《PitchBook：2024新興航天業概覽簡報：商業航天發射戰略分析（英文版）（10頁）.pdf》由會員分享，可在線閱讀，更多相關《PitchBook：2024新興航天業概覽簡報：商業航天發射戰略分析（英文版）（10頁）.pdf（10頁珍藏版）》請在三個皮匠報告上搜索。

1、1Ali Javaheri Associate Analyst,Emerging TOriginally published November 5,EMERGING SPACE BRIEFCommercial Space LaunchTrending companiesOverviewCommercial space launch includes companies focused on launching satellite payloads,offering launch services,and building essential launch infrastructure.The

2、rise in satellite launch startups is largely driven by expanding satellite constellations,which support applications such as broadening internet access,enhancing weather monitoring,and expanding geospatial intelligence.While national space agencies have traditionally dominated satellite launches,the

3、se startups aim to attract customers by providing greater flexibility in launch scheduling,shorter lead times,and cost savings.BackgroundIn the early decades of the Space Age(1950s-2000s),space technology development was primarily driven by government agencies in the US and Soviet Union.These effort

4、s were supported by affiliated organizations in the USSR and contracted companies in the US,with rocket designs and missions explicitly dedicated to government objectives.In 1975,the European Space Agency(ESA)was founded,and followed a similar approach,while countries such as China and India also be

5、gan funding the indigenous development of their own national designs.Commercial satellite launches emerged in the 1970s and 1980s,representing the primary non-government application of space technology,while national launch providers continued to operate at high cost structures initially geared towa

6、rd military needs.The landscape began to change significantly in the 2000s.As commercial competition increased,particularly in the US,the federal government moved away from a monopoly arrangement with United Launch Alliance(ULA)for military launches.By 2015,the US military launch market experienced

7、multi-provider competition,leading to substantial cost pressures and increased launch frequency.SpaceXs reusable rocket technology,introduced during this period,reshaped the market with its lower-cost,higher-frequency launch capabilities,particularly within the heavy launch class,which includes lift

8、ing payloads of more than 20,000 kg to low Earth orbit(LEO).Heavy launches,represented in the graph below,have seen a marked decline in costs over time,driven primarily by SpaceXs introduction of the Falcon Heavy in 2018,which achieved a record-low cost of$1,500 per kilogram.SpaceXs next-generation

9、Starship vehicle aims to reduce these costs even further,targeting launch costs below$100 per kilogram to LEO.If achieved,this would represent a revolutionary decrease that could transform the economics of space access.This evolving competitive environment has created opportunities for lower-cost an

10、d higher-volume launches,attracting significant interest from both commercial and governmental clients globally.The impact of reusable launch technology and new entrants into the market has reshaped cost structures,with implications for pricing strategies and competition in both the US and internati

11、onal markets.Commercial space launch VC deal activity$665.5$725.1$1,269.9$3,424.4$3,544.4$2,656.8$2,893.7$763.1274050536556423820172018201920202021202220232024Deal value($M)Deal countSource:PitchBook Geography:GlobalAs of November 1,2024For access to more of this data and PitchBooks Emerging Spaces

12、tool,access a free trial link here.2Emerging Space Brief:Commercial Space LaunchTechnologies and processes The commercial space launch industry has witnessed substantial technological diversification,as companies seek to innovate across various aspects of rocketry to address market demand for more f

13、requent,cost-effective,and flexible launch services.This section explores key approaches in launch technology and the startups leading in these areas,with a particular focus on cadence(launch frequency)and time-to-launch,both of which are critical metrics for evaluating performance and scalability i

14、n this sector.In a highly competitive market,cadence(number of launches per year)and time-to-launch(lead time from scheduling to launch)are essential metrics for assessing a startups viability and scalability.Companies that achieve higher cadence and shorter time-to-launch are better positioned to s

15、erve commercial clients needing rapid deployment for satellite constellations,as well as government clients with urgent defense or scientific missions.For instance,Rocket Lab has maintained an industry-leading launch cadence in the small launch vehicle segment,making it an attractive choice for clie

16、nts needing flexible,frequent launch windows.Startups in this space often highlight their cadence goals and time-to-launch metrics as indicators of operational efficiency and client responsiveness,crucial factors for venture capitalists evaluating growth potential and operational scalability in the

17、commercial space launch industry.Reusable launch vehicles:Reusable rockets have transformed the economics of space launch by enabling multiple uses of core rocket components,particularly the first stage,significantly reducing costs per launch.SpaceX pioneered this approach with the Falcon 9 and Falc

