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1、Turning point:Feeding the world sustainablyThe costs and opportunities of long-term food system transformationNovember 2024Page 2Page 3Turning point:Feeding the world sustainablyFeeding the world sustainably means that by 2070,the world needs to feed close to 10 billion people by producing 40%more c

2、alories.Contents5 Appendices Foreword 6Insights summary-The global food sustainability challenge 8Doing more with less,in the right places,in the right way 10Breaking from business-as-usual and achieving global food sustainability 121 The grand challenge of feeding the world sustainably 161.1 Histor

3、ically,food production has kept pace with population growth,18 albeit at the expense of the environment 1.2 Unsustainable food production could slow progress in 20 eliminatinghungerandreducefoodaffordability1.3 Looking ahead,current pressures are set to exacerbate the 22 challenge of feeding the wor

4、ld sustainably 1.4 How can the world continue to produce more food for a growing population 23 in a sustainable way?2 Feeding the world sustainably:Possible solutions 282.1 Tech-driven innovation and boosting agricultural productivity 312.2 Restoring natural capital as a pathway to strengthening glo

5、bal food security 332.3 Reducing emissions and contributing to global net-zero 352.4 Shifting habits and empowering sustainable food choices 372.5 Closing the loop by embracing circularity in the food system 403 The turning point:The opportunity of changing course 423.1 What does it mean to feed the

6、 world sustainably?453.2 Ensuring enough food for all:Food production and consumption increases 483.3 A more productive global economy 534 Sowing the seeds of change 544.1 Enabling system-level solutions requires immediate,coordinated action 564.2 How much would it cost?584.3 Next steps for each seg

7、ment of the food system 594.4 The importance of taking action now 615.1 Appendix A Glossary 625.2 Appendix B D.Climate modeling approach 635.3 Appendix C Reduction in undernourishment 785.4 Endnotes 805.5 Authors 845.6 Contacts&Acknowledgements 855.7 Limitation of our work 86Page 6Page 7Turning poin

8、t:Feeding the world sustainablyPage 6Page 7ForewordOver the past 10,000 years,the movement from hunter-gatherers to low yield crop farming,to higher yield crop farming,and then to mass production of food through the Green Revolution is a quintessential story of human progress,encompassing growth,dev

9、elopment,and technological advancement.Jennifer SteinmannGlobal Sustainability Business leaderBut while feeding the world has largely been a story of success,it is not yet finished as nearly 10%of the worlds populationsome 730 million peopleare undernourished.And,like many stories weve heard before,

10、it has come at a previously hidden cost loss of biodiversity,degradation of the environment,and a worsening of climate change.Looking ahead,the three-part challenge we collectively face is that of continuing to feed a growing global population,while increasing food security,all while decarbonizing t

11、he agricultural sector and the food system.Feeding the world,sustainably,while lifting people out of undernourishment,is the Turning Point that is the object of this report.This report highlights five system-level solutions which shift us from business-as-usual to realizing a turning point in feedin

12、g the world sustainably.economic growth as a result of agricultural decline,reduced labor productivity,and damage to capital and land.2.Enhancing the sustainability of the global food system could see the world produce an extra 1,030 trillion calories in 2070-enough to meet the minimum needs of an a

13、dditional 1.6 billion people in 2070;one-in-five of these extra calories in regions of the world where hunger is more prevalent could support an additional 300 million otherwise undernourished people.3.Over the same period,emissions from the global food system could fall by around two-thirds,aiding

14、the global path to net-zero.The reality is that modeling such outcomes is one thing,but it is another to effect change which drives a systemic shift in production and distribution.As a starting point,there is a need to focus climate finance on the sustainable transition in the food system.While the

15、agrifood system generates one-third of global emissions,it receives only 5%of climate finance today.To shift to a more sustainable global food system,additional investments are required.The World Bank estimates that investment in the food system needs to reach US$260 billion per year(equivalent to 0

16、.2%of global GDP in 2023)between now and 2030 particularly in the areas of natural capital,mitigation,circularity and behavior change.Accelerating productivity-enhancing technologies across the global food system such as earth observation coupled with precision farming,restoring biodiversity and val

17、uing natural capital,driving behavioral changes in consumption,reducing emissions,and embedding circularity,will take investment,but the dividends more than outweigh the costs:1.Action to sustainably transform the global food system,including taking action on climate change to limit warming to below

18、 2C,could see global economic growth(GDP)gains of$US121 trillion by 2070,while making significant progress toward eliminating food insecurity by lowering global food prices by 16%.In the absence of such actions on climate change,the global economy could face a US$190 trillion hit to Moreover,across

19、the system,every value chain actorfinance,tech,supply chain,governmentwill need to be involved,a feat of coordination.For example,not all of the solutions needed to create net-zero food systems at scale exist yet,so driving a culture of innovation,diffusing breakthroughs in technology,and driving co

20、st reductions will be critical elements to help close the innovation gap.It will be essential for food producers to collaborate across the supply chain,particularly between large and well-resourced processors and smaller supply chain operators upstream,while the export and import of decarbonization

21、knowledge must be facilitated by global trade.Feeding the world,sustainably,is a moral,environmental,economic,and indeed security challenge.Together,as we continue to shape this story of human progress,two different paths lie in front of us.Actors across the ecosystem need to come together to take b

22、old actions today that can guide the world down the path that contributes to growth,lifts people out of hunger and strengthens the world we live in.We put forward this report and implore you to join us in making this Turning Point a reality.Page 8Page 9Turning point:Feeding the world sustainablyPage

23、 8Page 9The global food sustainability challengeFor centuries,innovation and natural resources have driven the expansion of food production to support a growing global population,generally improving food security and reducing global food prices.However,these trends have stalled and even reversed in

24、recent years.In the past decade,undernourishment in low-income regions has risen from 22%to 28%,while real food prices have simultaneously increased by almost 20%.Today,approximately 730 million peoplenearly 10%of the global populationare undernourished.After a period of progress,global hunger is no

25、 longer falling.Not only does hunger persist,but it has also been rising in many regions.Historically,increasing food production has had an over-reliance on finite natural resources and causes environmental Business-as-usual would require land used by agriculture to be 13%larger than it was in 2020.

26、This is the equivalent to an additional 645 million hectares needed to grow more foodan area twice the size of India.The food system is central to a global“polycrisis,”where the dynamics of climate change,loss of biodiversity,competing pressures over finite resources,and falling yields create a vici

27、ous spiral when it comes to feeding the world sustainably.bBusiness-as-usual in the way the world produces food will contribute to slowing progress in reducing hunger,reducing food affordability,and driving food insecurity.impacts like climate change and biodiversity loss,which in turn threaten futu

28、re food security.In a world that is more than 3C warmer by the end of the century,unchecked climate change could cost the global economy almost US$190 trillion in present value terms between 2025 and 2070,compared to a baseline that does not account for climate change.Climate damages are estimated t

29、o reduce the value of primary food production industries(such as crops,livestock,dairy and fisheries)by US$13 trillion(in present value terms)between 2025 and 2070.Without significant changes to how food is produced,feeding a growing population will likely require additional natural resources that a

30、re already under pressure,especially water and land.Insights summaryFeeding the world sustainably means that,by 2070,the world needs to feed close to 10 billion people by producing 40%more calories,while limiting the environmental impacts of food production,especially by reducing emissions and limit

31、ing warming to well below 2C.More food,sustainably produced,could contribute to reducing the number of undernourished people by 300 million.Continuing business-as-usual is not sustainable.We cannot take historical gains in food production for granted and our current system cannot be relied upon to f

32、eed a growing population sustainably(environmentally,socially and economically)into the future.System-level change is needed to help address the global food sustainability challenge.undernourishedpeople byMore foodsustainablyproducedcould helpreduce thenumber of300milliona Net present value of the i

33、ncremental change in primary food production output in the feeding the world sustainably compared to business-as-usual,calculated using a 2%social discount rate.Incremental changes for years between 2025 and 2070(inclusive).All monetary values are in 2023 US$.b The“food system”here captures the proc

34、esses and actors that convert natural resources and the environment,through agriculture and other activities,through to the downstream processing and manufacturing and retailing.Turning point:Feeding the world sustainablyPage 10Page 11Turning point:Feeding the world sustainablyDoing more with less,i

35、n the right places,in the right wayBreaking from business-as-usual means navigating an increasingly narrow path to a world that produces enough nutritious food sustainably for its growing population.The total production of food needs to increase alongside a shift in its distributionensuring food ava

36、ilability for lower-income countries.Economic growth and poverty reduction are concentrated in these regions,which are also the most exposed to climate change.Investing in technology and innovation,as well as improving land management practices to produce more food on each hectare,is critical to hel

37、ping protect the worlds stored carbon in vegetation and soils,and its biodiversity,thereby reducing some of the worst impacts of warming.This report highlights a system-level transformation,which shows a path to sustainability is possible in the long-term.Feeding the world sustainably means feeding

38、around 10 billion people by producing 40%more calories than society does today,c while limiting warming to well below 2C.At the same time,under this system-level transformation,food is more affordable for all,and fewer people would suffer from undernourishment.This increase in food is concentrated i

39、n low-income countries,where calories per capita per day increases by 626 kcal(Figure ii),or almost 400 trillion kcal in 2070.Achieving this could see the world with an extra 1,030 trillion calories in 2070.This is enough to support an additional 1.6 billion people in 2070,at the minimum daily requi

40、rements of around 1,800 calories per person per day.The modeling suggests almost one-in-five of those extra calories will be in regions with higher rates of undernourishment,enough to fully support an additional 300 million of otherwise undernourished people from those regions.dModeling the economic

41、 impacts of transforming the worlds food systemsUnderstanding the potential impacts of addressing global hunger sustainably requires an analytical approach that captures the interlinkages between the macroeconomy,global food markets,trade,and agrifood systems.A multisectoral and global lens is neces

