《經合組織：2024年拉美地區經濟展望報告：為可持續發展融資（英文版）（262頁）.pdf》由會員分享，可在線閱讀，更多相關《經合組織：2024年拉美地區經濟展望報告：為可持續發展融資（英文版）（262頁）.pdf（262頁珍藏版）》請在三個皮匠報告上搜索。

1、Latin American Economic Outlook 2024 FINANCING SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT Latin American Economic Outlook2024FINANCING SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENTThis work is published under the responsibility of the Secretary-General of the OECD,the President of the CorporacinAndina de Fomento(CAF)and the President of th

2、e European Commission.The opinions expressed and argumentsemployed herein do not necessarily reflect the official views of the Member countries of the OECD,the members of itsDevelopment Centre,those of the Corporacin Andina de Fomento(CAF),or of the European Union and its MemberStates,or the Member

3、States of the United Nations.The names of countries and territories and representation used in this joint publication follow the practice of the OECD.This document,as well as any data and map included herein,are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty overany territory,to the delimitation

4、of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory,city or area.Please cite this publication as:OECD et al.(2024),Latin American Economic Outlook 2024:Financing Sustainable Development,OECD Publishing,Paris,https:/doi.org/10.1787/c437947f-en.ISBN 978-92-64-81213-0(print)ISBN

5、978-92-64-57271-3(PDF)ISBN 978-92-64-83786-7(HTML)Latin American Economic OutlookISSN 2072-5159(print)ISSN 2072-5140(online)CAF Reference Number:CAF-513i-2024 ECLAC Reference Number:LC/TS.2024/125 European UnionISBN 978-92-68-22577-6(PDF)Catalogue number:MN-01-24-008-EN-N(PDF)ISBN 978-92-68-22578-3(

6、print)Catalogue number:MN-01-24-008-EN-C(print)Photo credits:Cover design by Aida Buenda using images from SCorrigenda to OECD publications may be found at:https:/www.oecd.org/en/publications/support/corrigenda.html.OECD/CAF/EUROPEAN UNION 2024Attribution 3.0 IGO(CC BY 3.0 IGO)This work is made avai

7、lable under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO licence.By using this work,you accept to be bound by the terms of this licence(https:/creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/).Attribution you must cite the work.Translations you must cite the original work,identify changes to the original and ad

8、d the following text:In the event of any discrepancy between the original work and the translation,only the text of original work should be considered valid.Adaptations you must cite the original work and add the following text:This is an adaptation of an original work by the OECD,CAF and the Europe

9、an Union.The opinions expressed and arguments employed in this adaptation should not be reported as representing the official views of the OECD or of its Member countries,those of the members of CAF,or of the European Union and its Member States.Third-party material the licence does not apply to thi

10、rd-party material in the work.If using such material,you are responsible for obtaining permission from the third party and for any claims of infringement.You must not use the OECDs or CAFs or European Unions respective logo,visual identity or cover image without express permission or suggest the OEC

11、D or CAF or the European Union endorse your use of the work.Any dispute arising under this licence shall be settled by arbitration in accordance with the Permanent Court of Arbitration(PCA)Arbitration Rules 2012.The seat of arbitration shall be Paris(France).The number of arbitrators shall be one.3

12、LATIN AMERICAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2024 OECD/CAF/EUROPEAN UNION 2024 Foreword Since 2007,each edition of the annual Latin American Economic Outlook(LEO)analyses one of the multiple challenges faced by the Latin America and the Caribbean(LAC)region in its transition towards sustainable and inclusive dev

13、elopment,comparing LACs performance against its peers,suggesting policy recommendations and providing examples for policy learning.The LEO benefits from the expertise and inputs of several institutions.In 2011,the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean joined the OECD

14、 as co-author,as did the Development Bank of Latin America and the Caribbean in 2013,and the European Commission in 2018.This 17th LEO,Financing Sustainable Development,maps and analyses the regions various sources of financing in a context of tight fiscal space,unpacking the options for funding dev

15、elopment agendas better at national,regional and international levels.It provides policy recommendations for governments to improve tax collection,fiscal expenditure and the management of public debt.It stresses the strategic role of the private sector and how further developing financial markets ca

16、n help channel more private investment towards development goals.Finally,the report underscores the necessity for stronger international partnerships to accelerate the mobilisation of international resources towards the regions sustainable development.4 LATIN AMERICAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2024 OECD/CAF/

17、EUROPEAN UNION 2024 Acknowledgements Partners of this report are the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean(ECLAC),the Development Bank of Latin America and the Caribbean(CAF),the European Commission(EC)and the Development Centre of the Organisation for Economic Co-op

18、eration and Development(OECD).This report is supported by the Directorate-General for International Partnerships of the European Commission(INTPA).The contribution of the OECD Development Centre to this report was led and managed by Sebastin Nieto-Parra,Head of the Centres Latin America and the Cari

19、bbean(LAC)Unit.Co-ordination was led by Olivia Cuq and Ren Orozco,Policy Analyst and Economist respectively at the same Unit,under the guidance of Ragnheiur Eln rnadttir,Director of the OECD Development Centre,and Federico Bonaglia,Deputy Director of the OECD Development Centre.ECLACs contribution w

20、as led by Marco Llins,Director of the Production,Productivity and Management Division,Daniel Titelman,Director of the Economic Development Division and Sebastin Rovira,Economic Affairs Officer in Charge of the Innovation and New Technologies Unit,under the guidance of Jos Manuel Salazar-Xirinachs,Ex

21、ecutive Secretary of ECLAC.The contribution from CAF was led by Veronica Frisancho Robles,Chief Economist,Ignacio Corlazzoli,Responsible for Resource Mobilisation and Global Partnerships Management,and Reinier Schliesser,Senior Economist-Acting Director,Unit of Macroeconomic Studies,under the guidan

22、ce of Sergio Daz-Granados,Executive President of CAF.The European Commission contribution was led by Diana Montero Melis,Deputy Head of Unit at the Directorate-General for International Partnerships of the European Commission(INTPA)and Marc Vothknecht(INTPA),under the guidance of Olivier Luyckx,form

23、er Head of Unit-South America and Regional Operations,Felice Zaccheo,Head of Unit-Regional Programmes for Latin America and the Caribbean,and Felix Fernndez-Shaw,Director for Latin America and the Caribbean and Relations with all Overseas Countries and Territories(INTPA).The report benefited from th

24、e research,drafting and fruitful collaboration among various authors,including Mara Carolina Arcila(OECD),Els Berghmans(EC),Carl Bernadac(AFD),MariePierre Bourzai(AFD),Laura Buchet(OECD),Adriana Caicedo(OECD),Regina Casillas Rodrguez(OECD),Luis Cecchi(OECD),Chiara Cirignaco(EC),Olivia Cuq(OECD),Rita

25、 Da Costa(OECD),Victoria de la Puente(OECD),Jimena Durn(CAF),Sofia Faurie(OECD),Alessandro Ferrario(EC),Eleonore Fignolet(EC),Sonia Garca Lorenzana(OECD),Martn Grandes(OECD),Laura Gutirrez Cadena(OECD),Rodolfo Lazarich(EC),Martina Lejtreger(OECD),Oswaldo Lpez(CAF),Carlos Maldonado(ECLAC),Xavier Manc

26、ero(ECLAC),Thomas Manfredi(OECD),Diana Meja(CAF),Nathalia Montoya Gonzlez(OECD),Mariana Navarro(OECD),Sebastin Nieto Parra(OECD),Esteban Prez(ECLAC),Ren Orozco(OECD),Noel Prez(ECLAC),Zoe Pigasse(OECD),Ramn Pineda(ECLAC),Claudia Robles(ECLAC),Callum Ryan(OECD),Daniel Titelman(ECLAC),Manuel Toledo(CAF

27、),Francisco Villarreal(ECLAC),Mara Jos Zambrano(AFD)and Juan Vzquez Zamora(OECD).Rosario Hernando Cruz(OECD)provided invaluable administrative support throughout the elaboration of the report.A group of OECD experts and colleagues have been particularly active and supportive during the production pr

28、ocess,providing views,inputs and comments.We would like to highlight the support of Michael Abendschein,Jens Arnold,Julia Benn,Marisa Berbegal,Bert Brys,Magdalena Burtscher,Aida Caldera,Pietrangelo De Biase,Gabriel Di Paolantonio,Luisa Dressler,Charlotte Dubald,Abdoulaye 5 LATIN AMERICAN ECONOMIC OU

29、TLOOK 2024 OECD/CAF/EUROPEAN UNION 2024 Fabregas,Camilo Gamba,Paula Garda,Jason Gagnon,Pilar Garrido,Antonio Gomes,Alberto Gonzalez,Andrea Grifoni,Paul Horrocks,Felix Hugger,Raphaela Hyee,Kentaro Kato,Fatos Koc,Horacio Levy,Mario Lpez Roldn,Alejandra Medina,Chiara Monticone,Pierce OReilly,Lorenzo Pa

30、vone,Sarah Perret,Ccilia Piemonte,Luca Policino,Monika Queisser,Emma Raiteri,Claudia Ramirez,Yannic Rehm,Katherine Scrivens,Daniela Sena,Micheal Sicsic,Joseph Stead,Yung Tang,and John-David Tochon.The content of the report was enriched by constructive feedback received during an informal consultatio

31、n meeting with the LAC countries and members of the OECD Development Centre Governing Board on 21 February 2024;a virtual Experts Meeting on 16 and 17 April 2024;and a private-sector consultation meeting that took place on 11 April 2024.In addition to the LAC delegates to the Governing Board of the

32、OECD Development Centre,we are particularly grateful to the experts,academics,private-sector representatives and other public servants who joined us during the Experts Meeting,the private-sector consultation meeting and informal meetings:Alberto Arenas(ECLAC),Nour Barnat(UNCTAD),Romy Caldern(ALIDE),

33、Javier Carbajal Galarza(ALIDE),Anderson Caputo(IDB),Andrea Costafreda(Oxfam),Joana Conde(EIB),Eric David(French delegation to the OECD),Francisco Duque(Financial Superintendency,Colombia),Alejandra del Mar Dussn Zuluaga(IDB),Andrs Felipe Espejo Rivera(ECLAC),Ernesto Espndola(ECLAC),Almudena Fernndez

34、(UNDP),Juan Huitzilihuitl Flores Zendejas(University of Geneva),Sebastin Garca Andrade(Central Bank of Colombia),Chris Garroway(UN),Martin Grandes(Universidad de Buenos Aires),Felipe Andrs Guerra Cuadrado(Financial Superintendency,Colombia),Petra Kynclova(UNCTAD),Eirini Koutra(EIB),Kristin Lang(EIB)

35、,Jos Ignacio Lpez(ANIF),Juan Martnez(IDB),Baptiste Mesa(AFD),Mara Luisa Montero Marinho(ECLAC),Natalia Moreno Rigollot(Telefnica),Hugo opo(The World Bank),Jos Antonio Ocampo(Columbia University),Anu Peltola(UNCTAD),Javier Prez(Central Bank of Spain),Fazia Pusterla(IDB),Andrea Repetto(Pontificia Univ

36、ersidad Catlica de Chile),Nuria Rodrguez Aller(COFIDES),Jos Antonio Sanahuja(Universidad Complutense de Madrid),Isabel Fernndez Sarabia(EIB),Ricardo Santos(EIB),Paola Subacchi(Sciences Po),Luciana Trindade de Aguiar(UNDP),Andrea Trujillo(Financial Superintendency,Colombia),Oscar Valencia(IDB),Ana Va

