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1、1 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2024Report title goes hereSubtitle hereChallenges,opportunities and trends to watch in six sectorsIndustry outlook 2025Our solutionsCountry AnalysisUnderstand the political,policy and economic outlook.Our Country Analysis service looks at the global dynamics

2、 that affect your organisation,enabling you to operate effectively and plan for the future.Financial RiskGain unparalleled insights into the global financial landscape.Combining EIUs market-leading data and country expertise,our rigorous risk-modelling framework enables you to accurately identify ri

3、sks to fiscal sustainability,currency and the banking sector.Operational RiskPlan effectively with EIUs expert analysis and data.From detailed country risk assessments to customisable risk matrices,our service provides you with the tools needed to confidently anticipate and mitigate risks to your op

4、erations.Speaker BureauStrengthen your strategy and executive knowledge.Book EIUs experts for virtual or in-person events,training sessions,or decision-making meetings.Our briefings offer independent insights on political,economic and policy trends affecting your organisation.Intelligence that moves

5、 you forwardEIU,part of The Economist Group,provides a forward-looking perspective on the global agenda.With over 75 years of expertise,it delivers political,economic and policy forecasts for 200 countries.EIUs insights,backed by a network of 400 analysts,help financial institutions,governments and

6、multinational corporations make informed decisions and navigate complex business environments.3 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 20243 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2024Contact us for more informationLondon Economist Intelligence The Adelphi 1-11 John Adam Street London WC2N 6HT Uni

7、ted KingdomTel:+44(0)20 7576 8000 E-mail:New YorkEconomist Intelligence 900 Third Avenue,16th Floor New York NY 10022 United StatesTel:+1 212 541 0500 E-mail:Hong Kong Economist Intelligence 1301 Cityplaza Four 12 Taikoo Wan Road Taikoo Shing Hong KongTel:+852 2585 3888 E-mail:Gurgaon Economist Inte

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9、rough our Country Analysis service.To arrange a demonstration or discuss the content and features,please contact us or visit .4 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2024Industry outlook 2025Challenges,opportunities and trends to watch in six sectorsContentsIndustry outlook 2025Automotive outlook

10、2025Consumer goods and retail outlook 2025Energy outlook 2025Finance outlook 2025Healthcare outlook 2025Technology and telecoms outlook 202551422303948565 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2024Industry outlook 2025Challenges,opportunities and trends to watch in six sectorsHopes that the world

11、will one day return to normal have been continually dashed since the covid-19 pandemic,and 2025 will be no different.Although working and travel patterns are normalising,the economic and political outlook remains uncertain.EIU forecasts that real GDP will grow by a subdued 2.6%in 2025,similar to 202

12、4 but slower than the average for the ten years before the pandemic.The US economy will slow as labour markets tighten,but Chinas will accelerate slightly,amid stimulus and reviving trade.Those of the EU and Japan will also tick up,but only smaller developing markets such as India will deliver signi

13、ficant growth.Falling inflation will allow monetary easing to continue.We expect the Federal Reserve(Fed,the US central bank)to cut interest rates by a further 50 basis points during 2025.We also expect prices for agricultural commodities and industrial raw materials to move in different directions

14、in 2025-26.Although agricultural prices will continue to trend downwards,prices for industrial raw materials will rise again,particularly for base metals that benefit from the green transition.As for energy commodities,prices will fall on average,but remain at risk from political shocks.Industries i

15、n 2025 Economic growth in 2025 will be modest,with real GDP increasing by 2.6%as developed economies slow.Inflation is expected to ease,allowing for further monetary easing.Prices for agricultural and energy commodities will fall,but those for industrial raw materials will rise.Geopolitical risks wi

16、ll persist amid wars in Ukraine and the Middle East,while rising trade barriers between the EU,the US and China will reshape supply chains.Climate change will increase geopolitical tensions.National climate pledges will be updated at COP30 in November 2025,but much will depend on US leadership.Inves

17、tment in technology,especially artificial intelligence(AI),will remain strong,but tech companies will face regulatory pressures,investor impatience and scrutiny over energy usage.Geopolitical tensions and trade barriers will force more shifts in supply chains,amid subdued business growth.6 The Econo

18、mist Intelligence Unit Limited 2024Industry outlook 2025Challenges,opportunities and trends to watch in six sectorsGeopolitical risks and trade barriers will continue to weigh on the outlook.Our baseline forecast assumes that another large-scale war will not break out in Asia or the Middle East.Howe

19、ver,the continued threat of geopolitical conflict,in addition to the continuing war in Ukraine,will lead to economic reconfiguration and policy divergence.The EU and the US are already raising barriers against Chinese exports in areas from automotive and technology to healthcare.Chinese retaliation

20、is likely to intensify in 2025 as rival blocs emerge across the world.These trends will reshape supply chains over 2025,and could upend our forecast of falling commodity prices and inflation.Climate change and the efforts to mitigate it will play into these geopolitical rifts.At COP30 in November 20

21、25 governments are due to update their national climate pledges(NDCs),but much will depend on US leadership.The debate over environmental,social and governance(ESG)reporting will Geopolitical shocks and climate change will remain the biggest risks%growth year on year20242025Source:EIU forecasts.Real

22、 GDP growth will slow in 2025 in most major marketsCopyright The Economist Intelligence Unit 2024.All rights reserved.IndiaChinaBrazilUKUSRussiaJapanGermanyWorld01234566.96.64.74.8321.11.42.71.73.61.20.21.10.10.92.62.677 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2024Industry outlook 2025Challenges,opp

23、ortunities and trends to watch in six sectorsintensify as regulations enforcing disclosure come into effect in the EU and elsewhere.EU climate regulations,due to come into force from 2026,will also have an international impact on trade by forcing multinational companies to monitor their supply chain

24、s.The resulting tensions will continue to affect investment into production and market entry,with companies taking advantage of government incentives to build out more flexible supply chains.Investment in technology,particularly artificial intelligence(AI),will also be strong as projects gather pace

25、.However,technology companies will face pressure from several directions as regulations tighten(particularly in Europe),investors become more impatient for profits and their energy usage comes under more scrutiny.Companies will need to navigate these new requirements,while also trying to reconfigure

26、 their supply chains and seek out areas of growth.Other 2025 forecasts for the six industries that EIU covers include the following.Energy:Fossil-fuel markets will continue to face geopolitical risks amid conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine,but investment into renewables will remain strong,part

27、icularly in China.Financial services:Falling interest rates will weigh on bank profit margins,leading to lower dividend payouts,but the Basel III endgame will be eased or delayed further.Consumer goods and retailing:Global retail volumes will expand by 2.2%,helped by disinflation,but regulations aro

28、und online retailing will tighten further,particularly for high-volume low-price Asian retailers such as Shein and Temu.Technology:More countries will start using satellite internet,but use cases will be limited to enterprise clientsmilitary and maritime.Amazons Kuiper will disrupt the market duopol

29、y of Starlink and EutelSat OneWeb.Automotive:After a difficult few years,annual new-vehicle sales will reach a record 97.2m units in 2025.We forecast that sales of new cars will rise by 2%,commercial vehicles by 4%and electric vehicles by 16%.Healthcare:Global healthcare spending will outpace inflat

30、ion,growing by 1.9%in real terms.The World Health Organisation will make climate change the focus of its 14th four-year general programme,which starts in 2025.8 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2024Industry outlook 2025Challenges,opportunities and trends to watch in six sectors201620172018201

31、9202020212022202320242025050100150200250300350400450Crude oilFood,feedstuff and beveragesIndustrial raw materialsForecastperiodWeighted index,1990=100Source:EIU.Copyright The Economist Intelligence Unit 2024.All rights reserved.Most commodity prices will fall in 2025,barring shocks9 The Economist In

32、telligence Unit Limited 2024Industry outlook 2025Challenges,opportunities and trends to watch in six sectorsRegulation in 2025:from tax to techA faltering tax deal,disputes over ESG and attempts to rein in big tech will dominate the year.As 2025 approaches,we examine three developments that will sha

33、pe the global regulatory landscape in the coming year.The OECD tax deal will remain hamstrungFor the OECD tax deal,which seeks to reallocate taxes to revenue-generating jurisdictions and establish a 15%global minimum tax,2025 will be a make or break year.Disagreements have continued among the 138 si

34、gnatories,particularly over the USs non-participation,prompting signatories to either move ahead with the accord on their own or abandon it altogether.Given our baseline forecast of a divided US Congress regardless of who wins the November 2024 presidential election,the chances of a US buy-in will r

35、emain extremely low(zero if the former Republican president,Donald Trump,wins).As a result,worldwide implementation of the OECD agreement will be near-impossible in 2025.This will set the stage for further trade proliferation next year,marked by signatories introducing their own digital services tax

36、es(which the tax deal sought Announced/intend to implementDraftedEnactedA 3%DSTon multinationaltechnology firmsin Canada willbe backdatedto 2022Austria,France,Italy,Spain andthe UK reacheda deal to levy DSTswithout trade threatsfrom the US until Pillar 1rules are implementedStatus of DST*Source:OECD

37、;KPMG;EIU.*Includes other similar direct taxes.Copyright The Economist Intelligence Unit 2024.All rights reserved.Nearly a quarter of OECD tax deal signatories have developed DSTs10 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2024Industry outlook 2025Challenges,opportunities and trends to watch in six s

38、ectorsto eliminate)and retaliatory US actions.Companies should follow these developments closely,as there is a significant risk of double taxation,driven by contradictory global tax standards.The EU will lead on ESG rules Environmental,social and governance(ESG)will be high on international firms ag

39、endas in 2025 as the EU sharpens its focus on sustainability reporting and disclosures.Starting in January,the Germany-based International Sustainability Standards Board will introduce mandatory sustainability reporting for companies,ensuring consistent disclosure of environmental and climate-relate

40、d risks.The Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive,which requires companies to align with EU sustainability goals,will also take effect at the start of 2025 for several large companies.On the other hand,the US Securities and Exchange Commissions rules requiring publicly listed companies in the

41、 US to report climate-related information(issued in March)will struggle to survive,particularly if Mr Trump returns to office.Implementation of the EUs Deforestation Regulation has also been delayed by one year until end-2025.The regulatory focus on big tech will intensifyAntitrust investigations wi

42、ll focus more on US technology giants in 2025,targeting practices that limit competition or harm consumer choice.Further enforcement and full implementation of the EUs Digital Markets Act(DMA),which aims to regulate large online platforms(“gatekeepers”)to ensure fair competition in digital markets,w

