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1、November,2024Retail Trends to Watchin 2025Which retail trends are poised to dominate in 2025?We take alook at the location intelligence to uncover shifts poised toshape the retail landscape in the coming year.Authors:,R.J Hottovy,andEthan ChernofskyCaroline WuElizabeth LafontaineTable of ContentsInt

2、roduction3Conventional Value Reaching Its Ceiling3Innovative and Disruptive Value Shake Up Retail and Dining5Trader Joes Drives Visits With Private Label Innovation6Chilis Beats QSR at its Own Game7The Convenience Myth8Serving Diners Quicker With Automatization10Chipotle Draws Crowds With Autocado10

3、McDonalds Leans into Automation in Texas11Evolving Retail Formats-Finding the Right Fit12Macys Draws Local Weekday Visitors With Small-Format Stores13Harbor Freight Tools and Ace Hardware Serve Smaller Growth Markets With LessSquare Footage14Hy-Vee Bucks the Trend by Going Big15A Resurgence of Legac

4、y Brands16Meeting the Evolving Needs of Millennials18Sams Club Draws Value-Conscious Singles and Starters18Taco Bell Brings in Crowds With Value Nostalgia Menu19What Lies Ahead?20Key Takeaways21 2024 Placer Labs,Inc.|More insights at placer.ai|2Introduction2024 has been another challenging year for

5、retailers.Still-high prices and anuncertain economic climate led many shoppers to trade down and cut back onunnecessary indulgences.Value took center stage,as cautious consumers sought tostretch their dollars as far as possible.But price wasnt the only factor driving consumer behavior in 2024.This p

6、ast year sawthe rise of a variety of retail and dining trends,some seemingly at odds with oneanother.Shoppers curbed discretionary spending,but made room in their budgetsfor“essential non-essentials”like gym memberships and other wellness offerings.Consumers placed a high premium on speed and conven

7、ience,while at the sametime demonstrating a willingness to go out of their way for quality or value finds.Andeven amidst concern about the economy,shoppers were ready to pony up forspecialty items,legacy brands,and fun experiences as long as they didnt break thebank.How did these currents likely to

8、continue shaping the retail landscape into 2025 impact leading brands and categories?We dove into the data to find out.Conventional Value Reaching Its CeilingBifurcation has emerged as a foundational principle in retail over the past few years:Consumers are increasingly gravitating toward either lux

9、ury or value offerings andaway from the middle.Add extended economic uncertainty along with rapidexpansions and product diversification from top value-oriented retailers,and youhave an explosion of visits in the value lane.But we are seeing a ceiling to that growth especially in the discount&dollar

10、storespace.Throughout 2023 and the first part of 2024,visits to discount&dollar storesincreased steadily.But no category can sustain uninterrupted visit growth forever.2024 Placer Labs,Inc.|More insights at placer.ai|3Since April 2024,yearover-year(YoY)foot traffic to the segment has begun to slow,w

11、ith September 2024 showing just a modest 0.8%YoY visit increase.Discount&dollar stores,which attract lower-income shoppers compared to bothgrocery stores and superstores,have also begun lagging behind these segments invisit-per-location growth.In Q3,the average number of visits to each discount andd

12、ollar store location remained essentially flat compared to 2023(+0.2%),while visitsper location to superstores and grocery stores grew by 2.8%and 1.0%,respectively.As 2024 draws to a close,it is the latter segments,which appeal to shoppers withincomes closer to the nationwide median of$76.1K,which a

13、re seeing better YoYperformance.2024 Placer Labs,Inc.|More insights at placer.ai|4The deceleration doesnt mean that discount retailers are facing existential risk discount&dollar stores are still extremely strong and well-positioned with focusedofferings that resonate with consumers.The visitation d

14、ata does suggest,however,that future growth may need to focus on initiatives other large-scale fleet expansions.Some of these efforts will involve moving upmarket(see pOpShelf),some will focus onfleet optimization,and others may include new offerings and channels.Return of the middle anyone?Innovati

15、ve and Disruptive Value Shake Up Retail andDiningStill,in an environment where consumers have been facing the compounded effectsof rising prices,value remains paramount for many shoppers.And brands that havefound ways to let customers have their cake and eat it too enjoy specialty offeringsand eleva

16、ted experiences without breaking the bank have emerged as major visitwinners this year.2024 Placer Labs,Inc.|More insights at placer.ai|5Trader Joes Drives Visits With Private Label InnovationTrader Joes,in particular,has stood out as one of the leading retail brands forinnovative value in 2024,a tr

