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1、 2566CoverTHAILAND INDUSTRY OUTLOOK 2025-27Beverage IndustryKrungsri ResearchNovember 2024Subscribe UsAll material presented in this report,unless specifically indicated otherwise,is under copyright to Krungsri Research.None of the material,nor its content,nor any copy of it,may be altered in anyway

2、,or copied to any other party,without the prior express written permission of Krungsri Research.This document is based on public information believed to be reliable.Nevertheless,Krungsri Research would not affirm the accuracy and completeness of this information.We accept no liability whatsoever for

3、 any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this document or its content.Information,opinions and estimates contained in this report are our own,which are not necessarily the opinions of Bank of Ayudhya Public Company Limited and its affiliates.It reflects a judgment at its original da

4、te of publication by Krungsri Research and are subject to change without notice.DisclaimerFor research subscription,Rapeepoom LapmakA+662 296 2000 Ext.10262AuthorEXECUTIVE SUMMARY3Krungsri ResearchExecutive SummaryOutput by the beverage industry is forecast to rise at an average rate of 3.5-4.5%annu

5、ally over 2025-2027.Domestic sales volume will expand at a similar rate,helped by:(i)growth in the economy,especially in the tourism sector,which will then boost activity in the restaurant and entertainment industries;(ii)steadily rising temperatures;(iii)ongoing urbanization,growth in convenience s

6、tore networks,and expansion in platform delivery services,all of which will add to the range of channels through which beverages can be sold to consumers;and(iv)the development of a wide number of new health related products,especially non-alcoholic drinks.Exports will expand at the slightly slower

7、rate of 2.0-3.0%per year,with sales supported by recovery in cross-border trade,but the increasing trend among Thai and transnational manufacturers to invest in production facilities in the CLMV nations will drag on growth in overseas sales,especially for alcoholic drinks.Although an uptick in econo

8、mic activity and growth in the tourism sector will lift industry turnover through the three years from 2025 to 2027,players will have to contend with the impacts of steadily worsening climatic conditions on the cost of inputs.Distributors of mineral and bottled water:Revenue will rise on an improvin

9、g outlook for the tourism sector and for the economy generally.Increasing consumer worries over health and wellness are boosting demand for safe and healthy products,and this will benefit manufacturers that are viewed as trustworthy and that maintain high production standards.Demand for bottled wate

10、r from buyers in the CLMV countries,major markets for these products,will also tend to grow strongly.Distributors of carbonated drinks:Steadily rising temperatures will lift demand for refreshing and thirst-quenching drinks,while deepening consumer concerns over personal health are encouraging manuf

11、acturers to replace sugar with other sweeteners and to develop new products targeting health-conscious market segments.As such,income will tend to rise.Krungsri Research view4Krungsri ResearchBrewers:As elsewhere,the ongoing rebound in the tourism sector and a general uptick in the economy will lift

12、 revenue.Brewers will also benefit from the release of new products that are better aligned with consumer demand,including low-alcohol and low-calorie beers.However,stiffening competition and the rising cost of inputs will drag on profits.Distillers:The increasing impact of health worries will mean

13、that consumption of spirits will expand only weakly.However,handcrafted products with an interesting backstory will be well placed to generate significant added value and to outpace overall growth in the segment.Overview5Krungsri ResearchThe Thai beverage industry produces a comprehensive range of p

14、roduct lines,and these are sufficient to meet almost all domestic demand.Thus,98.6%of drinks consumed domestically are produced within the country and just 1.4%is imported,of which by volume,58%is of alcoholic drinks though considered by value,this rises to 80%.The industry is thus largely focused o

15、n supplying the domestic market,and 83.7%1/of all output is soaked up by the latter,with the remainder naturally being exported.As of 2023,a total of 409 sites producing beverages were registered with the Department of Industrial Works.The majority of these were located in the central region,and by

16、province,the most important areas were:Nakhon Pathom(40 sites),Chonburi(30),Pathum Thani(29),Pra Nakhon Sri Ayutthaya(22),Samut Sakhon(21),and Bangkok(16).These were split between:(i)349 sites(85%of the total)producing soft or non-alcoholic drinks,and(ii)60 sites(15%of the total)producing alcoholic

17、drinks.In 2023,the domestic market for beverages absorbed 13.02 billion liters of drinks,these having a value of USD 25.32 billion2/.By volume,the market was divided between the non-alcoholic and alcoholic segments in the ratio 77:23 but by value,the relative importance of the two segments flipped t

18、o a ratio of 36:64.Details of the market are as follows(Figure 1).Non-alcoholic drinks:10.6 billion liters of soft drinks were sold domestically in 2023,and these generated receipts of USD 9.05 billion.The most important products were mineral and bottled water,which accounted for 61.5%of sales(6.18

19、billion liters),followed in importance by carbonated drinks and soda(24.0%),ready-to-drink tea(4.2%),fruit juices(3.4%),energy drinks(2.9%),and other products(4.0%).1/Source:Euromonitor,Ministry of Commerce2/Based on the Bank of Thailands average exchange rate for 2023 of THB 34.81 to USD 1.Figure 1

20、:Thailand Domestic Beverage Consumption(2023)By VolumeAlcoholic drinks22.8%Non-alcoholic drinks77.2%13,022.9mn.litresBy ValueAlcoholic drinks64.3%Non-alcoholic drinks35.7%25,314.6mn.USDSpirits36.1%Beer55.8%16,268.8mn.USDOthers*8.1%Alcoholic DrinksCarbonates&soda31.5%9,045.8mn.USDPurified&mineral bot

