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1、Navigating the Future VIPlacing the Ocean withinthe wider Earth system2EMB NAVIGATING THE FUTURE VI2The European Marine Board provides a pan-European platform for its Member organisations to develop common priorities,advance marine research,and to bridge the gap between science and policy in order t

2、o meet future marine science challenges and opportunities.The European Marine Board(EMB)is an independent and self-sustaining science policy interface organisation that currently represents 38 Member organisations from 19 European countries.It was established in 1995 to facilitate enhanced cooperati

3、on between European marine science organisations towards the development of a common vision on the strategic research priorities for marine science in Europe.The EMB promotes and supports knowledge transfer for improved leadership in European marine research.Its membership includes major national ma

4、rine or oceanographic institutes,research funding agencies and national consortia of universities with a strong marine research focus.Adopting a strategic role,the European Marine Board serves its Member organisations by providing a forum within which marine research policy advice is developed and c

5、onveyed to national agencies and to the European Commission,with the objective of promoting the need for,and quality of,European marine research.www.marineboard.euEuropean Marine Board Member OrganisationsEuropean Marine Board IVZWNational Research Council of ItalyUNIVERSITS MARINESIrish Marine Univ

6、ersities Consortium 3POSITION PAPER 283This Position Paper is the result of the work of the European Marine Board Working Group on Navigating the Future VI.See Annex 1 for the list of Working Group Members and affiliations.Working Group ChairsGilles Lericolais,Sheila J.J.HeymansContributing Authors&

7、Working Group Members Nicola Beaumont,Juliette Aminian Biquet,Enrique Blanco Gonzalez,Julia Calderwood,Renske de Winter,Tain Fonseca,Joo Frias,Antonia Giannakourou,Fiona Grant,Kerstin Johannesson,Silja Klepp,Peter Kraal,Christophe Lejeusne,Luca Lpez-Lpez,David Lusseau,Joke Lbbecke,Francesco Marcello

8、 Falcieri,Slavica Matijevi,Loc Michel,Geir Ottersen,Carlos P.Dopazo,Ruth Plets,Ekaterina Popova,Baris Salihoglu,Jean-Baptiste Salle,Katrin Schroeder,Cosimo Solidoro,Beata Szymczycha,Nria Teixid,Olivier Thbaud,Ivica VilibiAdditional Working Group MembersChristine Edwards,Tarmo SoomereSeries EditorShe

9、ila J.J.HeymansPublication Editors Paula Kellett,Britt Alexander,ngel Muiz Piniella,Ana Rodriguez Perez,Jana Van Elslander,Fernanda Bayo-Ruiz,Maria TeodosioExternal Reviewers Peter Haugen,Guillermo Ortuo Crespo,Nadine Strydom,Ingrid van PuttenInternal review process The content of this document has

10、been subject to internal review,editorial support,and approval by the European Marine Board Member organisations.Suggested reference European Marine Board(2024)Navigating the Future VI:Placing the Ocean within the wider Earth system.Position Paper 28 of the European Marine Board,Ostend,Belgium.116pp

11、.ISSN:0167-9309 ISBN:9789464206265 DOI:10.5281/zenodo.13329469 www.marineboard.eu infomarineboard.euInfographics(pages 10-12)Martijn van Overbruggen,WIM OntwerpersDesign Zoeck nvCover image:Spilhaus projection.Image created by Britt Lonneville from Flanders Marine Institute(VLIZ)using data from Natu

12、ral Earth(free vector and raster map data from https:/).October 2024Navigating the Future VI:Placing the Ocean within the wider Earth system European Marine Board IVZW-Position Paper 28Navigating theFuture VIPosition Paper 284EMB NAVIGATING THE FUTURE VI4The first iteration of Navigating the Future,

13、published in 2001,called on the European community to work together to ensure that marine research is coordinated at a European level.However,the understanding of,and action on,the Ocean in the context of climate change was only proposed in 2015 during the 41st Session of the United Nations Framewor

14、k Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC).Subsequently,in September 2019,the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Changes(IPCC)Sixth Assessment Report(AR6),including a Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate(SROCC)was delivered.2019 was also the year that Navigating the Future V

15、was published,recommending that the marine research community should seek to break out of its traditional silos to work together across and beyond disciplines.We are now at the midpoints of the EU Framework Programme Horizon Europe,the EU Mission:Restore our Ocean and Waters,and the UN Decade of Oce

16、an Science for Sustainable Development.Today,most policymakers understand that the Ocean is a critical element in a healthy world conducive to life,and its challenging exploration shapes our imagination and provides a source of innovation,just as much as the conquest of space.Indeed,the Ocean forms

17、a single,enormous mass of water,a mechanical,thermal,chemical and biological machine:a formidable object of study for scientists of all disciplines.But today,the Ocean machine is seizing up.The pressures weighing on the health of the Ocean are multiple.For example,we see increasing temperatures and

18、acidification,which create a domino effect on marine life,and amplify floods and tropical cyclones.These problems are added to other perils such as pollution and the exponential growth of uses.Ocean-dependent communities,particularly vulnerable communities in developing countries,are under threat.Ye

19、t the Ocean stands as a powerful bulwark against climate change,thanks to its considerable capacity to store heat and carbon.Nevertheless,the vision of an infinite and indestructible Ocean is vastly outdated.Protecting the Ocean so that it continues to protect us,covering all its extent from the coa

20、st to the deep sea,requires a multidisciplinary approach and appropriate governance.Navigating the Future VI,with its four outward-facing chapters linking to topics that any audience can identify with(People,Climate,Fresh Water,and Biodiversity),takes the next step towards these challenges and consi

21、ders the role of the Ocean and marine science in the wider Earth system.Navigating the Future VI proposes what marine(natural and social)science research we need to help us address the challenges facing the planet,and with whom we need to collaborate to find solutions.Its chapters highlight how impo

22、rtant the Ocean is in solving the climate change,biodiversity,and human crises we have created.For this,I would particularly like to thank the chapter(co)leads for taking on those roles:Francesco Marcello Falcieri,Juliette Aminian Biquet,Katrin Schroeder,Peter Kraal,Tain Fonseca,and Carlos Pereira D

23、opazo.I would also like to thank the members of the European Marine Board Secretariat for their work in preparing this report.Gilles Lericolais Chair of Navigating the Future VI Working Group and Former Chair of EMB(Spring 2019-Spring 2024)October 2024Foreword5POSITION PAPER 285Table of Contents For

24、eword 4Executive Summary 81.Introduction 14 1.1 The Navigating the Future series 15 1.2 Planetary boundaries 16 1.3 Moving towards a sustainable Ocean future 17 1.4 Eyes on the water 18 1.5 Where next?202.Ocean and People 22 2.1 Exploring the dynamic relationship between humans and the Ocean 23 2.1.

25、1 The many values of nature 24 2.1.2 Emergence and growing understanding of feedback between the Ocean and society 24 2.1.3 The role of science in marine conflicts 24 2.2 Collaboration 25 2.3 Blue Economy and the Oceans contribution to people 27 2.3.1 Oceans contribution to people 28 2.4 Understandi

26、ng the governance of maritime activities 29 2.4.1 Governance of common-pool resources 29 2.4.2 Equity,justice,and power 29 2.4.3 Alternative governance and decision-making processes 30 2.5 Socio-ecological transformation and transformative adaptation 31 2.6 Tools and enablers 32 2.7 Recommendations

27、34 2.7.1 Recommendations for policy and management 34 2.7.2 Recommendations for research and monitoring 343.Ocean and Climate 36 3.1 Introduction 37 3.2 The Ocean as part of the climate system:a climate mitigator and its major driver 37 3.2.1 The 4D Ocean 37 3.2.2 Heat and freshwater content 38 3.2.

28、3 Biogeochemical cycles and the carbon cycle 39 3.2.4 The oceanic archive of past climate change 39 3.3 The Ocean impacted by climate change 40 3.3.1 Ocean warming,marine heatwaves,and their implications 40 3.3.2 Sea-level rise 40 3.3.3 Impacts on Ocean circulation 42 3.3.4 Ocean deoxygenation and i

29、ts implications 436EMB NAVIGATING THE FUTURE VI6 3.3.5 Ocean acidification and its implications 44 3.3.6 Ocean outgassing and sediment contribution 44 3.3.7 Impacted coastal areas 45 3.3.8 Tipping points and irreversibility 46 3.4 The Ocean as a tool for climate action 46 3.4.1 Sharing Ocean data an

30、d models 46 3.4.2 Mitigating climate change:the Ocean perspective 46 3.4.3 Adapting to climate change:the Ocean perspective 49 3.5 Recommendations 50 3.5.1 Recommendations for policy and management 50 3.5.2 Recommendations for research and monitoring 504.Ocean and Fresh Water 52 4.1 Introduction 53

31、4.2 Ocean and groundwater interactions 54 4.2.1 Freshwater salinisation from seawater intrusion 54 4.2.2 Submarine groundwater discharge:A hidden source of nutrients and pollutants 54 4.3 Human impacts on freshwater fluxes into the Ocean 56 4.3.1 Global warming and altered freshwater fluxes in polar

32、 regions 56 4.3.2 Pathways and impact of pollutants 57 4.3.3 Innovation from waste to resource:pollutant removal and recovery 59 4.4 Cumulative impacts of multiple stressors on aquatic systems 61 4.4.1 Contaminant release as a consequence of increasing rainfall 61 4.4.2 Multiple impacts of plastic p

33、ollution in the Ocean 62 4.4.3 Frozen pandemics and warm epidemics 64 4.5 Recommendations 65 4.5.1 Recommendations for policy and management 65 4.5.2 Recommendations for research and monitoring 655.Ocean and Biodiversity 66 5.1 What is biodiversity?67 5.2 Biodiversity,ecosystem functioning and ecosy

34、stem services 68 5.2.1 Importance of biodiversity for the functioning of the Ocean 68 5.2.2 Biodiversity and ecosystem services 70 5.3 Activities and stressors affecting Ocean biodiversity 70 5.4 Biological invasions as an increasing concern 71 5.5 Changes in species distributions 73 5.6 Biodiversit

35、y conservation and restoration 75 5.6.1 A baseline for marine biodiversity 75 5.6.2 Conservation and management 75 5.6.3 Restoration 767POSITION PAPER 287 5.7 Tools to fill knowledge gaps 78 5.7.1 Traditional and new tools for biodiversity monitoring 78 5.7.2 Towards integrative taxonomy 78 5.7.3 Da

