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1、USVC ValuationsReportSponsored byQ320242PitchBook Data,Inc.Nizar Tarhuni Executive Vice President of Research and Market IntelligenceDylan Cox,CFA Head of Private Markets ResearchInstitutional Research GroupAnalysisContentsSponsored byQ3 2024 US VC VALUATIONS REPORTPublished on November 6,2024Click

2、here for PitchBooks report methodologies.PublishingReport designed by Chloe Ladwig and Joey SchafferDataCollin Anderson Data AMarket overview4Dealmaking6Cybersecurity10A word from Morgan Stanley at Work11Life sciences13Investor trends14Liquidity16Kyle Stanford,CAIA Lead Analyst,Venture Capital Emily

3、 Zheng Senior Analyst,Venture Capital 2024 Morgan Stanley Smith Barney LLC.Member SIPC.CRC 3909654 10/2024Morgan Stanley at Work services are provided by Morgan Stanley Smith Barney LLC,member SIPC,and/or its affiliates,all wholly owned subsidiaries of Morgan Stanley.What can you do today to be set

4、up for success tomorrow?Discover what steps you can take to stay transaction ready and manage the expectations of your shareholders ahead of a corporate action.Staying Private Longer?Heres How to Address Your Liquidity Needs The pressure for employees to access liquidity may continue to build as you

5、r company stays private longer.A liquidity event can take some of the pressure off and having the right systems,processes,and people in place can be critical for planning a successful corporate action.However,companies often underestimate the amount of work required,which can lead to costly transact

6、ion delays.Request a Free Transaction Readiness Assessment4Sponsored byQ3 2024 US VC VALUATIONS REPORTMARKET OVERVIEWMarket overview26.7%31.6%14.2%2.3%26.1%35.1%11.3%2.5%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%20142015201620172018201920202021202220232024SeedEarly-stage VCLate-stage VCVenture growthSource:PitchBoo

7、k Geography:US As of September 30,2024The market pricing shifts that began in earnest in 2022 have remained largely in a state of rebalancing.Q3 median pre-money valuations are high,though a large amount of context is needed for those figures,particularly considering that valuation growth for compan

8、ies has been slow.The annualized growth rates between rounds,or relative velocity of value creation(RVVC),have cratered by a wide margin from the highest point in the past decade in 2021 to the lowest in that time frame.That the economy did not collapse has likely kept revenues high for many compani

9、es,but revenue multiples in VC market valuations have declined significantly.Annual valuation growth may not be a metric that investors look at to determine winners necessarily,but it can highlight how market mechanics can deteriorate returns for investors.The foremost issue the market is navigating

10、 is the lack of distributions to LPs.The pressure caused by few large exits has been compounded by the high growth of market value in the past few years.Currently,VC-backed companies in the US are valued at more than$4 trillionmore than double the$1.7 trillion value of the market in 2020.From a comp

11、any RVVC highlights challenges brought on by previous high valuations Median RVVC by stage25.9%26.6%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%20142015201620172018201920202021202220232024Source:PitchBook Geography:US As of September 30,2024Pricing challenges highlighted by down roundsDown and flat rounds as a share of all

12、VC rounds5Q3 2024 US VC VALUATIONS REPORTSponsored byMARKET OVERVIEW0102030405060708090100Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q32018201920202021202220232024Early-Stage IndexLater-Stage IndexVenture-Growth-Stage IndexStartup friendlyInvestor friendlySource:PitchBook Geography:US As of

13、 September 30,2024Though the market has moved in a startup-friendly direction,it remains in investor favor VC Dealmaking Indicatorperspective,the high valuations raised a couple years ago have made it difficult to position for an exit.Companies face either public market investors unwilling to pay a

14、similar price or acquirers looking for steep discounts in an uncertain economic environment.For investors and LPs,the holding value of stakes acquired at high prices is unstable and the prospect of down rounds and further dilution to stakes isincreasing.In our VC Dealmaking Indicator,the market has

15、moved back toward balance between investor-and startup-friendliness over the past several quarters.This is in part due to the relative strength of deal activity,lack of investor-protective terms,and continued high valuations placed on new rounds.The cautiously optimistic movement of the model has be

16、en biased to the heavy activity in AI,which has accounted for more than one-quarter of deal count and more than one-third of deal value.Competition akin to the exuberant market of 2021 has driven AI investment.Across venture stages,AI prices are much higher than other sectors and technologies.The li

