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1、The Future of ChildhoodThe State of the Worlds Children 2024in a Changing WorldiThe State of the Worlds Children 2024ForewordIn a world facing so many present-day challenges,one might ask why UNICEF is devoting this edition of The State of the Worlds Children to the future,specifically to the world

2、in which children will live in 2050.To answer that question,it is worth revisiting the first edition of this report,published in 1980.From that report,the words of one of my predecessors,James P.Grant,UNICEFs third Executive Director and global leader of the child survival agenda,are worth quoting a

3、t length:“An important part of UNICEFs task is to monitor the trends which affect the worlds children,to extrapolate those trends into a picture of the future,to re-examine them in order to determine what kinds of changes in the present might improve the future,and to allocate its resources to the p

4、oints of maximum leverage in bringing those changes about.”In the almost 45 years since those words were written,UNICEFs mission has not changed:We continue to monitor the trends that are shaping and reshaping the lives of children and young people,and we go on working and advocating for change toda

5、y with the aim of building a better world for the children and young people of tomorrow.This report picks up the baton of Jim Grants 1980 report and carries it forward.The theme of that earlier report was From here to 2000;the theme of ours is From here to 2050.In many ways,the world of 2050 will be

6、 very different from todays.It will be a world where,in many high-income countries,children will account for a relatively small share of the population.As we move further into the twenty-first century,the future of childhood will increasingly be in Africa:By 2100,there will be more children on the A

7、frican continent than anywhere else in the world.Are we ready for such a world?Africa has made important gains for children in recent decades,but major issues persist,particularly the learning crisis.If Africa does not do more to develop the skills and enormous potential of its children and young pe

8、ople,it risks squandering the possibility of the demographic dividend.Recruiting and training more teachers and equipping them and their students with advanced technologies,including artificial intelligence(AI),may help bridge these learning gaps by 2050.But that potential has not yet been realized.

9、The challenges facing children and their communities will not be confined to a single continent they will be global.Overcoming them and ensuring a bright,secure future for every child will be made still more challenging by another of the megatrends detailed in this report:the climate and environment

10、al crises.Sadly,this is not just a future problem:UNICEF estimates that in recent years,the equivalent of about 20,000 children a day worldwide have been displaced by floods and storms exacerbated by climate change.These numbers will only grow,as will the many other deadly impacts of climate change

11、on childrens health and development and on their communities.Catherine RussellUNICEF Executive DirectorForeword iiThe world already knows what it needs to do to limit the worst impacts of climate change.Youth leaders have been forceful and rightly so in urging national leaders to stick to their clim

12、ate commitments.To ignore those calls is to betray the futures of children and young people.We cannot allow that to happen.Even if the world of 2050 is different from todays,and it will be,it also risks being more of the same.We continue to live in a world where childrens lives are being devastated

13、by war,conflict and violence in the Democratic Republic of the Congo,Gaza,Haiti,Lebanon,Myanmar,the Sudan,Ukraine and others.The list is depressingly long.We also continue to live in a world where far too many children suffer poverty and discrimination and where women and girls are subjected to gend

14、er-based and sexual violence and deprived of opportunities to meet their full potential.These multiple assaults on the well-being,security and dreams of children fly in the face of commitments made in the Convention on the Rights of the Child(CRC),adopted exactly 35 years ago.By ratifying that frame

15、work,the worlds leaders acknowledged that all children have inalienable rights.And they promised that their governments would protect and uphold those rights.Sadly,those promises often fall far short.In the face of such headwinds,it is easy to feel defeated.But nothing is set in stone.The gloomiest

16、scenarios are not inevitable.We can set a course that will take us to a better world for our children and young people.We know from the tangible progress we have achieved so far that we can build a better world for children.With resolve and global cooperation,we can shape a future where every child

17、is healthy,educated and protected.Our children deserve no less.iiiThe State of the Worlds Children 2024ContentsForeword iIntroduction:From here to 2050 1Chapter 1:Three megatrends shaping childrens futures 6Demographic transition 8The climate and environmental crises 14Frontier technologies 18Chapte

18、r 2:Children in the world of 2050 24Child survival and life expectancy 27Socioeconomic conditions 29Education 33Gender equality 38Conflict 38Urbanization 40Climate and environmental hazards 43Chapter 3:The future is ours to shape 45How do we reach the best scenario for children?46Meeting the megatre

19、nds 48Conclusion 52Where to start?52Endnotes 55Technical annex 60Acknowledgements 68Introduction 1IntroductionFrom here to 20502The State of the Worlds Children 2024The future is now.The carbon we pour into our atmosphere today will shape the climate of the future.The technologies we develop today a

20、nd the policies we develop to govern them will help shape how we learn,work and communicate.They will affect the well-being of our children.The demographic trends of today will help shape the population patterns of societies tomorrow.So,the future is now we are laying its foundations today.It is imp

21、ortant that we ask ourselves:What will be in that future?What will the world be like for children in 2050?And what can we do today to ensure the best possible future for every child?These are the questions at the heart of this years The State of the Worlds Children report.Megatrends transforming our

22、 world We cannot know for certain what the future holds.But we can examine the forces and trends shaping our world today and reflect on how they might shape the future.No list of these elements can be complete;after all,our world is complex,and so are the forces and trends shaping it.For example,in

23、the years since the pandemic,a collision of political,social and economic trends has fuelled a global polycrisis made up of intensifying challenges to democracy,fragmentation in the multilateral system and a debt crisis,which is“unsustainable and a recipe for social unrest”,according to United Natio

24、ns Secretary-General Antnio Guterres.1Important commitments on many of these issues were made at the United Nations Summit of the Future in September 2024.The Pact for the Future,adopted at the Summit,states that the success of future generations is contingent on“eliminating the intergenerational tr

25、ansmission of poverty and hunger,inequality and injustice,and acknowledging the special challenges faced by the most vulnerable countries.”2 From the long list of forces and trends shaping the world,this report focuses on three long-term,global megatrends:demographics,climate and environmental crise

26、s,and frontier technologies.These were chosen because UNICEF and other major actors including other United Nations agencies and leading private sector analysts3 believe they will be critically important in shaping the world for children(see Chapter 1)over the next quarter of a century.A global demog

27、raphic transition is moving us towards a world where the number of children is plateauing by the 2050s,the world will be home to about as many children as it is today,around 2.3 billion.In some societies,children will account for fewer than 1 in 10 members of the population,raising questions about t

28、heir visibility and respect for their views and rights.In others,large populations of children and young people will offer potential demographic dividends.In the coming decades,urbanization will continue to rise.The second megatrend is the climate and environmental crises a complex mix of crises inv

29、olving climate change,pervasive pollution and biodiversity loss that are already reshaping our world.4 Their impacts will only grow.For example,exposure to raised temperatures It is important that we ask ourselves:What will the world be like for children in 2050?Introduction 3because of heatwaves po

30、ses a particular risk to childrens health and well-being.More children will be at risk of chronic respiratory problems like asthma and cardiovascular diseases.And they will be living in places at greater risk of exposure to droughts,cyclones and floods,where a lack of safe water and food could becom

31、e the new normal.The final megatrend is frontier technologies,which will continue transforming whole swathes of our lives.Connectivity and digital skills could equip millions of children for the economy of the future.Artificial intelligence(AI)and neurotechnology may drive sweeping change in educati

32、on and health care.Green technologies have the potential to limit the worst impacts of climate change and support the transition to a low-carbon,more sustainable future.Vaccine and medical breakthroughs could save millions more childrens lives.But these visions of technologys upsides can only be rea

33、lized with the right incentives,governance and accountability mechanisms in place.Otherwise,we can expect missed opportunities or even negative impacts on children.Young voicesChildren have the right to express their views including on matters that affect them.Throughout this report about the future

34、 of childhood,we share the perspectives of children and young people in their own words.Some comment on the megatrends and their impact on children today and in the decades to come.Others share their vision for a sustainable,equitable and peaceful future and their thoughts on how to achieve it.SOWC

35、2024 gathered these perspectives from a UNICEF U-Report global survey,5 as well as from the 2023 Youth Foresight Fellows a group of young foresight practitioners working with UNICEF Innocenti Global Office of Research and Foresight.6 The worlds children in 2050Drawing on these three megatrends and m

36、any other socioeconomic indicators(see Chapter 2),UNICEF commissioned the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital to analyse scenarios using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSPs)model to explore how the world might look for children in 2050.These scenarios are not predictions,b

37、ut an exploration of possibilities based on different assumptions about the future.They reflect a certain level of variability in areas like economic growth and demographic trends,among others.What they cannot reflect are the unknowns such as possible pandemics,economic shocks and technological game

38、 changers.In other words,the world is unpredictable:After all,who in March 2019 could have predicted that,within a year,children around the world would be locked out of school because of a global health crisis?Each possible future reflects a world that is very different from todays.For example,in a

39、business-as-usual scenario based on current trend lines,children in the 2050s will live in societies with fewer children and more adults.More of the worlds children will live in Africa,more will live in cities and more will go to school.Many are projected to live in communities that are at lower ris

40、k of prolonged subnational conflict and that have made some progress towards achieving gender equality.Overwhelmingly,however,the children of 2050 will live in places that are far more exposed to climate risks.The numbers in the business-as-usual scenario are stark:About eight times as many children

41、 are projected to live in countries at high risk of exposure to extreme These scenarios are not predictions,but an exploration of possibilities based on different assumptions about the future.4The State of the Worlds Children 2024heatwaves in the 2050s,compared with the number of children exposed at

42、 the start of the century.The consequences for childrens health and well-being and for the stability and resilience of their communities are profound.Other scenarios are even more worrying.They are potential futures where,based on the decisions made today,the share of children completing primary sch

43、ooling in the 2050s is lower;where barely one in two children completes secondary education;where more children live in poorly resourced settings than do today;and where the risk of exposure to extreme heatwaves is projected to be 13.5 times higher.The next 25 yearsSuch visions of the future must gi

44、ve us pause.But they should not fill us with despair.For there are other,much more optimistic,scenarios for how the future could unfold.We dont just need projections to tell us this,we can take lessons from history.Consider the progress of this past half-century alone:Under-5 mortality has dropped 6