36、tabases and artificial intelligence 79 5.7.4 Ecosystem modelling 79 5.8 Recommendations 80 5.8.1 Recommendations for policy and management 80 5.8.2 Recommendations for research and monitoring 806.Directing our next steps 82References 88List of abbreviations and acronyms 108Glossary 111Annex 1:Member

37、s of the European Marine Board Working Group on Navigating the Future VI 1138EMB NAVIGATING THE FUTURE VI8EMB acknowledges that while the Working Group members who contributed to the document and its recommendations represent different European geographical location(see Annex 1),professional backgro

38、unds,and career levels,their views do not represent all forms of diversity.This document has a European focus,but its messages and recommendations are relevant to stakeholders globally.Contribution to the EU Mission:Restore our Ocean and WatersThis Position Paper and its recommendations support the

39、direct objectives of the EU Mission:Restore our Ocean and Waters(Mission Ocean)in the following ways:Protect and restore marine and freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity by presenting the challenges facing marine ecosystems and recommending marine science research and policies to address these in t

40、he Ocean and Biodiversity Chapter.Prevent and eliminate pollution of our Ocean,seas and waters by discussing the different sources and pathways of known and emerging marine pollutants and proposing marine science research and policy recommendations to address these in the Ocean and Fresh Water Chapt

41、er.In addition,the chapters on Ocean and People and Ocean and Climate include information and recommendations which will be critical to making the Mission Ocean a success.Without the contribution of people and their understanding of the importance of the Ocean for their health and to mitigate climat

42、e change,the Mission will not succeed.Executive summaryThe Navigating the Future publication series produced by the European Marine Board provides foresight on priorities for marine science and policy.Each edition builds on the messages of previous publications,taking the next steps in helping us to

43、 understand and manage the Ocean,learn how to use its resources sustainably,and keep benefiting from the services it provides.Navigating the Future VI complements previous editions of Navigating the Future by considering the role of the Ocean in the wider Earth system,in relation to people(Chapter 2

44、),climate(Chapter 3),fresh water(Chapter 4)and biodiversity(Chapter 5).Chapter 2 on the Ocean and People explores the different types of connections that exist between people and the Ocean,and how we need to reconsider these interactions to move towards sustainability and equity.Chapter 3 on the Oce

45、an and Climate discusses both how the Ocean is being affected by climate change and its role in helping to address it.Chapter 4 on the Ocean and Fresh Water presents the complex interfaces between salt water,fresh water,and ice,as well as the Ocean and land,to demonstrate how challenges in one area

46、also affect others,meaning they must be addressed together.Chapter 5 on the Ocean and Biodiversity highlights the critical role of biodiversity in the provision of ecosystem services to humans,and hence the need to take steps to further protect it.The document closes by considering how marine scienc

47、e itself should evolve and highlights how overarching aspects such as understanding and managing Ocean stressors,considering our Ocean governance structures,and exploring Ocean finance are vital to help us protect our Ocean(Chapter 6).9POSITION PAPER 289Contribution to the UN Ocean Decade Challenges

48、 and OutcomesThis Position Paper and its recommendations support the UN Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Developments(Ocean Decade)societal outcomes(O1 O7)and challenges (C1 C10)in the following ways:A clean Ocean(O1)where sources of pollution are identified,reduced and removed as well as Und

49、erstand and beat marine pollution(C1)by discussing the different sources and pathways of known and emerging marine pollutants and proposing marine science research and policy recommendations to address these in the Ocean and Fresh Water Chapter.A healthy and resilient Ocean(O2)where marine ecosystem

50、s are understood,protected,restored and managed,and Protect and restore ecosystems and biodiversity(C2)by presenting the challenges facing marine ecosystems and proposing marine science research and policy recommendations to address these in the Ocean and Biodiversity Chapter.A productive Ocean supp

51、orting sustainable food and a sustainable Ocean economy(O3),Sustainably feed the global population(C3)by discussing factors that can influence the supply,location and quality of marine species used for food products in the Ocean and Biodiversity and Ocean and Fresh Water Chapters,and proposing recom

52、mendations that will improve the management of food provision in response to these factors in the future.An equitable Ocean(C4)for developing a sustainable and equitable Ocean economy by stressing the importance of recognising the many values of the Ocean and highlighting management,decision and gov

53、ernance approaches which are more likely to yield sustainable,and particularly equitable,outcomes in the Ocean and People and closing Chapters.A predicted Ocean where society understands and can respond to changing Ocean conditions(O4)and Unlock Ocean-based solutions to climate change(C5)by outlinin

54、g the likely impacts of climate change on the Ocean,and hence society,under different scenarios and highlighting how the Ocean could help mitigate these if properly managed in the Ocean and Climate Chapter.A safe Ocean where life and livelihoods are protected from Ocean-related hazards(O5)and Increa

55、se community resilience to Ocean hazards(C6)by highlighting the potential human health and societal impacts from hazards related to climate change in the Ocean and Climate Chapter,and polluted waters in the Ocean and Fresh Water Chapter,and how those could be better understood,and eventually mitigat

56、ed.An accessible Ocean with open and equitable access to data,information and technology and innovation(O6)and Expand the Global Ocean Observing System(C7)by making recommendations for the improvement of Ocean observing in the Introduction and highlighting additional observing needs to better unders

57、tand the links between the Ocean and People,Climate,Fresh Water and Biodiversity in the respective Chapters.An inspiring and engaging Ocean where society understands and values the Ocean in relation to human wellbeing and sustainable development(O7)and Change humanitys relationship with the Ocean(C1

58、0)by challenging the accepted ways in which people engage with and manage Ocean resources and proposing alternative approaches in the Ocean and People Chapter.10EMB NAVIGATING THE FUTURE VI10CO2Strengthen future trajectory prediction capacity of the Blue Economy to inform policyEstimate how,where,wh

59、en,and by whom Ocean values are used to build a model of human-Ocean interactionsReform Ocean governance to ensure equitable community participation and consideration of values and knowledge Recognise the need for structural change in Ocean policy and managementUse appropriate criteria to monitor en

60、gagement in citizen science projectsIncrease capacity in and appreciation of all forms of collaborationWorking together to manage our Ocean interactionsOcean&PeopleGain full understanding of marine ice sheet instability and impacts of meltingBuild holistic coastal management plans to ensure adaptati

61、on and liveabilityAddress knowledge gaps highlighted by IPCC as low or very low confdenceConduct research to identify Ocean signals for coastal adaptation tipping pointsMeasure and map naturally occurring CO2 and methane to address uncertainties related to potential releaseResearch the triple threat

62、 synergistic effects of warming,deoxygenation and acidifcationAn Ocean that is no longer impacted by climate changeOcean&ClimateCO2Strengthen future trajectory prediction capacity of the Blue Economy to inform policyEstimate how,where,when,and by whom Ocean values are used to build a model of human-

63、Ocean interactionsReform Ocean governance to ensure equitable community participation and consideration of values and knowledge Recognise the need for structural change in Ocean policy and managementUse appropriate criteria to monitor engagement in citizen science projectsIncrease capacity in and ap

64、preciation of all forms of collaborationWorking together to manage our Ocean interactionsOcean&PeopleGain full understanding of marine ice sheet instability and impacts of meltingBuild holistic coastal management plans to ensure adaptation and liveabilityAddress knowledge gaps highlighted by IPCC as

65、 low or very low confdenceConduct research to identify Ocean signals for coastal adaptation tipping pointsMeasure and map naturally occurring CO2 and methane to address uncertainties related to potential releaseResearch the triple threat synergistic effects of warming,deoxygenation and acidifcationA

66、n Ocean that is no longer impacted by climate changeOcean&ClimateMain recommendations by chapter11POSITION PAPER 2811Include all contaminants and discharge pathways in risk assessments and EU DirectivesMonitor deteriorating coastal freshwater reserves and submarine dischargesBroaden monitored parame

67、ters to understand salination impactsCreate nature-based cost-effective technologies for emerging and legacy pollutantsMonitor biochemical and genetic markers to prevent the spread of diseasesHarmonise monitoring and reporting methods between freshwater and marine systemsClean and safe waters availa

68、ble to all communitiesOcean&Fresh WaterStudy and effectively manage the impacts of emerging and expanding human activities on marine biodiversity Assess the impact of human activities on ecosystems using cost-beneft analysis of their conservation or restorationStudy and monitor the spatial-temporal

69、distribution and adaptive potential of marine organisms Evaluate the epidemiological,genetic,and ecological consequences of invasive species Study the distribution of marine microorganisms to predict future epidemic risks from invasive microbes or resistance to antibiotics Promote all initiatives to

70、 increase biodiversity knowledge and capacity building,including the European Digital Twin,citizen science,recovering lost knowledge,and using traditional and new toolsA biodiverse Ocean that continues to provide ecosystem servicesOcean&BiodiversityInclude all contaminants and discharge pathways in

71、risk assessments and EU DirectivesMonitor deteriorating coastal freshwater reserves and submarine dischargesBroaden monitored parameters to understand salination impactsCreate nature-based cost-effective technologies for emerging and legacy pollutantsMonitor biochemical and genetic markers to preven

72、t the spread of diseasesHarmonise monitoring and reporting methods between freshwater and marine systemsClean and safe waters available to all communitiesOcean&Fresh WaterStudy and effectively manage the impacts of emerging and expanding human activities on marine biodiversity Assess the impact of h

73、uman activities on ecosystems using cost-beneft analysis of their conservation or restorationStudy and monitor the spatial-temporal distribution and adaptive potential of marine organisms Evaluate the epidemiological,genetic,and ecological consequences of invasive species Study the distribution of m

74、arine microorganisms to predict future epidemic risks from invasive microbes or resistance to antibiotics Promote all initiatives to increase biodiversity knowledge and capacity building,including the European Digital Twin,citizen science,recovering lost knowledge,and using traditional and new tools

75、A biodiverse Ocean that continues to provide ecosystem servicesOcean&Biodiversity12EMB NAVIGATING THE FUTURE VI12CO2 RequirementsWorking together to manage our Ocean interactionsClean and safe waters available to all communitiesAn Ocean that is no longer impacted by climate changeA biodiverse Ocean

76、that continues to provide ecosystem services Accessible data Input for the Digital Twin of the Ocean People trained to collaborate Research on impact of multiple stressors Harmonised Ocean-coastal-land management approaches Sustainable and equitable marine science Sustained Ocean observations Balanc

77、e between needs and resources Sustained,long-term research funding Substantial,sustainable Ocean fnanceMain cross-cutting requirements13POSITION PAPER 2813141IntroductionCredit:Clment Proust,PexelsPOSITION PAPER 281515To understand the vision of the main chapters of this document,we present the cont

