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1、GWEC|ERM|MISSION CRITICAL:BUILDING THE ASIA PACIFIC WIND ENERGY SUPPLY CHAIN FOR A 1.5C WORLD MISSION CRITICAL:BUILDING THE ASIA PACIFIC WIND ENERGY SUPPLY CHAIN FOR A 1.5C WORLDGLOBAL WIND ENERGY COUNCILGLOBAL WIND ENERGY COUNCILDisclaimer This publication and the material herein are provided“as is

2、.”All reasonable precautions have been taken by the copyright holders to verify the reliability of the material in this publication.However,neither GWEC and ERM,nor any of their officials,agents,data,or other third-party content providers provides a warranty of any kind,either expressed or implied,a

3、nd they accept no responsibility or liability for any consequence of use of the publication or material herein.The information contained herein does not necessarily represent the views of all Members of GWEC and its constituent associations.The designations employed and the presentation of material

4、herein do not imply the expression of any opinion on the part of GWEC or ERM concerning the legal status of any region,country,territory,city,or area or of its authorities,or concerning the delimitation of frontiers or boundaries.Global Wind Energy Council and ERMThis work is subject to copyright.It

5、s content,including text and graphics,may be reproduced in part for non-commercial purposes,with full attribution.Unless otherwise stated,material in this publication may be freely used,shared,copied,reproduced,printed,and/or stored,provided that appropriate acknowledgement is given to the author or

6、ganisations as the source(s)and copyright holders.Material in this publication that is attributed to third parties may be subject to separate terms of use and restrictions,and appropriate permissions from these third parties may need to be secured before any use of such material.Acknowledgments This

7、 report was produced by the Global Wind Energy Council and co-authored by ERM.The lead authors of this report were Feng Zhao,Liming Qiao,Weng Han Tan(GWEC),Breanne Gellatly,Gareth Lewis,Jan Galceran,Raimond Dasalla,Roberta Donkin,Sean Peedle,and Tugce Sahin(ERM).Local content contributors were Stewa

8、rt Mullin(Australia),Akihiko Kurashina and Esther Fang Wen(Japan),Ann Margret Francisco and Mark Hutchinson(Philippines),Janice Cheong(South Korea),Nguyen Van Trang and Thang Vinh Bui(Vietnam),Wanliang Liang(China),Kshitij Madan(India),and Erick Lu(central Asia)from the GWEC team as well as Mike Ott

9、aviano and Richard Clarkson(Australia),Randi Ramadhansjah and Arryati Ramadhani(Indonesia),Takayuki Shibata(Japan),Joseph Park and Jaemin Pyeon(South Korea),and Mark Watson and Tu Dang(Vietnam)from the ERM team.The authors wish to thank Atty.Josefina Patricia Magpale-Asirit as well as Carsten Brinck

10、,and Deepak Chinnapa(Brinckmann)for providing additional content for their selected areas of expertise.Published 25 November 2024 Front cover image Courtesy of Dajin Heavy IndustryDesign Lemonbox www.lemonbox.co.uk GWEC|ERM|MISSION CRITICAL:BUILDING THE ASIA PACIFIC WIND ENERGY SUPPLY CHAIN FOR A 1.

11、5C WORLD Foreword 2Executive Summary 3Chapter 1:APAC Market Status and Wind Supply Chain Outlook 1 1 Introduction and APAC Market Outlook 12 APAC Findings on the Wind Supply Chain Through to 2030 14 Looking Beyond a 2030 APAC Wind Supply Chain 17Chapter 2:Deep Dive into the APAC Wind Supply Chain 19

12、 Turbine Nacelle Assembly 21 Key Components 26 Critical Materials 46 Offshore Wind Balance of Plant 54 Offshore Wind Enablers 63Chapter 3:Country Case Studies 71 Australia 72 Indonesia 80 Japan 87 Philippines 95 South Korea 104 Vietnam 1 1 1 Snapshot on Singapore 121Chapter 4:Recommendations to Secu

13、re APACs Wind Supply Chain 122Appendix 129 Definitions and Terminology 130 About GWEC/ERM 131Table of Contents 1GWEC|ERM|MISSION CRITICAL:BUILDING THE ASIA PACIFIC WIND ENERGY SUPPLY CHAIN FOR A 1.5C WORLDClarification Notes to Reader Definition of the regionAsia Pacific Region includes East Asia,Ce

14、ntral Asia,South Asia,Southeast Asia,and Oceania.Definition of the target markets Although supply chain evaluations and stakeholder consultations were conducted across each APAC market for this study,dedicated case studies were developed for six target countries including Australia,Indonesia,Japan,P

15、hilippines,South Korea,and Vietnam.GWEC.NET 2The inclusion of a global goal to triple renewable energy by 2030 in the final text at COP28 Dubai was a historic landmark for wind and other renewable technologies.However,despite record-breaking growth the global effort to triple renewable energy by 203

16、0 is falling short.The latest tracking report co-released by IRENA,the COP29 Presidency and the Global Renewable Alliance reveals a significant gap in progress to meet the goals set out in the UAE Consensus and keep the 1.5C target within reach.In particular,it is clear that wind is falling behind i

17、n its progress relative to other technologies such as solar PV.Given that wind is the most effective technology in replacing carbon per MW due to its robust capacity factors,underperforming wind risks undermining global climate and energy targets and making the energy transition harder to achieve.Fo

18、r this reason,GWEC is calling for a wide-ranging RE-set of the wind industry,to ensure it is able to fulfil its obligations and seize the enormous business opportunity that lies before us.This means ensuring that the wind sector can invest massively in technology and manufacturing,can scale up the s

19、upply chain,and maintain and enhance winds competitiveness versus other technologies,all while building strong political and social support for our mission.Now it is time for action!We need each region to step up in the worlds journey to a clean,secure,fair and equitable energy transition.The APAC r

20、egion is the worlds largest wind market with more than half(51%)of global total wind power installations by the end of 2023,and is expected to make up 61%of the new additions to be built worldwide in 2024-2030.However,the concentration risk is high in the current APAC wind energy supply chain.Exclud

21、ing China,the APAC region is unlikely to meet the level of wind power installations required to meet the climate target.Scaling up the local supply chain is critical to fill in the gap,unlock the growth potential in the APAC region and secure the supply chain security.Despite geopolitics complicatin

22、g the move to collaboration in the region,political commitment and cooperation is important to accelerate wind growth.Working together helps raise confidence across the region on supply chain investment and allows cooperation on shared challenges including grid systems,ports,vessels and associated s

23、kills.This report,delivered in partnership with ERM,is GWECs first regional wind energy supply chain report.Not only does it take a deep dive across the wind energy supply chain,from nacelles to components to materials to offshore wind balance of plant,but also identifies key industrial strengths an

24、d opportunities across six case study markets which could be scaled up or transitioned to supply the wind industry.Last but not least,this report provides recommendations to policy makers in regard to how to build a reliable,competitive and resilient supply chain in APAC to support the global energy

25、 transition.Action to increase renewable energy generation could not be more urgent,and accelerated wind power installations across APAC countries could play a vital role to achieve the 3x wind power by 2030 target.Working with governments,key partners and key stakeholders in the industry,GWEC and i

26、ts members will continue to help build the APAC wind supply chain for a 1.5C world.ForewordBen BackwellCEO,Global Wind Energy CouncilStrapGWEC|ERM|MISSION CRITICAL:BUILDING THE ASIA PACIFIC WIND ENERGY SUPPLY CHAIN FOR A 1.5C WORLD 3EXECUTIVE SUMMARYGWEC.NETExecutive summary 4Following the historic

27、COP28 pledge to triple global renewable energy capacity by 2030,the drive for wind has continued to gain momentum as reflected in increased installed capacity targets,bespoke policies,and clearer regulations as governments push to meet their climate commitments.International energy agencies agree on

28、 the integral role wind energy needs to play under the tripling renewables scenario.IRENAs World Energy Transitions Outlook foresees 3,040 GW of cumulative onshore wind by 2030 and 494 GW of offshore wind by 2030,equating to approximately 3.5 TW of total wind installed by 20301 The IEAs Net Zero by

29、2050 Scenario(2023)calls for 320 GW of wind installations in 2030,and a total of 2.75 TW of global wind capacity by that time.2 According to GWEC,we need to accelerate annual wind energy installations to more than triple 2023 levels of 117 GW to at least 320 GW over the course of the decade.3 Though

30、 the numbers vary slightly,the message regarding wind energys importance in tackling climate change over the coming years is clear.The Asia Pacific(APAC)region possesses some of the most attractive onshore and offshore wind resource globally and could play a pivotal role in the global energy transit

31、ion.Within the decade,onshore wind capacity could more than double to 1,084 GW.For offshore wind,more than 122 GW of new capacity could come online by 2030,with the cumulative regional total reaching 162 GW by 2030.China is by far the largest onshore and offshore wind market in the region;however,im

32、portant contributions from other key markets including India,Australia,Vietnam,Chinese Taiwan,Japan,South Korea,Kazakhstan,Uzbekistan,the Philippines,and Indonesia4 will be critical to meeting net zero targets.To support the substantial new additions of onshore and offshore wind capacity,urgent scal

33、e up of a robust,resilient supply chain is paramount to enabling country and region-wide renewables targets to be met.APACs current wind energy supply chain is concentrated around China and India(onshore only)and although wind energy supply chain is also identified in other markets in this region an

34、d globally,this study shows that APACs current supply chain setup is not sufficient to build out wind projects to the levels required to meet net zero targets.With a collaborative,cross-border approach to scaling industries in other APAC countries,the APAC supply chain could be grown to meet increas

35、ed regional and global demands while becoming more competitive,diversified,and resilient.APAC industry,government,civil society,and the financial community could collectively drive the systematic change required to build a supply chain able to meet best practice sustainability requirements.This coul

36、d take the form of collaboration with China,India,other APAC markets,or more globally.Through a combination of desktop research,local GWEC and ERM expert knowledge and more than 100 consultations with APAC industry experts,a mapping of the APAC supply chain was undertaken considering both the existi

37、ng supply Mission Critical:Building the Asia Pacific Wind Energy Supply Chain for a 1.5C World 1.IRENA,World Energy Transitions Outlook 2023:1.5C Pathway,2023.2.IEA,Net Zero Roadmap:A Global Pathway to Keep the 1.5 C Goal in Reach,2023.3.GWEC,Global Wind Report,20244.Order based on new additions for

38、ecast for both onshore and offshore capacity between 2024 and 2030.Existing capability with potential to supply regionwideExisting capability with potential to supply countrywideTransition capability with potential to supply regionwideTransition capability with potential to supply countrywideNo capa

39、bility,but can rely on regional cooperationCriticalMaterialsCastingsNacelleAssemblyGearboxPowerConvertersGeneratorTowersBladesChinaIndiaSouth KoreaVietnamPhilippinesIndonesiaAustraliaIndiaChinaSouth KoreaVietnamJapanPhilippinesIndonesiaAustraliaAPAC onshore wind supply chain potential by 2030Potenti

40、al opportunity for transition and cooperationCurrent global onshore wind supply chain flowStrong domestic and strong regional supply chainStrong domestic and limited regional supply chainLimited domestic and regional supply chainMinimal supply chain and expect to be a net importerNacelles,blades,gea

41、rboxes,generators,power converter,towers,castings,critical materialImported to APACNacelles,Blades,critical MaterialsExported toother regionsJapanAPAC offshore wind supply chain potential by 2030Existing capability with potential to supply regionwideExisting capability with potential to supply count