43、ill extend into next year as regulators assess the market impact of the law.Large tech companies will need to comply with restrictions on practices like self-preferencing and data combining without user consent.Similar progress will be made on the EUs Digital Services Act(DSA),which aims to make onl

44、ine platforms more accountable for illegal and harmful content.By 2025 the DSAs enforcement phase will include audits,compliance checks and penalties for violations by digital platforms.Similar regulations in other countries,such as the UKs Online Safety Act and Canadas Digital Charter Implementatio

45、n Act,are also expected to come into force by end-2025.11 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2024Industry outlook 2025Challenges,opportunities and trends to watch in six sectorsClimate in 2025:a missed deadlineGlobal emissions from fuel consumption will rise further,although temperatures could

46、fall from their highs of 2024.According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenarios,global carbon dioxide(CO2)emissions need to peak in 2025 in order to keep global warming at 1.5 C.We do not expect this to happen,but we do forecast that emissions growth will slow in 2025.We expect em

47、issions from fuel consumption to rise by 1.6%,compared with an estimated 1.7%increase in 2024.Growth will be driven by a rebound in oil demand in the US and continued growth in emissions in fast-growing emerging markets such as India,the Philippines,Vietnam and Saudi Arabia.Emissions growth in China

48、,the worlds biggest emitter,will slow from 2.8%to 2.1%as the installation of new renewable capacity,continued sluggish industrial growth and rapid take-up of electric vehicles(EVs)stifles oil consumption.However,the uncertain supply of hydropower and difficulties connecting renewable energy to the g

49、rid mean that Chinese emissions will still rise.Europes emissions will continue to decline,and will do so at an accelerating pace in Germany,the UK and France as renewable energy and EV sales reduce demand for coal and oil.India led major economies in emissions growth in 2024Estimated annual percent

50、 change in emissions from fuel combustion,2024Economies with annual emissions over 100 mtCO2e6420246810ArgentinaJapanSpainNetherlandsFranceAustraliaUSPolandItalySouth KoreaTurkeyNigeriaUKGermanyBrazilEgyptCanadaIranKuwaitUAESouth AfricaAlgeriaWorld averageKazakhstanRussiaMalaysiaTaiwanPakistanThaila

51、ndMexicoChinaIndonesiaSaudi ArabiaIraqPhilippinesVietnamIndiaSource:EIU.Copyright The Economist Intelligence Unit 2024.All rights reserved.12 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2024Industry outlook 2025Challenges,opportunities and trends to watch in six sectorsCOP30 in Brazil faces significant

52、risks The annual UN climate conference,COP30,which will be held in Brazil in November 2025,is when governments will have to update their national climate pledges(NDCs)under the Paris Agreement.The last scheduled round of new NDCs in 2021 led to significantly more ambitious targets,led by the then ne

53、w Biden administration in the US.However,since then support for green policies has started to slip amid domestic backlashes and concerns over food and energy security issues.Lower-income countries are also clamouring for more funding from rich nations to meet their climate commitments,a process that

54、 is proving contentious.Moreover,if Donald Trump wins the US election,as we expect,his administration will not co-operate with the NDC process.This is likely to discourage other countries from making new commitments.National pressure and technological change will keep the green transition going,but

55、global co-ordinated action will prove increasingly difficult.Physical risks will remain elevatedGlobal temperatures in 2025 are likely to fall from their record levels in 2024,as the El Nio phenomenon gives way to a likely La Nia,which generally produces a global cooling trend.However,temperatures w

56、ill remain exceptionally warm by historical standards,meaning that the risk of extreme Emissions increases in 2025 will come from Asia and the Middle East,declines will mostly come from EuropeForecast annual percent change in emissions from fuel combustion,2025Economies with annual emissions over 10

57、0 mtCO2e420246FranceJapanNetherlandsSpainUKItalyArgentinaGermanyAustraliaTurkeyPolandSouth KoreaCanadaBrazilEgyptMexicoUSSouth AfricaNigeriaTaiwanKazakhstanWorld averageIranRussiaAlgeriaUAEMalaysiaChinaIndonesiaThailandKuwaitPakistanSaudi ArabiaIraqVietnamIndiaPhilippinesSource:EIU.Copyright The Eco

58、nomist Intelligence Unit 2024.All rights reserved.13 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2024Industry outlook 2025Challenges,opportunities and trends to watch in six sectorsheat and wildfires remains elevated.La Nia generally coincides with higher levels of rainfall in most regions,suggesting th

59、at the risk of severe storms and flooding will be particularly elevated in 2025.Insurance markets are beginning to price in physical risks,leading to increased premia against natural catastrophes and further withdrawals of insurance providers altogether from disaster-prone markets.14 The Economist I

60、ntelligence Unit Limited 2024Industry outlook 2025Challenges,opportunities and trends to watch in six sectorsAutomotive outlook 2025 After a difficult few years,annual new-vehicle sales will reach a record 97.2m units in 2025.We forecast that sales of new cars will rise by 2%and of new commercial ve

61、hicles(CVs)by 4%.Electric vehicles(EVs)will remain the best-performing segment,increasing by about 16%to 19.4m units.Rising trade barriers will prevent faster market growth,fracturing supply chains and keeping EV prices high.Policymakers will continue with efforts to reduce emissions,congestion and

62、traffic,but will encounter increasing pushback from consumers.The outcome of the US presidential election will have important ramifications for the EV transition.Western automakers will remain torn between old and new technologies as they face growing competition from China.However,the profitability

63、 of EVs will improve as sales continue to soar and commodity prices ease.Automation and artificial intelligence(AI)will continue to be integrated into new vehicles,but self-driving cars remain some way off.After four years of adverse global events ranging from the covid-19 pandemic to military confl

64、icts in Ukraine and the Middle East,new-vehicle sales across the worlds 60 biggest markets will hit 97.2m units in 2025,surpassing their 2017 record.Growth in new-car sales was marginal in 2024,but in 2025 the market will expand by a healthier 2.3%year on yearowing largely to expansion in the EV mar

65、ket.Sales of new CVs,although slower than in 2024,will rise by a robust 4%year on year.Even so,growing trade tensions,strong competition from China and disputes over decarbonisation targets will pose risks for automotive makers.New-vehicle sales will reach new highs in 2025,but trade wars will compl

66、icate the transition to electric vehicles.15 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2024Industry outlook 2025Challenges,opportunities and trends to watch in six sectorsOwing to generous subsidy support from global policymakers aiming to engineer a“green recovery”,EVs had a good pandemic.Their share

67、 of new-car sales surged from a mere 3.4%(or 2.1m units)in 2019 to 21.8%(or 13.6m units)in 2023.After this initial jump,the EV market is now moderating as market growth shifts from early adopters to the less enthusiastic mainstream,and the higher base for comparison dampens headline growth.Even so,w

68、e expect EV sales to rise by 16.3%year on year in 2025 and surpass 19.4m units.Although direct EV subsidies have now been withdrawn in most countries,many governments still offer some tax relief to buyers,and are tightening EV targets for automakers.This,along with EV-makers own discounts,should sup

69、port the market;for example,policymakers in China phased out EV purchase subsidies in 2023,but still offer tax credits to motorists.Although many car producers benefit from regional incentives,they are also mandated to have EVs account for 20%of their fleet sales by 2025.China and the EU together co

70、nstitute more than 50%of global EV sales.EV sales will remain a bright spotNew-car sales will pick up in 2025%change,year on yearAsia-PacificLatin AmericaEuropeMiddle East and AfricaNorth AmericaWorld32101234560.21.21.25.82.342.85.63.50.90.62.3Source:EIU forecasts.20242025Copyright The Economist Int

71、elligence Unit 2024.All rights reserved.16 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2024Industry outlook 2025Challenges,opportunities and trends to watch in six sectorsPolicy delays will hamper emissions cutsAlthough policymakers globally are continuing their efforts to reduce transport emissions thr

72、ough caps and fuel-economy rules,progress will be patchy;for example in the US,emissions standards will depend on the outcome of the November 2024 elections,and in Australia,which is a laggard in this sphere,fuel-economy standards will only be introduced in 2025.Meanwhile Norway,the worlds most rapi

73、d adopter of EV technology,aims to be the first country to make all new cars emissions-free in 2025,but is likely to push this target back to 2027 for vans and 2030 for medium and heavy CVs(trucks and buses).This underlines the dearth of policy support for electrifying CVs,as well as challenges rela

74、ted to battery power and fast charging needed for freight transport.These challenges came to the fore in March this year,when EU policymakers pushed back the implementation of Euro 7 emission standards from mid-2025 to 2028,citing the need to strike“a balance between environmental goals and the vita

75、l interests of manufacturers”.However,the EU is pushing ahead with tighter carbon-dioxide(CO2)fleet targets;from January 1st 2025 the average emissions of European automakers new vehicle sales must be below 93.6 grams of CO2 per kilometre(g/km),15%lower than the 2021 baseline of 110.1 g/km.The Commi

76、ssion will remain under pressure next year to delay zero-CO2 emissions target beyond 2035.The commercial vehicle market will hold up well in 2025%change,year on yearAsia-PacificLatin AmericaEuropeMiddle East and AfricaNorth AmericaWorld202468102.42.64.39.10.23.92.05.68.54.35.64.0Source:EIU forecasts

77、.20242025Copyright The Economist Intelligence Unit 2024.All rights reserved.17 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2024Industry outlook 2025Challenges,opportunities and trends to watch in six sectorsTrade tensions will continue to split supply chainsThe EV transition will also be hampered by the

78、 ongoing geopolitical rivalry between China and the US and the EU,which is likely to intensify in 2025.Local-content requirements will tighten.The US is set to exclude cars made with Chinese supplies of critical minerals from the tax credits offered as buyer incentives under its 2022 Inflation Reduc

79、tion Act(IRA).The same restrictions already apply to EVs and batteries originating from all“foreign entities of concern”(FEOC)China,Russia,Iran and North Korea.China,meanwhile,has set targets for its automakers to purchase 25%of their semiconductors from local suppliers.Tariff barriers will rise as

80、Western policymakers try to prevent Chinese automakers from flooding their domestic markets with low-cost vehicles;already in May 2024 the Biden administration raised import tariffs on Chinese EVs from 50%to 100%,and on Chinese EV batteries from zero to 25%.Canada followed suit in August 2024.In Jul

81、y the EU concluded its months-long investigation into Chinese EV subsidies by imposing provisional duties of up to 45%on imported Chinese EVs,on top of its standard 10%import duty.A final vote is due in November;if approved,the tariffs will increase costs considerably for all EV-makersChinese and We