21、tled water37.2%RTD tea 6.0%Juice 7.7%Energy drinks8.2%Others*9.4%Non-Alcoholic DrinksSpirits24.5%Beer73.5%2,965.9mn.litresOthers*2.0%Alcoholic DrinksNote:*Other non-alcoholic drinks include sports drinks(2.0%),RTD coffee(1.9%),and concentrates(0.1%)*Other alcoholic drinks include RTDs(1.0%),wine(0.9

22、%),and cider/perry(0.1%)Note:*Other non-alcoholic drinks include sports drinks(3.6%),RTD coffee(5.0%),and concentrates(0.8%)*Other alcoholic drinks include wine(7.2%),RTDs(0.8%),and cider/perry(0.1%)Source:EuromonitorCarbonates&soda 24.0%10,057mn.litresPurified&mineral bottled water61.5%RTD tea 4.2%

23、Juice 3.4%Energy drinks 2.9%Others*4.0%Non-Alcoholic DrinksTotalTotalAlcoholic drinks:Domestic sales totaled 2.97 billion liters,which then brought in USD 16.27 billion in income.Beer was the most important market segment,and 2.18 billion liters of this were sold in the year(a 73.5%market share by v

24、olume).This was followed in importance by spirits(24.5%),ready-mixed alcoholic drinks(1.0%),wine(0.9%)and cider(0.1%).In 2023,exports of Thai beverages brought in USD 2.78 billion from total sales of 2.54 billion liters(Figure 2).With an 18.4%share of the export market,Thailands most important trade

25、 partner was Cambodia,followed by Vietnam(a 13.3%market share),Myanmar(12.5%),China(11.2%)and the US(10.9%).Exports can be split into two main groups.(i)Overseas sales of non-alcoholic drinks accounted for 93.3%of the total by volume and 84.6%by value.The main markets for Thai soft drinks were Cambo

26、dia(19.0%of exports of soft drinks by volume),Vietnam(14.3%),China(11.9%),the US(11.5%),and Myanmar(10%).(ii)By volume and value,alcoholic drinks represented respectively 6.7%and 15.4%of all beverage exports.Here,the most important markets were Myanmar(47.3%of all exports of alcoholic drinks),follow

27、ed by the US(14.4%),Cambodia(9.7%),Japan(5.5%)and Israel(2.6%).6Krungsri ResearchSource:Ministry of Commerce(MOC)Figure 2:Thailand Beverage Exports(2023)Alcoholic drinks15.4%Non-alcoholic drinks84.6%2,781.9mn.USDAlcoholic drinks6.7%Non-alcoholic drinks93.3%2,540.6mn.litresCarbonates&soda3.8%2,369.5m

28、n.litresPurified&mineral bottled water7.7%Energy drinks 29.6%Others*30.8%Spirits55.1%Beer28.4%427.5mn.USDCider/perry1.4%2,354.4mn.USDEnergy drinks30.8%Others*37.9%Spirits 11.9%Beer77.3%171.0mn.litresCider/perry2.9%Alcoholic DrinksWine 8.0%Wine15.1%Juices31.3%Note:*Other non-alcoholic drinks include

29、RTD coffee(1.0%),concentrates(1.1%)and other drinks(28.7%)Note:*Other non-alcoholic drinks include purified&mineral bottled water(2.0%),carbonates and soda(1.3%),concentrates(2.8%),RTD coffee(5.1%)and other drinks(26.7%).Non-Alcoholic DrinksTotalAlcoholic DrinksNon-Alcoholic DrinksTotalBy VolumeBy V

30、alueJuices28.1%7Krungsri ResearchFigure 3:Thailand Beverage Supply Chain,2023Domestic market13,022.9 mn.litresCarbonates&soda 24.0%10,057mn.litresSpirits24.5%Beer73.5%2,965.9mn.litresOthers2.0%Alcoholic drinksSoft drinksImports 196.9 mn.litres(1.4%of total consumption)Vietnam15.7%BycountryLaos14.2%A

31、ustralia6.4%Others 36.4%Israel5.6%Carbonates&soda 14.9%By productPurified&mineral bottled water7.8%Spirits26.0%Beer 17.4%Others 5.2%Wine10.6%PackagingLocal ingredients:SugarFruit&vegetablesMalt,vanilla,chocolatecoffee beans,green teaImported ingredients:Local supporting industries:WaterRaw materials

32、Soft drinksBeerSpiritsMixing tank(concentrate,sweeteners,additives)Filtration(reverse osmosis,microfilters)Chilling&carbonation(optional)PackagingUV light&ozoneIncoming water(surface,underground water)Mashing ingredientsBrewing(adding hops)&chillingFermentation(adding yeast to convert sugar to alcoh

33、ol)FiltrationMashing ingredientsFermentation(adding yeast to convert sugar to alcohol)Distillation(separating liquid mixture using evaporation and condensation)Aging(preservation for desired color or flavor)&filtrationBottled waterDomestic production(98.6%of total consumption)Domestic market share b

34、y channelE-commerce 2.7%Offline stores 97.3%Vending 2.6%Retail 94.7%Modern trade 59.5%Distributors 35.2%Conveniencestores 30.3%Supermarkets5.9%Hypermarkets23.3%Drink specialists5.6%Local grocers29.6%Offline stores 100.0%Modern trade outlets,65.4%Distributors34.6%Conveniencestores 17.2%Supermarkets19

35、.2%Hypermarkets29.1%Drink specialists16.5%Local grocers18.1%Soft drinksAlcoholic drinksExport market*Philippines15.2%Myanmar29.2%20.3mn.litresOthers30.9%South Korea13.7%UAE18.5%Myanmar49.9%132.2mn.litresOthers23.2%Cambodia8.4%Cambodia26.7%Myanmar63.9%13.7mn.litresOthers6.9%China2.5%BeerWineSpiritsAl