42、rywideTransition capability with potential to supply regionwideTransition capability with potential to supply countrywideNo capability,but can rely on regional cooperationChinaSouth KoreaChinese TaiwanVietnamSingaporeJapanThe PhilippinesIndonesiaAustraliaCriticalMaterialsPowerConvertersPortsWTIVsOth

43、erVesselsGearboxGeneratorBladesNacelleAssemblyCastingsTowersFoundationsCablesChinaChinese TaiwanSouth KoreaVietnamJapanThe PhilippinesIndonesiaAustraliaSingaporePotential opportunity for transition and cooperationCurrent global onshore wind supply chain flowStrong domestic and strong regional supply

44、 chainStrong domestic and limited regional supply chainLimited domestic and regional supply chainMinimal supply chain and expect to be a net importerNacelles,blades,generators,towers,castings,critical material,foundations,cables,WTIVs,Other vessels Imported to APACNacelles,blades,gearboxes,generator

45、s,Critical Materials,cables,WTIVs,Other vessels(cable laying)Exported toother regionsGWEC|ERM|MISSION CRITICAL:BUILDING THE ASIA PACIFIC WIND ENERGY SUPPLY CHAIN FOR A 1.5C WORLD 7chain capabilities and their expected growth as compared to recent GWEC market forecasts.We conducted a supply chain bot

46、tleneck analysis for onshore and offshore wind to consider gaps until 2030 across nacelle assembly,key turbine components(gearboxes,generators,blades,power converters,towers,and castings),critical materials(rare earth elements,carbon fibre,steel,concrete,copper),balance of plant(foundations and cabl

47、es),as well as offshore wind enablers(wind turbine installation vessels and ports).Regional demand for nacelle assembly,key components,offshore wind balance of plant and offshore wind enablers5 can be met by known APAC suppliers until 2030,apart from offshore wind gearboxes and blades where minor bo

48、ttlenecks6 are expected in 2029 and 2030,respectively.As many suppliers are based in China and India(onshore wind),this study also looked at the impact of concentration risk,which revealed that without Chinese and Indian supply and demand,the region will start seeing major bottlenecks immediately.Wi

49、thout China,the APAC region could start seeing immediate supply chain bottlenecks for onshore wind castings as well as offshore wind gearboxes,generators,blades,and power converters.Without India and China,there will be immediate onshore wind bottlenecks across all key components apart from towers.T

50、o meet the growing regional demand for wind(with or without China and India),this study has identified key industrial strengths across Australia,Indonesia,Japan,Philippines,Singapore,South Korea,and Vietnam which could be scaled up or transitioned to supply the wind industry.As shown in the onshore

51、and offshore wind maps on pages 5 and 6,the APAC region has a wealth of capabilities within existing companies with the potential to be scaled where they are existing wind suppliers or transitioned where they have operations that could be pivoted to the wind industry.Four key challenges emerged thro

52、ugh our industry consultations which should be addressed to scale up the supply chain and prevent the inevitable slowdown of wind installations that will ensue.1.Volatile policy and market demand are preventing industry from adjusting and scaling production capacity.Parts of the supply chain are now

53、 loss-making and unable to commit to future production capacity,largely due to policy and regulatory barriers that lead to heightened uncertainty for project investments.In addition to setting targets and auction schedules,suppliers are looking for government commitments to project awards and the ce

54、rtainty that planned projects will move forward on reasonable timelines.In some cases,Tier 2 and Tier 3 suppliers are lacking the information needed to effectively assess the business case for suppling the wind industry(see recommendations 1,3,5 and 6).2.Lack of coordinated investments in large infr

55、astructure such as grids,ports,and roads as well as major equipment like vessels are impeding regional connectivity and trade.Critical infrastructure is needed to support the project installations scheduled for this decade requiring regional level long-term planning and investment.Large equipment su

56、ch as vessels are Volatile policy and market demandHistorically volatile industry demand,driven by inconsistent support schemes,COVID,inflation and raw materials prices.Suppliers are unable to commit to future production capacityLack of coordinated infrastructure investmentGrids,roads and ports are

57、needed to support the project installations scheduled for this decade requiring regional level long-term planning and investment1234LocalisationPoltical pressure around supply chain security and inflexible local content targets have driven up the cost and caused the delay of deliveryChallenges for s

58、upply chaingrowthNeed for standardisationRace for larger wind turbines continues in APAC region,especially in China,which makes standardisation and industrialisationan unchievable taskChallenges for supply chain growth5.Key components(onshore wind and offshore wind)include gearboxes,generators,blade

59、s,power converters,towers,and castings.Balance of Plant(offshore wind)includes foundations and cables.Offshore wind enablers include vessels,ports,and workforce.6.Minor bottlenecks are when supply is within 10%of demand,major bottlenecks are when supply is more than 10%under demand.7.Transition indu

60、stries are those with operations that could be pivoted toward the wind industry e.g.,automotive,electronic,shipbuilding,etc.Executive summaryExecutive summaryCategoryAssemblyKey ComponentsCritical MaterialsOffshore Wind Balance of PlantOffshore Wind EnablersSubjectNacellesGearboxesGeneratorsBladesPo

61、wer ConvertersTowersCastingsRare EarthCarbon FibreSteel PlateConcreteCopperFoundationsCablesVesselsPortsWorkforce 8APAC onshore level criticality9 ONW markets with potential to scale up/transition10AUS,PH,SK,VTIDN,JP,PH,SKJP,SK,VTJP,SK,VTJP,SK,VTAllAUS,IDN,PH,VTJP,VTAUS,IDN,PH,VTAUS,IDN,PH,VTAPAC of

62、fshore level criticality OFW markets with potential to scale up/transition JP,PH,SK,VTIDN,JP,PH,SK JP,SK,VTJP,SK,VTJP,SK,VTIDN JP,PH,SK,VTAUS,IDN PH,VTJP,VTAUS,IDN PH,VTAUS,IDN PH,VTAll+SGAll+SGAll+SGKey findingsl Onshore nacelle assembly is concentrated in China(85%)and to a lesser extent India.Sim

63、ilarly,offshore,assembly is predominantly Chinese(87%)with Korea and Japan expecting to start in 2026.Turbine OEMs prefer to set up nacelle assembly sites where there are significant pipelines.l Most onshore gearboxes are produced in China(85%)and to a lesser extent India.Offshore gearbox supply is

64、more constrained;technical threshold is high although diversification is possible.l High concentration risk for generators depending on China who supply 100%OFW and 90%ONW.l Presently APAC depends almost fully on China and India(onshore only)for blade supply.Japan,South Korea,and Vietnam have potent

65、ial to increase capacity.l Most power converters are Chinese(92%onshore and 98%offshore),but there are opportunities for countries with electrical industries to pivot toward wind supply.l Due to lower entry barriers,towers and foundations have been produced in multiple markets.l Concentration risk i

66、s high for castings,especially offshore;supplied almost exclusively by China.l Industries with relevant skills e.g.,O&G,automotive,electronic could pivot to supply wind components.l A regional supply chain could enable more resilient access to needed components while ensuring continued trade and reg

67、ional linkages to enable flexibility and address demand volatility.l General availability of needed materials at the regional level with high reliance on China.Australia and Indonesia have the potential to pivot and increase the regional supply of critical materials.l Lack of geographic diversificat

68、ion,reliability,and affordability of critical minerals are constantly threatened by economic,political,or geopolitical uncertainty as well as high demand from the EU.l Major centralisation for refining rare earth elements,with close to no capacity outside China and Malaysia.First alternative refiner

69、ies expected in 2028.l Sourcing challenge for carbon fibre has been resolved with major capacity expansion made in China.Japan is a global leader in carbon fibre production and potentially Vietnam could be ready to support regional demand.l Due to low entry barriers,fixed foundations are produced in

70、 multiple APAC markets.l Floating may have supply gaps as technology evolves.l Cable expertise exists in APAC,primarily SK,JP,and China.Cable supply is expected to exceed the regional demand when new facilities come online.l More WTIVs with sufficient crane capacity/hook height are needed.l WTIV bot

71、tlenecks are exasperated by cabotage rules.Vessel investments could be accelerated with more access to a regional market.l Shortages are expected for heavy-lift vessels able to lift XXL monopiles and cable laying vessels as few exist outside China.l Limited suitable ports outside of China.Some plan

72、to pivot,but significant investment and long lead times are required to support the transition.l A wide range of workforce skills exist throughout the region.Recommendations Urgently scaling up a regional supply chain is key to reaching APACs targeted wind installationsExisting trade agreements can

73、be leveraged to scale up supply chainsCredible markets and committed pipelines are needed to trigger supply chain investmentsSupply chain capacity building outside auctions could boost resilience and reduce price pressureInternational collaboration to scale up the floating wind supply chain could st

74、art nowTransition industries could expand or pivot operations to fill wind industry bottlenecksThe wind industry must continue to standardise and industrialise=APAC bottleneck risk by 2030 =no APAC bottleneck risk by 20308.Workforce is addressed in GWEC&GWO:Global Wind Workforce Outlook 2024-2028.9.

75、Criticality is based on when a bottleneck appears in the region considering both full APAC supply chain availability and accounting for concentration risk(i.e.,without China and/or India).10.Focus is on the six target countries and Singapore where they could offer capabilities to expand or transitio

76、n into wind by 2030(this excludes major markets of China,Chinese Taiwan,and India).Countries are listed in alphabetical order AUS=Australia,IDN=Indonesia,JP=Japan,PH=Philippines,SG=Singapore,SK=South Korea,VT=Vietnam.All=the six target countries.GWEC|ERM|MISSION CRITICAL:BUILDING THE ASIA PACIFIC WI

77、ND ENERGY SUPPLY CHAIN FOR A 1.5C WORLD 9inefficiently used as localisation restrictions prevent a more efficient regional use between markets(see recommendations 2 and 3).3.Political pressure around supply chain security and inflexible local content targets have driven up the cost and caused the de

78、lay of delivery.The energy crisis of 2021 made energy resilience a core political theme,placing the focus on energy supply.Since then,the resilience agenda has expanded to encompass supply chains and industry.This has prompted varying industrial strategies from new wind markets to countries/regions

79、with a fragmented supply chain footprint and countries with an at-scale supply chain.Thus far,many markets in the APAC region have focused on localisation of the supply chain to maximise the perceived benefits to the local economy.However,restrictive local content requirements in some markets have l

80、ed to problems such as increased project capital expenditures and delayed delivery of components and eventually the projects(see recommendations 2 and 4).4.Race for larger wind turbines continues in APAC region,especially in China,which makes standardisation and industrialisation an unachievable tas

81、k.The race for ever larger turbines comes at a cost to suppliers challenged to support new technology with shortened product development time and without sufficient time for thorough testing.The lack of industry standardisation is pushing up costs and adding barriers to regional collaboration(see re

82、commendation 7).This study shows unequivocally that the development of a domestic supply chain will not be sufficient to support forecasted demand over the coming years but that a regional approach could enable the accelerated growth needed regionally and globally.Individual countries within APAC co

83、uld leverage existing strengths to service the wider region and learn to lean on each other to cover any shortcoming to develop a symbiotic,mutually beneficial supply chain.Governments,project developers and suppliers throughout the wind energy value chain should engage in purposeful collaboration t

84、o prevent bottlenecks and achieve the ambitious wind energy buildout to 2030 and beyond.Seven key recommendations have been presented to achieve the necessary supply chain scale-up to meet the APAC wind energy demand through to 2030.Recommendations Recommendation 1:Regional supply chain scale-up is

