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1、1 European Tourism:Trends&Prospects Quarterly Report Q3/2024 2 European Tourism:Trends&Prospects Quarterly Report(Q3/2024)A report produced for the European Travel Commission by Tourism Economics Brussels,October 2024 ETC Market Intelligence Report 3 European Tourism:Trends&Prospects(Q3/2024)All rig

2、hts reserved.The contents of this report may be quoted,provided the source is given accurately and clearly.Distribution or reproduction in full is permitted for own or internal use only.While we encourage distribution via publicly accessible websites,this should be done via a link to ETCs corporate

3、website,referring visitors to the Research/Trends Watch section.The designations employed and the presentation of material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinions whatsoever on the part of the Executive Unit of the European Travel Commission.Data sources:This report includes

4、data from the TourMIS database,STR,IATA,Eurocontrol,UN Tourism,Lighthouse and MMGY TCI Research.Economic analysis and forecasts are provided by Tourism Economics and are for interpretation by users according to their needs.Published by the European Travel Commission Rue du March aux Herbes,61,1000 B

5、russels,Belgium Website:www.etc-corporate.org Email: ISSN No:2034-9297 This report was compiled and edited by:Tourism Economics(an Oxford Economics Company)on behalf of the ETC Market Intelligence Group.Cover:Casino Building,Constanta,Romania Image ID:2002730879 Copyright:N.M.Bear 4 Foreword Europea

6、n tourism is expected to continue its growth trajectory for the remainder of 2024 as most destinations continue to surpass 2019 levels of foreign tourist arrivals.We are still not seeing full pre-pandemic recovery,as destinations in Northern,Central and Eastern Europe are still lagging due to Russia

7、s war in Ukraine.People continue to prioritise travel,despite the increasing cost of their trips.In response to the surge in travel costs and wider macroeconomic challenges,consumers will seek value for money.Furthermore,latest data from Tourism Economics suggests that tourists are expected to spend

8、 10.3%more across Europe in 2024 compared to 2023.A positive travel outlook is backed up by a recent report from the European Travel Commission,which states that travel intentions among Europeans are high,with 73%of survey respondents planning to travel between October 2024 and March 2025,a 6%increa

9、se compared to last year.Downside risks to Europes continued recovery were apparent this summer,including economic pressures(e.g.inflation,skyrocketing transport and accommodation costs),geopolitical conflicts and aviation strikes.There were high expectations for the revival of Chinese outbound trav

10、el,but recovery from this market has been slower than anticipated.Nevertheless,the upcoming October Golden Week should showcase Chinese travel enthusiasm.ETCs latest Long-haul Travel Barometer reports a significant year-on-year increase in Chinese travel intentions,with 83%of respondents expressing

11、interest in visiting Europe,a 9%rise from last year.This surge is supported by several factors,among which is the reintroduction of flights between China and Europe,which has rendered travel more accessible.This years peak summer season has been marked by a wave of protests in some of Europes touris

12、m hotspots with locals voicing their concerns over the negative impacts of mass tourism.In response,we have witnessed several destinations taking proactive actions to mitigate the negative effects of mass tourism.Strategies include limiting the number of visitors at certain sites during peak hours,p

13、romoting off-season travel and lesser-known destinations.Additionally,other countries are levying taxes on tourists to better manage the burden of increased traffic at some locations.While this summer in Europe has seen substantial growth in tourism volumes,it becomes increasingly important to ensur

14、e that this growth does not come at the expense of local communities and their ecosystems.With the appropriate balance,Europe can maintain its position as the leading tourism destination globally,while ensuring long-term benefits for the industry and local residents.Jennifer Iduh Head of Research&In

15、sights European Travel Commission(ETC)5 European tourism:Trends&prospects (Q3/2024)Table of contents Executive summary.6 1.Tourism Performance Summary 2024.9 2.Global Tourism Forecast Summary.13 3.Recent industry performance.14 3.1 Air transport.14 3.2 Accommodation.16 4.Key themes.20 4.1 Special fo

16、cus:Overtourism rising across areas of Europe.20 4.2 The value of European tourism.22 4.3 Risks.24 5.European travel sentiment tracker.25 6.Key source market performance.29 7.Origin market share analysis.38 8.Economic outlook.52 Appendix 1.59 Appendix 2.61 Appendix 3.62 6 Executive summary European

17、tourism surges this summer despite economic pressures and geopolitical headwinds European travel demand showed strong momentum during the summer months.Foreign arrivals to date increased 6%over 2019 while year-on-year growth rose 7%.The upward trend is supported by major events1,improved air connect

18、ivity,particularly from China and lingering pent-up demand.Pre-pandemic recovery is slow but steady,in Central and Eastern Europe due to the ongoing impacts of the war in Ukraine.While tourism has hit new heights so far in 2024,a number of protests against the impact of mass tourism took place acros

19、s Europe this summer.While headline inflation in Europe has peaked2 services inflation remains stubbornly high,translating into higher travel costs,that compel tourists to seek more affordable destinations.Recent forecasts suggest that tourists are expected to spend 10.3%more across Europe in 2024 c

20、ompared to 2023.However,economic uncertainty,geopolitical tensions and rising travel costs pose significant risks for Europes sustained recovery in 2024.Foreign visits to European destinations,2024 year-to-date Over 50%of reporting destinations have surpassed 2019 volumes of foreign arrivals based o

21、n year-to-date data,with nearly one third increasing over 10%.A mix of small and large destinations in Southern&Mediterranean Europe outperformed,including Malta(+32%)and Serbia(+34%),albeit from a lower base,Portugal and Greece(both+19%).Trkiye(+16%)is facing increased competition from other Medite

22、rranean destinations as budget-conscious travellers are deterred by rising prices.Montenegro(+14%)also performed well,while Spain(+11%)achieved record numbers this summer amid overtourism protests.Slowest recovery remains evident in The Baltics,Finland,Romania and Slovakia all reporting declines bet

23、ween 24%and 11%compared to 2019.Strong European air travel demand balances operational challenges European air passenger demand continued to rise through summer 2024,with a 3.4%increase in the three months to June compared to 2019.Although Julys cybersecurity incident and aviation strikes caused sig

24、nificant disruptions,destination performance was mixed,with less than half of European destinations experiencing an increase in the number of flights arriving and departing compared to June-August 2019.1 UEFA Euro 2024,Paris Olympic and Paralympic games.2 The euro area annual inflation rate was 2.2%

25、in August 2024,down from 2.6%in July.GeoNames,MSFT,Microsoft,Navteq,TomTomPowered by BingSource:TourMIS 7 Chinas travel resurgence is poised to boost global tourism following the October Golden Week Chinese outbound travel to Europe is recovering at a slower pace than expected.Virtually all reportin

26、g destinations registered declines in the influx of Chinese travellers over 2019.Although it represents only a small portion of Chinas total outbound travel to Europe,Serbia(+8%)was the only destination that saw an increase in Chinese tourist arrivals.Overnight stays rose significantly by 52.9%from

27、pre-pandemic levels.This performance mirrors strengthened economic and tourism ties between China and Serbia.Nevertheless,there is optimism for a strong recovery in the Chinese market following the October Golden Week,which is expected to boost global tourism.According to a survey by Dragon Trail,ne

28、arly 40%of survey respondents planning to travel during the remainder of 2024 intend to do so in October3.The survey also highlights Europe as the standout destination for long-haul travel,with respondents planning to visit a total of 28 European countries.Furthermore,ETCs latest Long-haul Travel Ba

29、rometer revealed heightened enthusiasm for travel from China,with 83%of respondents intending to visit Europe between September and December-up 9%compared to last autumn4.Outbound trips recovery from China by destination region European tourism is experiencing a strong revival,with visitor numbers a

30、nd spending surpassing pre-pandemic levels.This shift is transforming the continents travel landscape,presenting both opportunities and challenges for different destinations.While the adverse impacts of tourism on major tourism destinations are frequently discussed,for less-developed destinations,to

31、urism provides essential funding for infrastructure,generating job opportunities and allowing locals to proudly showcase their culture and traditions.“As destinations encourage travel to off-the-beaten-track locations,they alleviate the pressure put on tourism hotspots and support local economies an

32、d the environment.Lesser-known destinations will potentially benefit from increased visitor spending,a spending that can be reinvested to improve local infrastructure,support environmental conservation and create jobs among other things.This approach also fosters authentic cultural exchanges and sup

33、ports long-term community development.”said Eduardo Santander,CEO/Executive Director of the European Travel Commission(ETC).Destinations currently experiencing pushback from local residents are likely to see a decrease in the negative effects of tourism,as policies address these concerns and travell

34、ers seek out less popular destinations.Effective management strategies must align with evolving travel trends to ensure that the advantages of tourism largely outweigh the associated costs.3 https:/ 4 https:/etc-corporate.org/news/international-travellers-eye-europe-for-cultural-immersion-but-cost-r

35、emains-a-key-barrier/-1,2-1,0-0,8-0,6-0,4-0,20,0Jan-22Mar-22May-22Jul-22Sep-22Nov-22Jan-23Mar-23May-23Jul-23Sep-23Nov-23Jan-24Mar-24May-24Jul-24APAC excl.HK&MacaoHK&MacaoEuropeAmericas%relto 2019 levels,3mmaSource:Haver Analytics/National Statistics/Tourism Economics8 Tourism intensity in Europe in

36、2019 and 2024 2019:larger the dot,higher the tourism intensity 2024:red dot,higher intensity vs 2019 and green lower Jennifer Iduh(ETC Executive Unit)With the contribution of the ETC Market Intelligence Committee 9 1.Tourism Performance Summary 2024 Summary International travel to Europe so far this

37、 summer has continued to build on the recovery reported in last quarters report.Latest data from TourMIS,which largely goes up to August shows European arrivals 6.0%ahead of 2019 levels and nights 4.9%ahead.Although both are firmly in growth territory,the summer months have seen a faster pace of gro

38、wth in arrivals than nights.This reverses the trend earlier in the year when nights were outpacing arrivals.Europe reported a surge in tourist overnights in 2023 and so far,it is on track to surpass last years demand.Year-on-year arrivals are up 7.1%and nights 5.2%this summer.Although higher travel

39、costs and uncertainties over weather conditions and geopolitical tensions have persisted,tourists have continued to prioritise travel,appreciating its value and importance on their lives.Foreign visits and overnights to select destinations The proportion of destinations reporting arrivals or nights

40、above 2019 levels has increased in recent months to nearly 70%,up from 60%last quarter.The outlook for some smaller destinations,in volume terms has notably improved over recent months,including arrivals to Montenegro(up from 6.3%last quarter to 19.2%)and nights-30-20-10010203040SerbiaMaltaPortugalG

41、reeceNetherlandsTrkiyeMontenegroUKSpainNorwayIcelandItalySloveniaDenmarkSwedenBelgiumLuxembourgBulgariaFrancePolandCyprusCroatiaAustriaSwitzerlandHungaryCzechiaGermanyMonacoRomaniaSlovakiaFinlandEstoniaLatviaLithuaniaArrivalsNightsSource:TourMIS*date varies(Jan-Aug)by destination2024year-to-date*,%c

42、hange relative to 2019 levelsSerbia,58.5%(N)Croatia,0.2%(N)Inbound travel to Europe remains firmly in growth territory,with arrivals in 2024 to date up 6.0%and nights up 4.9%on 2019,according to the latest data on the TourMIS platform which covers the majority of the summer period(up to August)for r

43、eporting destinations.Summer travel(June-August)so far has continued to build on last year.Arrivals to Europe are ahead of 2023 by 7.1%and nights 5.2%.Across both metrics,only Iceland and Luxembourg are reporting a decline in nights year-on-year.Currently Europe is on track to exceed last years numb

44、er of tourist arrivals despite persistently elevated costs for tourism-related businesses.Central and Eastern European destinations continue to lag behind in the recovery to 2019,but year-on-year performance for many countries in these sub-regions remains strong,indicating the recovery is still on t