36、coholic drinksCambodia18.7%Vietnam45.1%700.4mn.litresOthers22.0%Myanmar11.8%China26.5%Cambodia43.4%182.7mn.litresOthers4.7%Myanmar8.2%Myanmar35.5%Cambodia45.2%91.2mn.litresOthers5.3%Laos8.3%Energy drinksPurified&mineral bottled waterCarbonatesSoft drinksUSA27.5%Others28.2%664.7mn.litresCambodia7.4%C

37、hina28.3%JuicesCarbonates&soda 3.8%2,369.5mn.litresPurified&mineral bottled water 7.7%Energy drinks 29.6%Other 30.8%USA10.9%China11.2%Cambodia18.4%Myanmar12.5%Vietnam13.3%Others33.7%By Volume2,540.6mn.litresUSA10.2%Cambodia16.4%China10.6%Vietnam14.5%Others34.2%2,781.9mn.USDMyanmar14.1%Note:*HS Code:

38、2009,2201-2208,The percentage share is based on volume.Source:Euromonitor,Ministry of Commerce(MOC),the Office of Industrial Economics(OIE),Krungsri Research By valueJuices28.1%Juices18.1%China9.1%Domestic83.7%Exports16.3%Indonesia6.4%UK6.2%Laos2.4%Laos5.1%Myanmar3.5%Laos17.2%USA5.7%171.0mn.litresCi

39、der/perry2.9%Wine8.0%Spirits11.9%Beer77.3%Japan11.0%Purified&mineral bottled water61.5%RTD tea 4.2%Juices 3.4%Energy drinks 2.9%Others 4.0%Situation8Krungsri ResearchOverall industry output remained broadly flat in 2023,inching up just 0.3%,but over 9M24,this strengthened 4.3%YoY.For 2024 as a whole

40、,output is now expected to be up by 4.0-5.0%(Figure 4).The situation with individual product groups is described below.Non-alcoholic beverages:Output of the main product groups of mineral and bottled water,soda and carbonated drinks,and energy and electrolyte drinks edged up 1.7%in 2023.Demand rose

41、on general growth in the economy,while players benefited from the decline in the cost of packaging(Figure 5).Over the first 9 months of 2024,output rose another 3.8%YoY as spending rallied,consumers increasingly returned to normal patterns of socializing and shopping outside the home,and the tourism

42、 sector continued to strengthen.For the year as a whole,output of non-alcoholic drinks is expected to rise by 3.5-4.5%.Mineral and bottled water:Output increased by 1.9%in 2023 and then by another 1.8%YoY in 9M24.For 2024,production volume is forecast to rise by 1.5-2.5%(Figure 6).Sodas and carbonat

43、ed drinks:In 2023,output jumped 4.8%,followed by another jump of 5.8%YoY over 9M24,and for all of 2024,this is expected to be up by 5.5-6.5%(Figure 7).2030405060-40-20020402018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 9M23 9M24RiceSugarcanePET price(RHS)Figure 4:Production Volume and Capacity Utilization in the Bev

44、erage Industry30405060702021202220232024F9M239M24-10-50510Capacity utilization%change in production volume(RHS)%Cap U%YoYFigure 5:Cost of Ingredients and Materials%YoYTHB/kgSource:OIE,OAE,Plastic Intelligence UnitFigure 7:Production Volume andCapacity Utilization,Soda&Carbonated Drinks30405060702021

45、202220232024F9M239M24-10-50510Capacity utilization%change in production volume(RHS)%Cap U%YoYFigure 6:Production Volume andCapacity Utilization,Bottled Water30405060702021202220232024F9M239M24-10-50510Capacity utilization%change in production volume(RHS)%Cap U%YoYSource:OIESource:OIESource:OIEAlcoho

46、lic drinks:For the main products of beers and spirits,production contracted-4.9%in 2023 but this bounced back to an expansion of 6.2%YoY over 9M24,and so for the year overall,production is expected to be up 6.0-7.0%.This will be split between the following.Beer:In 2023,high levels of stockholding en

47、couraged brewers to cut back on production and to run down inventories and so output contracted-6.8%in the year.The industry was also affected by the increased cost of packaging(i.e.,metal cans and glass bottles)and transport that then forced producers to implement price rises of 1.0-3.0%,having hel

48、d back on these in the previous year.However,the segment swung back to growth of 6.9%YoY over the first 9 months of 2024(Figure 8)as producers engaged in the restocking needed to meet rising demand,especially from sales in tourist areas that are reliant on purchases by overseas visitors.Stock levels

49、 have thus returned to normal(Figure 9),and for 2024,output should be up by 7.0-8.0%.Spirits:Production rose 2.9%in 2023,moving in line with the increase in economic activity and the normalization of services in restaurants and in the entertainment industry.Moreover,although inventories were high,sp

50、irits have a much longer shelf life than beer and so it was not as necessary for distilleries to switch to a destocking cycle(Figure 11).Production has continued to expand in 2024,rising 3.5%YoY over 9M24(Figure 10)on the ongoing rebound in the tourism sector and growth in the economy overall,and fo

51、r all of 2024,this should be up by 3.5-4.5%.9Krungsri ResearchFigure 8:Production Volume and Capacity Utilization,Beer30405060702021202220232024F9M239M24-20-1001020Capacity utilization%change in production volume(RHS)%Cap U%YoYFigure 9:Stock Index of Beer80901001101202021202220239M239M24Index 2021=1