78、ext within which they should be understood.We outline where Navigating the Future VI comes from,and what the publication and the broader Navigating the Future series aim to achieve.We continue by discussing the complex and evolving Ocean landscape which it aims to influence,and present overarching e

79、nablers which relate to all four chapters,before addressing the proposed next steps.1.1 The Navigating the Future series The Navigating the Future foresight series1 provides the marine research community with periodic opportunities to step back from their core research and consider the overarching d

80、irection of marine science.Where is marine science heading and what are the key emerging topics,approaches and challenges?Where should upcoming research funding programmes and policies focus?It is therefore useful to look back at previous editions and see if the recommendations have been achieved,or

81、 if there have been any changes in policy direction since their publication.Navigating the Future I,published in 2001(ESF Marine Board,2001)focused on the importance of a marine European Research Area(ERA)at a time where the European Commissions 6th Framework Programme(FP6)2 was being developed and

82、where no marine ERA yet existed.Published in 2003,Navigating the Future II(ESF Marine Board,2003)further developed these ideas,discussing how marine science could be better integrated in Europe.Twenty years later,sea basin-,European-and even international-level collaborations lie at the heart of bot

83、h marine science research and marine policy.Navigating the Future II called on Europe to move towards sound and true governance of its oceans and seas,integrating all components for a comprehensive and responsible management of its marine assets.After the publication of these documents,the Integrate

84、d Maritime Policy was released in 20073,with the specific inclusion of sea basin strategies.The European Commission also funded MarinERA4(2004-2009),a FP6 project that facilitated cooperation between National Marine Research Programmes in Europe,and in the European Commissions 7th Framework Programm

85、e(FP75),the follow-up project SEAS-ERA6(2010-2014)was funded.These research area programmes evolved into the Atlantic programme AORA7 followed by the All-Atlantic AAORIA8,Blue-Med9 in the Mediterranean Sea,BANOS10 in the Baltic and North Seas,and Black Sea Connect11 as instruments to increase marine

86、 research cooperation within the European sea basins.In the build-up to FP7,Navigating the Future III(Marine Board-ESF,2006)described marine science research in more detail,identifying major trends,opportunities,and future challenges,including climate change and the Ocean,marine biodiversity,coastal

87、 ecosystems,and the ecosystem approach to resource management.These topics were rooted firmly in natural sciences and did not include social science.We can see the parallels with key research trends that remain important today,including in the chapters of this present version of Navigating the Futur

88、e.Navigating the Future IV(European Marine Board,2013)reflected the increased focus on grand challenges in scientific research in the run-up to the Horizon 2020 Framework Programme12.It focused on how to address societal challenges(e.g.harvesting food and raw materials sustainably from the Ocean or

89、producing energy)and research enablers(e.g.Ocean observing,marine training)linked to the Ocean.All the challenges and enablers identified then still stand today and have become even more relevant.Navigating the Future IV highlighted the continued need for a better understanding of the regional conte

90、xt of marine research.It also called for a forum of marine scientists,policymakers,representatives from industry,and coastal stakeholders that could convene regularly to ensure effective communication and synergies between sectors;this is now becoming a reality with the European Blue Forum13,which w

91、as initiated by the European Commission in 2023,and the Sustainable Blue Economy Partnership14 which also started in 2023.Navigating the Future V(European Marine Board,2019)built on these ideas and considered a longer timeframe,identifying the topics that would significantly advance our understandin

92、g of the Ocean to 2030 and beyond.It was released as discussions for the EU Framework Programme Horizon Europe15 were underway,and for the first time highlighted the concept of sustainability science,bringing in the marine social science perspectives that had thus far 1 https:/www.marineboard.eu/nav

93、igating-future 2 https:/eur-lex.europa.eu/EN/legal-content/summary/6th-framework-programme-2002-2006.html 3 https:/research-and-innovation.ec.europa.eu/research-area/environment/oceans-and-seas/integrated-maritime-policy_en 4 https:/cordis.europa.eu/project/id/515871 5 https:/eur-lex.europa.eu/EN/le

94、gal-content/summary/seventh-framework-programme-2007-to-2013.html 6 https:/seas-era.eu/7 http:/www.atlanticresource.org/8 https:/allatlanticocean.org/9 https:/www.bluemed-initiative.eu/10 https:/www.banoscsa.org/11 http:/connect2blacksea.org/12 https:/eur-lex.europa.eu/EN/legal-content/glossary/hori

95、zon-2020.html 13 https:/maritime-spatial-planning.ec.europa.eu/european-blue-forum 14 https:/bluepartnership.eu/15 https:/eur-lex.europa.eu/EN/legal-content/glossary/horizon-europe.html 16EMB NAVIGATING THE FUTURE VI16been missing from the series.Navigating the Future V highlighted the importance of

96、 the four-dimensional Ocean considered over volume and time,the impact of pollution and multiple stressors,and the need for a virtual platform of the Ocean supported by observations and models.This platform concept is being reflected in the Digital Twin of the Ocean that is a key target of the EU Mi

97、ssion:Restore out Ocean and Waters16(Mission Ocean),and of the UN Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development17(Ocean Decade).The social science dimensions are also reflected in the newest funded Horizon Europe Mission projects to include socio-economic modelling into the Digital Twin of the

98、 Ocean.Released at the midpoints of Horizon Europe,the Mission Ocean and the Ocean Decade,Navigating the Future VI takes the next step and considers the role of the Ocean and marine science in the wider Earth system:i.e.the interaction between the physical,chemical,and biological processes on Earth.

99、What natural and social marine science do we need to help us address the challenges facing the planet,and with whom do we need to collaborate to co-construct solutions?While the early editions of the Navigating the Future series were pioneering publications that provided overarching European-level d

100、irection for marine science at a time when research priority setting was still focused at national or institute level,the current landscape is very different.Large-scale and ambitious initiatives such as the Ocean Decade,Horizon Europe and the Mission Ocean are providing clear visions for the future

101、 of marine science.Navigating the Future VI strongly supports and aligns with these visions,but also seeks to reach beyond the Ocean sphere to ensure that policymakers and the wider public understand the importance of the Ocean in helping to address the climate and biodiversity crises,for the provis

102、ion of fresh water,and for the health and wellbeing of humanity.1.2 Planetary boundaries In the last century,technological advancements have gradually shaped the way humans interact with nature.Global quality of life has largely improved,with notable exceptions(e.g.current war zones),and with it,con

103、sumption patterns.Increasing human populations and activities require large amounts of natural and synthetic resources,whose extraction and processing interfere with the balance of nature.Discussions about concepts such as planetary boundaries and ensuring an ongoing and safe operating space for hum

104、ans (Rockstrm et al.,2009)have left the confines of academia and are now firmly embedded in political and societal discourse,although the political situation in Europe makes this enlightenment a fragile reality.This is particularly relevant since we have already crossed six out of nine planetary bou

105、ndaries(Figure 1.1),and we urgently need to understand the consequences of humanity living outside its safe operating space(Richardson et al.,2023).Of particular relevance to the Ocean are the boundaries of climate change and biosphere integrity,which were already crossed in 2009,and Ocean acidifica

106、tion,which although not yet crossed,is of significant concern,as discussed in Chapter 3.Figure 1.1 The evolution of the planetary boundaries framework.By 2009 humanity had crossed three of these boundaries(biosphere integrity,climate change and biogeochemical flows);by 2015 we had also crossed land-

107、system change;and by 2023 the boundaries of novel entities introduced by humans(e.g.chemical compounds)and freshwater change were also crossed.Credit:Azore for Stockholm Resilience Centre,Stockholm University.Based on(Rockstrm et al.,2009;Steffen et al.,2015;Richardson et al.,2023),CC-BY-NC-ND 3.016

108、 https:/research-and-innovation.ec.europa.eu/funding/funding-opportunities/funding-programmes-and-open-calls/horizon-europe/eu-missions-horizon-europe/restore-our-ocean-and-waters_en 17 https:/oceandecade.org17POSITION PAPER 28171.3 Moving towards a sustainable Ocean future Questions about the capac

109、ity of our planet to sustain our current way of life have shaped the governance landscape over the past 20 years.Similarly,questions about the ability of our Ocean to support life on Earth have also been growing within these discussions.Internationally,the Sustainable Development Goals18(SDGs)outlin

110、ed in the UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development19 published in 2015 provide an interconnected framework for working towards a sustainable future,balancing economic,societal,and environmental factors(see Figure 1.2),with SDG 14 and its targets dedicated to the Ocean,or protecting Life Below Wate

111、r.SDG 14 has only positive synergies with other SDGs and raises no trade-off,indicating that protecting the Ocean and its inhabitants also has positive outcomes for society and the economy.As presented in Chapter 2,it is important that we consider these aspects together.The UN 2030 Agenda sits along

112、side a myriad of other international-level governance initiatives on different topics(e.g.biodiversity,climate change)and sectors(e.g.shipping,fisheries)but for the Ocean,the broad aim of moving towards a more sustainable and healthy future remains the same.In Europe,EU Member States must fulfil obl

113、igations associated with a series of Directives which aim to ensure that the Ocean and aquatic environments are managed sustainably,pollution is reduced,and ecosystems are protected and restored.For example,the Marine Strategy Framework Directive(MSFD,Directive 2008/56/EC,2008)came into being as pol

114、itical awareness of the importance of protecting the Ocean was growing.The MSFD dovetails with the Water Framework Directive(WFD,Directive 2000/60/EC,2000),which highlights the importance of freshwater status,and the Urban Waste Water Treatment Directive(UWWTD,Directive 91/271/EEC,1991),which aims t

115、o ensure that pollution is kept out of our freshwater systems.In addition,the success of the WFD and MSFD is depended on the Common Agricultural Policy(Regulation 2021/2115,2021),and the Nitrates Directives(Directive 91/676/EEC,1991)as these instruments will enable a reduction of nutrients entering

116、rivers and ultimately the Ocean.As discussed in Chapter 4,these obligations are critical for protecting the health of the Ocean and of people.The recent drive to build back better following the COVID-19 pandemic,coupled with the decarbonisation ambitions of the EU Green Deal20 and its related initia

117、tives,are encouraging and stimulate sustainability,equality and environmentally aware development,and if properly implemented should support a more sustainable Ocean future.As discussed in Chapter 3,decarbonisation lies at the heart of our fight against climate change and ensuring that the Ocean can

118、 continue to play its role in this fight.The EU is also taking significant steps to address the biodiversity crisis through the Nature Restoration Law(Regulation 2024/1991,2024),adopted on 17 June 2024.If properly implemented,the Law would help to protect and restore Ocean biodiversity and address s