37、lero(Telefnica),Marta Vegas(Telefnica),Guido Zack(Fundar)and Nancy Eugenia Zamudio Gmez(Central Bank of Colombia).The country notes benefited from constructive inputs,scrutiny and verification by delegations to the OECD from Chile,Colombia,Costa Rica and Mexico,as well as the embassies in France of

38、Argentina,Brazil,Dominican Republic,Ecuador,El Salvador,Guatemala,Panama,Paraguay,Peru and Uruguay.OECD delegations and embassies also co-ordinated the relevant inputs from different national ministries and governmental areas.The OECD Development Centre also expresses its sincere gratitude to the Ag

39、ence franaise de dveloppement(AFD),the Departamento Nacional de Planeacin(DNP)of Colombia,the European Union,the Spanish Ministry of Foreign Affairs,the Swiss Agency for Development and Co-operation,Telefnica,and Universidad del Rosario for their support of the Latin American Economic Outlook report

40、.Finally,many thanks go to the Publications and Communications Division of the OECD Development Centre,in particular Aida Buendia,Delphine Grandrieux,Elizabeth Nash,Henri-Bernard Solignac-Lecomte and Felix Zimmermann,for their steadfast patience and expedient work on the production of this report an

41、d associated materials.The authors also sincerely appreciate the editing and proofreading activities undertaken by Mary Bortin and Jill Gaston;the co-ordination of the Spanish translation by Alejandro Barranco,Julia Gregory and Alexander Summerfield;the Spanish editing and proofreading services by L

42、iliana Tafur and the infographics design by Milagros Gastaldi.6 LATIN AMERICAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2024 OECD/CAF/EUROPEAN UNION 2024 Editorial The Latin American Economic Outlook 2024:Financing Sustainable Development is the product of longstanding co-operation between the OECD,the United Nations Econo

43、mic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean,the Development Bank of Latin America and the Caribbean,and the European Commission.This 17th edition focuses on how Latin American and Caribbean(LAC)countries can mobilise resources to tackle socio-economic challenges and promote economic developme

44、nt,energy transitions and growth,in line with the Sustainable Development Goals.It offers policy recommendations to increase spending efficiency,optimise budget allocation,improve access to finance,and boost productivity.The Outlook highlights that countries can improve public spending,tax collectio

45、n,and the way they raise and manage public debt.Better targeted spending towards households and businesses most in need would enhance value for money,and citizens and businesses trust in government.Optimising the tax administration and tax revenues would improve the states capacity to strengthen ins

46、titutions,enable the provision of better public services,minimise distortions to entrepreneurship,and promote equality of opportunities.Financial systems with more depth,efficiency and better access can provide citizens and businesses in LAC countries with opportunities to increase investments.Count

47、ries in the region have made significant progress in improving depth and access to finance.Domestic credit to the private sector rose from 22%of GDP in 2000 to 50%of GDP in 2022.Account ownership nearly doubled from 29%in 2011 to 57%in 2021 for people aged 15 or above.To maintain this positive traje

48、ctory,the Outlook recommends investing in digital innovation and digital literacy,and expanding market finance.Digital banks and payments have increased in importance,while financial literacy remains limited.Market capitalisation is at 36%of GDP,compared with 65%in OECD countries,with large companie

49、s accounting for a large share of it.Expanding fixed-income and equity markets,including venture capital and private equity,would boost innovation and productivity.Innovative financial instruments,such as green,social,sustainability and sustainability-linked bonds,catastrophe bonds,and debt-for-natu

50、re swaps,could mobilise additional resources,though further progress in the regulation and the supervision of these tools will be necessary.Renewed regional and international partnerships will be important to mobilise greater resources in LAC.This includes the EU-LAC Global Gateway Investment Agenda

51、,which aims to mobilise EUR 45 billion investment in LAC by 2027.Better alignment among national,regional,and multilateral development banks and other capital market actors is key to achieve this.7 LATIN AMERICAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2024 OECD/CAF/EUROPEAN UNION 2024 In the coming months,the LAC region

52、has an opportunity to bring its perspective to the international debate on the transformation of the international financial architecture,including through the follow-up to the Paris Pact for People and the Planet,and at the Finance in Common Summit and the United Nations Fourth International Confer

53、ence on Financing for Development.We stand ready to work together to support the regions efforts,and trust that this report provides a solid basis for the ambitious policy dialogue that is needed at national,regional and international levels.Mathias Cormann Secretary-General,OECD Sergio Daz-Granados

54、 Executive President,CAF Development Bank of Latin America and the Caribbean Jos Manuel Salazar-Xirinachs Executive Secretary,ECLAC Jutta Urpilainen European Commissioner for International Partnerships 8 LATIN AMERICAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2024 OECD/CAF/EUROPEAN UNION 2024 Table of contents Foreword 3 A

55、cknowledgements 4 Editorial 6 Executive summary 12 Abbreviation and acronyms 14 Overview 17 1 Structural socio-economic challenges and financing conditions 33 Introduction 35 Weak growth in LAC points to the need to address structural challenges 36 Persistent challenges are more difficult to address

56、 when there is limited room for demand-side policies 41 Fiscal space remains limited while the region undergoes fiscal consolidation 43 Social conditions and poverty:A multi-dimensional perspective 47 The role of public and private financing in closing development gaps 57 Policy recommendations 66 N

57、otes 68 References 69 2 Public finance for development 79 Introduction 81 Trends in public spending in LAC 81 Towards greater equity,efficiency and simplicity of taxation systems 85 Rethinking debt management and strengthening fiscal frameworks 98 A strengthened fiscal pact to sustain long-term reve

58、nue mobilisation 105 Policy recommendations 108 Notes 110 References 111 3 Rallying financial market resources for development 119 Introduction 121 The functioning of the banking system in LAC 121 Challenges and opportunities for greater financial inclusion 129 Boosting financing through public deve

59、lopment finance institutions 140 9 LATIN AMERICAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2024 OECD/CAF/EUROPEAN UNION 2024 Deepening capital markets in LAC 145 Policy recommendations 161 Notes 163 References 164 4 International finance and partnerships to catalyse international resources 175 Introduction 177 Navigating a

60、 challenging international financial context 178 Unlocking the potential of international financial flows 184 Scaling up debt tools for financing the sustainable development agenda 198 Policy recommendations 208 References 211 5 Country notes 223 Readers guide 225 Argentina 232 Brazil 234 Chile 236

61、Colombia 238 Costa Rica 240 Dominican Republic 242 Ecuador 244 El Salvador 246 Guatemala 248 Mexico 250 Panama 252 Paraguay 254 Peru 256 Uruguay 258 FIGURES Figure 1.Labour productivity in LAC as a percentage of OECD labour productivity per hour worked,1990-2023 17 Figure 2.Distribution of the LAC p

62、opulation,by household informality status,latest available year 18 Figure 3.Average tax structure as a%of total tax revenues in the LAC region and the OECD,2022 20 Figure 4.Debt service-to-tax revenues ratio in LAC,2012 and 2022 21 Figure 5.Domestic credit to the private sector as percentage of GDP

63、and financial depth in LAC,2022 22 Figure 6.Access to homeownership loans by the degree of households informality in selected LAC countries 23 Figure 7.Concentration of equity markets in LAC,2019 and 2024 24 Figure 8.Currency composition and average maturity of corporate bonds issued by country grou

64、p,2015-23 25 Figure 9.Annual venture capital investment in LAC,2016-23 26 Figure 10.Distribution of financing types and financial instruments targeting green,digital and gender dimensions offered to MSMEs by DFIs in LAC,2023 27 Figure 11.Components of external financing flows to the LAC region,2011-

65、22 28 Figure 12.International GSSS bond issuance in LAC by type,as a%of total and by issuer,2014-23 29 Figure 1.1.Labour productivity in LAC as a percentage of OECD labour productivity per hour worked,1990-2023 36 Figure 1.2.Total factor productivity(TFP)in LAC and OECD,1950-2023(1950=100)37 Figure

66、1.3.Growth accounting(growth decomposition)in LAC,1950-2023 38 Figure 1.4.Potential GDP per capita growth in LAC and in advanced economies 39 Figure 1.5.Sectoral labour productivity(PPP adjusted)in LAC relative to OECD,2017 40 Figure 1.6.Monthly inflation in LAC economies under different inflation r

67、egimes 41 10 LATIN AMERICAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2024 OECD/CAF/EUROPEAN UNION 2024 Figure 1.7.Total portfolio flows,May 2022-May 2024(equity and debt)42 Figure 1.8.FDI inflows in LAC as a%total world FDI,1990-2023 43 Figure 1.9.Overall and primary fiscal balance in central governments in LAC as a%of GDP

68、,2010-23 44 Figure 1.10.Changes in tax-to-GDP ratio in LAC countries by main tax heading,2022 45 Figure 1.11.Public debt dynamics in LAC,%of GDP 46 Figure 1.12.Monetary poverty rates in selected Latin American countries,2001-22 47 Figure 1.13.Impact of inflation on the most vulnerable people in LAC

69、48 Figure 1.14.Distribution of the LAC population,by household informality status,latest available year 51 Figure 1.15.Poverty rates of workers in LAC by informality status 52 Figure 1.16.Income inequalities in LAC countries,2002-22 53 Figure 1.17.SDG targets by their likelihood of achievement in LA

70、C by 2030 58 Figure 1.18.Public and private spending on social protection programmes in LAC,2018 62 Figure 1.19.Private vs.public investment as a share of total investment in LAC and OECD,2019 63 Figure 1.20.Investment in infrastructure by subsector in selected LAC countries,2021 64 Figure 1.21.Shar

71、e of R&D investment by funding source in LAC and other territories,2011-20 65 Figure 2.1.Central government total expenditure as%of GDP,by function and by country 82 Figure 2.2.Government spending on education per student,2000-18,vs.PISA maths scores,2022 84 Figure 2.3.Fossil fuel subsidies as a pro

72、portion of GDP(%)85 Figure 2.4.Tax-to-GDP ratios and Equivalent Fiscal Pressure in the LAC region 86 Figure 2.5.Average tax structure in the LAC region and the OECD,2022 87 Figure 2.6.Corporate effective tax rates in LAC,2021 89 Figure 2.7.EATRs under standard tax treatment and investment tax incent

73、ives in the corresponding sector 91 Figure 2.8.Recurrent taxes on immovable property in LAC 92 Figure 2.9.Environmentally related tax revenues in LAC countries,by main tax base,2022 95 Figure 2.10.Public debt by legislation and currency as%of GDP,2021 99 Figure 2.11.Public debt by remaining maturity

74、 as%of GDP,2021 100 Figure 2.12.External public debt stock by creditor(public and private),2022 101 Figure 2.13.Number of positive and negative sovereign credit rating actions by country,2023 102 Figure 2.14.Debt service-to-tax revenues ratio in LAC,2012 and 2022 103 Figure 2.15.Ratio of LAC central

75、 government interest payments to expenditure in key fields,2010-23 average 104 Figure 2.16.Motivation to pay taxes vs.satisfaction with public services in LAC 106 Figure 3.1.Domestic credit to the private sector as percentage of GDP,and financial depth in LAC,2022 122 Figure 3.2.Access to formal sav

76、ing and borrowing mechanisms in LAC,2021 123 Figure 3.3.Reasons declared by adults in LAC for not having a bank account,2021 124 Figure 3.4.Financial inclusion in LAC by firm size,2009-20 125 Figure 3.5.Interest rate spreads between loans to SMEs and to large firms,2020-22 126 Figure 3.6.Banking sys

77、tem profitability in selected LAC countries,2021 127 Figure 3.7.Banking system soundness indicators in LAC,2022 128 Figure 3.8.Credit quality in LAC,2022 129 Figure 3.9.Access to homeownership loans in selected LAC countries,poorest and richest quintiles 131 Figure 3.10.Access to homeownership loans

