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1、Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports.As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making thei

2、r investment decision.For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures,see the Disclosure Appendix,or go to employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S.The Goldman Sachs Group,Inc.EQUITYRESEARCH|November 3,2024|8:01 PM ESTFull list of

3、 authors insideKash Rangan+1 415 249-7318 kash.r Goldman Sachs&Co.LLCCarly Davenport+1 212 357-1914 car ly.davenpor t Goldman Sachs&Co.LLCBrendan Corbett+1(415)249-7440 br endan.cor bet t Goldman Sachs&Co.LLCBrian Lee,CFA+1 917 343-3110 br Goldman Sachs&Co.LLC John Mackay+1 212 357-5379 Goldman Sach

4、s&Co.LLC James Schneider,Ph.D.+1 212 357-2929 jim.schneider Goldman Sachs&Co.LLC Neil Mehta+1 212 357-4042 neil.meht Goldman Sachs&Co.LLC Eric Sheridan+1 917 343-8683 er ic.sher Goldman Sachs&Co.LLC Brian Singer,CFA+1(212)902-8259 br ian.singer Goldman Sachs&Co.LLCTyler Bisset,CFA+1 212 357-5510 t y

5、ler.bisset Goldman Sachs&Co.LLCAI/DATA CENTERS GLOBAL POWER SURGEThe push for the Green data center and investment implicationsAs global data center power demand grows 165%by 2030 vs.2023 per our estimates,we continue to see Big Tech taking an all-in approach to sourcing power and pursuing low-carbo

6、n solutions.Our analysis of levelized cost of energy suggests while there is not a Green Premium for intermittent solar/wind power in the US,there is a significant Green Reliability Premium for low-carbon round-the-clock power solutions(nuclear,solar,wind,battery storage).Nevertheless,we view the Gr

7、een Reliability premium as relatively modest in the context of hyperscalers EBITDA and strong corporate returns.While we continue to assume renewables meets only 40%of data center power demand growth through 2030(natural gas meeting the bulk of the remainder),we see potential for a significant rise

8、in nuclear share in the 2030s.NoteNote:The following is a redacted version of the original report published November 3,2024 53 pgs.None of the companyreferences in this note should be interpreted as investment recommendations.AUTHORSAUTHORSBrian Singer,CFA+1 212 902-Goldman Sachs&Co.LLCBrendan Corbe

9、tt+1 415 249-Goldman Sachs&Co.LLCBrian Lee,CFA+1 917 343-Goldman Sachs&Co.LLCJohn Mackay+1 212 357-Goldman Sachs&Co.LLCNeil Mehta+1 212 357-Goldman Sachs&Co.LLCEric Sheridan+1 917 343-Goldman Sachs&Co.LLCKash Rangan+1 415 249-Goldman Sachs&Co.LLCJames Schneider,Ph.D.+1 212 357-Goldman Sachs Internat

10、ionalAlberto Gandolfi+39 02 8022-Goldman Sachs Bank Europe SE-Milan branchTyler Bisset,CFA+1 212 357-Goldman Sachs&Co.LLCCarly Davenport+1 212 357-Goldman Sachs&Co.LLCAdam Wijaya+1 212 357-Goldman Sachs&Co.LLCJohn Miller+1(646)446-Goldman Sachs&Co.LLCDerek R.Bingham+1(415)249-Goldman Sachs&Co.LLCEmm

11、a Jones+61 2 9320-Goldman Sachs Australia Pty LtdMadeline Meyer+44 20 7774-Goldman Sachs InternationalVarsha Venugopal+1 415 393-Goldman Sachs&Co.LLCGrace Chen+44 20 7774-Goldman Sachs InternationalXavier Zhang+852 2978-Goldman Sachs(Asia)L.L.CAti Modak+1 212 902-Goldman Sachs&Co.LLCJoshua M.Frantz,

12、CFA+1 917 343-Goldman Sachs&Co.LLCMichael Smith+1 212 357-Goldman Sachs&Co.LLCEvan Tylenda,CFA+44(20)7774-Goldman Sachs InternationalOlivia Halferty+1 801 212-Goldman Sachs&Co.LLCSix key takeawaysWe continue to see data center power demand growing 165%through 2030 vs.1.2023 levels,with risk over the