119、ome of the challenges outlined in Chapter 5.However,political compromises and decision-making,e.g.with geopolitical concerns,and the rise of nationalism in Europe,sometimes detract attention and funding from nature and Ocean protection initiatives such as those presented above,at least in Figure 1.2

120、 Network images showing on the left,positive synergies between the SDGs,and on the right,trade-offs between them.Source:Eurostat18 https:/sdgs.un.org/goals 19 https:/sdgs.un.org/2030agenda20 https:/commission.europa.eu/strategy-and-policy/priorities-2019-2024/european-green-deal_en 18EMB NAVIGATING

121、THE FUTURE VI1821 https:/argo.ucsd.edu/22 https:/seabed2030.org/the long-term.Questions of fair implementation(e.g.the farmer protests of 2024)can also lead to the retraction of previous commitments and dilute ambitions.Thus,to ensure a sustainable,well managed Ocean,we also need to ensure that citi

122、zens understand the wider role that nature and the Ocean play in their lives,and the implications of ignoring the planetary boundaries.1.4 Eyes on the water Understanding the Ocean is fundamental.If we do not observe it at multiple spatial and temporal scales,we cannot comprehend how it functions.If

123、 we cannot comprehend it,we will be unable to predict future scenarios,and adapt to or mitigate the impacts of Ocean health and stability degradation on society.While the overarching aims of the various initiatives discussed above all agree on the need to protect Ocean ecosystems and processes,imple

124、mentation varies e.g.between countries,agencies etc.There is a lack of harmonisation in the methods used for data collection,monitoring and reporting,indicators,scales of assessment,quality assurance and control,and interpretation of results,leading to inefficiencies in data(re)use for reporting by

125、Member States.Furthermore,the Ocean does not operate in isolation,but instead is fully integrated into other Earth systems.Thus,methods for regulation and management of the Ocean should align with freshwater,terrestrial,atmospheric and sectoral regulatory systems.At present,this is rarely the case a

126、nd should be urgently addressed.Nevertheless,the increasing availability of environmental and marine ecosystem data,new probes and sensors,computational power,and information and communication technologies are paving the way for unprecedented collection and integration of data and information.Advanc

127、es include:An increase in the number and variety of Ocean observing systems,including profiling floats,autonomous and remotely operated underwater vehicles(AUVs and ROVs),and other Ocean observing systems(e.g.ARGO floats21),which continuously monitor Ocean parameters;New communication technologies t

128、hat enable the retrieval of data from underwater sensors(e.g.acoustic modems,high-bandwidth communications);The development of microelectronics and mechanical designs that allow for example the measurement of physical and chemical properties using in situ optical sensors,and water sample analysis of

129、 environmental DNA(eDNA,see Chapter 5);The use of satellite remote sensing,unmanned aerial vehicle(drone)imagery,and underwater imagery,including high resolution photogrammetry for benthic habitats(Fraschetti et al.,2024);The development and application of marine ecosystem models that enhance our un

130、derstanding of ecosystem functioning,and improve our predictive capabilities for short-term forecasts,long-term climate projections,and assessment of the most likely consequences of management scenarios(Heymans et al.,2018),as well as the additional links to socio-economic models to address human dr

131、ivers of Ocean change;Advanced data processing and visualisation capabilities using artificial intelligence,which is rapidly revolutionising our ability to extract information and derive knowledge from Ocean data,allowing patterns and trends to be identified more efficiently(Guidi et al.,2020);and N

132、ew levels of global cross-sectoral cooperation such as in high-resolution Ocean floor mapping under the Seabed 2030 initiative22.However,these advancements also pose technical and non-technical challenges.Sensor power availability,navigation,and communication are all persistent technical issues.Main

133、taining crucial long-term observation systems,instruments,and remote Ocean infrastructure continues to be expensive,making their application and the long-term funding for these systems challenging(European Marine Board,2021).However,it is notable that the few studies analysing the cost-benefit of Oc

134、ean observing indicate that investing in Ocean observing(e.g.Jolly et al.,2021)and open marine data more generally(Jolliffe&Aben Athar,2024)have a societal benefit.Non-technical challenges include lack of human capacity to deploy these new techniques and technologies,both in Europe and globally,whic

135、h will become a bottleneck and a source of research output disparity if not addressed soon.19POSITION PAPER 281923 https:/www.go-fair.org/fair-principles/24 https:/emodnet.ec.europa.eu/en25 https:/marine.copernicus.eu/26 https:/research-and-innovation.ec.europa.eu/funding/funding-opportunities/fundi

136、ng-programmes-and-open-calls/horizon-europe/eu-missions-horizon-europe/restore-our-ocean-and-waters/european-digital-twin-ocean-european-dto_enThis vast array of Ocean data needs to be transformed into clear and organised information.At present,different sectors collect data for different purposes,w

137、ith limited overarching strategy or overview.It is therefore critical that FAIR(Findability,Accessibility,Interoperability,Reusability)principles23 for Ocean data are followed and data are digitised and made publicly available,so that they can be measured once and used many times.Numerous examples o

138、f open data resources already exist in the marine sphere(e.g.EMODnet24,Copernicus Marine Service25),with the newest addition of the European Digital Twin of the Ocean26(DTO)enabling the integration of these data services with an easy to integrate infrastructure and the ability to bolt on bespoke mod

139、els.However,given the need for information exchange across disciplines to address the cross-cutting challenges humanity faces,it is vital that all scientists seeking information are aware of these Ocean data resources and harmonisation principles.Public awareness of the available information is impo

140、rtant,but the public may not be interested in the raw data,so data analysis and appropriate presentation are also important steps.Thus,the European DTO should be harnessed to create a citizen portal where the data available in a specific area can be used to describe the reality in the water beyond t

141、he waves-as we had already highlighted in the Epilogue of Navigating the Future V.The Ocean remains under-sampled,and most data are inevitably biased in spatial coverage(e.g.more data from coastal waters versus deep sea,and from the Ocean surface versus seabed),seasonal coverage(e.g.more data from w

142、arm versus cold seasons),geographical locations(e.g.more data from regions with the capability to do more measurements)and data type(e.g.more physical versus biological data).Artificial intelligence,data-driven and process-based models need to be extended,refined,and integrated to provide increased

143、reliability in:Interpolation(i.e.the estimation of unknown values within a range of known data)of experimental observations in space and time;Extrapolation(i.e.the estimation of unknown values beyond the range of known data points)of missing observations;Detection and early-warning of anomalies;Shor

144、t-and long-term prediction of expected system behaviour;and Scenario analysis of the expected response of an ecosystem to the implementation of management policies(management strategy evaluation).Figure 1.3 In situ Ocean Observation-Ocean Observing Systems and Sensors.This image was produced by and

145、for the NeXOS project,funded under FP7.Credit:Glynn Gorick,Eric Delory,Jay Pearlman,NeXOS project.CC-BY-SA 4.020EMB NAVIGATING THE FUTURE VI20The development of systems to understand the Ocean,including Digital Twins of the Ocean,is a challenge that requires the integration of knowledge from differe

146、nt scientific disciplines and key enabling technologies.These systems need to integrate:i)quality certified and harmonised FAIR data,ii)models,data analysis,and visualisation tools,including for virtual augmented reality,and iii)user-friendly graphical interfaces for information access and decision

147、support.The DTO platform is a good start to this requirement that needs to be followed up with good graphic interfaces and decision support tools.To fully develop the information systems such as DTO we require:The identification of monitoring priorities,harmonisation,intercalibration and integration

148、 of real-time and near real-time observing capabilities and data streams;Strengthening and expansion of existing observing capabilities to meet all the priorities;Development,deployment and testing of novel technologies(e.g.new sensors,drones and other autonomous vehicles,genomic observations,Intern

149、et of Things(IoT)and Internet of Underwater Things(IUT);Artificial intelligence and interpolation techniques to reduce uncertainty and support efficient numerical simulation;and Outreach and dissemination of observations and model-based assessments.These needs are particularly pertinent given that p

150、eople from many different backgrounds will need to access,use,and understand Ocean data,and use it to make informed decisions.Artificial intelligence systems may also help to reduce human biases and inconsistencies in data analysis,but only if properly developed,as inappropriate development can perp

151、etuate those biases.1.5 Where next?The Ocean as both a solution to and a casualty of the impacts of anthropogenic stressors has never been so apparent.The need to strengthen the understanding of the Ocean,and action towards its improved health,was first officially recognised at global level within t

152、he context of climate change under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC)by governments at the 25th Conference of the Parties(COP)in 201927.In addition,several high-level conferences,such as the Our Ocean and UN Ocean Conference series,and the 2022 One Ocean Summit,have helped to brin

153、g the Ocean firmly into mainstream political discussions.Topics such as plastic pollution,biodiversity loss,overfishing,deep-sea mining,marine heatwaves and the UN Biodiversity Beyond National Jurisdiction Treaty28 have also helped to bring the Ocean to the attention of the public and policymakers.I

154、t is therefore timely to capitalise on the interest and concern already generated.The global marine research community can take a visible and active role in furthering these discussions,highlighting Ocean challenges,and proposing Ocean solutions,including ideas for implementing existing agreements a

155、nd treaties.Navigating the Future VI,with its four outward-facing chapters linking to topics that a wide audience can identify with(people,fresh water,climate,and biodiversity),provides a means to do so.As highlighted in the 2023 Vigo Declaration29,the European marine science community is working to

156、gether towards solutions and the provision of transdisciplinary,science-based policy advice to all levels of governance.Navigating the Future V recommended that the marine research community should seek to break out of its traditional silos to work together in a transdisciplinary manner across and b

157、eyond disciplines.Other initiatives highlighted in this introduction(e.g.Ocean Decade and Mission Ocean)also encourage researchers to work across e.g.topics and regions.The four chapters of Navigating the Future VI cover topics that cannot be addressed without doing so.This is by no means a straight

158、forward undertaking.It requires reaching across interfaces and jargon,with all the challenges that arise from doing so.But we should not be discouraged.The significant interconnections between the four Navigating the Future VI chapters demonstrate that we are already working at the interface between

159、 topics.We use infrastructure,equipment and methods that cross national and regional interfaces,and we as marine researchers and as humans naturally sit on a land-sea interface.We can take heart from this,and from the significant progress we have already made since Navigating the Future I.Truly work

160、ing across and beyond disciplines in our research is the next logical step for the marine research community.Navigating the Future VI will help us take that step.27 https:/unfccc.int/conference/un-climate-change-conference-december-2019 28 https:/documents-dds-ny.un.org/doc/UNDOC/LTD/N23/073/63/PDF/