45、rack,albeit more delayed than others.Air traffic delays have continued to disrupt destinations in recent months,impacting them at a time when they typically see the largest turnover of travellers.The impact across countries has varied considerably,with tourists travelling through Germany and Greece

46、facing some of the worst delays.10 spent in Slovakia(up from-11.8%to-5.3%).There have also been some stronger outturns across larger and more established destinations such as the Netherlands,where arrivals are now 8.2%ahead of 2019 and Croatia recording a 10.7%increase in arrivals over the same peri

47、od.On the whole,growth in the last quarter relative to 2019 has largely been concentrated in nights and among the destinations which have yet to fully recover.The modest growth data for France in 2024 is only preliminary and up to June and does not include the impacts of the Olympic and Paralympic g

48、ames in August and September.Industry data suggests that arrivals followed a typical pattern during this period,with many tourists staying away out of concern of overcrowding.This effect typically extends to the period immediately surrounding mega-events,but is often followed by a strong rebound and

49、 growth period as the destination has been in the spotlight.Europe is on track to exceed prior levels so far this year,as in all months,apart from April,arrivals have been ahead of last year.This is based on data from TourMIS and comparing the same set of destinations.Annual growth started to modera

50、te towards the start of the summer,but it picked up again in August;and the final outturn for that month is likely to be stronger as more countries report data.At a country level,all but two destinations are reporting growth year-on-year across both metrics.Luxembourg(-4.3%)and Iceland(-5.6%)are see

51、ing fewer nights than in 2023.For Luxembourg,the decline in overnights was largely due to a drop in the camping sector(especially with regard to Dutch guests),given the exceptionally high volumes last year.This comparison also highlights the improvement in arrivals in destinations within Central and

52、 Eastern Europe,in particular,Romania(12.8%),Latvia(12.7%)and Estonia(10.7%),albeit on a small base.Although they still have some of the largest gains to make to recover to 2019 levels,they are on an upward trajectory.European arrivals 2024,year-on-year growth(%)by month As demand is on track to rea

53、ch new highs,some destinations struggled to manage the continued influx of tourists over the peak summer period(June-August).This has led to protests in hotspots across Europe,notably in Spain(between May-June)and Greece(July),highlighting concerns and issues with overtourism,questioning whether the

54、 value that tourists bring in terms of income and employment is still more than the strain it puts on the environment,natural resources and local residents.There was a concern that the visibility of these protests would deter tourists and it is likely to have contributed to people choosing alternati

55、ve destinations instead,but with tourism activity across Europe up on 2023 and 2019 levels,there appears so far to have had any significant impact on growth.Headline inflation in the region has continued to improve,with the European Central Bank and the Bank of England cutting rates over the summer.

56、However,services inflation including tourism price inflation,has remained sticky.Tourism businesses typically face higher costs over the summer due to the higher volume of tourists e.g.in the form of food,beverages and utilities.Services inflation has remained ahead of headline inflation throughout

57、the year to September.Within services,prices for tourism-related services have been a mixed bag so far this year,when comparing against 2023.Prices for international flights in the Euro Area continued to decline in July and fares picked up slightly in August.The decrease-5%0%5%10%15%20%JanFebMarAprM

58、ayJunJulAugSource:TourMIS%year11 likely reflects lower fuel costs for carriers,but also to some extent some discounting to encourage increased travel over the summer period.In contrast,accommodation and package holiday price inflation(both domestic and international)continue to exceed services infla

59、tion,although growth rates did become more aligned during July and August.Tourists have become more accustomed to the higher prices associated with holidays and travel and have continued to prioritise this despite paying more for their trips this summer.Euro area inflation(%),seasonally adjusted,HIC

60、P definition Tourism price inflation remains a concern to the continued recovery and growth in tourism across the region,affecting both intra-regional and long-haul demand.For source markets outside of the Euro area,relative inflation is also important to tourists from further afield such as in the

61、Americas and Asia Pacific.Although US arrivals into Europe still remain up on 2023,the latest long-haul travel barometer by the ETC has found that 44%of travellers from long-haul markets highlight cost as the biggest barrier to travel to Europe.Frequent air traffic disruptions over the summer involv

62、ing a number of different European countries are likely to have dampened the recovery and growth across the region.Recent statistics have reported that nearly 40%of passengers in Europe this summer experienced delays or cancellations.Delays and disruptions are nothing new for tourists across Europe

63、as they have been fairly persistent since international borders reopened following the pandemic.A lot of issues(flights cancelled in Sicily following the eruption of Mount Etna and air traffic control delays in Greece affecting around 50%of passengers between June and August),were reported in Southe

64、rn and Mediterranean countries including Greece and Italy and some of this could be down to the sheer rise in demand and an increased timetable of flights to meet this growth.A more concentrated flight schedule and airspace across the region,can mean that a small delay has the potential to cause a l

65、arge knock-on effect to other flights.Despite persistent issues in air traffic,tourists continued to visit these destinations and the recovery in the Southern Mediterranean region remains strong.But for countries such as Germany which have been slow to come back,both in terms of air travel and inter

66、national arrivals and nights,delays and cancellations will push back the eventual recovery.Disruptions are set to continue into the final quarter of the year with travel strikes already on the books for October.Although fewer people will be affected in the shoulder season than over the summer,disrup

67、tions may lead tourists to seek alternative destinations or transport methods to avoid delays or cancellations.-8-6-4-20246810Jan-24Feb-24Mar-24Apr-24May-24Jun-24Jul-24Aug-24Sep-24HeadlineServicesInternational flightsAccommodationTotal package holidaysSource:HaverAnalytics%year12 Summary performance

68、 2024,year to date%change relative to 2019 and 2023 Country%YTD vs.2019%YTD vs.2023to month%YTD vs.2019YTD%vs.2023to monthAustria-0.8%3.7%Jan-Jul-1.0%1.5%Jan-JulBelgium3.0%3.1%Jan-Jun4.9%2.5%Jan-JunBulgaria3.0%4.9%Jan-AugCroatia0.0%2.9%Jan-Sep0.2%0.6%Jan-SepCyprus0.8%4.1%Jan-JanCzechia-4.9%12.8%Jan-

69、Jun-8.5%10.9%Jan-JunDenmark8.8%3.2%Jan-JulEstonia-18.3%10.7%Jan-Jul-17.4%7.8%Jan-JulFinland-15.8%11.4%Jan-Aug-12.9%9.9%Jan-AugFrance-0.5%3.8%Jan-Jun1.8%2.7%Jan-JunGermany-6.0%9.5%Jan-Jul-5.3%6.8%Jan-JulGreece19.2%11.2%Jan-JulHungary-1.0%17.2%Jan-Aug-4.7%10.9%Jan-AugIceland10.0%0.7%Jan-Aug0.6%-5.6%Ja

70、n-AugItaly5.1%1.6%Jan-Jul9.6%5.0%Jan-JulLatvia-20.9%12.7%Jan-Jul-28.9%7.2%Jan-JulLithuania-23.5%5.2%Jan-Jun-23.2%3.2%Jan-JunLuxembourg3.7%1.8%Jan-Jul-0.1%-4.3%Jan-JulMalta31.7%23.4%Jan-Jun19.7%15.7%Jan-JunMonaco-6.5%2.9%Jan-Aug-5.7%3.6%Jan-AugMontenegro13.7%1.0%Jan-Aug12.5%2.2%Jan-AugNetherlands4.5%

71、2.6%Jan-Jul18.2%0.8%Jan-JulNorway8.7%Jan-Aug10.5%7.9%Jan-AugPoland1.4%6.1%Jan-Jul-4.7%3.9%Jan-JulPortugal19.3%7.5%Jan-Jun16.2%5.8%Jan-JunRomania-12.6%12.8%Jan-Aug-7.9%9.2%Jan-AugSerbia33.5%14.2%Jan-Jul58.5%10.1%Jan-JulSlovakia-11.1%3.3%Jan-Jul-16.7%5.0%Jan-JulSlovenia8.2%7.7%Jan-Aug9.2%6.3%Jan-AugSp

72、ain10.7%11.2%Jan-Aug7.5%8.2%Jan-AugSweden5.1%9.1%Jan-AugSwitzerland-0.8%6.1%Jan-Aug-0.9%4.4%Jan-AugTrkiye15.5%7.1%Jan-AugUK4.0%11.0%Jan-Jun12.0%5.0%Jan-JunInternational ArrivalsInternational NightsSources:TourMIS(http:/www.tourmis.info)and VisitBritain(f)denotes forecast provided by memberMeasures u

73、sed for nights and arrivals vary by country.Available data as of 21.10.202413 2.Global Tourism Forecast Summary Tourism Economics global travel forecasts are shown on an inbound and outbound basis in the following table.These are the results of the Global Travel Service(GTS)model,which is updated in

74、 detail three times per year.Forecasts are consistent with Oxford Economics macroeconomic outlook according to estimated relationships between tourism and the wider economy.Full origin-destination country detail is available online to subscribers.GTS visitor growth forecasts,%change year-on-year 202

75、1202220232024202520212022202320242025data/estimate/forecast*defffdefffWorld13.7%102.6%36.5%14.2%12.7%12.4%106.3%37.2%14.6%12.7%Americas17.4%90.0%27.4%9.5%10.6%17.6%96.1%31.7%9.6%9.5%North America21.3%78.7%24.6%10.1%12.2%23.9%84.4%30.5%9.8%9.1%Caribbean56.0%53.2%17.9%7.5%6.9%46.2%92.5%19.0%10.0%15.9%

76、Central&South America-24.1%208.1%43.4%8.8%8.4%-13.7%172.1%38.2%8.9%10.7%Europe27.4%91.8%18.5%9.4%9.7%24.1%99.3%19.7%10.2%10.1%ETC+223.6%100.7%18.3%8.3%8.4%19.4%106.8%18.8%8.6%8.2%EU 2717.7%106.5%18.9%8.3%8.1%19.3%109.6%19.0%8.5%8.3%Non-EU72.1%45.4%16.7%14.4%16.7%46.5%60.0%23.4%17.9%17.9%Northern-5.7

77、%203.8%17.7%7.0%8.5%-7.0%226.3%20.8%8.7%8.6%Western 4.8%93.6%22.0%3.8%6.2%30.7%83.2%17.3%6.8%7.8%Southern/Mediterranean59.5%89.5%16.8%8.3%8.1%25.0%108.9%21.9%9.7%7.4%Central/Eastern 28.2%41.2%16.8%27.2%21.3%24.9%57.1%24.1%16.9%11.5%-Central&Baltic9.3%92.3%17.5%20.7%10.8%11.4%79.1%18.7%14.3%9.2%Asia&

78、the Pacific-55.1%233.9%173.4%34.0%21.3%-51.3%199.9%176.3%35.8%22.4%North East-36.4%55.0%418.5%43.8%24.2%-54.7%89.8%371.4%46.1%27.0%South East-87.6%1216.5%136.2%28.6%19.7%-67.5%424.5%105.8%24.3%16.4%South10.4%99.6%15.3%19.4%14.9%11.8%174.3%43.7%23.1%13.5%Oceania-80.1%827.9%93.1%20.5%17.6%-65.5%785.3%

79、74.6%14.3%12.6%Africa26.6%89.3%37.1%15.5%10.9%5.2%99.5%42.4%16.6%13.4%Middle East19.0%157.6%39.8%8.6%14.6%50.6%130.8%25.6%5.1%11.0%*Inbound is based on the sum of the country overnight tourist arrivals and includes intra-regional flows*Outbound is based on the sum of visits to all destinations*data

80、is the final historical numbers available.Estimates are using high frequency indicatorsThe geographies of Europe are defined as follows:Northern Europe is Denmark,Finland,Iceland,Ireland,Norway,Sweden,and the UK;Western Europe is Austria,Belgium,France,Germany,Luxembourg,Netherlands,and Switzerland;