85、needed urgently if APAC is to meet 2030 targeted wind installations.Given that the APAC region has a healthy pipeline of onshore and offshore wind projects,urgent action is requested of governments and industry to develop strategies and make necessary investments in time to fill the foreseen onshore

86、 and offshore wind supply chain bottlenecks expected to start this decade.This will enable the countries in the region to transform the regions economy while offering the scale of renewables that the world needs to triple renewable energy by 2030.Supply chain is fundamental to unlocking this untappe

87、d renewable energy potential and countries could consider collaboration across borders to leverage the industrial strengths of each market,ensuring new project demands can be met using the best of the regional supply.This type of regional supply chain scaling of existing or pivot industries could br

88、ing greater economic returns for the entire region from working together to build out a larger volume of projects.Recommendation 2:Existing trade agreements can be leveraged to scale up supply chains.Trade policy should aim to build competitive industries,not push higher costs onto end users.Policy

89、measures which unnecessarily restrict trade and foreign investment could lead to a slowdown in deployment that could put the energy transition in jeopardy.Supply chain capacity utilisation remains key to cost reduction and is only possible if resources can be shared across regions,with competitive c

90、ost positions and limited trade barriers.APAC countries could consider leveraging existing regional trade agreements to build a marketplace that encourages cross-border collaboration,diversification of supply,and provides easier access to the large-scale regional demand needed to justify key investm

91、ents to strategically grow each markets supply chain capacities and capabilities.Recommendation 3:Credible markets and committed pipelines are needed to trigger supply chain Executive summaryGWEC.NET 10investments.Credible pipelines and committed projects are needed for industry to justify the large

92、 investments required to scale up the existing supply chain and transition business toward wind supply.Industry is looking for governments to back up their wind targets with 15-year wind installation schedules supported by straight-forward regulatory policies and accelerated project awards to unlock

93、 large supply chain investments.Clear regulatory roadmaps for leasing and offtake processes will increase pipeline certainty driving investor confidence.The inclusion of wind energy targets in national energy plans and nationally determined contributions can provide policy continuity which will buil

94、d industry confidence.Recommendation 4:Public support for supply chain capacity building outside of auctions could boost resilience and sustainability while reducing price pressure on developers,especially for near term projects.Governments could consider taking a longer-term view on supporting supp

95、ly chain capacity building outside auction evaluation criteria to reduce price pressure during auctions,which is ultimately paid for by households,commercial and industrial consumers,cities,and other consumers of electricity.Although environmental sustainability could be considered among auction cri

96、teria,the path to building more sustainable supply chains requires long-term coordination across many stakeholders to drive the systemic change needed to ensure that sustainability targets drive responsible procurement.Countries will benefit from public investment in supply chain growth,emerging tec

97、hnologies,longer-term industrialisation plans,and workforce training increasing attractiveness for domestic investors and industry(including companies with businesses that could transition to wind)entering the market.Recommendation 5:Transition industries could be encouraged to expand or pivot opera

98、tions to fill wind industry supply chain bottlenecks.APAC industries with the potential to transition(and in many cases also decarbonise)operations include shipbuilding,offshore oil and gas/EPCs,automotive,composite,and electrical/electronic manufacturing.Companies in these fields are considered to

99、have skills and operations that could potentially be pivoted toward the wind supply chain.Recommendation 6:International collaboration to scale up the floating wind supply chain could start now.Floating wind will start to dominate certain APAC markets as it continues its path toward commercialisatio

100、n,requiring its own supply chain to be ready.Building on the regional supply chain proposed in recommendation 1,a collaborative approach could be used already to build a floating wind supply chain ready to meet the expected growth within and outside the APAC region.This can include early planning wi

101、th governments and learning from experiences from overseas.Governments could start looking at support schemes which will fit with the market fundamentals in the individual APAC floating markets to unlock the regions huge floating wind potential.Recommendation 7:The wind industry must continue to sta

102、ndardise and industrialise.Greater alignment on industry standards(e.g.,health and safety,ESG,engineering design codes and environmental sustainability)between APAC countries could improve efficiencies and enhance regional and global collaboration.Governments could explore adopting international bes

103、t practices on industry standards as financing will have minimum requirements that need to be observed.Adopting industry standards could provide a strategic avenue for APAC wind supply chain manufacturers to access global export markets and opportunities for companies that run responsible sourcing a

104、nd procurement.Suppliers looking to meet financing requirements to upscale manufacturing or set up new bases should increase transparency and traceability to ensure oversight of the complete process,from raw material procurement to final product delivery.Turbines are an important example of the need

105、 to standardise and industrialise.The race for larger turbines has left insufficient time for thorough testing,resulting in serial defects in the field.Rapid innovation on turbine and component design has not allowed for industrialisation of existing technologies.Executive summaryStrapGWEC|ERM|MISSI

106、ON CRITICAL:BUILDING THE ASIA PACIFIC WIND ENERGY SUPPLY CHAIN FOR A 1.5C WORLD 11CHAPTER 1:APAC MARKET STATUS AND WIND SUPPLY CHAIN OUTLOOK GWEC.NETChapter 1:APAC Market Status and Wind Supply Chain Outlook 12COP28 strengthened the global drive to accelerate renewables,with agreement from 133 count

107、ries to double energy efficiency and triple renewables capacity by 2030.11 Action to increase clean energy generation globally could not be more urgent,and accelerated deployment of wind energy across Asia Pacific(APAC)countries is expected to play a critical role.The Global Wind Energy Council(GWEC

108、)estimates that annual wind installation must increase three-fold this decade to meet net zero benchmarks,and this could be driven by the APAC region which already holds more than half(51%)of the worlds total wind power installations by the end of 2023 and is expected to make up 61%of new additions

109、worldwide between 2024 and 2030.Although most new wind installation will be driven by China and India,the rest of APAC may want to consider following suit to meet national wind targets and provide the supply chain with the confidence needed to build capacity and fill the foreseen bottlenecks current

110、ly expected to slow the industry.Despite the potential in the region and ambition of individual countries to accelerate onshore and offshore wind deployment;this report will provide evidence that,without coordinated and strategic investment in a regional supply chain,bottlenecks will further increas

111、e hampering the needed acceleration of renewables.This report provides a comprehensive view of the APAC supply chain capabilities out to 2030,starting with identification of where regional and domestic bottlenecks are most severe,moving to a deep dive into the industrial strengths and opportunities

112、of the six target countries in this report Australia,Indonesia,Japan,Philippines,South Korea and Vietnam and substantiating the role of regional collaboration in closing near-future supply chain gaps.Establishment of a symbiotic supply chain ecosystem can allow countries to leverage existing industr

113、ial strengths and receive support from surrounding countries where they may fall short.Leveraging regional collaboration for the greater prosperity of all countries will also enable APAC to ramp up to the levels required of the Global Renewables and Energy Efficiency Pledge.This report presents a bo

114、ttom-up APAC supply chain assessment and provides recommendations based on more than 100 consultations with industry and government stakeholders across the region conducted in Q3 2024.During the consultations,stakeholders were asked to review the findings and provide opinions and recommendations for

115、 solving supply chain bottlenecks where gaps were identified.Although the focus has been on the six target countries,we have also included viewpoints from stakeholders in other APAC markets(e.g.,China,India,Chinese Taiwan,and Singapore)to provide a comprehensive view of the region.Onshore wind APAC

116、market outlook to 2030APACs total operational onshore wind(ONW)capacity will more than double to exceed 1 TW by Introduction and APAC Market Outlook Onshore wind installation forecast up to 2030 in the Asia Pacific region(MW)020,000202420252026202720282029203040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000Capacity

117、(MW)Cumulative Capacity(MW)0200,000400,000ChinaVietnamSouth KoreaIndiaJapanIndonesiaAustraliaThe PhilippinesOther APACCumulative Capcity(MW)600,000800,0001000,0001,200,000Source:GWEC,Brinckmann,202411.COP28(2023).https:/ CRITICAL:BUILDING THE ASIA PACIFIC WIND ENERGY SUPPLY CHAIN FOR A 1.5C WORLD 13

118、2030.Within the APAC region,current GWEC projections show that the cumulative installed onshore wind capacity will more than double to 1,084 GW by 2030,from 466 GW at the end of 2023.This growth is led primarily by China,which is expected to add over 500 GW of onshore wind by 2030 on top of the over

119、 400 GW that is already operational.This forecasted additional capacity in China equates to over 80%of the newbuild onshore wind capacity in this timeframe.India follows with an additional 45 GW by 2030,as the country has grown to be the fourth largest onshore wind market globally with a target to i

120、nstall 140 GW of wind by 2030.Australia and Vietnam are also expected to be significant contributors,installing 15 GW and 12 GW(including intertidal)in the same period,respectively.Annual installed capacity in the APAC region will steadily increase throughout the remainder of this decade from 79 GW

121、in 2024 to 98 GW by 2030.Offshore wind APAC market outlook to 2030Offshore wind(OFW)development will increase this decade across major APAC markets.The period leading up to 2030 is an exciting time for the offshore wind industry in APAC,with many markets beyond China and Chinese Taiwan expected to m

122、ake significant strides.Markets including Japan and South Korea have already held offshore wind auctions with the first awarded projects expected to come online from 2026.Australia has also awarded its first feasibility licences to allow developers to begin site investigations;the Philippines has an

123、nounced plans to begin the bidding process for its first offtake auction tender for offshore wind by the end of 2024,and Vietnam is developing a process to support its first offshore wind projects,working towards the targets of 6 GW of offshore wind by 2030 and 70 91.5 GW by 2050.From 2024 to 2030,o

124、perational offshore wind capacity in APAC is forecasted to increase sixfold.Over 120 GW of new offshore wind capacity is forecasted to be installed throughout the APAC region between 2024 and 2030,with the cumulative regional total reaching 160 GW by 2030.As with onshore wind,China is the largest of

125、fshore wind market with over 130 GW of capacity expected to be operational by the end of the decade.Other key markets include South Korea with 6 GW and Japan with over 4 GW expected to be operational by 2030.The annual installed capacity is projected to increase rapidly over the coming years with th

126、e current 11 GW increasing to 21 GW by 2030.Offshore wind installation forecast up to 2030 in the Asia Pacific region(MW)020242025202620272028202920305,00010,00015,00020,00025,000Capacity(MW)Cumulative Capacity(MW)040,00080,00060,00020,000100,000120,000140,000160,000180,000ChinaTaiwan areaJapanSouth

127、 KoreaIndiaCumulative Capacity(MW)Source:GWEC,2024GWEC.NET 14APAC wind supply and demand analysis Onshore and offshore wind construction in APAC is expected to accelerate through 2030 requiring a robust,resilient supply chain to keep up with the forecasted regional demand.This report considers key o

128、nshore and offshore wind components,comparing the supply and demand levels for the target countries and the APAC region in isolation.Supply data was calculated from the bottom-up,based on desktop research of existing and planned supplier capacities.Demand data is based on GWECs future forecasting of

129、 onshore and offshore wind installations.12 Below are the key assumptions made to conduct the bottleneck analysis.l The bottleneck analysis assumes a closed market with imports and exports of components between the APAC region only,i.e.,APAC supply needs to meet APAC demand with no flow of goods to

130、or from the rest of the world.l There are no trade restrictions within APAC.l The demand for onshore and offshore wind components has been assumed to be concentrated entirely within the year of Supply and demand analysis of key wind components in the APAC region(including all APAC suppliers)Componen

131、tUnit2024202520262027202820292030ONW Nacelle AssemblyMW79013825158384090572917909244098380ONW GearboxMW79013825158384090572917909244098380ONW GeneratorMW79013825158384090572917909244098380ONW BladesMW79013825158384090572917909244098380ONW Power convertersMW79013825158384090572917909244098380ONW Towe