17、end that is expected to continue into 2025.Trader Joes dedicated fan base is positively addicted to the chains broad range ofhigh-quality specialty items.But by maintaining a much higher private label mix thanmost grocers approximately 80%,compared to an industry average of 25%to 30%the retailer is

18、also able to keep its pricing competitive.Trader Joes cultivatesconsumer excitement by constantly innovating its product line there are evenwebsites dedicated to showcasing the chains new offerings each season.In turn,Trader Joes enjoys much higher visits per square foot than the rest of the grocery

19、category:Over the past twelve months,Trader Joes drew a median 56 visits persquare foot compared to 23 for H-E-B,the second-strongest performer.Chilis Beats QSR at its Own GameCasual dining chain Chilis has also been a standout on the disruptive value front thispast year offering consumers a full-se

20、rvice dining experience at a quick-service pricepoint.2024 Placer Labs,Inc.|More insights at placer.ai|6Chilis launched its Big Smasher Burger on April 29th,2024,adding the item to itspopular 3 for Me offering,which includes an appetizer,entre,and drink for just$10.99 lower than than the average tic

21、ket at many quick-service restaurant chains.The innovative promotion,which has been further expanded since,continues to driveimpressive visitation trends.With food-away-from-home inflation continuing todecelerate,this strategy of offering deep discounts is likely to continue to be a keystory in 2025

22、.The Convenience MythConvenience is king,right?Well,probably not.If convenience truly were king,visitors would orient themselves tomaking fewer,longer visits to retailers to minimize the inconvenience of frequentgrocery trips and spend less time on the road.But analyzing the data suggests that,while

23、 consumers may want to save time,it is not always their chief concern.2024 Placer Labs,Inc.|More insights at placer.ai|7Looking at the superstore and grocery segments(among others)reveals that theproportion of visitors spending under 30 minutes at the grocery store is actuallyincreasing from 73.3%in

24、 Q3 2019 to 76.6%in Q3 2024.This indicates that shoppersare increasingly willing to make shorter trips to the store to pick up just a few items.At the same time,more consumers than ever are willing to travel farther to visitspecialty grocery chains in the search of specific products that make the vi

25、sitworthwhile.2024 Placer Labs,Inc.|More insights at placer.ai|8Cross visitation between chains is also increasing suggesting that shoppers arewilling to make multiple trips to find the products they want at the right price point.Between Q3 2023 and Q3 2024,the share of traditional grocery store vis

26、itors who alsovisited a Costco at least three times during the quarter grew across chains.2024 Placer Labs,Inc.|More insights at placer.ai|9Does this mean convenience doesnt matter?Of course not.Does it indicate thatvalue,quality and a love of specific products are becoming just as,if not more,impor

27、tant to shoppers?Yes.The implications here are very significant.If consumers are willing to go out of theirway for the right products at the right price points even at the expense ofconvenience then the retailers able to leverage these visit drivers will be bestpositioned to grow their reach conside

28、rably.The willingness of consumers to foregoconvenience considerations when the incentives are right also reinforces theever-growing importance of the in-store experience.So while convenience may still be within the royal family,the role of king is up forgrabs.2024 Placer Labs,Inc.|More insights at

29、placer.ai|10Serving Diners Quicker With AutomatizationChipotle Draws Crowds With AutocadoConvenience may not be everything,but the drive for quicker service has emerged asmore important than ever in the restaurant space.Diners want their fast food well,as fast as possible.And to meet this demand,qui

30、ck-service restaurants(QSRs)andfast-casual chains have been integrating more technology into their operations.Chipotle has been a leader in this regard,unveiling the“Autocado”robot at aHuntington Beach,California location last month.The robot can peel,pit,and chopavocados in record time,a major bene

31、fit for the Tex-Mex chain.And the Autocado seems to be paying off.The Huntington Beach location drew 10.0%more visits compared to the average Chipotle location in the Los Angeles-LongBeach-Anaheim metro area in Q3 2024.Visitors are visiting more frequently andgetting their food more quickly 43.9%of

32、visits at this location lasted 10 minutes orless,compared to 37.5%at other stores in the CBSA.Are diners flocking to this Chipotle location to watch the future of avocado choppingin action,or are they enticed by shorter wait times?Time will tell.But with workersable to focus on other aspects of food