17、ght at the end of a very long tunnel was the rate cut by the Federal Reserve(the Fed)in September.Though a single cut will not alleviate the market challenges or bring pricing back to market highs,continued economic growth and an increase of risk in the market should both help companies continue gro

18、wth and also slowly decrease the bid-ask spread in the market.6Q3 2024 US VC VALUATIONS REPORTSponsored byDEALMAKINGDealmakingElevated valuations attributed to delayed fundraisingEarly-stage VC pre-money valuation($M)dispersion$0$50$100$150$200$25020142015201620172018201920202021202220232024Top and

19、bottom quartile rangeTop decileMedianBottom decileAverageSource:PitchBook Geography:US As of September 30,2024Startups wait longer to fundraiseMedian time(years)between rounds by stage1.31.41.82.01.61.60.00.51.01.52.020142015201620172018201920202021202220232024Early-stage VCLate-stage VCVenture grow

20、thSource:PitchBook Geography:US As of September 30,2024Median valuations have increased across all venture stages when compared with the past two years.In fact,for most stages these valuations even exceeded the medians from 2021 when venture activity was at its peak.This upward trajectory,coupled wi

21、th the beginning of rate cuts by the Fed,has left the industry optimistic for ventures grand return.These numbers alone do not tell the whole story of the current venture environment.It continues to battle headwinds from still-high interest rates,which have dampened exit activity,the flow of distrib

22、utions back to LPs,and the amount of capital being reinvested into the asset class.Median valuations may be high,but valuation growth is not.Rather,these high medians are being elevated by companies that last raised during the zero-interest-rate-policy(ZIRP)era.These startups locked in high valuatio

23、ns when capital was much easier to attain and are finally returning to market after extending their cash runways for as long as possible.The median time between rounds has been steadily increasing since 2022 across most stages.For instance,a majority of later-stage venture-backed companies have wait

24、ed over two years to raise their next round,compared with the median of 1.67 years from 2022.This trend will likely continue as more startups return to raise subsequent capital.7Q3 2024 US VC VALUATIONS REPORTSponsored byDEALMAKINGGreatest percentage of flat and down rounds in a decadeShare of VC de

25、al count by up,down,and flat roundsSlowing pace of value creationMedian VVC between rounds by stage0%20%40%60%80%100%20142015201620172018201920202021202220232024DownFlatUp$10.4$16.9$5.8$5.6$0$5$10$15$20$25$30$35$4020142015201620172018201920202021202220232024Early-stage VCLate-stage VCSource:PitchBoo

26、k Geography:US As of September 30,2024Source:PitchBook Geography:US As of September 30,2024Valuations have also been elevated by outsized AI deals,which are not representative of ventures overall dealmaking activity.Investor caution for the rest of venture has not been applicable to AI companies bec

27、ause these investors are willing to pay high prices for fear of missing out on the next innovation wave.In Q3,Anduril Industries,a defense tech company that uses AI in its weapons systems,raised a$1.5 billion Series F at a$12.5 billion pre-money valuation.These figures far exceed this years venture-

28、growth medians of$5.5 million in deal value and$261.4 million in pre-money valuation.Also in Q3,AI research lab Safe Superintelligence raised$1 billion for its very first round at a$4 billion pre-money valuation.First-time financings of this magnitude are uncommon,which is illustrated when comparing

29、 Safe Superintelligences deal to 2024s median early-stage deal value of$5.5 million and median pre-money valuation of$44.8 million.A better temperature check that measures ventures slowing growth is the combined percentage of flat and down rounds,which is at a decade high of 26.6%.Over the past thre

30、e quarters,10.8%of deals have been flat,while 15.9%have been down.Cooling valuations help provide more accurate reflections of company fundamentals,which can be beneficial,though down rounds create dilution risk for employees and existing investors without protections.8Q3 2024 US VC VALUATIONS REPOR

31、TSponsored byDEALMAKINGMuted growth between roundsMedian RVVC between rounds by stageLow valuation growth between seriesMedian step-up by series31.6%35.1%14.2%11.3%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%20142015201620172018201920202021202220232024Early-stage VCLate-stage VC1.5x1.6x1.4x1.5x1.3x1.2x1.1x1.1x1.0 x1.