18、on Heavy,using booster recovery technology to achieve lower cost per kilogram and faster turnaround times.Startups such as Rocket Lab are following suit with reusable designs for its Electron rocket,while Relativity Space is developing the partially 3D-printed,reusable Terran R,designed for rapid ma

19、nufacturing and deployment.SpinLaunch is innovating further with a novel approach,creating a catapult-like launch system,or“space gun,”which aims to propel payloads into orbit without conventional rockets,potentially offering even greater reductions in cost and resource use.Together,these companies

20、are enhancing launch cadence and meeting the time-sensitive demands of satellite constellations,defense,and scientific missions.Advanced propulsion systems for launch vehicles:Propulsion technology is key to improving the efficiency and capabilities of launch vehicles.Several companies are developin

21、g innovative rocket propulsion systems:Relativity Space is working on its Aeon engines using methane/liquid oxygen propellants and 3D printing technology,while Rocket Lab has developed the Rutherford enginean electric pump-fed engine for its Electron rocket.SpinLaunch is exploring a radically differ

22、ent approach using kinetic launch technology for initial acceleration before rocket ignition.On the research front,Stoke Space is developing reusable rocket engines with novel cooling systems for second stages.3Emerging Space Brief:Commercial Space LaunchAdditive manufacturing and modular rocket des

23、ign:Additive manufacturing,or 3D printing,has become a strategic enabler for space startups aiming to streamline production and reduce costs.Relativity Space leverages 3D printing extensively to produce nearly all rocket components in-house,minimizing lead time and production costs.Similarly,Ursa Ma

24、jor specializes in 3D-printed rocket engines,which support faster production cycles,scalability,and the ability to iterate designs rapidly.This technology reduces both time-to-launch and launch costs,allowing companies to maintain a higher cadence with reduced reliance on supply chains for complex p

25、arts.High-cadence launch platforms and spaceports:Several startups are working on launch platforms designed for high-frequency missions,aiming to reduce ground preparation time and increase launch readiness.Firefly Aerospace,for instance,operates the Alpha rocket for flexible,mid-sized launches with

26、 a focus on short lead times between launch opportunities.Additionally,new spaceports such as those developed by Orbex in the UK are being established to support increased cadence for small and medium launch vehicles.ApplicationsThe commercial space launch industry serves a broad spectrum of applica

27、tions,driven by increased demand for satellite deployment,scientific research,and new sectors such as space tourism.With advancements in launch technology and increased availability of frequent,cost-effective launches,commercial clients now have greater flexibility to deploy and maintain their asset

28、s in space.The following are primary applications of commercial space launch services and key clients who represent significant demand in each area:Satellite deployment for telecommunications and Earth observation:The majority of commercial launches support the deployment of satellite constellations

29、 for telecommunications,internet connectivity,and Earth observation.Companies such as SpaceX,Rocket Lab,and Astra provide flexible and frequent launches to support mega-constellations such as Starlink(SpaceX)and OneWeb.In Earth observation,companies such as Planet Labs,Maxar Technologies,and ICEYE d

30、eploy satellites to gather high-resolution imagery for applications including environmental monitoring,disaster response,and agricultural assessment.Internet connectivity and broadband expansion:The growing demand for global broadband coverage has driven the expansion of satellite internet services

31、to underserved and remote areas.High-profile clients in this sector include Amazon with its Project Kuiper and SpaceX,which deploys its Starlink satellites to provide high-speed internet across diverse geographies.This segment is particularly suited to companies offering high-cadence,low-cost launch

32、 services,as satellite constellations require regular replenishment and expansion to maintain coverage.Government and defense missions:Government contracts remain a cornerstone of the space launch industry,with high demand for dedicated launches that ensure security and mission-critical capabilities

33、.The US Department of Defense,NASA,and similar agencies globally have established partnerships with launch providers such as United Launch Alliance(ULA),SpaceX,and Rocket Lab to deploy payloads 4Emerging Space Brief:Commercial Space Launchfor intelligence,surveillance,reconnaissance(ISR),and scienti

34、fic research.For example,the US Space Force has increasingly partnered with SpaceX for rapid deployment and flexibility in military satellite placement.Scientific and research missions:Space launch services play an essential role in supporting scientific research,from interplanetary missions to micr

35、ogravity experiments in low-Earth orbit.NASA and international space agencies such as ESA and JAXA(Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency)use commercial launches for planetary exploration and satellite deployment in support of scientific research.Additionally,private research organizations and universit