81、Central&Baltic Europe is Bulgaria,Czechia,Estonia,Hungary,Latvia,Lithuania,Moldova,Poland,Romania,and Slovakia;ETC+2 is all ETC members plus Sweden,and the United KingdomSource:Tourism Economics based on GTS as of 21.10.2024Southern/Mediterranean Europe is Albania,Bosnia-Herzegovina,Croatia,Cyprus,G

82、reece,Italy,Malta,Montenegro,North Macedonia,Portugal,Serbia,Slovenia,Spain,and Central/Eastern Europe is Armenia,Azerbaijan,Belarus,Bulgaria,Czechia,Estonia,Georgia,Hungary,Kazakhstan,Kyrgyzstan,Latvia,Lithuania,Moldova,Poland,Romania,Russian Federation,Slovakia,and Ukraine;Inbound*Outbound*14 3.Re

83、cent industry performance 3.1 Air transport Since the last report(Q2),European air passenger demand has continued its steady upward trajectory as Europe entered peak summer travel season.At the time of the previous report,while monthly performance had exceeded 2019 levels on two occasions since the

84、industry began its post-pandemic recovery(in December 2023 and April 2024),the 3-month moving average figure(3mth mav)had yet to breach the same recovery threshold.However,further and consistent growth in demand has finally pulled that average above the benchmark.Further,there was clear upward momen

85、tum with demand growth averaging 2.1%in the three months to May,rising to 3.4%in the three months to June.International air passenger growth(%),Europe Regional Air Passenger Outlook:It is possible that this momentum stalled in July as the industry in Europe(and beyond)suffered several disruptions wh

86、ich are likely to have dented growth temporarily.The main disruptive event of the month was caused by a faulty update from CrowdStrike whose flagship product(Falcon)provides cybersecurity protection.Highly regulated industries such as air travel are required to have a system like this installed on a

87、ll machines and with CrowdStrike having significant market share for this product,it is used widely by airports and airlines across the world.The faulty update caused millions of devices on which the industry relies to malfunction and resulted in thousands of flight cancellations over a three-day pe

88、riod.The biggest impact in terms of flight cancellations was felt by US carriers;FlightAware,which tracks cancellations in real time,reported that United Airlines cancelled 7%of their scheduled flights,with American Airlines and Delta cancelling 8%and 12%,respectively.Over 5,000 flights were cancell

89、ed in the United States on one day of the disruption.Other regions of the world,including Europe,were also affected,with Air Asia,Air India,Air France,Quantas,Ryanair,and many others caught up in the incident.From the perspective of Europes airports,both Amsterdam and Barcelona El Prat airports expe

90、rienced significant cancellations on the first day of the incident,but quickly resumed normal operations.Looking ahead,this incident highlights the risks inherent in centralised systems and the potential threats posed by malicious actors.Furthermore,several civil aviation strikes took place in July

91、across several European countries including Ireland,Italy,and the UK,and disruption arising from these strikes may also depress growth for the month.-70-60-50-40-30-20-10010Dec-21Jan-22Feb-22Mar-22Apr-22May-22Jun-22Jul-22Aug-22Sep-22Oct-22Nov-22Dec-22Jan-23Feb-23Mar-23Apr-23May-23Jun-23Jul-23Aug-23S

92、ep-23Oct-23Nov-23Dec-23Jan-24Feb-24Mar-24Apr-24May-24Jun-24Total3mth mavSource:IATA%change on 2019,RPK15 Regionally,international air passenger demand growth to and from Africa has been somewhat subdued with the exception of May,when RPK grew 8.5%compared to the same month in 2019.However,in 2019 th

93、e Islamic holy month of Ramadan covered all but six days of May.During Ramadan,travelling to or from Islamic countries is likely to be at a much lower level than normal.Since Ramadan moves each year,demand in May 2024 was unaffected and is thus inflating the underlying trend.This effect is even more

94、 evident in the Middle East where Ramadan is more widely observed.International monthly air passenger growth(%change)Flight data from Eurocontrol provides country level detail for Europe to August.These data show that performance has been mixed in recent months.Based on the latest three months(June-

95、August),fewer than half of European countries saw an increase in the number of flights arriving and departing compared to the same three months of 2019.But this does not necessarily indicate a lack of demand.Increasingly,supply shortages in several areas of the industry have been a concern;so far in

96、 2024 passenger load factor across Europe has been equivalent or higher than 2019 and is likely to continue rising as airlines struggle to acquire new aircraft to bolster their fleets and/or to maintain the current fleet.This is due to parts shortages and backlogs in MRO facilities(a workshop or han

97、gar that engages in and conducts aircraft maintenance,repairs,and overhaul services to ensure aircraft safety,reliability,and airworthiness through an aircrafts lifecycle).It will stifle a net increase in flight volumes,but it also means airlines will need to be savvy with their fleets to reallocate

98、 aircraft away from less to more lucrative routes.This appears to be the case across Europe,where a very marginal decline in flight volumes over the June-August period compared to 2019 is balanced by winners and losers at a country level:Malta enjoyed the biggest increase in the number of flights wi

99、th 16.1%more flights across June-August compared to the same period in 2019.August 2024 was Maltas busiest month on record in terms of passengers handled and a passenger load factor of 91.2%.Greece recorded 15.4%more flights compared to the same three months in 2019(June-August),representing a margi

100、nal slowdown compared to March-May.This implies that Greece has been extending demand into its shoulder season on that basis,there could be some uptick in flight volumes at the tail end of the season.Slovakia saw the biggest growth in flight volumes in the latest three-month period compared to the t

101、hree months prior(March-May),with an increase of 3.3%(compared to a decrease of 18.2%across March-May).In contrast to Greece,this implies that Slovakias season is becoming more concentrated in the peak summer months.AfricaAsia/PacificEuropeLatin AmericaMiddle EastN.America-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%

102、30%35%Mar-24Apr-24May-24Jun-24Source:IATA%change vs.2019,RPK16 European air traffic by country,total flights arriving and departing%change 3.2 Accommodation Hotels across all regions continued to perform well based on the data for the first nine months of 2024.Growth rates resemble more normalised l

103、evels now,with much of the pandemic impact gone.Based on RevPAR(revenue per available room)a composite measure of hotel occupancy and room rates growth across all regions averaged 3.4%(down from 4.9%last quarter),ranging from 0.8%to 5.9%compared to the same period a year ago.Global Outlook:Global ho

104、tel performance softened across the board in terms of RevPAR over the last four months(June-September)compared to the same period in 2023,except for in Europe.Slower annual growth in the other regions reflected a weaker outturn in both ADR(average daily room rate)and occupancy.This suggests that hot

105、els had slightly less pricing power during the summer season(June-August)compared to last year.In Europe,RevPAR growth based on data to September was the highest among all regions at 5.9%compared to the corresponding months in 2023,it is now ahead of the Middle East/Africa which has recently seen so

106、me of the strongest growth.Hotels were able to push up room rates 4.6%ahead of last year,while maintaining a small rise in occupancy.As occupancy has held despite the higher prices,it suggests the majority of tourists are still happy to pay these prices.But surveys(including the ETC long-haul barome

107、ter survey)suggest that costs continue to be a big issue for long-haul travellers.However,with arrivals from Asia Pacific still slow to recover,it appears that price rises,and occupancy are largely driven by intra-regional tourists.The peak summer season in Europe(June-August)is also a factor contri

108、buting to European ADR and RevPAR outpacing the other regions in the latest data.Furthermore,the increased popularity of travel in the shoulder seasons,including September,is likely to be a factor supporting the maintenance of these prices.Asia Pacific continued to report the softest annual growth r

109、ates year-to-date for both ADR and RevPAR.ADR and RevPAR so far this year are only ahead of 2023 by 0.4%and 0.8%respectively.Most outbound travel from China remains concentrated within the region,with international demand still to gain significant pace,so hotel performance is still significantly lin

110、ked to this market and short-haul demand.Occupancy growth in the Americas has remained unchanged since last quarter,with occupancy growth continuing to fall by-0.4%compared to the same period in 2023.In contrast,ADR growth has softened to 1.9%(down from 3%),and this has coincided with the downward t

111、rend in the headline inflation rate which has continued to slow to September,falling to 2.4%.RevPAR in the Middle East and Africa continues to be driven by solid growth in ADR(4.1%).However,the gap between ADR and occupancy growth widened over the summer.Occupancy growth is now just 1.3%,representin

112、g a decrease from 3.1%based on the first five months of this year.The composition of the hotel MaltaGreeceSerbiaCyprusMontenegroPolandTrkiyePortugalTrkiyeCroatiaBulgariaSpainSlovakiaHungaryIrelandLuxembourgSwitzerlandLithuaniaRomaniaNetherlandsDenmarkUKNorwayFranceBelgiumCzech Rep.EstoniaAustriaSwed

113、enFinlandGermanySloveniaLatviaTotal*-40-30-20-100102030latest rolling 3 month average vs.same period 2019pp improvement vs.previous rolling 3 month averageSource:Eurocontrol%change vs.2019,no.flights17 market in this region,the continued popularity of certain Middle Eastern destinations such as Duba

114、i and intra-regional demand are likely to be factors enabling hotels to continue strong price growth,while maintaining an improvement in occupancy levels.In contrast,heightened tensions in the Middle East is expected to see certain destinations such as Lebanon and Jordan continue to struggle.Global

115、hotel performance Europe reported a softer outturn in occupancy over the summer and into September.A possible factor contributing to modest annual growth rates in occupancy is the fact that occupancy rates tend to peak for many destinations over the summer.High room occupancy across June-August will

116、 limit the scale of additional year-on-year improvements as it is capped at 100%,but growth can vary depending on room capacity within each destination.This is also reflected across the sub-regions,with all reporting a drop in annual growth compared to last quarter(data up to May).Both Eastern and W

117、estern Europe were consistent with the wider region,reporting stronger growth in ADR,with this component solely driving the improvement in RevPAR.ADR growth rates are starting to moderate across the region,following the same trend reported in headline inflation.Annual inflation rates have become mor

118、e manageable this year,to the extent that the European Central Bank has been able to cut interest rates.But survey data from various sources(Travel Industry Monitory,ETC long-haul barometer)suggests that costs are still challenging for businesses in the industry.Thankfully for the industry,tourists

119、are still accepting these higher prices to travel because visitor numbers so far this year remain up on the same period in 2023.-20246810Asia/PacificAmericasEuropeMiddle East/AfricaOccADR()RevPAR()Source:STRJan-Sep year-to-date,%change year ago18 Short-term rentals With over 4.7 million short-term r

120、ental units as of August 2024,Europe experienced roughly 11.3%year-over-year(YOY)supply growth,or growth of approximately 479,000 short-term rental units since August 2023.Since the last issuance of this report,which included Lighthouses short-term rental data as of May 2024,supply increased by appr

121、oximately 4.8%,or 217,000 properties.The largest European country in terms of short-term rental properties is France.With over 1.1 million properties as of August 2024,France boasts 23.5%of all of Europes short-term rental supply.The second largest country in Europe in terms of short-term rental sup

122、ply is Italy,which offered 683,000 units as of August 2024.Despite offering the second largest pool of short-term rental units,Italys supply still represents only 62%of Frances supply.It is also worth noting that more than three-quarters of Europes short-term rental supply is concentrated in the top

123、 8 countries as of August 2024.Other than the aforementioned France and Italy,the top 8 countries(in order of supply)include Spain(487k units),the United Kingdom(363k units),Germany(347k units),Croatia(238k units),Greece(207k units),and Poland(176k units).Short-term rental units across Europe,2024,y

124、ear-to-date to August In terms of markets with a minimum of 50,000 short-term rental units,the country with the largest YOY percentage growth from August 2023 to August 2024 was Norway,which experienced nearly 26%increase,with its supply growing from 50,000 to 63,000 units over that 12-month span.Co

125、mparatively speaking,in terms of absolute unit count growth,France sits atop that list with approximately 169,000 properties added to the supply YOY,with that supply growth certainly influenced by the Parisian Olympics over the summer.From an ADR perspective,Monaco(which was the highest ADR market a

126、s of May 2024)remains at the top of the list for short-term rental pricing.Its median ADR of approximately 233 in August 2024 increased its average monthly median ADR to 208 through YTD August,a marginal increase from the YTD average of 207 through May 2024.At a macro level,Europe-wide median ADR in

127、 August 2024 was approximately 129,which represents a YOY increase of 8.7%from the 119 median ADR from August 2023.Strictly looking at major short-term rental markets with a minimum of 100,000 units,the largest YOY median ADR increase when comparing August 2024 to August 2023 was achieved by Poland.