42、sary to accurately reflect the position of agrifood systems across different sectors and regions,and within value chains.Deloittes in-house D.Climate model was used to analyze the potential of each of these five solutions to sustainably feed the world in the future.As much as possible,the scenarios

43、are grounded to reflect their real-world potential and complemented the modeling with real-world case studies of where,and how,these solutions are already working to help deliver improvements to global food supply.1.Business-as-usual(baseline)Change in the food system to sustainably increase output

44、is slow.The costs of inaction on climate change are high and materially impact food production.In addition,growing supply-side and demand-side pressures exacerbate hunger and food insecurity in vulnerable countries.Environmental degradation from unsustainable farming practices continues to undermine

45、 food production.The economic costs of inaction(Box 1.2)are quantified by comparing the business-as-usual economic growth path,with more than 3C of warming,to a path that does not account for climate change.2.Feeding the world sustainablyThis scenario reflects a step change in what,where and how foo

46、d is grown.Countries that invest in agriculture-related innovation and technology will help drive changes in diets,address environmental problems that undermine food production(such as land degradation and biodiversity loss),and implement policies that deliver a more equitable food system.Rapid and

47、coordinated decarbonization would limit the physical impacts of climate change on agricultural productivity.c In a dietary context,the term calories and kilocalories(kcal)can be referred to interchangeably.This convention is adopted in this report but note that scientifically the unit of measure tha

48、t is used is kilocalories(kcal).d Appendix C for the approach to estimating the reduction in undernourished population.Figure 1 Economic scenario framework used in the reportScenario pathwaysEmissions pathways2024Todayseconomy2070Business-as-usualFeeding the world sustainably+3CBelow 2CPage 12Page 1

49、3Turning point:Feeding the world sustainablyFigure ii Decomposition of change in food supply in 2070(kcal/person/day)Note:Cost of the net-zero transition represents an economy-wide adjustment and shift in activity towards a low-emissions system.It does not represent the direct abatement costs/expend

50、itures on any individual abatement measure which are instead included in overall economic output(Appendix B).Source:Deloitte analysis based on D.Climate modeling described in Appendix B.2024.For information,contact Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited.Breaking from business-as-usual and achieving global

51、 food sustainabilityThis report focuses on five possible system-level solutions to feed the world more sustainably.Deloitte Economics Institute modeling shows that while the world can limit warming,reduce emissions,and sustainably produce more food for a growing population,this cannot be done if we

52、collectively continue on a business-as-usual path.Reducing emissions to limit global warming to below 2C is critical to ensure a sustainable food supply.While there is an initial transition cost associated with decarbonization,avoiding the worst impacts associated with unchecked climate change could

53、 improve food consumption by more than 100 calories per person per day in 2070 (Figure i).e The Below 2C scenario has been broken down into two components:one reflecting the cost of transition,the other showing the benefits of reduced climate damages.Indeed,the net gains associated with global decar

54、bonization for global food supply,almost 80 calories per person per day,could continue to grow to the end of the century.This highlights that achieving a net-zero transition sooner is one of the most important actions the world can take now to sustainably secure food supply in the future.eCoupling t

55、he global ambition toward decarbonization with investment in other food system interventions is essential.These interventions,such as investing in agricultural research and development,land restoration and management practices,and circularity and promoting behavioral changes,can enable us to collect

56、ively harness the benefits of a food system transformation(Figure i).Figure i Contribution to overall improvement in food supply in 2070(%share).Solutions to feeding the world sustainablyNote:The contribution of reducing emissions is net of the transition costs of reducing emissions.The contribution

57、 of the circularity interventions is limited to improvements associated with doubling todays rates of circularity within the food system by 2032.5 It is not reflecting the contribution that economy-wide circularity measures could make.Source:Deloitte analysis based on D.Climate modeling described in

58、 Appendix B.2024.For information,contact Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited.Cost of net-zero transitionAvoided damagesfrom climate changeReducing emissions(net impact)Restoring natureleveraging natural capitalCircularity in the food system(e.g.,food and organic waste)Sustainablefood choices(e.g.behavi

59、oral changes and shift in diets)TOTALsustainably scenario,compared to business-as-usualAgricultural productivityfrom tech and innovationFeeding the world sustainably scenarioReducing emissionsfrom business-as-usual scenario to below 2CAdditional calories per person,per day+78+187+70+23+15+3730Accele

60、rating innovation,technology and productivity improvementsat a faster rate than what has been achieved in the past,allowing food producers to do more with less.Guiding consumer choice and dietary shifts to support healthier,more nutritious and more sustainable outcomes.Enhancing circularity in the f

61、ood system,addressing food waste and using by-products of food production,that redirects material flows from the traditional linear path to an alternative circular path,enhancing efficiency and allowing us to feed more people.50%21%19%6%4%Protecting,restoring,and improving natural capitalincluding t

62、he land,the soil,the water,the vegetation,the wildlife,the ecosystem services to improve food production and food security.Reducing emissionsand thereby limiting climate change and the damages it causes is fundamental to a sustainable food system in the long term.Page 15Turning point:Feeding the wor

63、ld sustainablyFigure iii Feeding the world sustainably can support increased equity in the food system,increasing food affordability and accessibility in low income countries.a)World food prices of key commodities deviation(%relative to the business-as-usual scenario)b)Additional daily calories(kcal

64、/person/day)relative to the business-as-usual by income groupSource:Deloitte analysis based on D.Climate modeling described in Appendix B.2024.For information,contact Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited.Relative to the baselinecalories/pp/day+62601002003004005006007002030High incomeUpper-middle incomeL

65、ower-middle incomeLow income204020502070scenario,global agricultural outputlarger than business-as-usualin 2070 isUS$1 trillionIn the“feeding the world sustainably”Collectively,across each of the possible solutions modeled,it is estimated that the“feeding the world sustainably”scenario can enhance f

66、uture food security in several pivotal ways:Reduce global food prices by 16%overall by 2070(Figure ii).This is driven by two main forces:a greater global supply of food shifts prices down,while a gradual shift toward more sustainable diets helps to drive the changes in prices across commodities,with

67、 cattle meat having the largest reduction in prices(due to changing demand and diet preferences),while sugar has one of the smallest reductions.Increase the global calorie production by 11%or 1,030 trillion calories,over the baseline by 2070.This increase is concentrated in low-income countries,wher

68、e calories per person per day increases by 626 kcal(Figure ii),or 400 trillion kcal in total in 2070.Although shifts in dietary patterns lead to reduced consumption of emissions-intensive protein sources,there is an overall increase in protein consumption.Globally,protein consumption increases by ov

69、er 10%above business-as-usual levels in 2070.Innovation helps to drive improvements in productivity while simultaneously reducing damages from climate change.The impacts can be large.Global agricultural output in 2070 is US$1 trillion larger than business-as-usual,which is about the equivalent of th

70、e current agricultural output of the US and India combined.Between 2025 and 2070,the increase in the food systems output is worth US$22 trillion above business-as-usual levels.The global economy also benefits from these food system transformations.Global gross domestic product(GDP)is projected to be

71、 US$121 trillionf larger between 2025 and 2070,relative to a business-as-usual scenario.In 2070,global GDP is US$16 trillion largerequivalent to an almost 5%increase in the global economy relative to business-as-usual.These results represent a pivotal shift in the way the world increases its food su

72、pply.Food supply grows with less impact on land use change and does so while contributing to reducing global emissions.The food system is interconnected with surrounding systems such as health,ecological,economy and governance,and science and innovation.Achieving a sustainable food system depends on

73、 coordinated efforts and interaction with each of these systems to help ensure its long term resilience.Page 14f Net present value of the incremental change in global economic output of feeding the world sustainably compared to business-as-usual,calculated using a 2%social discount rate.All monetary

74、 values are in 2023 US$.5%0%-5%-10%-15%-20%-25%-30%-35%2025203020352040204520502055206020652070Range of modelled price reductions includes dairy,processed foods,other meat,fish,rice,sugar and fruit and vegetables.SugarCattleTotal16%Page 16Page 17Turning point:Feeding the world sustainablyThe grand c

75、hallenge of feeding the world sustainably01Page 18Page 19Turning point:Feeding the world sustainablyPage 18Page 19For centuries,humankind has found ways to improve agricultural production and support a growing global population.While peoples well-being has improved,agriculture has increasingly drawn

76、 on the natural environment in ways that are unsustainable.Advancements in agriculture can be tracked across three major revolutions over the past 10,000 years.In the first evolution,known as the Neolithic Revolution,humans transitioned from hunting and gathering to more stationary agriculture,selec

77、tively breeding crops and domesticating animals.The second,known as the British Agricultural Revolution,saw farmers replace low-yield crops like rye with higher-yielding ones like wheat and barley,and develop chemical fertilizers,advanced tools The share of the earths habitable land used for agricul

78、ture has risen from 4%just 1,000 years ago to almost half today.10 Between 1962 and 2010,the expansion of arable land used for agriculture saw almost 500 million hectares of forests and woody savannas cleared globally.11Land clearing for agriculture is the largest driver of biodiversity loss,which i

79、n turn undermines agricultural productivity.Of the 25,000 species that are identified as threatened with extinction,13,382 are threatened by agricultural land clearing and degradation.12 Loss of biodiversity directly affects agricultural productivity,as landscapes become less resilient to climate sh

80、ocks such as drought and floods,as well as pests and disease.13 and machinery.The third,known as the Green Revolution,emerged around the 1950s.Agricultural productivity increased markedly,driven by new technologies such as inorganic fertilizers,agrochemicals and mechanization.New innovations in plan

81、t and animal genetics,food distribution and changes in consumption patterns also transformed the wider food system.The Green Revolution contributed to significantly reducing global hunger and poverty;without it,global caloric availability could have declined by around 11%to 13%.9 Although these adva

82、nces have met growing global food demand in the past,the practices that underpin them cannot sustainably feed the world in the future.Agriculture has increasingly consumed finite natural resources in an unsustainable manner to lift production.1.1 Historically,food production has kept pace with popul

