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1、Investment Opportunities in Energy Transition 2|OC&C Strategy Consultants 2023We have deep,global experience in strategy and diligence work across the value chain energy transition and renewable energy sourcesOC&C Energy Transition ExpertiseSustainability in Infrastructure and ConstructionRenewable

2、Energy Generation and Energy TransitionHydrocarbon Energy Production,Energy Networks and ServicesOC&C Project ExperienceSelect Experience Not ExhaustiveConfidential Heat Pump ManufacturerConfidential Solar panel WholesalerConfidential solar panel installation Confidential US Transformer as a Service

3、 Business Confidential US Transformer Repair Services2Understanding Opportunities in Energy Transition_August 2023_teaser materials3|OC&C Strategy Consultants 2023ContentsOverview of Energy Transition Investment LandscapeKey Considerations for Potential InvestorsAreas of Investment Opportunity3Under

4、standing Opportunities in Energy Transition_August 2023_teaser materials4|OC&C Strategy Consultants 2023The energy transition has wide-spread implications from generation to consumption,with many potential pockets of investment opportunityFramework for Energy Transition MarketsSource:OC&C analysisWi

5、ndSolarHydroNuclearGeothermalTransmission&DistributionBattery StorageGrid-scale Storage(mainly Pumped-storage Hydropower)GenerationTransmission&StorageConsumptionOther Storage (e.g.mechanical,thermal)IndustryTransportRoad(EVs)BioenergyWaste-to-energyAviationShippingOtherBuildings(Resi./Commercial)In

6、sulationHeat PumpsEfficient SystemsDistrict HeatingMetalsChemicalsOther(e.g.food,paper etc)Hydrogen StorageOverview of Energy Transition Investment LandscapeTraditional Hydrocarbon Generation4Understanding Opportunities in Energy Transition_August 2023_teaser materials5|OC&C Strategy Consultants 202

7、3Investment in energy transition has been increasing over the last 5 years;PE investors are a significant and growing share of deal activity in the spaceOverall investment trends Investment is increasing:Global investment in the energy transition has increased rapidly,nearly doubling from 2019 to 20

8、22,largely due to technological advances and increased policy support Investment targets are changing:Total investment in generation has exceeded investment in consumption historically.However,investment in consumption surpassed generation for the first time in 2022 due to outpacing generation inves

9、tment growth historically(31%vs 10%CAGR 16-22)Investment in transmission&storage has remained relatively unchanged in net but storage grew 43%YoY 15-22 New tailwinds are emerging:Growth in transmission&distribution historically lagged other areas(c1%CAGR 15-22),however changes in generation and cons

10、umption patterns,as well as generally ageing infrastructure,have created an urgent need for grid modernisationOverall deal trends The number of deals in energy-transition relevant sectors increased by 116%from 2019 to 2022 in Europe and USA combined Largely driven by the increasing#of deals within c

11、ompanies in the generation stage(e.g.renewable energy technology developers and producers)Deal value has increased prior to 2022(up+151%since 2019),but has since decreased significantly due to deterioration in macro-economic conditions(this was also reflected to a lesser extent in#deals)PE&VC trends

12、 PE and VC firms make up an increasing share of the overall energy-related deals in Europe and the USA,gaining 0.8%pts pa from 2019-2022 Europe and US-based PE houses have focused investments on energy generation,resulting in an increasing#of deals in this area by 39%(EU)and 66%(US)YoY from 2019-202

13、2Source:OC&C analysisInvestment Activity&Trends SummaryOverview of Energy Transition Investment Landscape5Understanding Opportunities in Energy Transition_August 2023_teaser materials6|OC&C Strategy Consultants 2023There will be winners and losers among those who invest;its critical to consider oppo

14、rtunities carefully and pay close attention in 5 areas 132 Governments use a combination of financial incentives,target setting,and regulation to drive change Policy is a major determinant of market outlook in most Energy Transition markets;very few markets take off in the absence of robust policy s

15、upport even where other geographic or economic factors are in their favour Individual geographies vary significantly in their net zero maturity,and in the relative attractiveness of a specific asset type(based on a number of factors)It will be valuable to identify and invest behind leading geographi

