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1、4 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2024Report title goes hereSubtitle hereFalling prices,but rising risksEnergy outlook 2025Our solutionsCountry AnalysisUnderstand the political,policy and economic outlook.Our Country Analysis service looks at the global dynamics that affect your organisation

2、,enabling you to operate effectively and plan for the future.Financial RiskGain unparalleled insights into the global financial landscape.Combining EIUs market-leading data and country expertise,our rigorous risk-modelling framework enables you to accurately identify risks to fiscal sustainability,c

3、urrency and the banking sector.Operational RiskPlan effectively with EIUs expert analysis and data.From detailed country risk assessments to customisable risk matrices,our service provides you with the tools needed to confidently anticipate and mitigate risks to your operations.Speaker BureauStrengt

4、hen your strategy and executive knowledge.Book EIUs experts for virtual or in-person events,training sessions,or decision-making meetings.Our briefings offer independent insights on political,economic and policy trends affecting your organisation.Intelligence that moves you forwardEIU,part of The Ec

5、onomist Group,provides a forward-looking perspective on the global agenda.With over 75 years of expertise,it delivers political,economic and policy forecasts for 200 countries.EIUs insights,backed by a network of 400 analysts,help financial institutions,governments and multinational corporations mak

6、e informed decisions and navigate complex business environments.3 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 20243 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2024Contact us for more informationLondon Economist Intelligence The Adelphi 1-11 John Adam Street London WC2N 6HT United KingdomTel:+44(0)20 7576 8

7、000 E-mail:New YorkEconomist Intelligence 900 Third Avenue,16th Floor New York NY 10022 United StatesTel:+1 212 541 0500 E-mail:Hong Kong Economist Intelligence 1301 Cityplaza Four 12 Taikoo Wan Road Taikoo Shing Hong KongTel:+852 2585 3888 E-mail:Gurgaon Economist Intelligence 9th Floor Infinity To

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9、vice.To arrange a demonstration or discuss the content and features,please contact us or visit .4 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2024Energy outlook 2025Falling prices,but rising risks Low economic growth will limit increases in global energy consumption to just 1.6%,with Europes demand part

10、icularly subdued.More than 250 GW of combined solar and wind capacity will be installed in 2025,much of it in China,as governments look to cut emissions and boost energy security.Demand for oil,gas and coal will accelerate in 2025,but with supplies also expanding,prices will moderate.Energy markets

11、will continue to face geopolitical risks amid conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine.Energy outlook 2025Energy markets are bracing for yet another year of geopolitical turbulence.Oil and gas prices will remain highly volatile with the ongoing war in the Middle East.The increasing risk that the con

12、flict expands to Iran and affects oil facilities there,although not our current forecast,is driving a surge in oil pricesIran is a large oil producer,with output of about 4m barrels/day.Furthermore,uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the US presidential election is adding nervousness to energy ma

13、rkets,given the significant implications for US and global energy policies.However,a bearish sentiment will largely drive energy markets in 2025.After a sluggish 2024 and amid stuttering growth in the global economy,we expect global energy demand to decelerate further(in kilotonnes of oil equivalent

14、),to just 1.6%.Developing economies,mainly in Asia but also in Latin America,the Middle East and Africa,will continue to be the main engines of growth,as their economies will surge and the decoupling of economic development and energy consumption has yet to happen there.Developed countries will show

15、 little,if any growth in energy consumption.This slowdown will be particularly acute in Europe,where we expect energy demand to be static in 2025 and decline in 2026 amid timid economic growth.Demand will be pulled down by the continued rollout of the ambitious energy-saving measures put in place in

16、 2022,during the energy crisis triggered by Russias invasion of Ukraine.In the Global energy demand will slow and prices will fall,barring an escalation in geopolitical risks.5 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2024Energy outlook 2025Falling prices,but rising risksUS,we expect energy consumpti

