《經濟學人智庫（EIU）：2025年全球金融服務展望：大寬松時代（英文版）（14頁）.pdf》由會員分享，可在線閱讀，更多相關《經濟學人智庫（EIU）：2025年全球金融服務展望：大寬松時代（英文版）（14頁）.pdf（14頁珍藏版）》請在三個皮匠報告上搜索。

1、7 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2024Report title goes hereSubtitle hereThe great easingFinancial services outlook 2025Our solutionsCountry AnalysisUnderstand the political,policy and economic outlook.Our Country Analysis service looks at the global dynamics that affect your organisation,en

2、abling you to operate effectively and plan for the future.Financial RiskGain unparalleled insights into the global financial landscape.Combining EIUs market-leading data and country expertise,our rigorous risk-modelling framework enables you to accurately identify risks to fiscal sustainability,curr

3、ency and the banking sector.Operational RiskPlan effectively with EIUs expert analysis and data.From detailed country risk assessments to customisable risk matrices,our service provides you with the tools needed to confidently anticipate and mitigate risks to your operations.Speaker BureauStrengthen

4、 your strategy and executive knowledge.Book EIUs experts for virtual or in-person events,training sessions,or decision-making meetings.Our briefings offer independent insights on political,economic and policy trends affecting your organisation.Intelligence that moves you forwardEIU,part of The Econo

5、mist Group,provides a forward-looking perspective on the global agenda.With over 75 years of expertise,it delivers political,economic and policy forecasts for 200 countries.EIUs insights,backed by a network of 400 analysts,help financial institutions,governments and multinational corporations make i

6、nformed decisions and navigate complex business environments.3 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 20243 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2024Contact us for more informationLondon Economist Intelligence The Adelphi 1-11 John Adam Street London WC2N 6HT United KingdomTel:+44(0)20 7576 8000

7、 E-mail:New YorkEconomist Intelligence 900 Third Avenue,16th Floor New York NY 10022 United StatesTel:+1 212 541 0500 E-mail:Hong Kong Economist Intelligence 1301 Cityplaza Four 12 Taikoo Wan Road Taikoo Shing Hong KongTel:+852 2585 3888 E-mail:Gurgaon Economist Intelligence 9th Floor Infinity Tower

8、 A DLF Cyber City Gurugram 122002 Haryana IndiaTel:+91 124 6409300 E-mail:Dubai Economist Intelligence PO Box No-450056 Office No-1301A Aurora Tower Dubai Media City Dubai United Arab EmiratesTel:+971 4 4463 147 E-mail:The full analysis in this report is available through our Country Analysis servic

9、e.To arrange a demonstration or discuss the content and features,please contact us or visit .4 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2024Financial services in 2025The great easing Policy rate cuts will ease conditions for borrowers,especially mortgage holders,as most central banks(except in Japan)

10、loosen monetary policy.Bank margins will decline,leading to lower dividend payouts,but the Basel III endgame will be eased or delayed further.Bond markets will rally as emerging markets attract fund flows,and equities will be supported by earning growth,particularly in the US.India and Singapore wil

11、l attract a wave of new equity listings,while Hong Kongs bourse will experience a resurgence.The rising risk of extreme weather events and heightened geopolitical tensions will raise reinsurance risk.Financial services outlook 2025After years of tightening monetary policy to combat inflation,central

12、 banks are now transitioning towards rate cuts,with further reductions anticipated in 2025.However,the pace of rate-cutting will differ between geographies.After reducing its policy rate sharply in 2024,the Federal Reserve(Fed,the US central bank)will push through further cuts totalling 50 points in

13、 2025.The European Central Bank(ECB)and the Bank of England(the UK central bank),which started cutting rates earlier this year,are likely to proceed more aggressively in 2025.Japan will be an exception to the global trend;we forecast that the Bank of Japan will further normalise its policy after end

14、ing negative rate territory in 2024,but will do so cautiously given weak domestic demand and the strain on the public finances from higher borrowing costs.These trends will influence financial markets across the world,easing borrowing costs and spurring investment activity,especially in mergers and

15、acquisitions.Falling interest rates will eat into bank margins,but bond markets will rally.5 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2024Financial services in 2025The great easingBorrowers,especially those with floating-rate mortgages,will benefit from lower interest rates.Companies with debt that n

16、eeds refinancing will also feel some relief as reduced interest expenses improve their cash flow and solvency.However,over-leveraged firms could still face challenges despite easing financial conditions.Banks enjoyed several years of strong profits when interest rates were high,but their profitabili

