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1、Winter 2024 Retail Report2025 U.S.Retail Forecast Trends:Investor&Retailer Outlook ContentsIntroductionFinding Direction in the New YearHow Retailers See the Year AheadConsumer Insights&Holiday PredictionsConclusionRetail Report|Winter 20242Introduction As we approach 2025,the retail industry is nav

2、igating a complex landscape characterized by both growth opportunities and lack of space.Retailers are facing challenges such as rising costs,evolving technological demands,and geopolitical instability,all while adapting to continuously shifting consumer behaviors and economic conditions.Retailers a

3、re focusing on strengthening their supply chains to be more flexible and transparent.This includes using blockchain technology for better traceability and creating local manufacturing models to respond quickly to market changes.Despite tempered consumer optimism,advancements in technology and strate

4、gic operational adjustments are enabling retailers to remain resilient.This report offers a comprehensive overview of the key themes and trends shaping the U.S.retail sector in 2025,highlighting cautious growth expectations,emerging consumer preferences,and essential strategies for success in the co

5、ming year.Anjee SolankiNational Director,Retail Services&Practice Groups|U.S.3Colliers U.S.ResearchFinding Direction in the New YearEconomic Recap and Forecast Retail sales have remained in positive territory since 2020,but the inflation isnt really new,maybe instead use sticky or persistent inflati

6、on and subsequent tightening of monetary policies have started to take their toll.In 2023,retail spending growth reached 3.4 percent but is expected to slow to 3.2 percent in 2024 and further to 3.1 percent in 2025.This gradual slowdown reflects a stabilizing retail landscape following the post-pand

7、emic consumer activity surge,fueled by pent-up demand and unprecedented spending levels.Despite moderating inflation,consumers are becoming more selective in their purchases.This shift signals a move toward a more sustainable pace of growth,marked by cautious consumer behavior,more balanced supply c

8、hains,and market dynamics that prioritize essential and value-oriented spending over discretionary items.Economic forecasts point to continued growth bolstered by expansionary fiscal policies such as increased government spending,particularly in the defense sector,which will contribute significantly

9、 to GDP gains.The extension of the 2017 tax cuts for individuals and businesses is expected to be the most significant contributor to this growth,counterbalancing potential headwinds from restrictive immigration policies and higher tariffs.While these trade and immigration measures may present chall

10、enges by constraining the labor supply and increasing operational costs for certain industries,the positive impact of the tax cuts is projected to offset these issues,sustaining economic momentum and supporting consumer and business confidence in the short term.With the unemployment rate steady at j

11、ust over 4 percent and an aging workforce as the baby boomer generation nears retirement,President-elect Trumps proposed immigration restrictions could further tighten an already strained labor market.This is particularly impactful for labor-dependent sectors such as construction and hospitality,whi

12、ch rely heavily on immigrant workers.Reducing labor supply could intensify worker competition,drive up wages,and add inflationary pressure.Such strain on the labor market may challenge business operations and slow economic growth by raising production costs and delaying new projects and services.The

13、 policy shift could have broader implications,affecting consumer prices and complicating efforts by policymakers to balance economic stability and inflation control.As a result,while economists largely agree that the Federal Reserve is expected to continue cutting interest rates in 2025,its cautious

14、 stance,reflected in subtle shifts in communication,points to a measured approach amid uncertainties related to fiscal policy.Future rate cuts will likely be deliberate and incremental,with interest rates remaining above pre-pandemic levels.According to Oxford Economics,the federal funds rate is pro

15、jected to stay above 3 percent beyond 2026,with the 10-year Treasury yield expected to remain above 4 percent throughout the period.In 2023,retail spending growth reached 3.4%but is expected to slow to 3.2%in 2024 and further to 3.1%in 2025.Retail Report|Winter 20244Source:GlobalData analysisTotal r

16、etail spending growth for each yearYear-over-year,%14.66.85.73.43.93.63.23.43.54.23.53.64.13.94.53.13.12.83.00.30.02011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028200820103.220095Colliers U.S.ResearchRetail Capital Markets Outlook“Retail remains an attractive

17、 investment opportunity;the challenge is a lack of available product.Sales activity remains on an upward trend,particularly when looking at single-asset and portfolio transactions.Large-scale entity level deals have skewed recent year-over-year comparisons.Institutional investors are becoming more a

18、ctive across various asset types,and retail should be no exception.Given the smaller allocation within portfolios that retail represents,it is only a matter of time before investors shift some of their focus and volumes escalate.”Aaron JodkaDirector,National Capital Markets ResearchThemes for 2025Ca

19、utious OptimismWith inflation coming down and the economy remaining stable,consumers and retailers will approach 2025 with cautious optimism.Retail volumes will start to rebuild as spending power improves.Nimble Supply ChainsDemand will remain changeable and consumers discerning.There will also be u