13、 medium term from AI skewed to the upside in ourview.While we do not see a Green Premium for intermittent power in the US,our2.analysis suggests a Green Reliability Premium for low-carbon round-the-clockpower solutions vs natural gas combined cycle in the US.We expect the GreenReliability Premium to

14、 be greater in the US vs.other developed markets in part dueto lower-cost natural gas in the US,even before taking into account country-levelcarbon prices in some other markets.We expect hyperscalers will remain committed to pursuing low-carbon power3.solutions based on our analysis of Green Reliabi

15、lity Premiums,industrydiscussions and recent contracts.Our analysis suggests that the capitalrequirements for Green Reliability Premiums to source data center power demandto be modest relative to the EBITDA(200MW of total capacity(bars-LHS);Total utility-scale solar capacity(dots-RHS)2002,2004,2006,

16、2008,20010,20012,20014,20016,20010%12%14%16%18%20%22%24%26%28%30%UTAZNMNVCAIDCOTXILORGAIAALTNARFLSCMSNCOHVAMNMIHIINMDWIMACTNYRINJMETotal State Capacity(MW)Capacity Factor%National Average Capacity Factor:23%States excluded due to Total State Capacity 1GW of total capacity(bars-LHS);Total utility-sca

17、le wind capacity(dots-RHS)1,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,00010,00010%15%20%25%30%35%40%NMNENDSDIAKSCOMTOKTXILMNWYMOINOHMIMECAORWAPANYTotal State Capacity(MW)Capacity Factor%States excluded due to TotalState Capacity 1 GW:AK,FL,NC,KY,MA,VT,UT,WI,TN,NJ,HI,NV,WV,ID,NH,DE,MD,GA,RI,CT,SC,VA,AR

18、,AL,MS,LANational Average Capacity Factor:33%WindSour ce:EIA,Gol dman Sachs Gl obal Invest ment Resear ch3 November 2024 30Goldman SachsGS SUSTAI N:AI/data centers global power surgeExhibit 30:Solar intermittency varies by region and by season.Exhibit 31:.As does wind 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%Capaci

19、ty Factor%MTNPACCWSCSATWNCENCNEWMATUSAENC:East North Centr MAT:Middle Atlantic MTN:Mountain NEW:New England PACC:Pacific Coast SAT:South Atlantic WNC:West North Centr.WSC:West South Centr.USA:National Avg.0%10%20%30%40%50%60%Capacity Factor%WNCMTNWSCENCPACCNEWMATUSAENC:East North Centr.MAT:Middle At

20、lantic MTN:Mountain NEW:New England PACC:Pacific Coast WNC:West North Centr.WSC:West South Centr.USA:National Avg.St at es incl uded in each r egion:ENC:IL,IN,MI,OH,WI;MAT:NJ,NY,PA;MTN:AZ,CO,ID,MT,NV,NM,UT,WY;NEW:CT,ME,MA,NH,RI,VT;PACC:CA,OR,WA;SAT:DE,DC,FL,GA,MD,NC,SC,VA,WV;WNC:IA,KS,MN,MO,NE,ND,SD

21、;WSC:AR,LA,OK,TX Sour ce:EIA,Gol dman Sachs Gl obal Invest ment Resear chSt at es incl uded in each r egion:ENC:IL,IN,MI,OH,WI;MAT:NJ,NY,PA;MTN:AZ,CO,ID,MT,NV,NM,UT,WY;NEW:CT,ME,MA,NH,RI,VT;PACC:CA,OR,WA;SAT:DE,DC,FL,GA,MD,NC,SC,VA,WV;WNC:IA,KS,MN,MO,NE,ND,SD;WSC:AR,LA,OK,TX Sour ce:EIA,Gol dman Sac

22、hs Gl obal Invest ment Resear ch3 November 2024 31Goldman SachsGS SUSTAI N:AI/data centers global power surgeDisclosure Appendix Reg AC We,Brian Singer,CFA,Brendan Corbett,Carly Davenport,Brian Lee,CFA,John Mackay,Neil Mehta,Eric Sheridan,Kash Rangan,James Schneider,Ph.D.,Alberto Gandolfi,Tyler Biss

23、et,CFA,Adam Wijaya,John Miller,Derek R.Bingham,Evan Tylenda,CFA,Emma Jones,Madeline Meyer,Varsha Venugopal,Grace Chen,Xavier Zhang,Ati Modak,Joshua M.Frantz,CFA,Michael Smith and Olivia Half erty,hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect our personal views abou