52、00Source:OIESource:OIEFigure 10:Production Volume and Capacity Utilization,Spirits30405060702021202220232024F9M239M24-20-1001020Capacity utilization%change in production volume(RHS)%Cap U%YoYSource:OIEFigure 11:Stock Index of Spirits80901001101202021202220239M239M24Index 2021=100Source:OIEAn expandi

53、ng economy,the rise in overseas arrivals,and the return to normal of entertainment services meant that demand from hotels,restaurants,pubs and bars was up,and as such,the volume of drinks sold to the domestic market surged 7.0%3/in 2023.These trends continued through the first 9 months of 2024 and s

54、o over this period,domestic sales volume climbed another 4.1%YoY.For all of 2024,domestic sales volume is thus expected to be up by 4.0-5.0%.The situation for individual market segments is described below.Non-alcoholic drinks:Sales volume climbed 7.0%in 2023 and another 3.5%YoY in 9M24 on hotter tha

55、n normal weather that was partly caused by the years El Nio.In addition,manufacturers have responded to intensifying consumer worries over health and a corresponding rise in demand for non-alcoholic drinks by developing a wider range of products,including vitamin-and mineral-enriched water and elect

56、rolyte drinks,as well as carbonated drinks made with non-sugar sweeteners.The total volume of goods sold to the domestic market is therefore forecast to expand by 3.5-4.5%across 2024.The outlook for individual segments is described below.Mineral and bottled water:Sales volume jumped 10.5%in 2023 wit

57、h the three largest brandsSingha,Crystal and Nestloccupying more than 50%of the market.Growth continued through 9M24,with sales rising another 2.8%YoY(Figure 12),and so for the year,the quantity of mineral and bottled water sold to the domestic market is forecast to rise by 3.0-4.0%.Sodas and carbon

58、ated drinks:The enforcement of the latest round of the sugar tax on 1st April 2023 limited sales growth to just 0.9%.As with water,sales were dominated by three brandsCoke,Pepsi and Fantathat accounted for more than 70%of the market.Growth accelerated in the first 9 months of 2024,rising 3.8%YoY,and

59、 this rate should be maintained over the year as a whole.2024 domestic sales should thus expand by 4.0-5.0%.10Krungsri Research3/Data for the 2023 domestic sales volume is from Euromonitor,9M24 data is provided by the Office of Industrial Economics,and forecasts are by Krungsri Research.Source:OIE,E

60、uromonitorFigure 12:Domestic Consumption of Bottled Water,by Volume-20-10010202018201920202021202220232024F9M239M24%YoYFigure 13:Domestic Consumption of Carbonates&Soda,by Volume-10010202018201920202021202220232024F9M239M24%YoYSource:OIE,EuromonitorAlcoholic drinks:In 2023,the rise in tourist arriva

61、ls and the return of social life to normal had positive impacts on businesses that sell alcohol,such as pubs,bars,and other entertainment sites,especially for those in the major tourist areas of Bangkok,Phuket,and Pattaya.Given this,the volume of goods sold to the domestic market rose 6.8%in the yea

62、r.These trends continued to lift the market through the first 9 months of 2024 and this,combined with the decision to allow entertainment sites located in the five pilot regions of Bangkok,Phuket,Chonburi,Chiang Mai and Ko Samui and those in hotels nationwide to remain open until 4 a.m.(in effect fr

63、om December 2023),lifted sales by another 6.5%YoY.Domestic sales volume was further boosted by 2024s Songkran celebrations,which were the most crowded and widely celebrated since the pandemic,and this then helped to further boost demand from domestic and foreign tourists.The quantity of alcoholic dr

64、inks sold to the domestic market is therefore expected to climb by 6.5-7.5%across the entirety of 2024.Beer:Sales volumes rose by 8.2%in 2023 and then 6.0%YoY in 9M24.This trend will continue,and so the volume of beer sold domestically will be up by 6.0-7.0%over 2024(Figure 14).Demand is benefiting

65、from the move by manufacturers to widen the range of choices available to consumers,which now includes non-alcoholic,fruit-scented,craft,and low-calorie beers.Nevertheless,almost 90%of sales are made by just three brands,namely Leo,Chang and Singha,though competition is increasing as new players ent

66、er the market(e.g.,Carabao beer).Spirits:The volume of spirits sold domestically improved 2.6%in 2023 and 8.4%YoY in 9M24,and for the year overall,growth should remain in the range of 8.5-9.5%(Figure 15).Sales are being lifted by recovery in the tourism sector and the entertainment industry,as well

67、as by growing consumer interest in handmade local spirits that have a unique identity and backstory,and an interesting or novel flavor.Nevertheless,sales of these products will remain limited and the three largest brands(Ruang Khao,Blend 285,and Hong Thong)continue to account for more than 70%of the

68、 market.11Krungsri ResearchSource:OIE,EuromonitorFigure 14:Domestic Consumption of Beer,by Volume-20-10010202018201920202021202220232024F9M239M24%YoYFigure 15:Domestic Consumption of Spirits,by Volume-10-505102018201920202021202220232024F9M239M24%YoYSource:OIE,EuromonitorBy volume,exports dropped-1.