20、ncertainty over policies like tariffs.This will nudge retailers into ensuring supply chains are nimble so they can quickly adapt.Proposition OptimizationRetailers will focus on optimizing their propositions ranges,stores,services to customer needs and to differentiate them from the competition.This

21、will be a key route to superior growth.PartnershipsMore retailers will form partnerships in a bid to grow sales and ensure financial stability:brands will collaborate on a temporary or more permanent basis.Efficiency DriveWith cost pressures still biting,retailers will be seeking efficiencies across

22、 their organization.This will frequently be tied to improving the customer experience.Alternative RevenuesRetailers will increasingly look to monetize all aspects of their operations from retail media to paid for loyalty programs to help drive incremental revenues.Retail Report|Winter 20246Overall a

23、re you optimistic or pessimistic for your business in 2025?US retailers(all and by type),%Source:GlobalData analysis and retailer panelHow Retailers See the Year AheadThe forecast for retailers heading into 2025 is marked by cautious optimism,although overall confidence has softened slightly compare

24、d to last year.While most sectors are hopeful about industry growth,some categories,like home retail and mass merchants,maintain a more pessimistic outlook.This measured optimism stems from the ongoing hurdles affecting new development.By the close of 2024,approximately 50 million square feet of new

25、 shopping center space will have been added in the U.S.,an increase from 35 million in 2023 but still below the historical average of 61 million square feet per year from 2008 to 2020.High construction costs,which remain 30-40%above pre-pandemic levels,make it difficult for projects to be financiall

26、y viable,even in strong markets.Rising labor and material expenses and overstretched project budgets impact profit margins.Even in markets with strong demand,these elevated costs can erode returns,making it harder for developers to justify new investments.With the Federal Reserve beginning to lower

27、interest rates,there is hope for a slightly improved lending environment in 2025,though any improvement will likely be modest.Retailers are moving into the new year with a balanced outlook,seeking growth while staying mindful of market pressures.56.745.087.573.335.756.558.543.355.012.526.764.343.541

28、.5ApparelHomeGroceryDrug and beautyMass merchantOtherTotalOptimistic Pessimistic7Colliers U.S.ResearchResilient Retail Growth in 2025For the first time since 2020,retailers expect to close more locations than they open in 2024,reflecting a more cautious outlook.However,retail occupancy rates,excludi

29、ng malls,have reached a decade-high of 95.6%,underscoring the stability and resilience of retail spaces,especially in the Single-Tenant Net Lease market.Unsurprisingly,technologies like augmented reality and the metaverse have become irrelevant to many retailers.Instead,the priority has shifted to m

30、ore practical innovations that enhance operational efficiency and streamline business processes.The leading investments are warehouse automation,in response to customer demand,and omnichannel,to lower service costs.Are you planning to open more stores than you close next year?US retailers(all and by

31、 type),%Which,if any,of the following will you be investing in for 2025?US retailers(all),%Source:GlobalData analysis and retailer panelSource:GlobalData analysis and retailer panel50.040.043.846.728.643.543.230.025.018.826.7 26.735.7 35.717.425.420.035.037.539.131.4ApparelHomeGroceryDrug and beauty

32、Mass merchantOtherTotalYes NoNochange in storenumbers88.187.371.263.651.733.932.217.816.910.250.0ApparelHomeGroceryOtherTotalDrug and BeautyMass Merchant30.020.040.025.035.043.818.837.546.726.726.728.643.543.235.717.425.435.739.131.4Automation in warehousesAutomationin storesSelf-checkoutAugmentedre

33、alityAutonomousdeliveryJust walk outtechnologyThemetaverseOmnichannelRFIDArtificialintelligenceRetail Report|Winter 20248ApparelHomeGroceryDrug and beautyMass merchantOtherArtificial intelligence66.785.087.560.071.460.9Augmented reality26.775.06.346.721.417.4The metaverse16.710.06.313.37.14.3Omnicha

34、nnel86.795.093.893.378.678.3Automation in ware-houses96.775.0100.086.785.782.6Automation in stores50.060.068.846.750.039.1Self-checkout33.320.068.853.321.417.4Autonomous delivery13.30.037.513.321.426.1Just walk out technology6.70.043.826.721.417.4RFID73.355.062.560.064.360.9Which,if any,of the follo

35、wing will you be investing in for 2025?US retailers(by retailer type),%Source:GlobalData analysis and retailer panelIn recent years,weve learned that supply chains must be adaptable and efficient.In 2025,retailers are expected to leverage AI and machine learning to manage inventory as well as antici

36、pate and address potential disruptions before they escalate.Its all about building supply chains that flex rather than fracture while supporting sustainability and ensuring that retailers can pivot as circumstances evolve.Automation in warehouses and omnichannel are the two focal points of investmen