45、0 per cent in the past 30 years and malnutrition has decreased by 45 per cent.7 And,despite the setbacks of the pandemic period,rising vaccination coverage has saved countless lives an estimated 31 million lives through measles immunizations alone.8 But this report sets its eyes on the future.As we

46、near the end of the first quarter of the twenty-first century,we look to the next 25 years,to the year 2050,and ask ourselves:How can we best secure a future for the children of 2050 in which they survive,thrive and meet their full potential?Young voices“Our future hinges on your decisions today.Emb

47、race renewable energy,protect biodiversity,and invest in health care and education.Lets build a world where prosperity is shared equitably,and where every individual can thrive.”U-Reporter,20,male,IndiaSetting our courseOur guide for building the best possible future for every child must be,first an

48、d foremost,the Convention on the Rights of the Child(CRC).Adopted 35 years ago,the CRC has supported the betterment of countless childrens lives around the world.The CRC remains as relevant as ever today,at a time when the dangers to children threaten“to undermine the integrity of international stan

49、dards pertaining to children”,in the words of Secretary-General Guterres.9 It is consistently a touchstone for governments,the United Nations,multilateral systems,businesses and civil society as they develop policies,approaches and practices to the challenges of today and tomorrow.The CRCs core prin

50、ciples are clear:Non-discrimination underlines the duty to serve the needs of and to provide opportunities to every child.The intention to serve the best interests of the child represents a litmus test for decisions taken by legislature,courts of law,businesses and other actors where they relate to

51、childrens well-being.The right to life,survival and development emphasizes the need to support every facet of a childs growth,including their physical and mental health and their social and cultural situation.And the principle to foreground the views of the child reflects the importance of ensuring

52、childrens voices are heard and taken seriously in matters that affect them.Introduction 5These principles are reflected in this reports recommendations for how to meet the challenges and opportunities posed by the megatrends of today and tomorrow(see Chapter 3).These recommendations include:As more

53、societies move through the demographic transition,investment in health,education and skills will be vital to harness the potential demographic dividend.In an increasingly urban world,we also need to focus on developing cities that are more sustainable,resilient,clean,safe and nurturing for children.

54、In addition,in societies where adults increasingly outnumber children,we must find innovative ways to ensure rights and equity across generations.The climate and environmental crises demand action on multiple fronts.We need to develop and expand climate-resilient infrastructure,especially for school

55、s,health-care facilities and emergency shelters,and improve the resilience of essential services such as nutrition,social protection,education,and water,sanitation and hygiene.We need to invest in green energy to accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels and protect children from hazards such

56、 as air pollution,toxic metals,chemicals and hazardous waste.And we need to ensure that childrens unique vulnerabilities and needs are reflected in environmental decision-making,including climate financing,policy and planning.To meet the challenges and take advantage of the possibilities of frontier

57、 technologies,we urgently need to bridge the digital divide and build childrens digital skills,especially in societies where generations of children are being left behind in the digital revolution.Governments and businesses also need to invest in technology designed to benefit children,safeguard the

58、m and protect their best interests,while taking into account the needs and views of children themselves.Laws must be adopted or updated to protect children against the risks of emerging technologies.The megatrends with which the world is contending will affect the lives of everyone.But no one will f

59、eel their impact more than our youngest generations.They must be empowered to be agents of change as we take on these challenges.That is why the priorities set out above reflect,in part,the thinking of the many young people who have worked with UNICEF Innocenti Global Office of Research and Foresigh

60、t to imagine the future and how we can shape it for the better.Their voices and views are reflected throughout this report.Our responsibilityAnyone who reads the headlines knows that we are facing a major,collective struggle to solve the problems of today.Some might wonder,then,about the wisdom of t

61、rying to take on the challenges of tomorrow.But these are,in fact,also the challenges of today and they urgently need our attention if we want to improve childrens lives now and in the years ahead.Why should we address these challenges?The best answer comes from 15-year-old Aliaksandr Piatrou,who wa

62、snt yet born when this century started.As part of a letter-writing competition organized by UNICEF and the Universal Postal Union,he pledged to future generations:“As your predecessor,I understand that I have a huge responsibility for your wonderful future.I promise to do everything possible so that

63、 you can live in a happy,cloudless world.”10 The future is now,and our responsibilities are clear.Now is the time to shape a better future for every child.The future is now,and our responsibilities are clear.6The State of the Worlds Children 2024Chapter 1Three megatrends shaping childrens futuresThr

64、ee megatrends 7To understand how the worlds children will live in 2050,we examine three forces that will shape their lives in the next quarter-century:demographic shifts,the climate and environmental crises,and frontier technologies.These three interconnected megatrends long-term,global forces of tr

65、ansformation1 are already profoundly impacting childrens lives.As other global institutions and businesses have recognized,the influence of these megatrends will only grow.2 Each one will impact childrens daily experiences by 2050 how they live,learn,interact and develop.The megatrends are:Demograph

66、ic transition:In the coming decades,all parts of the world will experience population ageing,but the number of children will grow dramatically in some regions.Such shifts demand urgent policy and resource adjustments to address the needs of children in evolving population structures and environments

67、.Implementing effective education,health and social programmes that are tailored to these emerging demographic realities is essential.The climate and environmental crises:The triple planetary crisis of climate change,biodiversity loss,and pervasive pollution and waste have propelled the planet and h

68、umanity to a critical tipping point.3 The world is not on track to reach net zero emissions by 2050,which is the goal set by the Paris Agreement to preserve a liveable planet.4 Further delays to action will intensify the impact on children,as they will raise the costs of adaptation and mitigation.Bo

69、ld measures must be promptly implemented to safeguard current and future generations.5Frontier technologies:Many transformative technologies are advancing at an exponential rate.6 To ensure that every child can take advantage of these breakthroughs from AI to green technologies the necessary infrast

70、ructure and resources must be put in place.To ensure every child is protected from the risks associated with these technologies,the necessary laws and governance structures must also be put in place.Regulations and strategic incentives for technology,pharmaceutical and green energy companies are als

71、o needed to maximize benefits for every child,while mitigating potential inequities or harms.These three megatrends will have profound,long-term impacts on economies,societies and the planet and the worlds children.Their convergence will create ripple effects across society and impact other cruciall

72、y important trends like inequality,migration and urbanization.For example,demographic shifts and climate change directly influence migration patterns and urban growth,while the interplay of all three megatrends has a knock-on effect on economic and financial conditions and policy decisions that cont

73、ribute to inequality.By focusing on these key drivers of change,we can better grasp their far-reaching consequences for children,today and tomorrow,and address the complex challenges that will shape the future for generations to come.Young voices“The future isnt just about shiny new technologies.In

74、many contexts its about something far more basic,like the need for infrastructure to cope with the realities of global heating.Rising temperatures are already threatening childrens right to education and play.”Ijun Kim,27,Senior Youth Foresight Fellow,Republic of KoreaThese three megatrends will hav

75、e profound,long-term impacts on economies,societies and the planet and the worlds children.8The State of the Worlds Children 2024Demographic transitionThe future of childhood is directly linked to historic demographic shifts underway in the world today.Human beings are living longer,having fewer chi

76、ldren and moving frequently within and between countries.These patterns,and the way in which they differ across regions,will fundamentally shape childrens lives in the future,and will hold both opportunities and threats to their well-being.The statistics in this section are based on estimates and pr

77、ojections by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs,which consider three factors:mortality,fertility and international migration.7 Changes in the first two factors are central to the demographic transition.How many children?In the 2050s,the number of children under age 18 in th

78、e world is predicted to be roughly the same as today:about 2.3 billion.However,depending on future patterns of fertility,mortality and international migration,the eventual number may actually lie between 1.7 billion and 3 billion(see Figure 1.1).Meanwhile,the adult population is projected to grow to

79、 around 7.5 billion in the 2050s.Globally,the population of older persons,and the share of older persons,will grow.8 By 2050,the number of people over the age of 65 will have reached about 1.6 billion this Demographic transition9is more than double the figure from 2021(761 million),with the share ri

80、sing from 1 in 10 people to 1 in 6.9The stable projections of the total number of children conceal a regional shift.In the 2000s,the largest child populations were in South Asia,East Asia and the Pacific,and Latin America and Caribbean.In the 2050s,however,most of the worlds children will live in Ea

81、stern and Southern Africa,West and Central Africa,and South Asia,regions that currently contain most of the worlds poorest countries.10 By the 2050s,more than a third of the worlds children will live in four countries:China,India,Nigeria and Pakistan.And just 10 countries will be home to half of the

82、 worlds children (see Figure 1.3).India and China will remain the two countries with the most children in the 2050s,with an average of 350 million in India and 141 million in China.Nonetheless,the number of children will have dropped by about 106 million in India and by 203 million in China.Demograp

83、hic transitionThe demographic transition refers to the combined result of longer lifespans and smaller family sizes.11 The early stage of the transition features population growth fuelled by dropping mortality rates and high fertility rates.In the next phase,there are higher numbers of births than d

84、eaths and population growth continues.Population growth then flattens as birth and death rates come into balance at lower levels.Subsequently,if fertility drops below the replacement rate(2.1 live births per woman),12 the number of births will be fewer than the number of deaths and the population wi

85、ll shrink.13 Figure 1.1 Patterns of growth and plateaus in child and adult populations from the 2000s to the 2050sPopulation(billions)2000s2010s2020s2030s2040s2050sAdultsChildren4.32.32.32.42.32.32.35.15.86.57.17.5012345678Note:The solid line shows the medium(or baseline)variant;the shading shows th

86、e range from low to high variants.Source:United Nations,Department of Economic and Social Affairs,Population Division,World Population Prospects,2024 revision(WPP 2024).10The State of the Worlds Children 2024Figure 1.2 Child population in the 2000s compared with child population in the 2050s in low-