83、ation growth,albeit at the expense of the environmentIn addition,modern agriculture has contributed significantly to climate change,which in turn threatens the production systems that society has relied upon to increase food production.The global food system contributes almost a third of global gree

84、nhouse gas emissions,driven largely by livestock and crop production,land-use change,as well as supply chain emissions.14 Agricultural production is particularly vulnerable to the impacts of a warming climate via long-term changes in temperature and rainfall,as well as increasing severity and freque

85、ncy of more acute events such as storms,drought,hail and flooding.Governance for food and nutrition securityAgricultural productivity and innovationNutrition and healthGlobal economic growthPopulation growth,urbanization and ageingCompetition for natural resourcesClimate changeInvasive pests and dis

86、easesConflicts,crises and natural disastersPoverty,inequality and food insecurityFigure 1.1 Key challenges affecting the global food systemSource:Deloitte Economics Institute.Page 20Page 21Turning point:Feeding the world sustainablyPage 20Page 21The world should not take historical gains in food pro

87、duction and nourishment for granted.The way the world has increased food production in the past is not a sustainable path forward.There is growing evidence that the recent slowdown in the worlds ability to feed itself could be a sign of worsening sustainability problems with the global food system.C

88、oncerns primarily relate to:An increasing draw on finite natural resources for production,such as land,water,fertilizer,fish and other wild species in a way that,because of fundamental limits to nature,cannot be sustained into the future;15 The prevalence of hunger is disproportionate,with the large

89、st number of people facing hunger located in Sub-Saharan Africa and Southern Asia.20 In addition to the uneven distribution of calories,populations in many low-income countries suffer from a lack of micronutrients,which are essential for a healthy diet.21 Increasing environmental impacts of food pro

90、duction,some of which are undermining food production itself,such as climate change,loss of critical biodiversity,land degradation,and stressed water catchment and rivers systems that food supply depends upon;16 and The social disapproval of growing inequality in food availability,highlighted by the

91、 growing overconsumption problems in the developed world at a time of worsening undernourishment in low-income countries.17 Even though food supply has kept pace with global population growth to date,hunger remains prevalent and widespread.18 After nearly two decades of progress starting in 2000,glo

92、bal hunger rates are no longer falling and began rising in 2018.19 1.2 Unsustainable food production could slow progress in eliminating hunger and reduce food affordabilityToday,around 730 million people are in a state of undernourishment,equivalent to almost 10%of the global population(Figure 1.2).

93、22 Global hunger not only persists,but is worsening.Figure 1.2 Historical trends in global prevalence of hunger and food price changesNominalRealNorth AfricaSouth AmericaSouth-Eastern AsiaSouthern AsiaSub-Saharan AfricaWorld051015202530Global prevalence of hunger by share of population20002005201020

94、1520200510152025300196119711981199120012011202120406080100120140160IndexShare of population(%)a)Global prevalence of hunger by share of populationb)Food and Agriculture Organization(FAO)global food price index(2014-2016=100)Source:Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations(2023),Our wor

95、ld in data(2023).FAO global food price index(2014 2016=100)Page 22Page 23Turning point:Feeding the world sustainablyThe challenge of feeding the world sustainably will not resolve itself.Compounding factors affecting the supply of and demand for food will likely heighten this challenge.These compoun

96、ding factors include:Population growth,urbanization and demographic changes:The overall demand for food continues to rise along with population growth.The world population could top 10 billion before the end of the century,and these demand growth trends are set to continue.23 Demographic changes are

97、 also shifting food preferences in a way that is placing further pressure on the worlds natural resources.Demand for resource-intensive animal-sourced food,especially proteins,has grown steadily over recent decades,driven by population growth and increased consumption resulting from rising incomes,n

98、otably in middle-income countries.24 Rapid urbanization is also leading to rising and changing food demand,as well as reshaping land use patterns affecting food production.25 Climate change:The production and supply of food is highly climate sensitive.Crops,livestock,fisheries,and access to water re

99、ly heavily on environmental factors.This report takes a scenario analysis approach to understanding this challenge and potential solutions.It tackles a complex question that requires the consideration of interlinkages present between food production,economies,and sustainability.In this report,the De

100、loitte Economics Institute presents analysis from the D.Climate framework,which models the outlook for the food system under different climate scenarios.We also consider what could happen if,and when,this food system transformation takes place.In doing so,we identify the potential economic and food

101、supply impacts of different system-level solutions as part of a“feeding the world sustainably”scenario over time.Climate disruptions can impact not only the production of food,but also carry risks to global food supply chains.Physical damages from climate change are likely to be more acute in develo

102、ping,tropical and subtropical regions,as agricultural yields are expected to sharply declineimpacting local food supply as well as food prices and the economy.26 Environmental degradation:In addition to climate change,there are a host of other global environmental challenges that threaten food suppl

103、y,which are made worse by current food system production practices.These include land degradation,such as erosion and desertification,pest plants and animals,and stressed river systems threatening water supply for agriculture and other uses.Competition for land and water:Agriculture uses more land a

104、nd water than any other economic sector.However,these fundamental resources are increasingly sought after for other purposes,including for urban development,energy production,and nature-based carbon sequestration.These uses will put additional demands on land,some of which will also be suitable for

105、food production(see Box 3.1 on page 49).The results reveal the magnitude of the challenge,but also highlight the opportunities the world still has to drive growth through sustainable food production.Insights are grounded in a framework that accounts for dynamic effects as well as the interlinkages b

106、etween different regions and sectors across the global economy.In addition,because of the dynamic nature of D.Climate,the timing of costs and benefits of the system-level solutions can be examined.1.3 Looking ahead,current pressures are set to exacerbate the challenge of feeding the world sustainabl

107、y1.4 How can the world continue to produce more food for a growing population in a sustainable way?Page 24Page 25Turning point:Feeding the world sustainablyFigure 1.3 Economic scenario framework used in this reportNote:Emissions pathway temperatures are end-of-century outcomes.Refer to Appendix Tabl

108、e B.3 for more detailed descriptions of the emissions pathways adopted in this report.Source:Deloitte Economics Institute.Box 1.1 Modeling the economic impacts of transforming the worlds food systemsThe outlook for the food system is analyzed under two different scenarios:“business-as-usual”and“feed

109、ing the world sustainably.”The findings in this report refer to impacts of the“feeding the world sustainably”scenario.1.Business-as-usual(baseline)Change in the food system to sustainably increase output is slow.The costs of inaction on climate change are high and materially impact food production.I

110、n addition,growing supply-side and demand-side pressures exacerbate hunger and food insecurity in vulnerable countries.Environmental degradation from unsustainable farming practices continues to undermine food production.Despite the global ambition to limit warming to well below 2C,continuing busine

111、ss-as-usual will mean that global emissions will likely continue to rise if no further significant action is taken to mitigate climate change from today.The outcome is increasing global average warming towards the end of the century.Compared to a world without climate change,this baseline could nega

112、tively impact economic growth.The Deloitte Economics Institute modeled the economic impacts of a changing climate on long-term economic growth through the following process.This modeling process involved significant research on region-specific climate and economic impacts across the world,which are

113、used as inputs into Deloittes Regional Computable General Equilibrium Climate Integrated Assessment Model,the D.Climate model(refer to Appendix B for more detail).1.Without significant additional efforts to constrain emissions,increased atmospheric greenhouse gases(GHG)in the“business-as-usual”scena

114、rio cause average global surface temperatures to rise further above pre-industrial levels.Under this baseline,global average temperatures increase to more than 3C above pre-industrial levels g by the end of the century.27 The economic costs of inaction(Box 1.2)are quantified by comparing the busines

115、s-as-usual economic growth path,with more than 3C of warming,to a path that does not account for climate change(Appendix B,Figure B.3).2.Feeding the world sustainablyThis scenario reflects a step change in what,where and how food is grown.Countries invest in agriculture-related innovation and techno

116、logy,drive changes in diets,address environmental problems that undermine food production(such as land degradation and biodiversity loss),and implement policies that deliver a more equitable food system.Rapid and coordinated decarbonization limits the physical impacts of climate change on agricultur

117、al productivity.Warming causes the climate to change and results in physical damages to the economy.D.Climate represents six types of economic damages,which are regionalized to the climate,industry,and workforce structure of each defined region globally.2.These damages to the factors of production a

118、re distributed across the economy,impacting GDP.The economy impacts the climate,and the climate impacts the economy.3.The key variables of emissions,global average temperature,and the nature of economic output across industry structures combine to offer an alternative baseline view of economic growt

119、h that accounts for the economic impacts of unchecked climate change.In this baseline,the cost of inaction on climate change is high and materially impacts food production.4.Specific scenario analysis is then conducted in reference to a revised economic baseline(“business-as-usual”)scenario that inc

120、ludes climate change damages.Scenarios can include policy actions that either reduce or increase emissions and global average temperatures relative to the current baseline view.Scenario pathwaysEmissions pathways2024Todayseconomy2070Business-as-usualFeeding the world sustainablyThe opportunity of ch

121、anging course:Net impact of feeding the world sustainably+3CBelow 2CPage 26Page 27Turning point:Feeding the world sustainablyBox 1.2 The economic costs of inactionInaction on climate change is not without cost.Deloittes modeling shows that unchecked climate change,where global average temperatures r

122、ise by more than 3C,hinders growth across industries in each region.Despite an increase in coordination and commitments around the world,as well as significant scaling up of key technologies,there is still the potential of a climate-damaged economy becoming the new normal.The analysis shows unchecke

123、d climate change could cost the global economy almost US$190 trillion in present value terms between 2025 and 2070,compared to a baseline that does not account for climate change.Various channels of impact include losses in agricultural productivity,reduction in labor productivity due to heat stress

124、 and other health impacts,damaged capital,and loss of productive land due to rising sea levels.Together,these physical impacts impose a significant cost on the global economy.Lower incomes reduce peoples purchasing power,and,ultimately,their ability to access nutritious food.Climate change will like