128、The nation achieved nearly 20%YOY growth in median ADR,while its supply similarly experienced significant YOY growth of approximately 12%over the same time period.0200.000400.000600.000800.0001.000.0001.200.000FranceItalySpainUnitedKingdomGermanyCroatiaGreecePolandPortugalAustriaSource:LighthouseNum

129、berof short-term rentals19 20 4.Key themes Summary 4.1 Special focus:Overtourism rising across areas of Europe Despite tourism being a significant contributor to GDP for many countries across Europe(WTTC forecasts the total contribution to Europe to be 2.4 trillion in 2024),the seasonality and inten

130、sity with which tourism occurs in certain destinations has led to revival of the“overtourism”discussion post-pandemic.Overtourism generally relates to visitation and perception during the peak period,which across Europe is the summer months(June-August).Some cities and islands in Greece and Italy ha

131、ve already implemented policies intended to dilute the negative impacts of tourism,by stemming the flow of tourists and levying taxes on their presence.Anti-tourist sentiment made the news this summer,with large-scale tourism-related protests in some popular destinations such as Barcelona and the Ca

132、nary Islands.Tourism intensity across selected European cities(tourist nights per capita)424446484104124144164202420232019Total nightsper capitaSource:Tourism Economics Tourists continued to return to Europe in large numbers over the summer.But some destinations saw a disproportionally higher number

133、 of these tourists than others.As a result,they faced additional strains on the environment,local residents and resources leading to protests across the regions.Overtourism has come back to the forefront of conversations given the experience of some cities and resorts this summer.Especially as the b

134、enefits that tourism brings are not always equally distributed.Smaller lesser-known destinations,such as Albania have become more popular since the pandemic,but the volume of arrivals to these are still significantly less than more established destinations such as Greece and Spain.Countries and citi

135、es have taken measures to become more resilient to the expected continued rise in tourist volumes.These measures aim to reduce the flow of tourists in concentrated areas,spread tourists out to other destinations across the country and maximise the value they receive from tourism.Visitor value is inc

136、reasingly important to the industry as survey data continues to point towards financial conditions as the biggest challenge at a global and European level.21 Part of the issue is the uneven distribution of tourists at a city/resort level.One measure of the intensity of tourism can be defined as the

137、number of nights spent by tourists in a destination relative to the local population.This metric varies considerably across the continent and shows that a minority of cities are bearing the brunt of this influx of tourists;impacting infrastructure,residents,prices,environment(increased waste and pol

138、lution),and local services.However,it is important to note for destinations that see a larger volume of same-day tourists such as Venice and Barcelona,the nights per capita measure alone may not fully capture the level of tourism intensity experienced in these destinations.The economic impact and be

139、nefits of tourism are also not always equally distributed.For instance,there are examples of where lower-income residents are priced out of their own cities,while property-owners profit from increased destination popularity.Tourists from wealthy source markets are generally happy to pay higher price

140、s than residents,particularly when it comes to accommodation and food&beverage services,which can in turn drive prices up further.This can be particularly prevalent in low-cost destinations.But the strain faced by destinations is not consistent year-round.Annual events can play a role in seasonality

141、,such as the Edinburgh Fringe Festival which brings about a significant,though short-lived,influx of tourists for the month of August.Cruise ship dockings also exhibit a similar trend,with large influxes of visitors during the daytime,who ultimately return onboard by the evening.The value cruise tou

142、rists provide to a local economy is more limited as they receive on-board meals and accommodation,spending less in local businesses.However,cruise visitor spending is high on a per hour basis,and they are also not adding to any strain on accommodation services which are evident in some cities with l

143、imited and inelastic housing supply.On the other hand,visitors via this mode of transport do contribute to higher emissions and pollution,compared to other forms or transport and frequently increase congestion within cities,in particularly Venice.As a result,tourist movements such as these complicat

144、e the process of clearly quantifying the potential impacts of overtourism.Island destinations tend to disproportionately suffer from overtourism,given their limited ability to absorb inbound tourists,both physically and economically.It is not a surprise that a lot of destinations that have witnessed

145、 protests this summer are also islands.For example,Santorini,an island off the coast of Greece has seen significant influx of visitors as it has emerged as a(no longer)“hidden gem”,with the mayor calling to halve cruise ship visitors and cap bed nights on the island below their present level.The imp

146、acts of approaching market saturation is much more apparent in island destinations,as there is“nowhere else to go”.Tourist arrivals to selected Spanish destinations(index 2014=100)The increased prevalence of overtourism and sustainability on travellers minds appears to be feeding into destination su

147、bstitution.Examples of these substitutions can include visiting Albania instead of Greece,or at a city level going to Vilnius and Bucharest instead of Barcelona and Venice.Arrivals data over the last year has seen a greater lesser-known destinations grow more quickly than more established destinatio

148、ns,albeit in very small numbers at an absolute level.At a country level,Albania has continued to report an uptick in visitor arrivals.At a city/resort level within Spain,major destinations(such as Ibiza,Tenerife and Lanzarote)are not growing at the pace of fast-expanding,lesser-known destinations wi

149、thin the country,such as El Hierro and Sevilla.Although growth in 42444648410412414416418420142015201620172018201920202021202220232024BarcelonaEl HierroIbiza-FormenteraLanzaroteSevillaTenerife2014=100Source:Tourism Economics22 these smaller destinations is encouraging,tourism demand is rising from a

150、 small base.But it is a start in the process of improving the distribution of tourists across the country,reducing the concentration in the major hotspots.Destinations are taking varied approaches to tackle overtourism.New and existing measures largely aim to tackle the inflow of certain types of to

151、urists.An example of this is Amsterdams digital discouragement campaign,which was launched with the intention of reducing Amsterdams flow of party tourists.It can be argued that this type of tourist does not bring about as much value or benefits to the city as other tourists,and also arguably involv

152、es some higher costs such as the strain on local services to ensure the safety of tourists and cleanliness of the city.Measures have also been taken to improve the distribution of tourists.Portugal is an example of this,develop a 3,000km long circular walking route with the aim of spreading out tour

153、ists across the country along with the economic and financial benefits tourism brings.There is a balancing act with these policies,to ensure they do not significantly reduce the total number of tourists,but rather redistribute and them across more towns,cities and resorts.If successful,this would al

154、leviate pressure on previously over-visited destinations and increase the value received in alternative destinations,improving their ability to invest in their services.Overtourism will continue to evolve over time as new travel trends and preferences emerge for both domestic and international touri

155、sts.Areas that currently face pushback from the local residents will likely see a reduction in the negative impacts of tourism,as government policy develops to mitigate such issues and some travellers search for destinations further off the beaten track.Management action needs to be coupled with cha

156、nges in travel trends to ensure that the benefits of tourism continue,in the most part,to outweigh the negative impacts.4.2 The value of European tourism Latest data and forecasts suggest that tourists are expected to spend 10.3%more across Europe in 2024 compared to 2023.This equates to 719.7bn eur

157、os(nominal terms),with Western Europe alone accounting for 74%of this.Higher levels of inflation will naturally cause an increase in nominal spending,but increased demand for travel will also contribute to the rise.Although inflation across Europe has peaked,insights from surveys,including the ETC l

158、ong-haul travel barometer in Q3 2024,suggests that tourists from some source markets such as Brazil are more cost conscious when booking travel this year.Cost-conscious decision-making can take many forms including,shorter visits,lower in-destination budget and/or a reduced number of trips taken.The

159、se can all impact the value a destination gets from tourism activity.Trkiye is a recent example of this,where recovery in arrivals and nights has slowed in recent months as tourists have become more responsive to price rises and seek better value-for-money alternatives.Data from Tourism Economics Tr

160、avel Industry Monitor survey over this year has suggested that tourists are more budget-focused,and spend data is also starting to point in this direction.Among the large and established markets,Spain,Italy and France continue to post double-digit growth ahead of pre-pandemic levels,along with stron

161、g year-on-year growth from 2023.The outlook across Central and Eastern Europe remains mixed with destinations such as Slovakia struggling to achieve the same level of tourism value reported in 2019.In contrast,Latvia is currently seeing inbound travel spend 28.7%ahead of 2019 levels which is in star

162、k contrast to the recovery that is still underway in both arrivals and nights.It seems that the tourists in Latvia are spending more while they are there and to an extent that it is offsetting the fewer numbers of arrivals than in 2019.North Macedonia(53.3%)is also experiencing strong growth in inbo

163、und spend so far this year,potentially benefiting from increased demand as a less well-known destination and if they are attracting more tourists in the Gen-Z demographic,studies suggest they typically spend the most on travel.Inbound spend across selected European countries ranges from 116.7%above

164、2019 levels to-12.4%below based on data up to July this year(dates vary by country).The strong rise in arrivals into Serbia,albeit from a lower base than other destinations in Europe is also translating into triple-digit growth in inbound spend.In fact,spend is significantly higher than arrivals rel

165、ative to 2019 so far this year.The slower recovery in international travel to Germany is also reflected in expenditure,with inbound spend-3.9%less than in 2019.However,the monthly trend is looking up,giving some confidence that it will break through into growth territory in the near-future.23 Inboun

166、d travel spend in selected European destinations(%change vs 2019)Length of stay also adds to the value of tourist arrivals at a destination;a longer trip will entail more expenditure on accommodation and food,and generate more value per tourist.Out of the selected destinations below,most are current

167、ly seeing a higher average length of stay than in the same period in 2019.For the Netherlands,it is currently 16%higher,followed by Croatia(8%)and Denmark(6%).Montenegro is on the other end of the scale with significantly lower average stay by foreign tourist arrivals compared to 2019.Other destinat

168、ions facing lower average length of stays are Poland and Latvia,both of which are in Eastern Europe and in close proximity to Russias war in Ukraine.The proximity could be resulting in tourists deciding to stay in these destinations for shorter periods than they otherwise would have due to confidenc

169、e levels,but also down to a change in the type of travellers e.g.those travelling for business,leisure or to visit friends and family.Average length of stay in selected European destinations(%change vs 2019)-20-1001020304050602024 year-to-date,%change relative to 2019 lvelsSources:Haver Analytics*da

170、te varies(Jan-July)by destinationSerbia,116.7%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%Sources:Haver/National Statistics/Tourism Economics*date varies(Jan-Aug)by destination24 4.3 Risks The Tourism Industry Monitor(TIM)survey gauges industry professionals evaluation of the overall health of tourism globally,as well

171、as its opportunities and challenges.Results from the Q3 survey continues to highlight the same top four key global challenges to tourism.If the cost of accommodation,business and flights were aggregated as financial factors,they would have represented 90%of respondents.But conditions have eased as t

172、he year has gone on,with the percentage of respondents highlighting financial factors decreasing to 88%in Q3.It did drop more in Q2 of this year,the slight increase on the quarter may be due to heightened seasonal demand.The results from European markets have shown a significantly higher percentage

173、of responses identifying the cost of accommodation as a key tourism challenge in Q3 at 74%,higher than the global figure of 62%.Many destinations in Europe are facing significant seasonal demand which can account for some,if not the majority of this quarters results.Although staffing issues improved

174、 throughout the surveys,both at a global and European level,there could still be certain areas within Europe where these issues are more significant.This is evident in frequency of strikes stemming from the air traffic industry,where the reason behind some of these have been linked to staffing short

