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1、ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANKQUALITY JOBS AND THE FUTURE OF WORK IN ASIA AND THE PACIFICIMPACTS OF A TRIPLE TRANSITION DEMOGRAPHIC,DIGITAL,AND GREEN SEPTEMBER 2024ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANKQUALITY JOBS AND THE FUTURE OF WORK IN ASIA AND THE PACIFICIMPACTS OF A TRIPLE TRANSITION DEMOGRAPHIC,DIGITAL,AND GREEN SE

2、PTEMBER 2024Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license(CC BY 3.0 IGO)2024 Asian Development Bank6 ADB Avenue,Mandaluyong City,1550 Metro Manila,PhilippinesTel+63 2 8632 4444;Fax+63 2 8636 2444www.adb.orgSome rights reserved.Published in 2024.ISBN 978-92-9270-892-4(print);978-92-9270-893-1(PDF);978

3、-92-9270-894-8(ebook)Publication Stock No.TCS240444-2DOI:http:/dx.doi.org/10.22617/TCS240444-2The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views and policies ofthe Asian Development Bank(ADB)or its Board of Governors or the governments they repr

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6、bution 3.0 IGO license(CC BY 3.0 IGO)https:/creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/.By using the content of this publication,you agree to be bound bytheterms of this license.For attribution,translations,adaptations,and permissions,please read the provisions andterms of use at https:/www.adb.org/ter

7、ms-use#openaccess.This CC license does not apply to non-ADB copyright materials in this publication.If the material is attributed toanother source,please contact the copyright owner or publisher of that source for permission to reproduce it.ADB cannot be held liable for any claims that arise as a re

8、sult of your use of the material.Please contact pubsmarketingadb.org if you have questions or comments with respect to content,or if you wish toobtain copyright permission for your intended use that does not fall within these terms,or for permission to use theADB logo.Corrigenda to ADB publications

9、may be found at http:/www.adb.org/publications/corrigenda.Notes:In this publication,“$”refers to United States dollars.ADB recognizes“Korean”as referring to the Republic of Korea and“Vietnam”as Viet Nam.Cover design by Cleone Flores Baradas.ContentsTables,Figures,and Boxes ivAcknowledgments vAbbrevi

10、ations viExecutive Summary vii1 Introduction 12 Effects of Megatrends on Job Creation and Job Quality 3A Triple Transition 3Job Quantity and Labor Demand 6Job Quality and Skills 21Job Structures and Social Protection 26Confluence:The Effects of Intersections 313 Policy Considerations 33The Role of P

11、olicy and Markets 33An Intersectional Policy Approach 35The Context Effect 394 Conclusion 41References 42Tables,Figures,and BoxesTables1 Demographic Trends in Association of Southeast Asian Nations+6 Countries 92 Overview of Changes to Demand for Skills Resulting from the Triple Transition 223 Key L

12、inkages Between Megatrends Affecting Labor Demand 324 Individuals Readiness for the Digital EconomyNetwork Readiness Index 38 People Ranking of Highest-and Lowest-Performing Economies in the RegionFigures1 Median Age of the Labor Force in Selected Asia and Pacific Countries,6 1990,2000,2010,2020,and

13、 20302 Share of Population Aged 014,1564,and 65 and Above in Asia and the Pacific,19502097(Projected)83 Mobile Internet Connectivity in East Asia and the Pacific,20172022 104 Economic Losses from Climate Change in Developing Asia Under a High-Emissions Scenario by 2100 175 Working Hours Lost to Heat

14、 Stress,By Sector and By Sub-Region,Asia and the Pacific,21 1995 and 2030(Projections)6 Availability of Digital Human Capital,by CountryIncome Grouping,2021 247 Institutional Barriers to Fourth Industrial Revolution Training Delivery and Curricula 25 UpdatingResults of an ADB-Commissioned Survey in

15、Bangladesh,Georgia,and Indonesia8 Labor Productivity and Social Protection Expenditure,Selected Countries,2019 279 Share of Population 65 and Above Still in the Labor Force By Gender,Selected Economies,2021 2810 A Framework for Adaptive Social Protection to Strengthen Livelihoods Resilience 3011 Tec

16、hnology Adoption by Log Gross Domestic Product for Selected Countries,2021 40Boxes1 Growth,Jobs,and Productivity 22 The Economies of the Triple Transition in Asia and the Pacific 43 Definitions of Digital Jobs 114 Gig Work Preferences Among Youth and Employers in Three Asian Economies 15 Results of

17、an ADB-Commissioned Survey5 Definitions of Green Jobs 186 Extending Social Protection Coverage to Self-Employed Gig Workers 297 Skilling and Social Protection for the Triple Transition 34AcknowledgmentsThis report was prepared as part of the work program of the Social Development Team,Human and Soci

18、al Development Sector Office,Sectors Group(SG-HSD)of the Asian Development Bank(ADB).It was funded under ADB regional technical assistance,Quality Jobs and the Future of Work,which aims to strengthen the capacity of developing member countries to facilitate access to quality jobs through new directi

19、ons for social protection in labor markets,and effective approaches for skills development and job facilitation.Helen Osborne,SG-HSD consultant,was lead author of the final report.PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP(PwC),India led the research and produced outputs that formed the basis of this report.Duncan

20、Campbell,SG-HSD consultant,contributed to the analysis presented in this report.Peer review was by Paul Vandenberg,principal economist,Economic Research and Development Impact Department,ADB.Oleksiy(Alex)Ivaschenko,senior social protection and jobs specialist,SG-HSD,oversaw the project and provided

21、review and guidance for the report,with the support and overall supervision of Wendy Walker,director,SG-HSD.AbbreviationsADB Asian Development BankAI artificial intelligenceASEAN Association of Southeast Asian NationsGDP gross domestic productGHG greenhouse gasICT information and communication techn

22、ologyILO International Labour OrganizationIMF International Monetary FundLTC long-term careOECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and DevelopmentPRC Peoples Republic of ChinaPwC PricewaterhouseCoopersUNESCAP United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the PacificWEF World Economi

23、c ForumExecutive SummaryThe structures of production and consumption are being reshaped through the transformative effects of various“megatrends,”with major implications for jobs.Three megatrends are the subject of this study:(i)aging and demographic transition,(ii)Fourth Industrial Revolution and d

24、igital transition,and(iii)climate change and green transition.In Asia and the Pacific,the nature of this“triple transition”is distinct.While the megatrends are simultaneous,they are occurring in the region at different speeds and from different starting points across geographies.This report assesses

25、 the effects of the three megatrends on job creation and job quality in Asia and the Pacific.The main focus is on labor demand.Job quality is confined to two dimensions:skill endowment and social protection coverage.The report aims to strengthen the policy focus on the critical intersection of megat

26、rends to guide a more integrated approach to policymaking for the triple transition.Labor Demand and Demographic TransitionChanging population structures affect demand in the care sector.Care dependency ratios in the region are set to almost double,particularly for older persons(aged 65 years and ab

27、ove)in aging economies.More care jobs will be needed.Many are low-wage,informal,and precarious.A particular growth area is in long-term care services(LTC),such as home-based eldercare.In Singapore,a 130%increase in demand for long-term care direct-care workers is projected to 2030 from 2017.As socie

28、ties age,demand is likely to shift from durable goods(such as cars)to services(such as health care)due to consumption preferences of older people.Smaller households use more energy per capita.Households with more children or older people have different resource allocation priorities,for example,the

29、former will tend to prioritize education expenditure.As the median age of the labor force shifts upward,at some point average productivity begins to decline.Output will decline if there are fewer workers not offset by an increase in productivity,and output per capita will decline as the age composit

30、ion of the labor force becomes older and less productive.“Demographic drag”(where labor productivity growth slows down with aging)is greater in emerging than in advanced economies.Labor Demand and Digital TransitionTechnological disruptions lead to a reallocation of workers and jobs,i.e.,greater str

31、uctural labor market churn.Churn rates in the region range from 19%in Hong Kong,China to 30%in Pakistan.The latest digital advancements are affecting jobs differently compared to earlier stages of automation.The future demand for labor cannot be fully known,as technologies continue to evolve and the

32、ir full range of uses is a process of discovery.viiiExecutive SummaryTechnologies that result in job loss but also higher productivity and lower costs may lead to higher job-creating growth in a general equilibrium sense.Furthermore,a digitally networked economy implies a major reduction in transact

33、ion costs,eliminating barriers of time and distance,leading to a more efficient intermediation between labor supply and demand.A 1-percentage-point increase in the digitalization of the Peoples Republic of China(PRC)economy is associated with a 0.3-percentage-point growth in gross domestic product(G

34、DP).Digitalization is also transforming the way people engage with employment,through more gig work.The past decade has seen a fivefold increase in the number of digital labor platforms globally,particularly in redundant web-based and location-based platforms(where tasks are conducted in person in a

35、 specific geographic location,such as taxi driving and domestic work).Gig work is generally performed by young people(aged 35 years or below),six in 10 online gig workers live in smaller cities,and much gig work is informal and unprotected.Labor Demand and Green TransitionJob estimates are net posit

36、ive for climate change mitigation scenarios.They vary depending on modeling parameters.The Asian Development Bank(ADB)estimated the impacts of a$172 billion,five-part green growth strategy that can generate 30 million jobs in Southeast Asia by 2030.Overall,renewable energy technologies are currently

37、 more labor-intensive than fossil fuel technologies.The redistributive job effects of the green transition are significant.The reshaping of labor markets will displace some workers and create new opportunities for others.There can be a temporal lag,with job losses preceding job gains,as well as incr

38、eased spatial and income inequalities.People with lower levels of educational attainment and skills mainly work in polluting jobs.Transitioning from a nongreen to a green job is particularly challenging for all workers.Climate change is itself increasingly a determinant of economic opportunity.If pe

39、ople are already vulnerable,the climate effects compound with other non-climatic stressors of vulnerability,such as poverty,poor health,or weak infrastructure,to disrupt livelihoods.It is estimated that rising temperatures can lead to a global loss of productivity equivalent to 80 million full-time

40、jobs.Job Quality and SkillsThe megatrends imply an upward skill bias in the demand for labor.The likelihood of skill obsolescence increases relative to age.Skills in greatest demand in the medium-term future are a mix of technical skillsrelated to demand in the care,digital,and green economiesand so

41、ft skills.In particular,the nonroutine and cognitive nature of new jobs emphasizes the importance of higher-order cognitive(soft)skills.In digital labor markets,it is increasingly the possession of skills,not qualifications,that matters.Digital skills are of increasing relevance to the economic valu

42、e(at least)of education,with acquisition expanding through alternative,nonformal education channels,such as boot camps.In emerging fields like cybersecurity and robotics,advanced skills are required,but not necessarily advanced degrees,in so-called“new collar”jobs.ixExecutive SummarySkills play an i

43、mportant role in technology adoption,which can affect the pace of transformation through the triple transition.A skills shortage to adapt to changing labor demand creates a brake on the pace of the structural transformation that the changes imply.A key issue in addressing the digital skills shortage