132、rsunits13326125881270712994130891227212790ONW Castingstonnes963959100668310228481104978111983811277681200236OFW Nacelle AssemblyMW11136137401756217805198852098021070OFW GearboxMW11136137401756217805198852098021070OFW GeneratorMW11136137401756217805198852098021070OFW BladesMW1113613740175621780519885

133、2098021070OFW Power ConvertersMW11136137401756217805198852098021070OFW Towersunits1137134314391391141014041347OFW Castingstonnes197107243198310844315149351965371346372939OFW Cableskm3959488562436330706974587490Fixed Foundationsunits1136133714061359138013641242Floating Foundationsunits1633323040105WT

134、IVMW11136137401756217805198852098021070l Supply exceeds demand l Minor Bottleneck-Supply is 10%below demand l Values in the cells indicate that years demand for a componentChapter 1:APAC Market Status and Wind Supply Chain Outlook 12.The near-term wind market outlook(20242026),built using a bottom-u

135、p approach,is based on GWEC Market Intelligences global wind project database,which covers projects currently under construction,global auction results and announced domestic tenders.For the medium-term market outlook(20272030),a top-down approach was used alongside existing project pipelines.This c

136、onsiders existing policies and medium/long-term national offshore wind targets.It assumes status quo on government policy,low to mid-industry interest,and average economic conditions.APAC Findings on the Wind Supply Chain Through to 2030GWEC|ERM|MISSION CRITICAL:BUILDING THE ASIA PACIFIC WIND ENERGY

137、 SUPPLY CHAIN FOR A 1.5C WORLD 15commercial operation of the respective windfarms.l Where quantitative data regarding the supply capabilities of a facility was not available,either through publicly available information or consultations with stakeholders,their capacities have been estimated by compa

138、rison to similar facilities within the region and/or other markets.The values included in the tables below reflect the annual demand for each component in the APAC region until 2030.The colour of each cell Supply and demand analysis of key wind components in the APAC region(excluding Chinese supply

139、and demand)ComponentUnit2024202520262027202820292030ONW Nacelle AssemblyMW9013125151384015572167901744018380ONW GearboxMW9013125151384015572167901744018380ONW GeneratorMW9013125151384015572167901744018380ONW BladesMW9013125151384015572167901744018380ONW Power ConvertersMW9013125151384015572167901744

140、018380ONW Towersunits2557325533743619371434493378ONW Castingstonnes109959152683168848189978204838212768224236OFW Nacelle AssemblyMW1136174025622805488549805070OFW GearboxMW1136174025622805488549805070OFW GeneratorMW1136174025622805488549805070OFW BladesMW1136174025622805488549805070OFW Power Convert

141、ersMW1136174025622805488549805070OFW Towersunits137143189237339338347OFW Castingstonnes20107307984534449649864658814689739Fixed Foundationsunits137143181230315298272Floating Foundationsunits0087244075Cableskm404619911997173717701802WTIVMW1136174025622805488549805070Supply and demand analysis of key

142、onshore wind components in the APAC region(excluding Chinese and Indian supply and demand)ComponentUnit2024202520262027202820292030ONW NacelleMW48137015774084729290994010880ONW GearboxMW48137015774084729290994010880ONW GeneratorMW48137015774084729290994010880ONW BladesMW48137015774084729290994010880

143、ONW Power ConvertersMW48137015774084729290994010880ONW Towersunits1057142214681530163116631711ONW Castingstonnes587198558394428103358113338121268132736l Supply exceeds demand l Minor Bottleneck-Supply is 10%below demand l Values in the cells indicate that years demand for a componentChapter 1:APAC M

144、arket Status and Wind Supply Chain Outlook GWEC.NET 16reflects the status of the APAC supply chain relative to this demand.Where the current planned supply capacities for the component is greater than the forecasted demand,and thus no bottleneck is expected,this is shown in green.Amber indicates tha

145、t the demand slightly exceeds the supply levels,by under 10%.Finally,red denotes that the demand exceeds supply by over 10%and therefore there is risk of a significant bottleneck.Under this studys assumption that APAC demand is met with supply from the region,the earliest bottlenecks are expected in

146、 2029 and 2030 for gearboxes and blades with demand falling to within 10%of the regional demand.This picture changes quickly when Chinese supply and demand is removed from the analysis,apart from onshore gearboxes,towers,and foundations.In 2024,China contributed 89%of onshore wind demand and 91%of o

147、ffshore wind demand.Whilst this share is reduced to 81%for onshore and 69%for offshore by 2030 due to growth in other APAC markets,China will continue to commission and supply the majority of wind energy capacity in APAC,holding a dominant position across nearly the entire supply chain.Indian supply

148、 chain is quite critical to meet onshore wind demand for components,and without China and India the rest of the APAC region would suffer extreme supply shortages across all main components,apart from towers,unless filled by the global market.China and India will play critical roles in the present an

149、d future supply chain;however,even with these two powerhouses,bottlenecks are expected unless our target markets ramp up.With increased regional cooperation,APAC could have a more diversified and efficient supply chain to derisk regional installation rollout as project installations increase.Markets

150、Nacelle AssemblyKey ComponentsCritical MaterialsBalance of PlantOffshore Wind EnablersOther CapabilitiesTransition or Pivot IndustriesChinaFull supply chainIndiaOnshoreOnshore full supply chainRare earths,steel,concrete,copperO&GAustraliaTower componentsRare earths,steel,copperWorkforcePorts,mining,

151、cables,shipbuilding(service vessels)IndonesiaTowersRare earths,steel,concrete,copperFoundationsWTIV,workforceO&G,mining,automotive(castings),EPCJapanOffshoreOnshore gearboxes,towersCarbon fibreFoundations,CablesWTIV,portsBearings,switchgear,substations,service vesselsElectrical component manufacturi

152、ng(generators,power converters),automotiveSouth KoreaOnshore and offshoreGearbox,onshore blades,towersSteel(production not iron ore),concreteFoundations,cablesWTIV,ports,workforceForgings,transformersElectrical component manufacturing,automotive,shipbuildingPhilippinesRare earths,steel,concrete,copp

153、erCablesWorkforce(seafarers)Service vesselsPorts,mining,shipbuilding(floating foundations),EPC,automotive(gearbox,castings)VietnamTowers,power converters,generatorsRare earths,steel,concrete,copper,carbon fibreFoundations,cablesWorkforceService vessels,onshore wind EPCPorts,mining,cables,O&G,shipbui

154、lding,automotive(castings)SingaporeFoundationsWTIVFloating platforms,substations,service vessels,project finance,mooringsO&G,shipbuildingChinese TaiwanOffshoreBlades,towers,castingsCarbon fibre,steel,concreteFoundations,cablesWTIV,ports,workforceService vessels.Resins(blades)Electrical component man

155、ufacturingOverview of existing APAC capabilitiesChapter 1:APAC Market Status and Wind Supply Chain Outlook GWEC|ERM|MISSION CRITICAL:BUILDING THE ASIA PACIFIC WIND ENERGY SUPPLY CHAIN FOR A 1.5C WORLD 17APAC market capabilities and transition industries The rapid increase in demand for wind installa

156、tions offers huge opportunities for suppliers looking to expand existing capacities,develop new capabilities and pivot related industries towards the wind industry.China and India will continue to play a key role in supplying APAC wind projects;however,for the wind industry to thrive,other APAC mark

157、ets should also invest in their supply chains.The table above summarises the capabilities identified during the consultation phases,as well as non-wind industries that have the potential to transition their businesses to also supply the wind supply chain.Please see the specific country chapters for

158、more details on specific strengths,opportunities and recommendations for each of the target markets.Key findings Turbine Nacelle Assembly Onshore Nacelle Assembly:The impact of removing the supply of onshore nacelle assembly from both China and India indicates a strong regional dependency on these s

159、uppliers to meet the demand of APAC,if imports from other regions are not considered.Including supply from China and India,no bottlenecks are expected through to 2030;however,without supply from China and India,the region will face bottlenecks immediately through to 2030.There are existing onshore n

160、acelle assembly capabilities in South Korea and capabilities in Vietnam that could be transitioned to support the region.However,other countries like Australia and the Philippines have been flagged as having the potential industries to partner with international OEMs to meet domestic needs.Offshore

161、Nacelle Assembly:Minor bottlenecks13 for offshore nacelle assembly are expected in 2030 in the APAC region(excluding China).Bottlenecks are expected to become more significant from 2030,as demand increases.When including Chinese nacelle assembly,no bottlenecks are expected across APAC through to 203

162、0.There are planned offshore nacelle assembly capabilities in Japan and South Korea,and capabilities that could be transitioned in Vietnam.Key components Gearboxes:In the APAC region,supply for onshore wind gearboxes is sufficient to meet demand through to 2030.When the supply and demand from China

163、is removed,there are no bottlenecks.However,when the supply and demand from China and India are removed,there is a major bottleneck14 throughout the whole forecast period.For offshore wind,the APAC region is expected to face minor shortages of gearboxes towards the end of the decade.However,bottlene

164、cks are significantly increased when supply from China is removed,causing major bottlenecks throughout the whole forecast period.Gearboxes are currently manufactured predominantly in China,India,Japan,and South Korea.Countries with an automotive industry like Indonesia and the Philippines could cons

165、ider the potential for a transition to supply of gearboxes,but investors should be aware that the technical threshold and risk for gearbox production is high compared with other build-to-print components.Generators:The supply of generators in APAC is concentrated in China for both onshore and offsho

166、re wind applications.No bottlenecks for offshore wind generators are expected when including Chinese suppliers in the analysis.Excluding China,the APAC region will start seeing gaps in generator supply starting in 2026 for onshore wind and immediately for offshore wind.When removing China and India

167、from the scenario,bottlenecks for onshore generators are expected immediately.Generators can be provided by Vietnam for onshore applications,but,there is still a large supply chain gap outside China.To improve diversification of supply Japan and Korea could also potentially transition electrical man

168、ufacturing toward increased supply of generators.Chapter 1:APAC Market Status and Wind Supply Chain Outlook 13.Minor bottleneck means supply is within 10%of the demand in a given year 14.Major bottleneck means supply is greater than 10%of demand in a given yearLooking at a 2030 APAC Wind Supply Chai

169、n and BeyondGWEC.NET 18Blades:Within the APAC region,over 98%of total blade production is in China and India.Starting in 2029 for onshore wind and immediately for offshore wind,the APAC region without China will start seeing gaps in blade supply.Blades are expected to continue to be supplied by Indi

170、a and China through to 2030;however,a new blade facility has been announced in Vietnam to support the Vietnamese market and growth in this region.Beyond 2030,we expect other countries to build capabilities,especially countries with large pipelines.Power Converters:When sourcing from within the APAC

171、region,projects are heavily reliant on Chinese power converters to meet on and offshore wind demand.Starting in 2025 for onshore wind and immediately for offshore wind,the APAC region excluding China will start seeing bottlenecks in power converter supply.Going forward,Vietnam has the potential to e

172、xpand existing capabilities and increase exports of power converters across APAC.South Korea,Japan,the Philippines and Indonesia could leverage capabilities in electrical component manufacturing to transition towards the supply of power converters.Towers:For both on and offshore wind,towers are not

173、expected to be a bottleneck when considered regionally.Castings:China leads casting manufacturing within APAC and is crucial to meeting the regions on and offshore wind demand.Starting immediately for onshore wind and in 2025 for offshore wind,the APAC region without China will start seeing gaps in