125、ly affect each industry and region,but primary food production industries and lower-middle and low-income regions are particularly vulnerable.Labor and land intensive sectors,such as primary food production industries,suffer greater damages due to climate change.This is due to the ways in which clim

126、ate change lowers labor productivity and shifts long-term and seasonal temperature and precipitation patterns,which ultimately affect agricultural output.In a world that is more than 3C warmer by the end of the century,climate damages could reduce the value of primary food production industries(such

127、 as crops,livestock,dairy and fisheries)by US$13 trillion in present value terms between 2025 and 2070.These impacts reverberate through the wider food system,with food manufacturing and food services sectors US$12 trillion smaller in present value terms over this period.Climate change also has the

128、potential to disrupt global supply chains,impacting trade,investment,and the movement of people.Resource scarcity and uneven regional action towards climate change could result in global trade disruptions.As financial sectors grapple with increased risk from climate-vulnerable sectors,investment in

129、primary production industries could also decline,increasing food insecurity.The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)estimates that by 2050,an additional 80 million people will be at risk of hunger as a result of worsening climate change.28 This is nearly eight times the current population

130、 of Azerbaijan,the host of the 29th session of the Conference of Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change(COP29),approximately the population of Germany,and greater than the population of the United Kingdom.Declining crop yields,reduced livestock,dairy and fish stocks,and

131、 disruptions to global food supply chains will make it increasingly difficult for the global population to access affordable and nutritious food.The resulting food scarcity disproportionately affects lower middle-and low-income populations,leading to widespread hunger and increased inequality.Lower-

132、middle income and low-income regions are also disproportionately impacted by climate change,with these regions accounting for 65%of global losses in economic output between 2025 and 2070.Together,these factors mean that continuing business-as-usual only worsens the hunger problem at hand,deepening e

133、xisting inequalities.Primary food production industries both contribute to and are vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and ongoing environmental degradation.Reducing emissions involves transition costs and creates complex trade-offs across the economy and particularly within the agricultural

134、 sector agricultural sector,requiring substantial investment and coordinated action to transform this industry for a more sustainable future.g Preindustrial is defined in IPCC assessments as the multi-century period before the onset of large-scale industrial activity around 1750.Page 28Page 29Turnin

135、g point:Feeding the world sustainablyFeeding the world sustainably:possible solutions02Page 30Page 31Turning point:Feeding the world sustainablyFeeding the world sustainably requires system-level solutions and a rethink of business-as-usual.29 These solutions should not only produce greater quantiti

136、es in a more sustainable way,but also address the disproportionate allocation of food.Supporting ongoing food security will likely involve developing solutions that address both the inequities in food consumption and the need for sustainable food production.Solutions will need to withstand environme

137、ntal pressures and evolving policy frameworks as the global economy shifts towards decarbonization.Fundamentally,innovation and ongoing productivity improvement in the system is critical.From encouraging behavioral change and reducing food waste,to embracing technological advancements and natural ca

138、pital restoration,this chapter highlights five solutions alongside examples and case studies of leading practices available to help transform the food system to feed the world sustainably.These five major solutions and their respective contribution to the overall modeled improvement in feeding the w

139、orld sustainably(detailed in Chapter 3)are illustrated in Figure 2.1.Source:Deloitte analysis based on D.Climate modeling described in Appendix B.Technological innovation and productivity growth has historically been a significant driver of food production.Since 1962,productivity growth in agricultu

140、re has averaged 1.3%per year.30Rates of innovation and productivity growth will need to accelerate to maintain this historical progress and enable the sustainable transformation of the food system.Innovations in Earth observation and predictive analysis,precision agriculture,vertical farming,automat

141、ed harvesting,and smart manufacturing have the potential to significantly enhance farming productivitythat is,produce higher yields without requiring additional resourcesby enabling farmers to optimize resource utilization and make better,more informed decisions.Renewable energy sources,smart irriga

142、tion systems,and resource-efficient animal protein alternatives are just a few other examples of innovations that can drive this transformation.Not only can these innovations improve agricultural productivity and facilitate the transition,they can also support farmers to withstand the growing impact

143、s of climate change.Technology and information can support adaptation decisions as farmers face increasing exposure to more extreme weather patterns and events such as droughts,floods and heatwaves.Leveraging cutting-edge technologies has the potential to address global food insecurity by enabling h

144、igher crop yields with less land,and fostering more adaptable and resilient food systems and optimizing distribution through smarter technologies.2.1 Tech-driven innovation and boosting agricultural productivityFigure 2.1 Contribution to overall improvement in food supply in 2070(%share).Solutions t

145、o feeding the world sustainablyAccelerating innovation,technology and productivity improvementsat a faster rate than what has been achieved in the past,allowing food producers to do more with less.Guiding consumer choice and dietary shifts to support healthier,more nutritious and more sustainable ou

146、tcomes.Enhancing circularity in the food system,addressing food waste and using by-products of food production,that redirects material flows from the traditional linear path to an alternative circular path,enhancing efficiency and allowing us to feed more people.50%21%19%6%4%Protecting,restoring,and

147、 improving natural capitalincluding the land,the soil,the water,the vegetation,the wildlife,the ecosystem services to improve food production and food security.Reducing emissionsand thereby limiting climate change and the damages it causes is fundamental to a sustainable food system in the long term

148、.Page 32Page 33Turning point:Feeding the world sustainablyEmissions reductions Precision agriculture can significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions through the variable application of fertilizers,allowing farmers to apply nutrients more efficiently.Fertilizer inputs can be cut down by 4-6%,reduci

149、ng emissions while maintaining crop yields and minimizing costs.As such,this practice may lead to a total reduction of 27 million tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions.Landscape and ecosystem restoration and enhancement is vital for improving food security,as restoration activities revitalize the ecosy

150、stems that are essential to support food production.32 Natural capital,comprising the worlds stocks of natural resources such as land,soil,water,vegetation,wildlife and ecosystems,are foundational assets to food production.Healthy landscapes and ecosystems provide services such as water and air puri

151、fication,nutrient cycling,pollination,climate regulation,soil protection,and pest control that underpin agricultural productivity.Food system production processes and land-use change have historically depleted these natural assets and,in turn,have the potential to undermine the future resilience and

152、 efficiency of the food system.For instance,intensive agricultural practices such as land clearing,pesticide use,and pollution have threatened pollinators which are key players in global food production.33 With approximately 75%of global food production relying to some extent on Continuing investmen

153、t in EO technologies is crucial for boosting agricultural productivity.Both the public and private sectors play important roles in pushing these technological boundaries.Private sector innovation,driven by research and development and venture capital,has helped enable better crop monitoring.Public s

154、ector initiatives,such as partnerships with NASA,highlight the importance of government support.Government funding also helps to drive innovation in academia and private companies.Collectively,these efforts can continue to boost agricultural productivity.animal pollination,the loss of pollinator hab

155、itat poses a significant threat to food security.Therefore,strategies focused on protecting,restoring and improving natural capital are key to boosting food security outcomes as they strengthen ecosystem resilience over time.In some contexts,there will be trade-offs between strengthening natural cap

156、ital and food production.Sub-Saharan Africa,for example,is projected to have expansions in land-use converted from natural vegetation to agricultural landscapes as part of its continued economic development.34 In farm operations,there will be many examples where clearing land is necessary to achieve

157、 a productive outcome.However,feeding the world sustainably will likely require greater incentives and uptake of win-win initiatives,which can achieve both agricultural productivity and natural capital enhancement outcomes.Examples include agroforestry,mangrove and wetland restoration.Precision agri

158、culture and Earth observationA particular area of innovation in food systems is a shift towards precision agriculture,supported by innovations in satellite technology and Earth observation(EO).EO involves gathering detailed information on Earths activities and characteristics,both natural and artifi

159、cial,including physical,chemical,biological and anthropogenic(human)systems.According to a study,the agricultural applications of EO are projected to represent nearly a US$400 billion economic opportunity in 2030,with 85%of this growth driven by productivity-enhancing precision agriculture.31 Precis

160、ion agriculture is a practice that helps enable farmers to improve their farm management and optimize resources,leading to higher productivity and efficiency gains.Enabled by EO,precision cropping leverages satellite data to offer farmers a web-based interface for accurate land assessment and compre

161、hensive monitoring.Using this technology,farmers can monitor the performance of their crops and identify where crops are underperforming,enabling them to intervene early and mitigate the risk of low crop yields.Ultimately,precision agriculture offers a powerful tool,among a suite of technological im

162、provements,that can help combat global food insecurity and support a more efficient food system by optimizing resource use,such as water and soil,to increase the quality and quantity of crop yields.2.2 Restoring natural capital as a pathway to strengthening global food securityProductivity improveme

163、nts Weather and climate information offer seasonal forecasts,helping farmers make informed decisions.Early wildfire detection could reduce agricultural losses by 16%,with weather forecasts value adding US$2.9 per hectare for livestock and US$30.4 per hectare for crops.Precision agriculture boosts yi

164、elds per hectare,with crop and livestock output increasing by 5.3%for cotton,7.5%for wheat,and 13%for cattle and dairy,while also reducing damages to fisheries from harmful algal blooms by 31%.Page 34Page 35Turning point:Feeding the world sustainablyReviving the Amazon:Verified deforestation-free su

165、pply chains by Natura&CoNatura&Co is a global cosmetics and personal care group with bold sustainability targets.Headquartered in Sao Paulo,it is leading efforts to restore the Amazon rainforest while ethically sourcing materials for cosmetics in a way that supports local communities and biodiversit

166、y.In 2020,the company launched its“Commitment to Life”sustainability vision,highlighting the importance of ethically sourcing its natural ingredients.35 As part of this vision,Natura&Co has achieved several initiatives and has further committed to leading efforts to reforestation,promoting ecosystem

167、 conversation and addressing the climate crisis.Natura&Cos sustainability vision and commitments promote a win-win outcome by effectively balancing the restoration and protection of natural capital with the sustainable use of resources in its production processes.By restoring the Amazon and achievin