44、 is an“institutional bottleneck”:a skills shortage in teachers and trainers equipped to impart relevant digital skills in demand by employers.Adaptation(“greening”)of existing skill sets appears to be a quantitatively greater skills agenda than the acquisition of entirely new skills focusing on core

45、 green technologies,such as renewable energy.New skills associated with core green technologies will be at the medium or advanced skill level,both for existing and for incoming workers.Skills required for work are constantly changing in line with shifting labor demand.Of existing“core skills”demande

46、d by employers at the high end of the occupational spectrum of employees,44%will change over the next 5 years.Such change means“learnability”becomes a core capability for work,understood as“the ability and willingness to learn to unlearn and relearn.”Job Structures and Social ProtectionSocial protec

47、tion enables economic change to occur.Social protection spending is correlated with increased labor productivity(Figure 8,p.27).Providing resilience speeds a return to growth from socioeconomic shock or structural disruption and at lower social cost.The demographic transition is challenging the solv

48、ency of social protection systems.A decline in new entrants to the labor force in the context of increasing longevity,i.e.,in the relative size of the working-age population,depletes the resources of contributory-based pension systems.Meanwhile,the digital transition generates new categories of work

49、ers that need access to social protection.Traditionally,work has provided security if people are formally employed.If gig workers are self-employed(e.g.,not classified as employees of the platform that mediates their participation in the labor market),access to social protection can only be delivere

50、d through other ways than an employment relationship.Climate change creates new dynamics of livelihood vulnerabilities that need to be met by appropriate social protection.Growing numbers of people in the region will not be able to meet their basic needs without external support.Support to learn and

51、 adopt behaviors and practices that facilitate adaptation toward climate-resilient livelihoods is central to a just transition to a greener economy where no one is left behind.xExecutive SummaryConfluence:The Effects of IntersectionsThe ways the megatrends coexist and overlap ultimately determine th

52、e type and size of their effects.Typically,megatrends are studied in isolation,yet it is their combined effects that will shape the future quantity and quality of jobs.Evidence is limited about the intersections of megatrends,which leaves uncertainty for governments in costbenefit planning.The repor

53、t maps some key linkages between megatrends,as discussed in the literature.These linkages are focused on labor demand,per the main variable of interest in this study.Examples are set out in the following table:Table:Examples of Linkages Between Megatrends Affecting Labor DemandDemographic transition

54、 Digital transitionAutomation can offset the negative effects of population aging on productivity.Growth in the gig economy increases demand for workers who prioritize flexibility,including younger and older workers.Innovation in health tech for longevity will create and disrupt jobs.Digital transit

55、ion Green transitionDigitalization is a route for less carbon-intensive production,consumption,and work.The transition to renewable energy requires both digital and power electronics technologiesshifting labor demand.Digital innovations can help support climate-vulnerable workers,for example,artific

56、ial intelligence applications for farmers.Green transition Demographic transitionAgingand smaller household sizescontribute to moderately increased energy consumption per capitainducing shifts in labor markets.As populations grow,demand for food increases and consumption preferences can change,with

57、implications for jobs in agriculture(as well as use of natural resources).Climate change makes work conditions more challenging,especially for older(and other vulnerable)workers exposed to increasing heat waves and other stressors.Source:Authors own elaboration.A New Policy ApproachThe effects of me

58、gatrends are not predetermined;the policy agenda is an important determinant of outcomes.Yet,the prevailing agenda is too narrow and siloed.Policy dialogue tends to be mainly built from assessing megatrends separately.It is also centered on skilling and social protection,without enough focus on labo

59、r demand.A new jobs-focused,intersectional policy approach by governments will enable policymaking that maximizes the benefits(and minimizes the risks)from how the megatrends overlap and combine.The job gains from an integrated policy response to megatrends can be significant.Policy design and imple

60、mentation should be flexible to the differentiated diffusion of megatrends and adaptation capacity(or“readiness”)among countries.Such differentiated policymaking requires a new set of composite instruments capable of combining insights from the intersections of megatrends to identify opportunities f

61、or efficiency gains,impact multipliers,and crosscutting interventions.xiExecutive SummaryPolicy ShiftsThe following four policy shifts will help governments adopt a more intersectional policy approach to address the labor market impacts of megatrends:Policy shift 1:Create a jobs-centered approach to

62、 megatrends.Governments need an intentional and coordinated jobs-centered policy agenda for the triple transition.The policy objective should shift from economic growth per se to inclusive and sustainable growth centered on quality jobs for productivity.Policy example:Korean New Deal,2020(New Deal 2

63、.0 updated 2021)Policy shift 2:Strengthen capacity to anticipate changing labor demand.Policy systems and institutions for the triple transition need to be agile and flexible in step with evolving labor market demand.The new normal in policymaking is uncertainty,which calls for anticipatory planning

64、,not least because changes in labor demand lag changes in growth.Policy example:Centre for Strategic Futures,Prime Ministers Office,SingaporePolicy shift 3:Understand distributional impacts of megatrends on people and jobs.The triple transition calls for strengthened policy capabilities in shaping h

65、uman-centered responses.Governments need policy approaches that assess and cater to the highly differentiated experiences of individual workers faced with job disruptions due to megatrends.Policy example:Network Readiness Index,Portulans Institute and University of Oxford Said Business School,global

66、Policy shift 4:Focus on productivity enhancement of informal workers.The success of the policy response to the triple transition should be measured by improvements to the productivity of the majority informal workforce of the region.Without intentional policy action,the effects of the megatrends may

67、 worsen labor underutilization and low productivity.It is important to avoid a reform package that will only benefit more educated workers in the formal labor market.Policy example:Association of Southeast Asian Nations(ASEAN)Labor Productivity Index1IntroductionThe structures of production and cons

68、umption are being reshaped through the transformative effects of various“megatrends,”with major implications for jobs.Three megatrends are the subject of this study:1(i)aging and demographic transition,(ii)Fourth Industrial Revolution and digital transition,and(iii)climate change and green transitio

69、n.In Asia and the Pacific,the nature of these megatrends is distinct compared with other regions,with specific implications for the creation and quality of jobs.2Already in the region,structural weaknesses in labor markets are limiting the economic and social gains from growth.Even before the setbac

70、ks to poverty and inequality precipitated by the coronavirus disease(COVID-19)pandemic,high growth rates were not translating into improved labor market participation and productivity(Box 1).Two-thirds of the regions labor force work informally.Typically,informal work is precarious,with low and irre

71、gular pay,and lacking social protection.This share of informal work is over three times higher on average in the developing and emerging economies of Asia(71%)than in the advanced economies(22%).3 The majority of informal workers are self-employed,yet it is wage employment that is correlated with qu

72、ality work.4Addressing quality jobs deficits is a major policy concern to unlock the regions potential,and the increasing and uncertain impacts that megatrends are having on socioeconomic structures makes the policy response both more pressing and more complex.While there is an opportunity for gover

73、nments and other actors to harness these dynamics to generate more and better jobs,there is growing evidence of the risk that prevailing labor market weaknesses will become further entrenched.In particular,that many future jobs will be informal and precarious.There is growing evidence of the risk th

74、at prevailing labor market weaknesses willbecome further entrenched.In particular,that many future jobs will be informal andprecarious.1 Megatrends are those trends which are disruptive of economic and social norms and structures that portend a secular shift in the status quo;the opposite of a passi

75、ng trend.The Oxford English Dictionary defines a megatrend as“an important shift in the progress of a society or of any other particular field or activity”().2 For example,Asia and the Pacific is aging faster than any other region;Asia is the worlds largest market for industrial robots;and 75%of Asi

76、a and the Pacifics GDP is exposed to climate disruption.3 International Labour Organization(ILO).2022.AsiaPacific Employment and Social Outlook 2022:Rethinking Sectoral Strategies for a Human-Centred Future of Work.https:/www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/-dgreports/-dcomm/-publ/documents/publication

77、/wcms_862410.pdf.4 S.Hovhavnisyan et al.2022.Global Job Quality.World Bank Working Paper 10134.This global study used multiple indic ators to measure job quality and found:“a strong positive correlation between the JQM Job Quality Measure and the share of the wage employed in total employment across

78、 developing countries,indicating that countries with more opportunities for workers to find paid employment perform better in terms of the availability of good jobs than countries with large self-employed or informal worker populations.”Quality Jobs and the Future of Work in Asia and the Pacific2 2T

79、his report assesses the effects of the three megatrends on job creation and job quality in Asia and the Pacific.The main focus is on labor demand.Job quality is confined to two dimensions:skill endowment and social protection coverage.The report aims to strengthen the policy focus on the critical in

80、tersection of megatrends to guide a more integrated approach to policymaking for the triple transition.Typically,megatrends are studied in isolation and recommendations derived accordingly.Highlighting the determining role that policy can play in shaping inclusive and sustainable markets for quality

81、 jobs,the report sets out four policy shifts for governments to consider in their response to megatrends.It emphasizes the need for flexible and differentiated approaches depending on the stage of diffusion of megatrends and adaptation capacity(or“readiness”)among countries.Box 1:Growth,Jobs,and Pro

82、ductivitySince 2015,the economies of Asia and the Pacific have made very limited progress to meet Sustainable Development Goal(SDG)8,which aims to“promote sustained,inclusive and sustainable economic growth,full and productive employment and decent work for all.”a During that time,the region was a m

83、ajor contributor to global growth(57%from 2015 to 2021).b Despite expanding output,corresponding levels of quality jobs have not been created.c The effects of economic growth on the creation of productive employment is not only contingent on the rate of growth,but also on how efficiently growth tran

84、slates into quality jobs.d In turn,this can depend on which sectors employ the most people,and capital-or labor-intensive different sectors are as factors of production.Growth has been employment-poor,for example,in much of Central Asia,or other economies that rely on primary commodity exports for g

85、rowth.These industries are highly capital-intensive and little embedded in the rest of the economy.It is predicted that“the era of global GDP growth fueled by population numbers is coming to an end.”Over the next 40 years,only 9%of growth will come from a population-fueled increase in labor supply,c

86、ompared to a 56%contribution in the period 19752000.e Future growth will rely on productivity increase.This in turn depends on labor quality,not mere factor accumulation.Ultimately,employment and growth benefits are maximized when productivity and incomes of workers are raised.Labor income is the pr

87、incipal component of aggregate demand.Conversely,weak labor markets have compounding negative effects on growth.For example,in the Pacific nations,in general,there are relatively large youth populations,yet constrained domestic labor markets.A lack of viable jobs locally leads to high rates of out-m

88、igration,which puts a downward spiral on earnings,consumption,and growth.a Similarly,low progress has been made in the region on SDGs 6,12,14,and 17.UNESCAP.2023.Asia and the Pacific SDG Progress Report 2023:Championing Sustainability Despite Adversities.https:/www.unescap.org/kp/2023/asia-and-pacif

89、ic-sdg-progress-report-2023.b Seong,J.et al.2023.Asia on the cusp of a new era.Mckinsey Global Institute.22 September.https:/ The relationship between growth and job creation is measured by employment intensity.Employment intensity is the extent job creation increases if an economy expands its outpu