16、c markets,there is often significant first mover advantage,it is critical to understand where the global winners will originate Target capacity and spend certainty are different;understanding the factors that can create a gap between theoretical and real market opportunity are critical Investors mus

17、t understand(among other things),policy robustness,supply chain maturity,visible project pipeline,technological certainty and consumer engagement 4 Changes in energy transition will transform whole ecosystems,they fundamentally alter the way consumers and businesses operate creating new challenges a

18、nd opportunities for established business models Each geography behaves very differentlyTarget capacity and potential investment do not always translate to real market opportunity Policy is critical and can make or break returns on investment The effects will be wide reaching and change who wins and

19、 how Supply Constraints are a major factor influencing the pace of market expansion in some asset types,but can present an opportunity for business models that provide temporary or long term relief to challenges supply chains 5Current supply constraints can provide challenges but also opportunity Ke

20、y Considerations for InvestmentKey Themes in Energy Transition6Understanding Opportunities in Energy Transition_August 2023_teaser materials7|OC&C Strategy Consultants 2023Variations in policy&market tailwinds between geographies can have a significant impact on market outlook by asset type1Geograph

21、ical DifferencesNuclearWindSolarGrid-scale storageDistrict HeatingNuclearWindSolarGrid-scale storageDistrict HeatingNuclearWindDistrict HeatingSolarGrid-scale storagePolicyTailwindsStrongWeakWeakMarket TailwindsStrongUSEUUKMarket and policy tailwinds are generally correlated,with robust regulation a

22、nd funding and/or incentive schemes supporting investmentPolicy&Market Tailwinds by Geography&Asset Type7Understanding Opportunities in Energy Transition_August 2023_teaser materials8|OC&C Strategy Consultants 2023US Solar:In the US policy is a much more significant determining factor in domestic PV

23、P penetration than peak sun hours(which impact generation)0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%10%11%12%13%14%15%16%3.03.54.04.55.05.56.06.57.0Solar Penetration,2022(%)NMAZNVWYKSFLOKCAUTSDSCNDKYMTTXIDLACONEGAMONCARNHIAMNMEMDTNMSWIALDERIINNJOHAverage Peak Sun HoursVAORMIAKPAVTMANYWVWAILCTDomestic PVP Penetration and

24、Average Peak Sun Hours by StateSource:EnergySage,SEIA,Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory,Desk Research,OC&C analysis2Policy MattersLow sun but strong policy supportHigh sun but limited policy support8Understanding Opportunities in Energy Transition_August 2023_teaser materials9|OC&C Strategy Cons

25、ultants 2023Spend certainty is the degree to which target capacity is able or likely to be fulfilled in the given timeframeThere are multiple factors that influence the certainty of spend by asset type and therefore the delta between target capacity and tangible pipeline3Spend CertaintySource:FES Ju

26、ly 2023,REPD,British Hydro Association,OC&C analysisCurrent CapacityCommitted PipelineDelta to TargetTarget CapacitySpend UncertaintySpend certainty by asset type is influenced by several factorsConsumer EngagementPolicy RobustnessSupply Chain Maturity Visible Project PipelineTechnological Certainty

27、 Is there sufficient regulation,funding&incentive in place to support investment?Does the existing supply infrastructure have sufficient bandwidth to deliver at the required pace?(eg material&labour availability)To what extent is the target capacity covered by the pipeline of committed projects with

28、 known financial backers and a clear plan for deployment of capital Is there technological consensus in the market?Or could risks around the lack of known winning technology hinder investment?To what extent does reaching target capacity rely on consumer behavioural change?(eg adoption of EV,uptake o

29、f heat pumps)Are there clear economic(or other)reasons for consumers to change behaviour/adopt solutions?9Understanding Opportunities in Energy Transition_August 2023_teaser materials10|OC&C Strategy Consultants 2023Energy transition will cause a total transformation of some ecosystems,such as the i

30、mpact of EV rollout on the traditional forecourt model4Eco System TransformationThere is also a material retail opportunity;EV drivers spend 2-3x more on retail than ICE driversForecourts that invest in EV and support a dual-fuel model will be better placed;EV provides 2x more margin per visit EV re

