《麥肯錫：2024年全球銀行業年度回顧報告：邁入高速發展快車道-超越行業平均增長和盈利能力（英文版）（27頁）.pdf》由會員分享，可在線閱讀，更多相關《麥肯錫：2024年全球銀行業年度回顧報告：邁入高速發展快車道-超越行業平均增長和盈利能力（英文版）（27頁）.pdf（27頁珍藏版）》請在三個皮匠報告上搜索。

1、Attaining escape velocity Global Banking Annual Review 2024October 2024This report is a collaborative effort by Asheet Mehta,Karim Thomas,Klaus Dallerup,Luca Pancaldi,Miklos Dietz,Pradip Patiath,Valeria Laszlo,and Vik Sohoni,representing views from McKinseys Financial Services Practice.ContentsExecu

2、tive summary 2The winners 13How to win(execution)18 Management quotient as 21 a differentiatorThe industry 3Attaining escape velocity 12The past two years have been the best for banking since before the global financial crisis(GFC)of 200709,with healthy profitability,capital,and liquidity.But even t

3、hough banking is the single largest profit-generating sector in the world,the market is skeptical of long-term value creation and ranks banking dead last among sectors on price-to-book multiples.In addition to a mix of macroeconomic factors,there are also some industry-specific ones:Labor productivi

4、ty growth in banking has been mixed,even though banks spend the highest proportion of revenues across sectors on tech.Regulatory changes around the world continue to require investment.The more profitable pools in banking are witnessing competition from focused attackers(including private credit,pay

5、ments,and wealth management).The recent lift in performance has largely been buoyed by rising interest rates.Despite the recent value creation,over the past decade,the sector has eroded economic value when measured against cost of capital.So will the liftoff in overall industry results achieved in 2

6、023 give way to the gravitational pull of the industrys recent history,as questions about banking fundamentals persist?Looking at banks that outperformed over the past five to ten years could hold the answer to how banks might achieve escape velocity.We identified these winners through multiple anal

7、ytical lenses.What we found is that they win through a combination of smart moves on three structural dimensions(selecting segments carefully,finding scale where it can matter,and strategically locating themselves,whether geographically or in the value chain)and rigorous operational execution across

8、 a range of capabilities(for example,analytics,marketing effectiveness,operating model,and tech).For some contexts where we modeled the relative effects,execution had two times the impact of structure,though both were important.No bank we found among the winners appeared to be outperforming with onl

9、y an average structural context nor being propelled solely by its structural position.The good news for the rest of the industry is that things can be improved.Indeed,about 10 percent of the industry improved as much as five deciles of return on tangible equity over the past five years(though conver

10、sely,roughly two-thirds of the industry stayed within two deciles of their prior performance).For banking to recover its multiple,management teams will need to conjure the dynamism of these winners.We believe this“management quotient”will be what makes the real difference in the remaining years of t

11、he 2020s.Executive summary2Global Banking Annual Review 2024:Attaining escape velocityTheres some solace in the witticism about it not being the end if its not fine.But recently,things have been fine indeed for banking,so what does that say about the endgame?In fact,the past two years have been the

12、best for banking since before the Great Recession.Globally,banks generated$7 trillion in revenue(Exhibit 1)and$1.1 trillion in net income,with return on tangible equity(ROTE)reaching 11.7 percent (Exhibit 2).Banks have returned to healthy levels of capital(12.8 percent common equity tier one capital

13、 divided by risk-weighted assets)and liquidity(77.2 percent),which both improved over 2022.In fact,banking generated more total profit than any other sector around the world(Exhibit 3).The industryEverything is going to be fine in the end.If its not fine,its not the end.Unknown(often attributed to O

14、scar Wilde)Exhibit 1PrivatecapitalOtheralternativesDigitalassets 159655278669103932604960107961621712Global fnancial intermediation,2023,$trillionShare of total annual revenue from globalfnancialintermediation,by type,2023,%In 2023,the global fnancial system intermediated$410 trillion in assets,gene