17、on to rise more rapidly if Donald Trump is elected president as emissions standards and other environmental regulations will be watered down.However,an administration led by Kamala Harris,the democratic party candidate,would continue with energy efficiency and transition policies,which will negative

18、ly affect energy consumption.The adoption of renewables will maintain momentumGlobalAsiaUSMCAEuropeSouth AmericaMiddle East and AfricaGlobalAsiaUSMCAEuropeSouth AmericaMiddle East and AfricaGlobal energy demand growth will decelerate in 2025Source:EIU.%change year on yearCopyright The Economist Inte

19、lligence Unit 2024.All rights reserved.GlobalAsiaUSMCAEuropeSouth AmericaMiddle East and AfricaGlobalAsiaUSMCAEuropeSouth AmericaMiddle East and Africa20242025202420252024202520242025012340 0.5 11.5 2 2.5 3 3.5412108 6 4 2 0 21 0.500.5 11.5 22.5 314Total energy demandOil demandCoal demandGas demandR

20、enewables capacity will continue to rise strongly in 2025,supported by falling costs and government policies.Concerns about fossil-fuel supply,which have risen since the onset of the war in Ukraine and the Israel-Hamas conflict,mean that the deployment of renewables is viewed by governments as a way

21、 to bolster energy security.Many will therefore continue with incentives and policies to boost investment in the sector.We forecast that more than 250 GW of combined solar and wind capacity will be installed in 20256 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2024Energy outlook 2025Falling prices,but r

22、ising risks2023 2024 2025 20262027 2028 2029 20302031 2032 203302,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,000CoalGasSolarWindHydroNuclearSource:EIU.Wind and solar are taking overPower generation by source;GWhCopyright The Economist Intelligence Unit 2024.All rights reserved.Moderating oil prices will support dem

23、and growthan impressive figure in historical terms,albeit lower than the record high set in 2023.Most of this capacity will be installed in China,which is a major source,as well as the main destination,of investment into renewables.Investment into solar panel production will be directed to other cou

24、ntries as trade barriers increase.However,not all is bright for renewables,as there are many risks.Inflation,supply-chain bottlenecks and high interest rates are all hitting the renewable energy sector,but the biggest barrier is the lack of grid infrastructure.Prices of fossil fuels are coming down

25、from their highs in 2022 and 2024,which will boost demand.However,after their recent weakness,we expect crude oil prices to bounce back to average more than US$77/barrel(dated Brent Blend)in 2025.Based on these forecasts,we expect global oil demand growth to accelerate in 2025,but to slow again in 2

26、026.Oil consumption has already peaked in Europe,and it will peak by the end of the decade in North America(or even earlier if Ms Harris becomes the US president).In neither of these regions has demand recovered to 2019 levels.However,oil consumption will continue to grow beyond 2033(the end of our

27、forecast period)in the Middle East,Africa and South America.7 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2024Energy outlook 2025Falling prices,but rising risksGas prices will continue to declineChange in demand,mtoe1005005010015020020232024202520262027202820292030203120322033OilGasCoalSource:EIU.Global

28、 coal and oil demand are set to peak within the next ten years,but gas consumption will remain strongCopyright The Economist Intelligence Unit 2024.All rights reserved.Oil demand in China will peak by the end of the decade as the country increasingly adopts electric vehicles(EVs).India will then bec

29、ome the main driver of global demand growth,owing to its growing population,higher purchasing power and rapid economic development,which will result in greater penetration of passenger cars,freight transport and air travel.This,in addition to a low penetration of EVs(we forecast that they will make

30、up only 7%of new-car sales by 2028),will lift oil demand.On the supply side,we expect global oil production to rise moderately in 2025.In June OPEC+announced that lower 2024 production quotas agreed in mid-2023 would be extended to end-2025.Additional voluntary cuts agreed by a core group of members

31、,led by Saudi Arabia,were recently extended to end-November,to be phased out incrementally between December 2024 and November 2025.However,we estimate that production in the US,Brazil and Guyana will continue surging,putting downward pressure on oil prices.Natural gas prices in Europe will continue