174、castings supply.India has a local casting supply chain,but capacity for the large-casted items used in offshore wind is missing at present.Other markets within APAC(Vietnam,the Philippines and Indonesia)could leverage existing capabilities in their automotive industries and expand capabilities to tr

175、ansition to supply castings for onshore and offshore wind across the region.Offshore Balance of PlantFoundations:Foundation supply is healthy across offshore wind;no bottlenecks are expected for fixed foundations through to 2030 in this region even when the Chinese supply chain is excluded.For float

176、ing foundations,no bottlenecks are expected across APAC.However,when China is excluded,major bottlenecks are expected in 2026,before additional supply capacity is due to come online,and again in 2030 when demand increases to 75 units.Cables:When considered regionally,no bottlenecks are expected for

177、cables throughout the forecast period,even when excluding supply from China.Offshore Enablers Wind turbine installation vessels(WTIVs):No WTIV shortages are seen across the APAC region when assuming free movement of vessels between APAC countries.However,when excluding China,bottlenecks are seen fro

178、m 2028.There could be earlier instances of shortages due to cabotage rules in Japan and South Korea,and increasing sizes of turbines making some vessels unsuitable.With vessels from Europe and Japan available to support,no bottleneck is expected for the Chinese Taiwan offshore wind market,but the si

179、tuation is likely to change if those foreign WTIVs are required to support the growth in their home markets.In addition to WTIVs,South Korea,Singapore,the Philippines,Vietnam and Australia could leverage their shipbuilding industries to support the manufacturing of offshore wind service vessels.Port

180、s:The availability of offshore wind marshalling has been omitted from the supply and demand analysis of key wind components in the APAC region table above as this is best considered at a market-by-market level(see Chapter 2 for a more detailed discussion)in APAC.In certain regions such as Northern E

181、urope,there have been cases where marshalling ports are used to support construction in neighbouring countries,but this is unlikely to be a feasible solution in APAC where the geographical distances involved are much greater.Chapter 1:APAC Market Status and Wind Supply Chain Outlook GWEC|ERM|MISSION

182、 CRITICAL:BUILDING THE ASIA PACIFIC WIND ENERGY SUPPLY CHAIN FOR A 1.5C WORLD 19CHAPTER 2:DEEP DIVE INTO THE APAC WIND SUPPLY CHAINOver the last decade,China has emerged as not only the worlds leading wind turbine manufacturing base but also as the largest production hub for key components and mater

183、ials.As the second-largest APAC hub for onshore wind turbine assembly and key components production,India has gained an increasingly prominent role in the global onshore wind supply chain.In addition to the predominantly Chinese and Indian wind suppliers,APAC also relies on regional suppliers from N

184、ortheast Asia(South Korea and Japan),Southeast Asia(Vietnam,Philippines,Indonesia,Chinese Taiwan and Singapore)and increasingly central Asia,which has attracted renewable energy investment in recent years(e.g.,Kazakhstan).Onshore wind Regionally,the onshore wind industry is able to meet its demand a

185、cross the supplier categories studied through to 2030.However,if China cannot participate in the APAC market(either for supply or demand)supply bottlenecks appear across all categories apart from onshore nacelle assembly,gearboxes and towers.India is a critical regional supplier for nacelle assembly

186、 and to a lesser extent gearboxes which Japan and South Korea can also supply.Tower supply is already more diversified across APAC.Even taking both India and China out of the equation,supply from Vietnam,South Korea,Indonesia and Japan is sufficient to meet regional onshore tower demand through to 2

187、030.Offshore windChina also dominates the offshore wind supply chain,which it is striving to scale up to meet its high domestic demand.Even with Chinese supply,the study identifies minor bottlenecks for gearboxes and blades starting in 2029 and 2030,respectively.Depending on rigidity around cabotage

188、 rules,bottlenecks may appear for vessels before 2030 regardless of the actual supply in the region.Chinese Taiwan expects WTIV bottlenecks due to insufficient domestic supply and may need to rely on foreign vessels.China,South Korea and Japan have ports suitable for offshore wind from 2024 to 2030,

189、but as things stand,only Chinese ports will be able to meet Chinas domestic demand.Bottlenecks related to Japanese port availability is dependent on the successful execution of the upgrades of the offshore wind base ports designated by the government.As with onshore wind,the regional bottlenecks ide

190、ntified without Chinese supply and demand for offshore wind changes considerably.APAC(excluding China)can produce enough offshore wind towers and fixed foundations to meet regional demand,as the supply chains for these two components are the most diversified geographically.Indonesia and Vietnam have

191、 the highest export capability potential for offshore towers through to 2030,due to their relatively low domestic demand.Similarly,the Philippines,Vietnam and Indonesia will be the main exporters of foundations for the same reason,while South Korea will also have high exports because of its strong m

192、anufacturing capacity.Lastly,assuming fulfillment of the announced investment plans in South Korea and Japan,the regional supply chain for offshore nacelle assembly,even excluding China,will be able to meet demand until 2029,with only a minor bottleneck expected in 2030.China supplies most critical

193、materials for the wind sector not only regionally,but also globally.The supplier research revealed some mining and refining capacities in other APAC countries,with different protagonists depending on the material.GWEC.NETChapter 2:Deep Dive into the APAC Wind Supply Chain 20APAC wind supply chain st

194、atusGWEC|ERM|MISSION CRITICAL:BUILDING THE ASIA PACIFIC WIND ENERGY SUPPLY CHAIN FOR A 1.5C WORLD 21TURBINE NACELLE ASSEMBLYGWEC.NET 22The nacelle of a wind turbine supports the rotor and converts the rotational energy from the rotor into three-phase AC electrical energy.Turbine OEMs assemble nacell

195、es using components generally sourced from a range of external suppliers.In APAC region,most of the nacelle assembly plants are in China and India.Looking at the overall market for onshore and offshore wind nacelle assembly,the Chinese market accounts for 85%of the whole APAC nacelle assembly capaci

196、ty.India is the next largest producer of nacelles and driven exclusively by onshore wind,followed by Chinese Taiwan and South Korea to a much lesser extent.Challenges in the supply chain for onshore wind nacelles As per the assembly of nacelles for onshore wind turbines,China is still the dominant s

197、upplier in APAC,with an 85%share.India and South Koreas nacelle capacity is solely onshore,driven by Indias Suzlon,Inox,Adani and Senvion India and South Koreas Doosan and Unison.Record investment commitments were made at RE Invest 2024,including an additional 11 GW of turbine manufacturing capacity

198、 expected to be added between 2025 and 2030.Assessing each markets capacity to supply its own demand for onshore nacelle assembly,only the three APAC countries(China,India,and South Korea)can meet their respective demand.Meanwhile,markets that have no assembling facilities for onshore wind turbines

199、will depend on imports from China or India if they want to avoid bottlenecks in nacelle assembly supply.When excluding supply from China and India,APAC faces major bottleneck risks immediately through to 2030.In Japan,there were three wind turbine OEMs(Mitsubishi Heavy Industries,Hitachi15 and Japan

200、 Steel Works)with turbines exceeding 2 MW.However,by 2019,all three companies had withdrawn from the market,struggling to grow their capabilities in a stagnant domestic onshore wind market and unable to compete with international OEMs in overseas markets.Though smaller companies such as Komai Haltec

201、 are producing 300 kW turbines,Japan currently has no active nacelle assembly capacity for MW-scale onshore wind turbines.In South Korea,there are two active domestic turbine OEMs,Doosan Enerbility and Unison.Doosans current onshore wind offerings include 3 MW and 3.3 MW models,16 with approximately

202、 150 MW of onshore capacity installed in Korea.17 Meanwhile Unison produces 2 MW and 4 MW sized turbines18 for onshore wind projects and has contributed over 240 WTGs domestically,equivalent to 480 MW of installed capacity.19Challenges in the supply chain for offshore wind nacelles In terms of suppl

203、y for offshore wind nacelle assembly,China accounted for most of the APAC capacity,holding an 87%share.Other production capacity is in Chinese Taiwan,which increased from 1.2 GW in 2023 to 3 GW in 2024.This increase is due to the start of production from Siemens Gamesa at its expanded nacelle assemb

204、ly facility in Taichung.Furthermore,Japan and South Korea could begin assembling offshore turbine nacelles in 2026,through partnerships between local companies and international OEMs.Considering the upcoming demand for offshore nacelles,only China and Chinese Taiwan can avoid bottlenecks within thei

205、r respective 15.Nikkei Business Publications(2019).https:/ Enerbility.https:/ Enerbility.https:/ 13%Chinese Taiwan 2%South Korea Below 1%China 85%129.24 GWOnshore and offshore turbine nacelle assembly capacity APAC,2024(MW)Source:GWEC Market Intelligence,ERM,Brinckmann,October 2024Chapter 2:Deep Div

206、e into the APAC Wind Supply ChainGWEC|ERM|MISSION CRITICAL:BUILDING THE ASIA PACIFIC WIND ENERGY SUPPLY CHAIN FOR A 1.5C WORLD 23India 15%South Korea Below 1%China 85%106.24 GWKazakstan15%India 85%12 GWOnshore turbine nacelle assembly capacity APAC,2024(MW)APAC onshore wind demand and supply benchma

207、rk-2024-2030 Planned new onshore turbine nacelle assembly capacity up to 2030Demand vs supply analysis,2024-2030(MW)Market2024202520262027202820292030Australia1500200020002000200025003000Indonesia0180200220240240280Japan800800800800800800800Philippines200245750600600600600South Korea2002002002002002

208、00200Vietnam500100010002000250025002500China70000700007000075000750007500080000India4200550061007100750075007500Chinese Taiwan50505050505050Other APAC1563254027402602290030503450TOTAL79013825158384090572917909244098380TOTAL(excl.China)9013125151384015572167901744018380TOTAL(excl.China and India)4813

209、7015774084729290994010880l Supply exceeds demand l Major Bottleneck-Supply is 10%below demand l Values in the cells indicate that years demand for a componentSource:GWEC Market Intelligence,ERM,Brinckmann,October 2024Chapter 2:Deep Dive into the APAC Wind Supply ChainGWEC.NET 24APAC offshore wind de

210、mand and supply benchmark 2024-2030Chinese Taiwan 13%China 87%23 GWJapan 49%South Korea 51%2.04 GWOffshore turbine nacelle assembly capacity APAC,2024(MW)Planned new offshore turbine nacelle assembly capacity up to 2030Demand vs supply analysis,2024-2030(MW)Market2024202520262027202820292030Australi

211、a0000000Indonesia0000000Japan1122201760140514801070Philippines0000000South Korea1000880895123015001500Vietnam0000000China10000120001500015000150001600016000India002005005001000Chinese Taiwan924152016451850175015001500TOTAL11136137401756217805198852098021070TOTAL(excl.China)11361740256228054885498050

212、70l Supply exceeds demand l Minor Bottleneck-Supply is 10%below demand l Values in the cells indicate that years demand for a componentSource:GWEC Market Intelligence,ERM,Brinckmann,October 2024Chapter 2:Deep Dive into the APAC Wind Supply ChainGWEC|ERM|MISSION CRITICAL:BUILDING THE ASIA PACIFIC WIN

213、D ENERGY SUPPLY CHAIN FOR A 1.5C WORLD 25markets,as they serve as primary suppliers for the region.Even without Chinese supply,Chinese Taiwan can support regional demand through to 2029.At present,there is no offshore wind nacelle assembly plant in Japan.The country will start assembling offshore na

214、celles in 2026,although current announced capabilities(1040 MW)would not be sufficient to avoid bottlenecks from 2028 to 2030.In 2021,Toshiba Energy Systems announced a partnership with GE for the domestic assembly of the Haliade-X offshore wind turbines in Japan.20 Assembly of 80 nacelle units per

215、annum21 is expected to commence in 2026 to supply the Round 1 and Round 2 offshore wind projects,which have announced CODs of 2028 to 2030.Last year,Toshiba announced that it had produced a shortlist of five companies in Akita Prefecture to supply nacelle components,with final decisions expected in

216、2025.South Koreas Doosan Enerbility has developed a 5.5 MW offshore model which has been selected for the 100 MW Jeju Hallim Offshore Wind Farm,22 currently under construction and set to be the largest operational offshore wind project in the country upon completion.The company built its second wind

217、 turbine location in 2021 for its 5.5 MW offshore turbine,with an annual production capacity of 30 turbines.23 It has obtained type certification for its 8 MW model and is developing a 10 MW turbine for commercialisation.Doosan Enerbility is also signing a strategic framework agreement with Siemens

218、Gamesa to assemble their offshore wind nacelles.24 In October 2024 the two companies signed a MoU with Equinor to supply Siemens Gamesas 15 MW class turbines,for which the nacelles will be assembled at Doosan Enerbilitys Changwon facility,destined for the 750 MW Bandibuli floating offshore windfarm.