69、5%to 2.5 billion liters in 2023,but by value,these increased 2.0%to USD 2.8 billion(Figure 16),with declines in sale volumes concentrated in sodas and carbonated drinks(-11.9%)and beers(-4.8%).Over 9M24,export volume returned to growth of 1.6%YoY,helped by strengthening economies in Vietnam and Lao

70、PDR,while rising manufacturing and transportation costs pushed up prices and hence income from the export of beverages by 8.8%YoY.For 2024 overall,export volume is expected to rise by 1.0-2.0%,split between the following product categories.Non-alcoholic drinks:Export value rose 1.6%in 2023,but by vo

71、lume,overseas sales slipped-1.3%,largely as a result of falling demand for Thai sodas and carbonated drinks in Cambodia and Lao PDR.In these countries,sales were impacted by the switch in demand to products imported from other countries,as well as by soft spending power that then dragged on discreti

72、onary purchases,including drinks.Nevertheless,exports of fruit juices to China performed well,and with these increasingly finding favor with Chinese consumers,sales into the country jumped 115.1%.Over the first 9 months of 2024,export volume and value rose by respectively 1.8%YoY and 11.7%YoY,and th

73、rough the remainder of the year,sales will continue to benefit from the continuing strength of demand from China for fruit juices,even if demand for energy drinks,bottled water,and carbonated drinks weakens slightly on sluggish economic conditions in export markets.For 2024 overall,exports of non-al

74、coholic drinks are forecast to expand by 1.5-2.5%by volume.Bottled and mineral water:Exports rose 1.1%by volume but were up a full 10.5%by value in 2023 on growth in sales into Lao PDR(+49.6%)and China(+13.2%),which together account for 44%of all exports from Thailand of bottled and mineral water,wh

75、ile over 9M23,although they jumped another 12.9%YoY by value,they declined-3.5%YoY by volume(Figure 17).In the period,sales were down-35.5%to Lao PDR,-5.8%to Cambodia,and-33.1%to Myanmar.These declines follow a period of sharply accelerating exports over 2022 and 2023 and,in the case of Myanmar,ongo

76、ing disturbances within the country.12Krungsri ResearchFigure 16:Thailand Beverage Exports-40-2002040602018201920202021202220232024F9M239M24VolumeValue%YoYSource:MOC0.01.02.03.04.00.01.02.03.04.02018201920202021202220232024F9M239M24VolumeValue(RHS)Liter,bnUSD,bnSource:MOC-100010020020182019202020212

77、02220232024F 9M23 9M24VolumeValue%YoYFigure 17:Thailand Bottled Water ExportsSource:MOCGrowth in export value was largely attributable to the 23.0%increase in sales into China,where consumers have strongly positive views of Thai products.Over the rest of the year,sales of bottled and mineral water i

78、nto markets in neighboring countries will benefit from the need to build stocks for the end of year celebrations,and so for all of 2024,declines in export volume are likely to be limited to between-2.5%and-3.5%.Sodas and carbonated drinks:Exports slipped-11.9%by volume and-7.2%by value in 2023 due t

79、o weakness in the Lao PDR market,where sales were down by volume and value by respectively-30.5%and-29.8%.With the Laotian Kip sharply down in value,the cost of imports has risen and so consumers are tending to steer away from what are now luxury goods,such as carbonated drinks,and towards basics,su

80、ch as drinking water.Over 9M24,although export value rose 12.3%YoY on the rising cost of inputs,which then lifted prices(Figure 18),export volume contracted by another-24.9%YoY following a substantial increase in exports in the preceding year and as health concerns increasingly push consumers toward

81、s drinking water instead of sweetened products.For 2024 overall,sales volume is thus expected to be down by between-21.0%and-22.0%.13Krungsri ResearchSource:MOC-60-40-200204060801002018201920202021202220232024F 9M23 9M24VolumeValue%YoYFigure 18:Thailand Carbonate ExportsAlcoholic drinks:2023 exports

82、 were down-5.2%by volume but up 4.3%by value,while over 9M24,these declined on both fronts,dropping-1.3%YoY by volume and-7.3%YoY by value.However,the situation is improving and although exports of spirits will tend to soften as importers run down their inventories,sales of beer into new markets wil

83、l help to keep overall growth in exports in the range of 0.0-1.0%for all of 2024.Beer:In 2023,exports strengthened 7.5%by value but fell back-4.8%by volume.This was largely a result of the-10.9%drop off in sales to Myanmar,Thailands most important overseas market for alcoholic drinks(the country acc

84、ounts for 47.3%of sales),where the authorities tightened controls on imports,in particular of goods that are also made domestically,alcoholic drinks,and luxury/discretionary items.However,more open up of economic activities in the Middle East helped to boost 9M24 exports by 3.5%YoY by volume and 2.6

85、%YoY by value(Figure 19).Sales to the UAE were especially strong(+23.9%YoY)thanks to the governments relaxation of controls on the consumption of alcohol and liberalization of economic activities,as well as the uptick in business in hotels and restaurants.By volume,2024 beer exports are therefore ex

86、pected to rise by 3.5-4.5%.Spirits:By volume and value,2023 exports were up by respectively 1.5%and 6.9%.Sales to South Korea surged 714.0%by volume as importers looked to rebuild stocks,while by value,strong performers included China(+211.0%),Cambodia(+276.7%),India(+84.0%),Macau(+2462.0%)and Russi

87、a(+328.0%),where sales have been helped by the development of a wide range of generally premium,high-cost products.However,exports swung back to contractions of-8.6%YoY by volume and-10.6%YoY by value over the first 9 months of 2024(Figure 20).This was partly due to importers running down stocks tha

88、t had built up a year earlier,and so for all of 2024,export volume is expected to fall by between-7.5%and-8.5%.14Krungsri ResearchSource:MOC-40-200204060802018201920202021202220232024F9M239M24VolumeValue%YoYFigure 20:Thailand Spirit Exports-40-20020402018201920202021202220232024F9M239M24VolumeValue%