90、t.So,if growth goes up by 1%,the amount of employment growth that results can be measured.Alongside other labor market indicators,such as unemployment rates or employment-to-population ratios,it is another useful measure of the macroeconomic performance of a country.d ILO.Employment-rich Economic Gr

91、owth.https:/www.ilo.org/global/topics/dw4sd/themes/employment-rich/lang-en/index.htm.e A.Mason and R.Lee.2022.Six Ways Population Change Will Affect the Global Economy.Population and Development Review.Vol.48,Issue 1.pp.51-73.https:/ Effects of Megatrends on Job Creation and Job QualityA Triple Tran

92、sitionThis study focuses on three megatrends that will have major and distinct effects on the labor markets of Asia and the Pacific.The region is undergoing a“triple transition”in the form of(i)demographic transition,(ii)digital transition,and(iii)green transition.The demographic transition is chara

93、cterized by diversity in the pace of aging,resulting from improvements in education,technology,and human development;the digital transition by the application of advanced digital technologies,such as machine learning and generative artificial intelligence(AI);and the green transition by a more acute

94、 level of climate change,with rising planetary temperatures and more frequent weather-related shocks.While the megatrends are simultaneous,they are occurring in the region at different speeds and from different starting points across geographies.For example,many Pacific nations have young population

95、s,while most Asian economies are rapidly aging or are already aged.As digitalization accelerates,countries engaged in the advanced gig economy continue to have limited electrification and connectivity in some areas.The very varied natural endowments and topography of countries determine their respec

96、tive climate vulnerability.5The megatrends are transforming socioeconomic structuresthe underlying processes of production and consumption and peoples behaviors within those.Pathways to growth are shifting toward demographic inclusivity,6 digital interconnectivity,and environmental sustainability.Pr

97、oduction and consumption are restructuring to enable healthy longevity,with more focus on social and economic inclusion(demographic transition).General purpose digital technologies are being applied to all areas of economic(e.g.,trade)and social(e.g.,communication)activity,helping to make production

98、 and consumption more connected and efficient(digital transition).Economic and social activity is becoming more sustainable,through low-carbon processes and protection of natural resources(green transition).“Pathways to growth are shifting toward demographic inclusivity,digital interconnectivity,and

99、 environmental sustainability.”5 The three megatrends further interconnect with other prevailing structural socioeconomic dynamics that are both push-and-pull factors of change,such as urbanization,globalization,and migration;as well as short-term disruptions,such as economic shocks and conflicts.6

100、Demographic inclusivity refers to growth that maximizes opportunities for economic inclusion of all people,regardless of vulnerabilities,including age-related.Quality Jobs and the Future of Work in Asia and the Pacific4The shifts in production and consumption influence patterns of job loss and job c

101、reation.New sectors,occupations,roles,and tasks emerge,others become redundant and are destroyed,while many evolve and reorient.In particular,new economic clusters emerge from the megatrends,which change the demand for labor:the care economy,the digital economy,and the green economy(Box 2).In part,n

102、ew growth and employment opportunities are generated through market forces(private);in part,they are initiated and accelerated through policy agendas(public).The diffusion of infrastructure and of innovation is based in the economics of what is feasible,not only what is technologically possible,shap

103、ed by the regulatory and policy environment.Box 2:The Economies of the Triple Transition in Asia and the PacificThe care economy.a Along with health care,the care economy recognizes caregiving as a vital function in economies to enable a healthy and productive workforce,and active aging.Paid work in

104、 the care economy can be formal or informal.It is predominantly low-skilled,distinct from a niche of specialist jobs.Much care work is unpaid and unrecognized in labor market terms,such as labor rights and employment statistics,and unaccounted for in the countrys gross domestic product(GDP).Of unpai

105、d women care workers who live with care recipients in Bangladesh,94%work informally.b On average,close to 50%of unpaid caregivers are classified as out of the labor force,the highest share being in poorer countries such as Timor-Leste(69%)and Pakistan(88%).In more developed countries,paid care is a

106、fast-growing sector.Taking a developed country as an indicator of growth potential,in the United States,estimates have valued the paid-care economy higher($648 billion)than the domestic pharmaceutical industry($510 billion),and than the hotel,car manufacturing,and social networking industries combin

107、ed.The digital economy.The digital economy is built on“networks of economic activities,commercial transactions,and professional interactions enabled by information and communications technologies(ICT).”Importantly for labor demand,the digital economy combines established digital industries and non-d

108、igital industries,enabling their production,i.e.,industries from which digital industries require inputs and to which they provide output.c Based on inputoutput modeling in 16economies of Asia and the Pacific,their respective domestic digital economy is estimated to account for 2%9%of GDP.Ranges inc

109、rease from 17%to 35%of GDP when a broader definition of a“digitally-dependent economy”is applied,which accounts for forward-and backward-linkages to sectors that are critically dependent on core digital sectors.The green economy.The green economy is defined as“low carbon,resource efficient,and socia

110、lly inclusive.”In a green economy,“economic activities,infrastructure,and assets allow reduced carbon emissions and pollution,enhanced energy and resource efficiency,and prevention of the loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services.”d The size of the green economy is often measured in terms of proje

111、cted need to meet climate goals,rather than current contribution to output.ADB estimated in 2021 that around$1.5 trillion annually is required in the region from 2016 to 2030 to green economies and meet the Sustainable Development Goals.e An earlier study found that Asia outperforms other regions in

112、 sales,exports,and patenting of Low-Carbon Environmental Goods and Services(LCEGS),f although relatively developed countries contribute most.gcontinued on next page5Effects of Megatrends on Job Creation and Job Quality a Some definitions of the care economy are broad and encompass all health and soc

113、ial work and education sectors.(ILO.2018.Care Work and Care Jobs for the Future of Decent Work.https:/www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/-dgreports/-dcomm/-publ/documents/publication/wcms_633135.pdf;UN Economist Network.New Economics for Sustainable Development.Purple Economy(Care Economy+).https:/www

114、.un.org/sites/un2.un.org/files/purple_economy_14_march.pdf.).Childcare and eldercare are two key components for workers,as well as care for people who are sick or who have disabilities,and include indirect care such as domestic duties of cleaning and cooking.In effect,care is a public good for econo

115、mic activity.b In upper-middle-income countries such as the Peoples Republic of China(PRC),this share is 56%.Based on analysis of the employment status of female,unpaid caregivers in urban areas,relatively richer countries such as Brunei Darussalam,the PRC,Thailand,and Viet Nam have close to 70%of c

116、are workers who are employed,but at low wages.In the Association of Southeast Asian Nations or ASEAN,much home-based care of the young,older persons,and people with disabilities is provided by domestic workers,many of whom are migrant workers and are informal.c ADB.2021.Capturing the Digital Economy

117、:A Proposed Measurement Framework and Its Applications.A Special Supplement to Key Indicators for Asia and the Pacific 2021.https:/www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/722366/capturing-digital-economy-measurement-framework.pdf.d UN Environment Programme.Green Economy.https:/www.unep.org/regio

118、ns/asia-and-pacific/regional-initiatives/supporting-resource-efficiency/green-economy.e ADB.Asia and the Pacifics Green Economic Reset:12 Things to Know.https:/www.adb.org/news/videos/asia-and-pacific-s-green-economic-reset-12-things-know.f Low-Carbon Environmental Goods and Services is a United Kin

119、gdom classification for environmental sectors.https:/www.data.gov.uk/dataset/ab9e8025-9d00-4172-b0e9-9262967e70b6/low-carbon-and-environmental-goods-and-services-industry-analysis.g S.Fankhauser,A.Kazaglis,and S.Srivastav.2017.Green Growth Opportunities for Asia.ADB Economics Working Paper Series.No

120、.508.ADB.https:/www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/224391/ewp-508.pdf.Box 2 continuedThe geography and inclusivity of jobs also shift.For example,if out-migration of young workers drives net increase in population aging in a rural or coastal community,demand for eldercare services will rise

121、(demographic transition).Mainly men work in polluting jobs,and women are underrepresented in green-task jobs.People with lower levels of educational attainment and skills also mainly work in polluting jobs,and are less likely to take part in training(green transition).7 Furthermore,the three transit

122、ions also change the ways in which people engage with the labor market.New concepts emerge about what it means to have a“quality”job,such as one that is environmentally responsible,or adequately protected outside of a traditional employment relationship.The following section presents the labor marke

123、t impacts of the triple transition.It focuses on what the megatrends mean for jobs in quantitative terms,then turns to skills and social protection,as two indicators of job quality.Labor demand is the primary variable.First,what are the effects on job creation,destruction,and reallocation?Second,wil

124、l future jobs be higher skilled?And third,what do changes mean for social protection?Each of the three megatrends are discussed in turn along these three analytical dimensions.7 OECD.2023.Job Creation and Local Economic Development 2023:Bridging the Great Green Divide.OECD Publishing.https:/doi.org/

125、10.1787/21db61c1-en.This research defined green-task jobs based on the O-NET taxonomy of greenness of tasks for over 900 occupations,and analyzed current and projected green-task jobs at subregional level in 30 OECD countries.Quality Jobs and the Future of Work in Asia and the Pacific6Job Quantity a

126、nd Labor DemandLabor Demand and Demographic TransitionThe median age of populations is projected to rise in all countries of Asia and the Pacific.Population aginga rise in the median age of the populationis being caused by(i)older people enjoying longer lives and(ii)a decline in the fertility rate.T

127、hese are signs of global progress through economic development,increases in income,and advances in education and health care.Populations are aging both absolutely and relatively.This means the workforce is getting older,increasing steadily in all countriesas illustrated by a selection of countries i

128、n Figure 1.Demographic transition has direct,indirect,and aggregate effects on labor demand.The direct effects are on demand for the care economy(Box 2,p.4).The indirect effects occur through changing consumption patterns of older or younger consumers.Older people are“dis-savers”on aggregate.They se

129、ll assets,rather than invest,and their consumption is not in equity purchases,such as the housing market.Further,demographic transition shapes the size and productivity of the workforce available to meet labor demand.This can also have sector effects on labor supply due to age-related work capabilit

130、ies.For example,there is a lower share of older workers in the construction sector.Figure 1:Median Age of the Labor Force in Selected Asia and Pacific Countries,1990,2000,2010,2020,and 203019902000201020202030Republicof KoreaJapanSingaporeThailandNew ZealandViet NamAustraliaIndonesiaBruneiDarussalam

131、PeoplesRepublicof ChinaIndiaMalaysiaPhilippinesMyanmarCambodiaLao PeoplesDemocraticRepublic01020304050AgeSource:UNESCAP.2022.Asia-Pacific Report on Population Ageing 2022:Trends,policies and good practices regarding older persons and population ageing.https:/www.unescap.org/sites/default/d8files/kno