36、ies partner with companies such as Rocket Lab for smaller payloads,as the high cadence and lower cost of small launch vehicles make them ideal for research-focused missions.Space tourism and payload return:The emerging space tourism market and suborbital flight services have gained traction with com

37、panies such as Blue Origin and Virgin Galactic,which focus on providing suborbital experiences to private individuals.SpaceX has entered this market with Inspiration4 and future private crewed missions,which also provide opportunities for payload return missions,enabling research and commercial cust

38、omers to retrieve materials and equipment.This application represents a growing frontier within the commercial space sector,as demand increases for human spaceflight experiences and the safe return of scientific payloads.On-demand launch and responsive space missions:Rapid,on-demand access to space

39、is increasingly critical for national security and commercial applications requiring quick deployment and flexibility.Companies such as Astra and Rocket Lab target this need with small,agile rockets that can be scheduled on short notice.Such responsive capabilities appeal to clients seeking to repla

40、ce failed satellites or rapidly deploy new technology in orbit,especially in scenarios requiring adaptability and fast response times.Top clients for space launch services Telecommunications:SpaceX(Starlink),Amazon(Project Kuiper),OneWeb Earth observation:Planet Labs,Maxar Technologies,ICEYE Governm

41、ent and defense:US Department of Defense,NASA,European Space Agency,US Space Force Scientific research:Various international space agencies(NASA,ESA,JAXA),research institutions,and private labs Space tourism:Blue Origin,Virgin Galactic,and private missions with SpaceXWith these varied applications a

42、nd a wide range of clients,the commercial space launch market continues to grow,driven by the need for more frequent,reliable,and cost-effective access to space.5Emerging Space Brief:Commercial Space LaunchLimitationsCommercial space launch startups face several significant limitations and challenge

43、s that impact their scalability,profitability,and ability to compete in the global market.These include regulatory hurdles,high capital requirements,technological complexities,and market competition.Regulatory and licensing challenges:Launching a rocket requires regulatory approval,with licensing pr

44、ocesses often differing from country to country.In the US,for instance,startups need approval from the Federal Aviation Administration(FAA),which can delay timelines and add to costs.Export control regulations,such as ITAR(International Traffic in Arms Regulations),limit certain technologies from be

45、ing shared or sold internationally,impacting companies abilities to partner globally.For small startups,navigating this regulatory landscape without established government relationships can slow development and reduce flexibility in scaling operations abroad.High capital requirements and cash burn r

46、ate:The space launch industry is notoriously capital-intensive,with extensive R&D costs,expensive infrastructure requirements,and the need to rapidly iterate on vehicle designs.Building and testing rockets,especially reusable ones,involves large upfront investments and ongoing operational costs.Star

47、tups in this space often face high burn rates and may require continuous rounds of funding to remain operational.Access to funding can be unpredictable,especially during economic downturns,and the high failure rate of rocket launches makes it difficult for startups to secure long-term investor confi

48、dence.Technical risk and reliability concerns:Launching rockets is a complex and high-risk endeavor.Failures during testing or live launches can have severe financial and reputational impacts,with repercussions for client trust and insurance costs.Even established companies occasionally face technic

49、al setbacks,but for startups,these risks are particularly damaging.Reliability is key in the space launch industry,as clients need assurance that their payloads will reach orbit without incident.For startups,achieving the high reliability standards required for sensitive payloads,such as national se

50、curity satellites,is a significant technical and operational challenge.Supply chain constraints:Manufacturing a launch vehicle involves sourcing specialized components and materials,which can be challenging for new entrants without established supply chains.Recent global supply chain disruptions hav

51、e affected the availability of critical parts,often sourced from a limited number of suppliers.This dependence on complex,often global supply chains can increase lead times,delay testing,and drive up costs for startups that lack the volume and purchasing power of larger companies.Market competition

52、and price pressure:The commercial space launch market has become increasingly competitive,with established players such as SpaceX,Rocket Lab,and Blue Origin setting high standards for cost-effectiveness and reliability.Price competition is intense,particularly for small and medium launches,and large

53、 incumbents are often able to undercut new entrants.SpaceXs reusability has driven down costs significantly,creating pressure on newer companies to match or exceed those standards.This competition can make it difficult for startups to build a strong 6Emerging Space Brief:Commercial Space Launchcusto

54、mer base and differentiate themselves,especially if they cannot offer a clear cost or technology advantage.Environmental and sustainability concerns:As launch frequency increases,environmental impact is becoming a concern.Rocket launches release substantial CO2 emissions and can affect the atmospher