89、YoYFigure 19:Thailand Beer ExportsSource:MOCOutlook15Krungsri ResearchTotal output from the Thai beverage industry is forecast to expand by 3.5-4.5%annually over 2025-2027.The outlook will be boosted by:(i)steadily strengthening domestic demand;(ii)the switch back to inventory building following a p

90、eriod of destocking as players prepare for an uptick in economic activity;and(iii)the development of a wide range of health drinks and the implementation of proactive marketing strategies.Nevertheless,growth will also come under pressure from:(i)the impact of climate change and the resulting increas

91、ed variability in the weather system on the cost of the agricultural inputs used by the industry;and(ii)the switch to the use of more environmentally friendly packaging and the possibility that costs may increase in consequence.Non-alcoholic drinks:Domestic output should increase by 4.0-5.0%annually

92、 over the next 3 years on:(i)a 4.0-5.0%yearly increase in the production of bottled and mineral water;and(ii)growth of 3.0-4.0%in output of sodas and carbonated drinks.This will largely be driven by strengthening demand that will come especially from the rising number of foreign tourist arrivals,gro

93、wth in the economy,and the return to normal of activities carried out outside the home.This will then encourage players to invest in the expansion and upgrade of their production capacity,and to bring newly innovative products to market that are a better fit for current consumer demand,especially wi

94、th regard to health drinks.Alcoholic drinks:Overall output of alcoholic drinks will rise only slowly,growing by some 1.0-2.0%annually over the next three years,and both brewers and distillers will have to face with similarly low rates of growth.The market will be lifted by the ongoing rebound in the

95、 tourism sector and the domestic uptick in social activities,which will then push manufacturers to expand their production capacity,especially for craft or premium products.In addition,the introduction to the market of new products with innovative flavors and ingredients will help to expand the rang

96、e of consumers with which brewers and distillers are able to connect.However,at the same time,players will need to adapt to changes in the regulatory and tax frameworks,as well as to the impacts of a more variable climate on the prices paid for agricultural inputs,for example for sugarcane and rice.

97、Increasingly widespread concerns about personal health and welfare are also encouraging consumers to cut back on the consumption of alcohol,and going forward,this will impact production levels.-12-6061218242018201920202021202220232024E2025F2026F2027FAll drinksNon-alcoholic drinksAlcoholic drinksFigu

98、re 21:Forecast Thai Beverage Production Volume%YoYSource:OIE,Euromonitor16Krungsri ResearchThe quantity of beverages sold to the domestic market is forecast to expand by 3.5-4.5%per year.Sales will be lifted by:(i)steadily rising temperatures and,with this,increasing demand for refreshing soft drink

99、s;(ii)growth in the economy and the ongoing increase in tourist arrivals,which will boost activity in restaurants,hotels,pubs,bars and other related businesses;(iii)continuing urbanization and the relentless spread of convenience stores,which is making it easier for buyers and sellers to connect;and

100、(iv)growth in online distribution and platform-based delivery services that is then making it easier for consumers to purchase these goods(only for non-alcoholic drinks).Non-alcoholic drinks:Domestic sales volume is predicted to be up by 4.0-5.0%annually,split between growth of:(i)4.0-5.0%for sales

101、of bottled and mineral water,sales of which will be lifted by the growing consumer preference for pure,unadulterated drinking water;and(ii)3.0-4.0%for demand for sodas and carbonated drinks,where sellers will benefit from the development of new products that include added vitamins and minerals,or th

102、at reduce the sugar content or replace this with non-sugar sweeteners,thereby responding better to changes in demand from new generation consumers.Nevertheless,although manufacturers are responding to changing market conditions with the release of new products,the tightening of the sugar tax,the nex

103、t stage of which will be introduced in April 20254/,will continue to drag on demand.Alcoholic drinks:The quantity of alcoholic beverages sold domestically should grow by 1.5-2.5%per year over the next 3 years,split between growth of 1.5-2.5%for beer and 1.0-2.0%for spirits.The market will benefit fr

104、om:(i)the continuing health of the tourism sector and of the economy more generally;(ii)the development of new products with a lower alcohol content,and of craft beers and spirits that cater to a wider range of tastes and that appeal to consumers looking for new experiences.Nevertheless,headwinds wi

105、ll blow against growth,and these will come from:(i)deepening awareness of the negative health consequences of alcohol consumption,which is then impacting demand;and(ii)legal restrictions on the sale of alcohol that limit this to shops,department stores and food and drink outlets(i.e.,to offline reta

106、ilers),as well as strict controls on advertising that make it difficult for distributors to get their products in front of consumer eyes in the media and in online spaces.4/The sugar tax is calculated on the basis of the sugar content of the drink(sugar tax owed=(tax rate for the sugar content of th

107、at drink x net volume in milliliters)/1,000).Rates are published in the 2022 excise rates documents(the 28th issue),which revised the tax rates for non-alcoholic drinks.(i)Taxes on non-alcoholic drinks are now calculated on the basis of sugar content and added value.Initially,increases in tax were r

108、elatively mild,but these are being hiked at an accelerating rate every 2 years,with the next phase due to take effect on April 1st,2025.(ii)Coffee and tea have been removed from the list of tax-exempt drinks(they had been included on this list because their sale promoted consumption of agricultural

109、produce and because they were judged to have health benefits),and as such,taxes on these have risen(for details,please see Box 1).-15-10-505102018201920202021202220232024E2025F2026F2027FAll drinksNon-alcoholic drinksAlcoholic drinksFigure 22:Forecast Domestic Beverage Consumption%YoYSource:OIE,Eurom

