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1、Trump Risk IndexThe global impact of a new US presidencyLONDON Economist Intelligence The Adelphi1-11 John Adam Street,London,WC2N 6HT United Kingdom Tel:+44(0)20 7576 8000 e-mail: GURUGRAM Economist Intelligence TEG India Pvt LtdSkootr Spaces,Unit No.1,12th Floor,Tower B,Building No.9DLF Cyber City

2、,Phase IIIGurugram 122002Haryana,IndiaTel:+91 124 6409486 e-mail:NEW YORK Economist Intelligence 900 Third Avenue16th FloorNew York,NY 10022United StatesTel:+1 212 541 0500e-mail:DUBAI Economist Intelligence PO Box No-450056,Office No-1301A Aurora Tower Dubai Media City Dubai,United Arab Emirates Te

3、l:+971 4 4463 147 e-mail: HONG KONG Economist Intelligence 1301 Cityplaza Four 12 Taikoo Wan Road Taikoo Shing,Hong Kong Tel:+852 2585 3888 e-mail:Intelligence that moves you forwardEIU is the research and analysis division of The Economist Group,a leading source of international business and world

4、affairs information.It provides accurate and impartial intelligence for corporations,governments,financial institutions and academic organisations,inspiring business leaders to identify opportunities and manage risks with confidence since 1946.Our solutionsCountry analysisaccess detailed economic an

5、d political analysis,data and forecasts for nearly 200 countries,as well as assessments of the business environment.Risk analysisidentify operational and financial threats around the world and understand the implications for your business.Industry analysisgain insight into key market trends with fiv

6、e-year forecasts and in-depth analysis for six industries in 70 major economies.Custom briefings and presentationsinform your strategy,develop executive knowledge and engage audiences.Our team is available to book for boardroom briefings,conferences and other professional events.Contact us for more

7、informationTo find out more about our solutions and the different ways we can help you,please get in touch or visit .TRUMP RISK INDEX THE GLOBAL IMPACT OF A NEW US PRESIDENCY The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 20241The US presidential election in November will be a pivotal event for the global

8、economy and geopolitics.We expect an extremely close contest between Democrat and Republican candidates.The presumptive Republican nominee,Donald Trump,would initiate sweeping policy changes in areas ranging from trade policy to national security if he returns to office.The global ramifications of t

9、hese shifts mean that the implications of a Trump presidency are worth exploring fully.We have developed an index to assess individual country exposure to a Trump presidency.The Trump Risk Index(TRI)uses quantitative indicators to measure the broad exposure of the USs 70 largest trading partners.Our

10、 overall risk score is based on an assessment of vulnerability across three areastrade,immigration and securitywhere we would expect important policy changes under Mr Trump.Higher tariffs and trade restrictions(40%index weight):With some exemptions and carve-outs,we think that Mr Trump would follow

11、through on his stated intention to impose a blanket tariff on US imports;he has proposed a 10%flat rate,although we believe that this would ultimately be watered down.Additional punitive measures on politically sensitive imports like steel would be likely.Trump Risk Index:the global impact of a new

12、US presidencyTrump Risk Index(TRI):country exposure to policy changes expectedunder a Trump administrationTRI score:0=least exposed,100=most exposedNGAUNZGRITTRPTJOBHVEMYCOSKHUROCZBEFRNICRSVLVDKRUDOMXZAMAARCLCYMTILSAOMBRPEBNPHSIATHRBGCHESINTHPAHKTWKRJPPLLTDELUNLHNGTGBIEEECAFISENOIDSGVNCN070+Exposure

13、 scoreSource:EIU.Copyright The Economist Intelligence Unit 2024.All rights reserved.TRUMP RISK INDEX THE GLOBAL IMPACT OF A NEW US PRESIDENCY The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 20242 Security burden-sharing(40%index weight):US military aid would become more conditional,and Mr Trump would seek t

14、o rebalance key defence relationships.A Trump administration would intensify pressure on defence allies to make larger financial and materiel contributions.Tighter border and security controls(20%index weight):We expect that a Trump administration would increase funding for border-wall protection an

15、d other deterrence strategies.There would be an increased focus on migrant expulsions and some form of additional restrictions on legal pathways for international labour migration and study.We assign higher weightings in the TRI to the trade and security pillars and a lower weighting to immigration

16、to reflect the relative importance of these indicators in determining the broad,economy-wide impact of these changes on a country.Most of the indicators are assessed in relative terms,such as being benchmarked against a countrys GDP or population,but some are treated in absolute terms.We apply a z-s