175、ages.Top 4 key global tourism challenges Overtourism is not highlighted as a top global tourism challenge,however it is likely to be more of a challenge in selected national and sub-national destinations.The latest survey revealed that there has been a shift in public perceptions concerning overtour

176、ism and sustainable tourism.This is supported by data from Google,highlighting that there has been shift in public perceptions concerning overtourism and sustainable tourism.Comparing the prior decades search term popularity from google,there has been a gradual increase in the search popularity of s

177、ustainable tourism along with a sudden upswing in the relevance of overtourism coinciding with this summers protests.Increased awareness by businesses is one of the first steps in helping to move toward a more sustainable and responsible tourism model.In terms of opportunities,at a global level,busi

178、ness travel including bleisure,leisure events and tourism infrastructure developments were again considered the main opportunities for tourism growth.However,for European respondents,there continues to be a strong opportunity for improved connectivity/air routes and more long-haul international visi

179、tors.Many transatlantic routes were added this summer,with more to come next year.It is likely this will remain a key European opportunity for tourism going into next year,while demand from Asia-Pacific continues to improve.37%39%50%62%Staffing issuesCost of flightsIncreasing cost of businessCost of

180、 accommodationQ1 2024Q2 2024Q3 2024%reportedin top risksSource:Tourism Economics25 5.European travel sentiment tracker E-Reputation trends on travel in Europe E-Reputation data,gathered from the TRAVELSAT Sentiment Index by MMGY TCI Research,utilises social listening to assess destinations online pe

181、rception.Information shared by differing media,consumers,companies etc.,on websites,forums,blogs&social networks is used.Net sentiment scores,ranging from-100 to+100,measure the balance between positive and negative sentiments to evaluate destination favourability.Value for Money and Sustainable Tra

182、vel ratings are measured through sentiment scores derived from written reviews from 45 sources(TripAdvisor,Google Reviews,Booking),utilising advanced sentiment analysis technology to detect positive and negative sentiments towards specific concepts or topics,with ratings,ranging from 0 to 10.For a f

183、urther explanation of these methodologies please see Appendix 2.Throughout the third quarter of 2024,the polarity of online social conversations regarding European travel stood at an average of 42 points.Europes score saw a drop in July,placing it in third place,behind Asia Pacific and The Middle Ea

184、st.Stories on the effects of climate change throughout Europe,as well as protests and actions against mass tourism brought its score down.However,its score recuperated quickly in August and September,placing Europe in first place during both months.Overall,Europe took the leading spot in global e-re

185、putation scores in Q3 of 2024,holding at least 5 points more than all other world regions.Net sentiment score per world region,P12M Several positive drivers of reputation on European travel supported its progressive increase in polarity throughout the third quarter.With the warm summer season making

186、 a large portion of the quarter,water activities was a dominant theme.Stories showcased several Mediterranean destinations,particularly secret beaches in Croatia and Greece,some of which had celebrity visits like football star Lamine Yamal.Inland bodies of water also surfaced in online stories,with

187、destinations like Lake Como in Italy described as exceptional areas for boating and swimming.A more adventurous side of tourism complemented these water-based activities,with the opportunity to go whale-watching from Reykjavk presented through a vloggers post.Finally,groups of friends,couples,and fa

188、milies alike were shown enjoying the exhilarating water slides at Hof van Saksen Waterpark in The Netherlands.A second prominent theme was that of events-based travel.Both Notting Hill Carnival in London and Zurichs Street Parade attracted global audiences,with travellers from diverse cultural backg

189、rounds coming together for colourful parades,eclectic music,and all-night festivities.In particular,the vibrant energy and sense of community at these large-scale events was highly promoted.Markedly,the Olympics in Paris were not absent from this theme,with some content showing how a family from the

190、 United States packed for their trip,and where they stayed.-100102030405060EuropeAmericasAfricaMiddle EastAsia PacificQ32024Europe Q3 2024 average=42Source:MMGY TCI Research26 By September,as autumn set in,comforting travel and wellness tourism came to the forefront.Mooska Farm in Estonia drew atten

191、tion due to its traditional smoke saunas,offering a peaceful,nature-immersed retreat.Featuring a more unique and innovative way to enjoy a sauna,an article spoke about two Finnish brothers who introduced the concept of a“flying sauna.The idea involves a hot air balloon equipped with a sauna built in

192、to its basket,offering a one-of-a-kind relaxation experience in the skies of Kokkola.A last story within this theme spoke of the rising trend of wellness retreats aimed at easing the process of menopause.Lanserhof Health Resort in Germany offers tailored therapies including personalised training and

193、 nutrition programmes,yet retreats in Spain,Austria,Italy,and Denmark are also beginning to offer these specialised services.Negative drivers throughout the third quarter were firstly shaped by concerns around climate change and the sustainability of tourism.Online articles spoke about how Mediterra

194、nean destinations like Greece,Croatia,and Albania experienced extreme heatwaves,with temperatures exceeding 40C.These heatwaves led to safety measures such as the closure of popular tourist sites like the Acropolis in Athens during the hottest parts of the day.In close connection,other online articl

195、es questioned the sustainability of tourism and its ability to reduce its impact on the environment given that air traffic at European airports reached the levels seen prior to the COVID-19 pandemic in the first half of the year.Common to the summer season,overtourism was also a highly mentioned top

196、ic online,with the protests against mass tourism in Barcelona garnering a high degree of media coverage in July.Residents voiced frustrations over the strain excessive tourism placed on local infrastructure and the environment,with Venice and Mallorca also frequently mentioned as struggling to manag

197、e the influx of visitors.A final subject had to do with a perceived increment in travel hurdles to either enter or travel within Europe.In the case of the former,the upcoming implementation of the ETIAS travel authorisation system in 2025 caused concern in online articles,particularly among non-EU t

198、ravellers.British visitors were worried that being questioned about travel details would create unnecessary complications,discouraging future trips to Europe.Finally,online articles presented unease over the border controls that Germany has put in place and what these imply for the freedom of moveme

199、nt in the Schengen area.Focus on value for money from visitors written reviews Value for Money measures guests perception of the worth or quality an experience has in relation to its cost.The Value for Money sentiment score of European Accommodations and Attractions decreased to 8.19 in the third qu

200、arter of 2024(-0.16 points vs.Q2 of 2024).Broken down by verticals,the score for Accommodations decreased to 7.70(-0.20 points vs.Q2 of 2024),while for Attractions it decreased slightly to 8.74(-0.14 points vs.Q2 of 2024).Value for money sentiment scores per vertical 7,708,745,05,56,06,57,07,58,08,5

201、9,0AccommodationsAttractionsSource:MMGY TCI Research-0.20 vs.Q2 2024-0.14 vs.Q2 2024Overall value for money score Q3 8.19-0.16 vs.Q2 2024 27 The five destinations receiving the most praise in terms of Value for Money in guests written reviews were San Marino,Serbia,Latvia,Czechia,and Cyprus.Online s

202、tories on these destinations suggest that they offer affordable dining,attractions,accommodations,or public transport.For example,San Marino holds several budget-friendly trattorias,and entrance fees to various attractions,including historical sites and museums5.Regarding Serbia,travel bloggers foun

203、d that visiting Belgrade during August was very affordable,in particular when considering the cost of food6.Destinations receiving the highest sentiment scores on the topic of value for money during Q3 2024 Focus on sustainable travel from visitors written reviews Sustainable Travel measures guests

204、perception of environmentally and socially friendly practices taken by operators.The Sustainable Travel sentiment score of European Accommodations and Attractions rose to 7.84 in the third quarter of 2024(+0.09 points vs.Q2 of 2024).Broken down by verticals,the score for Accommodations increased to

205、7.79(+0.11 vs.Q2 2024),while that of Attractions decreased to 8.40(-0.14 vs.Q2 of 2024).Sustainable travel sentiment scores per vertical 5 Is San Marino Expensive to Visit?A Comprehensive Guide for Travellers.September 20th,2024.https:/ Informe presupuestario de agosto de 2024(Belgrado,Serbia).Septe

206、mber 2nd,2024.https:/ MarinoSource:MMGY TCI Research7,798,405,05,56,06,57,07,58,08,59,0AccommodationsAttractionsSource:MMGY TCI Research+0.11 vs.Q2 2024-0.14 vs.Q2 2024Overall sustainable travel score Q3 7.84+0.09 vs.Q2 2024 28 In terms of guests written reviews on Sustainable Travel,Sweden,Slovenia

207、,Austria,Germany,and Finland received the most positive comments.All five destinations are known to uphold some of the highest sustainability and environmental standards globally.Separate to the scores from written reviews,an online story on Sweden from the second quarter of 2024 presented an award-

208、winning coffee roastery known for its commitment to sustainability as part of a multi-day Stockholm itinerary,while Slovenia was praised for its design of a cycling route that combines green movement with stops at gourmet establishments.Stanglwirt in Austria was spoken of highly in an online travel

209、blog for being a gorgeous resort that combines organically farmed food alongside wellness and fitness.Finally,the Hamburger Falkenstein golf course was spoken highly of in a list of the top golf courses in Germany due to its organically maintained fields,while Finlands peaceful waterways were recomm

210、ended for those who enjoy gentle canoe tours.Destinations receiving the highest sentiment scores on the topic of sustainable travel during Q3 2024 8,388,388,448,458,588,258,308,358,408,458,508,558,60LuxembourgFinlandSwedenThe NetherlandsSloveniaSource:MMGY TCI Research29 6.Key source market performa

211、nce Trends discussed in this section relate to the period January to August 2024,although actual coverage varies by destination.Further detailed monthly data for origin and destination,including absolute values,can be obtained from TourMIS(http:/tourmis.info).Key intra-European source markets While

212、there remain differences between major European source markets,some of these are linked to the seasonality in demand,with some destinations commonly outperforming others in the summer period e.g.Southern European destinations.However,a notable change relative to the last quarterly report has been th

213、e shift away from Trkiye towards competitor Mediterranean destinations such as Greece,as inflation has eroded affordability benefits without the counter balance of a dramatic devaluation of the Turkish lira.Countries bordering Ukraine or in the Baltic sub-region remain very constrained in their reco

214、veries.German visits and overnights to select destinations(%change on 2019)-50-40-30-20-1001020304050CyprusSerbiaGreeceSloveniaTrkiyeNetherlandsLuxembourgBelgiumNorwayMaltaCzechiaDenmarkPortugalMontenegroCroatiaSpainFinlandSwedenAustriaHungaryIcelandSwitzerlandMonacoBulgariaPolandSlovakiaRomaniaLith

215、uaniaEstoniaLatviaArrivalsNightsSource:TourMIS*date varies(Jan-Aug)by destination2024year-to-date*,%change relative to 2019 North America,in particular the US remains one of the most important non-European source markets for many European destinations.This is even after a record number of arrivals o

216、ver summer 2023 and despite a slightly less favourable exchange rate against the euro.Smaller destinations such as Serbia and Montenegro remain popular among both European and Non-European source markets,a trend that has been present over the last few quarters.Some of this is the consumer trend of d

217、iscovering new destinations but is also a result of the continued geopolitical tensions in Europe.The popularity of Trkiye as a destination has fallen slightly on last quarter across a number of source markets as it has lost some of its competitive advantage on the cost front.Southern and Mediterran

218、ean destinations have remained popular choices this summer.Surveys earlier in the year pointed towards concerns over weather conditions such as heatwaves,but they have not had a material impact on the recovery or growth in these holiday hotspots.Destinations that are furthest from recovery to 2019 l

219、evels remain largely concentrated in Eastern Europe and those perceived to be in proximity to the war in Ukraine.The appetite of Chinese and Japanese tourists for European travel is still muted.A handful of smaller markets are seeing a small absolute rise in arrivals,but many are still between 50-80

220、%below 2019 levels.30 Cyprus saw the strongest growth in arrivals from Germany,up 47.1%on 2019.It remains to be seen whether the current trajectory will be seriously affected by the proximity of Israel,Gaza,Lebanon and the conflict in that region.Cyprus was followed by the smaller destination(in vol

