEstimated total number of establishments3Number of workers(total&full time)Estimated number of workers in establishmentsEstimated percentage of full-time workers4Average annual/monthly inco

265、me of workers(INR)Average income of workers(INR per month)in establishments5Total number of workers/total estimated number of establishmentsNumber of workers per establishmentThe direct jobs survey and establishment survey provided information on the number of direct,(informal)indirect and induced j

266、obs in these trucking clusters.Using this data,subsequent calculations are made to arrive at the ratio between direct and indirect jobs and direct and induced jobs.34Just Transition to Zero-emission Trucking in IndiaANNEXURE 3:METHODOLOGY FOR ZET FORECASTSCENARIOSThe ZET forecast has been derived co

267、nsidering two scenarios.Scenario 1 considers a business-as-usual trajectory with no major policies introduced to improve ZET penetration.Scenario 2 considers an ambitious trajectory with sector-specific policies in line with the governments net-zero and climate targets.PERIOD OF ANALYSISThe period o

268、f analysis for this exercise is from FY 2024 to FY 2040.Three growth periods have been built within the timeframe of the sales forecast with 2030,2035 and 2040 being assumed as the tipping points,and have been termed as Current Policy phase(FY 2024 to FY 2030),Growth Phase 1(FY 2031 to FY 2035)and G

269、rowth Phase 2(FY 2036 to FY 2040).While the sales between FY 2024 and FY 2030 are assumed to be driven solely due to current policies of the government,there is a multiplier effect in the period beyond 2030 due to factors such as reduced TCO due to reducing battery prices and improvement in cell che

270、mistries.In addition,rising diesel prices will have a positive impact on ZET sales once TCO parity is achieved for trucks.VEHICLE SEGMENTSThe analysis has been performed for Light Commercial Vehicles(LCVs),Medium Duty Vehicles(MDVs),and Heavy-Duty Vehicles(HDVs).DRIVERS OF GROWTH Cost of Battery:The

271、 cost of lithium-ion batteries is forecasted to come down from USD 139 in 2023 to about USD 85/kWh in 2030 and USD 59/kWh in 2040.Just Transition to Zero-emission Trucking in India35Figure A2.Historical and projected cost of Li-ion battery packsActualProjected0100200300400500600700800900FY13FY14FY15

272、FY16FY17FY18FY19FY20FY21FY22FY23FY24FY25FY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35FY36FY37FY38FY39FY40USD/kWhSource:(BloombergNEF,2023),CPI Analysis Diesel Price:The average growth rate of diesel price in India is estimated to be 6.37%between FY 2014 and FY 2023 and this is anticipated to increase dur

273、ing the analysis period.Figure A3.Diesel prices(INR/liter)51.9753.3847.0153.2458.8068.2265.7873.5887.4290.580204060801002014201520162017201820192020202120222023Source:PPAC36Just Transition to Zero-emission Trucking in IndiaAPPROACHAssessment of baseline sales of all trucksLong-term forecast of sales

274、 of all trucksEstimating the share of ZETs in truck salesForecasted ZET salesThe sales data of trucks in India have been compiled from primary data from FADA.As the historical data for segment-wise sales of trucks in the state of Telangana is not available in the public domain,the same was estimated

275、 and pro-rated to the truck sales data at the national level.Industrial and manufacturing activities play a vital role in the growth of the truck market in India.The sales projection until FY 2040 has been done using the CAGR of the Index of Industrial Production(IIP)from FY 2014 to FY 2023(Table A5

276、).The IIP of different goods has been considered for the three segments based on the respective use cases.For LCVs,the IIP of non-durable consumer goods has been considered owing to the predominant use of LCVs in last-mile deliveries of fast-moving consumer goods and consumable goods associated with

277、 e-commerce.For M/HDVs,the IIP of intermediate goods(B2B deliveries),infrastructure and construction goods has been considered to project the sales until FY 2040.Table A5.The growth rate of sales in truck segmentsSegmentFY15-FY23(CAGR)FY24-FY40(CAGR projection based on IIP)Truck4.54%3.52%LCV 4.68%3.

278、33%MDV 5.70%3.81%HDV 4.05%3.81%The inputs shown in Table A6 have been factored in the baseline truck sales numbers to arrive at the forecasted ZET sales in each of the analysis intervals.Just Transition to Zero-emission Trucking in India37Table A6.Inputs for baseline ZET sales numbersDriver inputsSc

279、enarioVehicle segmentCurrent policy (FY24-FY30)Growth phase 1 (FY31-FY35)Growth phase 2(FY36-FY40)Target rate of sales by end of period(Rt)1LCV5%10%20%M/HDV1.5%3%6%2LCV10%15%25%M/HDV3%6%12%Battery multiplier(Mb)1,2All00.20.1Diesel multiplier(Md)1,2All00.230.23Formula for calculating the forecasted s

280、ales:SF=(SB*Rt)x(1+Mb+Md)Where,SF =forecasted sales for the fiscal yearSB=baseline forecasted sales for fiscal yearRt=target rate of sales by the end of periodMb=multiplier for incremental sales due to decline in battery pricesMd=multiplier for incremental sales due to an increase in diesel price38J

281、ust Transition to Zero-emission Trucking in IndiaANNEXURE 4:ESTIMATE OF THE SIZE OF THE PROPOSED JUST TRANSITION FUND FOR INDIAThere are an estimated 9.4 million indirect jobs in the trucking sector,of which the informal sector accounts for around 5.6 million and the formal sector for 3.8 million.It

282、 is estimated that 63%of the automotive workforce will be impacted by the transition(CEEW,2019).Assuming the cost of reskilling per worker in the formal sector is INR 50,000(USD 602)1 and that in the informal sector is INR15,000(USD 181)1,if 50%of the indirect jobs are impacted by the transition,the

283、 cost of reskilling would be INR 137 billion(USD 1.65 billion)1(Table A7).Table A7.Cost of reskilling of indirect job holdersPercentage of indirect jobs impacted by ZET transition50%60%70%80%Cost of reskilling of impacted workers in the formal sector(in INR billion)95114133152Cost of reskilling of i

284、mpacted workers in the informal sector(in INR billion)42505967Total cost of reskilling for impacted indirect job holders(in INR billion)137164192219The number of induced jobs related to the trucking sector is estimated at around 4 million.If we assume a 50%split between individual jobs(proprietorshi

285、ps)and small businesses,which employ three people on average,this leads to 2 million individual proprietors and 0.67 million small businesses.Assuming the individual proprietorships avail INR 50,000(USD 602)1 in loans on average and small businesses avail INR 200,000(USD 2,410)1 in loans on average

286、under the MUDRA scheme,Table A8 provides an estimate of the quantum of loans required for induced job holders to ensure they establish alternative livelihoods.Table A8.Quantum of loans for impacted induced job holdersPercentage of induced jobs that will be impacted by the transition50%60%70%80%Amoun

287、t of loan that would be required by individuals(in INR billion)50 60 70 80 Amount of loan that would be required by small enterprises(in INR billion)67 80 93 107 Total loan amount required by impacted induced job holders(in INR billion)117 140 163 187 Assuming that 50%of indirect job holders and 50%

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