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1、MINING INDUSTRY OUTLOOK 20242|Mining Industry Outlook 2024External Document 2024 Infosys Limited Knowledge InstituteKnowledge InstituteMining Industry Outlook 2024|3External Document 2024 Infosys Limited Knowledge InstituteContentsExecutive summary 4Market dynamics 6Operational dynamics 10Recommenda

2、tions for sustainable,safe mining 164|Mining Industry Outlook 2024External Document 2024 Infosys Limited Knowledge InstituteEXECUTIVE SUMMARYThe mining industry powers the global economy with the building blocks of metals,minerals,and fossil fuels such as coal.Mining contributed 1.4%to the US GDP in

3、 2023,yet casts a much longer shadow in its overall economic impact.Efficiently mining critical materials such as lithium,cobalt,and copper is now essential to satisfy current demand,achieve energy transition goals,and meet net-zero carbon emissions in multiple industries.The global mining market is

4、 expected to grow from$2 trillion in 2022 to$3.5 trillion by 2032 at a CAGR of 5.8%.But there is a gap between what the world demands and what the mining companies can produce.For example,green initiatives like battery production need vast quantities of lithium,cobalt,and copper.However,by 2030,exis

5、ting mines will produce only about half of the lithium and cobalt and around 80%of the copper required.Meanwhile,there is increasing focus on circularity at the end of the product life cycle to reuse,recycle,or refurbish parts and materials,reducing demand for virgin resources.Manufacturers must now

6、 report the proportion of virgin materials compared to recycled product content.Additionally,mining for battery raw materials may peak by 2030s due to recyclingefforts.Given these dynamics,four business trends in the mining sector have emerged:sustainable energy transition from supply of critical ma

7、terials and decarbonization;operational Mining Industry Outlook 2024|5External Document 2024 Infosys Limited Knowledge Instituteefficiency for better yield with cheaper,faster workflows;supply chain resiliency to spring back from unforeseen disruptions;and safe and socially responsible operations.Te

8、chnologies driving these trends are artificial intelligence(AI)for automation and autonomous decision-making;industrial internet of things(IoT)with IT-OT integration for enhanced visibility from the top floor of the enterprise to the mines;5G for real-time communication;and fog computing for local d

9、ecision-making between data sources like IoT at the edge with central cloud systems.The mining industry powers the global economy with the building blocks of metals,minerals,and fossil fuels such as coal.Mining Industry Outlook 2024|5External Document 2024 Infosys Limited 6|Mining Industry Outlook 2

10、024External Document 2024 Infosys Limited Knowledge InstituteMARKET DYNAMICSMarket dynamics are an outside-in perspective for mining companies,enabling to benchmark best practices and lessons learned,including from beyond mining.Figure 1 highlights leading mining companies by market capitalization.F

11、igure 1.Top 10 mining companies by market value,Q2 2024($billions)Source:MRevenue vs.profitabilityCompanies that engage in physical mining and employ high levels of automation earn better profit margins due to lower operating costs and better,faster yield(Figure 2).A plot Knowledge InstituteBHP Grou

12、pRio TintoSouthern CopperGlencoreFreeport-McMoRanZijin MiningAmman MineralNewmontValeFortescue Metals$146$113$84$71$70$64$51$48$48$45Mining Industry Outlook 2024|7External Document 2024 Infosys Limited Knowledge InstituteFigure 2.Revenue vs.profit margins for top 15 revenue-earning mining companies,

13、2023of annual revenue versus EBITDA margins for mining companies gives a birds eye view of how large players perform.Glencore,despite a revenue of$217 billion,has a single-digit profit margin since it is also into commodity trading,a low margin business.BHPs Spence copper mine in Chile is fully auto

14、nomous,a transition that began in 2022.This shift is expected to reduce risk exposure in mining operations by 90%.Rio Tinto has a fleet of 130 autonomous trucks for haulage in its iron ore mining operation.The trucks delivered a 15%cost savings,increased productivity,and prevented humans from workin

15、g in unsafe conditions.Other miners are also investing in automation and autonomous decision-making to improveefficiency.Strategic changesTraditional mining companies face challenges to keep pace with growing demand for critical materials.Organic growth is a long business cycle in mining.Traditional

16、 mining sectors operate slower than fast-moving,competitive critical materials businesses,where quick decisions are necessary.Critical materials need to follow and catch up with trends like electrification,renewable energy,and energy transition.These conditions have led to and will continue to see m