219、25 Additionally,GE Vernova revealed in 2022 that it had signed a strategic partnership agreement with Hyundai Electric for the Korean company to support the local nacelle assembly and manufacturing of generators for the Haliade-X wind turbines.26 Vestas and Danish logistics company Maersk signed a M

220、OU with Jeonnam Province and Mokpo City to build a nacelle factory and logistics base at the Mokpo New Port Hinterland Complex in 2024.27Unison has been developing an offshore wind 10 MW direct-drive turbine which is currently undergoing testing and is expected to be ready for commercialisation by 2

221、026.28 The company has also established a joint venture with Chinese turbine OEM Mingyang Smart Energy to establish a wind turbine nacelle assembly plant,as well as blade manufacturing facilities in South Korea.29 Furthermore,Chinese Shanghai Electric co-established a legal entity called HSE Wind wi

222、th HYOSUNG in South Korea in 2021 and plans to produce 50 units of 10 MW offshore wind turbine per annum in South Korea.20.Toshiba(2021).https:/www.gDlobal.toshiba/jp/news/energy/2021/05/news-20210511-02.html21.Nihon Keizai Shimbun(2023).https:/ Enerbility(2021).https:/ Enerbility.https:/ Gamesa(202

223、3).https:/ Vernova(2022).https:/ News(2024).https:/ Wind Biz(2024).https:/www.offshorewind.biz/2024/09/05/mingyang-to-manufacture-wind-tur-bines-in-south-korea/26KEY COMPONENTSThe gearbox is the part of the wind turbine that increases the rotational rotor speed before feeding it to the generator.The

224、 conventional high-speed gear drive converts rotor torque at a speed of 5-15 rpm to a speed of up to about 1500 rpm for conversion to electrical energy by the generator,while a medium-speed gearbox(or hybrid drive)converts it to a speed of 600 rpm.However,not all wind turbines use a gearbox;instead,

225、some utilise direct drive technology as an alternative.Despite the higher costs,direct drive turbines are becoming widely used in offshore wind,as they have better reliability and lower maintenance costs.The most used type of drivetrain technology is still the high-speed gearbox,followed by medium-s

226、peed gearbox and direct drive(DD).Challenges in the supply chain for onshore wind gearboxes Onshore gearboxes in the APAC region are mainly produced in China(85%).Outside of China,India is the main producer,followed by Japan and South Korea,whose capacity is rather limited in comparison.China and In

227、dia are expected to remain as the regional main suppliers,with increases of production capacity in both markets in 2026 and 2025,respectively.At the national level,the four APAC markets(China,India,Japan,and South Korea)that produce GWEC|ERM|MISSION CRITICAL:BUILDING THE ASIA PACIFIC WIND ENERGY SUP

228、PLY CHAIN FOR A 1.5C WORLD 27GearboxesCopyright:NGCGWEC.NET 28Onshore wind gearboxes demand and supply benchmark-2024-2030 India 13%Japan 1%South Korea 1%China 85%130.8 GWIndia 7%China 93%43 GWOnshore turbine gearbox production capacity APAC,2024(MW)Planned new onshore turbine gearbox production cap

229、acity up to 2030Demand vs supply analysis,2024-2030(MW)Market2024202520262027202820292030Australia1500200020002000200025003000Indonesia0180200220240240280Japan800800800800800800800Philippines200245750600600600600South Korea200200200200200200200Vietnam500100010002000250025002500China70000700007000075

230、000750007500080000India4200550061007100750075007500Chinese Taiwan50505050505050Other APAC1563254027402602290030503450TOTAL79013825158384090572917909244098380TOTAL(excl.China)9013125151384015572167901744018380TOTAL(excl.China&India)48137015774084729290994010880l Supply exceeds demand l Major Bottlene

231、ck-Supply is 10%below demand l Values in the cells indicate that years demand for a componentSource:GWEC Market Intelligence,ERM,Brinckmann,October 2024Chapter 2:Deep Dive into the APAC Wind Supply ChainGWEC|ERM|MISSION CRITICAL:BUILDING THE ASIA PACIFIC WIND ENERGY SUPPLY CHAIN FOR A 1.5C WORLD 29O

232、ffshore wind gearboxes demand and supply benchmark-2024-2030 China 100%20GWOffshore turbine gearbox production capacity APAC,2024(MW)Demand vs supply analysis,2024-2030(MW)Market2024202520262027202820292030Australia0000000Indonesia0000000Japan11222016260140514801070Philippines0000000South Korea10008

233、80895123015001500Vietnam0000000China10000120001500015000150001600016000India002005005001000Chinese Taiwan924152016451850175015001500TOTAL11136137401756217805198852098021070TOTAL(excl.China)1136174025622805488549805070l Supply exceeds demand l Minor Bottleneck-Supply is 10%below demand l Values in th

234、e cells indicate that years demand for a componentSource:GWEC Market Intelligence,ERM,Brinckmann,October 2024gearboxes for onshore wind turbines will be able to meet their respective demand,with Australia,Indonesia,Philippines,Vietnam,and other APAC countries depending on gearbox imports.Both includ

235、ing and excluding China in the analysis,the APAC region would be self-sufficient,with no dependency on imports from other regions.Challenges in the supply chain for offshore wind gearboxesFor offshore wind,China is the only gearbox producer in the APAC region.Chinese offshore gearbox capacity accoun

236、ts for approximately one sixth of its total production of gearboxes,combining both onshore and offshore technologies.When it comes to offshore turbine gearboxes,Chinese Taiwans lack of production capacity makes it reliant on imports,like Japan,South Korea and India.Regionally,APAC will be able to me

237、et growing demand with Chinese manufacturers up to 2030,although the demand and supply benchmark analysis shows that the supply of offshore gearboxes could suffer a bottleneck from 2029.This is because at least 15%of the forecasted installations in APAC region in 2024-2030 will use the direct drive

238、technology,in turn reducing demand for gearboxes.Chapter 2:Deep Dive into the APAC Wind Supply ChainGWEC.NET 30Generators are crucial to producing electricity from wind,as they convert mechanical energy to electrical energy.According to GWECs Global Wind Supply Side Data 202330 report,60%of the new

239、installations in 2023 use doubly fed induction generators(DFIGs),followed by medium speed permanent magnets generators(MS PMGs,21%),direct drive PMGs(DD PMGs,7%),squirrel-cage induction generators(SCIGs,10%)and electrically excited synchronous generators(EESG,2%).Of the generator technologies,DD PMG

240、s and MS PMGs require rare-earth elements(REE)to support production.Challenges in the supply chain for onshore wind generatorsChina holds 90%of the onshore generator production in APAC,with India and Vietnam having capabilities and South Korea to a lesser extent.Most APAC countries are dependent on

241、Chinese generators to meet onshore wind energy demand,if imports from other regions are not considered except for India,Vietnam and South Korea,the other three producers in the region.When assessing the supply and demand of key components under a closed markets scenario,India,Vietnam and South Korea

242、 will have sufficient capacity to meet their domestic demand for generators as well as additional capacity that could be exported across the APAC region to help manage the expected GeneratorsGWEC|ERM|MISSION CRITICAL:BUILDING THE ASIA PACIFIC WIND ENERGY SUPPLY CHAIN FOR A 1.5C WORLD 31Chapter 2:Dee

243、p Dive into the APAC Wind Supply ChainOnshore wind generators demand and supply benchmark-2024-2030 India 7%Vietnam 3%South Korea Below 1%China 90%128.25 GWOnshore turbine generator production capacity APAC,2024(MW)Demand vs supply analysis,2024-2030(MW)Market2024202520262027202820292030Australia150

244、0200020002000200025003000Indonesia0180200220240240280Japan800800800800800800800Philippines200245750600600600600South Korea200200200200200200200Vietnam500100010002000250025002500China70000700007000075000750007500080000India4200550061007100750075007500Chinese Taiwan50505050505050Other APAC156325402740

245、2602290030503450TOTAL79013825158384090572917909244098380TOTAL(excl.China)9013125151384015572167901744018380TOTAL(excl.China&India)48137015774084729290994010880l Supply exceeds demand l Minor Bottleneck-Supply is 10%below demand l Values in the cells indicate that years demand for a componentSource:G

246、WEC Market Intelligence,ERM,Brinckmann,October 2024bottlenecks.GE has been operating in Vietnam for over 15 years producing and exporting onshore generator systems at the GE Hai Phong facility.Since 2008,the GE Hai Phong facility has been generating export revenues worth$2 billion.31 The Haiphong fa

247、ctory is strategically positioned to export primarily wind turbine generators and electrical-control-system components around the world.Challenges in the supply chain for offshore wind generatorsChina is the only supplier of generators for offshore wind turbines in the region.Moreover,it has plans t

248、o expand its offshore generator capacity by 5 GW in 2025.Compared with the onshore wind generator supply chain,the situation is different for offshore wind,with higher risks of supply chain bottlenecks.Without China,the APAC markets will rely on imports from other regions to meet the demand,given th

249、at China is the only producer of offshore generators.Therefore,markets with growing offshore wind demand like Japan,South Korea,Chinese Taiwan and India will depend on imports either from China or from Europe.GWEC.NET 32Chapter 2:Deep Dive into the APAC Wind Supply ChainOffshore wind generators dema

250、nd and supply benchmark-2024-2030 China 100%20 GWChina 100%5 GWOffshore turbine generator production capacity APAC,2024(MW)Planned new offshore turbine generator production capacity up to 2030Demand vs supply analysis,2024-2030(MW)Market2024202520262027202820292030Australia0000000Indonesia0000000Jap

251、an1122201760140514801070Philippines0000000South Korea1000880895123015001500Vietnam0000000China10000120001500015000150001600016000India002005005001000Chinese Taiwan924152016451850175015001500TOTAL11136137401756217805198852098021070TOTAL(excl.China)1136174025622805488549805070l Supply exceeds demand l

252、 Major Bottleneck-Supply is 10%below demand l Values in the cells indicate that years demand for a componentSource:GWEC Market Intelligence,ERM,Brinckmann,October 2024GWEC|ERM|MISSION CRITICAL:BUILDING THE ASIA PACIFIC WIND ENERGY SUPPLY CHAIN FOR A 1.5C WORLD 33Chapter 2:Deep Dive into the APAC Win