132、wledge-products/AP-Ageing-2022-report.pdf.Data taken from ILO.2018.Preparing for the Future of Work.National Policy Responses in ASEAN+6;and ILO.2021.Getting Older:Confronting Asia and the Pacifics Ageing Labour Force.https:/www.ilo.org/asia/media-centre/news/WCMS_818956/lang-en/index.htm.7Effects o

133、f Megatrends on Job Creation and Job Quality Changing population structures affect demand in the care sector.Care dependency ratios in the region,particularly for older persons(aged 65 years and above)in aging economies,are set to almost double.8 More care jobs will be needed.9 Expanding childcare,p

134、arental leave,and long-term care(LTC)services can create up to 299 million jobs worldwide by 2035,assuming investment of$5.4 trillion annually(equivalent to 4.2%of total annual gross domestic product).10 It is estimated that Thailand will need 23.4 million primary-care workers and caregivers in hous

135、ehold services,childcare,and eldercare by 2030,and 2.44.7 million by 2050.11 A particular growth area is in LTC services,such as home-based eldercare.In Singapore,a 130%increase in demand for LTC direct-care workers is projected to 2030 since 2017.12 Typically,the care sector is low-wage,informal,an

136、d female-dominant.Most likely,informal female care work will rise.If more and better care jobs are created,more women will be able to join the workforce.13 Promoting healthy aging will also spur growth in demand for specialist,formal jobs in medical science related to gerontology and the health-care

137、 industry,in general.A significant increase in health workers is projected globally by 2030,although there are geographic disparities in meeting demand,with small island developing states facing particular shortages.14As societies age,demand is likely to shift from durable goods(such as cars)to serv

138、ices(such as health care).This results from consumption preferences of older people.Changing composition of households due to demographic transition can also have sector impacts,with knock-on effects on jobs.Smaller households use more energy per capita.Households with more children or older people

139、have different resource allocation priorities,for example,the former will tend to prioritize education expenditure.Pakistan is among countries with the highest share of intergenerational living.15 Age-related work capabilities can also drive labor shortages.For example,there is a lower share of olde

140、r workers in construction or other physically taxing occupations.Demographic transition also affects aggregate labor demand.Population size and composition serve as fundamental drivers of an economys potential for aggregate growth and productivity,which in turn drives aggregate demandincluding for l

141、abor.The ratio of people of working age(aged 1564 years,i.e.,the working-age population)to non-contributing children and older people sets the limits for economic activity and net contribution.Overall,in Asia and the Pacific,the share of the population aged 65 and above is projected to almost double

142、 between 2023 and 2050 from 10.1%to 17.1%,only leveling off toward the end of the century(Figure 2).8 In the Peoples Republic of China(PRC),from 3.1%in 2000 to 6.4%in 2030;in Georgia,from 5.7%in 2000 to 9.1%in 2030;and triple in Japan,from 4.7%in 2000 to 12%in 2030.9 International Labour Organizatio

143、n(ILO).2018.Care Work and Care Jobs for the Future of Decent Work.https:/www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/-dgreports/-dcomm/-publ/documents/publication/wcms_633135.pdf.10 Some of the costs could be offset by an increase in tax revenue from the additional earnings and employment.ILO.2022.Care at work

144、:Investing in care leave and services for a more gender equal world of work.https:/www.ilo.org/publications/major-publications/care-work-investing-care-leave-and-services-more-gender-equal-world-work11 For a population of around 72 million(2022).World Bank.16 April.Population,total-Thailand.https:/d

145、ata.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL?locations=TH.12 Lien Foundation.2018.Long Term Care Manpower Study.http:/www.lienfoundation.org/sites/default/files/Long%20Term%20Care%20Manpower%20Study%20FINAL_0.pdf.13 In the PRC,India,and the Republic of Korea,women spend nearly the equivalent of full-time

146、 working hours(40 hours)on childcare;PRC 31.9 hours;India 33.2 hours;and the Republic of Korea 34.1 hours.14 M.Boniol et al.2022.The global health workforce stock and distribution in 2020 and 2030:a threat to equity and universal health coverage?BMJ Global Health 7(6).p.e009316.https:/ Intergenerati

147、onal living means households with both a member under age 20 years and a member aged 65 years and above.UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs.2019.Patterns and trends in household size and composition:Evidence from a United Nations dataset.https:/www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/www.un.or

148、g.development.desa.pd/files/agingtheme_household_size_and_composition_technical_report.pdfQuality Jobs and the Future of Work in Asia and the Pacific8An aging workforce reduces productivity.Productivity over the working life cycle is in an inverted-U shape.Despite older workers having accumulated mo

149、re experience,labor productivity is lowest for younger and older workers.As the median age of the labor force shifts upward,at some point average productivity begins to decline:“Many empirical studies have found that GDP growth slows roughly one to one with declines in labor force and population gro

150、wth.”16 Demographic drag is greater in emerging than in advanced economies,i.e.,labor productivity growth slows down with aging.17 This implies a need for flexible,less-demanding jobs for older workers.A large working-age population results in the highest demographic dividendand job creation potenti

151、al.If the workforce is relatively older with a decline in new entrants,two distinct effects on growth and productivity result.Output will decline if there are fewer workers(i.e.,a decline in the working-age population,as has occurred,for example,in Japan)not offset by an increase in productivity,and

152、 output per capita will decline as the age composition of the labor force becomes older and less productive.Table 1 shows the diversity of demographic trends across countries in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations(ASEAN)+6 region.These countries are mainly aged or are aging rapidly with shrin

153、king working-age shares.The early-dividend countries that are not yet“aged”(in terms of their share of population age 65 and above)and have declining fertility rates have potential for economic payoff.Households with lower numbers of children generally invest more per child,have more freedom for wom

154、en to enter the formal workforce,and more household savings for old age.16 R.Lee and A.Mason.2017.Cost of aging.Finance&Development.54(1).pp.79.https:/www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2017/03/pdf/lee.pdf.17 A.F.Gravina and M.Lanzafame.2023.Demography,Growth,and Robots in Advanced and Emerging Econ

155、omies.ADB Economics Working Paper Series.No.701.ADB.https:/www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/922246/ewp-701-demography-growth-robots.pdf.Figure 2:Share of Population Aged 014,1564,and 65 and Above in Asia and the Pacific,19502097(Projected)0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.019501957196419711978198

156、51992199920062013202020272034204120482055206220692076208320902097Million014156465 and aboveSource:United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific.2022.Promoting Decent Work Opportunities for Older Persons in the Asia-Pacific Region in the Context of the Fourth Industrial Revol

157、ution.Social Development Policy Briefs.No.2.https:/repository.unescap.org/handle/20.500.12870/5178.9Effects of Megatrends on Job Creation and Job Quality Table 1:Demographic Trends in Association of Southeast Asian Nations+6 CountriesCountryYear that population share aged 65+reached7%Year that popul

158、ation share aged 65+reached14%Number of years between 7%and 14%share(actual or projected)Aging status (as of 2023)Demographic grouping (20152030 period)Japan1966199327Hyper-agedPost-dividendAustralia1950201060AgedPost-dividendNew Zealand1950201262AgedPost-dividendSingapore2001202120AgedPost-dividend

159、Peoples Republic of China1998202224AgedLate-dividendThailand2002202018AgedLate-dividendViet Nam2011203423 pSoon agedLate-dividendMalaysia2018204224 pSoon agedLate-dividendIndia2020204727 pSoon agedEarly-dividendMyanmar2021205029 pSoon agedEarly-dividendIndonesia2019204526 pSoon agedEarly-dividendBru

160、nei Darussalam20232037p14 pNot yet agedLate-dividendCambodia2025 p2052 p27 pNot yet agedEarly-dividendASEAN+6=10 Association of Southeast Asian Nations(ASEAN)economies plus Australia,the Peoples Republic of China,India,Japan,the Republic of Korea,and New Zealand;p=projection.Note:Aging status is det

161、ermined as follows:“hyper-aged”share of population aged 65+is 20%or more;“aged”share of population aged 65+is more than 14%and less than 20%;“soon aged”share of population aged 65+is more than 7%and less than 14%;“not yet aged”share of population aged 65+is less than 7%.The categorization of demogra

162、phic transition follows the World Bank definition.Post-dividend=total fertility rate in 1985 below 2.1 and shrinking working-age population share,20152030;late-dividend=total fertility rate in 1985 above 2.1 and shrinking working-age population,20152030;early-dividend=total fertility rate below 4 in

163、 1985 and increasing working-age population share,20152030;and pre-dividend=total fertility rate above 4 in 1985 and increasing working-age population share,20152030.Source:UNESCAP Demographic Changes in Asia and the Pacific:Country Profiles.https:/www.population-trends-asiapacific.org/data;and S.Am

164、er Ahmed.2016.World Bank.2016.Demographic Change and Development:A Global Typology.Policy Research Working Paper.7893.World Bank Group.https:/documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/867951479745020851/pdf/WPS7893.pdf.Labor Demand and Digital TransitionIn many Asian economies,digitalization is contributi

165、ng a growing share of GDP.These include Malaysia,Thailand,and Singapore.Five of the worlds top economies in the information and communication technology(ICT)share of total patents are in Asia,signaling potential for innovation-driven growth.18 Yet,the pace of change is highly variable across the reg

166、ion through the uneven diffusion of the infrastructure,knowledge base,and usage of digital technologies.Minimal participation in the digital economy requires being online.“Meaningful connectivity”requires some digital competencies,including knowledge of digital tools.19 Mobile internet is fast becom

167、ing the most important means to bridge the regions digital divide.According to the Global System for Mobile Communications Association or GSMA,East Asia and Pacific has the highest mobile internet adoption rate after North America,Europe,and Central Asia at 71%usage,a more than 30%increase since 201

168、7(in 2022)(Figure 3).18 T.S.Sedik.2018.Asias Digital Revolution.Finance&Development Magazine.IMF.https:/www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/2018/09/asia-digital-revolution-sedik.19 International Telecommunication Union.About UMC.https:/www.itu.int/itu-d/sites/projectumc/home/aboutumc/.Quality J

169、obs and the Future of Work in Asia and the Pacific10The digital transition is profoundly transforming labor markets.First,digitalization both creates new sectors,occupations,and tasks(job creation),and eliminates redundant ones(job substitution).It also augments specific tasks of existing jobs,enhan

170、cing their performance,regardless of sector/industry or occupation(job complementing).These effects on jobs are dynamic.New ICT-intensive jobs(see Box 3 for definitions of digital jobs)can be created as digital technologies advance,but then become redundant as technologies continue to evolve.For exa

171、mple,data entry and analysis roles are being superseded by AI.Generative AI is having particularly transformative effects on jobs,due to its interplay with“human”cognitive capabilities.Second,digitalization is changing the ways in which people engage with employment through more digital-dependent jo

172、bs.“Gig”work mediated via digital platforms collapses barriers to entry to the labor market,particularly those of time,place,and cost.20 This eases labor force participation and can thus enable employment.Finally,a digitally networked economy implies a major reduction in transaction costs,eliminatin

173、g barriers of time and distance,leading to a more efficient intermediation between labor supply and demand,boosting productivity.A 1-percentage-point increase in the digitalization of the Peoples Republic of Chinas(PRC)economy is associated with a 0.3-percentage-point in GDP growth(footnote 18).20 A