87、,medium-and high-variant trajectories,by region 204060801002000s2010s2020s2030s2040s2050s50010203040Other2000s2010s2020s2030s2040s2050s1200Western EuropePopulation(millions)4239353130309391887977762000s2010s2020s2030s2040s2050s6000100200300400500West and Central Africa2000s2010s2020s2030s2040s2050s1

88、20020406080100North AmericaPopulation(millions)1902503113614024318082807779802000s2010s2020s2030s2040s2050s300050100150200250Middle East and North Africa2000s2010s2020s2030s2040s2050s8000200400600South AsiaPopulation(millions)1561751982052122176336546386175995722000s2010s2020s2030s2040s2050s10002040

89、6080Europe and Central Asia2000s2010s2020s2030s2040s2050s200050100150Latin America and CaribbeanPopulation(millions)7673767067671971911791631521412000s2010s2020s2030s2040s2050s6000100200300400500East Asia and the Pacific2000s2010s2020s2030s2040s2050s5000100200300400Eastern and Southern AfricaPopulat

90、ion(millions)557520482377336316187234282326360385Note:See technical annex for a list of countries in each region;shading shows the range from low to high variants.Source:UNICEF and the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital,based on data from the United Nations,Department of Eco

91、nomic and Social Affairs,Population Division,WPP 2024.Demographic transition11While the number of children in the world may be stable,the share of children in the population is expected to decrease in every region in all scenarios(see Figure 1.5).In Eastern and Southern Africa and West and Central A

92、frica,the share of children will fall from around 50 per cent in the 2000s to less than 40 per cent in the 2050s.In other regions,less than a third of the population will be under 18,and in three regions East Asia and the Pacific,Western Europe and Other only around one in six people will be a child

93、.Conditions for a demographic dividendAnother indicator that can help us understand the potential impact of these demographic shifts is the dependency ratio,which is the combined number of children(under the age of 15)and older people(aged 65 and over)compared with the number of working-age adults(a

94、ged 15 to 64).14 When the share of working-age adults in the population grows,the dependency ratio falls,creating opportunities for economic growth often referred to as a demographic dividend.Figure 1.3 Countries with the largest number of children in the 2050s,medium variantCountryNumber of childre

95、n(millions)Share of children in country population(%)Share of global child population(%)India35020.714.9China14111.76Nigeria13235.05.6Pakistan12932.95.5Democratic Republic of the Congo10142.04.3Ethiopia8234.13.5United States7318.93.1Indonesia7222.43.1United Republic of Tanzania5639.42.4Bangladesh492

96、2.52.1Figure 1.4 Countries with the largest share of children in the population in the 2050s,medium variantCountryShare of global child population(%)Number of children(millions)Chad42.518Central African Republic42.35Democratic Republic of the Congo42101Somalia41.617Mali41.221Angola40.533United Repub

97、lic of Tanzania39.456Niger39.322Mozambique38.727Cte dIvoire38.423Source:UNICEF and the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital based on data from the United Nations,Department of Economic and Social Affairs,Population Division,WPP 2024.12The State of the Worlds Children 2024Betwe

98、en 2025 and 2050,the dependency ratio is expected to fall in West and Central Africa and Eastern and Southern Africa,from very high levels by global standards,creating the potential for this economic boost.15 However,patterns vary and the least-developed countries tend to experience a slower demogra

99、phic transition,and hence more limited opportunities.16Dependency ratios will be stable in two regions the Middle East and North Africa and South Asia.17 For countries that have already completed the demographic transition,dependency ratios may rise,though the trajectory will depend heavily on labor

100、 force participation rates and other socioeconomic factors.Shifting populationsInternational migration is also a critical aspect of trends shaping the future of childhood.18 In 2020,an estimated 281 million people migrated internationally,including 36 million children.19 Migration can offer benefits

101、 for children through increased safety from conflict and climate crises,as well as improved educational opportunities.But it also carries dangers,including increased risk of exploitation and separation from caregivers.Figure 1.5 Three trajectories for the share of children in populations from the 20

102、00s and the 2050s,by region HighLowMedium2050s2000s50010203040OtherShare of children inthe population(%)2000s2050sWestern Europe2000s2050s50010203040Middle East and North AfricaShare of children inthe population(%)2000s2050sSouth Asia2000s2050sWest and Central Africa2000s2050sNorth America2000s2050s

103、50010203040East Asia and the Pacific2000s2050sEastern and Southern Africa2000s2050sEurope and Central Asia2000s2050sLatin America and CaribbeanShare of children inthe population(%)20112916513935312825221736241915413127234119232751344137242214192018101520201216Note:See technical annex for list of cou

104、ntries in each region.Source:UNICEF and the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital based on data from United Nations,Department of Economic and Social Affairs,Population Division,WPP 2024.Demographic transition13Population movements within countries including urbanization and in

105、ternal displacement are not covered in the above estimates,but they are also important factors shaping childhoods.Between the 2000s and the 2050s,the percentage of children living in cities is projected to rise by a third,reaching 1.3 billion in the 2050s.By this point,three in five children are exp

106、ected to live in urban settings.Urbanization and its consequences for children are discussed more fully in Chapter 2.At the same time,it is estimated that 117 million people are currently displaced.20 In 2023,20.8 million children were newly displaced within their countries,mostly because of conflic

107、t and disasters.21 Amid increasing environmental disruptions,these figures are likely to grow.Young voices“Entering a new phase of our world is hard indeed.However,choose humanity and empathy to help create a better future for all of us.”U-Reporter,16,female,IndonesiaImplications for childrenLooking

108、 ahead to 2050,the demographic shifts described above will have profound effects on childhood and present opportunities and threats to childrens well-being.These effects will vary according to each countrys context and the stage it has reached in the demographic transition.Whether a country will be

109、able to take advantage of the potential demographic dividend depends on whether it makes the investments needed for inclusive economic growth.In countries with a rising proportion of working-age individuals like many in sub-Saharan Africa the priorities should be on education,health care and job cre

110、ation to capitalize on their demographic advantage while expanding opportunities for all segments of society.By contrast,many developed countries,having already benefited from their demographic dividend,will need to support an ageing population.However,it will still be vital to maintain child-respon

111、sive spaces,all while meeting the needs of an ageing population and a growing number of single-person households.22 In other words,even as children make up a smaller and smaller share of the population,their needs must remain priorities.Education,health care and social services including birth regis

112、tration and public services such as schools,childcare and leisure facilities must remain available and accessible.In addition,while an ageing population will undoubtedly present challenges,nations can leverage their resources to adapt.With the right support in place,demographic changes can bring new

113、 prospects for intergenerational dialogue and cooperation.Childrens close relationships will also be affected.They will be less likely to grow up with many,or any,siblings.On the other hand,increasing life expectancy will mean that ongoing relationships with grandparents often highly valued by child

114、ren may become more common.Digital technologies may also play an increasingly important role in enabling children to maintain friendships with people of their own age.The demographic shifts described above will have profound effects on childhood and present opportunities and threats to childrens wel

115、l-being.14The State of the Worlds Children 2024The climate and environmental crisesWith humanity breaching critical ecological limits,children now are coping with a more unpredictable,hazardous environment than children of any previous generation.23 Amid climate destabilization,biodiversity collapse

116、 and widespread pollution,the world faces a triple planetary crisis,with risks that will only intensify in the future.24From before they take their first breath,children are impacted by their environment.25 Their developing brains,lungs and immune systems are uniquely susceptible to pollution,diseas

117、e and extreme weather.26 As they grow,every realm of childrens lives from education to nutrition,from safety and security to mental health is shaped by the climate and environment.The scale and scope of the problem is alarming.Approximately 1 billion children nearly half of the worlds children live

118、in countries that face high risk of climate and environmental hazards.27 Air pollution ranks as the second leading risk factor for death in children under age 5.28 Global warming has led to rising sea levels,a particular hazard for Small Island Developing States.29 Access to safe drinking water is a

119、t ever-increasing risk,especially for the most vulnerable children.30 Heatwaves,wildfires,droughts,tropical storms and biodiversity loss pose additional threats.As a result,few children in the world live free of mounting climate and environmental risks.31The climate and environmental crises15Environ

120、mental degradation and systemic shifts are also creating new interactions between people and the environment.32 Signals of this change include the potential for harmful chemicals and materials to impact health,immune function and fertility;33 emerging zoonotic diseases and higher risk of pandemics;3

121、4 and eco-anxiety among children and young people that gives rise to isolation and loneliness.35 Failing to protect children from the climate and ecological crises is a violation of their rights,as affirmed by the United Nations Committee on the Rights of the Child in General Comment 26.36 The Commi

122、ttee recognizes climate and environmental hazards as“an urgent and systemic threat to childrens rights”,and affirms childrens right to a clean,healthy and sustainable environment.37 Impacts on childrenSafeguarding these rights today and into the future means both recognizing the hazards that childre

123、n face and understanding their impact.Taken together,climate and environmental hazards,biodiversity degradation,and widespread pollution have a profound impact on childrens lives.Health The planetary crisis threatens childrens health and well-being on multiple levels.First,it puts more children at r

124、isk of disease.For example,rising average temperatures have led to an increase in mosquito populations and greater risks of diseases like malaria,dengue,Zika and West Nile virus.38 Childrens access to clean water is also at risk.Rising floodwaters can damage infrastructure,leading to contaminated wa

125、ter supplies and increases in waterborne diseases,which represent a leading cause of death among children under the age of 5.Extreme weather also directly affects childrens access to a diverse,healthy diet.For children and pregnant women,lack of diet diversity and food scarcity can lead to a greater

126、 risk of disease.It is also linked to poor developmental outcomes in children.39 Food insecurity is predicted to increase as the climate crisis worsens.40 Air pollution is especially harmful for children,and its effects can last a lifetime.41 Scientific evidence shows that air pollution can contribu

127、te to adverse birth outcomes,infant mortality,damaged lungs,asthma and cancer,and it is linked to the risk of neurological disorders and childhood obesity.42Young voices“Imagine a future where climate change and harsh conditions will lead schools to turn into night mode,forcing everyone to only stud