33、 preparation and customer service,theinnovation appears to be resonating with diners.2024 Placer Labs,Inc.|More insights at placer.ai|11McDonalds Leans into Automation in TexasMcDonalds,too,has leaned into new technologies to streamline its service.The chaindebuted its first(almost)fully automated,t

34、akeaway-only restaurant in WhiteSettlement,TX in 2022 where orders are placed at kiosks or on app,and thendelivered to customers by robots.(The food is still prepared by humans.)Unsurprisingly,the restaurant drives faster visits than other local McDonaldslocations in Q3 2023,79.7%of visits to the ch

35、ain lasted less than 10 minutes,compared to 68.5%for other McDonalds in the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington,TX CBSA.But crucially,the automated location is also busier than other area McDonalds,garnering 16.8%more visits in Q3 than the chains CBSA-wide average.And thelocation draws a higher share of lat

36、e-night visits than other area McDonaldscustomers on the hunt for a late-night snack might be drawn to a restaurant thatoffers quick,interaction-free service.2024 Placer Labs,Inc.|More insights at placer.ai|12Evolving Retail Formats-Finding the Right FitChanging store formats is another key trend sh

37、aping retail in 2024.Whether byreducing box sizes to cut costs,make stores more accessible,or serve smaller growthmarkets or by going big with one-stop shops,retailers are reimagining store design.And the moves are resonating with consumers,driving visits while at the sameimproving efficiency.Macys

38、Draws Local Weekday Visitors With Small-Format StoresMacys,Inc.is one retailer that is leading the small-format charge this year.InFebruary 2024,Macys announced its“Bold New Chapter”a turnaround planincluding the downsizing of its traditional eponymous department store fleet and apivot towards small

39、er-format Macys locations.Macys has also continued to expandits highly-curated,small-format Bloomies concept,which features a mix ofestablished and trendy pop-up brands tailored to local preferences.And the data shows that this shift towards small format may be helping Macys drivevisits with more ac

40、cessible and targeted offerings that consumers can enjoy as they 2024 Placer Labs,Inc.|More insights at placer.ai|13go about their daily routines:In Q3 2024,Macys small-format stores drew a highershare of weekday visitors and of local customers(i.e.those coming from less thanseven miles away)than Ma

41、cys traditional stores.Harbor Freight Tools and Ace Hardware Serve Smaller Growth Markets WithLess Square FootageSmall-format stores are also making inroads in the home improvement category.Thepast few years have seen consumers across the U.S.migrating to smaller suburbanand rural markets and retail

42、ers like Harbor Freight Tools and Ace Hardware areharnessing their small-format advantage to accommodate these customers whilekeeping costs low.Harbor Freight tools and Ace Hardwares trade areas have a high degree of overlapwith some of the highest growth markets in the U.S.,many of which have popul

43、ationsunder 200K.And while it can be difficult to justify opening a Home Depot or Lowes inthese hubs both chains average more than 100,000 square feet per store HarborFreight Tools and Ace Hardwares smaller boxes,generally under 20,000 square feet,are a perfect fit.This has allowed both chains to ta

44、p into the smaller markets which are attractinggrowing shares of the population.And so while Home Depot and Lowes have seenmoderate visits declines on a YoY basis,Harbor Freight and Ace Hardware have seen 2024 Placer Labs,Inc.|More insights at placer.ai|14consistent YoY visit boosts since Q1 2024 ou

45、tperforming the wider category sinceearly 2023.Hy-Vee Bucks the Trend by Going BigAre smaller stores a better bet across the board?At the end of the day,the success ofsmaller-format stores depends largely on the category.For retail segments that haveseen visit trends slow since the pandemic home fur

46、nishings and consumerelectronics,for example smaller-format stores offer brands a more economical wayto serve their customers.Retailers have also used smaller-format stores to bettercurate their merchandise assortments for their most loyal customers,helping to driveimproved visit frequency.That said

47、,a handful of retailers,such as Hy-Vee,have recently bucked the trend ofsmaller-format stores.These large-format stores are often designed as destinationlocations Hy-Vees larger-format locations usually offer a full suite of amenitiesbeyond groceries,such as a food hall,eyewear kiosk,beauty departme

48、nt,and candyshop.Rather than focusing on smaller markets,these stores aim to attract visitorsfrom surrounding areas.2024 Placer Labs,Inc.|More insights at placer.ai|15Visit data for Hy-Vees large-format store in Gretna,Nebraska indicates that thislocation sees a higher percentage of weekend visits t