82、stern alikewith production operations in China in 2025.Chinas retaliation is likely to focus on tariffs for agricultural products,but could also include export restrictions on critical minerals needed for EVs.In such a global economic environment,we expect automakers to face volatile input costs,esp

83、ecially for EVs.Western and Chinese carmakers will also be forced to diversify their supply chains,either by setting up new production plants for cars or components,or by circumventing the tariffs through existing trade agreements with third-party countries.All in all,the automotive supply chain wil

84、l continue to be elongated and at further risk of geopolitical fissures.18 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2024Industry outlook 2025Challenges,opportunities and trends to watch in six sectorsIncreased competition but greater EV profitability%change,year on year20242025Asia-PacificLatin Ameri

85、caEuropeMiddle East and AfricaNorth AmericaWorld05010015020025030038341955326302885832262416Source:International Energy Agency;EIU forecasts.Copyright The Economist Intelligence Unit 2024.All rights reserved.Growth in new EV registrations will slow further in 2025These trends pose a huge challenge f

86、or carmakers as supply chains fracture and costs multiply.Foreign carmakers in China,including Germanys Volkswagen,will continue to see their Chinese market share tumble in 2025 and beyond.Meanwhile,Chinas EV-makers will try to increase exports despite rising trade barriers.BYD,now the worlds bigges

87、t EV-maker ahead of Tesla(US),aims to sell 1m models outside China next year,helped by new plants in Brazil and Hungary.As competition intensifies,several automakers will miss the hefty targets that they set to increase the share of EVs in their sales.For example Volvo Cars(Sweden-based,but owned by

88、 Chinas Geely)aimed to have EVs to make up half of its vehicle sales by 2025,but had achieved just 16%in full-year 2023.Despite these challenges,EVs are on the path to profitability.Tesla has been profitable since 2019,and 2025 may well be the year when it is joined by legacy automakers.Back in 2022

89、 the finance head of BMW(Germany)said that the profitability of the premium carmakers EVs would exceed that of fossil-fuel cars in 2025.Although this milestone has now been pushed to 2026,strong growth in global EV sales,combined with lower prices for commodities such as lithium,could mark a turning

90、 point;General Motors(US)and Stellantis(Netherlands)say that they are on track to become profitable on EVs by end-2024.Even so,EVs will remain less profitable than internal combustion engine vehicles,with the investment needed for the EV transition burdening many carmakers finances in 2025.19 The Ec

91、onomist Intelligence Unit Limited 2024Industry outlook 2025Challenges,opportunities and trends to watch in six sectorsWhat to watchCity limits:Governments across the world are trying to reduce traffic and emissions in urban areas.More cities across the globe will impose zero-emission zones,with Stoc

92、kholm,Swedens capital,becoming the first to ban fossil-fuel guzzlers from its centre.In-car subscriptions:As in-car tech develops,carmakers are trying to get drivers to pay monthly for features such as smartphone integration,assisted driving and in-car climate control.The new A3 model from Audi(Germ

93、any),set to launch in 2025,will offer subscriptions from one month to three years.Mercedes Benz and Volkswagen(also both of Germany)will seek subs for heated seats,advanced self-driving features and even additional EV power;whether drivers will be willing to pay for them is another question.AI integ

94、ration:In 2025 Mercedes Benz will introduce an AI-based“super assistant”in every car that it makes,while the new EV3 model from Kia(South Korea)will feature a new voice assistant based on ChatGPT.Volkswagen has already integrated ChatGPT into its IDA voice assistant,helping drivers to control infota

95、inment,navigation and air conditioning,or to answer basic questions.BMW(Germany)is testing a personal assistant powered by the Alexa large language model(LLM),which can explain vehicle features.Country AnalysisGain insight into a countrys political,policy and economic outlook with our award-winning

96、forecasts,analysis and data.EVsSupply chainsICE vehiclesAutomation Source:EIU.EIUs weather forecast for automotive businesses in 202520 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2024Industry outlook 2025Challenges,opportunities and trends to watch in six sectorsUS election:the impact on automotiveTrum

97、p:In his first term,Donald Trump reversed Obama-era emissions targets and fuel-economy standards.We expect similar policies in his second term to be tempered by his influence of Elon Musk,Teslas founder and now a key Trump supporter.In his campaign speeches,Mr Trump has revealed plans to revoke part

98、s of the IRA,which contains EV subsidies and tax breaks,as well as incentives for renewable energy.He has also criticised government spending on EV charging networks.Although he has expressed some support for EV sales,he is also likely to roll back the Biden administrations target to ban sales of fo

99、ssil-fuel vehicles by 2035,although this target is not enshrined in legislation.All in all,recent analysis from Carbon Brief,a UK-based climate-advocacy group,estimates that a victory for Mr Trump in the November presidential election could lead to an additional 4bn tonnes of US emissions by 2030 co

100、mpared with the plans of the incumbent president,Joe Biden.This means that the US would miss its global climate pledge under the Paris Agreement to cut emissions by 50-52%below 2005 levels by 2030.Harris:The Democratic challenger and current vice-president,Kamala Harris,has been a strong proponent o

101、f the green transition.Ms Harris is likely to extend the current administrations policies on EVs by implementing stricter emissions and fuel economy standards.She will also continue to focus on reducing Chinese dominance in important sectors such as EVs,autonomous cars,data security and AI.We would

102、expect a further uptick in US EV sales in the event of a Harris victory,as well as stronger investment into EV charging infrastructure,and domestic EV and battery production.21 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2024Industry outlook 2025Challenges,opportunities and trends to watch in six sector

103、sAna oversees The Economist Intelligence Units industry subscription services in London,managing websites,reports,data and forecasts across six industry sectors and acting as lead analyst for our healthcare and automotive analysis.Ana also works closely with clients in those two sectors,particularly

104、 on projects related to value-based health and healthcare policymaking.Ana is an experienced analyst who has previously spent time specialising in global economic and business development as well as analysis of healthcare policy.She has a particular interest in the transition countries of Eastern Eu

105、rope.Meet the EIU teamAna NichollsDirector of industry analysisSpecialist subjects Automotive,Business environment,HealthcareLanguages English,FrenchLocation LondonArushi is an analyst in The Economist Intelligence Units Industry Briefing team,with particular expertise in the automotive industry.In

106、this role,Arushi is responsible for producing industry-related macroeconomic forecasts for various markets across the globe.Arushi is also an experienced writer,having previously worked for The EIUs Competitor Intelligence product as a corporate analyst.She has spent time speacialising in automakers

107、 global strategy,while also contributing to coverage of industry trends.Prior to this,Arushi had a stint as a corporate reporter for an Indian financial daily.Arushi KotechaAnalystSpecialist subjects Macroeconomics,Automotive,Supply chains,Manufacturing,Electric Vehicles,Corporate Journalism riskLan

108、guages English,French,Hindi,GujaratiLocation Gurgaon,India22 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2024Industry outlook 2025Challenges,opportunities and trends to watch in six sectors Globally retail volumes will expand by 2.2%,helped by disinflation,but consumer sentiment will take time to recove

109、r from several years of high inflation.Amid trade tensions and an economic slowdown,China will no longer be the star of the show in Asia.Its retail market will be outpaced by that of India,albeit from a smaller base.Regulatory roadblocks,such as a crackdown on de minimis exemptions to trade tariffs,

110、will add to the worries of online retailers,especially in China.Expenditure on furniture and white goods will rise only slowly as housing markets falter in developed countries;spending growth for leisure,entertainment and tourism will be stronger.Consumer goods and retail outlook 2025We expect globa

111、l retail sales to expand by 2.2%in real(or volume)terms in 2025,the fastest rate since 2021.This recovery will be underpinned by slowing inflation,which we forecast will reach its lowest level since 2020.With household savings in most countries remaining below pre-pandemic levels,however,consumer co

112、nfidence will be slow to recover.For businesses,slower demand from price-sensitive consumers has checked their pricing powers.In last years report,we accurately forecast that physical stores and discount retailers would fare better,following a difficult pandemic,but persistently high inflation has p

113、rompted low-income households in major markets to cut back on spending,affecting sales for discounters and quick-service restaurants.For example,Disinflation will boost retail volumes Retail sales will pick up in 2025,but regulatory roadblocks and low consumer confidence will weigh on markets.23 The

114、 Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2024Industry outlook 2025Challenges,opportunities and trends to watch in six sectorsin March 2024 Dollar Tree,a US discount chain,announced plans to cut 1,000 stores in the US in 2024-25,and in the second quarter McDonalds,a US fast-food chain,reported its first

115、decline in global sales since 2020.The retail growth landscape will vary significantly according to region.Asian and the Gulf countries are expected to outpace other regions in retail volume growth,driven by large,young consumer bases with rising incomes,urbanisation and a surge in online shopping.8

116、642024USMCAEuropeAsia-PacificSouth AmericaMEA20242025Source:EIU.Asia will lead global retail sales growth,and South America will rebound in 2025Retail sales volume growth rate,%Copyright The Economist Intelligence Unit 2024.All rights reserved.While Chinese retail slows,India offers a silver liningR

117、eal growth in retail sales in Asia will outpace that of other regions,but the star of the show will not be China.The worlds second-largest consumer market is expected to grow by nearly 4%year on year in real terms in 2025the slowest rate since 2022,and markedly so compared with the historical trend(

118、averaging 7%in 2015-19).Income shocks from the prolonged lockdowns,a property market downturn,job market weakness and an ageing population have all contributed to lasting pessimism in the market.Meanwhile,we expect growth to average about 5%year on year in India(down from 5.3%in 2015-19).For busines

119、ses,the opportunities will be twofold.At the lower end of the market,fast-moving consumer goods makers such as PepsiCo and P&G(US)are banking on increased spending by the countrys sizeable rural population(65%of the total)to offset some of the slowdown in China.Recent economic data suggest a strong

120、propensity among this population to spend on packaged goods,cosmetics,toiletries and household goods.24 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2024Industry outlook 2025Challenges,opportunities and trends to watch in six sectorsA global crackdown on imported low-value goods is under wayNew duties an

121、d thresholds are being rolled out mainly by markets with strong trade ties with ChinaTurkeyUSIndonesiaThailandMalaysiaMexicoEUSouth AfricaBrazilCountryAction on imported goodsImplementationSource:Official data from respective countries;EIU.Copyright The Economist Intelligence Unit 2024.All rights re

122、served.De minimis reduced from 150(US$166)to 30 for online goods,customs tax rate raised to 60%for non-EU countries Removing textiles,apparel and footwear(among other items)from the US$800 de minimis exemption Proposed duties of 100-200%on imports of clothing,ceramics and footwear 7%VAT on imported