174、 digital platform is defined by the ILO as“a set of digital resources,including services and content that enable value-creating interactions between consumers and individual service-providing workers.”Asia and the Pacific dominates developing regions in the prevalence and growth of platform work(Dat

175、ta et al.,2023).Figure 3:Mobile Internet Connectivity in East Asia and the Pacific,20172022ConnectedCoverage gap(not covered and not connected)Usage gap(covered but not connected)43%1.01bn3%0.70bn54%1.28bn201740%0.94bn2%0.05bn58%1.38bn201837%0.87bn2%0.05bn61%1.46bn201930%0.72bn2%0.04bn68%1.64bn20213

176、3%0.80bn2%0.04bn65%1.55bn202028%0.67bn2%0.04bn71%1.71bn2022bn=billion.Note:Totals may not add up to 100%due to rounding.“Usage gap”refers to populations that live within the footprint of a mobile broadband network but who are not using mobile internet.“Coverage gap”refers to populations that do not

177、live within the footprint of a mobile broadband network(3G or above).Source:Global System for Mobile Communications Association(GSMA).2023.The State of Mobile Internet Connectivity 2023.East Asia&Pacific Key Trends.https:/ of Megatrends on Job Creation and Job Quality A 2021 study by the Asian Devel

178、opment Bank(ADB)forecasted that in Asia and the Pacific,close to 65 million new jobs will be created yearly until 2025 from increased use of digital technologies.The digital sector in Asia would be worth$1.84 trillion by 2025,a rise of 31%from its value in 2020.Digital sector employment will rise by

179、 7.1%in Central Asia,and in Southeast Asia by 6.2%in the same period.21 Jobs such as AI and machine learning specialists,sustainability specialists,information security analysts,agricultural equipment operators,and database architects,among many others,are expected to be created.Job impacts are sect

180、oral.Agricultural equipment operators will see the highest job growth,creating more than 2.5 million jobs,while as many as 89 million data entry clerks will lose their jobs over the same period.22 The labor-intensive ready-made garments sector in Bangladesh is experiencing net job loss:estimated in

181、2020 at a loss of 5.5 million jobs by 2041.23 In Indonesia,ADB estimates that in the food and beverage sector,net job creation will be positive:26%of the workforce could be displaced,but labor demand will increase by 41%due to Fourth Industrial Revolution effects.In the automotive manufacturing indu

182、stry,the equivalent figures are 29%job loss and 30%job creation.24Employment effects of automation depend on the relative costs of labor and capital.While 85%of construction jobs in Cambodia might be technically“at risk,”it is unlikely that the risk would materialize if relative labor and capital co

183、sts continue to argue in favor of labor-intensive construction.This would not be the case in Japan,where the risk of automation is higher due to high labor costs and scarcity of labor supply.2521 ADB.2021.Asian Economic Integration Report 2021.https:/www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/67442

184、1/asian-economic-integration-report-2021.pdf.22 According to a survey by the World Economic Forum(WEF)of 803 companiescollectively employing more than 11.3 million workersacross 27 industry clusters and 45 economies from all world regions.The Future of Jobs Report 2023.https:/www.weforum.org/reports

185、/the-future-of-jobs-report-2023.23 UNDP.2020.Future of Work and SDG Attainment in the Age of Fourth Industrial RevolutionBangladesh Perspective.https:/www.undp.org/bangladesh/stories/future-work-and-sdg-attainment-age-fourth-industrial-revolution%E2%80%94bangladesh-perspective.24 ADB.2021.Reaping th

186、e Benefits of Industry 4.0 Through Skills Development in Indonesia.https:/www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/671876/benefits-industry-skills-development-indonesia.pdf.25 D.Acemoglu and P.Restrepo.2022.Demographics and automation.The Review of Economic Studies.89(1).pp.144.https:/doi.org/10.

187、1093/restud/rdab031.Box 3:Definitions of Digital JobsICT-intensive jobs are those jobs in the information and communication technology(ICT)sector itself,such as programmers,software developers,and AI engineers.ICT-dependent jobs are jobs performed on digital platforms,such as Uber drivers,Upwork or

188、Deliveroo workers,or freelance consultants.ICT-enabled jobs are those that are assisted by digital technologies but can be performed(less well)without it,such as accountants,surgeons,or graphic designers.Source:ILO,World Bank,and ADB.Quality Jobs and the Future of Work in Asia and the Pacific12Techn

189、ological disruptions lead to a reallocation of workers and jobs,i.e.,greater structural labor market churn.26 Churn is an important way to assess impacts of digital transition on jobs because even modest net change in the numbers of jobs can mask significant underlying reconfigurations and effects o

190、n workers.Jobs lost and those created will have different skill profiles and occur in different geographical locations,creating new dynamics for labor market inclusion.The World Economic Forum(WEF)finds that,globally,in the next 5 years,152 million jobs will face a structural labor market churn.Acro

191、ss occupations,this represents 23%of current employment.Comparing data per economy in Asia and the Pacific included in the WEF sample,the churn rates range from 19%in Hong Kong,China to 30%in Pakistan.A 2017 McKinsey study projected that between 75 million and 375 million of the worlds workers will

192、need to switch occupational category by 2030,under different scenarios,equivalent to 14%of the global workforce.27The latest digital advancements are affecting jobs differently compared to earlier stages of automation.Previous stages of automation(characterized by use of robotics and computerization

193、,among other technologies)mainly displaced medium-skilled,routine jobs.28 With the expansion of generative AI and large-language models,higher cognitive and nonroutine content is affected.Jobs that require nuanced judgment,creative problem-solving,or intricate data interpretationtraditionally the do

194、main of highly skilled professionalscan now be augmented or even replaced by advanced AI algorithms,potentially exacerbating inequality across and within occupations:“This shift challenges the conventional wisdom that technological advances threaten primarily lower-skilled jobs and points to a broad

195、er and deeper transformation of the labor market than by previous technological revolutions.”29Of the worlds jobs,40%are exposed to AI-induced job changes(footnote 29).Estimates of job displacement vary depending on the estimation methodology,particularly whether an occupation-or a task-based approa

196、ch is considered.30 Automation mainly affects jobs in advanced economies,driven by the highest prevalence of high-skilled employment,faster adoption of AI,and existing high wages.31 Wages are an important determinant of the job effects of labor-displacing technologies.Of Vietnamese garment industry

197、workers,86%are susceptible to displacement through automation,as wages in the sector rise.32 However,in other garment-producing countries such as Bangladesh,26 Structural churn relates to the creation and destruction of roles,not the replacement of employees in the same role.27 Based on analysis in

198、46 economies accounting for around 90%of global GDP.Note that this study precedes the onset of generative AI.McKinsey and Company.2017.Jobs Lost,Jobs Gained:Workforce Transitions in a Time of Automation.https:/ Data on the skill composition of the labor force confirm the decline in the share of medi

199、um-skilled employment,and the increased share of high-skilled employment.The data do not suggest the disappearance of low-skilled labor,much of which may be nonroutine,and much of which is preponderant in locations to which the digital economy has not yet diffused in any case.29 M.Cazzaniga et al.20

200、24.Gen AI:Artificial intelligence and the future of work.IMF Staff Discussion Note.14 January.p.3.https:/www.imf.org/en/Publications/Staff-Discussion-Notes/Issues/2024/01/14/Gen-AI-Artificial-Intelligence-and-the-Future-of-Work-542379.30 The task-and occupation-based approaches relate to whether dis

201、placement effects are analyzed at the task or job level,particularly whether the whole occupation(e.g.,agricultural labor)could be displaced or only certain tasks/activities/functions(such as plowing)could be displaced.31 Microsoft.2019.Preparing for AI:The Implications of Artificial Intelligence fo

202、r Jobs and Skills in Asian Economies.https:/ ILO.2021.The Post-COVID-19 Garment Industry in Asia.ILO Research Brief.https:/www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/-asia/-ro-bangkok/documents/briefingnote/wcms_814510.pdf.13Effects of Megatrends on Job Creation and Job Quality Cambodia,and India,relatively l

203、ow wages of workers act as a disincentive for the entry of“sew-bots”into the industry.In Viet Namwhere the economy has outgrown its earlier dynamism based on the availability of low-cost,low-skilled laborreplacing labor by digital machinery such as sew-bots can renew the industrys competitiveness.In

204、 this scenario,job loss associated with partial automation reduces the extent of total job loss that would have occurred through relocationa more nuanced(and more positive)net employment outcome than a mere jobs-at-risk assessment.Technologies that result in job loss but also higher productivity and

205、 lower costs may lead to higher job-creating growth in a general equilibrium sense.Jobs lost to automation can result in increased productivity,thereby increasing competitiveness.This can increase job growth directly for the firm,and indirectly elsewhere in the firms value chain through a multiplier

206、 effect.For example,in the Philippines,the IT-business process outsourcing sector will displace about one-quarter of jobs,but will simultaneously generate 34%of new jobs in upgraded services the sector will offer.33 If production is more efficient,prices can go down,so disposable incomes can go up,w

207、hich can raise aggregate demand,outweighing the negative impact of technology,leading to a net positive increase in employment.34The future demand for labor cannot be fully known,as technologies continue to evolve and their full range of uses is a process of discovery.For example,digital technologie

208、s can“reinstate”tasks,“where a new technology increases the need for a wider array of labor-intensive tasks”35an unforeseen outcome of unforeseen uses of technology.New jobs will be created that are not yet known.McKinsey used history as a guide to estimate that 8%9%of 2030 labor demand will be in n

209、ew types of occupations that have not existed before.36 Social acceptability of AI will play a role in determining its ultimate impacts;the extent to which humankind considers its use to be appropriate in different contexts,such as making legal judgments(footnote 29).Digitalization is also transform

210、ing the way people engage with employment through gig work.Digital labor markets can lower barriers to entry,including for workers with only basic digital skillsbut with digital connectivity.In some countries of the region,gig employment growth is estimated to be about 30%in recent years.Digital lab

211、or platforms have played a major role in transforming the(often algorithm-based)mediation between labor supply and demand.Typically,workers are hired informally on a self-employed basis as independent contractors to complete short-term tasks or projects(“gigs”).Working methods,location of work,natur

212、e of work demanded by workers,and employeremployee relationships are reorganized,compared against standard forms of employment involving fixed duration of working hours,requirement of being physically present at the location of work,and labor laws governed by regulation.Platform workers are divided

213、into those who deliver an immaterial or 33 ADB.2021.Reaping the Benefits of Industry Through Skills Development in the Philippines.https:/www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/671881/benefits-industry-skills-development-philippines.pdf.34 ADB.2018.Asian Development Outlook(ADO)2018:How Technol

214、ogy Affects Jobs.https:/www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/411666/ado2018.pdf.35 D.Acemoglu and P.Restrepo.2018.The race between man and machine:implications of technology for growth,factor shares,and employment.American Economic Review.108(6).pp.14881542.D.Acemoglu and P.Restrepo.2019.Auto