168、g deforestation-free supply chains,Natura&Co directly contributes to natural capital restoration and protection.Meanwhile,agroforestry practices increase the involvement of local communities and promote a more sustainable use of natural resources in production.To limit warming well below 2C,all sect

169、ors of the global economy will have to reduce emissions,while continuing to support economic growth and development.Sectors and regions will move at different speeds toward an overall goal of net-zero emissions.While agricultural parts of the food system are expected to move at a slower pace than ot

170、her sectors,reflecting technology availability today,it will need to contribute to emissions reductions to support a global net-zero outcome.40 Collectively,these emissions represent around a third of the global total.41 Many agricultural emissions are hard to abate,including methane emissions from

171、livestock,nitrogen and carbon emissions from soil(including fertilizer and lime applications),and agricultural emissions from transport.To help feed the world sustainably,the world will require more food.Doing so while reducing emissions-intensity of hard-to-abate activities and increasing the seque

172、stration potential of the landscape will be essential to limiting warming.Harnessing the power of climate-smart practices like agroforestry,soil organic carbon activities,feed supplements,sustainable livestock and grazing management and low-till methods can both reduce emissions,and unlock significa

173、nt co-benefits such as improving soil health and enhancing ecosystem resilience(Figure 2.2).2.3 Reducing emissions and contributing to global net-zeroEcosystem conservationForestrestoration Commitment to increase the protection and regeneration of the Amazon from 2 million to 3 million hectares,an a

174、rea equivalent to the size of Belgium.36 Natura&Co helped establish the worlds first agroforestry system for cultivating sustainable palm oil in the Amazonian region.The project demonstrated that palm oil,a key ingredient for cosmetics,is more productive and sustainable in an agroforestry system com

175、pared to monoculture.37 Commitment to assess and report Nature&Cos global biodiversity impacts and dependencies by 2025.38 Commitment to achieve verified deforestation and conversion-free critical supply chains by 2030,ensuring that the sourcing of critical ingredients does not contribute to defores

176、tation activities or disrupt ecosystems.39Feed SupplementsFeed supplements used to reduce enteric fermentation assist to decrease methane emissions from ruminant animals whilst also promoting livestock productivity.Sustainable agri-managementSustainable livestock and grazing management reduce overgr

177、azing and prevent land degradation.No-till or low-till farming practices eliminate or minimize the cost to soil health from tilling activities.Soil organic activitiesSoil organic activities,such as cover cropping have the potential to improve soil fertility,prevent soil erosion,promote water infiltr

178、ation,and limit the risk of pest and disease outbreaks.AgroforestryAgroforestry integrates trees and shrubs into agricultural farming systems supporting carbon storage capacity,biodiversity and soil fertility.Energy useBiofuels,derived from agriculture or waste streams,offer an alternative to fossil

179、 fuels.Electrification of equipment can reduce operational costs.Together,these innovations not only cut emissions,but enhance a more cost-effective and resilient food system.Figure 2.2 Emissions reduction strategies for the agricultural sectorSource:Deloitte analysis.2024.For information,contact De

180、loitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited.Page 36Page 37Turning point:Feeding the world sustainablyThe Dairy Methane Action AllianceThe agriculture sector accounts for 40%of anthropogenic methane emissions,with livestock emissions from manure and enteric fermentation representing about 32%of that total.Methane

181、 has a global warming potential about 80 times greater than CO2 in the 20 years following its release into the atmosphere.42 Given the high potency of methane,cutting these emissions is critical in the global effort to achieve net-zero.The Dairy Methane Action Alliance,a commitment by global food co

182、mpanies to tackle methane emissions,was launched at COP28 to help drive accountability,transparency and ambitious climate action across the food industry.43 The Alliance is led by food and dairy giants representing more than US$200 billion in revenue and include Bel Group,Danone,General Mills,Kraft

183、Heinz,Lactalis USA,Starbucks and Nestl,collaborating with non-government organizations such as the Environmental Defense Fund and Ceres.The Bel Group,a France-based multinational dairy company,has made a notable advancement towards producing low-methane milk by adopting the Bovaer feed supplement in

184、 Slovakia and France.44 The feed supplement reduces enteric methane emissions from cows.With over 15 independent studies conducted across Europe demonstrating substantial reductions in emissionsranging from 22%to 84%depending on dosage and conditionsthe company is now initiating a broad roll-out,off

185、ering this innovative solution to its dairy producers.45By joining the Dairy Methane Action Alliance,the signatory companies commit to meet two key milestones:1.Annual accounting for and publicly disclosing methane emissions within their dairy supply chains.2.Publishing and implementing a comprehens

186、ive methane reduction action plan by the end of 2024.Many alliance signatories,however,already have actions to reduce emissions underway.One example of these initiatives is the Bel Groups rollout of methane-reducing feed additives.Consumer behavior is an important lever in fostering transformative f

187、ood system change.Shifting consumer preference toward more sustainable products will help enhance the economics of the solutions mentioned in section 2.4.This can be achieved by improving the transparency of supply chains and increasing information available to consumers.Dietary shifts will also lik

188、ely play an important rolein a positive or negative direction.As the global population continues to grow,the availability and accessibility of foods which provide a nutritionally balanced diet,as well as minimize environmental impact,have become more urgent.In the past decade,a significant body of r

189、esearch has analyzed the impacts of a dietary shift towards more healthy and sustainable food choices:A study has projected that adopting a healthier and more sustainable diet by 2050 could reduce costs by an average of 37%across all countries compared to current dietary costs.46 This highlights the

190、 additional financial benefits of increased food affordability,as households spend less of their disposable income on food.A study in Europe has found that mortality and cancer rates can be reduced by increasing the uptake of flexitarian diets.Such dietary shifts can also cut greenhouse gas emission

191、s by 50%and decrease land use by 62%.47 In turn,these benefits have the potential to bolster the agricultural sectors resilience and productivity.It is well-documented that demand shifts can have a significant impact on global emissions.The challenge is how to enable those changes.Informing consumer

192、 choice plays a critical role in helping drive behavioral change as it helps enable consumers to verify the sustainability claims of products,encouraging more informed decisions.Consumers are increasingly prioritizing sustainability in their food choices,with nearly half of US consumers checking lab

193、els for data on sustainability.48 There is mixed evidence on the extent to which this translates to an increased willingness to pay for those food items.Nevertheless,it is clear that shifting behaviors and encouraging dietary shifts,particularly in developed economies,will have a material impact on

194、the long-term development and sustainability of the global food system.2.4 Shifting habits and empowering sustainable food choicesPage 38Page 39Turning point:Feeding the world sustainablyBuilding consumer confidence:Climate-smart product certification in CanadaDeloitte Canada recently worked alongsi

195、de value chain participants,including growers,producers,processors and retailers,to develop an open-source framework outlining the key considerations and methods required for a trustworthy,credible,and future-oriented climate-smart product certification.Greater supply chain traceability and transpar

196、ency is necessary to support consumers transition to more sustainable choices and enable the agrifood system to lower emissions on a net-zero pathway.49To help support the widespread adoption of climate-smart products,value chain participants have employed different approaches to product claims.Howe

197、ver,the current landscape of product label claims and certifications can be evolved to improve consumer trust levels.While self-driven company or industry-led claims on food packaging require minimal effort to commercialize,they can lead to much lower levels of consumer trust compared to other appro

198、aches.Regulatory claims and non-profit certifications with third-party verification offer a more robust approach with the potential to increase consumer trust levels,but at a higher level of effort to commercialize.The open-source framework,developed by Deloitte Canada and value chain participants,p

199、roposed four criteria for a standardized,climate-smart product claim and emissions-intensity measurement metrics which can be implemented throughout the value chain to support third-party verification.By establishing these rigorous standards,the framework helps to ensure greater accountability,trans

200、parency and traceability,fostering more meaningful environmental stewardship throughout the value chain.0Page 40Page 41Turning point:Feeding the world sustainablyHistorically,food production systems have followed a linear process:extracting raw materials,processing them into products,consuming those

201、 products,and ultimately generating waste.51 A significant amount of consumer-ready food waste is produced globally each year.This represents a large lossnot only in nutritional resources,but also of the energy,labor,land and other inputs required for food production that could have been put to alte

202、rnative use.Food waste occurs throughout the entire supply chain,from the farm to the consumer:At the farm level,13%of the worlds food produced is lost between post-harvest production and retail due to factors like over-production,weather,disease,inadequate infrastructure and inefficient production

203、processes.52 At the consumer level,17%of the food available to households,retailers,restaurants and other food services is wasted,often due to a lack of awareness and overpurchasing,resulting in product expiration before use.53,54The combined impact of waste inefficiencies across the supply chain no

204、t only exacerbates global food insecurity,but can also cause the avoidable exhaustion of critical resources.The reuse and regeneration of materials and waste represent an economic strategy focused on minimizing environmental impact and optimizing resource efficiency.A circular food system approach d

205、iffers from a technological solution,which aims to improve productivity through innovation.Instead,circularity in the food system aims to close the loop by repurposing waste so that it can be used as inputs,thereby reducing demand for new raw materials.The strategy integrates sustainable practices a

206、cross industries and supply chains to prolong the useful life of materials and ensure circulation within the economy for as long as possible.The management and profitable reuse of food and other organic waste may have a transformative effect on the future of a sustainable food system.2.5 Closing the

207、 loop by embracing circularity in the food system Delivering circularity solutions across regionsThe Circularity Gap Report series,published by the Circle Economy Foundation,presents varying circular solutions for food systems that are tailored to local contexts and country profiles worldwide.While

208、the focus for Shift countries account for a minority of the worlds population but consume one-third of materials and generate two-fifths of emissions.This profile fits with higher-income countries,characterized by over-consumption,high food waste,and dependence on imports.Most food waste in these co

209、untries occurs at the retail and consumption levels,making these the primary focus of circular solutions.Build countries are home to 46%of the global population and face challenges such as malnutrition and difficulties to meet other basic needs like education and health care.This profile fits with l