15、rating about$7 trillion in revenue.Sourceof fundsOf-balance sheetOn-balance sheetBanks bonds,other liabilities,and equityCorporate andpublic loansRetailloansSecurities heldon balancesheetPersonaldepositsCorporateand publicdepositsSovereignwealth funds/pension fundsRetailAUM1Insuranceand pensionAUMOt

16、herinstitutionalAUM2Use offunds410410Other assetsGovernmentbondsEquitysecuritiesSecuritizedloansCorporatebondsOtherinvestments31Assets under management.2Including endowments and foundations,corporate investments.3Including real estate,commodities,cross-border deployments,derivatives.4Figures do not

17、sum to 100%,because of rounding.5Net interest income from deposits considered in retail and corporate banking.6Includes revenues from real estate funds,infrastructure funds,hedge funds,commodities funds,absolute return,liquid alternatives,as well as from mining,buying and selling of digital assets v

18、ia exchanges,custody,payments,and liquidity providers.Source:McKinsey PanoramaMcKinsey&CompanyRetail banking33Investmentbanking 5Market infrastructure 2Corporate and commercial banking28Wealth and asset management14Payments516Other6 3$6.8trillion total3Global Banking Annual Review 2024:Attaining esc

19、ape velocityExhibit 3Exhibit 2Strong proftability,returnon tangible equity,%Key industry measuresHealthy capital,common equity tier 1 as a ratio of risk-weighted assets,%Sustainable liquidity,total loans as a ratio of deposits,%Source:S&P Capital IQ;McKinsey Panorama;McKinsey Value IntelligenceBanki

20、ng revenues,return on tangible equity,and liquidity all grew in 2023,maintaining healthy levels across the board.McKinsey&Company201121average10.220222023202220232022202311.9+0.2percentagepoints78.611.512.212.875.577.211.7+0.6+1.7Net income ofpublicly traded companies,by industry,2023,1$billion1Base

21、d on 35,000 publicly traded companies.Source:McKinsey Value IntelligenceThe global banking industry generated$1.15 trillion in net income in 2023,roughly equal to the combined energy and industrials industries.McKinsey&CompanyTotal 4,772Business services 5424%Real estate 42Healthcare 30Global bankin

22、g industry1,151Energy663Technology,media,andtelecommunications 597Insurance249Pharma andmedical 144Conglomerates 141Infrastructure,travel,andlogistics 197Consumer429Materials314Industrials618Nondepositoryfnancialinstitutions 1424Global Banking Annual Review 2024:Attaining escape velocitySo why the f

23、oreboding?Simply,global banking is valued at a price-to-book ratio of 0.9the lowest of all industrieswhich suggests the market is expecting the industry will erode economic value as a whole(Exhibit 4).And this challenge exists across most markets(Exhibit 5).There are many potential reasons for it:Th

24、e improvement in returns could be fleeting.Looking back,while the industry has reduced costs and kept credit quality high,the improvement in returns since 2021 appears to be largely owed to rising interest rates (Exhibit 6).Modeling,while imperfect,suggests that without rate support,industry ROTE in

25、 Exhibit 4Price-to-book ratio,2003231Price-to-book ratio,by industry,202311Average excluding outliers and frms with a negative price-to-book ratio.Based on 15,000 publicly traded companies.Source:McKinsey Panorama;McKinsey Value Intelligence Capital markets place a large and growing valuation discou

26、nt on banking relative to other industries.McKinsey&Company00.51.01.52.02.53.03.500.51.01.52.02.53.03.568%30%2005201020152020Global banking industryAll other industriesTechnology,media,andtelecom4.74.54.13.73.03.02.72.31.91.81.71.41.30.9BusinessservicesConsumerIndustrialsTravel,logistics,and infrast

27、ructureMaterialsConglomeratesGlobalbankingindustryPharmaceuticaland medicalproductsHealthcareNondepositoryfnancialinstitutionsEnergyInsuranceRealestate5Global Banking Annual Review 2024:Attaining escape velocityExhibit 6Exhibit 5Source:McKinsey Panorama;McKinsey Value Intelligence The valuation chal