215、mation and new tasks:how technology displaces and reinstates labor.Journal of Economic Perspectives.33(2).pp.330.36 McKinsey Global Institute.2017.Jobs Lost,Jobs Gained:Workforce Transitions in a Time of Automation.https:/ Jobs and the Future of Work in Asia and the Pacific14“digital”product through

216、 an online exchange,and those who deliver“in situ”a material good or service,such as food delivery or rental accommodation.As ADB research finds:“Usually,asymmetric information is the cause of high delivery costs and low access,and digital technology can bridge this information gap.”37The past decad

217、e has seen a fivefold increase in the number of digital labor platforms globally,particularly in web-based and location-based platforms.The number of taxi and delivery platforms(i.e.,location-based platforms)alone has grown tenfold during the period.38 The ride-sharing economy in Bangladesh is value

218、d at$259 million,23%of the entire transportation sector in the nation,and is expected to grow further.39 Of the worlds workers,12%are engaged in online gig work.40 Three-quarters of platforms are regional or local,not global.East Asia and the Pacific is the third-highest subregion globally for locat

219、ion of platform headquarters(15%),after North America(39%)and the European Union(22%).Demand for online gig workers is rising faster in developing countries than in industrialized countries.Asia accounts for about 50%of digital platform revenue.Gig work is generally performed by young people(aged 35

220、 years or below).The average age of workers ranges from 27 years in India and the PRC,to 35 years in Indonesia,varying across services.For example,in India gig workers in the delivery services are relatively younger(average 27 years)compared with taxi services(33 years).Globally,over half of online

221、gig workers are youth.Gig workers are motivated to join the platforms to earn extra income and work flexibly(Box4).Flexibility can be particularly beneficial to female labor market inclusion.Working from home tends to be more important for women(35%)than men(25%),both in developing and developed cou

222、ntries.Whilewomen remain underrepresented,they are starting to participate to a greater extent in the online gig economy than in the general workforce in similar occupations.Six in 10 online gig workers live in smaller cities.4137 ADB Asian Economic Integration Report,Footnote 21,p.187.38 ILO.2021.W

223、orld Employment and Social Outlook:The role of digital labour platforms in transforming the world of work.https:/www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/-dgreports/-dcomm/-publ/documents/publication/wcms_771749.pdf.39 Fairwork.2021.Fairwork Bangladesh Ratings 2021:Labour Standards in the Gig Economy.https:

224、/fair.work/wp-content/uploads/sites/17/2021/12/Fairwork-Bangladesh-Report-2021-accessible-1.pdf 40 Online gig work includes online freelancing and online microwork performed and delivered online,regardless of location.41 World Bank.2023.Working Without Borders:The Promise and Peril of Online Gig Wor

225、k.https:/openknowledge.worldbank.org/entities/publication/ebc4a7e2-85c6-467b-8713-e2d77e954c6c.15Effects of Megatrends on Job Creation and Job Quality Box 4:Gig Work Preferences Among Youth and Employers in Three Asian Economies Results of an ADB-Commissioned SurveyNoting that most gig workers are y

226、oung,research in Bangladesh,Georgia,and Indonesia surveyed a sample of students about their views on gig work.a Awareness of working in the gig economy was surprisingly low in Bangladesh and Indonesia(36%and 39%of students reported being“not at all aware,”respectively,compared with 17%in Georgia).Of

227、 the youth who reported awareness of gig work,flexibility in working hours was a consistent motivator in all countries(reported by 56%in Bangladesh,57%in Georgia,and 58%in Indonesia).Georgian students were particularly incentivized by gaining supplementary income(73%).Youth in Indonesia considered g

228、ig work to be a pathway to higher incomes(67%),and some three-quarters(74%)wanted to work in gig jobs after gaining some experience.Half of respondents in Bangladesh expressed preferences to work in gig jobs in addition to a full-time job(this was lower in Indonesia,10%,and Georgia,33%).Separately,e

229、mployers in selected industries were also surveyed about the extent of gig-based hiring in their firms by skill level,and future plans.b Results varied by industry:Indonesia:43%40%18%23%2336%38%36%26%For low-skilled jobs that requirebasic digital skills such as data entryFor medium-skilled jobs that

230、 requireuse of intermediate digital skillsFor high-skilled jobs that requireadvanced digital skills,teamleadership/problem-solving skills,etc.AutomobileTransport and StorageOverallBangladesh:28%44%22%6%13%17%57%13%21%31%39%10%For low-skilled jobs thatrequire basic digital skills suchas data entryFor

231、 medium-skilled jobsthat require use ofintermediate digital skillsFor high-skilled jobs that require advanced digital skills,team leadership/problem-solving skills,etc.We do not have a specificrequirement as of nowRMGICTOverallcontinued on next pageQuality Jobs and the Future of Work in Asia and the

232、 Pacific16Georgia:20%27%27%27%13%22%13%48%16%24%18%39%For low-skilled jobs thatrequire basic digital skillssuch as data entryFor medium-skilled jobsthat require use ofintermediate digital skillsFor high-skilled jobs that require advanced digital skills/leadership/problem-solving skills,etc.No specif

233、ic requirementFood and BeverageTransport and StorageOveralla Surveys were commissioned by PwC under ADB technical assistance Quality Jobs and Future of Work(TA 6533)and surveyed 600students per country from a selection of general education and technical and vocational education and training(TVET)ins

234、titutes.This sample excludes young people outside of formal education.b Selected industries:Ready Made Garments and ICT(Bangladesh);Food and Beverage and Transport and Storage(Georgia);Automotive and Transport and Storage(Indonesia).Source:ADB consultants report,PwC.Labor Demand and Green Transition

235、Asia and the Pacific is at the center of the climate crisis.The region is both highly exposed to threats from climate change and a large contributor to greenhouse gas(GHG)emissions.The regions geography,including its coastlines,low-lying territories with dense populations,and numerous small island s

236、tates,makes it exceptionally prone to rising sea levels and extremes in weather conditions.Of the 10 countries worldwide most affected by extreme weather events between 2000 and 2019,six were in Asia.An estimated half of the population in the Pacific live within 10 kilometers of the coast.42 As a gl

237、obal manufacturing hub,Asia is also a major contributor to climate change.Three of the seven top GHG emitters in 2020 were from Asia(the PRC,India,and Indonesia).The regions urban areas produce 70%of global GHG emissions,primarily in the PRC,43 and 38%of global energy-related GHG emissions come from

238、 the region.44 If emissions stay high,economic losses resulting from climate change will be significant across developing Asia.Figure 4 shows declines in GDP resulting from climate impacts under a high-emissions scenario on key sectors(energy and transport,forestry,and agriculture),labor productivit

239、y,river flooding,and sea level rises for two countries and two subregions,with India,for example,at risk of a 7.3%decline in GDP by 2040 and a 35%decline by 2100.42 M.Mycoo et al.2022.Small Islands.In Climate Change 2022:Impacts,Adaptation and Vulnerability.Contribution of Working Group II to the Si

240、xth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.By H.O.Prtner et al.,eds.Cambridge University Press,pp.20432121.https:/www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_Chapter15.pdf.43 L.P.Low.Now or Never to Rein in Emissions:Highlights from IPCC Third Report and Imp

241、lications in Asia Pacific.https:/ Climate Watch:Data Explorer.https:/www.climatewatchdata.org/data-explorer(accessed 9 February 2024).Box 4continued17Effects of Megatrends on Job Creation and Job Quality Like the other two transitions,the green transition at once creates,substitutes,and alters jobs.

242、The shift in economic activity out of high-carbon industries and processes into low-carbon alternatives results in the decline of polluting sectors and occupations and the emergence of more sustainable industries,jobs,and tasks.Industries(and jobs and tasks)that are major contributors to climate cha

243、nge are phased out in favor of more sustainable industrial approaches.45 Decoupling the use of natural resources from economic growth can increase direct net employment in green sectors.46 Shifting toward more energy-efficient production and consumption also changes the ways in which people 45 The e

244、nergy sector is a major focus,with its high carbon output transferred downstream as an input to a variety of manufacturing and service industries and consumption goods,such as automobiles.Agriculture and forestry,or land use,is a significant source of GHG(carbon dioxide and methane)emissions through

245、 deforestation that reduces the capture of carbon dioxide or“carbon sink”function of vegetation.Similarly,the built economy,i.e.,construction and housing;and waste and water management.AusAID and ILO.Factsheet:Green Jobs in Nepal.https:/www.ilo.org/sites/default/files/wcmsp5/groups/public/asia/ro-ba

246、ngkok/ilo-kathmandu/documents/projectdocumentation/wcms_160269.pdf.46 R.Maclean,S.Jagannathan,and B.Panth.2018.Education and Skills for Inclusive Growth,Green Jobs and the Greening of Economies in Asia.ADB.https:/www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/385041/education-skills-green-jobs.pdf.Figu

247、re 4:Economic Losses from Climate Change in Developing Asia Under a High-Emissions Scenario by 2100Peoples Republic of ChinaSoutheast AsiaRest of South AsiaAgricultureIndiaGDP changeGDP change0.0%10.0%1.1%202020402060208021002020204020602080210020202040206020802100202020402060208021003.1%3.8%5.6%7.8

248、%1.7%7.3%12.1%1.5%1.6%7.0%11.8%19.2%32.2%5.8%9.5%14.3%23.9%19.6%35.0%20.0%30.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%Energy and transportForestryLabor productivityRiverine floodingSea level riseGDP=gross domestic product.Source:ADB.2023.Asia in the Global Transition to Net Zero:Asian Development Outlook 2023 Thematic

249、Report.Calculations by authors from van der Wijst,KI.,Bosello,F.,Dasgupta,S.et al.New damage curves and multimodel analysis suggest lower optimal temperature.Nat.Clim.Chang.13,434441(2023).https:/doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01636-1.Quality Jobs and the Future of Work in Asia and the Pacific18work.A“g

250、reening”of economic activity applies across sectors,like digitalization.Over time,most jobs will evolve to accommodate sustainable practices and processes.Finally,climatic trends of warming alter conditions at work,and climatic shocks destroy and disrupt livelihoods,especially in the most exposed ar

251、eas.Box 5 shows different definitions of green jobs.Box 5:Definitions of Green JobsInternational Monetary Fund(IMF):Under the IMFs definition,the environmental properties of jobs are multidimensional,involving the extent to which workers undertake tasks that improve environmental sustainability(gree

252、n intensity)and the degree to which their work involves activities exacerbating pollution(pollution intensity),as well as the level of emissions generated per worker(emissions intensity).United Nations(UN):UNs definition of a green job combines environmental as well as job quality:“contributes to pr

253、eserving or restoring the quality of the environment while also meeting the criteria for decent workadequate wages,safe conditions,workers rights,social dialogue and social protection.”aAsian Development Bank(ADB):ADB defines four categories of green jobs:(i)Sustainabilityjobs in which the work proc