32、2x1.4x1.6x1.8x2.0 x2.2x2.4x2.6x20142015201620172018201920202021202220232024Series ASeries BSeries CSeries D+Source:PitchBook Geography:US As of September 30,2024Source:PitchBook Geography:US As of September 30,2024Companies are finding it difficult to keep advancing at the same pace as when they las

33、t raised.This is partly because their valuations are already high,but also because investors have been increasingly cautious to add more money to venture,which makes dealmaking and justifying high company prices even tougher.Therefore,even though 73.4%of deals are still up,RVVC has taken a steep dow

34、nturn since the ZIRP era as valuations are reset to more reasonable levels.The median annualized percentage growth in early-stage valuation is 35.1%,a 74.5%decrease from 2021s RVVC and the second-lowest level in the past 10 years.Similarly,the later-stage median RVVC is at a decade low of 11.3%,whic

35、h is an 83%decrease from 2021.The median step-up between series also reflects this pattern of growth,or lack thereof.For example,the median Series D+step-up is only 1.1x,which is barely an increase from companies last round and is nearly half the market growth levels from 2021.Overall,the high valua

36、tions from dealmaking are more reflective of the value captured two to three years ago and by the AI hype rather than a true representation of the strength of todays venture market.9Q3 2024 US VC VALUATIONS REPORTSponsored byDEALMAKINGAverage dividend falls backAverage dividendCumulative dividends d

37、ecline alongside overall investor friendlinessCumulative dividends as share of all dividends7.2%7.1%6.8%6.9%7.0%7.1%7.2%7.3%7.4%2014201520162017201820192020202120222023202422.6%21.7%0%5%10%15%20%25%20142015201620172018201920202021202220232024Source:PitchBook Geography:US As of September 30,2024Sourc

38、e:PitchBook Geography:US As of September 30,202410Q3 2024 US VC VALUATIONS REPORTSponsored byCYBERSECURITYCybersecurityCybersecurity deal value trending up for seed and venture growthMedian cybersecurity VC deal value($M)by stageVCs are acquiring smaller stakes in early-stage and venture-growth comp

39、aniesMedian cybersecurity VC share acquired by stageHigher valuations driven by ZIRP-era roundsMedian cybersecurity VC pre-money valuation($M)by stageEarly-stage step-up reflects high investor interestMedian cybersecurity VC valuation step-up by stage$4.0$12.5$14.0$26.5$5.0$10.0$12.2$55.7$0$20$40$60

40、$80$100$12020142015201620172018201920202021202220232024SeedEarly-stage VCLate-stage VCVenture growth25.0%26.0%25.0%21.1%16.9%17.0%11.6%9.8%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%20142015201620172018201920202021202220232024SeedEarly-stage VCLate-stage VCVenture growth$13.0$45.0$105.9$256.3$14.8$62.0$82.0$844.3$0$200$

41、400$600$800$1,000$1,200$1,40020142015201620172018201920202021202220232024SeedEarly-stage VCLate-stage VCVenture growth1.0 x1.5x2.0 x2.5x3.0 x20142015201620172018201920202021202220232024SeedEarly-stage VCLate-stage VCVenture growthSource:PitchBook Geography:US As of September 30,2024Source:PitchBook

42、Geography:US As of September 30,2024Source:PitchBook Geography:US As of September 30,2024Source:PitchBook Geography:US As of September 30,202411Q3 2024 US VC VALUATIONS REPORTA WORD FROM MORGAN STANLEY AT WORKA WORD FROM MORGAN STANLEY AT WORKStaying private longer:Impact on corporate actionsWho is

43、Morgan Stanley at Work?Morgan Stanley at Work provides workplace financial benefits that help build financial confidence and foster loyaltyhelping companies attract and retain talent.Our end-to-end offering spans Equity,Retirement,Deferred Compensation,Executive Services,and Saving and Giving Soluti

44、ons.Each solution includes a powerful combination of modern technology,insightful support,and dedicated service,providing your employees with the knowledge and tools to help make the most of their benefits and achieve their life goals.Whether preparing for a liquidity event or an IPO,planning a rele

45、ase of restricted stock units,or expanding your equity plan,Morgan Stanley at Work can help you take charge of where you are today and where youre going next.Why are companies staying private longer and rethinking their approach to equity and liquidity?Not that long ago,an IPO was considered an impo

46、rtant and necessary milestone for a maturing private company looking to reach the next growth stage.However,the influx of capital into the private markets in recent years has given private companies greater flexibility to stay private longerin some cases indefinitely.This trend,coupled with uncertai