210、ower-income countries,characterized by agrarian,biomass-based economies where most waste is generated from agricultural activities.As a result,circular solutions should concentrate on the farm and production end.Grow countries account for 37%of the global population and are undergoing rapid industri

211、alization to accommodate a growing middle class.This profile fits with middle-income countries,characterized by high population growth and rising incomes.The challenge is to ensure adequate nutrition that can be decoupled from mounting environmental pressures.A shift towards both circular production

212、 and consumption are the priorities.South Korea has made remarkable progress in food waste recovery by increasing the food waste recycling rate from 2%in 1995 to 95%by 2019.This was driven by a ban on landfilling food waste and a“pay-per-use”scheme costing families approximately US$6 per month on av

213、erage.57higher-income countries needs to be a shift away from over-consumption,lower-income countries still need to build an economic system that can satisfy their societys basic needs.55 There are three“types”of countries when it comes to potential circularity transformations:56ColdHubs is a small

214、business based in Nigeria and assists farmers and vendors to preserve their perishable products by providing access to solar-powered cold storage.The 24 operational services have saved 20,400 tons of food from spoilage while increasing household income for over 3,500 smallholders and reducing 462 tC

215、O2-e.58Global Bugs,a Thai business,produces crickets at a low cost and requires a fraction of the feed,water and an almost negligible amount of land compared to producing the same quantities of beef.In addition,insects offer a unique solution to food waste challenges by consuming low-value agricultu

216、ral waste.59Page 42Page 43Turning point:Feeding the world sustainablyThe turning point:the opportunity of changing course03Page 44Page 45Turning point:Feeding the world sustainablyFigure 3.1 Decomposition of change in food supply in 2070(kcal/person/day)Source:Deloitte analysis based on D.Climate mo

217、deling described in Appendix B.2024.For information,contact Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited.The food system serves a unique position in the global economy,fulfilling multiple objectives.60It needs to produce enough calories and nutrients for all,support access to healthy diets,and do so in an econo

218、mically viable way for producers.Its production is intertwined with the natural worldboth drawing on these resources as key inputs(e.g.,land and water)and impacting the natural environment.The food systems current path is not sustainable.While global calories increase(Figure 3.1a)in a business-as-us

219、ual scenario,current trends will see hunger persist and emissions increase(Figure 3.1b),causing warming to worsen alongside other environmental degradation.The”feeding the world sustainably”scenario considers how the implementation of the system-level solutions(Chapter 2)can help the food system bre

220、ak away from this path.A more sustainable food system increases food supply,producing an additional 626 kcal per person per day in low-income countries,while supporting emissions reductions.These system-level changes benefit the global economy,raising GDP by US$121 trillion from 2025 to 2070.The wor

221、ld can produce nearly 3,880 calories per person,per day,by 2070,an 11%increase on the business-as-usual scenario.This is largely driven by the increase in the supply and consumption of food in lower-income countries.The concentration of benefits to those regions increases over time,as vulnerable eco

222、nomies are able to avoid the worst impacts of climate change,and structural adjustments are made to integrate new and innovative agricultural practices.By 2070,only 8%of the additional calories produced are consumed in high-income countries.These results have important implications for the prevalenc

223、e of hunger and undernourishment.The regions that benefit the most in this scenario are those that have the highest rates of undernourishment.One-in-five of these extra calories in regions of the world where undernourishment occurs could support an additional 300 million of otherwise undernourished

224、people in 2070.The modeling framework shows that the system-level solutions implemented together could reduce global food prices by 16%,driven by a fall in the price of each major food group.The solutions modeled under this analysis highlight the productivity gains that can be made from investing in

225、 technology and innovation,as well as improving land management practices.Producing more with less is essential to relieving pressure on the environment and limiting global warming.Table 3.1 summarizes the contribution of each of the five proposed solutions to feeding the world more sustainably.3.1

226、What does it mean to feed the world sustainably?b)Percent change in global food system emissions relative to 2025 levels2050+57%+20%-39%-66%205020702070Business as usualFeeding the world Sustainably50%10%-30%-70%Figure 3.1 Producing more food with less impact on the climate a)Global food supply rela

227、tive to 2025 levels (kcal/person/day)2050205020702070+10%+13%+30%Business as usualFeeding the world Sustainably0%20%40%+17%Source:Deloitte analysis based on FAO and D.Climate modelling described in Appendix B.2024.For information,contact Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited.Cost of net-zero transitionAv

228、oided damagesfrom climate changeReducing emissions(net impact)Restoring natureleveraging natural capitalCircularity in the food system(e.g.,food and organic waste)Sustainablefood choices(e.g.behavioral changes and shift in diets)TOTALsustainably scenario,compared to business-as-usualAgricultural pro

229、ductivityfrom tech and innovationFeeding the world sustainably scenarioReducing emissionsfrom business-as-usual scenario to below 2CAdditional calories per person,per day+78+187+70+23+15+3730Page 46Page 47Turning point:Feeding the world sustainablySolutionTotal additional calories(trillion kcal)Redu

230、ction in food pricesAdditional calories(kcal/person/day)Relative contribution to overall improvement in“feeding the world”scenariochange from baseline in 2070 (%change from baseline in 2070)%change from baseline in 2070change from baseline in 2070%of total change 517(4.6%)8.2%18750%215(1.9%)3.4%7821

231、%194(1.7%)3.1%7019%64(0.6%)1.0%236%41(0.4%)0.6%154%Total1,031(9.2%)16.3%373100%Source:Deloitte analysis based on D.Climate modeling described in Appendix B.2024.For information,contact Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited.Table 3.1 Five solutions to feeding the world sustainablyh Global agricultural tot

232、al productivity growth has been 1.3%per annum between 1962 to 2020.After adjusting for historical climate change over the same period,the adjusted total productivity growth has been 1.1%per annum(Ortiz-Bobea et al 2021).In the business-as-usual scenario,agricultural total factor productivity is redu

233、ced through the impacts of future warming.Agricultural productivity growth above historical levels peaks in 2050 and is maintained thereafter.i These gains peak in 2050 and are maintained thereafter.Accelerating innovation and technology can help drive sustainable agricultural productivity growth.In

234、creased investment in research,development and extension(RD&E)accelerates agricultural productivity growth by 0.30 percentage points above“business-as-usual”rates.h By 2070,agricultural productivity is 13%higher in the“feeding the world sustainably”scenario.Contributing to reducing global emissions

235、and limiting warming to below 2C helps to reduce the physical damages of a“business-as-usual”path that is over 3C warmer by the end of the century.The global economy grows faster in a below 2C world.Protecting,restoring,and improving natural capital can help promote biodiversity and support key ecos

236、ystem functions critical to the agricultural sector.Increased investment in protecting,restoring and improving natural capital further accelerates agricultural productivity growth by 0.18 percentage points above “business-as-usual”rates.By 2070,agricultural productivity is 5%higher in the “feeding t

237、he world sustainably”scenario.Enhanced circularity of food waste lifts material efficiency of the food manufacturing sector gradually,reflecting interventions associated with doubling todays rates of circularity in the economy by 2032.61 This raises material efficiency up to 2.4%higher between 2035

238、and 2050.Consumer and dietary choices shift gradually over the next 25 years.Growth in demand for red meat is on average 0.55 percentage points lower each year,with compensatory increases in demand for plant-based foods.By 2070,global demand for cattle meat is 13%lower in the“feeding the world susta

239、inably”scenario.Page 48Page 49Turning point:Feeding the world sustainably3.2.1 Overall increase in food production and caloriesThese transformations will help enable the food system to become more productive with fewer costs to the natural world,limiting further environmental damages to the food sys

240、tem,while increasing global food supply and distribution.Modeling indicates that these food system changes will see global food production increase by 9.2%,relative to the business-as-usual scenarioequivalent to a US$22 trillion increase in the output in the food system between 2025 and 2070.In 2070

241、 alone,agricultural output is expected to be nearly US$1 trillion higher,which is equivalent to the current agricultural output of the US and India combined.62 This will lead to an additional 373 calories per person,per day,around the world.A more sustainable food system can increase calorie availab

242、ility,providing approximately 3,880 kcal per person,per day,by 2070around 11%more calories than the”business-as-usual”scenario.This includes an increase in the availability of macronutrients including carbohydrates,fats,and proteins.j Overall,protein consumption continues to grow,even as dietary pat

243、terns shift away from emissions-intensive protein sources.Globally,protein consumption increases to 10.4%above“business-as-usual”levels by 2070,with emissions-intensive protein sources being substituted with other meats,poultry,and legumes.Lower prices increase affordability of”healthier”diets,such

244、that people can access adequate calories composed of a mix of carbohydrates,fats and proteins.While D.Climate does not include a land-use model,separate land-use competition analysis finds that it is possible to feed a growing population sustainably while managing land-use demands for emissions redu

245、ction activities.633.2 Ensuring enough food for each person:Food production and consumption increasesBox 3.1 Land use changeTo help feed a growing population sustainably,minimizing the reliance on clearing additional land for agriculture(where this is not offset elsewhere)should be a priority.The wo

246、rld should focus on maintaining and making the best use of the current stock of land used for agriculture.Historically,increased demand for food has been met,in large part,by expanding the land used by the agricultural sector.Agricultural land use has increased four-fold since the beginning of the I

247、ndustrial Revolution.Between 1962 and 2010 alone,almost 500 million hectares(Mha)of forests and woody savannas were cleared for agriculture.64 The latest estimates suggest that almost half(46%)of the worlds habitable land is used for agriculture(crops,pastures and livestock).65 Looking ahead,scenari

248、os from the IPCC,consistent with warming above 3C,are associated with agricultural land use continuing to significantly expand.The baseline analyzed here would suggest an increase of agricultural land use by 645 Mhaan area that is twice the size of India.66 Over this period,350 Mha of forest cover c