28、lenge in the banking industry exists across all markets.McKinsey&CompanyJapanUKChinaGermanyNigeriaAustraliaSouth AfricaUSBrazilCanadaIndiaSaudi Arabia419027208655605792269682Share of institutions with price-to-book ratio 1.0 means expected value creation.Source:McKinsey Panorama;McKinsey Value Intel

29、ligence1313Global Banking Annual Review 2024:Attaining escape velocityThe path is more common now In good news,higher performance is becoming more distributed across the industry(perhaps aided by the regulated nature of different markets).Today,14 percent of banks account for 80 percent of the econo

30、mic profit in the industry,up from 11 percent in 2013(Exhibit 13).The figure is almost five times the average of all other industries,where performance is far more concentrated in a few players(Exhibit 14).The outperformance can be large Our analysis of TSR outperformers(in the United States)shows t

31、hat theres a wide dispersion in performance:14 points between the top and bottom deciles across 90 top US banks between 2013 and 2023.Four operational metrics,along with avoiding risk,largely explain most of the outperformance of TSR:revenue growth(34 percent);better net interest margin management(3

32、4 percent)from lower cost;stickier deposit-gathering strategies(lowering the cost of funding)or better distribution and credit risk management into more lucrative lending activity,in both cases improving NIMs;growing fee income(16 percent)from expansion in advisory services,wealth management,and oth

33、er fee-heavy businesses;and cost efficiency(5 percent),which while significant,has only a minimal explanatory effect on TSR(perhaps because costs are often in the banks control and many do manage down costs rapidly,so TSR becomes less differentiating).Many other metrics dont contribute materially to

34、 TSR(for example,asset size at the institutional level,once again emphasizing institutional scale doesnt matter as much).Calculating these kinds of metrics for your bank can help determine whether your bank is truly investing behind them.For example,do the projects in the tech portfolio support thos

35、e outcomes?Where you operate matters About one-third of these institutions are in attractive banking markets(for example,Australia,Canada,and India)that demonstrate high margins and strong Exhibit 12Pharma and medical productsHealthcareBusiness servicesIndustrialsTechnology,media,and telecomConsumer

36、MaterialsTravel,logistics,and infrastructureEnergyReal estateConglomeratesInsuranceGlobal banking industryShare of companies1 with a price-to-book ratio of 1 and price-to-earnings ratio of 13,by industry,2023,%1Based on 17,000 publicly traded companies.Source:McKinsey Value IntelligenceAcross all ot

37、her industries,62 percent of companies have a price-to-book ratio above one and a price-to-earnings ratio of more than 13.McKinsey&Company84777774746153494241373614Overall share of companies outside banking industrythat meet bankings performance criteria6214Global Banking Annual Review 2024:Attainin

38、g escape velocityExhibit 13Economic-proft(EP)distribution,global banking industry,%of institutions1Excludes institutions that merged or ceased operations since 2013.Source:McKinsey Value Intelligence;McKinsey analysisThe top 14 percent of banks generate 80 percent of economic proft,up from 11 percen

39、t of banks a decade ago.McKinsey&Company2013(n=503)2023(n=4811)2.52.50Economic proft,$billion(width of each bar above represents$50 million)2.52.5044+5642+585101520250510152025Total EP$28 billionTotal EP$116 billion0Economic proft,$billion(width of each bar above represents$50 million)fundamentals(f

40、or example,demand for credit,demographics,and economic growth)(Exhibit 15).Within countries,too,operating in economically vibrant regions naturally confers growth advantages.The same story plays out with portfolio mix.Some subsectors,like payments,generate ROEs of 14 percent and price-to-book multip

41、les of six.While others,like universal and commercial banking,generate 12 percent ROTEs,with price-to-book multiples of 0.8.Performance also matters Endowment or structureor where you operateisnt the only thing that matters;performance matters too.Institutions have achieved and sustained high levels