161、N2307363.pdf?OpenElement29 https:/www.euroceanconferences.eu/vigo-declaration 21POSITION PAPER 2821222Ocean and PeopleCredit:Fuka Jaz,PexelsPOSITION PAPER 282323Marine sciences have shifted from studying natural systems individually,to considering their interconnections,including with human systems

162、and their multiple dimensions,such as cultures,needs and values(Link et al.,2017).The importance of the Ocean specifically for human health has been highlighted previously in EMB Position Paper N.19 on linking Ocean and human health(Moore et al.,2013),and subsequently in the SOPHIE Project Strategic

163、 Research Agenda for Ocean and human health in Europe(H2020 SOPHIE Consortium,2020),in EMB Policy Brief N.8 on the policy needs for Ocean and human health(European Marine Board,2020)and most recently in a report commissioned by the High Level Panel for a Sustainable Blue Economy(Fleming et al.,2024)

164、.However,the links between the Ocean and human societies and cultures have not been as well understood.2.1 Exploring the dynamic relationship between humans and the Ocean The dynamic relationship between humans and the Ocean has evolved over millennia,shaped by cultural,economic,and technological de

165、velopments.In addition to its role as a place for spiritual activities,the Ocean has historically been perceived as a vast territory to be discovered and a source of resources to be exploited for economic gain and to sustain livelihoods.In an increasingly populated and industrialised world,many soci

166、eties now believe that they exist separately from their natural environments,which has led to accelerated climate change,the loss of biodiversity and the degradation of marine habitats.We need to return to an understanding that humans are part of the marine ecosystem and implement these ideas in res

167、earch and policy.The concept of ecosystem services,which emerged in the 1970s,only reached the marine realm in the 2000s,when it marked a significant shift in thinking about the relationship between humans and nature.Later,the natural capital concept30,among others,emphasised the economic and non-ec

168、onomic value of ecosystem services,such as their cultural,spiritual,and ecological significance,as well as the importance of maintaining the resilience of marine ecosystems for the benefit of human communities.As a result,ecosystem services are typically clustered into three broad categories:provisi

169、oning services(e.g.fishing and aquaculture);regulatory and maintenance services(e.g.climate change buffering and carbon sequestration);and cultural services(e.g.tourism and recreation)(Wallace,2007).These concepts have played a crucial role in promoting a more comprehensive understanding of the inte

170、rdependence between humans and the natural world.However,they are all rooted in economic thinking,so they fail to capture the full range of values that need to be considered(Villasante et al.,2023).In addition,recent social science concepts,such as marine and blue justice(Bercht et al.,2021;Bennett

171、et al.,2023)are based on more relational approaches to nature(Nightingale et al.,2019).These approaches try to overcome a conceptual divide between nature and humans,or nature and culture.30 https:/ at the beachCredit:Leif Linding,Pixabay24EMB NAVIGATING THE FUTURE VI242.1.1 The many values of natur

172、e People experience the same marine environments in different ways because they have different world views,knowledge systems and personal values(Pascual et al.,2023).Values related to the(marine)environment can be broadly classified as instrumental(nature as a resource),intrinsic(inherent worth of n

173、ature),and relational(nature as part of culture,social cohesion and identity,e.g.stewardship for a place)(Chan et al.,2016).The values embraced by individuals and societies drive how they interact with the world and how they produce knowledge.While policies and research have mostly focused on instru

174、mental values of nature,as illustrated by the literature on ecosystem services(Pendleton et al.,2016),other values are also increasingly being considered,especially relational values and their links with human wellbeing,including in economic evaluations.Linked to the values that different people hav

175、e,different narratives or different ways of perceiving what sustainability means is key to many current maritime conflicts.These narratives(e.g.what are the different narratives,how can they impact on marine management decisions and interpretation)are still under-researched(Nightingale et al.,2019).

176、To foster this research the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services(IPBES)Task Forces on Scenarios and Models developed the Nature Futures Framework to explore positive futures based on varying degrees of emphasis on intrinsic,relational and instrumental rela

177、tional values(e.g.Pereira et al.,2023).For example,a seawall built of cement that ultimately causes erosion but currently appears to provide protection in a given area may be perceived by some as sustainable,whereas other coastal protection measures,such as planting vegetation to help stabilise sand

178、 dunes,may be interpreted as a more sustainable approaches by others.See EMB Position Paper N.27 on Coastal Resilience(Villasante et al.,2023)and Chapter 3 for more discussion on adaptation measures for climate change.Cultural values are very important drivers for the narratives that societies favou

179、r.Our European maritime cultural diversity is often intertwined with environmental values,such as fishing heritage,and is a key asset that needs to be protected in its own right(IPBES,2022).It also means that a highly transformed landscape can still produce significant cultural ecosystem services(Cu

180、sens et al.,2022).As we aim to standardise marine management objectives in a region with diverse maritime cultures,we must be aware that not all cultures understand and value the marine environment in a discrete,spatially fixed manner.This means that spatial planning alone,describing the marine envi

181、ronment as geographical delineations of human activities,does not capture the many ways in which the marine environment is perceived and experienced by coastal communities(e.g.in terms of culture,history,and physical and spiritual experiences).To properly account for these diverse sets of values,val

182、uation methods have had to evolve,as many of these methods relied on estimating the monetary value of nature.For example,cultural ecosystem services underpin marine tourism,the economically dominant sector of the Blue Economy,yet their value remains poorly integrated in ecosystem valuation exercises

183、(Erskine et al.,2021).IPBES(2022)introduced a methodological framework and guidance that accounts for the diversity of values related tonature,(IPBES,2022)which will help build a global consensus on how to account for natures contributions to our societies.With this valuation framework in place,the

184、challenge is to find ways for communities to demonstrate the existence of the natural capital they benefit from and improve its recognition and consideration in decision-making.2.1.2 Emergence and growing understanding of feedback between the Ocean and society Science is key to understanding the fee

185、dback between human activities and the marine environment through various economic,social,and ecological pathways.Indeed,human activities such as fishing,shipping,and tourism can significantly impact marine ecosystems,including changes in biodiversity and ecosystem status.Human activities can also c

186、hange the physical characteristics of the Ocean(Nash et al.,2017).In turn,the state of the marine environment can affect human society by impacting the resources,such as fish populations,water quality,recreational amenities,coastal landscapes,and marine seascapes(H2020 SOPHIE Consortium,2020).Some d

187、rastic human-induced ecosystem changes have already impacted human populations and their livelihoods(e.g.overexploitation-driven fish population collapses leading to changes in targeted fish species,or transitions to a growing service economy for coastal communities).Governance systems have yet to f

188、urther adapt to these human and ecosystem changes across spatial and temporal scales(Van Assche et al.,2020,see Section 2.4).Marine sciences study the feedback between changes in human activities and ecosystem changes and guidance from the scientific community is required on how to implement the nec

189、essary governance changes to be able to manage the multiple and interacting human pressures on the marine environment sustainably and holistically,as highlighted in EMB Position Paper N.27 on Coastal Resilience(Villasante et al.,2023).2.1.3 The role of science in marine conflicts Science,values,and

190、consideration of Ocean-human relations have evolved in a sea of conflicts that have been a part of human history since ancient times.For example,disputes over fishing rights,offshore drilling rights and control of shipping lanes have fuelled conflicts such as the North Atlantic Cod Wars between Icel

191、and and the UK(Katz,1973;Steinsson,2016).National and international politics,including ongoing and future conflicts and wars,deeply affect research(Robinson,2020),setting its priorities and resources,for example through funding.In turn,the role of science in understanding these conflicts and support

192、ing fair Ocean governance has significantly changed over the last decades,as has the value given to marine scientific knowledge.To design relevant policies,we need to understand these conflicts and deploy the mediation and science diplomacy to prevent escalation or additional conflict emerging from

193、these policies or in science-policy interfaces(Mackelworth et al.,2019).Science diplomacy can have a role in post-war conflict resolution and in demonstrating support to involved parties,with benefits for scientific research and the environment,and can promote inclusivity,diversity,evidence-based de

194、cision-making and capacity building.As 25POSITION PAPER 2825an example,in Ireland,the Peace programmes initiated in 199431 intended to support peace and reconciliation projects with Northern Ireland and the border counties.Created as a partnership between the European Commission and the governments

195、of UK and Ireland,the programme continues in its latest iteration as the Peace Plus32 programme,supporting peace and prosperity in Ireland.Themes identified for the post-conflict society include those linked to Biodiversity,Nature Recovery and Resilience;and Marine and Coastal Management and Water Q

196、uality33.Solidarity has also recently been demonstrated in December 2023 by the European Commission in the opening of a Horizon Europe office in Kyiv,Ukraine,and in launching a series of dedicated instruments34 under Horizon Europe to support Ukrainian researchers and start-ups.However,science diplo

197、macy remains a diplomatic tool that can also be used to assert political power(e.g.within the capacity of producing knowledge,which can lead to decisions)and national or international interests,for example over resources(Turnhout et al.,2020).Ocean science diplomacy,defined as the intersection of sc

198、ience with international Ocean affairs(Polejack,2021),has become one of the tools to address maritime conflicts,by fostering collaboration between nations on specific topics(e.g.sharing knowledge on scientific methods).This fosters broad scale international cooperation,including the development of s

199、hared solutions,such as Marine Protected Areas and sustainable fishing.Overall,science maintains a privileged place in policymaking,as demonstrated in the international discussions around the UN Biodiversity Beyond National Jurisdiction Treaty regarding Areas Beyond National Jurisdiction(ABNJ)(Schad

200、eberg et al.,2023).There has been a growing scientific focus on how policies and scholarship interact,questioning the portrayed image of objectivity.This has highlighted how the underlying assumptions of scientific knowledge production(e.g.favouring some actors and types of knowledges and expertise(

201、Prez-Hmmerle et al.,2024)and science policies(e.g.funding policies)are influenced by policy narratives,and consequently governance of marine spaces and people.As such,this is an area which deserves further attention if scientists are expected to work across disciplines and bring their expertise clos

202、er to decision-making.31 https:/www.seupb.eu/past-programmes/peace-platform32 https:/www.seupb.eu/peaceplus33 https:/static.gluons.ai/com_Qnwc2EZmEg/support/PEACEPLUS_Overview_24052023.pdf 34 https:/research-and-innovation.ec.europa.eu/strategy/strategy-2020-2024/europe-world/international-cooperati

203、on/association-horizon-europe/ukraine_en 35 See examples for each definition at https:/valuing- and the EMB Science Webinar given by Nicola Beaumont on interdisciplinary work https:/www.marineboard.eu/events/why-what-and-how-interdisciplinary-endeavour 2.2 Collaboration In the early 21st century we