17、core system to score the indicators on an indexed range of zero(least exposure)to 100(most exposure)and use that as the basis for ranking the geographies.TRUMP RISK INDEX THE GLOBAL IMPACT OF A NEW US PRESIDENCY The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 20243The TRI shows that US allies and partners h

18、ave among the highest overall exposure to policy changes under Mr Trump,as they have the deepest trade,security and cultural links with the US.This higher level of dependency also exposes them to major changes in the direction of US policy.Mexico ranks as the most exposed country overall,with an ind

19、ex score of 71.4,driven by its high trade and immigration exposure.Several other Latin American countries lie in the top ten most exposed owing to their economic and cultural links with the US.The NATO(or equivalent)allies of Germany and Japan are also included among the more exposed(ranked third an

20、d seventh respectively).Besides running large bilateral trade surpluses with the USa major concern for Mr Trumpeach is also reliant on US security provision and spends a relatively low share of GDP on defence.Countries with low exposure to changes expected under Mr Trump are generally those with mor

21、e distant or less reliant ties with the US.Australia is an exception and ranks as the second-least exposed country in our index,as it combines distant trade relations with the US with a balanced security relationship.Saudi Arabia(70th)is the least exposed,with a TRI score of 9.4;its trade links with

22、 the US have diminished in importance,as the US has emerged as an energy exporter in its own US allies and partners have most reason to be worriedClose US partners are among the most exposed to a Trump presidency10 most exposed countries in the Trump Risk Index(TRI)TRI scores:0=least exposure;100=mo

23、st exposureTradeSecurityImmigrationOverallexposure scoreMexico100.056.344.471.4Costa Rica33.8100.027.859.1Germany55.572.87.752.9Dominican Republic29.056.791.452.6Panama13.1100.027.750.8China76.746.84.750.4Japan53.865.38.049.2El Salvador18.252.0100.048.1Vietnam64.439.827.047.1Honduras26.751.772.445.8

24、Source:EIU.Copyright The Economist Intelligence Unit 2024.All rights reserved.TRUMP RISK INDEX THE GLOBAL IMPACT OF A NEW US PRESIDENCY The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 20244right,and it spends heavily on defence(including on US arms).Links between the US and Saudi Arabia were warmer under th

25、e first Trump administration than they have been under Mr Biden.With its ties with the US disentangled in the wake of its invasion of Ukraine,Russia(63rd)is also prominent among countries with a low exposure.More distant US partners have less exposure to a Trump presidency10 least exposed geographie

26、s in the TRITRI scores:0=least exposure;100=most exposureSaudi Arabia15.00.017.39.4Australia0.020.37.99.7Poland1.322.81.910.0Morocco4.719.95.010.8Greece13.415.08.713.1Oman22.86.37.413.1Finland17.523.76.117.7Russia19.924.12.118.1Netherlands5.440.18.719.9Croatia4.144.55.420.5TradeSecurityImmigrationOv

27、erallexposure scoreSource:EIU.Copyright The Economist Intelligence Unit 2024.All rights reserved.TRUMP RISK INDEX THE GLOBAL IMPACT OF A NEW US PRESIDENCY The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 20245Protectionism under a Trump presidency would create uncertainty in the global trade landscape.The US

28、 goods trade deficit is a primary economic concern for Mr Trump,and he has indicated plans to address it if he wins the presidency,including through the use of the sort of punitive tariffs that were used regularly during his previous term in office.A geographys bilateral trade balance with the US ha

29、s therefore been weighted heavily in the TRI trade sub-index to assess exposure,alongside indicators such as the direction of the trade balance and shipments to the US of politically sensitive items such as steel,aluminium and automotives,which are more likely to be subjected to tariff imposition.Fr

30、ee-trade agreement(FTA)status with the US is included as a countervailing Trade:tariffs and protectionismMajor US trading partners most exposed to trade policy change underMr TrumpTrade sub-index scores(10 most exposed geographies)0=least exposure;100=most exposure1Mexico99.053.926.070.7100.00100.02

31、China100.049.737.114.716.510076.73Canada52.654.728.4100.0100.0070.44Vietnam78.752.230.58.431.410064.45Germany65.652.348.438.910.610055.56Japan58.352.140.046.124.010053.87Taiwan49.852.430.77.925.910041.38India49.351.924.19.318.110037.29Ireland28.651.362.90.047.710037.210South Korea44.655.636.162.722.