123、low-value goods(less than THB1,500,or US$41)10%tax on most imported low-value goods sold online Raised tariffs on imported apparel and footwear from countries with which it has no free trade agreements,including China Proposed scrapping the 150 de minims threshold Introduced VAT on all imported clot

124、hing items 20%tax on cross-border purchases up to US$50 Likely to be passed end-2024Proposed in 2024,no set date at presentTo be in force between July and December 2024January 2024April 2024-April 2026Proposed in 2024,no set date at presentSeptember 2024July 2024August 2024 Higher up the spectrum,wi

125、th a steady increase in the number of high-income consumers,the number of households with net financial wealth above US$1m is on track to more than double from the 2021 level to exceed 234,000 in 2025.More of these consumers are also travelling internationally,and they now constitute key tourist gro

126、ups for international hospitality and retail businesses,amid a slower revival in outbound travel in China.25 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2024Industry outlook 2025Challenges,opportunities and trends to watch in six sectorsA crackdown on de minimis exemptions will strain tradeHousing unaff

127、ordability will hurt sales of furniture and whitegoodsOnline retail will not escape the slowdown in 2025we expect it to grow in line with overall retail markets,meaning that its share of sales will remain steady at 16%.Regulatory crackdowns around the world will be another setback,particularly those

128、 aimed at two Chinese online sellers,Shein and Temu;both retailers have rapidly expanded their global market share with their low prices since the pandemic,but are now under attack from regulators.In line with our forecasts,in late September the Biden administration in the US proposed an executive a

129、ction to curb“unfair competition”from Chinese retailers that would leverage the de minimis loophole.The new rules,which are likely to be implemented in 2025,will exclude apparel and other products(mainly sold by Shein and Temu)from the tariff exemption,increasing their prices for US consumers.The nu

130、mber of de minimis shipments in the US has surged from 637m in 2020 to 1bn in 2023.The USs move will have implications for cross-border online shopping,accelerating a global shift towards restricting low-value imports.Several economies have already taken action to protect domestic players,which is l

131、ikely to lead to increased costs of cross-border online sales,when consumers are already spending cautiously.This will weigh on sales of Chinese retailers and pose logistical challenges for others;for example Nike has suspended cross-border online sales to Turkey because of the import duty revisions

132、.As well as slowing online sales growth,these regulatory moves may encourage offline sales in the medium term,as the absence of the tax incentive may persuade many non-Chinese brands to increase their inventory and physical presence in foreign markets.Trends across consumer spending categories will

133、continue to evolve in 2025.Among the main categories,household goods and services will continue to show the slowest growth.Housing prices started rising during the pandemic as people moved away from cities,and remain high across most of the developed world,fuelled partly by immigration and tourism.E

134、ven if affordability improves in 2025,it will take a while for sales to pick up.In countries such as Canada and Australia,housing stocks are at record lows,despite government efforts to encourage house-building.26 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2024Industry outlook 2025Challenges,opportunit

135、ies and trends to watch in six sectorsJunk food:Several countries will take steps to reduce junk food consumption in 2025 in an effort to address rising obesity rates.The UK plans to ban television advertisements for junk food before 9 pm,and on online ads for products that have high fat,sugar and s

136、alt content from October 1st 2025.Norway is expected to announce a similar ban,which would come into effect in 2025.Other governments will introduce taxes to discourage consumption while also increasing tax revenue.Slovakia will impose a sugar tax from January,and Vietnam is expected to pass a regul

137、ation to tax soft drinks that contain more than 5g of sugar per 100 ml.EU travel rules:After much delay,the European Travel Information and Authorisation System(ETIAS)will come into effect from mid-2025.After that date travellers from non-EU countries that do not currently require a visa to enter th

138、e EU will have to apply for travel authorisation before entry.The authorisation,which will cost 7 for those who are not exempt,will apply to around 1.4bn tourists a year from countries including the UK,Australia and the US.Green trade crackdown:New regulations will affect global trade.Low carbon tec

139、hnology from China will face higher tariffs and other What to watch With home sales being a major driver of consumer expenditure on household goods,including furniture and white goods,we expect spending on these items to be subdued in 2025.Inflation-struck consumers are likely to prioritise spending

140、 on essentials,as well as leisure and entertainment activities,over other discretionary goods such as clothing.Spending on consumer services such as travel,recreation and culture activities have fared well in the past year,and will continue to do so into 2025.2020202120222023202420251001101201301401

141、50160170180Source:EIU.Hotels&restaurantsFood,beverages&tobaccoClothing&footwearHousehold goods&servicesLeisure&educationHousing&household fuelsHotels&restaurantsFood,beverages&tobaccoClothing&footwearHousehold goods&servicesLeisure&educationHousing&household fuelsConsumer spending on household goods

142、&furniture will be sluggishGlobal consumer spending in US$,2020=100Copyright The Economist Intelligence Unit 2024.All rights reserved.27 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2024Industry outlook 2025Challenges,opportunities and trends to watch in six sectorstrade barriers when exporting to the US

143、 and EU during 2025.Companies trading with the EU will also have to prepare for implementation of other supply-chain regulations from 2026.The EU Deforestation Regulation(EUDR),which has been delayed by a year until December 2025,will require exporters of some agricultural products to verify the lan

144、d they have used was not acquired through deforestation.At the end of the year,the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism(CBAM)will end its transition period with duties levied on the carbon content of six energy-intensive industrial products from January 2026.Household goodsTravel and servicesOnline

145、 retailOffline retailSource:EIU.EIUs weather forecast for consumer goods businesses in 202528 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2024Industry outlook 2025Challenges,opportunities and trends to watch in six sectorsUS election:the impact on consumer goods and retailingTrump:Regardless of the outc

146、ome of Novembers presidential election,trade restrictions with China will be tightened.However,a victory for Donald Trump,the Republican candidate and former president,would result in more wide-ranging trade barriers for China,as well as allied countries.Mr Trumps plans to impose a blanket tariff of

147、 10%on all US imports would be inflationary for US consumers,considering that food and other low-value consumer goods account for over a third of the USs total goods imports.Such blanket tariffs would not only affect Chinese businesses,but also other major trading partners and US allies,including Eu

148、ropean luxury businesses,French winemakers and Scottish whisky distilleries.Mr Trumps efforts to curb immigration will also tighten labour markets and probably raise wages,especially in retail,hospitality and agriculture,which tend to hire more foreign-born workers.Harris:The vice-president and Demo

149、crat candidate,Kamala Harris,is expected to maintain existing tariffs on China and put further restrictions selectively on strategic sectors.She is also likely to uphold the Inflation Reduction Act,which encourages green technology and smart farming initiatives.Her platform has a strong focus on the

150、 middle class;she plans to put in place cost-of-living controls and boost affordability of housing by building 3m homes and offering financial support to first-time home buyers.This would boost consumer spending on household goods and furniture,a category that is closely tied to home sales,and would

151、 manage overall inflation and consumers purchasing power.However,her ability to pass this proposal through what is likely to be a divided Congress remains to be seen.A similar fate may await her plans to crack down on grocery prices,another thorn in the side of the American consumer.Country Analysis

152、Gain insight into a countrys political,policy and economic outlook with our award-winning forecasts,analysis and data.29 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2024Industry outlook 2025Challenges,opportunities and trends to watch in six sectorsMeet the EIU teamWith over a decade of experience,Barsa

153、li is an industry expert and a frequent speaker on geopolitical and macroeconomic trends and their implications on consumers and businesses.Leveraging EIUs quantitative and qualitative forecasts,she helps clients identify opportunities and challenges relevant to their sectors.Barsali is Deputy Direc

154、tor of Industry Research,leading a global in shaping EIUs in-house views on global topics concerning a range of businesses.She is the lead analyst for the consumer and retail sector and the Global Liveability Index.Barsali BhattacharyyaDeputy Director,IndustrySpecialist subjects Corporate advisory,c

155、onsumer&retail trends,technology,e-commerce,tourism,business risks and opportunitiesLanguages English,Hindi,BengaliLocation Gurgaon,IndiaAna oversees The Economist Intelligence Units industry subscription services in London,managing websites,reports,data and forecasts across six industry sectors and

156、 acting as lead analyst for our healthcare and automotive analysis.Ana also works closely with clients in those two sectors,particularly on projects related to value-based health and healthcare policymaking.Ana is an experienced analyst who has previously spent time specialising in global economic a

157、nd business development as well as analysis of healthcare policy.She has a particular interest in the transition countries of Eastern Europe.Ana NichollsDirector of industry analysisSpecialist subjects Automotive,Business environment,HealthcareLanguages English,FrenchLocation London30 The Economist

158、Intelligence Unit Limited 2024Industry outlook 2025Challenges,opportunities and trends to watch in six sectors Low economic growth will limit increases in global energy consumption to just 1.6%,with Europes demand particularly subdued.More than 250 GW of combined solar and wind capacity will be inst

159、alled in 2025,much of it in China,as governments look to cut emissions and boost energy security.Demand for oil,gas and coal will accelerate in 2025,but with supplies also expanding,prices will moderate.Energy markets will continue to face geopolitical risks amid conflicts in the Middle East and Ukr

160、aine.Energy outlook 2025Energy markets are bracing for yet another year of geopolitical turbulence.Oil and gas prices will remain highly volatile with the ongoing war in the Middle East.The increasing risk that the conflict expands to Iran and affects oil facilities there,although not our current fo

161、recast,is driving a surge in oil pricesIran is a large oil producer,with output of about 4m barrels/day.Furthermore,uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the US presidential election is adding nervousness to energy markets,given the significant implications for US and global energy policies.However

162、,a bearish sentiment will largely drive energy markets in 2025.After a sluggish 2024 and amid stuttering growth in the global economy,we expect global energy demand to decelerate further(in kilotonnes of oil equivalent),to just 1.6%.Developing economies,mainly in Asia but also in Latin America,the M

163、iddle East and Africa,will continue to be the main engines of growth,as their economies will surge and the decoupling of economic development and energy consumption has yet to happen there.Developed countries will show little,if any growth in energy consumption.This slowdown will be particularly acu

164、te in Europe,where we expect energy demand to be static in 2025 and decline in 2026 amid timid economic growth.Demand will be pulled down by the continued rollout of the ambitious energy-saving measures put in place in 2022,during the energy crisis triggered by Russias invasion of Ukraine.In the Glo

165、bal energy demand will slow and prices will fall,barring an escalation in geopolitical risks.31 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2024Industry outlook 2025Challenges,opportunities and trends to watch in six sectorsUS,we expect energy consumption to rise more rapidly if Donald Trump is elected