204、face significant and/or unprecedented challenges,from pandemics,to wars,and the impacts of biodiversity loss and climate change.These challenges cannot be solved by single disciplines.In this context,navigating the complexities of human-Ocean relationships requires collaborative and integrative appr

205、oaches.For example,issues such as shifts in species distributions,coastal erosion,sea-level rise or marine pollution all require collaborative approaches that include natural science,economic,political,and social approaches coupled with non-academic stakeholders,in order to understand the drivers an

206、d develop solutions.Collaborative working extends beyond academic disciplines and includes businesses,policy advisors,policymakers and politicians,NGOs,local and Indigenous leaders,and a range of other stakeholders.It is also through collaborative work that one can learn to value the knowledge and p

207、ractices of others.There is a growing recognition of different knowledge systems,from various expertise andcommunities.Indigenous peoples and local communities are key actors in marine areas and hold a wealth of knowledge and know-how but can also be particularly affected by climate change and biodi

208、versity loss.While incomplete,the growing participation and recognition of these communities and other types of knowledge in science-policy interfaces show the benefits of including various perspectives for both science and policymaking,as illustrated by IPBES or the Global Biodiversity Framework(Fa

209、jardo et al.,2021).With the growing interest in interdisciplinarity,a multitude of terminologies has emerged.In Navigating the Future V(European Marine Board,2019),definitions for some of these terms were given to underpin Chapter 6 on Sustainability Science,although it is noted that they differ sli

210、ghtly from what is presented below.Whilst there are no right or wrong definitions,it is important to have agreed definitions when collaborating.In this document,we use the following definitions35(Figure 2.1):Figure 2.1 A spectrum of five forms of working across disciplines.Disciplines collaborating

211、can fully integrate methods and knowledge of one another and be merged into one discipline,hence the dotted arrow back to an intradisciplinary approach.Taken from https:/www.arj.no/2012/03/12/disciplinarities-2/Credit:Alexander Refsum Jensenius,CC-BY-SA 4.0IntradisciplinaryMultidisciplinaryCrossdisc

212、iplinaryInterdisciplinaryTransdisciplinary26EMB NAVIGATING THE FUTURE VI26Intradisciplinary working:Working within a single discipline either as an individual or a collaboration of people from the same discipline.A discipline is defined as a specific area of work.Crossdisciplinary:Working in one dis

213、cipline with awareness of one or more other disciplines but without in-depth communication or collaboration.Multidisciplinary:Several individuals or groups from different disciplines working together,sharing their knowledge in a way which is additive rather than integrative.Interdisciplinary:Deep in

214、tegration of knowledge and/or methods from two or more disciplines,leading to the establishment of a new level of discourse and/or methodological approaches.Transdisciplinary:Uniting of knowledge and methodologies beyond disciplinary perspectives,subordinating disciplines and resulting in an outcome

215、 which is not recognisable from the original parts.The term transdisciplinary is particularly controversial and can be understood as knowledge production that either transcends different disciplines,or that transcends the disciplines to work with non-academics(Strand et al.,2022).Whilst collaboratio

216、ns between academics and stakeholders are clearly crucial,these working relationships can be anywhere on the spectrum from cross-to transdisciplinary,and as such,using the term transdisciplinary to define this working relationship seems unnecessarily restrictive.It is also key to note that there is

217、no ideal place to work along this spectrum,and no one approach is better than another:it depends on the context.There is value in using collaborative approaches from across the spectrum highlighted above,but there should be clear and active communication from the outset between all parties about whe

218、re a project sits on this spectrum to avoid confusion,to ensure that the selected approach is appropriate for the questions being addressed,and to ensure the goals of the project are met.Integrating scientific and stakeholder knowledge is challenging but can follow the following seven guiding princi

219、ples in achieving successful collaborations as proposed by Beaumont(2020):Respect for the other disciplines and activities;Take time to learn and understand the language and methods;Communicate in ways understandable for everyone;Embrace personalities to bring different people to work together;Prepa

220、re not to miss any unfamiliarity across disciplines that needs consideration;Adapt to unpredictability;and Share about your experiences at all stages of the project.Most large projects now aspire to inter-and transdisciplinarity and many large funding programmes ask for it,including co-development w

221、ith non-academic collaborators,for example Belmont Forum36,Horizon Europe and Biodiversa+37.The review process for these funding streams needs to be updated to evaluate inter-and transdisciplinary projects,for example by ensuring a diverse review panel with relevant expertise in collaborative workin

222、g and including clear assessment criteria for transdisciplinarity(see for example the Belmont Forum).Given the different interpretations of the terminology,it is also important that funding calls are explicit in what level of collaboration they expect when using a particular term.This could assist b

223、oth in managing expectations and ensuring that the required level of collaboration is actually achieved in practice within the project.Once funded,success criteria need to be assigned to evaluate the multidisciplinary approach used.At present,funded projects often revert to more siloed working pract

224、ices once underway.This is exacerbated by the fact that developing meaningful inter-and transdisciplinary collaborations are very time consuming.Unfortunately,collaborations built on project funding are difficult to sustain post-funding and resources need to be constantly reinvested to maintain thes

225、e collaborations.Therefore,inter-and transdisciplinary efforts should be institutionalised.This includes restructuring institutions around societal challenges rather than disciplines in a meaningful manner(beyond the creation of centres which continue to depend financially on discipline-focused depa

226、rtments).Importantly,such changes are needed in knowledge creation institutions as well as policy delivering institutions.Seed funding could establish collaborations which can then be taken forward within normal project funding programmes.This could provide the time and opportunity for collaborative

227、 relationships to be established and may mean that the actual project work is also conducted more collaboratively.There are also limited structures in place for career development in inter-and transdisciplinary research.Inter-and transdisciplinary researchers can struggle to succeed,as research inst

228、itutes and promotion procedures tend to be organised by discipline and career evaluation criteria are driven by single discipline practices.Thus,although there is a clear need and aspiration for inter-and transdisciplinary approaches,the lack in organisational,institutional,and logistical structures

229、 result in a lack of capacity and very few successful applications.Examples of solutions could include the development of new metrics for success that take into account engagement in collaborative approaches,academic journals that focus on collaborative working,and/or better appreciation of collabor

230、ative outputs within existing journals.This would better reward inter-and transdisciplinary researchers within the current system of metrics based largely on publication.36 https:/www.belmontforum.org/37 https:/www.biodiversa.eu/27POSITION PAPER 2827Wind turbine installation vessel being loaded in O

231、stend,BelgiumCredit:EMB2.3 Blue Economy and the Oceans contribution to people As a provider of energy,goods and services,and a vector for trade,the Ocean is an essential and growing component of global economic development(Jouffray et al.,2020).In 2010,at the High-level Event on Biodiversity,Ban Ki-

232、Moon,the UN Secretary-General at that time declared Maintaining and restoring our natural infrastructure can provide economic gains worth trillions of dollars each year.Allowing it to decline is like throwing money out of the window.Investments in the sustainable Blue Economy(COM/2021/240 final,2021

233、)are expected to increase,driven by global population growth and its concentration in coastal areas,and by increased international wealth,particularly in emerging economies(OECD,2016).Understanding the economic trajectories of these activities and how they can be governed is critical and should be a

234、ddressed through understanding the underlying values and narratives of different groups of people,as well as the scientific methods and disciplines used(see Section 2.1.1).We approach this theme through an economic lens,and we will consider the governance questions it raises in the next section.The

235、Blue Economy is a controversial term(e.g.Voyer et al.,2018)and despite its growing importance,there is currently no harmonised international definition of the Blue Economy(see for example the definitions from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development(OECD),EU,System of Environmental

236、 Economic Accounting(SEEA),and no unified statistical system to track its evolution.Nevertheless,a consensus is emerging that for economic monitoring purposes,the Blue Economy can be defined as all the economic activities connected to the Ocean and coasts(Thbaud,2017).These activities rely on the ex

237、traction,processing,and use of maritime spaces or resources(living,energy or mineral),the exploitation of the physical properties of the sea and seabed,and the biophysical properties of marine and coastal sites.These Blue Economy activities include manufacturing and service sectors upstream of the i

238、ndustries that directly exploit the sea and the coast.The Blue Economy comprises established sectors such as maritime transport,shipbuilding,fishing and aquaculture,marine and coastal tourism,and oil and gas exploitation.It also includes highly technological sectors,such as undersea cables,or the co

239、nstruction of specialised ships.Furthermore,there are emerging sectors,such as the exploitation of offshore renewable energy,the exploitation of deep Ocean minerals,upscaling forms of aquaculture such as algal production,andthe development of marine biotechnologies.To date,efforts to characterise th

240、e Blue Economy have been largely limited to evaluating the economic production and jobs created by maritime sectors,and by non-commercial public services such 28EMB NAVIGATING THE FUTURE VI28as defence,environmental protection and research(Kalaydjian&Adeline,2022).In addition to the wealth and emplo

241、yment generated by these activities,we should also account for other values and ways of valuing nature,as highlighted in Section 2.1 and discussed below with respect to the importance of preserving ecosystem services.We need to gather data and better describe these values and their interaction with

242、ecosystem dynamics,economy and policymaking processes to better estimate where,when and by whom these values are used.When integrated,this information can lead to a better understanding of the current human needs from and interactions with the Ocean.Beyond the methods to assess the actual and potent

243、ial importance of the Blue Economy that still need to be developed,there is growing recognition that we need to strengthen our capacity to predict future trajectories of the Blue Economy to inform sustainable development policies.These predictions are key not only to understand future social,ecologi

244、cal and economic landscapes in a status quo scenario,but also to predict manners by which we can adapt to local,regional,or global uncontrollable changes.This requires identifying the main economic,technological,social,cultural,institutional and environmental drivers to which maritime activities wil

245、l respond,as well as the dynamics of these responses.We therefore need to develop methods that will allow us to understand how the Blue Economy could evolve,considering interacting sectors and multiple scales.It also needs an understanding of the complex feedback loops between these drivers and thei

246、r responses.This will require expanding the range of available methods and tools to analyse the future of the Blue Economy at multiple scales(e.g.Planque et al.,2019),including how it will adapt(ODonoghue et al.,2022).Research should also address the implications of cross-sectoral interactions(Bella

247、nger et al.,2020),equity considerations(Cisneros-Montemayor et al.,2021)and the role of social acceptability(Cavallo et al.,2021).We may build on existing Ocean observing systems(e.g.GOOS,EOOS)to include spatially explicit information on human activities,and their economic and social dimensions,to i