78、 by the degree of households informality in selected LAC countries 132 Figure 3.11.Informality and financial inclusion,2021:Partial correlations 133 Figure 3.12.Growth of digital payments and neobanking in LAC 135 Figure 3.13.Fintech users and markets served by digital banks in LAC 136 Figure 3.14.U

79、nderstanding of interest rates and inflation in LAC,2023 138 Figure 3.15.Institutional mandate of DFIs and financing types offered to MSMEs in LAC,2023 142 Figure 3.16.Evolution of guarantee funds and coverage of SMEs by guarantee schemes in LAC 143 Figure 3.17.PDBs climate strategy and main obstacl

80、es to climate financing 144 Figure 3.18.Market capitalisation and stock turnover ratio in LAC,2022 or latest year available 146 Figure 3.19.Concentration of equity markets in LAC,2019 and 2024 147 Figure 3.20.Newly listed and delisted companies in LAC,2000-23 148 Figure 3.21.Ownership concentration

81、and public equity holdings by type of investor,2023 148 Figure 3.22.Investment by type of asset in LAC,Q3 2023 149 Figure 3.23.Average venture capital deal size by region and annual venture capital investment in LAC,2016-23 150 Figure 3.24.VC investment by industry vertical in LAC(2016-23)and by reg

82、ion(2023)151 Figure 3.25.Domestic vs.non-domestic venture capital investors in LAC,2016-23 151 Figure 3.26.Domestic corporate and public bond issuance in LAC,2015-23 152 Figure 3.27.Domestic corporate bond issuers in LAC and average amount issued,2015-23 153 11 LATIN AMERICAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2024 O

83、ECD/CAF/EUROPEAN UNION 2024 Figure 3.28.Currency composition of non-financial corporate bonds issued by country group 2015-23 154 Figure 3.29.Average maturity of corporate bonds issued by country group and sector,2015-23 155 Figure 3.30.Share by country in MILA total traded volume,2012-18 156 Figure

84、 3.31.Market capitalisation and number of issuers of nuam exchange by country,August 2024 157 Figure 3.32.LAC public and corporate international bond issuance,2019-23 158 Figure 3.33.LAC public and corporate international bond issuance by country,2023 159 Figure 3.34.CEMBI spread(basis points)year c

85、hange by region,2023 160 Figure 3.35.Number of issuers of American Depositary Receipts in LAC by country,March 2024 161 Figure 4.1.Cumulative share of multilateral financing commitments in LAC,2022 183 Figure 4.2.ODA as a share of GNI,average per region and income group,2000-22 185 Figure 4.3.Chinas

86、 development finance to LAC,2005-23 188 Figure 4.4.Components of external financing flows to the LAC region,2011-22 188 Figure 4.5.Mobilised private finance by official development interventions per region,2012-22 190 Figure 4.6.Mobilised private finance by official development interventions to LAC

87、by sector,2022 191 Figure 4.7.Mobilised private finance by official development interventions to LAC,2020-22 192 Figure 4.8.TOSSD disbursements from the EU institutions to LAC 2019-22 194 Figure 4.9.Remittances to LAC countries as a share of GDP,2003-22 196 Figure 4.10.Sectors receiving philanthropi

88、c financing in LAC vs.other regions,2017-22 198 Figure 4.11.International bond issuance in LAC:GSSS by type and as percentage of total,2014-23 199 Figure 4.12.LACs GSSS and conventional bond issuance,by type of issuer,2020-23 202 INFOGRAPHICS Infographic 1.1.To finance the development priorities,lar

89、ger sources of funding are needed in LAC 34 Infographic 2.1.LAC needs to improve tax collection,spending and debt management 80 Infographic 3.1.Financial markets can mobilise additional resources from the private sector in LAC 120 Infographic 4.1.International financing and partnerships can catalyse

90、 more foreign resources in LAC 176 TABLES Table 2.1.Carbon taxes,ETS and carbon credit markets in LAC 96 Table 4.1.The priorities of selected LAC countries on financing for development 179 Table 4.2.Overview of taxonomy initiatives in selected LAC countries 207 BOXES Box 1.1.Measuring multi-dimensio

91、nal poverty 49 Box 1.2.Measuring the financing gap for sustainable development 59 Box 1.3.Key policy messages 67 Box 2.1.OECD recommendations on budgetary governance 83 Box 2.2.The new global minimum corporate tax rate can significantly impact LAC tax incentives 91 Box 2.3.OECD recommendations on ci

92、tizen participation 107 Box 2.4.Key policy messages 109 Box 3.1.OECD Recommendation on Financial Literacy 139 Box 3.2.Finance in Common 141 Box 3.3.How are PDBs in LAC supporting the climate transition?144 Box 3.4.Key policy messages 162 Box 4.1.Total Official Support for Sustainable Development 186

93、 Box 4.2.Unlocking strategic investments:The example of the Latin America and the Caribbean Investment Facility(LACIF)195 Box 4.3.The EUs Global Green Bond Initiative(GGBI)200 Box 4.4.Key policy messages 209 12 LATIN AMERICAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2024 OECD/CAF/EUROPEAN UNION 2024 Executive summary Latin

94、 American and Caribbean(LAC)countries need vast financial resources to achieve sustainable development.For instance,the spending gap for the Sustainable Development Goals currently is estimated to average USD 99 billion per year.Mobilising these resources requires a co-ordinated strategy by public a

95、nd private sectors at national,regional and international levels.LAC faces a considerable financing gap,aggravated by the socio-economic context The socio-economic context hinders efforts to mobilise more domestic revenue.Economic growth has been modest due in part to long-term structural challenges

96、 such as low productivity.In 2023,average labour productivity in LAC amounted to 33%of that of the OECD,down from 40%in 1990.Poverty remains high in LAC,representing 26.8%of the regions total population in 2024,while extreme poverty continues to affect one in ten people in the region.High inflation

97、has exacerbated the poverty situation,as for people in extreme poverty,the price of the basket of goods consumed was 20%higher in 2023 than in 2021,a difference much greater than the 13.1%increase recorded in the general price levels of the region.More than half of employees in LAC remain in informa

98、l jobs,with low pay,limited social insurance and heightened vulnerabilities for women and youth.There is little space for demand-side policies to support aggregate demand.Many countries are maintaining a tight monetary framework to keep inflation expectations anchored and undergoing a fiscal consoli

99、dation phase,after fiscal space decreased significantly following the pandemic.LAC countries will need to improve the way they collect taxes,spend,and manage public debt LAC tax revenues averaged 21.5%of GDP in 2022,below the OECDs 34.0%,constraining governments ability to finance development agenda

100、s.The regions tax structures are characterised by high reliance on indirect taxes(48%of total taxes,mostly VAT),which tend to be more regressive than direct taxes.Policies should focus on increasing revenues from personal income tax,rationalising tax expenditures,exploring additional revenue sources

101、 such as recurrent taxes on immovable property,health and environmentally related taxes,fostering a tax-paying culture,and improving tax administration.The effectiveness of spending should also be improved:expenditure tends to be short-term and pro-cyclical,decreasing during downturns(especially cap

102、ital investments)and increasing during upswings(especially current spending).Improving debt management can help free up revenue for development.Public debt levels in the region remained high in 2023,though heterogenous ranging from less than 40%of GDP to more than 100%with a high cost of debt servic

103、ing.While OECD countries reduced their debt service from 6.4%of tax revenue in 2012 to 4.8%in 2022,in LAC it increased from 9.8%to 12.2%.Over the past decade,interest payments have surpassed core government expenditures.In some countries,debt service has exceeded the spending on education and been u

104、p to two times that on healthcare and on capital investment.13 LATIN AMERICAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2024 OECD/CAF/EUROPEAN UNION 2024 Deeper and more innovative financial markets can help mobilise more private resources A well-developed financial system,providing fundamental services such as loans,saving

105、s products and insurance,can help individuals and businesses smooth consumption,invest in physical and human capital,and promote entrepreneurship.Here,policies should focus on improving three dimensions:i)financial systems lack depth,with domestic credit to the private sector reaching 50%of GDP in 2

106、022,below the 80%in other regions;ii)access is constrained,particularly for the most vulnerable,with account ownership standing at 57%in 2021,below the OECD average of 94%.There are significant disparities in access to credit between formal and informal households.For example,in some cases,access to

107、 housing loans for informal households can be up to six times lower compared to formal households;iii)efficiency is low,with banks exhibiting high net interest margins of 5%in 2021,exceeding the OECD average of 1.7%.Capital markets equity and debt in LAC remain small,heterogeneous and concentrated.P

108、olicies should aim to diversify funding sources,enhance financial stability and support long-term investments.In 2022,equity market capitalisation reached 35.9%of GDP,below OECD levels(64.7%).Most LAC markets are more concentrated than that of Korea,except for Brazil and Chile,which are among the le

109、ast concentrated in the region;however,all of them still have higher concentration levels than the New York Stock Exchange.Meanwhile,in 2023,the outstanding amount of corporate bonds in LAC represented around 2%of the global total.Regional debt markets are focused on the public sector,accounting for

110、 81%of local issuances over 2015-2023.In the same period,firms in LAC issued bonds mainly in foreign currency(58%of corporate issues),which exposes them to exchange rate risk,but with longer maturities than those in emerging markets(9.3 years vs.5.2 years on average).Policies should aim to boost the

111、 participation of institutional investors,modernise regulations,enhance financial literacy,and deepen regional financial integration.Development Finance Institutions(DFIs)can channel more resources towards development goals,addressing financial market depth issues,redistributing risks,and fostering

112、inclusive markets.Their deep local market knowledge and strong connections with private and public sectors are key to developing projects and facilitating capital flows.34%of DFIs have a specific mandate to support the financial inclusion of micro-,small and medium-sized enterprises through instrume

113、nts like guarantee schemes and loans,but only 19%of the financial instruments they propose address the green transition,gender equality and digital transformation or innovation.A unified regional agenda can bring LACs perspective to global financing challenges,in co-ordination with international par

114、tners The Fourth International Conference on Financing for Development in 2025 is an opportunity for the region to adopt a strategic approach.The conference will enable the design of reforms to promote development financing in key areas,such as improving liquidity,measuring risk,mobilising private f

115、inance,and enhancing co-ordination among development providers.A unified regional agenda can not only bring forward LACs perspective on international financing challenges,but also trigger discussions on innovative risk-sharing tools,blended finance,and improved regulations to strengthen LACs financi

116、al landscape.International co-operation will be key to scaling up additional resources,such as the funds pledged by the Global Gateway Initiative or debt instruments.Financing instruments such as green,social,sustainability,and sustainability-linked(GSSS)bonds,catastrophe bonds,debt-for-nature swaps

117、,and natural disaster clauses can mobilise public and private investment where needs are greatest.Enhanced regulation and supervision through consolidated sustainable finance frameworks will be essential to ensure the effectiveness of these instruments and mitigate risks.14 LATIN AMERICAN ECONOMIC O

118、UTLOOK 2024 OECD/CAF/EUROPEAN UNION 2024 Abbreviation and acronyms AAAA Addis Ababa Action Agenda ADB Asian Development Bank AFD French Development Agency(Agence Franaise de Dveloppement)ADR American Depositary Receipt AECID Spanish Agency for International Development Co-operation AI Artificial int

119、elligence ALIDE Latin American Association of Development Financing Institutions ALMPs Active Labour Market Policies APEC Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation AR Autoregressive ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations B2C Business-to-Consumer BIICC Climate Change Indicator Indexed Bond BIS Bank for

120、 International Settlements BNCR Banco Nacional de Costa Rica BROU Banco Repblica Oriental del Uruguay CABEI Central American Bank for Economic Integration CAF Development Bank of Latin America(Corporacin Andina de Fomento)CAT Catastrophe bonds CBI Citizen by Investment programme CEESEG Central and E