17、ergers,acquisitions,business consolidations,and carving out critical material business.For example,Rio Tinto acquired Turquoise Hill in 2022 to strengthen its copper portfolio,and BHP completed its acquisition of OZ Minerals in 2023 to expand its portfolio in copper andnickel.Source:RefinitivKnowled

18、ge InstituteCompanies that engage in physical mining with automation earn higher profit margins due to low operating costs and better,faster yield.0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%$0$50$100$150$200$250BHP GroupVale SARio TintoFreeport-McMoRanAnglo American PLCNucor CorpZijin MiningAluminum CorpNipp

19、on SteelBaoshanJFE HoldingsThyssenkruppGlencoreEBITDA margin%Revenue,$billionsArcelorMittalJiangxi CopperPosco Holdings8|Mining Industry Outlook 2024Knowledge InstitutePotential risks to growthRegulatory complianceMining companies must navigate complex regulatory environments that vary by country.Ch

20、anges in laws related to environmental protection,labor rights,and land use often impose additional costs and operational delays.Noncompliance activity risks fines,legal actions,and reputational damage.Resource nationalism has gained momentum as countries seek to retain more benefits from their natu

21、ral resources.Governments in Africa and South America are increasing taxes and imposing stricter regulations on foreign mining companies.In Asia,Indonesia has banned the export of unprocessed nickel,pushing companies to invest in local processing facilities.Environmental concerns Mining activities c

22、an lead to significant environmental degradation,including habitat destruction,water pollution,and carbon emissions.Increasing scrutiny from governments and communities demands companies to adopt sustainable practices,often requiring costly investments in mitigation technologies.The Democratic Repub

23、lic of the Congo(DRC)accounts for more than 50%of the global cobalt reserves.In the Gcamines neighborhood in Kolwezi city in DRC,40%of the land became a copper and cobalt mine in 2022.The area was home to 39,000 people,and their relocation became controversial.As geopolitical risks,mining operations

24、 are vulnerable to geopolitical tensions,trade disputes,and changes in government policies.Such factors can disrupt operations,lead to expropriations,and create instability in mining regions.Although the DRC classifies mining as hazardous child labor,children continue to work in the informal mining

25、sector.Projects like Combatting Child Labor in the Democratic Republic of the Congos Cobalt Industry(COTECCO)aim to improve working conditions in DRCs mines and reduce child labor.Human rights organizations have filed lawsuits against large corporations,making it a tricky issue for them whether to c

26、ontinue with DRC.Cobalt,commonly used in battery cathodes for its high energy density and thermal stability,requires alternative sources,mining methods,or substitute materials to avoid these challenges.The mining industry relies on complex supply chains for equipment,materials,and labor.Disruptions

27、due to geopolitical tensions,natural disasters,or pandemics can lead to project delays and increasedcosts.Supply chain disruptions such as the Suez Canal blockage,floods in China in 2021,and labor unrest in Chile and Peru in 2023 impacted the mining industry,beyond the pandemic and conflicts between

28、 countries.Mining companies took precautionary steps such as supply chain diversification,localization,and transparency to mitigate such risks in future.Supply chains External Document 2024 Infosys Limited Mining Industry Outlook 2024|9Knowledge Instituteare becoming shorter by identifying alternate

29、 suppliers closer to the customer.In the area of market volatility,commodity prices are highly volatile due to global economic conditions,demand fluctuations,and geopolitical tensions.This unpredictability complicates financial planning and investment strategies for mining companies.Social licenses

30、to operate are an important consideration.Gaining and maintaining community support is essential for mining operations.Displacement of communities,land rights conflicts,and inadequate engagement frequently spark opposition and protests,jeopardizing projects and operations.The Porgera gold mine in Pa

31、pua New Guinea,once responsible for around 10%of the countrys exports,has stalled production due to tribal violence triggered by displacement.External Document 2024 Infosys Limited Mining Industry Outlook 2024|910|Mining Industry Outlook 2024External Document 2024 Infosys Limited Knowledge Institute

32、OPERATIONAL DYNAMICS The broad operational trends in the mining industry are sustainable mining for energy transition,operations efficiency that includes workforce skill development,safe and socially responsible mining,and supply chain resilience(Figure 3).Safety,social responsibilityMining has alwa

33、ys been one of the most dangerous industries,although safety measures have improved outcomes significantly.In the US,fatal injuries in the Figure 3.The four broad business trends in the mining sectorSource:Infosys Critical material supply Decarbonize to achieve net-zero target Optimized processes,as