31、charging at fast-chargers takes longer than refuelling an ICE car As a result EV customers are more likely to convert into retail Longer dwelling time also drives them to spend more(e.g.lunch meal instead of only a coffee)Impact of EV on the Forecourt Model Estimated gross margin by location%Estimat

32、ed refuelling cost and margin by location(ex VAT)Factor vs absolute fuel margin15%26%55%7%On StreetDestinationOn RoutePetrol101196321035CostsMargin13131968x0.4x0.7x2.2EVICE%Customers who transact into non-Fuel60%40%Average food retail transaction value1 212-147-8Average Per Visit Food Retail Spend7-

33、82-3Implied Gross Profit Uplift per Visit32-31Source:OC&C EV Survey Jan 22,OC&C Fuel Survey Jan 22,Expert Interviews,Desk Research,OC&C analysis1.Calculated using ACS 3rd party estimate on average transaction value(excl fuel)in 2019,rolled forward with inflation.EV estimated based on the survey resu

34、lts for%more spend on EV non-fuel purchases than fuel purchases2.Survey question used:Roughly how much did you spend on each of these things?,Only including Snacks,Food to eat that day at home,Groceries,Hot food or drinks on premise or to take away ICE N=433,EV N=143;Excludes anyone who stated they

35、spend 50 on any one or more of these categories3.Assumes average non-fuel transaction margin of 30%10Understanding Opportunities in Energy Transition_August 2023_teaser materials11|OC&C Strategy Consultants 2023 The supply chain is fragmented and carries geopolitical risk Growing demand for Li-ion b

36、atteries(across multiple use cases)main result in constraints in raw material supplies Li-ion battery technology must continue to evolve to meet this challengeBattery Storage:Future battery storage deployment is highly dependent on the raw material supply chain 5Supply ConstraintsSource:McKinsey,Wor

37、ld Materials Forum,BloombergNEF,Oxford Institute For Energy Studies,The Faraday Institution,Physics World,ARUP Future Proof Now Report 2023,Climate Watch the World Research Institute 2020,UK Heat Pump Association,OC&C analysis7%11%9%73%20226%13%13%68%20256%13%19%62%2030Rest of AsiaEuropeN.AmericaChi

38、na1,850 GWh5,400 GWh6,500 GWhLithium-Ion Battery Cell Capacity(GWh),2022-2030 01,0002,0003,0004,0002020202220242026202820302032DemandSupplyBattery Supply Chain Challenges 800k additional heat pump installers:The ramp-up of installation capacity is supported by three drivers:Training of heat pump ins

39、tallers is quick,simple and abundant c.250k installers of fossil fuel heating systems can easily be retrained to install heat pumps Heat pumps installation yields attractive rates compared to other jobs in the industry Manufacturing capacity has been constrained due to semiconductor shortage,but thi

40、s is expected to resolve 1 billion sq ft of commercial space in the UK will need upgrading to a B+EPC rating by 2030 under new government regulation,with an estimated 190-410bn decarbonisation investment required However,based on London benchmarks,at the current rate the market will only deliver an

41、estimated 14-18%of required building upgrades by 2030Lithium Carbonate Equivalent(Kilotonnes)2021-31Future battery storage deployment is dependent on raw material supply chain Limitations in the number of installers and parts shortages could limit the penetration of heat pumps in the UKOnly 14-18%of

42、 buildings can be covered for commercial retrofit by 2030 with current supplyNumber of Required Heat Pump Installers(#k)2021 capacity600-800Additional capacity2030E capacity requiredc.200800 1,000200164Required Upgrade by 203014-18%Current Market CapacitySupply Defecit25-401.Based on average upgrade

43、 cost per square foot from example projects(190-410/sq ft)to upgrade the c1bn sq ft of buildings with EPC rating below B2.Estimated based on 4-5m sq ft delivered in London per year versus total 200m sq ft of space requiring upgrade by 2030(as of 2023)Required London Commercial Upgrade vs Supply(m Sq

44、 ft)11Understanding Opportunities in Energy Transition_August 2023_teaser materials12|OC&C Strategy Consultants 2023There are many opportunities beyond just investment in infrastructure assets themselves,with opportunities up and down the value chainPotential Business Models Across the Asset Life Cy