47、nty in the public markets,has led more private companies to delay their IPO plans and reallocate the resources they would have spent on public listing and regulatory requirements toward continued innovation,growth,and business optimization.But as companies stay private longer,they also must consider

48、 the impact to their equity compensation plan.According to our 2024 State of the Workplace Financial Benefits Study,84%of employees believe equity compensation to be the most effective way to motivate a workforce.1 Employees work hard for their equity,which gives them a meaningful stake in the succe

49、ss of the business;however,some want and need the ability to liquidate some of that equity even when theres no Shawn MurphyManaging Director Head of Private Markets at Morgan Stanley at WorkShawn has more than 20 years worth of experience across financial services,fintech,microfinance,equity managem

50、ent,and private markets.Shawns team delivers equity management,liquidity,and workplace solutions to private companies and investors.In her role,Shawn oversees growth initiatives from expansion into new and adjacent products to evolving existing capabilities.IPO or exit event on the immediate horizon

51、.As a result,some private companies are taking a proactive approach to liquidity.Additionally,93%of private companies reported that the possibility of a company having a liquidity event is valuable to a prospective hiring decision.2 Hence,some companies allow employees and investors to sell their eq

52、uity to third-party buyers through one-off transactions;others let employees and investors borrow against their equity.However,the most popular mechanism for companies to grant partial liquidity to their participants is through organized liquidity programs where the company maintains control over wh

53、o can participate and how much equity can be sold.To date,Morgan Stanley at Work has executed over 290 of these issuer-led liquidity events worth over$22 billion.How are current market conditions impacting IPOs and liquidity events?Despite a 30%year-over-year lift in IPO listings,3 the IPO market re

54、mains relatively quiet compared to prior years.With ongoing geopolitical events and market uncertainty,we expect more companies to sit on the sidelines and wait for IPO conditions to improve.1:“State of the Workplace 2024 Financial Benefits Study,”Morgan Stanley at Work,2024.2:“Liquidity Trends:Pers

55、pectives From Private Company Leaders,”Morgan Stanley at Work,June 24,2023.3:“Optimism Builds for the 2024 IPO Market,”EY,Rachel Gerring and Mark Schwartz,October 17,2024.Sponsored by12Q3 2024 US VC VALUATIONS REPORTA WORD FROM MORGAN STANLEY AT WORKMorgan Stanley Smith Barney LLC(“Morgan Stanley”),

56、its affiliates and Morgan Stanley Financial Advisors or Private Wealth Advisors do not provide tax or legal advice.Clients should consult their tax advisor for matters involving taxation and tax planning and their attorney for legal matters.Employee stock plan solutions are offered by E*TRADE Financ

57、ial Corporate Services,Inc.,Solium Capital LLC,Solium Plan Managers LLC and Morgan Stanley Smith Barney LLC(“MSSB”),which are part of Morgan Stanley at Work.Morgan Stanley at Work services and stock plan accounts are provided by wholly owned subsidiaries of Morgan Stanley.Morgan Stanley at Work stoc

58、k plan accounts were previously referred to as Shareworks,StockPlan Connect or E*TRADE stock plan accounts,as applicable.In connection with stock plan solutions offered by Morgan Stanley at Work,securities products and services are offered by MSSB,Member SIPC.E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley is a registe

59、red trademark of MSSB.All entities are separate but affiliated subsidiaries of Morgan Stanley.The laws,regulations,and rulings addressed by the products,services,and publications offered by Morgan Stanley and its affiliates are subject to various interpretations and frequent change.Morgan Stanley an

60、d its affiliates do not warrant these products,services,and publications against different interpretations or subsequent changes of laws,regulations,and rulings.Morgan Stanley and its affiliates do not provide legal,accounting,or tax advice.Always consult your own legal,accounting,and tax advisors.2

61、024 Morgan Stanley.All rights reserved.CRC 3909654 10/2024Meanwhile,pressure for employee liquidity will continue to build.Therefore,it is important that companies take the time to become“transaction-ready.”Transaction readiness means ensuring a company has the right people,processes,and systems in

62、place to be able to execute a significant corporate actionsuch as an IPO or liquidity eventwhen the timing is right.Proactively planning within 18 months of a liquidity event or IPO can help maintain greater control over timing and reduce the risk of complications while also helping streamline daily

63、 operations beyond the transaction date.How can companies keep their employees engaged as they remain private longer?Employee engagement and education has become increasingly important,especially for companies with no immediate plans to go public.To get the most out of their equity,employees must un