248、mprove our empirical understanding of spatio-temporal interactions between human activities and marine ecosystems,and their responses to multiple drivers.2.3.1 Oceans contribution to people During the second half of the 20th century,we focused on the impact of resource extraction on the ability of e

249、cosystems to continue providing these services(Millenium Ecosystem Assessment,2005).Now,multiple stressors(see Section 5.3)such as Ocean warming,deoxygenation and acidification,overfishing,invasive species,eutrophication,and pollution are impacting and changing marine ecosystems,affecting the servic

250、es they provide.The importance of valuing ecosystem services for sustainable development is now emphasised by many policy documents,such as the EU Blue Economy reports(European Commission,2020,2022),which were underpinned by the EMB Future Science Brief N.5 on Valuing Marine Ecosystem Services(Auste

251、n et al.,2019).We highlight the most well-known cultural,provisioning,and regulating services of the Ocean below.The resilience and maintenance of cultural services rests on maintaining biodiversity-rich ecosystems.It also relies on ensuring that communities using these cultural services can adapt t

252、o changing conditions(Villasante et al.,2023).This includes maintaining resilient recreation and tourism activities that can extract cultural services from changing ecosystems while contributing to protecting or restoring them.The provisioning services of the rich fisheries and aquaculture potential

253、 of the seas,if sustainably managed,can be a significant source of welfare for society and can support livelihoods and employment opportunities.The study of fish stock biology and stock assessments have dominated fisheries science,but a more comprehensive understanding of marine ecosystems,in which

254、fish populations play a key role,and where interactions with other ecosystems components,fishing behaviour and other oceanic uses are considered,is needed to ensure effective ecosystem-based management of fisheries and of the social-ecological systems that face multiple stressors.This is now taken u

255、p by the main body that calculates the amount of fish that can be caught in the North Atlantic,the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea(ICES38),who have broadened their mandate to include food web interactions in their work(WKFOODWEB).The Renewable Energy Directive(Directive 2018/200

256、1,2018)and the European Green Deal(COM/2019/640 final,2019)have also highlighted the role that the Ocean will need to play in providing space for renewable energy infrastructure development and energy generation.Regulatory services provided by healthy marine ecosystems include the key role they play

257、 in carbon sequestration,but its continuation is very dependent on keeping greenhouse gas emissions in check as is highlighted in EMB Policy Brief N.11 on Blue Carbon(European Marine Board,2023).These examples demonstrate a need for a greater multi-scale,mechanistic understanding of how human activi

258、ties are embedded in ecosystems to support ecosystem-based management.Given the rapid changes in human activities and climate,research into these processes must consider mitigation and adaptation scenarios regarding the impacts of climate change on marine social-ecological systems.One way to do this

259、 could be by using decision-making innovation laboratories39 dedicated to Ocean policy to test the impacts of different strategies.38 https:/www.ices.dk/;https:/www.ices.dk/community/groups/Pages/WKFoodWeb.aspx 39 https:/ideanote.io/blog/innovation-lab-know-everything29POSITION PAPER 28292.4 Underst

260、anding the governance of maritime activities2.4.1 Governance of common-pool resources A large fraction of the Blue Economy relies on the use and extraction of common pool resources for goods and services(Box 2.1),which are notoriously difficult to govern(Ostrom,1990).However,the literature has large

261、ly focused on specific sectors,such as fisheries,and relatively local systems(Cox et al.,2010).BlueEconomy diversification is generating conflicts that require coordination across multiple policies and jurisdictions(Bellanger et al.,2021).We need to understand how management systems can be sustained

262、 and adapted in the face of change(Young,2010)and the ways in which issues of equity and justice can be addressed for these systems to be broadly supported(Bennett et al.,2021).Marine Spatial Planning(MSP)and associated tools such as Marine Protected Areas(MPA)have become a favoured approach to addr

263、ess the complex challenge of managing human activities at sea across multiple objectives such as biodiversity,climate,energy and food production,and local employment(Chalastani et al.,2021).While this approach has many benefits,it is not a panacea.MSP can worsen competition and conflicts between sec

264、tors(Lester et al.,2018)and is not suitable for highly mobile species and human activities(e.g.fisheries)where restricted spatial management does not work(Bakker et al.,2019).However,it can also be an opportunity to address these conflicts.Multi-use MSP is emerging as a solution to make an efficient

265、 use of space at sea(Steins et al.,2021)by allowing compatible activities to share a common space.In addition to resolving the when and where of Blue Economy sectoral activities,which can be partially addressed through spatial management measures,questions related to who,how and how much are pivotal

266、 for ensuring sustainability and equity.2.4.2 Equity,justice,and powerWhen regulating access to Ocean resources and conducting MSP,it is important to understand that sustainable development means different things to different people(Tafon,2018)and regulating such common and wild resources involves c

267、omplex tracking and management of equity(Bennett,2018)and marine justice(Blythe et al.,2023),including within governing processes.Marine justice relies on ensuring that all communities have the same opportunities.This includes enabling everyone to participate in decision-making,not be exposed to uni

268、ntended injustices or environmental harm,e.g.from marine resource extraction or developments,and retain the power to enable the changes they choose(Martin et al.,2019).However,it also relies on ensuring that multiple sectors get the same opportunities to thrive without impairing societal goals such

269、as biodiversity and climate targets.In addition,ambitions to have a non-discriminatory and diverse labour market should be supported.Power symmetry(the balance of power among parties,e.g.in political influence,economic strength,and social authority)during planning is crucial to ensure that spatial p

270、lans include the socio-economic needs of local communities when balanced against wider societal goals(Gilek et al.,2021).Power asymmetries should be made explicit in the planning process and kept explicit in management schemes(Gerhardinger et al.,2022).We currently do not know how meeting multiple m

271、arine societal goals,through MSP or other means,will impact the integrity of communities neighbouring and depending on these common spaces.We also do not know whether communities will benefit from these spatial transformations.We therefore need to have programs to develop long-term integrated assess

272、ment approaches for Ocean policy at all scales,which also enable sustained interactions between researchers and other relevant stakeholders to understand these factors.As the largest contributor to employment and value added,marine tourism is the principal engine of the Blue Economy in Europe.Howeve

273、r,economic leakages(e.g.the loss of tourism income from a local community because profits are returned to offshore investors or jobs created not benefitting locals)can vary greatly between regions(European Commission,2023).The climate and biodiversity footprint of the sector are also non-trivial.In

274、addition,we also do not yet understand the broader unintended local positive or negative socio-economic consequences of large-scale offshore renewable energy installations beyond theoretical expectations assumed during impact assessments(Glasson et al.,2022).BOX 2.1 COMMON-POOL RESOURCES Common-pool

275、 resources are both non-exclusive in access(i.e.it is difficult,if not impossible,to exclude users from accessing the resource)and finite(e.g.when harvested,the resource is no longer available to other users).This creates what economists call externalities:the harvest by a user will have negative im

276、pacts(reduced harvest possibilities)for others,but if the user does not have to pay for these impacts,they will only consider their own costs and benefits.This leads to each user deploying excess harvesting capacity,therefore generating conflicts,and degrading the resources.Wild fish stocks,marine s

277、pace,biodiversity,and mineral resources are good examples of common-pool resources.Common-resources management involves the establishment of access regulations,i.e.individual or collective limitations on harvesting or access.30EMB NAVIGATING THE FUTURE VI302.4.3 Alternative governance and decision-m

278、aking processesGlobally,societal goals interact.We cannot achieve them in isolation,particularly as progressing towards one of these goals might deteriorate others(Lusseau&Mancini,2019).Diverse and efficient use of marine space and resources to achieve energy security,food provision,biodiversity res

279、toration,and maintain wellbeing requires new multi-scale and collaborative approaches.Polycentric Governance has been proposed as one approach to achieve this.In contrast to monocentric(top-down centralised)governance,it is designed by including multiple governing bodies at multiple scalesas shown i

280、n Figure 2.2(Morrison et al.,2019).Polycentric governance can be realised in many ways from global institutions(UN or EU functioning and states sovereignty)to sector-specific bodies(e.g.regional fisheries bodies),to locally based governance(MPA management committee).This approach is commonly encount

281、ered in the co-management of small-scale fisheries,where institutions may set maximum allowable catches and how the fisheries remain below this level is managed by fishers in consultation with other stakeholders(Whitehouse&Fowler,2018).By potentially spreading power and ensuring accountability,polyc

282、entric governance could more likely yield sustainability,including justice,in the management of common-good resources(Lubell&Morrison,2021).Such approaches are not limited to countries lacking governance capacity.A meta-analysis of hundreds of case studies in the Global North with high governance pe

283、rformance show that such co-management approaches provide better biodiversity conservation outcomes and sustainable exploitations(Newig et al.,2023).Implementing polycentric governance systems that are collaborative and inclusive has been identified as one of seven key principles for enhancing the r

284、esilience of social-ecological systems(Schoon et al.,2015),moving away from monocentric governance systems.This realignment of rights and responsibilities in common-resource exploitation can ensure more equitable representations in the management of common marine spaces within and between sectors.Po

285、lycentric marine governance is particularly attractive for transboundary MSP where local communities across borders have more common social and ecological interests and priorities than their respective centralised institutions share(Tuda et al.,2021).However,power dynamics remain a challenge for pol

286、ycentric governance success(Morrison et al.,2019),as power relationships can bias the representations of views in decision centres,as well as in rules design and interpretation(Figure 2.2)(Fortnam et al.,2022).Figure 2.2 Figure outlining how different power dynamics can interact in polycentric syste

287、ms of marine governance to affect their effectiveness and ability to yield equitable and just outcomes.Redrawn from(Morrison et al.,2019),see original for additional references.Credit:(Morrison et al.,2019).CC-BY-SA 4.0 DEEDPower in polycentricenvirontental governance3 types of powerKey social scien

288、ce conceptsPolitical science,international relations EU studies,federalism-Power and legitimacy(Weber,1922)-Decentralization(Crook and Manor,1998)-Orchestration(Abott,2017)Public policy,administration,governance,institutional economics-Rules-in-use(Ostrom,2010)-Practical authority(Abers and Keck,201

289、3)-Ecology of games(Lubell et al.,2017)Political sociology,political anthropology,political geography,political ecology-Enviromentality(Agrawal,2005;Leach 2008)-Weapons of the weak(Scott,2008)-Narrative networks(Lejano et al.,2013)Use of power by design-to design rules and incentives across centers

290、of authorityUse of pragmatic power-to interpret and implement rules across centres of authorityUse of framing power-to frame problems,set norms and infuence discourse across centers of authorityPolycentric systemRelationships of powerCenters of authority31POSITION PAPER 28312.5 Socio-ecological tran