34、sets workfows Improve yield Safe operations Community perspective Moving closer to customersSustainable Energy TransitionOperations efciencySafety,social responsibilitySupply chain resiliencyMining Industry Outlook 2024|11External Document 2024 Infosys Limited Knowledge Institutemining,quarrying,and

35、 oil and gas extraction sectors have decreased to below 100 in 2020.Safety remains paramount as mining expands into hazardous environments due to resource depletion driven by growing demand and overconsumption.This leads to new exploration,projects,exploitation,and unsustainable mining practices.Com

36、panies are leveraging technology to enhance worker safety,including wearable devices that monitor health metrics in real time,personal protective equipment,training of miners to use safety equipment,sensors,and associated technologies to sense dangerous gases,and emergency response planning.Sustaina

37、ble mining for energy transitionThe mining sector accounts for between 2%and 3%of global carbon emissions,and mining companies have announced initiatives to achieve net-zero carbon emissions.The industry is focused on sustainability,driven by environmental regulations and social responsibility.Compa

38、nies are adopting green technologies such as electric vehicles and renewable energy sources to minimize their carbon footprint.For example,Rio Tinto aims for net-zero emissions by 2050 and has initiated solar and wind projects to power operations.The industry also prioritizes responsible sourcing of

39、 materials like lithium and cobalt for batteries,emphasizing reduced habitat destruction.This trend reflects a growing demand for eco-friendly practices in mining.Operations efficiencyOverall equipment effectiveness(OEE)assesses the effectiveness of industrial equipment,considering equipment availab

40、ility(uptime),performance(measured by output speed),and quality.OEE is used in the mining industry to measure effectiveness of heavy equipment.OEE is improved by steps beyond digitization and automation such as ore quality improvement and fragmentation.As the industry faces a skills gap,investment i

41、n workforce development is crucial.Mining companies emphasize training programs to equip workers with the necessary skills for a technologically advanced environment.Estimates suggest that decarbonization could lead to job losses of up to 154,000 in the coal mining industry by 2030,specifically in t

42、he European Union.Globally,4.7 million jobs exist in coal mining in 2022,with a job loss of one-third due to mechanization between 2008 and 2019.At the same time,investments are being made in renewable energy,while some employees are retrained to shift to roles in the renewable industry.In the Europ

43、ean Union,job demand in the renewable energy sector is expected to grow by 304,000 new jobs per year until 2030,with 60%of these jobs expected in the wind sector and 24%in the solar sector.For 71%of mining leaders,talent shortage is holding them back from achieving their production targets and strat

44、egic objectives.Supply chain resilienceBusiness disruptions such as the Covid-19 pandemic have nudged corporates to move 12|Mining Industry Outlook 2024Knowledge InstituteSupply chain transparency is a proactive measure of resilience.Technologies such as IoT,GPS(global positioning systems),cloud,and

45、 blockchain enable tracking a shipment from its origin to its destination,raising alarms in case of any disruption.Blockchain helps companies like BHP answer questions about the environmental footprint of their supply chains,whether materials are ethically sourced,and the value realized from shipmen

46、ts.Technology trendsCrucial mining sector technologies are IoT for parameter measurement,integrated with the rest of the enterprise;5G to communicate important data;fog and edge computing for rapid and localized decision-making;and centralized AI and automation for autonomous decision-making(Figure

47、4).AI and automationDigital technologies enhance efficiency and safety at each stage of the mining value chain.Adoption of automation,including fully autonomous mining operations with vehicles and drones,streamlines processes and reduces worker risks.AI and autonomous beyond faster,cheaper,better pr

48、oducts,to resilient and on-time supply to their customers.RISE(Resilient and Inclusive Supply Chain Enhancement)is a global initiative for diversified,sustainable,resilient supply chains,specifically for the critical metals required for energy transition.By 2040,the global demand for critical minera

49、ls for renewables,mobility electrification,and industrial process decarbonization is estimated to be four times the current demand of$325 billion.Japan and the World Bank announced the initiative in 2023,with Canada,Italy,the Republic of Korea,and the UK as donors,and more countries are expected to

50、join.The three pillars of RISE are regional analytics to identify challenges and opportunities,technical assistance for skill development,policy design,capacity building,strategic investment planning,and investment facilitation.Expected outcomes include investments in strategic infrastructure and mi