249、ould be lost,which is the equivalent to almost two-thirds of the Amazon.67Although a low-carbon future and the challenges associated with feeding the world sustainably entail complex land use trade-offs,future land use changes to support emissions reduction activities do not necessarily imply that a

250、gricultural production is disrupted on a global scale.Contemporary land use competition analysis of a 1.5C climate stabilization scenario also shows that despite increased demand for land for emissions reduction activities such as nature-based solutions(carbon sinks in the form of woody biomass),bio

251、energy production,and wind and solar power generation,global land is sufficient to provide increased per person food production over the century,even without significant dietary changes.68 Although there is a marginal increase in land use for food production(1.5%)between 2015 and 2100,a larger propo

252、rtion of agricultural land incorporates nature-based solutions,and food production is increasingly decoupled from land use expansion.69 Instead,the agricultural system transforms to meet future food demand in more sustainable ways.While D.Climate does not explicitly model land use changes,improvemen

253、ts in agricultural output modeled as part of this analysis are a result of improvements in agricultural productivity.The volumes of implied production,which are increasing relative to the baseline,will likely have significant implications for land use.Although beyond the scope of this modeling,suppo

254、rting long-term food production by making better use of land dedicated to food production today should remain a significant focus of sustainability efforts.j Impact on availability of macronutrients is unavailable,as this data as not been mapped to GTAP sectors.Page 50Page 51Turning point:Feeding th

255、e world sustainablyPage 50Page 513.2.2 More affordable global foodAs farmers and food manufacturers become more productive by adopting technology and innovation,as well as practicing better land management,they are able to produce more at a lower cost.Breakthroughs in technology play a role,includin

256、g improvements in resilient crops and emissions-reducing feeds,alongside increased adoption and diffusion to low-income markets.Investments in monitoring and improving natural capital on productive land also contributes.Lower producer prices flow through the supply chain and end up reducing prices a

257、t retails stores and markets,where households typically purchase food.3.2.3 Increased volumes and value of production in large food producing countriesThe effects of actions to limit global warming to well below 2C and feed the world sustainably will differ around the world.Each region eventually be

258、nefits from a more sustainable global economy that avoids the worst physical damages associated with unchecked climate change.The“feeding the world sustainably”scenario sees food system output grow,an increase in economic activity and an uplift in the overall food availability for multiple regions.O

259、utput from the food system can be consumed domestically or traded between countries,which allows for equitable distribution of food around the world,particularly for countries that may not be large agricultural producers.Overall,global food prices are expected to decline 16%by 2070(Figure 3.2).A gre

260、ater global supply of food will shift overall prices down,while a gradual shift towards more sustainable diets will drive the changes in individual food commodities.Cattle meat will see the largest reduction in food prices,due to the changes in demand and diet preferences,namely,a switch to plant-ba

261、sed and alternative diets.Conversely,sugar sees one of the smallest price reductions.Improvements in food affordability are expected to disproportionately benefit lower-income households,as spending on food typically represents a bigger share of discretionary income.For large agricultural producers,

262、increased food system output not only means increased food availability in their countries,but also flow-on benefits to the rest of their economies(Table 3.2).Brazil,Indonesia and India see the largest percentage increase in food availability per person of the selection of large food producers.Inves

263、tment in research,development and extension(RD&E)leads to new technologies and lower costs of production that benefits each region under the“feeding the world sustainably”scenario.Investments in restoring nature vary in their impacts by region,but do not constrain the largest food producers which co

264、ntinue to grow.For much of the global economy,particularly beyond the food system,avoided climate damages enabled by the transition to net-zero supports significant productivity growth.Figure 3.2 World food price deviation (%relative to the business-as-usual scenario)Table 3.2 Selection of large foo

265、d-producing countries,ranked by the percentage increase in additional food calories supplied,food system output and GDP(deviation from business-as-usual scenario)Source:Deloitte analysis based on D.Climate modeling described in Appendix B.2024.For information,contact Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited

266、.Note:All values rounded.Source:Deloitte analysis based on D.Climate modeling described in Appendix B.2024.For information,contact Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited.RegionAdditional calories (kcal/person/day Additional food system output Additional GDP change from baseline in 2070 (%change from basel

267、ine in 2070)NPV,2025-2070 US$billionsNPV,2025-2070 US$billionsBrazil590(18.0%)1,00012,600 Indonesia430(14.7%)1,5909,300 India190(9.9%)2,20023,200China350(9.3%)3,84038,200 USA170(4.2%)3,7808,000 Europe Union and the UK100(2.7%)1,59013,9005%0%-5%-10%-15%-20%-25%-30%-35%20252030203520402045205020552060

268、20652070Range of modelled price reductions includes dairy,processed foods,other meat,fish,rice,sugar and fruit and vegetables.SugarCattleTotal16%Page 52Page 53Turning point:Feeding the world sustainablyPage 52Page 533.2.4 More calories in lower income countriesLow-income countries have the largest i

269、ncrease in food consumption per person,with half of all additional global calories being consumed in these countries.This translates to an average increase in consumption for these countries by 626 calories per person,per day in 2070(Figure 3.3).This is likely to significantly lower the risk of peop

270、le going hungry,as approximately one-third of undernourished people currently reside in low-income regions,70 and reflects improved global food equity by increasing supply for those who need it the most.The concentration of benefits to those regions increases over time,as global efforts to reduce em

271、issions result in vulnerable economies particularly benefiting from avoiding the worst impacts of climate damages,and structural adjustments are made to integrate new and innovative agricultural practices.Today,the world faces persistent undernourishment.The latest estimate shows that 730 million pe

272、ople,or 10%of the global population,are undernourished.While ongoing economic growth and development,particularly in Asia,continues to reduce the absolute number of people facing undernourishment,under current trends,the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations(FAO)projects that the w

273、orld will miss its target to eliminate hunger by 2030.71Extending the FAOs current outlook for the undernourished population,hunger would persist in the long-term under a“business-as-usual”scenario,but fall to around 6%of the global population in 2070.l The”feeding the world sustainably”scenario,by

274、contrast,sees the world with an extra 1,030 trillion calories in 2070.This is enough to support an additional 1.6 billion people in 2070,at the minimum daily requirements of around 1,800 daily calories per person.The modeling suggests almost one-in-five of those extra calories will be in regions of

275、the world where undernourishment occurs,enough to fully support an additional 300 million of otherwise undernourished people from those regions(Appendix C).This emphasizes how the interconnected nature of potential solutionsthe required decarbonization and transition of global food systemscan ultima

276、tely contribute to reducing rates of undernourishment.Calorie availability is an important aspect of food security but is one part of the challenge to reducing world hunger.By 2070,only 8%of the additional calories produced are consumed in high-income countries.Not only are low-income regions dispro

277、portionately affected by hunger,but their economies are also more reliant on food production as a source of employment and income.As such,these regions are highly exposed to climate risks and transition costs associated with decarbonizing the food production system.Limiting the damages associated wi

278、th climate change,coupled with productivity improvements in the food system,will likely drive significant economic gains in these regions,while enhancing food security.3.2.5 More calories will meaningfully contribute to a reduction in global hungerThe“feeding the world sustainably”scenario could sig

279、nificantly reduce global hunger by increasing the availability and affordability of food,particularly in low-income countries.Addressing undernourishment goes beyond just calories.It also involves ensuring access to micronutrient-rich foods that are essential for a healthy diet.While staple food suc

280、h as maize,wheat and rice provide the bulk of calories in low-income countries,they are often lacking micronutrients.72 Foods rich in micronutrients,including fruits,vegetables and animal products,are less accessible to low-income countries.Policy solutions can also lie within individual countries a

281、nd their social policies,which are beyond the scope of this report.3.3 A more productive global economyBy undertaking this transformation of the food system,the world economy could be larger by US$121 trillion between 2025 and 2070.m Relative to the”business-as-usual”scenario,on average,global GDP i

282、ncreases by US$1.7 trillion each year until 2070,with higher growth achieved post 2055once the bulk of the food system transformations have been achieved.In 2070,global GDP is US$16 trillion larger,which is equivalent to an almost 5%increase relative to business-as-usual.Lower-income countries,like

283、Sub-Saharan Africa,Southeast Asia,Oceania,and South America appear to experience the most significant increase in GDP under“feeding the world sustainably.”These could see a 12%boost in GDP resulting from transformations to the food system and increased supply of food.There is a modest reduction in G

284、DP in high-income countries relative to the business-as-usual scenario,but these economies are still growing.However,this reflects a more equal distribution of global resources.Figure 3.3 Additional food consumption by country-income group(kcal/person/day)group(kcal/person/day)Source:Deloitte analys

285、is based on D.Climate modeling described in Appendix B.2024.For information,contact Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited.01503004506007502030High incomeUpper-middle incomeLower-middle incomeLow income204020502070k Undernourishment is defined as the inability to obtain enough food to meet the minimum req

286、uired caloric intake.The“depth of food deficit”indicator provides the average number of calories missing from the diet of undernourished people to reach the minimum required caloric intake.This data was leveraged to estimate how much an improvement in the availability of calories could make to closi

287、ng the average food deficit gap in the“feeding the world sustainably”scenario relative to a baseline projection of undernourishment.l This analysis accounts for global population growth,which reaches 9.5 billion people by 2070 based on IPCC projections.m Expressed in net present value terms at 2%bet

288、ween 2025 and 2070.Page 54Sowing the seeds of change04Page 56Page 57Turning point:Feeding the world sustainably4.1 Enabling the system-level solutions requires coordinated action from todaySwift global action is needed to shift onto a path of feeding the world more sustainably.This section sets out

289、the scale of the short-term actions and investments needed to enable the system-level transition from each part of the food system.Feeding the world sustainably requires action across the food,climate and natural systems.From the local to the international level,each part of the economy has a role t

290、o play in enabling a more productive food system that is less harmful to the environment and contributes to reducing emissions to limit temperature rises to well below 2C.Chapter 2 highlighted several specific examples of progress within industries and countries across a range of interventions that