128、y at night because of unbearable conditions during daytime.”Mamadou Doucoure,24,Youth Foresight Fellow,MaliMental health can also be disrupted by extreme weather events.Exposure to extreme weather events in childhood can be extremely traumatic.43 Whats worse,children often have a lack of agency in t

129、hese situations,heightening potential trauma:44 Parents,teachers or caregivers make decisions on their behalf,which enhances feelings of helplessness in the face of climate shocks.45 Notably,extreme heat,tornadoes,hurricanes,floods and As they grow,every realm of childrens lives from education to nu

130、trition,from safety and security to mental health is shaped by the climate and environment.16The State of the Worlds Children 2024earthquakes have been linked to a range of mental health issues,including post-traumatic stress disorder and/or depression.46 Children and young people around the world h

131、ave also displayed widespread climate anxiety due to worries about the catastrophic effects of climate change and a sense that not enough is being done to address problems.47EducationClimate and environmental hazards can have profound effects on childrens education.48 Climate shocks can close,damage

132、 or destroy schools,hindering childrens opportunities to learn and grow.Since 2022,more than 400 million students around the world have experienced school closures due to extreme weather.49 From extreme heat in India,Pakistan and South Sudan to wildfires in the United States of America,from cyclones

133、 in Malawi to flooding in the Philippines,the climate crisis is undermining childrens right to education.50 Climate-induced school closures are also widening learning gaps worldwide.51 Climate shocks also keep children from learning by affecting attendance.Far too often,climate hazards bring disease

134、 or demand changes in a childs daily life.In extreme cases,climate hazards force children to flee their homes and abandon their education.In addition to violating child rights,this inhibits learning and stifles economies.The World Bank recently called the educational impacts of climate change an“eco

135、nomic time-bomb.”52One of the keys to defusing this bomb is doubling down on education more specifically climate education.Children have the right to understand climate change an issue that affects them disproportionately.Education is the single strongest predictor of climate change awareness.53 An

136、additional year of education increases climate awareness by 9 per cent,according to analysis of 96 countries.54 And beyond raising awareness,education drives individuals to take action on climate change,including by adopting responsible consumerism.55Unfortunately,children and young people around th

137、e world feel that their knowledge of climate change is insufficient,and that they are not prepared to address its impacts.56 A UNICEFGallup poll found that on average,85 per cent of young people aged 1524 surveyed in 55 countries said they have heard of climate change,yet just 50 per cent of those c

138、hose the correct definition of the concept.57 Climate change knowledge among young people was found to be lowest in lower-middle-and low-income countries,many of which are the most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.Strategic investments are needed to safeguard childrens right to understand

139、 the climate crisis,and to equip them to engage in advocacy,mitigation and adaptation.More national school curriculum frameworks need to address to climate change.Children and young people around the world feel that their knowledge of climate change is insufficient.The climate and environmental cris

140、es17DisplacementClimate and environmental hazards are directly linked to the displacement of children from their homes.Displacement whether short-lived or protracted can exacerbate the dangers caused by climate and environmental hazards.58 When children are displaced from their homes,they are at hig

141、her risk of becoming separated from their parents or caregivers,amplifying various other risks,including exploitation,child trafficking and abuse.Furthermore,displacement disrupts education and exposes children to health risks from malnutrition,disease and inadequate immunization.For children in are

142、as of significant poverty,conflict and fragility,deprivations are multiplied.59Climate and environmental hazards will be a defining aspect of the future of childhood.Protecting children today and tomorrow demands immediate,sustained,renewed and sincere efforts to lower emissions,reduce the pace of g

143、lobal warming,and transition to cleaner and renewable energy sources.It also requires climate and environmental adaptations to lessen the harms,disruptions and displacement that children and families are experiencing around the world.To implement these changes,governments and the global community mu

144、st take decisive action,putting childrens health and well-being at the centre of climate policy,investment and more.The planetary crisis also ripens conditions for conflict and can exacerbate its harms to children.A scarcity of water,arable land and energy resources can escalate tensions,especially

145、in areas already coping with political instability.Conflict,in turn,harms ecosystems and the livelihoods,security and health of children and families.60Climate and environmental hazards will be a defining aspect of the future of childhood.18The State of the Worlds Children 2024Frontier technologiesF

146、rontier technologies promise dramatic improvements for the lives of children.Connectivity and digital skills,when used correctly in learning environments,could equip millions for future jobs,boosting economies and breaking generational cycles of inequality.AI and neurotechnology could drive transfor

147、mations in education and health care.New vaccines promise protection from deadly diseases.And green tech offers ways to mitigate and adapt to the climate crisis.These are only a few examples of the opportunities frontier technologies can offer.But there are also risks such as invasion of privacy,exp

148、osure to harmful content and misuse of personal information.Both the opportunities and risks demonstrate why we must take a future-focused approach to realizing child rights.61Young voices“A future ambition is a connected and sustainable society where technology plays a central role in improving the

149、 quality of life and promoting social inclusion.Where universal and regional connectivity becomes a reality.”Abril Perazzini,19,Youth Foresight Fellow,ArgentinaFrontier technologies promise dramatic improvements for the lives of children.Frontier technologies19Digitalization Already changing the fut

150、ure of work,education,health care,energy and more,digitalization also has the potential to add trillions of dollars in value to the global economy.62 But technology alone will not make a better world:Its promise can only be fulfilled if societies,governments and companies embed child rights into the

151、 design and application of innovations.To be unconnected in a digital world is to be deprived of opportunities in the present and potential in the future.In Europe,an estimated 90 per cent of jobs require basic digital skills,in addition to basic literacy and numeracy.63 By 2030,more than 230 millio

152、n jobs in sub-Saharan Africa will require digital skills.64 Soft skills like critical thinking,reasoning and socio-emotional skills will also be key;these are skills that machines will not have.Children need to learn how to safely leverage such tools from an early age,both for their ongoing educatio

153、n and future work prospects.Children who can spend more time online and engage in a wider range of online activities develop better digital skills.65Yet most young people in low-and middle-income countries are not connected,have limited digital skills and do not own a mobile phone.Overall,more than

154、95 per cent of people in high-income countries are connected to the internet,compared with barely 26 per cent in low-income countries.66 Infrastructure limitations,high costs and permission barriers continue to impede progress.The divide is particularly stark for certain groups:In low-income countri

155、es,9 out of 10 girls and young women aged 1524 are offline.67 Even in high-income countries,adolescents aged 1516 in the poorest households are nine times more likely to be unconnected than their wealthier peers.68The internet cannot be accessed without electricity.Absent or unreliable electricity a

156、nd inadequate infrastructure therefore exacerbate the digital divide.In Africa,63 per cent of the population owns a mobile phone but only 37 per cent uses the internet.69 Weak infrastructure(lack of electricity or signal),costs(of data and devices),the need to share devices and not having an adults

157、permission to use the internet,especially for children,continue to represent persistent barriers to connectivity.70Low-connectivity countries today would benefit from accelerating progress towards universal connectivity.Failure to remove barriers for children in these countries,especially for those

158、living in the poorest households,means letting an already disadvantaged generation fall even further behind.The rapidly growing child population in Africas regions calls for immediate action.However,knowledge gaps such as how to best leverage digital technologies as part of formal education led by t

159、rained teachers still urgently need to be addressed.The potential for digital technologies to improve educational outcomes can therefore not be dissociated from the investments that are urgently needed in order to recruit and train more teachers and maximize learning time for children,as underlined

160、in the next chapter.Young voices“In 2050,artificial intelligence will redefine the world we live in today.Please use it responsibly,to create a fair,innovative and sustainable society,where technology serves the common good and does not create inequalities.”U-Reporter,16,female,RomaniaTo be unconnec

161、ted in a digital world is to be deprived of opportunities in the present and potential in the future.20The State of the Worlds Children 2024At the same time,digital technologies expose children to a wide range of risks and harms.The risks are only expected to increase as more children are online and

162、 technologies become more immersive and integrated into childrens lives.Digital technology increases childrens vulnerability to privacy risks,including misuse of personal information and exposure to harmful content.Without sufficient awareness and skills to navigate online spaces safely,and appropri

163、ate policies to protect users,people can be easy targets for exploitation and cyber threats.In addition,the rapid pace of technological advancements can outstrip the development of protective measures,leaving gaps in security.Protecting childrens privacy requires that governments enforce strong safe

164、guards that hold the technology industry accountable for creating safer digital environments.71 Efforts to address online harms to children face significant policy and regulatory challenges.The rapid increase in online sexual exploitation and abuse of children is proving to be a major stumbling bloc

165、k for national and global prevention,child protection and legislation.In addition,harms from AI-generated child sexual abuse material(CSAM)present a new and urgent problem,as law enforcement cannot easily distinguish real CSAM from AI-generated material.72 Low-connectivity countries have an opportun

166、ity to learn from three decades of lessons and mistakes in well-connected countries,which could allow them to get ahead of this rising tide of online harms.Still,these highly complex issues require significant financial investment and continuous research to understand how digitalization continues to

167、 change childhood in all settings.Looking ahead,the children of 2050 will face additional challenges and opportunities in the space of frontier technology.Some are well known;for example,we can already predict many challenges related to digital learning or online protection.Others are unpredictable

168、or more difficult to foresee,and therefore require an anticipatory approach to policymaking.Commitment to child rights is essential to these efforts.In the 2021 General Comment 25,the Committee on the Rights of the Child outlined child rights in relation to the digital environment,which can serve as

169、 a guide for essential policies and approaches to digitalization and children.NeurotechnologyBy directly interacting with the brain or nervous system,neurotechnology devices or software serve as an interface with the outside world.They combine neuroscience with technology to monitor brain activity,s

170、timulate areas of the brain or interpret brain signals.Examples of neurotechnologies include non-invasive headbands that measure brain activity for attention or wrist bands that monitor heart rate,stress levels and sleep patterns.Young voices“It is crucial for leaders to enact policies and regulatio

171、ns that ensure the ethical and responsible use of AI and technology.This includes promoting transparency,accountability and fairness in the development and deployment of AI systems.”U-Reporter,22,male,United Republic of TanzaniaAt the same time,digital technologies expose children to a wide range of