121、astern Europe Stock Exchange Group CEMBI Corporate Emerging Markets Bond Index CIT Corporate income tax CIVs Collective investment vehicles CMIM Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralisation CPI Consumer Price Index CRA Credit Rating Agencies DAC Development Assistance Committee DFIs Development finance

122、 institutions DFNS Debt-for-nature swap DSSI Debt Service Suspension Initiative EAP East Asia and the Pacific EATR Effective average tax rate ECLAC United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean EFP Equivalent Fiscal Pressure EFSD+European Fund for Sustainable Development Plu

123、s EIB European Investment Bank EMBIG Emerging Markets Bond Index Global EMTR Effective marginal tax rate 15 LATIN AMERICAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2024 OECD/CAF/EUROPEAN UNION 2024 ERTR Environmentally related tax revenues ESG Environmental,Social,and Governance ETR Effective tax rate ETS Emissions trading

124、 systems EU European Union FfD4 Fourth International Conference on Financing for Development FDI Foreign Direct Investment FTA Free Trade Agreement G20 Group of 20 GDP Gross domestic product GEMs Global Emerging Markets GGBI Global Green Bond Initiative GGIA Global Gateway Investment Agenda GHG Gree

125、nhouse gas GMT Global minimum effective corporate tax rate GNI Gross national income GPGs Global public goods GSSS Green,social,sustainability,and sustainability-linked bonds HEI Higher Education Institutions HHI Herfindahl-Hirschman Index HP Hodrick-Prescott IBRD International Bank for Reconstructi

126、on and Development ICMA International Capital Market Association ICTs Information and Communication Technologies IDB Inter-American Development Bank IEA International Energy Agency IFAD International Fund for Agricultural Development IIF Institute of International Finance ILO International Labour Or

127、ganization IMF International Monetary Fund IPO Initial Public Offering ITID OECD Investment Tax Incentives Database KPI Key performance indicators LAC Latin America and the Caribbean LACIF Latin America and the Caribbean Investment Facility MDB Multilateral Development Bank MENA Middle East and Nort

128、h Africa Mercosur Common Market of the South(Mercado Comn del Sur)MILA Latin American Integrated Market MNEs Multinational enterprises MSCI Morgan Stanley Capital International MSMEs Micro,small and medium-sized enterprises MTFFS Medium-Term Fiscal Frameworks MXN Mexican pesos NAFTA North American F

129、ree Trade Agreement NDC Nationally Determined Contributions NDPs National Development Plans NFIS National Financial Inclusion Strategy NGO Non-governmental organisations NIM Net Interest Margin NPL Non-Performing Loan 16 LATIN AMERICAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2024 OECD/CAF/EUROPEAN UNION 2024 NYSE New York

130、 Stock Exchange ODA Official Development Assistance OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development OPHI Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative PAYG Pay-As-You-Go PHC Primary Health Care PPPs Public-Private Partnerships PDBs Public Development Banks PISA Programme for Internatio

131、nal Student Assessment PIT Personal income tax Q3 Third Quarter R&D Research and Development ROA Return on Assets SBIE Substance-Based Income Exclusion SDGs Sustainable Development Goals SDR Special Drawing Rights SIDS Small Island Developing States SLBs Sustainability-linked bonds SMEs Small and Me

132、dium-sized Enterprises SOCX Social Expenditure Database SPO Secondary Public Offering SPVs Special purpose vehicles SSA Sub-Saharan Africa SSC South-South co-operation SSBs Sugary-sweetened beverages SSC Social security contributions STR Statutory tax rate STT Standard tax treatment TFP Total Factor

133、 Productivity TFT Time for Trade TOSSD Total Official Support for Sustainable Development UN United Nations UNCTAD United Nations Conference on Trade and Development UNESCO United Nations Educational,Scientific and Cultural Organization UNICEF United Nations International Childrens Emergency Fund US

134、D United States dollar VAT Value Added Tax VC Venture Capital WFP World Food Programme WHO World Health Organization WTO World Trade Organization 17 LATIN AMERICAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2024 OECD/CAF/EUROPEAN UNION 2024 Overview The Latin America and Caribbean(LAC)region requires additional financial res

135、ources to tackle its significant socio-economic challenges and fulfil the development agendas.For instance,the spending gap for the main development priorities is currently estimated to average USD 99 billion per year(UNCTAD,20231).Mobilising the needed resources will require a co-ordinated strategy

136、 that includes the public and private sectors as well as innovative financing mechanisms and close co-ordination with international partners.The current socio-economic context makes it increasingly challenging to mobilise the necessary resources for LAC Low productivity growth continues to affect lo

137、ng-term economic growth in the region.Economic activity in LAC has slowed since 2023 due to cyclical dynamics and ongoing long-term structural challenges.In 2023,average labour productivity in LAC amounted to 33%of that of the OECD,below the 40%of 1990(Figure 1).Low productivity growth affects most

138、sectors of the economy,and much of the gap in labour productivity with advanced economies can be attributed to differences in total factor productivity.Figure 1.Labour productivity in LAC as a percentage of OECD labour productivity per hour worked,1990-2023 Note:LAC refers to a simple average that i

139、ncludes Argentina,Bolivia,Brazil,Chile,Colombia,Costa Rica,the Dominican Republic,Ecuador,Guatemala,Jamaica,Mexico,Paraguay,Peru,Trinidad and Tobago,Uruguay,and Venezuela.For the OECD,it is a simple average that includes its 38 member countries.Source:Authors elaboration based on(The Conference Boar

140、d,20242).StatLink 2 https:/stat.link/j5w6r4 051015202530354045%18 LATIN AMERICAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2024 OECD/CAF/EUROPEAN UNION 2024 The current context leaves little space for monetary and fiscal policies to support economic growth.Many LAC economies have maintained a tight monetary stance to keep i

141、nflation expectations anchored.As in the rest of the world,inflation in the region is converging towards the levels prior to the COVID-19 pandemic;after topping in the middle of 2022,inflation started to decrease in the second half of 2023 in most LAC countries.Monetary policy has been fundamental i

142、n taming headline inflation and keeping its expectations in check.Going forward,monetary authorities should continue to be cautious.The economies of the region are undergoing a fiscal consolidation phase,as LACs fiscal space has decreased significantly since the pandemic.As a result of macroeconomic

143、 dynamics and the ongoing fiscal consolidation efforts,the ratio of debt to gross domestic product(GDP)has begun to converge toward pre-pandemic levels.However,debt dynamics and fiscal accounts should continue to be closely monitored,and a credible fiscal framework should play a fundamental role.The

144、 socio-economic conditions are also complex,with persistent poverty and inflation.Although it has declined in recent decades,poverty remains high in LAC,accounting for 26.8%of the regions total population in 2024,while extreme poverty has remained relatively stable,affecting one in ten people in the

145、 region(ECLAC,20243).High and persistent inflation has aggravated the living conditions of Latin Americans and Caribbeans,especially the most vulnerable.1 Figure 2.Distribution of the LAC population,by household informality status,latest available year Percentages of the population Note:Data from la

146、test available year of each countrys household survey.They refer to 2013 for the Bahamas;to 2014 for Nicaragua and Trinidad and Tobago;to 2017 for Chile;to 2016 for Barbados;to 2018 for Argentina,Bolivia,the Dominican Republic,Paraguay and Uruguay;to 2019 for Brazil,Honduras,Jamaica and Peru;to 2020

147、 for Costa Rica and Mexico;to 2021 for Colombia and El Salvador;to 2022 for Suriname.Source:Authors elaboration based on(OECD,20244).StatLink 2 https:/stat.link/es7wtu Informal employment is widespread in the regions labour markets.In 2022,more than half of the workers in LAC were in informal employ

148、ment(55.7%),a slight improvement over 2010,when 59.4%of people employed were informal.Informality affects both men(55.9%)and women(55.4%),but in countries where overall informality is particularly high,women are much more likely than men to hold an informal job(ILO,20245).Informality affects the liv

149、ing standards not only of workers but also of the dependents living in the same household.Across LAC in recent years,64.9%of people lived in households where at least one of the principal earners held an informal job,42.5%in households depending entirely on informal employment and 22.4%in mixed hous

150、eholds with earners holding formal and informal jobs.People living in households 0102030405060708090100InformalMixedFormal%19 LATIN AMERICAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2024 OECD/CAF/EUROPEAN UNION 2024 where all earners were formal workers represented 25.1%of the population,although heterogeneity is high acro

151、ss the region(Figure 2).The mobilisation of public and private financing is essential to close development gaps in LAC.Persistent inequalities,vulnerability to climate change,and recent socio-economic disruptions demand a co-ordinated investment strategy focused on priority sectors aligned with prod

152、uctive development policies(ECLAC,20246).National Development Plans(NDPs)provide frameworks for effective resource allocation,supporting high-impact sectors critical for the regions resilience and fostering synergies between the public and private sectors.In this context,the social contract serves a

153、s a foundation for mobilising public and private resources by fostering inclusive and participatory governance that builds trust,strengthens fiscal systems,and aligns the interests of diverse stakeholders with long-term sustainable development goals(OECD et al.,20217).The private sectors involvement

154、,through innovative financing models,introduces scalability,innovation,and competitiveness,while supporting national development agendas.Despite existing fiscal constraints,aligning both public and private resources with sustainable development goals allows for transformative economic change in prio

155、rity sectors,enabling structural shifts essential for the regions solid and long-term growth.To achieve their development agendas LAC countries will need to improve the way they spend resources,collect taxes and manage public debt Optimising budget allocation and increasing spending efficiency can f

156、ree up additional resources.To finance their development agendas,governments must reallocate and implement strategic budgets that prioritise key sectors.For example,oil remains the most subsidised fossil fuel in LAC,sometimes benefiting high-income households and carbon-intensive industries.Improved

157、 budget design and co-ordinated budget implementation,together with data availability,can ensure that each development priority is adequately funded,at both the national and local levels.Tax revenues in LAC are currently insufficient to meet its development objectives.Tax revenues allow governments

158、to fund essential public services,infrastructure and social welfare programmes.However,in 2022,LACs tax revenues amounted to just 21.5%of GDP,ranging from 10.6%in Guyana to 33.3%of GDP in Brazil,below the OECD average of 34.0%(OECD et al.,20248).The regions tax structure does little to mitigate ineq

159、uality,as it remains heavily dependent on indirect taxes,which accounted for 48%of total taxes in 2022(32%in the OECD),with value-added tax a prominent amount.Personal income tax and social security contributions accounted for only 26.7%of LACs total tax revenues in 2022,compared to 48.4%in OECD cou

160、ntries.Conversely,corporate income tax contributed more in LAC(16%of total taxes)than in OECD countries(12%)(Figure 3)(OECD et al.,20248).LAC has an array of tax policy options that would help increase revenues and positively impact development agendas.Expanding recurrent taxes on immovable property

161、,which averaged 0.4%of GDP in LAC in 2022 compared to 1%in OECD countries,can raise revenues and promote wealth redistribution.Simplifying the tax process,ensuring efficient administration,and promoting fairness are crucial for improving tax collection and progressivity.Health taxes on tobacco,alcoh

162、ol,and sugary drinks can generate funds while reducing health risks and their long-term costs.Environmentally related taxes in LAC,averaging 0.9%of GDP compared to 1.8%in OECD countries,rely heavily on fuel taxes and energy subsidies.Expanding carbon taxes,carbon emissions trading systems and carbon

163、 credits could generate revenues and reduce emissions,provided protections for vulnerable populations are addressed.Additionally,reassessing high effective corporate tax rates and optimising incentives to pay taxes can help support investment and entrepreneurship.Currently,the effective average tax