64、derstand what it is worth,how it reflects their contribution to the business,and how it supports their overall financial well-being.Companies that effectively communicate and engage their shareholders on an ongoing basis can experience higher employee satisfaction and retention rates.At the same tim

65、e,employees may increasingly be looking to their employers for help with their specific financial challenges,especially in todays uncertain economic climate.Companies may have a significant opportunity to augment equity education with retirement planning and more holistic financial guidance.Offering

66、 these resources can send a powerful message about how a company continues to invest in its employees as it heads into the next stage of growth and beyond.Sponsored by13Q3 2024 US VC VALUATIONS REPORTSponsored byLIFE SCIENCESLife sciencesDeal sizes tick upward in 2024Median life sciences VC deal val

67、ue($M)by stageLittle change in stake acquiredMedian life sciences VC share acquired by stageValuations see boost YoYMedian life sciences VC pre-money valuation($M)by stageMedian step-ups decline outside of early stageMedian life sciences VC valuation step-up by stage$2.6$3.0$7.7$10.4$6.5$8.2$10.5$11

68、.2$0$2$4$6$8$10$12$14$1620142015201620172018201920202021202220232024SeedEarly-stage VCLate-stage VCVenture growth27.6%26.2%33.9%36.0%22.5%25.9%16.8%16.5%$0$5$10$15$20$25$30$35$4020142015201620172018201920202021202220232024SeedEarly-stage VCLate-stage VCVenture growth$10.0$15.0$35.0$37.8$44.8$60.3$81

69、.5$180.0$0$20$40$60$80$100$120$140$160$18020142015201620172018201920202021202220232024SeedEarly-stage VCLate-stage VCVenture growth1.0 x1.5x2.0 x2.5x20142015201620172018201920202021202220232024SeedEarly-stage VCLate-stage VCVenture growthSource:PitchBook Geography:US As of September 30,2024Source:Pi

70、tchBook Geography:US As of September 30,2024Source:PitchBook Geography:US As of September 30,2024Source:PitchBook Geography:US As of September 30,202414Q3 2024 US VC VALUATIONS REPORTSponsored byINVESTOR TRENDSInvestor trendsValuation spread highlights crossovers flight to qualityMedian late-stage V

71、C pre-money valuation($M)with crossover investor participation$155.5$198.0$42.5$58.0$0$50$100$150$200$250$300$35020142015201620172018201920202021202220232024Crossover investorNo crossover investorSource:PitchBook Geography:US As of September 30,2024Second-highest venture-growth median valuation this

72、 decadeMedian venture-growth pre-money valuation($M)with crossover investor participation$638.8$1,480.0$95.0$180.0$0$200$400$600$800$1,000$1,200$1,400$1,60020142015201620172018201920202021202220232024Crossover investorNo crossover investorSource:PitchBook Geography:US As of September 30,2024Median v

73、aluations are significantly higher for rounds with crossover investor participation,highlighting these nontraditional investors flight to quality.For late-stage companies,the median valuation with crossovers is$198 million year to date,compared with$58 million without.Venture-growth companies have a

74、n even wider gap,with a$1.5 billion median valuation with crossovers,which is the second highest in a decade after 2021s peak,compared with only$180 million without.The difference in median valuations is due primarily to crossover investors frequent participation in outsized deals,rather than an ind

75、icator of increased capital availability.Strong individual companies have been able to close these large deals with big investors despite VCs overall tepid dealmaking environment,so their successes should not be considered as a positive indicator for the overall venture market.Crossover investors ar

76、e hyperfocused on investing in the strongest companies because their heavy involvement in the ZIRP-era boom left them stuck with bloated VC portfolios when exit activity plummeted.Crossover investors preference for quality is demonstrated through their participation in six out of the top 10 deals th

77、is quarter.Out of all Q3 deals with crossover investor participation,26.4%were megadeals of over$100 million.15Q3 2024 US VC VALUATIONS REPORTSponsored byINVESTOR TRENDSHigher valuations across alternative investor typesMedian VC pre-money valuation($M)by investor typeCVC investorPE investorAsset ma

78、nagerGovernment/SWFOther tourist investor$66.0$67.7$76.1$145.0$137.5$140.0$125.0$40.0$41.5$56.3$0$50$100$150$200$25020142015201620172018201920202021202220232024Source:PitchBook Geography:US As of September 30,2024The extent and pace of later-stage ventures recovery will depend on the resurgence of c