32、9036.5CountryBilateral trade balanceTrend in bilateral tradeCurrent-account balanceSensitive exports to the USReliance on US in goods tradeFree-trade agreement with USOverall trade pillar scoreSource:EIU.Note.For bilateral trade balance,trend in bilateral trade and current-account balance,wider or w

33、idening surplus=more exposure.Sensitive exports to the US include steel,aluminium and cars;more sensitive exports=more exposure.For reliance on US ingoods trade,higher reliance=more exposure.For FTAs,no FTA=more exposure.Copyright The Economist Intelligence Unit 2024.All rights reserved.TRUMP RISK I

34、NDEX THE GLOBAL IMPACT OF A NEW US PRESIDENCY The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 20246indicator:we still think that an FTA would offer some protection by making it more difficult to impose higher tariffs,although this may not always be a deterrent,as evidenced by Mr Trumps pressure on South Kor

35、ea to renegotiate its trade agreement with the US in 2018.Some of the biggest economic partners of the US rank highest for trade exposure.Mexico and Canada,neighbours of the US that together form the United States-Mexico-Canada trade agreement,are among the most exposed economies.Both have large tra

36、de surpluses with the US and export high volumes of sensitive goods.Chinas prominence is not surprising,given that it still has comfortably the largest bilateral trade surplus with the US of any economy;Mr Trump has threatened to remove its most-favoured-nation trading status(or,more specifically in

37、 the US context,revoking“permanent normal trade relations”with China)if elected.The high exposure of India and Vietnam reflects the larger role that they are now playing in US-focused supply chains.Germany and Ireland are assessed to be the most exposed geographies in Europe,partly driven by their s

38、izeable current-account surpluses.Australia and New Zealand have among the lowest direct trade exposure.Although both are security allies of the US,they are much more dependent on China and wider Asia in terms of trade US trade defcit with nearshoring/friendshoring partners widens,while that with Ch

39、ina reducesUS bilateral goods and services trade deficit by market(US$bn)ChinaGermanyJapanMexicoIndiaVietnamSouth KoreaTaiwanIrelandCanada2013201420152016201720182019202020212022202310001002003004005006007008009001,000Source:US Department of Commerce;EIU.Copyright The Economist Intelligence Unit 202

40、4.All rights reserved.TRUMP RISK INDEX THE GLOBAL IMPACT OF A NEW US PRESIDENCY The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 20247relations.Among European countries,Croatia,the Netherlands,Poland and Spain face less exposure,given that they are net importers of US goods and services,and that the US accou

41、nts for a small share of their overall merchandise trade.Jordan and Morocco are seen to have limited vulnerability,helped by their bilateral FTAs with the US.TRUMP RISK INDEX THE GLOBAL IMPACT OF A NEW US PRESIDENCY The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 20248The US approach to global security will

42、 shift under a Trump administration.We assess country exposure to a more isolationist,“America first”foreign policy in the security sub-index of the TRI.This category includes indicators such as reliance on US military aid and the local presence of US troops.Mr Trump is known for his belief that US

43、defence alliances need to be rebalanced with counterparties contributing more.As a result,a countrys spending on defence(in terms of share of GDP)is weighted heavily in the sub-index.We also consider foreign military sales,taking the view that more spending on US arms will lead to greater insulation

44、 from potential security changes under Mr Trump.Security:adjusting to a more isolationist US Some US allies are vulnerable to a more isolationist US security policyunder Mr TrumpSecurity sub-index scores(10 most exposed geographies)0=least exposure;100=most exposure1Costa Rica100.00.9100.099.2100.01

45、00.02Panama100.00.7100.099.2100.0100.03Germany0.0100.076.378.90.072.84Bulgaria75.50.473.798.50.066.55Japan0.0100.081.710.00.065.36Bahrain3.3100.041.591.150.060.77Ireland0.00.895.899.3100.060.58Malta0.63.791.399.4100.059.29Guatemala0.60.492.599.0100.058.710Estonia67.31.564.398.20.058.5CountryUS milit

46、ary aidUS troop presenceMilitary spendingSpending on US armsDefence alliance with USOverall security sub-index scoreSource:EIU.Note:For US military aid,higher military aid=more exposure.For US troop presence,higher troop presence=more exposure.For military spending and spending on US arms,lower spen