17、ty will decline in 2025 as these rates decline on deposits and loans.Shareholders dividends will also fall as a result.Small and medium-sized banksparticularly in the US and,to a lesser extent,the EUface a moderate-level risk of default on commercial real-estate loans.However,we expect corporate bor

18、rowing to rise further as workers return to the office,although mortgage underwriting rules will tighten,especially in the US.Regulators will tighten climate finance disclosure norms for large financial services companies,but these measures will not receive much pushback at this stage.Basel III impl

19、ementation will,however,be delayed,and additional capital requirements will be watered down significantly,as in the US and the UK this year.Commercial banks will further shrink their physical banking networks,including ATMs and branch offices.Personnel will also be reduced amid significant investmen

20、ts in new capabilities like artificial intelligence(AI);banks are already using AI to improve their predictive capabilities,but the technologys ability to increase the efficiency of the existing workforce will become visible as soon as next year.Cross-border consolidation in EU banking remains a dis

21、tant prospect,as little progress has been made on the currency unions banking and capital markets unions,although large financial services companies may seek to invest in their European counterparts.Domestic mergers and acquisitions are far more likely,such as that between Spains BBVA and Banco Saba

22、dell,in which regulators will prioritise ensuring systemic stability over protecting jobs that will be at risk in the amalgamation process.Bank margins will decline,but capital adequacy norms will be softened6 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2024Financial services in 2025The great easingFall

23、ing interest rates will boost fixed-income markets and securities,and the fund managers that handle these assets.Falling yields and,consequently,higher bond prices should lead to a bond market rally,making fixed income more attractive after years of underperformance.High-quality fixed income,includi

24、ng investment-grade corporate bonds,mortgage-backed securities and emerging-market sovereign debt,are expected to offer strong returns.Rate cuts in 2025 will also propel bond flows to emerging markets,reversing the outflows triggered by rate rises in recent years.Lower borrowing costs for emerging a

25、nd developing economies will encourage more Eurobond issuance,especially in regions like West Africa,where issuance already rose in early 2024.In the securities market,equities will be supported by earnings-driven growth,particularly in the US.Despite limited potential for valuation expansion,earnin

26、gs in US stocks should rise between the middle and end of the rate-cutting cycle.Japan and India present solid opportunities for investors seeking global diversification,although Chinas weakness could weigh on broader Asian markets.Real estate may also see renewed interest as lower interest rates ea

27、se borrowing costs,boosting property valuations and capital inflows.Property shares and funds in growth regions could provide diversification and capital appreciation opportunities as macroeconomic conditions stabilise in 2025,but there may be volatility as investors adjust to the timing and magnitu

28、de of rate cuts across regions.Rate cuts will fuel a bond market rallyUS$bnSource:World Bank,OECD,EIU.Copyright The Economist Intelligence Unit 2024.All rights reserved.Banks net interest income as%of assets20202122232425ChinaGermanyIndiaJapanUKUS2020212223242502004006008001,0000.00.51.01.52.02.53.0

29、3.5Banks net interest income will continue to rise.but net margins will plateau7 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2024Financial services in 2025The great easingCompanies the world over that are looking to go public will have more choice than ever,with easing interest rates opening up more ins

30、titutional wealth for investments.Economies in Asia Pacific markets like India,Japan and Singapore will see most of the action on initial public offerings(IPOs),owing to the development of deep domestic capital pools and local regulatory infrastructure.A wave of large-scale IPOs is scheduled for Ind

31、ia in 2025,with Swiggy(a food app aggregator)and LG Electronics(a South Korean multinational major appliance and consumer electronics corporation)poised to raise substantial funds through these listings.The countrys thriving economy,which is now outpacing Chinas,has attracted significant investor in

32、terest.With the appetite of Indias domestic investor base and consistent foreign institutional investments into the Indian stockmarket,2025 will be a record-breaking year for India IPOs.We also expect Hong Kongs IPO market to stage a comeback,especially with tech-focused IPOs.With consumer confidenc

33、e rising,mainland listings will play a major role.The Specialist Technology Companies regime,also known as Chapter 18C,which is a listing rule on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange(HKEX)that allows certain tech companies to list on the Main Board,will bump new listings.Regulations to support Chinas beleag

34、uered property market and a steady flow of capital from the mainland will support the rebound.Weaker premium growth,at a time of rising weather-related losses,will continue to affect insurers H1 2024 growth;%Nikkei 225(Japan)Nifty 50(India)Kuala Lumpur Composite(Malaysia)Kospi(South Korea)Hang Seng(