55、ic layers,contributing to climate change.Also,the rapid growth in launches increases the risk of orbital debris,which can endanger active satellites and space stations.Startups may face rising pressure to develop environmentally friendly propulsion systems,potentially increasing R&D costs and compli

56、cating the development process.Challenges in scaling launch cadence:Many startups aim to increase launch frequency(cadence)to meet the demands of satellite constellations and on-demand missions.However,scaling operations to achieve high launch cadence is challenging and requires extensive infrastruc

57、ture,increased staffing,and reliable supply chains.The logistics of running frequent launches also introduce complexities in scheduling,ground operations,and rocket recovery.Startups that lack established infrastructure and operational expertise can struggle to meet high-frequency demands,impacting

58、their competitiveness in the commercial market.Recent deal activity and market outlookThe commercial space launch sector has seen dynamic shifts in investment patterns and deal activity,driven by increased demand for satellite deployments and the competitive pursuit of more frequent and cost-effecti

59、ve launches.Notable funding rounds in recent years reflect investor interest in supporting startups working on reusable rockets,low-cost small launch vehicles,and advanced propulsion systems.Companies such as Relativity Space and Rocket Lab have attracted significant capital,underscoring the sustain

60、ed demand for innovations that can increase launch cadence and reduce time-to-launch.However,public market interest in space launch companies has faced challenges,with several high-profile SPAC mergers,such as Astra,failing to meet revenue targets and returning to private ownership.This trend has le

61、d to caution around SPACs,with investors increasingly scrutinizing long-term profitability and scalability in the space launch sector.Competition in the market remains intense,with SpaceX holding a dominant position due to its high-cadence reusable rocket technology,enabling a large share of global

62、commercial and government satellite launches.SpaceXs market advantage has been bolstered by its own satellite constellation,Starlink,which drives significant launch revenue.China has emerged as another major player,dramatically increasing its annual launch rate to support both government missions an

63、d commercial ventures such as the Guowang satellite constellation.The countrys state-owned enterprises have demonstrated high reliability and growing launch frequencies,although they primarily serve domestic customers.Yet,as global demand for satellite deployment grows,other companies are positionin

64、g themselves to capture market share.Government initiatives in countries such as the UK,Japan,and India are supporting the establishment of new spaceports,which can facilitate increased launch frequency and drive regional competition.Companies such as Rocket Lab and emerging startups may increasingl

65、y specialize in niche use casessuch as rapid-response or small payload launchesto carve out segments of the market.7Emerging Space Brief:Commercial Space LaunchLooking forward,industry leaders anticipate both consolidation and specialization within the space launch sector.Intense competition,high ca

66、pital requirements,and the ongoing need for technological advancements are likely to lead to mergers,acquisitions,and strategic partnerships as companies seek scale and operational efficiencies.In addition,the expected proliferation of satellite constellations for telecommunications,Earth observatio

67、n,and IoT applications will continue to fuel demand for launch services.While some companies are likely to dominate in general-purpose launches,others may differentiate by focusing on specialized services,such as on-demand,micro-launch vehicles or rapid launch capabilities,which will cater to time-s

68、ensitive commercial and defense needs.While current market conditions suggest possible oversupply risks,growing demand across various geographies and sectors could balance this by driving launch frequency and reducing operational delays.Overall,though SpaceX currently has a significant market lead,t

69、he growth in demand and development of international launch capabilities point to a more diversified competitive landscape,with multiple providers catering to both global and specialized regional needs.8Emerging Space Brief:Commercial Space LaunchQuantitative perspective144companies65deals(TTM)35.42

70、%YoY$6.7Mmedian deal size(TTM)32.46%YoY$510.0Mmedian post-money valuation(TTM)159.35%YoY$5.4Bcapital invested(TTM)130.29%YoY621deals1,168investors$31.8Bcapital investedAs of November 1,2024Top VC-backed commercial Space Launch companies by total raised Source:PitchBook Geography:Global As of Novembe

71、r 1,2024CompanyTotal raised($M)Last financing size($M)Last financing dateLast financing deal typeHQ locationYear foundedSpaceX$9,449.9N/AN/ASecondary Transaction-privateHawthorne,US2002Relativity Space$2,383.5N/AN/APE growth/expansionLong Beach,US2015Rocket Lab USA$1,224.3$355.0February 6,2024PIPELo