172、 risks and harms.Frontier technologies21Neurotechnologies have the potential to,for example,personalize education adapting teaching strategies to individual childrens learning patterns and needs and improve health care through better diagnosis and treatment for children with neurological,psychiatric

173、 and physical disorders.73Yet,neurotechnologies can be misused.It is not difficult to imagine dystopian scenarios where neurotechnologies are used to undermine childrens cognitive liberty;companies exploiting childrens purchasing habits to inform product development;governments surveilling childrens

174、 thoughts and punishing them or swaying their worldviews;or military groups recruiting children into armed or terrorist activities.In the hope of giving their children an advantage,parents and caregivers could also authorize the use of cognitive enhancement neurotechnologies without obtaining the ch

175、ilds consent or understanding the long-term consequences.Given large global wealth and power disparities,reaping the benefits and minimizing the risks requires urgent regulatory and governance reform.Artificial IntelligenceAI systems have the potential to support learning and teaching practices,and

176、to introduce outlets for children to express themselves,play and think creatively.However,if the data used to train AI systems do not reflect childrens varied characteristics,those systems will reinforce historic patterns of systemic bias and discrimination.Children with disabilities and those from

177、marginalized groups,including racial and ethnic minorities,are especially vulnerable to biased algorithms.74 Young voices“We must integrate our human journey with AI,as almost all jobs will change due to this technology.It is important to learn how to harness it.I envision myself in 2050 as a physic

178、ian,with my career enhanced by these new techniques.”U-Reporter,18,male,ColombiaFor example,large language models(LLMs)that are trained on major global languages,such as English,Chinese and Spanish,are not accessible to millions of children around the world who use different native languages,known i

179、n tech circles as low-resource languages.As a result,LLMs often make prejudicial decisions about speakers of minority dialects when prompted to make character,employability or criminality decisions.Furthermore,research shows that AI safety is lower for people who speak these languages.75 Facial reco

180、gnition technologies are also known to be less reliable when used on childrens faces and other groups based on gender and ethnicity,which can lead to discrimination and further marginalization of minority communities.76Left to market forces alone,AI is set to widen the digital divide by benefiting p

181、rimarily the Global North.The use of AI in existing business operations and to deliver better products and services to both businesses and consumers will have a cumulative global economic impact of$19.9 trillion through 2030.This equates to a 3.5 per cent rise in global gross domestic product(GDP).7

182、7 Nonetheless,Africas share of those gains is expected to be modest:Predictions show the continent may add only$400 million to its GDP due to underdeveloped digital infrastructure.78 With greater investment by governments,and more child-sensitive design by companies,frontier technologies can be game

183、 changers,especially if they are focused on the hardest-to-reach children.These principles must be built in from the start and based on rigorous evidence that includes the perspectives of children themselves.With greater investment by governments,and more child-sensitive design by companies,frontier

184、 technologies can be game changers.22The State of the Worlds Children 2024Young voices“We must ensure that AI development is guided by ethical principles.It is crucial to mitigate risks,protect privacy and prevent biases that could deepen existing societal divides.”U-Reporter,23,male,RwandaGreen tec

185、hnologiesNearly every child on Earth is exposed to at least one type of climate or environmental hazard,from extreme weather events to toxic chemicals,air pollution and disease.79 New and expanded green energy technologies can help avert the worst effects of the planetary crisis,while also speeding

186、social and economic progress.By reducing climate-related risks,helping improve air and water quality,and bringing clean energy to underserved areas,they can greatly enhance childrens lives.The rapid growth of renewable energy technologies is a meaningful step toward sustainability.80 Next-generation

187、 solar photovoltaics(PVs)and wind technologies including more efficient turbines and offshore wind farms are quickly expanding their share of global electricity supply.Novel solar innovations are particularly promising for development and humanitarian settings,post-conflict and post-disaster recover

188、y.81 Costs of these technologies in some regions are now lower than fossil fuels,and solar energy is poised to become a leading source of electricity generation globally in the coming decades.New ways of providing renewable energy,including local energy networks and standalone systems,are also gaini

189、ng ground.These decentralized energy systems,which are either off grid or microgrids,reduce emissions and enhance access and reliability where large-scale infrastructure is lacking.82 They offer a viable option to address persistent energy challenges in underserved areas,including Sub-Saharan Africa

190、 and South Asia.83Energy storage technology is also vital in the transition to clean,dependable energy.Innovations like thermal energy storage can transform intermittent clean energy from wind and solar into a reliable source of on-demand energy.84 Its reach is growing fast:Amid record low prices,th

191、e global energy storage market nearly tripled in 2023.85 Providing this reliable power to off-grid and underserved communities can transform childrens lives.86A variety of other green technologies such as smart grids,sustainable transportation,green building solutions,87 advanced water management sy

192、stems,climate modelling tools,early warning systems(for climate hazards and environmental threats),88 sustainable agriculture practices and eco-friendly materials also have the potential to significantly enhance childrens lives by 2050.Governments,multilateral institutions and international financia

193、l institutions need to prioritize investment in green energy technologies that are clean,affordable and reliable.They must also ensure that countries that bear the least responsibility for the climate crisis and that are the least equipped to manage its effects are equipped for a sustainable energy

194、transition.To participate in and benefit from the transition,all countries need access to innovations,infrastructure,technology transfers and green skills development.Frontier technologies23Vaccine breakthroughsVaccines are one of the most transformative innovations in medical history.Since 1974,vac

195、cination has averted 154 million deaths,including 146 million among children under 5,of whom 101 million were infants.89 Breakthrough technologies in the sector now promise to save many more childrens lives.While the rollout of COVID-19 vaccines was marred starkly by inequities,the pandemic still re

196、invigorated the vaccine sector.90 The development and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines in record time renewed global attention on their lifesaving role.Some of the vaccines that immunized hundreds of millions of people used messenger RNA(mRNA)technology,a scientific advancement that gave scientists

197、 a template to quickly code a new generation of mRNA vaccines which can also be harnessed to fight some of the worlds most infectious,deadly diseases.In addition,the crisis spurred advancements in deployment,increased manufacturing capacity and prompted investments from both governments and companie

198、s.The COVID-19 pandemic sparked a 30 per cent increase in vaccine candidates over the past five years.91The post-COVID vaccine landscape looks promising for children on multiple levels:mRNA technology is currently being adapted for use in vaccines for various diseases,including influenza,cancer,Zika

199、 and respiratory conditions.92 The worlds first effective malaria vaccines are now available to and recommended for young children,changing the game when it comes to preventing one of the most challenging and deadly diseases.93 A new mRNA malaria vaccine has also showed promise in preclinical trials

200、.94 COVID-19 triggered an expansion of immunization investment,partnerships and governance structures,offering new opportunities for improving the immunization landscape.95It is important to note that child immunization rates have stalled after sliding backwards for the first time in decades.96 Conf

201、lict,displacement,COVID-19-related disruptions and vaccine misinformation have led to certain setbacks,particularly in low-and middle-income countries.97 Closing the immunization gap demands a coordinated global response.Similarly,stakeholders can build on momentum in vaccine development by adopting

202、 a collaborative approach.By de-risking and increasing investments in manufacturing and R&D,coordinating insights to boost vaccination rates and commercial demand,and fostering a regulatory environment that encourages equitable access to vaccines,the global community can unlock vaccines that save mi

203、llions more childrens lives.9824The State of the Worlds Children 2024Chapter 2Children in the world of 2050Children in the world of 2050 25The three megatrends explored in the previous chapter will continue to have acute impacts on childrens lives in the years to come,but many other forces will also

204、 play a part.To develop a sense of how these megatrends along with other significant forces and trends might influence the future of childhood,UNICEF and the Wittgenstein Centre explored scenarios of what the future might look like depending on rates of progress and on the actions of decision-makers

205、.For example,what will the future look like if decision-makers choose a more fragmented path,leading to greater inequality and environmental degradation?What if they opt for a more inclusive and sustainable path?This chapter looks at these scenarios for the future.It looks at the impacts of decision

206、-makers choices in seven areas:child survival and life expectancy;socioeconomic development;education;gender equality;conflict;urbanization;and environment.The data projections are shown under three alternative scenarios,which depend on potential global trajectories:a future shaped by business-as-us

207、ual trendlines;a future shaped by accelerated development;and a future shaped by delayed development.The scenarios trace decadal averages from the 2000s to the 2050s.The business-as-usual scenario assumes that historic patterns of change will continue from the 2000s to the 2050s;1 accelerated develo

208、pment assumes a faster rate of progress towards a more equitable world,thanks to robust social investments and a focus on sustainability;and delayed development assumes a slower rate of progress.The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways modelThe Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSPs)are a set of scenarios used

209、 to explore potential future global socioeconomic trends,particularly in the context of climate change.Each scenario includes assumptions about economic development,population growth,technological advancements and greenhouse gas emissions.These factors are central to how the SSPs project different g

210、lobal futures and their interactions with climate change.Unlike prediction methods,scenarios explore a range of possible futures by considering various plausible developments,rather than attempting to forecast a specific outcome.Heres how each of these components is integrated into the SSP framework

211、:1.Economic development:Each SSP scenario assumes different trajectories of global and regional economic growth,usually measured in terms of GDP per capita.These assumptions affect the capacity to invest in mitigation and adaptation strategies,and they shape future consumption patterns and emissions

212、.2.Population growth:Assumptions about population growth are critical to the SSPs,because they influence resource demand,energy consumption and carbon emissions.Different pathways assume different rates of population change based on fertility rates,life expectancy and migration patterns.3.Technologi

213、cal advances:Each SSP makes specific assumptions about the pace and direction of technological innovation,particularly in sectors like energy,agriculture and industry.These assumptions are crucial for understanding future emissions trajectories and the feasibility of decarbonization.4.Environment:Th

214、e SSPs build on narratives regarding environmental policy and use of natural resources,including the use of fossil fuels,land use,deforestation and agricultural practices.What will the future look like if decision-makers choose a more fragmented path,leading to greater inequality and environmental d