51、neral value chain,skilled workforce,and regulations for manufacturing.The infrastructure includes both hard(IoT for data gathering,communication channels)and soft(analytical models for decision-making)investments.External Document 2024 Infosys Limited Figure 4.Technology trends that drive the mining

52、 sectorSource:InfosysIndustrial IOT,IT-OT integration5G forcommunicationFog computingat the edgeAI andautomation Sensors for sentience A connected enterprise Real-time communication Private network in remotelocations Local decision-making Autonomous decisionsMining Industry Outlook 2024|13Knowledge

53、InstituteExternal Document 2024 Infosys Limited Energy Industry Outlook 2024|13systems are crucial to improve yield,address workforce shortages,and enable timely decisions without human intervention,leading to safer,more productive operations.Nutrien has deployed tele-remote technology to address hi

54、gh-risk activities such as ground falls in underground potash mining.Autonomous mining is carried out from remote locations,eliminating humans from hazardous situations.AI and machine learning(ML)analyze vast amounts of data to optimize operations,from exploration to production,throughout a mines li

55、fe cycle(Figure 5).These technologies identify patterns and provide predictive analytics for better planning and decision-making.The major AI use cases by life cycle stage in mining are:Exploration:This stage is risky,with less than 1%of projects progressing to the establishment of a mine.Gold produ

56、ction company Goldcorp uses AI to determine optimal drilling locations by analyzing geological data with deep learning to identify hidden gold deposits.Vale uses deep learning algorithms to analyze satellite imagery for environmental monitoring and exploration.However,the long discovery-to-productio

57、n cycle time in mining,averaging more than 15 years,and the rarity of successful discoveries make it difficult to gather data for successful AI deployment.Setup and planning:Vales AI center was setup for AI initiatives in business units across countries.One project was for train wheelset maintenance

58、 using sensors,to measure the temperature and noise of bearing,wear of wheels,and bogie displacement.This information helped plan the maintenance Digital technologies enhance efficiency and safety at each stage of the mining value chain.14|Mining Industry Outlook 2024External Document 2024 Infosys L

59、imited Knowledge Instituteand purchase of assets and extend their useful life.In its first year,the program generated$400,000 savings 10 times itscost.Development:BHP uses sensors in hard hats to analyze brain waves and measure fatigue in truck drivers.This arrangement can avoid accidents resulting

60、from driver drowsiness.Production:Freeport-McMoRan faced a dilemma in increasing its production whether to invest and open new mines,or to improve operations and increase production from its already mature mines.Freeport decided to go the AI way and built a central cloud-based data architecture to c

61、apture minute aspects of mining operation.This data trained AI models to pinpoint opportunities for production enhancement,resulting in a boost of 5%to 10%in output.Industry-specific use cases allow businesses to embed the nuances of sector-specific AI solutions to address unique challenges and oppo

62、rtunities.Infosys Topaz uses generative AI to deliver value through such applications.Private 5G networks for communication5Gs properties(low latency,better bandwidth,low physical footprint,and reliability)make the technology suitable for remote mining operations.Mining,especially with automation,ne

63、eds continuous equipment operation and monitoring for productivity and safety.For example,the Swedish mining company Boliden implemented 5G in its underground mine.The network functions locally and ensures functionality even when it loses external communication.The Yanjiahe Coal Mine in China uses a

64、 5G private network and edge Figure 5.Use cases for AI at every stage in the life cycle of minesSource:InfosysKnowledge InstituteExplorationSetup and planningDevelopmentProductionReclamation Adherence to localregulations Ore sampling Drill testing Project planning Safety monitoring Equipment install

65、ation,testing Autonomous operation,inspection Predictive maintenance for miningequipment Optimize use of energy,naturalresources Mineral deposit location identifcation at least costMining Industry Outlook 2024|15External Document 2024 Infosys Limited Knowledge Institutecomputing to boost efficiency

66、and improve safety in its major mining operations.Industrial IoT and IT-OT integrationMining operations should be integrated with the rest of the enterprise to enhance efficiency and remain attuned to market dynamics and customer needs.The integration of OT applications such as MES and SCADA with en

67、terprise applications including ERP and CRM is essential to streamline key processes,including geological modeling,mine planning,materials management,logistics,and finance.This ensures smooth communication and efficiency across all aspects of mining operations.Thomas Leen,chief security officer at B