47、ding=more exposure.For defence alliance with US,no alliance=more exposure.Copyright The Economist Intelligence Unit 2024.All rights reserved.TRUMP RISK INDEX THE GLOBAL IMPACT OF A NEW US PRESIDENCY The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 20249Some close US allies are assessed to have the highest se

48、curity exposure.NATO allies in eastern and central Europe,such as Bulgaria,Estonia and Latvia,rank highly.This will be a cause for concern given their potential vulnerability if relations between NATO and Russia deteriorate into outright conflict.Germany,which hosts large numbers of US troops and sp

49、ends a low sum of GDP on defence,is ranked third;meanwhile,although Japan shares some similar characteristics,it is evaluated as slightly less exposed owing to its higher spending on US arms.Several Latin American countries including Costa Rica and Panama that are in receipt of US military aid but h

50、ave no or limited defence spending of their own are also at the top of the ranking.There are some surprising inclusions among those less exposed to security policy changes.Among major NATO(or equivalent)allies,Australia,Finland,Greece and Poland are evaluated as the least exposed,bolstered by their

51、own heavy defence spending and US arms purchases.Oman and Saudi Arabia are important Middle Eastern defence partners of the US,but have limited exposure to changes under a Trump administration owing to their own extensive military expenditure.Non-aligned countries such as India and Singapore also ha

52、ve fairly low exposure,despite close and co-operative military relationships with the US,because they are largely reliant on their own defence resources.US allies with low defence spending will be among the most exposed tosecurity policy changes under Mr TrumpMilitary expenditure as a share of GDP;%

53、;av of 2022-230.01.02.03.04.05.0IsraelGreecePolandSouth KoreaLithuaniaEstoniaLatviaUKFranceFinlandHungaryAustraliaSlovakiaCroatiaBulgariaDenmarkItalyNorwaySpainPortugalCzech RepublicGermanyNetherlandsSwedenTurkeySloveniaPhilippinesCanadaBelgiumJapanLuxembourgNATO 2%militaryspending targetSource:EIU.

54、Copyright The Economist Intelligence Unit 2024.All rights reserved.Note.Not all countries are NATO members.TRUMP RISK INDEX THE GLOBAL IMPACT OF A NEW US PRESIDENCY The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 202410Tighter US immigration and border policies under a prospective Trump administration will

55、have global spillovers.Immigrants to the US will often remit employment earnings to their home countries,while those studying in US institutions who later return home will typically do so with improved skills and prospects.We look to capture country dependence on these channels by including in the T

56、RI immigration sub-index indicators such as economic reliance on remittances sent from the US and issuance of immigrant and student visas.Mr Trump took a tough stance on immigration during his first termas suggested by the construction of a border wall and increased immigration enforcementand the is

57、sue is playing a central role in his campaign this year.Immigration:remittance-reliant economies are most exposed Latin America is most exposed to tighter immigration policy undera Trump presidencyImmigration sub-index scores(10 most exposed geographies)0=least exposure;100=most exposure1El Salvador

58、100.063.715.5100.0100.02100.074.539.659.891.43Honduras33.050.826.0100.072.44Guatemala20.331.611.2100.059.75Mexico31.1100.017.428.444.46Hong Kong8.833.896.20.237.97South Korea5.36.3100.01.534.38Taiwan4.26.399.50.633.49Nicaragua18.621.29.545.633.210Singapore1.711.199.70.032.7CountryImmigrant visas iss

59、uedNon-immigrant visas(ex student)visas issued Student visas issuedRemittance inflows from USOverall immigration sub-index scoreSource:EIU.Note.For immigrant visas,non-immigrant visas(ex-students)and student visas issued,more visas issued=more exposure.For remittance inflows from US,higher remittanc

60、es=more exposure.Copyright The Economist Intelligence Unit 2024.All rights reserved.DominicanRepublicTRUMP RISK INDEX THE GLOBAL IMPACT OF A NEW US PRESIDENCY The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 202411Smaller Latin American economies dominate the immigration sub-index in terms of high exposure.R

61、emittances from the US,for example,are equivalent to at least 15%of GDP in El Salvador,Honduras and Guatemala,indicating significant economic exposure if immigration policies were to tighten.Similar to his first term,Mr Trump would probably increase restrictions on skilled worker H1-B and other immi

62、grant visas,curtailing an important channel for legal immigration.Although India is the largest recipient of the H1-B visas,its relative exposure is moderate owing to its large population;instead,Latin American countries have higher exposure for this indicator.Hong Kong and Singapore feature within