42、 of performance through deliberate strategic choices around structure and bold moves around execution.These winners operate across all sectors and geographies.These are the institutions you might be interested in unpacking and perhaps replicating.15Global Banking Annual Review 2024:Attaining escape

43、velocityEconomic-proft(EP)distribution,2023,%of institutionsSource:McKinsey Value Intelligence;McKinsey analysisEconomic proft is more distributed in banking than in other industries.McKinsey&CompanyGlobal bankingindustry(n=514)All otherindustries(n=16,000)2.52.50Economic proft,$billion(width of eac

44、h bar above represents$50 million)2.52.5058+4241+59010203040Total EP$121 billionTotal EP$884 billionEconomic proft,$billion(width of each bar above represents$50 million)Exhibit 14What do these banks look like?Since comparing widely varying geographies is pointless,we normalized some features to com

45、mon benchmarks.The outperformers revenue growth is 1.5 times their local GDP growth,their fee-to-revenue ratio is typically 40 percent or higher,their efficiency ratio is lower than 50 percent,and their risk costs are generally well-managed enough through the cycle to be significantly below their re

46、ference industrys costs(in amplitude as well as absolute average).Where to compete(structure)Winners have at least one of three structural markers that drive their performance:Picking and decisively committing to the right segments for growth while avoiding the trap of over-rotating into them.Invest

47、ing in growth by client segment or product type but not tipping to a point of concentrating exposure is crucial.Some winners have grown their commercial 16Global Banking Annual Review 2024:Attaining escape velocityExhibit 15Share of public banks with a price-to-book ratio of 1 and price-to-earnings

48、ratio of 13,by region,2023,%Note:N=786,of which 112 are outperforming.Source:McKinsey Panorama;McKinsey Value Intelligence Value creation is uneven across the world.McKinsey&CompanyCanadaand USEmergingAsiaAfrica andMiddle EastEurope5DevelopedAsiaCaribbean andLatin AmericaGreaterChina721141198Global:

49、14portfolios that inherently carry lower expense ratios,thereby lowering the institutions overall expenses.Other winners have leveraged their existing platforms in sectors that carry higher ROEs,like wealth and payments;a notable example is the mass affluent segment that,in many countries,composes t

50、he largest profit pool of wealth.Others have doubled down in capital markets to drive ROE-enhancing fee income growth.For most,these changes have been a handful of points of tilt in direction,not massive swings.But these winners have reallocated meaningful investmentsin money,management bandwidth,an

51、d talent to those tilts,and that has made a difference to their returns.Finding scale where it matters to drive productivity and acquisition.While in some countries,finding economies of scale is elusive at the overall industry level,scale does exist in pockets,and finding out how to harness it can t

52、hus have a significant effect.Some winners have found those pockets and doubled down on their position to create more margin by moving up the scale curve.Examples include finding economies of scale in marketing spending;in segments like retirement and wealth brokerage;and in parts of custody operati

53、ons or customer servicing that are more standardized and where economies of scale therefore exist.Additionally,scale can be local,regional,national,or global,and the best banks maximize the scale benefits in key areas around these axes.Optimizing locationeither geographically or in the customer valu

54、e chain.Positioning is clearly important,and some banks have chosen to shape their footprint either transnationally in countries or domestically in states and provinces that show higher-than-average economic prospects.Other banks have occupied strategic positions along the value chain.For example,a

55、European mortgage institution has moved up the commerce funnel by offering a home search capability to consumers rather than being relegated to the bottom of the funnel,where consumers looked for financing after finding their home.17Global Banking Annual Review 2024:Attaining escape velocityExecutio

56、n excellence also provides an edge.For many institutions,there are limits to what can be done structurally(for example,shifting geographies and entering more attractive lines of business).More disciplined focus can be on targeting specific profit pools,more granular pricing capabilities,and better t

57、ailored customer segments for growth,among other approaches.To illustrate some examples,we looked among the winners to curate a selection of strategies that different institutions have deployed to propel their returns.No institution can excel at everything,but each winner does excel at something.The