37、t.The latter is in response to customer demand,the former is about lowering the cost to serve.The metaverse has become less important to retailers and has fallen in percentage term since last year.9Colliers U.S.ResearchRetailer Sales&Costs ExpectationsRetailer sentiments regarding sales growth in 20

38、25 vary by category.While 29.7 percent of retailers anticipate an improvement in sales,42.4 percent predict a more challenging year.With inflation subsiding,grocery retailers are more optimistic about the coming year as they see volumes rebuilding and costs moderating.However,the uncertainty in the

39、housing market has impacted consumer spending on home-related goods,leading to a more cautious outlook within this sector than others.In terms of sales do you feel 2025 will beUS retailers(all),%Source:GlobalData analysis and retailer panelApparelHomeGroceryDrug and beautyMass merchantOtherMuch bett

40、er than 20246.75.025.06.714.38.7A bit better than 202410.015.037.520.028.617.4About the same as 202426.720.018.840.021.439.1A bit worse than 202440.045.012.520.028.621.7A lot worse than 202416.715.06.313.37.113.0Total better16.720.062.526.742.926.1Total worse56.760.018.833.335.734.8In terms of tradi

41、ng do you feel 2025 will be%U.S.Retailers by Industry TypeSource:GlobalData analysis and retailer panel10.219.528.029.712.7Much better than 2023A bit better than 2023About the same as 2023A bit worse than 2023A lot worse than 2023Much betterthan 2023A bit betterthan 2023A bit worsethan 2023A lot wor

42、sethan 2023About the same as 202310.219.528.029.712.7Retail Report|Winter 202410Most retailers expect costs to rise in 2025 due to the potential impacts of proposed tariffs on importsparticularly those affecting apparel,toys,furniture,household appliances,footwear and travel goods.The proposed tarif

43、fs include a universal 10-20 percent levy on imports from all foreign countries and an additional 60 to100 percent tariff on imports from China.Implementing these tariffs could reduce consumers collective spending power by an estimated$46 billion to$78 billion annually.The study found that these tar

44、iffs would sharply raise the prices of consumer goods,especially for products heavily sourced from China,such as apparel and furniture.In an extreme tariff scenario,average tariffs for these categories could exceed 50 percent,a significant increase from current single or low double-digit rates.These

45、 additional costs would likely be too substantial for U.S.retailers to absorb,resulting in higher consumer prices across these essential product categories.How do you think your costs will change in 2025 compared to 2024?US retailers(all),%Source:GlobalData analysis and retailer panel3.417.838.121.2

46、10.26.82.5Willbe up by more than 10%Will be up by 5-9%Will be up by 1-4%Willbe flatWill be down by 1-4%Will be down by 5-9%Will be down by morethan 10%Most retailers feel costs will rise in 2025,but they are more optimistic about a slower pace of increase than they were last year.Will be up by more

47、than 10%Will be up by 5-9%Will be up by 1-4%Will be flatWill be down by 1-4%Will be down by 5-9%Will be down by more than 10%11Colliers U.S.ResearchApparelHomeGroceryDrug and beautyMass merchantOtherWill be up by more than 10%3.30.06.30.07.14.3Will be up by 5-9%13.320.012.520.028.617.4Will be up by

48、1-4%46.745.037.540.021.430.4Will be flat20.025.018.820.021.421.7Will be down by 1-4%6.75.012.513.37.117.4Will be down by 5-9%6.75.012.56.77.14.3Will be down by more than 10%3.30.00.00.07.14.3Total up63.365.056.360.057.152.2Total down16.710.025.020.021.426.1How do you think your costs will change in

49、2025 compared to 2024?US retailers(by retailer type),%Source:GlobalData analysis and retailer panelWith inflation coming down,grocery retailers have become much more optimistic about the year ahead as they see volumes rebuilding and costs moderating.By contrast,home retailers are more pessimistic ma

50、inly because of doubts over the housing market.Retail Report|Winter 202412Consumer Insights&Holiday PredictionsCautious Consumers in a Shifting Economy While the economic outlook has improved over the past 12 months,most consumers remain cautious,affecting spending patterns.Around 47 percent of cons

51、umers are pessimistic about their finances for 2025,a slight decrease from last year.At the same time,optimism has diminished,with more people adopting a neutral stance.American consumers now owe a record$1.1 trillion on their credit cards,45 percent more than they did in early 2021.Additionally,the

52、 average interest rate on that debt now stands at 24.5 percent,compared to 16.7 percent in 2021.How optimistic or pessimistic are you about your personal finances in 2025?All US consumersSource:GlobalData analysis and retailer panel3.25.417.526.928.312.56.2Very optimisticOptimisticSlightly optimisti

53、cNeutralSlightly pessemisticPessemisticVery pessemisticAround 47%of consumers are pessimistic about their personal finances in 2025.This is slightly down on last year.However,optimism is also down,with more people feeling neutral.Very optimisticSlightly optimisticSlightly pessemisticPessemisticVery