221、ume terms)of Serbia(24.4%)and by Greece(34.1%).However,data for Greece is only up to July,so the typical peak month has still not fed through into the data.Despite a strong summer performance so far,the German Travel Association(DRV)has expressed concerns about Greeces new tourism measures,which inc

222、lude increased fees for hoteliers and cruise passengers,fearing that they may deter German tourists.Some very important destinations have reached 2019 levels,at least in terms of German arrivals.Notable among these are Spain up 4.5%on 2019 but slightly down on the previous quarter.In 2019,there were

223、 more than 52 million German tourist arrivals to Spain.Trkiye remains a popular choice for German tourists compared to 2019 with arrivals ahead by 29.6%.This is despite tourists facing significantly higher prices for their summer holidays compared to the previous year.Germany has historically been o

224、ne of the largest source markets for Trkiye,so it is possible that German tourists have been less price sensitive than those from other countries.French visits and overnights to select destinations(%change on 2019)Of 31 reporting countries,16 saw growth in at least one metric from France.Cyprus for

225、which France has become a fast-growing source market for was way ahead of other reporting destinations,recording growth in French arrivals of over 217.2%when compared to 2019.It remains unclear whether such strong growth will be dampened by conflict in the Middle East.Cyprus has said that it is prep

226、ared to act as an evacuation centre for third party nationals and Lebanese citizens seeking protection.Other Mediterranean destinations such as Greece(30.9%)and Malta(26.9%)also recorded strong growth in arrivals.Denmark was the second strongest performer,registering growth in nights from France of

227、39.5%.Denmark may be benefitting from the emerging trend of summer coolcations,attracting visitors from France and Southern Europe.This trend is evident in recent survey data but is still not fully apparent in destination performance data.In contrast,the ongoing conflict in Ukraine continued to impa

228、ct French visits to the Baltic States and to countries in Central Europe which border Ukraine,such as Poland(-17.2%),Bulgaria(-19.2%)and Romania(-24.4%).Trkiye also slipped down the rankings for French visitors,but still recorded an increase of 20.8%when compared to the same period in 2019.Arrivals

229、from France to Germany continue to be lower than in 2019(down 5%).Increased affordable transport infrastructure such as the high speed train between Paris and Berlin to be launched this winter may help address this.However,France will also be affected by the threatened strike by EasyJet employees.-4

230、0-200204060CyprusDenmarkSloveniaSerbiaGreeceMaltaNetherlandsTrkiyeFinlandSwitzerlandNorwayIcelandSpainSwedenMontenegroIreland RepPortugalMonacoBelgiumLuxembourgGermanyAustriaCroatiaCzechiaHungaryPolandBulgariaRomaniaLithuaniaEstoniaSlovakiaLatviaArrivalsNightsSource:TourMIS*date varies(Jan-Aug)by de

231、stination2024year-to-date*,%change relative to 2019Cyprus,217.2%(A)31 Italian visits and overnights to select destinations(%change on 2019)Iceland continues to record one of the fastest growth in Italian arrivals relative to 2019,albeit from a small base,with Italian visitors up 78.7%,alongside Trki

232、ye at 80.5%.Cooler destinations such as Finland have tended to slip in the rankings,replaced by Mediterranean summer destinations such as Malta(54.5%)and Cyprus(46.2%)during the summer months.Tourists from Italy are increasingly seek beach resort locations in other Mediterranean destinations.This ha

233、s been driven by the significant increase in the price of this type of holiday in Italy.According to a study undertaken by Italian consumer protection agencies,the cost of an Italian holiday in the country has risen by some 15-20%once transportation,accommodation and food are included.Potential tour

234、ism tax hikes,which are being considered,could exacerbate that situation.However,some sizeable destinations continue to record visitation from Italy well down on 2019.Notable among these is Germany,which remains 17.4%down on 2019 arrivals levels,only marginally improved from last quarter.British vis

235、its and overnights to select destinations(%change on 2019)Out of 31 reporting destinations,16 reported growth in at least one metric from the UK.However,some of these such as Switzerland and Cyprus were very marginal,notably for arrivals.Spain saw a modest increase in UK arrivals while also witnessi

236、ng a drop in nights,implying a slight decrease in the average length of stay relative to 2019.The UK has been the source of some degree of stagnation in tourism growth in Spain,alongside the domestic market.-60-40-200204060TrkiyeIcelandMaltaCyprusSerbiaFinlandDenmarkNorwaySpainPortugalSwedenNetherla

237、ndsHungaryCzechiaRomaniaBulgariaEstoniaMonacoSwitzerlandItalyBelgiumPolandAustriaSlovakiaSloveniaGermanyLuxembourgLatviaCroatiaLithuaniaMontenegroArrivalsNightsSource:TourMIS*date varies(Jan-Aug)by destination2024year-to-date*,%change year relative to 2019Trkiye,80.5%(A)Iceland,78.5%(A)-40-30-20-100

238、1020304050TrkiyeMontenegroSerbiaGreeceDenmarkPortugalNorwayPolandMaltaCzechiaSloveniaRomaniaCyprusSwitzerlandSpainLithuaniaGermanyBelgiumEstoniaFinlandAustriaHungaryLuxembourgCroatiaIcelandNetherlandsLatviaBulgariaMonacoSwedenSlovakiaArrivalsNightsSource:TourMIS*date varies(Jan-Aug)by destination202

239、4year-to-date*,%change relative to 2019 levelsTrkiye,67.7%(A)32 Spain has seen considerable protests against tourists over the summer and these have likely contributed to some of the slowdown,however they did not completely deter tourists.Montenegro continued to register one of the strongest growth

240、in percentage terms relative to 2019 for both arrivals(45.5%)and nights(30.8%)from a small base-while Greece also reported a strong outturn with growth in arrivals at 29.9%and is a more significant destination country in volume terms.The relative popularity of both markets is likely driven by a sear

241、ch for value for money among many British travellers.Despite inflation rising earlier in the year in Trkiye,it still continues to record growth in British arrivals relative to 2019,up 67.7%.Although the UK recovery in outbound tourism continues to lag behind some other European source markets,forwar

242、d-looking data from Q3 2024 suggests that bookings have been strong.This is despite a downturn in consumer sentiment overall.GfKs Consumer Confidence Barometer reported a drop in how consumers feel about their personal finances and the wider economy since the end of August amid the new governments w

243、arning of a painful budget.In contrast,travel agents and tour operators boasted of fabulous September sales especially in the cruise sector.Dutch visits and overnights to select destinations(%change on 2019)All but five reporting destinations registered growth in at least one metric from the Netherl

244、ands.Lithuania continues to record the strongest increase in Dutch visitors(130.4%).Growth in arrivals to Iceland from the Netherlands remains strong at 62.1%,but it is starting to moderate,down from triple-digit growth last quarter.Spain,typically a large destination for Dutch tourists reported a r

245、obust increase in Dutch visitors(28.9%)and nights spent there(12%).The launch of a night train from Amsterdam to Barcelona by European Sleeper has been delayed until 2026 as a result of difficulties in negotiations with French railway network manager,SNCF Rseau,and a shortage of train carriages.Coun

246、tries which continue to lag in the recovery from 2019 remain concentrated in Central Europe and the Baltic States.Hungary has left this group,recording an overall decline in nights from the Netherlands,and reporting a 13.8%increase in arrivals relative to 2019.-50-30-1010305070LithuaniaIcelandSerbia

247、MaltaSpainPolandDenmarkPortugalFinlandCyprusBelgiumSwitzerlandLuxembourgTrkiyeHungaryNorwaySloveniaBulgariaSwedenCroatiaAustriaGermanyMonacoRomaniaCzechiaMontenegroSlovakiaEstoniaLatviaArrivalsNightsSource:TourMIS*date varies(Jan-Aug)by destination2024year-to-date*,%change relative to 2019 levelsLit

248、huania,130.4%(A),70.1%(N)33 Non-European source markets United States visits and overnights to select destinations(%change on 2019)Countries with either arrivals or nights from the United States remaining below 2019 continue to be concentrated in the eastern half of the continent,including Hungary,B

249、ulgaria and Romania,with arrivals down 23.5%,24.8%and 12.6%respectively.This is despite the US being the strongest performing of the key non-European source markets for a second consecutive summer following the pandemic.Alongside Trkiye(137.4%),Portugal was the reporting destination with the highest

250、 growth in American visitors with arrivals more than double 2019 levels(up 102.1%).Data from the National Statistics Institute of Portugal(INE)highlights the impressive growth of American tourism to Portugal over the last two years in particular.Lithuania and Latvia are also reporting double-digit g

251、rowth in both metrics the current outlook may be affected by US military involvement in Eastern Europe at present.However,European destinations such as Spain and Germany,which are more significant in volume terms,have reported arrivals up 28.4%and 1.9%respectively this year so far on an annual growt

252、h basis which illustrates continued strong growth opportunities from the US for the region.Aside from these countries,nearly half of the reporting destinations saw growth in American tourism of at least 30%on one of the metrics.Chinese visits and overnights to select destinations(%change on 2019)-20

253、020406080100TrkiyePortugalLithuaniaMontenegroSerbiaPolandSwitzerlandSwedenMaltaFinlandIcelandSpainGreeceLatviaDenmarkLuxembourgNorwaySloveniaCroatiaMonacoAustriaBelgiumCyprusGermanyEstoniaSlovakiaCzechiaRomaniaHungaryBulgariaArrivalsNightsSource:TourMIS*date varies(Jan-Aug)by destination2024year-to-

254、date*,%change relative to 2019 levelsTrkiye,137.4%(A)Portugal,102.1%(A)Hungary,-23.6%(A)Bulgaria,-24.8%(N)-90-70-50-30-1010305070SerbiaSpainHungaryTrkiyeRomaniaMaltaMontenegroPortugalIcelandGermanyPolandBelgiumSloveniaMonacoSwitzerlandCroatiaDenmarkEstoniaAustriaLatviaSlovakiaFinlandNorwayLithuaniaS

255、wedenCzechiaArrivalsNightsSource:TourMIS*date varies(Jan-Aug)by destination2024 year-to-date*,%change relative to 201934 The recovery in Chinese outbound tourism to Europe continues to be slower than anticipated.With one exception,every reporting destination country is registering a decline in Chine

256、se tourism activity relative to 2019.The one exception is Serbia,where the recovery in nights(up 52.9%on 2019)is especially notable.China and Serbia continue to strengthen their relationship both economically and in the tourism sphere.But at present,Serbia makes up only a relatively modest share of

257、total outbound travel from China to Europe.Eight destinations remain more than 50%down on 2019 levels,although these tend to be relatively small countries for Chinese tourism such as Lithuania and Slovakia.However,there are some positive trends.A survey by China Trading Desk estimates that 128 milli

258、on Chinese travellers will venture abroad in 2024.Key trends include 73.1%of travellers booking trips last-minute,especially Gen Z,who prioritise unique experiences and rely on social media for travel inspiration.Affluent travellers from Tier 1 cities are prioritising luxury travel,with nearly half

259、expecting to spend more than$3,500 per trip.Japanese visits and overnights to select destinations(%change on 2019)Across the reporting destinations,the appetite for travel to Europe by Japanese tourists remains weak relative to 2019.The only exceptions to this continue to be Serbia,Trkiye and Monten

260、egro and even among these,Serbia while registering growth in nights(39.8%),saw a fall in arrivals from Japan of 21.3%.Only Montenegro saw growth in both measures,but both countries are only relatively minor destinations for Japanese visitors,and to illustrate this,growth in arrivals relative to 2019

261、 only equates to an additional 95 tourist arrivals(in absolute terms)to Montenegro from Japan.All other reporting countries recorded falls varying from 37.1%(Spain nights)to 81.7%(Lithuania arrivals)relative to 2019 levels.The situation has been hampered by the weak yen,which has made Europe a prici

