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1、2023 LAND MARKET SURVEYREALTORS Land InstituteNational Association of REALTORS Released March 2024A Message from the RLI President“I am proud to share with the industry at large the REALTORS Land Institutes 2023 Land Market Survey.Land continues to be an important asset even as we return to a more b

2、alanced market.Growth in land sales and prices are in line or exceeding the expectations of REALTORS which is an encouraging sign for our future.I hope landowners and land real estate professionals alike find value in these insights as our industry continues to advance in 2024 and beyond.”Sam Bowers

3、,ALC2024 RLI National PresidentNAR Chief Economists Perspective“Home prices reached a new high in 2023 and will likely continue their upward march.Thats because there is immense housing shortage.Homebuilders have been selling more homes and REALTORS need more inventory.More land is required to turn

4、into lots and development.Moreover,there has been a population shift away from major city centers towards suburbs,exurbs,and rural areas,which necessitates more housing and commercial real estate spaces into expanding areas.Agricultural prices have retreated from recent peaks but are well above comp

5、ared to pre-covid days.Farmland demand should remain strong,especially with ever increasing geopolitical uncertainty.”Dr.Lawrence YunChief Economist and SVP of Research,National Association of REALTORSAbout the ReportObjectiveThe REALTORS Land Market Survey is a collaboration of the REALTORS Land In

6、stitute(RLI)and the National Association of REALTORS (NAR)that started in 2014.The objective of this survey is to gather information and insights about the state of the land market based on land transactions of land real estate professionals who are members of NAR and RLI.The information is intended

7、 to be a valuable resource for market intelligence and policy advocacy.Survey Method To increase the number of responses REALTORS Land Institute(RLI)and the National Association of REALTORS(NAR)independently sent The REALTORS Land Market Survey to 4600 RLI members and prospects in September 2023.The

8、 possibility of duplicate responses is eliminated by the software tracking IPs of participants.There were 450 responses,of which 68%reported a land sale in the last 12 month with the margin of error 4.1%at 95%confidence level.Thus,estimates such as the year-over-year percent change in sales and pric

9、es are the average of the monthly or quarterly figures reported by the respondents.The REALTORS Land Institute defines a land transaction as one in which the value of the land is at least 51%of the value of the transaction.What is a Land Transaction?ECONOMICENVIRONMENTHigh interest rates increased b

10、orrowing costs.Still high inflation increased construction costs and shook investors confidence.Historically low number of homes for sale4,105,000 6,128,000 4,098,000 -1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 7,000,000 8,000,000Existing Home Sales-12.9%18.2%0.9%-15.0%-10.0%-5.0%0.

11、0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%Y/Y Percent Change in Median Existing Home Sales PriceSource of data:NAR estimated from the Federal Reserve Board Financial Accounts(total real estate less replacement cost)Residential land held by households rose to$18.6T in 2023($17.2T in 2022)Land is 41%of the total value of

12、household real estate assetsSource of data:NAR estimated from the Federal Reserve Board Financial Accounts(total real estate less replacement cost)0%10%20%30%40%50%60%05000100001500020000250002000-Q12000-Q32001-Q12001-Q32002-Q12002-Q32003-Q12003-Q32004-Q12004-Q32005-Q12005-Q32006-Q12006-Q32007-Q1200

13、7-Q32008-Q12008-Q32009-Q12009-Q32010-Q12010-Q32011-Q12011-Q32012-Q12012-Q32013-Q12013-Q32014-Q12014-Q32015-Q12015-Q32016-Q12016-Q32017-Q12017-Q32018-Q12018-Q32019-Q12019-Q32020-Q12020-Q32021-Q12021-Q32022-Q12022-Q32023-Q12023-Q3TOTAL VALUE OF LAND HELD BY HOUSEHOLDS(IN BILLION DOLLARS)AND PERCENT SH

14、ARE OF LAND VALUE TO HOUSEHOLD REAL ESTATE ASSETSland costland cost/real estate valueHome Price Appreciation since Covid Arrival (%change from 2020 Q1 to 2023 Q4)Source:NAR Analysis of FHFA Home Price Index$0$20,000$40,000$60,000$80,000$100,000$120,000$140,000$160,000$180,000Not Wealth Gain but a Te

15、stament of Housing ShortageAverage Price of Mobile Homes:Double-sized and Single-sizedBig Price Gain of 58%from pre-pandemic 2019Source:CensusInventory of Existing Homes FallingInventory of New Homes Rising 0500,0001,000,0001,500,0002,000,0002,500,0003,000,0003,500,0002011-Jan2012-Jan2013-Jan2014-Ja