164、rate for a given investment project is 23.9%,compared to 21.9%in OECD countries and 17.1%in 25 emerging economies(Hanappi et al.,20239).20 LATIN AMERICAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2024 OECD/CAF/EUROPEAN UNION 2024 Figure 3.Average tax structure as a%of total tax revenues in the LAC region and the OECD,2022 N

165、ote:The LAC average excludes Venezuela due to data issues.Ecuador is excluded from the LAC average for PIT and CIT revenues due to data quality issues.The OECD average represents the unweighted average of the 38 OECD member countries,which include Chile,Colombia,Costa Rica and Mexico.Source:(OECD et

166、 al.,20248).StatLink 2 https:/stat.link/xr8b45 Improving public debt management can help free up revenues for development purposes.In 2021,public debt levels across central governments in the region varied widely,ranging from 23%to 140%of GDP with heterogeneous aspects of debt composition,including

167、the currency of issuance,legislative frameworks and maturity profiles.In some cases,debt in domestic currency represented 66%to 95%of total debt,while in others,non-domestic currency issuances made up 70%to 90%of the total.Rising debt levels together with high interest rates have had an impact on de

168、bt service costs,constraining the fiscal space for development-oriented investments.In 2022,the debt service-to-tax revenue ratio in the region reached 12.2%,up from 9.8%in 2012 and above the OECD average of 4.8%(Figure 4).Over the past decade,interest payments on debt have surpassed core government

169、 expenditures in several countries,with debt service exceeding the spending on education and reaching two times that on healthcare and capital investment.9.216.32.117.528.619.86.8LAC23.612.00.924.820.810.77.2OECDPersonalincome taxCorporate income taxOther income taxesSocial security contributionsVal

170、ue-added taxOther taxes on goods and servicesOther taxes 21 LATIN AMERICAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2024 OECD/CAF/EUROPEAN UNION 2024 Figure 4.Debt service-to-tax revenues ratio in LAC,2012 and 2022 Source:Authors elaboration based(OECD et al.,20248)and(IMF,202310).StatLink 2 https:/stat.link/50tebv Well-de

171、veloped and inclusive financial markets are essential for channelling private resources towards development Financial markets are critical for economic growth and development.They provide individuals and businesses with access to essential services,such as loans,savings and insurance,and enable them

172、 to increase investment in physical and human capital and to smooth consumption.Financial systems in LAC are lagging behind,as they lack access,depth and efficiency.Financial depth in LAC is low,with domestic credit to the private sector reaching 50%of GDP in 2022,lagging behind other regions where

173、it exceeds 80%(Figure 5,Panel A).Similarly,bank deposits as a percentage of GDP stood at 55.1%for LAC in 2021,compared to 99.3%for OECD countries(Figure 5,Panel B).Although access to financial services has improved,with account ownership rising from 29.6%in 2011 to 57.2%in 2021,it remains below the

174、OECD average of 93.7%.Efficiency in the banking sector is limited,as it exhibits a net interest margin of 5.0%,above the OECD average of 1.7%.While this indicates profitability,it also signals costly credit due to various factors that vary between countries,such as high market concentration,high ris

175、ks,and inadequate regulatory frameworks.051015202530354045%2012202222 LATIN AMERICAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2024 OECD/CAF/EUROPEAN UNION 2024 Figure 5.Domestic credit to the private sector as percentage of GDP and financial depth in LAC,2022 Note:Figures for bank deposits as a percentage of GDP correspond

176、 to 2021 due to data availability.EAP=East Asia and the Pacific,SAS=South Asia,SSA=Sub-Saharan Africa,EU=European Union and GDP=gross domestic product.Source:Authors elaboration based on(World Bank,202411),World Development Indicators.StatLink 2 https:/stat.link/eapqt0 Inclusion is a fundamental asp

177、ect of a well-developed financial market;however,despite progress,significant gaps in financial inclusion persist in LAC.The regions countries have made considerable progress in increasing access to financing,but the financial system excludes some vulnerable groups.For instance,households with infor

178、mally employed members typically have worse access to financial products(Figure 6).The gap between formal and informal households varies considerably across countries.In Mexico,the disparity is the largest,with only 2.3%of informal households having access to homeownership loans,compared to 14.9%of

179、formal households.In Chile,6.4%of informal households have 6.4%access to homeownership loans,while formal households reach 15.6%.In countries with smaller gaps,such as the Dominican Republic,access remains very limited for formal,informal and mixed households.To enhance financial inclusion,digital i

180、nnovation and financial literacy can provide ways forward.Digital innovation is reshaping financial inclusion in LAC by overcoming traditional banking barriers,offering non-traditional solutions and expanding access.Between 2014 and 2021,the proportion of individuals aged 15 and older who made or re

181、ceived a digital payment rose from 35.9%to an average of 49%in LAC.Additionally,69%of digital banks clients in the region consist of previously unbanked and underbanked individuals and small and medium-sized enterprises,illustrating the sectors capacity to effectively reach underserved populations.I

182、mproving financial inclusion depends on advancing financial literacy.Financial literacy empowers informed decision-making and helps prevent pitfalls like over-indebtedness(OECD,202312).Financial literacy remains limited in LAC,with significant gender disparities.On average,27%of men and only 18%of w

183、omen understand what interest rates mean in nine selected countries,while 50%of men and 44%of women understand what inflation means.020406080100120%Panel B.Financial depth Domestic bank credit%GDPBank deposits%GDP0204060801001201401601802000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022%Pan

184、el A.Domestic credit to private sector as%of GDPEAPLACSASSSAEUOECD 23 LATIN AMERICAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2024 OECD/CAF/EUROPEAN UNION 2024 Figure 6.Access to homeownership loans by the degree of households informality in selected LAC countries Note:The figure is based on data from household surveys con

185、ducted in the selected countries.The surveys included a question about the respondents current housing status,with answers typically classified into three categories:homeowner,homeowner with a mortgage or tenant.The figure represents the percentage of individuals who indicated they are homeowners cu

186、rrently paying a mortgage,whether financed through a public or private financial institution.The data presented span multiple years across the eight LAC countries(2017-21),with certain datasets collected during the COVID-19 pandemic,which may have introduced variations in standard data collection me

187、thodologies.The data for Chile are from 2017,Colombia 2021,Costa Rica 2021,the Dominican Republic 2018,El Salvador 2021,Mexico 2020 and Uruguay 2018.Source:Authors calculations based on(OECD,202113)and national household surveys.StatLink 2 https:/stat.link/a2c9y7 Capital markets are still a largely

188、untapped resource to finance investments Capital markets,composed of equity and debt markets,offer firms and governments access to diverse funding sources.Equity and corporate domestic bond markets allow for the rise of long-term capital,provide saving opportunities for households,and support capita

189、l formation,investment diversification and risk management.In LAC,equity markets are reduced,lack liquidity and remain concentrated.In 2022,on average,market capitalisation in the region stood at 35.9%of GDP compared to 64.7%for OECD countries.Moreover,the stock turnover ratio indicates low levels o

190、f market liquidity,averaging 24%compared to 53.8%in OECD countries.In the region,the activity of equity markets is concentrated in both offerings and ownership and consists mostly of secondary public offerings.The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index for market capitalisation shows significant heterogeneity a

191、cross the region in terms of concentration(Figure 7,Panel A).Most LAC markets are more concentrated than those of Korea,the exceptions being Brazil and Chile,which are among the least concentrated in the region;however,all LAC markets still have higher concentration levels than the New York Stock Ex

192、change.Company ownership in LAC is considered highly concentrated,with the top 1%of shareholders owning,on average,46%of a companys total holdings,while in other regions it averages 31%(Figure 7,Panel B).LACs equity markets have shrunk in the last two decades due to a negative trend of net listings

193、as companies migrate to advanced markets,and access to medium-sized and small companies is limited.Regional financial integration can reverse these trends by increasing efficiency,lowering transaction costs for investors,improving liquidity conditions and reducing risks.Regional integration of secur

194、ities markets is being pursued in LAC through the regional holding company nuam exchange which aims at the full integration of the stock exchanges of Colombia,Lima and Santiago.024681012141618InformalMixedFormalInformalMixedFormalInformalMixedFormalInformalMixedFormalInformalMixedFormalInformalMixed

195、FormalInformalMixedFormalChileMexicoCosta RicaUruguayColombiaEl SalvadorDominican Republic%24 LATIN AMERICAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2024 OECD/CAF/EUROPEAN UNION 2024 Figure 7.Concentration of equity markets in LAC,2019 and 2024 Note:A market is considered highly concentrated if the Herfindahl-Hirschman In

196、dex exceeds 1 800 points and moderately concentrated if it is between 1 000 and 1 800 points.The exchanges analysed were Bolsa de Comercio de Buenos Aires in Argentina,BM&F Bovespa SA Bolsa de Valores Mercadorias e Futuros in Brazil,Bolsa de Santiago in Chile,Bolsa de Valores de Colombia,Costa Rica

197、Stock Exchange,Jamaica Stock Exchange,Bolsa Mexicana de Valores S.A.de C.V.,Bolsa de Valores de Lima S.A.in Peru,Korea Exchange and New York Stock Exchange(NYSE).Data were extracted on 12 June 2024.Source:Panel A:Authors calculation based on(London Stock Exchange Group,202414).Panel B:Authors elabor

198、ation based on(OECD,202415).StatLink 2 https:/stat.link/knlz8h In LAC,private bond market issuances remain largely underdeveloped despite their progress in recent years.In 2023,the outstanding amount of corporate bonds in the region accounted for around 2%of the global total.Market activity remains

199、mainly concentrated in the public sector(81%of LACs local issuances between 2015 and 2023)and largely in Brazil and Mexico.For the non-financial corporate sector,there is space to improve currency composition.Between 2015 and 2023,on average in LAC,58%of the amount issued by non-financial firms was

200、denominated in foreign currencies(Figure 8,Panel A),which could expose them to exchange rate risk.However,firms in LAC also issue bonds with a profile of longer maturities compared to those in emerging markets.Between 2015 and 2023,on average,firms issued bonds with a maturity of 9.3 years,compared

201、to a 5.2-year maturity in emerging markets(Figure 8,Panel B).01 000Panel A.Herfindahl-Hirschman Index201920244 1585 630020406080100%Panel B.Ownership concentration of top investorsTop 1Top 3Top 20 25 LATIN AMERICAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2024 OECD/CAF/EUROPEAN UNION 2024 Figure 8.Currency composition and

202、average maturity of corporate bonds issued by country group,2015-23 Note:The figure covers bonds issued during the period from 1 January 2015 to 31 December 2023.It includes bonds with an original maturity greater than one year and issues greater than USD 1 million.Countries included in the LAC grou

203、p are Argentina,Bahamas,Barbados,Bolivia,Brazil,Chile,Colombia,Costa Rica,the Dominican Republic,Ecuador,El Salvador,Guatemala,Honduras,Jamaica,Mexico,Panama,Paraguay,Peru,Trinidad and Tobago,and Uruguay.Panel A:Bonds are of the amount issued in USD.Panel B:Average maturity by year is weighted by is

204、sued amount.Average maturity over a period of years is computed as the simple average of the yearly average maturity.Source:Authors elaboration based on(OECD,202415).StatLink 2 https:/stat.link/am7yxp LAC companies can also access private markets by privately selling stock,with venture capital(VC)be

205、ing the most commonly used financing option in the region.Venture capital represents a key opportunity for companies that face difficulties in accessing equity and bond markets.However,recent VC dynamics in LAC have slowed down.In 2016,VC funding reached USD 1.1 billion across 249 deals,and in 2021,