262、er destination for Japanese visitors.In contrast,inbound tourism to Japan has been booming on the back of the currency outlook,making it the countrys second-largest export after cars,according to Oxford Economics.Despite the weak yen and the current tendency for Japanese visitors to target nearby As

263、ian destinations,there are signs of recovery.In year-on-year terms,almost all reporting destinations are seeing an annual rise in the number of Japanese tourists,including destinations across Eastern Europe,some of which remain well below 2019 levels.-100-80-60-40-200204060SerbiaTrkiyeMontenegroSpai

264、nFinlandIcelandSwitzerlandGermanyRomaniaBelgiumPortugalHungaryMonacoDenmarkSlovakiaCzechiaAustriaSloveniaSwedenNorwayCroatiaPolandEstoniaLatviaLithuaniaArrivalsNightsSource:TourMIS*date varies(Jan-Aug)by destination2024year-to-date*,%change relative to 201935 Indian visits and overnights to select d

265、estinations(%change on 2019)In contrast to other non-European source markets across the Asia Pacific region the outlook across reporting destinations for India is more varied and overall closer to a full recovery.This quarter,22 destinations reported on tourism from India.Fourteen of these continue

266、to register lower overall levels of tourism activity relative to 2019,two present a mixed outlook across arrivals and nights and five show growth in both tourism metrics.As has been the case in many recent quarterly reports,Montenegro and Serbia continue to post triple-digit growth in most metrics l

267、argely as a result of different visa regulations and both arrivals and nights increasing from a small base.Aside from these,Portugal showed the highest percentage growth in both arrivals(47.4%)and nights(56.3%)from India relative to 2019.Data to June will show the first impacts of changes to the cou

268、ntrys visa regulations,which now require citizens of many countries to hold a work permit before entering.Both Poland and Slovakia also saw increases in Indian tourism relative to 2019 levels.In the case of Poland,this growth may be strengthened by Indian Prime Minister Modis visit to Warsaw in Augu

269、st.In addition,India is also looking at a joint co-operation agreement with Spain to boost tourism between the two countries,providing some potential upside to the current recovery of 8.8%in arrivals.Canadian visits and overnights to select destinations(%change on 2019)Only seven of the reporting co

270、untries recorded no growth in either tourism metric from Canada which is an improvement on last quarter.Portugal,along with Trkiye continued to demonstrate the strongest growth in Canadian arrivals(90%)relative to 2019,but over the summer,the recovery in nights(74.4%)has caught up.This-80-60-40-2002

271、0406080100MontenegroSerbiaPortugalTrkiyePolandMonacoSlovakiaIcelandSpainFinlandCroatiaRomaniaGermanyAustriaBelgiumNorwaySwitzerlandCzechiaDenmarkHungaryLatviaSwedenArrivalsNightsSource:TourMIS*date varies(Jan-Aug)by destination2024year-to-date*,%change relative to 2019Montenegro,203.9%(A),216.5%(N)S

272、erbia,214.9%(N)-60-40-20020406080100TrkiyeLatviaPortugalSerbiaSpainNorwayPolandMontenegroMonacoSwedenIcelandSwitzerlandAustriaDenmarkSloveniaCzechiaBelgiumFinlandGermanyCroatiaHungaryRomaniaCyprusSlovakiaLithuaniaArrivalsNightsSource:TourMIS*date varies(Jan-Aug)by destination2024 year-to-date*,%chan

273、ge relative to 201936 was followed by Latvia,which once again showed an increase in nights but a decrease in visits from Canada,suggesting a stronger average length of stay relative to 2019 than other reporting destinations currently back in growth territory.Spain,which has a close bilateral relatio

274、nship with Canada,had a strong summer so far,reporting growth in arrivals at 44.4%and nights at a stronger 59.1%.Trkiye registered an increase in Canadian arrivals of 98.9%based on data for the entire summer.The strong recovery is supported by Turkish Airlines which has extended its stopover program

275、me for Canadian travellers,including an extra complimentary nights accommodation.A relatively small group of reporting destinations still shows lower levels of tourism activity from Canada than in 2019 but this group includes Germany with arrivals down-9.1%and nights-5.4%and Croatia,reporting declin

276、es of-11.1%and-5.7%in arrivals and nights respectively.In the near term,there is likely to be some impact on Canadian outbound travel from industrial action by Air Canada pilots.Australian visits and overnights to select destinations(%change on 2019)More than half of destinations reported Australian

277、 arrivals and/or nights down on 2019 levels,but even those with the most to recover have seen some improvement,albeit small,over the last few months.While Serbia continued to record the highest percentage increase in nights from Australia,Spain,one of the most popular destinations for Australian vis

278、itors,reported growth of 59.5%in arrivals on 2019.This marks a significant improvement on last quarter,suggesting Australians have been returning to Spain in great numbers this summer.Other countries along the Mediterranean coast also reported strong growth in Australian visitors including Portugal(

279、29.8%),Montenegro(16.8%),Malta(15.7%)and Trkiye(63.0%).However,as with other source markets,Trkiyes growth in Australian visitors was notably less than in the previous quarter,possibly due to rising costs which may be more significant for long-haul travellers who incur higher air fares.In contrast,o

280、ther typically popular destinations such as Croatia and Germany are still struggling to move back into growth territory with arrivals down-13.4%and-6.5%and nights down-12.8%and-7.6%respectively.Although there seems to be a clear preference among Australians for Southern Mediterranean holidays,especi

281、ally as summer continues,Croatia appears to be an exception to this.Most destinations lagging in recovery are typically cooler destinations and suggests the trend of coolcations is not a priority for Australian tourists as they are used to high temperatures and are likely to seek hotter countries du

282、ring their autumn/winter season.-50-40-30-20-1001020304050SerbiaTrkiyeSpainMontenegroPortugalMaltaSwitzerlandFinlandMonacoCyprusDenmarkSloveniaHungaryIcelandAustriaNorwayBelgiumGermanyCzechiaPolandCroatiaSwedenRomaniaLatviaLithuaniaEstoniaSlovakiaArrivalsNightsSource:TourMIS*date varies(Jan-Aug)by d

283、estination2024 year-to-date*,%change relative to 2019Trkiye,63.0%(A)Serbia,71.2%(N)Spain 59.5%(A)37 Brazilian visits and overnights to select destinations(%change on 2019)Nearly half of the reporting destinations recorded no growth in either arrivals or nights this year so far.This reflects a signif

284、icantly weaker outlook than last quarter.It is possible that many Brazilian tourists decided to visit France around the Olympic period.There is no reported French arrivals data yet for this period,but reports suggest Paris welcomed significantly more tourists from Brazil for the games.A few destinat

285、ions continue to report significant growth,such as nights spent in Serbia(136%)and arrivals to Latvia(85.5%),but volumes are typically rising from a small base.Even among these,growth rates have started to soften.While some of the destinations reporting growth in neither metric saw only marginal dec

286、lines relative to 2019,more significant destinations in terms of volumes such as Germany and Portugal continued to record losses compared to 2019 for both arrivals and nights.The slightly more negative picture presented by Brazil this quarter may reflect changes to consumer sentiment which were appa

287、rent during Q2 of 2024 but which have subsequently been reversed.The latest Long-Haul Travel Barometer(LHTB)report published by the European Travel Commission(ETC)suggests that Brazilians are among the keenest long-haul travellers to visit Europe.-30-20-10010203040506070SerbiaIcelandMontenegroRomani

288、aSwitzerlandMonacoTrkiyeFinlandSpainEstoniaSloveniaHungaryCroatiaDenmarkNorwayBelgiumLithuaniaCzechiaSwedenAustriaLatviaPortugalPolandGermanySlovakiaArrivalsNightsSource:TourMIS*date varies(Jan-Aug)by destination2024year-to-date*,%change relative to 2019Serbia,136%(N)38 7.Origin market share analysi

289、s Based on Tourism Economics Global Travel Service(GTS)model,the following charts and analysis show Europes evolving market position in absolute and percentage terms for selected source markets.Data in these charts and tables relate to reported arrivals in all destinations as a comparable measure of

290、 outbound travel for the calculation of market share.For example,US outbound figures featured in the analysis are larger than reported departures in national statistics as long-haul trips often involve travel to multiple destinations.In 2014,US data reporting shows 11.9 million departures to Europe,

291、while the sum of European arrivals from the US was 23.4 million.Thus,each US trip to Europe involved a visit to two destinations on average.The geographies of Europe are defined as follows:Northern Europe is Denmark,Finland,Iceland,Ireland,Norway,Sweden,and the UK;Western Europe is Austria,Belgium,F

292、rance,Germany,Luxembourg,Netherlands,and Switzerland;Southern/Mediterranean Europe is Albania,Bosnia-Herzegovina,Croatia,Cyprus,North Macedonia,Greece,Italy,Malta,Montenegro,Portugal,Serbia,Slovenia,Spain,and Trkiye;Central/Eastern Europe is Armenia,Azerbaijan,Belarus,Bulgaria,Czechia,Estonia,Georgi

293、a,Hungary,Kazakhstan,Kyrgyzstan,Latvia,Lithuania,Moldova,Poland,Romania,Russian Federation,Slovakia,and Ukraine.39 United States market share summary United States long-haul*outbound travel Europes share of American market Total outbound travel124,552-6.5%36.9%-3.7%-Long haul76,79361.7%6.8%39.3%62.7

294、%6.5%60.1%Short haul47,75938.3%5.9%33.1%37.3%-0.4%39.9%Travel to Europe37,60230.2%5.4%30.2%28.7%10.8%28.3%European Union5,8864.7%45.5%551.6%22.5%-74.2%19.0%Northern Europe10,0978.1%3.3%17.9%7.0%14.9%7.3%Western Europe11,9409.6%4.6%25.5%8.8%5.3%9.4%Southern Europe12,3909.9%6.0%33.8%9.7%21.8%8.5%Centr

295、al/Eastern Europe3,1742.5%11.6%72.7%3.2%-12.9%3.0%*Shows cumulative change over the relevant time period indicated.2018-23 includes COVID-19 pandemic related declines.*Shares are expressed as%of total outbound travelSource:Tourism Economics000sShare*Annual averageCumulative growth*Share 2028*Cumulat

296、ive growth*Share 2018*2023Growth(2023-28)Growth(2018-23)010.00020.00030.00040.00050.00060.00070.00080.00090.00020142015201620172018201920202021202220232024Rest of Long HaulCentral/Eastern EuropeSouthern EuropeWestern Europe*Longhaul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside North AmericaSo

297、urce:Tourism EconomicsVisits,000s201320152017201920212023202520270%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%Northern EuropeWestern EuropeSouthern EuropeCentral/Eastern Europe*Longhaul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside North AmericaSource:Tourism Economics%share of long-haul*market40 Canada market sh

298、are summary Canada long-haul*outbound travel Europes share of Canadian market Total outbound travel37,377-5.6%31.0%-3.6%-Long haul14,58339.0%7.5%43.8%42.8%-3.7%39.0%Short haul22,79461.0%4.2%22.9%57.2%-3.6%61.0%Travel to Europe6,61017.7%4.4%24.0%16.7%2.7%16.6%European Union1,0002.7%49.2%638.2%15.1%-7

299、8.7%12.1%Northern Europe1,5734.2%1.9%10.0%3.5%14.1%3.6%Western Europe2,1425.7%2.4%12.6%4.9%6.4%5.2%Southern Europe2,7547.4%6.8%38.9%7.8%-3.5%7.4%Central/Eastern Europe1400.4%10.2%62.4%0.5%-25.6%0.5%*Shows cumulative change over the relevant time period indicated.2018-23 includes COVID-19 pandemic re

300、lated declines.*Shares are expressed as%of total outbound travelSource:Tourism EconomicsGrowth(2018-23)2023Growth(2023-28)Share 2018*000sShare*Annual averageCumulative growth*Share 2028*Cumulative growth*02.0004.0006.0008.00010.00012.00014.00016.00018.00020142015201620172018201920202021202220232024R