79、rossover investor participation.Crossover investors are essential for later-stage startups to continue fueling their growth while remaining private,though the number of unique crossover investors has dropped by over 30%since the ZIRP era.Crossover investors are long-term investors that can hold asse

80、ts well past public listings,unlike traditional venture funds,which has made them an important source of late-stage and venture-growth funding.However,venture investors overall have been reluctant or hard-pressed to allocate capital to mature startups given todays high valuations,which cut into the

81、total return profile of the investment,and because of the large size of investments required.Crossover investors pullback from the asset class has left fewer investors well suited and available to invest later in a companys lifecycle,leading many later-stage companies to delay raising additional cap

82、ital and extend their cash runways for as long as possible through cost-cutting measures.Deal participation declining Deals with alternative VC investor participation as a share of all VC deal count by investor type23.8%23.2%11.4%10.5%7.2%7.5%0.8%0.7%13.3%12.1%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%20142015201620172018

83、201920202021202220232024CVC investorPE investorAsset managerGovernment/SWFOther tourist investorSource:PitchBook Geography:US As of September 30,202416Q3 2024 US VC VALUATIONS REPORTSponsored byLIQUIDITYLiquidityExit returns continue to be mutedMedian VC step-up at exit by type$0$500$1,000$1,500$2,0

84、00$2,500$3,000$3,500$4,000$4,50020142015201620172018201920202021202220232024Top and bottom quartile rangeTop decileMedianBottom decileAverageSource:PitchBook Geography:US As of September 30,2024Few IPOs with varied performancePublic listing VC exit valuation($M)dispersion0.8x1.0 x1.2x1.4x1.6x1.8x2.0

85、 x2.2x20142015201620172018201920202021202220232024Public listingAcquisitionSource:PitchBook Geography:US As of September 30,2024IPOsTransitioning to public markets remained a challenge for companies in Q3,with only 14 public listings and a median exit valuation of$129.1 million.The quarters valuatio

86、n was particularly low,considering that the year-to-date annual median is$292.1 million.All venture-backed IPOs in Q3 originated from the healthcare sector,and none crossed the billion-dollar valuation threshold.The mixed post-IPO performance has not garnered much enthusiasm among startups waiting f

87、or a friendlier exit environment.As of this writing,half of these companies have a higher market cap than their IPO and only one-third are trading at a higher stock price than their debut.Cerebras filed for an IPO at the end of the quarter,sparking optimism across venture.The chipmaker is the first

88、AI startup to file since the AI investor hype began and will be the first major venture-backed tech public listing since Ibottas in April 2024.However,the company has run into some delays as it first needs clearance from the Committee on Foreign Investment in the US for potential national security c

89、oncerns.The companys investor and largest customer,which accounted for 83%of its 2023 revenue,is a Middle Eastern company with historic ties to China.Another potential 17Q3 2024 US VC VALUATIONS REPORTSponsored byLIQUIDITYMultiples have not rebounded yetVC-Backed IPO Index price/sales multiple2011-2

90、013 median7.74x2014-2016 median4.67x 2017-2019 median6.30 x2020-2021 median12.47x2022-YTD median5.20 x 0 x5x10 x15x20 x25x30 x20112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024Source:PitchBook Geography:US As of September 30,2024Acquisitions dominated by healthcareAcquisition VC exit valuation

91、($M)dispersion$0$200$400$600$800$1,00020142015201620172018201920202021202220232024Top and bottom quartile rangeTop decileMedianBottom decileAverageSource:PitchBook Geography:US As of September 30,2024hurdle will be public demand,because Cerebras hopes to reach a valuation between$7 billion and$8 bil

92、lion,nearly double its$4 billion pre-money valuation from its last round in 2021.Current secondary prices on Forge imply a$7.1 billion valuation,which is a positive signal of investor demand.4 However,the business is not yet profitable,so the high valuation,coupled with potential regulatory issues,m

93、ay raise concerns among public investors.Overall,the major challenge for VC IPOs continues to be high valuations.AI firms like Cerebras have been relatively insulated from ventures headwinds,but for other startups,the public is unlikely to pay the elevated prices that these private companies seek.Un

94、til startups are willing to compromise on their valuations,the IPO standstill will persist.M&AThe median M&A exit valuation has soared to decade highs.However,a deeper analysis reveals that M&A activity is much weaker than what this data captures and highlights the widening gap between top-performin