291、sformation and transformative adaptationAs mass movements such as“Fridays for Future”and the efforts to mainstream climate governance have shown,there is a growing understanding of the necessity for social-ecological transformation,i.e.a fundamental,system-wide reorganisation across technological,ec

292、onomic and social dimensions,building on new paradigms,goals and values(IPBES,2022).Yet,both the design&goals of such a transformation are socially contested(Adloff&Neckel,2021).Debates focus particularly on whether structural changes in our economic system are required,or whether only marginal chan

293、ges in(environmental)policy and the use of technical solutions are sufficient(Nightingale et al.,2020).Current policies focus primarily on technical innovation as an answer to the socio-ecological crisis(Klepp&Hein,2023).This includes the idea that steady economic growth can be maintained through te

294、chnological progress that does not destroy the environment.The sustainable Blue Economy debate mainly uses this logic,aiming to maintain growth through the exploitation of marine resources without causing ecological harm(Ertr&Hadjimichael,2020).However,permanent growth is not physically possible des

295、pite continuous innovations and more efficient forms of resource use(Kurz,2019).The rebound effect persists:our use of resources has continued to increase and has cancelled out progress and savings made due to more efficient technologies.Boats have become bigger,fishing power has grown and spread in

296、to areas previously out of reach,and mineral extraction is considered in places we are just discovering(Jouffray et al.,2020).A more far-reaching transformational approach calling for structural social change and social innovation is needed that reconsiders paradigms,assumptions,deeply held beliefs

297、and the way humans relate to nature,which is currently only treated as a commodity(Nightingale et al.,2020).Transformative adaptations are restructuring,path-shifting,innovative,multi-scale,system-wide and persistent measures and interventions(Fedele et al.,2019).We could choose to adapt to our chan

298、ging environments in ways that are different from previously chosen unsustainable pathways.Since specific societal structures and the still prevailing paradigm of continuous growth have led to these crises,we need deep,structural changes to solve our current problems.However,activating deeper levera

299、ge points that address rooted structural issues is significantly more difficult than enacting shallower techno-centric solutions(Abson et al.,2017).A concrete example of how transformative climate change adaptation might be a catalyst for social innovation and gender equality on land and sea is gend

300、er-transformative climate change adaptation(Resurreccin et al.,2019).Mainstream climate mitigation and adaptation approaches are based on the same exploitative structures of humans and of natural resources that have led to todays socio-ecological crisis.Gender-transformative adaptation necessitates

301、paying attention to gender balance in planning and decision-making bodies at different administrative scales and considering labour issues at the forefront of climate risk analyses.Gender-transformative adaptation shows the deep interlinkages of social and ecological exploitation and can be used to

302、tackle unsustainable human-Ocean relationships in times of social-ecological crisis.This is important because the Ocean is undergoing drastic and continuing changes,and Ocean sector employment is highly gender structured(Blythe et al.,2023).It also links to Ocean science itself,as the improvement of

303、 employment opportunities for women in marine science is crucial,also for more effective conservation efforts(Giakoumi et al.,2021).2.6 Tools and enablersIncreasing Ocean literacy is critically needed as we are becoming globally disconnected from nature(Soga and Gaston,2018),with Ocean-related topic

304、s being under-represented in our experiences of nature and in curricula(Costa and Caldeira,2018).An Ocean literate person can understand the importance of the Ocean for humankind.They are able to communicate about the Ocean in a meaningful way and can hopefully behave more responsibly towards the Oc

305、ean and its resources.Concern raised by an Ocean literate public may also put additional pressure on governments and corporations to act.Ocean literacy helps to make the invisible more visible.However,Ocean literacy campaigns should target at all of society,moving away from youth-and western-centric

306、 programmes(Kelly et al.,2022).To better understand the evolving interaction between humanity and the Ocean and to work towards the required transformations,we need data.However,not all data are or must be generated specifically by and for scientific research.Citizen science initiatives can serve as

307、 a means to enhance Ocean literacy,and can gather scientific information,including on marine biodiversity(e.g.within-species,functional,ecological and microbial diversity),fresh water(e.g.aquatic pollution,such as contaminants of emerging concern(CECs),and climate(e.g.physical properties such as coa

308、stal temperature).These initiatives have the capacity to promote participatory management of common resources,governance and decision-making,which can enhance the scientific capacities of citizens(Gbel et al.,2019).An increasing number of citizen science initiatives are being established across Euro

309、pe,with most registered on the EU citizen science platform40.For example,in the well-established citizen science initiative Coastsnap,volunteers contribute pictures of the coast at fixed stations to identify long-term changes along European coastlines(Harley&Kinsela,2022).40 https:/eu-citizen.scienc

310、e/32EMB NAVIGATING THE FUTURE VI32Coastsnap images from the Ostend beach station in July 2021 and March 2022Credit:Sheila Heymans33POSITION PAPER 2833ABIn addition to robust approaches able to verify that reported data are scientifically valid,successful citizen science projects require a medium-to

311、long-term approach,and investment in training and retaining volunteers.The emotional,learning,and social aspects of engagement should be increasingly considered in monitoring the impacts of these participatory approaches,rather than only the number of volunteers involved in data collection(Phillips

312、et al.,2019).This includes,for example,assessing the changing knowledge and relationship built with the studied organisms or the cohesion and dynamics developed within the group of participants.Such long-term and adaptive citizen science projects still need to be developed in Europe and could learn

313、from successful initiatives such as Reef Check Australia(Schlppy et al.,2017),which uses an adaptive project to assess opportunities,and revisit protocols and the focus of the initiative to incorporate the vision of participants and improve community engagement throughout the project lifespan.The wi

314、despread use of the internet,and in particular social media,has created opportunities for collecting multimedia ecological data generated incidentally by humans(known as Internet Ecology,or iEcology).An example is the assessment of seasonal migration patterns of salmon based on Wikipedia page view f

315、requency(i.e.it is likely that people will view the pages more often when they actually see the salmon,indicating when they are migrating)and on images uploaded to social media(Jari et al.,2020).These tools can potentially be used for ecological monitoring and have been used to identify priority con

316、servation areas(Giovos et al.,2018)and to track phenology41 changes(Mittermeier et al.,2019).These are particularly useful for socio-ecological research,by plementing data-poor recreational fishing studies(Monkman et al.,2018)or investigating human habits and perceptions(Sbragaglia et al.,2022).Desp

317、ite the potential,iEcology-derived data have biases,subjectivity(e.g.unequitable reporting due to users preferences for some species),non-randomness(e.g.data availability is related to human population density)and potential ethical issues(e.g.privacy)that need to be considered.The lack of accessibil

318、ity of the offshore marine environment also limits the success of citizen science and iEcology projects in these areas,thus most deal with iconic species of marine megafauna(mammals and birds),coastal biodiversity and pollution(Garcia-Soto et al.,2021).The recent EU Open Science policy42 and the inc

319、reasing availability of reusable data(following the FAIR principles)is rapidly increasing the amount of Ocean-related data available for research,with a growing consideration for data related to human dimensions,which raises specific challenges.This vast body of information is also fuelling the appl

320、ication of artificial intelligence in social-ecological research.For example,the use of machine learning to process and analyse large datasets,removing the need for manual intervention,could be a rapid and cost-effective tool for advancing and widening Ocean monitoring(McClure et al.,2020).Going fur

321、ther,deep learning could also help identify some cultural preferences in marine research and conservation by analysing the social media and citizen science interactions of different profiles(Havinga et al.,2023).Improved data availability supports the development of mechanistic models as well,which

322、can explore the current state of human-Ocean relationships as well as simulate and forecast future scenarios with different degrees of uncertainty(Macher et al.,2021).It can also be used in living labs,i.e.co-created inter-sectoral fora that can explore wider social-ecological challenges,which commo

323、nly operate though iterative feedback cycles aiming to be sustainable in the long-term(Hossain et al.,2019).Further exploring innovative frameworks to allow transdisciplinary collaboration while addressing social-ecological conflicts should be a priority in marine research.41 Phenology is the study

324、of the timing of recurring biological events(e.g.seasonal migrations or spawning),the causes of their timing in relation to biotic and abiotic forces,and the interrelation among phases of the same or different species42 https:/research-and-innovation.ec.europa.eu/strategy/strategy-2020-2024/our-digi

325、tal-future/open-science_en 34EMB NAVIGATING THE FUTURE VI342.7 Recommendations2.7.1 Recommendations for policy and management Ensure that the evaluation of marine strategies more formallyincludes ecological,economic,social,and cultural values.These evaluations should,in return,inform policies on mar

326、ine protection,fisheries management,coastal planning,climate strategies,and cultural preservation,ensuring harmonious coexistence with our marine environment;Increase capacity for inter-and transdisciplinary research,including by:i)explicitly designing inter-and transdisciplinarity into research cal

327、ls,applications and review processes;ii)funding the developmental stages of interdisciplinary collaborations and interactions with stakeholders,as well as ensuring that the relationship can be maintained post-project,and iii)enabling training for collaboration across disciplines and beyond academia,

328、including for Early Career Ocean Professionals;Develop decision-making innovation laboratories dedicated to Ocean policy issues to test the impacts of management strategies under alternative future scenarios,and track,audit and analyse the effects of implementing diverse decision-support approaches(

329、e.g.participatory approaches);Analyse and reform Ocean governance to ensure equity in the participation of various communities and inclusion of values and knowledges.This includes the workings behind decision-making,such as the role of science and scientists,the voting systems or the representativit

330、y of powerful actors;Consider Ocean science-policy interfaces as places to address conflicts,notably through science diplomacy,being aware that Ocean governance is influenced by and influences the emergence and resolution of conflicts at many scales;Strengthen the connections between research on the

331、 social,economic,political and legal dimensions of Ocean governance,which would require reforming the bodies mandated to regulate and coordinate the multiple uses of the Ocean,to include all these dimensions and avoid fragmentation and silos;Recognise the need for structural change that is not based

332、 on growth paradigms and that acknowledges the vulnerability and finite nature of Ocean resources and design actionable and testable roadmaps for a stepwise transformation towards the proposed alternative frameworks.This requires:i)understanding that humans are part of the marine ecosystem,ii)the de

333、velopment of Blue Economy policies that allow for structural and equitable change for the effective protection of the Ocean,as well as communities and their livelihoods,and iii)marine protection mechanisms that are culturally and socially appropriate and do not reinforce(old or new)social inequalities;and Use complementary criteria such as emotional,learning,and social aspects to monitor engagemen