24、t the subject company or companies and its or their securities.We also certify that no part of our compensation was,is or will be,directly or indirectly,related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.Unless otherwise stated,the individuals listed on the cover page of this

25、report are analysts in Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research division.GS Factor Profile The Goldman Sachs Factor Profile provides investment context for a stock by comparing key attributes to the market(i.e.our coverage universe)and its sector peers.The four key attributes depicted are:Growth,Fin

26、ancial Returns,Multiple(e.g.valuation)and Integrated(a composite of Growth,Financial Returns and Multiple).Growth,Financial Returns and Multiple are calculated by using normalized ranks for specific metrics for each stock.The normalized ranks for the metrics are then averaged and converted into perc

27、entiles for the relevant attribute.The precise calculation of each metric may vary depending on the fiscal year,industry and region,but the standard approach is as follows:Growth is based on a stocks forward-looking sales growth,EBITDA growth and EPS growth(for financial stocks,only EPS and sales gr

28、owth),with a higher percentile indicating a higher growth company.Financial Returns is based on a stocks forward-looking ROE,ROCE and CROCI(for financial stocks,only ROE),with a higher percentile indicating a company with higher financial returns.Multiple is based on a stocks forward-looking P/E,P/B

29、,price/dividend(P/D),EV/EBITDA,EV/FCF and EV/Debt Adjusted Cash Flow(DACF)(for financial stocks,only P/E,P/B and P/D),with a higher percentile indicating a stock trading at a higher multiple.The Integrated percentile is calculated as the average of the Growth percentile,Financial Returns percentile

30、and(100%-Multiple percentile).Financial Returns and Multiple use the Goldman Sachs analyst forecasts at the fiscal year-end at least three quarters in the future.Growth uses inputs for the fiscal year at least seven quarters in the future compared with the year at least three quarters in the future(

31、on a per-share basis for all metrics).For a more detailed description of how we calculate the GS Factor Profile,please contact your GS representative.M&A Rank Across our global coverage,we examine stocks using an M&A framework,considering both qualitative factors and quantitative factors(which may v

32、ary across sectors and regions)to incorporate the potential that certain companies could be acquired.We then assign a M&A rank as a means of scoring companies under our rated coverage from 1 to 3,with 1 representing high(30%-50%)probability of the company becoming an acquisition target,2 representin

33、g medium(15%-30%)probability and 3 representing low(0%-15%)probability.For companies ranked 1 or 2,in line with our standard departmental guidelines we incorporate an M&A component into our target price.M&A rank of 3 is considered immaterial and therefore does not factor into our price target,and ma

34、y or may not be discussed in research.Quantum Quantum is Goldman Sachs proprietary database providing access to detailed financial statement histories,forecasts and ratios.It can be used for in-depth analysis of a single company,or to make comparisons between companies in dif f erent sectors and mar

35、kets.Disclosures Rating and pricing information American Electric Power(Buy,$98.75),Amphenol Corp.(Buy,$67.02),Array Technologies Inc.(Buy,$6.53),Cameco Corp.(Buy,$52.22),Caterpillar Inc.(Buy,$376.20),Daihen(Buy,6,250),Digital Realty Trust Inc.(Buy,$178.23),Dubai Electricity and Water Authority(Buy,

36、AED2.49),E.ON(Buy,12.42),Eaton Corp.(Buy,$331.58),Enel SpA(Buy,6.97),Energy Transf er LP(Neutral,$16.48),Equinix Inc.(Buy,$908.08),First Solar Inc.(Buy,$194.48),Flex(Buy,$34.67),Fluence Energy Inc.(Buy,$21.75),Fuji Electric Co.(Buy,8,319),Fujikura(Buy,5,430),GE Vernova(Buy,$301.66),Hitachi(Buy,3,679

37、),Hitachi Energy India Ltd.(Buy,Rs13,812.35),Iberdrola SA(Buy,13.65),Jabil Circuit Inc.(Buy,$123.09),Kehua Data Co.(Buy,Rmb24.80),Kinder Morgan Inc.(Buy,$24.51),Legrand(Buy,103.60),MYR Group(Buy,$131.00),NTPC Ltd.(Buy,Rs408.10),NextEra Energy Inc.(Buy,$79.25),Nextracker(Buy,$39.82),Nordex SE(Buy,13.