58、 following are some execution-based approaches we observed among the winners across the globe:Deepening relationships(one customer-centric bank and ecosystems).This is particularly a factor in the corporate space that has seen less of this strategy than of the consumer approach,which benefited from

59、a branch system that naturally served up many products via a common channel.Delivering the right mix of mutually reinforcing businesses across balance-sheet-intensive and fee-generating activities(for example,bringing a one-bank approach to deposits,lending,wealth,and other solutions,like payments p

60、roducts)spreads the cost of acquisition of an expensive customer across more of the bank.Some winners excel at providing wealth services to corporate customers;others offer higher ROE payments products to small businesses that otherwise would remain just credit customers.In emerging markets and incr

61、easingly in more mature banking markets,winners have been adding services beyond banking(such as loyalty,coupons,vouchers,personalized offers,marketplace services,gamification,and integrating with lifestyle and social media apps)to increase customer engagement and usefulness.This doesnt just reduce

62、churn to near zero but also deepens relationships substantially.In some cases,there may also be substantial third-party revenue from these carefully designed ecosystems.Achieving retail or small and medium-size business(SMB)customer primacy through a personalized funnel.A North American leader has r

63、etooled itself to be able to create a more personalized experience for its customers,all the way from marketing to service.It has focused on products like wealth and home equity to create rapid cycle propositions(as many as four marketing campaigns a month).It has attached that to a segmentation tha

64、t drives who answers the phone,the script used,and ultimately what kinds of ongoing servicing support the customer experiences(for example,at what points it checks in on the customer and what types of offers it mails to them).The company uses a dashboard to update all the key metrics in almost real

65、time,enabling self-generating improvement loops.This has resulted in a dramatically lower cost of acquisition and decreased customer attrition levels,resulting in longer lifetime value.Leveraging granular pricing and risk selection.A leader that had long prided itself on both customer access and spe

66、ed of decision making to build its book of complex lending(for example,mortgages and SMB loans)realized a few years ago that these two edges were being competed away by the ubiquity of digital offers and the inevitable compression of decision-making time.Indeed,in its market today,the vast majority

67、of approvals are achieved in a matter of hours.The institution therefore invested heavily in data and analytics to build a truly microsegmented view of its customers.These clusters of customers,linked together by both need and behavioral characteristics,have helped the bank expand into new,previousl

68、y underserved segmentsand to better price existing segments to match its risks.It has also married its complex lending with a network of partners offering additional value-added services,further diversifying its sources of revenue.Building world-class lead generation in wealth management.A wealth ma

69、nager with a large team of financial advisers decided to fundamentally shift its approach to lead How to win(execution)18Global Banking Annual Review 2024:Attaining escape velocitygeneration and economics.The institution recognized that there were three outsize drivers of capturing“money in motion”:

70、the right offer,the right time,and delivery through the right channel.Getting these three things right rather than going about them randomly is delivering a propensity to convert thats almost 20 times higher than that of typical adviser outreach.By building an analytical model that combined client d

71、ata with these kinds of triggers,along with a rigorous A/B-testing program,the institution was able to provide materially better leads to its financial advisers,just in time.Not only did this result in a double-digit increase in customer and asset conversion,but the institution was able to fundament

72、ally change the economics on these clients,with a lower financial adviser fee share.Achieving retail or SMB customer primacy through mobile-orchestrated distribution.A winner that operates in a digitally forward nation has invested heavily in making the shift from thinking about an omnichannel distr

73、ibution strategy to using one thats truly mobile orchestrated.It has elevated mobile as the orchestrator of all customer journeys(which deepens relationships and routes customers to the right service point effectively);standardized all other channel operations,turning these channels into interfaces

74、of the same process(which reduces operation costs and complexity);moved many services that require specialized expertise into a remote advisory model(which enables efficient deployment;and moved the“system intelligence”into an“orchestration brain”across the customer relationship management,funnel ma