32、to trend downwards in 2025 amid weaker demand.After recovering in 2024,we expect that gas demand in Europe will decline again in 2025,mainly owing to surging power generation from renewables.Although new import 8 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2024Energy outlook 2025Falling prices,but risin

33、g risksEnergy markets will continue to face geopolitical risksWhat to watchNuclear power:The nuclear renaissance in the Western world could take shape in 2025,mainly driven by the need for clean and reliable power from new technologies such as data centres,AI and more sophisticated computing systems

34、.After many countries signed a declaration at COP28 to triple nuclear power capacity by 2050,Azerbaijan,the host of the upcoming COP29,has expressed its aim to discuss the expansion of nuclear energy.In September 2024 Microsoft,a software company,signed a contract with Constellation Energy to restar

35、t the idled Three Mile Island nuclear plant in Pennsylvania,US,to supply its increasing electricity needs.Solar profits:Solar panel prices hit a record low in 2024,driven by overcapacity in China,which produces 80%of global supply.However,geopolitical tensions capacity for liquefied natural gas(LNG)

36、is coming online,mainly in Germany,we expect that limited supply availability will continue putting a lid on gas demand expansion in the continent,restraining investment in the sector.We forecast that gas consumption will continue surging almost everywhere else,mainly at the expense of reduced coal

37、consumption.Only in Asia,where electricity consumption is rising rapidly,will coal consumption continue increasing,albeit at a declining rate.As renewables surge there,we forecast that Chinas coal demand will peak soon,although this will depend on climate conditions,as a severe drought will send coa

38、l-fired power generation surging to replace the lost hydropower output.This will make India the main driver of global coal consumption(India does not have plans to add gas-fired power generation capacity).Conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine,combined with concerns about growth in China and the U

39、S,will put a floor under oil prices in 2025,and also prompt some caution over investment in the energy sector.Moreover,cyber-warfareincluding attacks on energy infrastructurewill remain a threat to the sector,particularly in states that are embroiled in a broader military campaign.9 The Economist In

40、telligence Unit Limited 2024Energy outlook 2025Falling prices,but rising riskscould influence price movements in 2025.The gradual phase-out of Chinese government subsidies,combined with adverse tariffs in major export markets,could squeeze manufacturers profit margins,which are mostly already razor-

41、thin.Many Chinese firms that set up factories in ASEAN-4 countries(Cambodia,Malaysia,Thailand and Vietnam)have halted production since the US imposed new tariffs on imports from the region in June 2024.Solar investment:Some solar panel makers seeking to skirt punitive tariffs in Europe and the US ha

42、ve announced plans to build factories in North America and eastern Europe.Others have opted to mitigate risk by tapping markets in Latin America and Africa,alongside Belt and Road Initiative member countries.In the first half of 2024 shipments of solar panels to these regions surged,albeit from a lo

43、w base,indicating that fast-growing economies with rising energy demand could absorb excess supply from China,even if trade barriers persist elsewhere.This also creates opportunities for Chinese infrastructure firms to participate in grid redevelopment projects in those countries,extending Beijings

44、influence.Country AnalysisGain insight into a countrys political,policy and economic outlook with our award-winning forecasts,analysis and data.10 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2024Energy outlook 2025Falling prices,but rising risksUS election:the impact on energyTrump:If Donald Trump is re

45、-elected,his administration will weaken environmental regulation,reduce subsidies for renewable energy and EVs,and remove barriers to oil and gas production.This would lift oil and gas demand,and slow the decline in coal consumption and the adoption of solar,wind and other renewables.Mr Trump has pl

46、edged to repeal the flagship climate regulation of his predecessor,Joe Biden,the Inflation Reduction Act(IRA)of 2022,but would face opposition from Republican states that have benefited from the acts incentives.Instead,we believe that a Trump administration would be more likely to change how IRA sub