110、onitor17Krungsri ResearchExports are likely to trend upwards by 2.0-3.0%per year over the next three years thanks to strengthening cross-border trade,although this will be balanced by rising investment by Thai and transnational players in beverage production in the CLMV nations that will then steadi

111、ly undercut export volume.Non-alcoholic drinks:Exports of soft drinks will expand by 2.5-3.5%annually.(i)Overseas sales of bottled and mineral water will be up by 4.5-5.5%pa on strengthening economic activity and widening distribution channels in the CLMV nations,markets where health concerns are de

112、epening and so demand for drinking water is rising.(ii)A number of headwinds,including increased investment in domestic beverage production by local,Thai,and transnational players,the relative price advantage of locally produced drinks over imported alternatives,and the switch among consumers to fav

113、or healthier drinks,will mean that annual exports of sodas and carbonated drinks will decline by between-1.5%and-2.5%.(iii)Exports of energy drinks,especially to Vietnam,will benefit from stronger sales to newly-employed younger consumers who are more likely to engage in regular exercise and who the

114、refore express stronger demand for refreshing and easily consumed sources of energy,and as such,these should rise by 3.0-4.0%per year.(iv)Overseas sales of fruit juices should strengthen by 4.0-5.0%annually.In the main markets of the US and China,demand continues to rise for fruit juices to mix with

115、 other drinks and for beverages that provide health benefits and given widespread acceptance of the flavors of Thai products and the high-quality of their inputs and production standards,these are well placed to benefit from changing patterns of demand.Alcoholic drinks:Overall,exports are likely to

116、contract by between-1.0%and-2.0%per year,and this rate of decline is expected to be mirrored in the figures for overseas sales of both beer and spirits.Sales will be hurt by:(i)Stiffening competition within these markets from domestic and overseas players and increasing investment in overseas produc

117、tion by Thai brewers and distillers,which will steadily undercut export volume and value.(ii)The ongoing disturbances in Myanmar(Thailands most important export market for alcoholic beverages)and uncertainty over the regulations governing Thai-Myanmar cross-border trade.Nevertheless,tailwinds will c

118、ome from:(i)continuing economic growth in the CLMV countries,which will then lift consumer spending power;and(ii)the investments made by Thai players in improving production processes,which will then help Thai producers expand further into overseas markets.-50-25025502018201920202021202220232024E202

119、5F2026F2027FAll drinksNon-alcoholic drinksAlcoholic drinksFigure 23:Forecast Thai Beverage Exports%YoYSource:MOC18Krungsri ResearchSegmentProductProductionDomestic consumptionExport volumeAll beverages3.5-4.5%3.5-4.5%2.0-3.0%Non-alcoholic drinks4.0-5.0%4.0-5.0%2.5-3.5%Bottled water4.0-5.0%4.0-5.0%4.

120、5-5.5%Carbonated drinks3.0-4.0%3.0-4.0%-1.5%to-2.5%Alcoholic drinks1.0-2.0%1.5-2.5%-1.0%to-2.0%Beer1.0-2.0%1.5-2.5%-1.0%to-2.0%Spirits1.0-2.0%1.0-2.0%-1.0%to-2.0%Figure 24:Summary of 2025-2027 Beverage Outlooks by Segment and ProductSource:MOC19Krungsri Research.5/Source:Announcement by the Excise D

121、epartment on the criteria for charging tax on the value of fruit and vegetable drinks.6/Source:Announcement by the Excise Department on the criteria for charging tax on fruit and vegetable drinks that have been sweetened or that contain other additives.CodeType of drinkPeriod ofenforcementTax dueTax

122、 dueon price(%)Tax due calculated on sugar content per 100ml(baht/liter)0.00-6.00 grams6.01-8.00grams8.01-10.00 grams10.01-14.00grams 14.01 grams0201Mineral water,and carbonated and other types of drinks that do not contain sugar,sweeteners,or other flavoringsApril 1st,2023-March 31st,202514%ExemptA

123、pril 1st,2025,onwardsExempt0202(1)Still,carbonated and other types of drinks that have been flavored or to which sugar or sweeteners have been added(not including vegetable or fruit juices covered by code 0203)April 1st,2023-March 31st,202514%Exempt0.30 1.00 3.00 5.00 April 1st,2025,onwardsExempt1.0

124、03.005.005.000202(2)Other drinks containing supplements or other additives for which a food additive code has been formally assigned as per the Food Act and that meet other conditions set by the authorities(not including sports/electrolyte drinks as regulated by the Food Act and drinks containing ca

125、ffeine that are also covered by the Food Act and that require a warning label)April 1st,2023-March 31st,202510%Exempt0.30 1.00 3.00 5.00 April 1st,2025,onwardsExempt1.003.005.005.000203(1)Fruit and vegetable drinksApril 1st,2023-March 31st,202510%Exempt0.30 1.00 3.00 5.00 0203(2)Fruit and vegetable

126、drinks5/0%0203(3)Fruit and vegetable drinks6/3%0203(1)Fruit and vegetable drinksApril 1st,2025,onwards10%Exempt1.00 3.00 5.00 5.00 0203(2)Fruit and vegetable drinks5/0%0203(3)Fruit and vegetable drinks6/3%0204Concentrated syrups used to prepare drinks for sale to consumers for immediate consumption.