166、president as emissions standards and other environmental regulations will be watered down.However,an administration led by Kamala Harris,the democratic party candidate,would continue with energy efficiency and transition policies,which will negatively affect energy consumption.The adoption of renewa

167、bles will maintain momentumGlobalAsiaUSMCAEuropeSouth AmericaMiddle East and AfricaGlobalAsiaUSMCAEuropeSouth AmericaMiddle East and AfricaGlobal energy demand growth will decelerate in 2025Source:EIU.%change year on yearCopyright The Economist Intelligence Unit 2024.All rights reserved.GlobalAsiaUS

168、MCAEuropeSouth AmericaMiddle East and AfricaGlobalAsiaUSMCAEuropeSouth AmericaMiddle East and Africa20242025202420252024202520242025012340 0.5 11.5 2 2.5 3 3.5412108 6 4 2 0 21 0.500.5 11.5 22.5 314Total energy demandOil demandCoal demandGas demandRenewables capacity will continue to rise strongly i

169、n 2025,supported by falling costs and government policies.Concerns about fossil-fuel supply,which have risen since the onset of the war in Ukraine and the Israel-Hamas conflict,mean that the deployment of renewables is viewed by governments as a way to bolster energy security.Many will therefore con

170、tinue with incentives and policies to boost investment in the sector.We forecast that more than 250 GW of combined solar and wind capacity will be installed in 202532 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2024Industry outlook 2025Challenges,opportunities and trends to watch in six sectors2023 2024

171、 2025 20262027 2028 2029 20302031 2032 203302,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,000CoalGasSolarWindHydroNuclearSource:EIU.Wind and solar are taking overPower generation by source;GWhCopyright The Economist Intelligence Unit 2024.All rights reserved.Moderating oil prices will support demand growthan impress

172、ive figure in historical terms,albeit lower than the record high set in 2023.Most of this capacity will be installed in China,which is a major source,as well as the main destination,of investment into renewables.Investment into solar panel production will be directed to other countries as trade barr

173、iers increase.However,not all is bright for renewables,as there are many risks.Inflation,supply-chain bottlenecks and high interest rates are all hitting the renewable energy sector,but the biggest barrier is the lack of grid infrastructure.Prices of fossil fuels are coming down from their highs in

174、2022 and 2024,which will boost demand.However,after their recent weakness,we expect crude oil prices to bounce back to average more than US$77/barrel(dated Brent Blend)in 2025.Based on these forecasts,we expect global oil demand growth to accelerate in 2025,but to slow again in 2026.Oil consumption

175、has already peaked in Europe,and it will peak by the end of the decade in North America(or even earlier if Ms Harris becomes the US president).In neither of these regions has demand recovered to 2019 levels.However,oil consumption will continue to grow beyond 2033(the end of our forecast period)in t

176、he Middle East,Africa and South America.33 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2024Industry outlook 2025Challenges,opportunities and trends to watch in six sectorsGas prices will continue to declineChange in demand,mtoe1005005010015020020232024202520262027202820292030203120322033OilGasCoalSource

177、:EIU.Global coal and oil demand are set to peak within the next ten years,but gas consumption will remain strongCopyright The Economist Intelligence Unit 2024.All rights reserved.Oil demand in China will peak by the end of the decade as the country increasingly adopts electric vehicles(EVs).India wi

178、ll then become the main driver of global demand growth,owing to its growing population,higher purchasing power and rapid economic development,which will result in greater penetration of passenger cars,freight transport and air travel.This,in addition to a low penetration of EVs(we forecast that they

179、 will make up only 7%of new-car sales by 2028),will lift oil demand.On the supply side,we expect global oil production to rise moderately in 2025.In June OPEC+announced that lower 2024 production quotas agreed in mid-2023 would be extended to end-2025.Additional voluntary cuts agreed by a core group

180、 of members,led by Saudi Arabia,were recently extended to end-November,to be phased out incrementally between December 2024 and November 2025.However,we estimate that production in the US,Brazil and Guyana will continue surging,putting downward pressure on oil prices.Natural gas prices in Europe wil

181、l continue to trend downwards in 2025 amid weaker demand.After recovering in 2024,we expect that gas demand in Europe will decline again in 2025,mainly owing to surging power generation from renewables.Although new import 34 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2024Industry outlook 2025Challenges

182、,opportunities and trends to watch in six sectorsEnergy markets will continue to face geopolitical risksWhat to watchNuclear power:The nuclear renaissance in the Western world could take shape in 2025,mainly driven by the need for clean and reliable power from new technologies such as data centres,A

183、I and more sophisticated computing systems.After many countries signed a declaration at COP28 to triple nuclear power capacity by 2050,Azerbaijan,the host of the upcoming COP29,has expressed its aim to discuss the expansion of nuclear energy.In September 2024 Microsoft,a software company,signed a co

184、ntract with Constellation Energy to restart the idled Three Mile Island nuclear plant in Pennsylvania,US,to supply its increasing electricity needs.Solar profits:Solar panel prices hit a record low in 2024,driven by overcapacity in China,which produces 80%of global supply.However,geopolitical tensio

185、ns capacity for liquefied natural gas(LNG)is coming online,mainly in Germany,we expect that limited supply availability will continue putting a lid on gas demand expansion in the continent,restraining investment in the sector.We forecast that gas consumption will continue surging almost everywhere e

186、lse,mainly at the expense of reduced coal consumption.Only in Asia,where electricity consumption is rising rapidly,will coal consumption continue increasing,albeit at a declining rate.As renewables surge there,we forecast that Chinas coal demand will peak soon,although this will depend on climate co

187、nditions,as a severe drought will send coal-fired power generation surging to replace the lost hydropower output.This will make India the main driver of global coal consumption(India does not have plans to add gas-fired power generation capacity).Conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine,combined wit

188、h concerns about growth in China and the US,will put a floor under oil prices in 2025,and also prompt some caution over investment in the energy sector.Moreover,cyber-warfareincluding attacks on energy infrastructurewill remain a threat to the sector,particularly in states that are embroiled in a br

189、oader military campaign.35 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2024Industry outlook 2025Challenges,opportunities and trends to watch in six sectorscould influence price movements in 2025.The gradual phase-out of Chinese government subsidies,combined with adverse tariffs in major export markets,c

190、ould squeeze manufacturers profit margins,which are mostly already razor-thin.Many Chinese firms that set up factories in ASEAN-4 countries(Cambodia,Malaysia,Thailand and Vietnam)have halted production since the US imposed new tariffs on imports from the region in June 2024.Solar investment:Some sol

191、ar panel makers seeking to skirt punitive tariffs in Europe and the US have announced plans to build factories in North America and eastern Europe.Others have opted to mitigate risk by tapping markets in Latin America and Africa,alongside Belt and Road Initiative member countries.In the first half o

192、f 2024 shipments of solar panels to these regions surged,albeit from a low base,indicating that fast-growing economies with rising energy demand could absorb excess supply from China,even if trade barriers persist elsewhere.This also creates opportunities for Chinese infrastructure firms to particip

193、ate in grid redevelopment projects in those countries,extending Beijings influence.Country AnalysisGain insight into a countrys political,policy and economic outlook with our award-winning forecasts,analysis and data.36 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2024Industry outlook 2025Challenges,oppo

194、rtunities and trends to watch in six sectorsUS election:the impact on energyTrump:If Donald Trump is re-elected,his administration will weaken environmental regulation,reduce subsidies for renewable energy and EVs,and remove barriers to oil and gas production.This would lift oil and gas demand,and s

195、low the decline in coal consumption and the adoption of solar,wind and other renewables.Mr Trump has pledged to repeal the flagship climate regulation of his predecessor,Joe Biden,the Inflation Reduction Act(IRA)of 2022,but would face opposition from Republican states that have benefited from the ac

196、ts incentives.Instead,we believe that a Trump administration would be more likely to change how IRA subsidies and other federal regulations are implemented.In terms of international climate commitments,we expect Mr Trump to cease cooperating with the COP process,as he did in his first administration

197、,and to water down,if not scrap altogether,Mr Bidens ambitious emissions targets.A Trump government would oppose international efforts to accelerate the shift away from fossil fuelsa stance that could encourage other countries to backslide on their own climate pledges.Financial assistance to develop

198、ing countries to boost their energy transition and improve adaptation to climate change would also suffer.Harris:If Kamala Harris becomes president,we expect US policy to continue prioritising the fight against climate change and the adoption of renewable energy.Ms Harris would probably keep to the

199、Bidens administrations target of an emission-free power sector by 2035.Her administration would also maintain the USs current Paris Agreement pledge of reducing emissions to 50-52%below 2050 levels by 2030 and achieving net-zero emissions by 2050.Ms Harris will also continue to fund the IRA,offering

200、 grants,loans,rebates and other incentives for energy-transition investments.This would boost the adoption of renewable energy generation and grid capacity,EV manufacturing and charging infrastructure,new technologies such as carbon capture and storage,and clean hydrogen.Government programmes could

201、be expected to invest US$370bn by 2030,and private investment is expected to exceed US$1trn.37 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2024Industry outlook 2025Challenges,opportunities and trends to watch in six sectorsRenewablesCoalNuclearOil and gasSource:EIU.EIUs weather forecast for energy busin

202、esses in 2025US total installed solar capacity,GWUS total installed capacity,wind and solar,GWSource:EIU.Copyright The Economist Intelligence Unit 2024.All rights reserved.US total installed wind capacity,GW050100150200250300202325272931332023242526272829303132203312012012014014014016016016018018018

203、0200200200220220220240240240TrumpTrumpTrumpHarrisHarrisHarrisTrumpHarris38 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2024Industry outlook 2025Challenges,opportunities and trends to watch in six sectorsMeet the EIU teamNicolas Daher works for EIU as Lead Energy Analyst.He specialises in energy and clim

204、ate change issues,covering energy markets and commodities,the energy transition,and energy policies and economics.Nicolas leads the EIUs energy service,which provides comprehensive forecasts of demand and supply across the entire energy mix at a global and national level.He also writes and edits art

205、icles for the service.In addition,he is in charge of the production of EIU Special Reports on energy topics.He offers commentary on energy topics to media outlets and speaks at conferences.Nicolas DaherLead Energy AnalystSpecialist subjects Global energy markets,Energy commodities,the Energy transit

206、ion,Climate Change,Energy policies and economicsLanguages English,SpanishLocation LondonAna oversees The Economist Intelligence Units industry subscription services in London,managing websites,reports,data and forecasts across six industry sectors and acting as lead analyst for our healthcare and au