16、n2015-Jan2016-Jan2017-Jan2018-Jan2019-Jan2020-Jan2021-Jan2022-Jan2023-Jan2024-JanSource:NARSingle-Family Housing StartsTrying to return to normal after a decade of underproductionSource:NAR forecast and HUDSource:Federal Reserve050010001500200025002017-Jan2018-Jan2019-Jan2020-Jan2021-Jan2022-Jan2023

17、-Jan2024-Jan$billionFed Rate Hikes Have Hurt Community Banks.Commercial Real Estate Loans by Small Banks Top 25 Large BanksLong-term Interest Rates to Fall?1.Rents will calm down further.Holds down CPI.and make the Fed cut interest rates2.Community banks are suffering from high interest rates3.Sprea

18、d with benchmark 10-year Treasury is abnormally highTotal Payroll Jobs5.5 million more compared to pre-Covid highsSource:BLS1000001100001200001300001400001500001600001700002020-Jan2020-Feb2020-Mar2020-Apr2020-May2020-Jun2020-Jul2020-Aug2020-Sep2020-Oct2020-Nov2020-Dec2021-Jan2021-Feb2021-Mar2021-Apr

19、2021-May2021-Jun2021-Jul2021-Aug2021-Sep2021-Oct2021-Nov2021-Dec2022-Jan2022-Feb2022-Mar2022-Apr2022-May2022-Jun2022-Jul2022-Aug2022-Sep2022-Oct2022-Nov2022-Dec2023-Jan2023-Feb2023-Mar2023-Apr2023-May2023-Jun2023-Jul2023-Aug2023-Sep2023-Oct2023-Nov2023-Dec2024-Jan2024-FebIn thousandsJob Gains Since

20、Pre-COVID Record High Payroll Employment(%change from March 2020 to January 2024)Source:NAR Analysis of BLS dataAnnual Economic Growth(GDP).Suggest More Future Jobs Source:BEA-10-8-6-4-20246810200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023Seasonally

21、adjusted annualized sale pace2023 LAND MARKET SURVEY RESULTSREALTORS Land Institute RegionsDistribution of RLI/NAR Respondents Who Reported a Land Sale in 2023302 respondents reported a land sale in 2023Land Returns to Balanced Market After COVID Highs4.1%1.7%2.0%3.5%2.0%2.2%2.6%4.8%1.2%0.0%1.0%2.0%

22、3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%2014201520162017201820192020202120222023Year over-year percent change in dollar land salesResidential,Industrial,and Recreational Land Sales Posted Strongest Growth of 1.3%to 1.4%ResidentialIndustrialRecreationalAgri.,irrigatedAgri.,non-irrigatedRanchCommercialTimber20184.0%2.0%3.0%1

23、.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%1.0%20193.0%2.0%3.0%2.0%1.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%20206.0%4.0%3.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%1.0%0.0%20217.0%5.0%5.0%4.0%4.0%4.0%3.0%2.0%202220231.4%1.4%1.3%1.0%0.8%0.8%1.0%1.2%0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%8.0%AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE IN LAND SALES OF REALTORS201820192020202120222023All Land Categories Show

24、Price Gains of 1.3%or MoreResidentialIndustrialRecreationalAgri.,irrigatedAgri.,non-irrigatedRanchCommercialTimber20185.0%3.0%2.0%1.0%2.0%0.0%4.0%1.0%20193.0%3.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%1.0%4.0%1.0%20207.0%3.0%4.0%2.0%3.0%1.0%0.0%1.0%202110.0%8.0%8.0%7.0%6.0%6.0%6.0%5.0%202220232.9%2.3%1.8%1.6%1.3%1.6%1.8%1.9%2

25、.9%2.3%1.8%1.6%1.3%1.6%1.8%1.9%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE IN LAND PRICES201820192020202120222023Land Sales Growth of REALTORS Mostly in linewith 3-Month Sales ExpectationsLand Price Increases Reported by REALTORS Beat 3-Month Price ExpectationsRegions 2,5,7,1050%of land sal

26、es among REALTORS in 2023Top Land Markets in 2023:CA,TX,GA,FL,CO37%of land sales among REALTORS in 2023Most Land Sales Were AgriculturalResidential Land Typically Sold in 60 Days30-45 days in Regions 1,2,3,10Region 1:Most Expensive Residential LandsAround$200,000/acre52%of REALTORS Report Difficult