291、can help address the challenge of feeding the world sustainably.actors across multilateral organizations,private sector and philanthropies toward galvanizing innovation and action ahead of the 2025 Paris Nutrition for Growth Summit.Further updates to the National Biodiversity Strategies and Action P

292、lans(NBSAPs)to better reflect and operationalize critical food system pathways to achieve the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework,ahead of the Biodiversity COP16 in Cali,Colombia.754.1.1 Climate action plays a central roleThe long-term sustainability of the food system and its capacity to

293、 feed a growing population is fundamentally linked to the climate.While there is uncertainty around the pace and local impacts of warming,a business-as-usual pathway that sees warming increase by 3C will put significant strain on the productivity of the system.Deloitte has published several previous

294、 analyses of the economics of climate action:the Turning Point series,establishing the case for climate action across the economy,outlined Pathways to decarbonization and Financing the Green Energy Transition,identifying cross-cutting actions.This report builds on these bodies of work,by considering

295、 climate change and climate action as the context within which the food system transformation will take place.It is not,however,a detailed exposition of the systems decarbonization itself,which has been well covered recently.76The development of new and investable nationally determined contributions

296、(NDCs)for submission under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change At the international level,some notable initiatives have included:The UN Food Systems Summit(2021),which generated global momentum and collaboration towards systemwide transformation that is underpinned by sustainab

297、ility,equity and health.This momentum has continued,with the fourth summit planned for 2025 UN Food Systems Coordination Hub.73 The Apulia Food Systems Initiative(AFSI),launched by the G7 in June 2024,to develop systemic approaches to enhancing food security and nutrition.Building on the joint commi

298、tment announced two years priorto mobilize US$14 billion annually for food security AFSI aims to build resilient and productive food systems.74 This can enable both sustainability and enhanced access to adequate nutrition in the face of the increasing impacts of climate change,and can also mobilize

299、key(UNFCCC)by early 2025 are a critical next step.Increased commitments by corporations are also playing a significant role.Continued investment in climate technology and development is already bringing down the costs,particularly in the energy sector.Further work will be needed in the food system,t

300、he next frontier for climate technology,to achieve similar cost reductions in clean technologies and realize global net-zero emissions ambitions.Climate financing is critical to help hard-to-abate sectors reduce their emissions.The agrifood system currently receives 5%of all global climate financing

301、 for mitigation and adaptation across all sectors,despite contributing almost one-third of all GHG emissions.Climate financing to target reducing agrifood emissions will need to increase by 18 times-an average of US$260 billion per year-to shift food emissions on a pathway to net-zero.As it currentl

302、y stands,the majority of climate financing is directed toward other sectors such as renewable energy or low-carbon transportation,which receive 51%and 26%respectively.77 More investment in the food system is essential to accelerate its required structural transformation.Nature-based solutions can ha

303、ve dual climate and food-system enhancing benefits.These need to be rapidly adopted by farmers,mostly by mid-century,and in a way that maintains trends in crop yield improvements.78 As one component of nature-based solutions,climate finance for forests accounts for 1.5%(US$3.2 billion)of global publ

304、ic climate funding (US$256 billion),and 0.1%of total public and private land-sector funding in countries with high levels of deforestation($1,495 billion).79Page 58Page 59Turning point:Feeding the world sustainably4.2 How much would it cost?4.3 Next steps for each segment of the food systemThis anal

305、ysis focuses on what is required to help ensure the long-term sustainability of the food system and its capacity to feed the world.The question then arises,what would such a transformation cost?The World Bank estimates that investment in the food system needs to reach US$260 billion per year(equival

306、ent to 0.2%of global GDP in 2023)between now and 203080 to deliver actions that both put the world on a path to net-zero and are aligned to the broader sustainability of the food system.These actions include:Investments in improving natural capital increasing by up to US$37-142 billion per year,idea

307、lly financed through environmental markets;81 On-farm mitigation measures that can be implemented today,including climate-smart and regenerative practices,irrigation efficiency,organic and biofertilizer production,and expansions in diversified protein supplies that could attract US$52-66 billion per

308、 year;82 and A transition to circular systems,which will require some up-front investments of US$23-75 billion per year and promoting healthy diets would cost US$30-35 billion per year.83 Behavior change initiatives will likely have the lowest costs and these costs tend to vary significantly dependi

309、ng on the interventions,which would include a mixture of traceability and consumer information initiatives as well as educational and awareness.Mobilizing the financing and delivering the long-term sustainability solutions outlined above will involve each actor within the food value chain and requir

310、e action beyond spending alone.Technology and research actors will play a pivotal role in driving future improvements to productivity and yields,central to feeding the world sustainably.Not all the solutions needed to create net-zero food systems at scale exist yet,so breakthroughs in technology and

311、 cost reduction are critical to close the innovation gap.86 Digital farm management tools,new crop varieties feed supplements,and cost-effective measurement technologies are just some of the ways that innovation can optimize farm-level activity and create value chain traceability and transparency.In

312、 many regions,efforts to extend leading practice can move countries toward the production frontier,without compromising environmental outcomes.87 Increased investment in research and development wont be enough;extending and commercializing solutions that are fit-for-purpose across varied regions and

313、 sectors should be an increased point of focus.While it can be difficult to precisely estimate the global agricultural RD&E value across public and private sources,historical estimates suggest this has grown at around 2.8%per annum84.Between 2025 and 2030,this growth rate in annual investment in RD&

314、E will need to significantly accelerate to achieve the improvements in productivity presented here.Improving the productivity of the food system is a key pillar of long-term sustainability.4.2.1 Short-term actions to help address hunger today and support food security on a path to net-zero emissions

315、Separate from,but closely related to,this report is the shorter-term imperative to meeting Sustainable Development Goal(SDG)2,which aims to end global hunger by 2030.Estimates from similar modeling have found that the up-front investments to reduce hunger over the next six years,lifting 700 million

316、people out of hunger and malnutrition by 2030,is estimated to cost an additional US$93 billion annually.85Short-to medium-term actions to reduce emissions towards net-zero should also focus on minimizing transition costs and supporting food security on this path.Decoupling the global economy from gr

317、owth based on emissions will likely require substantial change in each sector of the economy.Actions and investment in the food system should balance these considerations and potential trade-offs during this transition.The food system value chain is incredibly varied in its structure,and a wide rang

318、e of actions will be needed within the value chain to adopt sustainable solutions.There are millions of farmers,many operating small-hold businesses.Globally,there are few processors and manufacturers,many with large multinational value chains.The largest 136 agri-food firms,generating more than US$

319、5.2 trillion of revenue,are committed to reducing emissions by 50%relative to 2022 by 2050,much of this through reductions on farms among their suppliers.88 These commitments,the actions that accompany these,and the implications this could have up and down the supply chain will be transformative for

320、 the sector.To align with Paris Agreement targets,these will also need to increase over the next five years.Collaboration across the supply chain will be essential,particularly between large and well-resourced processors with smaller supply chain operators upstream.The farming community is faced wit

321、h an increasing number of demands and requirements while having to deal with difficult and worsening farm economics and climate shocks.Expecting farmers to self-inform on the importance and technical knowledge of climate-smart agriculture is unrealistic.$260 billion2030The World Bankestimates a mini

322、mum investment increaseOF UP TOis required byn These investments are implicitly captured in the”feeding the world sustainably”scenario.The capital expenditure of firms is an economic decision taken to maximize profits,but it not differentiated into different“types”of expenditure(e.g.,investment in p

323、roperty versus climate technology or another other capital good).The outcomes of these investments are explicitly modeled as shocks.Page 60Page 61Turning point:Feeding the world sustainably4.4 The importance of acting now Adoption of technologies,such as traceability instruments,can not only help ac

324、tors manage their transformation journey through improved data and analytics,but can also increase transparency across the supply chain,ensuring actors are better positioned to collaborate toward a shared future.Policy makers and civil society will set a direction of travel for what sustainability c

325、ould mean across regions.Farmers and value-chain players should be supported by an enabling environment that incentivizes the transition to climate-smart agriculture.Policies that subsidize climate-smart practices,encourage private sector investment,and clarify messaging to consumers are likely to a

326、ccelerate the transition.89 Similarly,some practices within the food system value chain generate costs and benefits(including social and environmental)which are borne by otherswhether within the value chain,by producers,processors,distributors,or consumers,or society.These externalized costs and ben

327、efits are not typically reflected in market prices,which ultimately makes it harder to incentivize change and drive change-positive investment decisions.90 In aligning incentives towards sustainable,socially responsible,agriculture,it is important that the true costs and benefits generated by player

328、s across the value-chain are understood,measured and used to shape decisions around future policy and investment.This modeling has shown that feeding the world sustainably could mean,by 2070,feeding around 10 billion people by producing 40%more calories than it does today while limiting warming to w

329、ell below 2C and reducing the number of undernourished people by approximately 300 million.The recent worsening of hunger rates and increases in global food prices are an early indicator of the food system heading toward an unsustainable path.There are also several challenges to the food system that

330、 were not modeled as part of this analysis(e.g.,the impact of changing water availability and quality,invasive species and disease,geopolitical disruption)(Appendix B).These may require additional and separate solutions but,nevertheless,will likely impact the worlds capacity to feed itselffurther mo

331、tivating action today.Private sector actors,such as non-government organizations and other civil society,can help drive change by advocating for these reforms.Financial sector and other service providers will need to continue supporting farmers and offering products and services that encourage susta

332、inable investment choices.Diverse financial mechanisms can help provide farmers with the capital and risk management needed to adopt and sustain climate-smart practices.These include innovative,stackable finance and insurance products;private sector procurement guidelines and long-term purchase agre

333、ements;and carbon credits and other forms of ecosystem service payments.Expertise and knowledge transfer has always been a critical component of the food system.Service providers will continue to play a crucial role in spreading leading practices and socializing innovations,particularly where they are fit-for-purpose,across diverse landscapes.91 Page 62Page 63Turning point:Feeding the world sustai