35、China)Straits Times(Singapore)Jakarta Composite(Indonesia)SET(Thailand)CSI 300(China)10.05.00.05.010.015.020.018.010.49.35.43.92.92.98.19.0Source:EIU.Japan and India are the major benefciaries of equity outfows from ChinaCopyright The Economist Intelligence Unit 2024.All rights reserved.India and Si

36、ngapore will dominate public offerings8 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2024Financial services in 2025The great easingprofitability in 2025.Conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine will also add to the claims pressure,prompting many insurers(and reinsurers)to avoid weather-related risks and

37、war risks.The heightened geopolitical risks will especially affect marine insurers,for whom claims have outpaced premiums since 2018.We also expect a rise in demand for personal property and casualty insurance in 2025 owing to the rise in natural disasters.According to Swiss Re,2023 was the fourth c

38、onsecutive year that global insured losses from natural catastrophes had exceeded US$100bn.Insured losses of US$60bn in the first half of 2024 were 62%above the ten-year average.Although El Nia could lower global temperatures slightly in 2025,climate change could still lead to tumultuous weather con

39、ditions.Claims are likely to rise sharply in the US,which accounts for nearly 44%of global insurance premiums.Insurers will continue to retreat from the rising risks,leaving governments with a dilemma.Many regulators contribute to market imbalances by capping damage insurance premiums and setting co

40、verage requirements.However,this makes policies for storms,floods and fires less attractive for providers,leaving market gaps.The efforts of government-backed insurers to fill in these gaps will become politicised in 2025,especially where housebuilders continue to build in high-risk areas.Rising wea

41、ther risk and geopolitics will raise reinsurance demandGross premiums,direct insurance(US$m)%change(gross premiums)Average claim costs,all claims(US$)%change(average claimcosts)2018202303,00020182023020201820230400k201820231020Source:The Nordic Association of Marine Insurers.Copyright The Economist

42、Intelligence Unit 2024.All rights reserved.Geopolitics and climate change will raise marine claim costsSlowing premium growth and rising claim cost pressures will persist in 20259 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2024Financial services in 2025The great easingEU clearing deadline:UK derivative

43、s clearing houses will lose access to the EU after June 2025,bringing to an end the extension granted after Brexit in order to minimise disruption for banks and asset managers.As a result,the London Stock Exchanges LCH unit will no longer be able to clear euro interest-rate derivatives,an instrument

44、 used extensively by EU-based companies to insure themselves against fluctuations in borrowing costs.The EU is attempting to reduce its reliance on clearing houses outside the blocmore than 70%of such operations take place outside the currency unionand raise the volume of EU-based operators.Basel en

45、dgame:The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision(BCBS)has set January 1st 2025 as the deadline for adoption of the final Basel III reforms,often referred to as“Basel endgame”.These reforms introduce a significant overhaul of banking regulations,including higher minimum capital requirements and enhan

46、ced risk management frameworks.However,widespread industry opposition and subsequent setbacks in the US,followed by a ripple effect in other BCBS jurisdictions,may delay full implementation.Real-time payments:Digital wallets will be the fastest-growing instant payment method globally,and the use of

47、cash will continue to decline as payments innovation accelerates.Account-to-account payments will dominate in India and Brazil,owing to lower transaction costs.However,Wero,the cross-border instant payment solution in Europe,is showing promise a year after its launch,and FedNow will gain traction in

48、 the US.Cross-border transactions with central bank digital currencies will also begin in earnest in 2025.Russia will conduct its first cross-border payments,and Brazil will launch the Drex,the digital version of the Real.Climate finance guidelines:Global and national regulators will continue to rai

49、se their climate finance targets in 2025.The World Bank intends to raise the climate finance component of its total financing to 45%in 2025.The ECB will continue to implement its 2024-25 climate and nature plan,assessing and monitoring banks progress on integrating climate risks into their prudentia

50、l frameworks.Large financial services companies in India will have to adhere to the climate risk disclosure plan in the 2025-26 financial year.What to watch10 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2024Financial services in 2025The great easingUS election:the impact on financial servicesTrump:If Do

51、nald Trump wins the US presidential election,efforts at deregulating the financial services industry will increase.However,as neither the Democratic nor the Republican parties have a decisive majority in the US legislature,the passage of any regulation will be difficult.Instead,Mr Trump will focus o