127、Measurements of sugar concentrations must be in accordance with the requirements specified by the authorities.April 1st,2023-March 31st,20250%9.0 12.0 16.0 30.0 44.0 April 1st,2025,onwards9.0 16.0 30.0 44.0 44.0 1690Powdered,dried,or concentrated drinks that contain sugar and that dissolve in water(

128、not including nutritional supplements or powdered milk,as defined by the Food Act).Measurements of sugar concentrations must be in accordance with the requirements specified by the authorities.April 1st,2023-March 31st,20250%Exempt0.30 1.00 3.00 5.00 April 1st,2025,onwardsExempt1.003.005.005.00Sugar

129、 Tax on Non-alcoholic Drinks Box 1Box 1Note:1.Products that are made principally from milk,such as yoghurt and flavored milk,are exempt from the sugar tax(source:Excise Department).2.The taxes on the sugar content of drinks is based on the published excise duties(No.28,2022).Issues connected with su

130、stainability are taking on a much more central role in guiding business decisions within the Thai beverage industry.In particular,the ESG(environmental,social,and governance)agenda is helping to drive the greening of the industry,and with both consumers and investors much more concerned with the env

131、ironmental friendliness and positive social impacts of beverage products,companies are having to adjust as they respond to changes in demand.This is taking the following forms.The environmentPromoting the use of sustainable packaging:Environmentally friendly packaging includes biodegradable plastics

132、 and packaging that can be reused or recycled.Players may also partner with manufacturers to design new types of packaging that require less plastic or other non-biodegradable inputs.Promoting sustainable agriculture:Sourcing inputs that have been grown sustainably is becoming increasingly important

133、,and manufacturers should pay greater attention to using organically grown inputs,cutting their reliance on chemical inputs,and supporting growers who use crop rotation strategies.Companies should also favor farmers who grow a wide range of products,thus helping to support biodiversity and increasin

134、g the drawdown of atmospheric carbon.Using water resources sustainably:Manufacturers are tending to focus more heavily on reducing the quantity of water used in production and then on improving waste-water management,thereby increasing the potential for the reuse of this.Cutting carbon emissions:The

135、 transition to renewables(e.g.,solar and wind)or increased investment in energy-saving technologies(e.g.,reusing heat generated from production processes)will help to cut industry emissions.Improved waste management:Better waste management processes that reduce the quantity of waste generated across

136、 the length of production processes,the increased reuse of inputs,and the implementation of principles drawn from the circular economy will help to cut the quantity of resources that are used.This will also allow materials to be reused or repurposed,including for example packaging materials and the

137、byproducts of manufacturing processes.Social issuesExtending the range of healthy drinking choices:This will include better labelling of products and ensuring that their nutritional content is clearly displayed and encouraging the responsible consumption of alcohol.The latter will involve the develo

138、pment of low-or non-alcoholic drinks and the promotion of a safer drinking environment,especially for women.Increased social responsibility:Players will more carefully assess the impacts of their activities on sites where they carry out business activities,from constructing breweries and distillerie

139、s through to their operation.Companies will also be more active in supporting the local communities where they operate,for example by building clinics and providing financial support for children from disadvantaged families.Creating a positive work environment:Companies will focus on providing great

140、er care for their employees through improved safety and welfare(e.g.,by providing staff training programs).Forestation and restoration programs:Players will need to join with forestation and reclamation projects as part of efforts to offset their carbon emissions and to promote local biodiversity.Ma

141、nufacturers should also support sustainable farming activities.Sustainability in the beverage industry20Krungsri ResearchGovernanceTransparency and accountability:Players will need to ensure that corporate governance is transparent,for example as this relates to the release of data on compliance wit

142、h ESG strategies and goals.Communications with employees will also need to be clear so that staff are able to understand the importance of ESG-related issues and the role to be played by them in reaching these targets.Promoting diversity:Goals should be set for increasing the diversity and inclusive

143、ness of the board and opportunities increased for individuals from underrepresented or disadvantaged groups to demonstrate their potential.This will not only help to address problems with inequity in society but will also improve talent recruitment and retention within the company.Risk management:Ma

144、nagement of risk connected to business operations should be improved,for example as this relates to the potential impacts of climate change on operations.21Krungsri ResearchKRUNGSRI RESEARCHOur TeamMacroeconomic TeamSujit ChaivichayachatHead of Macroeconomic ResearchChurailuk PholsriSenior Economist

145、(Forecasting)Analytics&Intelligence TeamPimnara Hirankasi,Ph.D.Acting Head of Analytics and Intelligence Research DepartmentThamon SernsuksakulInformation AnalystChirdsak SrichaitonInformation AnalystWongsagon KeawuttungInformation AnalystMIS and Reporting TeamNathanon RatanathamwatSenior Researcher

146、Parinya MingsakulResearcherThansin KlinthanomEconomistWanicha DirekudomsakSenior EconomistPimnara Hirankasi,Ph.D.Head of Research Division and Chief EconomistIndustry TeamTaned MahattanalaiHead of Industry ResearchNarichaya SatafangResearcherKrittabhorn SirichaichingkunEconomistChanatta ThararosRese

147、archerSupasyn ItthiphatwongEconomistPiyanuch SathapongpakdeeSenior Analyst(Transport&Logistics)Narin TunpaiboonSenior Analyst(Power Generation,Modern Trade,Chemicals,Medical Devices)Puttachard LunkamSenior Analyst(Construction Contractors,Construction Materials,Hotels,Industrial Estate)Patchara Klin

148、chuanchunSenior Analyst(Real Estate)Prapan LeenoiAnalyst(ESG)Chaiwat SowcharoensukSenior Analyst(Agriculture)Poonsuk NinkitsaranontSenior Analyst(Healthcare,Mobile Operators)Thian ThiumsakSenior Analyst(Energy,Petrochemicals)Supawat ChoksawatpaisanAnalyst(Automobile,Electronics&Electrical Appliances)Rapeepoom LapmakAnalyst(Agriculture,Food&Beverages)