72、ng Beach,US2006Sierra Nevada$1,000.0$250.0January 29,2021Debt-generalSparks,US1963Blue Origin$500.0$35.0July 31,2023GrantKirkland,US2000Firefly Aerospace$483.3N/AMay 24,2024Merger/acquisitionCedar Park,US2013ABL$481.3$20.0May 1,2024General corporate purposeEl Segundo,US2017Momentus$413.2$2.8Septembe

73、r 16,2024PIPESan Jose,US2017OrienSpace$308.0$84.2January 24,2024Early-stage VCYantai,China2020Ursa Major$274.1$12.5September 17,2024GrantBerthoud,US20159Emerging Space Brief:Commercial Space LaunchTop commercial space launch companies by active patent countSource:PitchBook Geography:Global As of Nov

74、ember 1,2024CompanyActive patent documentsTotal raised($M)HQ locationYear foundedArianeGroup2,543$206.4Les Mureaux,France2014Blue Origin161$500.0Kirkland,US2000SpaceX148$9,449.9Hawthorne,US2002Sierra Nevada95$1,000.0Sparks,US1963United Launch Alliance57N/ACentennial,US2005Relativity Space40$2,383.5L

75、ong Beach,US2015Orion Space Solutions26N/ALouisville,US2005TransAstra26$8.5Los Angeles,US2015Vector Launch25$94.0Huntington Beach,US2016Rocket Lab USA21$1,224.3Long Beach,US2006Top commercial space launch companies by Exit Predictor Opportunity ScoreCompanyOpportunity ScoreSuccess probabilityM&A pro

76、babilityIPO probabilityTotal raised($M)HQ locationYear foundedBlue Origin9994%82%12%500.0Kirkland,US2000Phantom Space9891%76%15%88.8Tucson,US2019Space Walker9585%77%8%16.7Tokyo,Japan2017Inversion9486%84%2%41.9Los Angeles,US2021Unastella9483%75%8%21.3Seoul,South Korea2022FOSSA9081%79%2%14.9Madrid,Spa

77、in2018SpinLaunch9091%30%61%178.7Long Beach,US2014Latitude8896%90%6%41.2Reims,France2019Morpheus Space8880%79%1%28.1El Segundo,US2018X-Bow8490%68%22%99.2Albuquerque,US2016Source:PitchBook Geography:Global As of November 1,2024Note:Probability data is based on PitchBook VC Exit Predictor methodology.1

78、0Emerging Space Brief:Commercial Space LaunchCOPYRIGHT 2024 by PitchBook Data,Inc.All rights reserved.No part of this publication may be reproduced in any form or by any meansgraphic,electronic,or mechanical,including photocopying,recording,taping,and information storage and retrieval systemswithout

79、 the express written permission of PitchBook Data,Inc.Contents are based on information from sources believed to be reliable,but accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed.Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice,a past,current or future recommendation to buy or sell any security

80、or an offer to sell,or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.This material does not purport to contain all of the information that a prospective investor may wish to consider and is not to be relied upon as such or used in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment.Recommended re

81、ading“Commercial Space Data,”Federal Aviation Administration,n.d.,accessed November 1,2024.“The Commercial Space Imperative,”CSIS,Douglas Loverro,Stephen Kitay,and Mandy Vaughn,October 31,2024.“Orbital Launches of 2024,”Gunters Space Page,Gunter D.Krebs,October 31,2024.“Space Launch:Are We Heading f

82、or Oversupply or a Shortfall?”McKinsey&Company,Chris Daehnick,John Gang,and Ilan Rozenkopf,April 17,2023.“The State of Launch,”Payload,Jacqueline Feldscher,April 2,2024.“Vertical Snapshot:Space Tech Update,”PitchBook,Ali Javaheri,August 28,2023.Top commercial space launch investors by investment cou

83、ntSource:PitchBook Geography:Global As of November 1,2024InvestorInvestmentsPrimary investor typeHQ locationNational Aeronautics and Space Administration38GovernmentWashington,DCUnited States Department of Defense20GovernmentWashington,DCSpace Capital17Venture CapitalNew York,NYY Combinator16Acceler

84、ator/IncubatorMountain View,CAGaingels10Venture CapitalBurlington,VTAlumni Ventures8Venture CapitalManchester,NHK5 Global8Venture CapitalSan Francisco,CAAirbus Ventures7Corporate Venture CapitalMenlo Park,CACalm Ventures7Venture CapitalLos Angeles,CANational Science Foundation7GovernmentAlexandria,VA