75、nagement,and customer value management systems(which makes it harder for competitors to copy the model).This has improved revenues by simplifying customer acquisition and deepening relationships;reduced costs by moving some staff out of the branch(and reducing branch footprint)and into contact cente

76、rs(with AI-supported self-service capabilities increasing as well);improved customer experience,as customers are delighted with the ease and simplicity of banking with the institution;and aligned what were previously diverse tech platforms into coordinated,cloud-based platforms with near-zero margin

77、al costs to serve.As a result,this institution now leads peers in four dimensions:growth,relationship depth,customer satisfaction,and operating leverage.Using strategic talent management to win with clients and unlock productivity.Some winners are focusing on their return from talent and using their

78、 people to differentiate their client No institution can excel at everything,but each winner does excel at something.19Global Banking Annual Review 2024:Attaining escape velocityvalue proposition.They have created a strategic HR capability to recruit candidates in days instead of months,compensate a

79、t the top quartile,maintain employee satisfaction scores(including by providing mission motivation,not just monetary incentives),and inspire their workforces to go above and beyond to serve their customers.Most effective leaders are leveraging workforce and talent optimization to drive change.They l

80、everage three set of changes:rapid interventions into location,pyramids,and other areas;moves to rewire the organization for future success,such as with centralization and reduction in shadow functions;and the capture of opportunities to fundamentally strengthen the talent backbone with better workf

81、orce planning.Picking the right spots in wholesale banking to win.A regional bank recognized that it would never reach the scale to win across wholesale banking holistically.Instead,it undertook building specialized sector offerings(vertically integrated across the entire sectors value chain)to beco

82、me the destination institution for clients in those spaces.It invested deliberately in talent,footprint,marketing and thought leadership to build its brand in these areas.In addition,it focused heavily on becoming the one-stop shop for clients in this space,making it easy for them to access treasury

83、 management services,payroll(through partners),and a host of other related activities.Rather than being threatened by private-credit players,the bank has embraced them,creating new unique opportunities for its clients to access additional financing through its private-credit partners and providing i

84、t with a new revenue source.Building an AI-enabled bank.While intelligence thats truly artificial is still emerging,there are a few leading institutions that have leaned very heavily into using advanced analytics,which include machine learning,deep learning,and more recently,gen AI and other approac

85、hes.They have built this into their cultural fabric(for example,theres no central analytics group,as analytics are embedded in every cell,and they have compliant model validation processes that are three times faster than the average)and operating models(for example,their data structures are best in

86、 class;they have made strategic investments in the ecosystem,including analytics start-ups;and their talent is best in class).Their focus is therefore tilted toward scalable businesses where they can leverage their analytical prowess to drive digital interactions supplemented with human interactions

87、 at critical points where needed.We think that this model(which were seeing different banks deploy on every continent)will become more common as digital interactions proliferate,AI becomes more democratized,and talent becomes more skilled.Using proven operating models to unleash speed at scale,safel

88、y.Several winners have built(and branded)their operating models.These are variations of“digital factories,”“product and platform,”or more aggressively,“independent mini-companies”that are able to operate under the same umbrella with more independence while automating a large portion of common servic

89、es.What we have observed is that infused into these operating models is a can-do culture.Theres aspiration and ambition,respect for expertise,and a dedication to the customer.Theres also generosity,collaboration,and a spirit of involving control functions early on and often to prevent surprises at t

90、he end.Theres an obsession with details and a top-down mandate to keep at the forefront while always being prudenta difficult balance to achieve culturally.These banks outperform because they just make things work more smoothly,and the decisions they take at the top translate into action at the fron

91、t line far faster than seen with others.Building these operating models and role modeling and nurturing the culture and behavior that optimizes the speed they work at has been the secret sauce for many of the winners that use this approach.20Global Banking Annual Review 2024:Attaining escape velocit

92、yAbout 10 percent of global banks have been successful at raising their performance by as much as five or more deciles of the industrys ROTE distribution,showing that breakout performance is indeed possible in this sector(Exhibit 16).But overall,our analysis shows that there doesnt seem to be a lot