206、it peaked at USD 25.1 billion across 859 deals,driven by post-COVID incentives and high demand.By 2023,however,VC funding had declined to USD 5.4 billion,falling below pre-pandemic levels(Figure 9).Compared to other global regions,most of the VC funding in LAC is directed towards mobile apps and fin

207、tech,while the region lags in sectors like manufacturing and e-commerce.0102030405060708090100GlobalEmerging marketsLAC%Panel A.Currency composition of non-financial corporate bondsDomestic currencyForeign currency024681012GlobalEmerging marketsLACYearsPanel B.Average maturity of corporate bondsFina

208、ncialNon-financialAverage26 LATIN AMERICAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2024 OECD/CAF/EUROPEAN UNION 2024 Figure 9.Annual venture capital investment in LAC,2016-23 Note:Due to missing information on deal size in some instances,values of deal size were imputed based on the average size by groups of target region

209、,by year and vertical activities(a more specific dimension of a companys activities that provides a view about niche markets spanning multiple industries,such as fintech,healthtech,and e-commerce).Source:Authors elaboration based on(Preqin,202416).StatLink 2 https:/stat.link/evqscw Development finan

210、ce institutions play a vital role in strengthening LACs financial markets Development finance institutions(DFIs),mostly represented by national and subnational public development banks,are crucial in providing innovative financial services,technical and digital support,and expanded access for firms

211、to financial markets.A 2023 analysis of 38 national and subnational public DFIs in 13 LAC countries underscores their key role in financing micro,small and medium-sized enterprises(MSMEs).Of 473 financial instruments mapped,42%target both MSMEs and large companies,39%focus solely on MSMEs,7%target p

212、ublic institutions,and 4%are for large companies.DFIs offer MSMEs a range of financial instruments that address various needs,including day-to-day operations(34%)and investment financing(45%)(Figure 10,Panel A).DFIs also help MSMEs contribute to green,digital and gender goals.Nevertheless,currently

213、only 19%of the instruments address at least one of the three cross-cutting challenges:51%support the green transition,29%target gender equality,and 20%focus on digital transformation and innovation(Figure 10,Panel B).010020030040050060070080090005101520253020162017201820192020202120222023USDbillionU

214、SD billionDeal count(right axis)27 LATIN AMERICAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2024 OECD/CAF/EUROPEAN UNION 2024 Figure 10.Distribution of financing types and financial instruments targeting green,digital and gender dimensions offered to MSMEs by DFIs in LAC,2023 Note:Panel B:Distribution is only concentrated i

215、n 19%of the DFIs financial instruments that had one or more services targeting a green,digital or gender dimension.Source:Authors elaboration based on public data(annual and sustainability reports)accessed in 2023 from 38 public DFIs in 13 LAC countries:Argentina,Brazil,Chile,Colombia,Costa Rica,the

216、 Dominican Republic,El Salvador,Guatemala,Mexico,Panama,Paraguay,Peru and Uruguay.StatLink 2 https:/stat.link/85sdto International financing and partnerships can help increase resources In the face of a changing context for international financing,LAC countries could benefit from sharing an agenda f

217、or development priorities and their financing.International financing is evolving as it adapts to a multiplicity of global challenges as well as to the rise of new actors,with emerging economies and non-traditional creditors playing more important roles in financing for development.Both the Paris Pa

218、ct for People and the Planet(4P)and the Fourth International Conference on Financing for Development in 2025 constitute key opportunities to assess the strategic priorities of LAC.A shared agenda on addressing the challenges of todays international financing context such as access to liquidity,risk

219、perceptions and access to concessional finance,as well as the fragmentation and co-ordination of development providers is needed for the region to realise its development opportunities and increase financial flows for sustainable development.LAC countries need to seize the opportunities available in

220、 private-sector finance to unlock different international financial flows.Private investors are the single most important external creditor for LAC governments,and their share has grown over time(ECLAC,202317)(Figure 11).In addition,the region is well positioned for mobilising greater private-sector

221、 finance through official development interventions.In 2022,LAC had the highest level of private mobilised finance for development of any region,with an overall amount of USD 21.2 billion,a 16-fold increase over the 2012 level(OECD Data Explorer,202418).While the levels of official development assis

222、tance have been reduced,the challenges facing the LAC region have increased,stressing the need for other financial flows to be better integrated through a sustainable development framework.Green transition51%Digital transformation and innovation20%Gender equality29%Panel B.Distribution of financial

223、instruments targeting green,digital and gender dimensionsFinancing investment45%Financing day-to-day operations34%Financing foreign trade13%Risk mitigation and financial security mechanisms7%Emergency financing1%Panel A.Distribution of financing types 28 LATIN AMERICAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2024 OECD/CAF

224、/EUROPEAN UNION 2024 Figure 11.Components of external financing flows to the LAC region,2011-22 Note:Total private flows include direct investments(liabilities),portfolio investments,and other private flows such as capital accounts,financial derivatives and other investments(liabilities).Source:Auth

225、ors elaboration based on(OECD,202419);(IMF,202420).StatLink 2 https:/stat.link/6bhg1p Development co-operation can help reduce barriers to international financial flows as well as perceived risks.Development co-operation can allow access to“derisking instruments”that aim to share risks among multila

226、teral,public and private actors,such as blended finance or guarantees offered at concessional or competitive terms to unlock private finance(OECD et al.,202321).LAC development partners such as the European Union(EU)are pursuing initiatives that drive the mobilisation of financing through the use of

227、 such tools.With the Global Gateway Strategy,the EU has put forward a holistic approach to international partnerships with integrated financing structures that bring together investment,trade and co-operation actors.The EU-LAC Global Gateway Investment Agenda promotes a 360-degree approach,mobilisin

228、g quality investments that create local added value and promote growth,jobs and social cohesion.Remittances and philanthropy are other international financial flows that benefit LAC.Given the regions high outward migration level,remittances constitute a significant and relatively stable source of fi

229、nance for LAC(IMF,201722).However,there is a disparity in remittances inflows,as the majority are concentrated in a few LAC countries,with the top six recipients with regard to the size of countries El Salvador,Guatemala,Haiti,Honduras,Jamaica and Nicaragua receiving significantly higher amounts tha

230、n the rest(World Bank,202423).Philanthropic flows provide LAC with substantive funding for sectors often overlooked by the private sector.There are largely two groups of countries that benefit from the bulk of the international philanthropic financing:i)Brazil,Colombia,El Salvador and Mexico,which e

231、ach received USD 90-100 million per year from philanthropic foundations;and ii)Ecuador,Guatemala,Haiti and Peru,which each received USD 10-20 million per year(OECD,202324).Philanthropic foundations can also play a role in boosting collaboration across providers of international co-operation,given th

232、eir unique convening power as a non-state actor and their focused mission objectives.Green,social,sustainability and sustainability-linked(GSSS)bonds continue to be an attractive financing mechanism,and international co-operation will be key in scaling up such debt securities for financing the susta

233、inable development agenda.GSSS bonds increased from 9.3%of total LAC bond issuance in international markets in 2020 to almost 35%in 2023(ECLAC,202425).The gradual shift from conventional bonds towards sustainable debt securities indicates a growing investor appetite for sustainable projects.Between

234、2014 and 2023,the GSSS international bond market in LAC reached a cumulative value of 0.000.100.200.300.400.500.600.700.80-200-1000100200300400500201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022USD billionUSD billionTotal private flowsDirect investment(liabilities)Portfolio investments(liabilties)Re

235、mittancesODAOther private flowsPhilanthropy(right axis)29 LATIN AMERICAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2024 OECD/CAF/EUROPEAN UNION 2024 USD 131 billion(Figure 12,Panel A).In 2023,sovereign issuances accounted for the largest share of GSSS issuances at 74%,followed by corporate issuances at 18%,and supranational

236、 and quasi-sovereign issuances at 9%(Figure 12,Panel B).To scale up GSSS bonds in the region and overcome barriers hindering market development,international financial co-operation is crucial.This includes the establishment of harmonised frameworks and reliable monitoring and supervision mechanisms

237、to prevent greenwashing and SDG washing(OECD,202426).Figure 12.International GSSS bond issuance in LAC by type,as a%of total and by issuer,2014-23 Note:Panel A:GSSS refers to green,social,sustainability and sustainability-linked bonds.Total sustainability bonds include blue bond issuance.Panel B:Qua

238、si-sovereign issuers are defined as companies with full or partial government ownership or control.Supranational issuers are defined as entities formed by two or more central governments to promote economic development for the member countries.Source:Authors elaboration based on(OECD et al.,202321);

239、(ECLAC,202425).StatLink 2 https:/stat.link/ioanjy Scaling up other debt tools such as catastrophe bonds,debt-for-nature swaps and natural disaster clauses will also be essential to mobilise resources.Catastrophe bonds can increase external borrowing by enhancing governments borrowing capacity and tr

240、ansferring financial risk to investors.Examples from Jamaica and Mexico show a market appetite for these instruments among highly exposed countries.For biodiverse and highly indebted countries,nature or climate or nature swaps can also be effective,particularly as complements to debt restructurings.

241、Debt-for-nature swaps have been employed in the region,with new proposals emerging,particularly among Caribbean countries that have low credit ratings and limited market access(OECD/IDB,202427).Natural disaster clauses can allow countries in LAC to capitalise interest and defer principal payments on

242、 bonds after major natural disasters,linking repayment capacity to risk exposure.These clauses align debt servicing obligations with a countrys ability to recover from disasters.0.21.32.75.70.65.49.331.032.035.00510152025303540020406080100120140%USD billionPanel A.International bond issuance in LAC:

243、GSSS by type and as percentage of total,2014-23GreenSocialSustainabilitySustainability-linkedPercentage of total international LAC bond issuanceUSD 131 billionSovereign 74%Corporate 18%Supranational and quasisovereign 9%Panel B.LAC international GSSS bond issuances by type of issuer,202330 LATIN AME

244、RICAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2024 OECD/CAF/EUROPEAN UNION 2024 Countries in LAC are focusing on improving sustainable finance frameworks by harmonising standards and expanding definitions of sustainable finance.Interoperable standards and common taxonomies are necessary for regulating,monitoring and verif

245、ying the issuance of GSSS bonds and other sustainable financial instruments.While overarching principles and guidelines provide valuable advice,it is essential for issuers of GSSS bonds at the national level to establish clearer,more binding standards and taxonomies.By December 2023,14 LAC countries

246、 had launched nearly 180 initiatives,aimed at developing their sustainable finance frameworks.Green and sustainable taxonomies have increasingly been adopted in the region since 2022,with publications in Argentina,Chile,Colombia,the Dominican Republic,Mexico and Panama and ongoing development in Bra

247、zil,Costa Rica and Peru.The interoperability and harmonisation of frameworks across the region are crucial,as each taxonomy determines environmental priorities based on its unique context.Notes 1 In 2023,the general price level across the region was 13.1%higher than in 2021,while for people living i

248、n extreme poverty,the price of the basket of goods normally consumed was 20%higher.References ECLAC(2024),Capital flows to Latin America and the Caribbean:2023 year-in-review and early 2024 developments,United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean,Santiago,https:/repositori

249、o.cepal.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/ce02481f-b84e-409d-8ccd-30ae1c14efb1/content.25 ECLAC(2024),Panorama of Productive Development Policies in Latin America and the Caribbean,2024,United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean,Santiago,https:/repositorio.cepal.org/server/a

250、pi/core/bitstreams/ef207540-b0d4-4cc9-8248-63b3ebac878d/content.6 ECLAC(2024),Social Panorama of Latin America and the Caribbean,2024,United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean,Santiago,https:/repositorio.cepal.org/items/e1403b62-ae38-461c-af18-00c8ed1610b3.3 ECLAC(2023),

251、Public Debt and Development Distress in Latin America and the Caribbean,United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean,https:/repositorio.cepal.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/d84a5041-0a2c-4b8e-9b01-d91b187477ce/content.17 Hanappi,T.et al.(2023),“Corporate Effective Tax Rates

252、 in Latin America and the Caribbean”,IDB Technical Note,No.IDB-TN-2782,https:/doi.org/10.18235/0005168.9 ILO(2024),ILOSTAT,https:/ilostat.ilo.org/data/.5 IMF(2024),Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Statistics(BOP/IIP),International Monetary Fund,Washington,DC,https:/data.imf.