207、tomotive analysis.Ana also works closely with clients in those two sectors,particularly on projects related to value-based health and healthcare policymaking.Ana is an experienced analyst who has previously spent time specialising in global economic and business development as well as analysis of he

208、althcare policy.She has a particular interest in the transition countries of Eastern Europe.Ana NichollsDirector of industry analysisSpecialist subjects Automotive,Business environment,HealthcareLanguages English,FrenchLocation London39 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2024Industry outlook 20

209、25Challenges,opportunities and trends to watch in six sectors Policy rate cuts will ease conditions for borrowers,especially mortgage holders,as most central banks(except in Japan)loosen monetary policy.Bank margins will decline,leading to lower dividend payouts,but the Basel III endgame will be eas

210、ed or delayed further.Bond markets will rally as emerging markets attract fund flows,and equities will be supported by earning growth,particularly in the US.India and Singapore will attract a wave of new equity listings,while Hong Kongs bourse will experience a resurgence.The rising risk of extreme

211、weather events and heightened geopolitical tensions will raise reinsurance risk.Financial services outlook 2025After years of tightening monetary policy to combat inflation,central banks are now transitioning towards rate cuts,with further reductions anticipated in 2025.However,the pace of rate-cutt

212、ing will differ between geographies.After reducing its policy rate sharply in 2024,the Federal Reserve(Fed,the US central bank)will push through further cuts totalling 50 points in 2025.The European Central Bank(ECB)and the Bank of England(the UK central bank),which started cutting rates earlier thi

213、s year,are likely to proceed more aggressively in 2025.Japan will be an exception to the global trend;we forecast that the Bank of Japan will further normalise its policy after ending negative rate territory in 2024,but will do so cautiously given weak domestic demand and the strain on the public fi

214、nances from higher borrowing costs.These trends will influence financial markets across the world,easing borrowing costs and spurring investment activity,especially in mergers and acquisitions.Falling interest rates will eat into bank margins,but bond markets will rally.40 The Economist Intelligence

215、 Unit Limited 2024Industry outlook 2025Challenges,opportunities and trends to watch in six sectorsBorrowers,especially those with floating-rate mortgages,will benefit from lower interest rates.Companies with debt that needs refinancing will also feel some relief as reduced interest expenses improve

216、their cash flow and solvency.However,over-leveraged firms could still face challenges despite easing financial conditions.Banks enjoyed several years of strong profits when interest rates were high,but their profitability will decline in 2025 as these rates decline on deposits and loans.Shareholders

217、 dividends will also fall as a result.Small and medium-sized banksparticularly in the US and,to a lesser extent,the EUface a moderate-level risk of default on commercial real-estate loans.However,we expect corporate borrowing to rise further as workers return to the office,although mortgage underwri

218、ting rules will tighten,especially in the US.Regulators will tighten climate finance disclosure norms for large financial services companies,but these measures will not receive much pushback at this stage.Basel III implementation will,however,be delayed,and additional capital requirements will be wa

219、tered down significantly,as in the US and the UK this year.Commercial banks will further shrink their physical banking networks,including ATMs and branch offices.Personnel will also be reduced amid significant investments in new capabilities like artificial intelligence(AI);banks are already using A

220、I to improve their predictive capabilities,but the technologys ability to increase the efficiency of the existing workforce will become visible as soon as next year.Cross-border consolidation in EU banking remains a distant prospect,as little progress has been made on the currency unions banking and

221、 capital markets unions,although large financial services companies may seek to invest in their European counterparts.Domestic mergers and acquisitions are far more likely,such as that between Spains BBVA and Banco Sabadell,in which regulators will prioritise ensuring systemic stability over protect

222、ing jobs that will be at risk in the amalgamation process.Bank margins will decline,but capital adequacy norms will be softened41 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2024Industry outlook 2025Challenges,opportunities and trends to watch in six sectorsFalling interest rates will boost fixed-income

223、 markets and securities,and the fund managers that handle these assets.Falling yields and,consequently,higher bond prices should lead to a bond market rally,making fixed income more attractive after years of underperformance.High-quality fixed income,including investment-grade corporate bonds,mortga

224、ge-backed securities and emerging-market sovereign debt,are expected to offer strong returns.Rate cuts in 2025 will also propel bond flows to emerging markets,reversing the outflows triggered by rate rises in recent years.Lower borrowing costs for emerging and developing economies will encourage mor

225、e Eurobond issuance,especially in regions like West Africa,where issuance already rose in early 2024.In the securities market,equities will be supported by earnings-driven growth,particularly in the US.Despite limited potential for valuation expansion,earnings in US stocks should rise between the mi

226、ddle and end of the rate-cutting cycle.Japan and India present solid opportunities for investors seeking global diversification,although Chinas weakness could weigh on broader Asian markets.Real estate may also see renewed interest as lower interest rates ease borrowing costs,boosting property valua

227、tions and capital inflows.Property shares and funds in growth regions could provide diversification and capital appreciation opportunities as macroeconomic conditions stabilise in 2025,but there may be volatility as investors adjust to the timing and magnitude of rate cuts across regions.Rate cuts w

228、ill fuel a bond market rallyUS$bnSource:World Bank,OECD,EIU.Copyright The Economist Intelligence Unit 2024.All rights reserved.Banks net interest income as%of assets20202122232425ChinaGermanyIndiaJapanUKUS2020212223242502004006008001,0000.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.5Banks net interest income will continue

229、 to rise.but net margins will plateau42 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2024Industry outlook 2025Challenges,opportunities and trends to watch in six sectorsCompanies the world over that are looking to go public will have more choice than ever,with easing interest rates opening up more instit

230、utional wealth for investments.Economies in Asia Pacific markets like India,Japan and Singapore will see most of the action on initial public offerings(IPOs),owing to the development of deep domestic capital pools and local regulatory infrastructure.A wave of large-scale IPOs is scheduled for India

231、in 2025,with Swiggy(a food app aggregator)and LG Electronics(a South Korean multinational major appliance and consumer electronics corporation)poised to raise substantial funds through these listings.The countrys thriving economy,which is now outpacing Chinas,has attracted significant investor inter

232、est.With the appetite of Indias domestic investor base and consistent foreign institutional investments into the Indian stockmarket,2025 will be a record-breaking year for India IPOs.We also expect Hong Kongs IPO market to stage a comeback,especially with tech-focused IPOs.With consumer confidence r

233、ising,mainland listings will play a major role.The Specialist Technology Companies regime,also known as Chapter 18C,which is a listing rule on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange(HKEX)that allows certain tech companies to list on the Main Board,will bump new listings.Regulations to support Chinas beleaguer

234、ed property market and a steady flow of capital from the mainland will support the rebound.Weaker premium growth,at a time of rising weather-related losses,will continue to affect insurers H1 2024 growth;%Nikkei 225(Japan)Nifty 50(India)Kuala Lumpur Composite(Malaysia)Kospi(South Korea)Hang Seng(Chi

235、na)Straits Times(Singapore)Jakarta Composite(Indonesia)SET(Thailand)CSI 300(China)10.05.00.05.010.015.020.018.010.49.35.43.92.92.98.19.0Source:EIU.Japan and India are the major benefciaries of equity outfows from ChinaCopyright The Economist Intelligence Unit 2024.All rights reserved.India and Singa

236、pore will dominate public offerings43 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2024Industry outlook 2025Challenges,opportunities and trends to watch in six sectorsprofitability in 2025.Conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine will also add to the claims pressure,prompting many insurers(and reinsurers

237、)to avoid weather-related risks and war risks.The heightened geopolitical risks will especially affect marine insurers,for whom claims have outpaced premiums since 2018.We also expect a rise in demand for personal property and casualty insurance in 2025 owing to the rise in natural disasters.Accordi

238、ng to Swiss Re,2023 was the fourth consecutive year that global insured losses from natural catastrophes had exceeded US$100bn.Insured losses of US$60bn in the first half of 2024 were 62%above the ten-year average.Although El Nia could lower global temperatures slightly in 2025,climate change could

239、still lead to tumultuous weather conditions.Claims are likely to rise sharply in the US,which accounts for nearly 44%of global insurance premiums.Insurers will continue to retreat from the rising risks,leaving governments with a dilemma.Many regulators contribute to market imbalances by capping dama

240、ge insurance premiums and setting coverage requirements.However,this makes policies for storms,floods and fires less attractive for providers,leaving market gaps.The efforts of government-backed insurers to fill in these gaps will become politicised in 2025,especially where housebuilders continue to

241、 build in high-risk areas.Rising weather risk and geopolitics will raise reinsurance demandGross premiums,direct insurance(US$m)%change(gross premiums)Average claim costs,all claims(US$)%change(average claimcosts)2018202303,00020182023020201820230400k201820231020Source:The Nordic Association of Mari

242、ne Insurers.Copyright The Economist Intelligence Unit 2024.All rights reserved.Geopolitics and climate change will raise marine claim costsSlowing premium growth and rising claim cost pressures will persist in 202544 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2024Industry outlook 2025Challenges,opportu

243、nities and trends to watch in six sectorsEU clearing deadline:UK derivatives clearing houses will lose access to the EU after June 2025,bringing to an end the extension granted after Brexit in order to minimise disruption for banks and asset managers.As a result,the London Stock Exchanges LCH unit w

244、ill no longer be able to clear euro interest-rate derivatives,an instrument used extensively by EU-based companies to insure themselves against fluctuations in borrowing costs.The EU is attempting to reduce its reliance on clearing houses outside the blocmore than 70%of such operations take place ou

245、tside the currency unionand raise the volume of EU-based operators.Basel endgame:The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision(BCBS)has set January 1st 2025 as the deadline for adoption of the final Basel III reforms,often referred to as“Basel endgame”.These reforms introduce a significant overhaul of

246、banking regulations,including higher minimum capital requirements and enhanced risk management frameworks.However,widespread industry opposition and subsequent setbacks in the US,followed by a ripple effect in other BCBS jurisdictions,may delay full implementation.Real-time payments:Digital wallets

247、will be the fastest-growing instant payment method globally,and the use of cash will continue to decline as payments innovation accelerates.Account-to-account payments will dominate in India and Brazil,owing to lower transaction costs.However,Wero,the cross-border instant payment solution in Europe,

248、is showing promise a year after its launch,and FedNow will gain traction in the US.Cross-border transactions with central bank digital currencies will also begin in earnest in 2025.Russia will conduct its first cross-border payments,and Brazil will launch the Drex,the digital version of the Real.Cli

249、mate finance guidelines:Global and national regulators will continue to raise their climate finance targets in 2025.The World Bank intends to raise the climate finance component of its total financing to 45%in 2025.The ECB will continue to implement its 2024-25 climate and nature plan,assessing and

250、monitoring banks progress on integrating climate risks into their prudential frameworks.Large financial services companies in India will have to adhere to the climate risk disclosure plan in the 2025-26 financial year.What to watch45 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2024Industry outlook 2025C

251、hallenges,opportunities and trends to watch in six sectorsUS election:the impact on financial servicesTrump:If Donald Trump wins the US presidential election,efforts at deregulating the financial services industry will increase.However,as neither the Democratic nor the Republican parties have a deci

252、sive majority in the US legislature,the passage of any regulation will be difficult.Instead,Mr Trump will focus on a soft-touch regulatory approach,starting with replacing many of the regulatory heads,such as those at the SEC and CFTC,that have raised oversight and tightened enforcement of existing

253、financial regulations.During his first term Mr Trump cut the budget for the Consumer Finance Protection Bureau(CFPB)and reduced enforcement considerably.A second Trump administration would,however,further delay the introduction of Basel III regulations for the largest US banks,or abolish them altoge

254、ther.Mr Trump is also a newly minted cryptocurrency proponent and would act as an enabler for related companies,firming their connection with real-world finance.A Trump administration could also grant fintech companies national banking charters,raising the risk for the banking system in the process.