301、est of Long HaulCentral/Eastern EuropeSouthern EuropeWestern Europe*Longhaul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside North AmericaSource:Tourism EconomicsVisits,000s201320152017201920212023202520270%5%10%15%20%25%Northern EuropeWestern EuropeSouthern EuropeCentral/Eastern Europe*Longhaul

302、 defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside North AmericaSource:Tourism Economics%share of long-haul*market41 Mexico market share summary Mexico long-haul*outbound travel Europes share of Mexican market Total outbound travel18,478-8.4%49.4%-17.3%-Long haul3,43118.6%7.8%45.4%18.1%-3.1%15.9%S

303、hort haul15,04781.4%8.5%50.3%81.9%-19.9%84.1%Travel to Europe2,10411.4%4.7%25.9%9.6%6.2%8.9%European Union4162.3%38.9%417.7%7.8%-67.6%5.7%Northern Europe1921.0%2.8%14.6%0.8%21.3%0.7%Western Europe6723.6%6.9%39.6%3.4%-26.6%4.1%Southern Europe1,0995.9%3.3%17.9%4.7%61.3%3.1%Central/Eastern Europe1410.8

304、%6.7%38.1%0.7%-37.5%1.0%*Shows cumulative change over the relevant time period indicated.2018-23 includes COVID-19 pandemic related declines.*Shares are expressed as%of total outbound travelSource:Tourism EconomicsGrowth(2018-23)2023Growth(2023-28)000sShare*Annual averageCumulative growth*Share 2028

305、*Cumulative growth*Share 2018*05001.0001.5002.0002.5003.0003.5004.0004.50020142015201620172018201920202021202220232024Rest of Long HaulCentral/Eastern EuropeSouthern EuropeWestern Europe*Longhaul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside North AmericaSource:Tourism EconomicsVisits,000s42 A

306、rgentina market share summary Argentina Long-Haul*Outbound Travel 201320152017201920212023202520270%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%Northern EuropeWestern EuropeSouthern EuropeCentral/Eastern Europe*Longhaul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside North AmericaSource:Tourism Economics%share of lo

307、ng-haul*marketTotal outbound travel8,858-7.1%41.1%-31.5%-Long haul2,46727.9%10.8%66.7%32.9%-39.3%31.5%Short haul6,39172.1%5.6%31.2%67.1%-27.9%68.5%Travel to Europe1,04611.8%8.8%52.4%12.7%-39.2%13.3%European Union2903.3%28.6%251.1%8.2%-69.0%7.2%Northern Europe1401.6%3.1%16.6%1.3%-16.2%1.3%Western Eur

308、ope500.6%13.2%86.0%0.7%-33.0%0.6%Southern Europe7658.6%9.3%55.9%9.5%-39.8%9.8%Central/Eastern Europe901.0%9.8%59.6%1.2%-56.3%1.6%*Shows cumulative change over the relevant time period indicated.2018-23 includes COVID-19 pandemic related declines.*Shares are expressed as%of total outbound travelSourc

309、e:Tourism EconomicsShare 2018*2023Growth(2023-28)Growth(2018-23)000sShare*Annual averageCumulative growth*Share 2028*Cumulative growth*05001.0001.5002.0002.5003.0003.5004.0004.50020142015201620172018201920202021202220232024Rest of Long HaulCentral/Eastern EuropeSouthern EuropeWestern Europe*Longhaul

310、 defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside South AmericaSource:Tourism EconomicsVisits,000s43 Europes share of Argentinian market Brazil market share summary Brazil long-haul*outbound travel 201320152017201920212023202520270%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%Northern EuropeWestern EuropeSouthern Euro

311、peCentral/Eastern Europe*Longhaul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside South AmericaSource:Tourism Economics%share of long-haul*marketTotal outbound travel9,766-8.7%51.5%-16.6%-Long haul6,64768.1%10.1%61.5%72.6%-22.4%73.2%Short haul3,11931.9%5.4%30.0%27.4%-0.6%26.8%Travel to Europe3,8

312、7039.6%9.0%53.7%40.2%-16.5%39.6%European Union1,07111.0%31.6%294.1%28.5%-70.0%30.5%Northern Europe3533.6%3.5%18.9%2.8%17.1%2.6%Western Europe1,09811.2%9.4%56.4%11.6%-26.8%12.8%Southern Europe2,10621.6%9.3%55.7%22.2%-12.1%20.5%Central/Eastern Europe3133.2%11.2%70.0%3.6%-28.8%3.8%*Shows cumulative cha

313、nge over the relevant time period indicated.2018-23 includes COVID-19 pandemic related declines.*Shares are expressed as%of total outbound travelSource:Tourism EconomicsGrowth(2018-23)2023Growth(2023-28)000sShare*Annual averageCumulative growth*Share 2028*Cumulative growth*Share 2018*01.0002.0003.00

314、04.0005.0006.0007.0008.0009.00010.00020142015201620172018201920202021202220232024Rest of Long HaulCentral/Eastern EuropeSouthern EuropeWestern Europe*Longhaul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside South AmericaSource:Tourism EconomicsVisits,000s44 Europes share of Brazilian market Indi

315、a market share summary India long-haul*outbound travel 201320152017201920212023202520270%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%Northern EuropeWestern EuropeSouthern EuropeCentral/Eastern Europe*Longhaul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside South AmericaSource:Tourism Economics%share of long-haul*market

316、Total outbound travel18,806-11.9%75.2%-4.4%-Long haul17,87295.0%12.2%77.6%96.3%-4.1%94.8%Short haul9345.0%5.2%28.9%3.7%-8.3%5.2%Travel to Europe2,99415.9%10.4%64.1%14.9%-18.4%18.7%European Union6253.3%25.1%206.7%5.8%-52.4%6.7%Northern Europe6623.5%8.6%51.0%3.0%-9.2%3.7%Western Europe9144.9%6.3%35.4%

317、3.8%-13.6%5.4%Southern Europe3631.9%9.5%57.5%1.7%19.2%1.5%Central/Eastern Europe1,0555.6%14.8%99.4%6.4%-33.1%8.0%*Shows cumulative change over the relevant time period indicated.2018-23 includes COVID-19 pandemic related declines.*Shares are expressed as%of total outbound travelSource:Tourism Econom

318、icsShare 2018*2023Growth(2023-28)Growth(2018-23)000sShare*Annual averageCumulative growth*Share 2028*Cumulative growth*45 Europes share of Indian market China market share summary 05.00010.00015.00020.00025.00020142015201620172018201920202021202220232024Rest of Long HaulCentral/Eastern EuropeSouther

319、n EuropeWestern Europe*Longhaul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside South AsiaSource:Tourism EconomicsVisits,000s201320152017201920212023202520270%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%10%Northern EuropeWestern EuropeSouthern EuropeCentral/Eastern Europe*Longhaul defined as tourist arrivals to destinati

320、ons outside South AsiaSource:Tourism Economics%share of long haul*marketTotal outbound travel44,915-26.5%224.1%-55.8%-Long haul18,80841.9%32.0%300.9%51.8%-64.2%51.8%Short haul26,10758.1%21.9%168.8%48.2%-46.7%48.2%Travel to Europe4,68010.4%33.4%322.4%13.6%-66.9%13.9%European Union1,0562.4%48.4%619.1%

321、5.2%-83.9%6.5%Northern Europe5961.3%32.6%310.6%1.7%-63.7%1.6%Western Europe1,7053.8%34.2%335.9%5.1%-71.4%5.9%Southern Europe6431.4%17.3%122.4%1.0%-50.5%1.3%Central/Eastern Europe1,7363.9%37.3%387.4%5.8%-66.8%5.1%*Shows cumulative change over the relevant time period indicated.2018-23 includes COVID-

322、19 pandemic related declines.*Shares are expressed as%of total outbound travelSource:Tourism EconomicsGrowth(2018-23)2023Growth(2023-28)000sShare*Annual averageCumulative growth*Share 2028*Cumulative growth*Share 2018*46 China long-haul*outbound travel Europes share of Chinese market Japan market sh

323、are summary 010.00020.00030.00040.00050.00060.00020142015201620172018201920202021202220232024Rest of Long HaulCentral/Eastern EuropeSouthern EuropeWestern Europe*Longhaul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside Northeast AsiaSource:Tourism EconomicsVisits,000s2013201520172019202120232025

324、20270%5%10%15%20%25%Northern EuropeWestern EuropeSouthern EuropeCentral/Eastern Europe*Longhaul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside Northeast AsiaSource:Tourism Economics%share of long haul*marketTotal outbound travel13,413-20.7%156.7%-44.2%-Long haul8,80865.7%20.1%149.9%63.9%-42.8%6

325、4.0%Short haul4,60534.3%21.9%169.5%36.1%-46.8%36.0%Travel to Europe2,78720.8%18.5%133.2%18.9%-41.5%19.8%European Union7715.7%41.9%475.1%12.9%-81.7%17.5%Northern Europe4493.3%18.5%133.4%3.0%-44.4%3.4%Western Europe9647.2%18.8%136.8%6.6%-46.2%7.5%Southern Europe1,0087.5%14.7%98.3%5.8%-29.8%6.0%Central

326、/Eastern Europe3672.7%26.1%219.4%3.4%-49.9%3.0%*Shows cumulative change over the relevant time period indicated.2018-23 includes COVID-19 pandemic related declines.*Shares are expressed as%of total outbound travelSource:Tourism EconomicsShare 2018*2023Growth(2023-28)Growth(2018-23)000sShare*Annual a

327、verageCumulative growth*Share 2028*Cumulative growth*47 Japan long-haul*outbound travel Europes share of Japanese market Australia market share summary 02.0004.0006.0008.00010.00012.00014.00016.00018.00020142015201620172018201920202021202220232024Rest of Long HaulCentral/Eastern EuropeSouthern Europ

328、eWestern EuropeNorthern Europe*Longhaul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside Northeast AsiaSource:Tourism EconomicsVisits,000s201320152017201920212023202520270%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%Northern EuropeWestern EuropeSouthern EuropeCentral/Eastern Europe*Longhaul defined as tourist arrival

329、s to destinations outside Northeast AsiaSource:Tourism Economics%share of long haul*market48 Australia long-haul*outbound travel Europes share of Australian market Total outbound travel18,109-9.4%56.9%-2.2%-Long haul17,37595.9%9.3%55.7%95.2%-2.9%96.6%Short haul7344.1%13.2%86.2%4.8%16.4%3.4%Travel to

330、 Europe6,25534.5%4.7%26.1%27.8%3.9%32.5%European Union8364.6%50.6%673.8%22.8%-83.3%26.9%Northern Europe1,82910.1%1.4%7.3%6.9%18.0%8.4%Western Europe1,7959.9%3.4%18.0%7.5%1.6%9.5%Southern Europe2,26712.5%7.3%42.2%11.3%2.8%11.9%Central/Eastern Europe3652.0%9.8%59.6%2.0%-26.7%2.7%*Shows cumulative chan

331、ge over the relevant time period indicated.2018-23 includes COVID-19 pandemic related declines.*Shares are expressed as%of total outbound travelSource:Tourism EconomicsShare*Annual averageCumulative growth*Share 2028*Cumulative growth*Share 2018*2023Growth(2023-28)Growth(2018-23)000s05.00010.00015.0

332、0020.00025.00020142015201620172018201920202021202220232024Rest of Long HaulCentral/Eastern EuropeSouthern EuropeWestern EuropeNorthern Europe*Longhaul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside OceaniaSource:Tourism EconomicsVisits,000s201320152017201920212023202520270%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%1

333、8%Northern EuropeWestern EuropeSouthern EuropeCentral/Eastern Europe*Longhaul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside OceaniaSource:Tourism Economics%share of long haul*market49 Russia market share summary Russia long-haul*outbound travel Europes share of Russian market Total outbound travel23,933-12.9%83.4%-21.5%-Long haul8,69236.3%9.9%60.6%31.8%25.5%22.7%Short haul15,24163.7%14.4%96.