253、org/?sk=7a51304b-6426-40c0-83dd-ca473ca1fd52.20 31 LATIN AMERICAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2024 OECD/CAF/EUROPEAN UNION 2024 IMF(2023),World Economic Outlook Database:October 2023 Edition,International Monetary Fund,Washington,DC,https:/www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/weo-database/2023/October.10 IMF(2017),

254、Regional Economic Outlook:Tale of Two Adjustments:Ch.5 Migration and Remittances in Latin America and the Caribbean:Macroeconomic Stabilizers and Engines of Growth?,International Monetary Fund,Washington,DC,https:/www.imf.org/en/Publications/REO/WH/Issues/2017/05/10/wreo0517?intcid=OBanner.22 London

255、 Stock Exchange Group(2024),DataStream(Database).14 OECD(2024),Capital Market Series dataset.15 OECD(2024),Key indicators of Informality based on Individuals and their Households(KIIbIH),https:/shorturl.at/IZXl5.4 OECD(2024),Official Development Assistance(ODA):Disbursements,OECD,Paris,https:/data-e

256、xplorer.oecd.org/vis?fs0=Topic%2C0%7CDevelopment%23DEV%23&pg=0&fc=Topic&bp=true&snb=10&dfds=dsDisseminateFinalDMZ&dfid=DSD_DAC2%40DF_DAC2A&dfag=OECD.DCD.FSD&dfvs=1.0&lc=en.19 OECD(2024),“The surge of Green,Social,Sustainability and Sustainability-linked(GSSS)bonds in Latin America and the Caribbean:

257、Facts and policy implications”,OECD Development Policy Papers,No.56,OECD Publishing,Paris,https:/doi.org/10.1787/f1c893a3-en.26 OECD(2023),“Creditor Reporting System:Private philanthropy for development(Edition 2023)”,OECD International Development Statistics(database),https:/doi.org/10.1787/dd62007

258、7-en(accessed on 28 November 2024).24 OECD(2023),“OECD/INFE 2023 International Survey of Adult Financial Literacy”,OECD Business and Finance Policy Papers,No.39,OECD Publishing,Paris,https:/doi.org/10.1787/56003a32-en.12 OECD(2021),Key Indicators of Informality based on Individuals and their Househo

259、ld(KIIbIH)database,OECD Publishing,Paris,https:/www.oecd.org/dev/key-indicators-informality-individuals-household-kiibih.htm.13 OECD Data Explorer(2024),Mobilised Private Finance for Development,OECD,Paris,https:/data-explorer.oecd.org(accessed on 9 July 2024).18 OECD et al.(2024),Revenue Statistics

260、 in Latin America and the Caribbean 2024,OECD Publishing,Paris,https:/doi.org/10.1787/33e226ae-en.8 OECD et al.(2023),Latin American Economic Outlook 2023:Investing in Sustainable Development,OECD Publishing,Paris,https:/doi.org/10.1787/8c93ff6e-en.21 OECD et al.(2021),Latin American Economic Outloo

261、k 2021:Working Together for a Better Recovery,OECD Publishing,Paris,https:/doi.org/10.1787/5fedabe5-en.7 OECD/IDB(2024),Caribbean Development Dynamics 2025,OECD Publishing,Paris,https:/doi.org/10.1787/a8e79405-en.27 32 LATIN AMERICAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2024 OECD/CAF/EUROPEAN UNION 2024 Preqin(2024),Pr

262、eqin(Database),https:/ The Conference Board(2024),Total Economy Database,The Conference Board,https:/www.conference-board.org/data/economydatabase.2 UNCTAD(2023),The Costs of Achieving the SDGs,United Nations Conference on Trade and Development,Geneva,https:/unctad.org/sdg-costing/about.1 World Bank

263、(2024),World Bank Indicators:Personal Remittances,Received(%of GDP)-Latin America&Caribbean,World Bank,Washington,DC,https:/data.worldbank.org/indicator/BX.TRF.PWKR.DT.GD.ZS?end=2022&locations=ZJ&start=2003.23 World Bank(2024),World Development Indicators(Database),World Bank,Washington,DC.11 33 LAT

264、IN AMERICAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2024 OECD/CAF/EUROPEAN UNION 2024 This chapter examines the need to address sustainable development in Latin America and the Caribbean(LAC)in light of the regions subdued economic activity.It analyses the regions low productivity growth as a structural drag on the econom

265、y.This chapter also looks at current macroeconomic trends in LAC countries with a focus on monetary conditions and fiscal space.The chapter then turns to social conditions and poverty,with a focus on social protection and health systems and the challenges they face in the context of pervasive labour

266、 informality.It considers how to finance the investment agenda needed to achieve higher sustainable growth and create quality jobs and highlights the need to improve the coverage of social programmes to better protect the most vulnerable.Finally,the chapter calls for co-ordinated policy planning tha

267、t strategically integrates public and private actors to help close the financing gap of sustainable development.1 Structural socio-economic challenges and financing conditions 34 LATIN AMERICAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2024 OECD/CAF/EUROPEAN UNION 2024 Infographic 1.1.To finance the development priorities,l

268、arger sources of funding are needed in LAC 35 LATIN AMERICAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2024 OECD/CAF/EUROPEAN UNION 2024 Introduction Latin America and the Caribbean(LAC)is a vast and diverse region.Its economies exhibit a wide range of characteristics,with countries facing distinct challenges based on sever

269、al factors including their economic structure,trade dynamics,reliance on commodities,and energy potential.While the countries of LAC face distinct challenges based on their unique circumstances,they also share many common trends,such as vulnerability to external economic shocks,the need to transitio

270、n to a green economy,persistent inequality,and governance issues.To overcome these challenges and capitalise on new opportunities,co-ordinated efforts at the national,regional,and global levels will be essential to mobilise the needed resources.Tackling LACs challenges demands co-ordinated and effec

271、tive policy planning as well as effective financing with the strategic integration of public and private actors.Given fiscal constraints,there is a pressing need for innovative and efficient financing mechanisms and partnerships among government,the private sector,and international actors.While publ

272、ic sector financing remains crucial for addressing social challenges,the creation of appropriate incentives and frameworks is essential to attract private-sector investment towards market-driven development objectives.Policy strategies must transcend sectoral boundaries to tackle interconnected soci

273、al,economic,and environmental challenges.This collaborative approach aims to mobilise resources efficiently,enhance infrastructure resilience and foster inclusive growth.These efforts must be undertaken at a time when economic activity in LAC has been subdued due to cyclical dynamics and pending str

274、uctural challenges.Low productivity growth continues to affect long-term economic growth in the region,working as a significant drag on potential per capita growth rates.In 2023,average labour productivity in LAC amounted to 33%of that of the OECD,a figure that decreased from 40%in 1990.Much of the

275、gap in labour productivity between LAC and high-income economies can be attributed to differences in total factor productivity.Low productivity growth in LAC is pervasive it affects most sectors of the economy,especially those where the private sector plays a leading role,such as trade,manufacturing

276、,and services.Most LAC economies have reacted to their different economic contexts with adequate monetary and fiscal instruments,although the space for demand policies is limited.In terms of monetary policy,authorities in countries that have adopted an inflation-targeting regime have maintained a ti

277、ght monetary stance to keep inflation expectations anchored.At the same time,high domestic interest rates have averted financial risks derived from higher international interest rates that could stimulate capital flight.In terms of fiscal policy,the region is undergoing a consolidation phase,as the

278、fiscal space available in the region has decreased significantly since the COVID-19 pandemic.With higher debt stocks and higher interest rates,debt service as a proportion of tax revenues has increased considerably.Together with the need to improve primary fiscal results to reduce,or at least contai

279、n,debt-to-GDP ratios,this has resulted in the need to reduce primary spending in some LAC countries,thus subtracting from aggregate demand at a time of activity slowdown.Long-standing poverty and informal employment remain significant socio-economic challenges in LAC.Although poverty has declined in

280、 recent decades,poverty remains high in LAC,accounting for 26.8%of the regions total population in 2024,while extreme poverty has remained relatively stable,affecting one in ten people in the region.Multi-dimensional poverty which includes non-monetary factors such as education,health,housing and sa

281、nitation conditions persists in the region,and climate change further threatens the most vulnerable populations.Although employment rates have increased slightly,more than half of those employed in LAC remain in informal jobs,with low pay,limited social insurance,and heightened vulnerabilities for w

282、omen and youth.Informal work is especially widespread in rural areas and sectors like agriculture and construction.Effective policies that incorporate multi-dimensional poverty indices and target informal work are essential for providing targeted social benefits,enhancing formal employment,and reduc

283、ing inequality in the region.36 LATIN AMERICAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2024 OECD/CAF/EUROPEAN UNION 2024 This chapter examines the regions low economic growth,highlighting structural challenges in light of the regions subdued potential growth and low productivity performance.In addition,the chapter analyse

284、s the current monetary and fiscal policy space as well as the status of the regions external accounts.It then turns to social conditions in LAC,with a focus on informality and the role that social security systems could play in reducing the regions social vulnerabilities.Finally,it stresses the need

285、 to formulate a clear roadmap for development with a clear financing agenda and concludes with main policy messages.Weak growth in LAC points to the need to address structural challenges The LAC region has been slowing economically since 2022.While this trend is the result of cyclical dynamics,long-

286、term structural factors continue to persist in most LAC countries.It is amplified by the domestic macroeconomic policy mix in the majority of LAC countries,which face insufficient fiscal space and persistently high inflation rates.Low productivity growth is a major structural challenge in the region

287、 A key structural challenge in LAC is low productivity growth.Low productivity growth is a key factor in the regions poor economic performance and in its inability to catch up with developed economies.Average labour productivity per hour worked in the region amounted to 33%of the OECD average in 202

288、3,and the gap has widened since 1990,when the LAC average stood at 40%(Figure 1.1).Low productivity growth in LAC is associated with several factors,including low levels of innovation and adoption of new technologies,low levels of investment in physical and human capital,high informality,and subopti

289、mal allocation of resources(OECD et al.,20191).Allocation of resources is suboptimal when established firms are favoured over innovative startups or when capital is channelled towards politically connected enterprises rather than those with higher growth potential(IDB,20242).Figure 1.1.Labour produc

290、tivity in LAC as a percentage of OECD labour productivity per hour worked,1990-2023 Note:LAC refers to a simple average that includes Argentina,Bolivia,Brazil,Chile,Colombia,Costa Rica,the Dominican Republic,Ecuador,Guatemala,Jamaica,Mexico,Paraguay,Peru,Trinidad and Tobago,Uruguay,and Venezuela.For

291、 the OECD,it is a simple average that includes its 38 member countries.Source:Authors calculations based on(The Conference Board,20243).StatLink 2 https:/stat.link/j5w6r4 051015202530354045%37 LATIN AMERICAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2024 OECD/CAF/EUROPEAN UNION 2024 Low labour productivity in LAC is mainly

292、due to the low productive efficiency of the regions economies.Poor productive efficiency can be attributed to decades of lacklustre growth in total factor productivity(TFP),a measure of how efficiently the economy uses its inputs(such as capital and labour)to produce goods and services.For instance,