215、egradation?26The State of the Worlds Children 2024Remaining on the business-as-usual pathway,it is projected that child populations in low-income and lower-middle income countries will surge by the 2050s while they decline elsewhere;about eight times more children could be exposed to extreme heatwav

216、es compared with the 2000s;and the world could fail to achieve universal completion of secondary school for all children.In addition,more children in many parts of Africa could be exposed to prolonged subnational conflict than they were in the 2000s.In a scenario of accelerated development,more than

217、 four times more children are expected to be exposed to extreme heatwaves in the 2050s compared with the 2000s.However,life expectancy for newborns is projected to rise from 68 to 84 years.Economic growth in low-income countries,if combined with social protection policies,could mean fewer children l

218、iving in poverty;the world could see all children having the opportunity to complete primary and upper secondary school;more children could live in societies with gender equality;and the number of children exposed to prolonged subnational conflict could drop by 59 per cent.In a fragmented world of d

219、elayed development,more children are projected to be living in low-income countries in the 2050s,with millions still not learning in or out of school;nearly 14 times more children are expected to be exposed to extreme heatwaves;and in some regions,children could still face extreme gender inequality,

220、with 1.1 billion living in gender unequal societies.And up to 1.4 billion children globally face the potential risk of exposure to prolonged subnational conflict.These three scenarios show the future is not yet defined.How governments and the global community choose to invest their resources will de

221、termine which path children find themselves on in the 2050s.Young voices“We need to create spaces for children and young people to imagine the world they want.Every child deserves a say in shaping the future.”Fisayo Oyewale,27,Senior Youth Foresight Fellow,NigeriaThe three scenarios show the future

222、is not yet defined.Children in the world of 2050 27Child survival and life expectancyIn the 2050s:The rate of survival for newborns babies up to 28 days old is projected to increase from more than 94 per cent of children born in the 2000s to more than 96 per cent in the 2050s across all three scenar

223、ios for the future.The probability that a child will survive to age 5 is also projected to increase from 98.5 per cent in the 2000s to 99.5 per cent in the 2050s in the business-as-usual scenario.In the 2050s,in the business-as-usual scenario:Women are still expected to live longer than men by five

224、years.Womens life expectancy at birth is expected to rise from 70(in the 2000s)to a projected 81 years of age.Mens life expectancy at birth is expected to climb from 66(in the 2000s)to 76 years of age.Figure 2.1 Three scenarios for change in survival ratios,from the 2000s to the 2050sMaleSex1014Age5

225、904NewbornFemaleSurvival ratio2000s 2010s 2020s 2030s 2040s2010s 2020s 2030s 2040s2010s 2020s 2030s 2040s2050s2000s2050s2000s2050s0.940.950.960.970.980.991.00Accelerated developmentBusiness-as-usualDelayed developmentSource:UNICEF and the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital.2

226、8The State of the Worlds Children 2024Impact on childrenA continuation of the historic drops in newborn and child mortality is reason to be optimistic about the future.However,when it comes to child survival,even one death is too many.Ending preventable child deaths will require investment in high-q

227、uality and accessible health care.Achieving this goal means training skilled birth attendants and health care services for women and children,especially in the early years of life.Ensuring child survival and development requires investment in prenatal care,health,nutrition,early childhood care and e

228、ducation.It means supporting families so they can provide their children with the best start in life.As life expectancy increases,as described in Chapter 1,children are projected to live in ageing societies,where older generations could potentially play a greater role in family and community life.Ho

229、wever,managing longer lifespans could also shift societal resources towards care for the elderly,potentially affecting investments in education and child well-being overall.Young voices“By 2050,we need empathy,communication and policies that promote new activities and sustainable jobs.Leaders,build

230、an inclusive and prosperous future.”U-Reporter,16,female,EcuadorFigure 2.2 Three scenarios for projected growth in life expectancy at birth for men and women,from the 2000s to the 2050s,by regionMaleSexScenarioFemaleYears added to expected lifespan0510152025East Asiaand thePacific9.99.9Eastern andSo

231、uthernAfrica15.516.3Latin Americaand Caribbean11.210.6MiddleEast andNorth Africa10.711.0South Asia10.912.4West andCentralAfrica14.015.1NorthAmerica10.09.6Other10.49.99.916.311.211.012.415.210.010.49.915.5Europeand CentralAsia11.810.211.810.210.610.710.914.09.69.9WesternEurope11.111.110.010.0Accelera

232、ted developmentBusiness-as-usualDelayed developmentNote:See technical annex for list of countries in each region.Source:UNICEF and the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital.A continuation of the historic drops in newborn and child mortality is reason to be optimistic about the

233、future.Children in the world of 2050 29Socioeconomic conditionsIn the 2050s:While children will make up a shrinking proportion of the population across all income groups,the number of children living in the 28 countries currently classified as low-income countries is projected to more than double fr

234、om the 2000s(a 126 per cent increase).23 per cent of the worlds children are projected to live in todays low-income countries more than double the share living in these countries in the 2000s(11 per cent).The number of children in todays upper-middle income countries is projected to decrease.Figure

235、2.3 Number of children and share of children in the population,from the 2000s to the 2050s,by current World Bank income group2000s2010s2020s2030s2040s2050s80002004006002000s2010s2020s2030s2040s2050s6002040292522181616650605565452407387Number of children(millions)Share of children in total population

236、(%)2000s2010s2020s2030s2040s2050s80002004006002000s2010s2020s2030s2040s2050s60020405250484440372413103834555065442000s2010s2020s2030s2040s2050s3000501001502002502000s2010s2020s2030s2040s2050s6002040222019171717244241233216215216Upper-middle incomeLow incomeHigh incomeLower-middle income2000s2010s202

237、0s2030s2040s2050s1,50003006009001,2002000s2010s2020s2030s2040s2050s60020401,0991,1751,2111,2031,2041,187413734302826Note:These calculations are based on World Bank country income classifications in 2024;shading shows the range from low to high variants.Source:UNICEF and the Wittgenstein Centre for D

238、emography and Global Human Capital.30The State of the Worlds Children 2024In the 2050s:GDP per capita is projected to double in East Asia and the Pacific,growing from$17,000 in the 2020s to$38,900 in the 2050s;in South Asia,it is projected to grow from$7,000 in the 2020s to$18,000 in the 2050s.In th

239、e 2050s:The speed of and opportunity for economic growth are projected to change,depending on the future scenario.In the Democratic Republic of the Congo,for example,the countrys estimated GDP per capita in the 2050s is$6,180 a year in the business-as-usual scenario.However,in the future of accelera

240、ted development,the projected GDP per capita could be more than double that,at$12,500.By contrast,in the future of delayed development,the GDP per capita is projected to reach only roughly half the business-as-usual figure at$3,200 a year.Accelerated developmentBusiness-as-usualDelayed development20

241、50s2000s100020406080OtherAverage GDP per capita($,thousands)2000s2050sWestern Europe2000s2050s100020406080Middle East and North AfricaAverage GDP per capita($,thousands)2000s2050sSouth Asia2000s2050sWest and Central Africa2000s2050sNorth America2000s2050s100020406080East Asia and the Pacific2000s205

242、0sEastern and Southern Africa2000s2050sEurope and Central Asia2000s2050sLatin America and CaribbeanAverage GDP per capita($,thousands)Figure 2.4 Three scenarios for average GDP per capita in the 2000s and 2050s,by region12.636.1403.23.45.7132.852.113.723.184.730.25.86363.719.827.74418.549.416.727.37

243、478.834.653.533.184.592.411.16.240.39.918.11170.271.627.438.9Note:See technical annex for list of countries in each region;the figures are expressed in constant 2017 international dollars at purchasing power parity;figures for countries in each region are weighted by child population.Source:UNICEF a

244、nd the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital.Children in the world of 2050 31Figure 2.5 Three scenarios for GDP per capita for countries with the lowest projected per capita incomes in the 2050sGDP per capita($,thousands)SomaliaDemocratic PeoplesRepublic of KoreaSouth SudanNige

245、r(the)EritreaCentral African RepublicBurundiMadagascarAfghanistanMalawiDemocratic Republicof the CongoChadMaliLiberiaMozambique03612914713102581411150.91.93.23.94.84.95.15.35.45.96.26.26.377.1Accelerated developmentBusiness-as-usualDelayed developmentFigure 2.6 Three scenarios for average growth of

246、real GDP per capita from the 2000s to the 2050s,by regionWestern EuropeOtherMiddle East andNorth AfricaLatin America and CaribbeanEastern andSouthern AfricaEurope and Central AsiaWest and Central Africa01007004002008005003009006001,000Average growth in GDP per capita(%)Accelerated developmentBusines

247、s-as-usualDelayed developmentNorth AmericaEast Asia and the PacificSouth Asia766298117141193210301467581Note:See technical annex for list of countries in each region;the figures are expressed in constant 2017 international dollars at purchasing power parity;the countries are weighted by child popula

248、tions.Source:UNICEF and the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital.Note:Calculations are only presented for countries with more than 1 million children;the figures are expressed in constant 2017 international dollars at purchasing power parity.Source:UNICEF and the Wittgenstein

249、Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital.32The State of the Worlds Children 2024Impact on childrenPoverty is not just measured in money;it is multidimensional.2 The United Nations General Assembly has recognized that children living in poverty are deprived of many rights,including nutrition,wa

250、ter,sanitation,health care,shelter,education and protection.3 Economic growth has been shown to alleviate multidimensional poverty4 but it must be accompanied by strategic policies to ensure no child is left behind.These estimates describe the overall socioeconomic conditions in which children are p

251、rojected to live.They are not estimates of child poverty in the 2050s.5 From this perspective,the data highlight that only incremental change is expected in many of the worlds poorest areas:They show that relatively more children are projected to be born in low-resource environments.Poverty is also

252、experienced in countries with high average incomes.For example,in 2021,more than 69 million children lived in relative monetary poverty in 40 of the worlds richest countries.6 Many of the countries at the low end of GDP per capita are at a critical crossroads.If they transition into higher income br