52、n a soft-touch regulatory approach,starting with replacing many of the regulatory heads,such as those at the SEC and CFTC,that have raised oversight and tightened enforcement of existing financial regulations.During his first term Mr Trump cut the budget for the Consumer Finance Protection Bureau(CF

53、PB)and reduced enforcement considerably.A second Trump administration would,however,further delay the introduction of Basel III regulations for the largest US banks,or abolish them altogether.Mr Trump is also a newly minted cryptocurrency proponent and would act as an enabler for related companies,f

54、irming their connection with real-world finance.A Trump administration could also grant fintech companies national banking charters,raising the risk for the banking system in the process.Although his approach to insurance and private equity unclear,the business environment created by his proposed po

55、licies of tax and policy rate cuts would benefit such companies.Harris:Should Kamala Harris,the Democrat candidate,win,her administration would maintain the same attitude towards financial services as that of the incumbent president,Joe Biden:greater oversight and tighter enforcement of existing reg

56、ulations.Ms Harris would also work towards strengthening consumer protections and reducing unnecessary charges,also known as junk fees,that some financial services companies charge customers.Many of the current heads of regulatory agencies,known for their proactive approach,would be retained or indi

57、viduals with a similar approach to regulation appointed.11 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2024Financial services in 2025The great easingCountry AnalysisGain insight into a countrys political,policy and economic outlook with our award-winning forecasts,analysis and data.Ms Harris would also

58、proceed to enforce the Basel III regulations,which have been watered down considerably after intense lobbying from the industry.Attempts would also be made to abolish the carried interest rate loophole that the private equity industry has protected zealously during the first Trump and Biden administ

59、rations.A Harris administration would also have a better relationship with the crypto industry,given that Ms Harris has met representatives from such companies,but outright fraud would be dealt with firmly.However,a Harris presidency would be less welcome by at least some parts of the financial serv

60、ices industry,such as insurance and private equity,than a second Trump administration,owing to Ms Harriss plans to raise capital gains taxes on the wealthiest individuals and adopt a data-centric approach to central bank policy.FintechInsuranceAsset managementBankingSource:EIU.EIUs weather forecast

61、for fnancial businesses in 202512 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2024Financial services in 2025The great easingMeet the EIU teamSwarup Gupta leads the EIUs coverage of the financial services industry,looking at the role and development of banking,insurance and financial systems worldwide.He

62、 has particular expertise on fintech,digital currencies and sustainable finance,and is responsible for EIUs sovereign ESG service.Swarup has a deep understanding of capital markets,especially in the US and Asia.He has presented to decision-makers at Fortune 100 companies,as well as at client webinar

63、s,and moderated large conventions across the Middle East and South Africa,on topics including financial regulation,ESG developments,digital payments,trade finance and the impact of the US election on the financial services sector.Swarup GuptaIndustry Manager and Lead analyst,financial services and E

64、SGSpecialist subjects Financial markets,Banking,Insurance,Fintech,Digital payments and Platform strategy,Cryptocurrencies and Central Bank Digital Currencies,Sustainable Finance and ESG InvestingLanguages English,Bengali,Hindi,UrduLocation GurgaonAna oversees The Economist Intelligence Units industr

65、y subscription services in London,managing websites,reports,data and forecasts across six industry sectors and acting as lead analyst for our healthcare and automotive analysis.Ana also works closely with clients in those two sectors,particularly on projects related to value-based health and healthc

66、are policymaking.Ana is an experienced analyst who has previously spent time specialising in global economic and business development as well as analysis of healthcare policy.She has a particular interest in the transition countries of Eastern Europe.Ana NichollsDirector of industry analysisSpeciali

67、st subjects Automotive,Business environment,HealthcareLanguages English,FrenchLocation London13 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 202413 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2024Visit or scan the QR codeNavigate an ever-changing global marketEIUs Country Analysis service assesses the politi

68、cal,policy and economic outlook.Our insights make sense of the global trends affecting your organisation.Connect to request a bespoke demonstration of our forward-looking intelligence.Copyright 2024 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited.All rights reserved.Neither this publication nor any part of

69、it may be reproduced,stored in a retrieval system,or transmitted in any form or by any means,electronic,mechanical,photocopying,recording or otherwise,without the prior permission of The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited.While every effort has been taken to verify the accuracy of this information,The Economist Intelligence Unit Ltd.cannot accept any responsibility or liability for reliance by any person on this report or any of the information,opinions or conclusions set out in this report.