293、labour productivity in LAC is 70%relative to the United States on average.About 80%of the gap can be attributed to differences in TFP,which in LAC is about a third of that in the United States on average(differences in human capital account for most of the rest of the gap).1 TFP in LAC has been belo

294、w TFP in OECD countries since 1950(Figure 1.2).From 1950 to 1975,TFP grew on average at about 1.1%per year in LAC,less than half of the 2.4%observed in OECD countries,and the regions performance has worsened since then.From 1975 to 2023,TFP decreased at an average annual rate of 0.08%in LAC,whereas

295、in the OECD,it barely grew on average at 0.05%.Figure 1.2.Total factor productivity(TFP)in LAC and OECD,1950-2023(1950=100)Note:LAC refers to a simple average that includes Argentina,Bolivia,Brazil,Chile,Colombia,Costa Rica,the Dominican Republic,Ecuador,Guatemala,Jamaica,Mexico,Paraguay,Peru,Trinid

296、ad and Tobago,Uruguay,and Venezuela.For the OECD,the simple average includes Australia,Austria,Belgium,Canada,Denmark,Finland,France,Iceland,Ireland,Israel,Italy,Japan,Luxembourg,the Netherlands,New Zealand,Norway,Portugal,Spain,Sweden,Switzerland,Trkiye,the United Kingdom and the United States.Sour

297、ce:Authors calculations based on(The Conference Board,20243).StatLink 2 https:/stat.link/lf3mga Capital per worker levels are also low in the region.On average,the level of capital per worker in LAC is about a quarter that of the United States.However,this difference is explained ultimately by the l

298、ower levels of TFP in LAC,as weak capital relative to workers is in part the result of the inefficient production structure of LAC economies.Thus,lower TFP has a direct negative effect on output and labour productivity as well as a compounded adverse effect through capital accumulation.As a result,c

299、apital stock relative to gross domestic product(GDP)in LAC,on average,is similar to the ratio observed in the United States.The evolution of productivity in the region has been a significant drag on economic growth,especially since the 1980s(Figure 1.3).During the period 1950-70,TFP growth contribut

300、ed about a quarter of the regions real GDP growth,which averaged 5.3%per year.In the 1970s,however,TFP not only did not contribute to economic growth but actually held it back slightly.Since 1980,TFP has significantly hindered economic growth,particularly in the 1980s and again since 2011.As a resul

301、t,over the period 1980-2023,GDP in LAC grew at an average rate of 2.1%annually,slightly lower than the 2.3%observed in OECD countries.050100150200250195019551960196519701975198019851990199520002005201020152020LACOECD38 LATIN AMERICAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2024 OECD/CAF/EUROPEAN UNION 2024 Figure 1.3.Grow

302、th accounting(growth decomposition)in LAC,1950-2023 Note:Contribution of labour,physical capital,human capital and total factor productivity to real GDP growth.LAC includes Argentina,Bolivia,Brazil,Chile,Colombia,Costa Rica,the Dominican Republic,Ecuador,Guatemala,Jamaica,Mexico,Paraguay,Peru,Trinid

303、ad and Tobago,Uruguay,and Venezuela.Source:Authors calculations based on(The Conference Board,20243).StatLink 2 https:/stat.link/rb3pxz As a result of low productivity growth,potential per capita growth rates in LAC are low and not sufficient for convergence towards higher-income economies in the me

304、dium term.The regions potential GDP per capita growth is estimated to be about 0.8%per year,independently of the estimation method and based on data from 1980 to 2023.In comparison,the potential GDP per capita growth of high-income economies is estimated at around 1.7%annually(Figure 1.4).-4-202468%

305、Human capitalPhysical capitalLabourTFPReal GDP growth 39 LATIN AMERICAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2024 OECD/CAF/EUROPEAN UNION 2024 Figure 1.4.Potential GDP per capita growth in LAC and in advanced economies As estimated by different methods since 1980 Note:Average growth is a simple average over the period

306、analysed.HP=the Hodrick-Prescott filter,which was used as an alternative model due to its resilience to short-term shocks to create a smoothed curve(lambda equal to 100).AR(1)refers to an autoregressive model of order 1.The AR model uses GDP per capita growth data.The LAC series refers to 33 economi

307、es,while the term“advanced economies”includes 41 economies as listed in the IMFs World Economic Outlook database.Source:Authors calculations based on 1980-2023 data from(IMF,20234).StatLink 2 https:/stat.link/khbpis Low productivity growth in LAC affects most sectors of the economy(Figure 1.5).Labou

308、r productivity is lower than in the OECD on average in all sectors except the government and utilities.More specifically,the average relative sectoral productivity in LAC is 66%of that of the OECD.The labour productivity of key sectors such as trade,manufacturing,and other services which employ a si

309、gnificant fraction of workers(23%,10%and 11%respectively)amounts to 33%,39%and 42%of that of the OECD.Agriculture,which accounts for 15%of total employment,also presents a significant gap,with labour productivity of 55%relative to the OECD.0.00.51.01.52.02.5Up to 2000Up to 2009Up to 2019Up to 2023%P

310、anel A.Advanced economies0.00.51.01.52.02.5Up to 2000Up to 2009Up to 2019Up to 2023%Panel B.LAC economiesSimple averageHPAR(1)40 LATIN AMERICAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2024 OECD/CAF/EUROPEAN UNION 2024 Figure 1.5.Sectoral labour productivity(PPP adjusted)in LAC relative to OECD,2017 Note:Analysis based on

311、the following nine LAC countries:Argentina,Bolivia,Brazil,Chile,Colombia,Costa Rica,Ecuador,Mexico and Peru.The most recent year with data available is 2017.Source:Authors calculations based on(Inklaar,Marapin and Grler,20235).StatLink 2 https:/stat.link/1o4d3r The productivity challenges faced by L

312、AC over several decades have impeded growth and development.Among the key factors contributing to this situation are the economic institutions that shape the business environment.These institutional factors encompass critical aspects such as safeguarding property rights,upholding the rule of law,enf

313、orcing contracts,and maintaining state capacity.Regulatory frameworks and public policies also play a significant role.These factors collectively influence how firms operate.They impact productivity through i)resource allocation across firms and industries;ii)firm-level innovation;and iii)the entry

314、and exit of firms.A well-functioning financial system is essential to ensure the effectiveness of these mechanisms and to invest in strategic sectors(CAF,20186;OECD et al.,20237).A key factor for low productivity growth is underdeveloped financial systems,which are essential in financing of the deve

315、lopment agenda(Chapter 3).Financial markets can have important effects on productivity through several channels.First,access to financing plays a key role in firms decisions to innovate,expand and export.Second,lack of credit may also affect individuals occupational choices and prevent talented entr

316、epreneurs from pursuing projects with high potential.Third,a well-functioning financial system is key for firms to better absorb real shocks,allowing the most vulnerable and productive firms to survive.In an economy with little access to credit,the firms that survive adverse shocks are not necessari

317、ly those that are more productive but rather those with fewer liquidity problems.The increase in productivity that could be obtained by eliminating credit frictions is between 18%and 24%and could reach up to 36%.Similarly,if countries in the region were to adopt the best financial practices,they cou

318、ld achieve productivity gains of 18%and output per capita gains of up to 88%(CAF,20186).917269635555484239330102030405060708090100Real estateTransportMiningConstructionBusinessAgricultureFinanceOther services ManufacturingTrade%41 LATIN AMERICAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2024 OECD/CAF/EUROPEAN UNION 2024 Per

319、sistent challenges are more difficult to address when there is limited room for demand-side policies As inflation eases,monetary authorities should remain cautious As in the rest of the world,inflation in the region is converging towards pre-pandemic levels.After topping 10%on average(excluding Arge

320、ntina and Venezuela)in the middle of 2022,inflation has dropped since the second half of 2023 in most LAC countries,independent of their monetary policy regime(Figure 1.6).Commodity prices were the main driver of recent increases in headline and core inflation rates(IDB,20242;OECD et al.,20237).Sinc

321、e the beginning of 2023,declines in inflation have been particularly evident in economies where central banks are independent and follow inflation-targeting regimes.However,within inflation-targeting regimes,some economies such as Colombia and,to a lesser extent,Mexico have struggled to reduce headl

322、ine inflation and anchor inflation expectations,while in other countries,such as Brazil,Chile and Peru,the normalisation of both inflation and interest rates was achieved more rapidly from the second half of 2023.Figure 1.6.Monthly inflation in LAC economies under different inflation regimes Note:Th

323、e simple average for LAC countries with an inflation-targeting regime includes Brazil,Chile,Colombia,Costa Rica,the Dominican Republic,Guatemala,Jamaica,Mexico,Paraguay,Peru,and Uruguay.Max=maximum inflation among the countries per month.Min=minimum inflation among the countries per month.For interm

324、ediate regimes,the simple average includes Bolivia,Honduras,Nicaragua and Trinidad and Tobago.The simple average for fixed regimes includes Belize,Ecuador,El Salvador,Guyana,and Panama.Source:Authors calculations based on LSEG Data and Analytics.StatLink 2 https:/stat.link/m0api6 Monetary policy has

325、 been fundamental in taming headline inflation and keeping inflation expectations in check.To control both headline inflation and inflation expectations,central banks in some LAC countries,such as Brazil,Colombia,Mexico and Peru,started tightening their monetary policies even before-4-20246810121416

326、%Panel A.Inflation target regimesAverageMax.Min.-4-20246810121416%Panel B.Other regimesIntermediateFixed42 LATIN AMERICAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2024 OECD/CAF/EUROPEAN UNION 2024 advanced economies.As inflation pressures diminished in these countries,central banks in the region also started to ease moneta

327、ry conditions.Monetary authorities should continue to be cautious.With local conditions putting pressure on inflation expectations in some countries(such as Brazil and Mexico),central banks in the region should be cautious and avoid easing monetary conditions too fast.This will prevent a significant

328、 reduction in interest rate gaps and therefore avoid capital flight and currency depreciation.Capital flows to Latin America have been resilient Short-term capital flows to LAC have continued to show resilience in the face of high interest rates in global financial markets.The region saw net short-t

329、erm capital inflows of USD 42.9 billion in 2023 and USD 24.8 billion in the first semester of 2024,maintaining a positive flow in almost every month(Figure 1.7).Figure 1.7.Total portfolio flows,May 2022-May 2024(equity and debt)USD billion(current values)Source:Authors elaboration based on(IIF,20248

330、).StatLink 2 https:/stat.link/kogsph Positive portfolio inflows since 2023 can be partly explained by the regions interest rate hikes to address high inflation.This has created wide interest-rate gaps with the United States and other advanced economies.Interest rates in most LAC countries remain at

331、higher levels than those of advanced economies,especially in Brazil and Mexico.These interest-rate gaps have made the region more attractive to investors,benefiting both equity and bond markets.In the case of equity markets,the price of financial assets in the region outperformed the group of 24 eme

332、rging economies measured by Morgan Stanley Capital International(MSCI),with a combined revaluation of close to 3.0%,compared to a 4.4%drop in the bloc of emerging economies,according to the MSCI Stock Price Index for the third quarter of 2023.In the case of the bond market,Latin America experienced

333、a favourable year,adding net capital inflows of USD 44 billion in 2023.-60-300306090May-22Sep-22Jan-23May-23Sep-23Jan-24May-24Africa and Middle EastEmerging EuropeLatin AmericaEmerging AsiaUSD billion 43 LATIN AMERICAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2024 OECD/CAF/EUROPEAN UNION 2024 In addition to these portfolio inflows,the region received historical inflows of foreign direct investment(FDI)in 2022,with a slig