255、Although his approach to insurance and private equity unclear,the business environment created by his proposed policies of tax and policy rate cuts would benefit such companies.Harris:Should Kamala Harris,the Democrat candidate,win,her administration would maintain the same attitude towards financia

256、l services as that of the incumbent president,Joe Biden:greater oversight and tighter enforcement of existing regulations.Ms Harris would also work towards strengthening consumer protections and reducing unnecessary charges,also known as junk fees,that some financial services companies charge custom

257、ers.Many of the current heads of regulatory agencies,known for their proactive approach,would be retained or individuals with a similar approach to regulation appointed.46 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2024Industry outlook 2025Challenges,opportunities and trends to watch in six sectorsCoun

258、try AnalysisGain insight into a countrys political,policy and economic outlook with our award-winning forecasts,analysis and data.Ms Harris would also proceed to enforce the Basel III regulations,which have been watered down considerably after intense lobbying from the industry.Attempts would also b

259、e made to abolish the carried interest rate loophole that the private equity industry has protected zealously during the first Trump and Biden administrations.A Harris administration would also have a better relationship with the crypto industry,given that Ms Harris has met representatives from such

260、 companies,but outright fraud would be dealt with firmly.However,a Harris presidency would be less welcome by at least some parts of the financial services industry,such as insurance and private equity,than a second Trump administration,owing to Ms Harriss plans to raise capital gains taxes on the w

261、ealthiest individuals and adopt a data-centric approach to central bank policy.FintechInsuranceAsset managementBankingSource:EIU.EIUs weather forecast for fnancial businesses in 202547 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2024Industry outlook 2025Challenges,opportunities and trends to watch in si

262、x sectorsMeet the EIU teamSwarup Gupta leads the EIUs coverage of the financial services industry,looking at the role and development of banking,insurance and financial systems worldwide.He has particular expertise on fintech,digital currencies and sustainable finance,and is responsible for EIUs sov

263、ereign ESG service.Swarup has a deep understanding of capital markets,especially in the US and Asia.He has presented to decision-makers at Fortune 100 companies,as well as at client webinars,and moderated large conventions across the Middle East and South Africa,on topics including financial regulat

264、ion,ESG developments,digital payments,trade finance and the impact of the US election on the financial services sector.Swarup GuptaIndustry Manager and Lead analyst,financial services and ESGSpecialist subjects Financial markets,Banking,Insurance,Fintech,Digital payments and Platform strategy,Crypto

265、currencies and Central Bank Digital Currencies,Sustainable Finance and ESG InvestingLanguages English,Bengali,Hindi,UrduLocation GurgaonAna oversees The Economist Intelligence Units industry subscription services in London,managing websites,reports,data and forecasts across six industry sectors and

266、acting as lead analyst for our healthcare and automotive analysis.Ana also works closely with clients in those two sectors,particularly on projects related to value-based health and healthcare policymaking.Ana is an experienced analyst who has previously spent time specialising in global economic an

267、d business development as well as analysis of healthcare policy.She has a particular interest in the transition countries of Eastern Europe.Ana NichollsDirector of industry analysisSpecialist subjects Automotive,Business environment,HealthcareLanguages English,FrenchLocation London48 The Economist I

268、ntelligence Unit Limited 2024Industry outlook 2025Challenges,opportunities and trends to watch in six sectors Global healthcare spending will outpace inflation in 2025,growing by nearly 6%in US dollar terms and 1.9%in real terms.The share of private spending,which lagged public spending during the p

269、andemic,will recover as inflation eases.With public spending under pressure,the world will fail to meet UN targets for Universal Healthcare Coverage(UHC).Climate change and wars will also take an increasing toll on human health.Pharmaceutical sales will rise by 4.7%in 2025,owing in part to higher de

270、mand for anti-obesity medications and other drugs,and the continued strength of the dollar.The debate over regulation of the sector will remain intense,particularly in the US and EU,amid efforts to contain prices and improve competition.Pharmaceutical firms will invest in diversifying supply chains

271、and boosting manufacturing capacity to counteract drug shortages and avoid overreliance on Chinese inputs.Healthcare outlook 2025EIU forecasts that global healthcare spending will grow by about 6%in US-dollar terms in 2025,comfortably outpacing slowing inflation.This real-terms increase will be driv

272、en primarily by public spending in low-and middle-income countries,but growth will also be rapid in wealthier countries with ageing populations.About 12%of the world will be aged 65 or older in 2025,pushing up demand for healthcare services.However,governments will find it difficult to fund care as

273、budgets are diverted to defence,green subsidies and infrastructure spending.Health spending will grow in real terms,but governments will miss their targets for universal healthcare.49 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2024Industry outlook 2025Challenges,opportunities and trends to watch in six

274、 sectorsAs a result,progress on the build-out of public healthcare systems will remain slow,as it has been since the pandemic.About a decade ago,when the UNs sustainable development goals were adopted,2023 was set as the target year for achieving the so-called triple billion targets,which included e

275、xtending UHC to 1bn additional people.During the pandemic these targets were deferred to 2025 but it now seems that this timeline will also be missed,jeopardising the even more ambitious targets set for 2030.We also expect minimal progress in lowering the unaffordable out-of-pocket health costs for

276、rural and poorer populations across Africa,Asia and Latin America.Medical tourism will drive healthcare investmentMedical tourism will be a major driver of global health and pharmaceutical investment in 2025,as high prices in North America and western Europe cause people to travel abroad to access c

277、heaper healthcare.Several countries,including Thailand,Turkey,the UAE and Mexico,will focus on becoming top destinations for medical tourists by developing specialisms and boosting recruitment.Malaysia aims to become a premium medical tourism destination by 2025,under its Healthcare Travel Industry

278、Blueprint.%change in nominal US$terms%change in real US$termsHealthcare spending as a%of GDPSource:World Bank,OECD,EIU.Copyright The Economist Intelligence Unit 2024.All rights reserved.Global health spending will grow in real terms in 2025The worlds healthcare expenditure as a%of GDP will be largel

279、y unchanged 20192020202120222023202420258642024681012Healthcare spending fell inHealthcare spending fell inreal terms after the covid-real terms after the covid-19 pandemic19 pandemicHealthcare spending fell inreal terms after the covid-19 pandemic201850 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2024I

280、ndustry outlook 2025Challenges,opportunities and trends to watch in six sectorsGovernments will struggle to contain medicine pricesRegulations around the quality of care will also multiply.For medical tourism,this will be crucial to avoid corrective procedures and follow-up care for botched or inade

281、quate services provided.However,the efforts to develop and staff new healthcare services,coupled with ageing populations and disaffection among existing staff,will create strong competition for workers in 2025.Some governments will reassess labour and migration laws and revisit funding sources and w

282、ages;however,with the surge of the far-right across Europe and other parts of the world,some countries may struggle to recruit adequate healthcare personnel in 2025.Staff tensions will not dissipate either:UK doctors,having finally agreed a pay rise in 2024,will ballot for more industrial action in

283、2025.We expect pharmaceutical sales to rise by a robust 4.7%in 2025,aided by demand for obesity drugs,mental health treatments and dementia medication.Countries that rely on drug imports may also face higher costs owing to the continued strength of the dollar,although moderating commodity prices sho

284、uld offset some of this for producers.This will not prevent companies from raising drug prices despite regulatory changes aimed at boosting competition and controlling such increases.Such efforts will include the pharmaceutical regulations contained in the Inflation Reduction Act(IRA)in the US,and t

285、he EUs proposed and amended“pharmaceutical package”of regulations.After agreeing lower prices for the first ten drugs under the IRA,Medicare,a US public health fund,will select up to 15 other drugs as part of the second round of negotiations in 2025 as it moves towards implementing these price cuts

286、in 2026.However,if Donald Trump wins the US presidential election,continued implementation of the IRA will be more difficult as the pharmaceuticals industry continues lobbying against it.Momentum around the EUs pharma package seems to have died down,owing to fears that it would prevent the inflow of

287、 pharmaceutical investment into Europe.The European Commission is likely to take a conservative approach to the legislation,which aimed to ease access to medicines by making the EUs pharma market more competitive.However,it will also propose a European Biotech Act in 2025,with the aim of making biot

288、ech development easier as part 51 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2024Industry outlook 2025Challenges,opportunities and trends to watch in six sectorsDrugmakers will boost capacity and diversify supply chains20152016201720182019202020212022202390100110120130140150160US:medical drugsChina:Wes

289、tern medicinesEU:pharmaceutical productsBrazil:pharmaceutical productsSource:Eurostat;national statistics;EIU.Copyright The Economist Intelligence Unit 2024.All rights reserved.Developing markets have seen stronger growth in pharma pricesConsumer price index;2015=100of a broader strategy for Europea

290、n life sciences.However,it is developing markets such as China and Brazil that have seen the strongest growth in drug prices,as imports have risen and currencies have weakened.Clamping down on this will not be easy,but China will make another push to expand its centralised bulk purchasing programme.