68、HP,explained how IT-OT convergence is as much a cultural challenge as a technical one.In the traditional IT mindset,there is a tool or an application for every challenge,and a focus on standard processes,optimizing them from a cost and agility perspective.However,engineers in the OT world tend to fo

69、cus on processes for system reliability and people safety.These two perspectives need to merge and share best practices with each other.The evolving convergence of IT and OT networks introduces new cyber risks,as traditional IT networks prioritize service availability for the enterprise.BHP and Rio

70、Tinto had to boost their cybersecurity resources to address the technology challenges posed by this convergence.Fog computing moves closer to the edgeCompanies increasingly look to cloud computing to modernize and grow.Cloud helps them access emerging technologies that facilitate new revenue streams

71、,business models,and integration of acquisitions.However,mines operate in remote locations and deep under the surface,challenging network connectivity.To overcome this,mining companies are adopting fog computing,which links IoT sensors at the edge with centralized cloud systems,allowing local proces

72、sing without constant enterprise-level network connectivity.Boliden tried sensors to monitor its mines,the stability of its wells inside them,and mining operations.However,they were expensive,needed high maintenance,and were difficult to automate.The mining company went for a network of 500 cameras,

73、creating a strenuous,nonproductive task for humans to continuously monitor the video feed.Instead,it used edge computing with ML to integrate the camera feed with other sensor inputs and monitor the mines.Following the success of cameras with local decision-making,Boliden wanted to add gas measureme

74、nts,vibration sensors,and more such data sources to its edge computing setup.Vibration measurement and new bearings at its Aitik copper mine increased availability and avoided unplanned stoppages in the seven-kilometer-long conveyor belt.16|Mining Industry Outlook 2024External Document 2024 Infosys

75、Limited Knowledge InstituteBased on emerging technology trends and ongoing developments in the mining industry,we recommend the following for sustainable and safe operations:Collaboration:Industry players,governments,and local communities must collaborate to share knowledge,resources,and technology

76、to address challenges like resource scarcity and environmental impact.Companies are forming alliances with mining automation solution providers to develop shared infrastructure for mining operations.Collaborative efforts also include engaging local communities in decision-making processes.Komatsu fo

77、r example provides mining automation solutions beyond just autonomous trucks to include automated drilling and identification and rectification of maintenance and safety issues.RECOMMENDATIONS FOR SUSTAINABLE,SAFE MININGMaterial circularity:Mining companies should proactively plan and invest in circ

78、ularity,focusing on reverse logistics of end-of-life materials.This involves transporting valuable material back to manufacturers for reuse.Technologies to separate reusable materials from scrap are essential to facilitate circularity.Local decision-making:Mining is a risky business that needs quick

79、 decisions for safety and cost control.Communication with a central chain of command is a challenge due to the remote nature of operations in mines in hazardous terrains.Investment in local decision-making with technologies such as IIoT,edge,and fog computing,and AI/ML for autonomy are important for

80、 quick decision-making avoiding any time lags in communication,analysis,and action.Mining Industry Outlook 2024|17External Document 2024 Infosys Limited Knowledge InstituteAuthorsKapil Ravindrakumar Nanchahal|Vice President,Natural Resources Sector,InfosysJeff Kavanaugh|Global Head,Infosys Knowledge

81、 InstituteRamachandran S|Producer,Energy and Mining,Infosys Knowledge Institute18|Mining Industry Outlook 2024External Document 2024 Infosys Limited Knowledge InstituteAbout Infosys Knowledge InstituteThe Infosys Knowledge Institute helps industry leaders develop a deeper understanding of business a

82、nd technology trends through compelling thought leadership.Our researchers and subject matter experts provide a fact base that aids decision-making on critical business and technology issues.To view our research,visit Infosys Knowledge Institute at or email us at .Mining Industry Outlook 2024|19Exte

83、rnal Document 2024 Infosys Limited Knowledge Institute 2024 Infosys Limited,Bengaluru,India.All Rights Reserved.Infosys believes the information in this document is accurate as of its publication date;such information is subject to change without notice.Infosys acknowledges the proprietary rights of

84、 other companies to the trademarks,product names and such other intellectual property rights mentioned in this document.Except as expressly permitted,neither this documentation nor any part of it may be reproduced,stored in a retrieval system,or transmitted in any form or by any means,electronic,mechanical,printing,photocopying,recording or otherwise,without the prior permission of Infosys Limited and/or any named intellectual property rights holders under this document.For more information,contact I|NYSE:INFYStay Connected