253、ackets,they could be poised to reap the benefits of the demographic dividend.But they could also miss this opportunity.History has provided examples of countries that have seized the opportunity to capitalize on demographic transition.In the latter part of the twentieth century,various countries,inc

254、luding the Republic of Korea and Singapore,saw rapid economic growth thanks to dramatic change in their demographic structures.These changes were followed by socioeconomic transformation and a boom in prosperity.7These types of demographic trends can have a knock-on effect on child poverty:A country

255、 with better economic prospects and governance has more capacity to meaningfully address child poverty by investing in the services on which children depend,including education,health,nutrition and social protection.Of course,the future of children does not only depend on economic growth,but also re

256、sts on the collective commitment of decision-makers to invest in children in peaceful environments with essential services that help children grow and thrive.In the next quarter of a century,it will be essential for governments,especially in low-and lower-middle-income countries,to understand demogr

257、aphic shifts and respond with policies and plans that put them in a good position to fulfil their obligations when it comes to protecting the rights of children and maintaining a standard of living that allows them to make the most of their future.Young voices“Theres a real movement for change.We ar

258、e seeing examples where young people arent just consulted after a decision has been made but are guiding that decision-making process.”Kate Seary,27,Youth Foresight Fellow,WalesEconomic growth has been shown to alleviate multidimensional poverty but it must be accompanied by strategic policies to en

259、sure no child is left behind.Children in the world of 2050 33EducationIn the 2050s:In the business-as-usual future,the percentage of children with less than primary education is projected to drop to 4.3,compared with 20 per cent in the 2000s.These figures represent progress,but still fall short of t

260、he goal of universal completion of secondary school as set out in the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals(SDGs).In the future of accelerated development,all children could complete primary and upper secondary school in the 2050s.In the delayed development future,only 81 per cent of children

261、 are projected to complete primary education and only 46 per cent of children are projected to complete upper secondary school.In the 2050s:Every region is projected to see an increase in the percentage of children who complete primary education.Eastern and Southern Africa,West and Central Africa,an

262、d South Asia are projected to see substantial increases in the number of children who finish primary school.Young voices“I had to leave my small island for education.I want to figure out how we can provide quality education for all,so that child who is born in 2050 doesnt have to leave their islands

263、 to study.”Fathmath Zahanath Zuhury,23,Youth Foresight Fellow,Republic of MaldivesFigure 2.7 Three scenarios for global population aged 2024 with at least upper secondary education in the 2000s and the 2050s2000s2050s Business-as-usual developmentAccelerated developmentBusiness-as-usual developmentD

264、elayed developmentNumber215 million432 million448 million342 millionPercentage40%100%77%46%Source:UNICEF and the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital.34The State of the Worlds Children 2024In the 2050s:Globally,the gap between girls and boys in educational attainment is projec

265、ted to narrow slightly under the business-as-usual scenario.However,in the accelerated development scenario,the gap could be completely closed in every region.In the business-as-usual scenario,more girls complete upper secondary education than boys in East Asia and the Pacific,the Middle East and No

266、rth Africa,Europe and Central Asia,and South Asia a flip of the historic pattern.This flip is particularly dramatic in South Asia,where a gap of 12 percentage points in favour of boys in the 2000s turns into a gap of about 2 percentage points in favour of girls.In West and Central Africa,the gap of

267、about 11 percentage points in favour of boys is projected to remain mostly constant until the 2050s,except under accelerated development,where the gap could disappear.Accelerated developmentBusiness-as-usualDelayed development2050s2000s50010203040Other2024 year olds with less thanprimary education(m

268、illions)2000s2050s50010203040Middle East and North Africa2024 year olds with less thanprimary education(millions)2000s2050s500102030402000s2050sWestern Europe2000s2050sSouth Asia2000s2050sEastern and Southern Africa2000s2050sWest and Central Africa2000s2050sEurope and Central Asia2000s2050sNorth Ame

269、rica2000s2050sLatin America and Caribbean2024 year olds with less thanprimary education(millions)8Figure 2.8 Three scenarios for population aged 2024 with less than primary education from the 2000s to the 2050s,by regionEast Asia and the Pacific11104915014700000001044038381250 00090060Note:See techn

270、ical annex for list of countries in each region.Source:UNICEF and the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital.Children in the world of 2050 35Accelerated developmentBusiness-as-usualDelayed developmentFigure 2.9 Three scenarios for population aged 2024 with less than upper second

271、ary education from the 2000s to the 2050s,by region2000s2050s100020406080Other2000s2050sWestern Europe2024 year olds withless than upper secondaryeducation(millions)2000s2050s100020406080West and Central Africa20002050sNorth America2024 year olds withless than upper secondaryeducation(millions)2000s

272、2050s100020406080Middle East and North Africa2000s2050sSouth Asia2024 year olds withless than upper secondaryeducation(millions)2000s2050s100020406080Europe and Central Asia2000s2050sLatin America and Caribbean2024 year olds withless than upper secondaryeducation(millions)2000s2050s1000200400600800E

273、ast Asia and the Pacific2000s2050sEastern and Southern Africa2024 year olds withless than upper secondaryeducation(millions)9472225110397302757742780163106278710350 011 00334100000066Note:See technical annex for list of countries in each regionSource:UNICEF and the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography

274、 and Global Human Capital.36The State of the Worlds Children 20240Accelerated developmentBusiness-as-usualDelayed developmentFigure 2.10 Three scenarios for the difference in the percentage of men and women aged 20-24 who completed at least secondary education in the 2000s and the 2050s,by region200

275、0s2050s5-15-10-50Other2000s2050sWestern EuropeGender gap(percentage points)2000s2050s5-15-10-50West and Central Africa2000s2050sNorth AmericaGender gap(percentage points)2000s2050s5-15-10-50Middle East and North Africa2000s2050sSouth AsiaGender gap(percentage points)2000s2050s5-15-10-50Europe and Ce

276、ntral Asia2000s2050sLatin America and CaribbeanGender gap(percentage points)2000s2050s5-15-10-50East Asia and the Pacific2000s2050sEastern and Southern AfricaGender gap(percentage points)-2.2-2.6-2-11.80.93.43.7-12.54.7-2.5003.40.21.81.55.2341.5-10.71.50.700.1-20-11.30.41.7-0.1-0.10-5.3-1.91.14.8-1.

277、20Note:See technical annex for list of countries in each region;Negative numbers favour men,positive numbers favour women,zero implies gender equality.Source:UNICEF and the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital.Children in the world of 2050 37Impact on childrenOne of the great

278、achievements of the last century has been the increase in the number of children with access to education.This progress is expected to continue into the 2050s.Education is key to the future of children,families,communities,states and the world.Education leads to better health,alleviates poverty,driv

279、es economic growth,reduces inequality,and empowers children and young people8 and it is therefore pivotal to whether a country can make the most of a demographic transition.9But getting more children into classrooms will not do much if they do not learn.And realizing the social benefits of education

280、 cannot occur if children do not acquire the knowledge and skills necessary to participate in the workforce and contribute to family,community and states economies.Around the world,about 600 million children have not attained minimum proficiency levels in reading and mathematics,even though two thir

281、ds of them are in school.10 Multiple actions are essential to address the worldwide learning crisis and to ensure children have access to high-quality learning experiences.Among them is the need to focus on equity in and out of learning environments,create friendly environments and provide lessons i

282、n languages that children understand.In other words,learning is as important as access to education.The reverse is also true.Stalled expansion in access to education especially for girls has been linked to slower-than-expected demographic transitions,as revealed by a study of 18 countries in Africa.

283、11Indeed,despite progress towards gender parity in primary school enrolment,a stark divergence emerges in adolescence:Nearly 1 in 4 girls aged 1519 globally are not in school,employment or training compared with 1 in 10 boys.12 These disparities cost countries trillions of dollars in lost lifetime p

284、roductivity and earnings.13 Conversely,less than$2 per day invested in girls secondary education can yield a return of up to 10 per cent in a countrys economic growth.14For countries that expect to benefit from a demographic dividend,educational infrastructure,staffing and quality must keep pace wit

285、h population growth just to maintain the status quo,let alone push learning to new heights.Teachers are a vital part of the solution to the learning crisis.Today,there is a gap of an estimated 44 million teachers globally.Recruiting and training teachers is crucial if we want to be on track to meet

286、SDG 4.15We examined how demographic shifts in the next quarter of a century would impact demand for teachers.In regions such as Eastern and Southern Africa and West and Central Africa,where child populations are growing,the demand for teachers is projected to be even more urgent than it is today.In

287、the 2000s,countries in both regions had average ratios of 44 students per teacher in primary school.In secondary schools in Eastern and Southern Africa,the studentteacher ratio was 25 to 1,while in West and Central Africa it was 27 to 1.Just to maintain these levels in the 2050s,Eastern and Southern

288、 Africa would need to add 1.5 million teachers,and West and Central Africa would require a total of 2 million more teachers for both primary and secondary education.Today,there is a gap of an estimated 44 million teachers globally.38The State of the Worlds Children 2024To raise studentteacher ratios

289、 to the levels seen in the 2000s in high-income countries(15 students per teacher in primary school and 12 to 1 in secondary school),Eastern and Southern Africa and West and Central Africa would need to add more than 7 million teachers each if enrolment rates stay the same.If the rates rise to meet

290、enrolment rates in high-income countries,Eastern and Southern Africa and West and Central Africa would need to add a total of 31 million more teachers.Young voices“If we can focus on vocational education,we can help young people gain the practical skills they need to thrive in the future economy.”Ma

291、y Phyu Phyu Aung,24,Youth Foresight Fellow,MyanmarGender equalityAccording to projections for this report,based on the United Nations Development Programmes Gender Inequality Index(GII)and the SSPs,gender inequality is projected to be a less prominent part of childrens world in the future than it is

292、 today.However,many will still be living in societies with gender inequality in the 2050s,including in Eastern and Southern Africa and West and Central Africa two of the three regions where most of the worlds children will live.The GII is a composite measurement of reproductive health,empowerment an

293、d the labour market.16 However,various other factors influence gender inequality,including violence and discrimination,lack of legal protections,and harmful societal norms,like child marriage,that can restrict opportunities and perpetuate inequalities.The SDGs recognize gender equality as essential

294、to unlocking a more prosperous and sustainable future.17 Whats more,as well as shaping economic progress,gender equality and womens empowerment have an impact on demographic trends.18 In countries where child populations continue to climb,demographic transitions and the opportunities of a demographi

295、c dividend are directly tied to the education and empowerment of girls and women.19Education,especially for girls,provides a point of entry for addressing many of the inequalities that hold back social and economic progress.20ConflictIn the 2050s:Globally,fewer children are projected to live in area

296、s at high risk of prolonged subnational conflict meaning conflict that lasts more than five years.21In the business-as-usual scenario,the number of children at risk is projected to drop from more than 833 million in the 2000s to 622 million in the 2050s.However,the picture looks different by region.