93、of relative positional movement in the industry.Only 5 percent of banks dropped their performance by five or more deciles,about half the industry remained within one decile of its starting position,and roughly two-thirds of the industry remained within two deciles of its starting position.Change is

94、clearly not easy.But conversely,this isnt an industry where you can statistically wait for your competitors to score own goals and hope that improves your relative position.With the average bank historically eroding economic value and the industry globally trading at below-book value of Management q

95、uotient as a differentiator Exhibit 16Share of banks that changed deciles in return on tangible equity,201323,%Source:McKinsey Panorama;McKinsey Value IntelligenceAbout 10 percent of banks have moved up fve or more deciles in return on tangible equity over the past ten years.McKinsey&CompanyNo chang

96、e18.512.97.56.13.916.310.07.24.0 3.22.61.31.70.22.20.71.61Increased deciles byDecreased deciles by122334455667788.8821Global Banking Annual Review 2024:Attaining escape velocityequity,this puts the onus on management to actively move to“fight gravity”and achieve liftoff in the face of the coming hea

97、dwinds we described earlier.The economic returns4 from most industries in the world very roughly resemble a bell curve5(maybe this suggests some element of randomness in their results,a symptom of external and myriad forces at 4 Returns above cost of capital.5 The shape of the distribution of corpor

98、ate results somewhat resembles a normal distribution but with a lot more modality or skewness around the mean.For nonbanking companies,96 percent of their returns fall within half a standard deviation of the mean versus 38 percent for a Gaussian or normal distribution,and 98 percent fall within one

99、standard deviation versus 68 percent.But by the time one gets to the second standard deviation,99 percent fall within two standard deviations,consistent with the 99 percent of a Gaussian normal distribution.Banks are a little less skewed(or more normalized)than other industries are,with 86 percent o

100、f banks falling within half a standard deviation,95 percent within one standard deviation,and 99 percent within two standard deviations.work outside managements control)but with far more concentration around the average(Exhibit 17).Banking appears similarly hewn to the distribution shape of other in

101、dustries but with more dispersion around the average.Can this greater fragmentation of results be where more opportunity lieseither from structural consolidation of lower performers or from some of the outliers taking share?Naturally Exhibit 17Distribution of economic proft compared with normal dist

102、ribution,2023Economic proft is much more concentrated around the average compared with a normal distribution.McKinsey&CompanyConcentration,%Distribution around mean,standard deviations Source:McKinsey Panorama;McKinsey Value Intelligence;McKinsey analysis03210123102030405060708090Normal distribution

103、Share of valuewithin 1 standarddeviation,%Global bankingindustryAll other industries 68989122Global Banking Annual Review 2024:Attaining escape velocitythe regulatory oversight of banks differs greatly from what many other sectors experience,so there are some different forces at work.But would a str

104、onger“management quotient”change the skewness by creating more outliers as more companies outperform?The general tightness in distribution around the average and the previously quoted figures of the relatively small amounts of movement in performance speak to how hard improving performance is.The in

105、dustry is rife with examples of well-intentioned ideas and initiatives that didnt anticipate second-order effects that werent sustained over time(for example,cost-cutting programs that lasted two years only to see costs“walk back in the door”)or that ran at cross purposes(for example,poorly designed

106、 mobile apps that led to increases in call center volumes instead of the reductions planned in the business case).For example,our GCI Analytics subsidiary that tracks detailed metrics in commercial banking and cash management in the United States has tabulated several instances of increases in price

107、s that led to enough customer attrition that more than offset the additional revenue.Research has consistently found that only 30 percent of transformations fully succeed,while 70 percent either only partially succeed or entirely fail.But management can make a real difference to these outcomes.Given

108、 the markets current view of banking and the gravitational forces at work,management teams can seize the moment to separate from the pack.They can create real dynamism by answering five core questions:The hand you have been dealt.Given market structure matters(fragmented versus concentrated,public v

109、ersus private,and global 6 Improvise,adapt,and overcome.versus national versus regional versus community focused),whats your thesis about how the fundamental economics in your specific market will play out?What are the empirical drivers of your and your competitors market values that could realistic