54、pessemisticNeutralOptimistic13Colliers U.S.ResearchTotal retail spending growth for each year%Year-over-yearSource:GlobalData analysis and retailer panelFoodservice2025 growth:+4.9%Food&grocery2025 growth:+2.9%Apparel2025 growth:+2.8%Home2025 growth:+1.7%Most consumers will spend the same or less in

55、 2025 compared to 2024,despite the growth of digital and personalized shopping options that have encouraged spending by offering more accessible and tailored purchasing experiences.Retailers investments in AI-driven solutions,omnichannel offerings,and targeted promotions will make it easier for cons

56、umers to shop in ways that fit their lifestyles and budgets.These innovations are helping create a shopping environment where consumers feel empowered to maintain or cautiously increase their spending,even amidst economic volatility.Grocery and food service retailers continue to feel the impact of i

57、nflation,with 60%of consumers reporting theyre spending more than last year.Saving on groceries is still a priority as consumers look to offset rising prices by cutting back on discretionary purchases and focusing on essentials.On average,consumers are spending$25 more per month on food and beverage

58、s,with 70%attributing this increase to price hikes.How do you think your retail spending in 2025 will change compared to 2024?All US consumersSource:GlobalData analysis and retailer panel7.117.243.925.95.9Spending a lot moreSpending moreSpending about the sameSpending lessSpending a lot lessSpending

59、 a lot moreSpending a lot lessSpending about the sameSpending moreSpending less7.117.243.925.95.95.9Retail Report|Winter 2024142024 Holiday Shopping and Year End OutlookDriven by consumer optimism and consistent spending,the 2024 holiday shopping season is expected to see growth across major shoppin

60、g events.Thanksgiving spending is anticipated to rise by 1.8 percent,followed by a 2.8 percent boost on Black Friday,and Christmas sales likely rising by 3.0 percent,leading overall holiday sales projected to grow by 2.9 percent compared to last year.Falling inflation has kept sales solid,yet elevat

61、ed prices remain a concern,with 90 percent of holiday shoppers noting the impact inflation will have on their spending decisions.Despite these pressures,consumers are showing resilience.Shoppers plan to spend an average of$706 on gifts,the highest amount since 2018.Additionally,37 percent report the

62、y expect to pay more overall this year,with 42 percent attributing that increase to rising prices.Physical stores remain a central part of the holiday shopping experience,with 92 percent of consumers intending to shop in brick-and-mortar locations.Moreover,nearly all these in-store shoppers also pla

63、n to shop online from the same retailers.This trend underscores the significance of brick-and-mortar stores as critical drivers of the omnichannel shopping model,bridging the gap between physical and digital shopping experiences.This holiday season,an estimated 200 million consumers,especially Gen Z

64、 and Millennials,are expected to flood malls and shopping centers to immerse themselves in the festive atmosphere.Food and beverage sales are projected to increase by 6 percent,pushing total seasonal spending to an anticipated$1.66 trillion.These younger shoppers view dining out and experiential sho

65、pping as valuable investments of time and money,fostering community and connection.This trend further enhances the relevance of brick-and-mortar locations during the holiday season,as they become key venues for creating memorable moments.Total retail spending growth for each occasion in 2024Year-ove

66、r-year,%Source:GlobalData analysis and retailer panel+2.83%+1.81%+2.93%+3.02%TotalholidayThanksgivingBlackFridayChristmas+2.93%+1.81%+2.83%+3.02%Total holidayThanksgivingBlack FridayChristmas15Colliers U.S.ResearchRetail Report|Winter 202416Nicole LarsonManager,National Retail Research|U.S.Conclusio

67、n The changing economic landscape continues to reshape consumer behavior,with shoppers becoming more price-sensitive and brand-neutral.As we look ahead to 2025,retailers must consider consumer motivations,integrate data-driven insights and innovative solutions and focus on digital promotions and per

68、sonalized offers to stay competitive and drive growth.Overall,economic adjustments,demand for essential and experiential purchases,and improved shopping experiences will keep consumer spending steady going into 2025.17Colliers U.S.ResearchThis document has been prepared by Colliers International for

69、 advertising and general information only.Colliers International makes no guarantees,representations or warranties of any kind,expressed or implied,regarding the information including,but not limited to,warranties of content,accuracy and reliability.Any interested party should undertake their own in

70、quiries as to the accuracy of the information.Colliers International excludes unequivocally all inferred or implied terms,conditions and warranties arising out of this document and excludes all liability for loss and damages arising there from.This publication is the copyrighted property of Colliers International and/or its licensor(s).2024.All rights Solanki National Director,Retail Services&Practice Groups Colliers|U.S.+1 415 288 7871 Nicole Larson Manager,National Retail Research Colliers|U.S.+1 954 652 4602