49、han other area locations 37.7%compared to 33.1%for the chains Omaha CBSA average as well as more visitslasting over 30 minutes(32.9%compared to 21.9%for the metro area as a whole).Forthese shoppers,large-format,one-stop shops offer a convenient and perhaps moreexciting alternative to traditionally s

50、ized grocery stores.The success of thelarge-format stores is another sign that though convenience isnt everything in 2024,itcertainly resonates especially when paired with added-value offerings.A Resurgence of Legacy BrandsMany retail brands have entrenched themselves in American culture and become

51、anextension of consumers identities.And while some of these previously ubiquitousbrands have disappeared over the years as the retail industry evolved,others havetransformed to keep pace with changing consumer needs and some have evencome back from the brink of extinction.And the quest for value not

52、withstanding,2024 has also seen the resurgence of many of these(decidedly non-off-price)legacybrands.In apparel specifically,Gap and Abercrombie&Fitch two brands that dominated thecultural zeitgeist of the 1990s and early 2000s before seeing their popularity decline 2024 Placer Labs,Inc.|More insigh

53、ts at placer.ai|16somewhat in the late aughts and 2010s may be staging a comeback.Bed Bath&Beyond,a leader in the home goods category,is also making a play at returning tophysical retail through partnerships.Anthropologie,another legacy player in womens fashion and home goods,is also onthe rise.Anth

54、ropologies distinctive aesthetic resonates deeply with consumersespecially women millennials aged 30 to 45.And by capturing the hearts of itscustomers,the retailer stands as a beacon for retailers that can hedge againstpromotional activity and still drive foot traffic growth.And visits to the chain

55、have been rising steadily.In Q4 2023,the chain experienced abigger holiday season foot traffic spike than pre-pandemic,drawing more overallvisits than in Q4 2019.And in Q3 2024,visits were higher than in Q3 2023.2024 Placer Labs,Inc.|More insights at placer.ai|17Meeting the Evolving Needs of Millenn

56、ialsAnd speaking of the 35 to 40 set the generation that all retailers are courting?Millennials.Does that sound familiar?Yes,because this is the same generationalcohort that retailers tried to target a decade ago.As millennials have aged into thefamily-formation stage of life,their retail needs have

57、 evolved,and the industry is nowprimed to meet them.Sams Club Draws Value-Conscious Singles and StartersFrom the revival of nostalgic brands like the Limited Too launch at Kohls towarehouse clubs expanding memberships to younger consumers as they move tosuburban and rural communities,there are myria

58、d examples of retailers reaching outto this cohort.And Sams Club offers a prime example of this trend.Over the past few years,millennials and Gen-Zers have emerged as major drivers ofmembership growth at Sams Club,drawn to the retailers value offerings and digitalupgrades like the clubs Scan&Go tech

59、nology.Over the same period,Sams Clubhas grown the share of“Singles and Starters”households in its captured market from6%above the national benchmark in Q3 2019 to 15%in Q3 2024.And with plans toinvolve customers in co-creating products for its private-label brand,Sams Club maycontinue to grow its m

60、arket share among this value-conscious but also discerningand optimistic demographic.2024 Placer Labs,Inc.|More insights at placer.ai|18Taco Bell Brings in Crowds With Value Nostalgia MenuMillennials are also now old enough to wax nostalgic about their youth and brandsare paying attention.This summe

61、r,Taco Bell leaned into nostalgia with a promotionbringing back iconic menu items from the 60s,70s,80s,and 90s all priced under$3.The promotion,which soft-launched at three Southern California locations in August,was so successful that the company is now offering the specials nationwide.The threeloc

62、ations that trialed the“Decades Menu”saw significant boosts in visits during thepromotional period compared to their daily averages for August.And people camefrom far and wide to sample the offerings with a higher proportion of visitorstraveling over seven miles to reach the stores while the items w

63、ere available.2024 Placer Labs,Inc.|More insights at placer.ai|19What Lies Ahead?Hot on the heels of a tumultuous 2023,2024s retail environment has certainly keptretailers on their toes.While embracing innovative value has helped some chainsthrive,other previously ascendant value segments,including

64、discount&dollar stores,may have reached their growth ceilings.Consumers clearly care about conveniencebut are willing to make multiple grocery stops to find what they need.At the sametime,legacy brands are plotting their comeback,while others are harnessing thepower of nostalgia to drive millennials and other consumers through their doors.2024 Placer Labs,Inc.|More insights at placer.ai|20