95、g and mediocrecompanies.4:“Cerebras Upcoming IPO:Computing Going Public Amidst AI Fever,”Forge Global,Jake Sefane,October 4,2024.18Q3 2024 US VC VALUATIONS REPORTSponsored byLIQUIDITYMore early-stage acquisitions as valuations remain highShare of VC round count by round series where next round is an

96、 exit via acquisition0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%20142015201620172018201920202021202220232024D+CBASeedPre-seedSource:PitchBook Geography:US As of September 30,2024The median acquisition valuation is$150 million year to date,and a handful of large deals pushed the annual average to$419.1 million

97、.Only two exits exceeded the billion-dollar threshold in Q3,and both were for biotechnology companies.In fact,the top five acquisitions in exit size all came from healthcare.This sector concentration is yet another indicator that overall venture M&A activity has not returned.Outsized deals explain t

98、he wide gap between the median and average,but smaller exits are not being captured.Over 85%of 2024 acquisitions thus far have had small and therefore undisclosed deal sizes,biasing the median figure higher.High valuations have made later-stage acquisitions prohibitively expensive,so early-stage sta

99、rtups with comparatively less elevated company prices are better suited,with 82.5%of acquisitions YTD occurring after a seed to Series B round.This trend toward smaller deals brings into question how much investors are realizing from M&A,as their returns may not be enough to break even.Rather,invest

100、ors are using these exits to cut their losses and recoup some liquidity in this parched market.Top startups that continue to garner investor interest are opting to stay private,leaving mediocre companies as prime contenders for M&A,especially if they are struggling to raise additional capital to kee

101、p operations running.The prevalence of smaller deals will likely persist for at least the next few quarters as more startups approach the end of their cash runway and look for exit opportunities.SecondariesSecondaries provide the best of both worlds.Companies can remain private for longer while simu

102、ltaneously generating realized returns for investors despite limited IPOs and M&A.More than half of Series D and later startups were founded over 9.7 years ago,one year longer than the median age of 8.7 years in 2021 when VC activity was at its peak.Therefore,these companies early adopters have been

103、 waiting for a decade to realize returns,and this timeline is expected to continue expanding until exit activity rebounds,leaving these long-time investors restless to get their money back.Secondaries are still trading at a discount but are steadily progressing closer to parity,indicating increased

104、demand among purchasers.The median discount in Q3 was 15%,significantly lower than the 50%when discounts bottomed in March 2023.The secondary market provides pricing transparency outside of official rounds,so stronger companies benefit more from these transactions because proven investor demand help

105、s justify high valuations.Overall,we expect secondaries to continue their growth,as both investors and companies can benefit from their increased adoption.19Q3 2024 US VC VALUATIONS REPORTSponsored byLIQUIDITYStartups are staying private for longerMedian time(years)from founding by series1.21.22.72.

106、76.44.94.56.58.27.710.19.702468101220142015201620172018201920202021202220232024Pre-seedSeedSeries ASeries BSeries CSeries D+Source:PitchBook Geography:US As of September 30,2024Secondary discounts are approaching parityMedian and average discount to last VC round-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%Ja

107、n2022MarMayJulSepNovJan2023MarMayJulSepNovJan2024MarMayJulSepAverage premium/discountMedian premium/discountSource:Zanbato Geography:Global As of September 30,2024Additional researchCOPYRIGHT 2024 by PitchBook Data,Inc.All rights reserved.No part of this publication may be reproduced in any form or

108、by any meansgraphic,electronic,or mechanical,including photocopying,recording,taping,and information storage and retrieval systemswithout the express written permission of PitchBook Data,Inc.Contents are based on information from sources believed to be reliable,but accuracy and completeness cannot b

109、e guaranteed.Nothing herein should be construed as any past,current or future recommendation to buy or sell any security or an offer to sell,or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.This material does not purport to contain all of the information that a prospective investor may wish to cons

110、ider and is not to be relied upon as such or used in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment.Private marketsQ3 2024 PitchBook-NVCA Venture Monitor Download the report hereQ4 2024 Allocator Solutions:PitchBooks Expanded Suite of Private Capital Return BarometersDownload the report hereQ3 2024 AI&ML Public Comp Sheet and Valuation GuideDownload the report hereQ3 2024 European Venture Report Download the report hereQ4 2023 PitchBook Benchmarks:VCDownload the report here2024 Greater China Private Capital BreakdownDownload the report hereMore research available at