110、ally be influenced to drive relative competitive advantage?The hand you play.Once you have isolated and accounted for market-structure-oriented drivers of enterprise value,how much of the residual value gap to your competitors can be closed by further harnessing endowments your bank enjoys(for examp

111、le,brand and community loyalty)?How much would need to rely on execution factors(for example,moves you make and businesses you grow into)?Tilting the scales.Where are the points of disproportionate structural leverage(for example,via scale,portfolio mix,and relationship depth)?Where are the points o

112、f disproportionate executional leverage(for example,from better risk selection,talent selection,pricing,and marketing)?How much of this leverage is organically capturable?Friction or frictionless.Is your operating model set up to translate ideas to actions fluidly,or does it sometimes feel like your

113、e wading in mud when trying to get things done internally?What exactly is getting in your way?What can be learned and adapted from more nimble executors?Improvidus,apto,quod victum.6 How fast do you tack to changing trends and competitors moves?Who are the“beacons”you have set yourself and your mana

114、gement team to emulate,so you can leap ahead?23Global Banking Annual Review 2024:Attaining escape velocityContactsAuthorsAsheet Mehta Senior partner,New York asheet_Karim Thomas Partner,Silicon Valley karim_ Klaus Dallerup Senior partner,Copenhagen klaus_ Luca Pancaldi Senior partner,Milan luca_ Mik

115、los Dietz Senior partner,Vancouver miklos_ Pradip Patiath Senior partner,Miami pradip_ Valeria Laszlo Panorama senior asset leader,Budapest valeria_ Vik Sohoni Senior partner,Chicago vik_ Regional leadership contactsAsiaRenny Thomas Senior partner,Mumbai renny_ EuropeStephanie Hauser Senior partner,

116、London stephanie_ Latin AmericaFelipe Villarreal Senior partner,Panama felipe_ Middle East&AfricaLuis Cunha Senior partner,Casablanca luis_ North AmericaIshaan Seth Senior partner,New York ishaan_24Global Banking Annual Review 2024:Attaining escape velocityAcknowledgmentsThe authors wish to thank th

117、e following colleagues for their contributions to this report:Amit Garg,Andres Vasconez,Anubhav Das,Anuj Gupta,Cage Brewer,Candelaria Casado,Cristina Catania,Debopriyo Bhattacharyya,Dmitry Devyaterikov,Eckart Windhagen,Eszter Teszarik,Fuad Faridi,Jay Datesh,Jeffrey Condon,John Spivey,Jonathan Godsal

118、l,Kate McCarthy,Lisa Gross,Luigi Crevoisier,Marie-Claude Nadeau,Marti Riba,Matthieu Lemerle,Max Fltotto,Megha Kansal,Milana Mukiyeva,Omar Quintero,Robert Byrne,Rushabh Kapashi,Sergey Khon,Tim Bacon,Vishnu Sharma,Xavier Lhuer,and Zane Williams.Developed and produced by the McKinsey Global Financial S

119、ervices Marketing and Communications team:Matt Cooke Director of communications and marketing matt_ Monica Runggatscher Public relations lead monica_Chris Depin Communications coordinator chris_ Kate McCarthy Head of operations and publishing kate_Astrid Regojo Head of events and partnerships Astrid

120、_R This annual review of the global banking industry is based on data and insights from McKinsey Panorama,McKinseys proprietary banking research arm,as well as the experience of clients and practitioners from all over the world.We welcome comments about this research at fs_external_.25Global Banking

121、 Annual Review 2024:Attaining escape velocityMcKinsey&Company October 2024 Copyright 2024 McKinsey&Company.All rights reserved.McK McKinsey McKinsey McKinseyThis publication is not intended to be used as the basis for trading in the shares of any company or for undertaking any other complex or significant financial transaction without consulting appropriate professional advisers.No part of this publication may be copied or redistributed in any form without the prior written consent of McKinsey&Company.