63、the top ten of exposed geographies owing to the large number of student visas issued to their citizens(relative to the local population);these flows contribute to their role as multilingual business hubs in Asia.European countries are prominent among less exposed countries.They have generally low ex

64、posure in relation to immigration and border changes,according to the TRI,given relatively limited emigration for work and study to the US.Indonesia,with the worlds largest Muslim population,ranks as the least exposed,with its emigration flows focused more on other destinations within Asia.Perceptio

65、ns that the US has become less friendly to Muslims may have played a role in curbing work,travel and study flows.Mr Trump labelled travel restrictions targeting seven countries introduced during his first term in office a“Muslim ban”.The US is the largest source of remittances for economies in Latin

66、 America1El Salvador23%6.72Honduras21%5.93Guatemala16%14.14Dominican Republic8%8.05Nicaragua6%0.96Mexico4%52.67Philippines3%12.88Vietnam2%7.99Jordan1%0.610Nigeria1%5.7CountryRemittance from the US(as a%of GDP)Remittance inflows fromthe US(US$bn)Source:KNOMAD/World Bank Bilateral Remittance Matrix 20

67、21(December 2022);EIU.Copyright The Economist Intelligence Unit 2024.All rights reserved.TRUMP RISK INDEX THE GLOBAL IMPACT OF A NEW US PRESIDENCY The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 202412Exposure is not the same as impact.Governments and businesses can consider strategies to minimise risk asso

68、ciated with policy changes that are likely under Mr Trump.A potential Trump administration is likely to perceive positively Germany and Japans recent commitment to raise defence spending,for example.Pre-emptive steps could be taken to reduce trade risks.Ensuring appropriate controls to prevent the r

69、e-export to the US of Chinese goods to avoid tariffs would help to deflect one likely line of US criticism.State-directed purchases of US agriculture and energy commodities could assuage concerns over trade imbalances.Companies that export politically sensitive items such as steel to the US could co

70、nsider market diversification to hedge higher tariff risks.Fostering close leader-to-leader relations may also help.Mr Trumps first term showed that his decision-making could be swayed by interactions with other leaders;Japans then prime minister,Abe Shinzo,was able to secure trade concessions for h

71、is country through the careful courting of Mr Trump.It is likely,too,that some leaders will see in Mr Trump an ideological ally with whom they can do business and perhaps secure benefits for their countries.Hungarys prime minister,Viktor Orban,or Argentinas president,Javier Milei,stand out as likely

72、“Trumpists”in regions where most other political leaders are likely to prove ideologically distant.Mr Trumps return represents a risk for some countries,but not for all.Strategies to reduce Trump risk The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 202413EIU Viewpoint:Country Analysis Preparing you for what

73、s aheadUnderstand a countrys political,policy and economic outlook with our award-winning forecasts,analysis and data.Our experts assess the global dynamics that impact organisations,so you can plan and operate effectively.Whats included?Global and regional outlook spanning politics,economics and ma

74、rket-moving topics Daily insights on the developments that impact the future outlook Executive summaries of country forecasts over the medium-term outlook Medium-term country forecasts on 200 countries political and economic landscape Long-term country forecasts on the structural trends shaping 80 m

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76、e business environment Thematic analysis of the cross-cutting issues that our experts expect to shape the global outlookHow Country Analysis helps you to stay ahead Expansive coverage-global,regional and country-level analysis for nearly 200 markets,delivered by our analysts.Every month,20,000 data

77、series are updated,enabling you to adapt and plan ahead.Challenging consensus-stay ahead of your competitors.For more than 70 years our forecasting teams have made bold calls,accurately.A nuanced approach-intuitively designed to address politics,policy and the economy,our methodology includes detail

78、ed insights in addition to data.Robust,accurate information-apply insights with confidence.Our forecasts and analysis are non-biased and rigorously researched.To arrange a demonstration of EIUs Country Analysis service or to discuss the content and features included,please visit 2024 The Economist I

79、ntelligence Unit Limited.All rights reserved.Neither this publication nor any part of it may be reproduced,stored in a retrieval system,or transmitted in any form or by any means,electronic,mechanical,photocopying,recording or otherwise,without the prior permission of The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited.While every effort has been taken to verify the accuracy of this information,The Economist Intelligence Unit Ltd.cannot accept any responsibility or liability for reliance by any person on this report or any of the information,opinions or conclusions set out in this report.