27、Zoning Regulations in Past 5 YearsRegion 1(CT,MA,ME,NH,NY,RI,VT)Percent Change in Land Sales by Land TypeRegion 2(DE,MD,MI,NJ,OH,PA,WV)Percent Change in Land Sales by Land TypeRegion 3(MN,ND,SD,WI)Percent Change in Land Sales by Land TypeRegion 4(ID,MT,OR,WA)Percent Change in Land Sales by Land Type

28、Region 5(CA,NV)Percent Change in Land Sales by Land TypeRegion 6(AZ,CO,NM,UT,WY)Percent Change in Land Sales by Land TypeRegion 7(IA,IL,IN,KS,MO,NE)Percent Change in Land Sales by Land TypeRegion 8(OK,TX)Percent Change in Land Sales by Land TypeRegion 9(AL,AR,KY,LA,MS,TN)Percent Change in Land Sales

29、 by Land TypeRegion 10(FL,GA,NC,SC,VA)Percent Change in Land Sales by Land TypeSUMMARYSummaryLand sales rose 1.2%in 2023,moderating from the previous years.In 2023,land transactions of REALTORS survey findings indicated a growth of 1.2%in land sales.Although this marks a slower pace compared to past

30、 performance,it highlights the markets resilience and ongoing potential for expansion amidst challenging conditions.Land value rose to 18.6 trillion,up from 17.2 trillion a year ago.As of 2023 Q3,the underlying value of the land of real estate owned by households totaled$18.6 trillion,up from$17.2 t

31、rillion in 2022 Q3.According to NARs estimate,the land value accounts for 41%of household real estate assets based on Federal Reserve Board data on household real estate and the cost of structures.Most land is purchased in under 60 days.Land sales generally conclude within a 60-day period,while a no

32、table 25%of these transactions are wrapped up in less than 30 days.Particularly in regions 1,2,3,7,9 and 10,the market moves even faster,with most sales closing in under 45 days.Summary(continued)Land price growth adjusted to 1.9%.Land price per acre growth adjusted to a rate of 1.9%on average,in 20

33、23.By type of land,residential,industrial and timber land posted the strongest price growth of 1.9%to 2.9%which is in line with pre-covid performance.Remarkably,timber and ranch land prices grew more than before the pandemic.Regions 1,9 and 10 were the hottest markets.Regions 1,9,and 10 were the mar

34、kets with the highest increase in land sales in the range of 2.8%to 3.7%.Also,the biggest land market was Region 10(14%of land sales),followed by Region 7(13%).By state,the states with the largest share of land sales were California(12%),Texas(7%),Georgia(7%),Florida(5%),and Colorado(5%),accounting

35、for over the third of all land transactions nationwide.By type of land,most popular sold lands were agricultural(32%),residential(24%)and recreational(17%).Region 1 has the most expensive residential lands.Unsurprisingly,Region 1 boasted the highest prices for residential land,commanding up to$200,0

36、00 per acre,underscoring its premium market position.Conversely,Region 2 presented the most economical choices,with land available at$2,000 per acre.2023 Land Market Survey ReportREALTORS Land InstituteAubrie Kobernus,MBA,RCE,Chief Executive OfficerKat Szymanski,Marketing ManagerNational Association

37、 of REALTORS Research GroupLawrence Yun,Ph.D.Senior Vice President&Chief EconomistOleh Sorokin,Data Analyst,Commercial Real EstateMeredith Dunn,Research ManagerThe REALTORS Land Institute,“The Voice of Land,”defines professionalism by promoting integrity,expertise,and excellence in every aspect of l

38、and real estate.The NATIONAL ASSOCIATION of REALTORS,“The Voice for Real Estate,”is Americas largest trade association,representing over 1.5 million members,including NARs institutes,societies,and councils,involved in all aspects of the real estate industry.The NATIONAL ASSOCIATION of REALTORS Resea

39、rch Group collects and disseminates timely,accurate,and comprehensive real estate data and to conduct economic analysis to inform and engage members,consumers,policy makers,and the media in a professional and accessible manner.REALTORS Land Institute 430 N.Michigan Avenue Chicago,IL 60611 Phone:800-441-LAND(5263)http:/ ASSOCIATION of REALTORS 500 New Jersey Avenue,NW Washington,DC 20001Phone:202-383-1000 https:/www.nar.realtor/