291、Launched in 2018,the programme now covers 500 medications and has been effective in keeping down price inflation.Brazil,meanwhile,will continue to rely on its price caps to reduce drug price rises,despite limited success so far.Pharmaceutical firms will continue to invest heavily in research and dev

292、elopment(R&D)in 2025 as demand for lifestyle and age-related illnesses increases.However,they will also be forced to invest into their supply chains as trade barriers rise and concerns about shortages increase.The US Biosecure Act,for example,could finally be approved in 2025,but even if it is not,U

293、S drugmakers will need to reduce their dependence on Chinese inputs.Drug shortages will also continue to affect pharma supply chains,pushing governments and companies to bolster manufacturing capacities for life-saving medicines and vaccines.Shortages of some GLP-1 agonists,such as Ozempic,are expec

294、ted to continue into 2025,while the EU will continue to grapple with shortages of antibiotics,insulin and painkillers.52 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2024Industry outlook 2025Challenges,opportunities and trends to watch in six sectorsThe effects of climate change will become harder to ign

295、oreWhat to watchGovernments will remain keen to reduce their reliance on the import of pharmaceutical goods,including active pharmaceutical ingredients(API)from China.The European Commission is set to propose a Critical Medicines Act in 2025,aimed at improving flows of critical medicines and ingredi

296、ents,especially for drugs with few suppliers.In Africa,the mpox outbreak has highlighted the lack of manufacturing capacity.A UNICEF emergency tender,which aims to procure up to 12m doses of mpox vaccines by the end of 2025,will encourage investment by companies including Bavarian Nordic(Denmark).Ho

297、wever,the pharmaceutical industry in Africa will continue to be constrained by low demand,inefficient distribution channels,underdeveloped industrial capacity and constant political instability.The World Health Organisation(WHO)will make climate change the focus of its 14th four-year general program

298、me,which starts in 2025.It will call on governments to join forces to tackle humanitarian emergencies caused by extreme weather events:more than 3.6bn individuals are currently estimated to be living in regions highly susceptible to climate change risks.A WHO-backed conference that will take place i

299、n Colombia in March will focus on the risks from air pollution,and the UNDPs Climate Promise 2025 will call on private entities and civil society partners to support new pledges by developing nations as the world tries to limit the global temperature rise to 1.5 C and minimise the impact on human he

300、alth.mRNA technology:In late August an mRNA vaccine from BioNTech(Germany)started phase I trials(early stage)against lung cancer,marking the first of its kind being tested in humans.A US-based drugmaker,Moderna,could overtake BioNTech and market an mRNA vaccine to treat skin cancer as early as 2025,

301、according to media reports.Mental health:Rules enhancing the Mental Health Parity and Addiction Equity Act are set to be implemented in January.These 53 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2024Industry outlook 2025Challenges,opportunities and trends to watch in six sectorsCountry AnalysisGain in

302、sight into a countrys political,policy and economic outlook with our award-winning forecasts,analysis and data.changes are expected to reduce barriers in mental health treatments and enable private health insurance plans to cover it on the same terms as other regular physical ailments.Pandemic prepa

303、redness:World leaders failed to agree to a pandemic preparedness treaty in 2024 despite extensive negotiations over the past two years.The need to ensure equitable access to healthcare resources,especially those required to prevent and handle pandemics for people across the globe,is at the heart of

304、this proposed pandemic accord.The next World Health Assembly,scheduled to be held in May,is expected to lead to a more conclusive agreement between member countries.54 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2024Industry outlook 2025Challenges,opportunities and trends to watch in six sectorsEIUs wea

305、ther forecast for healthcare in 2025PharmaMedtechProvisionInsurersSource:EIU.US election:the impact on healthcare and pharmaceuticalsTrump:If Donald Trump is re-elected president,we expect further attempts to repeal the Affordable Care Act(ACA),more popularly called Obamacare.Although the likelihood

306、 of any major setback to Obamacare or its elimination is negligible,spending cuts are possible.Abortion access under a Trump administration will largely remain unchanged,as he believes in leaving the choice up to state legislation.The Trump campaign has also expressed support for free IVF treatments

307、 and universal access to contraception,although many Republicans oppose this.Mr Trump has vowed to take on“Big Pharma”if he wins.Drug price negotiations under the IRA are in sharp contrast to the Republican Partys free market principles,and Mr Trumps plan to tackle high prices remains largely unclea

308、r.However,he is likely to create administrative hurdles to make drug price negotiations via the IRA difficult.Harris:If elected,Kamala Harris,the Democrat candidate,vows to guarantee the right to abortion under federal law.However,this will be easier said than done with the current composition of th

309、e US Supreme Court.Ms Harris and her running mate,Tim Walz,have been more vocal than any other previous campaigns in championing birth control and fertility treatments,among other reproductive rights.As far as the ACA is concerned,she will focus on policy continuity and expand access to services lik

310、e dental coverage,while also pushing for the remaining states(mostly Republican)to adopt Medicaid expansion.A Harris presidency would also uphold pharmaceutical provisions and price negotiations under the IRA as planned in 2025.55 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2024Industry outlook 2025Chal

311、lenges,opportunities and trends to watch in six sectorsMeet the EIU teamAakash Babu is an expert in health and pharmaceutical sector coverage,specialising in Asia-Pacific and North American regions.He looks closely at issues surrounding pandemic preparedness as well as larger disease trends and chro

312、nic conditions that currently plague health systems.He has demonstrated the ability to provide key forecasts around incoming regulatory changes and larger industry trends.His forecasting skills also tie into larger macro-economic levers.Having previously covered the pharmaceutical sector for Reuters

313、 News for more than 3 years,he also focuses on drug research and development,regulation,disease trends and approvals.Aakash BabuIndustry Analyst(healthcare)Specialist subjects Pharmaceutical forecasts,disease trends,drug research and development,pharmaceutical regulation.Languages English,Malayalam,

314、Tamil and HindiLocation LondonShivani is a part of the Industry Analysis team,where she specialises in the healthcare sector with a keen focus on health policy.She contributes to healthcare industry reports for over 60 countries and writes articles on the latest trends in terms of health access,demo

315、graphy,public and private healthcare spending,medical infrastructure,health policy and regulations.Her key coverage regions include South Asian and Latin American countries.Before joining the EIU,Shivani was an associate financial editor at Seeking Alpha for a brief period in 2022.Prior to Seeking A

316、lpha,she was a business correspondent with Reuters news in Bangalore for nearly four years.Shivani contributed to Reuters coverage of Indian and Sri Lankan equity markets as well as the Reserve Bank of India and simultaneously reported on the Indian and US health and pharma sectors.Shivani SinghAnal

317、yst,industrySpecialist subjects Health policy,Healthcare access and coverageLanguages English,HindiLocation Gurgaon56 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2024Industry outlook 2025Challenges,opportunities and trends to watch in six sectors Next year will be the year of realism for artificial inte

318、lligence(AI),as users struggle to deliver returns on their investment.Most companies will still be at the proof-of-concept stage for implementation.Semiconductor demand will be driven by AI rather than by traditional devices,but geopolitics and the tense relationship between China and the West will

319、continue to trump economics when it comes to production decisions.Regulation of online content will start to converge,rebalancing the relationship between internet companies and states.However,governments will still diverge over the values driving regulation.More countries will turn on satellite int

320、ernet services,but use cases will be limited to enterprise clients:military and maritime.Amazons Kuiper will disrupt the market duopoly of Starlink and EutelSat OneWeb.Tech and telecoms outlook 2025EIU called 2023 the year of experimentation for artificial intelligence(AI),and 2024 the year of imple

321、mentation as companies started using the technology across multiple business processes.Although 2025 could be the year of monetisation,it will rather be the year of realism,as we do not expect these investments to start creating returns on investment as hoped.Many companies will continue trialling t

322、he technology,but further scaling up will be necessary,especially for generative AI,before it becomes profitable for its users.Large-scale spending on AI infrastructure will continue in 2025.The largest tech companies will continue to benefit from their generous cash holdings and the profitability o

323、f their core businesses.This will allow them to spend heavily without affecting their bottom line too much.However,they will face challenges from tighter regulation as multiple countries pass AI rules.Sustainability and high energy usage will also remain a cause for concern as clients and investors

324、monitor the large carbon footprint of building AI models.So far the only tech company to have made real money from the AI boom has been Nvidia,a US chipmaker,whose chips are critical in building data centres.Nvidia will face steeper competition in 2025 Artificial intelligence will continue to drive

325、the technology sector in 2025,but firms will be under pressure to show returns.57 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2024Industry outlook 2025Challenges,opportunities and trends to watch in six sectorsas the market dynamics move from training to inference.The training phase requires more powerf

326、ul chips to develop the AI model and its algorithms than inference,which builds on this training to deliver real-life results.Cloud players will also face more competition from edge devices,where real-time computing can be done on the device,as AI models develop.Data will still be available to train

327、 AI models,but they may become more costly to access as copyright takes hold.There will be more deals between AI companies and content holders in 2025,and the first court decision will be made on what can be used for free.Chipmakers will prioritise geopolitics over economicsFor chipmakers such as Nv

328、idia and TSMC(Taiwan),AI will drive strong demand in 2025,while demand for traditional consumer electronics and devices will be more subdued.However,the semiconductor market will continue to be dominated by geopolitics.The US,Europe and Japan will continue to court new fabs in an attempt to reduce t

329、heir reliance on Asian producers including Taiwan,South Korea and China.However,such efforts will be only partially successful;the delayed TSMC fab in Arizona will finally open in 2025,but Intel(US)has put construction of its EU plants on hold as part of a plan to cut costs by 9bn(US$9.1bn)by the en

330、d of next year.Whoever wins the US presidential election will continue to put restrictions on China and its access to semiconductors,and not just cutting-edge chips.However,a Trump administration is likely to be less collaborative in its approach,20162017201820192020202120222023202420250Forecast For

331、ecast periodperiodForecast periodAI will continue to drive IT spending in 2025IT spending;US$bnSource:EIU.Copyright The Economist Intelligence Unit 2024.All rights reserved.Asia-PacificEuropeSouthAmericaUSMCA500100015002000250030003500400058 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2024Industry outlo

332、ok 2025Challenges,opportunities and trends to watch in six sectorsThe relationships between states and techSource:EIU.Copyright The Economist Intelligence Unit 2024.All rights reserved.Tech companies replace nation-states as the way to articulate the global order.Nation-states retain complete contro

333、l over tech companies as in China or Russia.The two entities continue to work with each other,respecting each others boundaries and sometimes collaborating on some key issues.ReplacementCo-optationCooperationRelationshipDefinitionRegulation will cause nation states to clash with tech giantsmeaning that allies such as Taiwan,Japan or the Netherlands will face tougher choices on how to deal with the