254、ess can be made more sustainable;all jobs are green jobs;(ii)Green Industryjobs affiliated with economic activities that are deemed green by virtue of contributing to reducing carbon emissions;(iii)Task Profilejobs that are affected by the green transition either by an increase in demand or change i

255、n task profile;and(iv)Green Taskjobs that have a high green skills intensity.Country exampleCambodia:the Cambodia Climate Change Strategic Plan defines a green job as“individuals engaging in employment activities that preserve and restore environmental quality and help reduce negative environmental

256、impacts”(ASEAN).a Definitions of green jobs aim to incorporate sustainability in both output and process.Sources:UNEP and ILO.2008.Green Jobs:Towards Decent Work in a Sustainable,Low-Carbon World.https:/www.unep.org/resources/report/green-jobs-towards-sustainable-work-low-carbon-world;ILO.2021.Regio

257、nal Study on Green Jobs Policy Readiness in ASEAN-Final Report.ASEAN and ILO.https:/asean.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/ASEAN-Regional-Green-Jobs-policy-readiness-Report-web.pdf;A.Tsironis.2023.Preparing the Workforce for the Low-Carbon Economy:A Closer Look at Green Jobs and Green Skills.ADB Brief

258、s No.262.https:/www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/916561/adb-brief-262-workforce-low-carbon-economy.pdf.Job estimates are net positive for climate change mitigation scenarios.The International Labour Organizations(ILO)modeling(based on the International Energy Agency(IEA)2C scenario,which

259、compares with a baseline 6C scenario)estimates a net increase at around 14.2 million green jobs in Asia and the Pacific,79%of the global increase(Figure 6).47 Other analysis by ILO finds that decarbonization is expected to generate up to 24million green jobs by 2030 globally,the majority in Asia,whi

260、le some 6 million jobs are expected to be lost,particularly in carbon-intensive industries.48 Through a comprehensive decarbonization transition,Deloitte estimates that the economies of Asia 47 ILO.2018.World Employment Social Outlook 2018:Greening with Jobs.https:/webapps.ilo.org/weso-greening/docu

261、ments/WESO_Greening_EN_web2.pdf48 ILO.2021.Regional Study on Green Jobs Policy Readiness in ASEAN.https:/asean.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/ASEAN-Regional-Green-Jobs-policy-readiness-Report-web.pdf.19Effects of Megatrends on Job Creation and Job Quality and the Pacific can add$47 trillion of value

262、 by 2070 and create 180 million jobs by 2050.49 ADB estimated the impact of a$172 billion,five-part green growth strategy that can generate 30 million jobs in Southeast Asia by 2030.50Job impacts will vary by sector.They will depend on sector carbon intensity and climate exposure.Sectors that are pa

263、rticularly exposed to climatic conditions need attention.Deloittes modeling estimates that 43%of the Asia and Pacific workforce are employed in climate-vulnerable industries(agriculture,conventional energy,heavy industry and manufacturing,transport,and construction)(footnote 49).In the Pacific,more

264、than one-quarter of the workforce is employed in agriculture,forestry,and fishing alone(28.4%of total employment).This rises to 45%in the Lao Peoples Democratic Republic and Myanmar.Shifting to organic and sustainable practices will be especially relevant.51 Jobs in all sectors will be affected by“g

265、reening,”i.e.,shifting economic activity toward environmentally sustainable production and other processes:“It appears that many existing jobs(especially those such as plumbers,electricians,metal workers,and construction workers)will be transformed and redefined as day-to-day skills sets,work method

266、s,and profiles are greened.”52In the renewable energy sector,technologies are currently more labor-intensive than fossil-fuel technologies.If countries continue dependency on fossil fuels,it is feasible that energy sector jobs will decline by 500,000 by 2030,as a result of increasing labor productiv

267、ity.53 Renewable energy sector employment(direct and indirect)grew from 7.3 million globally in 2012 to 12.7 million in 2021,with the solar photovoltaic(4.3 million,2021)and bioenergy(3.4 million,2021)industries the top two employers.Employment in renewables is estimated to increase to 38 million pe

268、ople globally by 2030,and 43 million by 2050,based on IEAs 1.5C pathway.54 Almost two-thirds of renewable jobs are in Asia,with the PRC alone accounting for 42%of the global total.Between 2019 and 2022,clean energy jobs were the major driver of energy job growth,outweighing losses in fossil-fuel job

269、s in almost all countries worldwide(except the Russian Federation and some countries in North Africa).In India,Indonesia,andthe Middle East,fossil-fuel employment increased.The PRC underwent the largest rebalancing over the 20192022 period,with clean energy jobs growing by 2 million and fossil-fuel-

270、related jobs falling by600,000.5549 Deloitte.2023.Work Toward Net Zero in Asia Pacific.https:/ The five green growth areas are(i)productive and regenerative agriculture,(ii)sustainable urban development and transport,(iii)clean energy transition,(iv)circular economy models,and(v)healthy and producti

271、ve oceans.ADB.2022.Implementing a Green Recovery in Southeast Asia.https:/www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/793536/implementing-green-recovery-southeast-asia.pdf.51 ILO.2019.Green Jobs and a Just Transition for Climate Action in Asia and the Pacific.52 C.Martinez-Fernandez,C.Hinojosa,and G

272、.Miranda.2010.Greening Jobs and Skills.Labour Market Implications of Addressing Climate Change.OECD.https:/doi.org/10.1787/5kmbjgl8sd0r-en.53 The energy sector is the largest global contributor of greenhouse gases.IRENA.Renewable Energy Jobs:Status,Prospects&Policies-an IRENA Working Paper.https:/ww

273、w.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2012/Renewable_Energy_Jobs_abstract.pdf.54 IRENA and ILO.2022.Renewable Energy and Jobs:Annual Review 2022.https:/www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/-dgreports/-dcomm/documents/publication/wcms_856649.pdf.55 Globally,the energy sector employs over 67

274、million people(2022),equivalent to around 2%of global employment.IEA.World Energy Employment 2023.https:/ Jobs and the Future of Work in Asia and the Pacific20The redistributive job effects of the green transition are significant.Firms consider the green transition to be the most significant driver

275、of job creation over the next 5 years.56 Thereshaping of labor markets will displace some workers and create new opportunities for others.There can be a temporal lag,with job losses preceding job gains.There is only a limited evidence base to measure the redistributive impacts on locations and worke

276、rs,noting the potential for increased spatial and income inequalities.57 People with lower levels of educational attainment and skills mainly work in polluting jobs,and are less likely to take part in traxining.Transitioning from a nongreen to a green job can be challenging.For workers in pollution-

277、intensive work and in environmentally neutral work,the probability of transition into greener work is low(and not statistically significantly different)for both groups of workers.58 In absolute terms,the job effects of green policy interventionsa shift of about 1%of employment into the lower-emissio

278、ns-intensive sector over 10 yearsare lower than the labor reallocation that took place from industrial to service sectors in the 1980s in many advanced economies(4%per decade)(footnote 58).The job effects of mitigation and adaptation strategies will depend on the design of interventions.Some will ge

279、nerate more jobs,others will reduce labor demand.For example,fisheries quotas will limit employment in the sector.59Climate change is itself increasingly a determinant of economic opportunity.It intersects with processes of development,affecting capacity for productive work:“Climate change will beco

280、me a more conspicuous economic driver in the coming decade as climate vulnerability intensifies in major portions of South and Southeast Asia”(IOM).60If people are already vulnerable,the climate effects compound with other non-climatic stressors of vulnerabilityincluding low levels of savings,poor h

281、ealth,or weak infrastructureto disrupt livelihoods.Climate effects can be slow,such as sea level rise or ocean acidification,or sudden,such as floods or landslides,affecting livelihoods differently,for example,long-term crop degradation over time,or one-off crop wipe-out.Jobs most exposed to the nat

282、ural world tend to be the occupations of the rural poor,notably agriculture,forestry,fisheries,but also the urban poor,especially in construction.While the quantification of livelihood risk is difficult to assess with any precision,agriculture remains the largest employment sector in the region.It i

283、s estimated that rising temperatures can lead to a global loss of productivity equivalent to 80million full-time jobs.Heat stress is a growing challenge for vulnerable workers(Figure 5).A 50%reduction in labor productivity is associated with temperatures at or above 33C34C.Since adaptive capacity to

284、 climate change varies across the region,countries in South Asia and Southeast Asia are projected to be affected more than those in other subregions.Thailand,Cambodia,and India are 56 World Economic Forum.The Future of Jobs Report 2023.https:/www.weforum.org/publications/the-future-of-jobsreport-202

285、3.57 Recent OECD modeling aims to show wide in-country variance in the losses and creation of green jobs.OECD.2023.JobCreation and Local Economic Development 2023:Bridging the Great Green Divide.OECD Publishing.https:/doi.org/10.1787/21db61c1-en.58 IMF.2022.Ch 3 World Economic Outlook:War Sets Back

286、The Global Recovery.The modeled policy package includes a green infrastructure push,carbon tax,targeted training program,and an earned income tax credit.59 ILO.2019.Green Jobs and a Just Transition for Climate Action in Asia and the Pacific.60 International Organization for Migration.2023.Labour Mig

287、ration in Asia:What Does the Future Hold?https:/publications.iom.int/books/labour-migration-asia-what-does-future-hold.21Effects of Megatrends on Job Creation and Job Quality projected to lose close to 6%of their GDP,while Indonesia,Myanmar,and Papua New Guinea would lose less than 3%.61Figure 5:Wor

288、king Hours Lost to Heat Stress,By Sector and By Sub-Region,Asia and the Pacific,1995 and 2030(Projections)5.75.28.58.91.519952030Agriculture(%)Industry(%)Construction(%)Services(%)Total(%)199520301995203019952030199520300.91.83.62.81.70.40.153.95.78.58.95.21.53.61.80.10.60.20.11.40.60.2 0.14.13.10.5

289、0.35.33.70.70.70.90.90.3South AsiaSoutheast AsiaEast AsiaPacificSource:Work in agriculture and construction is assumed to be carried out in the shade.The heat stress index for work in the afternoon sun adds around 2C3C to the in-shade value.ILO.2019.Working on a Warmer Planet.https:/www.ilo.org/wcms

290、p5/groups/public/-dgreports/-dcomm/-publ/documents/publication/wcms_711919.pdf.Job Quality and SkillsThe effects of the triple transition on labor demand have implications for job quality.For the purpose of this study,job quality has been confined to two dimensions:skill endowment and social protect

291、ion coverage.This provides a lens into informality in the triple transition,with vulnerable workers often in low-skilled,precarious,and unprotected work.Taking first skills,human capital is fundamental to unlocking the benefits of the triple transition.For workers,skills underpin wages and well-bein

292、g.Higher-skilled jobs result in higher incomes.62 For firms,matching skilled workers to labor demand drives productivity.Labor productivity depends on skills at the whole-economy level.Countries that can meet the demand for skills have been found to have lower wage inequality.6361 ILO.2019.Working o

293、n a Warmer Planet.https:/www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/-dgreports/-dcomm/-publ/documents/publication/wcms_711919.pdf.62 It is recognized that a“quality”job necessitates a range of other features,in line with international standards,for example,related to stability and security of work.In the rene