47、sidies and other federal regulations are implemented.In terms of international climate commitments,we expect Mr Trump to cease cooperating with the COP process,as he did in his first administration,and to water down,if not scrap altogether,Mr Bidens ambitious emissions targets.A Trump government wou

48、ld oppose international efforts to accelerate the shift away from fossil fuelsa stance that could encourage other countries to backslide on their own climate pledges.Financial assistance to developing countries to boost their energy transition and improve adaptation to climate change would also suff

49、er.Harris:If Kamala Harris becomes president,we expect US policy to continue prioritising the fight against climate change and the adoption of renewable energy.Ms Harris would probably keep to the Bidens administrations target of an emission-free power sector by 2035.Her administration would also ma

50、intain the USs current Paris Agreement pledge of reducing emissions to 50-52%below 2050 levels by 2030 and achieving net-zero emissions by 2050.Ms Harris will also continue to fund the IRA,offering grants,loans,rebates and other incentives for energy-transition investments.This would boost the adopt

51、ion of renewable energy generation and grid capacity,EV manufacturing and charging infrastructure,new technologies such as carbon capture and storage,and clean hydrogen.Government programmes could be expected to invest US$370bn by 2030,and private investment is expected to exceed US$1trn.11 The Econ

52、omist Intelligence Unit Limited 2024Energy outlook 2025Falling prices,but rising risksRenewablesCoalNuclearOil and gasSource:EIU.EIUs weather forecast for energy businesses in 2025US total installed solar capacity,GWUS total installed capacity,wind and solar,GWSource:EIU.Copyright The Economist Inte

53、lligence Unit 2024.All rights reserved.US total installed wind capacity,GW0501001502002503002023252729313320232425262728293031322033120120120140140140160160160180180180200200200220220220240240240TrumpTrumpTrumpHarrisHarrisHarrisTrumpHarris12 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2024Energy outlook

54、 2025Falling prices,but rising risksMeet the EIU teamNicolas Daher works for EIU as Lead Energy Analyst.He specialises in energy and climate change issues,covering energy markets and commodities,the energy transition,and energy policies and economics.Nicolas leads the EIUs energy service,which provi

55、des comprehensive forecasts of demand and supply across the entire energy mix at a global and national level.He also writes and edits articles for the service.In addition,he is in charge of the production of EIU Special Reports on energy topics.He offers commentary on energy topics to media outlets

56、and speaks at conferences.Nicolas DaherLead Energy AnalystSpecialist subjects Global energy markets,Energy commodities,the Energy transition,Climate Change,Energy policies and economicsLanguages English,SpanishLocation LondonAna oversees The Economist Intelligence Units industry subscription service

57、s in London,managing websites,reports,data and forecasts across six industry sectors and acting as lead analyst for our healthcare and automotive analysis.Ana also works closely with clients in those two sectors,particularly on projects related to value-based health and healthcare policymaking.Ana i

58、s an experienced analyst who has previously spent time specialising in global economic and business development as well as analysis of healthcare policy.She has a particular interest in the transition countries of Eastern Europe.Ana NichollsDirector of industry analysisSpecialist subjects Automotive

59、,Business environment,HealthcareLanguages English,FrenchLocation London13 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 202413 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2024Visit or scan the QR codeNavigate an ever-changing global marketEIUs Country Analysis service assesses the political,policy and economi

60、c outlook.Our insights make sense of the global trends affecting your organisation.Connect to request a bespoke demonstration of our forward-looking intelligence.Copyright 2024 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited.All rights reserved.Neither this publication nor any part of it may be reproduced,s

61、tored in a retrieval system,or transmitted in any form or by any means,electronic,mechanical,photocopying,recording or otherwise,without the prior permission of The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited.While every effort has been taken to verify the accuracy of this information,The Economist Intelligence Unit Ltd.cannot accept any responsibility or liability for reliance by any person on this report or any of the information,opinions or conclusions set out in this report.