45、cleNot Exhaustive FeasibilityDesignProcurementConstructionOperating&MaintenanceDe-commissioningProject managementPlanning,Permitting&FinancingTechnical Services,Construction&MaintenanceOther Supporting ServicesProfessional ServicesLand prospectingLand acquisitionSurveyingResource AnalysisSite studie

46、sEquipment/materials procurementPreliminary design&engineeringPPA&Financing permitsFull site design&engineeringCivil ConstructionSite inspection&verificationControl systems engineeringIn service operationsRisk AssessmentTesting,Inspection&CertificationTraining&UpskillingData analysis&ReportingFinanc

47、ial ModellingPublic planning consultingStakeholder mgmt.(eg lobbying)Feasibility planningPublic consultation&PRMaintenance&RepairCarbon offsettingAsset ManagementR&M PlanningMEPFMArchitectureMonitoring-IOTRange of Investment OpportunitiesDemolition and Decommissioning Civil Engineering12Understandin

48、g Opportunities in Energy Transition_August 2023_teaser materials13|OC&C Strategy Consultants 2023Within the Solar value chain,there are multiple investable areas,although the greatest opportunity likely sits in manufacture and maintenanceManufactureDistributionPurchase&InstallationMaintenanceEnd-of

49、-lifeSolar LifecycleResidential InstallersSell and install new solar panels and products;retrofit existing solar systemsPV-onlyPV with storageSolar Thermal(heating water)Panel Health Optimisation SoftwareWithin panels internal systemsExternal tool used by maintenance/servicersSecond HandPanel Market

50、Very nascent:limited by lack of supply(lack of incentive to remove solar installations from buildings)End-of LifePanel/Battery RecyclingDisposalWholesalerResidentialCommercialPanel OEMsSolar PanelsAccessoriesSample Investment Opportunities Across Solar Value Chain Source:Desk Research,OC&C analysisC

51、omponentManufacturersPanel parts MeteringDemand Management SoftwareAssist distribution network management by allocating and predicting where solar demand will be highMaintenance ProgrammesWarranties&insuranceMaintenance and repairsTestingSoftware testingMaterials/component testingInteresting area fo

52、r investmentLess interesting area for investmentOperatorsGenerationFarmsOwners of solar farms,investing in the infrastructure and selling the energyTraditional land-based solar farmsOcean solar farms(floatovoltaics)EmergingSolutions OEMsSolar windowsSolar roadsSolar paintCommercial InstallersLand-ba

53、sedFloating/ocean-basedBattery OEMsInstaller SoftwareLead conversion and proposal customizationData insightsGiven the residential installers space is very fragmented,the investment opportunity is less attractive in Europe and more attractive in US,where there has been greater sign of successful cons

54、olidation and scale effectsProductsTechnologyServicesRange of Investment Opportunities14Understanding Opportunities in Energy Transition_August 2023_teaser materials14|OC&C Strategy Consultants 2023Within the commercial retrofit value chain there are a range of potential investment opportunities in

55、related services,software&installationAdvisory/Business DevelopmentFinancing&DesignInstallation&MaintenanceInteresting area for investmentLess interesting area for investmentProductsTechnologyServicesMaintenance ProgrammesWarranties&insuranceMaintenance and repairsEnergy Management&SurveyingBuilding

56、 information systemsFacilities management softwareIdentification of ongoing energy reduction opportunitiesEnergy Efficiency SolutionsEg HVAC systems,LED lighting,insulation manufacturersConsumption Tracking SoftwareMeasure&report sustainability metricsSolution Design SoftwareOptimise power usage eff

57、ectivenessIdentification of energy&utilities inefficienciesCost auditing and assuranceCost estimationCommercial InstallersProgramme managementOnsite renewable installationSample Investment Opportunities Across Commercial Retrofit Value Chain Architecture&engineering servicesRe-engineering of buildin

58、gs Carbon AnalyticsModelling building carbon footprintsCarbon accounting toolsCompliance with industry standardsMonitoring&Performance VerificationCommercial Mgmt&Advisory ServicesEstablishing project viabilityFeasibility assessmentCommercial Renewable GenerationEg onsite solar or power storage facilitiesSustainable Design ConsultancyProject financingSource:Desk Research,OC&C analysisRange of Investment Opportunities16Understanding Opportunities in Energy Transition_August 2023_teaser materials