294、wable energy sector,an important growth area,currently 60%70%of jobs in India are informal.Indonesia,followed by the United States and Brazilthe dominant producers for biodieselhire large numbers of workers,often employed informally and seasonally.With 500,000 such workers in Indonesia,180,000 in Co

295、lombia,130,000million in Thailand,60,000 in Malaysia,and 30,000 in Philippines,Asia and the Pacific employs a significant number of“green”workers informally.These are important considerations for further exploration of the jobs potential of the triple transition.63 OECD.2019.OECD Employment Outlook

296、2019.The Future of Work.Paris.https:/www.oecd.org/en/publications/oecd-employment-outlook-2019_9ee00155-en.html.Quality Jobs and the Future of Work in Asia and the Pacific22The megatrends imply an upward skill bias in the demand for labor.The current skill composition of countries in the region is d

297、ominated by medium-skilled jobs.Skills in greatest demand in the medium-term future are a mix of technical skillsrelated to demand in the care,digital,and green economiesand soft skills.Table 2 provides an overview of known changes in the demand for skills resulting specifically from the three trans

298、itions.In particular,the nonroutine and cognitive nature of new jobs emphasizes the importance of higher-order cognitive and soft skills.Data from India,Indonesia,Thailand,and Viet Nam show that in those jobs that require nonroutine cognitive tasks,wages have grown faster over the past decade(footno

299、te 34).Analysis in Viet Nam is particularly instructive:the wages in emerging occupations are higher than in established occupations,but levels of employment in emerging occupations is“very low.”The job quality potential of new jobs is high,yet access and inclusion may be minimal due to the scarcity

300、 of new jobs.Table 2:Overview of Changes to Demand for Skills Resulting from the Triple TransitionTransition 1:Demographic transitionThe likelihood of skill obsolescence increases relative to age,so aging populations can imply declining competitiveness.Equipping new labor market entrants with releva

301、nt skills helps to maintain the productivity equilibrium.Equally,upskilling older workers can lengthen their economic contribution.For example,in Japan,a rapidly aging economy,it is expected that by 2060,at least 70%of the elderly population(aged 5064 years)will have postsecondary education,up from

302、40%in 2022.aThe expanding care economy calls for relevant skills to meet the demands of health care,wellness,social services,and community care across the age spectrum.The Singapore Government Agency,“MySkills Future”identified five skill clusters that feature prominently in the care economy:Conduct

303、 and Ethics,Stakeholder Management,Inclusive Practices,Reflective Practice,and Change Management Framework.b Upskilling can also enable pathways toward work with better-quality conditions.Transition 2:Digital transitionFrom basic to advanced,all digital skills are in demand in the digital economy,an

304、d become critical for labor market inclusion.About 70%of employers reported that basic and applied digital skills are now a“workplace essential”in Bangladesh,India,Indonesia,and the Philippines.cIn digital labor markets,it is increasingly the possession of skills,not qualifications,that matters.Digi

305、tal skills are of increasing relevance to the economic value(at least)of education,with acquisition increasingly through alternative,nonformal education channels,such as boot camps.In emerging fields like cybersecurity and robotics,advanced skills are required,but not necessarily advanced degrees,in

306、 so-called“new collar”jobs.dThe large share of“digital-dependent”jobs in the digital economy all require basic digital literacy.Skills that strengthen the human contribution of labor compared with technology will increasingly define digital work,i.e.,“soft”skills of critical thinking,reasoning,self-

307、reflection.continued on next page23Effects of Megatrends on Job Creation and Job Quality Transition 3:Green transitionNew skills associated with core green technologies will be at the medium or advanced skill level,both for existing and for incoming workers.Of new clean energy jobs,60%will require p

308、ostsecondary education.eAdaptation(“greening”)of existing skill sets appears to be the quantitatively greater skills agenda than the acquisition of entirely new skills focusing on core green technologies,such as renewable energy.“Greening”of jobs spans all skill levels.The share of green talent in t

309、he agriculture sector has grown to become the highest sector share in the Asia and Pacific region.Dairy and farming subsectors,for example,have seen an increasingly high intensity of“green skills”in Australia.The share of green talent in Indian farming and dairy sectors has also grown at a compound

310、annual growth rate of 6%.f a UNESCAP.2023.The Future of Work in the Context of Population Ageing in Asia and the Pacific.https:/www.unescap.org/kp/2023/future-work-context-population-ageing-asia-and-pacific.b SkillsFuture Singapore.2024.The Care Economy Explained:Trends,Skills&Jobs You Need to Know

311、About.https:/www.myskillsfuture.gov.sg/content/portal/en/career-resources/career-resources/job-skills-insights/the-care-economy-explained-trends-skills-jobs-you-need-to-know.html.c ADB.2022.Digital Jobs And Digital Skills.https:/www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/829711/digital-jobs-digital

312、-skills.pdf.d L.Kelley.2024.With New Collar Jobs,Advanced Skills Stand Out.New York Times.4 January.p.8.;C.Ammerman,B.Groysberg,and G.Romerty.2023.The New-Collar Workforce.Harvard Business Review.MarchApril.https:/hbr.org/2023/03/the-new-collar-workforce.e International Energy Agency.2022.World Ener

313、gy Employment.https:/ employment in the energy sector,at least 45%of jobs in 2019 required highly skilled workers,and 50%,medium-skilled workers.f LinkedIn Economic Graph.Global Skills Report 2022.https:/ skills shortage to adapt to changing labor demand creates a brake on the pace of the structural

314、 transformation.The transition to a digital,low-carbon,inclusive economy relies on both the skill composition of new entrants to the labor market,as well as the skills of existing workers and the institutional and enterprise facility with which re-skilling or upskilling is enabled.A skills gap in th

315、e region is well-documented.64 The pace of change makes gaps inevitable.The need for upskilling is sizable and ongoing.For example,across seven economies of the region,some 86 million workers need training in digital skills in a year.65 There is greater availability of skills for the digital transit

316、ion in higher-income countries in the region(Figure 6).Even in countries leading ICT industry and digital advances,such as the PRC and India,there is a scarcity of human capital for the digital economy.6664 See among others:Economist Impact.2023.Bridging the skills gap:fuelling careers and the econo

317、my in Asia-Pacific.The Economist Group.https:/ The seven countries are Australia,India,Indonesia,Japan,New Zealand,Singapore,and the Republic of Korea.AlphaBeta.2022.Building Digital Skills for the Changing Workforce in Asia Pacific And Japan(APJ).March.https:/ Cisco Systems prepared a global rankin

318、g of 143 countries on the basis of the availability of adequate skilled human resources in the country to build and maintain digital systems and support digital innovation in the country.Singapore leads the global,not just regional league.The Human Capital Index is a composite comprising the literac

319、y rate,educational attainment,internationally comparable test scores(e.g.,PISA),and labor force participation.The two most populated countries,the PRC and India,noted worldwide for their ICT industry and digital advances,score rather low in overall human resource readiness.Table 2continuedQuality Jo

320、bs and the Future of Work in Asia and the Pacific24A key issue in addressing the digital skills shortage is an“institutional bottleneck.”A recent Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development(OECD)survey found that the greatest skills shortage was in teachers and trainers equipped to impart

321、 relevant digital skills in demand by employers.In developing economies,skills acquisition is often impeded by outdated curricula and staff competencies among traditional vocational training institutions.ADB-commissioned research by PricewaterhouseCoopers(PwC)found major concerns among training inst

322、itutes about the quality of teachers for courses related to the Fourth Industrial Revolution(Figure 7).6767 A sample of around one-third of general education and technical and vocational education and training institutes was selected.Figure 6:Availability of Digital Human Capital,by CountryIncome Gr

323、ouping,20210.80.60.40.200.20.40.60.811.21.170.40.140.78GDP per capita by country grouping and Ciscosindex of digital human readiness Group IGroup IIGroup IIIGroup IVGDP=gross domestic product.Note:The figure shows the average Human Capital indicator score matched to the average,logged GDP per capita

324、 for each of the four country quartiles.Each quartile has an equal number(seven)of countries grouped by GDP per capita from highest to lowest from a sample of 28 countries in the region:Group I is highest GDP per capita and Group IV is lowest.Authors groupings of countries by income group:Group I in

325、cludes Singapore,Australia,New Zealand,Japan,the Republic of Korea,the PRC,and Malaysia;Group II includes Kazakhstan,Azerbaijan,Armenia,Thailand,Georgia,Mongolia,and Indonesia;Group III includes Viet Nam,the Philippines,Sri Lanka,India,Bangladesh,Uzbekistan,and the Lao Peoples Democratic Republic;Gr

326、oup IV includes Cambodia,Pakistan,the Kyrgyz Republic,Nepal,Myanmar,Tajikistan,and AfghanistanSource:World Bank data for GDP per capita;Cisco Human Capital component of Digital Readiness Index.https:/ of Megatrends on Job Creation and Job Quality Figure 7:Institutional Barriers to Fourth Industrial

327、Revolution Training Delivery and Curricula UpdatingResults of an ADB-Commissioned Survey in Bangladesh,Georgia,and Indonesia19%26%18%12%25%Unavailability of e-learning platformInadequate trainerson digitalentrepreneurship/4IR-related coursesInadequate trainersequipped withEnglish languageWe only hav

328、eintroductory courseson technologiesrelated with 4IRNot aligned withchanging labormarket requirementsBangladeshGeorgia23%42%66%18%13%Unavailability of e-learning platformInadequate trainerson digitalentrepreneurship/4IR-related coursesInadequate trainersequipped withEnglish languageWe only haveintro

329、ductory courseson technologiesrelated with 4IRNot aligned withchanging labormarket requirementsIndonesia13%27%23%16%21%Unavailability of e-learning platformInadequate trainers on digitalentrepreneurship/4IR-related coursesInadequate trainersequipped with EnglishlanguageWe only haveintroductory cours

330、eson technologiesrelated with 4IRNot aligned withchanging labormarket requirements4IR=Fourth Industrial Revolution.Note:Responses show%of educational institutions facing challenges in updating their curricula.Bangladesh N=121;Georgia N=31;Indonesia N=105.Source:ADB consultants report,PwC.Quality Job

331、s and the Future of Work in Asia and the Pacific26Skills play an important role in technology adoption,which can affect the pace of transformation through the triple transition.A technology-and-training combination leads to productivity gains in firms.68 Lack of capabilities among workers is perceiv

332、ed by firms as a high barrier to adopt and use technology.69 It is technological advancement that drives the productivity effects of environmental policies on firms and sectors.At the micro level,climate-smart digital tools for farmers can improve knowledge of weather and markets,and decrease time i

333、nefficiencies,leading to better yields and income generationwith induced effects on local consumption(FAO 2021).70 Skills required for work are constantly changing in line with shifting labor demand.Of existing“core skills”demanded by employers at the high end of the occupational spectrum of employees,44%will change over the next 5 years(footnote 56).Such change means“learnability”becomes a core c