38、05),Orsted A/S(Buy,Dkr400.70),Power Grid(Buy,Rs321.20),Prysmian(Buy,64.82),Quanta Services(Buy,$301.63),ReNew Energy Global(Buy,$5.66),Rolls-Royce(Buy,535.4p),SSE Plc(Buy,1,761p),Sempra(Buy,$83.37),Shenzhen Envicool Technology(Buy,Rmb31.20),Shoals Technologies(Buy,$5.41),Siemens AG(Buy,178.40),Sieme

39、ns Energy(Buy,37.53),Southern Co.(Buy,$91.03),TC Energy Corp.(Sell,$46.51),Vertiv Holdings(Buy,$109.29),Vestas Wind Systems A/S(Buy,Dkr129.10),Williams Cos.(Neutral,$52.37),Xcel Energy Inc.(Buy,$66.81)and nVENT Electric Plc.(Buy,$74.57)Disclaimer Third party brands used in this presentation are the

40、property of their respective owners,and are used here for informational purposes only.The use of such brands should not be viewed as an endorsement,af filiation or sponsorship by or for Goldman Sachs or any of its products/services.The rating(s)for Energy Transfer LP,Kinder Morgan Inc.,TC Energy Cor

41、p.and Williams Cos.is/are relative to the other companies in its/their coverage universe:Antero Midstream Corp.,Aris Water Solutions Inc.,Cheniere Energy Inc.,Cheniere Energy Partners,DT Midstream Inc.,Energy Transf er LP,Enterprise Products Partners LP,Enviva Inc.,Kinder Morgan Inc.,Kinetik Holding

42、s,Kodiak Gas Services Inc.,LandBridge,MPLX LP,Plains All American Pipeline LP,Plains GP Holdings,TC Energy Corp.,Targa Resources Corp.,Williams Cos.The rating(s)for American Electric Power,NextEra Energy Inc.,Sempra,Southern Co.and Xcel Energy Inc.is/are relative to the other companies in its/their

43、coverage universe:Ameren Corp.,American Electric Power,Consolidated Edison Inc.,Duke Energy Corp.,Edison International,Eversource Energy,Exelon Corp.,FirstEnergy Corp.,NextEra Energy Inc.,PG&E Corp.,Public Service Enterprise Group,Sempra,Southern Co.,WEC Energy Group,Xcel Energy Inc.The rating(s)for

44、 First Solar Inc.and Fluence Energy Inc.is/are relative to the other companies in its/their coverage universe:Acuity Brands Inc.,Array Technologies Inc.,Canadian Solar Inc.,Energy Vault Holdings,Enphase Energy Inc.,First Solar Inc.,Fluence Energy Inc.,Hannon Armstrong,Hayward Holdings,JinkoSolar Hol

45、ding,Mueller Water Products Inc.,Nextracker,Pentair Plc,Shoals Technologies,SolarEdge Technologies Inc.,Stem Inc.,Sunnova Energy,Sunrun Inc.,Universal Display Corp.,Veeco Instruments Inc.,Veralto Corp.,Watts Water Technologies Inc.,Wolfspeed Inc.,Xylem Inc.The rating(s)for Digital Realty Trust Inc.a

46、nd Equinix Inc.is/are relative to the other companies in its/their coverage universe:AT&T Inc.,3 November 2024 32Goldman SachsGS SUSTAI N:AI/data centers global power surgeAccenture Plc,Altice USA Inc.,American Tower Corp.,Charter Communications Inc.,Cogent Communications Holdings,Cognizant Technolo

47、gy Solutions,Crown Castle International Corp.,Digital Realty Trust Inc.,EPAM Systems Inc.,Equinix Inc.,Globant SA,IHS Holding,International Business Machines Corp.,Lumen Technologies Inc.,SBA Communications Corp.,Sof tchoice Corp.,T-Mobile US Inc.,TaskUs Inc.,Verizon Communications The rating(s)for

48、Cameco Corp.is/are relative to the other companies in its/their coverage universe:Atlas Energy Solutions,Baker Hughes Co.,Cameco Corp.,Chart Industries,Expro Group Holdings NV,Halliburton Co.,Helmerich&Payne Inc.,Liberty Energy Inc.,MYR Group,MasTec Inc.,NOV Inc.,Patterson-UTI Energy Inc.,Quanta Ser

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