297、In Eastern and Southern Africa,the number of children projected to live in countries with a high risk of prolonged subnational conflict increases from 71 million in the 2000s to 97.8 million in the 2050s.The risk also increases in West and Central Africa,from 5.1 million to 69 million.In the future

298、of accelerated development,the risk of conflict stays at low levels or declines in all regions.Globally,the drop in the child population exposed to prolonged subnational conflict is 60 per cent,with 342 million children at high risk of living in countries prone to prolonged subnational conflict in t

299、he 2050s.Globally,fewer children are projected to live in areas at high risk of prolonged subnational conflict.Children in the world of 2050 39In the delayed development future,the global risk increases and 1.4 billion children worldwide are projected to be at risk of exposure to prolonged subnation

300、al conflict a 64 per cent increase from the 2000s.In the delayed development scenario,South Asia experiences the biggest increase in the number of children living in countries with the preconditions for prolonged subnational conflict,with a jump from 468 million in the 2000s to 722 million in the 20

301、50s.Significant increases also are projected to occur in Eastern and Southern Africa,where the number of children at risk of experiencing prolonged subnational conflict jumps from 71 million to 190 million children in a region of 465 million children.In West and Central Africa,150 million more child

302、ren face risk of exposure.Young voices“Protect the environment,human lives and maintain peace without war.”U-Reporter,17,female,UkraineFigure 2.11 Three scenarios for number of children living in countries at risk of prolonged subnational conflict in the 2000s and the 2050s,by regionAccelerated deve

303、lopmentBusiness-as-usualDelayed development2050s2000s200050100150West and Central AfricaNumber of children(millions)2000s2050s300510152025Latin America and CaribbeanNumber of children(millions)2000s2050s2000501001501,50003006009001,200100020406080200050100150800020040060025051015202000s2050sWorld200

304、0s2050sMiddle East and North Africa2000s2050sEastern and Southern Africa2000s2050sSouth Asia2000s2050sEurope and Central AsiaNumber of children(millions)East Asia and the Pacific1521558336671234682572200861,37015526342160106962244396980050019042291Note:See technical annex for list of countries in ea

305、ch region.Source:UNICEF and the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital.40The State of the Worlds Children 2024Impact on childrenArmed conflict presents one of the worlds greatest risks to the rights,lives and well-being of children around the world.Recent headlines from the Cent

306、ral African Republic,Gaza,Haiti,the Sudan,Ukraine and Yemen underscore that conflict subnational and across national boundaries is a constant in many childrens lives.The idea that conflict could become less of a threat may seem nave in these circumstances.However,the scenarios outlined in this repor

307、t are not predictions,but rather an exploration of possibilities.In addition,the potential paths presented relate only to subnational conflict,not war between countries.Our calculations use long-term projections for prolonged subnational conflict,combined with recent population projections.22 Regard

308、less of the type of conflict,children are among the most vulnerable members of the population.The effect of conflict on children is not just about bullets and bombs.The risk of mortality among women and children from non-violent causes increases substantially in response to nearby conflict.23 Additi

309、onally,children lose access to essential services such as water and sanitation,and education often comes to a halt.Routine health care,such as immunization,is abandoned.These deprivations expose children to potentially deadly disease and compound the risks inflicted by conflict.Conflict also uproots

310、 children from their homes,disrupting their routines and exposing them to the dangers of life on the move,including violence,sexual abuse and exploitation,trafficking,and separation from their families.24In many places in the world,conflict overlaps with other crises,heightening the risks to childre

311、n.25Unfortunately,the global response to address these risks and to invest in prevention has been inadequate so far.Funding is well below levels required to meet the needs and protect the rights of children impacted by conflict,and to prevent conflict from emerging in the first place.26UrbanizationI

312、n the 2050s,under the business-as-usual scenario:The number of children who live in urban areas is projected to rise by 33 per cent from 971 million in the 2000s to 1.3 billion in the 2050s.Nearly 60 per cent of the worlds children are projected to live in urban settings.Latin America and Caribbean

313、is projected to continue to have the highest share of children who live in urban settings,at 84 per cent.Eastern and Southern Africa is projected to remain the least urbanized,with less than 45 per cent of children living in cities.In West and Central Africa,the number of children living in urban ar

314、eas is projected to more than triple,from 63 million in the 2000s to 209 million in the 2050s.While this is a dramatic increase in numbers,the share of children in urban areas globally is projected to increase only 15.4 percentage points from the 2000s to 59.7 per cent in the 2050s.The effect of con

315、flict on children is not just about bullets and bombs.The number of children who live in urban areas is projected to rise by 33 per cent.Children in the world of 2050 41Impact on childrenIn theory,the wealth that resides in cities should provide access to better health care,education,goods,services

316、and jobs.However,the benefits of urban life do not extend to all city dwellers.27 While,on the whole,children in urban settings have greater access to services such as health care and education than their rural peers,the aggregate masks great inequalities that have ramifications for childrens well-b

317、eing.28 For example,urban children in the poorest quintile are twice as likely to die before their fifth birthday than children in the richest quintile.29 They are also less likely to have access to health care and social services.More than 28 per cent of all children who never have received vaccina

318、tions lived in urban areas.30Young voices“We should nurture human connection,advocate for equality and inclusivity,improve sustainability to protect and preserve our natural resources.”U-Reporter,19,female,PhilippinesChildren in urban areas(millions)2000s2010s2020s2030s2040s2050s02003004001006007008

319、005009001,0001,2001,1001,300Figure 2.12 Growth in number of children in urban settings in the business-as-usual scenario,from the 2000s to the 2050s,by regionWestern EuropeWest andCentral AfricaEastern andSouthern AfricaSouth AsiaMiddle East andNorth AfricaLatin Americaand CaribbeanEast Asia andthe

320、PacificEurope andCentral AsiaOtherNorth America0.97billion1.09billion1.2billion1.24billion1.26billion1.29billionNote:See technical annex for list of countries in each region.Source:UNICEF and the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital.42The State of the Worlds Children 2024An es

321、timated 350 million to 500 million children lived in slum households in 2022 mostly in Asia and Africa.31 Without targeted interventions,it is likely that many more children will reside in high-density urban communities by 2050,where access to water,health care and education is suboptimal.For childr

322、en in these places,exposure to communicable diseases and environmental hazards,such as flooding and extreme heat,take an outsized toll on their health.32 Many children in cities are also routinely exposed to violence,which compromises their health and overall well-being.33Making urban areas healthie

323、r and more secure will be key to achieving the development targets set out in the SDGs,especially the goal of making“cities and human settlements inclusive,safe,resilient and sustainable”.34 Addressing the challenges that children face in cities means putting children at the centre of urban planning

324、,laws and standards for infrastructure and green space.35 Critical to this effort is establishing planning and policies that account for climate and environmental hazards through disaster-preparedness plans,as well as resilient infrastructure and systems.The Child-Friendly Cities Initiative,launched

325、 by UNICEF and UN-Habitat in 1996,aims to turn cities into places where children are protected;have access to essential services;can participate in family,cultural and community life;and have places to play,learn and grow.36 This approach to creating sustainable,resilient and responsive cities for c

326、hildren can be activated in more parts of the world to put child rights at the centre of urban planning.Western EuropeWest and CentralAfricaEastern andSouthern AfricaSouth AsiaMiddle East andNorth AfricaLatin Americaand CaribbeanEast Asia andthe PacificEurope andCentral AsiaOtherWorldNorth AmericaFi

327、gure 2.13 Growth in share of children living in urban settings in the business-as-usual scenario,from the 2000s to the 2050s,by region 2000s2010s2020s2030s2040s2050sChildren in urban areas(%)1009080706050403020100Addressing the challenges that children face in cities means putting children at the ce

328、ntre of urban planning,laws and standards for infrastructure and green space.Note:The Other category includes Australia,Israel,Japan,New Zealand,the Republic of Korea and Singapore;see technical annex for list of countries in each region.Source:UNICEF and the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and G

329、lobal Human Capital.Children in the world of 2050 43Climate and environmental hazardsIn the 2050s:Across all three future scenarios,greater numbers of children are projected to be exposed to extreme climate and environmental hazards(see Figure 2.14).In the business-as-usual scenario,compared with th

330、e 2000s,in the 2050s:About 8 times more children are projected to be exposed to extreme heatwaves.3.1 times more children exposed to extreme river floods.1.7 times more children exposed to extreme wildfires.1.3 times more children exposed to extreme droughts.1.2 times more children exposed to extrem

331、e tropical cyclones.Significant regional variation is expected across scenarios for climate and environmental hazards by the 2050s.The greatest increases in exposure to extreme heatwaves from the 2000s to the 2050s are expected in East Asia and the Pacific,the Middle East and North Africa,South Asia

332、,and West and Central Africa.The ultimate impact of extreme heatwaves on children in these regions will depend on many factors,including duration and intensity,as well as the capacity of societies to adapt.While all regions are projected to see more children exposed to extreme wildfires in the 2050s

333、,the greatest increases in exposure from the 2000s are expected in Eastern and Southern Africa as well as West and Central Africa.The greatest increases in exposure to extreme river floods are expected in the Middle East and North Africa,South Asia,Eastern and Southern Africa,West and Central Africa and East Asia and the Pacific.The Middle East and North Africa and West and Central Africa also are