253、d Supply ChainA wind turbine blade captures the energy in the wind and transfers torque and unwanted loads to the drive train and the rest of the turbine.Blades can be made of various materials,with fibreglass and epoxy resin being the most used in the wind industry.However,as manufacturers look to

254、scale up blade and wind turbine sizes,designs incorporating carbon fibre are emerging as an alternative due to its stiffness and lightweight properties.Additionally,certain designs opt for polyester resin instead of epoxy resin.Going forward,more emphasis is expected on decommissioning and circulari

255、ty requirements.Challenges in the supply chain for onshore wind blades Chinese manufacturers overwhelmingly dominate the supply of wind turbine blades in the APAC region,with the capacity to produce blades annually for 100 GW of onshore wind.Excluding China,India has the biggest onshore blades produ

256、ction capacity,followed by South Korea,whose capacities are rather limited in comparison.In 2024,it was announced that a new established subsidiary of Zhuzhou Times New Materials Technology Co Ltd,called Vietnam Wind Blade Engineering Co Ltd,is investing in a new facility for wind turbine blade prod

257、uction in Vietnam.32 If realised,Vietnam could become the third largest supplier of onshore blades in the APAC region.At the national level,only China and India are expected to manufacture enough onshore wind turbine blades to meet their domestic demand.Turbine blades however present a bottleneck in

258、 all other APAC markets.Though there is limited blade manufacturing capacity in South Korea,it is not considered sufficient to cover its onshore wind pipeline.Even when including capacity from the new blade facility expected in Vietnam,Vietnam is expected to see major bottlenecks through the whole f

259、orecasted period.From a regional perspective,blade supply is strong enough to meet the regions total demand through to 2030.However,if China and India are excluded from the analysis,bottlenecks are expected for the entire APAC region.Thus,collaboration is crucial to support growth in this region.Cha

260、llenges in the supply chain for offshore wind blades Chinese manufacturers also BladesGWEC.NET 34Chapter 2:Deep Dive into the APAC Wind Supply ChainOnshore wind blades demand and supply benchmark-2024-2030 China 86%South Korea below 1%India 14%112.95 GWIndia 71%Vietnam 29%2.8 GWOnshore blades produc

261、tion capacity APAC,2024(MW)Planned new onshore blades production capacity up to 2030Demand vs supply analysis,2024-2030(MW)Market2024202520262027202820292030Australia1500200020002000200025003000Indonesia0200280280220250150Japan800800800800800800800Philippines200245750600600600600South Korea200200200

262、200200200200Vietnam500100013002300300033003500China70000700007000075000750007500080000India4200550061007100750075007500Chinese Taiwan50505050505050Other APAC1563254027402602290030503450TOTAL79013825158384090572917909244098380TOTAL(excl.China)9013125151384015572167901744018380TOTAL(excl.China&India)4

263、8137015774084729290994010880l Supply exceeds demand l Minor Bottleneck-Supply is 10%below demand l Values in the cells indicate that years demand for a componentSource:GWEC Market Intelligence,ERM,Brinckmann,October 2024GWEC|ERM|MISSION CRITICAL:BUILDING THE ASIA PACIFIC WIND ENERGY SUPPLY CHAIN FOR

264、 A 1.5C WORLD 35Chapter 2:Deep Dive into the APAC Wind Supply ChainOffshore wind blades demand and supply benchmark-2024-2030 China 95%Chinese Taiwan 5%21 GWOffshore blades production capacity APAC,2024(MW)Demand vs supply analysis,2024-2030(MW)Market2024202520262027202820292030Australia0000000Indon

265、esia0000000Japan1122201760140514801070Philippines0000000South Korea1000880895123015001500Vietnam0000000China10000120001500015000150001600016000India002005005001000Chinese Taiwan924152016451850175015001500TOTAL11136137401756217805198852098021070TOTAL(excl.China)1136174025622805488549805070l Supply ex

266、ceeds demand l Minor Bottleneck-Supply is 10%below demand l Values in the cells indicate that years demand for a componentSource:GWEC Market Intelligence,ERM,Brinckmann,October 2024dominate the supply of offshore wind turbine blades in the APAC region,with the capacity to produce blades annually for

267、 20 GW of offshore wind.Other commercial offshore blade production capacity present in the region is seen in Chinese Taiwan,which can supply 1 GW of offshore wind annually.In the case of offshore wind blades,China is the only market that will be able to meet its demand.The production capacity from C

268、hinese Taiwan is not sufficient to meet the supply for local projects due to strong offshore wind forecast demand.Other markets that currently do not have any offshore blade manufacturing facilities like Japan,South Korea and India will also depend on imports to meet their respective demand.Imports

269、may come solely from China within the APAC region,with supply chain pressures building by 2029.This scenario could be seen as an opportunity for South Korea and potentially Vietnam to adapt onshore blades production facilities to make them suitable for offshore wind.30.GWEC(2023),https:/ wind turbin

270、es have variable speed generators connected to the grid via AC-DC-AC power converters.There is a range of different generator/converter architectures used.Critical to consider in the design of power converters are requirements imposed by grid operators for wind turbines to support and stabilise the

271、grid during grid faults and to provide or consume reactive power on demand.Challenges in the supply chain for onshore wind power converters The manufacturing of most onshore wind power converters is in China,which accounts for 92%of the regions production capacity.India also has strong capabilities,

272、with a production capacity of 10.6 GW,which is set to increase to 11.8 GW in 2027.Manufacturing of power converters also takes place in Vietnam within the APAC region.The onshore wind power converter supply chain is expected to suffer a bottleneck in APAC as early as 2025,if imports from China are n

273、ot considered.The shortage worsens as onshore wind demand continues to grow in the region over the years.At a national level,Indias production capacity exceeds its demand,leading to potential exports.If local produced power converters in Vietnam are used locally,all onshore wind farms in the country

274、 will be able to use locally produced products up until 2027,when imports will be required to meet its onshore wind demand.Challenges in the supply chain for offshore wind power convertersRegarding offshore wind,almost the entirety of the power converters in APAC are manufactured in China,which acco

275、unts for 98%of the regions production capacity.In Chinese Taiwan,power converters are also manufactured for offshore wind turbines,where the supply chain is expected to expand from 1 GW to 1.75 GW in 2027.Similar to onshore wind,the production of power converters for offshore wind in the APAC region

276、 lags significantly behind current and future demand if China is excluded.However,when including China,no shortage is anticipated through to 2030.In the case of Chinese Taiwan,its production capacity for offshore wind is projected to fall short of meeting demand between 2025 and 2027,driven by a sha

277、rp increase in offshore wind demand starting in 2025.No bottleneck is expected in this market after 2027,given a potential increase in production capacity.Other markets that are developing offshore wind like Japan,South Korea and India will depend on imports as they lack power converter manufacturer

278、s in-country for offshore wind at present.GWEC.NET 3632.https:/ convertersGWEC|ERM|MISSION CRITICAL:BUILDING THE ASIA PACIFIC WIND ENERGY SUPPLY CHAIN FOR A 1.5C WORLD 37Chapter 2:Deep Dive into the APAC Wind Supply ChainOnshore wind power converter demand and supply benchmark-2024-2030 China 92%Ind

279、ia 7%Vietnam 1%140.85 GWChina 52%India 48%2.5 GWOnshore power converter production capacity APAC,2024(MW)Planned new onshore power converter production capacity up to 2030Demand vs supply analysis,2024-2030(MW)Market2024202520262027202820292030Australia1500200020002000200025003000Indonesia0180200220

280、240240280Japan800800800800800800800Philippines200245750600600600600South Korea200200200200200200200Vietnam500100010002000250025002500China70000700007000075000750007500080000India4200550061007100750075007500Chinese Taiwan50505050505050Other APAC1563254027402602290030503450TOTAL79013825158384090572917

281、909244098380TOTAL(excl.China)9013125151384015572167901744018380TOTAL(excl.China&India)48137015774084729290994010880l Supply exceeds demand l Minor Bottleneck-Supply is 10%below demand l Values in the cells indicate that years demand for a componentSource:GWEC Market Intelligence,ERM,Brinckmann,Octob

282、er 2024GWEC.NET 38Chapter 2:Deep Dive into the APAC Wind Supply ChainOffshore wind power converter demand and supply benchmark-2024-2030 China 98%India 2%57.02 GWChinese Taiwan100%750 MWOffshore wind power converter production capacity APAC,2024(MW)Planned new offshore wind converter production capa

283、city up to 2030Demand vs supply analysis,2024-2030(MW)Market2024202520262027202820292030Australia0000000Indonesia0000000Japan1122201760140514801070Philippines0000000South Korea1000880895123015001500Vietnam0000000China10000120001500015000150001600016000India002005005001000Chinese Taiwan92415201645185

284、0175015001500TOTAL11136137401756217805198852098021070TOTAL(excl.China)1136174025622805488549805070l Supply exceeds demand l Minor Bottleneck-Supply is 10%below demand l Values in the cells indicate that years demand for a componentSource:GWEC Market Intelligence,ERM,Brinckmann,October 2024 39As a pr

285、imary structure of a wind turbine,the tower is an independent component that accounts for approximately 20%of the turbine cost,making it one of the most expensive components.The tower is typically a tubular steel structure that supports the nacelle,although it can also be made of concrete or wood.To

286、wers are also used to house electrical and control equipment,as well as to provide shelter and storage for safety equipment.They do not need to be assembled with other turbine components until installation.There is a considerable level of diversification in the supply chain for towers,compared to ot

287、her components.Towers are usually one of the first components to be considered when looking to address local content,as entry barriers are low and companies with steel rolling capabilities can participate easily.Challenges in the supply chain for onshore wind towers In the APAC region,onshore wind t

288、ower manufacturing facilities are in China,India,Vietnam,South Korea,Indonesia,and Japan.Despite the diversification,China still leads the total regional production of onshore towers.In fact,its onshore tower production capacity will increase even more in the following years,as it is the case for In

289、dia.For onshore wind towers,the markets that can meet their expected demand using local supply chains are Indonesia,South Korea,Vietnam,China,and India.CS Wind is a global leader in wind turbine tower manufacturing and has been producing towers in Vietnam since 2003.In 2024,CS Wind announced it will

290、 build a factory and storage yard for onshore and offshore towers,as well as foundations,in the Southeast Asia Industrial Park in Long An,Vietnam.33 CS Wind has sufficient capabilities to serve the Vietnam onshore wind market as well as the demands of the wider APAC market.Regionally,the APAC(exclud

291、ing China)supply chain is not expected to face any bottlenecks related to onshore wind towers,even when excluding supply from China and India.Challenges in the supply chain for offshore wind towersRegarding offshore wind,China dominates the supply chain for towerswith Indonesia,South Korea,Chinese T

292、aiwan,and Vietnam TowersGWEC.NET 40Chapter 2:Deep Dive into the APAC Wind Supply ChainOnshore wind towers demand and supply benchmark-2024-2030 India 13%Vietnam 3%South Korea 2%Indonesia 2%Japan Below 1%China 80%21,564 unitsChina 48%India 52%2,100 unitsOnshore tower production capacity APAC,2024(MW)

293、Planned new onshore towers production capacity up to 2030Demand vs supply analysis,2024-2030(Units)Market2024202520262027202820292030Australia300364364333333385462Indonesia0404444484047Japan178160160145145133133Philippines4049136109109100100South Korea44404036363333Vietnam125250200400455455417China1

294、0769933393339375937588249412India1500183319062088208317861667Chinese Taiwan101010101088Other APAC359509513452494509511TOTAL13326125881270712994130891227212790TOTAL(excl.China)2557325533743619371434493378TOTAL(excl.China&India)1057142214681530163116631711l Supply exceeds demand l Minor Bottleneck-Sup

295、ply is 10%below demand l Values in the cells indicate that years demand for a componentSource:GWEC Market Intelligence,ERM,Brinckmann,October 2024GWEC|ERM|MISSION CRITICAL:BUILDING THE ASIA PACIFIC WIND ENERGY SUPPLY CHAIN FOR A 1.5C WORLD 41Chapter 2:Deep Dive into the APAC Wind Supply ChainOffshor

296、e wind tower demand and supply benchmark-2024-2030 China 77%South Korea 3%Indonesia 10%Vietnam 5%Chinese Taiwan 5%4,038 unitsChina 77%Japan 4%Vietnam 19%830 unitsOffshore tower production capacity APAC,2024(MW)Planned new offshore towers production capacity up to 2030Demand vs supply analysis,2024-2

297、030(Units)Market2024202520262027202820292030Australia0000000Indonesia0000000Japan14258410010080Philippines0000000South Korea1006610684100100Vietnam0000000China1000120012501154107110661000India0020353567Chinese Taiwan113118113127120103100TOTAL1337134314391391141014041347TOTAL(excl.China)1371431892373

298、39338347l Supply exceeds demand l Minor Bottleneck-Supply is 10%below demand l Values in the cells indicate that years demand for a componentSource:GWEC Market Intelligence,ERM,Brinckmann,October 2024GWEC.NET 42completing the regions production capacity for offshore wind towers.As for future capacit

299、y,expansion in the supply chain of offshore towers is expected in China,Vietnam and Japan.As for offshore wind,APACs supply chain is expected to meet the regional demand for towers,both with and without Chinese manufacturers.Production in China,Indonesia and Vietnam amply exceeds their respective of

300、fshore wind demand,leaving room for exports to other APAC markets.On the contrary,Chinese Taiwans high demand causes a bottleneck in its domestic supply chain immediately,until 2030 when demand in units is expected to reduce as larger turbines are expected to be installed.In Japan,Komai Haltec is cu

301、rrently developing an offshore wind tower manufacturing facility in Futtsu City,Japan,with government support through the Green Innovation Fund of the New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization(NEDO).Komais facility is expected to achieve a manufacturing capacity of 20 to 30 units

302、 per annum from 2026.However,this facility alone is not expected to be able to meet the increase in domestic offshore wind demand from 2028.Similarly,South Korean manufacturers have capacity to meet the countrys demand up until 2029,when it reaches 1.5 GW.However,given the pace at which new turbine

303、platforms are being introduced in China,it is possible that not all manufacturers will be able to meet the base diameter requirements for future turbines.In Portland,Australia,Keppel Prince established a facility to construct and fabricate onshore wind towers;however,the facility struggled to compet

304、e with cheaper components sourced from overseas companies.3433.https:/www.offshorewind.biz/2024/09/11/cs-wind-to-pour-usd-200-million-into-new-factory-in-vietnam/34.Australias wind tower producers call for local supply agreements during renewable energy transition-ABC NewsGWEC|ERM|MISSION CRITICAL:B

305、UILDING THE ASIA PACIFIC WIND ENERGY SUPPLY CHAIN FOR A 1.5C WORLD 43Chapter 2:Deep Dive into the APAC Wind Supply ChainCastings play a key role in assembling and operating a wind turbine.As the wind turns the rotor blades,they transmit significant fatigue loads to the cast components,which are then

306、 passed on to the wind tower.A wind turbine requires various castings,such as the rotor hub,main frame,gearbox housing,main shafts,and bearing housings,extending from the rotor hub to the drivetrain and the nacelle bed frame.As a traditional industry with non-automated technology and low annual prod

307、uction volumes,the casting industry would benefit from heavy CAPEX investments in the future.However,this is limited by price pressures.Traditionally,foundries have acted as tier 2 or tier 3 suppliers,letting the machining supply base be the OEM interface.Several large wind turbine OEMs typically ow

308、ned their own in-house foundries and machine shops in the past,but this is now limited to a few OEMs such as Dongfang and Suzlon.Currently the inflow is handled through known independent suppliers globally.Challenges in the supply chain for onshore wind castingsAsia Pacific has the worlds largest Ca

309、stingsGWEC.NET 44 Onshore wind castings demand and supply benchmark-2024-2030 China 96%India 4%1,873,650 tonnesOnshore castings capacity APAC,2024(MW)Demand vs supply analysis,2024-2030(tonnes)Market2024202520262027202820292030Australia18300244002440024400244003050036600Indonesia02196244026842928292

310、83416Japan9760976097609760976097609760Philippines2440298991507320732073207320South Korea2440244024402440244024402440Vietnam6100122001220024400305003050030500China854000854000854000915000915000915000976000India51240671007442086620915009150091500Chinese Taiwan610610610610610610610Other APAC19069309883

311、342831744353803721042090TOTAL963959100668310228481104978111983811277681200236TOTAL(excl.China)109959152683168848189978204838212768224236TOTAL(excl.China&India)587198558394428103358113338121268132736l Supply exceeds demand l Minor Bottleneck-Supply is 10%below demand l Values in the cells indicate th

312、at years demand for a componentSource:GWEC Market Intelligence,ERM,Brinckmann,October 2024Chapter 2:Deep Dive into the APAC Wind Supply Chainmanufacturing base for wind castings in terms of annual output and total number of suppliers,as well as the lowest cost.This dominance is mainly driven by Chin

313、as strength,with more than 40 foundries in operation.Other supply chain capabilities for onshore wind are only found in India.The significant dominance of China in the APAC regions onshore wind casting supply chain translates into a regional dependency on its surplus.All other APAC markets may need

314、Chinas capacity to meet their respective demands.As an exception,Indias local supply GWEC|ERM|MISSION CRITICAL:BUILDING THE ASIA PACIFIC WIND ENERGY SUPPLY CHAIN FOR A 1.5C WORLD 45Chapter 2:Deep Dive into the APAC Wind Supply ChainOffshore wind castings demand and supply benchmark-2024-2030 China 9

315、3%Chinese Taiwan 7%440,950 tonnesOffshore castings capacity APAC,2024(MW)Demand vs supply analysis,2024-2030(tonnes)Market2024202520262027202820292030Australia0000000Indonesia0000000Japan198238942971062248692619618939Philippines0000000South Korea177001557615842217712655026550Vietnam0000000China17700

316、0212400265500265500265500283200283200India0035408850885017700Chinese Taiwan16355269042911732745309752655026550TOTAL232507296298310844315149351965371346372939TOTAL(excl.China)20107307984534449649864658814689739l Supply exceeds demand l Minor Bottleneck-Supply is 10%below demand l Values in the cells

317、indicate that years demand for a componentSource:GWEC Market Intelligence,ERM,Brinckmann,October 2024chain will be able to meet the markets demand until 2027,when onshore wind demand will exceed 7 GW.Challenges in the supply chain for offshore wind castingsCastings capacity mainly resides in China w

318、ithin the APAC region for offshore wind,accounting for 93%.For its part,Chinese Taiwan completes the regional castings capacity with the remaining 7%of supply.As in onshore wind,the supply chain for offshore wind castings in APAC will suffer bottlenecks starting in 2025 if China is excluded from the

319、 analysis.In this scenario,production capacity will be sufficient to meet the needs of APAC(excluding China)in 2024,including the demands of Japan,South Korea,and Chinese Taiwan.However,from 2025 onwards,a gap between supply and demand begins to emerge as demand continues to grow.At a market level,t

320、he local supply chain for castings in Chinese Taiwan will meet its demand across the following years,except for 2027 and 2028,when the demand will be slightly higher than the supply.46CRITICAL MATERIALSGWEC|ERM|MISSION CRITICAL:BUILDING THE ASIA PACIFIC WIND ENERGY SUPPLY CHAIN FOR A 1.5C WORLD 47Th

321、e global wind industry is expected to continue its rapid growth over the coming decades.The recovery after the COVID-19 pandemic has led to competition among different industries for raw materials and ongoing bottlenecks in manufacturing capacity.This has significantly affected on the wind industry

322、as procurement of raw materials has an immense impact on the capital cost.Around 90%of offshore windfarm components comprise of steel and 72%of onshore windfarm components are concrete.The expansion of wind energy,together with other types of renewable energy sources,focuses minds on the importance

323、of clean energy supply chains,and the adequate supply of critical materials.According to the International Energy Agency(IEA),total mineral demand from clean energy technologies is set to double in the Stated Policies Scenario35 and quadruple in the Sustainable Development Scenario36 by 2040 compare

324、d to 2020 levels(see figure to the right).Under the conditions outlined in the IEAs net zero emissions by 2050 scenario,critical minerals supply will need to grow three and a half times by 2030 to meet energy demands.Ensuring that wind energy can continue to draw on sufficient mineral supplies could

325、 present some challenges,given that the timescale for new mining projects can be nearly 20 years,with a strong potential for delays caused by a range of environmental,social and permitting issues.37In this report,the critical materials assessed include rare earth elements,carbon fibre,steel,concrete

326、,and copper.The APAC region is well positioned to supply these materials and even without China(the global market leader)there are capabilities across other APAC countries.SteelElectronic scrapGFRPCopperCFRPRare earthAluminiumLeadConcreteSteelOffshore wind farmOnshore wind farmElectronic scrapGFRPCo

327、pperCFRPRare earthAluminiumLeadConcrete221t/MW640t/MW72%90%24%5%4%2010HydrogenElectricity networksEVs and battery storageOther low-carbon power generationWindSolar PV202020302x4x2040STEPSSDS20302040Mt102030Total mineral demand for clean energy techonologies by scenarioSource:IEA,October 2024Material

328、s breakdown for onshore and offshore winfarmsSource:BloomberNEF Note:GFRP-Carbon fibre and reinforced plastic35.Outlook based on the latest announced policies36.Pathway for the global energy sector(through to 2040)that keeps the world on track to meet the long-term mitigation goals of the Paris Agre

329、ement37.ERM,2023.Critical minerals:How the mining sector can accelerate the energy transition.Chapter 2:Deep Dive into the APAC Wind Supply ChainGWEC.NET 48Supply of rare earth elements(mined)by market in the APAC region,2022(%)Supply of rare earth elements(refined)by market in the APAC region,2022(

330、%)India 1%Australia 6%Myanmar 5%China 88%India 2%Vietnam 2%Malaysia 8%Thailand 2%China 86%Source:Rare Earth Industry Association,2024Chapter 2:Deep Dive into the APAC Wind Supply ChainThe challenge that a growing wind energy sector presents from a supply chain perspective is particularly true for ra

331、re earth elements(REEs).Rare Earth Permanent Magnets(REPMs)play a key role in the energy transition to renewable sources,including wind.Additionally,direct-drive turbines have become one of the reliable technologies for offshore wind,as they are more reliable,cheaper to maintain,and provide better y

332、ield.These types of WTGs typically use 0.5-0.6 t of REPMs per MW of generation capacity.MiningIn terms of estimated REE mine production,China leads the industry with approximately 75%of annual global output(in the APAC market this equates to 88%).Most of the other countries that produce REEs are als

333、o located in APAC:Australia,India and Myanmar.The latter has emerged as a key supplier of heavy REE ion-adsorption concentrates to separation facilities in China.The gap between mine production capacity in China and the other markets is substantial,as with the production of other materials.However,estimated global REE reserves are not as unevenly distributed.While China still leads the ranking wit